Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe outcomes with variants of concern in Ontario

Observations of COVID-19 vaccine coverage and vaccine hesitancy on COVID-19 outbreak: An American ecological study

In this ecological study, we aim to establish the role vaccines play in bringing the pandemic under control, as well as the impact of pathogen variants, vaccine hesitancy, and medical resource availability during the process by utilizing publicly available data. The study spans a three-year data collection period for daily hospital admissions due to COVID-19 and the daily reported cases of COVID-19 across all 50 states in the USA. In doing so, we aim to demonstrate the difference in severity of the SARS-CoV-2 pathogen among vaccinated and unvaccinated populations in the USA. The study assesses the correlation of COVID-19 vaccines (e.g., Pfizer, Moderna, and Janssen) and disease outcomes (transmissibility, severity, and deaths) caused by different strains of SARS-CoV-2 and establishes a negative correlation between COVID-19 vaccine and disease outcomes. By considering potential confounders in vaccine hesitancy, medical resource availability and vaccine dosage, we demonstrate the aforementioned to be insubstantial in predicting disease outcomes while the latter displays a contrasting significance in terms of disease outcomes. Between all the major variants of concern, the Delta and Omicron variants in particular have been associated with higher virulence and transmissibility factors respectively. Hence, the CDC continues to encourage the US population to get vaccinated since vaccines are one of the most effective ways to protect the community from potential outbreaks and prevent severe disease manifestations.

The relationship between vaccine acceptance and COVID-19 mortality in Europe: A Cross-Country analysis of public opinion and Epidemiological data

Introduction

More than two years after SARS-CoV-2 emerged in Wuhan, China, COVID-19 has become one of the most severe pandemics in modern human history. Prior to the widespread availability of specific vaccines in 2021, public opinion surveys indicated significant vaccine hesitancy in 26 European countries.

Materials and methods

Epidemiological data on COVID-19 morbidity and mortality for 26 European countries were collected in November 2021 and compared with the proportions of people willing to receive the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine according to public opinion surveys analysed in 2020. Correlations between various variables were calculated using the Pearson correlation test and visualized with the R programming language.

Results

Paired Student's t-test revealed no significant differences between survey results and actual vaccination rates (p = 0.9546), suggesting that the polls were good predictors. The percentage of people willing to receive the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine was significantly positively correlated with actual vaccination rates (R = 0.72, p = 0.00003) and significantly negatively correlated with the number of cumulative deaths per million people (R = -0.78, p = 0.0000024). However, there was no significant correlation with the number of cumulative cases per million people (R = -0.27, p = 0.18). These findings indicate that vaccines used in Europe were particularly effective at preventing severe COVID-19 and disease-related deaths, but did not necessarily provide strong protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection itself.

Conclusion

Encouraging widespread immunization through vaccination was crucial for rapidly improving the epidemiological situation in Europe.

A comparison of severity of illness between the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant and Delta variant

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has disproportionally affected traditionally marginalized groups. Both the Delta and Omicron variants raised concern amongst public health officials due to potentially higher infectivity rates and disease severity than prior variants. This study sought to compare disease severity between adults infected with the Omicron variant and adults infected with the Delta variant who presented to the Emergency Department at an academic, safety-net hospital in Virginia.

Methods

This retrospective cohort study used electronic medical record data of patients who presented to the Emergency Department and received a positive SARS-CoV-2 test between September 1, 2021, and January 31, 2022. Positive tests were stratified by genotypic variant through whole genome sequencing. Participants with the Omicron variant were propensity scores matched with individuals with the Delta variant.

Results

Among 500 Delta and 500 Omicron participants, 279 propensity score-matched pairs were identified. Participants were predominantly unvaccinated, with medical comorbidities, and self-identified as Black. Individuals infected with the Delta variant had more severe disease compared to those with the Omicron variant, regardless of vaccination status. Patients with kidney, liver, and respiratory disease, as well as cancer, are at higher risk for severe disease. Patients with 2 doses of COVID-19 immunization trended toward less severe disease.

Conclusions

Overall, these data further support the literature regarding the disproportionate effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on vulnerable patient populations - such as those with limited access to care, people of color, and those with chronic medical conditions - and can be used to inform public health interventions.

Investigating the effects of vaccine on COVID-19 disease propagation using a Bayesian approach

The causal impact of COVID-19 vaccine coverage on effective reproduction number R(t) under the disease control measures in the real-world scenario is understudied, making the optimal reopening strategy (e.g., when and which control measures are supposed to be conducted) during the recovery phase difficult to design. In this study, we examine the demographic heterogeneity and time variation of the vaccine effect on disease propagation based on the Bayesian structural time series analysis. Furthermore, we explore the role of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and the entrance of the Delta variant of COVID-19 in the vaccine effect for U.S. counties. The analysis highlights several important findings: First, vaccine effects vary among the age-specific population and population densities. The vaccine effect for areas with high population density or core airport hubs is 2 times higher than for areas with low population density. Besides, areas with more older people need a high vaccine coverage to help them against the more contagious variants (e.g., the Delta variant). Second, the business restriction policy and mask requirement are more effective in preventing COVID-19 infections than other NPI measures (e.g., bar closure, gather ban, and restaurant restrictions) for areas with high population density and core airport hubs. Furthermore, the mask requirement consistently amplifies the vaccine effects against disease propagation after the presence of contagious variants. Third, areas with a high percentage of older people are suggested to postpone relaxing the restaurant restriction or gather ban since they amplify the vaccine effect against disease infections. Such empirical insights assist recovery phases of the pandemic in designing more efficient reopening strategies, vaccine prioritization, and allocation policies.

Combined Infection Control Interventions Protect Essential Food Workers from Occupational Exposures to SARS-CoV-2 in the Agricultural Environment

Essential food workers experience elevated risks of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection due to prolonged occupational exposures in food production and processing areas, shared transportation (car or bus), and employer-provided shared housing. Our goal was to quantify the daily cumulative risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection for healthy susceptible produce workers and to evaluate the relative reduction in risk attributable to food industry interventions and vaccination. We simulated daily SARS-CoV-2 exposures of indoor and outdoor produce workers through six linked quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model scenarios. For each scenario, the infectious viral dose emitted by a symptomatic worker was calculated across aerosol, droplet, and fomite-mediated transmission pathways. Standard industry interventions (2-m physical distancing, handwashing, surface disinfection, universal masking, ventilation) were simulated to assess relative risk reductions from baseline risk (no interventions, 1-m distance). Implementation of industry interventions reduced an indoor worker's relative infection risk by 98.0% (0.020; 95% uncertainty interval [UI], 0.005 to 0.104) from baseline risk (1.00; 95% UI, 0.995 to 1.00) and an outdoor worker's relative infection risk by 94.5% (0.027; 95% UI, 0.013 to 0.055) from baseline risk (0.487; 95% UI, 0.257 to 0.825). Integrating these interventions with two-dose mRNA vaccinations (86 to 99% efficacy), representing a worker's protective immunity to infection, reduced the relative infection risk from baseline for indoor workers by 99.9% (0.001; 95% UI, 0.0002 to 0.005) and outdoor workers by 99.6% (0.002; 95% UI, 0.0003 to 0.005). Consistent implementation of combined industry interventions, paired with vaccination, effectively mitigates the elevated risks from occupationally acquired SARS-CoV-2 infection faced by produce workers. IMPORTANCE This is the first study to estimate the daily risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection across a variety of indoor and outdoor environmental settings relevant to food workers (e.g., shared transportation [car or bus], enclosed produce processing facility and accompanying breakroom, outdoor produce harvesting field, shared housing facility) through a linked quantitative microbial risk assessment framework. Our model has demonstrated that the elevated daily SARS-CoV-2 infection risk experienced by indoor and outdoor produce workers can be reduced below 1% when vaccinations (optimal vaccine efficacy, 86 to 99%) are implemented with recommended infection control strategies (e.g., handwashing, surface disinfection, universal masking, physical distancing, and increased ventilation). Our novel findings provide scenario-specific infection risk estimates that can be utilized by food industry managers to target high-risk scenarios with effective infection mitigation strategies, which was informed through more realistic and context-driven modeling estimates of the infection risk faced by essential food workers daily. Bundled interventions, particularly if they include vaccination, yield significant reductions (>99%) in daily SARS-CoV-2 infection risk for essential food workers in enclosed and open-air environments.

A vigorous study of fractional order mathematical model for SARS-CoV-2 epidemic with Mittag-Leffler kernel

SARS-CoV-2 and its variants have been investigated using a variety of mathematical models. In contrast to multi-strain models, SARS-CoV-2 models exhibit a memory effect that is often overlooked and more realistic. Atangana-Baleanu’s fractional-order operator is discussed in this manuscript for the analysis of the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. We investigated the transmission mechanism of the SARS-CoV-2 virus using the non-local Atangana-Baleanu fractional-order approach taking into account the different phases of infection and transmission routes. Using conventional ordinary derivative operators, our first step will be to develop a model for the proposed study. As part of the extension, we will incorporate fractional order derivatives into the model where the used operator is the fractional order operator of order Ψ1. Additionally, some basic aspects of the proposed model are examined in addition to calculating the reproduction number and determining the possible equilibrium. Stability analysis of the model is conducted to determine the necessary equilibrium conditions as they are also required in developing a numerical setup. Utilizing the theory of nonlinear functional analysis, for the model, Ulam-Hyers’ stability is established. We present a numerical scheme based on Newton’s polynomial in order to set up an iterative algorithm for the proposed ABC system. The application of this scheme to a variety of values of Φ1 indicates that there is a relationship between infection dynamics and the derivative’s order. We present further simulations which demonstrate the importance and cruciality of different parameters, as well as their effect on the dynamics and administer the disease. Furthermore, this study will provide a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying contagious diseases, thus supporting the development of policies to control them.

COVID-19 vaccination among different types of US Healthcare Personnel

BACKGROUND

Increasing vaccine coverage remains the best way to control the COVID-19 pandemic. Healthcare personnel (HCP) have long been the most credible and frequently used source of vaccine information for the public, and an HCP recommendation is a strong predictor of vaccination.

METHODS

A survey of HCP was conducted in September 2021 via a double opt-in network panel. Responses to survey items were summarized and stratified by HCP type and adjusted logistic regression models were fitted.

RESULTS

>94% of the 1074 HCP surveyed reported receiving at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine or intending to soon, with vaccinating most common among pediatricians (98%), followed by family medicine doctors (96%), pharmacists (94%), and nurses/nurse practitioners/physician assistants (88%). HCP with high trust in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had 26 times the odds of vaccinating of HCP with low trust (95%CI: 9, 74). Nearly half of unvaccinated HCP (47%) were concerned about side effects, and one third of unvaccinated HCP (33%) were concerned the vaccine was developed too quickly. About three quarters of HCP reported strongly recommending the Pfizer-BioNTech (75%) and Moderna (70%) vaccines to their patients, compared to about one quarter (24%) strongly recommending Johnson & Johnson.

CONCLUSIONS

Although most HCP are vaccinated against COVID-19 and strongly recommend vaccination to their patients, some harbor similar concerns to the public. Additional resources - regularly updated to explain the progressing scientific landscape and address ever evolving public concerns - are needed to further improve vaccine coverage among HCP and aid them in supporting the decision-making of their patients.

Modeling and numerical analysis of a fractional order model for dual variants of SARS-CoV-2☆

This paper considers the novel fractional-order operator developed by Atangana-Baleanu for transmission dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic. Assuming the importance of the non-local Atangana-Baleanu fractional-order approach, the transmission mechanism of SARS-CoV-2 has been investigated while taking into account different phases of infection and various transmission routes of the disease. To conduct the proposed study, first of all, we shall formulate the model by using the classical operator of ordinary derivatives. We utilize the fractional order derivative and the model will be extended to a model containing fractional order derivatives. The operator being used is the fractional differential operator and has fractional order Φ1. The model is analyzed further and some basic aspects of the model are investigated besides calculating the basic reproduction number and the possible equilibria of the proposed model. The equilibria of the model are examined for stability purposes and necessary conditions for stability are obtained. Stability is also necessary in terms of numerical setup. The theory of non-linear functional analysis is employed and Ulam-Hyers’s stability of the model is presented. The approach of newton’s polynomial is considered and a new numerical scheme is developed which helped in presenting an iterative process for the proposed ABC system. Based on this scheme, sample curves are obtained for various values of Φ1 and a pattern is derived between the dynamics of the infection and the order of the derivative. Further simulations are presented which show the cruciality and importance of various parameters and the impact of such parameters on the dynamics and control of the disease is presented. The findings of this study will also provide strong conceptual insights into the mechanisms of contagious diseases, assisting global professionals in developing control policies.

Knowledge, attitudes and practices of COVID-19 in rural Bangladesh: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES

Understanding the knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) of COVID-19 within distinct populations may aid further public health messaging. This study's aims were to explore KAP towards COVID-19 in rural Bangladesh and identify any potential links to sociodemographics, existing clinical conditions and sources of information.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional community-based study.

SETTING

Participants were recruited from 18 villages using multistage cluster random sampling.

METHODS

Data were collected through face-to-face interviews, from June to November 2021, using a structured questionnaire. Data included sociodemographics, clinical conditions, sources of information and KAP of COVID-19 questions. Χ² test, multiple logistic regression and correlation analyses were performed.

RESULTS

A total of 1603 participants were included with mean ages of 42.3±14.2 years, ranging from 18 to 60 years. Of these, 51% were male, 42.2% had secondary education and 45% had comorbidities. Television was the main source of COVID-19 information (55.8%). The overall correct response rate of KAP questions was 90%, 78% and 59%, respectively. In stepwise multiple logistic regression, good knowledge was associated with higher education (adjusted OR (AOR): 4.61, 95% CI: 2.40 to 8.85, p<0.001), employment, high body mass index (overweight and obese) and trust in the sources of information. Being female (AOR: 1.48, 95% CI: 1.19 to 1.85, p<0.001), having depression (AOR: 1.80, 95% CI: 1.34 to 2.43, p<0.001), being a past smoker and sources of information (family members/friends/relatives/neighbours) were associated with positive attitudes. Good practices were associated with older age (AOR: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.10 to 2.11, p=0.01), higher education (AOR: 2.78, 95% CI: 1.58 to 4.89, p<0.001) and having anxiety, while current smokers and fully vaccinated people were less likely to be engaged in good practices. Positive significant correlations between domains of KAP were observed as well as between past vaccination KAP and COVID-19 KAP.

CONCLUSION

This study uncovered gaps in understanding and practices, and identified targeted intervention especially for young and less educated people using mass media to promote updated knowledge regarding COVID-19 and the efficacy of preventive practices.

Global asymptotic stability, extinction and ergodic stationary distribution in a stochastic model for dual variants of SARS-CoV-2

Several mathematical models have been developed to investigate the dynamics SARS-CoV-2 and its different variants. Most of the multi-strain SARS-CoV-2 models do not capture an important and more realistic feature of such models known as randomness. As the dynamical behavior of most epidemics, especially SARS-CoV-2, is unarguably influenced by several random factors, it is appropriate to consider a stochastic vaccination co-infection model for two strains of SARS-CoV-2. In this work, a new stochastic model for two variants of SARS-CoV-2 is presented. The conditions of existence and the uniqueness of a unique global solution of the stochastic model are derived. Constructing an appropriate Lyapunov function, the conditions for the stochastic system to fluctuate around endemic equilibrium of the deterministic system are derived. Stationary distribution and ergodicity for the new co-infection model are also studied. Numerical simulations are carried out to validate theoretical results. It is observed that when the white noise intensities are larger than certain thresholds and the associated stochastic reproduction numbers are less than unity, both strains die out and go into extinction with unit probability. More-over, it is observed that, for weak white noise intensities, the solution of the stochastic system fluctuates around the endemic equilibrium (EE) of the deterministic model. Frequency distributions are also studied to show random fluctuations due to stochastic white noise intensities. The results presented herein also reveal the impact of vaccination in reducing the co-circulation of SARS-CoV-2 variants within a given population.

Modelling optimal vaccination strategies against COVID-19 in a context of Gamma variant predominance in Brazil

INTRODUCTION

Brazil experienced moments of collapse in its health system throughout 2021, driven by the emergence of variants of concern (VOC) combined with an inefficient initial vaccination strategy against Covid-19.

OBJECTIVES

To support decision-makers in formulating COVID-19 immunization policy in the context of limited vaccine availability and evolving variants over time, we evaluate optimal strategies for Covid-19 vaccination in Brazil in 2021, when vaccination was rolled out during Gamma variant predominance.

METHODS

Using a discrete-time epidemic model we estimate Covid-19 deaths averted, considering the currently Covid-19 vaccine products and doses available in Brazil; vaccine coverage by target population; and vaccine effectiveness estimates. We evaluated a 5-month time horizon, from early August to the end of December 2021. Optimal vaccination strategies compared the outcomes in terms of averted deaths when varying dose intervals from 8 to 12 weeks, and choosing the minimum coverage levels per age group required prior to expanding vaccination to younger target populations. We also estimated dose availability required over time to allow the implementation of optimal strategies.

RESULTS

To maximize the number of averted deaths, vaccine coverage of at least 80 % should be reached in older age groups before starting vaccination into subsequent younger age groups. When evaluating varying dose intervals for AZD1222, reducing the dose interval from 12 to 8 weeks for the primary schedule would result in fewer COVID-19 deaths, but this can only be implemented if accompanied by an increase in vaccine supply of at least 50 % over the coming six-months in Brazil.

CONCLUSION

Covid-19 immunization strategies should be tailored to local vaccine product availability and supply over time, circulating variants of concern, and vaccine coverage in target population groups. Modelling can provide valuable and timely evidence to support the implementation of vaccination strategies considering the local context, yet following international and regional technical evidence-based guidance.

Immunogenicity to COVID-19 mRNA vaccine third dose in people living with HIV

In order to investigate safety and immunogenicity of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine third dose in people living with HIV (PLWH), we analyze anti-RBD, microneutralization assay and IFN-γ production in 216 PLWH on ART with advanced disease (CD4 count <200 cell/mm³ and/or previous AIDS) receiving the third dose of a mRNA vaccine (BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273) after a median of 142 days from the second dose. Median age is 54 years, median CD4 nadir 45 cell/mm³ (20-122), 93% HIV-RNA < 50 c/mL. In 68% of PLWH at least one side-effect, generally mild, is recorded. Humoral response after the third dose was strong and higher than that achieved with the second dose (>2 log₂ difference), especially when a heterologous combination with mRNA-1273 as third shot is used. In contrast, cell-mediated immunity remain stable. Our data support usefulness of third dose in PLWH currently receiving suppressive ART who presented with severe immune dysregulation.

Inhaled therapy for COVID-19: Considerations of drugs, formulations and devices

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the etiological agent responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic, has outspread at full tilt across the world. Although several effective vaccines continue to be deployed, reliable antiviral treatments have yet to be developed against this disease. Currently, available therapeutics for COVID-19 include repurposed, and a few novel drugs. Many drugs have been promising in preclinical studies, but a majority of these drugs have shown little or no efficacy in clinical studies. One of the major reasons is the insufficient drug concentration in the lung, the primary target site of infection for SARS-CoV-2, from the administration of drugs through oral or intravenous routes. Higher effective doses administered through these routes could also lead to adverse side effects. For this reason, inhaled treatments are being tested as an efficient approach for COVID-19, allowing lower doses of drugs ensuring higher concentrations of the drug(s) in the lung. The inhaled treatment combining two or more antiviral drugs will increase potency and reduce the possibility of selecting for SARS-CoV-2 variants with reduced drug susceptibility. Finally, the appropriate drug combination needs to be delivered using a suitable system. Here, we review the current treatment for COVID-19 and their limitations, discussing the advantages of mono and combinational inhaled therapy with a brief outline of the recently reformulated anti-SARS-CoV-2 agents as inhaled formulations. The selection of appropriate delivery devices for inhalation and associated key considerations including the formulation challenges are also discussed.

COVID-19 Vaccination Status, Attitudes, and Values among US Adults in September 2021

Background: The Delta COVID-19 variant caused a resurgence in cases and deaths during the summer of 2021, particularly among the unvaccinated, highlighting the need to increase vaccine coverage. We describe a survey conducted in September 2021, in the midst of the Delta variant surge, after the FDA fully approved Pfizer-BioNTech’s vaccine for ages 16+ and issued an emergency use authorization for ages 12−15. Methods and Findings: US adults were surveyed to measure COVID-19 vaccination status, intentions, attitudes, values, and trust in public health authorities. More than three-quarters (77%) reported receiving at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccination. Of the unvaccinated, 6% intended to vaccinate, 40% were unlikely to ever vaccinate, and 55% remained uncertain. Most of the unvaccinated were <45 years old (62%), without a bachelor’s degree (83%), earning less than $85,000 annually (74%), and Republican/Independent (66%). Concerns among the unvaccinated-yet-still-uncertain included the vaccines’ safety (86%), speed of development (86%), and suspicion of government (79%) and pharmaceutical companies (69%). Most (86%) of the unvaccinated reported they would not vaccinate if mandated by their employer. About one third (34%) of the unvaccinated reported facing at least one barrier to vaccination. Conclusion: More than half of unvaccinated adults remained uncertain about COVID-19 vaccination, indicating an opportunity to support their decision making. Public health must increase easy and equitable access to vaccination and renew efforts to provide unvaccinated populations access to information from trusted sources.

SARS-CoV-2: phenotype, genotype, and characterization of different variants

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the cause of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a major international public health concern. Because of very similar amino acid sequences of the seven domain names, SARS-CoV-2 belongs to the Coronavirinae subfamily of the family Coronaviridae, order Nidovirales, and realm Riboviria, placed in exceptional clusters, but categorized as a SARS-like species. As the RNA virus family with the longest genome, the Coronaviridae genome consists of a single strand of positive RNA (25–32 kb in length). Four major structural proteins of this genome include the spike (S), membrane (M), envelope (E), and the nucleocapsid (N) protein, all of which are encoded within the 3′ end of the genome. By engaging with its receptor, angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), SARS-CoV-2 infects host cells. According to the most recent epidemiological data, as the illness spread globally, several genetic variations of SARS-CoV-2 appeared quickly, with the World Health Organization (WHO) naming 11 of them. Among these, seven SARS-CoV-2 subtypes have received the most attention. Alpha (B.1.1.7), Beta (B.1.351), Gamma (P.1), Delta (B.1.617.2), and Omicron (B.1.617.2) are now designated as variations of concern (VOC) (B.1.1.529). Lambda (C.37) and Mu are variations of interest (VOI) (B.1.621). The remaining six are either being monitored or are no longer considered a threat. On the basis of studies done so far, antiviral drugs, antibiotics, glucocorticoids, recombinant intravenous immunoglobulin, plasma therapy, and IFN-α2b have been used to treat patients. Moreover, full vaccination is associated with lower infection and helps prevent transmission, but the risk of infection cannot be eliminated completely in vaccinated people.

Nonhuman primate models for evaluation of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines

INTRODUCTION

Evaluation of immunogenicity and efficacy in animal models provide critical data in vaccine development. Nonhuman primates (NHPs) have been used extensively in the evaluation of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines.

AREAS COVERED

A critical synthesis of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine development with a focus on challenge studies in NHPs is provided. The benefits and drawbacks of the NHP models are discussed. The citations were selected by the authors based on PubMed searches of the literature, summaries from national public health bodies, and press-release information provided by vaccine developers.

EXPERT OPINION

We identify several aspects of NHP models that limit their usefulness for vaccine-challenge studies and numerous variables that constrain comparisons across vaccine platforms. We propose that studies conducted in NHPs for vaccine development should use a standardized protocol and, where possible, be substituted with smaller animal models. This will ensure continued rapid progression of vaccines to clinical trials without compromising assessments of safety or efficacy.

Impact of implementation timing on the effectiveness of stay-at-home requirement under the COVID-19 pandemic: Lessons from the Italian Case

When a new infectious outbreak emerges, governments must initially rely on non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to mitigate the impact of the pathogen. Although a strict stay-at-home requirement (i.e., lockdown) presents high effectiveness in reducing patients hospitalized in intensive care units (ICUs), it comes with unintended physical, psychological, and economic damages for the citizens. Using how Italy managed the COVID-19 outbreak from February to September 2020 on a national basis, this study aims at understanding the impact of implementation timing on the effectiveness of NPIs. Our findings may be helpful to avoid the implementation of stay-at-home requirements when it is not strictly necessary. A compartmental SEICRD model was developed to create the baseline scenario without NPIs. Generalized Poisson regressions were applied to study the change in effectiveness over-time of NPIs on Avoided ICUs for each one of the Italian regions. Our study suggests that although the stay-at-home requirement is the most effective measure in reducing ICU hospitalizations in regions encountering the outbreak early, its effectiveness decreases in regions encountering the outbreak later, where a set of other NPIs are more effective. We developed a reference of daily new cases when lockdown should be implemented or avoided, accordingly. Our findings could be useful to support policymakers in contrasting the pandemic and in limiting the societal and economic impact of stringent NPIs.

Implication of the emergence of the delta (B.1.617.2) variants on vaccine effectiveness

INTRODUCTION

COVID-19 vaccines have been developed to compact the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and have been administered to people all over the world. These vaccines have been quite effective in reducing the possibility of severe illness, hospitalization and death. However, the recent emergence of Variants of Concern specifically the delta variant, B.1.617.2, had resulted in additional waves of the pandemic.

METHODS

We aim to review the literature to understand the transmission and disease severity, and determine the efficacy of the current COVID-19 vaccines. We searched Pubmed, Scopus, and Embase till August 4th 2021, and used the search terms "delta variant", "vaccinations"," breakthrough infections", and "neutralizing antibody". For the meta-analysis, 21 studies were screened in particular and five articles (148,071 cases) were included in the study, and only four were analyzed in the meta-analysis.

RESULTS

In this review, both in vitro and in vivo studies showed significant reductions in neutralization rates against delta variants for vaccinated individuals and convalescent patients with prior history of COVID-19. However, There was a lower incidence of infection with SARS-CoV-2 due to Delta variant was found after the second dose of Pfizer-BioNTech, Oxford-AstraZeneca and Moderna vaccines.

CONCLUSION

In fully vaccinated individuals, symptomatic infection with the delta variant was significantly reduced, and therefore, vaccinations play an important role to assist the fight against delta variant.

Immune Response to COVID-19 and mRNA Vaccination in Immunocompromised Individuals: A Narrative Review

Immunocompromised individuals are at high risk of poor coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcomes and demonstrate a lower immune response to COVID-19 vaccines, including to the novel mRNA vaccines that have been shown to elicit high neutralizing antibody levels. This review synthesized available data on the immune response to COVID-19 and critically assessed mRNA COVID-19 vaccine immunogenicity in this vulnerable subpopulation. Patients with various immunocompromising conditions exhibit diverse responses to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and COVID-19 severity and mortality, and available vaccines elicit lower immune responses, particularly in solid organ transplant recipients. Strategies to improve vaccine responses in immunocompromised individuals are being implemented in vaccine recommendations, including the use of a third and fourth vaccine dose beyond the two-dose series. Additional doses may enhance vaccine effectiveness and help provide broad coverage against emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants. Continued investigation of vaccines and dosing regimens will help refine approaches to help protect this vulnerable subpopulation from COVID-19.

SARS-CoV-2 humoral immune response in patients with cardiovascular risk factors: the COmmunity Cohort Study protocol

INTRODUCTION

The COmmunity Cohort Study aims to determine, after natural exposure to SARS-CoV-2 or anti-SARS-CoV-2 vaccines deployed in Chile to prevent COVID-19 in the context of the current pandemic, the strength and duration of detectable neutralising antibodies in adult ambulatory primary care patients with cardiovascular risk factors.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will set up a community-based longitudinal, prospective cohort study. The study will be conducted in two public outpatient clinics located in the southern district of Santiago, Chile. We expect to begin recruitment in the second quarter of 2022. Each patient will be followed up for at least 1 year after inclusion in the cohort. The eligible population will be adult patients registered in the Cardiovascular Health Programme. Exposure in this study is defined as any event where participants have contact with SARS-CoV-2 antigens from natural exposure or vaccination. The primary outcomes are seroconversion and strength and duration of the neutralising IgG antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. Secondary outcomes are any COVID-19-related event or intercurrent morbidities or death. Data will be collected by extracting serial blood samples and administering a questionnaire at the first face-to-face contact and monthly follow-up time points. The sample size estimated for this study is 1060. We will characterise the cohort, determine the seroprevalence rate of neutralising antibodies at baseline and determine the rates of antibody decline using a longitudinal mixed-effects model.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The Scientific Ethics Committee of the South Metropolitan Health Care Service approved the study protocol (Memorandum No 191/2021). We will present the results in two peer-reviewed publications and national and international professional and academic meetings. We will organise seminars with relevant stakeholders and hold town hall meetings with the local community. We will set up a COmmunity Cohort Study website at www.communitystudy.cl to disseminate the study purpose, research team and milestones.

SARS-CoV-2 in silico binding affinity to human leukocyte antigen (HLA) Class II molecules predicts vaccine effectiveness across variants of concern (VOC)

There is widespread concern about the clinical effectiveness of current vaccines in preventing Covid-19 caused by SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern (Williams in Lancet Respir Med 29:333-335, 2021; Hayawi in Vaccines 9:1305, 2021), including those identified at present (Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Omicron) and possibly new ones arising in the future. It would be valuable to be able to predict vaccine effectiveness for any variant. Here we offer such an estimate of predicted vaccine effectiveness for any SARS-CoV-2 variant based on the amount of overlap of in silico high binding affinity of the variant and Wildtype spike glycoproteins to a pool of frequent Human Leukocyte Antigen Class II molecules which are necessary for initiating antibody production (Blum et al. in Annu Rev Immunol 31:443-473, 2013). The predictive model was strong (r = 0.910) and statistically significant (P = 0.013).

A Review of Different Vaccines and Strategies to Combat COVID-19

In December 2019, an unknown viral infection emerged and quickly spread worldwide, resulting in a global pandemic. This novel virus caused severe pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). It has caused 6.25 millions of deaths worldwide and remains a major concern for health, society, and the economy. As vaccination is one of the most efficient ways to combat this pandemic, different vaccines were developed in a short period. This review article discusses how coronavirus affected the top nations of the world and the vaccines being used for the prevention. Amongst the vaccines, some vaccines have already been approved, and some have been involved in clinical studies. The article also provides insight into different COVID-19 vaccine platforms, their preparation, working, efficacy, and side effects.

Vaccine-Induced Antibody Responses against SARS-CoV-2 Variants-Of-Concern Six Months after the BNT162b2 COVID-19 mRNA Vaccination

The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants has raised concern about increased transmissibility, infectivity, and immune evasion from a vaccine and infection-induced immune responses. Although COVID-19 mRNA vaccines have proven to be highly effective against severe COVID-19 disease, the decrease in vaccine efficacy against emerged Beta and Delta variants emphasizes the need for constant monitoring of new virus lineages and studies on the persistence of vaccine-induced neutralizing antibodies. To analyze the dynamics of COVID-19 mRNA vaccine-induced antibody responses, we followed 52 health care workers in Finland for 6 months after receiving two doses of BNT162b2 vaccine with a 3-week interval. We demonstrate that, although anti-S1 antibody levels decrease 2.3-fold compared to peak antibody levels, anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies persist for months after BNT162b2 vaccination. Variants D614G, Alpha, and Eta are neutralized by sera of 100% of vaccinees, whereas neutralization of Delta is 3.8-fold reduced and neutralization of Beta is 5.8-fold reduced compared to D614G. Despite this reduction, 85% of sera collected 6 months postvaccination neutralizes Delta variant. IMPORTANCE A decrease in vaccine efficacy against emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants has increased the importance of assessing the persistence of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein-specific antibodies and neutralizing antibodies. Our data show that after 6 months post two doses of BNT162b2 vaccine, antibody levels decrease yet remain detectable and capable of neutralizing emerging variants. By monitoring the vaccine-induced antibody responses, vaccination strategies and administration of booster doses can be optimized.

The Impact of Evolving SARS-CoV-2 Mutations and Variants on COVID-19 Vaccines

The emergence of several new variants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in recent months has raised concerns around the potential impact on ongoing vaccination programs. Data from clinical trials and real-world evidence suggest that current vaccines remain highly effective against the alpha variant (B.1.1.7), while some vaccines have reduced efficacy and effectiveness against symptomatic disease caused by the beta variant (B.1.351) and the delta variant (B.1.617.2); however, effectiveness against severe disease and hospitalization caused by delta remains high. Although data on the effectiveness of the primary regimen against omicron (B.1.1.529) are limited, booster programs using mRNA vaccines have been shown to restore protection against infection and symptomatic disease (regardless of the vaccine used for the primary regimen) and maintain high effectiveness against hospitalization. However, effectiveness against infection and symptomatic disease wanes with time after the booster dose. Studies have demonstrated reductions of varying magnitude in neutralizing activity of vaccine-elicited antibodies against a range of SARS-CoV-2 variants, with the omicron variant in particular exhibiting partial immune escape. However, evidence suggests that T-cell responses are preserved across vaccine platforms, regardless of variant of concern. Nevertheless, various mitigation strategies are under investigation to address the potential for reduced efficacy or effectiveness against current and future SARS-CoV-2 variants, including modification of vaccines for certain variants (including omicron), multivalent vaccine formulations, and different delivery mechanisms.

Assessment of Dietary and Lifestyle Responses After COVID-19 Vaccine Availability in Selected Arab Countries

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has been consistently associated with unhealthy lifestyle behaviors and dietary practices. This study aimed to assess the dietary and lifestyle behaviors of adults after COVID-19 vaccine availability and their attitude toward the vaccine in selected Arab countries.

Methods

A cross-sectional survey-based study was conducted between October 2021 and December 2021 using Google Forms (n = 2259). A multi-component questionnaire was used to collect socio-demographic characteristics, attitudes toward the COVID-19 vaccine, and behavioral, dietary, and lifestyle responses after easing the restriction. Participants were given a score based on the sum of positive dietary and lifestyle changes. The generalized linear models were used to identify the association between positive dietary and lifestyle changes score and sociodemographic characteristics.

Results

Weight gain during the pandemic was reported by 39.5% of the participants, 36.1% reported ever getting infected with the COVID-19 virus, and 85% received at least one dose of the vaccine. The key adverse reactions of the COVID-19 vaccine were fatigue, headache, and joint pain, and the main reason for vaccination was protection against infection. Most participants were concerned about the vaccine side effects (45.8%) and inadequate testing (50.7%). After easing of restriction, 54.3% of the participants reduced the frequency of disinfecting objects, and 58.3% joined social events. Most dietary and lifestyle behaviors remained unchanged after vaccine availability but there was an increase in the time spent behind the screen for work (50.1%) and entertainment (42.9%). The results of the multivariate regression analyses revealed that older participants (p = 0.001), those with higher education (p = 0.010), and those working from home (p = 0.040) were more likely to have higher positive dietary and lifestyle changes scores.

Conclusion

Although most participants were concerned about vaccine safety, low vaccine hesitancy rates were observed among the study sample. The availability of the COVID-19 vaccines resulted in loosening some of the safety social measures among Arab adults but the negative impact of the pandemic on dietary and lifestyle behaviors remained unaltered.

Durability of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccination in people living with HIV

Duration of protection from SARS-CoV-2 infection in people living with HIV (PWH) following vaccination is unclear. In a substudy of the phase II/III the COV002 trial (NCT04400838), 54 HIV+ male participants on antiretroviral therapy (undetectable viral loads, CD4+ T cells > 350 cells/μL) received 2 doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) 4-6 weeks apart and were followed for 6 months. Responses to vaccination were determined by serology (IgG ELISA and Meso Scale Discovery [MSD]), neutralization, ACE-2 inhibition, IFN-γ ELISpot, activation-induced marker (AIM) assay and T cell proliferation. We show that, 6 months after vaccination, the majority of measurable immune responses were greater than prevaccination baseline but with evidence of a decline in both humoral and cell-mediated immunity. There was, however, no significant difference compared with a cohort of HIV-uninfected individuals vaccinated with the same regimen. Responses to the variants of concern were detectable, although they were lower than WT. Preexisting cross-reactive T cell responses to SARS-CoV-2 spike were associated with greater postvaccine immunity and correlated with prior exposure to beta coronaviruses. These data support the ongoing policy to vaccinate PWH against SARS-CoV-2, and they underpin the need for long-term monitoring of responses after vaccination.

The impact of shifting demographics, variants of concern and vaccination on outcomes during the first 3 COVID-19 waves in Alberta and Ontario: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

In Canada, published outcome data for COVID-19 come largely from the first 2 waves of the pandemic. We examined changes in demographics and 30-day outcomes after SARS-CoV-2 infection during the first 3 pandemic waves in Alberta and Ontario; for wave 3, we compared outcomes between those infected with a variant of concern and those infected with the original "wild-type" SARS-CoV-2.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study using linked health care data sets in Alberta and Ontario. We identified all-cause hospitalizations or deaths within 30 days after a positive result on a reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction test for SARS-CoV-2 in individuals of any age between Mar. 1, 2020, and June 30, 2021, with genomic confirmation of variants of concern. We compared outcomes in wave 3 (February 2021 to June 2021) with outcomes in waves 1 and 2 combined (March 2020 to January 2021) after adjusting for age, sex and Charlson Comorbidity Index score. Using wave 3 data only, we compared outcomes by vaccination status and whether or not the individual was infected with a variant of concern.

RESULTS

Compared to those infected with SARS-CoV-2 during waves 1 and 2 (n = 372 070), we found a shift toward a younger and healthier demographic in those infected during wave 3 (n = 359 079). In wave 3, patients were more likely to be hospitalized (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.57, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.46-1.70) but had a shorter length of hospital stay (median 6 days v. 7 days, p < 0.001) and lower 30-day mortality (aOR 0.73, 95% CI 0.65-0.81). The 217 892 patients in wave 3 who were infected with a variant of concern (83.5% confirmed to have the Alpha variant, 1.7% confirmed to have the Delta variant) had a higher risk of death (Alpha: aOR 1.29, 95% CI 1.16-1.44; Delta: aOR 2.05, 95% CI 1.49-2.82) and hospitalization (Alpha: aOR 1.59, 95% CI 1.53-1.66; Delta: aOR 1.88, 95% CI 1.64-2.15) than those infected with wild-type SARS-CoV-2.

INTERPRETATION

We observed a shift among those infected with SARS-CoV-2 toward younger patients with fewer comorbidities, a shorter length of hospital stay and lower mortality risk as the pandemic evolved in Alberta and Ontario; however, infection with a variant of concern was associated with a substantially higher risk of hospitalization or death. As variants of concern emerge, ongoing monitoring of disease expression and outcomes among vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals is important to understand the phenotypes of COVID-19 and the anticipated burdens for the health care system.

Covid-19: virology, variants, and vaccines

As of 25 January 2022, over 349 million individuals have received a confirmed diagnosis of covid-19, with over 5.59 million confirmed deaths associated with the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The covid-19 pandemic has prompted an extensive global effort to study the molecular evolution of the virus and develop vaccines to prevent its spread. Although rigorous determination of SARS-CoV-2 infectivity remains elusive, owing to the continuous evolution of the virus, steps have been made to understand its genome, structure, and emerging genetic mutations. The SARS-CoV-2 genome is composed of several open reading frames and structural proteins, including the spike protein, which is essential for entry into host cells. As of 25 January 2022, the World Health Organization has reported five variants of concern, two variants of interest, and three variants under monitoring. Additional sublineages have since been identified, and are being monitored. The mutations harboured in these variants confer an increased transmissibility, severity of disease, and escape from neutralising antibodies compared with the primary strain. The current vaccine strategy, including booster doses, provides protection from severe disease. As of 24 January 2022, 33 vaccines have been approved for use in 197 countries. In this review, we discuss the genetics, structure, and transmission methods of SARS-CoV-2 and its variants, highlighting how mutations provide enhanced abilities to spread and inflict disease. This review also outlines the vaccines currently in use around the world, providing evidence for every vaccine's immunogenicity and effectiveness.

A Comprehensive Investigation Regarding the Differentiation of the Procurable COVID-19 Vaccines

COVID-19 caused by coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 became a serious threat to humankind for the past couple of years. The development of vaccine and its immediate application might be the only to escape from the grasp of this demoniac pandemic. Approximately 343 clinical trials on COVID-19 vaccines are ongoing currently, and almost all countries are motivating ongoing researches at warp speed for the development of vaccines against COVID-19. This review explores the progress in the development of the vaccines, their current status of ongoing clinical research, mechanisms, and regulatory approvals. Many pharmaceutical companies are already in the endgame for manufacturing various vaccines of which some are already being marketed across the globe, while others are yet to get approval for marketing. The primary aim of this review is to compare regulatory accepted vaccines in terms of their composition, doses, regulatory status, and efficacy. The study is conducted by grouping into approved and unapproved vaccines for marketing. Different routes of administration of vaccines along with the efficacy of the routes are also presented in the review. A wide range of database and clinical trial data is reviewed for sorting out the information on different vaccines. Unfortunately, many mutations (alpha, beta, gamma, delta, kappa, omicron etc.) of SARS-CoV-2 have attacked people in very short time, which is the great challenge for investigational vaccines. Moreover, some vaccines like Pfizer's BNT162, Oxford's ChAdOx1, Moderna's mRNA-1273, and Bharat Biotech's Covaxin have got regulatory approval in some countries for its distribution which may prove to stand tall against the pandemic.

Effectiveness of BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 Vaccines against COVID-19 Infection: A Meta-Analysis of Test-Negative Design Studies

Although numerous COVID-19 vaccines are effective against COVID-19 infection and variants of concern (VOC) in the real world, it is imperative to obtain evidence of the corresponding vaccine effectiveness (VE). This study estimates the real-world effectiveness of the BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 vaccines against COVID-19 infection and determines the influence of different virus variants on VE by using test-negative design (TND) studies. We systematically searched for published articles on the efficacy of BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 against COVID-19 infection. Two researchers independently selected and extracted data from eligible studies. We calculated the VE associated with different vaccine types, SARS-CoV-2 variants, and vaccination statuses, using an inverse variance random-effects model. We selected 19 eligible studies in the meta-analysis from 1651 records. For the partially vaccinated group, the VE of BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 was 61% and 78% against COVID-19 infection, respectively. For the completely vaccinated group, the VE of BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 was 90% and 92% against COVID-19 infection, respectively. During subgroup analyses, the overall VE of BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 against the Delta variant was 53% and 71%, respectively, for the partially vaccinated group; the respective VE values were 85% and 91% for the fully vaccinated group. Irrespective of the BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 vaccines, the Delta variant significantly weakened vaccine protection for the partially vaccinated group, while full vaccination was highly effective against COVID-19 infection and various VOC. The mRNA-1273 vaccine is more effective against COVID-19 infection and VOC than the BNT162b2 vaccine, especially for the partially vaccinated group. Overall, the results provide recommendations for national and regional vaccine policies.

The changing epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2

We have come a long way since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic-from hoarding toilet paper and wiping down groceries to sending our children back to school and vaccinating billions. Over this period, the global community of epidemiologists and evolutionary biologists has also come a long way in understanding the complex and changing dynamics of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19. In this Review, we retrace our steps through the questions that this community faced as the pandemic unfolded. We focus on the key roles that mathematical modeling and quantitative analyses of empirical data have played in allowing us to address these questions and ultimately to better understand and control the pandemic.

Risk assessment of COVID-19 epidemic resurgence in relation to SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccination passes

The introduction of COVID-19 vaccination passes (VPs) by many countries coincided with the Delta variant fast becoming dominant across Europe. A thorough assessment of their impact on epidemic dynamics is still lacking. Here, we propose the VAP-SIRS model that considers possibly lower restrictions for the VP holders than for the rest of the population, imperfect vaccination effectiveness against infection, rates of (re-)vaccination and waning immunity, fraction of never-vaccinated, and the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant. Some predicted epidemic scenarios for realistic parameter values yield new COVID-19 infection waves within two years, and high daily case numbers in the endemic state, even without introducing VPs and granting more freedom to their holders. Still, suitable adaptive policies can avoid unfavorable outcomes. While VP holders could initially be allowed more freedom, the lack of full vaccine effectiveness and increased transmissibility will require accelerated (re-)vaccination, wide-spread immunity surveillance, and/or minimal long-term common restrictions.

Assessing the impact of vaccines, other public health measures, and declining immunity on SARS-CoV-2 control is challenging. This is particularly true in the context of vaccination passes, whereby vaccinated individuals have more freedom of making contacts than unvaccinated ones. Here, we use a mathematical model to simulate various scenarios and investigate the likelihood of containing COVID-19 outbreaks in example European countries. We demonstrate that both Alpha and Delta SARS-CoV-2 variants inevitably lead to recurring outbreaks when measures are lifted for vaccination pass holders. High re-vaccination rates and a lowered fraction of the unvaccinated population increase the benefit of vaccination passes. These observations are important for policy making, highlighting the need for continued vigilance, even where the epidemic is under control, especially when new variants of concern emerge.

Krueger, Gogolewski, and Bodych et al. assess the risk of COVID-19 epidemic resurgence in relation to SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccination passes. Their model predicts that new COVID-19 infection waves within two years from the onset of the vaccination program are possible but that suitable adaptive policies can help to avoid unfavorable outcomes.

Molecular variants of SARS-CoV-2: antigenic properties and current vaccine efficacy

An ongoing pandemic of newly emerged SARS-CoV-2 has puzzled many scientists and health care policymakers around the globe. The appearance of the virus was accompanied by several distinct antigenic changes, specifically spike protein which is a key element for host cell entry of virus and major target of currently developing vaccines. Some of these mutations enable the virus to attach to receptors more firmly and easily. Moreover, a growing number of trials are demonstrating higher transmissibility and, in some of them, potentially more serious forms of illness related to novel variants. Some of these lineages, especially the Beta variant of concern, were reported to diminish the neutralizing activity of monoclonal and polyclonal antibodies present in both convalescent and vaccine sera. This could imply that these independently emerged variants could make antiviral strategies prone to serious threats. The rapid changes in the mutational profile of new clades, especially escape mutations, suggest the convergent evolution of the virus due to immune pressure. Nevertheless, great international efforts have been dedicated to producing efficacious vaccines with cutting-edge technologies. Despite the partial decrease in vaccines efficacy against worrisome clades, most current vaccines are still effective at preventing mild to severe forms of disease and hospital admission or death due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Here, we summarize existing evidence about newly emerged variants of SARS-CoV-2 and, notably, how well vaccines work against targeting new variants and modifications of highly flexible mRNA vaccines that might be required in the future.

Vaccination strategies and transmission of COVID-19: Evidence across advanced countries

Given limited supply of approved vaccines and constrained medical resources, design of a vaccination strategy to control a pandemic is an economic problem. We use time-series and panel methods with real-world country-level data to estimate effects on COVID-19 cases and deaths of two key elements of mass vaccination - time between doses and vaccine type. We find that new infections and deaths are both significantly negatively associated with the fraction of the population vaccinated with at least one dose. Conditional on first-dose coverage, an increased fraction with two doses appears to offer no further reductions in new cases and deaths. For vaccines from China, however, we find significant effects on both health outcomes only after two doses. Our results support a policy of extending the interval between first and second doses of vaccines developed in Europe and the US. As vaccination progresses, population mobility increases, which partially offsets the direct effects of vaccination. This suggests that non-pharmaceutical interventions remain important to contain transmission as vaccination is rolled out.

Assessment of Clinical Effectiveness of BNT162b2 COVID-19 Vaccine in US Adolescents

Importance

The emergence of the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant of SARS-CoV-2 has led to increases in both infections and hospitalizations among adolescents. Little is known about the effectiveness of the BNT162b2 vaccine in adolescents in the general population, as opposed to a clinical trial population.

Objective

To estimate the effectiveness of the BNT162b2 vaccine in adolescents aged 12 to 18 years.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This was a matched case-control study among adolescents (aged 12-18 years) who had results from a SARS-CoV-2 reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test. Immunization histories, relevant clinical data, and RT-PCR test results were obtained from the Yale New Haven Health System's medical records between June 1, 2021, and August 15, 2021, when the Delta variant caused 92% of infections in Connecticut. Case participants were defined as adolescents who had a positive test result and an associated medical encounter. Control participants were defined as those who had a negative test result and were matched to a case participant by age, county of residence, and date of testing.

Exposures

Adolescents were defined as fully immunized if they had received 2 doses of vaccine at least 14 days before focal time.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome measured was SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed by RT-PCR. The vaccine's effectiveness (VE) was estimated using matched odds ratios from conditional logistic regression models. Secondary measures included estimated VE by clinical symptoms, number of vaccine doses received, and elapsed time from immunization.

Results

A total of 6901 adolescents were tested for SARS-CoV-2. The final sample comprised 186 case participants and 356 matched control participants. The median age was 14 (IQR, 13-16) years, 262 (48%) identified as female, 81 (15%) as Black, 82 (15%) as Hispanic, and 297 (55%) as White. Overall, 134 (25%) were fully immunized (case participants, 10 [5%]; control participants, 124 [35%]). The median time between immunization and the SARS-CoV-2 test was 62 days (range, 17-129 days). Within 4 months of receiving 2 doses, VE against any infection was estimated to be 91% (95% CI, 80%-96%); against asymptomatic infection, 85% (95% CI, 57%-95%). Effectiveness after a single dose was estimated to be 74% (95% CI, 18%-92%).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this retrospective case-control study of US adolescents, 2 doses of BNT162b2 vaccine appeared to provide excellent protection for at least 4 months after immunization against both symptomatic and asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections.

Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccines against Delta Variant (B.1.617.2): A Meta-Analysis

Objectives: The highly transmissible COVID-19 Delta variant (DV) has contributed to a surge in cases and exacerbated the worldwide public health crisis. Several COVID-19 vaccines play a significant role in a high degree of protection against the DV. The primary purpose of this meta-analysis is to estimate the pooled effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccines against the DV in terms of risk ratio (RR) among fully vaccinated, compared to unvaccinated populations. Methods: We carried out a systematic review, with meta-analysis of original studies focused on COVID-19 vaccines effectiveness against a DV clinical perspective among fully COVID-19 vaccinated populations, compared to placebo (unvaccinated populations), published between 1 May 2021 and 30 September 2021. Eleven studies containing the data of 17.2 million participants were identified and included in our study. Pooled estimates of COVID-19 vaccines effectiveness (i.e., risk ratio, RR) against the DV with 95% confidence intervals were assessed using random-effect models. Publication bias was assessed using Egger’s regression test and funnel plot to investigate potential sources of heterogeneity and identify any differences in study design. Results: A total population of 17.2 million (17,200,341 people) were screened for the COVID-19 vaccines’ effectiveness against the DV. We found that 61.13% of the study population were fully vaccinated with two doses of COVID-19 vaccines. The weighted pooled incidence of COVID-19 infection was more than double (20.07%) among the unvaccinated population, compared to the fully vaccinated population (8.16%). Overall, the effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccine against the DV was 85% (RR = 0.15, 95% CI: 0.07–0.31). The effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines varied slidably by study designs, 87% (RR = 0.13, 95% CI: 0.06–0.30) and 84% (RR = 0.16, 95% CI: 0.02, 1.64) for cohort and case-control studies, respectively. Conclusions: The effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines were noted to offer higher protection against the DV among populations who received two vaccine doses compared with the unvaccinated population. This finding would help efforts to maximise vaccine coverage (i.e., at least 60% to 70% of the population), with two doses among vulnerable populations, in order to have herd immunity to break the chain of transmission and gain greater overall population protection more rapidly.

The ins and outs of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs)

SARS-CoV-2, a newly emerging coronavirus that caused the COVID-19 epidemic, has been spreading quickly throughout the world. Despite immunization and some fairly effective therapeutic regimens, SARS-CoV-2 has been ravaging patients, health workers, and the economy. SARS-CoV-2 mutates and evolves to adapt to its host as a result of extreme selection pressure. As a consequence, new SARS-CoV-2 variants have emerged, some of which are classified as variants of concern (VOC) because they exhibit greater transmissibility, cause more-severe disease, are better able to escape immunity, or cause higher mortality than the original Wuhan strain. Here, we introduce these VOCs and review their characteristics, such as transmissibility, immune escape, mortality risk, and diagnostics.

The effectiveness of BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine against COVID-19 caused by Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Meta-analyses were utilized to determine the overall effectiveness of BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine (Pfizer vaccine) against COVID-19 caused by Delta variant from large real-world studies. A systematic literature search with no language restriction was performed in electronic databases to identify eligible observational studies that reported the effectiveness of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine to prevent reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) confirmed COVID-19 caused by Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 (B.1.617.2). Random-effects meta-analysis model was used to estimate the pooled odds ratio (OR) at a 95% confidence interval, and the vaccine effectiveness was indicated as (pooled OR - 1)/OR. Seven studies were included for this meta-analysis. The meta-analysis revealed that the administration of BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine protected against RT-PCR confirmed COVID-19 caused by Delta variant ≥ 21 days after the first dose, with vaccine effectiveness of 55% (95% confidence interval 46-63%), as well as ≥ 14 days after the second dose, with vaccine effectiveness of 81% (95% confidence interval 69-88%). In conclusion, the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine offers a substantial protection rate against RT-PCR confirmed COVID-19 caused by the Delta variant upon full vaccination, albeit with slightly reduced effectiveness relative to other strains of SARS-CoV-2.

Impact of vaccination on the COVID-19 pandemic in U.S. states

Governments worldwide are implementing mass vaccination programs in an effort to end the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Here, we evaluated the effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccination program in its early stage and predicted the path to herd immunity in the U.S. By early March 2021, we estimated that vaccination reduced the total number of new cases by 4.4 million (from 33.0 to 28.6 million), prevented approximately 0.12 million hospitalizations (from 0.89 to 0.78 million), and decreased the population infection rate by 1.34 percentage points (from 10.10 to 8.76%). We built a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model with vaccination to predict herd immunity, following the trends from the early-stage vaccination program. Herd immunity could be achieved earlier with a faster vaccination pace, lower vaccine hesitancy, and higher vaccine effectiveness. The Delta variant has substantially postponed the predicted herd immunity date, through a combination of reduced vaccine effectiveness, lowered recovery rate, and increased infection and death rates. These findings improve our understanding of the COVID-19 vaccination and can inform future public health policies.

The viral phoenix: enhanced infectivity and immunity evasion of SARS-CoV-2 variants

SARS-CoV-2 pandemic continues with emergence of new variants of concerns. These variants are fueling the third and fourth waves of pandemic across many nations. Here we describe the new emerging variants of SARS-CoV-2 and why they have enhanced infectivity and possess the ability to evade immunity.

Public health impact of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine (BNT162b2) in the first year of rollout in the United States

BACKGROUND

As the body of evidence on COVID-19 and post-vaccination outcomes continues to expand, this analysis sought to evaluate the public health impact of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine, BNT162b2, during the first year of its rollout in the US.

METHODS

A combined Markov decision tree model compared clinical and economic outcomes of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine (BNT162b2) versus no vaccination in individuals aged ≥12 years. Age-stratified epidemiological, clinical, economic, and humanistic parameters were derived from existing data and published literature. Scenario analysis explored the impact of using lower and upper bounds of parameters on the results. The health benefits were estimated as the number of COVID-19 symptomatic cases, hospitalizations and deaths averted, and Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) saved. The economic benefits were estimated as the amount of healthcare and societal cost savings associated with the vaccine-preventable health outcomes.

RESULTS

It was estimated that, in 2021, the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine (BNT162b2) contributed to averting almost 9 million symptomatic cases, close to 700,000 hospitalizations, and over 110,000 deaths, resulting in an estimated $30.4 billion direct healthcare cost savings, $43.7 billion indirect cost savings related to productivity loss, as well as discounted gains of 1.1 million QALYs. Scenario analyses showed that these results were robust; the use of alternative plausible ranges of parameters did not change the interpretation of the findings.

CONCLUSIONS

The Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine (BNT162b2) contributed to generate substantial public health impact and vaccine-preventable cost savings in the first year of its rollout in the US. The vaccine was estimated to prevent millions of COVID-19 symptomatic cases and thousands of hospitalizations and deaths, and these averted outcomes translated into cost-savings in the billions of US dollars and thousands of QALYs saved. As only direct impacts of vaccination were considered, these estimates may be conservative.

Assessing the risk of vaccine-driven virulence evolution in SARS-CoV-2

The evolution of SARS-CoV-2 virulence, or lethality, threatens to exacerbate the burden of COVID-19 on society. How might COVID-19 vaccines alter selection for increased SARS-CoV-2 virulence? Framing current evidence surrounding SARS-CoV-2 biology and COVID-19 vaccines in the context of evolutionary theory indicates that prospects for virulence evolution remain uncertain. However, differential effects of vaccinal immunity on transmission and disease severity between respiratory compartments could select for increased virulence. To bound expectations for this outcome, we analyse an evo-epidemiological model. Synthesizing model predictions with vaccine efficacy data, we conclude that while vaccine-driven virulence remains a theoretical possibility, the risk is low if vaccines provide sustained robust protection against infection. Furthermore, we found that any increases in transmission concomitant with increases in virulence would be unlikely to threaten prospects for herd immunity in a highly immunized population. Given that virulence evolution would nevertheless impact unvaccinated individuals and populations with low vaccination rates, it is important to achieve high vaccination rates worldwide and ensure that vaccinal immunity provides robust protection against both infection and disease, potentially through the use of booster doses.

Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccines against Delta (B.1.617.2) Variant: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Clinical Studies

The high transmissibility, mortality, and morbidity rate of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta (B.1.617.2) variant have raised concerns regarding vaccine effectiveness (VE). To address this issue, all publications relevant to the effectiveness of vaccines against the Delta variant were searched in the Web of Science, Scopus, EMBASE, and Medline (via PubMed) databases up to 15 October 2021. A total of 15 studies (36 datasets) were included in the meta-analysis. After the first dose, the VE against the Delta variant for each vaccine was 0.567 (95% CI 0.520-0.613) for Pfizer-BioNTech, 0.72 (95% CI 0.589-0.822) for Moderna, 0.44 (95% CI 0.301-0.588) for AstraZeneca, and 0.138 (95% CI 0.076-0.237) for CoronaVac. Meta-analysis of 2,375,957 vaccinated cases showed that the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine had the highest VE against the infection after the second dose, at 0.837 (95% CI 0.672-0.928), and third dose, at 0.972 (95% CI 0.96-0.978), as well as the highest VE for the prevention of severe infection or death, at 0.985 (95% CI 0.95-0.99), amongst all COVID-19 vaccines. The short-term effectiveness of vaccines, especially mRNA-based vaccines, for the prevention of the Delta variant infection, hospitalization, severe infection, and death is supported by this study. Limitations include a lack of long-term efficacy data, and under-reporting of COVID-19 infection cases in observational studies, which has the potential to falsely skew VE rates. Overall, this study supports the decisions by public health decision makers to promote the population vaccination rate to control the Delta variant infection and the emergence of further variants.

COVID-19 Seroprevalence in Canada Modelling Waning and Boosting COVID-19 Immunity in Canada a Canadian Immunization Research Network Study

COVID-19 seroprevalence changes over time, with infection, vaccination, and waning immunity. Seroprevalence estimates are needed to determine when increased COVID-19 vaccination coverage is needed, and when booster doses should be considered, to reduce the spread and disease severity of COVID-19 infection. We use an age-structured model including infection, vaccination and waning immunity to estimate the distribution of immunity to COVID-19 in the Canadian population. This is the first mathematical model to do so. We estimate that 60-80% of the Canadian population has some immunity to COVID-19 by late Summer 2021, depending on specific characteristics of the vaccine and the waning rate of immunity. Models results indicate that increased vaccination uptake in age groups 12-29, and booster doses in age group 50+ are needed to reduce the severity COVID-19 Fall 2021 resurgence.

No difference in risk of hospitalisation between reported cases of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant and Alpha variant in Norway

Objectives

To estimate the risk of hospitalization among reported cases of the Delta variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) compared with the Alpha variant in Norway, and the risk of hospitalization by vaccination status.

Methods

A cohort study was conducted on laboratory-confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 in Norway, diagnosed between 3 May and 15 August 2021. Adjusted risk ratios (aRR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using multi-variable log-binomial regression, accounting for variant, vaccination status, demographic characteristics, week of sampling and underlying comorbidities.

Results

In total, 7977 cases of the Delta variant and 12,078 cases of the Alpha variant were included in this study. Overall, 347 (1.7%) cases were hospitalized. The aRR of hospitalization for the Delta variant compared with the Alpha variant was 0.97 (95% CI 0.76–1.23). Partially vaccinated cases had a 72% reduced risk of hospitalization (95% CI 59–82%), and fully vaccinated cases had a 76% reduced risk of hospitalization (95% CI 61–85%) compared with unvaccinated cases.

Conclusions

No difference was found between the risk of hospitalization for Delta cases and Alpha cases in Norway. The results of this study support the notion that partially and fully vaccinated cases are highly protected against hospitalization with coronavirus disease 2019.

COVID-19 Vaccine Booster Hesitancy (VBH) of Healthcare Workers in Czechia: National Cross-Sectional Study

The emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants and waning vaccine-elicited immunity are two public health challenges that occurred simultaneously and synergistically during the summer of 2021 and led to a surging demand for COVID-19 vaccine booster dose (BD) rollout. This study aimed to evaluate the COVID-19 vaccine booster hesitancy (VBH) among Czech healthcare workers to explore the potential determinants of VBH. A national cross-sectional survey-based study was carried out between 3 and 11 November 2021, using an online self-administered questionnaire (SAQ) that explored the participants' demographic characteristics, COVID-19 infection and vaccine anamneses, willingness to receive COVID-19 vaccine BD, and the psychosocial drivers of VBH. A total of 3454 HCW properly responded to the online SAQ, of which 80.9% were females, 30.3% were medical professionals, and 50.5% were ≤47 years old. Most of the participants were already inoculated against SARS-CoV-2 (95.2%), and BTN162b2 was the most commonly administered vaccine (90.7%). As the study sample was planned to represent the target population, it revealed a high level of BD acceptance (71.3%) among Czech HCW, while 12.2% were still hesitant and 16.6% were against the currently available BD. These results are consistent with other recent results from central Europe. Medical professional, male, and older participants were more likely to accept BD rather than allied health professional, female, and younger participants. The BDs' perceived effectiveness against severe illness, symptomatic infection, and community transmission was a significant and strong predictor for BD acceptance, while the effectiveness against the circulating variants was not that important for our target population. The BDs' perceived safety and ethical dilemmas of vaccine justice should be addressed sufficiently while communicating with HCW and other population groups. The altruistic reasons for BD acceptance, i.e., family protection, patient protection, and community health protection, underpin the recommendation of postponing the COVID-19 vaccine mandating in favour of stressing these altruistic concerns amid public health messaging.

Genomic reconstruction of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England

The evolution of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus leads to new variants that warrant timely epidemiological characterization. Here we use the dense genomic surveillance data generated by the COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium to reconstruct the dynamics of 71 different lineages in each of 315 English local authorities between September 2020 and June 2021. This analysis reveals a series of subepidemics that peaked in early autumn 2020, followed by a jump in transmissibility of the B.1.1.7/Alpha lineage. The Alpha variant grew when other lineages declined during the second national lockdown and regionally tiered restrictions between November and December 2020. A third more stringent national lockdown suppressed the Alpha variant and eliminated nearly all other lineages in early 2021. Yet a series of variants (most of which contained the spike E484K mutation) defied these trends and persisted at moderately increasing proportions. However, by accounting for sustained introductions, we found that the transmissibility of these variants is unlikely to have exceeded the transmissibility of the Alpha variant. Finally, B.1.617.2/Delta was repeatedly introduced in England and grew rapidly in early summer 2021, constituting approximately 98% of sampled SARS-CoV-2 genomes on 26 June 2021.

The herd-immunity threshold must be updated for multi-vaccine strategies and multiple variants

Several vaccines with different efficacies and effectivenesses are currently being distributed across the world to control the COVID-19 pandemic. Having enough doses from the most efficient vaccines in a short time is not possible for all countries. Hence, policymakers may propose using various combinations of available vaccines to control the pandemic with vaccine-induced herd immunity by vaccinating a fraction of the population. The classic vaccine-induced herd-immunity threshold suggests that we can stop spreading the disease by vaccinating a fraction of the population. However, that classic threshold is defined only for a single vaccine and may be invalid and biased when we have multi-vaccine strategies for a disease or multiple variants, potentially leading policymakers to suboptimal vaccine-allocation policies. Here, we determine which combination of multiple vaccines may lead to herd immunity. We show that simplifying the problem and considering the vaccination of the population as a single-vaccine strategy whose effectiveness is the sample mean of all effectivenesses would not be ideal, because many multi-vaccine strategies with a smaller herd-immunity threshold can be proposed. We show that the herd-immunity threshold may vary due to changes in vaccine-uptake proportions. Moreover, we propose methods to determine the optimal combination of multiple vaccines in order to achieve herd immunity and apply our results to the issue of multiple variants. In addition, we determine a condition for reaching herd immunity in the presence of new emerging variants of concern. We show by example that new variants could influence our estimation of the vaccination reproduction number. It follows that the herd-immunity threshold must be updated not only when multi-vaccine strategies are used but also when multiple variants coexist in the population.

Vaccine versus Variants (3Vs): Are the COVID-19 Vaccines Effective against the Variants? A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

With the emergence and spread of new SARS-CoV-2 variants, concerns are raised about the effectiveness of the existing vaccines to protect against these new variants. Although many vaccines were found to be highly effective against the reference COVID-19 strain, the same level of protection may not be found against mutation strains. The objective of this study is to systematically review relevant studies in the literature and compare the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines against new variants.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review of research published in Scopus, PubMed, and Google Scholar until 30 August 2021. Studies including clinical trials, prospective cohorts, retrospective cohorts, and test negative case-controls that reported vaccine effectiveness against any COVID-19 variants were considered. PRISMA recommendations were adopted for screening, eligibility, and inclusion.

RESULTS

129 unique studies were reviewed by the search criteria, of which 35 met the inclusion criteria. These comprised of 13 test negative case-control studies, 6 Phase 1-3 clinical trials, and 16 observational studies. The study location, type, vaccines used, variants considered, and reported efficacies were highlighted.

CONCLUSION

Full vaccination (two doses) offers strong protection against Alpha (B.1.1.7) with 13 out of 15 studies reporting more than 84% efficacy. The results are not conclusive against the Beta (B.1.351) variant for fully vaccinated individuals with 4 out of 7 studies reporting efficacies between 22 and 60% and 3 out of 7 studies reporting efficacies between 75 and 100%. Protection against Gamma (P.1) variant was lower than 50% according to two studies in fully vaccinated individuals. The data on Delta (B.1.617.2) variant is limited but indicates lower protection compared to other variants.