Influence of birth rates and transmission rates on the global seasonality of rotavirus incidence

Impact of rotavirus vaccination in Malawi from 2012 to 2022 compared to model predictions before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic

Background

Rotarix® rotavirus vaccine was introduced into the Malawi national immunization program in October 2012. We used a previously developed mathematical models to estimate overall vaccine effectiveness over a 10-year period following rotavirus vaccine introduction.

Methods

We analyzed data on children <5 years old hospitalized with acute gastroenteritis in Blantyre, Malawi from January 2012 to June 2022, compared to pre-vaccination data. We estimated vaccine coverage before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic using data from rotavirus-negative children. We compared model predictions for the weekly number of rotavirus-associated gastroenteritis (RVGE) cases to the observed number by age to validate model predictions and estimate overall vaccine effectiveness.

Results

The number of RVGE and rotavirus-negative acute gastroenteritis cases declined substantially following vaccine introduction. Vaccine coverage among rotavirus-negative controls was >90% with two doses by July 2014, and declined to a low of ~80% in October 2020, before returning to pre-pandemic levels by July 2021. Our models captured the post-vaccination trends in RVGE incidence, with 5.4% to 19.4% of observed weekly RVGE cases falling outside of the 95% prediction intervals. Comparing observed RVGE cases to the model-predicted incidence without vaccination, overall vaccine effectiveness was estimated to be 36.0% (95% prediction interval: 33.6%, 39.9%) peaking in 2014 and was highest in infants (52.5%; 95% prediction interval: 50.1%, 54.9%).

Conclusions

Overall effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Malawi is modest despite high vaccine coverage and has plateaued since 2016. Our mathematical models provide a validated platform for assessing strategies to improve rotavirus vaccine impact.

Urban wastewater-based epidemiology for multi-viral pathogen surveillance in the Valencian region, Spain

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has lately arised as a promising tool for monitoring and tracking viral pathogens in communities. In this study, we analysed WBE's role as a multi-pathogen surveillance strategy to detect the presence of several viral illness causative agents. Thus, an epidemiological study was conducted from October 2021 to February 2023 to estimate the weekly levels of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), Respiratory Syncytial virus (RSV), and Influenza A virus (IAV) in influent wastewater samples (n = 69). In parallel, a one-year study (October 2021 to October 2022) was performed to assess the presence of pathogenic human enteric viruses. Besides, monitoring of proposed viral fecal contamination indicators crAssphage and Pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV) was also assessed, along with plaque counting of somatic coliphages. Genetic material of rotavirus (RV), human astrovirus (HAStV), and norovirus genogroup I (GI) and GII was found in almost all samples, while hepatitis A and E viruses (HAV and HEV) only tested positive in 3.77 % and 22.64 % of the samples, respectively. No seasonal patterns were overall found for enteric viruses, although RVs had a peak prevalence in the winter months. All samples tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA, with a mean concentration of 5.43 log genome copies per liter (log GC/L). The tracking of the circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) was performed by both duplex RT-qPCR and next generation sequencing (NGS). Both techniques reliably showed how the dominant VOC transitioned from Delta to Omicron during two weeks in Spain in December 2021. RSV and IAV viruses peaked in winter months with mean concentrations 6.40 and 4.10 log GC/L, respectively. Moreover, the three selected respiratory viruses strongly correlated with reported clinical data when normalised by wastewater physico-chemical parameters and presented weaker correlations when normalising sewage concentration levels with crAssphage or somatic coliphages titers. Finally, predictive models were generated for each respiratory virus, confirming high reliability on WBE data as an early-warning system and communities illness monitoring system. Overall, this study presents WBE as an optimal tool for multi-pathogen tracking reflecting viral circulation and diseases trends within a selected area, its value as a multi-pathogen early-warning tool stands out due to its public health interest.

Predicting indirect effects of rotavirus vaccination programs on rotavirus mortality among children in 112 countries

Rotavirus is a leading cause of diarrhea deaths in children, particularly in low-to-middle income countries (LMICs). Licensed rotavirus vaccines provide strong direct protection, but their indirect effect-the protection due to reduced transmission-is not fully understood. We aimed to quantify the population-level effects of rotavirus vaccination and identify factors that drive indirect protection. We used an SIR-like transmission model to estimate the indirect effects of vaccination on rotavirus deaths in 112 LMICs. We performed a regression analysis to identify predictors of indirect effect magnitude (linear regression) and the occurrence of negative indirect effects (logistic regression). Indirect effects contributed to vaccine impacts in all regions, with effect sizes 8-years post-vaccine introduction ranging from 16.9% in the WHO European region to 1.0% in the Western Pacific region. Indirect effect estimates were higher in countries with higher under-5 mortality, higher vaccine coverage, and lower birth rates. Of the 112 countries analyzed, 18 (16%) had at least 1 year with a predicted negative indirect effect. Negative indirect effects were more common in countries with higher birth rate, lower under-5 mortality and lower vaccine coverage. Rotavirus vaccination may have a larger impact than would be expected from direct effects alone, but the impact of these indirect effects is expected to vary by country.

Spatiotemporal Trends in Norovirus Outbreaks in the United States, 2009-2019

BACKGROUND

Globally, noroviruses cause infections year-round but have recognized winter seasonality in the Northern Hemisphere and yearly variations in incidence. With candidate norovirus vaccines in development, understanding temporal and geographic trends in norovirus disease is important to inform potential vaccination strategies and evaluate vaccine impact.

METHODS

We analyzed data from the National Outbreak Reporting System (NORS) and CaliciNet on single-state norovirus outbreaks that occurred during August 2009-July 2019 in the contiguous United States. We defined norovirus season onset and offset as the weeks by which 10% and 90% of norovirus outbreaks in a surveillance year occurred, respectively, and duration as the difference in weeks between onset and offset. We compared norovirus seasons across surveillance years and geographic regions.

RESULTS

During August 2009-July 2019, 24 995 single-state norovirus outbreaks were reported to NORS and/or CaliciNet. Nationally, the median norovirus season duration was 24 weeks, with onset occurring between October and December and offset occurring between April and May. Across all years combined, we observed a west-to-east trend in seasonality, with the earliest onset (October) and latest offset (May) occurring in western regions and the latest onset (December) and earliest offset (April) occurring in northeastern regions.

CONCLUSIONS

Timing and duration of the US norovirus season varied annually but generally occurred during October-May. Norovirus wintertime seasonality was less distinct in western regions and was progressively more pronounced moving east. Further understanding the drivers of spatiotemporal dynamics of norovirus could provide insights into factors that promote virus transmission and help guide future interventions.

Cost-benefit analysis of rotavirus vaccine included in the national immunization program in China

BACKGROUND

Globally, rotavirus is a leading cause of severe acute gastroenteritis among children aged under 5 years and has a significant economic cost. Currently, rotavirus vaccines are only included in the private market in China. This study aimed to assess the cost-benefit of including a three-dose rotavirus vaccine in China's National Immunization Program (NIP).

METHODS

A decision tree Markov model was constructed to evaluate the cost-benefit of universal immunization with three doses of rotavirus vaccine for a 2019 birth cohort of Chinese children. Costs of the universal vaccination program included vaccine price, vaccine wastage, vaccine administration, and indirect costs. All costs were discounted at 3 % per year and converted from 2019 Chinese Yuan to 2019 USD using the 2019 exchange rate.

RESULTS

For the 2019 birth cohort of Chinese infants, inclusion of RotaTeq in NIP was estimated to prevent 5,677,911 cases of rotavirus infection, with net savings of $1.1 billion in total societal costs. A cost of $17.55 per vaccine dose was the threshold at which inclusion of rotavirus vaccine in NIP would be cost-saving.

CONCLUSIONS

Introducing rotavirus vaccine into the China NIP would have significant costs from a societal perspective at the current private market price.

Rotavirus C infections in asymptomatic piglets in India, 2009-2013: genotyping and phylogenetic analysis of all genomic segments

Asymptomatic infection with rotavirus C (RVC) was observed in pigs in India, with a detection rate of 20%. Sequencing of the VP6, VP7, and NSP4 genes of RVC strains identified the genotypes I7/I10, G1, and E5, respectively. Full genome sequencing of one of these strains revealed that the genotypes of the VP4, VP1, VP2, VP3, NSP1, NSP2, NSP3, and NSP5 genes were P1, R1, C1, M3, A1, N5, T5, and H1, respectively. The detection of porcine RVC strains at two different locations in India at different time points strongly suggests that they are circulating continuously in the pig population through asymptomatic infections.

Rotavirus epidemiology and genotype distribution in hospitalised children, Greece, 2008 to 2020: A prospective multicentre study

BackgroundTwo rotavirus (RV) vaccines were licensed in Greece in late 2006 and included in the national immunisation programme in 2012.AimTo study the epidemiology and genotype distribution of RV in children during the post-vaccination period and assess the impact of increased vaccination coverage.MethodsIn a prospective multicentre hospital-based study, hospitalised children (≤ 16 years) with an RV-positive faecal sample were recruited. Epidemiological and genotyping analyses were performed; periods of low (2008-12) and moderate (2012-20) RV vaccination coverage were compared. Statistical analysis was performed with a chi-squared or Mann-Whitney U test and logistic regression.ResultsA total of 3,874 children (55.6% male; n = 2,153) with median age of 1.4 years (IQR: 0.5-3.3) were studied during 2008-20. Most RV-infected children were aged ≤ 3 years (72.2%) and hospitalised during December-May (69.1%). Common RV genotypes (G1P[8], G2P[4], G3P[8], G4P[8], G9P[8], G12P[8]) were detected in 92.2% of samples; G-P combinations with prevalence above 1% were G4P[8] (44.1%), G1P[8] (25.4%), G2P[4] (14.9%), G9P[8] (3.5%), G12P[8] (2.2%), G3P[8] (2.1%), other (4.3%) and mixed (3.5%). Of all samples, 97.6% were homotypic or partially heterotypic to vaccines' genotypes. With moderate vaccination coverage, the seasonal peak was detected earlier, children were older and partially or fully heterotypic genotypes were increased (p < 0.001).ConclusionsIn the era of moderate RV vaccination coverage in Greece, epidemiology of RV in hospitalised children seemed to change. However, most circulating genotypes remain homotypic or partially heterotypic to RV vaccines. Continuous epidemiological surveillance and genotyping are important to monitor possible changes arising from RV vaccines' implementation.

Rotavirus epidemiology and genotype distribution in hospitalised children, Greece, 2008 to 2020: A prospective multicentre study

BackgroundTwo rotavirus (RV) vaccines were licensed in Greece in late 2006 and included in the national immunisation programme in 2012.AimTo study the epidemiology and genotype distribution of RV in children during the post-vaccination period and assess the impact of increased vaccination coverage.MethodsIn a prospective multicentre hospital-based study, hospitalised children (≤ 16 years) with an RV-positive faecal sample were recruited. Epidemiological and genotyping analyses were performed; periods of low (2008-12) and moderate (2012-20) RV vaccination coverage were compared. Statistical analysis was performed with a chi-squared or Mann-Whitney U test and logistic regression.ResultsA total of 3,874 children (55.6% male; n = 2,153) with median age of 1.4 years (IQR: 0.5-3.3) were studied during 2008-20. Most RV-infected children were aged ≤ 3 years (72.2%) and hospitalised during December-May (69.1%). Common RV genotypes (G1P[8], G2P[4], G3P[8], G4P[8], G9P[8], G12P[8]) were detected in 92.2% of samples; G-P combinations with prevalence above 1% were G4P[8] (44.1%), G1P[8] (25.4%), G2P[4] (14.9%), G9P[8] (3.5%), G12P[8] (2.2%), G3P[8] (2.1%), other (4.3%) and mixed (3.5%). Of all samples, 97.6% were homotypic or partially heterotypic to vaccines' genotypes. With moderate vaccination coverage, the seasonal peak was detected earlier, children were older and partially or fully heterotypic genotypes were increased (p < 0.001).ConclusionsIn the era of moderate RV vaccination coverage in Greece, epidemiology of RV in hospitalised children seemed to change. However, most circulating genotypes remain homotypic or partially heterotypic to RV vaccines. Continuous epidemiological surveillance and genotyping are important to monitor possible changes arising from RV vaccines' implementation.

The influence of demographic and meteorological factors on temporal patterns of rotavirus infection in Dhaka, Bangladesh

To quantify the potential impact of rotavirus vaccines and identify strategies to improve vaccine performance in Bangladesh, a better understanding of the drivers of pre-vaccination rotavirus patterns is required. We developed and fitted mathematical models to 23 years (1990-2012) of weekly rotavirus surveillance data from Dhaka with and without incorporating long-term and seasonal variation in the birth rate and meteorological factors. We performed external model validation using data between 2013 and 2019 from the regions of Dhaka and Matlab. The models showed good agreement with the observed age distribution of rotavirus cases and captured the observed shift in seasonal patterns of rotavirus hospitalizations from biannual to annual peaks. The declining long-term trend in the birth rate in Bangladesh was the key driver of the observed shift from biannual to annual winter rotavirus patterns. Meteorological indices were also important: a 1°C, 1% and 1 mm increase in diurnal temperature range, surface water presence and degree of wetness were associated with a 19%, 3.9% and 0.6% increase in the transmission rate, respectively. The model demonstrated reasonable predictions for both Dhaka and Matlab, and can be used to evaluate the impact of rotavirus vaccination in Bangladesh against changing patterns of disease incidence.

Rotaviruses: From Pathogenesis to Disease Control—A Critical Review

Since their first recognition in human cases about four decades ago, rotaviruses have remained the leading cause of acute severe dehydrating diarrhea among infants and young children worldwide. The WHO prequalification of oral rotavirus vaccines (ORV) a decade ago and its introduction in many countries have yielded a significant decline in the global burden of the disease, although not without challenges to achieving global effectiveness. Poised by the unending malady of rotavirus diarrhea and the attributable death cases in developing countries, we provide detailed insights into rotavirus biology, exposure pathways, cellular receptors and pathogenesis, host immune response, epidemiology, and vaccination. Additionally, recent developments on the various host, viral and environmental associated factors impacting ORV performance in low-and middle-income countries (LMIC) are reviewed and their significance assessed. In addition, we review the advances in nonvaccine strategies (probiotics, candidate anti-rotaviral drugs, breastfeeding) to disease prevention and management.

Incidence, Clinical Characteristics, and Genotype Distribution of Rotavirus in a Neonatal Intensive Care Unit 5 Years After Introducing Rotavirus Vaccine

BACKGROUND

Rotavirus (RV) is a common cause of viral gastroenteritis in children worldwide. We aimed to investigate the incidence, symptoms, and genotype of RV infection in a neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) in South Korea 5 years after the introduction of RV vaccination to evaluate its effect on newborn infants.

METHODS

A total of 431 fecal specimens were collected from patients admitted to NICU between April 20, 2012 and September 10, 2013. Enzyme-linked immunoassays were used to detect RV antigen. Nested multiplex polymerase chain reaction was used for genotyping.

RESULTS

The overall incidence of RV infection was 43.9% and was significantly higher in preterm infants, infants born in the study hospital, low birth weight infants, and cesarean births (P < 0.05). Symptoms of diarrhea, poor feeding, abdominal distension, and apnea were significantly higher in infants with RV infection than those without infection. RV infection gradually increased depending on infant care at home, postpartum clinic, or hospital (26.0, 45.1, and 60.2%, respectively; P = 0.000). The dominant RV genotype in the NICU was G4P[6] at 95.4%.

CONCLUSION

Current RV vaccines did not affect the incidence of RV infection in newborn and preterm infants in the NICU. Most RV-positive patients in the NICU had symptoms, and the incidence of RV infection was relatively higher in hospitals and postpartum clinics with group life than home. The dominant RV genotype was G4P[6] across study groups.

Impact of rotavirus vaccination on rotavirus hospitalizations in Taiwanese children

In 2006, two rotavirus vaccines were licensed in Taiwan but were not added to the national immunization schedule. National Health Insurance data from 2003 through 2017 were used to compare rotavirus-associated pediatric hospitalizations before and after vaccine introduction. Rotavirus hospitalization rates among children < 5 years of age significantly declined by 24% (95% confidence interval [CI] 23 - 25%) in post-vaccine compared to pre-vaccine rotavirus seasons. Rotavirus hospitalization rates declined by 42% (95% CI 39 - 44%) among infants < 12 months of age, and by 38% (95% CI 36 - 40%) among children 12 - 23 months of age. These findings suggest that, despite not being included in the national immunization schedule, rotavirus vaccines had a measurable impact on reducing rotavirus hospitalization burden among Taiwanese children.

Temperature and risk of infectious diarrhea: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Infectious diarrhea (ID) is an intestinal infectious disease including cholera, typhoid and paratyphoid fever, bacterial and amebic dysentery, and other infectious diarrhea. There are many studies that have explored the relationship between ambient temperature and the spread of infectious diarrhea, but the results are inconsistent. It is necessary to systematically evaluate the impact of temperature on the incidence of ID. This study was based on the PRISMA statement to report this systematic review. We conducted literature searches from CNKI, VIP databases, CBM, PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and other databases. The number registered in PROSPERO is CRD42021225472. After searching a total of 4915 articles in the database and references, 27 studies were included. The number of people involved exceeded 7.07 million. The overall result demonstrated when the temperature rises, the risk of infectious diarrhea increases significantly (RR_cumulative=1.42, 95%CI: 1.07-1.88, RR_single-day=1.08, 95%CI: 1.03-1.14). Subgroup analysis found the effect of temperature on the bacillary dysentery group (RR_cumulative=1.85, 95%CI: 1.48-2.30) and unclassified diarrhea groups (RR_cumulative=1.18, 95%CI: 0.59-2.34). The result of the single-day effect subgroup analysis was similar to the result of the cumulative effect. And the sensitivity analysis proved that the results were robust. This systematic review and meta-analysis support that temperature will increase the risk of ID, which is helpful for ID prediction and early warning in the future.

Re-evaluation of population-level protection conferred by a rotavirus vaccine using the 'fried-egg' approach in a rural setting in Bangladesh

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The “fried-egg” analytic approach was applied to a cluster randomized trial (CRT).

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Overall analysis failed to reveal rotavirus vaccine (RV) herd protection.

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Same approach unmasked herd protection of other enteric vaccines failed for RV.

Background

Vaccine herd protection assessed in a cluster-randomized trial (CRT) may be masked by disease transmission into the cluster from outside. However, herd effects can be unmasked using a ‘fried-egg’ approach whereby the analysis, restricted to the innermost households of clusters, ‘yolk’, creates an insulating ‘egg-white’ periphery. This approach has been demonstrated to unmask vaccine herd protection in reanalyses of cholera and typhoid vaccine CRTs. We applied this approach to an earlier CRT in Bangladesh of rotavirus vaccine (RV) whose overall analysis had failed to detect herd protection. Herein we present the results of this analysis.

Methods

In the study area, infants in 142 villages were randomized to receive two doses of RV with routine EPI vaccines (RV villages) or only EPI vaccines (non-RV villages). We analyzed RV protection against acute rotavirus diarrhoea for the entire cluster (P100) and P75, P50, P25 clusters, representing 75%, 50% and 25% of the innermost households for each cluster, respectively.

Results

During 2 years of follow-up, there was evidence of 27% overall (95 %CI: 7, 43) and 42% total protection (95 %CI: 23, 56) in the P100 cluster, but it did not increase when moved in smaller yolks. There was no evidence of indirect vaccine protection in the yolks at any cluster size.

Conclusion

Our reanalysis of the CRT using the fried- egg approach did not detect RV herd protection. Whether these findings reflect a true inability of the RV to confer herd protection in this setting, or are due to limitations of the approach, requires further study.

Sustained declines in age group-specific rotavirus infection and acute gastroenteritis in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals during the five years since Rotavirus vaccine introduction in England

BACKGROUND

The introduction of an oral live-attenuated monovalent rotavirus vaccine (Rotarix ®) into the UK infant immunisation programme in July 2013 was associated with large reductions in laboratory-confirmed rotavirus infections and hospitalisations due to acute gastroenteritis (AGE) within 12 months. Here we report the five-year impact of the programme in England.

METHODS

Individuals with laboratory-confirmed rotavirus infections during 2000-2018 and all-cause hospitalisations for AGE during 2007-2018 were identified using national electronic records. Age-specific incidence rate ratios (IRR) and estimated numbers of cases averted in each of the five post-vaccination years were calculated.

RESULTS

There were 206,389 laboratory-confirmed rotavirus infections and 3,657,651 hospitalisations for all-cause AGE. Reductions of 69-83% in laboratory-confirmed rotavirus infections in all age groups and 77-88% in infants aged <1 year in each of the five post-vaccine years are reported, with 11,386-11,633 cases averted annually. All-cause AGE hospitalisations were reduced by 12-35% across all age-groups and by 25-48% in <1 year-olds in the five post-vaccine years, with 24,474-49,278 hospitalisations averted annually. There was strong evidence of indirect (herd) protection, with at least 50% and up to 80% of the non-specific end point of all-cause gastroenteritis (AGE) hospitalisations averted being in unvaccinated age-groups, primarily older adults. Seasonal changes include a possible shift from annual to biennial peaks with lower peak incidence and longer seasons.

CONCLUSIONS

There were large and sustained declines in both laboratory-confirmed rotavirus infections and AGE hospitalisations across all age groups in each of the five years since the introduction of the UK rotavirus programme.

Non-linear effect of temperature variation on childhood rotavirus infection: A time series study from Kathmandu, Nepal

INTRODUCTION

This study aimed to investigate the effects of temperature variability on rotavirus infections among children under 5 years of age in Kathmandu, Nepal. Findings may inform infection control planning, especially in relation to the role of environmental factors in the transmission of rotavirus infection.

METHODS

Generalized linear Poisson regression equations with distributed lag non-linear model were fitted to estimate the effect of temperature (maximum, mean and minimum) variation on weekly counts of rotavirus infections among children under 5 years of age living in Kathmandu, Nepal, over the study period (2013 to 2016). Seasonality and long-term effects were adjusted in the model using Fourier terms up to the seventh harmonic and a time function, respectively. We further adjusted the model for the confounding effects of rainfall and relative humidity.

RESULTS

During the study period, a total of 733 cases of rotavirus infection were recorded, with a mean of 3 cases per week. We detected an inverse non-linear association between rotavirus infection and average weekly mean temperature, with increased risk (RR: 1.52; 95% CI: 1.08-2.15) at the lower quantile (10th percentile) and decreased risk (RR: 0.64; 95% CI: 0.43-0.95) at the higher quantile (75th percentile). Similarly, we detected an increased risk [(RR: 1.93; 95% CI: 1.40-2.65) and (RR: 1.42; 95% CI: 1.04-1.95)] of rotavirus infection for both maximum and minimum temperature at their lower quantile (10th percentile). We estimated that 344 (47.01%) cases of rotavirus diarrhoea among the children under 5 years of age were attributable to minimum temperature. The significant effect of temperature on rotavirus infection was not observed beyond lag zero week.

CONCLUSION

An inverse non-linear association was estimated between rotavirus incidence and all three indices of temperature, indicating a higher risk of infection during the cooler times of the year, and suggesting that transmission of rotavirus in Kathmandu, Nepal may be influenced by temperature.

Evaluating strategies to improve rotavirus vaccine impact during the second year of life in Malawi

Rotavirus vaccination has substantially reduced the incidence of rotavirus-associated gastroenteritis (RVGE) in high-income countries, but vaccine impact and estimated effectiveness are lower in low-income countries for reasons that are poorly understood. We used mathematical modeling to quantify rotavirus vaccine impact and investigate reduced vaccine effectiveness, particularly during the second year of life, in Malawi, where vaccination was introduced in October 2012 with doses at 6 and 10 weeks. We fitted models to 12 years of prevaccination data and validated the models against postvaccination data to evaluate the magnitude and duration of vaccine protection. The observed rollout of vaccination in Malawi was predicted to lead to a 26 to 77% decrease in the overall incidence of moderate-to-severe RVGE in 2016, depending on assumptions about waning of vaccine-induced immunity and heterogeneity in vaccine response. Vaccine effectiveness estimates were predicted to be higher among 4- to 11-month-olds than 12- to 23-month-olds, even when vaccine-induced immunity did not wane, due to differences in the rate at which vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals acquire immunity from natural infection. We found that vaccine effectiveness during the first and second years of life could potentially be improved by increasing the proportion of infants who respond to vaccination or by lowering the rotavirus transmission rate. An additional dose of rotavirus vaccine at 9 months of age was predicted to lead to higher estimated vaccine effectiveness but to only modest (5 to 16%) reductions in RVGE incidence over the first 3 years after introduction, regardless of assumptions about waning of vaccine-induced immunity.

Diarrhea Patterns and Climate: A Spatiotemporal Bayesian Hierarchical Analysis of Diarrheal Disease in Afghanistan

Subject to a high burden of diarrheal diseases, Afghanistan is also susceptible to climate change. This study investigated the spatiotemporal distribution of diarrheal disease in the country and how associated it is with climate variables. Using monthly aggregated new cases of acute diarrhea reported between 2010 and 2016 and monthly averaged climate data at the district level, we fitted a hierarchical Bayesian spatiotemporal statistical model. We found aridity and mean daily temperature were positively associated with diarrhea incidence; every 1°C increase in mean daily temperature and 0.01-unit change in the aridity index were associated with a 0.70% (CI: 0.67%, 0.73%) increase and a 4.79% (CI: 4.30%, 5.26%) increase in the risk of diarrhea, respectively. Average annual temperature, on the other hand, was negatively associated, with a 3.7% (CI: 3.74%, 3.68) decrease in risk for every degree Celsius increase in annual average temperature. Temporally, most districts exhibited similar seasonal trends, with incidence peaking in summer, except for the eastern region where differences in climate patterns and population density may be associated with high rates of diarrhea throughout the year. The results from this study highlight the significant role of climate in shaping diarrheal patterns in Afghanistan, allowing policymakers to account for potential impacts of climate change in their public health assessments.

Disease burden and seasonal impact of improving rotavirus vaccine coverage in the United States: A modeling study

Background

Prior to vaccine introduction in 2006, rotavirus was the leading cause of severe diarrhea in children under five years of age in the U.S. Vaccination of infants has led to major reductions in disease burden, a shift in the seasonal peak and the emergence of a biennial pattern of disease. However, rotavirus vaccine coverage has remained relatively low (70–75%) compared to other infant immunizations in the U.S. Part of the reason for this lower coverage is that children whose care is provided by family practitioners (FP) have considerably lower probability of being vaccinated compared to those seen be pediatricians (PE). We used a dynamic transmission model to assess the impact of improving rotavirus vaccine coverage by FP and/or PE on rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) incidence and seasonal patterns.

Methods

A deterministic age-structured dynamic model with susceptible, infectious, and recovered compartments (SIRS model) was used to simulate rotavirus transmission and vaccination. We estimated the reduction of RVGE cases by 2 doses of rotavirus vaccine with three vaccination scenarios: (Status Quo: 85% coverage by pediatricians and 45% coverage by family practitioners; Improved FP: 85% coverage by pediatricians and family practitioners; Improved FP+PE: 95% coverage by pediatricians and family practitioners). In addition, we tested the sensitivity of the model to the assumption of random mixing patterns between children visiting pediatricians and children visiting family practitioners.

Results

In this model, higher vaccine coverage provided by family practitioners and pediatricians leads to lower incidence of severe RVGE cases (23% averted in Improved FP and 57% averted in Improved FP+PE compared to Status Quo) including indirect effects. One critical impact of higher total vaccine coverage is the effect on rotavirus epidemic patterns in the U.S.; the biennial rotavirus epidemic patterns shifted to reduced annual epidemic patterns. Additionally, assortative mixing patterns in children visiting pediatricians and family practitioners amplify the impact of increasing vaccine coverage.

Conclusion

Other high-income countries that introduced vaccine have not experienced biennial patterns, like the U.S. Our results suggest that increasing overall vaccine coverage to 85% among infants would lead to an overall reduction in incidence with annual epidemic patterns.

Rotavirus Seasonality: An Application of Singular Spectrum Analysis and Polyharmonic Modeling

The dynamics of many viral infections, including rotaviral infections (RIs), are known to have a complex non-linear, non-stationary structure with strong seasonality indicative of virus and host sensitivity to environmental conditions. However, analytical tools suitable for the identification of seasonal peaks are limited. We introduced a two-step procedure to determine seasonal patterns in RI and examined the relationship between daily rates of rotaviral infection and ambient temperature in cold climates in three Russian cities: Chelyabinsk, Yekaterinburg, and Barnaul from 2005 to 2011. We described the structure of temporal variations using a new class of singular spectral analysis (SSA) models based on the "Caterpillar" algorithm. We then fitted Poisson polyharmonic regression (PPHR) models and examined the relationship between daily RI rates and ambient temperature. In SSA models, RI rates reached their seasonal peaks around 24 February, 5 March, and 12 March (i.e., the 55.17 ± 3.21, 64.17 ± 5.12, and 71.11 ± 7.48 day of the year) in Chelyabinsk, Yekaterinburg, and Barnaul, respectively. Yet, in all three cities, the minimum temperature was observed, on average, to be on 15 January, which translates to a lag between the peak in disease incidence and time of temperature minimum of 38-40 days for Chelyabinsk, 45-49 days in Yekaterinburg, and 56-59 days in Barnaul. The proposed approach takes advantage of an accurate description of the time series data offered by the SSA-model coupled with a straightforward interpretation of the PPHR model. By better tailoring analytical methodology to estimate seasonal features and understand the relationships between infection and environmental conditions, regional and global disease forecasting can be further improved.

Modeling Future Projections of Temperature-Related Excess Morbidity due to Infectious Gastroenteritis under Climate Change Conditions in Japan

BACKGROUND

Climate change has marked implications for the burden of infectious diseases. However, no studies have estimated future projections of climate change–related excess morbidity due to diarrhea according to climate change scenarios.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to examine temperature-infectious gastroenteritis associations throughout Japan and project temperature-related morbidity concomitant with climate change for the 2090s.

METHODS

Weekly time series of average temperature and morbidity for infectious gastroenteritis cases in the period 2005-2015 were collated from the 47 Japanese prefectures. A two-stage time-series analysis was adopted to estimate temperature-infectious gastroenteritis relationships. Time series of present and future average daily temperature fluctuations were projected for the four climate change scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) according to five general circulation models. Excess morbidity for high and low temperatures and the net change in the period 1990–2099 were projected for each climate change scenario by assuming the absence of adaptation and population alterations.

RESULTS

In the period 2005–2015, 11,529,833 infectious gastroenteritis cases were reported. There were net reductions in temperature-induced excess morbidity under higher emission scenarios. The net change in the projection period 2090-2099 in comparison with 2010–2019 was [Formula: see text] (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: [Formula: see text], 0.5) for RCP2.6, [Formula: see text] (95% eCI: [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]) for RCP4.5, [Formula: see text] (95% eCI: [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]) for RCP6.0, and [Formula: see text] (95% eCI: [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]) for RCP8.5, and the higher the emissions scenario, the larger the estimates reductions. Spatial heterogeneity in the temperature-morbidity relationship was observed among prefectures (Cochran Q test, [Formula: see text]; [Formula: see text]).

CONCLUSIONS

Japan may experience a net reduction in temperature-related excess morbidity due to infectious gastroenteritis in higher emission scenarios. These results might be because the majority of temperature-related diarrhea cases in Japan are attributable to viral infections during the winter season. Further projections of specific pathogen-induced infectious gastroenteritis due to climate change are warranted. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4731.

Seasonality of Rotavirus Hospitalizations at Costa Rica's National Children's Hospital in 2010-2015

Rotavirus is a leading cause of acute diarrhea in children worldwide. Costa Rica recently started universal rotavirus vaccinations for infants with a two-dose schedule in February 2019. We aimed to study the seasonality of rotavirus during the pre-vaccination era. We retrospectively studied a six-year period of hospital admissions due to rotavirus gastroenteritis. We estimated seasonal peak timing and relative intensities using trend-adjusted negative binomial regression models with the δ-method. We assessed the relationship between rotavirus cases and weather characteristics and estimated their effects for the current month, one-month prior and two months prior, by using Pearson correlation coefficients. A total of 798 cases were analyzed. Rotavirus cases predominated in the first five months of the year. On average, the peak of admissions occurred between late-February and early-March. During the seasonal peaks, the monthly count tended to increase 2.5-2.75 times above the seasonal nadir. We found the strongest negative association of monthly hospitalizations and joint percentiles of precipitation and minimal temperature at a lag of two months (R = -0.265, p = 0.027) and we detected correlations of -0.218, -0.223, and -0.226 (p < 0.05 for all three estimates) between monthly cases and the percentile of precipitation at lags 0, 1, and 2 months. In the warm tropical climate of Costa Rica, the increase in rotavirus hospitalizations coincided with dry and cold weather conditions with a two-month lag. The findings serve as the base for predictive modeling and estimation of the impact of a nation-wide vaccination campaign on pediatric rotaviral infection morbidity.

First detection of a reassortant G3P[8] rotavirus A strain in Italy: a case report in an 8-year-old child

Background

Acute gastroenteritis (AGE) due to group A rotavirus (RVA) agent is one of the major causes of hospitalization in paediatric age. The G3P[8] RVA genotype has been usually considered as one of the major human genotypes, largely circulating in Asia, but showing low detection rates in the European countries. In recent years, the G3P[8] RVAs emerged also in Europe as a predominant genotype and the viral strains detected revealed high similarities with equine-like G3P[8] RVA strains, resulting in a new variant circulating in humans and able to cause AGE in the paediatric population.

Case presentation

An 8-year-old boy was admitted to the Emergency Room because he had suffered from severe diarrhoea, vomiting, and high fever over the previous two days. Severe dehydration was evident based on low serum concentrations of potassium and sodium, low glycaemia, and pre-renal failure (creatinine 2.48 mg/dL, urea 133 mg/dL). Immunological tests were within normal range. Enzyme immunoassay for the detection of RV was positive, and a sample of faeces was collected in order to perform the molecular characterization of the viral strain. The phylogenetic trees revealed relatedness between the VP7 and VP4 genes of the G3P[8] RVA Italian strain (namely PG2) and those belonging to recent G3P[8] RVAs detected worldwide. The G3 VP7 belonged to the G3-I lineage and shared the highest nucleotide sequence identity (99.8%) with the equine-like G3 previously identified in other countries. The P [8] VP4 revealed a similar clustering pattern to that observed for the VP7. In addition, the molecular characterization of the 11 gene segments of strain PG2 revealed a G3-P[8]-I2-R2-C2-M2-A2-N2-T2-E2-H2 genomic constellation.

Conclusions

This case shows the first detection in Italy of a reassortant G3P[8] RVA associated with a severe AGE, which is unusual in a school-age child without any known severe underlying problems. The findings reported in this paper highlight the importance of continuously monitoring the RVA strains circulating in paediatric age in order to detect novel viral variants able to spread in the general population.

Primary care-based surveillance to estimate the proportion of rotavirus gastroenteritis among Latvian children below 5 years of age with acute gastroenteritis

Background: Rotavirus (RV) is worldwide an important cause of acute gastroenteritis (AGE) in infants and young children. There is no specific treatment for AGE caused by RV (RVGE) but since 2006 two safe and effective vaccines have been available. RV vaccination was included in the national immunization program (NIP) of Latvia in 2015 with full reimbursement, and within the first year a coverage of 87% was achieved. This surveillance study was carried out to investigate the proportion of RVGE among AGE episodes in Latvia up to the inclusion of RV vaccination in the NIP to provide a basis for future assessments of the impact of RV vaccination.

Methods: Prospective, one-year observational study of children younger than 5 years presenting with AGE in the primary care setting. At first primary care contact, a stool sample was collected and tested for RV using a rapid, visual immunochromatographic kit. The parents monitored their child’s symptoms over 2 weeks after the first contact and the investigator recorded these observations during a follow-up phone call. The proportion of RVGE among the AGE cases was estimated and the severity of each AGE case was assessed based on the recorded symptoms using the 20-point Vesikari scale. The seasonality of RVGE was also investigated.

Results: Fifty-two primary care investigators collected data on 606 evaluable children with AGE. The proportion of RVGE was 38.1%. Severe AGE was experienced by 40.7% of the RV-positive and 19.5% of the RV-negative patients. The rate of hospitalization was 9.1% for the RV-positive and 4.8% for the RV-negative with no difference in the mean duration of hospital stays. AGE and RVGE both occurred all year round but with a clearly marked peak only for RVGE, from March to May.

Conclusion: This study underlines that RV is an important cause of AGE in children under 5 years old in Latvia and that the burden of disease of RVGE in primary care was substantial before inclusion of RV vaccination in the NIP.

Trial registration: NCT01733849

Biennial Pattern of Rotavirus Gastroenteritis in The Netherlands and a Shifting Age Distribution After a Low Rotavirus Season, 2010-2016

A hyperendemic rotavirus season was expected after a low-endemic 2014 season in the Netherlands. Rotavirus detections were however similar in 2015 and lower in 2016 compared with 2010-2013. Gastroenteritis consultation rates were also similar in 2015, but the age distribution shifted to older children because of an accumulation of noninfected children. Results indicate a possible shift to a biennial rotavirus pattern.

Detection of rotavirus before and after monovalent rotavirus vaccine introduction and vaccine effectiveness among children in mainland Tanzania

BACKGROUND

Monovalent rotavirus vaccine (RV1) was introduced in Tanzania in January 2013 under the Reach Every Child initiative, to be given at ages 6 and 10 weeks. We used the sentinel hospital rotavirus surveillance system to examine the rotavirus detection rate before and after vaccine introduction and estimate vaccine effectiveness.

METHODS

Before vaccine introduction, rotavirus surveillance was established at two mainland hospitals; children admitted for acute diarrhea were eligible for enrollment and stools were tested for rotavirus antigen. We compared the rotavirus positivity rate in the pre-vaccine period (Tanga Hospital, 2009 and 2011; Bugando Medical Centre, 2012) to that from post-introduction years, 2014-2015. In 2013, surveillance was established at 9 additional hospitals. We examined rotavirus positivity among infants at these sites for 2014-2015. We obtained vaccine records and calculated vaccine effectiveness at 3 sites using case-test-negative control design.

RESULTS

At Tanga Hospital, the rotavirus positivity rate among infants was 41% (102/251) pre-vaccine and 14% (28/197) in post-vaccine years (rate ratio: 0.35 [95% CI 0.22-0.54]). At Bugando, the positivity rate was 58% (83/143) pre-vaccine, and 18% (49/277) post-introduction (rate ratio 0.30 [95% CI 0.210.44]). Results were similar among children <5 years. At the new sites, the median site rotavirus positivity rate among infants was 26% in 2014 (range 19-44%) and 18% in 2015 (range 16-33%). The effectiveness of ≥1 RV1 dose against rotavirus hospitalization among children 5-23 months was 53% (95% CI: -14, 81), and 66% (95% CI: 9-87) against hospitalization with intravenous rehydration. Following introduction, peak rotavirus activity occurred later in the year and appeared more concentrated in time.

CONCLUSION

Rotavirus surveillance data from Tanzania indicate that the rotavirus positivity rate among children hospitalized with diarrhea that were enrolled was substantially reduced after vaccine introduction. Low positivity rates among infants were detected at hospitals across the country. Overall, the data support that rotavirus vaccine has been successfully introduced and is effective in Tanzanian children.

Modeling environmentally mediated rotavirus transmission: The role of temperature and hydrologic factors

Rotavirus is considered a directly transmitted disease due to its high infectivity. Environmental pathways have, therefore, largely been ignored. Rotavirus, however, persists in water sources, and both its surface water concentrations and infection incidence vary with temperature. Here, we examine the potential for waterborne rotavirus transmission. We use a mechanistic model that incorporates both direct and waterborne transmission pathways, coupled with a hydrological model, and we simulate rotavirus transmission between two communities with interconnected water sources. To parameterize temperature dependency, we estimated temperature-dependent decay rates in water through a meta-analysis. Our meta-analysis suggests that rotavirus decay rates are positively associated with temperature (n = 39, P [Formula: see text] 0.001). This association is stronger at higher temperatures (over 20 °C), consistent with tropical climate conditions. Our model analysis demonstrates that water could disseminate rotavirus between the two communities for all modeled temperatures. While direct transmission was important for disease amplification within communities, waterborne transmission could also amplify transmission. In standing-water systems, the modeled increase in decay led to decreased disease, with every 1 °C increase in temperature leading to up to a 2.4% decrease in incidence. These effect sizes are consistent with prior meta-analyses, suggesting that environmental transmission through water sources may partially explain the observed associations between temperature and rotavirus incidence. Waterborne rotavirus transmission is likely most important in cooler seasons and in communities that use slow-moving or stagnant water sources. Even when indirect transmission through water cannot sustain outbreaks, it can seed outbreaks that are maintained by high direct transmission rates.

Enteric Viruses in Surface Waters from Argentina: Molecular and Viable-Virus Detection

Water resources contaminated with wastewater are an important source for the dissemination of enteric viruses with an impact on the health of the population. The aim of the study was to assess the viral contamination of freshwater from a dam in Argentina by using infectious enterovirus detection, viral RNA amplification, and a genetic characterization of five enteric viruses associated with diarrhea and hepatitis. Enterovirus infectivity (iEV) was evaluated by cell culture and direct immunofluorescence. The detection of the viral genome of rotavirus (RV), human astrovirus (HAstV), norovirus (NoV), hepatitis A virus (HAV), and hepatitis E virus (HEV) was performed by reverse transcriptase PCR (RT-PCR). A total of 48 water samples from 4 monitoring points on the body of the dam from January to December 2012 and 66 water samples from 3 tourist beaches on the edge of the dam from October 2013 to October 2015 were collected monthly. During the first period, the overall viral frequency detection was 52.1% for group A RV, 50% for HAstV, 60.4% for NoV, 22.9% for HAV, 2.1% for HEV, and 64.6% for iEV. The overall frequency detection for the second sampling was 18.2% for RV and HAstV, 31.8% for NoV, 7.57% for HEV, and 66.7% for iEV. There was no detection of HAV during this period. The genotypes and genogroups detected through the study correlated with the most common genomic variants associated with human gastrointestinal and hepatitis illnesses. The results obtained could alert the health systems and environmental sanitation to make decisions for viral control and prevention in our environment.IMPORTANCE The study shows the impact of anthropic contamination of one of the most important tourist water resources in Argentina. This course of recreational water would be a favorable scenario for infection, as well as a reservoir for the enteric viruses, creating a risk for the population exposed to these waters. The results obtained could alert the health systems and environmental sanitation to make decisions for the control and prevention of viral diseases in this environment.

Norovirus transmission dynamics: a modelling review

Norovirus is one of the leading causes of viral gastroenteritis worldwide and responsible for substantial morbidity, mortality and healthcare costs. To further understanding of the epidemiology and control of norovirus, there has been much recent interest in describing the transmission dynamics of norovirus through mathematical models. In this study, we review the current modelling approaches for norovirus transmission. We examine the data and methods used to estimate these models that vary structurally and parametrically between different epidemiological contexts. Many of the existing studies at population level have focused on the same case notification dataset, whereas models from outbreak settings are highly specific and difficult to generalise. In this review, we explore the consistency in the description of norovirus transmission dynamics and the robustness of parameter estimates between studies. In particular, we find that there is considerable variability in estimates of key parameters such as the basic reproduction number, which may mean that the effort required to control norovirus at the population level may currently be underestimated.

An ensemble approach to predicting the impact of vaccination on rotavirus disease in Niger

Recently developed vaccines provide a new way of controlling rotavirus in sub-Saharan Africa. Models for the transmission dynamics of rotavirus are critical both for estimating current burden from imperfect surveillance and for assessing potential effects of vaccine intervention strategies. We examine rotavirus infection in the Maradi area in southern Niger using hospital surveillance data provided by Epicentre collected over two years. Additionally, a cluster survey of households in the region allows us to estimate the proportion of children with diarrhea who consulted at a health structure. Model fit and future projections are necessarily particular to a given model; thus, where there are competing models for the underlying epidemiology an ensemble approach can account for that uncertainty. We compare our results across several variants of Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) compartmental models to quantify the impact of modeling assumptions on our estimates. Model-specific parameters are estimated by Bayesian inference using Markov chain Monte Carlo. We then use Bayesian model averaging to generate ensemble estimates of the current dynamics, including estimates of R0, the burden of infection in the region, as well as the impact of vaccination on both the short-term dynamics and the long-term reduction of rotavirus incidence under varying levels of coverage. The ensemble of models predicts that the current burden of severe rotavirus disease is 2.6–3.7% of the population each year and that a 2-dose vaccine schedule achieving 70% coverage could reduce burden by 39–42%.

Comparative dynamics, seasonality in transmission, and predictability of childhood infections in Mexico

The seasonality and periodicity of infections, and the mechanisms underlying observed dynamics, can have implications for control efforts. This is particularly true for acute childhood infections. Among these, the dynamics of measles is the best understood and has been extensively studied, most notably in the UK prior to the start of vaccination. Less is known about the dynamics of other childhood diseases, particularly outside Europe and the United States. In this paper, we leverage a unique dataset to examine the epidemiology of six childhood infections - measles, mumps, rubella, varicella, scarlet fever and pertussis - across 32 states in Mexico from 1985 to 2007. This dataset provides us with a spatio-temporal probe into the dynamics of six common childhood infections, and allows us to compare them in the same setting over the same time period. We examine three key epidemiological characteristics of these infections - the age profile of infections, spatio-temporal dynamics, and seasonality in transmission - and compare them with predictions from existing theory and past findings. Our analysis reveals interesting epidemiological differences between the six pathogens, and variations across space. We find signatures of term-time forcing (reduced transmission during the summer) for measles, mumps, rubella, varicella, and scarlet fever; for pertussis, a lack of term-time forcing could not be rejected.

Time series investigation of changes in seasonality of acute diarrhea hospitalizations before and after rotavirus vaccine in Southern Brazil

Diarrhea by rotavirus is one of the main causes of mortality in children in developing countries, although the hospitalization rates (HR) for acute diarrhea have been found to have fallen since the introduction of the rotavirus vaccine. However, the patterns of the rotavirus are still not well understood and seasonal peaks occur throughout the year, with variations between countries and over time. The main objective of this study was to analyze the temporal behavior of HR caused by acute diarrhea in children under the age of one in the south of Brazil, between 2000 and 2011, and to explore changes in seasonality patters after the introduction of the vaccine against the rotavirus in 2006. Harmonic and multiscale wavelet analyses were used to detect seasonality and the points of change in the temporal scale. The statistical significance of each seasonality that was identified was tested using Fisher's test. The harmonic and wavelet analyses show annual seasonal and six-monthly patterns for HR, as well as a clear change after the introduction of the vaccine in 2006.

Unbiased whole-genome deep sequencing of human and porcine stool samples reveals circulation of multiple groups of rotaviruses and a putative zoonotic infection

Coordinated and synchronous surveillance for zoonotic viruses in both human clinical cases and animal reservoirs provides an opportunity to identify interspecies virus movement. Rotavirus (RV) is an important cause of viral gastroenteritis in humans and animals. In this study, we document the RV diversity within co-located humans and animals sampled from the Mekong delta region of Vietnam using a primer-independent, agnostic, deep sequencing approach. A total of 296 stool samples (146 from diarrhoeal human patients and 150 from pigs living in the same geographical region) were directly sequenced, generating the genomic sequences of sixty human rotaviruses (all group A) and thirty-one porcine rotaviruses (thirteen group A, seven group B, six group C, and five group H). Phylogenetic analyses showed the co-circulation of multiple distinct RV group A (RVA) genotypes/strains, many of which were divergent from the strain components of licensed RVA vaccines, as well as considerable virus diversity in pigs including full genomes of rotaviruses in groups B, C, and H, none of which have been previously reported in Vietnam. Furthermore, the detection of an atypical RVA genotype constellation (G4-P[6]-I1-R1-C1-M1-A8-N1-T7-E1-H1) in a human patient and a pig from the same region provides some evidence for a zoonotic event.

Rotavirus gastroenteritis in children less than five years of age in primary care settings in Bulgaria: an observational study

BACKGROUND

Rotavirus (RV) causes a high proportion of acute gastroenteritis (AGE) cases, especially among children under the age of five years old. This surveillance study was undertaken to study the incidence and severity of rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) in primary care settings in Bulgaria over a one-year period.

METHODS

In this prospective, observational study of AGE cases in children under five years of age presenting in the primary care setting over a one year period, stool samples were collected and tested for RV using a rapid visual immunochromatographic test kit. After the first visit, parents monitored their child for about two weeks and reported the symptoms experienced by the child during the follow-up period to the physician in a follow-up phone call. The percentage of RVGE cases among AGE was calculated and the severity of AGE (according to the 20-point Vesikari scale) was assessed by the physician based on the symptoms reported by the parents. The seasonality of RVGE was also studied.

RESULTS

The proportion of RVGE among the 624 AGE cases examined was 25.5%. Severe AGE was experienced by 81.8% RV-positive and 54.6% RV-negative children (p-value <0.001) and a third of all severe AGE cases occurred in RV-positive patients. A multivariate logistic regression analysis of the determinants of hospitalization indicated that severity of disease and RV-positivity were the statistically significant variables explaining hospitalization of AGE cases; even controlling for severity, RV-positive patients were more often hospitalized than RV-negative ones. RVGE cases occurred throughout the year, with peaks during August and September.

CONCLUSION

Our study emphasizes that RV is an important cause of AGE in children under five presenting in primary care settings in Bulgaria and a disproportionately high proportion of severe AGE cases may be attributed to RV infections.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT01733849.

Untangling the Impacts of Climate Change on Waterborne Diseases: a Systematic Review of Relationships between Diarrheal Diseases and Temperature, Rainfall, Flooding, and Drought

Global climate change is expected to affect waterborne enteric diseases, yet to date there has been no comprehensive, systematic review of the epidemiological literature examining the relationship between meteorological conditions and diarrheal diseases. We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Collection for studies describing the relationship between diarrheal diseases and four meteorological conditions that are expected to increase with climate change: ambient temperature, heavy rainfall, drought, and flooding. We synthesized key areas of agreement and evaluated the biological plausibility of these findings, drawing from a diverse, multidisciplinary evidence base. We identified 141 articles that met our inclusion criteria. Key areas of agreement include a positive association between ambient temperature and diarrheal diseases, with the exception of viral diarrhea and an increase in diarrheal disease following heavy rainfall and flooding events. Insufficient evidence was available to evaluate the effects of drought on diarrhea. There is evidence to support the biological plausibility of these associations, but publication bias is an ongoing concern. Future research evaluating whether interventions, such as improved water and sanitation access, modify risk would further our understanding of the potential impacts of climate change on diarrheal diseases and aid in the prioritization of adaptation measures.

Differential and enhanced response to climate forcing in diarrheal disease due to rotavirus across a megacity of the developing world

The role of climate forcing in the population dynamics of infectious diseases has typically been revealed via retrospective analyses of incidence records aggregated across space and, in particular, over whole cities. Here, we focus on the transmission dynamics of rotavirus, the main diarrheal disease in infants and young children, within the megacity of Dhaka, Bangladesh. We identify two zones, the densely urbanized core and the more rural periphery, that respond differentially to flooding. Moreover, disease seasonality differs substantially between these regions, spanning variation comparable to the variation from tropical to temperate regions. By combining process-based models with an extensive disease surveillance record, we show that the response to climate forcing is mainly seasonal in the core, where a more endemic transmission resulting from an asymptomatic reservoir facilitates the response to the monsoons. The force of infection in this monsoon peak can be an order of magnitude larger than the force of infection in the more epidemic periphery, which exhibits little or no postmonsoon outbreak in a pattern typical of nearby rural areas. A typically smaller peak during the monsoon season nevertheless shows sensitivity to interannual variability in flooding. High human density in the core is one explanation for enhanced transmission during troughs and an associated seasonal monsoon response in this diarrheal disease, which unlike cholera, has not been widely viewed as climate-sensitive. Spatial demographic, socioeconomic, and environmental heterogeneity can create reservoirs of infection and enhance the sensitivity of disease systems to climate forcing, especially in the populated cities of the developing world.

Did Large-Scale Vaccination Drive Changes in the Circulating Rotavirus Population in Belgium?

Vaccination can place selective pressures on viral populations, leading to changes in the distribution of strains as viruses evolve to escape immunity from the vaccine. Vaccine-driven strain replacement is a major concern after nationwide rotavirus vaccine introductions. However, the distribution of the predominant rotavirus genotypes varies from year to year in the absence of vaccination, making it difficult to determine what changes can be attributed to the vaccines. To gain insight in the underlying dynamics driving changes in the rotavirus population, we fitted a hierarchy of mathematical models to national and local genotype-specific hospitalization data from Belgium, where large-scale vaccination was introduced in 2006. We estimated that natural- and vaccine-derived immunity was strongest against completely homotypic strains and weakest against fully heterotypic strains, with an intermediate immunity amongst partially heterotypic strains. The predominance of G2P[4] infections in Belgium after vaccine introduction can be explained by a combination of natural genotype fluctuations and weaker natural and vaccine-induced immunity against infection with strains heterotypic to the vaccine, in the absence of significant variation in strain-specific vaccine effectiveness against disease. However, the incidence of rotavirus gastroenteritis is predicted to remain low despite vaccine-driven changes in the distribution of genotypes.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of ambient temperature and diarrhoeal diseases

BACKGROUND

Global climate change is expected to increase the risk of diarrhoeal diseases, a leading cause of childhood mortality. However, there is considerable uncertainty about the magnitude of these effects and which populations bear the greatest risks.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review using defined search terms across four major databases and, additionally, examined the references of 54 review articles captured by the search. We evaluated sources of heterogeneity by pathogen taxon, exposure measure, study quality, country income level and regional climate, and estimated pooled effect estimates for the subgroups identified in the heterogeneity analysis, using meta-analysis methods.

RESULTS

We identified 26 studies with 49 estimates. Pathogen taxa were a source of heterogeneity. There was a positive association between ambient temperature and all-cause diarrhoea (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.07; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03, 1.10) and bacterial diarrhoea (IRR 1.07; 95% CI 1.04, 1.10), but not viral diarrhoea (IRR 0.96; 95% CI 0.82, 1.11). These associations were observed in low-, middle- and high-income countries. Only one study of protozoan diarrhoea was identified.

CONCLUSIONS

Changes in temperature due to global climate change can and may already be affecting diarrhoeal disease incidence. The vulnerability of populations may depend, in part, on local pathogen distribution. However, evidence of publication bias and the uneven geographical distribution of studies limit the precision and generalizability of the pooled estimates.

Demographic buffering: titrating the effects of birth rate and imperfect immunity on epidemic dynamics

Host demography can alter the dynamics of infectious disease. In the case of perfectly immunizing infections, observations of strong sensitivity to demographic variation have been mechanistically explained through analysis of the susceptible–infected–recovered (SIR) model that assumes lifelong immunity following recovery from infection. When imperfect immunity is incorporated into this framework via the susceptible–infected–recovered–susceptible (SIRS) model, with individuals regaining full susceptibility following recovery, we show that rapid loss of immunity is predicted to buffer populations against the effects of demographic change. However, this buffering is contrary to the dependence on demography recently observed for partially immunizing infections such as rotavirus and respiratory syncytial virus. We show that this discrepancy arises from a key simplification embedded in the SIR(S) framework, namely that the potential for differential immune responses to repeat exposures is ignored. We explore the minimum additional immunological information that must be included to reflect the range of observed dependencies on demography. We show that including partial protection and lower transmission following primary infection is sufficient to capture more realistic reduced levels of buffering, in addition to changes in epidemic timing, across a range of partially and fully immunizing infections. Furthermore, our results identify key variables in this relationship, including R₀.

An observational study of the temporal and spatial patterns of Marek's-disease-associated leukosis condemnation of young chickens in the United States of America

Marek's disease, a disease primarily affecting immature chickens, is a worldwide problem that has on at least three occasions threatened the poultry industry in the United States. A rich dataset to study the epidemiology of this disease is available because the United States Department of Agriculture has required mandatory inspections of all commercially sold poultry of significant scale since the mid-20th century with over 99% of all chickens inspected. This dataset includes monthly totals aggregated by state since 1961 of the number of "young chickens" inspected and the number with "leukosis", a condemnation category that is almost always associated with Marek's disease in this category of birds. The objective of this study was to analyze temporal and spatial patterns in this condemnation data to gain insight into the ecology and epidemiology of the causative virus. We extracted visual patterns in the data using seasonal trend decomposition, and we tested for statistical significance using extended linear modeling techniques. The analysis confirmed previous findings that there are differences in leukosis condemnation rates between states, across years, and within years. The analysis also revealed several patterns not previously highlighted, including spatial and temporal autocorrelations in leukosis condemnation, changes to the amplitude of seasonality over time, and increasing within-year variation in condemnation rate over time. These patterns suggest that locally shared farm practices, virus transmission between farms, or viral persistence may be important to understanding the dynamics of the disease. We also discuss the plausibility of other potential explanations for these patterns.

Rotavirus seasonality in urban sewage from Argentina: effect of meteorological variables on the viral load and the genetic diversity

In Argentina, the rotavirus disease exhibits seasonal variations, being most prevalent in the fall and winter months. To deepen the understanding of rotavirus seasonality in our community, the influence of meteorological factors on the rotavirus load and the genetic diversity in urban raw sewage from Córdoba city, Argentina were evaluated. Wastewater samples were collected monthly during a three-year study period and viral particles were concentrated by polyethylene glycol precipitation. RT-nested PCR was applied for rotavirus detection, and VP7/VP4 characterization and real-time PCR for rotavirus quantification. Both molecular techniques showed relatively similar sensitivity rates and revealed rotavirus presence in urban wastewater in cold and warm seasons, indicating its circulation in the local community all year round. However, a slight trend for rotavirus circulation was noted by real-time PCR in the fall and winter seasons, showing a significantly higher peak of rotavirus concentration at mean temperatures lower than 18°C and also higher, although not statistically different during drier weather. VP7 and VP4 gene characterization showed that G1 and P[8] genotypes were dominant, and temporal variations in genotype distribution were not observed. Rotavirus spread is complex and our results point out that weather factors alone cannot explain the seasonal quantitative pattern of the rotavirus disease. Therefore, alternative transmission routes, changes in human behavior and susceptibility, and the stability and survivability of the virus might all together contribute to the seasonality of rotavirus. The results obtained here provide evidence regarding the dynamics of rotavirus circulation and maintenance in Argentina.

Effect of monovalent rotavirus vaccine on rotavirus disease burden and circulating rotavirus strains among children in Morocco

Rotarix(TM) vaccine was introduced into the National Program of Immunization of Morocco in October 2010, reaching quickly 87% of the target population of children nationally. The incidence of rotavirus gastroenteritis and the prevalence of circulating rotavirus strains has been monitored in three sentinel hospitals since June 2006. The average percentage of rotavirus positive cases among all children under 5 years old hospitalized for gastroenteritis during the pre-vaccine period (2006-2010) was 44%. This percentage dropped to 29%, 15% and 24% in the 3 years post vaccine introduction (2011, 2012 and 2013), which is a decline of 34%, 66%, and 45%, respectively. Declines in prevalence were greatest among children 0-1 years of age (53%) and were most prominent during the winter and autumn rotavirus season. The prevalence of the G2P[4] and G9P[8] genotype sharply increased in the post vaccine period (2011-2013) compared to the previous seasons (2006-2010). Rotavirus vaccines have reduced greatly the number of children hospitalized due to rotavirus infection at the three sentinel hospitals; it is however unclear if the predominance of G2P[4] and G9P[8] genotypes is related to the vaccine introduction, or if this is attributable to normal genotype fluctuations. Continued surveillance will be pivotal to answer this question in the future.

A universal infant rotavirus vaccine program in two delivery models: Effectiveness and adverse events following immunization

Rotavirus is the most common cause of diarrhea leading to hospitalization in young children. Rotavirus vaccines are available in Canada but have not been introduced in all provinces. In a controlled trial, 2 study sites (Prince Edward Island and the Capital District Health Authority (District 9, Nova Scotia) introduced universal rotavirus vaccine programs for infants at 2 and 4 months of age beginning 1 December 2010, using public health nurse or general practitioner-delivery models, respectively. A third site (Saint John, NB) served as the non-intervention control setting. Vaccine coverage, rotavirus hospitalizations, intussusception and all-cause diarrhea were monitored. A universal rotavirus vaccine program with >90% coverage was associated with reductions in rotavirus-associated hospitalizations (from a peak of 52.8 hospitalizations/100,000 population to 0 hospitalizations) in infants < 12 months and 1 to < 2 y of age 12 months after program implementation. No apparent reduction occurred in the site with vaccine coverage of < 40%, or in the non-intervention control site. No cases of intussusception were associated with vaccine receipt, and no increase in all-cause diarrhea was observed. A universal infant rotavirus vaccine program with high coverage was associated with reductions in rotavirus and no safety signals; no reduction was observed in settings with low vaccine coverage.

Bayesian parameter inference for dynamic infectious disease modelling: rotavirus in Germany

Understanding infectious disease dynamics using epidemic models based on ordinary differential equations requires the calibration of model parameters from data. A commonly used approach in practice to simplify this task is to fix many parameters on the basis of expert or literature information. However, this not only leaves the corresponding uncertainty unexamined but often also leads to biased inference for the remaining parameters because of dependence structures inherent in any given model. In the present work, we develop a Bayesian inference framework that lessens the reliance on such external parameter quantifications by pursuing a more data-driven calibration approach. This includes a novel focus on residual autocorrelation combined with model averaging techniques in order to reduce these estimates' dependence on the underlying model structure. We applied our methods to the modelling of age-stratified weekly rotavirus incidence data in Germany from 2001 to 2008 using a complex susceptible-infectious-susceptible-type model complemented by the stochastic reporting of new cases. As a result, we found the detection rate in the eastern federal states to be more than four times higher compared with that of the western federal states (19.0% vs 4.3%), and also the infectiousness of symptomatically infected individuals was estimated to be more than 10 times higher than that of asymptomatically infected individuals (95% credibility interval: 8.1–19.6). Not only do these findings give valuable epidemiological insight into the transmission processes, we were also able to examine the considerable impact on the model-predicted transmission dynamics when fixing parameters beforehand.

Molecular epidemiology of rotavirus in cats in the United Kingdom

Rotaviruses are leading causes of gastroenteritis in the young of many species. Molecular epidemiological studies in children suggest that interspecies transmission contributes to rotavirus strain diversity in people. However, population-based studies of rotaviruses in animals are few. We investigated the prevalence, risk factors for infection, and genetic diversity of rotavirus A in a cross-sectional survey of cats housed within 25 rescue catteries across the United Kingdom. Morning litter tray fecal samples were collected during the winter and summer in 2012 from all pens containing kittens and a random sample of those housing adult cats. Group A rotavirus RNA was detected by real-time reverse transcription-PCR, and positive samples were G and P genotyped using nested VP4 and VP7 PCR assays. A total of 1,727 fecal samples were collected from 1,105 pens. Overall, the prevalence of rotavirus was 3.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2 to 4.9%). Thirteen out of 25 (52%; 95% CI, 31.3 to 72.2%) centers housed at least one rotavirus-positive cat. The prevalence of rotavirus was associated with season (odds ratio, 14.8 [95% CI, 1.1 to 200.4]; P = 0.04) but not age or diarrhea. It was higher during the summer (4.7%; 95% CI, 1.2 to 8.3%) than in winter (0.8%; 95% CI, 0.2 to 1.5%). Asymptomatic epidemics of infection were detected in two centers. G genotypes were characterized for 19 (33.3%) of the 57 rotavirus-positive samples and P genotypes for 36 (59.7%). Two rotavirus genotypes were identified, G3P[9] and G6P[9]. This is the first population-based study of rotavirus in cats and the first report of feline G6P[9], which questions the previous belief that G6P[9] in people is of bovine origin.

Exceptionally low rotavirus incidence in the Netherlands in 2013/14 in the absence of rotavirus vaccination

An unexpected drop in rotavirus (RV) detections was observed in the Netherlands in 2014, without RV vaccination. The estimated decrease in RV detections and gastroenteritis consultations in under five year-olds, in January-April 2014, compared to the same months in previous years, was 72% and 36%, respectively. The low birth rate, mild winter, high RV incidence in the previous year and the introduction of RV vaccination in neighbouring countries may have contributed to this decrease.

The impact of coinfections and their simultaneous transmission on antigenic diversity and epidemic cycling of infectious diseases

Epidemic cycling in human infectious diseases is common; however, its underlying mechanisms have been poorly understood. Much effort has been made to search for external mechanisms. Multiple strains of an infectious agent were usually observed and coinfections were frequent; further, empirical evidence indicates the simultaneous transmission of coinfections. To explore intrinsic mechanisms for epidemic cycling, in this study we consider a multistrain Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible epidemic model by including coinfections and simultaneous transmission. We show that coinfections and their simultaneous transmission widen the parameter range for coexistence and coinfections become popular when strains enhance each other and the immunity wanes quickly. However, the total prevalence is nearly independent of these characteristics and approximated by that of one-strain model. With sufficient simultaneous transmission and antigenic diversity, cyclical epidemics can be generated even when strains interfere with each other by reducing infectivity. This indicates that strain interactions within coinfections and cross-immunity during subsequent infection provide a possible intrinsic mechanism for epidemic cycling.

Baseline burden of rotavirus disease in Sudan to monitor the impact of vaccination

BACKGROUND

In 2011, Sudan became the first low-income country in Africa to introduce a rotavirus vaccine. Prevaccine baseline data on rotavirus disease burden are crucial for monitoring the impact of this new vaccine program.

METHODS

We conducted active, hospital-based surveillance for rotavirus disease at 8 regional public hospitals in Sudan using a standard protocol recommended by the World Health Organization for 2 full years immediately preceding vaccine introduction. Cases were children <5 years hospitalized with gastroenteritis, defined as acute onset of 3 or more loose stools or 2 or more episodes of vomiting in a 24-hour period. Stool specimens from cases were tested for rotavirus using a commercially available assay.

RESULTS

From June 2009 to May 2011, rotavirus was detected in 3985 (36%) of 10,953 children hospitalized for gastroenteritis, with detection rates ranging from 25% to 48% at the 8 hospitals. Approximately 61% of the rotavirus hospitalizations occurred before 1 year of age and most (91%) occurred before 2 years of age. Rotavirus was detected year-round in Sudan with peaks during March to May and November to December. Applying rotavirus prevalence to national estimates of diarrhea events, we calculated 9800 deaths, 22,800 hospitalizations and 55,400 outpatient visits related to rotavirus per year among children <5 years of age in Sudan.

CONCLUSIONS

The high burden of rotavirus disease in Sudan indicates that the recently implemented vaccination program should substantially improve child health in Sudan. This nationwide rotavirus surveillance system will be an important platform for assessing the benefits and value of rotavirus vaccine in a developing country setting.

Rotavirus vaccines: successes and challenges

Since 2006, the availability of two new rotavirus vaccines has raised enthusiasm to consider the eventual control and elimination of severe rotavirus diarrhea through the global use of vaccines. Rotavirus remains the most severe cause of acute diarrhea in children worldwide responsible for several hundred thousands of deaths in low income countries and up to half of hospital admissions for diarrhea around the world. The new vaccines have been recommended by WHO for all infants and in more than 47 countries, their introduction into routine childhood immunization programs has led to a remarkable decline in hospital admissions and even deaths within 3 years of introduction. Challenges remain with issues of vaccine finance globally and the problem that these live oral vaccines perform less well in low income settings where they are needed most. Ongoing research that will accompany vaccine introduction might help address these issues of efficacy and new vaccines and novel financing schemes may both help make these vaccines universally available and affordable in the decade.