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Prinsloo C, Smith S, Law M, Hanson J. The Epidemiological, Clinical, and Microbiological Features of Patients with Burkholderia pseudomallei Bacteraemia-Implications for Clinical Management. Trop Med Infect Dis 2023; 8:481. [PMID: 37999600 PMCID: PMC10675116 DOI: 10.3390/tropicalmed8110481] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/20/2023] [Revised: 10/21/2023] [Accepted: 10/23/2023] [Indexed: 11/25/2023] Open
Abstract
Patients with melioidosis are commonly bacteraemic. However, the epidemiological characteristics, the microbiological findings, and the clinical associations of Burkholderia pseudomallei bacteraemia are incompletely defined. All cases of culture-confirmed melioidosis at Cairns Hospital in tropical Australia between January 1998 and June 2023 were reviewed. The presence of bacteraemia was determined and correlated with patient characteristics and outcomes; 332/477 (70%) individuals in the cohort were bacteraemic. In multivariable analysis, immunosuppression (odds ratio (OR) (95% confidence interval (CI)): (2.76 (1.21-6.27), p = 0.02), a wet season presentation (2.27 (1.44-3.59), p < 0.0001) and male sex (1.69 (1.08-2.63), p = 0.02), increased the likelihood of bacteraemia. Patients with a skin or soft tissue infection (0.32 (0.19-0.57), p < 0.0001) or without predisposing factors for melioidosis (0.53 (0.30-0.93), p = 0.03) were less likely to be bacteraemic. Bacteraemia was associated with intensive care unit admission (OR (95%CI): 4.27 (2.35-7.76), p < 0.0001), and death (2.12 (1.04-4.33), p = 0.04). The median (interquartile range) time to blood culture positivity was 31 (26-39) hours. Patients with positive blood cultures within 24 h were more likely to die than patients whose blood culture flagged positive after this time (OR (95%CI): 11.05 (3.96-30.83), p < 0.0001). Bacteraemia portends a worse outcome in patients with melioidosis. Its presence or absence might be used to help predict outcomes in cases of melioidosis and to inform optimal clinical management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carmen Prinsloo
- College of Medicine and Dentistry, James Cook University, Cairns Hospital, Cairns, QLD 4870, Australia
| | - Simon Smith
- Department of Medicine, Cairns Hospital, Cairns, QLD 4870, Australia;
| | - Matthew Law
- The Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2042, Australia;
| | - Josh Hanson
- Department of Medicine, Cairns Hospital, Cairns, QLD 4870, Australia;
- The Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2042, Australia;
- Global and Tropical Health Division, Menzies School of Health Research, Charles Darwin University, Darwin, NT 0811, Australia
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Prasad PA, Correia J, Fang MC, Fisher A, Correll M, Oreper S, Auerbach A. Performance of point-of-care severity scores to predict prognosis in patients admitted through the emergency department with COVID-19. J Hosp Med 2023; 18:413-423. [PMID: 37057912 DOI: 10.1002/jhm.13106] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/26/2022] [Revised: 03/14/2023] [Accepted: 03/31/2023] [Indexed: 04/15/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Identifying COVID-19 patients at the highest risk of poor outcomes is critical in emergency department (ED) presentation. Sepsis risk stratification scores can be calculated quickly for COVID-19 patients but have not been evaluated in a large cohort. OBJECTIVE To determine whether well-known risk scores can predict poor outcomes among hospitalized COVID-19 patients. DESIGNS, SETTINGS, AND PARTICIPANTS A retrospective cohort study of adults presenting with COVID-19 to 156 Hospital Corporation of America (HCA) Healthcare EDs, March 2, 2020, to February 11, 2021. INTERVENTION Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA), Shock Index, National Early Warning System-2 (NEWS2), and quick COVID-19 Severity Index (qCSI) at presentation. MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURES The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes included intensive care unit (ICU) admission, mechanical ventilation, and vasopressors receipt. Patients scored positive with qSOFA ≥ 2, Shock Index > 0.7, NEWS2 ≥ 5, and qCSI ≥ 4. Test characteristics and area under the receiver operating characteristics curves (AUROCs) were calculated. RESULTS We identified 90,376 patients with community-acquired COVID-19 (mean age 64.3 years, 46.8% female). 17.2% of patients died in-hospital, 28.6% went to the ICU, 13.7% received mechanical ventilation, and 13.6% received vasopressors. There were 3.8% qSOFA-positive, 45.1% Shock Index-positive, 49.8% NEWS2-positive, and 37.6% qCSI-positive at ED-triage. NEWS2 exhibited the highest AUROC for in-hospital mortality (0.593, confidence interval [CI]: 0.588-0.597), ICU admission (0.602, CI: 0.599-0.606), mechanical ventilation (0.614, CI: 0.610-0.619), and vasopressor receipt (0.600, CI: 0.595-0.604). CONCLUSIONS Sepsis severity scores at presentation have low discriminative power to predict outcomes in COVID-19 patients and are not reliable for clinical use. Severity scores should be developed using features that accurately predict poor outcomes among COVID-19 patients to develop more effective risk-based triage.
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Affiliation(s)
- Priya A Prasad
- Department of Medicine, Division of Hospital Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Jessica Correia
- Sarah Cannon, Genospace, HCA Healthcare Research Institute, Nashville, Tennessee, USA
| | - Margaret C Fang
- Department of Medicine, Division of Hospital Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Arielle Fisher
- Sarah Cannon, Genospace, HCA Healthcare Research Institute, Nashville, Tennessee, USA
| | - Mick Correll
- Sarah Cannon, Genospace, HCA Healthcare Research Institute, Nashville, Tennessee, USA
| | - Sandra Oreper
- Department of Medicine, Division of Hospital Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Andrew Auerbach
- Department of Medicine, Division of Hospital Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA
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Bateson M, Marwick CA, Staines HJ, Patton A, Stewart E, Rooney KD. Performance of bedside tools for predicting infection-related mortality and administrative data for sepsis surveillance: An observational cohort study. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0280228. [PMID: 36862700 PMCID: PMC9980760 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0280228] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/04/2021] [Accepted: 12/23/2022] [Indexed: 03/03/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Measuring sepsis incidence and associated mortality at scale using administrative data is hampered by variation in diagnostic coding. This study aimed first to compare how well bedside severity scores predict 30-day mortality in hospitalised patients with infection, then to assess the ability of combinations of administrative data items to identify patients with sepsis. METHODS This retrospective case note review examined 958 adult hospital admissions between October 2015 and March 2016. Admissions with blood culture sampling were matched 1:1 to admissions without a blood culture. Case note review data were linked to discharge coding and mortality. For patients with infection the performance characteristics of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), National Early Warning System (NEWS), quick SOFA (qSOFA), and Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) were calculated for predicting 30-day mortality. Next, the performance characteristics of administrative data (blood cultures and discharge codes) for identifying patients with sepsis, defined as SOFA ≥2 because of infection, were calculated. RESULTS Infection was documented in 630 (65.8%) admissions and 347 (55.1%) patients with infection had sepsis. NEWS (Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic, AUROC 0.78 95%CI 0.72-0.83) and SOFA (AUROC 0.77, 95%CI 0.72-0.83), performed similarly well for prediction of 30-day mortality. Having an infection and/or sepsis International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) code (AUROC 0.68, 95%CI 0.64-0.71) performed as well in identifying patients with sepsis as having at least one of: an infection code; sepsis code, or; blood culture (AUROC 0.68, 95%CI 0.65-0.71), Sepsis codes (AUROC 0.53, 95%CI 0.49-0.57) and positive blood cultures (AUROC 0.52, 95%CI 0.49-0.56) performed least well. CONCLUSIONS SOFA and NEWS best predicted 30-day mortality in patients with infection. Sepsis ICD-10 codes lack sensitivity. For health systems without suitable electronic health records, blood culture sampling has potential utility as a clinical component of a proxy marker for sepsis surveillance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Meghan Bateson
- ihub, Healthcare Improvement Scotland, Glasgow, United Kingdom
- * E-mail:
| | - Charis A. Marwick
- Population Health & Genomics Division, School of Medicine, University of Dundee, Dundee, United Kingdom
| | - Harry J. Staines
- Healthcare Biometrics, Sigma Statistical Services, Balmullo, United Kingdom
| | - Andrea Patton
- Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Elaine Stewart
- School of Health and Life Sciences, University of the West of Scotland, Lanarkshire, United Kingdom
| | - Kevin D. Rooney
- Department of Anaesthetics and Intensive Care Medicine, Royal Alexandra Hospital, Paisley, United Kingdom
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İlhan B, Bozdereli Berikol G, Doğan H. The predictive value of modified risk scores in patients with acute exacerbation of COPD: a retrospective cohort study. Intern Emerg Med 2022; 17:2119-2127. [PMID: 35854207 PMCID: PMC9296366 DOI: 10.1007/s11739-022-03048-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/11/2022] [Accepted: 06/30/2022] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
This study aims to evaluate the performance of CREWS (Chronic Respiratory Early Warning Score), S-NEWS (Salford-National Early Warning Score), qNEWS (Quick National Early Warning Score), NEWS (National Early Warning Score), and qSOFA (Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment) scores in predicting mortality, intensive care unit (ICU) admission and the need for mechanical ventilation (MV) of patients presented with acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD). This retrospective cohort study was conducted in the emergency department of a tertiary hospital between January 1 and December 31, 2019. The patients with AECOPD and aged ≥ 18 were included. Patients who were transferred from another center and whose data could not be reached were excluded. Demographic information, comorbid diseases, variables of the scores, laboratory results, and outcomes were recorded. A total of 575 consecutive patients were included. The 30-day mortality, ICU admission, and MV need rate were 5.7% (n = 33), 9.6% (n = 55), and 13.7% (n = 79), respectively. Each score had moderate-to-excellent performance in predicting MV need and ICU admission, while their performance in predicting mortality was poor. CREWS is the most successful score in predicting 30-day mortality (AUC 0.695), ICU admission (AUC 0.841), and MV need (AUC 0.924). ICU admission, age, and creatinine levels were associated with mortality (p < 0.05). All scores have better performance in predicting ICU admission and MV need than mortality. ICU admission, age, and creatinine levels may be the predictors of mortality among AECOPD patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Buğra İlhan
- Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Health Sciences, Bakırköy Dr. Sadi Konuk Training and Research Hospital, Istanbul, Turkey.
| | - Göksu Bozdereli Berikol
- Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Health Sciences, Bakırköy Dr. Sadi Konuk Training and Research Hospital, Istanbul, Turkey
| | - Halil Doğan
- Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Health Sciences, Bakırköy Dr. Sadi Konuk Training and Research Hospital, Istanbul, Turkey
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Euden J, Thomas-Jones E, Aston S, Brookes-Howell L, Carman J, Carrol E, Gilbert S, Howard P, Hood K, Inada-Kim M, Llewelyn M, McGill F, Milosevic S, Niessen LW, Nsutebu E, Pallmann P, Schmidt P, Taylor-Robinson D, Welters I, Todd S, French N. PROcalcitonin and NEWS2 evaluation for Timely identification of sepsis and Optimal use of antibiotics in the emergency department (PRONTO): protocol for a multicentre, open-label, randomised controlled trial. BMJ Open 2022; 12:e063424. [PMID: 35697438 PMCID: PMC9196199 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2022-063424] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/21/2022] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Sepsis is a common, potentially life-threatening complication of infection. The optimal treatment for sepsis includes prompt antibiotics and intravenous fluids, facilitated by its early and accurate recognition. Currently, clinicians identify and assess severity of suspected sepsis using validated clinical scoring systems. In England, the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) has been mandated across all National Health Service (NHS) trusts and ambulance organisations. Like many clinical scoring systems, NEWS2 should not be used without clinical judgement to determine either the level of acuity or a diagnosis. Despite this, there is a tendency to overemphasise the score in isolation in patients with suspected infection, leading to the overprescription of antibiotics and potentially treatment-related complications and rising antimicrobial resistance. The biomarker procalcitonin (PCT) has been shown to be useful in specific circumstances to support appropriate antibiotics prescribing by identifying bacterial infection. PCT is not routinely used in the care of undifferentiated patients presenting to emergency departments (EDs), and the evidence base of its optimal usage is poor. The PROcalcitonin and NEWS2 evaluation for Timely identification of sepsis and Optimal (PRONTO) study is a randomised controlled trial (RCT) in adults with suspected sepsis presenting to the ED to compare standard clinical management based on NEWS2 scoring plus PCT-guided risk assessment with standard clinical management based on NEWS2 scoring alone and compare if this approach reduces prescriptions of antibiotics without increasing mortality. METHODS AND ANALYSIS PRONTO is a parallel two-arm open-label individually RCT set in up to 20 NHS EDs in the UK with a target sample size of 7676 participants. Participants will be randomised in a ratio of 1:1 to standard clinical management based on NEWS2 scoring or standard clinical management based on NEWS2 scoring plus PCT-guided risk assessment. We will compare whether the addition of PCT measurement to NEWS2 scoring can lead to a reduction in intravenous antibiotic initiation in ED patients managed as suspected sepsis, with at least no increase in 28-day mortality compared with NEWS2 scoring alone (in conjunction with local standard care pathways). PRONTO has two coprimary endpoints: initiation of intravenous antibiotics at 3 hours (superiority comparison) and 28-day mortality (non-inferiority comparison). The study has an internal pilot phase and group-sequential stopping rules for effectiveness and futility/safety, as well as a qualitative substudy and a health economic evaluation. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION The trial protocol was approved by the Health Research Authority (HRA) and NHS Research Ethics Committee (Wales REC 2, reference 20/WA/0058). In England and Wales, the law allows the use of deferred consent in approved research situations (including ED studies) where the time dependent nature of intervention would not allow true informed consent to be obtained. PRONTO has approval for a deferred consent process to be used. Findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals and presented at scientific conferences. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER ISRCTN54006056.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joanne Euden
- Centre for Trials Research, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK
| | | | - Stephen Aston
- Institute of Systems, Molecular and Integrative Biology, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | | | | | - Enitan Carrol
- Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | | | - Philip Howard
- School of Healthcare, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | - Kerenza Hood
- Centre for Trials Research, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK
| | - Matthew Inada-Kim
- Acute Medicine, Hampshire Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Winchester, UK
- NHS England and NHS Improvement, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - Martin Llewelyn
- Infectious Diseases and Therapeutics, Brighton and Sussex Medical School, Brighton, UK
| | - Fiona McGill
- Departments of Infectious Diseases and Medical Microbiology, Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust, Leeds, UK
| | | | - Louis Wihelmus Niessen
- Health Economics, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, UK
- School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Emmanuel Nsutebu
- Tropical and Infectious Diseases Division, Sheikh Shakhbout Medical City, Abu Dabi, UAE
| | | | - Paul Schmidt
- Acute Medical Unit, Portsmouth Hospitals NHS Trust, Portsmouth, UK
| | - David Taylor-Robinson
- Department of Public Health, Policy and Systems, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | - Ingeborg Welters
- Institute for Life Course and Medical Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | - Stacy Todd
- Tropical and Infectious Disease Unit, Liverpool University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Liverpool, UK
| | - Neil French
- Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
- Tropical and Infectious Disease Unit, Liverpool University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Liverpool, UK
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6
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Lalueza A, Lora-Tamayo J, de la Calle C, Sayas-Catalán J, Arrieta E, Maestro G, Mancheño-Losa M, Marchán-López Á, Díaz-Simón R, García-García R, Catalán M, García-Reyne A, de Miguel-Campo B, Lumbreras C. The early use of sepsis scores to predict respiratory failure and mortality in non-ICU patients with COVID-19. Rev Clin Esp 2022; 222:293-298. [PMID: 35512908 PMCID: PMC7888251 DOI: 10.1016/j.rceng.2020.10.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/02/2020] [Accepted: 10/01/2020] [Indexed: 12/30/2022]
Abstract
This observational retrospective study aimed to investigate the usefulness of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Quick SOFA (qSOFA), National Early Warning Score (NEWS), and quick NEWS in predicting respiratory failure and death among patients with COVID-19 hospitalized outside of intensive care units (ICU). We included 237 adults hospitalized with COVID-19 who were followed-up on for one month or until death. Respiratory failure was defined as a PaO2/FiO2 ratio ≤200 mmHg or the need for mechanical ventilation. Respiratory failure occurred in 77 patients (32.5%), 29 patients (12%) were admitted to the ICU, and 49 patients (20.7%) died. Discrimination of respiratory failure was slightly higher in NEWS, followed by SOFA. Regarding mortality, SOFA was more accurate than the other scores. In conclusion, sepsis scores are useful for predicting respiratory failure and mortality in COVID-19 patients. A NEWS score ≥4 was found to be the best cutoff point for predicting respiratory failure.
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Affiliation(s)
- A Lalueza
- Servicio de Medicina Interna, Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre, Madrid, Spain.
| | - J Lora-Tamayo
- Servicio de Medicina Interna, Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre, Madrid, Spain; Departamento de Medicina, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain; Instituto de investigación del Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre (i+12), Madrid, Spain
| | - C de la Calle
- Servicio de Medicina Interna, Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre, Madrid, Spain
| | - J Sayas-Catalán
- Instituto de investigación del Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre (i+12), Madrid, Spain; Servicio de Neumología, Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre, Madrid, Spain
| | - E Arrieta
- Servicio de Medicina Interna, Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre, Madrid, Spain
| | - G Maestro
- Servicio de Medicina Interna, Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre, Madrid, Spain
| | - M Mancheño-Losa
- Servicio de Medicina Interna, Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre, Madrid, Spain; Instituto de investigación del Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre (i+12), Madrid, Spain
| | - Á Marchán-López
- Servicio de Medicina Interna, Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre, Madrid, Spain
| | - R Díaz-Simón
- Servicio de Medicina Interna, Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre, Madrid, Spain; Departamento de Medicina, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
| | - R García-García
- Servicio de Neumología, Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre, Madrid, Spain
| | - M Catalán
- Unidad de Cuidados Intensivos, Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre, Madrid, Spain
| | - A García-Reyne
- Servicio de Medicina Interna, Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre, Madrid, Spain
| | - B de Miguel-Campo
- Servicio de Medicina Interna, Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre, Madrid, Spain
| | - C Lumbreras
- Servicio de Medicina Interna, Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre, Madrid, Spain; Unidad de Enfermedades Infecciosas, Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre, Madrid, Spain
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Ko RE, Kwon O, Cho KJ, Lee YJ, Kwon JM, Park J, Kim JS, Kim AJ, Jo YH, Lee Y, Jeon K. Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment Score and the Modified Early Warning Score for Predicting Clinical Deterioration in General Ward Patients Regardless of Suspected Infection. J Korean Med Sci 2022; 37:e122. [PMID: 35470597 PMCID: PMC9039192 DOI: 10.3346/jkms.2022.37.e122] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/04/2022] [Accepted: 03/24/2022] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA) score is suggested to use for screening patients with a high risk of clinical deterioration in the general wards, which could simply be regarded as a general early warning score. However, comparison of unselected admissions to highlight the benefits of introducing qSOFA in hospitals already using Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) remains unclear. We sought to compare qSOFA with MEWS for predicting clinical deterioration in general ward patients regardless of suspected infection. METHODS The predictive performance of qSOFA and MEWS for in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) or unexpected intensive care unit (ICU) transfer was compared with the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) analysis using the databases of vital signs collected from consecutive hospitalized adult patients over 12 months in five participating hospitals in Korea. RESULTS Of 173,057 hospitalized patients included for analysis, 668 (0.39%) experienced the composite outcome. The discrimination for the composite outcome for MEWS (AUC, 0.777; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.770-0.781) was higher than that for qSOFA (AUC, 0.684; 95% CI, 0.676-0.686; P < 0.001). In addition, MEWS was better for prediction of IHCA (AUC, 0.792; 95% CI, 0.781-0.795 vs. AUC, 0.640; 95% CI, 0.625-0.645; P < 0.001) and unexpected ICU transfer (AUC, 0.767; 95% CI, 0.760-0.773 vs. AUC, 0.716; 95% CI, 0.707-0.718; P < 0.001) than qSOFA. Using the MEWS at a cutoff of ≥ 5 would correctly reclassify 3.7% of patients from qSOFA score ≥ 2. Most patients met MEWS ≥ 5 criteria 13 hours before the composite outcome compared with 11 hours for qSOFA score ≥ 2. CONCLUSION MEWS is more accurate that qSOFA score for predicting IHCA or unexpected ICU transfer in patients outside the ICU. Our study suggests that qSOFA should not replace MEWS for identifying patients in the general wards at risk of poor outcome.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ryoung-Eun Ko
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | | | | | - Yeon Joo Lee
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seongnam, Korea
| | - Joon-Myoung Kwon
- Department of Critical Care and Emergency Medicine, Mediplex Sejong Hospital, Incheon, Korea
| | - Jinsik Park
- Division of Cardiology, Cardiovascular Center, Mediplex Sejong Hospital, Incheon, Korea
| | - Jung Soo Kim
- Division of Critical Care Medicine, Department of Hospital Medicine, Inha University Hospital, Inha University College of Medicine, Incheon, Korea
| | - Ah Jin Kim
- Division of Critical Care Medicine, Department of Hospital Medicine, Inha University Hospital, Inha University College of Medicine, Incheon, Korea
| | - You Hwan Jo
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seongnam, Korea
| | | | - Kyeongman Jeon
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Medicine, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
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Schuttevaer R, Boogers W, Brink A, van Dijk W, de Steenwinkel J, Schuit S, Verbon A, Lingsma H, Alsma J. Predictive performance of comorbidity for 30-day and 1-year mortality in patients with bloodstream infection visiting the emergency department: a retrospective cohort study. BMJ Open 2022; 12:e057196. [PMID: 35387824 PMCID: PMC8987751 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-057196] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/11/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To investigate whether the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) predicted short-term and long-term mortality in patients with a bloodstream infection visiting the emergency department (ED) and compare it to the often-validated National Early Warning Score (NEWS). DESIGN A retrospective cohort study. SETTING A tertiary hospital in the Netherlands. PARTICIPANTS Adult patients attending the ED with a blood culture-proven infection between 2012 and 2017 were included. We collected the comorbidities from the CCI and the vital signs from the NEWS. MAIN OUTCOMES Short-term mortality (30-day) and long-term mortality (1 year). We assessed the predictive performance by discrimination, expressed as the area under the curve (AUC). RESULTS We included 1039 patients with a blood culture-proven infection. Mortality was 10.4% within 30 days and 27.8% within 1 year. On average patients had two comorbidities (ranging from 0 to 6). Highly prevalent comorbidities were malignancy (30.2%) and diabetes mellitus (20.5%). The predictive performance of the CCI was highest for 1-year mortality (AUC 0.696 (95%CI) (0.660 to 0.732)) and better compared with the NEWS (AUC (95% CI) 0.594 (0.555 to 0.632)). For prediction of 30-day mortality, the NEWS was superior (AUC (95% CI) 0.706 (0.656 to 0.756)) to the comorbidities of the CCI (AUC (95% CI) 0.568 (0.507 to 0.628)). CONCLUSIONS We found that presenting comorbidity (ie, the CCI) is most useful to prognosticate long-term outcome in patients with bloodstream infection in the ED. Short-term mortality is more accurately predicted by deviating vital signs (ie, the NEWS).
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Affiliation(s)
- Romy Schuttevaer
- Department of Internal Medicine, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, Netherlands
| | - William Boogers
- Department of Internal Medicine, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, Netherlands
| | - Anniek Brink
- Department of Internal Medicine, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, Netherlands
| | - Willian van Dijk
- Department of Internal Medicine, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, Netherlands
| | - Jurriaan de Steenwinkel
- Department of Medical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, Netherlands
| | - Stephanie Schuit
- Department of Internal Medicine, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, Netherlands
| | - Annelies Verbon
- Department of Medical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, Netherlands
| | - Hester Lingsma
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, Netherlands
| | - Jelmer Alsma
- Department of Internal Medicine, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, Netherlands
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Thodphetch M, Chenthanakij B, Wittayachamnankul B, Sruamsiri K, Tangsuwanaruk T. A comparison of scoring systems for predicting mortality and sepsis in the emergency department patients with a suspected infection. Clin Exp Emerg Med 2022; 8:289-295. [PMID: 35000356 PMCID: PMC8743683 DOI: 10.15441/ceem.20.145] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/01/2020] [Accepted: 03/08/2021] [Indexed: 12/29/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE We aimed to compare the modified National Early Warning Score (mNEWS), quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score, modified Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (mSIRS) score, and modified Search Out Severity (mSOS) score in predicting mortality and sepsis among patients suspected of first observed infections in the emergency department. The modified scores were created by removing variables for simplicity. METHODS This was a prospective cohort study that enrolled adult patients presenting at the emergency department with signs and symptoms suggesting infection. The mNEWS, qSOFA score, mSIRS score, and mSOS score were calculated using triage data. The SOFA score was a reference standard for sepsis diagnosis. All patients were monitored for up to 30 days after the initial visit to measure each scoring system's ability to predict 30-day mortality and sepsis. RESULTS There were 260 patients included in the study. The 30-day mortality prediction with mNEWS ≥5 had the highest sensitivity (91.18%). The highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the 30-day mortality prediction was mNEWS (0.607), followed by qSOFA (0.605), mSOS (0.550), and mSIRS (0.423). The sepsis prediction with mNEWS ≥5 had the highest sensitivity (96.48%). The highest AUC for the sepsis prediction was also mNEWS (0.685), followed by qSOFA (0.605), mSOS (0.480), and mSIRS (0.477). CONCLUSION mNEWS was an acceptable scoring system screening tool for predicting mortality and sepsis in patients with a suspected infection.
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Affiliation(s)
- Manita Thodphetch
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand
| | - Boriboon Chenthanakij
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand
| | - Borwon Wittayachamnankul
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand
| | - Kamphee Sruamsiri
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand
| | - Theerapon Tangsuwanaruk
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand
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Fukui S, Inui A, Saita M, Kobayashi D, Naito T. Clinical prediction rule for bacteremia with pyelonephritis and hospitalization judgment: chi-square automatic interaction detector (CHAID) decision tree analysis model. J Int Med Res 2022; 50:3000605211065658. [PMID: 34986702 PMCID: PMC8743944 DOI: 10.1177/03000605211065658] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/01/2022] Open
Abstract
Objective This study was performed to identify predictive factors for bacteremia among patients with pyelonephritis using a chi-square automatic interaction detector (CHAID) decision tree analysis model. Methods This retrospective cross-sectional survey was performed at Juntendo University Nerima Hospital, Tokyo, Japan and included all patients with pyelonephritis from whom blood cultures were taken. At the time of blood culture sample collection, clinical information was extracted from the patients’ medical charts, including vital signs, symptoms, laboratory data, and culture results. Factors potentially predictive of bacteremia among patients with pyelonephritis were analyzed using Student’s t-test or the chi-square test and the CHAID decision tree analysis model. Results In total, 198 patients (60 (30.3%) men, 138 (69.7%) women; mean age, 74.69 ± 15.27 years) were included in this study, of whom 92 (46.4%) had positive blood culture results. The CHAID decision tree analysis revealed that patients with a white blood cell count of >21,000/μL had a very high risk (89.5%) of developing bacteremia. Patients with a white blood cell count of ≤21,000/μL plus chills plus an aspartate aminotransferase concentration of >19 IU/L constituted the high-risk group (69.0%). Conclusion The present results are extremely useful for predicting the results of bacteremia among patients with pyelonephritis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sayato Fukui
- Department of General Medicine, Juntendo University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Akihiro Inui
- Department of General Medicine, Juntendo University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Mizue Saita
- Department of General Medicine, Juntendo University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Daiki Kobayashi
- Department of Internal Medicine, St. Luke's International Hospital, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Toshio Naito
- Department of General Medicine, Juntendo University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
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11
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Maves RC, Richard SA, Lindholm DA, Epsi N, Larson DT, Conlon C, Everson K, Lis S, Blair PW, Chi S, Ganesan A, Pollett S, Burgess TH, Agan BK, Colombo RE, Colombo CJ. Predictive Value of an Age-Based Modification of the National Early Warning System in Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19. Open Forum Infect Dis 2021; 8:ofab421. [PMID: 34877361 PMCID: PMC8643671 DOI: 10.1093/ofid/ofab421] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/29/2021] [Accepted: 08/06/2021] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Early recognition of high-risk patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) may improve outcomes. Although many predictive scoring systems exist, their complexity may limit utility in COVID-19. We assessed the prognostic performance of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) and an age-based modification (NEWS+age) among hospitalized COVID-19 patients enrolled in a prospective, multicenter US Military Health System (MHS) observational cohort study. METHODS Hospitalized adults with confirmed COVID-19 not requiring invasive mechanical ventilation at admission and with a baseline NEWS were included. We analyzed each scoring system's ability to predict key clinical outcomes, including progression to invasive ventilation or death, stratified by baseline severity (low [0-3], medium [4-6], and high [≥7]). RESULTS Among 184 included participants, those with low baseline NEWS had significantly shorter hospitalizations (P < .01) and lower maximum illness severity (P < .001). Most (80.2%) of low NEWS vs 15.8% of high NEWS participants required no or at most low-flow oxygen supplementation. Low NEWS (≤3) had a negative predictive value of 97.2% for progression to invasive ventilation or death; a high NEWS (≥7) had high specificity (93.1%) but low positive predictive value (42.1%) for such progression. NEWS+age performed similarly to NEWS at predicting invasive ventilation or death (NEWS+age: area under the receiver operating characteristics curve [AUROC], 0.69; 95% CI, 0.65-0.73; NEWS: AUROC, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.66-0.75). CONCLUSIONS NEWS and NEWS+age showed similar test characteristics in an MHS COVID-19 cohort. Notably, low baseline scores had an excellent negative predictive value. Given their easy applicability, these scoring systems may be useful in resource-limited settings to identify COVID-19 patients who are unlikely to progress to critical illness.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ryan C Maves
- Infectious Disease Clinical Research Program, Department of Preventive Medicine and Biostatistics, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, Bethesda, Maryland, USA
- Naval Medical Center San Diego, San Diego, California, USA
- Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, North Carolina, USA
| | - Stephanie A Richard
- Infectious Disease Clinical Research Program, Department of Preventive Medicine and Biostatistics, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, Bethesda, Maryland, USA
- Henry M. Jackson Foundation for the Advancement of Military Medicine, Inc., Bethesda, Maryland, USA
| | - David A Lindholm
- Brooke Army Medical Center, Joint Base San Antonio, Fort Sam Houston, Texas, USA
- Department of Medicine, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, Bethesda, Maryland, USA
| | - Nusrat Epsi
- Infectious Disease Clinical Research Program, Department of Preventive Medicine and Biostatistics, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, Bethesda, Maryland, USA
- Henry M. Jackson Foundation for the Advancement of Military Medicine, Inc., Bethesda, Maryland, USA
| | - Derek T Larson
- Fort Belvoir Community Hospital, Fort Belvoir, Virginia, USA
| | - Christian Conlon
- Madigan Army Medical Center, Joint Base Lewis-McChord, Washington, USA
| | - Kyle Everson
- Madigan Army Medical Center, Joint Base Lewis-McChord, Washington, USA
| | - Steffen Lis
- Madigan Army Medical Center, Joint Base Lewis-McChord, Washington, USA
| | - Paul W Blair
- Austere Environments Consortium for Enhanced Sepsis Outcomes, Henry M. Jackson Foundation for the Advancement of Military Medicine, Inc., Bethesda, Maryland, USA
- Department of Pathology, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, Bethesda, Maryland, USA
| | - Sharon Chi
- Infectious Disease Clinical Research Program, Department of Preventive Medicine and Biostatistics, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, Bethesda, Maryland, USA
- Henry M. Jackson Foundation for the Advancement of Military Medicine, Inc., Bethesda, Maryland, USA
- Tripler Army Medical Center, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA
| | - Anuradha Ganesan
- Infectious Disease Clinical Research Program, Department of Preventive Medicine and Biostatistics, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, Bethesda, Maryland, USA
- Henry M. Jackson Foundation for the Advancement of Military Medicine, Inc., Bethesda, Maryland, USA
- Walter Reed National Military Medical Center, Bethesda, Maryland, USA
| | - Simon Pollett
- Infectious Disease Clinical Research Program, Department of Preventive Medicine and Biostatistics, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, Bethesda, Maryland, USA
- Henry M. Jackson Foundation for the Advancement of Military Medicine, Inc., Bethesda, Maryland, USA
| | - Timothy H Burgess
- Infectious Disease Clinical Research Program, Department of Preventive Medicine and Biostatistics, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, Bethesda, Maryland, USA
| | - Brian K Agan
- Infectious Disease Clinical Research Program, Department of Preventive Medicine and Biostatistics, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, Bethesda, Maryland, USA
- Henry M. Jackson Foundation for the Advancement of Military Medicine, Inc., Bethesda, Maryland, USA
| | - Rhonda E Colombo
- Infectious Disease Clinical Research Program, Department of Preventive Medicine and Biostatistics, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, Bethesda, Maryland, USA
- Henry M. Jackson Foundation for the Advancement of Military Medicine, Inc., Bethesda, Maryland, USA
- Madigan Army Medical Center, Joint Base Lewis-McChord, Washington, USA
| | - Christopher J Colombo
- Department of Medicine, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, Bethesda, Maryland, USA
- Madigan Army Medical Center, Joint Base Lewis-McChord, Washington, USA
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Reschen ME, Bowen J, Novak A, Giles M, Singh S, Lasserson D, O'Callaghan CA. Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on emergency department attendances and acute medical admissions. BMC Emerg Med 2021; 21:143. [PMID: 34800973 PMCID: PMC8605447 DOI: 10.1186/s12873-021-00529-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 55] [Impact Index Per Article: 18.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/08/2021] [Accepted: 10/27/2021] [Indexed: 02/08/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND To better understand the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on hospital healthcare, we studied activity in the emergency department (ED) and acute medicine department of a major UK hospital. METHODS Electronic patient records for all adult patients attending ED (n = 243,667) or acute medicine (n = 82,899) during the pandemic (2020-2021) and prior year (2019) were analysed and compared. We studied parameters including severity, primary diagnoses, co-morbidity, admission rate, length of stay, bed occupancy, and mortality, with a focus on non-COVID-19 diseases. RESULTS During the first wave of the pandemic, daily ED attendance fell by 37%, medical admissions by 30% and medical bed occupancy by 27%, but all returned to normal within a year. ED attendances and medical admissions fell across all age ranges; the greatest reductions were seen for younger adults in ED attendances, but in older adults for medical admissions. Compared to non-COVID-19 pandemic admissions, COVID-19 admissions were enriched for minority ethnic groups, for dementia, obesity and diabetes, but had lower rates of malignancy. Compared to the pre-pandemic period, non-COVID-19 pandemic admissions had more hypertension, cerebrovascular disease, liver disease, and obesity. There were fewer low severity ED attendances during the pandemic and fewer medical admissions across all severity categories. There were fewer ED attendances with common non-respiratory illnesses including cardiac diagnoses, but no change in cardiac arrests. COVID-19 was the commonest diagnosis amongst medical admissions during the first wave and there were fewer diagnoses of pneumonia, myocardial infarction, heart failure, cellulitis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, urinary tract infection and other sepsis, but not stroke. Levels had rebounded by a year later with a trend to higher levels of stroke than before the pandemic. During the pandemic first wave, 7-day mortality was increased for ED attendances, but not for non-COVID-19 medical admissions. CONCLUSIONS Reduced ED attendances in the first wave of the pandemic suggest opportunities for reducing low severity presentations to ED in the future, but also raise the possibility of harm from delayed or missed care. Reassuringly, recent rises in attendance and admissions indicate that any deterrent effect of the pandemic on attendance is diminishing.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael E Reschen
- Department of Acute General Medicine, John Radcliffe Hospital, Oxford University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Headley Way, OX3 9DU, Oxford, UK.
| | - Jordan Bowen
- Department of Acute General Medicine, John Radcliffe Hospital, Oxford University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Headley Way, OX3 9DU, Oxford, UK
| | - Alex Novak
- Emergency Medicine Research Oxford (EMROx), John Radcliffe Hospital, Oxford University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Headley Way, Oxford, OX3 9DU, UK
| | - Matthew Giles
- Department of Acute General Medicine, John Radcliffe Hospital, Oxford University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Headley Way, OX3 9DU, Oxford, UK
| | - Sudhir Singh
- Department of Acute General Medicine, John Radcliffe Hospital, Oxford University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Headley Way, OX3 9DU, Oxford, UK
| | - Daniel Lasserson
- Department of Acute General Medicine, John Radcliffe Hospital, Oxford University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Headley Way, OX3 9DU, Oxford, UK
| | - Christopher A O'Callaghan
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, Old Road Campus, Oxford, OX3 7BN, UK
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13
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Svingel LS, Storgaard M, Esen BÖ, Ebdrup L, Ahrensberg J, Larsen KM, Nørgaard M, Sørensen HT, Christiansen CF. Prognostic and discriminative accuracy of the quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment compared with an early warning score: a Danish cohort study. Emerg Med J 2021; 39:697-700. [PMID: 34725109 DOI: 10.1136/emermed-2020-209746] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/08/2020] [Accepted: 10/18/2021] [Indexed: 11/04/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The clinical benefit of implementing the quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) instead of early warning scores (EWS) to screen all hospitalised patients for critical illness has yet to be investigated in a large, multicentre study. METHODS We conducted a cohort study including all hospitalised patients ≥18 years with EWS recorded at hospitals in the Central Denmark Region during the year 2016. The primary outcome was intensive care unit (ICU) admission and/or death within 2 days following an initial EWS. Prognostic accuracy was examined using sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value (NPV) and positive predictive value (PPV). Discriminative accuracy was examined by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). RESULTS Among 97 332 evaluated patients, 1714 (1.8%) experienced the primary outcome. The qSOFA ≥2 was less sensitive (11.7% (95% CI: 10.2% to 13.3%) vs 25.1% (95% CI: 23.1% to 27.3%)) and more specific (99.3% (95% CI: 99.2% to 99.3%) vs 97.5% (95% CI: 97.4% to 97.6%)) than EWS ≥5. The NPV was similar for the two scores (EWS ≥5, 98.6% (95% CI: 98.6% to 98.7%) and qSOFA ≥2, 98.4% (95% CI: 98.3% to 98.5%)), while the PPV was 15.1% (95% CI: 13.8% to 16.5%) for EWS ≥5 and 22.4% (95% CI: 19.7% to 25.3%) for qSOFA ≥2. The AUROC was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.70 to 0.73) for EWS and 0.66 (95% CI: 0.65 to 0.67) for qSOFA. CONCLUSION The qSOFA was less sensitive (qSOFA ≥2 vs EWS ≥5) and discriminatively accurate than the EWS for predicting ICU admission and/or death within 2 days after an initial EWS. This study did not support replacing EWS with qSOFA in all hospitalised patients.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Merete Storgaard
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark
| | - Buket Öztürk Esen
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark
| | - Lotte Ebdrup
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark
| | - Jette Ahrensberg
- Research Center for Emergency Medicine, Emergency Department, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark
| | - Kim M Larsen
- Department of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark
| | - Mette Nørgaard
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark
| | - Henrik Toft Sørensen
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark.,Department of Health Research and Policy and the Center for Population Health Sciences, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA
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The Use of Different Sepsis Risk Stratification Tools on the Wards and in Emergency Departments Uncovers Different Mortality Risks: Results of the Three Welsh National Multicenter Point-Prevalence Studies. Crit Care Explor 2021; 3:e0558. [PMID: 34704060 PMCID: PMC8542169 DOI: 10.1097/cce.0000000000000558] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text. To compare the performance of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, systemic inflammatory response syndrome, Red Flag Sepsis, and National Institute of Clinical Excellence sepsis risk stratification tools in the identification of patients at greatest risk of mortality from sepsis in nonintensive care environments.
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Brunetti E, Isaia G, Rinaldi G, Brambati T, De Vito D, Ronco G, Bo M. Comparison of Diagnostic Accuracies of qSOFA, NEWS, and MEWS to Identify Sepsis in Older Inpatients With Suspected Infection. J Am Med Dir Assoc 2021; 23:865-871.e2. [PMID: 34619118 DOI: 10.1016/j.jamda.2021.09.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/01/2021] [Revised: 08/31/2021] [Accepted: 09/01/2021] [Indexed: 10/20/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To determine and compare the accuracies of the quick Sequential (Sepsis-related) Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) and Modified and National Early Warning Scores (NEWS and MEWS) to identify sepsis in older inpatients with suspected infection. DESIGN Prospective diagnostic accuracy study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS Patients admitted to an acute geriatric unit of an Italian University Hospital with at least one sepsis risk factor and suspected infection defined as antibiotic prescription and associated culture test during hospital stay. METHODS Sepsis diagnosis was defined as the presence on discharge documents of International Classification of Diseases, Ninth revision, Clinical Modification codes for severe sepsis, septic shock, or for infection and acute organ disfunction. For each patient, clinical parameters were evaluated at least twice daily throughout hospital stay; qSOFA, NEWS, and MEWS were derived, and worst scores recorded. Positive cutoffs were set at ≥2, ≥7, and ≥5, respectively. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV, respectively), and positive and negative likelihood ratios, as well as areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCs) were calculated. RESULTS Among 230 geriatric patients with suspected infection at risk for sepsis (median age 86 years, 49% women), 30.9% had a sepsis diagnosis. A qSOFA ≥2 was recorded in 111 (48.3%) patients, a MEWS ≥5 in 65 (28.3%), and a NEWS ≥7 in 115 (50.0%). The qSOFA showed the highest sensitivity [81.7%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 71.7%-89.5%], but low specificity (66.7%, 95% CI 59.1%-73.7%), resulting in a high NPV (89.1%; 95% CI 82.7%-93.8%) and poor PPV (52.3%, 95% CI 43.0%-61.4%). The AUROC for qSOFA was 0.76 (95% CI 0.69-0.83), comparable with that of NEWS (0.74, 95% CI 0.67-0.81, P = .44), but significantly higher than that of MEWS (0.70, 95% CI 0.63-0.77, P = .04). CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS Repeated qSOFA determinations are useful to rule out sepsis in geriatric inpatients with suspected infection, but poorly support its diagnosis due to low specificity. More complex MEWS and NEWS do not perform better. Implementation of clinical scores to reliably identify sepsis in older patients is urgently needed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Enrico Brunetti
- Department of Medical Sciences, Università degli Studi di Torino, Section of Geriatrics, A.O.U. Città della Salute e della Scienza di Torino, Turin, Italy.
| | - Gianluca Isaia
- Department of Medical Sciences, Università degli Studi di Torino, Section of Geriatrics, A.O.U. Città della Salute e della Scienza di Torino, Turin, Italy
| | - Gianluca Rinaldi
- Department of Medical Sciences, Università degli Studi di Torino, Section of Geriatrics, A.O.U. Città della Salute e della Scienza di Torino, Turin, Italy
| | - Tiziana Brambati
- Department of Medical Sciences, Università degli Studi di Torino, Section of Geriatrics, A.O.U. Città della Salute e della Scienza di Torino, Turin, Italy
| | - Davide De Vito
- Department of Medical Sciences, Università degli Studi di Torino, Section of Geriatrics, A.O.U. Città della Salute e della Scienza di Torino, Turin, Italy
| | - Giuliano Ronco
- Department of Medical Sciences, Università degli Studi di Torino, Section of Geriatrics, A.O.U. Città della Salute e della Scienza di Torino, Turin, Italy
| | - Mario Bo
- Department of Medical Sciences, Università degli Studi di Torino, Section of Geriatrics, A.O.U. Città della Salute e della Scienza di Torino, Turin, Italy
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Egi M, Ogura H, Yatabe T, Atagi K, Inoue S, Iba T, Kakihana Y, Kawasaki T, Kushimoto S, Kuroda Y, Kotani J, Shime N, Taniguchi T, Tsuruta R, Doi K, Doi M, Nakada TA, Nakane M, Fujishima S, Hosokawa N, Masuda Y, Matsushima A, Matsuda N, Yamakawa K, Hara Y, Sakuraya M, Ohshimo S, Aoki Y, Inada M, Umemura Y, Kawai Y, Kondo Y, Saito H, Taito S, Takeda C, Terayama T, Tohira H, Hashimoto H, Hayashida K, Hifumi T, Hirose T, Fukuda T, Fujii T, Miura S, Yasuda H, Abe T, Andoh K, Iida Y, Ishihara T, Ide K, Ito K, Ito Y, Inata Y, Utsunomiya A, Unoki T, Endo K, Ouchi A, Ozaki M, Ono S, Katsura M, Kawaguchi A, Kawamura Y, Kudo D, Kubo K, Kurahashi K, Sakuramoto H, Shimoyama A, Suzuki T, Sekine S, Sekino M, Takahashi N, Takahashi S, Takahashi H, Tagami T, Tajima G, Tatsumi H, Tani M, Tsuchiya A, Tsutsumi Y, Naito T, Nagae M, Nagasawa I, Nakamura K, Nishimura T, Nunomiya S, Norisue Y, Hashimoto S, Hasegawa D, Hatakeyama J, Hara N, Higashibeppu N, Furushima N, Furusono H, Matsuishi Y, Matsuyama T, Minematsu Y, Miyashita R, Miyatake Y, Moriyasu M, Yamada T, Yamada H, Yamamoto R, Yoshida T, Yoshida Y, Yoshimura J, Yotsumoto R, Yonekura H, Wada T, Watanabe E, Aoki M, Asai H, Abe T, Igarashi Y, Iguchi N, Ishikawa M, Ishimaru G, Isokawa S, Itakura R, Imahase H, Imura H, Irinoda T, Uehara K, Ushio N, Umegaki T, Egawa Y, Enomoto Y, Ota K, Ohchi Y, Ohno T, Ohbe H, Oka K, Okada N, Okada Y, Okano H, Okamoto J, Okuda H, Ogura T, Onodera Y, Oyama Y, Kainuma M, Kako E, Kashiura M, Kato H, Kanaya A, Kaneko T, Kanehata K, Kano KI, Kawano H, Kikutani K, Kikuchi H, Kido T, Kimura S, Koami H, Kobashi D, Saiki I, Sakai M, Sakamoto A, Sato T, Shiga Y, Shimoto M, Shimoyama S, Shoko T, Sugawara Y, Sugita A, Suzuki S, Suzuki Y, Suhara T, Sonota K, Takauji S, Takashima K, Takahashi S, Takahashi Y, Takeshita J, Tanaka Y, Tampo A, Tsunoyama T, Tetsuhara K, Tokunaga K, Tomioka Y, Tomita K, Tominaga N, Toyosaki M, Toyoda Y, Naito H, Nagata I, Nagato T, Nakamura Y, Nakamori Y, Nahara I, Naraba H, Narita C, Nishioka N, Nishimura T, Nishiyama K, Nomura T, Haga T, Hagiwara Y, Hashimoto K, Hatachi T, Hamasaki T, Hayashi T, Hayashi M, Hayamizu A, Haraguchi G, Hirano Y, Fujii R, Fujita M, Fujimura N, Funakoshi H, Horiguchi M, Maki J, Masunaga N, Matsumura Y, Mayumi T, Minami K, Miyazaki Y, Miyamoto K, Murata T, Yanai M, Yano T, Yamada K, Yamada N, Yamamoto T, Yoshihiro S, Tanaka H, Nishida O. The Japanese Clinical Practice Guidelines for Management of Sepsis and Septic Shock 2020 (J-SSCG 2020). J Intensive Care 2021; 9:53. [PMID: 34433491 PMCID: PMC8384927 DOI: 10.1186/s40560-021-00555-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 81] [Impact Index Per Article: 27.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/26/2021] [Accepted: 05/10/2021] [Indexed: 02/08/2023] Open
Abstract
The Japanese Clinical Practice Guidelines for Management of Sepsis and Septic Shock 2020 (J-SSCG 2020), a Japanese-specific set of clinical practice guidelines for sepsis and septic shock created as revised from J-SSCG 2016 jointly by the Japanese Society of Intensive Care Medicine and the Japanese Association for Acute Medicine, was first released in September 2020 and published in February 2021. An English-language version of these guidelines was created based on the contents of the original Japanese-language version. The purpose of this guideline is to assist medical staff in making appropriate decisions to improve the prognosis of patients undergoing treatment for sepsis and septic shock. We aimed to provide high-quality guidelines that are easy to use and understand for specialists, general clinicians, and multidisciplinary medical professionals. J-SSCG 2016 took up new subjects that were not present in SSCG 2016 (e.g., ICU-acquired weakness [ICU-AW], post-intensive care syndrome [PICS], and body temperature management). The J-SSCG 2020 covered a total of 22 areas with four additional new areas (patient- and family-centered care, sepsis treatment system, neuro-intensive treatment, and stress ulcers). A total of 118 important clinical issues (clinical questions, CQs) were extracted regardless of the presence or absence of evidence. These CQs also include those that have been given particular focus within Japan. This is a large-scale guideline covering multiple fields; thus, in addition to the 25 committee members, we had the participation and support of a total of 226 members who are professionals (physicians, nurses, physiotherapists, clinical engineers, and pharmacists) and medical workers with a history of sepsis or critical illness. The GRADE method was adopted for making recommendations, and the modified Delphi method was used to determine recommendations by voting from all committee members.As a result, 79 GRADE-based recommendations, 5 Good Practice Statements (GPS), 18 expert consensuses, 27 answers to background questions (BQs), and summaries of definitions and diagnosis of sepsis were created as responses to 118 CQs. We also incorporated visual information for each CQ according to the time course of treatment, and we will also distribute this as an app. The J-SSCG 2020 is expected to be widely used as a useful bedside guideline in the field of sepsis treatment both in Japan and overseas involving multiple disciplines.
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Affiliation(s)
- Moritoki Egi
- Department of Surgery Related, Division of Anesthesiology, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, Kusunoki-cho 7-5-2, Chuo-ku, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan.
| | - Hiroshi Ogura
- Department of Traumatology and Acute Critical Medicine, Osaka University Medical School, Yamadaoka 2-15, Suita, Osaka, Japan.
| | - Tomoaki Yatabe
- Department of Anesthesiology and Critical Care Medicine, Fujita Health University School of Medicine, Toyoake, Japan
| | - Kazuaki Atagi
- Department of Intensive Care Unit, Nara Prefectural General Medical Center, Nara, Japan
| | - Shigeaki Inoue
- Department of Disaster and Emergency Medicine, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, Kobe, Japan
| | - Toshiaki Iba
- Department of Emergency and Disaster Medicine, Juntendo University, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Yasuyuki Kakihana
- Department of Emergency and Intensive Care Medicine, Kagoshima University Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, Kagoshima, Japan
| | - Tatsuya Kawasaki
- Department of Pediatric Critical Care, Shizuoka Children's Hospital, Shizuoka, Japan
| | - Shigeki Kushimoto
- Division of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, Sendai, Japan
| | - Yasuhiro Kuroda
- Department of Emergency, Disaster, and Critical Care Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Kagawa University, Kagawa, Japan
| | - Joji Kotani
- Department of Surgery Related, Division of Disaster and Emergency Medicine, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, Kobe, Japan
| | - Nobuaki Shime
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Graduate School of Biomedical and Health Sciences, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima, Japan
| | - Takumi Taniguchi
- Department of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine, Kanazawa University, Kanazawa, Japan
| | - Ryosuke Tsuruta
- Acute and General Medicine, Yamaguchi University Graduate School of Medicine, Ube, Japan
| | - Kent Doi
- Department of Acute Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Matsuyuki Doi
- Department of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine, Hamamatsu University School of Medicine, Hamamatsu, Japan
| | - Taka-Aki Nakada
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Chiba University Graduate School of Medicine, Chiba, Japan
| | - Masaki Nakane
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Yamagata University Hospital, Yamagata, Japan
| | - Seitaro Fujishima
- Center for General Medicine Education, Keio University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Naoto Hosokawa
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Kameda Medical Center, Kamogawa, Japan
| | - Yoshiki Masuda
- Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Sapporo Medical University School of Medicine, Sapporo, Japan
| | - Asako Matsushima
- Department of Advancing Acute Medicine, Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Nagoya City University, Nagoya, Japan
| | - Naoyuki Matsuda
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Nagoya University Graduate School of Medicine, Nagoya, Japan
| | - Kazuma Yamakawa
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Osaka Medical College, Osaka, Japan
| | - Yoshitaka Hara
- Department of Anesthesiology and Critical Care Medicine, Fujita Health University School of Medicine, Toyoake, Japan
| | - Masaaki Sakuraya
- Department of Emergency and Intensive Care Medicine, JA Hiroshima General Hospital, Hatsukaichi, Japan
| | - Shinichiro Ohshimo
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Graduate School of Biomedical and Health Sciences, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima, Japan
| | - Yoshitaka Aoki
- Department of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine, Hamamatsu University School of Medicine, Hamamatsu, Japan
| | - Mai Inada
- Member of Japanese Association for Acute Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Yutaka Umemura
- Division of Trauma and Surgical Critical Care, Osaka General Medical Center, Osaka, Japan
| | - Yusuke Kawai
- Department of Nursing, Fujita Health University Hospital, Toyoake, Japan
| | - Yutaka Kondo
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Juntendo University Urayasu Hospital, Urayasu, Japan
| | - Hiroki Saito
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, St. Marianna University School of Medicine, Yokohama City Seibu Hospital, Yokohama, Japan
| | - Shunsuke Taito
- Division of Rehabilitation, Department of Clinical Support and Practice, Hiroshima University Hospital, Hiroshima, Japan
| | - Chikashi Takeda
- Department of Anesthesia, Kyoto University Hospital, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Takero Terayama
- Department of Psychiatry, School of Medicine, National Defense Medical College, Tokorozawa, Japan
| | | | - Hideki Hashimoto
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine/Infectious Disease, Hitachi General Hospital, Hitachi, Japan
| | - Kei Hayashida
- The Feinstein Institute for Medical Research, Manhasset, NY, USA
| | - Toru Hifumi
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, St. Luke's International Hospital, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Tomoya Hirose
- Emergency and Critical Care Medical Center, Osaka Police Hospital, Osaka, Japan
| | - Tatsuma Fukuda
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Graduate School of Medicine, University of the Ryukyus, Okinawa, Japan
| | - Tomoko Fujii
- Intensive Care Unit, Jikei University Hospital, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Shinya Miura
- The Royal Children's Hospital Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Hideto Yasuda
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Jichi Medical University Saitama Medical Center, Saitama, Japan
| | - Toshikazu Abe
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Tsukuba Memorial Hospital, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Kohkichi Andoh
- Division of Anesthesiology, Division of Intensive Care, Division of Emergency and Critical Care, Sendai City Hospital, Sendai, Japan
| | - Yuki Iida
- Department of Physical Therapy, School of Health Sciences, Toyohashi Sozo University, Toyohashi, Japan
| | - Tadashi Ishihara
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Juntendo University Urayasu Hospital, Urayasu, Japan
| | - Kentaro Ide
- Critical Care Medicine, National Center for Child Health and Development, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Kenta Ito
- Department of General Pediatrics, Aichi Children's Health and Medical Center, Obu, Japan
| | - Yusuke Ito
- Department of Infectious Disease, Hyogo Prefectural Amagasaki General Medical Center, Amagasaki, Japan
| | - Yu Inata
- Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Osaka Women's and Children's Hospital, Izumi, Japan
| | - Akemi Utsunomiya
- Human Health Science, Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Takeshi Unoki
- Department of Acute and Critical Care Nursing, School of Nursing, Sapporo City University, Sapporo, Japan
| | - Koji Endo
- Department of Pharmacoepidemiology, Kyoto University Graduate School of Medicine and Public Health, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Akira Ouchi
- College of Nursing, Ibaraki Christian University, Hitachi, Japan
| | - Masayuki Ozaki
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Komaki City Hospital, Komaki, Japan
| | - Satoshi Ono
- Gastroenterological Center, Shinkuki General Hospital, Kuki, Japan
| | | | | | - Yusuke Kawamura
- Department of Rehabilitation, Showa General Hospital, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Daisuke Kudo
- Division of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, Sendai, Japan
| | - Kenji Kubo
- Department of Emergency Medicine and Department of Infectious Diseases, Japanese Red Cross Wakayama Medical Center, Wakayama, Japan
| | - Kiyoyasu Kurahashi
- Department of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine, International University of Health and Welfare School of Medicine, Narita, Japan
| | | | - Akira Shimoyama
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Jichi Medical University Saitama Medical Center, Saitama, Japan
| | - Takeshi Suzuki
- Department of Anesthesiology, Tokai University School of Medicine, Isehara, Japan
| | - Shusuke Sekine
- Department of Anesthesiology, Tokyo Medical University, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Motohiro Sekino
- Division of Intensive Care, Nagasaki University Hospital, Nagasaki, Japan
| | - Nozomi Takahashi
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Chiba University Graduate School of Medicine, Chiba, Japan
| | - Sei Takahashi
- Center for Innovative Research for Communities and Clinical Excellence (CiRC2LE), Fukushima Medical University, Fukushima, Japan
| | - Hiroshi Takahashi
- Department of Cardiology, Steel Memorial Muroran Hospital, Muroran, Japan
| | - Takashi Tagami
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Nippon Medical School Musashi Kosugi Hospital, Kawasaki, Japan
| | - Goro Tajima
- Nagasaki University Hospital Acute and Critical Care Center, Nagasaki, Japan
| | - Hiroomi Tatsumi
- Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Sapporo Medical University School of Medicine, Sapporo, Japan
| | - Masanori Tani
- Division of Critical Care Medicine, Saitama Children's Medical Center, Saitama, Japan
| | - Asuka Tsuchiya
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, National Hospital Organization Mito Medical Center, Ibaraki, Japan
| | - Yusuke Tsutsumi
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, National Hospital Organization Mito Medical Center, Ibaraki, Japan
| | - Takaki Naito
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, St. Marianna University School of Medicine, Kawasaki, Japan
| | - Masaharu Nagae
- Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Kobe University Hospital, Kobe, Japan
| | | | - Kensuke Nakamura
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Hitachi General Hospital, Hitachi, Japan
| | - Tetsuro Nishimura
- Department of Traumatology and Critical Care Medicine, Osaka City University Graduate School of Medicine, Osaka, Japan
| | - Shin Nunomiya
- Department of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine, Division of Intensive Care, Jichi Medical University School of Medicine, Shimotsuke, Japan
| | - Yasuhiro Norisue
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Tokyo Bay Urayasu Ichikawa Medical Center, Urayasu, Japan
| | - Satoru Hashimoto
- Department of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine, Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Daisuke Hasegawa
- Department of Anesthesiology and Critical Care Medicine, Fujita Health University School of Medicine, Toyoake, Japan
| | - Junji Hatakeyama
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, National Hospital Organization Tokyo Medical Center, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Naoki Hara
- Department of Pharmacy, Yokohama Rosai Hospital, Yokohama, Japan
| | - Naoki Higashibeppu
- Department of Anesthesiology and Nutrition Support Team, Kobe City Medical Center General Hospital, Kobe City Hospital Organization, Kobe, Japan
| | - Nana Furushima
- Department of Anesthesiology, Kobe University Hospital, Kobe, Japan
| | - Hirotaka Furusono
- Department of Rehabilitation, University of Tsukuba Hospital/Exult Co., Ltd., Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Yujiro Matsuishi
- Doctoral program in Clinical Sciences. Graduate School of Comprehensive Human Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Tasuku Matsuyama
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Yusuke Minematsu
- Department of Clinical Engineering, Osaka University Hospital, Suita, Japan
| | - Ryoichi Miyashita
- Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Showa University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Yuji Miyatake
- Department of Clinical Engineering, Kakogawa Central City Hospital, Kakogawa, Japan
| | - Megumi Moriyasu
- Division of Respiratory Care and Rapid Response System, Intensive Care Center, Kitasato University Hospital, Sagamihara, Japan
| | - Toru Yamada
- Department of Nursing, Toho University Omori Medical Center, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Hiroyuki Yamada
- Department of Primary Care and Emergency Medicine, Kyoto University Hospital, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Ryo Yamamoto
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Keio University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Takeshi Yoshida
- Department of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine, Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine, Suita, Japan
| | - Yuhei Yoshida
- Nursing Department, Osaka General Medical Center, Osaka, Japan
| | - Jumpei Yoshimura
- Division of Trauma and Surgical Critical Care, Osaka General Medical Center, Osaka, Japan
| | | | - Hiroshi Yonekura
- Department of Clinical Anesthesiology, Mie University Hospital, Tsu, Japan
| | - Takeshi Wada
- Department of Anesthesiology and Critical Care Medicine, Division of Acute and Critical Care Medicine, Hokkaido University Faculty of Medicine, Sapporo, Japan
| | - Eizo Watanabe
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Eastern Chiba Medical Center, Togane, Japan
| | - Makoto Aoki
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Gunma University Graduate School of Medicine, Maebashi, Japan
| | - Hideki Asai
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Nara Medical University, Kashihara, Japan
| | - Takakuni Abe
- Department of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care, Oita University Hospital, Yufu, Japan
| | - Yutaka Igarashi
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Nippon Medical School Hospital, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Naoya Iguchi
- Department of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine, Graduate School of Medicine, Osaka University, Suita, Japan
| | - Masami Ishikawa
- Department of Anesthesiology, Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Kure Kyosai Hospital, Kure, Japan
| | - Go Ishimaru
- Department of General Internal Medicine, Soka Municipal Hospital, Soka, Japan
| | - Shutaro Isokawa
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, St. Luke's International Hospital, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Ryuta Itakura
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Tokyo Metropolitan Children's Medical Center, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Hisashi Imahase
- Department of Biomedical Ethics, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Haruki Imura
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Rakuwakai Otowa Hospital, Kyoto, Japan
- Department of Health Informatics, School of Public Health, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
| | | | - Kenji Uehara
- Department of Anesthesiology, National Hospital Organization Iwakuni Clinical Center, Iwakuni, Japan
| | - Noritaka Ushio
- Advanced Medical Emergency Department and Critical Care Center, Japan Red Cross Maebashi Hospital, Maebashi, Japan
| | - Takeshi Umegaki
- Department of Anesthesiology, Kansai Medical University, Hirakata, Japan
| | - Yuko Egawa
- Advanced Emergency and Critical Care Center, Saitama Red Cross Hospital, Saitama, Japan
| | - Yuki Enomoto
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Kohei Ota
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Graduate School of Biomedical and Health Sciences, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima, Japan
| | - Yoshifumi Ohchi
- Department of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care, Oita University Hospital, Yufu, Japan
| | - Takanori Ohno
- Department of Emergency and Critical Medicine, Showa University Fujigaoka Hospital, Yokohama, Japan
| | - Hiroyuki Ohbe
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Health Economics, School of Public Health, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | | | - Nobunaga Okada
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Yohei Okada
- Department of Primary care and Emergency medicine, Kyoto University Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Hiromu Okano
- Department of Anesthesiology, Kyorin University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Jun Okamoto
- Department of ER, Hashimoto Municipal Hospital, Hashimoto, Japan
| | - Hiroshi Okuda
- Department of Community Medical Supports, Tohoku Medical Megabank Organization, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan
| | - Takayuki Ogura
- Tochigi prefectural Emergency and Critical Care Center, Imperial Gift Foundation Saiseikai, Utsunomiya Hospital, Utsunomiya, Japan
| | - Yu Onodera
- Department of Anesthesiology, Faculty of Medicine, Yamagata University, Yamagata, Japan
| | - Yuhta Oyama
- Department of Internal Medicine, Dialysis Center, Kichijoji Asahi Hospital, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Motoshi Kainuma
- Anesthesiology, Emergency Medicine, and Intensive Care Division, Inazawa Municipal Hospital, Inazawa, Japan
| | - Eisuke Kako
- Department of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine, Nagoya-City University Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Nagoya, Japan
| | - Masahiro Kashiura
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Jichi Medical University Saitama Medical Center, Saitama, Japan
| | - Hiromi Kato
- Department of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine, Hamamatsu University School of Medicine, Hamamatsu, Japan
| | - Akihiro Kanaya
- Department of Anesthesiology, Sendai Medical Center, Sendai, Japan
| | - Tadashi Kaneko
- Emergency and Critical Care Center, Mie University Hospital, Tsu, Japan
| | - Keita Kanehata
- Advanced Medical Emergency Department and Critical Care Center, Japan Red Cross Maebashi Hospital, Maebashi, Japan
| | - Ken-Ichi Kano
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Fukui Prefectural Hospital, Fukui, Japan
| | - Hiroyuki Kawano
- Department of Gastroenterological Surgery, Onga Hospital, Fukuoka, Japan
| | - Kazuya Kikutani
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Graduate School of Biomedical and Health Sciences, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima, Japan
| | - Hitoshi Kikuchi
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Seirei Mikatahara General Hospital, Hamamatsu, Japan
| | - Takahiro Kido
- Department of Pediatrics, University of Tsukuba Hospital, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Sho Kimura
- Division of Critical Care Medicine, Saitama Children's Medical Center, Saitama, Japan
| | - Hiroyuki Koami
- Center for Translational Injury Research, University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, USA
| | - Daisuke Kobashi
- Advanced Medical Emergency Department and Critical Care Center, Japan Red Cross Maebashi Hospital, Maebashi, Japan
| | - Iwao Saiki
- Department of Anesthesiology, Tokyo Medical University, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Masahito Sakai
- Department of General Medicine Shintakeo Hospital, Takeo, Japan
| | - Ayaka Sakamoto
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, University of Tsukuba Hospital, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Tetsuya Sato
- Tohoku University Hospital Emergency Center, Sendai, Japan
| | - Yasuhiro Shiga
- Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Center for Advanced Joint Function and Reconstructive Spine Surgery, Graduate school of Medicine, Chiba University, Chiba, Japan
| | - Manabu Shimoto
- Department of Primary care and Emergency medicine, Kyoto University Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Shinya Shimoyama
- Department of Pediatric Cardiology and Intensive Care, Gunma Children's Medical Center, Shibukawa, Japan
| | - Tomohisa Shoko
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Tokyo Women's Medical University Medical Center East, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Yoh Sugawara
- Department of Anesthesiology, Yokohama City University, Yokohama, Japan
| | - Atsunori Sugita
- Department of Acute Medicine, Division of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Nihon University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Satoshi Suzuki
- Department of Intensive Care, Okayama University Hospital, Okayama, Japan
| | - Yuji Suzuki
- Department of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine, Hamamatsu University School of Medicine, Hamamatsu, Japan
| | - Tomohiro Suhara
- Department of Anesthesiology, Keio University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Kenji Sonota
- Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Miyagi Children's Hospital, Sendai, Japan
| | - Shuhei Takauji
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Asahikawa Medical University, Asahikawa, Japan
| | - Kohei Takashima
- Critical Care Medicine, National Center for Child Health and Development, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Sho Takahashi
- Department of Cardiology, Fukuyama City Hospital, Fukuyama, Japan
| | - Yoko Takahashi
- Department of General Internal Medicine, Koga General Hospital, Koga, Japan
| | - Jun Takeshita
- Department of Anesthesiology, Osaka Women's and Children's Hospital, Izumi, Japan
| | - Yuuki Tanaka
- Fukuoka Prefectural Psychiatric Center, Dazaifu Hospital, Dazaifu, Japan
| | - Akihito Tampo
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Asahikawa Medical University, Asahikawa, Japan
| | - Taichiro Tsunoyama
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Teikyo University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Kenichi Tetsuhara
- Emergency and Critical Care Center, Kyushu University Hospital, Fukuoka, Japan
| | - Kentaro Tokunaga
- Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Kumamoto University Hospital, Kumamoto, Japan
| | - Yoshihiro Tomioka
- Department of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Unit, Todachuo General Hospital, Toda, Japan
| | - Kentaro Tomita
- Department of Pediatrics, Keio University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Naoki Tominaga
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Nippon Medical School Hospital, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Mitsunobu Toyosaki
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Keio University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Yukitoshi Toyoda
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Saiseikai Yokohamashi Tobu Hospital, Yokohama, Japan
| | - Hiromichi Naito
- Department of Emergency, Critical Care, and Disaster Medicine, Okayama University Graduate School of Medicine, Dentistry and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Okayama, Japan
| | - Isao Nagata
- Intensive Care Unit, Yokohama City Minato Red Cross Hospital, Yokohama, Japan
| | - Tadashi Nagato
- Department of Respiratory Medicine, Tokyo Yamate Medical Center, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Yoshimi Nakamura
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Japanese Red Cross Kyoto Daini Hospital, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Yuki Nakamori
- Department of Clinical Anesthesiology, Mie University Hospital, Tsu, Japan
| | - Isao Nahara
- Department of Anesthesiology and Critical Care Medicine, Nagoya Daini Red Cross Hospital, Nagoya, Japan
| | - Hiromu Naraba
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Hitachi General Hospital, Hitachi, Japan
| | - Chihiro Narita
- Department of Emergency Medicine and Intensive Care Medicine, Shizuoka General Hospital, Shizuoka, Japan
| | - Norihiro Nishioka
- Department of Preventive Services, Kyoto University Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Tomoya Nishimura
- Advanced Medical Emergency Department and Critical Care Center, Japan Red Cross Maebashi Hospital, Maebashi, Japan
| | - Kei Nishiyama
- Division of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine Niigata University Graduate School of Medical and Dental Science, Niigata, Japan
| | - Tomohisa Nomura
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Juntendo University Nerima Hospital, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Taiki Haga
- Department of Pediatric Critical Care Medicine, Osaka City General Hospital, Osaka, Japan
| | - Yoshihiro Hagiwara
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Saiseikai Utsunomiya Hospital, Utsunomiya, Japan
| | - Katsuhiko Hashimoto
- Research Associate of Minimally Invasive Surgical and Medical Oncology, Fukushima Medical University, Fukushima, Japan
| | - Takeshi Hatachi
- Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Osaka Women's and Children's Hospital, Izumi, Japan
| | - Toshiaki Hamasaki
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Japanese Red Cross Society Wakayama Medical Center, Wakayama, Japan
| | - Takuya Hayashi
- Division of Critical Care Medicine, Saitama Children's Medical Center, Saitama, Japan
| | - Minoru Hayashi
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Fukui Prefectural Hospital, Fukui, Japan
| | - Atsuki Hayamizu
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Saitama Saiseikai Kurihashi Hospital, Kuki, Japan
| | - Go Haraguchi
- Division of Intensive Care Unit, Sakakibara Heart Institute, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Yohei Hirano
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Juntendo University Urayasu Hospital, Urayasu, Japan
| | - Ryo Fujii
- Department of Emergency Medicine and Critical Care Medicine, Tochigi Prefectural Emergency and Critical Care Center, Imperial Foundation Saiseikai Utsunomiya Hospital, Utsunomiya, Japan
| | - Motoki Fujita
- Acute and General Medicine, Yamaguchi University Graduate School of Medicine, Ube, Japan
| | - Naoyuki Fujimura
- Department of Anesthesiology, St. Mary's Hospital, Our Lady of the Snow Social Medical Corporation, Kurume, Japan
| | - Hiraku Funakoshi
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Tokyo Bay Urayasu Ichikawa Medical Center, Urayasu, Japan
| | - Masahito Horiguchi
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Japanese Red Cross Kyoto Daiichi Hospital, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Jun Maki
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, Kyushu University Hospital, Fukuoka, Japan
| | - Naohisa Masunaga
- Department of Healthcare Epidemiology, School of Public Health in the Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Yosuke Matsumura
- Department of Intensive Care, Chiba Emergency Medical Center, Chiba, Japan
| | - Takuya Mayumi
- Department of Internal Medicine, Kanazawa Municipal Hospital, Kanazawa, Japan
| | - Keisuke Minami
- Ishikawa Prefectual Central Hospital Emergency and Critical Care Center, Kanazawa, Japan
| | - Yuya Miyazaki
- Department of Emergency and General Internal Medicine, Saiseikai Kawaguchi General Hospital, Kawaguchi, Japan
| | - Kazuyuki Miyamoto
- Department of Emergency and Disaster Medicine, Showa University, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Teppei Murata
- Department of Cardiology, Tokyo Metropolitan Geriatric Hospital and Institute of Gerontology, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Machi Yanai
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Kobe City Medical Center General Hospital, Kobe, Japan
| | - Takao Yano
- Department of Critical Care and Emergency Medicine, Miyazaki Prefectural Nobeoka Hospital, Nobeoka, Japan
| | - Kohei Yamada
- Department of Traumatology and Critical Care Medicine, National Defense Medical College, Tokorozawa, Japan
| | - Naoki Yamada
- Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Fukui Hospital, Fukui, Japan
| | - Tomonori Yamamoto
- Department of Intensive Care Unit, Nara Prefectural General Medical Center, Nara, Japan
| | - Shodai Yoshihiro
- Pharmaceutical Department, JA Hiroshima General Hospital, Hatsukaichi, Japan
| | - Hiroshi Tanaka
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Juntendo University Urayasu Hospital, Urayasu, Japan
| | - Osamu Nishida
- Department of Anesthesiology and Critical Care Medicine, Fujita Health University School of Medicine, Toyoake, Japan
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Sabir L, Ramlakhan S, Goodacre S. Comparison of qSOFA and Hospital Early Warning Scores for prognosis in suspected sepsis in emergency department patients: a systematic review. Emerg Med J 2021; 39:284-294. [PMID: 34404680 DOI: 10.1136/emermed-2020-210416] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/16/2020] [Accepted: 07/16/2021] [Indexed: 12/20/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Sepsis is a major cause of morbidity and mortality and many tools exist to facilitate early recognition. This review compares two tools: the quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) and Early Warning Scores (National/Modified Early Warning Scores (NEWS/MEWS)) for predicting intensive care unit (ICU) admission and mortality when applied in the emergency department. METHODS A literature search was conducted using Medline, CINAHL, Embase and Cochrane Library, handsearching of references and a grey literature search with no language or date restrictions. Two authors selected studies and quality assessment completed using QUADAS-2. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), sensitivities and specificities were compared. RESULTS 13 studies were included, totalling 403 865 patients. All reported mortality and six reported ICU admission.The ranges for AUROC estimates varied from little better than chance to good prediction of mortality (NEWS: 0.59-0.88; qSOFA: 0.57-0.79; MEWS 0.56-0.75), however, individual papers generally reported higher AUROC values for NEWS than qSOFA. NEWS values demonstrated a tendency towards better sensitivity for ICU admission (NEWS ≥5, 46%-91%; qSOFA ≥2, 12%-53%) and mortality (NEWS ≥5, 51%-97%; qSOFA ≥2, 14%-71%) but lower specificity (ICU: NEWS ≥5, 25%-91%; qSOFA ≥2, 67%-99%; mortality: NEWS ≥5, 22%-91%; qSOFA ≥2, 58%-99%). CONCLUSION The wide range of AUROC estimates and high heterogeneity limit our conclusions. Allowing for this, the NEWS AUROC was consistently higher than qSOFA within individual papers. Both scores allow threshold setting, determined by the preferred compromise between sensitivity and specificity. At established thresholds NEWS tended to higher sensitivity while qSOFA tended to a higher specificity. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER CRD42019131414.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lisa Sabir
- School of Health and Related Research (ScHARR), The University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
| | - Shammi Ramlakhan
- Emergency Department, Sheffield Children's NHS Foundation Trust, Sheffield, UK
| | - Steve Goodacre
- School of Health and Related Research (ScHARR), The University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
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Sabir L, Wharton L, Goodacre S. Retrospective single-centre descriptive study of the characteristics, management and outcomes of adult patients with suspected sepsis in the emergency department. Emerg Med J 2021; 39:272-278. [PMID: 34362822 DOI: 10.1136/emermed-2020-211111] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/28/2020] [Accepted: 07/16/2021] [Indexed: 12/29/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Guidelines for adults presenting to the emergency department (ED) with suspected sepsis recommend protocols and bundles that promote rapid and potentially intensive treatment, but give little consideration of how patient characteristics, such as age, functional status and comorbidities, might influence management. This study aimed to describe the characteristics, management and outcomes of adults attending the ED with suspected sepsis, and specifically describe the prevalence of comorbidities, functional impairment and escalations of care. METHODS We undertook a single-centre retrospective observational study involving medical record review of a random sample of adults admitted to an ED between February 2018 and January 2019 with suspected sepsis. Descriptive statistics were used with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for key proportions. RESULTS We included 509 patients (median age 74 years), of whom 49.3% met the Sepsis-3 criteria. Less than half of the patients were living at home independently (42.5%) or could walk independently (41.5%), 19.3% were care home residents and 89.2% of patients had one or more comorbidity. 22% had a pre-existing do not attempt resuscitation order. 6.5% were referred to intensive care, and 34.3% of the 13.2% who died in-hospital had an escalation plan explicitly documented. CONCLUSION Adults with suspected sepsis have substantial functional limitations, comorbidities and treatment directives that should be considered in guidelines, especially recommendations for escalation of care.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lisa Sabir
- School of Health and Related Research, The University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
| | - Laura Wharton
- Academic Unit of Reproductive and Developmental Medicine, The University of Sheffield Jessop Hospital for Women, Sheffield, UK
| | - Steve Goodacre
- School of Health and Related Research, The University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
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Prasad PA, Fang MC, Martinez SP, Liu KD, Kangelaris KN. Identifying the Sickest During Triage: Using Point-of-Care Severity Scores to Predict Prognosis in Emergency Department Patients With Suspected Sepsis. J Hosp Med 2021; 16:453-461. [PMID: 34328843 PMCID: PMC8340957 DOI: 10.12788/jhm.3642] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/07/2020] [Accepted: 04/27/2021] [Indexed: 12/20/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Sepsis progresses rapidly and is associated with considerable morbidity and mortality. Bedside risk stratification scores can quickly identify patients at greatest risk of poor outcomes; however, there is lack of consensus on the best scale to use. OBJECTIVE To compare the ability of quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA), the National Early Warning System (NEWS2), and the Shock Index-which does not require mental status assessment-to predict poor outcomes among patients with suspected sepsis during triage. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Retrospective cohort study of adults presenting to an academic emergency department (ED) from June 2012 to December 2018 who had blood cultures and intravenous antibiotics within 24 hours. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Clinical data were collected from the electronic health record. Patients were considered positive at qSOFA ≥2, Shock Index >0.7, or NEWS2 ≥5 scores. We calculated test characteristics and area under the receiver operating characteristics curves (AUROCs) to predict in-hospital mortality and ED-to-intensive care unit (ICU) admission. RESULTS We included 23,837 ED patients; 1,921(8.1%) were qSOFA-positive, 4,273 (17.9%) Shock Index-positive, and 11,832 (49.6%) NEWS2-positive. There were 1,427 (6.0%) deaths and 3,149 (13.2%) ED-to-ICU admissions in the sample. NEWS2 had the highest sensitivity for in-hospital mortality (76.0%) and ED-to-ICU admission (78.9%). qSOFA had the highest specificity for in-hospital mortality (93.4%) and ED-to-ICU admission (95.2%). Shock Index exhibited the highest AUROC for in-hospital mortality (0.648; 95 CI, 0.635-0.662) and ED-to-ICU admission (0.680; 95% CI, 0.617-0.689). Test characteristics were similar among those with sepsis. CONCLUSIONS Institution priorities should drive score selection, balancing sensitivity and specificity. In our study, qSOFA was highly specific and NEWS2 was the most sensitive for ruling out patients at high risk. Performance of the Shock Index fell between qSOFA and NEWS2 and could be considered because it is easy to implement.
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Affiliation(s)
- Priya A Prasad
- Division of Hospital Medicine, Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, California
- Corresponding Author: Priya A Prasad, PhD, MPH;
| | - Margaret C Fang
- Division of Hospital Medicine, Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, California
| | - Sandra P Martinez
- Division of Hospital Medicine, Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, California
| | - Kathleen D Liu
- Divisions of Nephrology and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California
| | - Kirsten N Kangelaris
- Division of Hospital Medicine, Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, California
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20
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Zhang K, Zhang X, Ding W, Xuan N, Tian B, Huang T, Zhang Z, Cui W, Huang H, Zhang G. National Early Warning Score Does Not Accurately Predict Mortality for Patients With Infection Outside the Intensive Care Unit: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. Front Med (Lausanne) 2021; 8:704358. [PMID: 34336903 PMCID: PMC8319382 DOI: 10.3389/fmed.2021.704358] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/02/2021] [Accepted: 06/21/2021] [Indexed: 12/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Background: The prognostic value of the national early warning score (NEWS) in patients with infections remains controversial. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic accuracy of NEWS for prediction of in-hospital mortality in patients with infections outside the intensive care unit (ICU). Methods: We searched PubMed, Embase, and Scopus for related articles from January 2012 to April 2021. Sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios were pooled by using the bivariate random-effects model. Overall prognostic performance was summarized by using the area under the curve (AUC). We performed subgroup analyses to assess the prognostic accuracy of NEWS in selected populations. Results: A total of 21 studies with 107,008 participants were included. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of NEWS were 0.71 and 0.60. The pooled AUC of NEWS was 0.70, which was similar to quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA, AUC: 0.70) and better than systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS, AUC: 0.60). However, the sensitivity (0.55) and AUC (0.63) of NEWS were poor in elder patients. The NEWS of 5 was more sensitive, which was a better threshold for activating urgent assessment and treatment. Conclusions: The NEWS had good diagnostic accuracy for early prediction of mortality in patients with infections outside the ICU, and the sensitivity and specificity were more moderate when compared with qSOFA and SIRS. Insufficient sensitivity and poor performance in the elder population may have limitations as an early warning score for adverse outcomes. NEWS should be used for continuous monitoring rather than a single time point predictive tool.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kai Zhang
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Xing Zhang
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China.,Medical Security Bureau of Yinzhou District, Ningbo, China
| | - Wenyun Ding
- Department of Respiration and Critical Care Medicine, Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China.,Department of Respiration Medicine, Community Health Service Center, Shanghai, China
| | - Nanxia Xuan
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Baoping Tian
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Tiancha Huang
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Zhaocai Zhang
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Wei Cui
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Huaqiong Huang
- Department of Respiration and Critical Care Medicine, Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Gensheng Zhang
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
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21
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Camargo Rubio RD. Los aspectos morales bioéticos y científicos guían las decisiones en el contexto de recursos escasos durante la pandemia por COVID-19. ACTA COLOMBIANA DE CUIDADO INTENSIVO 2021. [PMCID: PMC7664473 DOI: 10.1016/j.acci.2020.10.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
Introducción Las instituciones de salud podrán verse enfrentadas al desbordamiento en la atención médica y disminución de recursos en tiempos de la pandemia por COVID-19. De ser así tendrán que tomar decisiones basadas en el principio de justicia distributiva para beneficiar a quien más lo necesite y generar así el mayor bien social. Objetivo Analizar los aspectos morales, bioéticos y científicos en las decisiones que se toman en el contexto de recursos escasos por la pandemia por COVID-19. Metodología Se realizó un análisis y reflexión sobre los aspectos morales, bioéticos y científicos, basados en conceptos éticos reportados en la literatura médica y emitidos durante la pandemia por COVID-19. Resultados Para el análisis y reflexión se tomaron en cuenta tres aspectos: 1. El fundamento moral de la decisión (acción moral, dilema ético y conflicto de interés y teorías morales). 2. El fundamento bioético de la decisión (profesión médica, comités de ética hospitalaria, la ética clínica, principios de la bioética). 3. El fundamento científico de la decisión (triaje en la pandemia con sus prioridades, otras escalas de triaje). Estadística Por el tipo de estudio de reflexión no se utilizaron medidas estadísticas. Conclusión La sensibilidad moral, el razonamiento bioético y el conocimiento científico son fundamentales ante la toma de decisiones en tiempo de escasez y asignación del recurso. Siempre estarán acompañando la decisión de la justicia distributiva, haciendo respetar la dignidad y los derechos de los pacientes a la salud y la muerte digna.
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22
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Colombo CJ, Colombo RE, Maves RC, Branche AR, Cohen SH, Elie MC, George SL, Jang HJ, Kalil AC, Lindholm DA, Mularski RA, Ortiz JR, Tapson V, Liang CJ. Performance Analysis of the National Early Warning Score and Modified Early Warning Score in the Adaptive COVID-19 Treatment Trial Cohort. Crit Care Explor 2021; 3:e0474. [PMID: 34278310 PMCID: PMC8280088 DOI: 10.1097/cce.0000000000000474] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
We sought to validate prognostic scores in coronavirus disease 2019 including National Early Warning Score, Modified Early Warning Score, and age-based modifications, and define their performance characteristics. DESIGN We analyzed prospectively collected data from the Adaptive COVID-19 Treatment Trial. National Early Warning Score was collected daily during the trial, Modified Early Warning Score was calculated, and age applied to both scores. We assessed prognostic value for the end points of recovery, mechanical ventilation, and death for score at enrollment, average, and slope of score over the first 48 hours. SETTING A multisite international inpatient trial. PATIENTS A total of 1,062 adult nonpregnant inpatients with severe coronavirus disease 2019 pneumonia. INTERVENTIONS Adaptive COVID-19 Treatment Trial 1 randomized participants to receive remdesivir or placebo. The prognostic value of predictive scores was evaluated in both groups separately to assess for differential performance in the setting of remdesivir treatment. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS For mortality, baseline National Early Warning Score and Modified Early Warning Score were weakly to moderately prognostic (c-index, 0.60-0.68), and improved with addition of age (c-index, 0.66-0.74). For recovery, baseline National Early Warning Score and Modified Early Warning Score demonstrated somewhat better prognostic ability (c-index, 0.65-0.69); however, National Early Warning Score+age and Modified Early Warning Score+age further improved performance (c-index, 0.68-0.71). For deterioration, baseline National Early Warning Score and Modified Early Warning Score were weakly to moderately prognostic (c-index, 0.59-0.69) and improved with addition of age (c-index, 0.63-0.70). All prognostic performance improvements due to addition of age were significant (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS In the Adaptive COVID-19 Treatment Trial 1 cohort, National Early Warning Score and Modified Early Warning Score demonstrated moderate prognostic performance in patients with severe coronavirus disease 2019, with improvement in predictive ability for National Early Warning Score+age and Modified Early Warning Score+age. Area under receiver operating curve for National Early Warning Score and Modified Early Warning Score improved in patients receiving remdesivir versus placebo early in the pandemic for recovery and mortality. Although these scores are simple and readily obtainable in myriad settings, in our data set, they were insufficiently predictive to completely replace clinical judgment in coronavirus disease 2019 and may serve best as an adjunct to triage, disposition, and resourcing decisions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christopher J Colombo
- Madigan Army Medical Center, Tacoma, WA
- Infectious Disease Clinical Research Program, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, Bethesda, MD
| | - Rhonda E Colombo
- Madigan Army Medical Center, Tacoma, WA
- Infectious Disease Clinical Research Program, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, Bethesda, MD
- The Henry M. Jackson Foundation for the Advancement of Military Medicine, Bethesda, MD
| | - Ryan C Maves
- Infectious Disease Clinical Research Program, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, Bethesda, MD
- Naval Medical Center, San Diego, CA
| | | | | | | | - Sarah L George
- Saint Louis University and St. Louis VA Medical Center, Saint Louis, MO
| | - Hannah J Jang
- Department of Community Health Systems, School of Nursing and Center for Nursing Excellence and Innovation, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA
| | | | - David A Lindholm
- Infectious Disease Clinical Research Program, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, Bethesda, MD
- Brooke Army Medical Center, San Antonio, TX
| | - Richard A Mularski
- The Center for Health Research, Kaiser Permanente Northwest, Portland, OR
| | - Justin R Ortiz
- University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD
| | | | - C Jason Liang
- Biostatistics Research Branch, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Bethesda, MD
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Predict Score: A New Biological and Clinical Tool to Help Predict Risk of Intensive Care Transfer for COVID-19 Patients. Biomedicines 2021; 9:biomedicines9050566. [PMID: 34070021 PMCID: PMC8157884 DOI: 10.3390/biomedicines9050566] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/28/2021] [Revised: 04/27/2021] [Accepted: 04/29/2021] [Indexed: 12/26/2022] Open
Abstract
Background: The COVID-19 crisis has strained world health care systems. This study aimed to develop an innovative prediction score using clinical and biological parameters (PREDICT score) to anticipate the need of intensive care of COVID-19 patients already hospitalized in standard medical units. Methods: PREDICT score was based on a training cohort and a validation cohort retrospectively recruited in 2020 in the Marseille University Hospital. Multivariate analyses were performed, including clinical, and biological parameters, comparing a baseline group composed of COVID-19 patients exclusively treated in standard medical units to COVID-19 patients that needed intensive care during their hospitalization. Results: Independent variables included in the PREDICT score were: age, Body Mass Index, Respiratory Rate, oxygen saturation, C-reactive protein, neutrophil–lymphocyte ratio and lactate dehydrogenase. The PREDICT score was able to correctly identify more than 83% of patients that needed intensive care after at least 1 day of standard medical hospitalization. Conclusions: The PREDICT score is a powerful tool for anticipating the intensive care need for COVID-19 patients already hospitalized in a standard medical unit. It shows limitations for patients who immediately need intensive care, but it draws attention to patients who have an important risk of needing intensive care after at least one day of hospitalization.
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24
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Mar Minn M, Aung NM, Kyaw DZ, Zaw TT, Chann PN, Khine HE, McLoughlin S, Kelleher AD, Tun NL, Oo TZC, Myint NPST, Law M, Mar Kyi M, Hanson J. The comparative ability of commonly used disease severity scores to predict death or a requirement for ICU care in patients hospitalised with possible sepsis in Yangon, Myanmar. Int J Infect Dis 2021; 104:543-550. [PMID: 33493689 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2021.01.047] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/09/2020] [Revised: 01/17/2021] [Accepted: 01/19/2021] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To determine the comparative prognostic utility of commonly used disease prediction scores in adults with presumed community-acquired sepsis in a resource-limited tropical setting. METHODS This prospective, observational study was performed on the medical ward of a tertiary-referral hospital in Yangon, Myanmar. The ability of the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2), quick NEWS (qNEWS), quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score, Universal Vital Assessment (UVA) and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores to predict a complicated inpatient course (death or requirement for intensive care unit (ICU) support) in patients with two or more systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria was determined. RESULTS Among the 509 patients, 30 (6%) were HIV-seropositive. The most commonly confirmed diagnoses were tuberculosis (30/509, 5.9%) and measles (26/509, 5.1%). Overall, 75/509 (14.7%) died or required ICU support. All the scores except the qSOFA score, which was inferior, had a similar ability to predict a complicated inpatient course. CONCLUSIONS In this resource-limited tropical setting, disease severity scores calculated at presentation using only vital signs-such as the NEWS2 score-identified high-risk sepsis patient as well as the SOFA score, which is calculated at 24 h and which also requires laboratory data. Use of these simple clinical scores can be used to facilitate recognition of the high-risk patient and to optimise the use of finite resources.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mar Mar Minn
- Insein General Hospital, Insein Township, Yangon, Myanmar
| | - Ne Myo Aung
- Insein General Hospital, Insein Township, Yangon, Myanmar; University of Medicine 2, North Okkalapa Township, Yangon, Myanmar; Myanmar Australia Research Collaboration for Health (MARCH), Yangon, Myanmar
| | - De Zin Kyaw
- Myanmar Australia Research Collaboration for Health (MARCH), Yangon, Myanmar
| | - Thet Tun Zaw
- Myanmar Australia Research Collaboration for Health (MARCH), Yangon, Myanmar
| | - Pyae Nyein Chann
- Myanmar Australia Research Collaboration for Health (MARCH), Yangon, Myanmar
| | - Hnin Ei Khine
- Myanmar Australia Research Collaboration for Health (MARCH), Yangon, Myanmar
| | | | | | - Ne Lin Tun
- Insein General Hospital, Insein Township, Yangon, Myanmar; University of Medicine 2, North Okkalapa Township, Yangon, Myanmar; Myanmar Australia Research Collaboration for Health (MARCH), Yangon, Myanmar
| | - Thin Zar Cho Oo
- Insein General Hospital, Insein Township, Yangon, Myanmar; University of Medicine 2, North Okkalapa Township, Yangon, Myanmar; Myanmar Australia Research Collaboration for Health (MARCH), Yangon, Myanmar
| | - Nan Phyu Sin Toe Myint
- Insein General Hospital, Insein Township, Yangon, Myanmar; University of Medicine 2, North Okkalapa Township, Yangon, Myanmar; Myanmar Australia Research Collaboration for Health (MARCH), Yangon, Myanmar
| | - Matthew Law
- The Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
| | - Mar Mar Kyi
- Insein General Hospital, Insein Township, Yangon, Myanmar; University of Medicine 2, North Okkalapa Township, Yangon, Myanmar; Myanmar Australia Research Collaboration for Health (MARCH), Yangon, Myanmar
| | - Josh Hanson
- University of Medicine 2, North Okkalapa Township, Yangon, Myanmar; Myanmar Australia Research Collaboration for Health (MARCH), Yangon, Myanmar; The Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.
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25
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Egi M, Ogura H, Yatabe T, Atagi K, Inoue S, Iba T, Kakihana Y, Kawasaki T, Kushimoto S, Kuroda Y, Kotani J, Shime N, Taniguchi T, Tsuruta R, Doi K, Doi M, Nakada T, Nakane M, Fujishima S, Hosokawa N, Masuda Y, Matsushima A, Matsuda N, Yamakawa K, Hara Y, Sakuraya M, Ohshimo S, Aoki Y, Inada M, Umemura Y, Kawai Y, Kondo Y, Saito H, Taito S, Takeda C, Terayama T, Tohira H, Hashimoto H, Hayashida K, Hifumi T, Hirose T, Fukuda T, Fujii T, Miura S, Yasuda H, Abe T, Andoh K, Iida Y, Ishihara T, Ide K, Ito K, Ito Y, Inata Y, Utsunomiya A, Unoki T, Endo K, Ouchi A, Ozaki M, Ono S, Katsura M, Kawaguchi A, Kawamura Y, Kudo D, Kubo K, Kurahashi K, Sakuramoto H, Shimoyama A, Suzuki T, Sekine S, Sekino M, Takahashi N, Takahashi S, Takahashi H, Tagami T, Tajima G, Tatsumi H, Tani M, Tsuchiya A, Tsutsumi Y, Naito T, Nagae M, Nagasawa I, Nakamura K, Nishimura T, Nunomiya S, Norisue Y, Hashimoto S, Hasegawa D, Hatakeyama J, Hara N, Higashibeppu N, Furushima N, Furusono H, Matsuishi Y, Matsuyama T, Minematsu Y, Miyashita R, Miyatake Y, Moriyasu M, Yamada T, Yamada H, Yamamoto R, Yoshida T, Yoshida Y, Yoshimura J, Yotsumoto R, Yonekura H, Wada T, Watanabe E, Aoki M, Asai H, Abe T, Igarashi Y, Iguchi N, Ishikawa M, Ishimaru G, Isokawa S, Itakura R, Imahase H, Imura H, Irinoda T, Uehara K, Ushio N, Umegaki T, Egawa Y, Enomoto Y, Ota K, Ohchi Y, Ohno T, Ohbe H, Oka K, Okada N, Okada Y, Okano H, Okamoto J, Okuda H, Ogura T, Onodera Y, Oyama Y, Kainuma M, Kako E, Kashiura M, Kato H, Kanaya A, Kaneko T, Kanehata K, Kano K, Kawano H, Kikutani K, Kikuchi H, Kido T, Kimura S, Koami H, Kobashi D, Saiki I, Sakai M, Sakamoto A, Sato T, Shiga Y, Shimoto M, Shimoyama S, Shoko T, Sugawara Y, Sugita A, Suzuki S, Suzuki Y, Suhara T, Sonota K, Takauji S, Takashima K, Takahashi S, Takahashi Y, Takeshita J, Tanaka Y, Tampo A, Tsunoyama T, Tetsuhara K, Tokunaga K, Tomioka Y, Tomita K, Tominaga N, Toyosaki M, Toyoda Y, Naito H, Nagata I, Nagato T, Nakamura Y, Nakamori Y, Nahara I, Naraba H, Narita C, Nishioka N, Nishimura T, Nishiyama K, Nomura T, Haga T, Hagiwara Y, Hashimoto K, Hatachi T, Hamasaki T, Hayashi T, Hayashi M, Hayamizu A, Haraguchi G, Hirano Y, Fujii R, Fujita M, Fujimura N, Funakoshi H, Horiguchi M, Maki J, Masunaga N, Matsumura Y, Mayumi T, Minami K, Miyazaki Y, Miyamoto K, Murata T, Yanai M, Yano T, Yamada K, Yamada N, Yamamoto T, Yoshihiro S, Tanaka H, Nishida O. The Japanese Clinical Practice Guidelines for Management of Sepsis and Septic Shock 2020 (J-SSCG 2020). Acute Med Surg 2021; 8:e659. [PMID: 34484801 PMCID: PMC8390911 DOI: 10.1002/ams2.659] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/16/2022] Open
Abstract
The Japanese Clinical Practice Guidelines for Management of Sepsis and Septic Shock 2020 (J-SSCG 2020), a Japanese-specific set of clinical practice guidelines for sepsis and septic shock created as revised from J-SSCG 2016 jointly by the Japanese Society of Intensive Care Medicine and the Japanese Association for Acute Medicine, was first released in September 2020 and published in February 2021. An English-language version of these guidelines was created based on the contents of the original Japanese-language version. The purpose of this guideline is to assist medical staff in making appropriate decisions to improve the prognosis of patients undergoing treatment for sepsis and septic shock. We aimed to provide high-quality guidelines that are easy to use and understand for specialists, general clinicians, and multidisciplinary medical professionals. J-SSCG 2016 took up new subjects that were not present in SSCG 2016 (e.g., ICU-acquired weakness [ICU-AW], post-intensive care syndrome [PICS], and body temperature management). The J-SSCG 2020 covered a total of 22 areas with four additional new areas (patient- and family-centered care, sepsis treatment system, neuro-intensive treatment, and stress ulcers). A total of 118 important clinical issues (clinical questions, CQs) were extracted regardless of the presence or absence of evidence. These CQs also include those that have been given particular focus within Japan. This is a large-scale guideline covering multiple fields; thus, in addition to the 25 committee members, we had the participation and support of a total of 226 members who are professionals (physicians, nurses, physiotherapists, clinical engineers, and pharmacists) and medical workers with a history of sepsis or critical illness. The GRADE method was adopted for making recommendations, and the modified Delphi method was used to determine recommendations by voting from all committee members. As a result, 79 GRADE-based recommendations, 5 Good Practice Statements (GPS), 18 expert consensuses, 27 answers to background questions (BQs), and summaries of definitions and diagnosis of sepsis were created as responses to 118 CQs. We also incorporated visual information for each CQ according to the time course of treatment, and we will also distribute this as an app. The J-SSCG 2020 is expected to be widely used as a useful bedside guideline in the field of sepsis treatment both in Japan and overseas involving multiple disciplines.
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Gao J, Wu X, Luo X, Guan S. Scientometric Analysis of Safety Sign Research: 1990-2019. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2021; 18:ijerph18010273. [PMID: 33401394 PMCID: PMC7796167 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph18010273] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/19/2020] [Revised: 12/05/2020] [Accepted: 12/07/2020] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to summarize the research themes and hotspots of safety signs research between 1990 and 2019 through the scientometric analysis method. In total, 3102 articles of literature from the Web of Science core database were analyzed by the CiteSpace visualization tool and the results were displayed in mapping knowledge domains. The overall characteristics analysis showed that safety sign is an emerging research field in a rapid development stage—81.4% of the literature works were published in the past ten years, and the United States was in the leading position, followed by China and Canada. The keyword co-occurrence analysis indicated that traffic signs and driving safety were the most popular research topics and have been combined with simulation technology in recent years, whereby individual mental health has been added as an influential factor. The journals and category co-citation analysis showed that the safety signs research involved many subjects, mainly engineering, transportation and public safety. The results indicated that the safety signs research is multi-disciplinary, and it will continue to develop in various scientific domains in the future. The conclusions can provide help and reference for potential readers, as well as help with the sustainable development of safety signs research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jingqi Gao
- Department of Safety Science and Engineering, School of Engineering and Technology, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China
| | - Xiang Wu
- Department of Safety Science and Engineering, School of Engineering and Technology, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China
| | - Xiaowei Luo
- College of Engineering, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Shukai Guan
- School of Reliability and System Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China
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Emani VR, Goswami S, Nandanoor D, Emani SR, Reddy NK, Reddy R. Randomised controlled trials for COVID-19: evaluation of optimal randomisation methodologies-need for data validation of the completed trials and to improve ongoing and future randomised trial designs. Int J Antimicrob Agents 2021; 57:106222. [PMID: 33189891 PMCID: PMC7659806 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijantimicag.2020.106222] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/03/2020] [Revised: 10/19/2020] [Accepted: 11/01/2020] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Abstract
During the emerging COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) pandemic, initially there were no proven treatment options. With the release of randomised controlled trial (RCT) results, we are beginning to see possible treatment options for COVID-19. The RECOVERY trial showed an absolute risk reduction in mortality by 2.8% with dexamethasone, and the ACTT-1 trial showed that treatment with remdesivir reduced the time to recovery by 4 days. Treatment with hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) and lopinavir/ritonavir did not show any mortality benefit in either the RECOVERY or World Health Organization (WHO) Solidarity trials. The National Institutes of Health (NIH) and Brazilian HCQ trials did not show any benefit for HCQ based on the seven-point ordinal scale outcomes. The randomisation methodologies utilised in these controlled trials and the quality of published data were reviewed to examine their adaptability to treat patients. We found that the randomisation methodologies of these trials were suboptimal for matching the studied groups based on disease severity among critically-ill hospitalised COVID-19 patients with high mortality rates. The published literature is very limited regarding the disease severity metrics among the compared groups and failed to show that the data are without fatal sampling errors and sampling biases. We also found that there is a definite need for the validation of data in these trials along with additional important disease severity metrics to ensure that the trials' conclusions are accurate. We also propose proper randomisation methodologies for the design of RCTs for COVID-19 as well as guidance for the publication of COVID-19 trial results.
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Affiliation(s)
- Venkata R Emani
- Central Valley Cardiovascular Associates, Inc., 1148 Norman Drive, Suite #2, Manteca, CA 95336, USA.
| | - Sanjeev Goswami
- San Joaquin Critical Care Medical Group, 1801 E March Ln c300, Stockton, CA 95210, USA
| | | | - Shaila R Emani
- Central Valley Cardiovascular Associates, Inc., 1148 Norman Drive, Suite #2, Manteca, CA 95336, USA
| | - Nidhi K Reddy
- Stockton Primary Care, 805 N California St #102, Stockton, CA 95204, USA
| | - Raghunath Reddy
- Stockton Primary Care, 805 N California St #102, Stockton, CA 95204, USA
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Persistently elevated early warning scores and lactate identifies patients at high risk of mortality in suspected sepsis. Eur J Emerg Med 2020; 27:125-131. [PMID: 31464702 DOI: 10.1097/mej.0000000000000630] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/25/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE In the UK, the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) is recommended as part of screening for suspicion of sepsis. Is a change in NEWS a better predictor of mortality than an isolated score when screening for suspicion of sepsis?. METHODS A prospectively gathered cohort of 1233 adults brought in by ambulance to two UK nonspecialist hospitals, with suspicion of sepsis at emergency department (ED) triage (2015-2017) was analysed. Associations with 30-day mortality and ICU admission rate were compared between groups with an isolated NEWS ≥5 points prehospital and those with persistently elevated NEWS prehospital, in ED and at ward admission. The effect of adding the ED (venous or arterial) lactate was also assessed. RESULTS Mortality increased if the NEWS persisted ≥5 at ED arrival 22.1% vs. 10.2% [odds ratio (OR) 2.5 (1.6-4.0); P < 0.001]. Adding an ED lactate ≥2 mmol/L was associated with an increase in mortality greater than for NEWS alone [32.2% vs. 13.3%, OR 3.1 (2.2-4.1); P < 0.001], and increased ICU admission [13.9% vs. 3.7%, OR 3.1 (2.2-4.3); P < 0.001]. If NEWS remained ≥5 at ward admission (predominantly within 4 h of ED arrival), mortality was 32.1% vs. 14.3%, [OR 2.8 (2.1-3.9); P < 0.001] and still higher if accompanied by an elevated ED lactate [42.1% vs. 16.4%, OR 3.7 (2.6-5.3); P < 0.001]. CONCLUSION Persistently elevated NEWS, from prehospital through the ED to the time of ward admission, combined with an elevated ED lactate identifies patients with suspicion of sepsis at highest risk of in-hospital mortality.
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Kostakis I, Smith GB, Prytherch D, Meredith P, Price C, Chauhan A. The performance of the National Early Warning Score and National Early Warning Score 2 in hospitalised patients infected by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Resuscitation 2020; 159:150-157. [PMID: 33176170 PMCID: PMC7648887 DOI: 10.1016/j.resuscitation.2020.10.039] [Citation(s) in RCA: 71] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/12/2020] [Revised: 10/12/2020] [Accepted: 10/23/2020] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Since the introduction of the UK's National Early Warning Score (NEWS) and its modification, NEWS2, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), has caused a worldwide pandemic. NEWS and NEWS2 have good predictive abilities in patients with other infections and sepsis, however there is little evidence of their performance in COVID-19. METHODS Using receiver-operating characteristics analyses, we used the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve to evaluate the performance of NEWS or NEWS2 to discriminate the combined outcome of either death or intensive care unit (ICU) admission within 24 h of a vital sign set in five cohorts (COVID-19 POSITIVE, n = 405; COVID-19 NOT DETECTED, n = 1716; COVID-19 NOT TESTED, n = 2686; CONTROL 2018, n = 6273; CONTROL 2019, n = 6523). RESULTS The AUROC values for NEWS or NEWS2 for the combined outcome were: COVID-19 POSITIVE, 0.882 (0.868-0.895); COVID-19 NOT DETECTED, 0.875 (0.861-0.89); COVID-19 NOT TESTED, 0.876 (0.85-0.902); CONTROL 2018, 0.894 (0.884-0.904); CONTROL 2019, 0.842 (0.829-0.855). CONCLUSIONS The finding that NEWS or NEWS2 performance was good and similar in all five cohorts (range = 0.842-0.894) suggests that amendments to NEWS or NEWS2, such as the addition of new covariates or the need to change the weighting of existing parameters, are unnecessary when evaluating patients with COVID-19. Our results support the national and international recommendations for the use of NEWS or NEWS2 for the assessment of acute-illness severity in patients with COVID-19.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ina Kostakis
- Centre for Healthcare Modelling & Informatics, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth, UK
| | - Gary B Smith
- Centre of Postgraduate Medical Research & Education (CoPMRE), Faculty of Health and Social Sciences, Bournemouth University, Bournemouth, BH1 3LT, UK.
| | - David Prytherch
- Centre for Healthcare Modelling & Informatics, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth, UK
| | - Paul Meredith
- Research & Innovation Department, Portsmouth Hospitals University NHS Trust, Portsmouth, UK
| | - Connor Price
- Centre for Healthcare Modelling & Informatics, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth, UK
| | - Anoop Chauhan
- Portsmouth Technologies Trials Unit, Portsmouth Hospitals University NHS Trust, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth, UK
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Lalueza A, Lora-Tamayo J, de la Calle C, Sayas-Catalán J, Arrieta E, Maestro G, Mancheño-Losa M, Marchán-López Á, Díaz-Simón R, García-García R, Catalán M, García-Reyne A, de Miguel-Campo B, Lumbreras C. [The early use of sepsis scores to predict respiratory failure and mortality in non-ICU patients with COVID-19]. Rev Clin Esp 2020; 222:293-298. [PMID: 33191944 PMCID: PMC7648653 DOI: 10.1016/j.rce.2020.10.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/02/2020] [Accepted: 10/01/2020] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
El presente estudio retrospectivo observacional tiene como objetivo analizar la utilidad de las escalas SOFA (Sequential Organ Failure Assessment), qSOFA (Quick SOFA), NEWS (National Early Warning Score ) y Quick NEWS para predecir el fallo respiratorio y la muerte en pacientes con COVID-19 atendidos fuera de la Unidad de Cuidados Intensivos (UCI). Se incluyeron 237 adultos con COVID-19 hospitalizados seguidos durante un mes o hasta su fallecimiento. El fallo respiratorio se definió como un cociente PaO2/FiO2 ≤ 200 mmHg o la necesidad de ventilación mecánica. Setenta y siete pacientes (32,5%) desarrollaron fallo ventilatorio; 29 (12%) precisaron ingreso en UCI, y 49 fallecieron (20,7%). La discriminación del fallo ventilatorio fue algo mayor con la puntuación NEWS, seguida de la SOFA. En cuanto a la mortalidad, la puntuación SOFA fue más exacta que las otras escalas. En conclusión, las escalas de sepsis son útiles para predecir el fallo respiratorio y la muerte en COVID-19. Una puntuación ≥ 4 en la escala NEWS sería el mejor punto de corte para predecir fallo respiratorio.
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Affiliation(s)
- A Lalueza
- Servicio de Medicina Interna, Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre, Madrid, España.,Departamento de Medicina, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, España.,Instituto de investigación del Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre (i+12), Madrid, España
| | - J Lora-Tamayo
- Servicio de Medicina Interna, Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre, Madrid, España.,Departamento de Medicina, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, España.,Instituto de investigación del Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre (i+12), Madrid, España
| | - C de la Calle
- Servicio de Medicina Interna, Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre, Madrid, España
| | - J Sayas-Catalán
- Instituto de investigación del Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre (i+12), Madrid, España.,Servicio de Medicina Respiratoria, Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre, Madrid, España
| | - E Arrieta
- Servicio de Medicina Interna, Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre, Madrid, España
| | - G Maestro
- Servicio de Medicina Interna, Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre, Madrid, España
| | - M Mancheño-Losa
- Servicio de Medicina Interna, Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre, Madrid, España.,Instituto de investigación del Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre (i+12), Madrid, España
| | - Á Marchán-López
- Servicio de Medicina Interna, Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre, Madrid, España
| | - R Díaz-Simón
- Servicio de Medicina Interna, Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre, Madrid, España.,Departamento de Medicina, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, España
| | - R García-García
- Servicio de Medicina Respiratoria, Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre, Madrid, España
| | - M Catalán
- Unidad de Cuidados Intensivos, Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre, Madrid, España
| | - A García-Reyne
- Servicio de Medicina Interna, Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre, Madrid, España
| | - B de Miguel-Campo
- Servicio de Medicina Interna, Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre, Madrid, España
| | - C Lumbreras
- Servicio de Medicina Interna, Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre, Madrid, España.,Departamento de Medicina, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, España.,Instituto de investigación del Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre (i+12), Madrid, España.,Unidad de Enfermedades Infecciosas, Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre, Madrid, España
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Graham CA, Leung LY, Lo RSL, Yeung CY, Chan SY, Hung KKC. NEWS and qSIRS superior to qSOFA in the prediction of 30-day mortality in emergency department patients in Hong Kong. Ann Med 2020; 52:403-412. [PMID: 32530356 PMCID: PMC7877938 DOI: 10.1080/07853890.2020.1782462] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/20/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND We aim to compare the prognostic value of Quick Sepsis-Related Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) and the previous Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) criteria, the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) and along with their combinations in the emergency department (ED). METHODS This single-centre prospective study recruited a convenience sample of unselected ED patients triaged as category 2 (Emergency) and 3 (Urgent). Receiver Operating Characteristic analyses were performed to determine the Area Under the Curve (AUC), along with sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, positive and negative likelihood ratios for the various scores. RESULTS Of 1253 patients recruited, overall 30-day mortality was 5.7%. The prognostic value for prediction of 30-day mortality, with AUCs for qSOFA ≥2, SIRS ≥2, NEWS ≥5, qSIRS (qSOFA + SIRS) ≥2 and NSIRS (NEWS + SIRS) ≥5 of 0.56 (95%CI 0.53-0.58), 0.61 (95%CI 0.58-0.64), 0.61 (95%CI 0.58-0.64), 0.64 (95%CI 0.62-0.67) and 0.61 (95%CI 0.58-0.63), respectively. Using pairwise comparisons of ROC curves, NEWS ≥5 and qSIRS ≥2 were better than qSOFA ≥2 at predicting 30-day mortality. CONCLUSIONS Among unselected emergency and urgent ED patients, the prognostic value for NEWS and qSIRS were greater than qSOFA, Combinations of qSOFA and SIRS could improve the predictive value for 30-day mortality for ED patients. Key messages NEWS ≥5 and qSIRS ≥2 were better than qSOFA ≥2 at predicting 30-day mortality in ED patients. Combinations of qSOFA and SIRS could improve the predictive value for 30-day mortality for ED patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Colin A Graham
- Accident and Emergency Medicine Academic Unit, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
| | - Ling Yan Leung
- Accident and Emergency Medicine Academic Unit, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
| | - Ronson Sze Long Lo
- Accident and Emergency Medicine Academic Unit, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
| | - Chun Yu Yeung
- Accident and Emergency Medicine Academic Unit, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
| | - Suet Yi Chan
- Accident and Emergency Medicine Academic Unit, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
| | - Kevin Kei Ching Hung
- Accident and Emergency Medicine Academic Unit, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
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Covino M, Sandroni C, Santoro M, Sabia L, Simeoni B, Bocci MG, Ojetti V, Candelli M, Antonelli M, Gasbarrini A, Franceschi F. Predicting intensive care unit admission and death for COVID-19 patients in the emergency department using early warning scores. Resuscitation 2020; 156:84-91. [PMID: 32918985 PMCID: PMC7480278 DOI: 10.1016/j.resuscitation.2020.08.124] [Citation(s) in RCA: 73] [Impact Index Per Article: 18.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/26/2020] [Revised: 08/13/2020] [Accepted: 08/26/2020] [Indexed: 02/08/2023]
Abstract
AIMS To identify the most accurate early warning score (EWS) for predicting an adverse outcome in COVID-19 patients admitted to the emergency department (ED). METHODS In adult consecutive patients admitted (March 1-April 15, 2020) to the ED of a major referral centre for COVID-19, we retrospectively calculated NEWS, NEWS2, NEWS-C, MEWS, qSOFA, and REMS from physiological variables measured on arrival. Sensitivity, specificity, positive (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV), and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve of each EWS for predicting admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) and death at 48 h and 7 days were calculated. RESULTS We included 334 patients (119 [35.6%] females, median age 66 [54-78] years). At 7 days, the rates of ICU admission and death were 56/334 (17%) and 26/334 (7.8%), respectively. NEWS was the most accurate predictor of ICU admission within 7 days (AUROC 0.783 [95% CI, 0.735-0.826]; sensitivity 71.4 [57.8-82.7]%; NPV 93.1 [89.8-95.3]%), while REMS was the most accurate predictor of death within 7 days (AUROC 0.823 [0.778-0.863]; sensitivity 96.1 [80.4-99.9]%; NPV 99.4[96.2-99.9]%). Similar results were observed for ICU admission and death at 48 h. NEWS and REMS were as accurate as the triage system used in our ED. MEWS and qSOFA had the lowest overall accuracy for both outcomes. CONCLUSION In our single-centre cohort of COVID-19 patients, NEWS and REMS measured on ED arrival were the most sensitive predictors of 7-day ICU admission or death. EWS could be useful to identify patients with low risk of clinical deterioration.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marcello Covino
- Emergency Department, Fondazione Policlinico Universitario A. Gemelli, IRCCS, Rome, Italy
| | - Claudio Sandroni
- Department of Intensive Care, Emergency Medicine and Anaesthesiology, Fondazione Policlinico Universitario A. Gemelli-IRCCS, Rome, Italy; Institute of Anaesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Rome, Italy.
| | - Michele Santoro
- Emergency Department, Fondazione Policlinico Universitario A. Gemelli, IRCCS, Rome, Italy
| | - Luca Sabia
- Emergency Department, Fondazione Policlinico Universitario A. Gemelli, IRCCS, Rome, Italy
| | - Benedetta Simeoni
- Emergency Department, Fondazione Policlinico Universitario A. Gemelli, IRCCS, Rome, Italy
| | - Maria Grazia Bocci
- Department of Intensive Care, Emergency Medicine and Anaesthesiology, Fondazione Policlinico Universitario A. Gemelli-IRCCS, Rome, Italy
| | - Veronica Ojetti
- Emergency Department, Fondazione Policlinico Universitario A. Gemelli, IRCCS, Rome, Italy; Department of Internal Medicine and Gastroenterology, Fondazione Policlinico Universitario A. Gemelli, IRCCS, Rome, Italy
| | - Marcello Candelli
- Emergency Department, Fondazione Policlinico Universitario A. Gemelli, IRCCS, Rome, Italy
| | - Massimo Antonelli
- Department of Intensive Care, Emergency Medicine and Anaesthesiology, Fondazione Policlinico Universitario A. Gemelli-IRCCS, Rome, Italy; Department of Internal Medicine and Gastroenterology, Fondazione Policlinico Universitario A. Gemelli, IRCCS, Rome, Italy
| | - Antonio Gasbarrini
- Department of Internal Medicine and Gastroenterology, Fondazione Policlinico Universitario A. Gemelli, IRCCS, Rome, Italy; Institute of Internal Medicine and Gastroenterology, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Rome, Italy
| | - Francesco Franceschi
- Emergency Department, Fondazione Policlinico Universitario A. Gemelli, IRCCS, Rome, Italy; Institute of Emergency Medicine, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Rome, Italy
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Evaluation of the Risk Prediction Tools for Patients With Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Wuhan, China: A Single-Centered, Retrospective, Observational Study. Crit Care Med 2020; 48:e1004-e1011. [PMID: 32897668 PMCID: PMC7448719 DOI: 10.1097/ccm.0000000000004549] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/08/2023]
Abstract
Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text. Objectives: To evaluate and compare the efficacy of National Early Warning Score, National Early Warning Score 2, Rapid Emergency Medicine Score, Confusion, Respiratory rate, Blood pressure, Age 65 score, and quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment on predicting in-hospital death in patients with coronavirus disease 2019. Design: A retrospective, observational study. Setting: Single center, West Campus of Wuhan Union hospital-a temporary center to manage critically ill patients with coronavirus disease 2019. Patients: A total of 673 consecutive adult patients with coronavirus disease 2019 between January 30, 2020, and March 14, 2020. Interventions: None. Measurements and Main Results: Data on demography, comorbidities, vital signs, mental status, oxygen saturation, and use of supplemental oxygen at admission to the ward were collected from medical records and used to score National Early Warning Score, National Early Warning Score 2, Rapid Emergency Medicine Score, Confusion, Respiratory rate, Blood pressure, Age 65 score, and quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment. Total number of patients was 673 (51% male) and median (interquartile range) age was 61 years (50–69 yr). One-hundred twenty-one patients died (18%). For predicting in-hospital death, the area under the receiver operating characteristics (95% CI) for National Early Warning Score, National Early Warning Score 2, Rapid Emergency Medicine Score, Confusion, Respiratory rate, Blood pressure, Age 65 score, and quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment were 0.882 (0.847–0.916), 0.880 (0.845–0.914), 0.839 (0.800–0.879), 0.766 (0.718–0.814), and 0.694 (0.641–0.746), respectively. Among the parameters of National Early Warning Score, the oxygen saturation score was found to be the most significant predictor of in-hospital death. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (95% CI) for oxygen saturation score was 0.875 (0.834–0.916). Conclusions: In this single-center study, the discrimination of National Early Warning Score/National Early Warning Score 2 for predicting mortality in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 admitted to the ward was found to be superior to Rapid Emergency Medicine Score, Confusion, Respiratory rate, Blood pressure, Age 65 score, and quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment. Peripheral oxygen saturation could independently predict in-hospital death in these patients. Further validation of our finding in multiple settings is needed to determine its applicability for coronavirus disease 2019.
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Zhou HJ, Lan TF, Guo SB. Outcome prediction value of National Early Warning Score in septic patients with community-acquired pneumonia in emergency department: A single-center retrospective cohort study. World J Emerg Med 2020; 11:206-215. [PMID: 33014216 DOI: 10.5847/wjem.j.1920-8642.2020.04.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND To evaluate the accuracy of National Early Warning Score (NEWS) in predicting clinical outcomes (28-day mortality, intensive care unit [ICU] admission, and mechanical ventilation use) for septic patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) compared with other commonly used severity scores (CURB65, Pneumonia Severity Index [PSI], Sequential Organ Failure Assessment [SOFA], quick SOFA [qSOFA], and Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis [MEDS]) and admission lactate level. METHODS Adult patients diagnosed with CAP admitted between January 2017 and May 2019 with admission SOFA ≥2 from baseline were enrolled. Demographic characteristics were collected. The primary outcome was the 28-day mortality after admission, and the secondary outcome included ICU admission and mechanical ventilation use. Outcome prediction value of parameters above was compared using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves. Cox regression analyses were carried out to determine the risk factors for the 28-day mortality. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were plotted and compared using optimal cut-off values of qSOFA and NEWS. RESULTS Among the 340 enrolled patients, 90 patients were dead after a 28-day follow-up, 62 patients were admitted to ICU, and 84 patients underwent mechanical ventilation. Among single predictors, NEWS achieved the largest area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve in predicting the 28-day mortality (0.861), ICU admission (0.895), and use of mechanical ventilation (0.873). NEWS+lactate, similar to MEDS+lactate, outperformed other combinations of severity score and admission lactate in predicting the 28-day mortality (AUROC 0.866) and ICU admission (AUROC 0.905), while NEWS+lactate did not outperform other combinations in predicting mechanical ventilation (AUROC 0.886). Admission lactate only improved the predicting performance of CURB65 and qSOFA in predicting the 28-day mortality and ICU admission. CONCLUSIONS NEWS could be a valuable predictor in septic patients with CAP in emergency departments. Admission lactate did not predict well the outcomes or improve the severity scores. A qSOFA ≥2 and a NEWS ≥9 were strongly associated with the 28-day mortality, ICU admission, and mechanical ventilation of septic patients with CAP in the emergency departments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hai-Jiang Zhou
- Emergency Medicine Clinical Research Center, Beijing Chao-yang Hospital, Capital Medical University & Beijing Key Laboratory of Cardiopulmonary Cerebral Resuscitation, Beijing, China
| | - Tian-Fei Lan
- Department of Allergy, Beijing Shijitan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Shu-Bin Guo
- Emergency Medicine Clinical Research Center, Beijing Chao-yang Hospital, Capital Medical University & Beijing Key Laboratory of Cardiopulmonary Cerebral Resuscitation, Beijing, China
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Hwang JI, Chin HJ. Relationships between the National Early Warning Score 2, clinical worry and patient outcome at discharge: Retrospective observational study. J Clin Nurs 2020; 29:3774-3789. [PMID: 32644226 DOI: 10.1111/jocn.15408] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/20/2020] [Revised: 06/19/2020] [Accepted: 06/27/2020] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Abstract
AIMS AND OBJECTIVES To examine the performance of the National Early Warning Score 2 and composite score for clinical worry in identifying patients at risk of clinical deterioration, and to determine relationships between National Early Warning Score 2, clinical worry score and patient outcome at discharge. BACKGROUND The efficacy of early warning systems depends on patient population and care settings. Based on a theoretical framework on factors affecting clinical deterioration and patient outcomes, studies exploring the relationship between early warning systems and patient outcomes at discharge are sparse. DESIGN Retrospective observational study. METHODS A random sample of 732 medical records were reviewed. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was calculated to evaluate predictive abilities regarding the events of unanticipated in-hospital mortality, unplanned intensive care unit/ higher dependency bed admission and cardiac arrest. Multiple logistic regression analyses were performed to determine relationships between National Early Warning Score 2, clinical worry score and patient outcome. Reporting followed the STROBE checklist. RESULTS National Early Warning Score 2 and clinical worry score significantly predicted the events within 24 hr of the assessment. After controlling for other patient, treatment and organisational characteristics, National Early Warning Score 2 was a significant factor associated with patient outcome, but clinical worry score was not. Specifically, patients at high risk based on National Early Warning Score 2 were less likely to have improved outcome. CONCLUSIONS National Early Warning Score 2 and clinical worry score performed well for predicting deteriorating condition of patients. National Early Warning Score 2 was significantly associated with patient outcome. It can be used for efficient patient management for safe, quality care. RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE National Early Warning Score 2 can be used for early assessment of not only clinical deterioration but also patient outcome and provide timely intervention, when coupled with clinical worry score.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jee-In Hwang
- College of Nursing Science, Kyung Hee University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Ho Jun Chin
- Seoul National University College of Medicine and Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seongnam-Si, South Korea
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Liu J, Liu S. The management of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). J Med Virol 2020; 92:1484-1490. [PMID: 32369222 PMCID: PMC7267323 DOI: 10.1002/jmv.25965] [Citation(s) in RCA: 50] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/30/2020] [Revised: 04/28/2020] [Accepted: 05/01/2020] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
In December 2019, a novel coronavirus causing severe acute respiratory disease occurred in Wuhan, China. It is an emerging infectious disease with widespread and rapid infectiousness. The World Health Organization declared the coronavirus outbreak to be a public health emergency of international concern on 31 January 2020. Severe COVID-19 patients should be managed and treated in a critical care unit. Performing a chest X-ray/CT can judge the severity of the disease. The management of COVID-19 patients includes epidemiological risk and patient isolation; treatment entails general supportive care, respiratory support, symptomatic treatment, nutritional support, psychological intervention, etc. The prognosis of the patients depends upon the severity of the disease, the patient's age, the underlying diseases of the patients, and the patient's overall medical condition. The management of COVID-19 should focus on early diagnosis, immediate isolation, general and optimized supportive care, and infection prevention and control.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jialin Liu
- Department of Otolaryngology, West China HospitalSichuan UniversitySichuanChina
- Department of Medical InformaticsWest China Medical SchoolSichuanChina
| | - Siru Liu
- Department of Biomedical InformaticsUniversity of UtahSalt LakeUtah
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Gerry S, Bonnici T, Birks J, Kirtley S, Virdee PS, Watkinson PJ, Collins GS. Early warning scores for detecting deterioration in adult hospital patients: systematic review and critical appraisal of methodology. BMJ 2020; 369:m1501. [PMID: 32434791 PMCID: PMC7238890 DOI: 10.1136/bmj.m1501] [Citation(s) in RCA: 125] [Impact Index Per Article: 31.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 03/25/2020] [Indexed: 12/30/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To provide an overview and critical appraisal of early warning scores for adult hospital patients. DESIGN Systematic review. DATA SOURCES Medline, CINAHL, PsycInfo, and Embase until June 2019. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR STUDY SELECTION Studies describing the development or external validation of an early warning score for adult hospital inpatients. RESULTS 13 171 references were screened and 95 articles were included in the review. 11 studies were development only, 23 were development and external validation, and 61 were external validation only. Most early warning scores were developed for use in the United States (n=13/34, 38%) and the United Kingdom (n=10/34, 29%). Death was the most frequent prediction outcome for development studies (n=10/23, 44%) and validation studies (n=66/84, 79%), with different time horizons (the most frequent was 24 hours). The most common predictors were respiratory rate (n=30/34, 88%), heart rate (n=28/34, 83%), oxygen saturation, temperature, and systolic blood pressure (all n=24/34, 71%). Age (n=13/34, 38%) and sex (n=3/34, 9%) were less frequently included. Key details of the analysis populations were often not reported in development studies (n=12/29, 41%) or validation studies (n=33/84, 39%). Small sample sizes and insufficient numbers of event patients were common in model development and external validation studies. Missing data were often discarded, with just one study using multiple imputation. Only nine of the early warning scores that were developed were presented in sufficient detail to allow individualised risk prediction. Internal validation was carried out in 19 studies, but recommended approaches such as bootstrapping or cross validation were rarely used (n=4/19, 22%). Model performance was frequently assessed using discrimination (development n=18/22, 82%; validation n=69/84, 82%), while calibration was seldom assessed (validation n=13/84, 15%). All included studies were rated at high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS Early warning scores are widely used prediction models that are often mandated in daily clinical practice to identify early clinical deterioration in hospital patients. However, many early warning scores in clinical use were found to have methodological weaknesses. Early warning scores might not perform as well as expected and therefore they could have a detrimental effect on patient care. Future work should focus on following recommended approaches for developing and evaluating early warning scores, and investigating the impact and safety of using these scores in clinical practice. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION PROSPERO CRD42017053324.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stephen Gerry
- Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford OX3 7LD, UK
| | - Timothy Bonnici
- Critical Care Division, University College London Hospitals NHS Trust, London, UK
| | - Jacqueline Birks
- Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford OX3 7LD, UK
- Oxford University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Oxford, UK
| | - Shona Kirtley
- Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford OX3 7LD, UK
| | - Pradeep S Virdee
- Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford OX3 7LD, UK
| | - Peter J Watkinson
- Nuffield Department of Clinical Neurosciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Gary S Collins
- Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford OX3 7LD, UK
- Oxford University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Oxford, UK
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Clinical Examination for the Prediction of Mortality in the Critically Ill: The Simple Intensive Care Studies-I. Crit Care Med 2020; 47:1301-1309. [PMID: 31356472 PMCID: PMC6750157 DOI: 10.1097/ccm.0000000000003897] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/16/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Caregivers use clinical examination to timely recognize deterioration of a patient, yet data on the prognostic value of clinical examination are inconsistent. In the Simple Intensive Care Studies-I, we evaluated the association of clinical examination findings with 90-day mortality in critically ill patients. DESIGN Prospective single-center cohort study. SETTING ICU of a single tertiary care level hospital between March 27, 2015, and July 22, 2017. PATIENTS All consecutive adults acutely admitted to the ICU and expected to stay for at least 24 hours. INTERVENTIONS A protocolized clinical examination of 19 clinical signs conducted within 24 hours of admission. MEASUREMENTS MAIN RESULTS Independent predictors of 90-day mortality were identified using multivariable logistic regression analyses. Model performance was compared with established prognostic risk scores using area under the receiver operating characteristic curves. Robustness of our findings was tested by internal bootstrap validation and adjustment of the threshold for statistical significance. A total of 1,075 patients were included, of whom 298 patients (28%) had died at 90-day follow-up. Multivariable analyses adjusted for age and norepinephrine infusion rate demonstrated that the combination of higher respiratory rate, higher systolic blood pressure, lower central temperature, altered consciousness, and decreased urine output was independently associated with 90-day mortality (area under the receiver operating characteristic curves = 0.74; 95% CI, 0.71-0.78). Clinical examination had a similar discriminative value as compared with the Simplified Acute Physiology Score-II (area under the receiver operating characteristic curves = 0.76; 95% CI, 0.73-0.79; p = 0.29) and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation-IV (using area under the receiver operating characteristic curves = 0.77; 95% CI, 0.74-0.80; p = 0.16) and was significantly better than the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (using area under the receiver operating characteristic curves = 0.67; 95% CI, 0.64-0.71; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS Clinical examination has reasonable discriminative value for assessing 90-day mortality in acutely admitted ICU patients. In our study population, a single, protocolized clinical examination had similar prognostic abilities compared with the Simplified Acute Physiology Score-II and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation-IV and outperformed the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score.
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Liu VX, Lu Y, Carey KA, Gilbert ER, Afshar M, Akel M, Shah NS, Dolan J, Winslow C, Kipnis P, Edelson DP, Escobar GJ, Churpek MM. Comparison of Early Warning Scoring Systems for Hospitalized Patients With and Without Infection at Risk for In-Hospital Mortality and Transfer to the Intensive Care Unit. JAMA Netw Open 2020; 3:e205191. [PMID: 32427324 PMCID: PMC7237982 DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.5191] [Citation(s) in RCA: 71] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Abstract
IMPORTANCE Risk scores used in early warning systems exist for general inpatients and patients with suspected infection outside the intensive care unit (ICU), but their relative performance is incompletely characterized. OBJECTIVE To compare the performance of tools used to determine points-based risk scores among all hospitalized patients, including those with and without suspected infection, for identifying those at risk for death and/or ICU transfer. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS In a cohort design, a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data was conducted in 21 California and 7 Illinois hospitals between 2006 and 2018 among adult inpatients outside the ICU using points-based scores from 5 commonly used tools: National Early Warning Score (NEWS), Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), Between the Flags (BTF), Quick Sequential Sepsis-Related Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA), and Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS). Data analysis was conducted from February 2019 to January 2020. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Risk model discrimination was assessed in each state for predicting in-hospital mortality and the combined outcome of ICU transfer or mortality with area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs). Stratified analyses were also conducted based on suspected infection. RESULTS The study included 773 477 hospitalized patients in California (mean [SD] age, 65.1 [17.6] years; 416 605 women [53.9%]) and 713 786 hospitalized patients in Illinois (mean [SD] age, 61.3 [19.9] years; 384 830 women [53.9%]). The NEWS exhibited the highest discrimination for mortality (AUC, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.87-0.87 in California vs AUC, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.85-0.86 in Illinois), followed by the MEWS (AUC, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.83-0.84 in California vs AUC, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.84-0.85 in Illinois), qSOFA (AUC, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.78-0.79 in California vs AUC, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.77-0.78 in Illinois), SIRS (AUC, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.76-0.76 in California vs AUC, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.75-0.76 in Illinois), and BTF (AUC, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.73-0.73 in California vs AUC, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.73-0.74 in Illinois). At specific decision thresholds, the NEWS outperformed the SIRS and qSOFA at all 28 hospitals either by reducing the percentage of at-risk patients who need to be screened by 5% to 20% or increasing the percentage of adverse outcomes identified by 3% to 25%. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In all hospitalized patients evaluated in this study, including those meeting criteria for suspected infection, the NEWS appeared to display the highest discrimination. Our results suggest that, among commonly used points-based scoring systems, determining the NEWS for inpatient risk stratification could identify patients with and without infection at high risk of mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vincent X. Liu
- Division of Research, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Oakland
| | - Yun Lu
- Division of Research, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Oakland
| | - Kyle A. Carey
- Department of Medicine, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois
| | - Emily R. Gilbert
- Department of Medicine, Loyola University Medical Center, Chicago, Illinois
| | - Majid Afshar
- Department of Medicine, Loyola University Medical Center, Chicago, Illinois
| | - Mary Akel
- Department of Medicine, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois
| | - Nirav S. Shah
- Department of Medicine, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois
- NorthShore University HealthSystem, Evanston, Illinois
| | - John Dolan
- NorthShore University HealthSystem, Evanston, Illinois
| | | | - Patricia Kipnis
- Division of Research, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Oakland
| | - Dana P. Edelson
- Department of Medicine, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois
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Song X, Liu X, Wang C. The role of telemedicine during the COVID-19 epidemic in China-experience from Shandong province. Crit Care 2020; 24:178. [PMID: 32345359 PMCID: PMC7187668 DOI: 10.1186/s13054-020-02884-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 70] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/01/2020] [Accepted: 04/08/2020] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Xuan Song
- ICU, Liaocheng Cardiac Hospital Affiliated to Shandong First Medical University, Liaocheng, Shandong, China.,Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA.,ICU, DongE Hospital Affiliated to Shandong First Medical University, Liaocheng, Shandong, China
| | - Xinyan Liu
- ICU, Liaocheng Cardiac Hospital Affiliated to Shandong First Medical University, Liaocheng, Shandong, China.,Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA.,ICU, DongE Hospital Affiliated to Shandong First Medical University, Liaocheng, Shandong, China
| | - Chunting Wang
- ICU, Shandong Provincial Hospital Affiliated to Shandong First Medical University, 16766 Jingshi Road, Jinan, 250014, Shandong, China.
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Steele L, Hill S. Using sepsis scores in emergency department and ward patients. Br J Hosp Med (Lond) 2020; 80:C120-C123. [PMID: 31437041 DOI: 10.12968/hmed.2019.80.8.c120] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
Sepsis-3, published in 2016, defined sepsis as 'life-threatening organ dysfunction caused by a dysregulated host response to infection'. Instead of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), calculating the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score was recommended. The complexity of SOFA also led to the introduction of quick SOFA (qSOFA) as a bedside tool. The simultaneous removal of SIRS and introduction of qSOFA belies their significant differences, with SIRS having a high sensitivity but very low specificity, and qSOFA being very specific for a poor outcome, but having a lower sensitivity than SIRS. In the UK, the variables within qSOFA are collected on a regular and repeated basis, along with additional variables, as part of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS). A knowledge of SIRS, qSOFA and NEWS is of value in assessing patients with suspected sepsis, as discussed in this article.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lloyd Steele
- Core Medical Trainee 2, Department of Acute Medicine, Queen Alexandra Hospital, Portsmouth Hospitals NHS Trust, Portsmouth PO6 3LY
| | - Stephen Hill
- Consultant in Acute Medicine, Department of Acute Medicine, Queen Alexandra Hospital, Portsmouth Hospitals NHS Trust, Portsmouth
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Liao X, Wang B, Kang Y. Novel coronavirus infection during the 2019-2020 epidemic: preparing intensive care units-the experience in Sichuan Province, China. Intensive Care Med 2020; 46:357-360. [PMID: 32025779 PMCID: PMC7042184 DOI: 10.1007/s00134-020-05954-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 150] [Impact Index Per Article: 37.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/29/2020] [Accepted: 01/29/2020] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Xuelian Liao
- Sichuan University West China Hospital, Chengdu, Sichuan, China
| | - Bo Wang
- Sichuan University West China Hospital, Chengdu, Sichuan, China
| | - Yan Kang
- Sichuan University West China Hospital, Chengdu, Sichuan, China.
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Contenti J, Occelli C, Lemoel F, Levraut J. Existe-t-il une plus-value du lactate artériel comparé au lactate veineux dans la prise en charge des patients infectés aux urgences ? ANNALES FRANCAISES DE MEDECINE D URGENCE 2020. [DOI: 10.3166/afmu-2019-0179] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
Abstract
Introduction : La mesure du lactate est une étape cruciale dans l’évaluation des patients septiques aux urgences. Bien que la référence soit le prélèvement artériel, celui-ci est inadapté à la médecine d’urgence, et le prélèvement veineux semble être une alternative potentielle. Ce travail s’est intéressé à décrire la concordance entre Lact-A et Lact-V, et à comparer l’apport pronostique du Lact-A comparativement au Lact-V chez les patients infectés aux urgences.
Matériels et méthode : Étude de cohorte prospective observationnelle menée au centre hospitalier universitaire de Nice entre 2015 et 2017. Ont été inclus les patients présentant une suspicion d’infection avec au moins deux critères cliniques de SIRS. Le lactate a été mesuré de manière concomitante par prélèvement veineux et artériel.
Résultats : Au total, 354 couples Lact-A/Lact-V ont été analysés. Le biais moyen entre les valeurs artérielles et veineuses était de 0,65 ± 0,89 mmol/l, avec des limites d’agrément à 95 % de –2,4 + 1,1 mmol/l. Un Lact-V supérieur à 2,3 mmol/l permettait de confirmer un Lact-A supérieur à 2 mmol/l avec une sensibilité de 94,1 % (IC 95 % : [87,8– 97,3]) et une spécificité de 91,7 % (IC 95 % : [87,6–94,5]). De plus, un Lact-V inférieur à 2 mmol/l permettait de confirmer un Lact-A inférieur à 2 mmol/l avec une VPP de 99 %. L’apport pronostique du Lact-V était globalement similaire au Lact-A mais restait relativement faible.
Conclusion : La lactatémie veineuse apporte des arguments équivalents pour l’évaluation pronostique des patients infectés aux urgences. Par ailleurs, un Lact-V inférieur à 2 mmol/l permet d’affirmer un Lact-A normal permettant de surseoir au prélèvement artériel.
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Levin N, Horton D, Sanford M, Horne B, Saseendran M, Graves K, White M, Tonna JE. Failure of vital sign normalization is more strongly associated than single measures with mortality and outcomes. Am J Emerg Med 2019; 38:2516-2523. [PMID: 31864869 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajem.2019.12.024] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/21/2019] [Revised: 11/05/2019] [Accepted: 12/13/2019] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Modified Early Warning Systems (MEWS) scores offer proxies for morbidity and mortality that are easily acquired, but there are limited data on what changing MEWS scores within the ED indicate. We examined the correlation of changing MEWS scores during resuscitation in the ED and in-hospital morbidity and mortality. METHODS We conducted a retrospective analysis on medical ED patients with simplified MEWS scores (without urine output or mental status) admitted to a single academic tertiary care center over one year. Triage-to-Last delta MEWS score and Triage-to-Max delta MEWS scores were calculated and correlated to in-hospital mortality, ICU admission, length of stay (LOS) and diagnosis of sepsis. RESULTS Our analysis included 8322 ED patients with an ICU admission rate of 17% and a mortality rate of 2%. Every point of worsened MEWS after triage was more strongly associated with all-cause mortality (OR 2.41, 95% CI 1.96-2.97) than triage MEWS alone (OR 1.33, 95% CI 1.23-1.44; p < 0.001). Likewise, each point of worsened MEWS was associated with increased odds of ICU admission (Triage-to-Last: OR 2.12, 95% CI 1.92-2.33 and Triage-to-Max: OR 1.52, 95% CI 1.45-1.60, respectively). Among patients with suspected infection, similar associations are found. CONCLUSIONS Dynamic vital signs in the emergency department, as categorized by delta MEWS, and failure to normalize abnormalities, were associated with increased mortality, ICU admission, LOS, and the diagnosis of sepsis. Our results suggest that MEWS scores that do not normalize, from triage onward, are more strongly associated with outcome than any single score.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nicholas Levin
- Division of Emergency Medicine, University of Utah Health, United States of America
| | - Devin Horton
- Division of General Internal Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Utah Health, United States of America
| | - Matthew Sanford
- Value Engineering, University of Utah Health, United States of America
| | - Benjamin Horne
- Department of Surgery, Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Utah Health, United States of America
| | - Mahima Saseendran
- System Quality Department, University of Utah Health, United States of America
| | - Kencee Graves
- Division of General Internal Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Utah Health, United States of America
| | | | - Joseph E Tonna
- Division of Emergency Medicine, University of Utah Health, United States of America; Division of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Department of Surgery, University of Utah Health, United States of America.
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Hope J, Griffiths P, Schmidt PE, Recio-Saucedo A, Smith GB. Impact of using data from electronic protocols in nursing performance management: A qualitative interview study. J Nurs Manag 2019; 27:1682-1690. [PMID: 31482604 PMCID: PMC6919414 DOI: 10.1111/jonm.12858] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/05/2019] [Revised: 08/27/2019] [Accepted: 08/29/2019] [Indexed: 01/02/2023]
Abstract
Aim To explore the impact of using electronic data in performance management to improve nursing compliance with a protocol. Background Electronic data are increasingly used to monitor protocol compliance but little is known about the impact on nurses’ practice in hospital wards. Method Seventeen acute hospital nursing staff participated in semi‐structured interviews about compliance with an early warning score (EWS) protocol delivered by a bedside electronic handheld device. Results Before electronic EWS data was used to monitor compliance, staff combined protocol‐led actions with clinical judgement. However, some observations were missed to reduce noise and disruption at night. After compliance monitoring was introduced, observations were sometimes covertly omitted using a loophole. Interviewees described a loss of autonomy but acknowledged the EWS system sometimes flagged unexpected patient deterioration. Conclusions Introducing automated electronic systems to support nursing tasks can decrease nursing burden but remove the ability to record legitimate reasons for missing observations. This can result in covert resistance that could reduce patient safety. Implications for nursing management Providing the ability to log legitimate reasons for missing observations would allow nurses to balance professional judgement with the use of electronic data in performance management of protocol compliance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joanna Hope
- School of Health Sciences, National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Collaboration for Applied Health Research and Care (CLAHRC), University of Southampton, Wessex, Southampton, UK
| | - Peter Griffiths
- School of Health Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - Paul E Schmidt
- Portsmouth Hospitals NHS Trust, Medical Assessment Unit, Queen Alexandra Hospital, Portsmouth, UK
| | | | - Gary B Smith
- Centre of Postgraduate Medical Research & Education (CoPMRE), Faculty of Health and Social Sciences, Bournemouth University, Bournemouth, Dorset, UK
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Kovach CP, Fletcher GS, Rudd KE, Grant RM, Carlbom DJ. Comparative prognostic accuracy of sepsis scores for hospital mortality in adults with suspected infection in non-ICU and ICU at an academic public hospital. PLoS One 2019; 14:e0222563. [PMID: 31525224 PMCID: PMC6746500 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0222563] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/15/2019] [Accepted: 09/03/2019] [Indexed: 12/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Sepsis is a global healthcare challenge and reliable tools are needed to identify patients and stratify their risk. Here we compare the prognostic accuracy of the sepsis-related organ failure assessment (SOFA), quick SOFA (qSOFA), systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), and national early warning system (NEWS) scores for hospital mortality and other outcomes amongst patients with suspected infection at an academic public hospital. Measurements and main results 10,981 adult patients with suspected infection hospitalized at a U.S. academic public hospital between 2011–2017 were retrospectively identified. Primary exposures were the maximum SIRS, qSOFA, SOFA, and NEWS scores upon inclusion. Comparative prognostic accuracy for the primary outcome of hospital mortality was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Secondary outcomes included mortality in ICU versus non-ICU settings, ICU transfer, ICU length of stay (LOS) >3 days, and hospital LOS >7 days. Adjusted analyses were performed using a model of baseline risk for hospital mortality. 774 patients (7.1%) died in hospital. Discrimination for hospital mortality was highest for SOFA (AUROC 0.90 [95% CI, 0.89–0.91]), followed by NEWS (AUROC 0.85 [95% CI, 0.84–0.86]), qSOFA (AUROC 0.84 [95% CI, 0.83–0.85]), and SIRS (AUROC 0.79 [95% CI, 0.78–0.81]; p<0.001 for all comparisons). NEWS (AUROC 0.94 [95% CI, 0.93–0.95]) outperformed other scores in predicting ICU transfer (qSOFA AUROC 0.89 [95% CI, 0.87–0.91]; SOFA AUROC, 0.84 [95% CI, 0.82–0.87]; SIRS AUROC 0.81 [95% CI, 0.79–0.83]; p<0.001 for all comparisons). NEWS (AUROC 0.86 [95% CI, 0.85–0.86]) was also superior to other scores in predicting ICU LOS >3 days (SOFA AUROC 0.84 [95% CI, 0.83–0.85; qSOFA AUROC, 0.83 [95% CI, 0.83–0.84]; SIRS AUROC, 0.75 [95% CI, 0.74–0.76]; p<0.002 for all comparisons). Conclusions Multivariate prediction scores, such as SOFA and NEWS, had greater prognostic accuracy than qSOFA or SIRS for hospital mortality, ICU transfer, and ICU length of stay. Complex sepsis scores may offer enhanced prognostic performance as compared to simple sepsis scores in inpatient hospital settings where more complex scores can be readily calculated.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christopher P. Kovach
- Division of Pulmonary, Critical Care, and Sleep Medicine, Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Grant S. Fletcher
- Division of Hospital Medicine, Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Kristina E. Rudd
- Division of Pulmonary, Critical Care, and Sleep Medicine, Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
- Clinical Research, Investigation, and Systems Modeling of Acute Illness (CRISMA) Center, Department of Critical Care Medicine, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States of America
| | - Rosemary M. Grant
- Professional Development and Nursing Excellence, Harborview Medical Center, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - David J. Carlbom
- Division of Pulmonary, Critical Care, and Sleep Medicine, Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
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Stewart AGA, Smith S, Binotto E, McBride WJH, Hanson J. The epidemiology and clinical features of rickettsial diseases in North Queensland, Australia: Implications for patient identification and management. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2019; 13:e0007583. [PMID: 31318873 PMCID: PMC6667154 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0007583] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/08/2019] [Revised: 07/30/2019] [Accepted: 06/27/2019] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Rickettsial infections are a common cause of hospitalization in tropical settings, although early diagnosis is challenging in the rural locations where these infections are usually seen. Methods This retrospective, clinical audit of microbiologically-confirmed cases of scrub typhus or spotted fever group (SFG) rickettsial infection between 1997 and 2016 was performed a tertiary referral hospital in tropical Australia. Clinical, laboratory and radiological findings at presentation were correlated with the patients’ subsequent clinical course. Results There were 135 locally-acquired cases (95 scrub typhus, 37 SFG, 3 undifferentiated). There were nine hospitalizations during the first 5 years of the study period and 81 in the last 5 years (p for trend = 0.003). Eighteen (13%) of the 135 cases required ICU admission, all of whom were adults. A greater proportion of patients with SFG infection required ICU support (8/37 (22%) compared with 10/95 (11%) scrub typhus cases), although this difference did not reach statistical significance (p = 0.10). Three (8%) of the 37 patients with SFG infection had severe disease (1 died, 2 developed permanent disability) versus 0/95 scrub typhus patients (p = 0.02). Adults with a high admission qSOFA score (≥2) had an odds ratio (OR) of 19 (95% CI:4.8–74.5) for subsequent ICU admission (p<0.001); adults with a high NEWS2 score (≥7) had an OR of 14.3 (95% CI:4.5–45.32) for ICU admission (p<0.001). A patient’s respiratory rate at presentation had strong prognostic utility: if an adult had an admission respiratory rate <22 breaths/minute, the negative predictive value for subsequent ICU admission was 95% (95% CI 88–99). Conclusions In the well-resourced Australian health system outcomes are excellent, but the local burden of rickettsial disease appears to be increasing and the clinical phenotype of SFG infections may be more severe than previously believed. Simple, clinical assessment on admission has prognostic utility and may be used to guide management. Rickettsial infections are a common cause of hospitalization in tropical settings, although early, definitive diagnosis is challenging in the rural and remote locations where they are usually seen. It is important to recognise rickettsial infections early in their disease course as they can lead to life-threatening multi-organ failure if specific anti-rickettsial antimicrobial therapy is not prescribed promptly. In tropical Australia, scrub typhus and spotted fever group (SFG) rickettsiae are the dominant rickettsial pathogens and this twenty-year retrospective series examines the clinical and laboratory findings which might facilitate their recognition. The study highlights the infections’ increasing local clinical burden and reports that over 20% of the SFG cases in the series required Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission, suggesting that severe SFG disease may be more common than previously believed. Simple, clinical prediction scores—calculated at presentation—identified patients who would subsequently require ICU admission. Importantly, they were also able to identify patients at low risk of disease progression. These entirely clinical scores—which can be calculated rapidly at the bedside—have the potential to facilitate the management of patients with scrub typhus and SFG infection, particularly in resource-limited settings which have the greatest burden of disease.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Simon Smith
- Department of Medicine, Cairns Hospital, Cairns, Australia
| | - Enzo Binotto
- Department of Medicine, Cairns Hospital, Cairns, Australia
| | | | - Josh Hanson
- Department of Medicine, Cairns Hospital, Cairns, Australia
- Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
- * E-mail:
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Anand V, Zhang Z, Kadri SS, Klompas M, Rhee C. Epidemiology of Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment Criteria in Undifferentiated Patients and Association With Suspected Infection and Sepsis. Chest 2019; 156:289-297. [PMID: 30978329 DOI: 10.1016/j.chest.2019.03.032] [Citation(s) in RCA: 32] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/01/2019] [Revised: 03/07/2019] [Accepted: 03/15/2019] [Indexed: 12/20/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The role of Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) criteria in sepsis screening and management is controversial, particularly as they were derived only in patients with suspected infection. We examined the epidemiology and prognostic value of qSOFA in undifferentiated patients. METHODS We identified patients with ≥ 2 qSOFA criteria within 1 day of admission among all adults admitted to 85 US hospitals from 2012 to 2015 and assessed for suspected infection (using clinical cultures and administration of antibiotics) and sepsis (as defined on the basis of Sepsis-3 criteria). We also examined the discrimination of qSOFA for in-hospital mortality among patients with and without suspected infection, using regression models. RESULTS Of 1,004,347 hospitalized patients, 271,500 (27.0%) were qSOFA-positive on admission. Compared with qSOFA-negative patients, qSOFA-positive patients were older (median age, 65 vs 58 years), required ICU admission more often (28.5% vs 6.5%), and had higher mortality (6.7% vs 0.8%) (P < .001 for all comparisons). Sensitivities of qSOFA for suspected infection and sepsis were 41.3% (95% CI, 41.1%-41.5%) and 62.8% (95% CI, 62.4%-63.1%), respectively; positive predictive values were 31.0% (95% CI, 30.8%-31.1%) and 17.4% (95% CI, 17.2%-17.5%). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for mortality was lower for qSOFA in patients with suspected infection vs those without (0.814 vs 0.875; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS Only one in three patients who are qSOFA-positive on admission has suspected infection, and one in six has sepsis. qSOFA also has low sensitivity for identifying suspected infection and sepsis, and its prognostic significance is not specific to infection. More sensitive and specific tools for sepsis screening and risk stratification are needed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vijay Anand
- Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA
| | - Zilu Zhang
- Department of Population Medicine, Harvard Medical School/Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute, Boston, MA
| | - Sameer S Kadri
- Critical Care Medicine Department, National Institutes of Health Clinical Center, Bethesda, MD
| | - Michael Klompas
- Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA; Department of Population Medicine, Harvard Medical School/Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute, Boston, MA
| | - Chanu Rhee
- Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA; Department of Population Medicine, Harvard Medical School/Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute, Boston, MA.
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