Birth Cohort Effects in Influenza Surveillance Data: Evidence That First Influenza Infection Affects Later Influenza-Associated Illness

Repeated vaccination does not appear to significantly weaken the protective effect of influenza vaccine in the elderly: A test-negative case-control study in China

BACKGROUND

The impact of repeated influenza vaccination on vaccine effectiveness has been a topic of debate. Conducting more multinational, multicenter studies in different influenza seasons is crucial for a better understanding of this issue. There is a lack of comprehensive related research reports in China.

METHODS

Using the Regional Health Information Platform, we conducted a test-negative case-control study to evaluate the impact of repeated vaccination on the prevention of laboratory-confirmed influenza in individuals aged 60 and above in Ningbo during four influenza seasons from 2018-19 to 2021-22. Influenza-positive cases and negative controls were matched in a 1:1 ratio based on the visiting hospital and the date of influenza testing. Propensity score adjustment and multivariable logistic regression were used to estimate risk and address confounding effects.

RESULTS

During the study period, a total of 30,630 elderly patients underwent influenza virus nucleic acid or antigen testing. After exclusions, we included 1976 cases of influenza-positive and 1976 cases of influenza-negative controls. Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that individuals receiving the vaccine in two consecutive seasons did not exhibit a significantly increased risk of influenza illness compared to those receiving the vaccine only in the current season (adjusted odds ratio: 1.22, 95% confidence interval: 0.94-1.58). However, the risk of influenza illness was found to be elevated in individuals who received the vaccine only in the previous season (adjusted odds ratio: 1.56, 95% confidence interval: 1.15-2.10) and even further elevated in those who had not received the vaccine in either of the consecutive two seasons (adjusted odds ratio: 3.39, 95% confidence interval: 2.80-4.09).

CONCLUSIONS

Regardless of the vaccination history in the previous season, receiving the current season influenza vaccine is the best choice for the elderly population. Our study supports the initiative to vaccinate elderly individuals against influenza annually.

Immune imprinting in early life shapes cross-reactivity to influenza B virus haemagglutinin

Influenza exposures early in life are believed to shape future susceptibility to influenza infections by imprinting immunological biases that affect cross-reactivity to future influenza viruses. However, direct serological evidence linked to susceptibility is limited. Here we analysed haemagglutination-inhibition titres in 1,451 cross-sectional samples collected between 1992 and 2020, from individuals born between 1917 and 2008, against influenza B virus (IBV) isolates from 1940 to 2021. We included testing of 'future' isolates that circulated after sample collection. We show that immunological biases are conferred by early life IBV infection and result in lineage-specific cross-reactivity of a birth cohort towards future IBV isolates. This translates into differential estimates of susceptibility between birth cohorts towards the B/Yamagata and B/Victoria lineages, predicting lineage-specific birth-cohort distributions of observed medically attended IBV infections. Our data suggest that immunological measurements of imprinting could be important in modelling and predicting virus epidemiology.

Immune imprinting of SARS-CoV-2 responses: changing first immune impressions

Since the emergence of the ancestral severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus and the successful rollout of protective vaccines based on this original strain, SARS-CoV-2 has evolved into several variants, in a classical virus-host arms race typical of RNA viruses, to progressively evade the host immune response. Next-generation bivalent vaccines have been developed with broader protection against emerging variants than the ancestral vaccine. Nonetheless, even these vaccines show lower protection against the latest Omicron variants. Immune printing describes how an immune response to an immunogen is impacted by earlier exposures to a related immunogen. Several lessons about the effect of immune imprinting on responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination, including age-associated impacts, can be learned from influenza. Understanding the mechanisms of imprinting of SARS-CoV-2 will be important to inform the design of vaccines that produce broader and more durable protective immune responses to emerging variants.

Influenza Hospitalization Burden by Subtype, Age, Comorbidity, and Vaccination Status: 2012-2013 to 2018-2019 Seasons, Quebec, Canada

BACKGROUND

Influenza immunization programs aim to reduce the risk and burden of severe outcomes. To inform optimal program strategies, we monitored influenza hospitalizations over 7 seasons, stratified by age, comorbidity, and vaccination status.

METHODS

We assembled data from 4 hospitals involved in an active surveillance network with systematic collection of nasal samples and polymerase chain reaction testing for influenza virus in all patients admitted through the emergency department with acute respiratory infection during the 2012-2013 to 2018-2019 influenza seasons in Quebec, Canada. We estimated seasonal, population-based incidence of influenza-associated hospitalizations by subtype predominance, age, comorbidity, and vaccine status, and derived the number needed to vaccinate to prevent 1 hospitalization per stratum.

RESULTS

The average seasonal incidence of influenza-associated hospitalization was 89/100 000 (95% confidence interval, 86-93), lower during A(H1N1) (49-82/100 000) than A(H3N2) seasons (73-143/100 000). Overall risk followed a J-shaped age pattern, highest among infants 0-5 months and adults ≥75 years old. Hospitalization risks were highest for children <5 years old during A(H1N1) but for highest adults aged ≥75 years during A(H3N2) seasons. Age-adjusted hospitalization risks were 7-fold higher among individuals with versus without comorbid conditions (214 vs 30/100 000, respectively). The number needed to vaccinate to prevent hospitalization was 82-fold lower for ≥75-years-olds with comorbid conditions (n = 1995), who comprised 39% of all hospitalizations, than for healthy 18-64-year-olds (n = 163 488), who comprised just 6% of all hospitalizations.

CONCLUSIONS

In the context of broad-based influenza immunization programs (targeted or universal), severe outcome risks should be simultaneously examined by subtype, age, comorbidity, and vaccine status. Policymakers require such detail to prioritize promotional efforts and expenditures toward the greatest and most efficient program impact.

Comparison of the clinical features and outcomes of severe seasonal influenza and COVID-19 patients in Tunisia between 2021 and 2022

Background

We compared patients diagnosed at a SARI (severe acute respiratory infections) surveillance site with COVID-19 and those with seasonal influenza to investigate the clinical differences, common features, and outcomes.

Methods

We conducted a descriptive, retrospective study in the Medical Intensive Care Unit (ICU) at Abderrahman Mami Hospital between September 2021 and April 2022. Demographic, clinical, and biological data as well as outcomes were recorded for all patients.

Results

Among 223 SARI patients, 83 were confirmed COVID-19, and 22 were influenza positive. The distribution according to gender was similar; but patients with influenza were younger than those suffering from COVID-19(mean age 60.36 SD 17.28 vs. 61.88 SD 17.91; P = 0.601). In terms of underlying chronic diseases, the frequency was 84.3% in the COVID-19 group and 72.7% in the influenza group. COVID-19 patients had a longer duration of hospitalization (mean [SD], 9.51 days [8.47 days] vs. 7.33 days [8.82 days]; P = 0.003), and a more frequent need for invasive ventilation (80 [97.4%] vs. 20 [92.3]). Case fatality was also higher among this group compared to the latter (39 [47%] vs. 6 [27.3%], P = 0.01).

Conclusion

This exploratory study suggests higher severity of COVID-19 compared to seasonal influenza among SARI hospitalized patients even during the Omicron wave. Further research on higher sample sizes is required to confirm this conclusion.

Highly Cross-Reactive and Protective Influenza A Virus H3N2 Hemagglutinin- and Neuraminidase-Specific Human Monoclonal Antibodies

Due to antigenic drift and shift of influenza A viruses (IAV) and the tendency to elicit predominantly strain-specific antibodies, humanity remains susceptible to new strains of seasonal IAV and is at risk from viruses with pandemic potential for which limited or no immunity may exist. The genetic drift of H3N2 IAV is specifically pronounced, resulting in two distinct clades since 2014. Here, we demonstrate that immunization with a seasonal inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV) results in increased levels of H3N2 IAV-specific serum antibodies against hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA). Detailed analysis of the H3N2 B cell response indicated expansion of H3N2-specific peripheral blood plasmablasts 7 days after IIV immunization which expressed monoclonal antibodies (MAbs) with broad and potent antiviral activity against many H3N2 IAV strains as well as prophylactic and therapeutic activity in mice. These H3N2-specific B cell clonal lineages persisted in CD138+ long-lived bone marrow plasma cells. These results demonstrate that IIV-induced H3N2 human MAbs can protect and treat influenza virus infection in vivo and suggest that IIV can induce a subset of IAV H3N2-specific B cells with broad protective potential, a feature that warrants further study for universal influenza vaccine development. IMPORTANCE Influenza A virus (IAV) infections continue to cause substantial morbidity and mortality despite the availability of seasonal vaccines. The extensive genetic variability in seasonal and potentially pandemic influenza strains necessitates new vaccine strategies that can induce universal protection by focusing the immune response on generating protective antibodies against conserved targets within the influenza virus hemagglutinin and neuraminidase proteins. We have demonstrated that seasonal immunization with inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV) stimulates H3N2-specific monoclonal antibodies in humans that are broad and potent in their neutralization of virus in vitro. These antibodies also provide protection from H3N2 IAV in a mouse model of infection. Furthermore, they persist in the bone marrow, where they are expressed by long-lived antibody-producing plasma cells. This significantly demonstrates that seasonal IIV can induce a subset of H3N2-specific B cells with broad protective potential, a process that if further studied and enhanced could aid in the development of a universal influenza vaccine.

Vaccine Effectiveness Against Influenza-Associated Urgent Care, Emergency Department, and Hospital Encounters During the 2021-2022 Season, VISION Network

BACKGROUND

Following historically low influenza activity during the 2020-2021 season, the United States saw an increase in influenza circulating during the 2021-2022 season. Most viruses belonged to the influenza A(H3N2) 3C.2a1b 2a.2 subclade.

METHODS

We conducted a test-negative case-control analysis among adults ≥18 years of age at 3 sites within the VISION Network. Encounters included emergency department/urgent care (ED/UC) visits or hospitalizations with ≥1 acute respiratory illness (ARI) discharge diagnosis codes and molecular testing for influenza. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) was calculated by comparing the odds of influenza vaccination ≥14 days before the encounter date between influenza-positive cases (type A) and influenza-negative and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)-negative controls, applying inverse probability-to-be-vaccinated weights, and adjusting for confounders.

RESULTS

In total, 86 732 ED/UC ARI-associated encounters (7696 [9%] cases) and 16 805 hospitalized ARI-associated encounters (649 [4%] cases) were included. VE against influenza-associated ED/UC encounters was 25% (95% confidence interval (CI), 20%-29%) and 25% (95% CI, 11%-37%) against influenza-associated hospitalizations. VE against ED/UC encounters was lower in adults ≥65 years of age (7%; 95% CI, -5% to 17%) or with immunocompromising conditions (4%; 95% CI, -45% to 36%).

CONCLUSIONS

During an influenza A(H3N2)-predominant influenza season, modest VE was observed. These findings highlight the need for improved vaccines, particularly for A(H3N2) viruses that are historically associated with lower VE.

Cost-effectiveness of routine annual influenza vaccination by age and risk status

BACKGROUND

The epidemiology of circulating seasonal influenza strains changed following the 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1). A universal influenza vaccination recommendation has been implemented and new vaccine types have become available post-2009. The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of routine annual influenza vaccination in the context of this new evidence.

METHODS

A state transition simulation model was constructed to estimate the health and economic outcomes of influenza vaccination compared to no vaccination for hypothetical US cohorts stratified by age and risk status. Model input parameters were derived from multiple sources, including post-2009 vaccine effectiveness data from the US Flu Vaccine Effectiveness Network. The analysis used societal and healthcare sector perspectives and a one-year time horizon, except permanent outcomes were also included. The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) in dollars per quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained.

RESULTS

Compared to no vaccination, vaccination yielded ICERs lower than $95,000/QALY for all age and risk groups, except for non-high-risk adults 18-49 years ($194,000/QALY). Vaccination was cost-saving for adults ≥50 years at higher risk for influenza-related complications. Results were most sensitive to changes in the probability of influenza illness. Performing the analysis from the healthcare sector perspective, excluding vaccination time costs, delivering vaccinations in lower-cost settings, and including productivity losses improved the cost-effectiveness of vaccination. Sensitivity analysis revealed that vaccination remains below $100,000/QALY for older persons ≥65 years at vaccine effectiveness estimates as low as 4 %.

CONCLUSIONS

Cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination varied by age and risk status and was less than $95,000/QALY for all subgroups, except for non-high-risk working-age adults. Results were sensitive to the probability of influenza illness and vaccination was more favorable under certain scenarios. Vaccination for higher risk subgroups resulted in ICERs below $100,000/QALY even at low levels of vaccine effectiveness or circulating virus.

Cocirculation of A(H3N2) and B/Victoria increased morbidity in hospitalized patients in the 2019-2020 A(H1N1)pdm09 predominant influenza season in Israel

Community surveillance found the 2019-2020 A(H1N1)pdm09 predominant influenza season in Israel to be a high-intensity season with an early and steep morbidity peak. To further characterize disease severity in the 2019-2020 season, we analyzed a cohort of hospitalized patients with laboratory-confirmed influenza from this season (n = 636). Quantitative polymerase chain reaction was performed on clinical samples to detect the presence of influenza. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory data were retrieved via electronic health records and MDClone. Electronic health records were accessed to obtain data on intensive care unit patients, missing data and for data verification purposes. Univariate analysis was performed to compare demographic, comorbidity, and clinical characteristics across the three influenza strains. The A(H1N1)pdm09 predominant 2019-2020 influenza season in Israel was characterized by an early and steep morbidity peak, vaccine delays and shortages, and with the A(H3N2) and B/Victoria strains disproportionately targeting children and young adults, most probably due to reduced immunity to these strains. A greater proportion of children <5 years infected with A(H3N2) and B/Victoria developed severe influenza compared with those infected with A(H1N1)pdm09. Our study emphasizes the vulnerability of infants and young children in the face of rapidly evolving influenza strains and underscores the importance of influenza prevention measures in this population.

A Complementary Union of SARS-CoV2 Natural and Vaccine Induced Immune Responses

Our understanding of the immune responses that follow SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination has progressed considerably since the COVID-19 pandemic was first declared on the 11th of March in 2020. Recovery from infection is associated with the development of protective immune responses, although over time these become less effective against new emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants. Consequently, reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 variants is not infrequent and has contributed to the ongoing pandemic. COVID-19 vaccines have had a tremendous impact on reducing infection and particularly the number of deaths associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, waning of vaccine induced immunity plus the emergence of new variants has necessitated the use of boosters to maintain the benefits of vaccination in reducing COVID-19 associated deaths. Boosting is also beneficial for individuals who have recovered from COVID-19 and developed natural immunity, also enhancing responses immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 variants. This review summarizes our understanding of the immune responses that follow SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination, the risks of reinfection with emerging variants and the very important protective role vaccine boosting plays in both vaccinated and previously infected individuals.

Seasonal influenza vaccination expands hemagglutinin-specific antibody breadth to older and future A/H3N2 viruses

History of influenza A/H3N2 exposure, especially childhood infection, shape antibody responses after influenza vaccination and infection, but have not been extensively studied. We investigated the breadth and durability of influenza A/H3N2-specific hemagglutinin-inhibition antibodies after live-attenuated influenza vaccine in children (aged 3-17 years, n = 42), and after inactivated influenza vaccine or infection in adults (aged 22-61 years, n = 42) using 14 antigenically distinct A/H3N2 viruses circulating from 1968 to 2018. We found that vaccination and infection elicited cross-reactive antibody responses, predominantly directed against newer or future strains. Childhood H3-priming increased the breadth and magnitude of back-boosted A/H3N2-specific antibodies in adults. Broader and more durable A/H3N2-specific antibodies were observed in repeatedly vaccinated adults than in children and previously unvaccinated adults. Our findings suggest that early A/H3N2 exposure and frequent seasonal vaccination could increase the breadth and seropositivity of antibody responses, which may improve vaccine protection against future viruses.

52-year follow-up of a birth cohort reveals a high pneumonia incidence among young men

Background

Knowledge of pneumonia incidence and risk factors in adults is mainly based on clinical studies of selected patient data and registers with ageing populations. Prospective population-based investigations, such as birth cohort studies, are needed to understand pneumonia incidence and risk factors among young and working-age populations.

Methods

Northern Finland Birth Cohort (NFBC) 1966 data (n=6750) were analysed for pneumonia incidence and risk factors. Incidence analysis was replicated using data from an independent NFBC 1986 cohort (n=9207). Pneumonia in relation to chronic conditions and lifestyle factors was analysed.

Results

A peak with a maximum of 227 pneumonia episodes per 10 000 among men between the ages of 19 and 21 years was found in two independent cohorts. Pneumonia was associated with male sex (relative risk 1.72, 95% CI 1.45-2.04; p<0.001), low educational level (relative risk 2.30, 95% CI 1.72-3.09; p<0.001), smoking (relative risk 1.55, 95% CI 1.31-1.84; p<0.001), asthma (relative risk 2.19, 95% CI 1.73-2.75; p<0.001), cardiovascular diseases (relative risk 2.50, 95% CI 2.04-3.07; p=0.001), kidney diseases (relative risk 4.14, 95% CI 2.81-6.10; p<0.001), rheumatoid arthritis (relative risk 2.69, 95% CI 1.80-4.01; p<0.001), psoriasis (relative risk 2.91, 95% CI 1.92-4.41; p<0.001) and type II diabetes (relative risk 1.80, 95% CI 1.34-2.42; p<0.001). Men with excessive alcohol consumption at age 31 years were at risk of future pneumonia (relative risk 2.40, 95% CI 1.58-3.64; p<0.001).

Conclusions

Birth cohort data can reveal novel high-risk subpopulations, such as young males. Our study provides understanding of pneumonia incidence and risk factors among young and working age populations.

Role of Age in the Spread of Influenza, 2011-2019: Data From the US Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Network

Intraseason timing of influenza infection among persons of different ages could reflect relative contributions to propagation of seasonal epidemics and has not been examined among ambulatory patients. Using data from the US Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Network, we calculated risk ratios derived from comparing weekly numbers of influenza cases prepeak with those postpeak during the 2010-2011 through 2018-2019 influenza seasons. We sought to determine age-specific differences during the ascent versus descent of an influenza season by influenza virus type and subtype. We estimated 95% credible intervals around the risk ratios using Bayesian joint posterior sampling of weekly cases. Our population consisted of ambulatory patients with laboratory-confirmed influenza who enrolled in an influenza vaccine effectiveness study at 5 US sites during 9 influenza seasons after the 2009 influenza A virus subtype H1N1 (H1N1) pandemic. We observed that young children aged <5 years tended to more often be infected with H1N1 during the prepeak period, while adults aged ≥65 years tended to more often be infected with H1N1 during the postpeak period. However, for influenza A virus subtype H3N2, children aged <5 years were more often infected during the postpeak period. These results may reflect a contribution of different age groups to seasonal spread, which may differ by influenza virus type and subtype.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Versus Influenza in Hospitalized Adult Patients in the United States: Differences in Demographic and Severity Indicators

BACKGROUND

Novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is frequently compared with influenza. The Hospitalized Adult Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Network (HAIVEN) conducts studies on the etiology and characteristics of U.S. hospitalized adults with influenza. It began enrolling patients with COVID-19 hospitalizations in March 2020. Patients with influenza were compared with those with COVID-19 in the first months of the U.S. epidemic.

METHODS

Adults aged ≥ 18 years admitted to hospitals in 4 sites with acute respiratory illness were tested by real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction for influenza and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus causing COVID-19. Demographic and illness characteristics were collected for influenza illnesses during 3 seasons 2016-2019. Similar data were collected on COVID-19 cases admitted before June 19, 2020.

RESULTS

Age groups hospitalized with COVID-19 (n = 914) were similar to those admitted with influenza (n = 1937); 80% of patients with influenza and 75% of patients with COVID-19 were aged ≥50 years. Deaths from COVID-19 that occurred in younger patients were less often related to underlying conditions. White non-Hispanic persons were overrepresented in influenza (64%) compared with COVID-19 hospitalizations (37%). Greater severity and complications occurred with COVID-19 including more ICU admissions (AOR = 15.3 [95% CI: 11.6, 20.3]), ventilator use (AOR = 15.6 [95% CI: 10.7, 22.8]), 7 additional days of hospital stay in those discharged alive, and death during hospitalization (AOR = 19.8 [95% CI: 12.0, 32.7]).

CONCLUSIONS

While COVID-19 can cause a respiratory illness like influenza, it is associated with significantly greater severity of illness, longer hospital stays, and higher in-hospital deaths.

Influenza immune escape under heterogeneous host immune histories

In a pattern called immune imprinting, individuals gain the strongest immune protection against the influenza strains encountered earliest in life. In many recent examples, differences in early infection history can explain birth year-associated differences in susceptibility (cohort effects). Susceptibility shapes strain fitness, but without a clear conceptual model linking host susceptibility to the identity and order of past infections general conclusions on the evolutionary and epidemic implications of cohort effects are not possible. Failure to differentiate between cohort effects caused by differences in the set, rather than the order (path), of past infections is a current source of confusion. We review and refine hypotheses for path-dependent cohort effects, which include imprinting. We highlight strategies to measure their underlying causes and emergent consequences.

Age-seroprevalence curves for the multi-strain structure of influenza A virus

The relationship between age and seroprevalence can be used to estimate the annual attack rate of an infectious disease. For pathogens with multiple serologically distinct strains, there is a need to describe composite exposure to an antigenically variable group of pathogens. In this study, we assay 24,402 general-population serum samples, collected in Vietnam between 2009 to 2015, for antibodies to eleven human influenza A strains. We report that a principal components decomposition of antibody titer data gives the first principal component as an appropriate surrogate for seroprevalence; this results in annual attack rate estimates of 25.6% (95% CI: 24.1% - 27.1%) for subtype H3 and 16.0% (95% CI: 14.7% - 17.3%) for subtype H1. The remaining principal components separate the strains by serological similarity and associate birth cohorts with their particular influenza histories. Our work shows that dimensionality reduction can be used on human antibody profiles to construct an age-seroprevalence relationship for antigenically variable pathogens.

Influenza Vaccine Failure Associated With Age and Immunosuppression

BACKGROUND

The influenza vaccine is one of the best ways to prevent influenza infection, but little is known about influenza vaccine failure.

METHODS

This study evaluated patients admitted for acute respiratory illness during 2015-2019 influenza seasons to compare vaccinated influenza-negative to vaccinated influenza-positive patients. Statistical analyses were performed with STATA and R using Pearson χ 2, Kruskal-Wallis, Wilcoxon rank-sum tests, and multivariate logistic regression.

RESULTS

Of 1236 enrolled patients vaccinated for influenza, 235 (19%) tested positive for influenza. Demographics, vaccines, and comorbidities were similar between groups except for morbid obesity (13% influenza negative vs 8%, P = .04), and immunosuppression (63% influenza positive vs 54%, P = .01). Logistic regression analysis demonstrated older patients (odds ratio [OR], 1.47; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03-2.10) and immunosuppressed patients (OR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.15-2.12) were at increased risk for influenza despite immunization. When evaluated by influenza subtype, immunosuppression increased the risk for influenza A/H3N2 (OR, 1.86; 95% CI, 1.25-2.75).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study demonstrated increased risk of influenza vaccine failure in older patients and immunosuppressed patients. These groups are also at increased risk for influenza complications. To improve protection of patients against influenza illnesses, more effective vaccines and strategies are needed.

Age-Specific Incidence of Influenza A Responds to Change in Virus Subtype Dominance

When H3N2 replaced H1N1 as the dominant influenza A subtype during the 2018-2019 season, the pattern of age-specific incidence shifted due to the lingering effects of antigenic imprinting. The characteristic shape that imprinting leaves on influenza susceptibility could foster important advances in understanding and predicting the epidemiology of influenza.

Effects of Influenza Vaccination in the United States During the 2018-2019 Influenza Season

BACKGROUND

Multivalent influenza vaccine products provide protection against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2), and B lineage viruses. The 2018-2019 influenza season in the United States included prolonged circulation of A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses well-matched to the vaccine strain and A(H3N2) viruses, the majority of which were mismatched to the vaccine. We estimated the number of vaccine-prevented influenza-associated illnesses, medical visits, hospitalizations, and deaths for the season.

METHODS

We used a mathematical model and Monte Carlo algorithm to estimate numbers and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) of influenza-associated outcomes prevented by vaccination in the United States. The model incorporated age-specific estimates of national 2018-2019 influenza vaccine coverage, influenza virus-specific vaccine effectiveness from the US Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Network, and disease burden estimated from population-based rates of influenza-associated hospitalizations through the Influenza Hospitalization Surveillance Network.

RESULTS

Influenza vaccination prevented an estimated 4.4 million (95%UI, 3.4 million-7.1 million) illnesses, 2.3 million (95%UI, 1.8 million-3.8 million) medical visits, 58 000 (95%UI, 30 000-156 000) hospitalizations, and 3500 (95%UI, 1000-13 000) deaths due to influenza viruses during the US 2018-2019 influenza season. Vaccination prevented 14% of projected hospitalizations associated with A(H1N1)pdm09 overall and 43% among children aged 6 months-4 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Influenza vaccination averted substantial influenza-associated disease including hospitalizations and deaths in the United States, primarily due to effectiveness against A(H1N1)pdm09. Our findings underscore the value of influenza vaccination, highlighting that vaccines measurably decrease illness and associated healthcare utilization even in a season in which a vaccine component does not match to a circulating virus.

Age-specific effects of vaccine egg adaptation and immune priming on A(H3N2) antibody responses following influenza vaccination

A(H3N2) influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) was low during the 2016-19 seasons and varied by age. We analyzed neutralizing antibody responses to egg- and cell-propagated A(H3N2) vaccine and circulating viruses following vaccination in 375 individuals (aged 7 months to 82 years) across all vaccine-eligible age groups in 3 influenza seasons. Antibody responses to cell- versus egg-propagated vaccine viruses were significantly reduced due to the egg-adapted changes T160K, D225G, and L194P in the vaccine hemagglutinins. Vaccine egg adaptation had a differential impact on antibody responses across the different age groups. Immunologically naive children immunized with egg-adapted vaccines mostly mounted antibodies targeting egg-adapted epitopes, whereas those previously primed with infection produced broader responses even when vaccinated with egg-based vaccines. In the elderly, repeated boosts of vaccine egg-adapted epitopes significantly reduced antibody responses to the WT cell-grown viruses. Analysis with reverse genetic viruses suggested that the response to each egg-adapted substitution varied by age. No differences in antibody responses were observed between male and female vaccinees. Here, the combination of age-specific responses to vaccine egg-adapted substitutions, diverse host immune priming histories, and virus antigenic drift affected antibody responses following vaccination and may have led to the low and variable VE against A(H3N2) viruses across different age groups.

Clinical and Economic Outcomes Associated with Cell-Based Quadrivalent Influenza Vaccine vs. Standard-Dose Egg-Based Quadrivalent Influenza Vaccines during the 2018-19 Influenza Season in the United States

Non-egg-based influenza vaccines eliminate the potential for egg-adapted mutations and potentially increase vaccine effectiveness. This retrospective study compared hospitalizations/emergency room (ER) visits and all-cause annualized healthcare costs among subjects aged 4–64 years who received cell-based quadrivalent (QIVc) or standard-dose egg-based quadrivalent (QIVe-SD) influenza vaccine during the 2018–19 influenza season. Administrative claims data (IQVIA PharMetrics^® Plus, IQVIA, USA) were utilized to evaluate clinical and economic outcomes. Adjusted relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) of QIVc vs. QIVe-SD among overall cohort, as well as for three subgroups (age 4–17 years, age 18–64 years, and high-risk) was evaluated using inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) and Poisson regression models. Generalized estimating equation models among the propensity score matched sample were used to estimate annualized all-cause costs. A total of 669,030 recipients of QIVc and 3,062,797 of QIVe-SD were identified after IPTW adjustments. Among the overall cohort, QIVc had higher adjusted rVEs against hospitalizations/ER visits related to influenza, all-cause hospitalizations, and hospitalizations/ER visits associated with any respiratory event compared to QIVe-SD. The adjusted annualized all-cause total costs were higher for QIVe-SD compared to QIVc ((+$461); p < 0.05).

Beyond clinical trials: Evolutionary and epidemiological considerations for development of a universal influenza vaccine

The prospect of universal influenza vaccines is generating much interest and research at the intersection of immunology, epidemiology, and viral evolution. While the current focus is on developing a vaccine that elicits a broadly cross-reactive immune response in clinical trials, there are important downstream questions about global deployment of a universal influenza vaccine that should be explored to minimize unintended consequences and maximize benefits. Here, we review and synthesize the questions most relevant to predicting the population benefits of universal influenza vaccines and discuss how existing information could be mined to begin to address these questions. We review three research topics where computational modeling could bring valuable evidence: immune imprinting, viral evolution, and transmission. We address the positive and negative consequences of imprinting, in which early childhood exposure to influenza shapes and limits immune responses to future infections via memory of conserved influenza antigens. However, the mechanisms at play, their effectiveness, breadth of protection, and the ability to "reprogram" already imprinted individuals, remains heavily debated. We describe instances of rapid influenza evolution that illustrate the plasticity of the influenza virus in the face of drug pressure and discuss how novel vaccines could introduce new selective pressures on the evolution of the virus. We examine the possible unintended consequences of broadly protective (but infection-permissive) vaccines on the dynamics of epidemic and pandemic influenza, compared to conventional vaccines that have been shown to provide herd immunity benefits. In conclusion, computational modeling offers a valuable tool to anticipate the benefits of ambitious universal influenza vaccine programs, while balancing the risks from endemic influenza strains and unpredictable pandemic viruses. Moving forward, it will be important to mine the vast amount of data generated in clinical studies of universal influenza vaccines to ensure that the benefits and consequences of these vaccine programs have been carefully modeled and explored.

A comparison of epidemiology and clinical outcomes between influenza A H1N1pdm09 and H3N2 based on multicenter surveillance from 2014 to 2018 in South Korea

BACKGROUND

After pandemic, A(H1N1)pdm09 is generally known to be associated with younger adults' infection and greater severity than seasonal A(H3N2) but some inconsistences between recent studies exist.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to compare the epidemiology and clinical outcomes of A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) to verify and consolidate about the knowledge of known differences of subtypes.

METHODS

Data were retrospectively collected from the hospital-based influenza morbidity and mortality surveillance in South Korea in nine tertiary care hospitals, from August 31, 2014, to August 25, 2018. Patients with H1N1pdm09 or H3N2 infection admitted in the emergency room or ward were recruited.

RESULTS

A total of 1747 patients had influenza A and were divided into two groups those with A(H1N1)pdm09 (n = 240) and those with A(H3N2) (n = 1507). A(H1N1)pdm09 group had younger age (mean age ± standard deviation 50.0 ± 18.8 in H1N1 vs 53.4 ± 21.1 in H3N2, P = .030), lower influenza vaccination (27.9% vs 43.9%, P < .001) and pneumococcal vaccination rates (41.0% vs 51.9%, P < .001), and fewer underlying diseases (67.5% vs 74.0%, P = .035) than the A(H3N2) group. Influenza A subtypes were not associated with pneumonia risk (adjusted odds ratios [AOR] of A(H1N1)pdm09: 0.7 [95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.4-1.2, P = .172]) and in-hospital mortality (hazard ratio (HR) of A(H1N1)pdm09: 1.0 (95% CI: 0.3-3.1, P = .983)). Influenza vaccination reduced in-hospital mortality in hospitalized patients (HR: 0.3 (95% CI: 0.1-0.7), P = .005).

CONCLUSIONS

A(H1N1)pdm09 infection was more common in younger patients without significant difference in pneumonia risk and in-hospital mortality between subtypes. Influenza vaccination was associated with reduced in-hospital mortality.

Low 2018/19 vaccine effectiveness against influenza A(H3N2) among 15-64-year-olds in Europe: exploration by birth cohort

Introduction

Influenza A(H3N2) clades 3C.2a and 3C.3a co-circulated in Europe in 2018/19. Immunological imprinting by first childhood influenza infection may induce future birth cohort differences in vaccine effectiveness (VE).

Aim

The I-MOVE multicentre primary care test-negative study assessed 2018/19 influenza A(H3N2) VE by age and genetic subgroups to explore VE by birth cohort.

Methods

We measured VE against influenza A(H3N2) and (sub)clades. We stratified VE by usual age groups (0–14, 15–64, ≥ 65-years). To assess the imprint-regulated effect of vaccine (I-REV) hypothesis, we further stratified the middle-aged group, notably including 32–54-year-olds (1964–86) sharing potential childhood imprinting to serine at haemagglutinin position 159.

Results

Influenza A(H3N2) VE among all ages was −1% (95% confidence interval (CI): −24 to 18) and 46% (95% CI: 8–68), −26% (95% CI: −66 to 4) and 20% (95% CI: −20 to 46) among 0–14, 15–64 and ≥ 65-year-olds, respectively. Among 15–64-year-olds, VE against clades 3C.2a1b and 3C.3a was 15% (95% CI: −34 to 50) and −74% (95% CI: −259 to 16), respectively. VE was −18% (95% CI: −140 to 41), −53% (95% CI: −131 to −2) and −12% (95% CI: −74 to 28) among 15–31-year-olds (1987–2003), 32–54-year-olds (1964–86) and 55–64-year-olds (1954–63), respectively.

Discussion

The lowest 2018/19 influenza A(H3N2) VE was against clade 3C.3a and among those born 1964–86, corresponding to the I-REV hypothesis. The low influenza A(H3N2) VE in 15–64-year-olds and the public health impact of the I-REV hypothesis warrant further study.

Earliest infections predict the age distribution of seasonal influenza A cases

Seasonal variation in the age distribution of influenza A cases suggests that factors other than age shape susceptibility to medically attended infection. We ask whether these differences can be partly explained by protection conferred by childhood influenza infection, which has lasting impacts on immune responses to influenza and protection against new influenza A subtypes (phenomena known as original antigenic sin and immune imprinting). Fitting a statistical model to data from studies of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE), we find that primary infection appears to reduce the risk of medically attended infection with that subtype throughout life. This effect is stronger for H1N1 compared to H3N2. Additionally, we find evidence that VE varies with both age and birth year, suggesting that VE is sensitive to early exposures. Our findings may improve estimates of age-specific risk and VE in similarly vaccinated populations and thus improve forecasting and vaccination strategies to combat seasonal influenza.

Dynamic interactions of influenza viruses in Hong Kong during 1998-2018

Influenza epidemics cause substantial morbidity and mortality every year worldwide. Currently, two influenza A subtypes, A(H1N1) and A(H3N2), and type B viruses co-circulate in humans and infection with one type/subtype could provide cross-protection against the others. However, it remains unclear how such ecologic competition via cross-immunity and antigenic mutations that allow immune escape impact influenza epidemic dynamics at the population level. Here we develop a comprehensive model-inference system and apply it to study the evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics of the three influenza types/subtypes in Hong Kong, a city of global public health significance for influenza epidemic and pandemic control. Utilizing long-term influenza surveillance data since 1998, we are able to estimate the strength of cross-immunity between each virus-pairs, the timing and frequency of punctuated changes in population immunity in response to antigenic mutations in influenza viruses, and key epidemiological parameters over the last 20 years including the 2009 pandemic. We find evidence of cross-immunity in all types/subtypes, with strongest cross-immunity from A(H1N1) against A(H3N2). Our results also suggest that A(H3N2) may undergo antigenic mutations in both summers and winters and thus monitoring the virus in both seasons may be important for vaccine development. Overall, our study reveals intricate epidemiological interactions and underscores the importance of simultaneous monitoring of population immunity, incidence rates, and viral genetic and antigenic changes.

Fifty Years of Influenza A(H3N2) Following the Pandemic of 1968

In 2018, the world commemorated the centennial of the 1918 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic, the deadliest pandemic in recorded history; however, little mention was made of the 50th anniversary of the 1968 A(H3N2) pandemic. Although pandemic morbidity and mortality were much lower in 1968 than in 1918, influenza A(H3N2) virus infections have become the leading cause of seasonal influenza illness and death over the last 50 years, with more than twice the number of hospitalizations from A(H3N2) as from A(H1N1) during the past six seasons. We review the emergence, progression, clinical course, etiology, epidemiology, and treatment of the 1968 pandemic and highlight the short- and long-term impact associated with A(H3N2) viruses. The 1968 H3N2 pandemic and its ongoing sequelae underscore the need for improved seasonal and pandemic influenza prevention, control, preparedness, and response efforts.

Demographic, clinical, and virological characteristics of patients with a laboratory-confirmed diagnosis of influenza during three consecutive seasons, 2015/2016-2017/18, in the Islamic Republic of Iran

BACKGROUND

There are minimal data on the differences in demographics, clinical presentations and outcomes for patients with different types and sub-types of influenza in the Middle East.

OBJECTIVES

To use population-based data from Iran to investigate factors associated with unfavorable disease outcome.

STUDY DESIGN

Clinical data were compiled from the Iranian Ministry of Health for patients of all ages who fulfilled the severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) definition according to World Health Organization criteriatested for any reason and found to have and had laboratory proven influenza September 21, 2015 through March 20, 2018. Pulmonary, cardiac, renal, hematologic and neurologic complications were recorded. Results were compared by type, age, gender and health status. Multivariate analysis was used to analyze risk factors for complications and death.

RESULTS

Of 11,080 enrolled patients, 10,046 (90.7 %) were inpatients, 2254 (20.4 %) were children, 8403 (75.8 %) had influenza A, 2599 (23.5 %) had influenza B, and 78 (0.7 %) had unidentified types. Fever was less common in older patients (OR 0.99; 95 % CI 0.98-0.99, p < 0.001 and in those with comorbidity (OR 0.87; 95 % CI 0.77-0.97, p = 0.013). Although the rate of complications was lower with A(H1N1) pdm09 influenza than with A(H3N2) infection (12.8 % versus 15.6 %, p = 0.001), the mortality rate was higher (7.0 % versus 3.0 %, p < 0.001). Complications occurred more often during late versus early influenza season (OR 1.22; 95 % CI 1.08-1.37, p = 0.002). Patients with type B influenza (OR 0.85; 95 % CI 0.74-0.98, p = 0.025), or who presented with sore throat (OR 0.74; 95 % CI 0.65-0.84, p < 0.001) were less likely to develop complications. The risk of developing complications was increased in patients who had chronic heart disease (OR 1.51; 95 % CI 1.29-1.76, p < 0.001), chronic pulmonary disease (OR 1.62; 95 % CI 1.37-1.91, p < 0.001), diabetes (OR 1.24; 95 % CI 1.03-1.50, p = 022), or epilepsy (OR 1.55; 95 % CI 1.17-2.05). Older age and male gender increased the risk of death but not of complications.

CONCLUSIONS

The clinical features, complications and outcomes of influenza vary by age and by viral type and sub-type. Comorbidites appear to be more important than age in predicting complications.

Childhood immune imprinting to influenza A shapes birth year-specific risk during seasonal H1N1 and H3N2 epidemics

Across decades of co-circulation in humans, influenza A subtypes H1N1 and H3N2 have caused seasonal epidemics characterized by different age distributions of cases and mortality. H3N2 causes the majority of severe, clinically attended cases in high-risk elderly cohorts, and the majority of overall deaths, whereas H1N1 causes fewer deaths overall, and cases shifted towards young and middle-aged adults. These contrasting age profiles may result from differences in childhood imprinting to H1N1 and H3N2 or from differences in evolutionary rate between subtypes. Here we analyze a large epidemiological surveillance dataset to test whether childhood immune imprinting shapes seasonal influenza epidemiology, and if so, whether it acts primarily via homosubtypic immune memory or via broader, heterosubtypic memory. We also test the impact of evolutionary differences between influenza subtypes on age distributions of cases. Likelihood-based model comparison shows that narrow, within-subtype imprinting shapes seasonal influenza risk alongside age-specific risk factors. The data do not support a strong effect of evolutionary rate, or of broadly protective imprinting that acts across subtypes. Our findings emphasize that childhood exposures can imprint a lifelong immunological bias toward particular influenza subtypes, and that these cohort-specific biases shape epidemic age distributions. As a consequence, newer and less "senior" antibody responses acquired later in life do not provide the same strength of protection as responses imprinted in childhood. Finally, we project that the relatively low mortality burden of H1N1 may increase in the coming decades, as cohorts that lack H1N1-specific imprinting eventually reach old age.

Paradoxical clade- and age-specific vaccine effectiveness during the 2018/19 influenza A(H3N2) epidemic in Canada: potential imprint-regulated effect of vaccine (I-REV)

IntroductionThe Canadian Sentinel Practitioner Surveillance Network reports vaccine effectiveness (VE) for the 2018/19 influenza A(H3N2) epidemic.AimTo explain a paradoxical signal of increased clade 3C.3a risk among 35-54-year-old vaccinees, we hypothesise childhood immunological imprinting and a cohort effect following the 1968 influenza A(H3N2) pandemic.MethodsWe assessed VE by test-negative design for influenza A(H3N2) overall and for co-circulating clades 3C.2a1b and 3C.3a. VE variation by age in 2018/19 was compared with amino acid variation in the haemagglutinin glycoprotein by year since 1968.ResultsInfluenza A(H3N2) VE was 17% (95% CI: -13 to 39) overall: 27% (95% CI: -7 to 50) for 3C.2a1b and -32% (95% CI: -119 to 21) for 3C.3a. Among 20-64-year-olds, VE was -7% (95% CI: -56 to 26): 6% (95% CI: -49 to 41) for 3C.2a1b and -96% (95% CI: -277 to -2) for 3C.3a. Clade 3C.3a VE showed a pronounced negative dip among 35-54-year-olds in whom the odds of medically attended illness were > 4-fold increased for vaccinated vs unvaccinated participants (p < 0.005). This age group was primed in childhood to influenza A(H3N2) viruses that for two decades following the 1968 pandemic bore a serine at haemagglutinin position 159, in common with contemporary 3C.3a viruses but mismatched to 3C.2a vaccine strains instead bearing tyrosine.DiscussionImprinting by the first childhood influenza infection is known to confer long-lasting immunity focused toward priming epitopes. Our findings suggest vaccine mismatch may negatively interact with imprinted immunity. The immunological mechanisms for imprint-regulated effect of vaccine (I-REV) warrant investigation.

Assessment of population susceptibility to upcoming seasonal influenza epidemic strain using interepidemic emerging influenza virus strains

Seasonal influenza virus epidemics have a major impact on healthcare systems. Data on population susceptibility to emerging influenza virus strains during the interepidemic period can guide planning for resource allocation of an upcoming influenza season. This study sought to assess the population susceptibility to representative emerging influenza virus strains collected during the interepidemic period. The microneutralisation antibody titers (MN titers) of a human serum panel against representative emerging influenza strains collected during the interepidemic period before the 2018/2019 winter influenza season (H1N1-inter and H3N2-inter) were compared with those against influenza strains representative of previous epidemics (H1N1-pre and H3N2-pre). A multifaceted approach, incorporating both genetic and antigenic data, was used in selecting these representative influenza virus strains for the MN assay. A significantly higher proportion of individuals had a ⩾four-fold reduction in MN titers between H1N1-inter and H1N1-pre than that between H3N2-inter and H3N2-pre (28.5% (127/445) vs. 4.9% (22/445), P < 0.001). The geometric mean titer (GMT) of H1N1-inter was significantly lower than that of H1N1-pre (381 (95% CI 339-428) vs. 713 (95% CI 641-792), P < 0.001), while there was no significant difference in the GMT between H3N2-inter and H3N2-pre. Since A(H1N1) predominated the 2018-2019 winter influenza epidemic, our results corroborated the epidemic subtype.