Phylogenetic inference of reciprocal effects between geographic range evolution and diversification

Reliable biogeography requires fossils: insights from a new species-level phylogeny of extinct and living carnivores

A central objective of historical biogeography is to understand where clades originated and how they moved across space and over time. However, given the dynamic history of ecosystem changes in response to climate change and geological events, the manifold long-distance dispersals over evolutionary timescales, and regional and global extinctions, it remains uncertain how reliable inferences based solely on extant taxa can be achieved. Using a novel species-level phylogeny of all known extant and extinct species of the mammalian order Carnivora and related extinct groups, we show that far more precise and accurate ancestral areas can be estimated by fully integrating extinct species into the analyses, rather than solely relying on extant species or identifying ancestral areas only based on the geography of the oldest fossils. Through a series of simulations, we further show that this conclusion is robust under realistic scenarios in which the unknown extinct taxa represent a biased subset of all extinct species. Our results highlight the importance of integrating fossil taxa into a phylogenetic framework to further improve our understanding of historical biogeography and reveal the dynamic dispersal and diversification history of carnivores.

Investigating historical drivers of latitudinal gradients in polyploid plant biogeography: A multiclade perspective

PREMISE

The proportion of polyploid plants in a community increases with latitude, and different hypotheses have been proposed about which factors drive this pattern. Here, we aimed to understand the historical causes of the latitudinal polyploidy gradient using a combination of ancestral state reconstruction methods. Specifically, we assessed whether (1) polyploidization enables movement to higher latitudes (i.e., polyploidization precedes occurrences in higher latitudes) or (2) higher latitudes facilitate polyploidization (i.e., occurrence in higher latitudes precedes polyploidization).

METHODS

We reconstructed the ploidy states and ancestral niches of 1032 angiosperm species at four paleoclimatic time slices ranging from 3.3 million years ago to the present, comprising taxa from four well-represented clades: Onagraceae, Primulaceae, Solanum (Solanaceae), and Pooideae (Poaceae). We used ancestral niche reconstruction models alongside a customized discrete character evolution model to allow reconstruction of states at specific time slices. Patterns of latitudinal movement were reconstructed and compared in relation to inferred ploidy shifts.

RESULTS

No single hypothesis applied equally well across all analyzed clades. While significant differences in median latitudinal occurrence were detected in the largest clade, Poaceae, no significant differences were detected in latitudinal movement in any clade.

CONCLUSIONS

Our preliminary study is the first to attempt to connect ploidy changes to continuous latitudinal movement, but we cannot favor one hypothesis over another. Given that patterns seem to be clade-specific, more clades must be analyzed in future studies for generalities to be drawn.

Tropical Origin, Global Diversification, and Dispersal in the Pond Damselflies (Coenagrionoidea) Revealed by a New Molecular Phylogeny

The processes responsible for the formation of Earth's most conspicuous diversity pattern, the latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG), remain unexplored for many clades in the Tree of Life. Here, we present a densely sampled and dated molecular phylogeny for the most speciose clade of damselflies worldwide (Odonata: Coenagrionoidea) and investigate the role of time, macroevolutionary processes, and biome-shift dynamics in shaping the LDG in this ancient insect superfamily. We used process-based biogeographic models to jointly infer ancestral ranges and speciation times and to characterize within-biome dispersal and biome-shift dynamics across the cosmopolitan distribution of Coenagrionoidea. We also investigated temporal and biome-dependent variation in diversification rates. Our results uncover a tropical origin of pond damselflies and featherlegs ~105 Ma, while highlighting the uncertainty of ancestral ranges within the tropics in deep time. Even though diversification rates have declined since the origin of this clade, global climate change and biome-shifts have slowly increased diversity in warm- and cold-temperate areas, where lineage turnover rates have been relatively higher. This study underscores the importance of biogeographic origin and time to diversify as important drivers of the LDG in pond damselflies and their relatives, while diversification dynamics have instead resulted in the formation of ephemeral species in temperate regions. Biome-shifts, although limited by tropical niche conservatism, have been the main factor reducing the steepness of the LDG in the last 30 Myr. With ongoing climate change and increasing northward range expansions of many damselfly taxa, the LDG may become less pronounced. Our results support recent calls to unify biogeographic and macroevolutionary approaches to improve our understanding of how latitudinal diversity gradients are formed and why they vary across time and among taxa.

Transitions between colour mechanisms affect speciation dynamics and range distributions of birds

Several ecogeographical 'rules' have been proposed to explain colour variation at broad spatial and phylogenetic scales but these rarely consider whether colours are based on pigments or structural colours. However, mechanism can have profound effects on the function and evolution of colours. Here, we combine geographic information, climate data and colour mechanism at broad phylogenetic (9,409 species) and spatial scales (global) to determine how transitions between pigmentary and structural colours influence speciation dynamics and range distributions in birds. Among structurally coloured species, we find that rapid dispersal into tropical regions drove the accumulation of iridescent species, whereas the build-up of non-iridescent species in the tropics was driven by a combination of dispersal and faster in situ evolution in the tropics. These results could be explained by pleiotropic links between colouration and dispersal behaviour or ecological factors influencing colonization success. These data elucidate geographic patterns of colouration at a global scale and provide testable hypotheses for future work on birds and other animals with structural colours.

A Diffusion-Based Approach for Simulating Forward-in-Time State-Dependent Speciation and Extinction Dynamics

We establish a general framework using a diffusion approximation to simulate forward-in-time state counts or frequencies for cladogenetic state-dependent speciation-extinction (ClaSSE) models. We apply the framework to various two- and three-region geographic-state speciation-extinction (GeoSSE) models. We show that the species range state dynamics simulated under tree-based and diffusion-based processes are comparable. We derive a method to infer rate parameters that are compatible with given observed stationary state frequencies and obtain an analytical result to compute stationary state frequencies for a given set of rate parameters. We also describe a procedure to find the time to reach the stationary frequencies of a ClaSSE model using our diffusion-based approach, which we demonstrate using a worked example for a two-region GeoSSE model. Finally, we discuss how the diffusion framework can be applied to formalize relationships between evolutionary patterns and processes under state-dependent diversification scenarios.

Eco-evolutionary evidence for the global diversity pattern of Cycas (Cycadaceae)

The evolution of the latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG), characterized by a peak in diversity toward the tropics, has captured significant attention in evolutionary biology and ecology. However, the inverse LDG (i-LDG) mechanism, wherein species richness increases toward the poles, remains inadequately explored. Cycads are among one of the oldest lineages of extant seed plants and have undergone extensive diversification in the tropics. Intriguingly, the extant cycad abundance exhibits an i-LDG pattern, and the underlying causes for this phenomenon remain largely elusive. Here, using 1,843 nuclear genes from a nearly complete sampling, we conducted comprehensive phylogenomic analyses to establish a robust species-level phylogeny for Cycas, the largest genus within cycads. We then reconstructed the spatial-temporal dynamics and integrated global environmental data to evaluate the roles of species ages, diversification rates, contemporary environment, and conservatism to ancestral niches in shaping the i-LDG pattern. We found Cycas experienced decreased diversification rates, coupled with the cooling temperature since its origin in the Eocene from continental Asia. Different regions have distinctively contributed to the formation of i-LDG for Cycas, with the northern hemisphere acting as evolutionary museums and the southern hemisphere serving as cradles. Moreover, water-related climate variables, specifically precipitation seasonality and potential evapotranspiration, were identified as paramount factors constraining Cycas species richness in the rainforest biome near the equator. Notably, the adherence to ancestral monsoonal climates emerges as a critical factor in sustaining the diversity pattern. This study underscores the imperative of integrating both evolutionary and ecological approaches to comprehensively unravel the mechanisms underpinning global biodiversity patterns.

Fossil-informed biogeographic analysis suggests Eurasian regionalization in crown Squamata during the early Jurassic

Background

Squamata (lizards, snakes, and amphisbaenians) is a Triassic lineage with an extensive and complex biogeographic history, yet no large-scale study has reconstructed the ancestral range of early squamate lineages. The fossil record indicates a broadly Pangaean distribution by the end- Cretaceous, though many lineages (e.g., Paramacellodidae, Mosasauria, Polyglyphanodontia) subsequently went extinct. Thus, the origin and occupancy of extant radiations is unclear and may have been localized within Pangaea to specific plates, with potential regionalization to distinct Laurasian and Gondwanan landmasses during the Mesozoic in some groups.

Methods

We used recent tectonic models to code extant and fossil squamate distributions occurring on nine discrete plates for 9,755 species, with Jurassic and Cretaceous fossil constraints from three extinct lineages. We modeled ancestral ranges for crown Squamata from an extant-only molecular phylogeny using a suite of biogeographic models accommodating different evolutionary processes and fossil-based node constraints from known Jurassic and Cretaceous localities. We hypothesized that the best-fit models would not support a full Pangaean distribution (i.e., including all areas) for the origin of crown Squamata, but would instead show regionalization to specific areas within the fragmenting supercontinent, likely in the Northern Hemisphere where most early squamate fossils have been found.

Results

Incorporating fossil data reconstructs a localized origin within Pangaea, with early regionalization of extant lineages to Eurasia and Laurasia, while Gondwanan regionalization did not occur until the middle Cretaceous for Alethinophidia, Scolecophidia, and some crown Gekkotan lineages. While the Mesozoic history of extant squamate biogeography can be summarized as a Eurasian origin with dispersal out of Laurasia into Gondwana, their Cenozoic history is complex with multiple events (including secondary and tertiary recolonizations) in several directions. As noted by previous authors, squamates have likely utilized over-land range expansion, land-bridge colonization, and trans-oceanic dispersal. Tropical Gondwana and Eurasia hold more ancient lineages than the Holarctic (Rhineuridae being a major exception), and some asymmetries in colonization (e.g., to North America from Eurasia during the Cenozoic through Beringia) deserve additional study. Future studies that incorporate fossil branches, rather than as node constraints, into the reconstruction can be used to explore this history further.

Climatic and biogeographic processes underlying the diversification of the pantropical flowering plant family Annonaceae

Tropical forests harbor the richest biodiversity among terrestrial ecosystems, but few studies have addressed the underlying processes of species diversification in these ecosystems. We use the pantropical flowering plant family Annonaceae as a study system to investigate how climate and biogeographic events contribute to diversification. A super-matrix phylogeny comprising 835 taxa (34% of Annonaceae species) based on eight chloroplast regions was used in this study. We show that global temperature may better explain the recent rapid diversification in Annonaceae than time and constant models. Accelerated accumulation of niche divergence (around 15 Ma) lags behind the increase of diversification rate (around 25 Ma), reflecting a heterogeneous transition to recent diversity increases. Biogeographic events are related to only two of the five diversification rate shifts detected. Shifts in niche evolution nevertheless appear to be associated with increasingly seasonal environments. Our results do not support the direct correlation of any particular climatic niche shifts or historical biogeographical event with shifts in diversification rate. Instead, we suggest that Annonaceae diversification can lead to later niche divergence as a result of increasing interspecific competition arising from species accumulation. Shifts in niche evolution appear to be associated with increasingly seasonal environments. Our results highlight the complexity of diversification in taxa with long evolutionary histories.

Historical biogeography and evolutionary diversification of Lilium (Liliaceae): New insights from plastome phylogenomics

Here, we infer the historical biogeography and evolutionary diversification of the genus Lilium. For this purpose, we used the complete plastomes of 64 currently accepted species in the genus Lilium (14 plastomes were newly sequenced) to recover the phylogenetic backbone of the genus and a time-calibrated phylogenetic framework to estimate biogeographical history scenarios and evolutionary diversification rates of Lilium. Our results suggest that ancient climatic changes and geological tectonic activities jointly shaped the distribution range and drove evolutionary radiation of Lilium, including the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum (MMCO), the late Miocene global cooling, as well as the successive uplift of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) and the strengthening of the monsoon climate in East Asia during the late Miocene and the Pliocene. This case study suggests that the unique geological and climatic events in the Neogene of East Asia, in particular the uplift of QTP and the enhancement of monsoonal climate, may have played an essential role in formation of uneven distribution of plant diversity in the Northern Hemisphere.

Rapid in situ diversification rates in Rhamnaceae explain the parallel evolution of high diversity in temperate biomes from global to local scales

The macroevolutionary processes that have shaped biodiversity across the temperate realm remain poorly understood and may have resulted from evolutionary dynamics related to diversification rates, dispersal rates, and colonization times, closely coupled with Cenozoic climate change. We integrated phylogenomic, environmental ordination, and macroevolutionary analyses for the cosmopolitan angiosperm family Rhamnaceae to disentangle the evolutionary processes that have contributed to high species diversity within and across temperate biomes. Our results show independent colonization of environmentally similar but geographically separated temperate regions mainly during the Oligocene, consistent with the global expansion of temperate biomes. High global, regional, and local temperate diversity was the result of high in situ diversification rates, rather than high immigration rates or accumulation time, except for Southern China, which was colonized much earlier than the other regions. The relatively common lineage dispersals out of temperate hotspots highlight strong source-sink dynamics across the cosmopolitan distribution of Rhamnaceae. The proliferation of temperate environments since the Oligocene may have provided the ecological opportunity for rapid in situ diversification of Rhamnaceae across the temperate realm. Our study illustrates the importance of high in situ diversification rates for the establishment of modern temperate biomes and biodiversity hotspots across spatial scales.

Deep Learning from Phylogenies for Diversification Analyses

Birth-death (BD) models are widely used in combination with species phylogenies to study past diversification dynamics. Current inference approaches typically rely on likelihood-based methods. These methods are not generalizable, as a new likelihood formula must be established each time a new model is proposed; for some models, such a formula is not even tractable. Deep learning can bring solutions in such situations, as deep neural networks can be trained to learn the relation between simulations and parameter values as a regression problem. In this paper, we adapt a recently developed deep learning method from pathogen phylodynamics to the case of diversification inference, and we extend its applicability to the case of the inference of state-dependent diversification models from phylogenies associated with trait data. We demonstrate the accuracy and time efficiency of the approach for the time-constant homogeneous BD model and the Binary-State Speciation and Extinction model. Finally, we illustrate the use of the proposed inference machinery by reanalyzing a phylogeny of primates and their associated ecological role as seed dispersers. Deep learning inference provides at least the same accuracy as likelihood-based inference while being faster by several orders of magnitude, offering a promising new inference approach for the deployment of future models in the field.

PhyloJunction: a computational framework for simulating, developing, and teaching evolutionary models

We introduce PhyloJunction, a computational framework designed to facilitate the prototyping, testing, and characterization of evolutionary models. PhyloJunction is distributed as an open-source Python library that can be used to implement a variety of models, through its flexible graphical modeling architecture and dedicated model specification language. Model design and use are exposed to users via command-line and graphical interfaces, which integrate the steps of simulating, summarizing, and visualizing data. This paper describes the features of PhyloJunction - which include, but are not limited to, a general implementation of a popular family of phylogenetic diversification models - and, moving forward, how it may be expanded to not only include new models, but to also become a platform for conducting and teaching statistical learning.

The relationship between geographic range size and rates of species diversification

Range size is a universal characteristic of every biological species, and is often assumed to affect diversification rate. There are strong theoretical arguments that large-ranged species should have higher rates of diversification. On the other hand, the observation that small-ranged species are often phylogenetically clustered might indicate high diversification of small-ranged species. This discrepancy between theory and the data may be caused by the fact that typical methods of data analysis do not account for range size changes during speciation. Here we use a cladogenetic state-dependent diversification model applied to mammals to show that range size changes during speciation are ubiquitous and small-ranged species indeed diversify generally slower, as theoretically expected. However, both range size and diversification are strongly influenced by idiosyncratic and spatially localized events, such as colonization of an archipelago or a mountain system, which often override the general pattern of range size evolution.

Diversification Models Conflate Likelihood and Prior, and Cannot be Compared Using Conventional Model-Comparison Tools

Time-calibrated phylogenetic trees are a tremendously powerful tool for studying evolutionary, ecological, and epidemiological phenomena. Such trees are predominantly inferred in a Bayesian framework, with the phylogeny itself treated as a parameter with a prior distribution (a "tree prior"). However, we show that the tree "parameter" consists, in part, of data, in the form of taxon samples. Treating the tree as a parameter fails to account for these data and compromises our ability to compare among models using standard techniques (e.g., marginal likelihoods estimated using path-sampling and stepping-stone sampling algorithms). Since accuracy of the inferred phylogeny strongly depends on how well the tree prior approximates the true diversification process that gave rise to the tree, the inability to accurately compare competing tree priors has broad implications for applications based on time-calibrated trees. We outline potential remedies to this problem, and provide guidance for researchers interested in assessing the fit of tree models. [Bayes factors; Bayesian model comparison; birth-death models; divergence-time estimation; lineage diversification].

Species richness disparity in tropical terrestrial herbaceous floras: evolutionary insight from Collabieae (Orchidaceae)

Species richness is spatially heterogeneous even in the hyperdiverse tropical floras. The main cause of uneven species richness among the four tropical regions are hot debated. To date, higher net diversification rates and/or longer colonization time have been usually proposed to contribute to this pattern. However, there are few studies to clarify the species richness patterns in tropical terrestrial floras. The terrestrial tribe Collabieae (Orchidaceae) unevenly distributes in the tropical regions with a diverse and endemic center in Asia. Twenty-one genera 127 species of Collabieae and 26 DNA regions were used to reconstruct the phylogeny and infer the biogeographical processes. We compared the topologies, diversification rates and niche rates of Collabieae and regional lineages on empirical samplings and different simulated samplings fractions respectively. Our results suggested that the Collabieae originated in Asia at the earliest Oligocene, and then independently spread to Africa, Central America, and Oceania since the Miocene via long-distance dispersal. These results based on empirical data and simulated data were similar. BAMM, GeoSSE and niche analyses inferred that the Asian lineages had higher net diversification and niche rates than those of Oceanian and African lineages on the empirical and simulated analyses. Precipitation is the most important factor for Collabieae, and the Asian lineage has experienced more stable and humid climate, which may promote the higher net diversification rate. Besides, the longer colonization time may also be associated with the Asian lineages' diversity. These findings provided a better understanding of the regional diversity heterogeneity in tropical terrestrial herbaceous floras.

Adaptations to a cold climate promoted social evolution in Asian colobine primates

The biological mechanisms that underpin primate social evolution remain poorly understood. Asian colobines display a range of social organizations, which makes them good models for investigating social evolution. By integrating ecological, geological, fossil, behavioral, and genomic analyses, we found that colobine primates that inhabit colder environments tend to live in larger, more complex groups. Specifically, glacial periods during the past 6 million years promoted the selection of genes involved in cold-related energy metabolism and neurohormonal regulation. More-efficient dopamine and oxytocin pathways developed in odd-nosed monkeys, which may have favored the prolongation of maternal care and lactation, increasing infant survival in cold environments. These adaptive changes appear to have strengthened interindividual affiliation, increased male-male tolerance, and facilitated the stepwise aggregation from independent one-male groups to large multilevel societies.

Species assemblages of insular Caribbean Sticta (lichenized Ascomycota: Peltigerales) over ecological and evolutionary time scales

Phylogenetic approaches to macroevolution have provided unique insight into evolutionary relationships, ancestral ranges, and diversification patterns for many taxa. Similar frameworks have also been developed to assess how environmental and/or spatial variables shape species diversity and distribution patterns at different spatial/temporal scales, but studies implementing these are still scarce for many groups, including lichens. Here, we combine phylogeny-based ancestral range reconstruction and diversification analysis with community phylogenetics to reconstruct evolutionary origins and assess patterns of taxonomic and phylogenetic relatedness between island communities of the lichenized fungal genus Sticta in the Caribbean. Sampling was carried out in the Greater Antilles (Cuba, Jamaica, Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico) and Lesser Antilles (Dominica, Guadeloupe, and Martinique). Data for six molecular loci were obtained for 64 candidate Caribbean species and used to perform both macroevolutionary phylogenetics, which also included worldwide taxa, and phylobetadiversity analyses, which emphasized island-level communities. Our work uncovered high levels of island endemism (∼59%) in Caribbean Sticta. We estimate initial colonization of the region occurred about 19 Mya from a South American ancestor. Reverse migration events by Caribbean lineages to South America were also inferred. We found no evidence for increased diversification rates associated with range expansion into the Caribbean. Taxonomic and phylogenetic turnover between island-level communities was most strongly correlated with environmental variation rather than with geographic distance. We observed less dissimilarity among communities from the Dominican Republic and Jamaica than between these islands and the Lesser Antilles/Puerto Rico. High levels of hidden diversity and endemism in Caribbean Sticta reaffirm that islands are crucial for the maintenance of global biodiversity of lichenized fungi. Altogether, our findings suggest that strong evolutionary links exist between Caribbean and South American biotas but at regional scales, species assemblages exhibit complex taxonomic and phylogenetic relationships that are determined by local environments and shared evolutionary histories.

The build-up of the present-day tropical diversity of tetrapods

The extraordinary number of species in the tropics when compared to the extra-tropics is probably the most prominent and consistent pattern in biogeography, suggesting that overarching processes regulate this diversity gradient. A major challenge to characterizing which processes are at play relies on quantifying how the frequency and determinants of tropical and extra-tropical speciation, extinction, and dispersal events shaped evolutionary radiations. We address this question by developing and applying spatiotemporal phylogenetic and paleontological models of diversification for tetrapod species incorporating paleoenvironmental variation. Our phylogenetic model results show that area, energy, or species richness did not uniformly affect speciation rates across tetrapods and dispute expectations of a latitudinal gradient in speciation rates. Instead, both neontological and fossil evidence coincide in underscoring the role of extra-tropical extinctions and the outflow of tropical species in shaping biodiversity. These diversification dynamics accurately predict present-day levels of species richness across latitudes and uncover temporal idiosyncrasies but spatial generality across the major tetrapod radiations.

Trait-dependent diversification in angiosperms: Patterns, models and data

Variation in species richness across the tree of life, accompanied by the incredible variety of ecological and morphological characteristics found in nature, has inspired many studies to link traits with species diversification. Angiosperms are a highly diverse group that has fundamentally shaped life on earth since the Cretaceous, and illustrate how species diversification affects ecosystem functioning. Numerous traits and processes have been linked to differences in species richness within this group, but we know little about their relative importance and how they interact. Here, we synthesised data from 152 studies that used state-dependent speciation and extinction (SSE) models on angiosperm clades. Intrinsic traits related to reproduction and morphology were often linked to diversification but a set of universal drivers did not emerge as traits did not have consistent effects across clades. Importantly, SSE model results were correlated to data set properties - trees that were larger, older or less well-sampled tended to yield trait-dependent outcomes. We compared these properties to recommendations for SSE model use and provide a set of best practices to follow when designing studies and reporting results. Finally, we argue that SSE model inferences should be considered in a larger context incorporating species' ecology, demography and genetics.

Biogeographic history of a large clade of ectomycorrhizal fungi, the Russulaceae, in the Neotropics and adjacent regions

The biogeography of neotropical fungi remains poorly understood. Here, we reconstruct the origins and diversification of neotropical lineages in one of the largest clades of ectomycorrhizal fungi in the globally widespread family Russulaceae. We inferred a supertree of 3285 operational taxonomic units, representing worldwide internal transcribed spacer sequences. We reconstructed biogeographic history and diversification and identified lineages in the Neotropics and adjacent Patagonia. The ectomycorrhizal Russulaceae have a tropical African origin. The oldest lineages in tropical South America, most with African sister groups, date to the mid-Eocene, possibly coinciding with a boreotropical migration corridor. There were several transatlantic dispersal events from Africa more recently. Andean and Central American lineages mostly have north-temperate origins and are associated with North Andean uplift and the general north-south biotic interchange across the Panama isthmus, respectively. Patagonian lineages have Australasian affinities. Diversification rates in tropical South America and other tropical areas are lower than in temperate areas. Neotropical Russulaceae have multiple biogeographic origins since the mid-Eocene involving dispersal and co-migration. Discontinuous distributions of host plants may explain low diversification rates of tropical lowland ectomycorrhizal fungi. Deeply diverging neotropical fungal lineages need to be better documented.

Mapping species diversification metrics in macroecology: Prospects and challenges

The intersection of macroecology and macroevolution is one of today’s most active research in biology. In the last decade, we have witnessed a steady increment of macroecological studies that use metrics attempting to capture macroevolutionary processes to explain present-day biodiversity patterns. Evolutionary explanations of current species richness gradients are fundamental for understanding how diversity accumulates in a region. Although multiple hypotheses have been proposed to explain the patterns we observe in nature, it is well-known that the present-day diversity patterns result from speciation, extinction, colonization from nearby areas, or a combination of these macroevolutionary processes. Whether these metrics capture macroevolutionary processes across space is unknown. Some tip-rate metrics calculated directly from a phylogenetic tree (e.g., mean root distance -MRD-; mean diversification rate -mDR-) seem to return very similar geographical patterns regardless of how they are estimated (e.g., using branch lengths explicitly or not). Model-based tip-rate metrics —those estimated using macroevolutionary mixtures, e.g., the BAMM approach— seem to provide better net diversification estimates than only speciation rates. We argue that the lack of appropriate estimates of extinction and dispersal rates in phylogenetic trees may strongly limit our inferences about how species richness gradients have emerged at spatial and temporal scales. Here, we present a literature review about this topic and empirical comparisons between select taxa with several of these metrics. We implemented a simple null model approach to evaluate whether mapping of these metrics deviates from a random sampling process. We show that phylogenetic metrics by themselves are relatively poor at capturing speciation, extinction, and dispersal processes across geographical gradients. Furthermore, we provide evidence of how parametric biogeographic methods can improve our inference of past events and, therefore, our conclusions about the evolutionary processes driving biodiversity patterns. We recommend that further studies include several approaches simultaneously (e.g., spatial diversification modeling, parametric biogeographic methods, simulations) to disentangle the relative role of speciation, extinction, and dispersal in the generation and maintenance of species richness gradients at regional and global scales.

Integrative Phylogenetics: Tools for Palaeontologists to Explore the Tree of Life

The modern era of analytical and quantitative palaeobiology has only just begun, integrating methods such as morphological and molecular phylogenetics and divergence time estimation, as well as phenotypic and molecular rates of evolution. Calibrating the tree of life to geological time is at the nexus of many disparate disciplines, from palaeontology to molecular systematics and from geochronology to comparative genomics. Creating an evolutionary time scale of the major events that shaped biodiversity is key to all of these fields and draws from each of them. Different methodological approaches and data employed in various disciplines have traditionally made collaborative research efforts difficult among these disciplines. However, the development of new methods is bridging the historical gap between fields, providing a holistic perspective on organismal evolutionary history, integrating all of the available evidence from living and fossil species. Because phylogenies with only extant taxa do not contain enough information to either calibrate the tree of life or fully infer macroevolutionary dynamics, phylogenies should preferably include both extant and extinct taxa, which can only be achieved through the inclusion of phenotypic data. This integrative phylogenetic approach provides ample and novel opportunities for evolutionary biologists to benefit from palaeontological data to help establish an evolutionary time scale and to test core macroevolutionary hypotheses about the drivers of biological diversification across various dimensions of organisms.

Robust Phylodynamic Analysis of Genetic Sequencing Data from Structured Populations

The multi-type birth–death model with sampling is a phylodynamic model which enables the quantification of past population dynamics in structured populations based on phylogenetic trees. The BEAST 2 package bdmm implements an algorithm for numerically computing the probability density of a phylogenetic tree given the population dynamic parameters under this model. In the initial release of bdmm, analyses were computationally limited to trees consisting of up to approximately 250 genetic samples. We implemented important algorithmic changes to bdmm which dramatically increased the number of genetic samples that could be analyzed and which improved the numerical robustness and efficiency of the calculations. Including more samples led to the improved precision of parameter estimates, particularly for structured models with a high number of inferred parameters. Furthermore, we report on several model extensions to bdmm, inspired by properties common to empirical datasets. We applied this improved algorithm to two partly overlapping datasets of the Influenza A virus HA sequences sampled around the world—one with 500 samples and the other with only 175—for comparison. We report and compare the global migration patterns and seasonal dynamics inferred from each dataset. In this way, we show the information that is gained by analyzing the bigger dataset, which became possible with the presented algorithmic changes to bdmm. In summary, bdmm allows for the robust, faster, and more general phylodynamic inference of larger datasets.

Fingerprints of climatic changes through the late Cenozoic in southern Asian flora: Magnolia section Michelia (Magnoliaceae)

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Ongoing global warming is a challenge for humankind. A series of drastic climatic changes have been proven to have occurred throughout the Cenozoic based on a variety of geological evidence, which helps to better understand our planet's future climate. Notably, extant biomes have recorded drastic environmental shifts. The climate in southern Asia, which hosts high biodiversity, is deeply impacted by the Asian monsoon. The origins and evolutionary dynamics of biomes occurring between the tropics and sub-tropics in southern Asia have probably been deeply impacted by climatic changes; however, these aspects remain poorly studied. We tested whether the evolutionary dynamics of the above biomes have recorded the drastic, late Cenozoic environmental shifts, by focusing on Magnolia section Michelia of the family Magnoliaceae.

METHODS

We established a fine time-calibrated phylogeny of M. section Michelia based on complete plastid genomes and inferred its ancestral ranges. Finally, we estimated the evolutionary dynamics of this section through time, determining its diversification rate and the dispersal events that occurred between tropical and sub-tropical areas.

KEY RESULTS

The tropical origin of M. section Michelia was dated to the late Oligocene; however, the diversification of its core group (i.e. M. section Michelia subsection Michelia) has occurred mainly from the late Miocene onward. Two key evolutionary shifts (dated approx. 8 and approx. 3 million years ago, respectively) were identified, each of them probably in response to drastic climatic changes.

CONCLUSION

Here, we inferred the underlying evolutionary dynamics of biomes in southern Asia, which probably reflect late Cenozoic climatic changes. The occurrence of modern Asian monsoons was probably fundamental for the origin of M. section Michelia; moreover, the occurrence of asymmetric dispersal events between the tropics and sub-tropics hint at an adaptation strategy of M. section Michelia to global cooling, in agreement with the tropical conservatism hypothesis.

Macroevolutionary dynamics in the transition of angiosperms to aquatic environments

Angiosperm lineages in aquatic environments are characterized by high structural and functional diversity, and wide distributions. A long-standing evolutionary riddle is what processes have caused the relatively low diversity of aquatic angiosperms compared to their terrestrial relatives. We use diversification and ancestral reconstruction models with a comprehensive > 10 000 genus angiosperm phylogeny to elucidate the macroevolutionary dynamics associated with transitions of terrestrial plants to water. Our study reveals that net diversification rates are significantly lower in aquatic than in terrestrial angiosperms due to lower speciation and higher extinction. Shifts from land to water started early in angiosperm evolution, but most events were concentrated during the last c. 25 million years. Reversals to a terrestrial habitat started only 40 million years ago, but occurred at much higher rates. Within aquatic angiosperms, the estimated pattern is one of gradual accumulation of lineages, and relatively low and constant diversification rates throughout the Cenozoic. Low diversification rates, together with infrequent water transitions, account for the low diversity of aquatic angiosperms today. The stressful conditions and small global surface of the aquatic habitat available for angiosperms are hypothesized to explain this pattern.

Wallacean and Melanesian Islands Promote Higher Rates of Diversification within the Global Passerine radiation Corvides

The complex island archipelagoes of Wallacea and Melanesia have provided empirical data behind integral theories in evolutionary biology, including allopatric speciation and island biogeography. Yet, questions regarding the relative impact of the layered biogeographic barriers, such as deep-water trenches and isolated island systems, on faunal diversification remain underexplored. One such barrier is Wallace's Line, a significant biogeographic boundary that largely separates Australian and Asian biodiversity. To assess the relative roles of biogeographic barriers-specifically isolated island systems and Wallace's Line-we investigated the tempo and mode of diversification in a diverse avian radiation, Corvides (Crows and Jays, Birds-of-paradise, Vangas, and allies). We combined a genus-level dataset of thousands of ultraconserved elements (UCEs) and a species-level, 12-gene Sanger sequence matrix to produce a well-resolved supermatrix tree that we leveraged to explore the group's historical biogeography and effects of biogeographic barriers on their macroevolutionary dynamics. The tree is well-resolved and differs substantially from what has been used extensively for past comparative analyses within this group. We confirmed that Corvides, and its major constituent clades, arose in Australia and that a burst of dispersals west across Wallace's Line occurred after the uplift of Wallacea during the mid-Miocene. We found that dispersal across this biogeographic barrier were generally rare, though westward dispersals were two times more frequent than eastward dispersals. Wallacea's central position between Sundaland and Sahul no doubt acted as a bridge for island-hopping dispersal out of Australia, across Wallace's Line, to colonize the rest of Earth. In addition, we found that the complex island archipelagoes east of Wallace's Line harbor the highest rates of net diversification and are a substantial source of colonists to continental systems on both sides of this biogeographic barrier. Our results support emerging evidence that island systems, particularly the geologically complex archipelagoes of the Indo-pacific, are drivers of species diversification.

Protracted speciation under the state-dependent speciation and extinction approach

How long does speciation take? The answer to this important question in evolutionary biology lies in the genetic difference not only among species, but also among lineages within each species. With the advance of genome sequencing in non-model organisms and the statistical tools to improve accuracy in inferring evolutionary histories among recently diverged lineages, we now have the lineage-level trees to answer these questions. However, we do not yet have an analytical tool for inferring speciation processes from these trees. What is needed is a model of speciation processes that generates both the trees and species identities of extant lineages. The model should allow calculation of the probability that certain lineages belong to certain species and have an evolutionary history consistent with the tree. Here, we propose such a model and test the model performance on both simulated data and real data. We show that maximum-likelihood estimates of the model are highly accurate and give estimates from real data that generate patterns consistent with observations. We discuss how to extend the model to account for different rates and types of speciation processes across lineages in a species group. By linking evolutionary processes on lineage level to species level, the model provides a new phylogenetic approach to study not just when speciation happened, but how speciation happened. [Micro–macro evolution; Protracted birth–death process; speciation completion rate; SSE approach.]

Past climate cooling promoted global dispersal of amphipods from Tian Shan montane lakes to circumboreal lakes

Climate changes have substantial impacts on the geographic distribution of montane lakes and evolutionary dynamics of cold-adapted species. Past climate cooling is hypothesized to have promoted the dispersal of cold-adapted species via montane lakes, while future climate warming is thought to constrain their distributions. We test this hypothesis by using phylogeographic analysis and niche modeling of the Holarctic crustacean Gammarus lacustris with global sampling comprised of 567 sequenced individuals and 3180 occurrence records. We found that the species arose in Tian Shan in Central Asia and dispersed into montane lakes along the Alps, Himalayas, Tibet, East Asia, and the North American Rocky Mountain ranges, with accelerated diversification rates outside Tian Shan. Climatically suitable regions for geographic lineages of G. lacustris were larger during cooling periods (LGM), but smaller during warming periods (Mid-Holocene). In the future (2070) scenario, potential distributions in the Himalayas, North Tibet, South Tibet and North America are predicted to expand, whereas ranges in East Asia, Europe and Tian Shan will decline. Our results suggest that Mid-Miocene-to-Pleistocene continuous cooling promoted multiple independent dispersal events out of Tian Shan due to increased availability of montane lakes via "budding" of lineages. Montane lakes are conduits through which cold-adapted amphipods globally dispersed, dominating circumboreal lakes. However, future climate warming is likely to force organisms to shift upward in altitude and northward in latitude, leading to a future change in local populations. These findings highlight the importance of conservation of montane lakes, especially in the context of climate change.

Tempo and drivers of plant diversification in the European mountain system

There is still limited consensus on the evolutionary history of species-rich temperate alpine floras due to a lack of comparable and high-quality phylogenetic data covering multiple plant lineages. Here we reconstructed when and how European alpine plant lineages diversified, i.e., the tempo and drivers of speciation events. We performed full-plastome phylogenomics and used multi-clade comparative models applied to six representative angiosperm lineages that have diversified in European mountains (212 sampled species, 251 ingroup species total). Diversification rates remained surprisingly steady for most clades, even during the Pleistocene, with speciation events being mostly driven by geographic divergence and bedrock shifts. Interestingly, we inferred asymmetrical historical migration rates from siliceous to calcareous bedrocks, and from higher to lower elevations, likely due to repeated shrinkage and expansion of high elevation habitats during the Pleistocene. This may have buffered climate-related extinctions, but prevented speciation along elevation gradients as often documented for tropical alpine floras.

Here, the authors use full-plastome phylogenomics and multiclade comparative models to reconstruct the tempo and drivers of six European Alpine angiosperm lineages before and during the Pleistocene. They find that geographic divergence and bedrock shifts drive speciation events, while diversification rates remained steady.

Phylogenetic inference of where species spread or split across barriers

SignificanceGeography molds how species evolve in space. Strong geographical barriers to movement, for instance, both inhibit dispersal between regions and allow isolated populations to diverge as new species. Weak barriers, by contrast, permit species range expansion and persistence. These factors present a conundrum: How strong must a barrier be before between-region speciation outpaces dispersal? We designed a phylogenetic model of dispersal, extinction, and speciation that allows regional features to influence rates of biogeographic change and applied it to the neotropical radiation of Anolis lizards. Separation by water induces a threefold steeper barrier to movement than equivalent distances over land. Our model will help biologists detect relationships between evolutionary processes and the spatial contexts in which they operate.

Phylogeny, diversification, and biogeography of a hemiclonal hybrid system of native Australian freshwater fishes (Gobiiformes: Gobioidei: Eleotridae: Hypseleotris)

Background

Carp gudgeons (genus Hypseleotris) are a prominent part of the Australian freshwater fish fauna, with species distributed around the western, northern, and eastern reaches of the continent. We infer a calibrated phylogeny of the genus based on nuclear ultraconserved element (UCE) sequences and using Bayesian estimation of divergence times, and use this phylogeny to investigate geographic patterns of diversification with GeoSSE. The southeastern species have hybridized to form hemiclonal lineages, and we also resolve relationships of hemiclones and compare their phylogenetic placement in the UCE phylogeny with a hypothesis based on complete mitochondrial genomes. We then use phased SNPs extracted from the UCE sequences for population structure analysis among the southeastern species and hemiclones.

Results

Hypseleotris cyprinoides, a widespread euryhaline species known from throughout the Indo-Pacific, is resolved outside the remainder of the species. Two Australian radiations comprise the bulk of Hypseleotris, one primarily in the northwestern coastal rivers and a second inhabiting the southeastern region including the Murray–Darling, Bulloo-Bancannia and Lake Eyre basins, plus coastal rivers east of the Great Dividing Range. Our phylogenetic results reveal cytonuclear discordance between the UCE and mitochondrial hypotheses, place hemiclone hybrids among their parental taxa, and indicate that the genus Kimberleyeleotris is nested within the northwestern Hypseleotris radiation along with three undescribed species. We infer a crown age for Hypseleotris of 17.3 Ma, date the radiation of Australian species at roughly 10.1 Ma, and recover the crown ages of the northwestern (excluding H. compressa) and southeastern radiations at 5.9 and 7.2 Ma, respectively. Range-dependent diversification analyses using GeoSSE indicate that speciation and extinction rates have been steady between the northwestern and southeastern Australian radiations and between smaller radiations of species in the Kimberley region and the Arnhem Plateau. Analysis of phased SNPs confirms inheritance patterns and reveals high levels of heterozygosity among the hemiclones.

Conclusions

The northwestern species have restricted ranges and likely speciated in allopatry, while the southeastern species are known from much larger areas, consistent with peripatric speciation or allopatric speciation followed by secondary contact. Species in the northwestern Kimberley region differ in shape from those in the southeast, with the Kimberley species notably more elongate and slender than the stocky southeastern species, likely due to the different topographies and flow regimes of the rivers they inhabit.

Phylogenomics and continental biogeographic disjunctions: insight from the Australian starflowers (Calytrix)

PREMISE

Continental-scale disjunctions and associated drivers are core research interests in biogeographic studies. Here, we selected a species-rich Australian plant genus (Calytrix; Myrtaceae) as a case study to investigate these patterns. Species of this endemic Australian starflower genus have a disjunct distribution across the mesic fringes of the continent and are largely absent from the arid center.

METHODS

We used high-throughput sequencing to generate unprecedented resolution and near complete species-level nuclear and plastid phylogenies for Calytrix. BioGeoBEARS and biogeographic stochastic mapping were used to infer ancestral areas, the relative contributions of vicariance and dispersal events, and directionality of dispersal.

RESULTS

Present-day disjunctions in Calytrix are explained by a combination of scenarios: (1) retreat of multiple lineages from the continental center to the more mesic fringes as Australia became progressively more arid, with subsequent extinction in the center as well as (2) origination of ancestral lineages in southwestern Australia (SWA) for species-rich clades. The SWA biodiversity hotspot is a major diversification center and the most common source area of dispersals, with multiple lineages originating in SWA and subsequently spreading to the adjacent arid Eremaean region.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that major extinction, as a result of cooling and drying of the Australian continent in the Eocene-Miocene, shaped the present-day biogeography of Calytrix. We hypothesize that this peripheral vicariance pattern, which is similar to the African Rand flora, may explain the disjunctions of many other Australian plant groups. Further studies with densely sampled phylogenies are required to test this hypothesis.

Improving inference and avoiding overinterpretation of hidden-state diversification models: Specialized plant breeding has no effect on diversification in frogs

The hidden-state speciation and extinction (HiSSE) model helps avoid spurious results when testing whether a character affects diversification rates. However, care must be taken to optimally analyze models and interpret results. Recently, Tonini et al. (TEA hereafter) studied anuran (frog and toad) diversification with HiSSE methods. They concluded that their focal state, breeding in phytotelmata, increases net diversification rates. Yet this conclusion is counterintuitive, because the state that purportedly increases net diversification rates is 14 times rarer among species than the alternative. Herein, I revisit TEA's analyses and demonstrate problems with inferring model likelihoods, conducting post hoc tests, and interpreting results. I also reevaluate their top models and find that diverse strategies are necessary to reach the parameter values that maximize each model's likelihood. In contrast to TEA, I find no support for an effect of phytotelm breeding on net diversification rates in Neotropical anurans. In particular, even though the most highly supported models include the focal character, averaging parameter estimates over hidden states shows that the focal character does not influence diversification rates. Finally, I suggest ways to better analyze and interpret complex diversification models-both state-dependent and beyond-for future studies in other organisms.

Causes and Consequences of Apparent Timescaling Across All Estimated Evolutionary Rates

Evolutionary rates play a central role in connecting micro- and macroevolution. All evolutionary rate estimates, including rates of molecular evolution, trait evolution, and lineage diversification, share a similar scaling pattern with time: The highest rates are those measured over the shortest time interval. This creates a disconnect between micro- and macroevolution, although the pattern is the opposite of what some might expect: Patterns of change over short timescales predict that evolution has tremendous potential to create variation and that potential is barely tapped by macroevolution. In this review, we discuss this shared scaling pattern across evolutionary rates. We break down possible explanations for scaling into two categories, estimation error and model misspecification, and discuss how both apply to each type of rate. We also discuss the consequences of this ubiquitous pattern, which can lead to unexpected results when comparing ratesover different timescales. Finally, after addressing purely statistical concerns, we explore a few possibilities for a shared unifying explanation across the three types of rates that results from a failure to fully understand and account for how biological processes scale over time.

Ancient volcanos as species pumps: A case study of freshwater amphipods in Northeast Asia

Volcano-tectonic processes have been viewed as primary drivers in the formation of present-day diversity. Volcanos associated with mountain uplifts drive allopatric speciation through vicariance and may impact the surrounding areas like species pump or species attractor. However, the application of these hypotheses to aquatic fauna has rarely been tested explicitly. We tested these hypotheses in the Changbai Mountains (Mts), which are one of the most typical, active volcanic ranges in Northeast (NE) Asia with a long and turbulent geological history. The Gammarus nekkensis species complex of amphipod crustaceans, widely distributed throughout NE Asia with poor dispersal abilities and a long evolutionary history, is a suitable model for testing hypotheses of species pump or species attractor. Phylogenetic and ancestral range reconstructions demonstrated that the studied amphipod originated from the Changbai Mts ~27 Ma and diverged into eastern (Clade I) and western (Clade II) clades, which corresponds well with the initial volcanic eruption of the Changbai Mts in the Late Oligocene. The subsequent diversifications of subclades CI-3, CII-1a and CII-2a were probably driven by second and third eruptions of the Changbai Mts during the Miocene. In particular, the Changbai lineages had spread to the Russian Far East multiple times since the Early Miocene, and widely colonized the region during the Pleistocene. Our discoveries suggest that the ancient volcanos of the Changbai Mts act as species pumps in NE Asia, resulted in burst of diversification around the Changbai Mts and subsequent dispersals into adjacent regions.

Modelling the tempo and mode of lineage dispersal

Lineage dispersal is a basic macroevolutionary process shaping the distribution of biodiversity. Probabilistic approaches in biogeography, epidemiology, and macroecology often model dispersal as a background process to explain extant or infer past distributions. We propose framing questions around the mode, timing, rate, and direction of lineage dispersal itself, from a lineage- or geography-centric perspective. We review available methods for modelling lineage dispersal. Likelihood- and simulation-based approaches to modelling dispersal have made progress in accounting for the variation of lineage dispersal over space, time, and branches of a phylogeny and its interaction with diversification. Methodological improvements, guided by a focus on model adequacy, will lead to more realistic models that can answer fundamental questions about the tempo and mode of lineage dispersal.

Planktivores as trophic drivers of global coral reef fish diversity patterns

One of the most prominent features of life on Earth is the uneven number of species across large spatial scales. Despite being inherently linked to energetic constraints, these gradients in species richness distribution have rarely been examined from a trophic perspective. Here we dissect the global diversity of over 3,600 coral reef fishes to reveal patterns across major trophic groups. By analyzing multiple nested spatial scales, we show that planktivores contribute disproportionally to the formation of the Indo-Australian Archipelago (IAA) marine biodiversity hotspot. Besides being "hotter" at the hotspot, planktivorous fishes display the steepest decline in species numbers with distance from the IAA when compared to other trophic groups. Surprisingly, we did not detect differences in diversification, transition, and dispersal rates in extant species phylogenies that would explain this remarkable gradient in planktivorous fish richness. Thus, we identify two potential complementary drivers for this pattern. First, exceptional levels of partitioning among planktivorous coral reef fishes were driven by temporally stable oceanographic conditions and abundant planktonic resources in the IAA. Second, extinctions of planktivores outside the IAA have been particularly pronounced during Quaternary climate fluctuations. Overall, our results highlight trophic ecology as an important component of global species richness gradients.

Comparing diversification rates in lakes, rivers, and the sea

The diversity of species inhabiting freshwater relative to marine habitats is striking, given that freshwater habitats encompass <1% of Earth's water. The most commonly proposed explanation for this pattern is that freshwater habitats are more fragmented than marine habitats, allowing more opportunities for allopatric speciation and thus increased diversification rates in freshwater. However, speciation may be generally faster in sympatry than in allopatry, as illustrated by lacustrine radiations such as African cichlids. Such differences between rivers and lakes may be important to consider when comparing diversification broadly among freshwater and marine groups. Here I compared diversification rates of teleost fishes in marine, riverine and lacustrine habitats. I found that lakes had faster speciation and net diversification rates than other aquatic habitats. However, most freshwater diversity arose in rivers. Surprisingly, riverine and marine habitats had similar rates of net diversification on average. Biogeographic models suggest that lacustrine habitats are evolutionarily unstable, explaining the dearth of lacustrine species in spite of their rapid diversification. Collectively, these results suggest that strong diversification rate differences are unlikely to explain the freshwater paradox. Instead, this pattern may be attributable to the comparable amount of time spent in riverine and marine habitats over the 200-million-year history of teleosts.

Limited evidence for a positive relationship between hybridization and diversification across seed plant families

Hybridization has experimental and observational ties to evolutionary processes and outcomes such as adaptation, speciation, and radiation. Although it has been hypothesized that hybridization and diversification are positively correlated, this idea remains largely untested empirically, and hybridization can also potentially reduce diversity. Here, we use a hybridization database on 170 seed plant families, life history information, and a time-calibrated phylogeny to test for phylogenetically-corrected associations between hybridization and diversification rates, while also taking into account life-history traits that may be correlated with both processes. We use three methods to estimate diversification rates and two metrics of hybridization. Although hybridization explains only a small amount of overall variation in diversification rates, we show that diversification and hybridization are sometimes positively correlated, although the effect sizes are very small. Moreover, the relationship remains detectable when incorporating the correlations between diversification and two other life history characteristics, perenniality and woodiness. We discuss potential mechanisms for this association under four different scenarios: hybridization may drive diversification, diversification may drive hybridization, both hybridization and diversification may jointly be driven by other factors, or, as an alternative, that there is in fact no relationship between the two. We suggest future studies to disentangle the causal structure.

Unifying Phylogenetic Birth-Death Models in Epidemiology and Macroevolution

Birth–death stochastic processes are the foundations of many phylogenetic models and are widely used to make inferences about epidemiological and macroevolutionary dynamics. There are a large number of birth–death model variants that have been developed; these impose different assumptions about the temporal dynamics of the parameters and about the sampling process. As each of these variants was individually derived, it has been difficult to understand the relationships between them as well as their precise biological and mathematical assumptions. Without a common mathematical foundation, deriving new models is nontrivial. Here, we unify these models into a single framework, prove that many previously developed epidemiological and macroevolutionary models are all special cases of a more general model, and illustrate the connections between these variants. This unification includes both models where the process is the same for all lineages and those in which it varies across types. We also outline a straightforward procedure for deriving likelihood functions for arbitrarily complex birth–death(-sampling) models that will hopefully allow researchers to explore a wider array of scenarios than was previously possible. By rederiving existing single-type birth–death sampling models, we clarify and synthesize the range of explicit and implicit assumptions made by these models. [Birth–death processes; epidemiology; macroevolution; phylogenetics; statistical inference.]

Imprints of tropical niche conservatism and historical dispersal in the radiation of Tyrannidae (Aves: Passeriformes)

Speciation events occurring within biogeographic regions, and historical dispersal between regions influence diversity patterns observed in present-day assemblages. Such assessment has been often performed based on the phylogenetic structure of local assemblages. We underline some issues with that approach, and show that more reliable evaluation of historical events influencing present-day diversity can be achieved by combining phylogenetic diversity to an estimate of species assemblage age based on ancestral range estimation. We apply the new approach to test two concurrent hypotheses—Tropical Niche Conservatism (TNC) and Out of The Tropics (OTT)—which provide alternative explanations to species richness gradients, as possible explanations to higher species richness in tropical assemblages of Tyrannidae birds in relation to temperate ones across the American continent. Tropical assemblages tended to be older and to show higher phylogenetic diversity than temperate ones, suggesting that recent events of historical dispersal carried out by few lineages likely drove species assembly in younger temperate assemblages. This finding provides support to TNC as the most probable explanation to species richness variation in tyrannid assemblages across the Americas. Combining phylogenetic structure measures with a flexible assemblage age metric calculated from ancestral range estimation allows deeper understanding of current diversity gradients.

Linking population-level and microevolutionary processes to understand speciation dynamics at the macroevolutionary scale

Although speciation dynamics have been described for several taxonomic groups in distinct geographic regions, most macroevolutionary studies still lack a detailed mechanistic view on how or why speciation rates change. To help partially fill this gap, we suggest that the interaction between the time taken by a species to geographically expand and the time populations take to evolve reproductive isolation should be considered when we are trying to understand macroevolutionary patterns. We introduce a simple conceptual index to guide our discussion on how demographic and microevolutionary processes might produce speciation dynamics at macroevolutionary scales. Our framework is developed under different scenarios: when speciation is mediated by geographical or resource-partitioning opportunities, and when diversity is limited or not. We also discuss how organismal intrinsic properties and different overall geographical settings can influence the tempo and mode of speciation. We argue that specific conditions observed at the microscale might produce a pulse in speciation rates even without a pulse in either climate or physical barriers. We also propose a hypothesis to reconcile the apparent inconsistency between speciation measured at the microscale and macroscale, and emphasize that diversification rates are better seen as an emergent property. We hope to bring the reader's attention to interesting mechanisms to be further studied, to motivate the development of new theoretical models that connect microevolution and macroevolution, and to inspire new empirical and methodological approaches to more adequately investigate speciation dynamics either using neontological or paleontological data.

Detecting Lineage-Specific Shifts in Diversification: A Proper Likelihood Approach

The branching patterns of molecular phylogenies are generally assumed to contain information on rates of the underlying speciation and extinction processes. Simple birth-death models with constant, time-varying, or diversity-dependent rates have been invoked to explain these patterns. They have one assumption in common: all lineages have the same set of diversification rates at a given point in time. It seems likely, however, that there is variability in diversification rates across subclades in a phylogenetic tree. This has inspired the construction of models that allow multiple rate regimes across the phylogeny, with instantaneous shifts between these regimes. Several methods exist for calculating the likelihood of a phylogeny under a specified mapping of diversification regimes and for performing inference on the most likely diversification history that gave rise to a particular phylogenetic tree. Here, we show that the likelihood computation of these methods is not correct. We provide a new framework to compute the likelihood correctly and show, with simulations of a single shift, that the correct likelihood indeed leads to parameter estimates that are on average in much better agreement with the generating parameters than the incorrect likelihood. Moreover, we show that our corrected likelihood can be extended to multiple rate shifts in time-dependent and diversity-dependent models. We argue that identifying shifts in diversification rates is a nontrivial model selection exercise where one has to choose whether shifts in now-extinct lineages are taken into account or not. Hence, our framework also resolves the recent debate on such unobserved shifts. [Diversification; macroevolution; phylogeny; speciation].

On the Effect of Asymmetrical Trait Inheritance on Models of Trait Evolution

Current phylogenetic comparative methods modeling quantitative trait evolution generally assume that, during speciation, phenotypes are inherited identically between the two daughter species. This, however, neglects the fact that species consist of a set of individuals, each bearing its own trait value. Indeed, because descendent populations after speciation are samples of a parent population, we can expect their mean phenotypes to randomly differ from one another potentially generating a "jump" of mean phenotypes due to asymmetrical trait inheritance at cladogenesis. Here, we aim to clarify the effect of asymmetrical trait inheritance at speciation on macroevolutionary analyses, focusing on model testing and parameter estimation using some of the most common models of quantitative trait evolution. We developed an individual-based simulation framework in which the evolution of phenotypes is determined by trait changes at the individual level accumulating across generations, and cladogenesis occurs then by separation of subsets of the individuals into new lineages. Through simulations, we assess the magnitude of phenotypic jumps at cladogenesis under different modes of trait inheritance at speciation. We show that even small jumps can strongly alter both the results of model selection and parameter estimations, potentially affecting the biological interpretation of the estimated mode of evolution of a trait. Our results call for caution when interpreting analyses of trait evolution, while highlighting the importance of testing a wide range of alternative models. In the light of our findings, we propose that future methodological advances in comparative methods should more explicitly model the intraspecific variability around species mean phenotypes and how it is inherited at speciation.

The evolution of a tropical biodiversity hotspot

The tropics are the source of most biodiversity yet inadequate sampling obscures answers to fundamental questions about how this diversity evolves. We leveraged samples assembled over decades of fieldwork to study diversification of the largest tropical bird radiation, the suboscine passerines. Our phylogeny, estimated using data from 2389 genomic regions in 1940 individuals of 1283 species, reveals that peak suboscine species diversity in the Neotropics is not associated with high recent speciation rates but rather with the gradual accumulation of species over time. Paradoxically, the highest speciation rates are in lineages from regions with low species diversity, which are generally cold, dry, unstable environments. Our results reveal a model in which species are forming faster in environmental extremes but have accumulated in moderate environments to form tropical biodiversity hotspots.

The Dynamics of Bird Diversity in the New World

Three prominent explanations have been proposed to explain the dramatic differences in species richness across regions and elevations, (i) time for speciation, (ii) diversification rates, and (iii) ecological limits. But the relative importance of these explanations and, especially, their interplay and possible synthesis remain largely elusive. Integrating diversification analyses, null models, and geographic information systems, I study avian richness across regions and elevations of the New World. My results reveal that even though the three explanations are differentially important (with ecological limits playing the dominant role), each contributes uniquely to the formation of richness gradients. Further, my results reveal the likely interplay between the explanations. They indicate that ecological limits hinder the diversification process, such that the accumulation of species within a region gradually slows down over time. Yet, it does not seem to converge toward a hard ceiling on regional richness. Instead, species-rich regions show suppressed, but continued, diversification, coupled with signatures of possible competition (esp. Neotropical lowlands). Conversely, species-poor, newly-colonized regions show fast diversification and weak to no signs of competition (esp. Nearctic highlands). These results held across five families of birds, across grid cells, biomes, and elevations. Together, my findings begin to illuminate the rich, yet highly consistent, interplay of the mechanisms that together shape richness gradients in the New World, including the most species-rich biodiversity hotspots on the planet, the Andes and the Amazon. [Biogeography; community; competition; macroevolution; phylogenetics; richness gradient.]