Unravelling the structure of species extinction risk for predictive conservation science

A phylogeny-informed characterisation of global tetrapod traits addresses data gaps and biases

Tetrapods (amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals) are model systems for global biodiversity science, but continuing data gaps, limited data standardisation, and ongoing flux in taxonomic nomenclature constrain integrative research on this group and potentially cause biased inference. We combined and harmonised taxonomic, spatial, phylogenetic, and attribute data with phylogeny-based multiple imputation to provide a comprehensive data resource (TetrapodTraits 1.0.0) that includes values, predictions, and sources for body size, activity time, micro- and macrohabitat, ecosystem, threat status, biogeography, insularity, environmental preferences, and human influence, for all 33,281 tetrapod species covered in recent fully sampled phylogenies. We assess gaps and biases across taxa and space, finding that shared data missing in attribute values increased with taxon-level completeness and richness across clades. Prediction of missing attribute values using multiple imputation revealed substantial changes in estimated macroecological patterns. These results highlight biases incurred by nonrandom missingness and strategies to best address them. While there is an obvious need for further data collection and updates, our phylogeny-informed database of tetrapod traits can support a more comprehensive representation of tetrapod species and their attributes in ecology, evolution, and conservation research.

Land-use homogenization reduces the occurrence and diversity of frugivorous birds in a tropical biodiversity hotspot

Understanding how human-modified landscapes maintain biodiversity and provide ecosystem services is crucial for establishing conservation practices. Given that responses to land-use are species-specific, it is crucial to understand how land-use changes may shape patterns of species diversity and persistence in human-modified landscapes. Here, we used a comprehensive data set on bird distribution from the Brazilian Atlantic Forest to understand how species richness and individual occurrences of frugivorous bird species responded to land-use spatial predictors and, subsequently, assess how ecological traits and phylogeny modulated these responses. Using Bayesian hierarchical modeling, we reveal that the richness of frugivorous birds was positively associated with the amount of native forest and negatively with both agriculture and pasture amount at the landscape scale. Conversely, the effect of these predictors on species occurrence and ecological traits was highly variable and presented a weak phylogenetic signal. Furthermore, land-use homogenization (i.e., the conversion of forest to pasture or agriculture) led to pervasive consequences for forest-dependent bird species, whereas several generalist species thrived in deforested areas, replacing those sensitive to habitat disturbances.

Management and research efforts are failing dolphins, porpoises, and other toothed whales

Despite being subject to intensive research and public interest many populations of dolphins, porpoises, and other toothed whales (small cetaceans) continue to decline, and several species are on the verge of extinction. We examine small cetacean status, human activities driving extinction risk, and whether research efforts are addressing priority threats. We estimate that 22% of small cetaceans are threatened with extinction, with little signs of improvement in nearly thirty years. Fisheries and coastal habitat degradation are the main predictors of extinction risk. Contrary to popular belief, we show that the causal impact of small-scale fisheries on extinction risk is greater than from large-scale fisheries. Fisheries management strength had little influence on extinction risk, suggesting that the implementation of existing measures have been largely ineffective. Alarmingly, we find research efforts for priority threats to be vastly underrepresented and so a major shift in research focus is required. Small cetaceans are among the lower hanging fruits of marine conservation; continued failure to halt their decline bodes poorly for tackling marine biodiversity loss and avoiding an Anthropocene mass extinction.

Ecological filtering shapes the impacts of agricultural deforestation on biodiversity

The biodiversity impacts of agricultural deforestation vary widely across regions. Previous efforts to explain this variation have focused exclusively on the landscape features and management regimes of agricultural systems, neglecting the potentially critical role of ecological filtering in shaping deforestation tolerance of extant species assemblages at large geographical scales via selection for functional traits. Here we provide a large-scale test of this role using a global database of species abundance ratios between matched agricultural and native forest sites that comprises 71 avian assemblages reported in 44 primary studies, and a companion database of 10 functional traits for all 2,647 species involved. Using meta-analytic, phylogenetic and multivariate methods, we show that beyond agricultural features, filtering by the extent of natural environmental variability and the severity of historical anthropogenic deforestation shapes the varying deforestation impacts across species assemblages. For assemblages under greater environmental variability-proxied by drier and more seasonal climates under a greater disturbance regime-and longer deforestation histories, filtering has attenuated the negative impacts of current deforestation by selecting for functional traits linked to stronger deforestation tolerance. Our study provides a previously largely missing piece of knowledge in understanding and managing the biodiversity consequences of deforestation by agricultural deforestation.

Explaining the primate extinction crisis: predictors of extinction risk and active threats

Explaining why some species are disproportionately impacted by the extinction crisis is of critical importance for conservation biology as a science and for proactively protecting species that are likely to become threatened in the future. Using the most current data on threat status, population trends, and threat types for 446 primate species, we advance previous research on the determinants of extinction risk by including a wider array of phenotypic traits as predictors, filling gaps in these trait data using multiple imputation, and investigating the mechanisms that connect organismal traits to extinction risk. Our Bayesian phylogenetically controlled analyses reveal that insular species exhibit higher threat status, while those that are more omnivorous and live in larger groups have lower threat status. The same traits are not linked to risk when repeating our analyses with older IUCN data, which may suggest that the traits influencing species risk are changing as anthropogenic effects continue to transform natural landscapes. We also show that non-insular, larger-bodied, and arboreal species are more susceptible to key threats responsible for primate population declines. Collectively, these results provide new insights to the determinants of primate extinction and identify the mechanisms (i.e. threats) that link traits to extinction risk.

Scale of population synchrony confirms macroecological estimates of minimum viable range size

Global ecosystems are facing a deepening biodiversity crisis, necessitating robust approaches to quantifying species extinction risk. The lower limit of the macroecological relationship between species range and body size has long been hypothesized as an estimate of the relationship between the minimum viable range size (MVRS) needed for species persistence and the organismal traits that affect space and resource requirements. Here, we perform the first explicit test of this assumption by confronting the MVRS predicted by the range-body size relationship with an independent estimate based on the scale of synchrony in abundance among spatially separated populations of riverine fish. We provide clear evidence of a positive relationship between the scale of synchrony and species body size, and strong support for the MVRS set by the lower limit of the range-body size macroecological relationship. This MVRS may help prioritize first evaluations for unassessed or data-deficient taxa in global conservation assessments.

Human disturbances affect the topology of food webs

Networks describe nodes connected by links, with numbers of links per node, the degree, forming a range of distributions including random and scale-free. How network topologies emerge in natural systems still puzzles scientists. Based on previous theoretical simulations, we predict that scale-free food webs are favourably selected by random disturbances while random food webs are selected by targeted disturbances. We assume that lower human pressures are more likely associated with random disturbances, whereas higher pressures are associated with targeted ones. We examine these predictions using 351 empirical food webs, generally confirming our predictions. Should the topology of food webs respond to changes in the magnitude of disturbances in a predictable fashion, consistently across ecosystems and scales of organisation, it would provide a baseline expectation to understand and predict the consequences of human pressures on ecosystem dynamics.

What do we want to estimate from observational datasets? Choosing appropriate statistical analysis methods based on the chemical management phase

The goals of observational dataset analysis vary with the management phase of environments threatened by anthropogenic chemicals. For example, identifying severely compromised sites is necessary to determine candidate sites in which to implement measures during early management phases. Among the most effective approaches is developing regression models with high predictive power for dependent variable values using the Akaike information criterion. However, this analytical approach may be theoretically inappropriate to obtain the necessary information in various chemical management phases, such as the intervention effect size of a chemical required in the late chemical management phase to evaluate the necessity of an effluent standard and its specific value. However, choosing appropriate statistical methods based on the data analysis objective in each chemical management phase has rarely been performed. This study provides an overview of the primary data analysis objectives in the early and late chemical management phases. For each objective, several suitable statistical analysis methods for observational datasets are detailed. In addition, the study presents examples of linear regression analysis procedures using an available dataset derived from field surveys conducted in Japanese rivers. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2022;18:1414-1422. © 2021 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Automated assessment reveals that the extinction risk of reptiles is widely underestimated across space and phylogeny

The Red List of Threatened Species, published by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), is a crucial tool for conservation decision-making. However, despite substantial effort, numerous species remain unassessed or have insufficient data available to be assigned a Red List extinction risk category. Moreover, the Red Listing process is subject to various sources of uncertainty and bias. The development of robust automated assessment methods could serve as an efficient and highly useful tool to accelerate the assessment process and offer provisional assessments. Here, we aimed to (1) present a machine learning–based automated extinction risk assessment method that can be used on less known species; (2) offer provisional assessments for all reptiles—the only major tetrapod group without a comprehensive Red List assessment; and (3) evaluate potential effects of human decision biases on the outcome of assessments. We use the method presented here to assess 4,369 reptile species that are currently unassessed or classified as Data Deficient by the IUCN. The models used in our predictions were 90% accurate in classifying species as threatened/nonthreatened, and 84% accurate in predicting specific extinction risk categories. Unassessed and Data Deficient reptiles were considerably more likely to be threatened than assessed species, adding to mounting evidence that these species warrant more conservation attention. The overall proportion of threatened species greatly increased when we included our provisional assessments. Assessor identities strongly affected prediction outcomes, suggesting that assessor effects need to be carefully considered in extinction risk assessments. Regions and taxa we identified as likely to be more threatened should be given increased attention in new assessments and conservation planning. Lastly, the method we present here can be easily implemented to help bridge the assessment gap for other less known taxa.

Effects of anthropogenic landscapes on population maintenance of waterbirds

Anthropogenic impacts have reduced natural areas but increased the area of anthropogenic landscapes. There is debate about whether anthropogenic landscapes (e.g., farmlands, orchards, and fish ponds) provide alternatives to natural habitat and under what circumstances. We considered whether anthropogenic landscapes can mitigate population declines for waterbirds. We collected data on population trends and biological traits of 1203 populations of 579 species across the planet. Using Bayesian generalized linear mixed models, we tested whether the ability of a species to use an anthropogenic landscape can predict population trends of waterbird globally and of species of conservation concern. Anthropogenic landscapes benefited population maintenance of common but not less-common species. Conversely, the use of anthropogenic landscapes was associated with population declines for threatened species. Our findings delineate some limitations to the ability of anthropogenic landscapes to mitigate population declines, suggesting that the maintenance of global waterbird populations depends on protecting remaining natural areas and improving the habitat quality in anthropogenic landscapes. Article impact statement: Protecting natural areas and improving the quality of anthropogenic landscapes as habitat are both needed to achieve effective conservation.

Relative Importance of Ecological, Evolutionary and Anthropogenic Pressures on Extinction Risk in Chinese Angiosperm Genera

China has many threatened plant species, which are exposed to environmental degradation and other anthropogenic pressures. We assessed support for potential extinction pathways in Chinese angiosperm genera and quantified possible threats to phylogenetic diversity. We compiled a database and phylogeny for 27,409 Chinese angiosperm species in 2,453 genera. For each genus, we used the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List classifications to quantify extinction risk and calculated predictors corresponding to their ecological, evolutionary characteristics and exposure to human pressures. We first tested for phylogenetic clustering in extinction risk among genera and then tested support for direct and indirect causal pathways involving our predictors using piecewise structural equation models. Finally, we quantified the potential loss of phylogenetic diversity under different extinction scenarios. We found that extinction risk is non-randomly distributed among Chinese angiosperm genera, with the proportion of threatened species higher in range-limited and species-rich taxa. Habitat loss had a significant positive effect on threatened species richness. Phylogenetic diversity loss under scenarios: the decreasing habitat loss and relative extinction rate were high. Thus, genera would suffer from high extinction risk, if species in these genera occupy similar niches and overlapping ranges. While diversification or speciation via niche divergence might increase range-limited species vulnerable to stochastic extinction, this could reduce extinction risk of the whole clade by expanding its range and climatic niche tolerance. Endemic genera with higher extinction rates, less climatic niche divergence, and lower range segregation are especially vulnerable to anthropogenic disturbances.

Demographic and life history traits explain patterns in species vulnerability to extinction

As ecosystems face disruption of community dynamics and habitat loss, the idea of determining ahead of time which species can become extinct is an important subject in conservation biology. A species’ vulnerability to extinction is dependent upon both intrinsic (life-history strategies, genetics) and extrinsic factors (environment, anthropogenic threats). Studies linking intrinsic traits to extinction risk have shown variable results, and to our knowledge, there has not been a systematic analysis looking at how demographic patterns in stage-specific survival and reproductive rates correlate to extinction risk. We used matrix projection models from the COMPADRE and COMADRE matrix databases and IUCN Red List status as our proxy of extinction risk to investigate if some demographic patterns are more vulnerable to extinction than others. We obtained data on demographic rates, phylogeny, and IUCN status for 159 species of herbaceous plants, trees, mammals, and birds. We calculated 14 demographic metrics related to different aspects of life history and elasticity values and analyzed whether they differ based on IUCN categories using conditional random forest analysis and phylogenetic generalized least square regressions. We mapped all species within the database, both with IUCN assessment and without, and overlaid them with biodiversity hotspots to investigate if there is bias within the assessed species and how many of the non-assessed species could use the demographic information recorded in COMPADRE and COMADRE for future IUCN assessments. We found that herbaceous perennials are more vulnerable when they mature early and have high juvenile survival rates; birds are more vulnerable with high progressive growth and reproduction; mammals are more vulnerable when they have longer generation times. These patterns may be used to assess relative vulnerability across species when lacking abundance or trend data.

Diversity and extinction risk are inversely related at a global scale

Increases in biodiversity often lead to greater, and less variable, levels of ecosystem functioning. However, whether species are less likely to go extinct in more diverse ecosystems is unclear. We use comprehensive estimates of avian taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional diversity to characterise the global relationship between multiple dimensions of diversity and extinction risk in birds, focusing on contemporary threat status and latent extinction risk. We find that more diverse assemblages have lower mean IUCN threat status despite being composed of species with attributes that make them more vulnerable to extinction, such as large body size or small range size. Indeed, the reduction in current threat status associated with greater diversity far outweighs the increased risk associated with the accumulation of extinction‐prone species in more diverse assemblages. Our results suggest that high diversity reduces extinction risk, and that species conservation targets may therefore best be achieved by maintaining high levels of overall biodiversity in natural ecosystems.

The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution

Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s–2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr−1 towards the north (5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km yr−1. Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to ‘climate debt’. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds’ resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future.

The evolution, ecology, and conservation of hummingbirds and their interactions with flowering plants

The ecological co-dependency between plants and hummingbirds is a classic example of a mutualistic interaction: hummingbirds rely on floral nectar to fuel their rapid metabolisms, and more than 7000 plant species rely on hummingbirds for pollination. However, threats to hummingbirds are mounting, with 10% of 366 species considered globally threatened and 60% in decline. Despite the important ecological implications of these population declines, no recent review has examined plant-hummingbird interactions in the wider context of their evolution, ecology, and conservation. To provide this overview, we (i) assess the extent to which plants and hummingbirds have coevolved over millions of years, (ii) examine the mechanisms underlying plant-hummingbird interaction frequencies and hummingbird specialization, (iii) explore the factors driving the decline of hummingbird populations, and (iv) map out directions for future research and conservation. We find that, despite close associations between plants and hummingbirds, acquiring evidence for coevolution (versus one-sided adaptation) is difficult because data on fitness outcomes for both partners are required. Thus, linking plant-hummingbird interactions to plant reproduction is not only a major avenue for future coevolutionary work, but also for studies of interaction networks, which rarely incorporate pollinator effectiveness. Nevertheless, over the past decade, a growing body of literature on plant-hummingbird networks suggests that hummingbirds form relationships with plants primarily based on overlapping phenologies and trait-matching between bill length and flower length. On the other hand, species-level specialization appears to depend primarily on local community context, such as hummingbird abundance and nectar availability. Finally, although hummingbirds are commonly viewed as resilient opportunists that thrive in brushy habitats, we find that range size and forest dependency are key predictors of hummingbird extinction risk. A critical direction for future research is to examine how potential stressors - such as habitat loss and fragmentation, climate change, and introduction of non-native plants - may interact to affect hummingbirds and the plants they pollinate.

Assessing the representation of species included within the Canadian Living Planet Index

To effectively combat the biodiversity crisis, we need ambitious targets and reliable indicators to accurately track trends and measure conservation impact. In Canada, the Living Planet Index (LPI) has been adapted to produce a national indicator by both World Wildlife Fund-Canada (Canadian Living Planet Index; C-LPI) and Environment and Climate Change Canada (Canadian Species Index) to provide insight into the status of Canadian wildlife, by evaluating temporal trends in vertebrate population abundance. The indicator includes data for just over 50% of Canadian vertebrate species. To assess whether the current dataset is representative of the distribution of life history characteristics of Canadian wildlife, we analyzed the representation of species-specific biotic variables (i.e., body size, trophic level, lifespan) for vertebrates within the C-LPI compared to native vertebrates lacking LPI data. Generally, there was considerable overlap in the distribution of biotic variables for species in the C-LPI compared to native Canadian vertebrate species lacking LPI data. Nevertheless, some differences among distributions were found, driven in large part by discrepancy in the representation of fishes—where the C-LPI included larger-bodied and longer-lived species. We provide recommendations for targeted data collection and additional analyses to further strengthen the applicability, accuracy, and representativity of biodiversity indicators.

Evolutionary legacies in contemporary tetrapod imperilment

The Tree of Life will be irrevocably reshaped as anthropogenic extinctions continue to unfold. Theory suggests that lineage evolutionary dynamics, such as age since origination, historical extinction filters and speciation rates, have influenced ancient extinction patterns - but whether these factors also contribute to modern extinction risk is largely unknown. We examine evolutionary legacies in contemporary extinction risk for over 4000 genera, representing ~30,000 species, from the major tetrapod groups: amphibians, birds, turtles and crocodiles, squamate reptiles and mammals. We find consistent support for the hypothesis that extinction risk is elevated in lineages with higher recent speciation rates. We subsequently test, and find modest support for, a primary mechanism driving this pattern: that rapidly diversifying clades predominantly comprise range-restricted, and extinction-prone, species. These evolutionary patterns in current imperilment may have important consequences for how we manage the erosion of biological diversity across the Tree of Life.

Cross-scale monitoring of habitat suitability changes using satellite time series and ecological niche models

One of the biggest challenges to deal with the global crisis of biodiversity loss is the lack of efficient and viable monitoring systems across scales. Unlike traditional in situ biodiversity monitoring, a usually costly and time-consuming enterprise, satellite remote sensing (SRS) data offer a technically feasible and sustainable in time solution. Here, we devise a cost-effective and upgradeable spatiotemporal framework for monitoring the species-specific habitat availability changes across scales by trend analysis of habitat suitability index (HSI) derived from ecological niche models (ENMs; Maxent) and using time series of SRS data (MODIS). The SRS-ENM framework was applied for a large suite of native species (911), from major taxonomic groups (flora (vascular plants), amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals), and listed in the IUCN Red List at regional (Iberian Peninsula) and continental (Europe) scales. The HSI-trend analyses predict cumulative reductions in habitat suitability for Threatened and Non-Threatened species across scales for the period 2002-2016. Specifically, 19% and 66% of the total grid cells for both species' groups showed negative trends at both regional and continental scales, respectively. Results were similar when considering all IUCN threat categories. All taxa groups showed a decrease in habitat suitability, but amphibians and reptiles groups hosted the largest number of negative HSI-trends grid cells. Considering all groups together, 12% and 34% of both study areas have strong reductions in habitat quality. We conclude that our framework detects increases and decreases in species' habitat suitability regardless of the spatial scale, extent, and pixel size. Species' range predictions across space and time based on SRS time series represent a promising Earth observation tool to support traditional risk assessment protocols and anticipate the decision-making process, while serving as a cross-scale biodiversity monitoring system.

Biological and extrinsic correlates of extinction risk in Chinese lizards

China is a country with one of the most species-rich reptile faunas in the world. However, nearly a quarter of Chinese lizard species assessed by the China Biodiversity Red List are threatened. Nevertheless, to date, no study has explicitly examined the pattern and processes of extinction and threat in Chinese lizards. In this study, we conducted the first comparative phylogenetic analysis of extinction risk in Chinese lizards. We addressed the following 3 questions: (1) What is the pattern of extinction and threat in Chinese lizards? (2) Which species traits and extrinsic factors are related to their extinction risk? (3) How can we protect Chinese lizards based on our results? We collected data on 10 species traits (body size [BS], clutch size, geographic range size, activity time, reproductive mode, habitat specialization [HS], habitat use, leg development, maximum elevation, and elevation range) and 7 extrinsic factors (mean annual precipitation (MAP), mean annual temperature, mean annual solar insolation, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), human footprint, human population density, and human exploitation). After phylogenetic correction, these variables were used separately and in combination to assess their associations with extinction risk. We found that Chinese lizards with a small geographic range, large BS, high HS, and living in high MAP areas were vulnerable to extinction. Conservation priority should thus be given to species with the above extinction-prone traits so as to effectively protect Chinese lizards. Preventing future habitat destruction should also be a primary focus of management efforts because species with small range size and high HS are particularly vulnerable to habitat loss.

Deep Learning for Reintegrating Biology

The goal of this vision paper is to investigate the possible role that advanced machine learning techniques, especially deep learning, could play in the reintegration of various biological disciplines. To achieve this goal, a series of operational, but admittedly very simplistic, conceptualizations have been introduced: Life has been taken as a multidimensional phenomenon that inhabits three physical dimensions (time, space, and scale) and biological research as establishing connection between different points in the domain of life. Each of these points hence denotes a position in time, space, and scale at which a life phenomenon of interest takes place. Using these conceptualizations, fragmentation of biology can be seen as the result of too few and especially too short-ranged connections. Reintegrating biology could then be accomplished by establishing more, longer ranged connections. Deep learning methods appear to be very well suited for addressing this particular need at this particular time. Not withstanding the numerous unsubstantiated claims regarding the capabilities of AI, deep learning networks represent a major advance in the ability to find complex relationships inside large data sets that would have not been accessible with traditional data analytic methods or to a human observer. In addition, ongoing advances in the automation of taking measurements from phenomena on all levels of biological organization, continue to increase the number of large quantitative data sets that are available. These increasingly common data sets could serve as anchor points for making long-range connections by virtue of deep learning. However, connections within the domain of life are likely to be structured in a highly nonuniform fashion and hence it is necessary to develop methods, e.g., theoretical, computational, and experimental, to determine linkage of biological data sets most likely to provide useful insights on a biological problem using deep learning. Finally, specific deep learning approaches and architectures should be developed to match the needs of reintegrating biology.

Combined effects of life-history traits and human impact on extinction risk of freshwater megafauna

Megafauna species are intrinsically vulnerable to human impact. Freshwater megafauna (i.e., freshwater animals ≥30 kg, including fishes, mammals, reptiles, and amphibians) are subject to intensive and increasing threats. Thirty-four species are listed as critically endangered on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). Red List of Threatened Species, the assessments for which are an important basis for conservation actions but remain incomplete for 49 (24%) freshwater megafauna species. Consequently, the window of opportunity for protecting these species could be missed. Identifying the factors that predispose freshwater megafauna to extinction can help predict their extinction risk and facilitate more effective and proactive conservation actions. Thus, we collated 8 life-history traits for 206 freshwater megafauna species. We used generalized linear mixed models to examine the relationships between extinction risk based on the IUCN Red List categories and the combined effect of multiple traits, as well as the effect of human impact on these relationships for 157 classified species. The most parsimonious model included human impact and traits related to species' recovery potential including life span, age at maturity, and fecundity. Applying the most parsimonious model to 49 unclassified species predicted that 17 of them are threatened. Accounting for model predictions together with IUCN Red List assessments, 50% of all freshwater megafauna species are considered threatened. The Amazon and Yangtze basins emerged as global diversity hotspots of threatened freshwater megafauna, in addition to existing hotspots, including the Ganges-Brahmaputra and Mekong basins and the Caspian Sea region. Assessment and monitoring of those species predicted to be threatened are needed, especially in the Amazon and Yangtze basins. Investigation of life-history traits and trends in population and distribution, regulation of overexploitation, maintaining river connectivity, implementing protected areas focusing on freshwater ecosystems, and integrated basin management are required to protect threatened freshwater megafauna in diversity hotspots.

Where the wild things were: intrinsic and extrinsic extinction predictors in the world's most depleted mammal fauna

Preventing extinctions requires understanding macroecological patterns of vulnerability or persistence. However, correlates of risk can be nonlinear, within-species risk varies geographically, and current-day threats cannot reveal drivers of past losses. We investigated factors that regulated survival or extinction in Caribbean mammals, which have experienced the globally highest level of human-caused postglacial mammalian extinctions, and included all extinct and extant Holocene island populations of non-volant species (219 survivals or extinctions across 118 islands). Extinction selectivity shows a statistically detectable and complex body mass effect, with survival probability decreasing for both mass extremes, indicating that intermediate-sized species have been more resilient. A strong interaction between mass and age of first human arrival provides quantitative evidence of larger mammals going extinct on the earliest islands colonized, revealing an extinction filter caused by past human activities. Survival probability increases on islands with lower mean elevation (mostly small cays acting as offshore refugia) and decreases with more frequent hurricanes, highlighting the risk of extreme weather events and rising sea levels to surviving species on low-lying cays. These findings demonstrate the interplay between intrinsic biology, regional ecology and specific local threats, providing insights for understanding drivers of biodiversity loss across island systems and fragmented habitats worldwide.

A Bayesian network approach to trophic metacommunities shows that habitat loss accelerates top species extinctions

We develop a novel approach to analyse trophic metacommunities, which allows us to explore how progressive habitat loss affects food webs. Our method combines classic metapopulation models on fragmented landscapes with a Bayesian network representation of trophic interactions for calculating local extinction rates. This means that we can repurpose known results from classic metapopulation theory for trophic metacommunities, such as ranking the habitat patches of the landscape with respect to their importance to the persistence of the metacommunity as a whole. We use this to study the effects of habitat loss, both on model communities and the plant‐mammal Serengeti food web dataset as a case study. Combining straightforward parameterisability with computational efficiency, our method permits the analysis of species‐rich food webs over large landscapes, with hundreds or even thousands of species and habitat patches, while still retaining much of the flexibility of explicit dynamical models.

Phylogenetic and spatial distribution of evolutionary diversification, isolation, and threat in turtles and crocodilians (non-avian archosauromorphs)

Background

The origin of turtles and crocodiles and their easily recognized body forms dates to the Triassic and Jurassic. Despite their long-term success, extant species diversity is low, and endangerment is extremely high compared to other terrestrial vertebrate groups, with ~ 65% of ~ 25 crocodilian and ~ 360 turtle species now threatened by exploitation and habitat loss. Here, we combine available molecular and morphological evidence with statistical and machine learning algorithms to present a phylogenetically informed, comprehensive assessment of diversification, threat status, and evolutionary distinctiveness of all extant species.

Results

In contrast to other terrestrial vertebrates and their own diversity in the fossil record, the recent extant lineages of turtles and crocodilians have not experienced any global mass extinctions or lineage-wide shifts in diversification rate or body-size evolution over time. We predict threat statuses for 114 as-yet unassessed or data-deficient species and identify a concentration of threatened turtles and crocodilians in South and Southeast Asia, western Africa, and the eastern Amazon. We find that unlike other terrestrial vertebrate groups, extinction risk increases with evolutionary distinctiveness: a disproportionate amount of phylogenetic diversity is concentrated in evolutionarily isolated, at-risk taxa, particularly those with small geographic ranges. Our findings highlight the important role of geographic determinants of extinction risk, particularly those resulting from anthropogenic habitat-disturbance, which affect species across body sizes and ecologies.

Conclusions

Extant turtles and crocodilians maintain unique, conserved morphologies which make them globally recognizable. Many species are threatened due to exploitation and global change. We use taxonomically complete, dated molecular phylogenies and various approaches to produce a comprehensive assessment of threat status and evolutionary distinctiveness of both groups. Neither group exhibits significant overall shifts in diversification rate or body-size evolution, or any signature of global mass extinctions in recent, extant lineages. However, the most evolutionarily distinct species tend to be the most threatened, and species richness and extinction risk are centered in areas of high anthropogenic disturbance, particularly South and Southeast Asia. Range size is the strongest predictor of threat, and a disproportionate amount of evolutionary diversity is at risk of imminent extinction.

A trait dataset for Taiwan's breeding birds

Background

Species traits affect how a species interacts with the environment and other species and thus determine the role of the species in an ecosystem. They affect not only population dynamics of a species across space and over time, but also community structure and function through their key role in the community assembly processes. Information on species traits is also highly relevant for conservation planning as they determine the adaptive ability of a species in the face of environmental changes. However, information on species traits is usually scarce and sparsely distributed amongst diverse types of literature and sources. Difficulty in accessing comprehensive information on species traits has formed an essential knowledge gap, limiting our understanding of biodiversity patterns and ecosystem functioning and preventing effective conservation. Even for birds, a well-studied taxon, comprehensive trait information is still unavailable or distributed across different sources for many species.

New information

In this study, we compiled information from a variety of sources on 23 traits for all breeding birds, including 157 resident and 14 summer visiting species, in Taiwan and surrounding islands. The 23 traits include those related to the movement patterns, morphology, geographic distributions, activity patterns, feeding behaviour, habitat use, and breeding behaviour and strategies of the species. The trait information was obtained, not only from published literature and datasets, but also from unpublished banding records and specimen measurements. The dataset also contains derived traits, including the elevation and temperature boundaries of species distribution ranges in Taiwan. In addition, structured information on nest characters, which is seldom compiled in trait datasets, has been made available, for the first time, for the breeding birds in Taiwan. Therefore, the most comprehensive trait dataset to date on breeding birds in Taiwan will allow trait-based research and applications in diverse topics and thus enhance our understanding of the patterns and dynamics of breeding bird diversity and its functions in Taiwan.

Behavioural plasticity is associated with reduced extinction risk in birds

Behavioural plasticity is believed to reduce species vulnerability to extinction, yet global evidence supporting this hypothesis is lacking. We address this gap by quantifying the extent to which birds are observed behaving in novel ways to obtain food in the wild; based on a unique dataset of >3,800 novel behaviours, we show that species with a higher propensity to innovate are at a lower risk of global extinction and are more likely to have increasing or stable populations than less innovative birds. These results mainly reflect a higher tolerance of innovative species to habitat destruction, the main threat for birds.

Historical range contractions can predict extinction risk in extant mammals

Climate change is amongst the main threats to biodiversity. Considering extant mammals endured Quaternary climate change, we analyzed the extent to which this past change predicts current mammals’ extinction risk at global and biogeographical scales. We accessed range dynamics by modeling the potential distribution of all extant terrestrial mammals in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21,000 years ago) and in current climate conditions and used extinction risk from IUCN red list. We built General Linear Mixed-Effects Models to test the magnitude with which the variation in geographic range (ΔRange) and a proxy for abundance (ΔSuitability) between the LGM and present-day predicts current mammal’s extinction risk. We found past climate change most strongly reduced the geographical range and climatic suitability of threatened rather than non-threatened mammals. Quaternary range contractions and reduced suitability explain around 40% of species extinction risk, particularly for small-bodied mammals. At global and biogeographical scales, all groups that suffered significant Quaternary range contractions now contain a greater proportion of threatened species when compared to groups whose ranges did not significantly contract. This reinforces the importance of using historical range contractions as a key predictor of extinction risk for species in the present and future climate change scenarios and supports current efforts to fight climate change for biodiversity conservation.

Diet and isotopic niche of eastern sand darter (Ammocrypta pellucida) near the northern edge of its range: a test of niche specificity

Niche specificity can predispose species to population declines during periods of resource limitation, yet trophic niche specificity is poorly known for many small-bodied freshwater fishes. Applying a two-tiered approach involving stomach content and stable isotope analyses, we examined the diet and trophic niche of the threatened eastern sand darter (Ammocrypta pellucida (Putnam, 1863)) and co-occurring fishes in the Thames River, Ontario, Canada. As with previous studies, stomach content analysis revealed that eastern sand darter consumed a variety of benthic organisms including Chironomidae, Cladocera, Ostracoda, Oligochaeta, and Ephemeroptera; however, proportional contributions of prey groups differed based on stable isotope analysis, highlighting the potential for seasonal variation in prey consumption. Despite evidence of a generalist strategy, stable isotope analysis indicated eastern sand darter exhibited a relatively narrow trophic niche relative to co-occurring fishes. Trophic niche overlap was relatively minor between eastern sand darter and drift-feeding fishes (spotfin shiner (Cyprinella spiloptera (Cope, 1867)), emerald shiner (Notropis atherinoides Rafinesque, 1818), and buffalo sp. (genus Ictiobus Rafinesque, 1820)), but was more evident between eastern sand darter and benthic and benthopelagic fishes (johnny darter (Etheostoma nigrum Rafinesque, 1820) and blackside darter (Percina maculata (Girard, 1859))), indicating that competition with these species may be more likely during periods of prey scarcity.

Implications of existing local (mal)adaptations for ecological forecasting under environmental change

Standing genetic variation represents a genetic load on population fitness but can also support a rapid response to short-term environmental change, and the greatest potential source of such standing genetic variation typically exists among locally adapted populations living along an environmental gradient. Here, we develop a spatially explicit simulation model to quantify the contribution of existing genetic variation arising from migration-mutation-selection-drift balance to time to extinction under environmental change. Simulations reveal that local adaptation across a species range associated with an underlying environmental gradient could extend time to extinction by nearly threefold irrespective of the rate of environmental change. The potential for preadapted alleles to increase the rate of adaptation changes the relative importance of established extinction risk factors; in particular, it reduced the importance of the breadth of environmental tolerance and it increased the relative importance of fecundity. Although migration of preadapted alleles generally increased persistence time, it decreased it at rates of environmental change close to the critical rate of change by creating a population bottleneck, which ultimately limited the rate at which de novo mutations could arise. An analysis of the extinction dynamics further revealed that one consequence of gene flow is the potential to maximize population growth rate in at least part of the species range, which is likely to have consequences for forecasting the consequences of ecological interactions. Our study shows that predictions of persistence time change fundamentally when existing local adaptations are explicitly taken into account, underscoring the need to preserve and manage genetic diversity.

Integrating behaviour and ecology into global biodiversity conservation strategies

Insights into animal behaviour play an increasingly central role in species-focused conservation practice. However, progress towards incorporating behaviour into regional or global conservation strategies has been more limited, not least because standardized datasets of behavioural traits are generally lacking at wider taxonomic or spatial scales. Here we make use of the recent expansion of global datasets for birds to assess the prospects for including behavioural traits in systematic conservation priority-setting and monitoring programmes. Using International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List classifications for more than 9500 bird species, we show that the incidence of threat can vary substantially across different behavioural categories, and that some types of behaviour-including particular foraging, mating and migration strategies-are significantly more threatened than others. The link between behavioural traits and extinction risk is partly driven by correlations with well-established geographical and ecological factors (e.g. range size, body mass, human population pressure), but our models also reveal that behaviour modifies the effect of these factors, helping to explain broad-scale patterns of extinction risk. Overall, these results suggest that a multi-species approach at the scale of communities, continents and ecosystems can be used to identify and monitor threatened behaviours, and to flag up cases of latent extinction risk, where threatened status may currently be underestimated. Our findings also highlight the importance of comprehensive standardized descriptive data for ecological and behavioural traits, and point the way towards deeper integration of behaviour into quantitative conservation assessments. This article is part of the theme issue 'Linking behaviour to dynamics of populations and communities: application of novel approaches in behavioural ecology to conservation'.

Migration in the Anthropocene: how collective navigation, environmental system and taxonomy shape the vulnerability of migratory species

Recent increases in human disturbance pose significant threats to migratory species using collective movement strategies. Key threats to migrants may differ depending on behavioural traits (e.g. collective navigation), taxonomy and the environmental system (i.e. freshwater, marine or terrestrial) associated with migration. We quantitatively assess how collective navigation, taxonomic membership and environmental system impact species' vulnerability by (i) evaluating population change in migratory and non-migratory bird, mammal and fish species using the Living Planet Database (LPD), (ii) analysing the role of collective navigation and environmental system on migrant extinction risk using International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) classifications and (iii) compiling literature on geographical range change of migratory species. Likelihood of population decrease differed by taxonomic group: migratory birds were more likely to experience annual declines than non-migrants, while mammals displayed the opposite pattern. Within migratory species in IUCN, we observed that collective navigation and environmental system were important predictors of extinction risk for fishes and birds, but not for mammals, which had overall higher extinction risk than other taxa. We found high phylogenetic relatedness among collectively navigating species, which could have obscured its importance in determining extinction risk. Overall, outputs from these analyses can help guide strategic interventions to conserve the most vulnerable migrations.This article is part of the theme issue 'Collective movement ecology'.

Extinction risk in extant marine species integrating palaeontological and biodistributional data

Extinction risk assessments of marine invertebrate species remain scarce, which hinders effective management of marine biodiversity in the face of anthropogenic impacts. To help close this information gap, in this paper we provide a metric of relative extinction risk that combines palaeontological data, in the form of extinction rates calculated from the fossil record, with two known correlates of risk in the modern day: geographical range size and realized thermal niche. We test the performance of this metric-Palaeontological Extinction Risk In Lineages (PERIL)-using survivorship analyses of Pliocene bivalve faunas from California and New Zealand, and then use it to identify present-day hotspots of extinction vulnerability for extant shallow-marine Bivalvia. Areas of the ocean where concentrations of bivalve species with higher PERIL scores overlap with high levels of climatic or anthropogenic stressors should be considered of most immediate concern for both conservation and management.

Predicted effects of landscape change, sea level rise, and habitat management on the extirpation risk of the Hawaiian common gallinule (Gallinula galeata sandvicensis) on the island of O'ahu

We conducted a spatially explicit, stochastic, individually based population viability analysis for the Hawaiian common gallinule (Gallinula galeata sandvicensis), an endangered subspecies of waterbird endemic to fragmented coastal wetlands in Hawai'i. This subspecies persists on two islands, with no apparent movement between them. We assessed extirpation risk for birds on O'ahu, where the resident gallinule population is made up of several fragmented subpopulations. Data on genetic differentiation were used to delineate subpopulations and estimate dispersal rates between them. We used sensitivity analyses to gauge the impact of current uncertainty of vital rate parameters on population projections, to ascertain the relative importance of gallinule vital rates to population persistence, and to compare the efficacy of potential management strategies. We used available sea level rise projections to examine the relative vulnerability of O'ahu's gallinule population to habitat loss arising from this threat. Our model predicted persistence of the island's gallinule population at 160 years (∼40 generations), but with high probabilities of extirpation for small subpopulations. Sensitivity analyses highlighted the importance of juvenile and adult mortality to population persistence in Hawaiian gallinules, justifying current predator control efforts and suggesting the need for additional research on chick and fledgling survival. Subpopulation connectivity from dispersal had little effect on the persistence of the island-wide population, but strong effects on the persistence of smaller subpopulations. Our model also predicted island-wide population persistence under predicted sea level rise scenarios, but with O'ahu's largest gallinule populations losing >40% of current carrying capacity.

Orangutans venture out of the rainforest and into the Anthropocene

Conservation benefits from understanding how adaptability and threat interact to determine a taxon's vulnerability. Recognizing how interactions with humans have shaped taxa such as the critically endangered orangutan (Pongo spp.) offers insights into this relationship. Orangutans are viewed as icons of wild nature, and most efforts to prevent their extinction have focused on protecting minimally disturbed habitat, with limited success. We synthesize fossil, archeological, genetic, and behavioral evidence to demonstrate that at least 70,000 years of human influence have shaped orangutan distribution, abundance, and ecology and will likely continue to do so in the future. Our findings indicate that orangutans are vulnerable to hunting but appear flexible in response to some other human activities. This highlights the need for a multifaceted, landscape-level approach to orangutan conservation that leverages sound policy and cooperation among government, private sector, and community stakeholders to prevent hunting, mitigate human-orangutan conflict, and preserve and reconnect remaining natural forests. Broad cooperation can be encouraged through incentives and strategies that focus on the common interests and concerns of different stakeholders. Orangutans provide an illustrative example of how acknowledging the long and pervasive influence of humans can improve strategies to preserve biodiversity in the Anthropocene.

A comparative analysis of terrestrial arthropod assemblages from a relict forest unveils historical extinctions and colonization differences between two oceanic islands

During the last few centuries oceanic island biodiversity has been drastically modified by human-mediated activities. These changes have led to the increased homogenization of island biota and to a high number of extinctions lending support to the recognition of oceanic islands as major threatspots worldwide. Here, we investigate the impact of habitat changes on the spider and ground beetle assemblages of the native forests of Madeira (Madeira archipelago) and Terceira (Azores archipelago) and evaluate its effects on the relative contribution of rare endemics and introduced species to island biodiversity patterns. We found that the native laurel forest of Madeira supported higher species richness of spiders and ground beetles compared with Terceira, including a much larger proportion of indigenous species, particularly endemics. In Terceira, introduced species are well-represented in both terrestrial arthropod taxa and seem to thrive in native forests as shown by the analysis of species abundance distributions (SAD) and occupancy frequency distributions (OFD). Low abundance range-restricted species in Terceira are mostly introduced species dispersing from neighbouring man-made habitats while in Madeira a large number of true rare endemic species can still be found in the native laurel forest. Further, our comparative analysis shows striking differences in species richness and composition that are due to the geographical and geological particularities of the two islands, but also seem to reflect the differences in the severity of human-mediated impacts between them. The high proportion of introduced species, the virtual absence of rare native species and the finding that the SADs and OFDs of introduced species match the pattern of native species in Terceira suggest the role of man as an important driver of species diversity in oceanic islands and add evidence for an extensive and severe human-induced species loss in the native forests of Terceira.

Phylogenetic homogenization of amphibian assemblages in human-altered habitats across the globe

Habitat conversion is driving biodiversity loss and restructuring species assemblages across the globe. Responses to habitat conversion vary widely, however, and little is known about the degree to which shared evolutionary history underlies changes in species richness and composition. We analyzed data from 48 studies, comprising 438 species on five continents, to understand how taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity of amphibian assemblages shifts in response to habitat conversion. We found that evolutionary history explains the majority of variation in species' responses to habitat conversion, with specific clades scattered across the amphibian tree of life being favored by human land uses. Habitat conversion led to an average loss of 139 million years of amphibian evolutionary history within assemblages, high species and lineage turnover at landscape scales, and phylogenetic homogenization at the global scale (despite minimal taxonomic homogenization). Lineage turnover across habitats was greatest in lowland tropical regions where large species pools and stable climates have perhaps given rise to many microclimatically specialized species. Together, our results indicate that strong phylogenetic clustering of species' responses to habitat conversion mediates nonrandom structuring of local assemblages and loss of global phylogenetic diversity. In an age of rapid global change, identifying clades that are most sensitive to habitat conversion will help prioritize use of limited conservation resources.

Incorporating abundance information and guiding variable selection for climate-based ensemble forecasting of species' distributional shifts

Ecological niche models (ENMs) have increasingly been used to estimate the potential effects of climate change on species’ distributions worldwide. Recently, predictions of species abundance have also been obtained with such models, though knowledge about the climatic variables affecting species abundance is often lacking. To address this, we used a well-studied guild (temperate North American quail) and the Maxent modeling algorithm to compare model performance of three variable selection approaches: correlation/variable contribution (CVC), biological (i.e., variables known to affect species abundance), and random. We then applied the best approach to forecast potential distributions, under future climatic conditions, and analyze future potential distributions in light of available abundance data and presence-only occurrence data. To estimate species’ distributional shifts we generated ensemble forecasts using four global circulation models, four representative concentration pathways, and two time periods (2050 and 2070). Furthermore, we present distributional shifts where 75%, 90%, and 100% of our ensemble models agreed. The CVC variable selection approach outperformed our biological approach for four of the six species. Model projections indicated species-specific effects of climate change on future distributions of temperate North American quail. The Gambel’s quail (Callipepla gambelii) was the only species predicted to gain area in climatic suitability across all three scenarios of ensemble model agreement. Conversely, the scaled quail (Callipepla squamata) was the only species predicted to lose area in climatic suitability across all three scenarios of ensemble model agreement. Our models projected future loss of areas for the northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) and scaled quail in portions of their distributions which are currently areas of high abundance. Climatic variables that influence local abundance may not always scale up to influence species’ distributions. Special attention should be given to selecting variables for ENMs, and tests of model performance should be used to validate the choice of variables.