Big Data for Infectious Disease Surveillance and Modeling

Leveraging advances in data-driven deep learning methods for hybrid epidemic modeling

Mathematical modeling of epidemic dynamics is crucial to understand its underlying mechanisms, quantify important parameters, and make predictions that facilitate more informed decision-making. There are three major types of models: mechanistic models including the SEIR-type paradigm, alternative data-driven (DD) approaches, and hybrid models that combine mechanistic models with DD approaches. In this paper, we summarize our work in the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) for more than 12 rounds since early 2021 for informed decision support. We emphasize the importance of deep learning techniques for epidemic modeling via a flexible DD framework that substantially complements the mechanistic paradigm to evaluate various future epidemic scenarios. We start with a traditional curve-fitting approach to model cumulative COVID-19 based on the underlying SEIR-type mechanisms. Hospitalizations and deaths are modeled as binomial processes of cases and hospitalization, respectively. We further formulate two types of deep learning models based on multivariate long short term memory (LSTM) to address the challenges of more traditional DD models. The first LSTM is structurally similar to the curve fitting approach and assumes that hospitalizations and deaths are binomial processes of cases. Instead of using a predefined exponential curve, LSTM relies on the underlying data to identify the most appropriate functions, and is capable of capturing both long-term and short-term epidemic behaviors. We then relax the assumption of dependent inputs among cases, hospitalizations, and death. Another type of LSTM that handles all input time series as parallel signals, the independent multivariate LSTM, is developed. Independent multivariate LSTM can incorporate a wide range of data sources beyond traditional case-based epidemiological surveillance. The DD framework unleashes its potential in big data era with previously neglected heterogeneous surveillance data sources, such as syndromic, environment, genomic, serologic, infoveillance, and mobility data. DD approaches, especially LSTM, complement and integrate with the mechanistic modeling paradigm, provide a feasible alternative approach to model today's complex socio-epidemiological systems, and further leverage our ability to explore different scenarios for more informed decision-making during health emergencies.

Machine learning approach as an early warning system to prevent foodborne Salmonella outbreaks in northwestern Italy

Salmonellosis, one of the most common foodborne infections in Europe, is monitored by food safety surveillance programmes, resulting in the generation of extensive databases. By leveraging tree-based machine learning (ML) algorithms, we exploited data from food safety audits to predict spatiotemporal patterns of salmonellosis in northwestern Italy. Data on human cases confirmed in 2015-2018 (n = 1969) and food surveillance data collected in 2014-2018 were used to develop ML algorithms. We integrated the monthly municipal human incidence with 27 potential predictors, including the observed prevalence of Salmonella in food. We applied the tree regression, random forest and gradient boosting algorithms considering different scenarios and evaluated their predictivity in terms of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and R2. Using a similar dataset from the year 2019, spatiotemporal predictions and their relative sensitivities and specificities were obtained. Random forest and gradient boosting (R2 = 0.55, MAPE = 7.5%) outperformed the tree regression algorithm (R2 = 0.42, MAPE = 8.8%). Salmonella prevalence in food; spatial features; and monitoring efforts in ready-to-eat milk, fruits and vegetables, and pig meat products contributed the most to the models' predictivity, reducing the variance by 90.5%. Conversely, the number of positive samples obtained for specific food matrices minimally influenced the predictions (2.9%). Spatiotemporal predictions for 2019 showed sensitivity and specificity levels of 46.5% (due to the lack of some infection hotspots) and 78.5%, respectively. This study demonstrates the added value of integrating data from human and veterinary health services to develop predictive models of human salmonellosis occurrence, providing early warnings useful for mitigating foodborne disease impacts on public health.

Towards development of functional climate-driven early warning systems for climate-sensitive infectious diseases: Statistical models and recommendations

Climate, weather and environmental change have significantly influenced patterns of infectious disease transmission, necessitating the development of early warning systems to anticipate potential impacts and respond in a timely and effective way. Statistical modelling plays a pivotal role in understanding the intricate relationships between climatic factors and infectious disease transmission. For example, time series regression modelling and spatial cluster analysis have been employed to identify risk factors and predict spatial and temporal patterns of infectious diseases. Recently advanced spatio-temporal models and machine learning offer an increasingly robust framework for modelling uncertainty, which is essential in climate-driven disease surveillance due to the dynamic and multifaceted nature of the data. Moreover, Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques, including deep learning and neural networks, excel in capturing intricate patterns and hidden relationships within climate and environmental data sets. Web-based data has emerged as a powerful complement to other datasets encompassing climate variables and disease occurrences. However, given the complexity and non-linearity of climate-disease interactions, advanced techniques are required to integrate and analyse these diverse data to obtain more accurate predictions of impending outbreaks, epidemics or pandemics. This article presents an overview of an approach to creating climate-driven early warning systems with a focus on statistical model suitability and selection, along with recommendations for utilizing spatio-temporal and machine learning techniques. By addressing the limitations and embracing the recommendations for future research, we could enhance preparedness and response strategies, ultimately contributing to the safeguarding of public health in the face of evolving climate challenges.

Assessing the risk of malaria local transmission and re-introduction in China from pre-elimination to elimination: A systematic review

Assessing the risk of malaria local transmission and re-introduction is crucial for the preparation and implementation of an effective elimination campaign and the prevention of malaria re-introduction in China. Therefore, this review aims to evaluate the risk factors for malaria local transmission and re-introduction in China over the period of pre-elimination to elimination. Data were obtained from six databases searched for studies that assessed malaria local transmission risk before malaria elimination and re-introduction risk after the achievement of malaria elimination in China since the launch of the NMEP in 2010, employing the keywords "malaria" AND ("transmission" OR "re-introduction") and their synonyms. A total of 8,124 articles were screened and 53 articles describing 55 malaria risk assessment models in China from 2010 to 2023, including 40 models assessing malaria local transmission risk (72.7%) and 15 models assessing malaria re-introduction risk (27.3%). Factors incorporated in the 55 models were extracted and classified into six categories, including environmental and meteorological factors (39/55, 70.9%), historical epidemiology (35/55, 63.6%), vectorial factors (32/55, 58.2%), socio-demographic information (15/26, 53.8%), factors related to surveillance and response capacity (18/55, 32.7%), and population migration aspects (13/55, 23.6%). Environmental and meteorological factors as well as vectorial factors were most commonly incorporated in models assessing malaria local transmission risk (29/40, 72.5% and 21/40, 52.5%) and re-introduction risk (10/15, 66.7% and 11/15, 73.3%). Factors related to surveillance and response capacity and population migration were also important in malaria re-introduction risk models (9/15, 60%, and 6/15, 40.0%). A total of 18 models (18/55, 32.7%) reported the modeling performance. Only six models were validated internally and five models were validated externally. Of 53 incorporated studies, 45 studies had a quality assessment score of seven and above. Environmental and meteorological factors as well as vectorial factors play a significant role in malaria local transmission and re-introduction risk assessment. The factors related to surveillance and response capacity and population migration are more important in assessing malaria re-introduction risk. The internal and external validation of the existing models needs to be strengthened in future studies.

Exploring mobility data for enhancing HIV care engagement in Black/African American and Hispanic/Latinx individuals: a longitudinal observational study protocol

INTRODUCTION

Increasing engagement in HIV care among people living with HIV, especially those from Black/African American and Hispanic/Latinx communities, is an urgent need. Mobility data that measure individuals' movements over time in combination with sociostructural data (eg, crime, census) can potentially identify barriers and facilitators to HIV care engagement and can enhance public health surveillance and inform interventions.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The proposed work is a longitudinal observational cohort study aiming to enrol 400 Black/African American and Hispanic/Latinx individuals living with HIV in areas of the USA with high prevalence rates of HIV. Each participant will be asked to share at least 14 consecutive days of mobility data per month through the study app for 1 year and complete surveys at five time points (baseline, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months). The study app will collect Global Positioning System (GPS) data. These GPS data will be merged with other data sets containing information related to HIV care facilities, other healthcare, business and service locations, and sociostructural data. Machine learning and deep learning models will be used for data analysis to identify contextual predictors of HIV care engagement. The study includes interviews with stakeholders to evaluate the implementation and ethical concerns of using mobility data to increase engagement in HIV care. We seek to study the relationship between mobility patterns and HIV care engagement.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval has been obtained from the Institutional Review Board of the University of California, Irvine (#20205923). Collected data will be deidentified and securely stored. Dissemination of findings will be done through presentations, posters and research papers while collaborating with other research teams.

Addressing unforeseen public health risks via the use of sustainable system and process management

During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which was designated by the World Health Organization in January 2020 as a newly emerging coronavirus in 2019, and its variants have placed unbearable strain on the healthcare systems of various countries, with serious implications for sustainable development worldwide. Researchers have proposed several solutions, such as the use of digital technologies to improve prevention systems. However, the challenges of epidemic prevention and control failures have not been addressed fundamentally, as the key causes of epidemic failures (i.e., outbreaks) and strategies for process management have been neglected. The purpose of the current study is to address these issues by exploring the causes of epidemic prevention and control failure and targeting improvement strategies that combine system structure of epidemic prevention and process management. Specifically, following an exploration of the main reasons for COVID-19 prevention and control failures through a case study of two tertiary hospitals, this paper outlines a targeted prevention and control system based on triangular validation and a loosely coupled process management framework and verifies the expected results using simulation methods together with statistical data on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan, China. The findings not only advance the development of epidemic risk prevention and control theory, especially the complementary nature of IT applications and process management in the field of epidemic risk prevention and control, but also provide guidance on the innovation and implementation of epidemic prevention and control systems and process management and recommendations for countries to promote sustainable development from a health-focused perspective.

PanDa Game: Optimized Privacy-Preserving Publishing of Individual-Level Pandemic Data Based on a Game Theoretic Model

Sharing individual-level pandemic data is essential for accelerating the understanding of a disease. For example, COVID-19 data have been widely collected to support public health surveillance and research. In the United States, these data are typically de-identified before publication to protect the privacy of the corresponding individuals. However, current data publishing approaches for this type of data, such as those adopted by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), have not flexed over time to account for the dynamic nature of infection rates. Thus, the policies generated by these strategies have the potential to both raise privacy risks or overprotect the data and impair the data utility (or usability). To optimize the tradeoff between privacy risk and data utility, we introduce a game theoretic model that adaptively generates policies for the publication of individual-level COVID-19 data according to infection dynamics. We model the data publishing process as a two-player Stackelberg game between a data publisher and a data recipient and then search for the best strategy for the publisher. In this game, we consider 1) average performance of predicting future case counts; and 2) mutual information between the original data and the released data. We use COVID-19 case data from Vanderbilt University Medical Center from March 2020 to December 2021 to demonstrate the effectiveness of the new model. The results indicate that the game theoretic model outperforms all state-of-the-art baseline approaches, including those adopted by CDC, while maintaining low privacy risk. We further perform an extensive sensitivity analyses to show that our findings are robust to order-of-magnitude parameter fluctuations.

Sentiment analysis of epidemiological surveillance reports on COVID-19 in Greece using machine learning models

The present research deals with sentiment analysis performed with Microsoft Azure Machine Learning Studio to classify Facebook posts on the Greek National Public Health Organization (EODY) from November 2021 to January 2022 during the pandemic. Positive, negative and neutral sentiments were included after processing 300 reviews. This approach involved analyzing the words appearing in the comments and exploring the sentiments related to daily surveillance reports of COVID-19 published on the EODY Facebook page. Moreover, machine learning algorithms were implemented to predict the classification of sentiments. This research assesses the efficiency of a few popular machine learning models, which is one of the initial efforts in Greece in this domain. People have negative sentiments toward COVID surveillance reports. Words with the highest frequency of occurrence include government, vaccinated people, unvaccinated, telephone communication, health measures, virus, COVID-19 rapid/molecular tests, and of course, COVID-19. The experimental results disclose additionally that two classifiers, namely two class Neural Network and two class Bayes Point Machine, achieved high sentiment analysis accuracy and F1 score, particularly 87% and over 35%. A significant limitation of this study may be the need for more comparison with other research attempts that identified the sentiments of the EODY surveillance reports of COVID in Greece. Machine learning models can provide critical information combating public health hazards and enrich communication strategies and proactive actions in public health issues and opinion management during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Anomaly Detection in Endemic Disease Surveillance Data Using Machine Learning Techniques

Disease surveillance is used to monitor ongoing control activities, detect early outbreaks, and inform intervention priorities and policies. However, data from disease surveillance that could be used to support real-time decisionmaking remain largely underutilised. Using the Brazilian Amazon malaria surveillance dataset as a case study, in this paper we explore the potential for unsupervised anomaly detection machine learning techniques to discover signals of epidemiological interest. We found that our models were able to provide an early indication of outbreak onset, outbreak peaks, and change points in the proportion of positive malaria cases. Specifically, the sustained rise in malaria in the Brazilian Amazon in 2016 was flagged by several models. We found that no single model detected all anomalies across all health regions. Because of this, we provide the minimum number of machine learning models top-k models) to maximise the number of anomalies detected across different health regions. We discovered that the top three models that maximise the coverage of the number and types of anomalies detected across the thirteen health regions are principal component analysis, stochastic outlier selection, and the minimum covariance determinant. Anomaly detection is a potentially valuable approach to discovering patterns of epidemiological importance when confronted with a large volume of data across space and time. Our exploratory approach can be replicated for other diseases and locations to inform monitoring, timely interventions, and actions towards the goal of controlling endemic disease.

Crime, inequality and public health: a survey of emerging trends in urban data science

Urban agglomerations are constantly and rapidly evolving ecosystems, with globalization and increasing urbanization posing new challenges in sustainable urban development well summarized in the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The advent of the digital age generated by modern alternative data sources provides new tools to tackle these challenges with spatio-temporal scales that were previously unavailable with census statistics. In this review, we present how new digital data sources are employed to provide data-driven insights to study and track (i) urban crime and public safety; (ii) socioeconomic inequalities and segregation; and (iii) public health, with a particular focus on the city scale.

Spatial distribution and determinants of childhood vaccination refusal in the United States

Parental refusal and delay of childhood vaccination has increased in recent years in the United States. This phenomenon challenges maintenance of herd immunity and increases the risk of outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases. We examine US county-level vaccine refusal for patients under five years of age collected during the period 2012-2015 from an administrative healthcare dataset. We model these data with a Bayesian zero-inflated negative binomial regression model to capture social and political processes that are associated with vaccine refusal, as well as factors that affect our measurement of vaccine refusal. Our work highlights fine-scale socio-demographic characteristics associated with vaccine refusal nationally, finds that spatial clustering in refusal can be explained by such factors, and has the potential to aid in the development of targeted public health strategies for optimizing vaccine uptake.

Spatiotemporal Trends in Self-Reported Mask-Wearing Behavior in the United States: Analysis of a Large Cross-sectional Survey

BACKGROUND

Face mask wearing has been identified as an effective strategy to prevent the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, yet mask mandates were never imposed nationally in the United States. This decision resulted in a patchwork of local policies and varying compliance, potentially generating heterogeneities in the local trajectories of COVID-19 in the United States. Although numerous studies have investigated the patterns and predictors of masking behavior nationally, most suffer from survey biases and none have been able to characterize mask wearing at fine spatial scales across the United States through different phases of the pandemic.

OBJECTIVE

Urgently needed is a debiased spatiotemporal characterization of mask-wearing behavior in the United States. This information is critical to further assess the effectiveness of masking, evaluate the drivers of transmission at different time points during the pandemic, and guide future public health decisions through, for example, forecasting disease surges.

METHODS

We analyzed spatiotemporal masking patterns in over 8 million behavioral survey responses from across the United States, starting in September 2020 through May 2021. We adjusted for sample size and representation using binomial regression models and survey raking, respectively, to produce county-level monthly estimates of masking behavior. We additionally debiased self-reported masking estimates using bias measures derived by comparing vaccination data from the same survey to official records at the county level. Lastly, we evaluated whether individuals' perceptions of their social environment can serve as a less biased form of behavioral surveillance than self-reported data.

RESULTS

We found that county-level masking behavior was spatially heterogeneous along an urban-rural gradient, with mask wearing peaking in winter 2021 and declining sharply through May 2021. Our results identified regions where targeted public health efforts could have been most effective and suggest that individuals' frequency of mask wearing may be influenced by national guidance and disease prevalence. We validated our bias correction approach by comparing debiased self-reported mask-wearing estimates with community-reported estimates, after addressing issues of a small sample size and representation. Self-reported behavior estimates were especially prone to social desirability and nonresponse biases, and our findings demonstrated that these biases can be reduced if individuals are asked to report on community rather than self behaviors.

CONCLUSIONS

Our work highlights the importance of characterizing public health behaviors at fine spatiotemporal scales to capture heterogeneities that may drive outbreak trajectories. Our findings also emphasize the need for a standardized approach to incorporating behavioral big data into public health response efforts. Even large surveys are prone to bias; thus, we advocate for a social sensing approach to behavioral surveillance to enable more accurate estimates of health behaviors. Finally, we invite the public health and behavioral research communities to use our publicly available estimates to consider how bias-corrected behavioral estimates may improve our understanding of protective behaviors during crises and their impact on disease dynamics.

Artificial intelligence and high-dimensional technologies in the theragnosis of systemic lupus erythematosus

Systemic lupus erythematosus is a complex, systemic autoimmune disease characterised by immune dysregulation. Pathogenesis is multifactorial, contributing to clinical heterogeneity and posing challenges for diagnosis and treatment. Although strides in treatment options have been made in the past 15 years, with the US Food and Drug Administration approval of belimumab in 2011, there are still many patients who have inadequate responses to therapy. A better understanding of underlying disease mechanisms with a holistic and multiparametric approach is required to improve clinical assessment and treatment. This Review discusses the evolution of genomics, epigenomics, transcriptomics, and proteomics in the study of systemic lupus erythematosus and ways to amalgamate these silos of data with a systems-based approach while also discussing ways to strengthen the overall process. These mechanistic insights will facilitate the discovery of functionally relevant biomarkers to guide rational therapeutic selection to improve patient outcomes.

ASAS-NANP symposium: mathematical modeling in animal nutrition: agent-based modeling for livestock systems: the mechanics of development and application

Over the last three decades, agent-based modeling/model (ABM) has been one of the most powerful and valuable simulation-based decision modeling techniques used to study the complex dynamic interactions between animals and their environment. ABM is a relatively new modeling technique in the animal research arena, with immense potential for routine decision-making in livestock systems. We describe ABM's fundamental characteristics for developing intelligent modeling systems, exemplify its use for livestock production, and describe commonly used software for designing and developing ABM. After that, we discuss several aspects of the developmental mechanics of an ABM, including (1) how livestock researchers can conceptualize and design a model, (2) the main components of an ABM, (3) different statistical methods of analyzing the outputs, and (4) verification, validation, and replication of an ABM. Then, we perform an overall analysis of the utilities of ABM in different subsystems of the livestock systems ranging from epidemiological prediction to nutritional management to livestock market dynamics. Finally, we discuss the concept of hybrid intelligent models (i.e., merging real-time data streams with intelligent ABM), which have applications in artificial intelligence-based decision-making for precision livestock farming. ABM captures individual agents' characteristics, interactions, and the emergent properties that arise from these interactions; thus, animal scientists can benefit from ABM in multiple ways, including understanding system-level outcomes, analyzing agent behaviors, exploring different scenarios, and evaluating policy interventions. Several platforms for building ABM exist (e.g., NetLogo, Repast J, and AnyLogic), but they have unique features making one more suitable for solving specific problems. The strengths of ABM can be combined with other modeling approaches, including artificial intelligence, allowing researchers to advance our understanding further and contribute to sustainable livestock management practices. There are many ways to develop and apply mathematical models in livestock production that might assist with sustainable development. However, users must be experienced when choosing the appropriate modeling technique and computer platform (i.e., modeling development tool) that will facilitate the adoption of mathematical models by certifying that the model is field-ready and versatile enough for untrained users.

A novel textual track-data-based approach for estimating individual infection risk of COVID-19

With the recurrence of infectious diseases caused by coronaviruses, which pose a significant threat to human health, there is an unprecedented urgency to devise an effective method to identify and assess who is most at risk of contracting these diseases. China has successfully controlled the spread of COVID-19 through the disclosure of track data belonging to diagnosed patients. This paper proposes a novel textual track-data-based approach for individual infection risk measurement. The proposed approach is divided into three steps. First, track features are extracted from track data to build a general portrait of COVID-19 patients. Then, based on the extracted track features, we construct an infection risk indicator system to calculate the infection risk index (IRI). Finally, individuals are divided into different infection risk categories based on the IRI values. By doing so, the proposed approach can determine the risk of an individual contracting COVID-19, which facilitates the identification of high-risk populations. Thus, the proposed approach can be used for risk prevention and control of COVID-19. In the empirical analysis, we comprehensively collected 9455 pieces of track data from 20 January 2020 to 30 July 2020, covering 32 provinces/provincial municipalities in China. The empirical results show that the Chinese COVID-19 patients have six key features that indicate infection risk: place, region, close-contact person, contact manner, travel mode, and symptom. The IRI values for all 9455 patients vary from 0 to 43.19. Individuals are classified into the following five infection risk categories: low, moderate-low, moderate, moderate-high, and high risk.

Internet search data with spatiotemporal analysis in infectious disease surveillance: Challenges and perspectives

With the rapid development of the internet, the application of internet search data has been seen as a novel data source to offer timely infectious disease surveillance intelligence. Moreover, the advancements in internet search data, which include rich information at both space and time scales, enable investigators to sufficiently consider the spatiotemporal uncertainty, which can benefit researchers to better monitor infectious diseases and epidemics. In the present study, we present the necessary groundwork and critical appraisal of the use of internet search data and spatiotemporal analysis approaches in infectious disease surveillance by updating the current stage of knowledge on them. The study also provides future directions for researchers to investigate the combination of internet search data with the spatiotemporal analysis in infectious disease surveillance. Internet search data demonstrate a promising potential to offer timely epidemic intelligence, which can be seen as the prerequisite for improving infectious disease surveillance.

Predicting infectious disease for biopreparedness and response: A systematic review of machine learning and deep learning approaches

The complex, unpredictable nature of pathogen occurrence has required substantial efforts to accurately predict infectious diseases (IDs). With rising popularity of Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL) techniques combined with their unique ability to uncover connections between large amounts of diverse data, we conducted a PRISMA systematic review to investigate advances in ID prediction for human and animal diseases using ML and DL. This review included the type of IDs modeled, ML and DL techniques utilized, geographical distribution, prediction tasks performed, input features utilized, spatial and temporal scales, error metrics used, computational efficiency, uncertainty quantification, and missing data handling methods. Among 237 relevant articles published between January 2001 and May 2021, highly contagious diseases in humans were most often represented, including COVID-19 (37.1%), influenza/influenza-like illnesses (9.3%), dengue (8.9%), and malaria (5.1%). Out of 37 diseases identified, 51.4% were zoonotic, 37.8% were human-only, and 8.1% were animal-only, with only 1.6% economically significant, non-zoonotic livestock diseases. Despite the number of zoonoses, 86.5% of articles modeled humans whereas only a few articles (5.1%) contained more than one host species. Eastern Asia (32.5%), North America (17.7%), and Southern Asia (13.1%) were the most represented locations. Frequent approaches included tree-based ML (38.4%) and feed-forward neural networks (26.6%). Articles predicted temporal incidence (66.7%), disease risk (38.0%), and/or spatial movement (31.2%). Less than 10% of studies addressed uncertainty quantification, computational efficiency, and missing data, which are essential to operational use and deployment. This study highlights trends and gaps in ML and DL for ID prediction, providing guidelines for future works to better support biopreparedness and response. To fully utilize ML and DL for improved ID forecasting, models should include the full disease ecology in a One-Health context, important food and agricultural diseases, underrepresented hotspots, and important metrics required for operational deployment.

Healthcare-Associated Infections (HAIs): Challenges and Measures Taken by the Radiology Department to Control Infection Transmission

Infections contracted during healthcare delivery in a hospital or ambulatory setting are collectively referred to as healthcare-associated infections (HAIs). Healthcare workers and patients alike are vulnerable to serious problems as a result of the risk of HAIs. In the healthcare system, HAIs are considered among the most common and serious health problems. However, the occurrence of HAIs differs between different types of clinical departments within the hospital. Recently, the risk of HAIs has been increasing in radiology departments globally due to the central role of radiology in guiding clinical decisions for the diagnosis, treatment, and monitoring of different diseases from almost all medical specialties. The radiology department is particularly vulnerable to HAIs because it serves as a transit hub for infected patients, non-infected patients, and healthcare workers. Furthermore, as the number of patients referred to radiology and the length of patient contact time has increased, thanks to modern imaging techniques such as computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging, the risk of HAIs has also increased significantly. With the increasing use of interventional radiological procedures, patients and healthcare workers face a potentially greater risk of contracting HAIs due to the invasive nature of such procedures. Although not exhaustive, we attempted through a literature search to provide a general overview of infection prevention and control practices, address HAIs in the radiology departments, and highlight the challenges and measures taken to control infection transmission in the radiology departments.

Machine learning based regional epidemic transmission risks precaution in digital society

The contact and interaction of human is considered to be one of the important factors affecting the epidemic transmission, and it is critical to model the heterogeneity of individual activities in epidemiological risk assessment. In digital society, massive data makes it possible to implement this idea on large scale. Here, we use the mobile phone signaling to track the users' trajectories and construct contact network to describe the topology of daily contact between individuals dynamically. We show the spatiotemporal contact features of about 7.5 million mobile phone users during the outbreak of COVID-19 in Shanghai, China. Furthermore, the individual feature matrix extracted from contact network enables us to carry out the extreme event learning and predict the regional transmission risk, which can be further decomposed into the risk due to the inflow of people from epidemic hot zones and the risk due to people close contacts within the observing area. This method is much more flexible and adaptive, and can be taken as one of the epidemic precautions before the large-scale outbreak with high efficiency and low cost.

Early Detection of COVID-19 outbreaks using Textual Analysis of Electronic Medical Records

Purpose

Our objective was to develop a tool promoting early detection of COVID-19 cases by focusing epidemiological investigations and PCR examinations during a period of limited testing capabilities.

Methods

We developed an algorithm for analyzing medical records recorded by healthcare providers in the Israeli Defense Forces. The algorithm utilized textual analysis to detect patients presenting with suspicious symptoms and was tested among 92 randomly selected units. Detection of a potential cluster of patients in a unit prompted a focused epidemiological investigation aided by data provided by the algorithm.

Results

During a month of follow up, the algorithm has flagged 17 of the units for investigation. The subsequent epidemiological investigations led to the testing of 78 persons and the detection of eight cases in four clusters that were previously gone unnoticed. The resulting positive test rate of 10.25% was five time higher than the IDF average at the time of the study. No cases of COVID-19 in the examined units were missed by the algorithm.

Conclusions

This study depicts the successful development and large scale deployment of a textual analysis based algorithm for early detection of COVID-19 cases, demonstrating the potential of natural language processing of medical text as a tool for promoting public health.

Epidemiology of Antimicrobial Resistance Among Blood and Respiratory Specimens in the United States Using Genotypic Analysis from a Cloud-Based Population Surveillance Network

Background

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) surveillance is critical in informing strategies for infection control in slowing the spread of resistant organisms and for antimicrobial stewardship in the care of patients. However, significant challenges exist in timely and comprehensive AMR surveillance.

Methods

Using BioFire Pneumonia and Blood Culture 2 Panels data from BioFire Syndromic Trends (Trend), a cloud-based population surveillance network, we described the detection rate of AMR among a US cohort. Data were included from 2019 to 2021 for Gram-positive and -negative organisms and their related AMR genomic-resistant determinants as well as for detections of Candida auris. Regional and between panel AMR detection rate differences were compared. In addition, AMR codetections and detection rate per organism were evaluated for Gram-negative organisms.

Results

A total of 26 912 tests were performed, primarily in the Midwest. Overall, AMR detection rate was highest in the South and more common for respiratory specimens than blood. methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus and vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus detection rates were 34.9% and 15.9%, respectively, whereas AMR for Gram-negative organisms was lower with 7.0% CTX-M and 2.9% carbapenemases. In addition, 10 mcr-1 and 4 C auris detections were observed. For Gram-negative organisms, Klebsiella pneumoniae and Escherichia coli were most likely to be detected with an AMR gene, and of Gram-negative organisms, K pneumoniae was most often associated with 2 or more AMR genes.

Conclusions

Our study provides important in-depth evaluation of the epidemiology of AMR among respiratory and blood specimens for Gram-positive and -negative organism in the United States. The Trend surveillance network allows for near real-time surveillance of AMR.

Spatial aggregation choice in the era of digital and administrative surveillance data

Traditional disease surveillance is increasingly being complemented by data from non-traditional sources like medical claims, electronic health records, and participatory syndromic data platforms. As non-traditional data are often collected at the individual-level and are convenience samples from a population, choices must be made on the aggregation of these data for epidemiological inference. Our study seeks to understand the influence of spatial aggregation choice on our understanding of disease spread with a case study of influenza-like illness in the United States. Using U.S. medical claims data from 2002 to 2009, we examined the epidemic source location, onset and peak season timing, and epidemic duration of influenza seasons for data aggregated to the county and state scales. We also compared spatial autocorrelation and tested the relative magnitude of spatial aggregation differences between onset and peak measures of disease burden. We found discrepancies in the inferred epidemic source locations and estimated influenza season onsets and peaks when comparing county and state-level data. Spatial autocorrelation was detected across more expansive geographic ranges during the peak season as compared to the early flu season, and there were greater spatial aggregation differences in early season measures as well. Epidemiological inferences are more sensitive to spatial scale early on during U.S. influenza seasons, when there is greater heterogeneity in timing, intensity, and geographic spread of the epidemics. Users of non-traditional disease surveillance should carefully consider how to extract accurate disease signals from finer-scaled data for early use in disease outbreaks.

Addressing the socioeconomic divide in computational modeling for infectious diseases

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted how structural social inequities fundamentally shape disease dynamics. Here, the authors provide a set of practical and methodological recommendations to address socioeconomic vulnerabilities in epidemic models.

Animal care professionals' practice towards zoonotic disease management and infection control practice in selected districts of Wolaita zone, Southern Ethiopia

Veterinary practices or activities expose professionals to occupational hazards, including infection with zoonotic diseases, during contact with animals. To assess animal care professionals' practice towards zoonotic disease management and infection control practices (ICPs) in selected areas of the Wolaita zone, a cross-sectional survey was conducted using a structured questionnaire survey. A total of 287 animal care professionals were registered by the Wolaita zone livestock and fishery office and working in nine different districts of the Wolaita zone. Of these, 135 animal care professionals working across nine different districts of the Wolaita zone were interviewed in the current study. The survey showed that about 55% (74/135) of respondents were animal health assistants, and about 84% (114/135) of the professionals were males. In terms of utilization of ICP, about 72% of professionals routinely wash their hands before eating and drinking in their workplace. However, approximately 7% of professionals sometimes eat or drink at the workplace. Additionally, almost 32% of the professionals always wash their hands between patient contacts. In the survey, approximately 49% of veterinarians said they sterilized and reused disposable needles. When dealing with an animal suspected of carrying a zoonotic infection, nearly 25% of experts isolate or quarantine diseased animals, and only about 25% of the experts remove their personal protective equipment (PPE) before interacting with other animals. Approximately 62% of responders said they used outwear (PPE) when carrying out surgery and 28% when performing a necropsy. Nearly 39% of veterinarians reported using gloves and gowns when assisting with parturition or handling conception products, and around 36% of practitioners utilized proper PPE when handling blood samples. Our findings show that the veterinary community in the Wolaita Zone's selected sites needs to be educated about ICPs regularly. A better understanding of the risk of zoonotic disease exposure, as well as alternatives for reducing this risk and liability problems, may encourage the use of infection control measures. Successful partnerships across multiple professional sectors should use a One Health approach that includes stakeholders from the human, animal, and environmental categories.

Infectious diseases prevention and control using an integrated health big data system in China

BACKGROUND

The Yinzhou Center for Disease Prevention and Control (CDC) in China implemented an integrated health big data platform (IHBDP) that pooled health data from healthcare providers to combat the spread of infectious diseases, such as dengue fever and pulmonary tuberculosis (TB), and to identify gaps in vaccination uptake among migrant children.

METHODS

IHBDP is composed of medical data from clinics, electronic health records, residents' annual medical checkup and immunization records, as well as administrative data, such as student registries. We programmed IHBDP to automatically scan for and detect dengue and TB carriers, as well as identify migrant children with incomplete immunization according to a comprehensive set of screening criteria developed by public health and medical experts. We compared the effectiveness of the big data screening with existing traditional screening methods.

RESULTS

IHBDP successfully identified six cases of dengue out of a pool of 3972 suspected cases, whereas the traditional method only identified four cases (which were also detected by IHBDP). For TB, IHBDP identified 288 suspected cases from a total of 43,521 university students, in which three cases were eventually confirmed to be TB carriers through subsequent follow up CT or T-SPOT.TB tests. As for immunization screenings, IHBDP identified 240 migrant children with incomplete immunization, but the traditional door-to-door screening method only identified 20 ones.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study has demonstrated the effectiveness of using IHBDP to detect both acute and chronic infectious disease patients and identify children with incomplete immunization as compared to traditional screening methods.

The Use of Big Data via 5G to Alleviate Symptoms of Acute Stress Disorder Caused by Quarantine Measures

This article investigates the role of Big Data in situations of psychological stress such as during the recent pandemic caused by the COVID-19 health crisis. Quarantine measures, which are necessary to mitigate pandemic risk, are causing severe stress symptoms to the human body including mental health. We highlight the most common impact factors and the uncertainty connected with COVID-19, quarantine measures, and the role of Big Data, namely, how Big Data can help alleviate or mitigate these effects by comparing the status quo of current technology capabilities with the potential effects of an increase of digitalization on mental health. We find that, while Big Data helps in the pre-assessment of potentially endangered persons, it also proves to be an efficient tool in alleviating the negative psychological effects of quarantine. We find evidence of the positive effects of Big Data on human health conditions by assessing the effect of internet use on mental health in 173 countries. We found positive effects in 110 countries with 90 significant results. However, increased use of digital media and exclusive exposure to digital connectivity causes negative long-term effects such as a decline in social empathy, which creates a form of psychological isolation, causing symptoms of acute stress disorder.

Public health surveillance in the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs: evaluation of the Praedico surveillance system

Background

Early threat detection and situational awareness are vital to achieving a comprehensive and accurate view of health-related events for federal, state, and local health agencies. Key to this are public health and syndromic surveillance systems that can analyze large data sets to discover patterns, trends, and correlations of public health significance. In 2020, Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) evaluated its public health surveillance system and identified areas for improvement.

Methods

Using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Guidelines for Evaluating Public Health Surveillance Systems, we assessed the ability of the Praedico Surveillance System to perform public health surveillance for a variety of health issues and evaluated its performance compared to an enterprise data solution (VA Corporate Data Warehouse), legacy surveillance system (VA ESSENCE) and a national, collaborative syndromic surveillance platform (CDC NSSP BioSense).

Results

Review of system attributes found that the system was simple, flexible, and stable. Representativeness, timeliness, sensitivity, and Predictive Value Positive were acceptable but could be further improved. Data quality issues and acceptability present challenges that potentially affect the overall usefulness of the system.

Conclusions

Praedico is a customizable surveillance and data analytics platform built on big data technologies. Functionality is straightforward, with rapid query generation and runtimes. Data can be graphed, mapped, analyzed, and shared with key decision makers and stakeholders. Evaluation findings suggest that future development and system enhancements should focus on addressing Praedico data quality issues and improving user acceptability. Because Praedico is designed to handle big data queries and work with data from a variety of sources, it could be enlisted as a tool for interdepartmental and interagency collaboration and public health data sharing. We suggest that future system evaluations include measurements of value and effectiveness along with additional organizations and functional assessments.

Reflections on pandemic governance in China and its implications to future 5G strategy

COVID-19 pandemic and its repercussions came as a surprise to nations including China. However, the unique central governance system of the country enhanced its ability to promulgate laws and guidelines which caused rapid changes across all aspects of its development. The result from this was a swift implementation of initiatives that ensured strict safety protocols to reduce the spread of COVID-19, generated advanced analytical technological systems to control the virus, and created new markets for some new technologies. Hence, the enormous growth of 5G contributed a lot to the economic recovery of China. Given its potential shown during the pandemic, the 5G strategy was considered as the most important attempt to face the challenges in post-COVID-19 by the Chinese government. This chapter outlines some of the structures, policy outcomes, and results during the pandemic and makes recommendations for curtailing future challenges.

Role of big geospatial data in the COVID-19 crisis

The outbreak of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has infected 4 million people worldwide and has caused more than 300,000 deaths worldwide. With infection and death rates on rise, COVID-19 poses a serious threat to social functioning, human health, economies, and geopolitics. Geographic information systems and big geospatial technologies have come to the forefront in this fight against COVID-19 by playing an important role by integrating multisourced data, enhanced and rapid analytics of mapping services, location analytics, and spatial tracking of confirmed, forecasting transmission trajectories, spatial clustering of risk on epidemiologic levels, public awareness on the elimination of panic spread and decision-making support for the government and research institutions for effective prevention and control of COVID-19 cases. Big geospatial data has turned itself as the major support system for governments in dealing with this global healthcare crisis because of its advanced and innovative technological capabilities from preparation of data to modeling the results with quick and large accessibility to every spatial scale. This robust data-driven system using the accurate and prediction geoanalysis is being widely used by governments and public health institutions interfaced with both health and nonhealth digital data repositories for mining the individual and regional datasets for breaking the transmission chain. Profiling of confirmed cases on the basis of location and temporality and then visualizing them effectively coupled with behavioral and critical geographic variables such as mobility patterns, demographic data, and population density enhance the predictive analytics of big geospatial data. With the intersection of artificial intelligence, geospatial data enables real-time visualization and syndromic surveillance of epidemic data based on spatiotemporal dynamics and the data are then accurately geopositioned. This chapter aims to reflect on the relevance of big geospatial data and health geoinformatics in containing and preventing the further spread of COVID-19 and how countries and research organizations around the world have used it as accurate, fast, and comprehensive dataset in their containing strategy and management of this public health crisis. China and Taiwan are used as case studies as in how these countries have applied the computational architecture of big geospatial data and location analytics surveillance techniques for prediction and monitoring of COVID-19-positive cases.

OUP accepted manuscript

Objective

Supporting public health research and the public’s situational awareness during a pandemic requires continuous dissemination of infectious disease surveillance data. Legislation, such as the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act of 1996 and recent state-level regulations, permits sharing deidentified person-level data; however, current deidentification approaches are limited. Namely, they are inefficient, relying on retrospective disclosure risk assessments, and do not flex with changes in infection rates or population demographics over time. In this paper, we introduce a framework to dynamically adapt deidentification for near-real time sharing of person-level surveillance data.

Materials and Methods

The framework leverages a simulation mechanism, capable of application at any geographic level, to forecast the reidentification risk of sharing the data under a wide range of generalization policies. The estimates inform weekly, prospective policy selection to maintain the proportion of records corresponding to a group size less than 11 (PK11) at or below 0.1. Fixing the policy at the start of each week facilitates timely dataset updates and supports sharing granular date information. We use August 2020 through October 2021 case data from Johns Hopkins University and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to demonstrate the framework’s effectiveness in maintaining the PK11 threshold of 0.01.

Results

When sharing COVID-19 county-level case data across all US counties, the framework’s approach meets the threshold for 96.2% of daily data releases, while a policy based on current deidentification techniques meets the threshold for 32.3%.

Conclusion

Periodically adapting the data publication policies preserves privacy while enhancing public health utility through timely updates and sharing epidemiologically critical features.

Forecasting Dengue Hotspots Associated With Variation in Meteorological Parameters Using Regression and Time Series Models

For forecasting the spread of dengue, monitoring climate change and its effects specific to the disease is necessary. Dengue is one of the most rapidly spreading vector-borne infectious diseases. This paper proposes a forecasting model for predicting dengue incidences considering climatic variability across nine cities of Maharashtra state of India over 10 years. The work involves the collection of five climatic factors such as mean minimum temperature, mean maximum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, and mean wind speed for 10 years. Monthly incidences of dengue for the same locations are also collected. Different regression models such as random forest regression, decision trees regression, support vector regress, multiple linear regression, elastic net regression, and polynomial regression are used. Time-series forecasting models such as holt's forecasting, autoregressive, Moving average, ARIMA, SARIMA, and Facebook prophet are implemented and compared to forecast the dengue outbreak accurately. The research shows that humidity and mean maximum temperature are the major climate factors and exhibit strong positive and negative correlation, respectively, with dengue incidences for all locations of Maharashtra state. Mean minimum temperature and rainfall are moderately positively correlated with dengue incidences. Mean wind speed is a less significant factor and is weakly negatively correlated with dengue incidences. Root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and R square error (R ²) evaluation metrics are used to compare the performance of the prediction model. Random Forest Regression is the best-fit regression model for five out of nine cities, while Support Vector Regression is for two cities. Facebook Prophet Model is the best fit time series forecasting model for six out of nine cities. Based on the prediction, Mumbai, Thane, Nashik, and Pune are the high-risk regions, especially in August, September, and October. The findings exhibit an effective early warning system that would predict the outbreak of other infectious diseases. It will help the relevant authorities to take accurate preventive measures.

NextGen Public Health Surveillance and the Internet of Things (IoT)

Recent advances in technology have led to the rise of new-age data sources (e.g., Internet of Things (IoT), wearables, social media, and mobile health). IoT is becoming ubiquitous, and data generation is accelerating globally. Other health research domains have used IoT as a data source, but its potential has not been thoroughly explored and utilized systematically in public health surveillance. This article summarizes the existing literature on the use of IoT as a data source for surveillance. It presents the shortcomings of current data sources and how NextGen data sources, including the large-scale applications of IoT, can meet the needs of surveillance. The opportunities and challenges of using these modern data sources in public health surveillance are also explored. These IoT data ecosystems are being generated with minimal effort by the device users and benefit from high granularity, objectivity, and validity. Advances in computing are now bringing IoT-based surveillance into the realm of possibility. The potential advantages of IoT data include high-frequency, high volume, zero effort data collection methods, with a potential to have syndromic surveillance. In contrast, the critical challenges to mainstream this data source within surveillance systems are the huge volume and variety of data, fusing data from multiple devices to produce a unified result, and the lack of multidisciplinary professionals to understand the domain and analyze the domain data accordingly.

Non-Communicable Diseases and Social Media: A Heart Disease Symptoms Application

Social media platforms have become ubiquitous and allow users to share information in real-time. Our study uses data analytics as an approach to explore non-communicable diseases on social media platforms and to identify trends and patterns of related disease symptoms. Exploring epidemiological patterns of non-communicable diseases is vital given that they have become prevalent in low-income communities, accounting for about 38 million deaths worldwide. We collected data related to multiple disease conditions from the Twitter microblogging platform and zoomed into symptoms related to heart diseases. As part of our analyses, we focussed on the mechanism and trends of disease occurrences. Our results show that specific symptoms may be attributed to multiple disease conditions and it is viable to identify trends and patterns of their occurrences using a structured analytics approach. This can then act as a supplementary tool to support epidemiological initiatives that monitor non-communicable diseases. Based on the study’s results, we identify that non-communicable disease surveillance approach using social media analytics could support the design of effective health intervention strategies.

Characterizing HIV discussions and engagement on Twitter

The novel settings provided by social media facilitate users to seek and share information on a wide array of subjects, including healthcare and wellness. Analyzing health-related opinions and discussions on these platforms complement traditional public health surveillance systems to support timely and effective interventions. This study aims to characterize the HIV-related conversations on Twitter by identifying the prevalent topics and the key events and actors involved in these discussions. Through Twitter API, we collected tweets containing the hashtag #HIV for a one-year period. After pre-processing the collected data, we conducted engagement analysis, temporal analysis, and topic modeling algorithm on the analytical sample (n = 122,807). Tweets by HIV/AIDS/LGBTQ activists and physicians received the highest level of engagement. An upsurge in tweet volume and engagement was observed during global and local events such as World Aids Day and HIV/AIDS awareness and testing days for trans-genders, blacks, women, and the aged population. Eight topics were identified that include “stigma”, “prevention”, “epidemic in the developing countries”, “World Aids Day”, “treatment”, “events”, “PrEP”, and “testing”. Social media discussions offer a nuanced understanding of public opinions, beliefs, and sentiments about numerous health-related issues. The current study reports various dimensions of HIV-related posts on Twitter. Based on the findings, public health agencies and pertinent entities need to proactively use Twitter and other social media by engaging the public through involving influencers. The undertaken methodological choices may be applied to further assess HIV discourse on other popular social media platforms.

Construct a Knowledge Graph for China Coronavirus (COVID-19) Patient Information Tracking

Since first outbreak of respiratory disease in China, the Coronavirus epidemic (COVID-19) spread on a large scale, causing huge losses to individuals, families, communities and society in the country. The conventional research on the transmission process is basically to study the law or trend of the transmission of infectious diseases from a macro perspective. For in-depth study of the critical data of the newly confirmed patients, one effective way to improve the social isolation measures requires the formation of an organized tracking knowledge system for the confirmed patients and the personnel who have been removed, and the deep data mining and application. Knowledge graph (KG) is one of the irreplaceable techniques to quickly gather patient contact information and outbreak event, which reflecting the relationship between knowledge evolution and structure of novel Coronavirus. Therefore, this paper proposes a method for the analysis of COVID-19 epidemic situation using knowledge graph combined with interactive visual analysis. Firstly, based on the key factors of novel Coronavirus disease, the entity model of the patient, the relationship type of the patient and the expression of knowledge modeling were proposed, and the knowledge graph of the action track of the COVID-19 patient was deeply explored and comparative summarized. Secondly, in the process of constructing knowledge graph, conditional random field (CRF) algorithm is used to extract entity and knowledge. Meanwhile, to better analyze the disease relationship between patients, the semantic relationship of knowledge graph was combined with the visualization of knowledge graph, and the semantic model was verified by deep learning calculation and node attribute similarity. To discover the community detection of patients in the patient knowledge graph, this paper uses PageRank combined with Label propagation algorithms to discover community propagation in the network. Finally, COVID-19 epidemic situation was analyzed from confirmed patient data and multi-view collaborative interactions, such as map distribution visualization, knowledge graph visualization, and track visualization. The results show that the construction of a knowledge graph of COVID-19 patient activity is feasible for the transmission process, analysis of key nodes and tracing of activity tracks.

A systematic bioinformatics approach for large-scale identification and characterization of host-pathogen shared sequences

Background

Biology has entered the era of big data with the advent of high-throughput omics technologies. Biological databases provide public access to petabytes of data and information facilitating knowledge discovery. Over the years, sequence data of pathogens has seen a large increase in the number of records, given the relatively small genome size and their important role as infectious and symbiotic agents. Humans are host to numerous pathogenic diseases, such as that by viruses, many of which are responsible for high mortality and morbidity. The interaction between pathogens and humans over the evolutionary history has resulted in sharing of sequences, with important biological and evolutionary implications.

Results

This study describes a large-scale, systematic bioinformatics approach for identification and characterization of shared sequences between the host and pathogen. An application of the approach is demonstrated through identification and characterization of the Flaviviridae-human share-ome. A total of 2430 nonamers represented the Flaviviridae-human share-ome with 100% identity. Although the share-ome represented a small fraction of the repertoire of Flaviviridae (~ 0.12%) and human (~ 0.013%) non-redundant nonamers, the 2430 shared nonamers mapped to 16,946 Flaviviridae and 7506 human non-redundant protein sequences. The shared nonamer sequences mapped to 125 species of Flaviviridae, including several with unclassified genus. The majority (~ 68%) of the shared sequences mapped to Hepacivirus C species; West Nile, dengue and Zika viruses of the Flavivirus genus accounted for ~ 11%, ~ 7%, and ~ 3%, respectively, of the Flaviviridae protein sequences (16,946) mapped by the share-ome. Further characterization of the share-ome provided important structural-functional insights to Flaviviridae-human interactions.

Conclusion

Mapping of the host-pathogen share-ome has important implications for the design of vaccines and drugs, diagnostics, disease surveillance and the discovery of unknown, potential host-pathogen interactions. The generic workflow presented herein is potentially applicable to a variety of pathogens, such as of viral, bacterial or parasitic origin.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12864-021-07657-4.

Data and Digital Solutions to Support Surveillance Strategies in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Background: In order to prevent spread and improve control of infectious diseases, public health experts need to closely monitor human and animal populations. Infectious disease surveillance is an established, routine data collection process essential for early warning, rapid response, and disease control. The quantity of data potentially useful for early warning and surveillance has increased exponentially due to social media and other big data streams. Digital epidemiology is a novel discipline that includes harvesting, analysing, and interpreting data that were not initially collected for healthcare needs to enhance traditional surveillance. During the current COVID-19 pandemic, the importance of digital epidemiology complementing traditional public health approaches has been highlighted. Objective: The aim of this paper is to provide a comprehensive overview for the application of data and digital solutions to support surveillance strategies and draw implications for surveillance in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond. Methods: A search was conducted in PubMed databases. Articles published between January 2005 and May 2020 on the use of digital solutions to support surveillance strategies in pandemic settings and health emergencies were evaluated. Results: In this paper, we provide a comprehensive overview of digital epidemiology, available data sources, and components of 21st-century digital surveillance, early warning and response, outbreak management and control, and digital interventions. Conclusions: Our main purpose was to highlight the plausible use of new surveillance strategies, with implications for the COVID-19 pandemic strategies and then to identify opportunities and challenges for the successful development and implementation of digital solutions during non-emergency times of routine surveillance, with readiness for early-warning and response for future pandemics. The enhancement of traditional surveillance systems with novel digital surveillance methods opens a direction for the most effective framework for preparedness and response to future pandemics.

The US COVID Atlas: A dynamic cyberinfrastructure surveillance system for interactive exploration of the pandemic

Distributed spatial infrastructures leveraging cloud computing technologies can tackle issues of disparate data sources and address the need for data-driven knowledge discovery and more sophisticated spatial analysis central to the COVID-19 pandemic. We implement a new, open source spatial middleware component (libgeoda) and system design to scale development quickly to effectively meet the need for surveilling county-level metrics in a rapidly changing pandemic landscape. We incorporate, wrangle, and analyze multiple data streams from volunteered and crowdsourced environments to leverage multiple data perspectives. We integrate explorative spatial data analysis (ESDA) and statistical hotspot standards to detect infectious disease clusters in real time, building on decades of research in GIScience and spatial statistics. We scale the computational infrastructure to provide equitable access to data and insights across the entire USA, demanding a basic but high-quality standard of ESDA techniques. Finally, we engage a research coalition and incorporate principles of user-centered design to ground the direction and design of Atlas application development.

Predicting seasonal influenza using supermarket retail records

Increased availability of epidemiological data, novel digital data streams, and the rise of powerful machine learning approaches have generated a surge of research activity on real-time epidemic forecast systems. In this paper, we propose the use of a novel data source, namely retail market data to improve seasonal influenza forecasting. Specifically, we consider supermarket retail data as a proxy signal for influenza, through the identification of sentinel baskets, i.e., products bought together by a population of selected customers. We develop a nowcasting and forecasting framework that provides estimates for influenza incidence in Italy up to 4 weeks ahead. We make use of the Support Vector Regression (SVR) model to produce the predictions of seasonal flu incidence. Our predictions outperform both a baseline autoregressive model and a second baseline based on product purchases. The results show quantitatively the value of incorporating retail market data in forecasting models, acting as a proxy that can be used for the real-time analysis of epidemics.

Spatiotemporal Patterns of Human Mobility and Its Association with Land Use Types during COVID-19 in New York City

The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has impacted every facet of society. One of the non-pharmacological measures to contain the COVID-19 infection is social distancing. Federal, state, and local governments have placed multiple executive orders for human mobility reduction to slow down the spread of COVID-19. This paper uses geotagged tweets data to reveal the spatiotemporal human mobility patterns during this COVID-19 pandemic in New York City. With New York City open data, human mobility pattern changes were detected by different categories of land use, including residential, parks, transportation facilities, and workplaces. This study further compares human mobility patterns by land use types based on an open social media platform (Twitter) and the human mobility patterns revealed by Google Community Mobility Report cell phone location, indicating that in some applications, open-access social media data can generate similar results to private data. The results of this study can be further used for human mobility analysis and the battle against COVID-19.

Participatory syndromic surveillance as a tool for tracking COVID-19 in Bangladesh

Limitations in laboratory diagnostic capacity and reporting delays have hampered efforts to mitigate and control the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic globally. To augment traditional lab and hospital-based surveillance, Bangladesh established a participatory surveillance system for the public to self-report symptoms consistent with COVID-19 through multiple channels. Here, we report on the use of this system, which received over 3 million responses within two months, for tracking the COVID-19 outbreak in Bangladesh. Although we observe considerable noise in the data and initial volatility in the use of the different reporting mechanisms, the self-reported syndromic data exhibits a strong association with lab-confirmed cases at a local scale. Moreover, the syndromic data also suggests an earlier spread of the outbreak across Bangladesh than is evident from the confirmed case counts, consistent with predicted spread of the outbreak based on population mobility data. Our results highlight the usefulness of participatory syndromic surveillance for mapping disease burden generally, and particularly during the initial phases of an emerging outbreak.

Transmission and control pressure analysis of the COVID-19 epidemic situation using multisource spatio-temporal big data

Taking the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as the research area, this paper used OD cluster analysis based on Baidu migration data from January 11 to January 25 (before the sealing-off of Wuhan) and concluded that there is a significant correlation 1the migration level from Wuhan to the GBA and the epidemic severity index. This paper also analyzed the migration levels and diffusivity of the outer and inner cities of the GBA. Lastly, four evaluation indexes were selected to research the possibility of work resumption and the rating of epidemic prevention and control through kernel density estimation. According to the study, the amount of migration depends on the geographical proximity, relationship and economic development of the source region, and the severity of the epidemic depends mainly on the migration volume and the severity of the epidemic in the source region. The epidemic risk is related not only to the severity of the epidemic in the source region but also to the degree of urban traffic development and the degree of urban openness. After the resumption of work, the pressure of epidemic prevention and control has been concentrated mainly in Shenzhen and Canton; the further away a region is from the core cities, the lower the pressure in that region. The mass migration of the population makes it difficult to control the epidemic effectively. The study of the relationship between migration volume, epidemic severity and epidemic risk is helpful to further analyze transmission types and predict the trends of the epidemic.

Data-Driven Surveillance: Effective Collection, Integration, and Interpretation of Data to Support Decision Making

The biggest change brought about by the “era of big data” to health in general, and epidemiology in particular, relates arguably not to the volume of data encountered, but to its variety. An increasing number of new data sources, including many not originally collected for health purposes, are now being used for epidemiological inference and contextualization. Combining evidence from multiple data sources presents significant challenges, but discussions around this subject often confuse issues of data access and privacy, with the actual technical challenges of data integration and interoperability. We review some of the opportunities for connecting data, generating information, and supporting decision-making across the increasingly complex “variety” dimension of data in population health, to enable data-driven surveillance to go beyond simple signal detection and support an expanded set of surveillance goals.

Modeling Study: Characterizing the Spatial Heterogeneity of the COVID-19 Pandemic through Shape Analysis of Epidemic Curves

Background

The COVID-19 incidence rates across different geographical regions (e.g., counties in a state, states in a nation, countries in a continent) follow different shapes and patterns. The overall summaries at coarser spatial scales, that are obtained by simply averaging individual curves (across regions), hide nuanced variability and blur the spatial heterogeneity at finer spatial scales. For instance, a decreasing incidence rate curve in one region is obscured by an increasing rate curve for another region, when the analysis relies on coarse averages of locally heterogeneous transmission dynamics.

Objective

To highlight regional differences in COVID-19 incidence rates and to discover prominent patterns in shapes of incidence rate curves in multiple regions (USA and Europe).

Methods

We employ statistical methods to analyze shapes of local COVID-19 incidence rate curves and statistically group them into distinct clusters, according to their shapes. Using this information, we derive the so-called shape averages of curves within these clusters, which represent the dominant incidence patterns of these clusters. We apply this methodology to the analysis of the daily incidence trajectory of the COVID-pandemic for two geographic areas: A state-level analysis within the USA and a country-level analysis within Europe during late-February to October 1st, 2020.

Results

Our analyses reveal that pandemic curves often differ substantially across regions. However, there are only a handful of shapes that dominate transmission dynamics for all states in the USA and countries in Europe. This approach yields a broad classification of spatial areas into different characteristic epidemic trajectories. In particular, spatial areas within the same cluster have followed similar transmission and control dynamics.

Conclusion

The shape-based analysis of pandemic curves presented here helps divide country or continental data into multiple regional clusters, each cluster containing areas with similar trend patterns. This clustering helps highlight differences in pandemic curves across regions and provides summaries that better reflect dynamical patterns within the clusters. This approach adds to the methodological toolkit for public health practitioners to facilitate decision making at different spatial scales.

Digital health during COVID-19: lessons from operationalising new models of care in ophthalmology

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in massive disruptions within health care, both directly as a result of the infectious disease outbreak, and indirectly because of public health measures to mitigate against transmission. This disruption has caused rapid dynamic fluctuations in demand, capacity, and even contextual aspects of health care. Therefore, the traditional face-to-face patient-physician care model has had to be re-examined in many countries, with digital technology and new models of care being rapidly deployed to meet the various challenges of the pandemic. This Viewpoint highlights new models in ophthalmology that have adapted to incorporate digital health solutions such as telehealth, artificial intelligence decision support for triaging and clinical care, and home monitoring. These models can be operationalised for different clinical applications based on the technology, clinical need, demand from patients, and manpower availability, ranging from out-of-hospital models including the hub-and-spoke pre-hospital model, to front-line models such as the inflow funnel model and monitoring models such as the so-called lighthouse model for provider-led monitoring. Lessons learnt from operationalising these models for ophthalmology in the context of COVID-19 are discussed, along with their relevance for other specialty domains.