Limited evolutionary rescue of locally adapted populations facing climate change

Evolutionary ecology of dispersal in biodiverse spatially structured systems: what is old and what is new?

Dispersal is a well-recognized driver of ecological and evolutionary dynamics, and simultaneously an evolving trait. Dispersal evolution has traditionally been studied in single-species metapopulations so that it remains unclear how dispersal evolves in metacommunities and metafoodwebs, which are characterized by a multitude of species interactions. Since most natural systems are both species-rich and spatially structured, this knowledge gap should be bridged. Here, we discuss whether knowledge from dispersal evolutionary ecology established in single-species systems holds in metacommunities and metafoodwebs and we highlight generally valid and fundamental principles. Most biotic interactions form the backdrop to the ecological theatre for the evolutionary dispersal play because interactions mediate patterns of fitness expectations across space and time. While this allows for a simple transposition of certain known principles to a multispecies context, other drivers may require more complex transpositions, or might not be transferred. We discuss an important quantitative modulator of dispersal evolution-increased trait dimensionality of biodiverse meta-systems-and an additional driver: co-dispersal. We speculate that scale and selection pressure mismatches owing to co-dispersal, together with increased trait dimensionality, may lead to a slower and more 'diffuse' evolution in biodiverse meta-systems. Open questions and potential consequences in both ecological and evolutionary terms call for more investigation. This article is part of the theme issue 'Diversity-dependence of dispersal: interspecific interactions determine spatial dynamics'.

The role of epistasis in evolutionary rescue

The process by which adaptive evolution preserves a population threatened with extinction due to environmental changes is known as evolutionary rescue. Several factors determine the fate of those populations, including demography and genetic factors, such as standing genetic variation, gene flow, availability of de novo mutations, and so on. Despite the extensive debate about evolutionary rescue in the current literature, a study about the role of epistasis and the topography of the fitness landscape on the fate of dwindling populations is missing. In the current work, we aim to fill this gap and study the influence of epistasis on the probability of extinction of populations. We present simulation results, and analytical approximations are derived. Counterintuitively, we show that the likelihood of extinction is smaller when the degree of epistasis is higher. The reason underneath is twofold: first, higher epistasis can promote mutations of more significant phenotypic effects, but also, the incongruence between the maps genotype-phenotype and phenotype-fitness turns the fitness landscape at low epistasis more rugged, thus curbing some of its advantages.

Conserving Evolutionary Potential: Combining Landscape Genomics with Established Methods to Inform Plant Conservation

Biodiversity conservation requires conserving evolutionary potential-the capacity for wild populations to adapt. Understanding genetic diversity and evolutionary dynamics is critical for informing conservation decisions that enhance adaptability and persistence under environmental change. We review how emerging landscape genomic methods provide plant conservation programs with insights into evolutionary dynamics, including local adaptation and its environmental drivers. Landscape genomic approaches that explore relationships between genomic variation and environments complement rather than replace established population genomic and common garden approaches for assessing adaptive phenotypic variation, population structure, gene flow, and demography. Collectively, these approaches inform conservation actions, including genetic rescue, maladaptation prediction, and assisted gene flow. The greatest on-the-ground impacts from such studies will be realized when conservation practitioners are actively engaged in research and monitoring. Understanding the evolutionary dynamics shaping the genetic diversity of wild plant populations will inform plant conservation decisions that enhance the adaptability and persistence of species in an uncertain future.

Genomic architecture controls multivariate adaptation to climate change

As climate change advances, environmental gradients may decouple, generating novel multivariate environments that stress wild populations. A commonly invoked mechanism of evolutionary rescue is adaptive gene flow tracking climate shifts, but gene flow from populations inhabiting similar conditions on one environmental axis could cause maladaptive introgression when populations are adapted to different environmental variables that do not shift together. Genomic architecture can play an important role in determining the effectiveness and relative magnitudes of adaptive gene flow and in situ adaptation. This may have direct consequences for how species respond to climate change but is often overlooked. Here, we simulated microevolutionary responses to environmental change under scenarios defined by variation in the polygenicity, linkage, and genetic redundancy of two independent traits, one of which is adapted to a gradient that shifts under climate change. We used these simulations to examine how genomic architecture influences evolutionary outcomes under climate change. We found that climate-tracking (up-gradient) gene flow, though present in all scenarios, was strongly constrained under scenarios of lower linkage and higher polygenicity and redundancy, suggesting in situ adaptation as the predominant mechanism of evolutionary rescue under these conditions. We also found that high polygenicity caused increased maladaptation and demographic decline, a concerning result given that many climate-adapted traits may be polygenic. Finally, in scenarios with high redundancy, we observed increased adaptive capacity. This finding adds to the growing recognition of the importance of redundancy in mediating in situ adaptive capacity and suggests opportunities for better understanding the climatic vulnerability of real populations.

Not just range limits: Warming rate and thermal sensitivity shape climate change vulnerability in a species range center

Climate change manifests unevenly across space and time and produces complex patterns of stress for ecological systems. Species can also show substantial among-population variability in response to environmental change across their geographic range due to evolutionary processes. Explanatory factors or their proxies, such as temperature and latitude, help parse these sources of environmental and intraspecific variability; however, overemphasizing latitudinal trends can obscure the role of local environmental conditions in shaping population vulnerability to climate change. Focusing on the geographic center of a species range to disentangle latitude, we test the hypothesis that populations from warmer regions of a species range are more vulnerable to ocean warming. We conducted a mesocosm experiment and field reciprocal transplant with four populations of a marine snail, Nucella lamellosa, from two regions in British Columbia, Canada, that differ in thermal characteristics: the Central Coast, a cool region, and the Strait of Georgia, one of the warmest regions of this species' range and one that is warming faster than the Central Coast. Populations from the Strait of Georgia experienced growth reductions at contemporary summertime seawater temperatures in the laboratory and showed stark reductions in survival and growth under future seawater conditions and when outplanted at their native transplant sites. This indicates a high vulnerability to ocean warming, especially given the faster rate of ocean warming in this region. In contrast, populations from the cooler Central Coast demonstrated high performance at contemporary seawater temperatures and high growth and survival in projected future seawater temperatures and at their native outplant sites. Given their position within the geographic center of N. lamellosa's range, extirpation events in the vulnerable Strait of Georgia populations could compromise connectivity within the metapopulation and lead to gaps across this species' range. Overall, our study supports predictions that populations from warm regions of species ranges are more vulnerable to environmental warming, suggests that the Strait of Georgia and other inland or coastal seas could be focal points for climate change effects and ecological transformation, and emphasizes the importance of analyzing climate change vulnerability in the context of regional environmental data and throughout a species' range.

Adaptation to climate change through dispersal and inherited timing in an avian migrant

Many organisms fail to adjust their phenology sufficiently to climate change. Studies have concentrated on adaptive responses within localities, but little is known about how latitudinal dispersal enhances evolutionary potential. Rapid adaptation is expected if dispersers from lower latitudes have improved synchrony to northern conditions, thereby gain fitness and introduce genotypes on which selection acts. Here we provide experimental evidence that dispersal in an avian migrant enables rapid evolutionary adaptation. We translocated Dutch female pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) and eggs to Sweden, where breeding phenology is ~15 days later. Translocated females bred earlier, and their fitness was 2.5 times higher than local Swedish flycatchers. We show that between-population variation in timing traits is highly heritable, and hence immigration of southern genotypes promotes the necessary evolutionary response. We conclude that studies on adaptation to large-scale environmental change should not just focus on plasticity and evolution based on standing genetic variation but should also include phenotype-habitat matching through dispersal as a viable route to adjust.

Facilitated Adaptation as A Conservation Tool in the Present Climate Change Context: A Methodological Guide

Climate change poses a novel threat to biodiversity that urgently requires the development of adequate conservation strategies. Living organisms respond to environmental change by migrating to locations where their ecological niche is preserved or by adapting to the new environment. While the first response has been used to develop, discuss and implement the strategy of assisted migration, facilitated adaptation is only beginning to be considered as a potential approach. Here, we present a review of the conceptual framework for facilitated adaptation, integrating advances and methodologies from different disciplines. Briefly, facilitated adaptation involves a population reinforcement that introduces beneficial alleles to enable the evolutionary adaptation of a focal population to pressing environmental conditions. To this purpose, we propose two methodological approaches. The first one (called pre-existing adaptation approach) is based on using pre-adapted genotypes existing in the focal population, in other populations, or even in closely related species. The second approach (called de novo adaptation approach) aims to generate new pre-adapted genotypes from the diversity present in the species through artificial selection. For each approach, we present a stage-by-stage procedure, with some techniques that can be used for its implementation. The associated risks and difficulties of each approach are also discussed.

How does genetic architecture affect eco-evolutionary dynamics? A theoretical perspective

Recent studies have revealed the importance of feedbacks between contemporary rapid evolution (i.e. evolution that occurs through changes in allele frequencies) and ecological dynamics. Despite its inherent interdisciplinary nature, however, studies on eco-evolutionary feedbacks have been mostly ecological and tended to focus on adaptation at the phenotypic level without considering the genetic architecture of evolutionary processes. In empirical studies, researchers have often compared ecological dynamics when the focal species under selection has a single genotype with dynamics when it has multiple genotypes. In theoretical studies, common approaches are models of quantitative traits where mean trait values change adaptively along the fitness gradient and Mendelian traits with two alleles at a single locus. On the other hand, it is well known that genetic architecture can affect short-term evolutionary dynamics in population genetics. Indeed, recent theoretical studies have demonstrated that genetic architecture (e.g. the number of loci, linkage disequilibrium and ploidy) matters in eco-evolutionary dynamics (e.g. evolutionary rescue where rapid evolution prevents extinction and population cycles driven by (co)evolution). I propose that theoretical approaches will promote the synthesis of functional genomics and eco-evolutionary dynamics through models that combine population genetics and ecology as well as nonlinear time-series analyses using emerging big data.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Genetic basis of adaptation and speciation: from loci to causative mutations’.

RAD-Seq-Based High-Density Linkage Maps Construction and Quantitative Trait Loci Mapping of Flowering Time Trait in Alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.)

Alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) is a perennial forage crop known as the "Queen of Forages." To dissect the genetic mechanism of flowering time (FT) in alfalfa, high-density linkage maps were constructed for both parents of an F1 mapping population derived from a cross between Cangzhou (P1) and ZhongmuNO.1 (P2), consisting of 150 progenies. The FT showed a transgressive segregation pattern in the mapping population. A total of 13,773 single-nucleotide polymorphism markers was obtained by using restriction-site associated DNA sequencing and distributed on 64 linkage groups, with a total length of 3,780.49 and 4,113.45 cM and an average marker interval of 0.58 and 0.59 cM for P1 and P2 parent, respectively. Quantitative trait loci (QTL) analyses were performed using the least square means of each year as well as the best linear unbiased prediction values across 4 years. Sixteen QTLs for FT were detected for P1 and 22 QTLs for P2, accounting for 1.40-16.04% of FT variation. RNA-Seq analysis at three flowering stages identified 5,039, 7,058, and 7,996 genes that were differentially expressed between two parents, respectively. Based on QTL mapping, DEGs analysis, and functional annotation, seven candidate genes associated with flowering time were finally detected. This study discovered QTLs and candidate genes for alfalfa FT, making it a useful resource for breeding studies on this essential crop.

Anna's hummingbird (Calypte anna) physiological response to novel thermal and hypoxic conditions at high elevations

Many species have not tracked their thermal niches upslope as predicted by climate change, potentially because higher elevations are associated with abiotic challenges beyond temperature. To better predict whether organisms can continue to move upslope with rising temperatures, we need to understand their physiological performance when subjected to novel high-elevation conditions. Here, we captured Anna's hummingbirds - a species expanding their elevational distribution in concordance with rising temperatures - from across their current elevational distribution and tested their physiological response to novel abiotic conditions. First, at a central aviary within their current elevational range, we measured hovering metabolic rate to assess their response to oxygen conditions and torpor use to assess their response to thermal conditions. Second, we transported the hummingbirds to a location 1200 m above their current elevational range limit to test for an acute response to novel oxygen and thermal conditions. Hummingbirds exhibited lower hovering metabolic rates above their current elevational range limit, suggesting lower oxygen availability may reduce performance after an acute exposure. Alternatively, hummingbirds showed a facultative response to thermal conditions by using torpor more frequently and for longer. Finally, post-experimental dissection found that hummingbirds originating from higher elevations within their range had larger hearts, a potential plastic response to hypoxic environments. Overall, our results suggest lower oxygen availability and low air pressure may be difficult challenges to overcome for hummingbirds shifting upslope as a consequence of rising temperatures, especially if there is little to no long-term acclimatization. Future studies should investigate how chronic exposure and acclimatization to novel conditions, as opposed to acute experiments, may result in alternative outcomes that help organisms better respond to abiotic challenges associated with climate-induced range shifts.

Integrating population genetics and species distribution modelling to guide conservation of the noble crayfish, Astacus astacus, in Croatia

The noble crayfish, Astacus astacus, is an indigenous European freshwater species. Its populations show significant declines caused by anthropogenic pressure on its habitats, climate change and the spread of invasive species. Diminishing populations’ trends and loss of genetic diversity highlight the need for effective conservation that will ensure their long-term survival. We combined population genetics and species distribution modelling (SDM) to reveal the impact of climate change and invasive species on the noble crayfish, and to guide future conservation programs of current populations. Our study showed that Croatian populations of A. astacus harbour an important part of species genetic diversity and represent significant genetic reservoir at the European level. The SDM results predicted substantial reductions of suitable habitats for A. astacus by the 2070; only 13% of its current potential distribution is projected to remain stable under pessimistic Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5) emission scenario. Moreover, most of the populations with high genetic diversity are located in the areas predicted to become unsuitable, and consequently have a high probability of being lost in the future. Further, SDM results also indicated considerable decrease of future habitat suitability for invasive crayfish species in Croatia, suggesting that climate change poses a major threat to already endangered A. astacus. The obtained results help in the identification of populations and areas with the highest conservation value which should be given the highest priority for protection. In order to preserve present diversity in areas that are predicted as suitable, we propose assisted migration and repopulation approaches, for enhancing populations’ size and saving maximum genetic variability. The result of our research emphasizes once again the benefits of multidisciplinary approach in the modern biodiversity conservation.

DNA barcodes evidence the contact zone of eastern and western caddisfly lineages in the Western Carpathians

The region of the Western Carpathians is, among other aspects, very important for survival and diversity of European freshwater fauna due to the presence of a large number of (sub)mountain springs and streams. However, these ecologically and faunistically diversified habitats are still understudied in the context of genetic diversity and population structure of their inhabitants. This study focuses on genetic diversity and distribution patterns of the caddisfly Rhyacophila tristis, common and widespread representative of mountain freshwater fauna. Analysis of the COI mitochondrial marker revealed presence of the western and eastern lineages, with samples from both lineages being grouped in BOLD (Barcode of Life Data System) into separate BINs (Barcode Index Numbers). Our data indicates that eastern lineage (BIN_E) is more closely related to the Balkan populations than to co-occurring western lineage (BIN_W), and that the contact zone of the lineages passes through the W Carpathians. The study revealed phylogeographic and demographic differences between lineages, supporting hypothesis of their evolutionary independence and specific ecological preferences. The obtained genetic data of the R. tristis population from W Carpathians improved our knowledge about population genetics of this aquatic species and can contribute to understanding the state and evolution of biodiversity of freshwater ecosystems in Europe.

Rapid microgeographic evolution in response to climate change

Environmental change is predicted to accelerate into the future and will exert strong selection pressure on biota. Although many species may be fated to extinction, others may survive through their capacity to evolve rapidly at highly localized (i.e., microgeographic) scales. Yet, even as new examples have been discovered, the limits to such evolutionary responses have not often been evaluated. One of the first examples of microgeographic variation involved pond populations of wood frogs (Rana sylvatica). Although separated by just tens to hundreds of meters, these populations exhibited countergradient variation in intrinsic embryonic development rates when reared in a common garden. We repeated this experiment 17 years (approximately six to nine generations) later and found that microgeographic variation persists in contemporary populations. Furthermore, we found that contemporary embryos have evolved to develop 14-19% faster than those in 2001. Structural equation models indicate that the predominant cause for this response is likely due to changes in climate over the intervening 17 years. Despite potential for rapid and fine-scale evolution, demographic declines in populations experiencing the greatest changes in climate and habitat imply a limit to the species' ability to mitigate extreme environmental change.

How will mosquitoes adapt to climate warming?

The potential for adaptive evolution to enable species persistence under a changing climate is one of the most important questions for understanding impacts of future climate change. Climate adaptation may be particularly likely for short-lived ectotherms, including many pest, pathogen, and vector species. For these taxa, estimating climate adaptive potential is critical for accurate predictive modeling and public health preparedness. Here, we demonstrate how a simple theoretical framework used in conservation biology-evolutionary rescue models-can be used to investigate the potential for climate adaptation in these taxa, using mosquito thermal adaptation as a focal case. Synthesizing current evidence, we find that short mosquito generation times, high population growth rates, and strong temperature-imposed selection favor thermal adaptation. However, knowledge gaps about the extent of phenotypic and genotypic variation in thermal tolerance within mosquito populations, the environmental sensitivity of selection, and the role of phenotypic plasticity constrain our ability to make more precise estimates. We describe how common garden and selection experiments can be used to fill these data gaps. Lastly, we investigate the consequences of mosquito climate adaptation on disease transmission using Aedes aegypti-transmitted dengue virus in Northern Brazil as a case study. The approach outlined here can be applied to any disease vector or pest species and type of environmental change.

The legacy of Eastern Mediterranean mountain uplifts: rapid disparity of phylogenetic niche conservatism and divergence in mountain vipers

BACKGROUND

The orogeny of the eastern Mediterranean region has substantially affected ecological speciation patterns, particularly of mountain-dwelling species. Mountain vipers of the genus Montivipera are among the paramount examples of Mediterranean neo-endemism, with restricted ranges in the mountains of Anatolia, the Levant, Caucasus, Alborz, and Zagros. Here we explore the phylogenetic and ecological diversification of Montivipera to reconstruct its ecological niche evolution and biogeographic history. Using 177 sequences of three mitochondrial genes, a dated molecular phylogeny of mountain vipers was reconstructed. Based on 320 occurrence points within the entire range of the genus and six climatic variables, ecological niches were modelled and used to infer ancestral niche occupancy. In addition, the biogeographic history and ancestral states of the species were reconstructed across climate gradients.

RESULTS

Dated phylogenetic reconstruction revealed that the ancestor of mountain vipers split into two major clades at around 12.18 Mya followed by multiple vicariance events due to rapid orogeny. Montivipera colonised coastal regions from a mountain-dwelling ancestor. We detected a highly complex ecological niche evolution of mountain vipers to temperature seasonality, a variable that also showed a strong phylogenetic signal and high contribution in niche occupation.

CONCLUSION

Raising mountain belts in the Eastern Mediterranean region and subsequent remarkable changes in temperature seasonality have led to the formation of important centres of diversification and endemism in this biodiversity hotspot. High rates of niche conservatism, low genetic diversity, and segregation of ranges into the endemic distribution negatively influenced the adaptive capacity of mountain vipers. We suggest that these species should be considered as evolutionary significant units and priority species for conservation in Mediterranean mountain ecosystems.

Evolutionary rescue at different rates of environmental change is affected by trade-offs between short-term performance and long-term survival

As climate change accelerates and habitats free from anthropogenic impacts diminish, populations are forced to migrate or to adapt quickly. Evolutionary rescue (ER) is a phenomenon, in which a population is able to avoid extinction through adaptation. ER is considered to be more likely at slower rates of environmental change. However, the effects of correlated characters on evolutionary rescue are seldom explored yet correlated characters could play a major role in ER. We tested how evolutionary background in different fluctuating environments and the rate of environmental change affect the probability of ER by exposing populations of the bacteria Serratia marcescens to two different rates of steady temperature increase. As suggested by theory, slower environmental change allowed populations to grow more effectively even at extreme temperatures, but at the expense of long-term survival at extreme conditions due to correlated selection. Our results indicate important gap of knowledge on the effects of correlated selection during the environmental change and on evolutionary rescue at differently changing environments.

Evolutionary rescue in host-pathogen systems

Natural populations encounter a variety of threats that can increase their risk of extinction. Populations can avoid extinction through evolutionary rescue (ER), which occurs when an adaptive, genetic response to selection allows a population to recover from an environmental change that would otherwise cause extinction. While the traditional framework for ER was developed with abiotic risk factors in mind, ER may also occur in response to a biotic source of demographic change, such as the introduction of a novel pathogen. We first describe how ER in response to a pathogen differs from the traditional ER framework; density-dependent transmission, pathogen evolution, and pathogen extinction can change the strength of selection imposed by a pathogen and make host population persistence more likely. We also discuss several variables that affect traditional ER (abundance, genetic diversity, population connectivity, and community composition) that also directly affect disease risk resulting in diverse outcomes for ER in host-pathogen systems. Thus, generalizations developed in studies of traditional ER may not be relevant for ER in response to the introduction of a pathogen. Incorporating pathogens into the framework of ER will lead to a better understanding of how and when populations can avoid extinction in response to novel pathogens.

The Effect of Habitat Choice on Evolutionary Rescue in Subdivided Populations

AbstractEvolutionary rescue is the process by which a population, in response to an environmental change, successfully avoids extinction through adaptation. In spatially structured environments, dispersal can affect the probability of rescue. Here, we model an environment consisting of patches that degrade one after another, and we investigate the probability of rescue by a mutant adapted to the degraded habitat. We focus on the effects of dispersal and of immigration biases. We identify up to three regions delimiting the effect of dispersal on the probability of evolutionary rescue: (i) starting from low dispersal rates, the probability of rescue increases with dispersal; (ii) at intermediate dispersal rates, it decreases; and (iii) at large dispersal rates, it increases again with dispersal, except if mutants are too counterselected in not-yet-degraded patches. The probability of rescue is generally highest when mutant and wild-type individuals preferentially immigrate into patches that have already undergone environmental change. Additionally, we find that mutants that will eventually rescue the population most likely first appear in nondegraded patches. Overall, our results show that habitat choice, compared with the often-studied unbiased immigration scheme, can substantially alter the dynamics of population survival and adaptation to new environments.

An Experimental Test of Adaptive Introgression in Locally Adapted Populations of Splash Pool Copepods

As species struggle to keep pace with the rapidly warming climate, adaptive introgression of beneficial alleles from closely related species or populations provides a possible avenue for rapid adaptation. We investigate the potential for adaptive introgression in the copepod, Tigriopus californicus, by hybridizing two populations with divergent heat tolerance limits. We subjected hybrids to strong heat selection for 15 generations followed by whole-genome resequencing. Utilizing a hybridize evolve and resequence (HER) technique, we can identify loci responding to heat selection via a change in allele frequency. We successfully increased the heat tolerance (measured as LT50) in selected lines, which was coupled with higher frequencies of alleles from the southern (heat tolerant) population. These repeatable changes in allele frequencies occurred on all 12 chromosomes across all independent selected lines, providing evidence that heat tolerance is polygenic. These loci contained genes with lower protein-coding sequence divergence than the genome-wide average, indicating that these loci are highly conserved between the two populations. In addition, these loci were enriched in genes that changed expression patterns between selected and control lines in response to a nonlethal heat shock. Therefore, we hypothesize that the mechanism of heat tolerance divergence is explained by differential gene expression of highly conserved genes. The HER approach offers a unique solution to identifying genetic variants contributing to polygenic traits, especially variants that might be missed through other population genomic approaches.

Asymmetric Evolvability Leads to Specialization without Trade-Offs

AbstractMany organisms are specialized, and these narrow niches are often explained with trade-offs-the inability for one organism to express maximal performance in two or more environments. However, evidence is lacking that trade-offs are sufficient to explain specialists. Several lines of theoretical inquiry suggest that populations can specialize without explicit trade-offs, as a result of relaxed selection in generalists for their performance in rare environments. Here, I synthesize and extend these approaches, showing that emergent asymmetries in evolvability can push a population toward specialization in the absence of trade-offs and in the presence of substantial ecological costs of specialism. Simulations are used to demonstrate how adaptation to a more common environment interferes with adaptation to a less common but otherwise equal alternative environment and that this interference is greatly exacerbated at low recombination rates. This adaptive process of specialization can effectively trap populations in a suboptimal niche. These modeling results predict that transient differences in evolvability across traits during a single episode of adaptation could have long-term consequences for a population's niche.

Using Reciprocal Transplants to Assess Local Adaptation, Genetic Rescue, and Sexual Selection in Newly Established Populations

Small populations establishing on colonization fronts have to adapt to novel environments with limited genetic variation. The pace at which they can adapt, and the influence of genetic variation on their success, are key questions for understanding intraspecific diversity. To investigate these topics, we performed a reciprocal transplant experiment between two recently founded populations of brown trout in the sub-Antarctic Kerguelen Islands. Using individual tagging and genetic assignment methods, we tracked the fitness of local and foreign individuals, as well as the fitness of their offspring over two generations. In both populations, although not to the same extent, gene flow occurred between local and foreign gene pools. In both cases, however, we failed to detect obvious footprints of local adaptation (which should limit gene flow) and only weak support for genetic rescue (which should enhance gene flow). In the population where gene flow from foreign individuals was low, no clear differences were observed between the fitness of local, foreign, and F1 hybrid individuals. In the population where gene flow was high, foreign individuals were successful due to high mating success rather than high survival, and F1 hybrids had the same fitness as pure local offspring. These results suggest the importance of considering sexual selection, rather than just local adaptation and genetic rescue, when evaluating the determinants of success in small and recently founded populations.

Evolutionary Rescue Is Mediated by the History of Selection and Dispersal in Diversifying Metacommunities

Rapid evolution can sometimes prevent population extirpation in stressful environments, but the conditions leading to “evolutionary rescue” in metacommunities are unclear. Here we studied the eco-evolutionary response of microbial metacommunities adapting to selection by the antibiotic streptomycin. Our experiment tested how the history of antibiotic selection and contrasting modes of dispersal influenced diversification and subsequent evolutionary rescue in microbial metacommunities undergoing adaptive radiation. We first tracked the change in diversity and density of Pseudomonas fluorescens morphotypes selected on a gradient of antibiotic stress. We then examined the recovery of these metacommunities following abrupt application of a high concentration of streptomycin lethal to the ancestral organisms. We show that dispersal increases diversity within the stressed metacommunities, that exposure to stress alters diversification dynamics, and that community composition, dispersal, and past exposure to stress mediate the speed at which evolutionary rescue occurs, but not the final outcome of recovery in abundance and diversity. These findings extend recent experiments on evolutionary rescue to the case of metacommunities undergoing adaptive diversification, and should motivate new theory on this question. Our findings are also relevant to evolutionary conservation biology and research on antimicrobial resistance.

What processes must we understand to forecast regional-scale population dynamics?

An urgent challenge facing biologists is predicting the regional-scale population dynamics of species facing environmental change. Biologists suggest that we must move beyond predictions based on phenomenological models and instead base predictions on underlying processes. For example, population biologists, evolutionary biologists, community ecologists and ecophysiologists all argue that the respective processes they study are essential. Must our models include processes from all of these fields? We argue that answering this critical question is ultimately an empirical exercise requiring a substantial amount of data that have not been integrated for any system to date. To motivate and facilitate the necessary data collection and integration, we first review the potential importance of each mechanism for skilful prediction. We then develop a conceptual framework based on reaction norms, and propose a hierarchical Bayesian statistical framework to integrate processes affecting reaction norms at different scales. The ambitious research programme we advocate is rapidly becoming feasible due to novel collaborations, datasets and analytical tools.

MetaPopGen 2.0: A multilocus genetic simulator to model populations of large size

Multilocus genetic processes in subdivided populations can be complex and difficult to interpret using theoretical population genetics models. Genetic simulators offer a valid alternative to study multilocus genetic processes in arbitrarily complex scenarios. However, the use of forward-in-time simulators in realistic scenarios involving high numbers of individuals distributed in multiple local populations is limited by computation time and memory requirements. These limitations increase with the number of simulated individuals. We developed a genetic simulator, MetaPopGen 2.0, to model multilocus population genetic processes in subdivided populations of arbitrarily large size. It allows for spatial and temporal variation in demographic parameters, age structure, adult and propagule dispersal, variable mutation rates and selection on survival and fecundity. We developed MetaPopGen 2.0 in the R environment to facilitate its use by non-modeler ecologists and evolutionary biologists. We illustrate the capabilities of MetaPopGen 2.0 for studying adaptation to water salinity in the striped red mullet Mullus surmuletus.

Plant adaptation to climate change - Where are we?

Climate change poses critical challenges for population persistence in natural communities, agriculture and environmental sustainability, and food security. In this review, we discuss recent progress in climatic adaptation in plants. We evaluate whether climate change exerts novel selection and disrupts local adaptation, whether gene flow can facilitate adaptive responses to climate change, and if adaptive phenotypic plasticity could sustain populations in the short term. Furthermore, we discuss how climate change influences species interactions. Through a more in-depth understanding of these eco-evolutionary dynamics, we will increase our capacity to predict the adaptive potential of plants under climate change. In addition, we review studies that dissect the genetic basis of plant adaptation to climate change. Finally, we highlight key research gaps, ranging from validating gene function, to elucidating molecular mechanisms, expanding research systems from model species to other natural species, testing the fitness consequences of alleles in natural environments, and designing multifactorial studies that more closely reflect the complex and interactive effects of multiple climate change factors. By leveraging interdisciplinary tools (e.g., cutting-edge omics toolkits, novel ecological strategies, newly-developed genome editing technology), researchers can more accurately predict the probability that species can persist through this rapid and intense period of environmental change, as well as cultivate crops to withstand climate change, and conserve biodiversity in natural systems.

Global change biology: A primer

Because of human action, the Earth has entered an era where profound changes in the global environment are creating novel conditions that will be discernable far into the future. One consequence may be a large reduction of the Earth's biodiversity, potentially representing a sixth mass extinction. With effective stewardship, the global change drivers that threaten the Earth's biota could be alleviated, but this requires clear understanding of the drivers, their interactions, and how they impact ecological communities. This review identifies 10 anthropogenic global change drivers and discusses how six of the drivers (atmospheric CO₂ enrichment, climate change, land transformation, species exploitation, exotic species invasions, eutrophication) impact Earth's biodiversity. Driver impacts on a particular species could be positive or negative. In either case, they initiate secondary responses that cascade along ecological lines of connection and in doing so magnify the initial impact. The unique nature of the threat to the Earth's biodiversity is not simply due to the magnitude of each driver, but due to the speed of change, the novelty of the drivers, and their interactions. Emphasizing one driver, notably climate change, is problematic because the other global change drivers also degrade biodiversity and together threaten the stability of the biosphere. As the main academic journal addressing global change effects on living systems, GCB is well positioned to provide leadership in solving the global change challenge. If humanity cannot meet the challenge, then GCB is positioned to serve as a leading chronicle of the sixth mass extinction to occur on planet Earth.

A Decision Framework for Coastal Infrastructure to Optimize Biotic Resistance and Resilience in a Changing Climate

Coastal ecosystems are under growing pressure from human activities such as pollution and climate change. Although the rapidly growing numbers of humans living in coastal areas is a large part of the problem, there is great opportunity to improve the resistance and resilience of biotic communities via creative changes to the engineering design of built infrastructure. Here, we apply ecological theories to create a framework for adaptive building in marine systems that can be applied by managers worldwide. We explain how climate effects could be mitigated across different spatial scales with both physical and biological interventions. This requires an approach based on ecological theory that incorporates our understanding of how systems withstand (resistance) or recover (resilience) from impacts and takes into account future local and global environmental conditions. By translating ecological theory into practical application, we propose a framework for the choice and design of coastal infrastructure that can underpin effective, forward-looking conservation strategies.

Surfing on the seascape: Adaptation in a changing environment

The environment changes constantly at various time scales and, in order to survive, species need to keep adapting. Whether these species succeed in avoiding extinction is a major evolutionary question. Using a multilocus evolutionary model of a mutation-limited population adapting under strong selection, we investigate the effects of the frequency of environmental fluctuations on adaptation. Our results rely on an "adaptive-walk" approximation and use mathematical methods from evolutionary computation theory to investigate the interplay between fluctuation frequency, the similarity of environments, and the number of loci contributing to adaptation. First, we assume a linear additive fitness function, but later generalize our results to include several types of epistasis. We show that frequent environmental changes prevent populations from reaching a fitness peak, but they may also prevent the large fitness loss that occurs after a single environmental change. Thus, the population can survive, although not thrive, in a wide range of conditions. Furthermore, we show that in a frequently changing environment, the similarity of threats that a population faces affects the level of adaptation that it is able to achieve. We check and supplement our analytical results with simulations.

Considering adaptive genetic variation in climate change vulnerability assessment reduces species range loss projections

Forecasts of species vulnerability and extinction risk under future climate change commonly ignore local adaptations despite their importance for determining the potential of populations to respond to future changes. We present an approach to assess the impacts of global climate change on biodiversity that takes into account adaptive genetic variation and evolutionary potential. We show that considering local climatic adaptations reduces range loss projections but increases the potential for competition between species. Our findings suggest that failure to account for within-species variability can result in overestimation of future biodiversity losses. Therefore, it is important to identify the climate-adaptive potential of populations and to increase landscape connectivity between populations to enable the spread of adaptive genetic variation.

Local adaptations can determine the potential of populations to respond to environmental changes, yet adaptive genetic variation is commonly ignored in models forecasting species vulnerability and biogeographical shifts under future climate change. Here we integrate genomic and ecological modeling approaches to identify genetic adaptations associated with climate in two cryptic forest bats. We then incorporate this information directly into forecasts of range changes under future climate change and assessment of population persistence through the spread of climate-adaptive genetic variation (evolutionary rescue potential). Considering climate-adaptive potential reduced range loss projections, suggesting that failure to account for intraspecific variability can result in overestimation of future losses. On the other hand, range overlap between species was projected to increase, indicating that interspecific competition is likely to play an important role in limiting species’ future ranges. We show that although evolutionary rescue is possible, it depends on a population’s adaptive capacity and connectivity. Hence, we stress the importance of incorporating genomic data and landscape connectivity in climate change vulnerability assessments and conservation management.

Ecological pleiotropy and indirect effects alter the potential for evolutionary rescue

Invading predators can negatively affect naïve prey populations due to a lack of evolved defenses. Many species therefore may be at risk of extinction due to overexploitation by exotic predators. Yet the strong selective effect of predation might drive evolution of imperiled prey toward more resistant forms, potentially allowing the prey to persist. We evaluated the potential for evolutionary rescue in an imperiled prey using Gillespie eco-evolutionary models (GEMs). We focused on a system parameterized for protists where changes in prey body size may influence intrinsic rate of population growth, space clearance rate (initial slope of the functional response), and the energetic benefit to predators. Our results show that the likelihood of rescue depends on (a) whether multiple parameters connected to the same evolving trait (i.e., ecological pleiotropy) combine to magnify selection, (b) whether the evolving trait causes negative indirect effects on the predator population by altering the energy gain per prey, (c) whether heritable trait variation is sufficient to foster rapid evolution, and (d) whether prey abundances are stable enough to avoid very rapid extinction. We also show that when evolution fosters rescue by increasing the prey equilibrium abundance, invasive predator populations also can be rescued, potentially leading to additional negative effects on other species. Thus, ecological pleiotropy, indirect effects, and system dynamics may be important factors influencing the potential for evolutionary rescue for both imperiled prey and invading predators. These results suggest that bolstering trait variation may be key to fostering evolutionary rescue, but also that the myriad direct and indirect effects of trait change could either make rescue outcomes unpredictable or, if they occur, cause rescue to have side effects such as bolstering the populations of invasive species.

Exploring mechanisms and origins of reduced dispersal in island Komodo dragons

Loss of dispersal typifies island biotas, but the selective processes driving this phenomenon remain contentious. This is because selection via, both indirect (e.g. relaxed selection or island syndromes) and direct (e.g. natural selection or spatial sorting) processes may be involved, and no study has yet convincingly distinguished between these alternatives. Here, we combined observational and experimental analyses of an island lizard, the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis, the world's largest lizard), to provide evidence for the actions of multiple processes that could contribute to island dispersal loss. In the Komodo dragon, concordant results from telemetry, simulations, experimental translocations, mark-recapture, and gene flow studies indicated that despite impressive physical and sensory capabilities for long-distance movement, Komodo dragons exhibited near complete dispersal restriction: individuals rarely moved beyond the valleys they were born/captured in. Importantly, lizard site-fidelity was insensitive to common agents of dispersal evolution (i.e. indices of risk for inbreeding, kin and intraspecific competition, and low habitat quality) that consequently reduced survival of resident individuals. We suggest that direct selection restricts movement capacity (e.g. via benefits of spatial philopatry and increased costs of dispersal) alongside use of dispersal-compensating traits (e.g. intraspecific niche partitioning) to constrain dispersal in island species.

Rapid thermal adaptation in a marine diatom reveals constraints and trade-offs

Rapid evolution in response to environmental change will likely be a driving force determining the distribution of species across the biosphere in coming decades. This is especially true of microorganisms, many of which may evolve in step with warming, including phytoplankton, the diverse photosynthetic microbes forming the foundation of most aquatic food webs. Here we tested the capacity of a globally important, model marine diatom Thalassiosira pseudonana, for rapid evolution in response to temperature. Selection at 16 and 31°C for 350 generations led to significant divergence in several temperature response traits, demonstrating local adaptation and the existence of trade-offs associated with adaptation to different temperatures. In contrast, competitive ability for nitrogen (commonly limiting in marine systems), measured after 450 generations of temperature selection, did not diverge in a systematic way between temperatures. This study shows how rapid thermal adaptation affects key temperature and nutrient traits and, thus, a population's long-term physiological, ecological, and biogeographic response to climate change.

Evolutionary Rescue in a Linearly Changing Environment: Limits on Predictability

Populations subject to substantial environmental change that decreases absolute fitness (expected number of offspring per individual) to less than one must adapt to persist. The probability of adaptive evolutionary rescue may be influenced by factors intrinsic to the organism itself, or by features specific to the individual population and its environment. An important question (given the increasing prevalence of environmental change) is the predictability of evolutionary rescue. We used an individual-based simulation model and a related analytic model to examine population persistence, given a continuously changing environment that leads to a linear change in the optimum for a phenotypic trait under selection. Population persistence was not well predicted by the population genetics at the start of environmental change, which contrasts strongly with the results shown in prior work for persistence after a sudden environmental change. Larger populations, which had a greater scope for the generation and maintenance of beneficial genetic variation, showed a clear advantage, but increasing the rate of environmental change always decreased the probability of persistence. Extinctions occurred throughout the period of continuous change, and populations that went extinct showed little sign of their eventual fate until shortly before extinction. Partially clonal populations showed less predictability and greater vulnerability to extinction when impacted by continuous change than did fully sexual populations-any advantage gained by the initial transmission of well-adapted phenotypes via clonal reproduction is lost as the phenotypic optimum continues to shift and the generation of novel variation is required for continuous adaptation.

Genetic adaptation as a biological buffer against climate change: Potential and limitations

Climate change profoundly impacts ecosystems and their biota, resulting in range shifts, novel interactions, food web alterations, changed intensities of host-parasite interactions, and extinctions. An increasing number of studies have documented evolutionary changes in traits such as phenology and thermal tolerance. In this opinion paper, we argue that, while evolutionary responses have the potential to provide a buffer against extinctions or range shifts, a number of constraints and complexities blur this simple prediction. First, there are limits to evolutionary potential both in terms of genetic variation and demographic effects, and these limits differ strongly among taxa and populations. Second, there can be costs associated with genetic adaptation, such as a reduced evolutionary potential towards other (human-induced) environmental stressors or direct fitness costs due to tradeoffs. Third, the differential capacity of taxa to genetically respond to climate change results in novel interactions because different organism groups respond to a different degree with local compared to regional (dispersal and range shift) responses. These complexities result in additional changes in the selection pressures on populations. We conclude that evolution can provide an initial buffer against climate change for some taxa and populations but does not guarantee their survival. It does not necessarily result in reduced extinction risks across the range of taxa in a region or continent. Yet, considering evolution is crucial, as it is likely to strongly change how biota will respond to climate change and will impact which taxa will be the winners or losers at the local, metacommunity and regional scales.

An integrated framework to identify wildlife populations under threat from climate change

Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity that will produce a range of new selection pressures. Understanding species responses to climate change requires an interdisciplinary perspective, combining ecological, molecular and environmental approaches. We propose an applied integrated framework to identify populations under threat from climate change based on their extent of exposure, inherent sensitivity due to adaptive and neutral genetic variation and range shift potential. We consider intraspecific vulnerability and population-level responses, an important but often neglected conservation research priority. We demonstrate how this framework can be applied to vertebrates with limited dispersal abilities using empirical data for the bat Plecotus austriacus. We use ecological niche modelling and environmental dissimilarity analysis to locate areas at high risk of exposure to future changes. Combining outlier tests with genotype-environment association analysis, we identify potential climate-adaptive SNPs in our genomic data set and differences in the frequency of adaptive and neutral variation between populations. We assess landscape connectivity and show that changing environmental suitability may limit the future movement of individuals, thus affecting both the ability of populations to shift their distribution to climatically suitable areas and the probability of evolutionary rescue through the spread of adaptive genetic variation among populations. Therefore, a better understanding of movement ecology and landscape connectivity is needed for predicting population persistence under climate change. Our study highlights the importance of incorporating genomic data to determine sensitivity, adaptive potential and range shift potential, instead of relying solely on exposure to guide species vulnerability assessments and conservation planning.

Likelihood of changes in forest species suitability, distribution, and diversity under future climate: The case of Southern Europe

Forest conservation strategies and plans can be unsuccessful if the new habitat conditions determined by climate change are not considered. Our work aims at investigating the likelihood of future suitability, distribution and diversity for some common European forest species under the projected changes in climate, focusing on Southern Europe. We combine an Ensemble Platform for Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to five Global Circulation Models (GCMs) driven by two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), to produce maps of future climate-driven habitat suitability for ten categories of forest species and two time horizons. For each forest category and time horizon, ten maps of future distribution (5 GCMs by 2 RCPs) are thus combined in a single suitability map supplied with information about the "likelihood" adopting the IPCC terminology based on consensus among projections. Then, the statistical significance of spatially aggregated changes in forest composition at local and regional level is analyzed. Finally, we discuss the importance, among SDMs, that environmental predictors seem to have in influencing forest distribution. Future impacts of climate change appear to be diversified across forest categories. A strong change in forest regional distribution and local diversity is projected to take place, as some forest categories will find more suitable conditions in previously unsuitable locations, while for other categories the same new conditions will become less suited. A decrease in species diversity is projected in most of the area, with Alpine region showing the potentiality to become a refuge for species migration.

Evolution of density-dependent movement during experimental range expansions

Range expansions and biological invasions are prime examples of transient processes that are likely impacted by rapid evolutionary changes. As a spatial process, range expansions are driven by dispersal and movement behaviour. Although it is widely accepted that dispersal and movement may be context-dependent, for instance density-dependent, and best represented by reaction norms, the evolution of density-dependent movement during range expansions has received little experimental attention. We therefore tested current theory predicting the evolution of increased movement at low densities at range margins using highly replicated and controlled range expansion experiments across multiple genotypes of the protist model system Tetrahymena thermophila. Although rare, we found evolutionary changes during range expansions even in the absence of initial standing genetic variation. Range expansions led to the evolution of negatively density-dependent movement at range margins. In addition, we report the evolution of increased intrastrain competitive ability and concurrently decreased population growth rates in range cores. Our findings highlight the importance of understanding movement and dispersal as evolving reaction norms and plastic life-history traits of central relevance for range expansions, biological invasions and the dynamics of spatially structured systems in general.

The role of phenotypic plasticity on population differentiation

Several evolutionary processes shape the genetic and phenotypic differentiation of populations. Among them, the joint effects of gene flow, selection and phenotypic plasticity are poorly known, especially when trying to understand how maladaptive plasticity affects population divergence. We extended a quantitative genetic model of Hendry et al. (2001) to describe these joint effects on phenotypic and additive genetic divergence between two populations, and their phenotypic and genetic differentiation (PST and QST). With individual-based simulations, we tested our model predictions and further modeled allelic differentiation at neutral (FST) and adaptive (FSTQ) loci. While adaptive phenotypic plasticity allows for large phenotypic divergence and differentiation despite high gene flow, maladaptive plasticity promotes genetic divergence and generates countergradient variation, under extensive migration with phenotypic differences sometimes opposed to genetic differences. Maladaptive plasticity can also promote adaptive phenotypic divergence by reducing the effective gene flow. Overall, plasticity decouples genetic from phenotypic differences between populations, and blurs the correlation between phenotypic divergence and local adaptation. By deriving models of population differentiation for three different life cycles, we further describe the effect of a species' ecology on evolution in structured populations.

Genomic signatures of local adaptation reveal source-sink dynamics in a high gene flow fish species

Understanding source-sink dynamics is important for conservation management, particularly when climatic events alter species’ distributions. Following a 2011 ‘marine heatwave’ in Western Australia, we observed high recruitment of the endemic fisheries target species Choerodon rubescens, towards the cooler (southern) end of its distribution. Here, we use a genome wide set of 14 559 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to identify the likely source population for this recruitment event. Most loci (76%) showed low genetic divergence across the species’ range, indicating high levels of gene flow and confirming previous findings using neutral microsatellite markers. However, a small proportion of loci showed strong patterns of differentiation and exhibited patterns of population structure consistent with local adaptation. Clustering analyses based on these outlier loci indicated that recruits at the southern end of C. rubescens’ range originated 400 km to the north, at the centre of the species’ range, where average temperatures are up to 3 °C warmer. Survival of these recruits may be low because they carry alleles adapted to an environment different to the one they now reside in, but their survival is key to establishing locally adapted populations at and beyond the range edge as water temperatures increase with climate change.

Effects of Clonal Reproduction on Evolutionary Lag and Evolutionary Rescue

Evolutionary lag-the difference between mean and optimal phenotype in the current environment-is of keen interest in light of rapid environmental change. Many ecologically important organisms have life histories that include stage structure and both sexual and clonal reproduction, yet how stage structure and clonality interplay to govern a population's rate of evolution and evolutionary lag is unknown. Effects of clonal reproduction on mean phenotype partition into two portions: one that is phenotype dependent, and another that is genotype dependent. This partitioning is governed by the association between the nonadditive genetic plus random environmental component of phenotype of clonal offspring and their parents. While clonality slows phenotypic evolution toward an optimum, it can dramatically increase population survival after a sudden step change in optimal phenotype. Increased adult survival slows phenotypic evolution but facilitates population survival after a step change; this positive effect can, however, be lost given survival-fecundity trade-offs. Simulations indicate that the benefits of increased clonality under environmental change greatly depend on the nature of that change: increasing population persistence under a step change while decreasing population persistence under a continuous linear change requiring de novo variation. The impact of clonality on the probability of persistence for species in a changing world is thus inexorably linked to the temporal texture of the change they experience.