The declining trend in Swedish youth drinking: collectivity or polarization?

Mind the gap! Gender differences in alcohol consumption among Swedish ninth graders 1989-2021

INTRODUCTION

To examine gender differences in drinking habits among Swedish ninth graders over the period 1989-2021.

METHODS

Annual school surveys with nationally representative samples of ninth-grade students in Sweden covering the period 1989-2021, total sample of 180,538 students. Drinking habits were measured with self-reports of frequency and quantity of use and frequency of heavy episodic drinking. Differences between genders were compared annually and differences were tested using logistic and ordinary least square regression models with cluster robust standard errors.

RESULTS

Small gender differences in the prevalence of alcohol use during the first part of the study period were followed by an increasing gap over the past decade with girls being more likely to drink alcohol than boys. Boys consumed larger amounts of alcohol than girls during the first three decades of the studied period but no gender differences were found in later years. Binge drinking was more prevalent among boys during 1989 to 2000 but no systematic gender difference was found during the past 15 years.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

There used to be clear gender differences in drinking habits among ninth graders in Sweden with boys drinking more than girls. This gap has narrowed over the past three decades and among contemporary adolescents, no gender differences are found neither in binge drinking nor volume of drinking and the prevalence of drinking is even higher among girls.

Changes in patterns of alcohol consumption in young psychiatric outpatients: two comparable samples assessed with 10 years apart

AIMS

Over the past 20 years, a trend towards non-drinking and less use of alcohol has been reported among young adults. This study aimed to investigate if a similar trend in alcohol consumption can be seen among young adult psychiatric outpatients.

METHODS

This was a cross-sectional study based on two comparable samples of young adult (18-25 years) psychiatric outpatients recruited approximately 10 years apart in 2002-2003 (N = 197) and 2012-2016 (N = 380). The Swedish version of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) was used to assess alcohol consumption. Psychiatric diagnoses were based on diagnostic interviews. Differences between the two samples in alcohol consumption and a number of alcohol-use disorder diagnoses were analysed. Cramer's V was chosen as the effect size measure.

RESULTS

Mean AUDIT scores and prevalence of diagnosed alcohol-use disorder in the two samples did not differ significantly. The number of non-drinkers was larger among patients in the mid-2010s (15.8% vs. 8.1%; χ2 = 6.76, p < 0.01, Φ = 0.11), but when non-drinkers were excluded, the alcohol consumption was higher among females in the later sample.

CONCLUSION

The mean level of alcohol consumption seems not to have changed to the same extent among young psychiatric patients as in the general population. However, some young psychiatric patients have followed the trend of non-drinking, while others consume more alcohol. Further studies on both non-drinking and high alcohol consumption in psychiatric patients are needed to understand their mechanisms.

Decline in youth drinking in high-income settings: Implications for public health in low-income countries

Declining drinking among youth in many high-income countries has attracted scholarly attention and debates. Still, researchers are yet to globalize such research or examine its public health implications for low-resource settings. This commentary has two interrelated purposes. First, using evidence from Nigeria, it highlights how declining youth drinking in high-income countries may impact public health in low-income countries. Second, it highlights the necessity for research to examine youth drinking behaviours simultaneously worldwide. The declining drinking trends among young people in high-income countries have occurred simultaneously with global alcohol corporations being more aggressive in low-income countries like Nigeria. Relatedly, alcohol corporations may employ evidence regarding declines in drinking to argue against implementing stringent policies or other effective interventions in Nigeria (and other low-income settings), claiming their apparent success in the falling drinking trends in high-income settings. The article argues that research on the drinking decline among young people should be globalized because without commensurate attempts to examine their drinking behaviours/trends worldwide simultaneously, public and/or global health may be harmed for the reasons explored in this article.

Alcohol consumption trajectories over the Australian life course

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Alcohol consumption changes markedly over the life course, with important implications for health and social development. Assessment of these patterns often relies on cross-sectional data, which cannot fully capture how individuals' drinking changes as they age. This study used data from 18 waves of a general population panel survey to measure drinking trajectories over the life course in Australia.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Longitudinal survey data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey between 2001 and 2018.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 20 593 individuals ages 15 or above in two samples assessing quantity-frequency (n = 20 569, 52.0% female) and risky single occasion drinking (RSOD), respectively, (n = 17 340, 52.5% female), interviewed as part of HILDA.

MEASUREMENTS

Usual quantity of alcohol consumed per drinking occasion; frequency of drinking occasions per week; average daily consumption, calculated by combining reported usual quantity and frequency; and average reported frequency of RSOD per week.

FINDINGS

Multilevel, mixed effects models run with fractional polynomial terms found similar male and female alcohol consumption trajectories for quantity-frequency and RSOD measures. Usual quantity of alcohol consumed per drinking occasion (5.4 drinks for men, 3.8 for women) and RSOD frequency (0.56 occasions/week for men, 0.38 for women) peaked in young adulthood, whereas frequency of drinking occasions (2.5 occasions/week for men, 1.7 for women) peaked in middle age. Middle-age drinkers had the highest average daily consumption of alcohol (1.4 drinks/day for 54-year-old men, 0.6 drinks for 57-year-old women) and engaged in RSOD slightly less than young adults.

CONCLUSIONS

Alcohol consumption in Australia appears to vary substantially over the life course, with usual quantity per drinking occasion and frequency of risky single occasion drinking peaking during early adulthood and average daily consumption and frequency of consumption peaking in middle age.

Declines in alcohol consumption in Australia: some challenges to the theory of collectivity

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

There is significant debate about whether or not changes in per-capita alcohol consumption occur collectively across the entire distribution of drinking. This study used data from a decade of declining drinking in Australia to test the collectivity of drinking trends.

DESIGN

Repeated cross-sectional surveys (2010, 2013, 2016, 2019), analysed with quantile regression techniques assessing trends in drinking for 20 quantile groups.

SETTING

Australia.

PARTICIPANTS

A general population sample (total n = 85 891; males = 39 182, females = 46 709) aged 14 years and over.

MEASUREMENTS

Past-year volume of alcohol consumed was measured using standard graduated frequency survey questions. Models were stratified by sex and age group.

FINDINGS

Throughout the whole population, alcohol consumption had declined in all percentile groups, with the largest proportional declines evident for light and moderate drinkers [e.g. drinkers in the 25th percentile declined by 32.7%; 95% confidence interval (CI) = -41.6, -22.3% per wave]. Broadly collective declines were also found for younger men and women with significant declines in every percentile group, but older groups showed some evidence of polarization. For example, women aged 45-64 years significantly increased their consumption (2.9% per wave, 95% CI = 0.3-5.5%), while consumption for those in the 25th percentile fell significantly (-16.7%, 95% CI = -27.6, -4.2%).

CONCLUSIONS

The declines in Australian drinking since 2010 have included important deviations from the collectivity predicted by Skog's influential theory of collectivity of drinking, with markedly different patterns evident among different demographic groups.

17 Is the New 15: Changing Alcohol Consumption among Swedish Youth

To examine and compare trends in drinking prevalence in nationally representative samples of Swedish 9th and 11th grade students between 2000 and 2018. A further aim is to compare drinking behaviours in the two age groups during years with similar drinking prevalence. Data were drawn from annual surveys of a nationally representative sample of students in year 9 (15-16 years old) and year 11 (17-18 years old). The data covered 19 years for year 9 and 16 years for year 11. Two reference years where the prevalence of drinking was similar were extracted for further comparison, 2018 for year 11 (n = 4878) and 2005 for year 9 (n = 5423). The reference years were compared with regard to the volume of drinking, heavy episodic drinking, having had an accident and quarrelling while drunk. The prevalence of drinking declined in both age groups during the study period. The rate of decline was somewhat higher among year 9 students. In 2018, the prevalence of drinking was the same for year 11 students as it was for year 9 students in 2005. The volume of drinking was lower among year 11 students in 2018 than year 9 students in 2005. No differences were observed for heavy episodic drinking. The decline in drinking has caused a displacement of consumption so that today's 17-18-year-olds have a similar drinking behaviour to what 15-16-year-olds had in 2005.

Trends in alcohol consumption among adolescents in Europe: Do changes occur in concert?

OBJECTIVE

The present paper extends the scope of testing Skog's theory on the 'collectivity of drinking culture' to adolescent alcohol use in 26 European countries. The aim was to 1) examine whether changes in adolescent alcohol use are consistent across different consumption levels, and 2) explore whether trends in heavy and light drinkers diverged or converged.

METHOD

Data came from six waves of the cross-sectional European School Survey Project on Alcohol and other Drugs (ESPAD) between 1999 and 2019. The sample consisted of n = 452,935 students aged 15-16 years. Trends in alcohol volume across consumption levels including abstainers were estimated by quantile regression models (50th, 80th, 90th and 95th percentile). Countries were classified according to trends showing (soft/hard) collectivity or (soft/hard) polarisation. Trends in heavy drinkers were compared with the population trend.

RESULTS

Trends in alcohol consumption at different levels across 26 European countries in the period 1999-2019 were not homogeneous. Collective changes were found in 15 (14 soft/1 hard), and polarised trends in 11 countries (5 soft/6 hard). Collectivity was generally associated with a declining trend. In 18 countries, trends in heavy and light drinkers diverged.

CONCLUSION

Accepting some variation in the strength of changes across consumption levels, changes in many European countries occurred in the same direction. Yet, diverging trends at different consumption levels in most countries indicate a less beneficial change in heavy compared with light drinkers, implying that in addition to universal population-level strategies, intervention strategies targeting specific risk groups are needed to prevent alcohol-related harm.

The Australian ready-to-drink beverages tax missed its target age group

BACKGROUND

During 2008 and 2009, the Australian Government increased the tax on ready-to-drink alcoholic beverages by 70% to discourage drinking among adolescents.

METHODS

To evaluate the tax, we use the difference-in-difference and comparative interrupted time series estimators, where age is used to define the control and treatment groups. This methodology is applied to the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey.

RESULTS

We show that the tax did not affect the alcohol consumption of those aged under 25 (the tax targeted age group) but substantially reduced drinking among those aged 25-69, reducing their average daily consumption of standard drinks by 8.9% from 2010 to 2018.

CONCLUSION

The age group under 25 did not respond to the tax likely because of product substitution. Alcohol price policy may need to acknowledge complex substitute/complement relationships between beverages and consider a floor price on alcohol or a uniform volumetric tax per standard drink.

Trends in alcohol intoxication among native and immigrant youth in Sweden, 1999-2017: A comparison across family structure and parental employment status

BACKGROUND

Developing a better understanding of drinking patterns across immigrant generations and how these change over time is important for the development of effective alcohol polices. This study investigates the direction and rate of change in youth alcohol intoxication over time, based on immigrant status, and by family structure and parental employment status.

METHOD

The study is based on eight nationally representative school surveys conducted by the Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention between 1999 and 2017, with a combined sample of 50,657 adolescents. Group by time interactions were examined to compare rates of change of alcohol intoxication over time across immigrant generations.

RESULTS

The results show a decreasing trend in alcohol intoxication among both first and second generation immigrant youth, and also among immigrant youth across different family structures and parental employment statuses. The results also show that the decrease in alcohol intoxication over time is greater for youths born abroad and for youths with two immigrant parents than for native Swedes, and that the decrease over time is greater for youths from intact families than for native Swedish youths from non-intact families and youths with one immigrant parent.

CONCLUSION

Native and first- and second-generation immigrant youth may differ substantially from one another in many ways, and may therefore manifest different patterns of drinking behaviours. From a policy and prevention perspective, the data in this study imply that native youths and youths with one immigrant parent should be a central target group for alcohol prevention policy in Sweden.

[Age-specific trends in risky drinking in Germany: collectivity or polarisation?]

Einleitung

Nach der Collectivity-of-Drinking-Cultures-Theorie von Skog finden Veränderungen des Alkoholkonsums in allen Bevölkerungsgruppen und -schichten als parallele Verschiebungen statt. Ziele des vorliegenden Beitrags sind (1) die Darstellung zeitlicher Trends des riskanten Konsums und des episodischen Rauschtrinkens nach Altersgruppen und Geschlecht und (2) die Prüfung, ob die Trends in allen Altersgruppen parallel verlaufen („Kollektivität“) oder zwischen Altersgruppen divergieren („Polarisierung“).

Methoden

Datengrundlage sind 9 Erhebungen des Epidemiologischen Suchtsurveys (ESA) zwischen 1995 und 2018. Als Schwellenwert für riskanten Alkoholkonsum wurde ein täglicher Konsum von mehr als 12 g Reinalkohol bei Frauen beziehungsweise 24 g bei Männern herangezogen. Episodisches Rauschtrinken wurde als Konsum von 5 oder mehr Gläsern Alkohol (ca. 70 g Reinalkohol) an mindestens einem Tag in den letzten 30 Tagen definiert. Lineare Regressionen wurden für die Vorhersage des zeitlichen Effekts auf riskanten Konsum bzw. Rauschkonsum nach Altersgruppen (18–29, 30–39, 40–49 und 50–59 Jahre) und Geschlecht getrennt berechnet und auf Unterschiede geprüft.

Ergebnisse

Die Entwicklungen riskanten Alkoholkonsums nach Altersgruppen verlaufen bei Männern weitgehend parallel, bei Frauen gegenläufig. Die Trends des episodischen Rauschtrinken weisen bei beiden Geschlechtern keine parallele Entwicklung auf: Während in der jüngsten und ältesten Altersgruppe die Prävalenz im Zeitverlauf anstieg, sank sie in den übrigen Altersgruppen.

Diskussion

Vor dem Hintergrund einer generellen Abnahme spricht die Zunahme in den Trends risikoreichen Alkoholkonsums in bestimmten Gruppen für einen Ausbau verhaltenspräventiver Maßnahmen. Zur Fortsetzung der positiven Entwicklung und der Vermeidung einer Trendumkehr sollten zudem auf die Gesamtbevölkerung ausgerichtete Präventionsanstrengungen intensiviert werden, beispielsweise durch Erhöhung der Alkoholsteuer oder Reduktion der Verfügbarkeit von Alkohol.

Zusatzmaterial online

Zusätzliche Informationen sind in der Online-Version dieses Artikels (10.1007/s00103-021-03328-7) enthalten.

Limited Evidence of Associations Between Executive Functioning and Alcohol Involvement In UK Adolescents

Aims

Deficits in motor inhibitory control and working memory have been hypothesized to be both a cause and consequence of heavy alcohol use. Adolescence is a critical developmental stage for inhibitory control and working memory, and it is also a stage when individuals are most likely to initiate alcohol use. This study aimed to examine whether inhibitory control and working memory would predict alcohol use and involvement in a group of UK adolescents.

Methods

We recruited 220 (N = 178, female) adolescents, aged between 16 and 18, from eight higher education settings in the Merseyside region of the UK. Alcohol use was examined using the Timeline Follow-Back and involvement (and related problems) using the Adolescent Alcohol Involvement Scale. A reward-based inhibitory control task (Go/No-Go) was used to examine the inhibition and reward sensitivity, and a self-ordered pointing task was used to measure working memory.

Results

Multiple regression demonstrated that neither inhibitory control (b = 0.02 (95% confidence interval (CI): −0.21, 0.24)) nor working memory (b = −0.12 (95% CI: −0.30, 0.07)) were significant predictors of alcohol use (units consumed). Inhibitory control (b = 0.61 (95% CI: 0.12, 1.09), specifically, in the no reward condition and school deprivation (b = 0.67 (95% CI: 0.06, 1.28) significantly predicted alcohol-related problems.

Conclusions

Our findings demonstrated limited evidence that deficits in specific mechanisms of executive functioning (i.e. motor inhibition and working memory) were associated with alcohol-related problems in UK adolescents. This study adds to an increasing body of literature suggesting weak or non-existent links between inhibitory control, working memory and alcohol use.

Decline in alcohol consumption in Russia: Collectivity or polarisation?

INTRODUCTION

Sales and survey data have shown a decline in alcohol consumption in Russia since 2007. This study examines whether this decline is consistent across lighter and heavier drinkers in line with the theory of the collectivity of drinking cultures.

METHODS

Data were collected through annual nationally representative surveys conducted between 2006 and 2018 of 33 109 individuals aged 18-85 years. We estimated generalised linear regression with Gamma distribution and used log alcohol volume consumed during the previous 30 days as the dependent variable for five percentile groups: heavy drinkers (95th), near heavy drinkers (90th), moderate drinkers (80th), light drinkers (60th for men and 70th for women) and non-drinkers. Dummy variables for years, percentile groups and their interactions were used as independent variables. The controls were age, education, income, body weight, marital status, household demographic structure, residence, ethnicity and regional climate.

RESULTS

Reductions in alcohol consumption were observed in all percentiles, but the scale of change was proportionally smaller among heavier drinkers than among lighter drinkers. However, consumption fell by a smaller amount among lighter drinkers than among heavier drinkers. Results of the regression analysis fit with the descriptive statistics. Interactions between the time period and the percentile groups were significant after 2010. Trends were similar for both sexes.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

Downward trends across percentiles were in the same direction but the magnitude of change varied. Obtained evidence fails to support a polarisation and points towards soft collectivity hypothesis in the reduction in drinking in Russia.

Is the theory of collectivity of drinking cultures valid across educational groups?

Introduction

To explore whether Skog's theory of collectivity of drinking cultures is valid across groups with different socioeconomic position (SEP).

Methods

Individual‐level information on alcohol consumption and SEP for the years 2004–2014 were retrieved from the Monitoring Project; a nationally representative monthly alcohol use survey. The analytical sample consisted of 162 369 respondents aged 25–79 years. SEP was measured by education level. Alcohol use was measured by yearly volume of consumption and frequency of heavy episodic drinking (HED). Respondents were divided into six SEP‐groups based on their education level and sex. Mean yearly volume consumption and prevalence of monthly HED was calculated for each group and graphically plotted against the overall mean volume of consumption.

Results

The yearly changes in overall mean consumption during the study period reflected a collective shift in drinking across groups with basic, intermediate and high education. There were also indications that changes in overall mean consumption reflected collective shifts in the prevalence of HED across the SEP‐groups. Moreover, while the magnitude of the associations for both average volume and HED differed somewhat in strength across the SEP‐groups, they were clearly in the same, positive, direction.

Discussion and Conclusions

Our findings add support for including a socioeconomic dimension to Skog's theory of collectivity of drinking cultures. Future studies should replicate our analyses on cases and periods with more tangible changes in the price and availability of alcohol.

Trends in the psychosocial characteristics of 11-15-year-olds who still drink, smoke, take drugs and engage in poly-substance use in England

INTRODUCTION AND AIMS

Youth substance use is declining in many high-income countries. As adolescent substance use becomes less common, it may concentrate in higher-risk groups. This paper aims to examine how the psychosocial characteristics of young substance users in England have changed over time.

DESIGN AND METHODS

Annual cross-sectional data from the 2001-2014 Smoking, Drinking and Drug Use Among Young People in England survey are analysed (n = 112 792, age: 11-15). Logistic and Poisson regression analyses are used to test whether the sex, socioeconomic status (SES) and prevalence of truancy and exclusion from school of those who drink alcohol, smoke cigarettes, take cannabis, take other drugs and engage in poly-substance use changed across the study period.

RESULTS

Use of all substances decreased and there were shifts in the psychosocial characteristics of young smokers, illicit drug users and poly-substance users. The proportion of current smokers and ever-users of cannabis of low SES and who had been excluded increased significantly between 2001/2003-2014. The proportion of last month drug users who had been excluded from school also increased significantly and there were increases in the proportion of polysubstance-users who had truanted and been excluded. The proportion of low SES alcohol users who had been excluded also increased significantly, but this change was very small. There was no evidence of substance use becoming more or less concentrated in one gender.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

There is some evidence that smoking, illicit drug use and poly-substance use are becoming more concentrated in potentially at risk populations. There is limited evidence of concentration amongst young drinkers.

Alcohol use among older adults: A comparative study across four European countries

Aims:

(i) To examine whether mean consumption and prevalence of at-risk drinking are highly correlated across samples of older adults, and (ii) to explore whether sociodemographic and health characteristics of alcohol use differ across countries.

Method:

Cross-sectional surveys were conducted in four European countries, Norway, Denmark, Belgium, and Portugal, applying identical data collection methods and survey instruments in general population samples of older adults aged 60 to 75 years. Alcohol consumption was measured as units of alcohol per week, which provided the basis for categorising the two outcome measures: abstention (0 units/week) and at-risk drinking (8+ units/week). Cross-tabulations and logistic regression models were estimated to examine associations between sociodemographic and health characteristics on the one hand and alcohol abstention and at-risk drinking on the other.

Results:

Prevalence of abstention was highest in Portugal and lowest in Denmark, whereas at-risk drinking was more prevalent in Denmark and Belgium compared to Norway and Portugal. Among country- and gender-specific samples of drinkers, there was a strong positive correlation between mean consumption and prevalence of at-risk drinkers. Female gender characterised abstention, whereas male gender characterised at-risk drinking in all four countries. Other sociodemographic characteristics and indicators of health and wellbeing were differently associated with abstention and at-risk drinking across the four countries.

Conclusions:

A strong regularity in the distribution of alcohol consumption was observed in the samples of older adults. Gender was the only common factor associated with drinking behaviour across the four countries.

The Decline in Alcohol Consumption in Russia from 2006 to 2017: Do Birth Cohorts Matter?

AIM

Previous studies on youth drinking showed opposite trends for high-income and low-income countries. In Russia, a recent decline was observed in the prevalence of alcohol use, particularly among younger cohorts. This study aims at disentangling age and birth cohort effects to better understand the dynamics of abstinence and the volume of alcohol consumption.

METHODS

Data were collected from annual nationally representative panel surveys from 2006 to 2017. Data included 34,514 individuals aged 14-80. We estimated mixed-effects binary-choice models for percentage of abstainers and mixed-effects linear models with Heckman correction for alcohol volume. Integer variables of age and age-squared were used. Period was defined with a dummy variable using 2012 as the dividing line associated with a new Russian alcohol policy. Birth cohorts were defined as 13 groups from 1930-1939 to 2000-2003. Controls were per capita income, education, marital status, composition of households, body weight, ethnicity, residence type, regional per capita income and regional climate.

RESULTS

In both genders, percentage of abstainers increased and drinking volumes declined. Age for both genders showed u-shaped trend for abstinence and inverse u-shaped trend for alcohol volume. Controlling for age effects, cohorts born after 1990 demonstrated the strongest increase in abstinence for both genders and the strongest decrease in alcohol volume for males. The period of 2012-2017 had the effect of increasing the abstinence and decreasing the alcohol volume.

CONCLUSION

Downward trend in alcohol consumption in Russia is partially attributable to increased abstinence and reduced alcohol volume among younger cohorts.

The decline in youth drinking in England-is everyone drinking less? A quantile regression analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Youth alcohol consumption has declined significantly during the past 15 years in many high-income countries, which may have significant public health benefits. However, if the reductions in drinking occur mainly among lighter drinkers who are at lower risk, then rates of alcohol-related harm among young people today and adults in future may not fall in line with consumption. There is conflicting evidence from Swedish school studies, with some suggesting that all young people are drinking less, while others suggest that alcohol consumption among heavier drinkers may be stable or rising while average consumption declines. This paper extends the geographical focus of previous research and examines whether the decline in youth drinking is consistent across the consumption distribution in England.

DESIGN

Quantile regression of 15 waves of repeat cross-sectional survey data.

SETTING

England, 2001-16.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 31 882 schoolchildren (50.7% male) aged 11-15 who responded to the Smoking Drinking and Drug Use among Young People surveys.

MEASUREMENTS

Past-week alcohol consumption in UK units at each fifth percentile of the consumption distribution.

FINDINGS

Reductions in alcohol consumption occurred at all percentiles of the consumption distribution analysed between 2001 and 2016, but the magnitude of the decline differed across percentiles. The decline in consumption at the 90th percentile [β = -0.21, confidence interval (CI) = -0.24, -0.18] was significantly larger than among either lighter drinkers at the 50th percentile (β = -0.02, CI = -0.02, -0.01) or heavier drinkers at the 95th percentile (β = -0.16, CI = -0.18, -0.13).

CONCLUSIONS

Alcohol consumption among young people in England appears to be declining across the consumption distribution, and peaks among heavy drinkers. The magnitude of this decline differs significantly between percentiles of the consumption distribution, with consumption falling proportionally less among the lightest, moderate and very heaviest youth drinkers.

The collectivity of British alcohol consumption trends across different temporal processes: a quantile age-period-cohort analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

UK alcohol consumption per capita has fallen by 18% since 2004, while the alcohol-specific death rate has risen by 6%. Inconsistent consumption trends across the population may explain this. Drawing on the theory of the collectivity of drinking cultures and age-period-cohort analyses, we tested whether consumption trends are consistent across lighter and heavier drinkers for three temporal processes: (i) the life-course, (ii) calendar time and (iii) successive birth cohorts.

DESIGN

Sex-specific quantile age-period-cohort regressions using repeat cross-sectional survey data.

SETTING

Great Britain, 1984-2011.

PARTICIPANTS

Adult (18+) drinkers responding to 17 waves of the General Lifestyle Survey (total n = 175 986).

MEASUREMENTS

Dependent variables: the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, 95th and 99th quantiles of the logged weekly alcohol consumption distribution (excluding abstainers).

INDEPENDENT VARIABLES

seven age groups (18-24, 25-34… 65-74, 75+ years), five time-periods (1984-88… 2002-06, 2008-11) and 16 five-year birth cohorts (1915-19… 1990-94). Additional control variables: ethnicity and UK country.

FINDINGS

Within age, period and cohort trends, changes in consumption were not consistently in the same direction at different quantiles of the consumption distribution. When they were, the scale of change sometimes differed between quantiles. For example, between 1996-2000 and 2008-2011, consumption among women decreased by 18% [95% confidence interval (CI) = -32 to -2%] at the 10th quantile but increased by 11% (95% CI = 2-21%) at the median and by 28% (95% CI = 19-38%) at the 99th quantile, implying that consumption fell among lighter drinkers and rose among heavier drinkers. This type of polarized trend also occurred between 1984-88 and 1996-2000 for men and women. Age trends showed collectivity, but cohort trends showed a mixture of collectivity and polarization.

CONCLUSIONS

Countervailing alcohol consumption and alcohol-related harm trends in the United Kingdom may be explained by lighter and heavier drinkers having different period and cohort trends, as well as by the presence of cohort trends that mean consumption may rise in some age groups while falling in others.

Immigration and the decline in adolescent binge drinking

BACKGROUND

Adolescent alcohol consumption has fallen in most Western countries over the past two decades, while immigrants and children of immigrants from low-consumption countries constitute a growing proportion of teenagers in many Western nations. We investigate the extent to which immigrants and children of immigrants have contributed to the decline in adolescent heavy episodic drinking in Oslo, the capital of Norway.

METHODS

We use repeated cross-sectional survey data on adolescents in grades 9-11 in Oslo (aged around 14-16, N = 54,474) from 1996 to 2018. We use data on heavy episodic drinking/intoxication in the past 12 months (dichotomized), immigrant background, sex and grade. We decompose the trend into components attributable to changes in the demographic composition of the adolescent population (by immigrant background, grade and sex), and to changes in drinking patterns within different groups. Confidence intervals (CIs) are obtained by bootstrap resampling.

RESULTS

The proportion of adolescents with immigrant backgrounds increased from 21% to 35% over the time span. The proportion reporting having been intoxicated fell from 42% to 25%. Most of the decline stems from reduced heavy episodic drinking in the majority population, accounting for 70.8% of the reduction (95% CI: 67.5-74.2). The increased proportion of adolescents with an immigrant background accounts for 21.4% of the decline (95% CI: 19.2-23.8).

CONCLUSIONS

An increasing proportion of immigrants and children of immigrants with low alcohol consumption explains one-fifth of the decline in the prevalence of adolescent heavy episodic drinking in Oslo.

Young cohorts of Russians drink less: age-period-cohort modelling of alcohol use prevalence 1994-2016

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Young Russians have been drinking less alcohol, and fewer strong spirits in particular, in recent years. This study aimed to disentangle age, period and birth cohort effects for the first time in Russia to improve our understanding of these trends.

DESIGN

Age, period and cohort analysis of annual nationally representative repeated cross-sectional surveys [Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey- Higher School of Economics (RLMS-HSE)] using separate logistic models for each gender.

SETTING

Russia 1994-2016.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 195 234 respondents aged 14-85 years.

MEASUREMENTS

Age (14 groups: 14-17 to 76+ years), period (21 years: 1994-2016) and birth cohorts (17 groups: 1920-24 to 2000-02). Outcome measures were 30-day overall and beverage-specific alcohol use prevalence accounting for vodka, moonshine, beer and wine. Controls were per capita income, education, marital status, ethnicity, residence type and regional climate.

FINDINGS

Controlling for age and period effects, the most recent cohorts had lower rates of participation than older cohorts. Findings were valid for females born in 1995-2002 (P = 0.000) and males born in 1990-94 (P = 0.002) and 1995-2002 (P = 0.000). The period effects were strong in 1994-2003 due to intensive substitution of beer in place of vodka. Period effects were also important in determining a decline of prevalence in 2008-15 due to restrictive alcohol policy. Age effects showed an inverse U-shaped trend in both genders, except for moonshine and wine. Overall, drinking profiles were beverage-specific. Models indicated diverse beverage-specific effects of income, ethnicity, education, marital status and residence on the prevalence of alcohol use.

CONCLUSION

The recent downward trend in alcohol use in Russia appears to be attributable to reduced participation rates among younger cohorts born after 1990.

Declining alcohol consumption among adolescents and schools in Stockholm, 2010-2016

Aims:

The principle aim of this study was to investigate changes in alcohol consumption among adolescents in Stockholm from 2010 to 2016. A further aim was to investigate whether there are divergent or similar trends in alcohol consumption among elementary schools in Stockholm from 2010 to 2016 and, if there are diverging trends, to examine how the differences might be explained.

Methods:

Data were analysed using multilevel mixed effects linear regression, in which individual students represented one level and schools the second level.

Data:

Student-level data were derived from the Stockholm School Survey for the years 2010, 2012, 2014 and 2016 (n = 15481). School-level data (n = 132) were derived from registries of the Swedish National Agency for Education.

Results:

The results showed that there was an almost 45% decline in total alcohol consumption among ninth-grade students in Stockholm between 2010 and 2016. The decline was similar among all analysed consumption groups. Two factors were found to statistically explain some of the general decline: more restrictive parental attitudes towards alcohol and, more importantly, decreasing alcohol consumption among the students’ peers. The downward trends among schools between 2010 and 2016 were universal but not identical, but when parental attitudes towards alcohol and peers’ alcohol behaviour were controlled for, the diverging school trends in alcohol consumption were considerably more equal.

Conclusions:

School constitutes a social context for the student of which both parents and peers are important parts, and the diverging changes may be due to the norms and behaviours, influenced by parents and peers, characterising these schools.

Light and heavy drinking in jurisdictions with different alcohol policy environments

BACKGROUND

A basic, yet untested tenet underlying alcohol control policies is that they should affect both light and heavy drinking, thereby shifting the entire population in a favourable direction. The aim of this study was to test this assumption in young Swiss men.

METHODS

Cross-sectional self-reported data - from 5755 young Swiss men participating in the Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors (C-SURF), a large cohort study on young men living within 21 jurisdictions across Switzerland - were analysed via nested logistic regression. With this approach, a set of increasingly-heavy drinking patterns was broken down into a set of nested regression models, each one estimating the probability of heavier drinking, conditional on the lighter drinking pattern. Drinking patterns relating to heavy episodic drinking (HED), heavy volume drinking (HVD) on weekends, and workweek drinking, as well as alcohol use disorder (AUD) were examined. The explanatory variable was a previously-used alcohol policy environment index (APEI) reflecting the number of alcohol control policies implemented in each jurisdiction. Conventional and multilevel logistic regression models were tested, adjusted for age, education, linguistic region, urban/rural status, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, depression, sensation seeking, antisocial personality disorder, and unobserved heterogeneity between jurisdictions.

RESULTS

For HED, weekend HVD, and AUD, negative relationships with the APEI were found, such that with a higher APEI the probability of lighter drinking patterns was increased while the probability of heavier patterns was reduced, including a reduced probability of the heaviest patterns. These relationships were non-linear, however, and tapered off towards the heavy end of the drinking spectrum. No relationship was identified between the APEI and workweek drinking patterns.

CONCLUSION

Among young Swiss men, stricter alcohol policy environments were associated with a global shift towards lighter drinking, consistent with the basic tenet behind the universal prevention approach.

Investigating the growing trend of non-drinking among young people; analysis of repeated cross-sectional surveys in England 2005-2015

BACKGROUND

Non-drinking among young people has increased over the past decade in England, yet the underlying factor driving this change is unknown. Traditionally non-drinking has been found to be associated with lower socio-economic status and poorer health. This study explores among which sub-groups non-drinking has increased, and how this correlates with changes in drinking patterns, to identify whether behaviours are becoming more polarised, or reduction is widespread among young people.

METHODS

Among participants aged 16 to 24 years (N = 9699), within the annual cross-sectional nationally-representative Health Survey for England 2005-2015 datasets, the following analyses were conducted: 1) The proportion of non-drinkers among social-demographic and health sub-groups by year, and tests for linear trends among sub-groups, adjusting for age were calculated. In pooled analyses, an interaction between year and each variable was modelled in sex- and age-adjusted logistic regression models on the odds of being a non-drinker versus drinker 2) At the population level, spearman correlation co-efficients were calculated between the proportion non-drinking and the mean alcohol units consumed and binge drinking on the heaviest drinking day, by year. Ordinary least squares regression analyses were used, modelling the proportion non-drinking as the independent variable, and the mean units/binge drinking as the dependent variable.

RESULTS

Rates of non-drinking increased from 18% (95%CI 16-22%) in 2005 to 29% (25-33%) in 2015 (test for trend; p < 0.001), largely attributable to increases in lifetime abstention. Not drinking in the past week increased from 35% (32-39%) to 50% (45-55%) (p < 0.001). Significant linear increases in non-drinking were found among most sub-groups including healthier sub-groups (non-smokers, those with high physical activity and good mental health), white ethnicity, north and south regions, in full-time education, and employed. No significant increases in non-drinking were found among smokers, ethnic minorities and those with poor mental health. At the population-level, significant negative correlations were found between increases in non-drinking and declines in the mean units consumed (ρ = - 0.85, p < 0.001), and binge drinking (ρ = - 0.87, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Increases in non-drinking among young people has coincided with a delayed initiation into alcohol consumption, and are to be welcomed. Future research should explore attitudes towards drinking among young people.

Are changes in drinking related to changes in cannabis use among Swedish adolescents? A time-series analysis for the period 1989-2016

AIMS

To examine if changes in alcohol consumption are associated with changes in cannabis use among Swedish adolescents in a period of diverging trends, and to investigate if cannabis and alcohol act as complements or substitutes.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS AND MEASUREMENTS

Data comprise a nationally representative annual school survey of alcohol and drug habits among Swedish 9th-grade students (aged 15-16 years) covering years 1989-2016 (n = 149 603). Alcohol and cannabis use were measured concurrently and alcohol consumption was measured in litres of 100% alcohol per year. Frequency of cannabis use was transformed into a mean using category mid-points. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time-series analysis was used to estimate the association between cannabis and alcohol use. To elucidate changes in the association during the study period, two subperiods (2000-16 and 1989-99) were analysed.

FINDINGS

There was a positive and statistically significant association between changes in alcohol consumption and changes in frequency of cannabis use among cannabis users for the period 1989-2016. A 1-litre increase in mean alcohol consumption was associated with a 0.28 increase in frequency of cannabis use (P = 0.010). The corresponding increase for the period 1989-99 was 0.52 (P = 0.003). When restricting the analysis to 2000-16, the association was not statistically significant (P = 0.735). When analysing all adolescents we found no statistically significant association between changes in alcohol consumption and changes in frequency of cannabis use.

CONCLUSIONS

From 1989 to 2016 there appears to be a positive association between alcohol and cannabis consumption among Swedish adolescents who use cannabis. This association seems to have become weaker over time, suggesting that alcohol and cannabis are neither substitutes nor complements among Swedish adolescents and that the recent decline in youth drinking is not associated with the increase in frequency of cannabis use.

Adolescents drink less: How, who and why? A review of the recent research literature

ISSUES

Today's teenagers have been described as a sober generation and we asked: 'What is known about the recent decline in youth drinking?'

APPROACH

A literature review (2005-2017).

KEY FINDINGS

Research from wealthier parts of the world provides solid evidence of less alcohol use by youth since the millennium shift. Some studies show that this is reflected at all levels of consumption, but there are also indications that the heaviest drinkers have not reduced their drinking. The decrease is predominately seen in underage youth, and has been larger for boys than for girls in several countries. Teenagers across social strata drink less, but some disadvantaged subgroups have not followed the downward trend. Underage drinkers have apparently not become a more deviant group as the prevalence of drinking has dropped, indicating no hardening of the group. The major gap in the literature pertains to the issue of underlying driving forces. We found no evidence in support of the widespread assumption that the digital revolution has been of importance. A decline in parenting practices that are conductive to underage drinking has occurred in several countries, but studies examining whether these changes have contributed to less alcohol use by youth are almost non-existent.

IMPLICATIONS

To inform alcohol policy and prevention, it is imperative to find out why teenage drinking has decreased in a fairly consistent way across numerous countries.

CONCLUSION

Future research into the issue of falling prevalence rates of youth drinking should focus on possible explanatory factors at the population level rather than at the individual level.

Trajectories of positive alcohol expectancies and drinking: An examination of young adults in the US and Sweden

Positive alcohol expectancies and alcohol use tend to increase from adolescence to young adulthood, yet little is known about the associations between these constructs across cultures. The current study adds to the extant literature by examining the growth trajectories of positive alcohol expectancies and drinking behavior among United States (US) and Swedish participants during a critical period where significant change in these outcomes may be expected to occur. A total of 870 (US, N=362; Sweden, N=508) high school seniors completed baseline, 6-month, and 12-month assessments of alcohol expectancies and drinking (i.e., drinks per week). Changes in positive alcohol expectancies and drinking behavior were examined using a parallel process latent growth model. In both samples, higher baseline levels of positive alcohol expectancies were associated with a higher number of drinks consumed per week at baseline. In the US sample, lower baseline levels of positive alcohol expectancies were associated with a greater increase in positive alcohol expectancies at 12-month follow-up, and lower baseline levels of drinks per week were associated with a greater increase in drinks consumed per week at 12-month follow-up. In the Swedish sample, an increase in positive alcohol expectancies over time was associated with an increase in drinks consumed per week over the same period of time. Additional research is needed to examine when and for whom expectancy-based alcohol interventions are most efficacious.

Drinking trajectories of at-risk groups: Does the theory of the collectivity of drinking apply?

INTRODUCTION AND AIMS

Alcohol consumption among Swedish adolescents has halved during the last decade. We aim to: (i) investigate whether the overall decrease in drinking may conceal an underlying heterogeneity in drinking trajectories across at-risk groups that differ with respect to risk for drinking and; (ii) assess to what degree alcohol-related harm has responded to this decrease.

DESIGN AND METHODS

Data were obtained from the nationally representative annual school survey of alcohol and drug habits among Swedish ninth-grade students covering the period 2000-2012 (n ≈ 5000/year). Respondents were divided into five at-risk groups ranging from low to high based on their relative ranking on a risk scale for drinking. Alcohol consumption was measured by beverage-specific quantity and frequency items summarised into a measure of overall drinking in litres of 100% alcohol per year. Alcohol-related harm was measured by eight items asking about whether the respondent had experienced various alcohol-related negative consequences.

RESULTS

Drinking and alcohol-related harm decreased in all five at-risk groups. There was a marked relation between the overall consumption and the mean consumption in each of the five at-risk groups. Self-reported alcohol-related harm decreased during the study period to an extent that was expected from the decrease in alcohol consumption.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

Alcohol consumption among Swedish youth has declined in five groups that were delineated based on their relative ranking on a risk factor index. The findings are consistent with Skog's theory of the collectivity of drinking behaviour. [Norström T, Raninen J. Drinking trajectories of at-risk groups: Does the theory of the collectivity of drinking apply?.

Typology and Dynamics of Heavier Drinking Styles in Great Britain: 1978-2010

AIMS

To identify a typology of heavier drinking styles in Great Britain and to identify socio-demographic trends in the typology over the period 1978-2010.

METHODS

We applied multiple correspondence analysis and agglomerative hierarchical clustering to beverage-specific quantity-frequency measures of alcohol consumption in the repeated cross-sectional General Lifestyle Survey of Great Britain, 1978-2010. The cluster analysis focuses on the 60,043 adult respondents over this period reporting average drinking levels above the UK Government guidelines. We projected sex, age, income, education, socio-economic status and tobacco consumption variables onto the clusters to inspect socio-demographic trends in heavier drinking.

RESULTS

We identified four stable clusters of heavier drinking: (a) high volume beer; (b) beer and spirit combination; (c) all beverage and (d) wine and spirit only. The socio-demographic characteristics of the clusters were distinct from both each other and the general population. However, all clusters had higher median incomes and higher smoking rates than the population. Increases in the prevalence of heavier drinking were driven by a 5-fold increase in the contribution of the female-dominated, wine and spirit only cluster.

CONCLUSIONS

Recent changes in per capita alcohol consumption in Great Britain occurred within the context of a stable typology of heavier drinking styles and shifting socio-demographics. Identifying these trends is essential to better understand how drinking cultures develop over time and where potentially problematic drinking styles may emerge. Our findings suggest that careful attention to patterns and cultures of consumption is more important than relying on headline consumption data, for both understanding drinking behaviours and targeting interventions.

SHORT SUMMARY

This analysis of alcohol consumption survey data identifies four styles of heavier drinking in Great Britain, which remain unchanged over the period 1978-2010. The socio-demographic characteristics of the drinking styles are distinct from both each other and the general population, with increased participation of female and older drinkers over time.

More Drinking, More Problems-Stable Association Between Alcohol Consumption and Harm Among Swedish Youth 1995-2012

Aims

Alcohol consumption among Swedish youth increased during the 1990s. In the following decade, levels declined coinciding with a reduction in the prevalence of self-reported alcohol-related harm. We examine how the trend in self-reported alcohol-related problems among young Swedish alcohol consumers has followed the trend in alcohol consumption during 1995-2012, and test whether the strength of the association between self-reported alcohol consumption and alcohol-related problems within individuals is inversely proportional to the overall level of consumption among youth.

Methods

The study was based on a representative survey on alcohol and drug habits among ninth-year students, consisting of current alcohol consumers (n = 68 863), 1995-2012. Negative binominal regression models were used to estimate the relationship between three consumption variables (average volume of consumption, binge drinking and heavy drinking) and self-reported alcohol-related problems.

Results

The prevalence of binge drinking showed a greater association with self-reported alcohol-related problems than did overall mean consumption. No noticeable variation in the strength of the individual-level alcohol and harm relationship was found over the study period. We found no significant interaction between the individual alcohol use measures and overall mean youth consumption.

Conclusion

We found no signs of normalization; on the contrary, young alcohol consumers suffer about the same number of self-reported negative consequences from their drinking, regardless of the level of overall youth consumption. The study also suggests that binge drinking rather than overall consumption is the main factor that influences the development of self-reported problems experienced among young alcohol consumers.

Short summary

Young alcohol consumers suffer about the same number of self-reported negative consequences from their drinking, regardless of the level of overall mean consumption in the youth population. Binge drinking consumption appears to be the main factor influencing the development of self-reported alcohol-related problems among young alcohol consumers.

What happens to drinking when alcohol policy changes? A review of five natural experiments for alcohol taxes, prices, and availability

Natural experiments are an important alternative to observational and econometric studies. This paper provides a review of results from empirical studies of alcohol policy interventions in five countries: Denmark, Finland, Hong Kong, Sweden, and Switzerland. Major policy changes were removal of quotas on travelers' tax-free imports and reductions in alcohol taxes. A total of 29 primary articles are reviewed, which contain 35 sets of results for alcohol consumption by various subpopulations and time periods. For each country, the review summarizes and examines: (1) history of tax/quota policy interventions and price changes; (2) graphical trends for alcohol consumption and liver disease mortality; and (3) empirical results for policy effects on alcohol consumption and drinking patterns. We also compare cross-country results for three select outcomes-binge drinking, alcohol consumption by youth and young adults, and heavy consumption by older adults. Overall, we find a lack of consistent results for consumption both within- and across-countries, with a general finding that alcohol tax interventions had selective, rather than broad, impacts on subpopulations and drinking patterns. Policy implications of these findings are discussed.

Collectivity of drinking behavior among adolescents: An analysis of the Norwegian ESPAD data 1995-2011

Aims

The aim of the current study was to test empirically two predictions from Skog's theory of collectivity of drinking behavior, using time series data from Norwegian adolescents. The two specific predictions were: 1) A change in mean alcohol consumption is positively associated with a change in the proportion of heavy drinkers, and 2) A change in mean alcohol consumption is positively associated with a change at all consumption levels.

Data & Methods

The present analyses are based on ESPAD data collected from Norwegian adolescents (15-16 years) in 1995, 1999, 2003, 2007 and 2011. The relationship between mean consumption and the proportion of heavy drinkers was analyzed by regressing the proportions of heavy drinkers at each time point on the consumption means at each time point. In order to assess whether adolescents at all consumption levels, from light to heavy drinkers, changed collectively as mean consumption changed, we regressed log-transformed consumption means on the log-transformed percentile values (P25, P50, P75, P90 and P95). The analysis was restricted to adolescents who had consumed alcohol in the last 30 days (total n = 7554).

Results

The results showed a strong relationship between mean alcohol consumption and the proportion of heavy drinkers. An increase in mean consumption was also associated with an increase at all consumption levels, from light to heavy drinkers.

Conclusion

The results of the current study are in line with the theory of collectivity of drinking behavior. The findings of this study suggest that by reducing the total consumption of alcohol among adolescents, consumption and risk of harm may be reduced in all consumer groups.

Changing arenas of underage adolescent binge drinking in Swedish small towns

Aim

The study explores arenas of adolescent binge drinking in small Swedish towns and the meanings these have for young persons. The focus is thus on space and place, and on the geography of underage drinking.

Design

An ethnographic approach was used, including direct observations, document studies and contacts with youth workers on local and national levels, and interviews with 28 underage binge-drinking adolescents chosen as informants.

Findings

Adolescent binge drinkers seem to have moved away from street and other outdoor drinking arenas to home environments, where they feel they have more control over their party location and participants.

Conclusions

One consequence of outdoor drinking moving indoors is that professional youth workers and police cannot enter party arenas and the only adults who can do so are the parents. This has implications for preventive alcohol strategies and outreach social work. Measures should be directed to parents to make them fully aware of the importance of the party location in their homes.

Effects on alcohol use of a Swedish school-based prevention program for early adolescents: a longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

The aim of the study was to address the lack of evaluations of school-based substance use prevention programs and to conduct a quasi-experimental evaluation of the alcohol use part of the Triad intervention.

METHODS

Eleven Swedish intervention schools (285 pupils) and three control schools (159 pupils) participated in the evaluation. Baseline measurements were conducted in 2011 before the alcohol part in the prevention program was implemented in the intervention schools (school year 6, ages 12-13). We estimated an Intention-To-Treat (ITT) Difference-in-Difference (DD) model to analyze the effectiveness of the intervention on subsequent alcohol use measured in grades 7, 8 and 9.

RESULTS

The main results show no effect on the likelihood of drinking alcohol or drinking to intoxication.

CONCLUSIONS

The lack of positive effects highlights the need for policy-makers and public health officials need to carefully consider and evaluate prevention programs in order to ensure that they are worthwhile from school, health, and societal perspectives.

Does the familial transmission of drinking patterns persist into young adulthood? A 10-year follow up

BACKGROUND

Parental drinking has been shown to be associated with offspring drinking. However, the relationship appears to be more complex than often assumed and few studies have tracked it over longer time periods.

AIMS

To explore the long-term (10-year) transmission of familial drinking during adolescence to offspring drinking patterns in young adulthood.

DESIGN

Swedish longitudinal study, assessing the relationship between familial drinking in 2000 and offspring drinking in 2010 using simultaneous quantile regression analysis (n=744).

DATA

Data on familial drinking was gathered from the Swedish level-of-living surveys (LNU) and from partner LNU in 2000 while data on offspring drinking in young adulthood was gathered from LNU 2010. Drinking among offspring, parents and potential stepparents was measured through identical quantity-frequency indices referring to the past 12 months in 2010 and 2000 respectively.

RESULTS

Young adults whose families were abstainers in 2000 drank substantially less across quintiles in 2010 than offspring of non-abstaining families. The difference, however, was not statistically significant between quintiles of the conditional distribution. Actual drinking levels in drinking families were not at all or weakly associated with drinking in offspring. Supplementary analyses confirmed these patterns.

CONCLUSION

The association between familial drinking and offspring drinking in young adulthood exhibits clear non-linear trends. Changes in the lower part of the familial drinking distribution are strongly related to drinking in young adults, but the actual levels of drinking in drinking families appear less important in shaping the drinking patterns of the offspring in young adulthood.

Trend in alcohol use in Australia over 13 years: has there been a trend reversal?

BACKGROUND

Skog's collectivity theory of alcohol consumption predicted that changes in alcohol consumption would synchronize across all types of drinkers in a population. The aim of this paper is examine this theory in the Australian context. We examined whether there was a collective change in alcohol use in Australia from 2001 to 2013, estimated alcohol consumption in non-high risk and high risk drinkers, and examined the trends in alcohol treatment episodes.

METHODS

Data from the 2001-2013 National Drug Strategy Household Surveys (N = 127,916) was used to estimate the prevalence and alcohol consumption of abstainers, high risk drinkers and frequent heavy episodic drinkers. Closed treatment episodes recorded in the Alcohol and Other Drug Treatment Services National Minimum Dataset (N = 608,367) from 2001 to 2013 were used to examine the trends of closed alcohol treatment episodes.

RESULTS

The prevalence of non-drinkers (abstainers) decreased to the lowest level in 2004 (15.3 %) and rebounded steadily thereafter (20.4 % in 2013; p < .001). Correspondingly, the per capita consumption of high risk drinkers (2 standard drinks or more on average per day) increased from 20.7 L in 2001 to peak in 2010 (21.5 L; p = .020). Non-high risk drinkers' consumption peaked in 2004 (2.9 L) and decreased to 2.8 L in 2013 (p < .05). There were decreases in alcohol treatment episodes across nearly all birth cohorts in recent years.

CONCLUSION

These findings are partially consistent with and support Skog's collectivity theory. There has been a turnaround in alcohol consumption after a decade-long uptrend, as evident in the collective decreases in alcohol consumption among nearly all types of drinkers. There was also a turnaround in rate of treatment seeking, which peaked at 2007 and then decreased steadily. The timing of this turnaround differs with level of drinking, with non-high risk drinkers reaching its peak consumption in 2004 and high risk drinkers reaching its peak consumption in 2010.

Converging Patterns of Alcohol Use and Related Outcomes Among Females and Males in the United States, 2002 to 2012

BACKGROUND

Females in the United States consume less alcohol and cause and experience fewer alcohol-related harms than males. However, recent research suggests such gaps might be narrowing. The purpose of this study was to explore changes in alcohol use and associated outcomes among females and males in the United States between 2002 and 2012.

METHODS

Data from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health were used to assess the prevalence and trends for females and males aged 12+ in lifetime abstinence, age of onset, current drinking, binge drinking, drinking and driving, reaching DSM-IV criteria for an alcohol use disorder, combining alcohol with other drugs such as marijuana, and other variables. Of particular interest was whether differences between females and males narrowed during the decade under study.

RESULTS

Differences in the drinking patterns of females and males aged 12+ narrowed between 2002 and 2012 for current drinking, number of drinking days per month, past year DSM-IV alcohol abuse, and past-year driving under the influence of alcohol. In addition, convergence was noted in 1 or more age subgroups for the prevalence of binge drinking and DSM-IV alcohol dependence and mean age at drinking onset. Divergence in drinking habits did not occur for any measure in any age subgroups with the exception of a greater increase in the prevalence of combining alcohol with marijuana among young adult male drinkers than female drinkers aged 18 to 25.

CONCLUSIONS

Between 2002 and 2012, differences in alcohol consumption and related outcomes narrowed for females and males. Reasons for converging patterns of alcohol use are unclear and do not appear to be easily explainable by recent trends in employment status, pregnancy status, or marital status. More research is needed to identify the psychosocial and environmental contributors to these changes and to assess implications for prevention and treatment efforts.

Motivational interviewing does not affect risk drinking among young women: A randomised, controlled intervention study in Swedish youth health centres

AIM

The aim of this study was to analyse risk and binge drinking at 12-month follow-up in young women with risk drinking who received motivational interviewing compared with controls.

METHODS

Young women attending Swedish youth health centres were randomised into intervention or control groups. The intervention group members were asked about their alcohol consumption by a midwife/social worker using the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test Consumption. A score of ⩾5 was used as the cut-off value for risk drinking. Participants with risk drinking in the intervention group received motivational interviewing within the same visit. Participants in the control group had a regular visit with a midwife/social worker and answered the same questions about alcohol consumption in a questionnaire after their visit. A questionnaire with the same questions was administered to participants 12 months after baseline.

RESULTS

Of 1445 eligible young women, 1051 (73%) consented to randomisation and were enrolled in the study. The follow-up rate was 54%. There was a significant decrease in risk- and binge drinking, from baseline to follow-up, in both the intervention and the control groups. Generalised estimating equation analyses demonstrated no significant effect between groups. Of participants who did not have risk drinking at baseline, about 20% in both groups had developed high-risk drinking by the 12-month follow-up. CONCLUSIONS NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN RISK DRINKING BETWEEN YOUNG WOMEN WHO RECEIVED MOTIVATIONAL INTERVIEWING AND CONTROLS WERE FOUND THERE WAS A LARGE INTRA-INDIVIDUAL MOBILITY IN YOUNG WOMEN'S RISK DRINKING BEHAVIOUR THIS HIGHLIGHTS THE IMPORTANCE OF FINDING RELIABLE SCREENING TOOLS THAT CAN CAPTURE THE MOBILITY IN DRINKING BEHAVIOUR IN YOUTH MORE RESEARCH IS NEEDED BEFORE RECOMMENDATIONS CAN BE MADE.

Alcohol consumption and fatal injuries in Australia before and after major traffic safety initiatives: a time series analysis

BACKGROUND

The associations between population-level alcohol consumption and fatal injuries have been examined in a number of previous studies, but few have considered the external impacts of major policy interventions. This study aims to quantify the associations between per capita alcohol consumption and traffic and nontraffic injury mortality rates in Australia before and after major traffic safety initiatives (the introduction of compulsory seat belt legislation [CSBL] and random breath testing [RBT] in 1970s).

METHODS

Using data from 1924 to 2006, gender- and age-specific traffic and nontraffic mortality rates (15 years and above) were analyzed in relation to per capita alcohol consumption using time series analysis. The external effects of policy interventions were measured by inserting a dummy variable in the time series models.

RESULTS

Statistically significant associations between per capita alcohol consumption and both types of fatal injuries were found for both males and females. The results suggest that an increase in per capita alcohol consumption of 1 l was accompanied by an increase in traffic mortality of 3.4 among males and 0.5 among females per 100,000 inhabitants and an increase in nontraffic mortality of 3.0 among males and 0.9 among females. The associations between alcohol consumption and fatal injury rates varied across age groups. The introduction of CSBL and RBT was associated with significant reductions in traffic crash mortality in Australia, particularly for males and young people.

CONCLUSIONS

The magnitude and distribution of the preventive effects from the reduction in population drinking on fatal injuries vary across different gender and age groups, with the strongest preventive impacts on fatal injuries among people aged 15 to 29 and 70 years and above. The mechanisms behind these effects are unclear from this study, but are likely to be due to the strong association between per capita consumption and heavy drinking.

What Role Do Changes in the Demographic Composition Play in the Declining Trends in Alcohol Consumption and the Increase of Non-drinkers Among Swedish Youth? A Time-series Analysis of Trends in Non-drinking and Region of Origin 1971-2012

Aim

Non-drinkers among youth in Sweden have increased markedly during the last 15 years. The aim of this study is to investigate the temporal association between region of origin among Swedish youth and rates of non-drinking.

Data and method

Data on non-drinkers were obtained from The Swedish Council on Information and Other drugs (CAN) yearly school surveys among Swedish ninth-grade students over the period 1971–2013. Annual data of region of origin for 1968–2012 has been compiled from Statistics Sweden (SCB) and consists of all 15-year-olds in Sweden and their region of birth; Sweden, The Nordic Countries, Europe, The Middle East and the rest of the world. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modelling was applied in order to estimate these associations.

Results

Descriptive results revealed a change in the demography of Swedish 15- to 16-year-olds. In the early 1990s 1% of Swedish 15- to 16–year-olds were born in a Middle East country, this proportion increased to 6% in 2012. Furthermore, those born in the rest of the world (non-European or non-Nordic countries) increased from 1% to almost 4%. Similarly, the trend of non-drinkers increased from about 20% to more than 40% among Swedish 15- to 16-year-olds during the same period. However, a more thorough analysis using ARIMA modelling revealed no significant association between rates of region of origin and non-drinking.

Conclusion

The marked increase in non-drinkers during the last 15 years is not associated to changes in the demographic composition, in terms of region of origin, among Swedish youth.

Does a Change Over All Equal a Change in All? Testing for Polarized Alcohol Use Within and Across Socio-Economic Groups in Germany

AIMS

This study aimed at testing whether drinking volume and episodic heavy drinking (EHD) frequency in Germany are polarizing between consumption levels over time. Polarization is defined as a reduction in alcohol use among the majority of the population, while a subpopulation with a high intake level maintains or increases its drinking or its EHD frequency. The polarization hypothesis was tested across and within socio-economic subgroups.

METHOD

Analyses were based on seven cross-sectional waves of the Epidemiological Survey of Substance Abuse (ESA) conducted between 1995 and 2012 (n = 7833-9084). Overall polarization was estimated based on regression models with time by consumption level interactions; the three-way interaction with socio-economic status (SES) was consecutively introduced to test the stability of effects over socio-economic strata. Interactions were interpreted by graphical inspection.

RESULTS

For both alcohol use indicators, declines over time were largest in the highest consumption level. This was found within all SES groups, but was most pronounced at low and least pronounced at medium SES.

CONCLUSION

The results indicate no polarization but convergence between consumption levels. Socio-economic status groups differ in the magnitude of convergence which was lowest in medium SES. The overall decline was strongest for the highest consumption level of low SES.

Is there a link between per capita alcohol consumption and youth drinking? A time-series analysis for Sweden in 1972-2012

AIMS

To estimate the relationship between per capita alcohol consumption and youth drinking in Sweden during the last 40 years and to estimate the relationship between female and male youth drinking during the 40-year study period.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS AND MEASUREMENTS

Per capita alcohol consumption was proxied by official sales data, supplemented by data on unrecorded consumption. Youth consumption was measured by a question on heavy episodic drinking (HED) included in an annual school survey of alcohol and drug habits among Swedish 9th -grade students (15-16 years of age). The annual samples comprise approximately 5000 individuals (with roughly equal numbers of boys and girls) with response rates in the range 80-93%. The study spans the period 1972-2012. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time-series analysis was used to estimate the relation between per-capita alcohol consumption and youth drinking. Ocular inspection of the time-series data suggested a stronger synchronization between the two series in the early period, before the mid-1990s, than in the later period, indicating a structural shift in the relation at issue. We therefore conducted period specific time-series analyses with 1995 as the year of division.

RESULTS

There was a statistically significant relation between per capita alcohol consumption and HED among youth for 1972-94. A 1% increase in per capita alcohol consumption was associated with an increase in HED of 1.52% (P = 0.008). The estimate for 1995-2012 (0.12) was well below statistical significance (P = 0.580). The estimated elasticity of the association between boys' and girls' HED during 1972-94 was close to unity (0.98, P < 0.001), suggesting proportional changes in boys' and girls' drinking. When controlling for per capita consumption, the association was halved (to 0.55) but still significant in table 3 (P = 0.045).

CONCLUSIONS

Adult and youth drinking in Sweden were synchronized closely during the two last decades of the 20th century, but youth drinking developed an independent trajectory shortly before 2000.