Impact of the implementation of rest days in live bird markets on the dynamics of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza

Amplification of avian influenza virus circulation along poultry marketing chains in Bangladesh: A controlled field experiment

The prevalence of avian influenza viruses is commonly found to increase dramatically as birds are transported from farms to live bird markets. Viral transmission dynamics along marketing chains are, however, poorly understood. To address this gap, we implemented a controlled field experiment altering chicken supply to a live bird market in Chattogram, Bangladesh. Broilers and backyard chickens traded along altered (intervention) and conventional (control) marketing chains were tested for avian influenza viruses at different time points. Upon arrival at the live bird market, the odds of detecting avian influenza viruses did not differ between control and intervention groups. However, 12 h later, intervention group odds were lower, particularly for broilers, indicating that viral shedding in live bird markets resulted partly from infections occurring during transport and trade. Curtailing avian influenza virus prevalence in live bird markets requires mitigating risk in marketing chain nodes preceding chickens' delivery at live bird markets.

Modelling the transmission dynamics of H9N2 avian influenza viruses in a live bird market

H9N2 avian influenza viruses (AIVs) are a major concern for the poultry sector and human health in countries where this subtype is endemic. By fitting a model simulating H9N2 AIV transmission to data from a field experiment, we characterise the epidemiology of the virus in a live bird market in Bangladesh. Many supplied birds arrive already exposed to H9N2 AIVs, resulting in many broiler chickens entering the market as infected, and many indigenous backyard chickens entering with pre-existing immunity. Most susceptible chickens become infected within one day spent at the market, owing to high levels of viral transmission within market and short latent periods, as brief as 5.3 hours. Although H9N2 AIV transmission can be substantially reduced under moderate levels of cleaning and disinfection, effective risk mitigation also requires a range of additional interventions targeting markets and other nodes along the poultry production and distribution network.

EPINEST, an agent-based model to simulate epidemic dynamics in large-scale poultry production and distribution networks

The rapid intensification of poultry production raises important concerns about the associated risks of zoonotic infections. Here, we introduce EPINEST (EPIdemic NEtwork Simulation in poultry Transportation systems): an agent-based modelling framework designed to simulate pathogen transmission within realistic poultry production and distribution networks. We provide example applications to broiler production in Bangladesh, but the modular structure of the model allows for easy parameterization to suit specific countries and system configurations. Moreover, the framework enables the replication of a wide range of eco-epidemiological scenarios by incorporating diverse pathogen life-history traits, modes of transmission and interactions between multiple strains and/or pathogens. EPINEST was developed in the context of an interdisciplinary multi-centre study conducted in Bangladesh, India, Vietnam and Sri Lanka, and will facilitate the investigation of the spreading patterns of various health hazards such as avian influenza, Campylobacter, Salmonella and antimicrobial resistance in these countries. Furthermore, this modelling framework holds potential for broader application in veterinary epidemiology and One Health research, extending its relevance beyond poultry to encompass other livestock species and disease systems.

Markets as drivers of selection for highly virulent poultry pathogens

Theoretical models have successfully predicted the evolution of poultry pathogen virulence in industrialized farm contexts of broiler chicken populations. Whether there are ecological factors specific to more traditional rural farming that affect virulence is an open question. Within non-industrialized farming networks, live bird markets are known to be hotspots of transmission, but whether they could shift selection pressures on the evolution of poultry pathogen virulence has not been addressed. Here, we revisit predictions for the evolution of virulence for viral poultry pathogens, such as Newcastle's disease virus, Marek's disease virus, and influenza virus, H5N1, using a compartmental model that represents transmission in rural markets. We show that both the higher turnover rate and higher environmental persistence in markets relative to farms could select for higher optimal virulence strategies. In contrast to theoretical results modeling industrialized poultry farms, we find that cleaning could also select for decreased virulence in the live poultry market setting. Additionally, we predict that more virulent strategies selected in markets could circulate solely within poultry located in markets. Thus, we recommend the close monitoring of markets not only as hotspots of transmission, but as potential sources of more virulent strains of poultry pathogens.

Determinants for the presence of avian influenza virus in live bird markets in Bangladesh: Towards an easy fix of a looming one health issue

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H5N1 endangers poultry, wildlife, and human health and is enzootic in large parts of Asia, with live bird markets (LBMs) as putative hotspots for their maintenance, amplification, and spread. To mitigate the extent of these and other avian influenza viruses (AIV) of concern, we aimed to increase our quantitative understanding of the factors determining the presence of avian influenza virus in LBM stalls. Between 2016 and 2017, we collected fecal or offal samples from 1008 stalls in 113 LBMs across the Dhaka and Rajshahi districts in Bangladesh. For each stall, samples were pooled and tested for the AIV matrix gene, followed by H5 and H9 subtyping using rRT-PCR. We detected Influenza A viral RNA in 49% of the stalls. Of the AIV positive samples, 52% and 24% were determined to be H5 and H9 viruses, respectively, which are both subtypes of considerable health concern. We used generalized linear mixed effect modelling to study AIV presence in individual stalls within LBMs as a function of 13 out of the 20 risk factors identified by FAO. We found that small and feasible improvements in cleaning and disinfection frequency, installing running water in stalls, and not mixing different breeds of chicken in the same cages had large impacts on the presence of AIV in stalls (Odds ratios 0.03-0.05). Next, cleaning vehicles used in poultry transport, not selling waterfowl with chickens in the same stall, buying stock directly from commercial farms, separating sick birds from healthy ones, and avoiding access by wild birds like house crows, also had major effects on lowering the risk of stalls having AIV (Odds ratios 0.16-0.33). These findings can be directly used in developing practical and affordable measures to reduce the prevalence of AIV in LBMs. Also, in settings with limited resources like Bangladesh, such mitigation may significantly contribute to reducing AIV circulation amongst poultry and spillover to wildlife and humans.

Policies to prevent zoonotic spillover: a systematic scoping review of evaluative evidence

BACKGROUND

Emerging infectious diseases of zoonotic origin present a critical threat to global population health. As accelerating globalisation makes epidemics and pandemics more difficult to contain, there is a need for effective preventive interventions that reduce the risk of zoonotic spillover events. Public policies can play a key role in preventing spillover events. The aim of this review is to identify and describe evaluations of public policies that target the determinants of zoonotic spillover. Our approach is informed by a One Health perspective, acknowledging the inter-connectedness of human, animal and environmental health.

METHODS

In this systematic scoping review, we searched Medline, SCOPUS, Web of Science and Global Health in May 2021 using search terms combining animal health and the animal-human interface, public policy, prevention and zoonoses. We screened titles and abstracts, extracted data and reported our process in line with PRISMA-ScR guidelines. We also searched relevant organisations' websites for evaluations published in the grey literature. All evaluations of public policies aiming to prevent zoonotic spillover events were eligible for inclusion. We summarised key data from each study, mapping policies along the spillover pathway.

RESULTS

Our review found 95 publications evaluating 111 policies. We identified 27 unique policy options including habitat protection; trade regulations; border control and quarantine procedures; farm and market biosecurity measures; public information campaigns; and vaccination programmes, as well as multi-component programmes. These were implemented by many sectors, highlighting the cross-sectoral nature of zoonotic spillover prevention. Reports emphasised the importance of surveillance data in both guiding prevention efforts and enabling policy evaluation, as well as the importance of industry and private sector actors in implementing many of these policies. Thoughtful engagement with stakeholders ranging from subsistence hunters and farmers to industrial animal agriculture operations is key for policy success in this area.

CONCLUSION

This review outlines the state of the evaluative evidence around policies to prevent zoonotic spillover in order to guide policy decision-making and focus research efforts. Since we found that most of the existing policy evaluations target 'downstream' determinants, additional research could focus on evaluating policies targeting 'upstream' determinants of zoonotic spillover, such as land use change, and policies impacting infection intensity and pathogen shedding in animal populations, such as those targeting animal welfare.

Annual trading patterns and risk factors of avian influenza A/H5 and A/H9 virus circulation in turkey birds (Meleagris gallopavo) at live bird markets in Dhaka city, Bangladesh

The impacts of the avian influenza virus (AIV) on farmed poultry and wild birds affect human health, livelihoods, food security, and international trade. The movement patterns of turkey birds from farms to live bird markets (LBMs) and infection of AIV are poorly understood in Bangladesh. Thus, we conducted weekly longitudinal surveillance in LBMs to understand the trading patterns, temporal trends, and risk factors of AIV circulation in turkey birds. We sampled a total of 423 turkeys from two LBMs in Dhaka between May 2018 and September 2019. We tested the swab samples for the AIV matrix gene (M-gene) followed by H5, H7, and H9 subtypes using real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR). We used exploratory analysis to investigate trading patterns, annual cyclic trends of AIV and its subtypes, and a generalized estimating equation (GEE) logistic model to determine the factors that influence the infection of H5 and H9 in turkeys. Furthermore, we conducted an observational study and informal interviews with traders and vendors to record turkey trading patterns, demand, and supply and turkey handling practices in LBM. We found that all trade routes of turkey birds to northern Dhaka are unidirectional and originate from the northwestern and southern regions of Bangladesh. The number of trades from the source district to Dhaka depends on the turkey density. The median distance that turkey was traded from its source district to Dhaka was 188 km (Q1 = 165, Q3 = 210, IQR = 45.5). We observed seasonal variation in the median and average distance of turkey. The qualitative findings revealed that turkey farming initially became reasonably profitable in 2018 and at the beginning of 2019. However, the fall in demand and production in the middle of 2019 may be related to unstable market pricing, high feed costs, a shortfall of adequate marketing facilities, poor consumer knowledge, and a lack of advertising. The overall prevalence of AIV, H5, and H9 subtypes in turkeys was 31% (95% CI: 26.6-35.4), 16.3% (95% CI: 12.8-19.8), and 10.2% (95% CI: 7.3-13.1) respectively. None of the samples were positive for H7. The circulation of AIV and H9 across the annual cycle showed no seasonality, whereas the circulation of H5 showed significant seasonality. The GEE revealed that detection of AIV increases in retail vendor business (OR: 1.71; 95% CI: 1.12-2.62) and the bird's health status is sick (OR: 10.77; 95% CI: 4.31-26.94) or dead (OR: 11.33; 95% CI: 4.30-29.89). We also observed that winter season (OR: 5.83; 95% CI: 2.80-12.14) than summer season, dead birds (OR: 61.71; 95% CI: 25.78-147.75) and sick birds (OR 8.33; 95% CI: 3.36-20.64) compared to healthy birds has a higher risk of H5 infection in turkeys. This study revealed that the turkeys movements vary by time and season from the farm to the LBM. This surveillance indicated year-round circulation of AIV with H5 and H9 subtypes in turkey birds in LBMs. The seasonality and health condition of birds influence H5 infection in birds. The trading pattern of turkey may play a role in the transmission of AIV viruses in the birds. The selling of sick turkeys infected with H5 and H9 highlights the possibility of virus transmission to other species of birds sold at LBMs and to people.

Mixed selling of different poultry species facilitates emergence of public-health-threating avian influenza viruses

Live poultry markets (LPMs) are regarded as hubs for avian influenza virus (AIV) transmission in poultry and are a major risk factor in human AIV infections. We performed an AIV surveillance study at a wholesale LPM, where different poultry species were sold in separate stalls, and nine retail LPMs, which received poultry from the wholesale LPM but where different poultry species were sold in one stall, in Guangdong province from 2017 to 2019. A higher AIV isolation rate was observed at the retail LPMs than the wholesale LPM. H9N2 was the dominant AIV subtype and was mainly present in chickens and quails. The genetic diversity of H9N2 viruses was greater at the retail LPMs, where a complex system of two-way transmission between different poultry species had formed. The isolated H9N2 viruses could be classed into four genotypes: G57 and the three novel genotypes, NG164, NG165, and NG166. The H9N2 AIVs isolated from chickens and quails at the wholesale LPM only belonged to the G57 and NG164 genotypes, respectively. However, the G57, NG164, and NG165 genotypes were identified in both chickens and quails at the retail LPMs. We found that the replication and transmission of the NG165 genotype were more adaptive to both poultry and mammalian models than those of its precursor genotype, NG164. Our findings revealed that mixed poultry selling at retail LPMs has increased the genetic diversity of AIVs, which might facilitate the emergence of novel viruses that threaten public health.

Prevalence and associated risk factors of avian influenza A virus subtypes H5N1 and H9N2 in LBMs of East Java province, Indonesia: a cross-sectional study

Background

Avian influenza A virus subtypes H5N1 and H9N2 are contagious zoonotic diseases that are circulating in Indonesia and have raised increasing concern about their potential impacts on poultry and public health. A cross-sectional study was carried out to investigate the prevalence and associated risk factors of avian influenza A virus subtypes H5N1 and H9N2 among poultry in the live bird markets of four cities in East Java province, Indonesia.

Methods

A total of 600 tracheal and cloacal swabs (267 from backyards, 179 from broilers, and 154 from layers) from healthy birds were collected. The samples were inoculated into specific pathogenic-free embryonated eggs at 9-day-old via the allantoic cavity. qRT-PCR was used for further identification of avian influenza.

Results

The overall prevalence of circulating influenza A virus subtypes H5N1 and H9N2 was 3.8% (23/600, 95%CI [0.0229–0.0537]). Prevalence was higher in backyards at 5.99% (16/267) followed by broilers (2.23% (4/179)) and layers (1.68% (3/154)). The final multivariable model revealed five risk factors for H9N2 infections: presence of ducks (p = 0.003, OR = 38.2), turkeys (p = 0.017 OR = 0.032), and pheasants in the stall (p = 0.04, OR = 18.422), dry (p = 0.006) and rainy season (p < 0.001), and household birds (p = 0.002) and seven factors for H5N1 infections including: observing rodents (p = 0.036, OR = 0.005), stray dogs access (p = 0.004 OR ≤ 0.001), presence of turkeys (p = 0.03 OR = 0.007), chukars/partridges (p = 0.024 OR = 2500), and peafowls in the stalls (p = 0.0043 OR ≤ 0.001), rainy season (p = 0.001) and birds from the household sources (p = 0.002) in the live bird markets.

Conclusions

The findings of the current study illustrate the recurring infection and presence of both avian influenza viruses and associated risk factors in the surveyed marketplaces. Effective protective measures and mitigation strategies for risks outlined in this study could help to reduce the burden of H5N1 and H9N2 AI subtypes into the live bird markets of Indonesia.

Surveillance of the spread of avian influenza virus type A in live bird markets in Tripoli, Libya, and determination of the associated risk factors

Background and Aim: Studies on avian influenza virus (AIV) in Libya are few and limited. This study aimed to determine the presence of AIV in live bird markets (LBMs) in Tripoli and determine the risk factors associated with AIV spread. Materials and Methods: In total, 269 cloacal swabs were randomly collected from different bird species in 9 LBMs located in Tripoli and its surrounding regions. The target species were ducks, geese, local chickens, Australian chickens, Brahma chickens, turkeys, pigeons, quails, peacock broiler chicks, and pet birds. Total RNA was extracted from the swab samples and used for real-time polymerase chain reaction to detect AIV type A. Results: Of the 269 samples, 28 (10.41% of total samples) were positive for AIV type A. The LBMs with positive samples were Souq Aljumaa, Souq Alkhamees, Souq Althulatha, and Souq Tajoura. The highest percentage (35.71%) of AIV was recorded in Souq Aljumaa. Positive results for AIV type A were obtained primarily in three species of birds: Ducks (14/65; highest percentage: 21.5%), local chickens (12/98; 12.24%), and geese (2/28; 7.14%). Furthermore, the following three risk factors associated with the spread of AIV type A were identified: Time spent by breeders/vendors at the market (odds ratio [OR] = 11.181; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.827–32.669), methods used for disposing dead birds (OR = 2.356; 95% CI = 1.005–5.521), and last visited LBM (OR = 0.740; 95% CI = 0.580–0.944). Restricting the movement of poultry vendors from one market to another may protect against AIV spread. Conclusion: The findings of this study indicate the high risk of AIV spread in LBMs and highlight the need for continuous surveillance of LBMs across the country.

Live bird market in Bangladesh: Regulatory systems and operations

Objective:

In developing countries, such as Bangladesh, the live bird market (LBM) is a vital location for the trading of live poultry. The study was carried out in nine LBMs located around Bangladesh to ascertain the present regulations and procedures governing their operation. Additionally, the responsibilities and levels of engagement of the stakeholders were determined.

Materials and Methods:

The data were gathered through the use of a semi-structured interview guide. Thematic analysis was used to code the interview transcripts iteratively.

Results:

The findings indicated that the government was directly and indirectly involved in the leasing process of the markets. A market in this country is divided into numerous sectors, including LBM, fish market, vegetable market, and grocery stores. A market’s hygienic condition is highly dependent on market authority’s decisions. In some markets, market officials conducted routine sanitary inspections. Veterinarians played a little role in the inspection procedure.

Conclusion:

There is no adequate, functional monitoring system to ensure that LBMs adhere to cleanliness and adequate and functional biosecurity. Biosecurity enhancements, effective cleaning programs, and regular monitoring by relevant authorities are critical for LBMs in Bangladesh.

Wild bird trade at live poultry markets potentiates risks of avian influenza virus introductions in Iran

Wild aquatic birds are the main natural host reservoir of avian influenza viruses (AIV). Migratory aquatic birds can translocate AI viruses over wide geographic distances. AIV may be transmitted reciprocally at the wild bird–poultry interface, increasing viral variability and potentially driving the zoonotic potential of these viruses. A cross-sectional study on AIV and several further avian viral pathogens conducted in 396 trapped migratory aquatic birds traded at live bird markets (LBM) in northern Iran identified 11 AIV-positive cases. The 10 identified H9N2 viral sequences fell into wild bird H9 lineage Y439; in addition, an H10N3 virus of Eurasian lineage was detected. Ten samples contained low viral loads of avian coronavirus but could not be further characterized. Although traditional trading of live-trapped wild birds provides income for hunters, particularly during fall migration periods, it increases the risk of introducing new AIV strains from the natural reservoir to poultry kept at LBMs and, potentially, to traders and customers. Banning these birds from poultry trading lines would lower such risks considerably.

Prior infection with antigenically heterologous low pathogenic avian influenza viruses interferes with the lethality of the H5 highly pathogenic strain in domestic ducks

Low and highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (LPAIVs and HPAIVs, respectively) have been co-circulating in poultry populations in Asian, Middle Eastern, and African countries. In our avian-flu surveillance in Vietnamese domestic ducks, viral genes of LPAIV and HPAIV have been frequently detected in the same individual. To assess the influence of LPAIV on the pathogenicity of H5 HPAIV in domestic ducks, an experimental co-infection study was performed. One-week-old domestic ducks were inoculated intranasally and orally with PBS (control) or 10⁶ EID₅₀ of LPAIVs (A/duck/Vietnam/LBM678/2014 (H6N6) or A/Muscovy duck/Vietnam/LBM694/2014 (H9N2)). Seven days later, these ducks were inoculated with HPAIV (A/Muscovy duck/Vietnam/LBM808/2015 (H5N6)) in the same manner. The respective survival rates were 100% and 50% in ducks pre-infected with LBM694 or LBM678 strains and both higher than the survival of the control group (25%). The virus titers in oral/cloacal swabs of each LPAIV pre-inoculation group were significantly lower at 3-5 days post-HPAIV inoculation. Notably, almost no virus was detected in swabs from surviving individuals of the LBM678 pre-inoculation group. Antigenic cross-reactivity among the viruses was not observed in the neutralization test. These results suggest that pre-infection with LPAIV attenuates the pathogenicity of HPAIV in domestic ducks, which might be explained by innate and/or cell-mediated immunity induced by the initial infection with LPAIV.

Backyard poultry flocks in France: A diversity of owners and biosecurity practices

Over the past few years, the number of backyard poultry flocks has been increasing in France. A mandatory step to improve backyard poultry management is to assess health risks by characterizing the flocks and understanding the owners' motivations for keeping poultry and their husbandry practices. A survey of backyard poultry owners was conducted in France to gather information about their motivations for owning poultry, flock characteristics, and breeding and biosecurity practices. The survey was completed by 1,160 owners. The major motivations for owning poultry flocks were egg consumption (93.3 %), recycling (72.4 %) and having pet animals (53.2 %). Most owners had already heard about avian influenza (96.7 %), but were less aware about other diseases such as Newcastle Disease (41.6 %), salmonellosis (79.1 %), or campylobacteriosis (18.6 %). Owners mainly kept only egg-layers (78.4 %), and the median size flock was five egg-layers. Owners gave eggs to their relatives, occasionally or regularly, in 86.6 % of the cases. Contacts with other family poultry owners were frequent (68.9 %) and biosecurity practices were poorly implemented: 50 % of owners did not wash their hands systematically after visiting the flock and more than 60 % of owners did not wear specific shoes. Drawing from the survey data, five profiles of family poultry flocks were identified with multiple correspondence analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis. The profiles, based on flock characteristics and owners' practices and motivations, illustrate the heterogeneity of the backyard poultry sector: 1) urban poultry, 2) traditional poultry, 3) student poultry, 4) pet poultry and 5) hobby poultry. Urban poultry consisted of recently constituted (< 2 years old), small (< 3 birds) flocks of layers, and traditional poultry of older, medium-sized flocks belonging to retired and older people. These two profiles were characterized by limited contacts (direct or indirect) with other flocks and owners. Student poultry consisted of younger owners (<30 years old) with flocks over 5 years old. Pet poultry consisted of recently established, medium-size flocks of layers located in both rural or urban environments. Hobby poultry consisted of dedicated owners who breed and sell poultry and participate in exhibitions and poultry shows. Pet and hobby poultry profiles were characterized by greater knowledge of diseases and biosecurity practices, more bird movements, and reported more frequent clinical signs. The observation of different profiles can help target veterinary and public health education messages to prevent disease transmission in backyard poultry flocks in France.

Risk Areas for Influenza A(H5) Environmental Contamination in Live Bird Markets, Dhaka, Bangladesh

We evaluated the presence of influenza A(H5) virus environmental contamination in live bird markets (LBMs) in Dhaka, Bangladesh. By using Bernoulli generalized linear models and multinomial logistic regression models, we quantified LBM-level factors associated with market work zone–specific influenza A(H5) virus contamination patterns. Results showed higher environmental contamination in LBMs that have wholesale and retail operations compared with retail-only markets (relative risk 0.69, 95% 0.51–0.93; p = 0.012) and in March compared with January (relative risk 2.07, 95% CI 1.44–2.96; p<0.001). Influenza A(H5) environmental contamination remains a public health problem in most LBMs in Dhaka, which underscores the need to implement enhanced biosecurity interventions in LBMs in Bangladesh.

What can phylodynamics bring to animal health research?

Infectious diseases are a major burden to global economies, and public and animal health. To date, quantifying the spread of infectious diseases to inform policy making has traditionally relied on epidemiological data collected during epidemics. However, interest has grown in recent phylodynamic techniques to infer pathogen transmission dynamics from genetic data. Here, we provide examples of where this new discipline has enhanced disease management in public health and illustrate how it could be further applied in animal health. In particular, we describe how phylodynamics can address fundamental epidemiological questions, such as inferring key transmission parameters in animal populations and quantifying spillover events at the wildlife-livestock interface, and generate important insights for the design of more effective control strategies.

Optimizing the early detection of low pathogenic avian influenza H7N9 virus in live bird markets

In Southeast Asia, surveillance at live bird markets (LBMs) has been identified as crucial for detecting avian influenza viruses (AIV) and reducing the risk of human infections. However, the design of effective surveillance systems in LBMs remains complex given the rapid turn-over of poultry. We developed a deterministic transmission model to provide guidance for optimizing AIV surveillance efforts. The model was calibrated to fit one of the largest LBMs in northern Vietnam at high risk of low pathogenic H7N9 virus introduction from China to identify the surveillance strategy that optimizes H7N9 detection. Results show that (i) using a portable diagnostic device would slightly reduce the number of infected birds leaving the LBM before the first detection, as compared to a laboratory-based diagnostic strategy, (ii) H7N9 detection could become more timely by sampling birds staying overnight, just before new susceptible birds are introduced at the beginning of a working day, and (iii) banning birds staying overnight would represent an effective intervention to reduce the risk of H7N9 spread but would decrease the likelihood of virus detection if introduced. These strategies should receive high priority in Vietnam and other Asian countries at risk of H7N9 introduction.

Genetic diversity of the H5N1 viruses in live bird markets, Indonesia

Background

The live bird market (LBM) plays an important role in the dynamic evolution of the avian influenza H5N1 virus.

Objectives

The main objective of this study was to monitor the genetic diversity of the H5N1 viruses in LBMs in Indonesia.

Methods

Therefore, the disease surveillance was conducted in the area of Banten, West Java, Central Java, East Java, and Jakarta Province, Indonesia from 2014 to 2019. Subsequently, the genetic characterization of the H5N1 viruses was performed by sequencing all 8 segments of the viral genome.

Results

As a result, the H5N1 viruses were detected in most of LBMs in both bird' cloacal and environmental samples, in which about 35% of all samples were positive for influenza A and, subsequently, about 52% of these samples were positive for H5 subtyping. Based on the genetic analyses of 14 viruses isolated from LBMs, genetic diversities of the H5N1 viruses were identified including clades 2.1.3 and 2.3.2 as typical predominant groups as well as reassortant viruses between these 2 clades.

Conclusions

As a consequence, zoonotic transmission to humans in the market could be occurred from the exposure of infected birds and/or contaminated environments. Moreover, new virus variants could emerge from the LBM environment. Therefore, improving pandemic preparedness raised great concerns related to the zoonotic aspect of new influenza variants because of its high adaptivity and efficiency for human infection.

Qualitative risk assessment of transmission pathways of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus at live poultry markets in Dhaka city, Bangladesh

Analysis of environmental samples obtained from the Live Poultry Markets (LPMs) of Dhaka City, Bangladesh, has revealed that the highest degree of prevalence of highly pathogenic avian influenza A (HPAI, H5N1), besides other subtypes of the LPAI virus, poses the plausible risk of transmission of these viruses between human and poultry species. The present study was conducted using the OIE risk analysis framework to assess the risk level of each pathway successively. The estimated risk parameters were integrated towards to obtain the overall risk level for each specific HPAI transmission pathway using the matrix adapted by Cristobel Zepeda accompanying other expert consultations. The relevant data obtained from published and unpublished sources, together with survey data of field observations, were used to formulate and confirm the risk pathways and their associated risks. The results revealed that the risk of the release of the HPAI virus was medium when exposure was high. Additionally, the consequence would be considered very high with a medium degree of uncertainty for all parameters. Ultimately, the overall risk for transmission was estimated as medium with a medium degree of uncertainty. The findings of this study reveal that there is a significant threat that HPAI virus transmission could occur among poultry and humans and effectively sustain within the environment of the LPMs. Our findings are primarily focused on public health considerations, the hygienic slaughter of poultry and the relevant cleaning and sanitation practices conducted in the LPMs to support evidence-based decision-making processes. The findings of the study have the potential to be used to formulate effective risk reduction measures and can be further adapted in low-resource settings without major infrastructural changes required of the LPMs. All of which would reduce the risk of HPAI virus release and further lessen the degree of exposure and transmission in established LPMs.

Knowledge and remaining gaps on the role of animal and human movements in the poultry production and trade networks in the global spread of avian influenza viruses - A scoping review

Poultry production has significantly increased worldwide, along with the number of avian influenza (AI) outbreaks and the potential threat for human pandemic emergence. The role of wild bird movements in this global spread has been extensively studied while the role of animal, human and fomite movement within commercial poultry production and trade networks remains poorly understood. The aim of this work is to better understand these roles in relation to the different routes of AI spread. A scoping literature review was conducted according to the PRISMA guidelines (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) using a search algorithm combining twelve domains linked to AI spread and animal/human movements within poultry production and trade networks. Only 28 out of 3,978 articles retrieved dealt especially with the role of animal, human and fomite movements in AI spread within the international trade network (4 articles), the national trade network (8 articles) and the production network (16 articles). While the role of animal movements in AI spread within national trade networks has been largely identified, human and fomite movements have been considered more at risk for AI spread within national production networks. However, the role of these movements has never been demonstrated with field data, and production networks have only been partially studied and never at international level. The complexity of poultry production networks and the limited access to production and trade data are important barriers to this knowledge. There is a need to study the role of animal and human movements within poultry production and trade networks in the global spread of AI in partnership with both public and private actors to fill this gap.

Game theory of vaccination and depopulation for managing livestock diseases and zoonoses on small-scale farms

Livestock producers adapt their farm management to epidemiological risks in different ways, through veterinary interventions but also by modulating their farm size and the removal rate of animals. The objective of this theoretical study was to elucidate how these behavioral adaptations may affect the epidemiology of highly-pathogenic avian influenza in domestic poultry and the outcome of the implemented control policies. We studied a symmetric population game where the players are broiler poultry farmers at risk of infection and where the between-farms disease transmission is both environmental and mediated by poultry trade. Three types of farmer behaviors were modelled: vaccination, depopulation, and cessation of poultry farming. We found that the transmission level of the disease through trade networks has strong qualitative effects on the system's epidemiological-economic equilibria. In the case of low trade-based transmission, when the monetary cost of infection is high, depopulation behavior can maintain a stable disease-free equilibrium. In addition, vaccination behavior can lead to eradication by private incentives alone - an outcome not seen for human diseases. In a scenario of high trade-based transmission, depopulation behavior has perverse epidemiological effects as it accelerates the spread of disease via poultry trade. In this situation, state interventions should focus on making vaccination technologies available at a low price rather than penalizing infected farms.

A Decade of Avian Influenza in Bangladesh: Where Are We Now?

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) has been a public health threat in Bangladesh since the first reported outbreak in poultry in 2007. The country has undertaken numerous efforts to detect, track, and combat avian influenza viruses (AIVs). The predominant genotype of the H5N1 viruses is clade 2.3.2.1a. The persistent changing of clades of the circulating H5N1 strains suggests probable mutations that might have been occurring over time. Surveillance has provided evidence that the virus has persistently prevailed in all sectors and caused discontinuous infections. The presence of AIV in live bird markets has been detected persistently. Weak biosecurity in the poultry sector is linked with resource limitation, low risk perception, and short-term sporadic interventions. Controlling avian influenza necessitates a concerted multi-sector ‘One Health’ approach that includes the government and key stakeholders.

Prevalence of Avian Influenza A(H5) and A(H9) Viruses in Live Bird Markets, Bangladesh

We conducted a cross-sectional study in live bird markets (LBMs) in Dhaka and Chittagong, Bangladesh, to estimate the prevalence of avian influenza A(H5) and A(H9) viruses in different types of poultry and environmental areas by using Bayesian hierarchical logistic regression models. We detected these viruses in nearly all LBMs. Prevalence of A(H5) virus was higher in waterfowl than in chickens, whereas prevalence of A(H9) virus was higher in chickens than in waterfowl and, among chicken types, in industrial broilers than in cross-breeds and indigenous breeds. LBMs with >1 wholesaler were more frequently contaminated by A(H5) virus than retail-only LBMs. Prevalence of A(H9) virus in poultry and level of environmental contamination were also higher in LBMs with >1 wholesaler. We found a high level of circulation of both avian influenza viruses in surveyed LBMs. Prevalence was influenced by type of poultry, environmental site, and trading.

Will China's H7N9 Control Strategy Continue to Be Effective?

Since the first outbreak of avian influenza A(H7N9) virus in China in early 2013, several interventions to control the transmission of H7N9 virus from poultry to humans have been implemented. Temporarily closing live poultry markets reduced the risk of human infection to an extent, but it did not prevent the spread of the H7N9 virus among poultry, and this spread eventually led to more human cases. Nevertheless, the mass vaccination of poultry after September 2017 has been highly effective in preventing the H7N9 virus infection in both poultry and humans. In light of the emergence of highly pathogenic H7N9 and H7N2 viruses in unimmunized ducks, vaccination among poultry, especially for ducks, should be accompanied with continued surveillance of H7N9 variants and other avian influenza A viruses that could signal a heightened pandemic risk.

Risk factors for H5 avian influenza virus prevalence on urban live bird markets in Jakarta, Indonesia-Evaluation of long-term environmental surveillance data

In the re-emergence of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), live bird markets have been identified to play a critical role. In this repeated cross-sectional study, we combined surveillance data collected monthly on Jakarta's live bird markets over a five-year period, with risk factors related to the structure and management of live bird markets, the trading and slaughtering of birds at these markets, and environmental and demographic conditions in the areas where the markets were located. Over the study period 36.7% (95% CI: 35.1, 38.3) of samples (N = 1315) tested HPAI H5 virus positive. Using General Estimation Equation approaches to account for repeated observations over time, we explored the association between HPAI H5 virus prevalence and potential risk factors. Markets where only live birds and carcasses were sold, but no slaughtering was conducted at or at the vicinity of the markets, had a significantly reduced chance of being positive for H5 virus (OR = 0.2, 95% CI 0.1-0.5). Also, markets, that used display tables for poultry carcasses made from wood, had reduced odds of being H5 virus positive (OR = 0.7, 95% CI 0.5-1.0), while having at least one duck sample included in the pool of samples collected at the market increased the chance of being H5 virus positive (OR = 5.7, 95% CI 3.6-9.2). Markets where parent stock was traded, were more at risk of being H5 virus positive compared to markets where broilers were traded. Finally, the human population density in the district, the average distance between markets and origins of poultry sold at markets and the total rainfall per month were all positively associated with higher H5 virus prevalence. In summary, our results highlight that a combination of factors related to trading and marketing processes and environmental pressures need to be considered to reduce H5 virus infection risk for customers at urban live bird markets. In particular, the relocation of slaughter areas to well-managed separate locations should be considered.

Live bird markets in Bangladesh as a potentially important source for Avian Influenza Virus transmission

Live bird markets (LBM) are important for trading poultry in many developing countries where they are being considered hotspots of Avian Influenza Virus (AIV) prevalence and contamination. An active surveillance for Avian Influenza Virus (AIV) was conducted on four species of LBM birds (chickens, ducks, quails and pigeons) from 10 of the largest LBM in Chittagong, Bangladesh, and two species of peri-domestic wild birds (house crow and Asian pied starling) in their direct vicinity from November 2012 until September 2016. Our aim was to identify the scale and annual pattern of AIV circulation in both the LBM birds and the two per-domestic wild bird species living in close proximity of the LBM. In the latter two species, the annual pattern in AIV antibody prevalence was additionally investigated. A total of 4770 LBM birds and 1119 peri-domestic wild birds were sampled. We used rt-PCR for detection of the AIV M-gene and AIV subtypes H5, H7 and H9 from swab samples. We used c-ELISA for AIV antibody detection from serum samples of peri-domestic wild birds. Average AIV prevalence among the four LBM species varied between 16 and 28%, whereas no AIV was detected in peri-domestic wild birds by rt-PCR. In all LBM species we found significantly higher AIV prevalence in winter compared to summer. A similar pattern was found in AIV antibody prevalence in peri-domestic wild birds feeding in the direct vicinity of LBM. For the subtypes of AIV investigated, we found a significantly higher proportion of AIV H5 in LBM chickens and H9 in LBM ducks. No H7 was detected in any of the investigated samples. We conclude that AIV and notably AIV H5 and H9 were circulating in the investigated LBM of Bangladesh with clear seasonality that matched the prevalence of AIV antibodies of peri-domestic wild birds. These patterns show great resemblance to the annual outbreak patterns in Bangladeshi poultry industry. Our data suggest considerable exchange of AIV within and among the four LBM bird species and peri-domestic wild birds, which likely contributes to the maintenance of the AIV problems in Bangladesh. Increasing biosecurity and notably reducing the direct and indirect mixing of various domestic bird species and peri-domestic wild birds and developing all-in-all-out selling systems with regular use of disinfectant are likely to reduce the risk of transmission and spread of AIV, including HPAI.

A large-scale study of a poultry trading network in Bangladesh: implications for control and surveillance of avian influenza viruses

BACKGROUND

Since its first report in 2007, avian influenza (AI) has been endemic in Bangladesh. While live poultry marketing is widespread throughout the country and known to influence AI dissemination and persistence, trading patterns have not been described. The aim of this study is to assess poultry trading practices and features of the poultry trading networks which could promote AI spread, and their potential implications for disease control and surveillance. Data on poultry trading practices was collected from 849 poultry traders during a cross-sectional survey in 138 live bird markets (LBMs) across 17 different districts of Bangladesh. The quantity and origins of traded poultry were assessed for each poultry type in surveyed LBMs. The network of contacts between farms and LBMs resulting from commercial movements of live poultry was constructed to assess its connectivity and to identify the key premises influencing it.

RESULTS

Poultry trading practices varied according to the size of the LBMs and to the type of poultry traded. Industrial broiler chickens, the most commonly traded poultry, were generally sold in LBMs close to their production areas, whereas ducks and backyard chickens were moved over longer distances, and their transport involved several intermediates. The poultry trading network composed of 445 nodes (73.2% were LBMs) was highly connected and disassortative. However, the removal of only 5.6% of the nodes (25 LBMs with the highest betweenness scores), reduced the network's connectedness, and the maximum size of output and input domains by more than 50%.

CONCLUSIONS

Poultry types need to be discriminated in order to understand the way in which poultry trading networks are shaped, and the level of risk of disease spread that these networks may promote. Knowledge of the network structure could be used to target control and surveillance interventions to a small number of LBMs.

The persistence of multiple strains of avian influenza in live bird markets

Multiple subtypes of avian influenza (AI) and novel reassortants are frequently isolated from live bird markets (LBMs). However, our understanding of the drivers of persistence of multiple AI subtypes is limited. We propose a stochastic model of AI transmission within an LBM that incorporates market size, turnover rate and the balance of direct versus environmental transmissibility. We investigate the relationship between these factors and the critical community size (CCS) for the persistence of single and multiple AI strains within an LBM. We fit different models of seeding from farms to two-strain surveillance data collected from Shantou, China. For a single strain and plausible estimates for continuous turnover rates and transmissibility, the CCS was approximately 11 800 birds, only a 4.2% increase in this estimate was needed to ensure persistence of the co-infecting strains (two strains in a single host). Precise values of CCS estimates were sensitive to changes in market turnover rate and duration of the latent period. Assuming a gradual daily sell rate of birds the estimated CCS was higher than when an instantaneous selling rate was assumed. We were able to reproduce prevalence dynamics similar to observations from a single market in China with infection seeded every 5-15 days, and a maximum non-seeding duration of 80 days. Our findings suggest that persistence of co-infections is more likely to be owing to sequential infection of single strains rather than ongoing transmission of both strains concurrently. In any given system for a fixed set of ecological and epidemiological conditions, there is an LBM size below which the risk of sustained co-circulation is low and which may suggest a clear policy opportunity to reduce the frequency of influenza co-infection in poultry.

A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Practices Exposing Humans to Avian Influenza Viruses, Their Prevalence, and Rationale

Almost all human infections by avian influenza viruses (AIVs) are transmitted from poultry. A systematic review was conducted to identify practices associated with human infections, their prevalence, and rationale. Observational studies were identified through database searches. Meta-analysis produced combined odds ratio estimates. The prevalence of practices and rationales for their adoptions were reported. Of the 48,217 records initially identified, 65 articles were included. Direct and indirect exposures to poultry were associated with infection for all investigated viral subtypes and settings. For the most frequently reported practices, association with infection seemed stronger in markets than households, for sick and dead than healthy poultry, and for H7N9 than H5N1. Practices were often described in general terms and their frequency and intensity of contact were not provided. The prevalence of practices was highly variable across studies, and no studies comprehensively explored reasons behind the adoption of practices. Combining epidemiological and targeted anthropological studies would increase the spectrum and detail of practices that could be investigated and should aim to provide insights into the rationale(s) for their existence. A better understanding of these rationales may help to design more realistic and acceptable preventive public health measures and messages.

Risk factors for avian influenza virus contamination of live poultry markets in Zhejiang, China during the 2015-2016 human influenza season

Live bird markets (LBMs), being a potential source of avian influenza virus, require effective environmental surveillance management. In our study, a total of 2865 environmental samples were collected from 292 LBMs during the 2015–2016 human influenza season from 10 cities in Zhejiang province, China. The samples were tested by real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Field investigations were carried out to investigate probable risk factors. Of the environmental samples, 1519 (53.0%) were contaminated by A subtype. The highest prevalence of the H9 subtype was 30.2%, and the frequencies of the H5 and H7 subtype were 9.3% and 17.3%, respectively. Hangzhou and Jinhua cities were contaminated more seriously than the others. The prevalence of H5/H7/H9 in drinking water samples was highest, at 50.9%, and chopping board swabs ranked second, at 49.3%. Duration of sales per day, types of live poultry, LBM location and the number of live poultry were the main risk factors for environmental contamination, according to logistic regression analysis. In conclusion, LBMs in Zhejiang were contaminated by avian influenza. Our study has provided clues for avian influenza prevention and control during the human influenza season, especially in areas where LBMs are not closed.

H7N9 and H5N1 avian influenza suitability models for China: accounting for new poultry and live-poultry markets distribution data

In the last two decades, two important avian influenza viruses infecting humans emerged in China, the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus in the late nineties, and the low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) H7N9 virus in 2013. China is home to the largest population of chickens (4.83 billion) and ducks (0.694 billion), representing, respectively 23.1 and 58.6% of the 2013 world stock, with a significant part of poultry sold through live-poultry markets potentially contributing to the spread of avian influenza viruses. Previous models have looked at factors associated with HPAI H5N1 in poultry and LPAI H7N9 in markets. However, these have not been studied and compared with a consistent set of predictor variables. Significant progress was recently made in the collection of poultry census and live-poultry market data, which are key potential factors in the distribution of both diseases. Here we compiled and reprocessed a new set of poultry census data and used these to analyse HPAI H5N1 and LPAI H7N9 distributions with boosted regression trees models. We found a limited impact of the improved poultry layers compared to models based on previous poultry census data, and a positive and previously unreported association between HPAI H5N1 outbreaks and the density of live-poultry markets. In addition, the models fitted for the HPAI H5N1 and LPAI H7N9 viruses predict a high risk of disease presence for the area around Shanghai and Hong Kong. The main difference in prediction between the two viruses concerned the suitability of HPAI H5N1 in north-China around the Yellow sea (outlined with Tianjin, Beijing, and Shenyang city) where LPAI H7N9 has not spread intensely.

An evaluation of biosecurity compliance levels and assessment of associated risk factors for highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 infection of live-bird-markets, Nigeria and Egypt

Live bird market (LBM) is integral component in the perpetuation of HPAI H5N1, while biosecurity is crucial and key to the prevention and control of infectious diseases. Biosecurity compliance level and risk factor assessments in 155LBMs was evaluated in Nigeria and Egypt through the administration of a 68-item biosecurity checklist, scored based on the modifications of previous qualitative data, and analysed for degree of compliance. LBMs were scored as "complied with a biosecurity item" if they had good-very good scores (4). All scores were coded and analysed using descriptive statistics and risk or protective factors were determined using univariable and multivariable logistic regression at p≤0.05. Trading of wild birds and other animal in the LBMs (Odd Ratio (OR)=34.90; p=0.01) and claims of hand disinfection after slaughter (OR=31.16; p=0.03) were significant risk factors while mandatory routine disinfection of markets (OR=0.13; p≤0.00), fencing and gates for live bird market (OR=0.02; p≤0.01) and hand washing after slaughter (OR=0.41; p≤0.05) were protective factors for and against the infection of Nigerian and Egyptian LBMs with the HPAI H5N1 virus. Almost all the LBMs complied poorly with most of the variables in the checklist (p≤0.05), but pathways to improved biosecurity in the LBMs existed. We concluded that the LBM operators play a critical role in the disruption of transmission of H5N1 virus infection through improved biosecurity and participatory epidemiology and multidisciplinary approach is needed.

Genetic and antigenic characterization of H5, H6 and H9 avian influenza viruses circulating in live bird markets with intervention in the center part of Vietnam

A total of 3,045 environmental samples and oropharyngeal and cloacal swabs from apparently healthy poultry have been collected at three live bird markets (LBMs) at which practices were applied to reduce avian influenza (AI) virus transmission (intervention LBMs) and six conventional LBMs (non-intervention LBMs) in Thua Thien Hue province in 2014 to evaluate the efficacy of the intervention LBMs. The 178 AI viruses, including H3 (19 viruses), H4 (2), H5 (8), H6 (30), H9 (114), and H11 (5), were isolated from domestic ducks, muscovy ducks, chickens, and the environment. The prevalence of AI viruses in intervention LBMs (6.1%; 95% CI: 5.0-7.5) was similar to that in non-intervention LBMs (5.6%; 95% CI: 4.5-6.8; χ(2)=0.532; df=1; P=0.53) in the study area. Eight H5N6 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses were isolated from apparently healthy ducks, muscovy ducks, and an environmental sample in an intervention LBM. The hemagglutinin genes of the H5N6 HPAI viruses belonged to the genetic clade 2.3.4.4, and the antigenicity of the H5N6 HPAI viruses differed from the H5N1 HPAI viruses previously circulating in Vietnam. Phylogenetic and antigenic analyses of the H6 and H9 viruses isolated in both types of LBMs revealed that they were closely related to the viruses isolated from domestic birds in China, Group II of H6 viruses and Y280 lineage of H9 viruses. These results indicate that the interventions currently applied in LBMs are insufficient to control AI. A risk analysis should be conducted to identify the key factors contributing to AI virus prevalence in intervention LBMs.

Investigating poultry trade patterns to guide avian influenza surveillance and control: a case study in Vietnam

Live bird markets are often the focus of surveillance activities monitoring avian influenza viruses (AIV) circulating in poultry. However, in order to ensure a high sensitivity of virus detection and effectiveness of management actions, poultry management practices features influencing AIV dynamics need to be accounted for in the design of surveillance programmes. In order to address this knowledge gap, a cross-sectional survey was conducted through interviews with 791 traders in 18 Vietnamese live bird markets. Markets greatly differed according to the sources from which poultry was obtained, and their connections to other markets through the movements of their traders. These features, which could be informed based on indicators that are easy to measure, suggest that markets could be used as sentinels for monitoring virus strains circulating in specific segments of the poultry production sector. AIV spread within markets was modelled. Due to the high turn-over of poultry, viral amplification was likely to be minimal in most of the largest markets. However, due to the large number of birds being introduced each day, and challenges related to cleaning and disinfection, environmental accumulation of viruses at markets may take place, posing a threat to the poultry production sector and to public health.

Who Is Spreading Avian Influenza in the Moving Duck Flock Farming Network of Indonesia?

Duck populations are considered to be a reservoir of Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus H5N1 in some agricultural production systems, as they are able to shed the virus for several days without clinical signs. Countries endemically affected with HPAI in Asia are characterised by production systems where ducks are fed on post-harvest spilled rice. During this scavenging process it is common for ducks to come into contact with other duck flocks or wild birds, thereby providing opportunities for virus spread. Effective risk management for HPAI has been significantly compromised by a limited understanding of management of moving duck flocks in these countries, despite of a small number of recent investigations. Here, for the first time, we described the management of moving duck flocks and the structure of the moving duck flock network in quantitative terms so that factors influencing the risk of HPAIV transmission can be identified. By following moving duck flock farmers over a period of 6 months in Java, Indonesia, we were able to describe the movement of flocks and to characterise the network of various types of actors associated with the production system. We used these data to estimate the basic reproductive number for HPAI virus spread. Our results suggest that focussing HPAI prevention measures on duck flocks alone will not be sufficient. Instead, the role of transporters of moving duck flocks, hatcheries and rice paddy owners, in the spread of the HPAI virus needs to be recognised.

Human exposure to live poultry and psychological and behavioral responses to influenza A(H7N9), China

Exposure was common in urban and rural areas and remains a potential risk factor for human infection.

To investigate human exposure to live poultry and changes in risk perception and behavior after the April 2013 influenza A(H7N9) outbreak in China, we surveyed 2,504 urban residents in 5 cities and 1,227 rural residents in 4 provinces and found that perceived risk for influenza A(H7N9) was low. The highest rate of exposure to live poultry was reported in Guangzhou, where 47% of those surveyed reported visiting a live poultry market >1 times in the previous year. Most (77%) urban respondents reported that they visited live markets less often after influenza A(H7N9) cases were first identified in China in March 2013, but only 30% supported permanent closure of the markets to control the epidemic. In rural areas, 48% of respondents reported that they raised backyard poultry. Exposure to live commercial and private poultry is common in urban and rural China and remains a potential risk factor for human infection with novel influenza viruses.

Live bird markets characterization and trading network analysis in Mali: Implications for the surveillance and control of avian influenza and Newcastle disease

Live bird markets (LBMs) play an important role in the transmission of avian influenza (AI) and Newcastle disease (ND) viruses in poultry. Our study had two objectives: (1) characterizing LBMs in Mali with a focus on practices influencing the risk of transmission of AI and ND, and (2) identifying which LBMs should be targeted for surveillance and control based on properties of the live poultry trade network. Two surveys were conducted in 2009-2010: a descriptive study in all 96 LBMs of an area encompassing approximately 98% of the Malian poultry population and a network analysis study in Sikasso county, the main poultry supplying county for the capital city Bamako. Regarding LBMs' characteristics, risk factors for the presence of AI and ND viruses (being open every day, more than 2 days before a bird is sold, absence of zoning to segregate poultry-related work flow areas, waste removal or cleaning and disinfecting less frequently than on a daily basis, trash disposal of dead birds and absence of manure processing) were present in 80-100% of the LBMs. Furthermore, LBMs tended to have wide catchment areas because of consumers' preference for village poultry meat, thereby involving a large number of villages in their supply chain. In the poultry trade network from/to Sikasso county, 182 traders were involved and 685 links were recorded among 159 locations. The network had a heterogeneous degree distribution and four hubs were identified based on measures of in-degrees, out-degrees and betweenness: the markets of Medine and Wayerma and the fairs of Farakala and Niena. These results can be used to design biosecurity-improvement interventions and to optimize the prevention, surveillance and control of transmissible poultry diseases in Malian LBMs. Further studies should investigate potential drivers (seasonality, prices) of the poultry trade network and the acceptability of biosecurity and behavior-change recommendations in the Malian socio-cultural context.

Interventions to reduce zoonotic and pandemic risks from avian influenza in Asia

Novel influenza viruses continue to emerge, posing zoonotic and potentially pandemic threats, such as with avian influenza A H7N9. Although closure of live poultry markets (LPMs) in mainland China stopped H7N9 outbreaks temporarily, closures are difficult to sustain, in view of poultry production and marketing systems in China. In this Personal View, we summarise interventions taken in mainland China, and provide evidence for other more sustainable but effective interventions in the live poultry market systems that reduce risk of zoonotic influenza including rest days, and banning live poultry in markets overnight. Separation of live ducks and geese from land-based (ie, non-aquatic) poultry in LPM systems can reduce the risk of emergence of zoonotic and epizootic viruses at source. In view of evidence that H7N9 is now endemic in over half of the provinces in mainland China and will continue to cause recurrent zoonotic disease in the winter months, such interventions should receive high priority in China and other Asian countries at risk of H7N9 through cross-border poultry movements. Such generic measures are likely to reduce known and future threats of zoonotic influenza.

Identification and genetic analysis of H3N8 subtype influenza viruses isolated from domestic pigeons in Central China

A novel strain of H3N8 influenza virus was isolated from domestic pigeons during the avian influenza virus (AIV) surveillance in wet markets in Anhui, China, during 2013. The virus was characterized by whole-genome sequencing with subsequent genetic comparison and phylogenetic analysis. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that the NA gene of AIV mapped to the North American lineage, and the remaining seven genes belong to a Eurasian lineage. These findings indicated that this H3N8 virus is a novel nature reassortant virus. Comparison of the hemagglutinin amino acid sequences indicated 9 substitutions. One substitution caused the loss of a potential glycosylation site, and six substitutions were not previously observed in avian H3 isolates. Q226 and T228 at the receptor binding sites suggested that Anhui-08 preferentially binds to a-2,3-linked sialic acid receptors, and the cleavage site sequence showed a low pathogenic feature. Animal experiments further confirmed that A/pigeon/Anhui/08/2013 (H3N8) is low or in pigeons. The results improve our understanding of these viruses as they evolve and also provide important information to aid ongoing risk assessment analyses because these zoonotic influenza viruses continue to circulate and adapt to new hosts.

Detection and Genetic Characteristics of H9N2 Avian Influenza Viruses from Live Poultry Markets in Hunan Province, China

H9N2 avian influenza viruses (AIVs) are highly prevalent and of low pathogenicity in domestic poultry. These viruses show a high genetic compatibility with other subtypes of AIVs and have been involved in the genesis of H5N1, H7N9 and H10N8 viruses causing severe infection in humans. The first case of human infection with H9N2 viruses in Hunan province of China have been confirmed in November 2013 and identified that H9N2 viruses from live poultry markets (LPMs) near the patient’s house could be the source of infection. However, the prevalence, distribution and genetic characteristics of H9N2 viruses in LPMs all over the province are not clear. We collected and tested 3943 environmental samples from 380 LPMs covering all 122 counties/districts of Hunan province from February to April, 2014. A total of 618 (15.7%) samples were H9 subtype positive and 200 (52.6%) markets in 98 (80.3%) counties/districts were contaminated with H9 subtype AIVs. We sequenced the entire coding sequences of the genomes of eleven H9N2 isolates from environmental samples. Phylogenetic analysis showed that the gene sequences of the H9N2 AIVs exhibited high homology (94.3%-100%). All eleven viruses were in a same branch in the phylogenetic trees and belonged to a same genotype. No gene reassortment had been found. Molecular analysis demonstrated that all the viruses had typical molecular characteristics of contemporary avian H9N2 influenza viruses. Continued surveillance of AIVs in LPMs is warranted for identification of further viral evolution and novel reassortants with pandemic potential.

Investigation of avian influenza virus in poultry and wild birds due to novel avian-origin influenza A(H10N8) in Nanchang City, China

Multiple reassortment events within poultry and wild birds had resulted in the establishment of another novel avian influenza A(H10N8) virus, and finally resulted in human death in Nanchang, China. However, there was a paucity of information on the prevalence of avian influenza virus in poultry and wild birds in Nanchang area. We investigated avian influenza virus in poultry and wild birds from live poultry markets, poultry countyards, delivery vehicles, and wild-bird habitats in Nanchang. We analyzed 1036 samples from wild birds and domestic poultry collected from December 2013 to February 2014. Original biological samples were tested for the presence of avian influenza virus using specific primer and probe sets of H5, H7, H9, H10 and N8 subtypes by real-time RT-PCR. In our analysis, the majority (97.98%) of positive samples were from live poultry markets. Among the poultry samples from chickens and ducks, AIV prevalence was 26.05 and 30.81%, respectively. Mixed infection of different HA subtypes was very common. Additionally, H10 subtypes coexistence with N8 was the most prevalent agent during the emergence of H10N8. This event illustrated a long-term surveillance was so helpful for pandemic preparedness and response.

Description and analysis of the poultry trading network in the Lake Alaotra region, Madagascar: implications for the surveillance and control of Newcastle disease

Madagascar's 36.5-million-head poultry industry holds a foremost place in its economy and the livelihood of its people. Unfortunately, regular Newcastle disease outbreaks associated with high mortality causes high losses for smallholders and threatens their livelihood. Therefore, Madagascar is seeking concrete, achievable and sustainable methods for the surveillance and the control of Newcastle disease. In this paper, we present and analyze the results of a field study conducted in Madagascar between December 2009 and December 2010. The study area was the Lac Alaotra region, a landlocked area in the north-eastern part of the country's center. Poultry trading is suspected of playing a major role in the spread of avian diseases, especially in developing countries characterized by many live-bird markets and middlemen. Therefore, the goals of our study were to: (i) describe and analyze smallholders' poultry trading network in the Lake Alaotra region using social network analysis; (ii) assess the role of the network in the spread of Newcastle disease; and (iii) propose the implementation of a targeted disease surveillance based on the characteristics of the poultry trading network. We focused our field study on the harvesting of two data sets. The first is a complete description of the poultry trading network in the landlocked area of Lac Alaotra, including a description of the poultry movements between groups of villages. The second set of data measures the occurrence of outbreaks in the same area by combining a participatory approach with an event-based surveillance method. These data were used to determine the attributes of the network, and to statistically assess the association between the position of nodes and the occurrence of outbreaks. By using social network analysis techniques combined with a classification method and a logistic model, we finally identified 3 nodes (set of villages), of the 387 in the initial network, to focus on for surveillance and control in the Lac Alaotra area. This result is of primary importance in the ongoing efforts to effectively improve the wellbeing of people in the region.

Predicting the risk of avian influenza A H7N9 infection in live-poultry markets across Asia

Two epidemic waves of an avian influenza A (H7N9) virus have so far affected China. Most human cases have been attributable to poultry exposure at live-poultry markets, where most positive isolates were sampled. The potential geographic extent of potential re-emerging epidemics is unknown, as are the factors associated with it. Using newly assembled data sets of the locations of 8,943 live-poultry markets in China and maps of environmental correlates, we develop a statistical model that accurately predicts the risk of H7N9 market infection across Asia. Local density of live-poultry markets is the most important predictor of H7N9 infection risk in markets, underscoring their key role in the spatial epidemiology of H7N9, alongside other poultry, land cover and anthropogenic predictor variables. Identification of areas in Asia with high suitability for H7N9 infection enhances our capacity to target biosurveillance and control, helping to restrict the spread of this important disease.

Effect of closure of live poultry markets on poultry-to-person transmission of avian influenza A H7N9 virus: an ecological study

BACKGROUND

Transmission of the novel avian influenza A H7N9 virus seems to be predominantly between poultry and people. In the major Chinese cities of Shanghai, Hangzhou, Huzhou, and Nanjing--where most human cases of infection have occurred--live poultry markets (LPMs) were closed in April, 2013, soon after the initial outbreak, as a precautionary public health measure. Our objective was to quantify the effect of LPM closure in these cities on poultry-to-person transmission of avian influenza A H7N9 virus.

METHODS

We obtained information about every laboratory-confirmed human case of avian influenza A H7N9 virus infection reported in the four cities by June 7, 2013, from a database built by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. We used data for age, sex, location, residence type (rural or urban area), and dates of illness onset. We obtained information about LPMs from official sources. We constructed a statistical model to explain the patterns in incidence of cases reported in each city on the basis of the assumption of a constant force of infection before LPM closure, and a different constant force of infection after closure. We fitted the model with Markov chain Monte Carlo methods.

FINDINGS

85 human cases of avian influenza A H7N9 virus infection were reported in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Huzhou, and Nanjing by June 7, 2013, of which 60 were included in our main analysis. Closure of LPMs reduced the mean daily number of infections by 99% (95% credibility interval 93-100%) in Shanghai, by 99% (92-100%) in Hangzhou, by 97% (68-100%) in Huzhou, and by 97% (81-100%) in Nanjing. Because LPMs were the predominant source of exposure to avian influenza A H7N9 virus for confirmed cases in these cities, we estimated that the mean incubation period was 3·3 days (1·4-5·7).

INTERPRETATION

LPM closures were effective in the control of human risk of avian influenza A H7N9 virus infection in the spring of 2013. In the short term, LPM closure should be rapidly implemented in areas where the virus is identified in live poultry or people. In the long term, evidence-based discussions and deliberations about the role of market rest days and central slaughtering of all live poultry should be renewed.

FUNDING

Ministry of Science and Technology, China; Research Fund for the Control of Infectious Disease; Hong Kong University Grants Committee; China-US Collaborative Program on Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases; Harvard Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics; and the US National Institutes of Health.

Using risk assessment as part of a systems approach to the control and prevention of HPAIV H5N1

Since its emergence in China in 1996, highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H5N1 has spread across Asia, Africa, and Europe. Countries had to promptly implement control and prevention measures. Numerous research and capacity building initiatives were conducted in the affected regions to improve the capacity of national animal health services to support the development of risk-based mitigation strategies. This paper reviews and discusses risk assessments initiated in several South-East Asian and African countries under one of these projects. Despite important data gaps, the risk assessment results improved the ability of policy makers to design appropriate risk management policies. Disease risk was strongly influenced by various human behavioral factors. The ongoing circulation of HPAIV H5N1 in several Asian countries and in Egypt, despite major disease control efforts, supports the need for an interdisciplinary approach to development of tailored risk management policies, in accordance with the EcoHealth paradigm and the broad concept of risk governance. In particular, active stakeholders engagement and integration of economic and social studies into the policy making process are needed to optimize compliance and sustainable behavioral changes, thereby increasing the effectiveness of mitigation strategies.

Seroprevalence of antibodies against highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) virus among poultry workers in Bangladesh, 2009

We conducted a cross-sectional study in 2009 to determine the seroprevalence and risk factors for highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) [HPAI H5N1] virus antibodies among poultry workers at farms and live bird markets with confirmed/suspected poultry outbreaks during 2009 in Bangladesh. We tested sera by microneutralization assay using A/Bangladesh/207095/2008 (H5N1; clade 2.2.2) virus with confirmation by horse red blood cell hemagglutination inhibition and H5-specific Western blot assays. We enrolled 212 workers from 87 farms and 210 workers from three live bird markets. One hundred and two farm workers (48%) culled poultry. One hundred and ninety-three farm workers (91%) and 178 market workers (85%) reported direct contact with poultry that died during a laboratory confirmed HPAI H5N1 poultry farm outbreak or market poultry die-offs from suspected HPAI H5N1. Despite exposure to sick poultry, no farm or market poultry workers were seropositive for HPAI H5N1 virus antibodies (95% confidence interval 0-1%).