An experimental test of the independent action hypothesis in virus-insect pathosystems

Ambient carbon dioxide concentration correlates with SARS-CoV-2 aerostability and infection risk

An improved understanding of the underlying physicochemical properties of respiratory aerosol that influence viral infectivity may open new avenues to mitigate the transmission of respiratory diseases such as COVID-19. Previous studies have shown that an increase in the pH of respiratory aerosols following generation due to changes in the gas-particle partitioning of pH buffering bicarbonate ions and carbon dioxide is a significant factor in reducing SARS-CoV-2 infectivity. We show here that a significant increase in SARS-CoV-2 aerostability results from a moderate increase in the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (e.g. 800 ppm), an effect that is more marked than that observed for changes in relative humidity. We model the likelihood of COVID-19 transmission on the ambient concentration of CO2, concluding that even this moderate increase in CO2 concentration results in a significant increase in overall risk. These observations confirm the critical importance of ventilation and maintaining low CO2 concentrations in indoor environments for mitigating disease transmission. Moreover, the correlation of increased CO2 concentration with viral aerostability need to be better understood when considering the consequences of increases in ambient CO2 levels in our atmosphere.

From Microscopic Droplets to Macroscopic Crowds: Crossing the Scales in Models of Short-Range Respiratory Disease Transmission, with Application to COVID-19

Short-range exposure to airborne virus-laden respiratory droplets is an effective transmission route of respiratory diseases, as exemplified by Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). In order to assess the risks associated with this pathway in daily-life settings involving tens to hundreds of individuals, the chasm needs to be bridged between fluid dynamical simulations and population-scale epidemiological models. This is achieved by simulating droplet trajectories at the microscale in numerous ambient flows, coarse-graining their results into spatio-temporal maps of viral concentration around the emitter, and coupling these maps to field-data about pedestrian crowds in different scenarios (streets, train stations, markets, queues, and street cafés). At the individual scale, the results highlight the paramount importance of the velocity of the ambient air flow relative to the emitter's motion. This aerodynamic effect, which disperses infectious aerosols, prevails over all other environmental variables. At the crowd's scale, the method yields a ranking of the scenarios by the risks of new infections, dominated by the street cafés and then the outdoor market. While the effect of light winds on the qualitative ranking is fairly marginal, even the most modest air flows dramatically lower the quantitative rates of new infections.

Global public health implications of human exposure to viral contaminated water

Enteric viruses are common waterborne pathogens found in environmental water bodies contaminated with either raw or partially treated sewage discharge. Examples of these viruses include adenovirus, rotavirus, noroviruses, and other caliciviruses and enteroviruses like coxsackievirus and polioviruses. They have been linked with gastroenteritis, while some enteric viruses have also been implicated in more severe infections such as encephalitis, meningitis, hepatitis (hepatitis A and E viruses), cancer (polyomavirus), and myocarditis (enteroviruses). Therefore, this review presents information on the occurrence of enteric viruses of public health importance, diseases associated with human exposure to enteric viruses, assessment of their presence in contaminated water, and their removal in water and wastewater sources. In order to prevent illnesses associated with human exposure to viral contaminated water, we suggest the regular viral monitoring of treated wastewater before discharging it into the environment. Furthermore, we highlight the need for more research to focus on the development of more holistic disinfection methods that will inactivate waterborne viruses in municipal wastewater discharges, as this is highly needed to curtail the public health effects of human exposure to contaminated water. Moreover, such a method must be devoid of disinfection by-products that have mutagenic and carcinogenic potential.

Increased airborne transmission of COVID-19 with new variants, implications for health policies

New COVID-19 variants, either of higher viral load such as delta or higher contagiousness like omicron, can lead to higher airborne transmission than historical strains. This paper highlights their implications for health policies, based on a clear analytical understanding and modeling of the airborne contamination paths, of the dose following exposure, and the importance of the counting unit for pathogens, itself linked to the dose-response law. Using the counting unit of Wells, i.e. the quantum of contagium, we develop the conservation equation of quanta which allows deriving the value of the quantum concentration at steady state for a well-mixed room. The link with the monitoring concentration of carbon dioxide is made and used for a risk analysis of a variety of situations for which we collected CO2 time-series observations. The main conclusions of these observations are that 1) the present norms of ventilation, are both insufficient and not respected, especially in a variety of public premises, leading to high risk of contamination and that 2) air can often be considered well-mixed. Finally, we insist that public health policy in the field of airborne transmission should be based on a multi parameter analysis such as the time of exposure, the quantum production rate, mask wearing and the infector proportion in the population in order to evaluate the risk, considering the whole complexity of dose evaluation. Recognizing airborne transmission requires thinking in terms of time of exposure rather than in terms of proximal distance.

Empirical estimates of the mutation rate for an alphabaculovirus

Mutation rates are of key importance for understanding evolutionary processes and predicting their outcomes. Empirical mutation rate estimates are available for a number of RNA viruses, but few are available for DNA viruses, which tend to have larger genomes. Whilst some viruses have very high mutation rates, lower mutation rates are expected for viruses with large genomes to ensure genome integrity. Alphabaculoviruses are insect viruses with large genomes and often have high levels of polymorphism, suggesting high mutation rates despite evidence of proofreading activity by the replication machinery. Here, we report an empirical estimate of the mutation rate per base per strand copying (s/n/r) of Autographa californica multiple nucleopolyhedrovirus (AcMNPV). To avoid biases due to selection, we analyzed mutations that occurred in a stable, non-functional genomic insert after five serial passages in Spodoptera exigua larvae. Our results highlight that viral demography and the stringency of mutation calling affect mutation rate estimates, and that using a population genetic simulation model to make inferences can mitigate the impact of these processes on estimates of mutation rate. We estimated a mutation rate of μ = 1×10⁻⁷ s/n/r when applying the most stringent criteria for mutation calling, and estimates of up to μ = 5×10⁻⁷ s/n/r when relaxing these criteria. The rates at which different classes of mutations accumulate provide good evidence for neutrality of mutations occurring within the inserted region. We therefore present a robust approach for mutation rate estimation for viruses with stable genomes, and strong evidence of a much lower alphabaculovirus mutation rate than supposed based on the high levels of polymorphism observed.

Virus populations can evolve rapidly, driven by the large number of mutations that occur during virus replication. It is challenging to measure mutation rates because selection will affect which mutations are observed: beneficial mutations are overrepresented in virus populations, while deleterious mutations are selected against and therefore underrepresented. Few mutation rates have been estimated for viruses with large DNA genomes, and there are no estimates for any insect virus. Here, we estimate the mutation rate for an alphabaculovirus, a virus that infects caterpillars and has a large, 134 kilobase pair DNA genome. To ensure that selection did not bias our estimate of mutation rate, we studied which mutations occurred in a large artificial region inserted into the virus genome, where mutations did not affect viral fitness. We deep sequenced evolved virus populations, and compared the distribution of observed mutants to predictions from a simulation model to estimate mutation rate. We found evidence for a relatively low mutation rate, of one mutation in every 10 million bases replicated. This estimate is in line with expectations for a DNA virus with self-correcting replication machinery and a large genome.

Coocclusion of Helicoverpa armigera Single Nucleopolyhedrovirus (HearSNPV) and Helicoverpa armigera Multiple Nucleopolyhedrovirus (HearMNPV): Pathogenicity and Stability in Homologous and Heterologous Hosts

Helicoverpa armigera single nucleopolyhedrovirus (HearSNPV) is a virulent pathogen of lepidopterans in the genera Heliothis and Helicoverpa, whereas Helicoverpa armigera multiple nucleopolyhedrovirus (HearSNPV) is a different virus species with a broader host range. This study aimed to examine the consequences of coocclusion of HearSNPV and HearMNPV on the pathogenicity, stability and host range of mixed-virus occlusion bodies (OBs). HearSNPV OBs were approximately 6-fold more pathogenic than HearMNPV OBs, showed faster killing by approximately 13 h, and were approximately 45% more productive in terms of OB production per larva. For coocclusion, H. armigera larvae were first inoculated with HearMNPV OBs and subsequently inoculated with HearSNPV OBs at intervals of 0–72 h after the initial inoculation. When the interval between inoculations was 12–24 h, OBs collected from virus-killed insects were found to comprise 41–57% of HearSNPV genomes, but the prevalence of HearSNPV genomes was greatly reduced (3–4%) at later time points. Quantitative PCR (qPCR) analysis revealed the presence of HearSNPV genomes in a small fraction of multinucleocapsid ODVs representing 0.47–0.88% of the genomes quantified in ODV samples, indicating that both viruses had replicated in coinfected host cells. End-point dilution assays on ODVs from cooccluded mixed-virus OBs confirmed the presence of both viruses in 41.9–55.6% of wells that were predicted to have been infected by a single ODV. A control experiment indicated that this result was unlikely to be due to the adhesion of HearSNPV ODVs to HearMNPV ODVs or accidental contamination during ODV band extraction. Therefore, the disparity between the qPCR and end-point dilution estimates of the prevalence of mixed-virus ODVs likely reflected virus-specific differences in replication efficiency in cell culture and the higher infectivity of pseudotyped ODVs that were produced in coinfected parental cells. Bioassays on H. armigera, Spodoptera frugiperda and Mamestra brassicae larvae revealed that mixed-virus OBs were capable of infecting heterologous hosts, but relative potency values largely reflected the proportion of HearMNPV present in each mixed-virus preparation. The cooccluded mixtures were unstable in serial passage; HearSNPV rapidly dominated during passage in H. armigera whereas HearMNPV rapidly dominated during passage in the heterologous hosts. We conclude that mixed-virus coocclusion technology may be useful for producing precise mixtures of viruses with host range properties suitable for the control of complexes of lepidopteran pests in particular crops, although this requires validation by field testing.

Nucleopolyhedrovirus Coocclusion Technology: A New Concept in the Development of Biological Insecticides

Nucleopolyhedroviruses (NPV, Baculoviridae) that infect lepidopteran pests have an established record as safe and effective biological insecticides. Here, we describe a new approach for the development of NPV-based insecticides. This technology takes advantage of the unique way in which these viruses are transmitted as collective infectious units, and the genotypic diversity present in natural virus populations. A ten-step procedure is described involving genotypic variant selection, mixing, coinfection and intraspecific coocclusion of variants within viral occlusion bodies. Using two examples, we demonstrate how this approach can be used to produce highly pathogenic virus preparations for pest control. As restricted host range limits the uptake of NPV-based insecticides, this technology has recently been adapted to produce custom-designed interspecific mixtures of viruses that can be applied to control complexes of lepidopteran pests on particular crops, as long as a shared host species is available for virus production. This approach to the development of NPV-based insecticides has the potential to be applied across a broad range of NPV-pest pathosystems.

Model-based assessment of the risks of viral transmission in non-confined crowds

This work assesses the risks of Covid-19 spread in diverse daily-life situations involving crowds of maskless pedestrians, mostly outdoors. More concretely, we develop a method to infer the global number of new infections from patchy observations, by coupling ad hoc spatial models for disease transmission via respiratory droplets to detailed field-data about pedestrian trajectories and head orientations. This allows us to rank the investigated situations by the infection risks that they present; importantly, the obtained hierarchy of risks is very largely conserved across transmission models: Street cafés present the largest average rate of new infections caused by an attendant, followed by busy outdoor markets, and then metro and train stations, whereas the risks incurred while walking on fairly busy streets are comparatively quite low. While our models only approximate the actual transmission risks, their converging predictions lend credence to these findings. In situations with a moving crowd, density is the main factor influencing the estimated infection rate. Finally, our study explores the efficiency of street and venue redesigns in mitigating the viral spread: While the benefits of enforcing one-way foot traffic in (wide) walkways are unclear, changing the geometry of queues substantially affects disease transmission risks.

Breathing, speaking, coughing or sneezing: What drives transmission of SARS-CoV-2?

The SARS-CoV-2 virus is highly contagious, as demonstrated by numerous well-documented superspreading events. The infection commonly starts in the upper respiratory tract (URT) but can migrate to the lower respiratory tract (LRT) and other organs, often with severe consequences. Whereas LRT infection can lead to shedding of virus via breath and cough droplets, URT infection enables shedding via abundant speech droplets. Their viral load can be high in carriers with mild or no symptoms, an observation linked to the abundance of SARS-CoV-2-susceptible cells in the oral cavity epithelium. Expelled droplets rapidly lose water through evaporation, with the smaller ones transforming into long-lived aerosol. Although the largest speech droplets can carry more virions, they are few in number, fall to the ground rapidly and therefore play a relatively minor role in transmission. Of more concern is small speech aerosol, which can descend deep into the LRT and cause severe disease. However, since their total volume is small, the amount of virus they carry is low. Nevertheless, in closed environments with inadequate ventilation, they can accumulate, which elevates the risk of direct LRT infection. Of most concern is the large fraction of speech aerosol that is intermediate-sized because it remains suspended in air for minutes and can be transported over considerable distances by convective air currents. The abundance of this speech-generated aerosol, combined with its high viral load in pre- and asymptomatic individuals, strongly implicates airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 through speech as the primary contributor to its rapid spread.

Separation and Disinfection of Contagious Aerosols from the Perspective of SARS-CoV-2

An assessment was performed on methods of separating and disinfecting airborne droplet nuclei containing viruses, such as SARS-CoV-2. The droplet nuclei originate from evaporating aerosols emitted by the coughing, singing, sneezing, etc. of infected humans. Based on empirical data and theoretical analysis, we successively determined: (i) the particle number distribution of nuclei versus the nucleus diameter, (ii) the statistical distribution of the viral content in the droplet nuclei starting from a uniform random distribution of viruses in the mucus, (iii) the particle number distribution of droplet nuclei containing at least one virus particle, and (iv) the effectiveness of methods for removing and disinfecting nuclei containing one or more virus particles from indoor air; viz., ventilation with fresh air, filtering with porous media, such as HEPA, and centrifugal separation and simultaneous disinfection, particularly with a rotational particle separator (RPS). Indoor aerosol removal with RPS supplemented with HEPA to arrest tiny volumes of very small particles was found to be the most effective. It is as good as particle removal through ventilation with clean air over long periods of time. An RPS facilitates direct elimination of viruses in the collected nuclei by flushing with a disinfection liquid. The components of an RPS are recyclable. Combining HEPA with an RPS extends the service time of HEPA by almost two orders of magnitude compared to the relatively short service time of stand-alone HEPA filters.

Coalescent models derived from birth-death processes

A coalescent model of a sample of size n is derived from a birth-death process that originates at a random time in the past from a single founder individual. Over time, the descendants of the founder evolve into a population of large (infinite) size from which a sample of size n is taken. The parameters and time of the birth-death process are scaled in N₀, the size of the present-day population, while letting N₀→∞, similarly to how the standard Kingman coalescent process arises from the Wright-Fisher model. The model is named the Limit Birth-Death (LBD) coalescent model. Simulations from the LBD coalescent model with sample size n are computationally slow compared to standard coalescent models. Therefore, we suggest different approximations to the LBD coalescent model assuming the population size is a deterministic function of time rather than a stochastic process. Furthermore, we introduce a hybrid LBD coalescent model, that combines the exactness of the LBD coalescent model model with the speed of the approximations.

Dose relationships can exacerbate, mute, or reverse the impact of heterospecific host density on infection prevalence

The likelihood an individual becomes infected depends on the community in which it is embedded. For environmentally transmitted parasites, host community composition can alter host density, the density of parasites that hosts encounter in the environment, and the dose to which hosts are subsequently exposed. While some multi-host theory incorporates some of these factors (e.g., competition among hosts), it does not currently consider the nonlinear relationships between parasite exposure dose and per-propagule infectivity (dose-infectivity relationships), between exposure dose and infected host mortality (dose-mortality relationships), and between exposure dose and parasite propagule excretion (dose-excretion relationships). This makes it difficult to predict the impact of host species on one another's likelihood of infection. To understand the implications of these nonlinear dose relationships for multi-host communities, we first performed a meta-analysis on published dose-infectivity experiments to quantify the proportion of accelerating, linear, or decelerating dose-infectivity relationships; we found that most experiments demonstrated decelerating dose-infectivity relationships. We then explored how dose-infectivity, dose-mortality, and dose-excretion relationships might alter the impact of heterospecific host density on infectious propagule density, infection prevalence, and density of a focal host using two-host, one-parasite models. We found that dose relationships either decreased the magnitude of the impact of heterospecific host density on propagule density and infection prevalence via negative feedback loops (decelerating dose-infectivity relationships, positive dose-mortality relationships, and negative dose-excretion relationships), or increased the magnitude of the impact of heterospecific host density on infection prevalence via positive feedback loops (accelerating dose-infectivity relationships and positive dose-excretion relationships). Further, positive dose-mortality relationships resulted in hosts that traditionally decrease disease (e.g., low competence, strong competitors) increasing infection prevalence, and vice versa. Finally, we found that dose relationships can create positive feedback loops that facilitate friendly competition (i.e., increased heterospecific density has a positive effect on focal host density because the reduction in disease outweighs the negative effects of interspecific competition). This suggests that without taking dose relationships into account, we may incorrectly predict the effect of heterospecific host interactions, and thus host community composition, on environmentally transmitted parasites.

Why are viral genomes so fragile? The bottleneck hypothesis

If they undergo new mutations at each replication cycle, why are RNA viral genomes so fragile, with most mutations being either strongly deleterious or lethal? Here we provide theoretical and numerical evidence for the hypothesis that genetic fragility is partly an evolutionary response to the multiple population bottlenecks experienced by viral populations at various stages of their life cycles. Modelling within-host viral populations as multi-type branching processes, we show that mutational fragility lowers the rate at which Muller’s ratchet clicks and increases the survival probability through multiple bottlenecks. In the context of a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered epidemiological model, we find that the attack rate of fragile viral strains can exceed that of more robust strains, particularly at low infectivities and high mutation rates. Our findings highlight the importance of demographic events such as transmission bottlenecks in shaping the genetic architecture of viral pathogens.

Given that most mutations are deleterious, high mutation rates carry a significant evolutionary cost. To reduce this burden, an obvious evolutionary solution would be to reduce the fitness cost of mutations by becoming more robust; this solution is indeed selected in populations of constantly large size. Here, we show that when populations regularly experience bottlenecks, as viruses do upon transmission to a new host, a less obvious solution becomes more viable: namely, to increase the fitness cost of mutations so that unfit mutants are less likely to fix at each passage. This could explain why viruses—especially RNA viruses—do in fact have very fragile genomes.

Computational characterization of inhaled droplet transport to the nasopharynx

How human respiratory physiology and the transport phenomena associated with inhaled airflow in the upper airway proceed to impact transmission of SARS-CoV-2, leading to the initial infection, stays an open question. An answer can help determine the susceptibility of an individual on exposure to a COVID-2019 carrier and can also provide a preliminary projection of the still-unknown infectious dose for the disease. Computational fluid mechanics enabled tracking of respiratory transport in medical imaging-based anatomic domains shows that the regional deposition of virus-laden inhaled droplets at the initial nasopharyngeal infection site peaks for the droplet size range of approximately 2.5-19 [Formula: see text]. Through integrating the numerical findings on inhaled transmission with sputum assessment data from hospitalized COVID-19 patients and earlier measurements of ejecta size distribution generated during regular speech, this study further reveals that the number of virions that may go on to establish the SARS-CoV-2 infection in a subject could merely be in the order of hundreds.

The world is its own best model: modelling and future pandemic planning in dentistry

The coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has and continues to create a huge number of challenges to the global economy and its associated healthcare systems, including dentistry. In the early stages, we have had to rely on mathematical modelling and plans developed from previous healthcare emergencies. As the emergency develops, it is vitally important that policymakers understand the difference between the science and the real-world evidence so that policy can adapt rapidly to the changing environment. Effective management of future crises will require open channels of communication across the whole profession, not only to collect, clean, curate and evaluate data but also to assess the benefits and harms of any policy change.

The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are not evenly spread throughout the population.

Errors in pandemic modelling are due to a combination of biased assumptions, and an underestimation of the variance and noise in real-world data.

Scientific research must be backed up by real-world evidence before it can be considered valid.

As evidence accumulates, policymakers should rapidly update guidance by keeping channels of communication open and frequently updated.

Virions and respiratory droplets in air: Diffusion, drift, and contact with the epithelium

Some infections, including e.g. influenza and currently active COVID 19, may be transmitted via air during sneezing, coughing, and talking. This pathway occurs via diffusion and gravity-induced drift of single virions and respiratory droplets consisting primarily of water, including small fraction of nonvolatile matter, and containing virions. These processes are accompanied by water evaporation resulting in reduction of the droplet size. The manifold of information concerning these steps is presented in textbooks and articles not related to virology and the focus is there frequently on biologically irrelevant conditions and/or droplet sizes. In this brief review, we systematically describe the behavior of virions and virion-carrying droplets in air with emphasis on various regimes of diffusion, drift, and evaporation, and estimate the rates of all these steps under virologically relevant conditions. In addition, we discuss the kinetic aspects of the first steps of infection after attachment of virions or virion-carrying droplets to the epithelium, i.e., virion diffusion in the mucus and periciliary layers, penetration into the cells, and the early stage of replication. The presentation is oriented to virologists who are interested in the corresponding physics and to physicists who are interested in application of the physics to virology.

Cooperative nature of viral replication

The ability of viruses to infect their hosts depends on rapid dissemination following transmission. The notion that viral particles function as independent propagules has been challenged by recent observations suggesting that viral aggregates show enhanced infectivity and faster spread. However, these observations remain poorly understood. Here, we show that viral replication is a cooperative process, such that entry of multiple viral genome copies into the same cell disproportionately increases short-term viral progeny production. This cooperativity arises from the positive feedback established between replication templates and virus-encoded products involved in replication and should be a general feature of viruses. We develop a simple model that captures this effect, verify that cooperativity also emerges in more complex models for specific human viruses, validate our predictions experimentally using different mammalian viruses, and discuss the implications of cooperative replication for viral fitness.

Analyzing the dominant SARS-CoV-2 transmission routes toward an ab initio disease spread model

Identifying the relative importance of the different transmission routes of the SARS-CoV-2 virus is an urgent research priority. To that end, the different transmission routes and their role in determining the evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic are analyzed in this work. The probability of infection caused by inhaling virus-laden droplets (initial ejection diameters between 0.5 µm and 750 µm, therefore including both airborne and ballistic droplets) and the corresponding desiccated nuclei that mostly encapsulate the virions post droplet evaporation are individually calculated. At typical, air-conditioned yet quiescent indoor space, for average viral loading, cough droplets of initial diameter between 10 µm and 50 µm are found to have the highest infection probability. However, by the time they are inhaled, the diameters reduce to about 1/6th of their initial diameters. While the initially near unity infection probability due to droplets rapidly decays within the first 25 s, the small yet persistent infection probability of desiccated nuclei decays appreciably only by O ( 1000 s ) , assuming that the virus sustains equally well within the dried droplet nuclei as in the droplets. Combined with molecular collision theory adapted to calculate the frequency of contact between the susceptible population and the droplet/nuclei cloud, infection rate constants are derived ab initio, leading to a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered-deceased model applicable for any respiratory event-vector combination. The viral load, minimum infectious dose, sensitivity of the virus half-life to the phase of its vector, and dilution of the respiratory jet/puff by the entraining air are shown to mechanistically determine specific physical modes of transmission and variation in the basic reproduction numberR 0 from first-principles calculations.

The airborne lifetime of small speech droplets and their potential importance in SARS-CoV-2 transmission

Speech droplets generated by asymptomatic carriers of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are increasingly considered to be a likely mode of disease transmission. Highly sensitive laser light scattering observations have revealed that loud speech can emit thousands of oral fluid droplets per second. In a closed, stagnant air environment, they disappear from the window of view with time constants in the range of 8 to 14 min, which corresponds to droplet nuclei of ca. 4 μm diameter, or 12- to 21-μm droplets prior to dehydration. These observations confirm that there is a substantial probability that normal speaking causes airborne virus transmission in confined environments.

The airborne lifetime of small speech droplets and their potential importance in SARS-CoV-2 transmission

Speech droplets generated by asymptomatic carriers of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are increasingly considered to be a likely mode of disease transmission. Highly sensitive laser light scattering observations have revealed that loud speech can emit thousands of oral fluid droplets per second. In a closed, stagnant air environment, they disappear from the window of view with time constants in the range of 8 to 14 min, which corresponds to droplet nuclei of ca. 4 μm diameter, or 12- to 21-μm droplets prior to dehydration. These observations confirm that there is a substantial probability that normal speaking causes airborne virus transmission in confined environments.

The airborne lifetime of small speech droplets and their potential importance in SARS-CoV-2 transmission

Speech droplets generated by asymptomatic carriers of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are increasingly considered to be a likely mode of disease transmission. Highly sensitive laser light scattering observations have revealed that loud speech can emit thousands of oral fluid droplets per second. In a closed, stagnant air environment, they disappear from the window of view with time constants in the range of 8 to 14 min, which corresponds to droplet nuclei of ca. 4 μm diameter, or 12- to 21-μm droplets prior to dehydration. These observations confirm that there is a substantial probability that normal speaking causes airborne virus transmission in confined environments.

Modeling multipartite virus evolution: the genome formula facilitates rapid adaptation to heterogeneous environments†

Multipartite viruses have two or more genome segments, and package different segments into different particle types. Although multipartition is thought to have a cost for virus transmission, its benefits are not clear. Recent experimental work has shown that the equilibrium frequency of viral genome segments, the setpoint genome formula (SGF), can be unbalanced and host-species dependent. These observations have reinvigorated the hypothesis that changes in genome-segment frequencies can lead to changes in virus-gene expression that might be adaptive. Here we explore this hypothesis by developing models of bipartite virus infection, leading to a threefold contribution. First, we show that the SGF depends on the cellular multiplicity of infection (MOI), when the requirements for infection clash with optimizing the SGF for virus-particle yield per cell. Second, we find that convergence on the SGF is very rapid, often occurring within a few cellular rounds of infection. Low and intermediate MOIs lead to faster convergence on the SGF. For low MOIs, this effect occurs because of the requirements for infection, whereas for intermediate MOIs this effect is also due to the high levels of variation generated in the genome formula (GF). Third, we explored the conditions under which a bipartite virus could outcompete a monopartite one. As the heterogeneity between environments and specificity of gene-expression requirements for each environment increased, the bipartite virus was more likely to outcompete the monopartite virus. Under some conditions, changes in the GF helped to exclude the monopartite competitor, highlighting the versatility of the GF. Our results show the inextricable relationship between MOI and the SGF, and suggest that under some conditions, the cost of multipartition can be outweighed by its benefits for the rapid tuning of viral gene expression.

Identification of Loci Associated with Enhanced Virulence in Spodoptera litura Nucleopolyhedrovirus Isolates Using Deep Sequencing

Spodoptera litura is an emerging pest insect in cotton and arable crops in Central Asia. To explore the possibility of using baculoviruses as biological control agents instead of chemical pesticides, in a previous study we characterized a number of S. litura nucleopolyhedrovirus (SpltNPV) isolates from Pakistan. We found significant differences in speed of kill, an important property of a biological control agent. Here we set out to understand the genetic basis of these differences in speed of kill, by comparing the genome of the fast-killing SpltNPV-Pak-TAX1 isolate with that of the slow-killing SpltNPV-Pak-BNG isolate. These two isolates and the SpltNPV-G2 reference strain from China were deep sequenced with Illumina. As expected, the two Pakistani isolates were closely related with >99% sequence identity, whereas the Chinese isolate was more distantly related. We identified two loci that may be associated with the fast action of the SpltNPV-Pak-TAX1 isolate. First, an analysis of rates of synonymous and non-synonymous mutations identified neutral to positive selection on open reading frame (ORF) 122, encoding a viral fibroblast growth factor (vFGF) that is known to affect virulence in other baculoviruses. Second, the homologous repeat region hr17, a putative enhancer of transcription and origin of replication, is absent in SpltNPV-Pak-TAX1 suggesting it may also affect virulence. Additionally, we found there is little genetic variation within both Pakistani isolates, and we identified four genes under positive selection in both isolates that may have played a role in adaptation of SpltNPV to conditions in Central Asia. Our results contribute to the understanding of the enhanced activity of SpltNPV-Pak-TAX1, and may help to select better SpltNPV isolates for the control of S. litura in Pakistan and elsewhere.

Genetic Variation and Biological Activity of Two Closely Related Alphabaculoviruses during Serial Passage in Permissive and Semi-Permissive Heterologous Hosts

Phylogenetic analyses suggest that Mamestra brassicae multiple nucleopolyhedrovirus (MbMNPV) and Helicoverpa armigera multiple nucleopolyhedrovirus (HearMNPV) may be strains of the same virus species. Most of the studies comparing their biological activities have been performed in their homologous hosts. A comparison of host range and stability in alternative hosts was performed. The host range of these viruses was compared using high concentrations of inoculum to inoculate second instars of six species of Lepidoptera. One semi-permissive host (Spodoptera littoralis) and one permissive host (S. exigua) were then selected and used to perform six serial passages involving a concentration corresponding to the ~25% lethal concentration for both viruses. Restriction endonuclease analysis showed fragment length polymorphisms in every host-virus system studied. In S. littoralis, serial passage of MbMNPV resulted in decreased pathogenicity and an increase in speed-of-kill, whereas no significant changes were detected for HearMNPV with respect to the initial inoculum. In contrast, both viruses showed a similar trend in S. exigua. These results highlight the low genetic diversity and a high phenotypic stability of HearMNPV with respect to the original inoculum after six successive passages in both insect hosts. This study concludes that host-baculovirus interactions during serial passage are complex and the process of adaptation to a novel semi-permissive host is far from predictable.

Quantitative analysis of the dose-response of white spot syndrome virus in shrimp

White spot syndrome virus (WSSV) is an important cause of mortality and economic losses in shrimp farming. Although WSSV-induced mortality is virus dose dependent and WSSV infection does not necessarily lead to mortality, the relationships between virus-particle dose, infection and mortality have not been analysed quantitatively. Here, we explored WSSV dose-response by a combination of experiments, modelling and meta-analysis. We performed dose-response experiments in Penaeus vannamei postlarvae, recorded host mortality and detected WSSV infection. When we fitted infection models to these data, two models-differing in whether they incorporated heterogeneous host susceptibility to the virus or not-were supported for two independent experiments. To determine the generality of these results, we reanalysed published data sets and then performed a meta-analysis. We found that WSSV dose-response kinetics is indeed variable over experiments. We could not clearly identify which specific infection model has the most support by meta-analysis, but we argue that these results also are most concordant with a model incorporating varying levels of heterogeneous host susceptibility to WSSV. We have identified suitable models for analysing WSSV dose-response, which can elucidate the most basic virus-host interactions and help to avoid underestimating WSSV infection at low virus doses.

Effects of multiple sources of genetic drift on pathogen variation within hosts

Changes in pathogen genetic variation within hosts alter the severity and spread of infectious diseases, with important implications for clinical disease and public health. Genetic drift may play a strong role in shaping pathogen variation, but analyses of drift in pathogens have oversimplified pathogen population dynamics, either by considering dynamics only at a single scale-such as within hosts or between hosts-or by making drastic simplifying assumptions, for example, that host immune systems can be ignored or that transmission bottlenecks are complete. Moreover, previous studies have used genetic data to infer the strength of genetic drift, whereas we test whether the genetic drift imposed by pathogen population processes can be used to explain genetic data. We first constructed and parameterized a mathematical model of gypsy moth baculovirus dynamics that allows genetic drift to act within and between hosts. We then quantified the genome-wide diversity of baculovirus populations within each of 143 field-collected gypsy moth larvae using Illumina sequencing. Finally, we determined whether the genetic drift imposed by host-pathogen population dynamics in our model explains the levels of pathogen diversity in our data. We found that when the model allows drift to act at multiple scales-including within hosts, between hosts, and between years-it can accurately reproduce the data, but when the effects of drift are simplified by neglecting transmission bottlenecks and stochastic variation in virus replication within hosts, the model fails. A de novo mutation model and a purifying selection model similarly fail to explain the data. Our results show that genetic drift can play a strong role in determining pathogen variation and that mathematical models that account for pathogen population growth at multiple scales of biological organization can be used to explain this variation.

Antagonistic Microbial Interactions: Contributions and Potential Applications for Controlling Pathogens in the Aquatic Systems

Despite the active and intense treatment of wastewater, pathogenic microorganisms and viruses are frequently introduced into the aquatic environment. For most human pathogens, however, this is a rather hostile place, where starvation, continuous inactivation, and decay generally occur, rather than successful reproduction. Nevertheless, a great diversity of the pathogenic microorganisms can be detected, in particular, in the surface waters receiving wastewater. Pathogen survival depends majorly on abiotic factors such as irradiation, changes in water ionic strength, temperature, and redox state. In addition, inactivation is enhanced by the biotic interactions in the environment. Although knowledge of the antagonistic biotic interactions has been available since a long time, certain underlying processes and mechanisms still remain unclear. Others are well-appreciated and increasingly are applied to the present research. Our review compiles and discusses the presently known biotic interactions between autochthonous microbes and pathogens introduced into the aquatic environment, including protozoan grazing, virus-induced bacterial cell lysis, antimicrobial substances, and predatory bacteria. An overview is provided on the present knowledge, as well as on the obvious research gaps. Individual processes that appear promising for future applications in the aquatic environment are presented and discussed.

The Operophtera brumata Nucleopolyhedrovirus (OpbuNPV) Represents an Early, Divergent Lineage within Genus Alphabaculovirus

Operophtera brumata nucleopolyhedrovirus (OpbuNPV) infects the larvae of the winter moth, Operophtera brumata. As part of an effort to explore the pesticidal potential of OpbuNPV, an isolate of this virus from Massachusetts (USA)-OpbuNPV-MA-was characterized by electron microscopy of OpbuNPV occlusion bodies (OBs) and by sequencing of the viral genome. The OBs of OpbuNPV-MA consisted of irregular polyhedra and contained virions consisting of a single rod-shaped nucleocapsid within each envelope. Presumptive cypovirus OBs were also detected in sections of the OB preparation. The OpbuNPV-MA genome assembly yielded a circular contig of 119,054 bp and was found to contain little genetic variation, with most polymorphisms occurring at a frequency of < 6%. A total of 130 open reading frames (ORFs) were annotated, including the 38 core genes of Baculoviridae, along with five homologous repeat (hr) regions. The results of BLASTp and phylogenetic analysis with selected ORFs indicated that OpbuNPV-MA is not closely related to other alphabaculoviruses. Phylogenies based on concatenated core gene amino acid sequence alignments placed OpbuNPV-MA on a basal branch lying outside other alphabaculovirus clades. These results indicate that OpbuNPV-MA represents a divergent baculovirus lineage that appeared early during the diversification of genus Alphabaculovirus.

Transmission Bottleneck Size Estimation from Pathogen Deep-Sequencing Data, with an Application to Human Influenza A Virus

The bottleneck governing infectious disease transmission describes the size of the pathogen population transferred from the donor to the recipient host. Accurate quantification of the bottleneck size is particularly important for rapidly evolving pathogens such as influenza virus, as narrow bottlenecks reduce the amount of transferred viral genetic diversity and, thus, may decrease the rate of viral adaptation. Previous studies have estimated bottleneck sizes governing viral transmission by using statistical analyses of variants identified in pathogen sequencing data. These analyses, however, did not account for variant calling thresholds and stochastic viral replication dynamics within recipient hosts. Because these factors can skew bottleneck size estimates, we introduce a new method for inferring bottleneck sizes that accounts for these factors. Through the use of a simulated data set, we first show that our method, based on beta-binomial sampling, accurately recovers transmission bottleneck sizes, whereas other methods fail to do so. We then apply our method to a data set of influenza A virus (IAV) infections for which viral deep-sequencing data from transmission pairs are available. We find that the IAV transmission bottleneck size estimates in this study are highly variable across transmission pairs, while the mean bottleneck size of 196 virions is consistent with a previous estimate for this data set. Furthermore, regression analysis shows a positive association between estimated bottleneck size and donor infection severity, as measured by temperature. These results support findings from experimental transmission studies showing that bottleneck sizes across transmission events can be variable and influenced in part by epidemiological factors.IMPORTANCE The transmission bottleneck size describes the size of the pathogen population transferred from the donor to the recipient host and may affect the rate of pathogen adaptation within host populations. Recent advances in sequencing technology have enabled bottleneck size estimation from pathogen genetic data, although there is not yet a consistency in the statistical methods used. Here, we introduce a new approach to infer the bottleneck size that accounts for variant identification protocols and noise during pathogen replication. We show that failing to account for these factors leads to an underestimation of bottleneck sizes. We apply this method to an existing data set of human influenza virus infections, showing that transmission is governed by a loose, but highly variable, transmission bottleneck whose size is positively associated with the severity of infection of the donor. Beyond advancing our understanding of influenza virus transmission, we hope that this work will provide a standardized statistical approach for bottleneck size estimation for viral pathogens.

Matters of Size: Genetic Bottlenecks in Virus Infection and Their Potential Impact on Evolution

For virus infections of multicellular hosts, narrow genetic bottlenecks during transmission and within-host spread appear to be widespread. These bottlenecks will affect the maintenance of genetic variation in a virus population and the prevalence of mixed-strain infections, thereby ultimately determining the strength with which different random forces act during evolution. Here we consider different approaches for estimating bottleneck sizes and weigh their merits. We then review quantitative estimates of bottleneck size during cellular infection, within-host spread, horizontal transmission, and finally vertical transmission. In most cases we find that bottlenecks do regularly occur, although in many cases they appear to be virion-concentration dependent. Finally, we consider the evolutionary implications of genetic bottlenecks during virus infection. Although on average strong bottlenecks will lead to declines in fitness, we consider a number of scenarios in which bottlenecks could also be advantageous for viruses.

Trade-offs and mixed infections in an obligate-killing insect pathogen

Natural populations of pathogens are frequently composed of numerous interacting strains. Understanding what maintains this diversity remains a key focus of research in disease ecology. In addition, within-host pathogen dynamics can have a strong impact on both infection outcome and the evolution of pathogen virulence, and thus, understanding the impact of pathogen diversity is important for disease management. We compared eight genetically distinguishable variants from Spodoptera exempta nucleopolyhedrovirus (SpexNPV) isolated from the African armyworm, Spodoptera exempta. NPVs are obligate killers, and the vast majority of transmission stages are not released until after the host has died. The NPV variants differed significantly in their virulence and could be clustered into two groups based on their dose-response curves. They also differed in their speed of kill and productivity (transmission potential) for S. exempta. The mixed-genotype wild-type (WT) SpexNPV, from which each variant was isolated, was significantly more virulent than any individual variant and its mean mortality rate was within the fastest group of individual variants. However, the WT virus produced fewer new infectious stages than any single variant, which might reflect competition among the variants. A survival analysis, combining the mortality and speed of kill data, confirmed the superiority of the genetically mixed WT virus over any single variant. Spodoptera exempta larvae infected with WT SpexNPV were predicted to die 2·7 and 1·9 times faster than insects infected with isolates from either of the two clusters of genotypes. Theory suggests that there are likely to be trade-offs between pathogen fitness traits. Across all larvae, there was a negative linear relationship between virus yield and speed of kill, such that more rapid host death carried the cost of producing fewer transmission stages. We also found a near-significant relationship for the same trend at the intervariant level. However, there was no evidence for a significant relationship between the induced level of mortality and transmission potential (virus yield) or speed of kill.

Bacterial Cooperation Causes Systematic Errors in Pathogen Risk Assessment due to the Failure of the Independent Action Hypothesis

The Independent Action Hypothesis (IAH) states that pathogenic individuals (cells, spores, virus particles etc.) behave independently of each other, so that each has an independent probability of causing systemic infection or death. The IAH is not just of basic scientific interest; it forms the basis of our current estimates of infectious disease risk in humans. Despite the important role of the IAH in managing disease interventions for food and water-borne pathogens, experimental support for the IAH in bacterial pathogens is indirect at best. Moreover since the IAH was first proposed, cooperative behaviors have been discovered in a wide range of microorganisms, including many pathogens. A fundamental principle of cooperation is that the fitness of individuals is affected by the presence and behaviors of others, which is contrary to the assumption of independent action. In this paper, we test the IAH in Bacillus thuringiensis (B.t), a widely occurring insect pathogen that releases toxins that benefit others in the inoculum, infecting the diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella. By experimentally separating B.t. spores from their toxins, we demonstrate that the IAH fails because there is an interaction between toxin and spore effects on mortality, where the toxin effect is synergistic and cannot be accommodated by independence assumptions. Finally, we show that applying recommended IAH dose-response models to high dose data leads to systematic overestimation of mortality risks at low doses, due to the presence of synergistic pathogen interactions. Our results show that cooperative secretions can easily invalidate the IAH, and that such mechanistic details should be incorporated into pathogen risk analysis.

Testing the independent action hypothesis of plant pathogen mode of action: a simple and powerful new approach

The independent action hypothesis is a simple model of pathogen infection that can make many useful predictions on infection kinetics and, therefore, a number of different tests of independent action have been developed. However, some of these analyses are rather sophisticated, limiting their appeal to experimentalists, and it is also unclear how well the different tests perform. Here, we developed and evaluated a simple and robust new test of independent action. Our new test is based on using a constant inoculum dose of one pathogen variant, varying the dose of a second variant, and then quantifying the infection response for the first variant. We simulated infection data in which we introduced deviations from independent action, experimental variation, or both. Simulations showed that our new procedure has many advantages over the existing tests of independent action, especially if only systemic-infection data are available. We also performed experimental tests of our new procedure using two marked Tobacco etch virus (TEV) variants. We found minor deviations from the independent action model, which were not detected by previous tests using existing methods, exemplifying the utility of this approach. We discuss the implications for TEV infection kinetics and consider how to reconcile different dose-dependent effects.

Seven challenges in modeling pathogen dynamics within-host and across scales

The population dynamics of infectious disease is a mature field in terms of theory and to some extent, application. However for microparasites, the theory and application of models of the dynamics within a single infected host is still an open field. Further, connecting across the scales--from cellular to host level, to population level--has potential to vastly improve our understanding of pathogen dynamics and evolution. Here, we highlight seven challenges in the following areas: transmission bottlenecks, heterogeneity within host, dynamic fitness landscapes within hosts, making use of next-generation sequencing data, capturing superinfection and when and how to model more than two scales.

Pathogen growth in insect hosts: inferring the importance of different mechanisms using stochastic models and response-time data

Pathogen population dynamics within individual hosts can alter disease epidemics and pathogen evolution, but our understanding of the mechanisms driving within-host dynamics is weak. Mathematical models have provided useful insights, but existing models have only rarely been subjected to rigorous tests, and their reliability is therefore open to question. Most models assume that initial pathogen population sizes are so large that stochastic effects due to small population sizes, so-called demographic stochasticity, are negligible, but whether this assumption is reasonable is unknown. Most models also assume that the dynamic effects of a host's immune system strongly affect pathogen incubation times or "response times," but whether such effects are important in real host-pathogen interactions is likewise unknown. Here we use data for a baculovirus of the gypsy moth to test models of within-host pathogen growth. By using Bayesian statistical techniques and formal model-selection procedures, we are able to show that the response time of the gypsy moth virus is strongly affected by both demographic stochasticity and a dynamic response of the host immune system. Our results imply that not all response-time variability can be explained by host and pathogen variability, and that immune system responses to infection may have important effects on population-level disease dynamics.

Cell-Mediated Immunity to AAV Vectors, Evolving Concepts and Potential Solutions

Adeno-associated virus (AAV) vectors are one of the most efficient in vivo gene delivery platforms. Over the past decade, clinical trials of AAV vector-mediated gene transfer led to some of the most exciting results in the field of gene therapy and, recently, to the market approval of an AAV-based drug in Europe. With clinical development, however, it became obvious that the host immune system represents an important obstacle to successful gene transfer with AAV vectors. In this review article, we will discuss the issue of cytotoxic T cell responses directed against the AAV capsid encountered on human studies. While over the past several years the field has acquired a tremendous amount of information on the interactions of AAV vectors with the immune system, a lot of questions are still unanswered. Novel concepts are emerging, such as the relationship between the total capsid dose and the T cell-mediated clearance of transduced cells, the potential role of innate immunity in vector immunogenicity highlighted in preclinical studies, and the cross talk between regulatory and effector T cells in the determination of the outcome of gene transfer. There is still a lot to learn about immune responses in AAV gene transfer, for example, it is not well understood what are the determinants of the kinetics of activation of T cells in response to vector administration, why not all subjects develop detrimental T cell responses following gene transfer, and whether the intervention strategies currently in use to block T cell-mediated clearance of transduced cells will be safe and effective for all gene therapy indications. Results from novel preclinical models and clinical studies will help to address these points and to reach the important goal of developing safe and effective gene therapy protocols to treat human diseases.

Effects of the number of genome segments on primary and systemic infections with a multipartite plant RNA virus

Multipartite plant viruses were discovered because of discrepancies between the observed dose response and predictions of the independent-action hypothesis (IAH) model. Theory suggests that the number of genome segments predicts the shape of the dose-response curve, but a rigorous test of this hypothesis has not been reported. Here, Alfalfa mosaic virus (AMV), a tripartite Alfamovirus, and transgenic Nicotianatabacum plants expressing no (wild type), one (P2), or two (P12) viral genome segments were used to test whether the number of genome segments necessary for infection predicts the dose response. The dose-response curve of wild-type plants was steep and congruent with the predicted kinetics of a multipartite virus, confirming previous results. Moreover, for P12 plants, the data support the IAH model, showing that the expression of virus genome segments by the host plant can modulate the infection kinetics of a tripartite virus to those of a monopartite virus. However, the different types of virus particles occurred at different frequencies, with a ratio of 116:45:1 (RNA1 to RNA2 to RNA3), which will affect infection kinetics and required analysis with a more comprehensive infection model. This analysis showed that each type of virus particle has a different probability of invading the host plant, at both the primary- and systemic-infection levels. While the number of genome segments affects the dose response, taking into consideration differences in the infection kinetics of the three types of AMV particles results in a better understanding of the infection process.

Stability and fitness impact of the visually discernible Rosea1 marker in the Tobacco etch virus genome

Antirrhinum majus Rosea1 (Ros1) is an MYB-related transcription factor that induces anthocyanin biosynthesis in plant tissues, and has been shown to be suitable for visual tracking of virus infection in plants. However, activation of anthocyanin biosynthesis has far reaching effects on plant physiology and could consequently have negative effects on viral replication. Therefore, viruses carrying the Ros1 marker might have a low fitness and consequently rapidly lose the marker. To compare the stability of the Ros1 marker, we generated Tobacco etch virus (TEV) based constructs containing either Ros1 or the enhanced green fluorescent protein (eGFP) between the NIb and CP cistrons (TEV-Ros1 and TEV-eGFP, respectively). We measured the within-host competitive fitness of both viruses by direct competitions with a common competitor during infection of Nicotiana tabacum. The fitness of TEV-Ros1 was significantly lower than that of TEV-eGFP, and both recombinant viruses had a significantly lower fitness than the wild-type virus. Nevertheless, after seven weeks of infection in N. tabacum, similar levels of marker gene instability where found for both viruses. Despite lower fitness of the marked virus, Ros1 is therefore a viable alternative marker for tracking viral infection in plants.

The effect of inoculum dose on the genetic diversity detected within Helicoverpa armigera nucleopolyhedrovirus populations

Environmental and infection variables may affect the genetic diversity of baculovirus populations. In this study, Helicoverpa armigera nucleopolyhedrovirus (HearNPV) was used as a model system for studying the effects of a key infection variable, inoculum dose, on the genetic diversity within nucleopolyhedrovirus populations. Diversity and equitability indices were calculated from DNA polymerase-specific denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis profiles obtained from individual H. armigera neonate larvae inoculated with either an LD5 or LD95 of HearNPV. Although the genetic diversity detected in larvae treated with an LD95 was not statistically different from the diversity detected in the HearNPV inoculum samples, there was a statistically significant difference in the genetic diversity detected in the LD5-inoculated larvae compared with the genetic diversity detected in the HearNPV samples used for the inoculations. The study suggests that inoculum dose needs to be considered carefully in experiments that evaluate HearNPV genetic diversity or in studies where differences in genetic diversity may have phenotypic consequences.

Model-selection-based approach for calculating cellular multiplicity of infection during virus colonization of multi-cellular hosts

The cellular multiplicity of infection (MOI) is a key parameter for describing the interactions between virions and cells, predicting the dynamics of mixed-genotype infections, and understanding virus evolution. Two recent studies have reported in vivo MOI estimates for Tobacco mosaic virus (TMV) and Cauliflower mosaic virus (CaMV), using sophisticated approaches to measure the distribution of two virus variants over host cells. Although the experimental approaches were similar, the studies employed different definitions of MOI and estimation methods. Here, new model-selection-based methods for calculating MOI were developed. Seven alternative models for predicting MOI were formulated that incorporate an increasing number of parameters. For both datasets the best-supported model included spatial segregation of virus variants over time, and to a lesser extent aggregation of virus-infected cells was also implicated. Three methods for MOI estimation were then compared: the two previously reported methods and the best-supported model. For CaMV data, all three methods gave comparable results. For TMV data, the previously reported methods both predicted low MOI values (range: 1.04–1.23) over time, whereas the best-supported model predicted a wider range of MOI values (range: 1.01–2.10) and an increase in MOI over time. Model selection can therefore identify suitable alternative MOI models and suggest key mechanisms affecting the frequency of coinfected cells. For the TMV data, this leads to appreciable differences in estimated MOI values.

Dynamics of the establishment of systemic Potyvirus infection: independent yet cumulative action of primary infection sites

In the clinic, farm, or field, for many viruses there is a high prevalence of mixed-genotype infections, indicating that multiple virions have initiated infection and that there can be multiple sites of primary infection within the same host. The dynamic process by which multiple primary infection sites interact with each other and the host is poorly understood, undoubtedly due to its high complexity. In this study, we attempted to unravel the basic interactions underlying this process using a plant RNA virus, as removing the inoculated leaf can instantly and rigorously eliminate all primary infection sites. Effective population size in the inoculated leaf and time of removal of the inoculated leaf were varied in experiments, and it was found that both factors positively influenced if the plant became systemically infected and what proportion of cells in the systemic tissue were infected, as measured by flow cytometry. Fitting of probabilistic models of infection to our data demonstrated that a null model in which the action of each focus is independent of the presence of other foci was better supported than a dependent-action model. The cumulative effect of independently acting foci therefore determined when plants became infected and how many individual cells were infected. There was no evidence for interference between primary infection sites, which is surprising given the planar structure of leaves. By showing that a simple null model is supported, we experimentally confirmed--to our knowledge for the first time--the minimal components that dictate interactions of a conspecific virus population establishing systemic infection.

Effects of potyvirus effective population size in inoculated leaves on viral accumulation and the onset of symptoms

Effective population size (N(e)) is a key parameter for understanding evolutionary processes, but it is generally not considered in epidemiological studies or in studying infections of individual hosts. Whether N(e) has an effect on the onset of symptoms and viral accumulation in Tobacco etch virus (TEV) infection of Nicotiana tabacum plants is considered here. Using mixtures of TEV variants carrying fluorescent markers, the dose dependence of N(e) was confirmed, and the inoculation procedure was found to be the main source of variation in these experiments. Whereas the onset of symptoms was independent of N(e), there was less and more variable accumulation at 6 days postinoculation for small N(e) values (N(e) < 5). The observed variation in accumulation was not heritable, however, suggesting that this variation was not due to the fixation of deleterious mutations in the small founder populations. On the other hand, virus-induced fluorescence and accumulation in the inoculated leaf were strongly N(e) dependent. Systemic accumulation was independent of N(e), although removal of the inoculated leaf led to a small reduction in systemic accumulation for small N(e) values. For whole plants, N(e)-dependent effects on accumulation were no longer observed at 9 days postinoculation. Therefore, the effects of N(e) on accumulation are due mainly to limited expansion in the inoculated leaf and are transient. In this system, N(e)-dependent effects will be strongest at low doses and early in infection. We conclude that N(e) can have implications for epidemiology and infection at the individual host level, beyond determining the rate of mixed-genotype infection.

Dissemination bottleneck in a murine model of inhalational anthrax

Inhalational anthrax is caused by the sporulating bacterium Bacillus anthracis. A current model for progression in mammalian hosts includes inhalation of bacterial spores, phagocytosis of spores in the nasal mucosa-associated lymphoid tissue (NALT) and lungs by macrophages and dendritic cells, trafficking of phagocytes to draining lymph nodes, germination of spores and multiplication of vegetative bacteria in the NALT and lymph nodes, and dissemination of bacteria via the bloodstream to multiple organs. In previous studies, the kinetics of infection varied greatly among mice, leading us to hypothesize the existence of a bottleneck past which very few spores (perhaps only one) progress to allow the infection to proceed. To test this hypothesis, we engineered three strains of B. anthracis Sterne, each marked with a different fluorescent protein, enabling visual differentiation of strains grown on plates. Mice were infected with a mixture of the three strains, the infection was allowed to proceed, and the strains colonizing the organs were identified. Although the inoculum consisted of approximately equal numbers of each of the three strains, the distal organs were consistently colonized by a majority of only one of the three strains, with the dominant strain varying among animals. Such dominance of one strain over the other two was also found at early time points in the cervical lymph nodes but not in the mediastinal lymph nodes. These results support the existence of a bottleneck in the infectious process.

Transmission and dose-response experiments for social animals: a reappraisal of the colonization biology of Campylobacter jejuni in chickens

Dose-response experiments characterize the relationship between infectious agents and their hosts. These experiments are routinely used to estimate the minimum effective infectious dose for an infectious agent, which is most commonly characterized by the dose at which 50 per cent of challenged hosts become infected-the ID(50). In turn, the ID(50) is often used to compare between different agents and quantify the effect of treatment regimes. The statistical analysis of dose-response data typically makes the assumption that hosts within a given dose group are independent. For social animals, in particular avian species, hosts are routinely housed together in groups during experimental studies. For experiments with non-infectious agents, this poses no practical or theoretical problems. However, transmission of infectious agents between co-housed animals will modify the observed dose-response relationship with implications for the estimation of the ID(50) and the comparison between different agents and treatments. We derive a simple correction to the likelihood for standard dose-response models that allows us to estimate dose-response and transmission parameters simultaneously. We use this model to show that: transmission between co-housed animals reduces the apparent value of the ID(50) and increases the variability between replicates leading to a distinctive all-or-nothing response; in terms of the total number of animals used, individual housing is always the most efficient experimental design for ascertaining dose-response relationships; estimates of transmission from previously published experimental data for Campylobacter spp. in chickens suggest that considerable transmission occurred, greatly increasing the uncertainty in the estimates of dose-response parameters reported in the literature. Furthermore, we demonstrate that accounting for transmission in the analysis of dose-response data for Campylobacter spp. challenges our current understanding of the differing response of chickens with respect to host-age and in vivo passage of bacteria. Our findings suggest that the age-dependence of transmissibility between hosts-rather than their susceptibility to colonization-is the mechanism behind the 'lag-phase' reported in commercial flocks, which are typically found to be Campylobacter free for the first 14-21 days of life.

One is enough: in vivo effective population size is dose-dependent for a plant RNA virus

Effective population size (N(e)) determines the strength of genetic drift and the frequency of co-infection by multiple genotypes, making it a key factor in viral evolution. Experimental estimates of N(e) for different plant viruses have, however, rendered diverging results. The independent action hypothesis (IAH) states that each virion has a probability of infection, and that virions act independent of one another during the infection process. A corollary of IAH is that N(e) must be dose dependent. A test of IAH for a plant virus has not been reported yet. Here we perform a test of an IAH infection model using a plant RNA virus, Tobacco etch virus (TEV) variants carrying GFP or mCherry fluorescent markers, in Nicotiana tabacum and Capsicum annuum plants. The number of primary infection foci increased linearly with dose, and was similar to a Poisson distribution. At high doses, primary infection foci containing both genotypes were found at a low frequency (<2%). The probability that a genotype that infected the inoculated leaf would systemically infect that plant was near 1, although in a few rare cases genotypes could be trapped in the inoculated leaf by being physically surrounded by the other genotype. The frequency of mixed-genotype infection could be predicted from the mean number of primary infection foci using the independent-action model. Independent action appears to hold for TEV, and N(e) is therefore dose-dependent for this plant RNA virus. The mean number of virions causing systemic infection can be very small, and approaches 1 at low doses. Dose-dependency in TEV suggests that comparison of N(e) estimates for different viruses are not very meaningful unless dose effects are taken into consideration.

Heterogeneous host susceptibility enhances prevalence of mixed-genotype micro-parasite infections

Dose response in micro-parasite infections is usually shallower than predicted by the independent action model, which assumes that each infectious unit has a probability of infection that is independent of the presence of other infectious units. Moreover, the prevalence of mixed-genotype infections was greater than predicted by this model. No probabilistic infection model has been proposed to account for the higher prevalence of mixed-genotype infections. We use model selection within a set of four alternative models to explain high prevalence of mixed-genotype infections in combination with a shallow dose response. These models contrast dependent versus independent action of micro-parasite infectious units, and homogeneous versus heterogeneous host susceptibility. We specifically consider a situation in which genome differences between genotypes are minimal, and highly unlikely to result in genotype-genotype interactions. Data on dose response and mixed-genotype infection prevalence were collected by challenging fifth instar Spodoptera exigua larvae with two genotypes of Autographa californica multicapsid nucleopolyhedrovirus (AcMNPV), differing only in a 100 bp PCR marker sequence. We show that an independent action model that includes heterogeneity in host susceptibility can explain both the shallow dose response and the high prevalence of mixed-genotype infections. Theoretical results indicate that variation in host susceptibility is inextricably linked to increased prevalence of mixed-genotype infections. We have shown, to our knowledge for the first time, how heterogeneity in host susceptibility affects mixed-genotype infection prevalence. No evidence was found that virions operate dependently. While it has been recognized that heterogeneity in host susceptibility must be included in models of micro-parasite transmission and epidemiology to account for dose response, here we show that heterogeneity in susceptibility is also a fundamental principle explaining patterns of pathogen genetic diversity among hosts in a population. This principle has potentially wide implications for the monitoring, modeling and management of infectious diseases.

What elements are indispensable in the description of the most basic host-pathogen interactions? The simplest models of infection generally fail to predict how many host plants or animals will become infected, and which virus genotypes will be present in these infected hosts. These simple models of infection are the building blocks for more complicated models of epidemiology and disease dynamics and diversity, making it important to identify the reasons for failure. We developed four probabilistic models of infection incorporating different mechanisms that could potentially explain and overcome this failure. We obtained experimental data to test these models by exposing Lepidopteran larvae to different genotypes of an insect DNA virus, and determining which virus genotypes had infected them. The model which best described the data added only one element: variation in the susceptibility of individual caterpillars to the virus. Host variation in susceptibility is known to affect transmission of viruses between hosts, but here we show it is inextricably linked to infection biology and indispensable for understanding pathogen diversity in host populations.