A framework for evaluating the public health impact of e-cigarettes and other vaporized nicotine products

Comparison of smoking prevalence in Canada before and after nicotine vaping product access using the SimSmoke model

OBJECTIVES

The public health impact of nicotine vaping products (NVPs) is subject to complex transitions between NVP and cigarette use. To circumvent the data limitations and parameter instability challenges in modeling transitions, we indirectly estimate NVPs' impact on smoking prevalence and resulting smoking-attributable deaths using the SimSmoke simulation model.

METHODS

Canada SimSmoke uses age- and sex-specific data on Canadian population, smoking prevalence and tobacco control policies. The model incorporates the impact of cigarette-oriented policies on smoking prevalence but not the explicit contribution of NVPs. The model was calibrated from 1999 to 2012, thereby projecting smoking prevalence before NVPs were widely used in Canada. The NVP impact on smoking prevalence is inferred by comparing projected 2012-2020 smoking trends absent NVPs to corresponding trends from two Canadian national surveys. We further distinguish impacts before and after NVPs became regulated in 2018 and more available.

RESULTS

Comparing 2012-2020 survey data of post-NVP to SimSmoke projected smoking prevalence trends, one survey indicated an NVP-related relative reduction of 15% (15%) for males (females) age 15+, but 32% (52%) for those ages 15-24. The other survey indicated a 14% (19%) NVP-related smoking reduction for ages 18+, but 42% (53%) for persons ages 18-24. Much of the gain occurred since Canada relaxed NVP restrictions. NVP-related 2012-2020 smoking reductions yielded 100,000 smoking-attributable deaths averted from 2012 to 2060.

CONCLUSION

Smoking prevalence in Canada, especially among younger adults, declined more rapidly once NVPs became readily available. The emergence of NVPs into the Canadian marketplace has not slowed the decline in smoking.

Do Tobacco Companies Have an Incentive to Promote "Harm Reduction" Products?: The Role of Competition

INTRODUCTION

Some cigarette companies have started to talk about replacing cigarettes with less harmful alternatives, which might include nicotine vaping products (NVPs), heated tobacco products (HTPs), and oral nicotine delivery products. We consider market competition as a primary driver of whether cigarette companies follow through on their stated intentions.

AIMS AND METHODS

We focus on the behavior of cigarette companies in the United States. We compare competition in the pre- and post-2012 time periods, analyze the impact of the growth in NVPs on smoking prevalence and cigarette company profits, and examine the potential future role of competition.

RESULTS

Since 2006, consumers have broadened their use of non-combustible nicotine delivery products (NCNDPs) to include, inter alia, NVPs, HTPs, and oral nicotine pouches. U.S. cigarette companies have acquired major stakes in each of these product categories which corresponds to a period of rapidly declining adult smoking prevalence, especially among younger adults (ages 18-24 years). The shifting dynamics of the nicotine product marketplace are also reflected in cigarette company stock prices. While cigarette companies are likely to promote HTPs and nicotine delivery products over NVPs, their incentives will be directly related to competition from independent firms, which in turn will depend on government regulation.

CONCLUSIONS

Although cigarette companies will back alternatives to combusted tobacco when threatened by competition, the prospects for their lasting conversion to NCNDPs will depend on the extent of such competition, which will be influenced by government regulation of tobacco products.

IMPLICATIONS

Regulations that limit competition from independent firms while also protecting cigarette company profits risk slowing or even reversing recent declines in smoking, especially among youth and young adults. Regulations that reduce the appeal and addictiveness of combusted tobacco products, such as higher cigarette taxes or a reduced nicotine standard, will encourage smokers to quit and/or switch to less harmful non-combusted forms of tobacco. The regulation of non-combustible nicotine delivery products and cigarettes should be proportionate to their relative risks, so that smokers have incentives to switch from combustibles to safer alternatives, and cigarette companies have incentives to promote safer products.

Potential Implications for Tobacco Industry Transformation of the Acquisition of Swedish Match by Philip Morris International

Philip Morris International's recent purchase of Swedish Match may prove to be a vital tobacco industry development. We focus on PMIs potential progress in moving from primarily selling cigarettes toward primarily selling noncombustible nicotine delivery products (NCNDPs). We also consider the potential contribution of the acquisition to industry transformation whereby other cigarette firms may potentially move toward primarily selling NCNDPs. We examine the potential impact on noncombustible nicotine delivery product use, including nicotine pouches (a major Swedish Match product), e-cigarettes, heated tobacco products, and, most importantly, on sales of the industry's staple, combustible cigarettes. We focus on the United States as a special case, where PMI is limited from entering the cigarette market. Implications: Philip Morris International's purchase of Swedish Match and policies regarding nicotine pouches (NPs) have been overlooked in the tobacco control literature. The acquisition indicates the importance of the NP market to the largest nonstate-owned tobacco company. The acquisition has the potential through pricing and marketing tactics to either encourage or discourage the use of NPs, e-cigarettes, heated tobacco products, and most importantly cigarettes. Due to its inability to sell cigarettes in the United States, PMI will have incentives to use its alternative nicotine delivery products, including its newly acquired NPs, to reduce the sale of cigarettes by other companies. However, the potential effects in other countries, where PMI does sell cigarettes, are less clear. Monitoring and analyzing tobacco company acquisitions is essential to studying future transitions in using different kinds of tobacco products, especially from cigarettes to lower-risk alternative nicotine delivery products.

The smoking and vaping model, A user-friendly model for examining the country-specific impact of nicotine VAPING product use: application to Germany

BACKGROUND

Simulation models play an increasingly important role in tobacco control. Models examining the impact of nicotine vaping products (NVPs) and smoking tend to be highly specialized and inaccessible. We present the Smoking and Vaping Model (SAVM),a user-friendly cohort-based simulation model, adaptable to any country, that projects the public health impact of smokers switching to NVPs.

METHODS

SAVM compares two scenarios. The No-NVP scenario projects smoking rates in the absence of NVPs using population projections, deaths rates, life expectancy, and smoking prevalence. The NVP scenario models vaping prevalence and its impact on smoking once NVPs became popular. NVP use impact is estimated as the difference in smoking- and vaping-attributable deaths (SVADs) and life-years lost (LYLs) between the No-NVP and NVP scenarios. We illustrate SAVM's adaptation to the German adult ages 18+ population, the Germany-SAVM by adjusting the model using population, mortality, smoking and NVP use data.

RESULTS

Assuming that the excess NVP mortality risk is 5% that of smoking, Germany-SAVM projected 4.7 million LYLs and almost 300,000 SVADs averted associated with NVP use from 2012 to 2060. Increasing the excess NVP mortality risk to 40% with other rates constant resulted in averted 2.8 million LYLs and 200,000 SVADs during the same period.

CONCLUSIONS

SAVM enables non-modelers, policymakers, and other stakeholders to analyze the potential population health effects of NVP use and public health interventions.

Changing patterns of cigarette and ENDS transitions in the USA: a multistate transition analysis of adults in the PATH Study in 2017-2019 vs 2019-2021

Introduction

The use of cigarettes and electronic nicotine delivery system (ENDS) has likely changed since 2019 with the rise of pods and disposables, the outbreak of lung injuries related to vaping THC, flavor bans, and the COVID pandemic. We analyzed patterns of initiation, cessation, and transitions between cigarettes, ENDS, and dual use before and after 2019.

Methods

Using the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study, we applied a multistate transition model to 28,061 adults in Waves 4-5 (2017-19) and 24,751 adults in Waves 5-6 (2019-21), estimating transition rates for initiation, cessation, and switching products for each period overall and by age group.

Results

Cigarette initiation among adults who never used either product decreased from 2017-19 to 2019-21, but ENDS initiation did not significantly change. Persistence of ENDS-only use remained high, with 75-80% still using ENDS only after 1 year. Cigarette-only use transitions remained similar, with about 88% remaining, 7% transitioning to non-current use, and 5% transitioning to dual or ENDS-only use. In contrast, dual use to ENDS-only transitions increased from 9.5% (95%CI: 7.3-11.7%) to 20.1% (95%CI: 17.5-22.7%) per year from 2017-19 to 2019-21, decreasing the persistence of dual use. The dual use to cigarette-only transition remained at about 25%. These changes were qualitatively similar across adult age groups, though adults ages 18-24 years exhibited the highest probability of switching from cigarette-only use to dual use and from dual use to ENDS-only use.

Conclusions

Persistence of ENDS use among adults remained high in 2019-21, but a larger fraction of dual users transitioned to ENDS-only use compared to 2017-19. Because the fraction of cigarette-only users switching to dual use remained low, the public health implications of the increased dual use to ENDS-only transition are minimal.

Behavioral intentions assessment of a disposable e-cigarette among adult current, former, and non-smokers in the United States

Modeling the public health effects of e-cigarettes requires estimates of the likelihood that different individuals and population subgroups will start using e-cigarettes and subsequently transition to and from combustible cigarette use. To begin to generate input values for modeling efforts, this study assessed adults' behavioral intentions in relation to a disposable e-cigarette, "BIDI® Stick." An online questionnaire assessed intentions to try and use a BIDI® Stick regularly in 11 flavor variants among United States (U.S.) nationally representative samples of adult (21+ years) non-smokers (n = 2284), current smokers (n = 2391), former smokers (n = 2241), and young adult (21-24 years) non-smokers (n = 1140) of combustible cigarettes following exposure to product information and images. Current smokers rated their intentions to use a BIDI® Stick to partially or completely replace cigarettes. Positive intention to try a BIDI® Stick at least once was, for each flavor variant, highest among current smokers (22.4%-28.1%), lower among former smokers (6.0%-9.7%) and non-smokers (3.4%-5.2%), and lowest among never-smokers (1.0%-2.4%). Among current smokers, former smokers, and non-smokers, trial and regular use intentions were lowest among e-cigarette non-users and e-cigarette never-users. Approximately 23.6% of current smokers reported an intention to use a BIDI® Stick in at least one flavor to completely switch from cigarettes and/or to reduce cigarette consumption. Low trial and regular use intentions suggest that U.S. adults who do not currently smoke cigarettes and/or use e-cigarettes are unlikely to initiate use of the BIDI® Stick e-cigarette. Trial and regular use intentions are highest among adults who currently smoke cigarettes and/or use e-cigarettes. A moderate proportion of current smokers may try using a BIDI® Stick e-cigarette as a partial or complete replacement for combustible cigarettes.

How cigarette excise tax pass-through to prices responds to the uptake and evolution of e-cigarettes (ECs)

BACKGROUND

How excise taxes are passed through to prices determines whether tax policies will be effective in changing smoking behaviours. Though previous literature has documented that cigarette taxes are overly shifted to prices, there is limited evidence on how cigarette tax pass-through to prices is affected by the uptake and evolution of e-cigarettes (ECs) in the US market.

OBJECTIVE

This study investigates how cigarette excise tax pass-through rate varied by price levels (the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile prices) and the uptake and evolution of ECs.

METHODS

Tax pass-through rates were assessed using ordinary least squares regressions while controlling for state, year and month fixed effects. Different trends were then tested for the pre-EC uptake era (2006-2011), EC uptake era (2012-2016) and the evolution of nicotine salt-based ECs era (2017 and later).

FINDINGS

Cigarette excise taxes were fully shifted to the 25th and 50th percentile prices and overly shifted to the 75th percentile prices at a 1:1.1 rate. While cigarette excise taxes had a continuous impact on raising prices, the tax pass-through rates were lower for lower priced cigarettes, and states imposed lower taxes.

CONCLUSIONS

Continuing to raise cigarette taxes may be needed to create financial incentives to encourage people who smoke to switch to ECs. In addition, continuing to raise cigarette taxes and additional pricing policies such as price promotion restrictions are needed to increase retail prices and reduce price minimisation opportunities.

How has Expenditure on Nicotine Products Changed in a Fast-Evolving Marketplace? A Representative Population Survey in England, 2018-2022

INTRODUCTION

In the last 5 years, there has been a dramatic shift in the types of nicotine products being purchased. This study aimed to estimate how much users spend on types of cigarettes and alternative nicotine products (e-cigarettes, nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), heated tobacco, and nicotine pouches) and describe changes between 2018 and 2022.

AIMS AND METHODS

Monthly representative cross-sectional survey in England. 10 323 adults who smoked cigarettes or used alternative nicotine reported their average weekly expenditure on these products, adjusted for inflation.

RESULTS

Smokers spent £20.49 [95% CI = 20.09-20.91] on cigarettes each week (£27.66 [26.84-28.50] and £15.96 [15.49-16.28] among those who mainly smoked manufactured and hand-rolled cigarettes, respectively), e-cigarette users spent £6.30 [5.99-6.55] (£8.41 [7.17-9.78], £6.42 [5.58-7.39], and £5.93 [5.64-6.30] among those who mainly used disposable, pod, and refillable devices, respectively), NRT users £6.11 [5.53-6.69], and heated tobacco users £13.87 [9.58-20.09]. Expenditure on cigarettes grew by 10% from September 2018 to July 2020, then fell by 10% from July 2020 to June 2022. These changes coincided with a 13% reduction in cigarette consumption and a 14% increase in the proportion mainly smoking hand-rolled cigarettes. Expenditure on e-cigarettes was stable between 2018 and late 2020, then rose by 31% up to mid-2022. Expenditure on NRT increased slowly in 2018-2020 (+4%) and more quickly thereafter (+20%).

CONCLUSIONS

Inflation-adjusted expenditure on cigarettes has fallen since 2020, such that the average smoker in England currently spends the same on cigarettes each week as in 2018. This has been achieved by smoking fewer cigarettes and switching to cheaper hand-rolled cigarettes. Expenditure on alternative nicotine has increased above inflation; users spent around a third more on these products in 2022 than between 2018-2020.

IMPLICATIONS

People in England continue to spend substantially more on smoking cigarettes than using alternative nicotine products. The average smoker in England spends around £13 a week (~£670 a year) more than people using only e-cigarettes or NRT. The average expenditure on manufactured cigarettes is double that of hand-rolled cigarettes.

Tobacco use characteristics, treatment preferences, and motivation to quit among adults accessing a day shelter in Oklahoma City

Background

Smoking rates are exceptionally high among adults experiencing homelessness (AEH). Research is needed to inform treatment approaches in this population.

Methods

Participants (n=404) were adults who accessed an urban day shelter and reported current smoking. Participants completed surveys regarding their sociodemographic characteristics, tobacco and substance use, mental health, motivation to quit smoking (MTQS), and smoking cessation treatment preferences. Participant characteristics were described and compared by MTQS.

Results

Participants who reported current smoking (N=404) were primarily male (74.8%); White (41.4%), Black (27.8%), or American Indian/Alaska Native (14.1%) race; and 10.7% Hispanic. Participants reported a mean age of 45.6 (SD=11.2) years, and they smoked an average of 12.6 (SD=9.4) cigarettes per day. Most participants reported moderate or high MTQS (57%) and were interested in receiving free cessation treatment (51%). Participants most frequently selected the following options as among the top 3 treatments that offered the best chance of quitting: Nicotine replacement therapy (25%), money/gift cards for quitting (17%), prescription medications (17%), and switching to e-cigarettes (16%). Craving (55%), stress/mood (40%), habit (39%), and being around other smokers (36%) were frequently identified as the most challenging aspects of quitting. Low MTQS was associated with White race, lack of religious participation, lack of health insurance, lower income, greater cigarettes smoked per day, and higher expired carbon monoxide. Higher MTQS was associated with sleeping unsheltered, cell phone ownership, higher health literacy, more years of smoking, and interest in free treatment.

Discussion

Multi-level, multi-component interventions are needed to address tobacco disparities among AEH.

The actual and anticipated effects of restrictions on flavoured electronic nicotine delivery systems: a scoping review

Objective

To synthesize the outcomes of policy evaluations of flavoured electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) restrictions.

Data sources

PubMed, Scopus, Embase and Web of Science before May 3, 2022.

Study selection

Studies that report sales, behaviour, or compliance outcomes related to implemented or hypothetical ENDS flavour restrictions.

Data extraction

Restriction details, whether implemented or hypothetical, whether additional products were restricted, jurisdictional level, study locations, and outcomes classified by sales, behaviour, and compliance.

Data synthesis

We included 30 studies. Of those, 26 were conducted exclusively in the US, two in India, and two surveyed respondents in multiple countries, including the US. Twenty-one evaluated implemented restrictions, while nine considered hypothetical restrictions. Five studies evaluated product sales, 17 evaluated behaviour, and 10 evaluated compliance, with two studies reporting multiple outcomes. Two studies reported an increase and one a reduction in cigarette sales following restrictions, while three reported reductions in ENDS sales. Behavioural studies presented a mixed view of the impacts of regulations on ENDS and cigarette use. However, the use of disparate outcomes limits the comparability of studies. Studies of hypothetical restrictions suggest decreased ENDS use, increased cigarette use, and increased use of illicit markets. Studies of compliance with flavoured product restrictions that included ENDS found that 6–39% of stores sold restricted flavoured products post-restrictions. Online stores remain a potential source of restricted products.

Conclusion

Our findings highlight the need for additional research on the impacts of ENDS restrictions. Research should further evaluate the impact of restrictions on youth and adult use of nicotine and tobacco products in addition to the effects of restrictions in countries beyond the US to enable a robust consideration of the harm-benefit trade-off of restrictions.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-14440-x.

A Decision-Theoretic Public Health Framework for Heated Tobacco and Nicotine Vaping Products

Markets for nicotine vaping products (NVPs) and heated tobacco products (HTPs) have grown as these products became positioned as harm-reduction alternatives to combusted tobacco products. Herein, we present a public health decision-theoretic framework incorporating different patterns of HTP, NVP, and cigarette use to examine their impacts on population health. Our framework demonstrates that, for individuals who would have otherwise smoked, HTP use may provide public health benefits by enabling cessation or by discouraging smoking initiation and relapse. However, the benefits are reduced if more harmful HTP use replaces less harmful NVP use. HTP use may also negatively impact public health by encouraging smoking by otherwise non-smokers or by encouraging initiation or relapse into smoking. These patterns are directly influenced by industry behavior as well as public policy towards HTPs, NVPs, and cigarettes. While substantial research has been devoted to NVPs, much less is known about HTPs. Better information is needed to more precisely define the health risks of HTPs compared to cigarettes and NVPs, the relative appeal of HTPs to consumers, and the likelihood of later transitioning to smoking or quitting all products. While our analysis provides a framework for gaining that information, it also illustrates the complexities in distinguishing key factors.

School-based preventive interventions targeting e-cigarette use among adolescents: a systematic review protocol

INTRODUCTION

Electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) use has drastically increased in recent years, particularly among adolescents. This poses several acute and chronic harms to young people, including poisonings, burns, serious lung injury and-where nicotine e-liquid is used-the potential to impact healthy brain development and precipitate future nicotine addiction. School-based prevention programmes have the potential to address this growing public health concern by reaching large numbers of young people during a critical period for intervention; however, the efficacy of such interventions has not been systematically explored. This systematic review aims to determine the existence and efficacy of school-based preventive interventions targeting e-cigarette use.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A systematic search of MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, Scopus, CINAHL, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and international clinical trials registries will be conducted from 2000 to April 2022 to identify eligible studies (randomised controlled trials, cluster randomised controlled trials and quasiexperimental studies) evaluating school-based interventions to prevent e-cigarette use among adolescents. Two reviewers will independently screen title, abstract and full text of all studies for eligibility. Both reviewers will independently extract the data and assess the risk of bias. Any discrepancies will be resolved by a third reviewer. Results will be summarised in a narrative synthesis and data will be meta-analysed if appropriate. Heterogeneity in findings will be assessed narratively, and using the I² statistic (where meta-analysis is feasible), meta-regression will be used to explore potential factors associated with programme efficacy, where data permit.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This research is conducted on published work and does not require ethics approval. The findings will be published in a peer-reviewed journal and used to guide the development of new school-based e-cigarette preventive interventions.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42022323352.

The Australia Smoking and Vaping Model: The Potential Impact of Increasing Access to Nicotine Vaping Products

BACKGROUND

We model the potential impact of relaxing current nicotine vaping product (NVP) restrictions on public health in Australia.

AIMS AND METHODS

A Restricted NVP Scenario was first developed to project current smoking and vaping rates, where a U.S. smoking model was calibrated to recent Australian trends. To model less restrictive NVP policies, a Permissive NVP Scenario applied rates of switching from smoking to vaping, initiation into NVP and cigarette use, and cessation from smoking and vaping based on U.S. trends. The model measures vaping risk relative to the excess mortality rate of smoking. The public health impacts are measured as the difference between smoking- and vaping-attributable deaths (SVADs) and life years lost (LYLs) in the Restricted and Permissive NVP Scenarios. Sensitivity analysis is conducted regarding the NVP excess risk and other factors.

RESULTS

Assuming an NVP excess risk of 5% that of smoking, 104.2 thousand SVADs (7.7% reduction) and 2.05 million LYLs (17.3% reduction) are averted during 2017-2080 in the Permissive NVP Scenario compared to the Restricted NVP Scenario. Assuming 40% NVP excess risk, 70 thousand SVADs and 1.2 million LYLs are averted. The impact is sensitive to the rate at which smokers switch to NVPs and quit smoking, and relatively insensitive to the smoking initiation and NVP initiation and cessation rates.

CONCLUSIONS

The model suggests the potential for public health gains to be achieved by relaxing NVP access regulations. However, the model would benefit from better information regarding the impact of NVPs on smoking under a relaxation of current restrictions.

IMPLICATIONS

Australia has implemented a strong array of cigarette-oriented policies, but has restricted access to NVPs. The Smoking and Vaping Model offers a framework for modeling hypothetical policy scenarios. The Australian model shows the potential for public health gains by maintaining cigarette-oriented policies while relaxing the current restrictive NVP policy. Modeling results under a permissive NVP policy are particularly sensitive to the estimated rates of smoking cessation and switching to vaping, which are not well established and will likely depend on past and future cigarette-oriented policies and the specific NVP policies implemented in Australia.

The Kentucky SimSmoke Tobacco Control Policy Model of Smokeless Tobacco and Cigarette Use

BACKGROUND

Smokeless tobacco (SLT) prevalence was decreasing in Kentucky before 2007, but has since increased. This study examines the impact of policies on cigarette and SLT use by applying the SimSmoke tobacco control policy simulation model.

METHODS

Using data from the large-scale Tobacco Use Supplement of the Current Population Survey (TUS-CPS) and information on state-specific tobacco policies, Kentucky SimSmoke is updated and extended to incorporate exclusive SLT and dual cigarette and SLT use. The model is validated using survey data through 2017. The model was used to estimate the impact on smoking and SLT prevalence and attributable deaths of policies implemented between 1993 and 2018 and the impact of stronger future policies implemented in 2018 and maintained through 2060.

RESULTS

SimSmoke generally reflects trends in exclusive cigarette use from the TUS-CPS and the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), but underestimated the increase in SLT prevalence in recent years. SimSmoke projects that policies implemented between 1993 and 2018 reduced male and female cigarette use by 23.7% and 23.0%, and male and female SLT use by 4.9% by 2018, averting 9018 tobacco-attributable deaths by 2018, increasing to 89 547 by 2060. The largest reductions in cigarette and SLT use were attributed to cigarette price increases. Strengthening tobacco control policies could reduce smoking prevalence by 41% and 40%, and reduce SLT prevalence by 33% and 25% for males and females by 2060.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that cigarette-oriented policies were effective in reducing SLT use but have been less successful in recent years. Future use rates can be further reduced through more restrictive statewide policies, which also target non-combustible nicotine products.

Preferred flavors and tobacco use patterns in adult dual users of cigarettes and ENDS

OBJECTIVES

This study examined how adult dual users of cigarettes and electronic nicotine delivery system (ENDS) flavor preference varied by demographics, tobacco history, motives, and expectancies for ENDS, and how ENDS flavor preference was associated with changes in cigarette and ENDS use over 12 months.

METHODS

Data come from the baseline and 12-month waves of an observational study of adult dual cigarette and ENDS users (N = 406). Flavor preferences were grouped into 4 categories: tobacco (12.6%), menthol/mint (34.7%), sweet (44.8%), and other (7.9%).

RESULTS

Users of sweet-flavored ENDS were significantly younger than those who used tobacco- or menthol flavors. Black dual users were significantly more likely than other racial groups to use menthol and less likely to use sweet flavors. Dual users who preferred sweet flavors smoked cigarettes on fewer days than those who preferred tobacco and menthol flavors, were less cigarette dependent, more strongly endorsed boredom reduction expectancies and motives related to taste and sensory experience and were more likely to stop smoking by 12 months.

CONCLUSIONS

Dual users of cigarettes and ENDS who preferred sweet flavored ENDS differed in demographics, tobacco history, motives, expectancies, and smoking changes. Findings have implications for interventions and regulations.

Electronic nicotine delivery systems use predicts transitions in cigarette smoking among young adults

BACKGROUND

Although cigarette smoking during young adulthood is characterized by volatility, few studies examine if use of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) impacts transitions in cigarette use behaviors across this developmental period. The purpose of this longitudinal study was to examine the role of ENDS use on three transitions in cigarette smoking among young adults; initiation, desistance, and re-uptake.

METHODS

Participants were 5029 18-29-year-olds (64.2% female) enrolled in one of 24 Texas colleges at baseline and involved in an eight-wave, 4.5-year study. A multi-state, continuous time Markov model was used to assess the role of current/past 30-day and ever ENDS use on three transitions, spanning at least six months 1) never to current smoking (initiation); 2) current to non-current smoking (desistance); and 3) non-current to current smoking (re-uptake). The model also contained time-invariant socio-demographic, and time-varying intrapersonal (other tobacco use, nicotine dependence, sensation seeking, depressive symptoms) and interpersonal (peer cigarette use) covariates.

RESULTS

Both current and ever ENDS use increased the probability of transitioning from never to current cigarette use (initiation) and decreased the probability of transitioning from current to non-current use (desistance). Current, but not ever, ENDS use also increased the probability of transitioning from non-current to current use (re-uptake). Adjustment for socio-demographic, intrapersonal, and interpersonal covariates did not alter these findings.

DISCUSSION

ENDS use in young adulthood increases the risk for cigarette smoking behaviors across the continuum of uptake and progression. Prevention and cessation efforts targeting both ENDS and cigarette use during young adulthood are needed.

The Role of Media and Retailer Message Recall on Malaysian Male Perceptions of E-Cigarette Use: The 2016 National Study of E-Cigarettes Prevalence

This study examined the perceptions of current smokers on electronic cigarette (EC) use, after exposure to information on EC use and its potential harms from various media and retail outlets. This cross-sectional study is a sub-analysis of the National Study of Electronic Cigarettes Prevalence (N = 4289) using the multi-stage stratified sampling method. Respondents were interviewed face-to-face by a trained data collector using a structured questionnaire printed in both Bahasa Malaysia and English. The analysis included 376 males who smoked conventional cigarettes and/or used ECs and reported ever seeing messages on ECs/vape in various platforms were analyzed using weighted simple and multiple logistic regression. Our findings showed different media types resulted in differing perceptions among smokers towards EC use especially between social media and conventional media. Those exposed to messages promoting EC in social media had higher odds of believing that ECs help people quit smoking (OR: 2.28), the urge to smoke is reduced by ECs (OR: 1.86), ECs are more effective than medication for quitting smoking (OR: 1.96), breathing is improved after using ECs (OR: 2.85), the smell of EC is better than a tobacco cigarette (OR: 2.73), and ECs should be regulated rather than banned completely (OR: 3.08). Vape shops, social, and conventional media provided very different perceptions among smokers towards EC use. Beyond using traditional communication channels, EC promoters have successfully utilized social media to promote ECs among smokers.

Explaining the Craving for Cigarette Smoking Based on Adverse Childhood Experiences and Subjective Socioeconomic Status among University Students in Isfahan, Iran

Background: Adverse childhood experiences are linked to a wide range of physical, social, sexual, and family dysfunctions. These experiences, such as smoking, may have negative health consequences. Objective: The goal of this study was to explain the desire to smoke in university students in Isfahan, Iran based on adverse childhood events and subjective socioeconomic status. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted on 450 young adults who were recruited randomly from Isfahan universities in 2020. To collect data, a checklist of adverse childhood events, craving for smoking, and a question about subjective socioeconomic status were used. Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the data. Results: According to the findings, 46.5 percent of all university students had at least one Adverse Childhood Experience, and 68.8 percent of all university students had some level of smoking craving. Controlling for demographic variables, respondents with one to five adverse childhood experiences (OR: 1.84; 95 percent of CI: 1.11-3.04) and six or more adverse childhood experiences (OR: 5.37; 95 percent of CI: 2.58-11.71) were more likely to crave smoking than respondents with no adverse childhood experiences. Furthermore, among all students, a higher subjective socioeconomic status reduced the likelihood of smoking by 19%. Conclusions and implications: It can be concluded that university students who have had adversity in their childhood are more likely to engage in high-risk behaviors like smoking. Because smoking is recognized as a coping mechanism for stressful events, it is suggested that personal, local, and national strategies aimed at young adults in Iran be developed.

[Diversification of smoking cessation programmes-the role of e-cigarettes]

The question of whether e‑cigarettes are a useful tool for smoking cessation is part of an ongoing and highly controversial scientific debate. In practice, however, the number of people trying to quit tobacco consumption by using these products is steadily increasing. This discussion article provides an outline of the current state of research on the issue of whether and to what extent e‑cigarettes can help people quit smoking.Of course, e‑cigarettes also have a certain potential for harm, especially if nicotine dependence is unnecessarily prolonged. Nevertheless, it can make an important contribution to harm reduction in nicotine consumption. Hence, the product should get treated as a serious alternative to nicotine replacement therapies (NRTs) in the scientific discussion. Like NRTs, e‑cigarettes offer a less harmful way of consuming nicotine that greatly reduces many of the health risks associated with tobacco consumption, such as the absorption of carcinogenic substances. Recent studies and reviews suggest that the product can be at least as effective as nicotine replacement therapies in helping people quit smoking. Individual studies even demonstrate the increased effectiveness of e‑cigarettes in supporting smoking cessation.Nevertheless, the review of the current literature shows that more high-quality research is needed to further understand the product and its properties. In terms of the harm reduction approach, however, it would already be more appropriate to also rely on e‑cigarettes instead of trying to force immediate and complete nicotine abstinence. After all, in the process of quitting smoking, the fastest possible cessation of the more unhealthy consumption of tobacco should be prioritized in order to immediately minimize unnecessary health risks.

Trends and Patterns of Tobacco and Nicotine Product Use Among Youth in Canada, England, and the United States From 2017 to 2019

PURPOSE

The tobacco and nicotine market is diversifying. Implications for public health will depend on trends in use, including overall use, and who is using these products. This study examined differences over time (2017-2019), across countries (Canada, England, the United States (US)), and by smoking and vaping, in use of other tobacco/nicotine products and overall use.

METHODS

The study includes online repeat cross-sectional surveys of youth aged 16-19 years in Canada (N = 11,714), England (N = 11,170), US (N = 11,838) in 2017, 2018, and 2019. Past 30-day use of tobacco/nicotine products (any, cigarette, e-cigarette, other combusted [cigars/cigarillos/waterpipe], other non-combusted [smokeless tobacco/nicotine replacement therapies) were examined by country, year, and, for other combusted and non-combusted products, past 30-day cigarette smoking and vaping. Use of emerging products (IQOS, nicotine pouches) was explored in 2018-2019.

RESULTS

From 2017 to 2019, use of any product increased in Canada (17.1%-23.2%, AOR = 1.07 [95% CI = 1.04-1.09]) and the US (18.0%-24.0%, AOR = 1.06 [1.04-1.09]) but not England (20.8%-21.7%, AOR = 1.01 [.99-1.03]). Use of other combusted products (cigars/cigarillos/waterpipe) showed little change (Canada: 8.1%-7.8%; England: 6.3%-7.3%; US: 8.6%-8.5%; p ≥ .151). Use of other non-combusted products (smokeless/nicotine replacement therapies) increased in all countries (Canada: 1.5%-3.2%, AOR = 1.02 [1.01-1.02]; England: 1.4%-2.6%, AOR = 1.02 [1.01-1.03]; US: 3.3%-4.9%, AOR = 1.02 [1.01-1.02]). Vaping increased in all countries (Canada: 8.4%-17.8%; England: 8.7%-12.6%; United States: 11.1%-18.5%; all p < .001). Smokers and vapers reported greater use of other combusted and non-combusted products than those who neither smoked/vaped (p < .001). Emerging product use was rare (≤1.5%).

CONCLUSIONS

Youth past 30-day tobacco and nicotine product use increased from 2017 to 2019 in Canada and the United States, largely due to increases in vaping and other non-combusted products. "Other" tobacco/nicotine products were used predominantly by youth who smoked cigarettes and/or vaped.

Heated Tobacco Products and Nicotine Pouches: A Survey of People with Experience of Smoking and/or Vaping in the UK

Background: To gauge the public health impact of new nicotine products, information is needed on use among different populations. Aims were to assess in adults who smoked, vaped, did both or had recently stopped: (1) awareness, ever and current use of heated tobacco products (HTPs) and nicotine pouches (NP), (2) characteristics associated with ever use, (3) reasons for use of and satisfaction with HTPs, (4) characteristics associated with interest in use of HTPs. Methods: Online survey in the UK in 2019, n = 3883. (1) Proportion aware, ever and current (≥monthly) use; (2) ever use regressed onto socio-demographics and smoking/vaping; (3) frequency of reasons for HTP use and satisfaction; (4) interest in trying HTPs regressed onto socio-demographics and smoking/vaping status. Results: Awareness was 34.8% for HTP and 15.9% for NP; current use was 3.2% and 2.7%. Being <45 years, higher education, living in London and currently both smoking and vaping were associated with ever having used the products. Curiosity was the most common reason for HTP use (79.8%) and 72.0% of ever HTP users found them at least as satisfying as smoking. Among those not currently using HTPs, 48.5% expressed any interest-lower among those aged over 65 and higher among those smoking and vaping. Conclusions: In this sample of adults with a history of nicotine use, very few currently used heated tobacco products or nicotine pouches. Satisfaction with and interest in HTPs were substantial. The low level of use is unlikely to substantially reduce the public health impact of smoking.

Correlates of e-cigarette use among adults initiating smoking cessation treatment

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the correlates of e-cigarette (EC) use among adults seeking smoking cessation treatment, and it is unclear how EC use affects smoking treatment outcomes.

METHODS

Participants were 649 adult smokers enrolled in smoking cessation treatment. Participants completed a baseline (pre-quit) assessment with follow-up at 4-, 12-, and 26-weeks after a scheduled combustible cigarette (CC) cessation date. EC use was described before and after the CC cessation date, and the impact of baseline EC use on CC cessation at follow-up was evaluated.

RESULTS

At baseline, 66.6 % of participants had ever-used ECs and 23.1 % reported past 30-day EC use. Past 30-day EC users were younger, more socioeconomically disadvantaged, more CC dependent, and less likely to report Black race compared to non-users. At the 4-, 12-, and 26-week follow-ups, 6.4 %, 7.4 %, and 8.1 % reported dual EC/CC use; and 2.7 %, 3.4 %, and 2.7 % had switched to exclusive EC use. Past 30-day EC use at baseline was not associated with CC cessation at any follow-up. However, among baseline past 30-day EC users (n = 150), using ECs ≥ once per week was associated with a lower likelihood of CC cessation at 26-week follow-up (adjusted OR 0.346, 95 % CI: 0.120, 0.997).

CONCLUSION

Findings indicated that dual users of CCs and ECs at baseline differed from CC-only users on sociodemographic and smoking characteristics. Baseline EC use did not impact smoking cessation overall. However, among past 30-day users, more frequent EC use at baseline adversely impacted longer-term cessation outcomes, perhaps due to greater baseline CC/nicotine dependence.

Nicotine delivery and relief of craving after consumption of European JUUL e-cigarettes prior and after pod modification

The emergence of e-cigarettes on the consumer market led to a tremendous rise in e-cigarette consumption among adolescents in the United States. The success of JUUL and other pod systems was linked to its high nicotine delivery capacity. In compliance with the European Tobacco Product directive, liquid nicotine contents in the European JUUL variants are limited to 20 mg/mL or below. A short time after launching the initial version in Europe, JUUL pods have been modified in terms of the wick material used. This modification has been demonstrated previously to lead to an elevated aerosol generation, consequently, to a larger amount of nicotine per puff generated. The present study was designed to assess whether the mentioned differences between the "initial" and "modified" JUUL versions may cause a significant difference during consumption, and how nicotine delivery compares with tobacco cigarettes. In this single-center three-arm study, nicotine pharmacokinetics and influence on urge to smoke/vape were compared for tobacco cigarettes, the "initial" version of the European JUUL, and the "modified" version of the European JUUL. Participants, 15 active smokers and 17 active e-cigarette users, were instructed to consume their study product according to a pre-directed puffing protocol. Venous blood was sampled for nicotine analysis to cover the acute phase and the first 30 min after starting. Nicotine delivery and the reduction of urge to smoke/vape upon usage of both European JUUL variants were lower in comparison to tobacco cigarettes. This suggests a lower addictive potential. Modification of the pod design did not result in significant differences at the first ten puffs, as confirmed by a vaping machine experiment. Apparently, the limitations by the initially used wick material only come into effect after longer usage time.

Overview of tobacco use transitions for population health

The Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act provided the US Food and Drug Administration authority to regulate tobacco products using a population health standard. Models have been developed to estimate the population health impacts of tobacco initiation, cessation and relapse transitions. Models should be informed by high-quality, longitudinal data to estimate these constructs. Simulation studies have generated data to predict the impact of various tobacco control interventions, including the influence of regulations on tobacco use behaviours and health. The purpose of this paper is to provide a high-level conceptual overview for understanding tobacco transition behaviours and correlates of these behaviours using data from the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study, a US nationally representative longitudinal tobacco study of about 46 000 persons aged 12+ years. The papers that follow in this journal issue build and expand on this conceptual overview using data from the first three waves of the PATH Study. These papers describe use patterns of different tobacco products and their correlates, and can serve as foundations for more in-depth papers that will help the research community better understand the population health impacts and drivers of different tobacco use patterns.

Framework for the public health assessment of electronic cigarettes

BACKGROUND

Electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) are relatively new products with substantial public health impacts. Evidence on their effects is diverse and emerging rapidly, presenting challenges to high-quality policymaking and decision-making. This paper addresses these challenges by developing and presenting a framework for the public health assessment of e-cigarettes, using the Australian context as an example.

METHODS

Framework development involved stakeholder engagement, development of guiding principles, and consideration of existing relevant frameworks and the evidence requirements of current policy options, identified in published and grey literature.

RESULTS

Guiding principles include the need for the framework to: be evidence based; include consideration of the likely balance of benefits and risks of e-cigarettes, uncertainty and safety; support equity; support the ongoing application of evidence to high-quality policy and practice; and consider potential competing interests. The framework draws upon: health technology assessment; health impact assessment; environmental health risk assessment; healthcare recommendations evidence evaluation; consumer goods regulation; medicine and chemical scheduling; tobacco product evaluation; previous reviews and the precautionary principle. Final framework components are: (1) characterisation of products under consideration; (2) definition of populations of interest; (3) characterisation of tobacco smoking, control and impacts on health and well-being; (4) review of evidence on patterns of e-cigarette use; (5) review of evidence on e-cigarette use and health outcomes; (6) assessment of likely risks, benefits and safety; (7) identification and assessment of policy options to optimise health outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Structured and ongoing public health assessment of e-cigarette use is likely to support health through enhancing evidence-based decision-making.

Rapid, sensitive, and reliable quantitation of nicotine and its main metabolites cotinine and trans-3'-hydroxycotinine by LC-MS/MS: Method development and validation for human plasma

New nicotine delivery products are gaining market share. For evaluation of their characteristics, toxicokinetic investigations are in current research focus. For reliable determination of blood plasma levels of nicotine and its main metabolites cotinine and trans-3'-hydroxycotinine, a quantitation method based on LC-ESI-MS/MS was developed and validated. Addition of isotope labeled internal standards prior to rapid sample preparation using protein precipitation with methanol was chosen for sample preparation. Different stationary phases were tested and phenyl-hexyl separation was found to be superior to HILIC, C18, and C8 stationary phases. Ion suppression effects caused by hydrophilic early eluting matrix were eliminated by the adjustment of an adequate retention utilizing a phenyl-hexyl separation stationary phase. Exchange of acetonitrile as organic mobile phase by methanol and elevation of pH value of aqueous mobile phase containing 5 mM NH₄Ac to 4.50 improved the chromatographic resolution. The limits of quantitation for nicotine, cotinine, and hydroxycotinine were 0.15, 0.30, and 0.40 ng/mL, respectively. Linearity was proven by matrix matched calibration for the whole working range from 0.50 ng/mL to 35.0 ng/mL for nicotine and from 6.00 to 420 ng/mL for cotinine and hydroxycotinine (Mandel's fitting test with R² > 0.995). Quality control samples at four different levels (0.50, 1.50, 17.5, 28.0 ng/mL for nicotine and 6.00, 18.0, 210, 336 ng/mL for cotinine and hydroxycotinine) in plasma were analyzed six times on three days. Mean accuracies ranged from 87.7% to 105.8% for nicotine, from 90.3% to 102.9% for cotinine, and from 99.9% to 109.9% for hydroxycotinine. Intra- and inter-day precisions (RSD %) were below 15% for all analytes (<20% for LLOQ). As proof of concept, the method was successfully applied to a real plasma sample from a cigarette smoking volunteer.

Applying the Population Health Standard to the Regulation of Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems

Regulatory authorities have devoted increasing attention and resources to a range of issues surrounding the regulation of novel nicotine and tobacco products. This review highlights the inherent complexity of evaluating prospective policies that pertain to products that heat solutions containing nicotine, but not tobacco leaf, sometimes referred to as electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS). The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is compelled to incorporate a set of public health criteria in their decision making, collectively referred to as the Population Health Standard. Adherence to this standard is necessary to estimate the impact of prospective ENDS policy decisions on net population harm associated with nontherapeutic nicotine products. For policies that are expected to decrease or increase ENDS use, application of the Population Health Standard requires a comprehensive assessment of the status quo impact of ENDS use on population health. Accordingly, this review first assesses the state of the evidence on the direct harms of ENDS and the indirect effects of ENDS use on smoking, particularly rates of initiation and cessation. After that, the example of flavor restrictions is used to demonstrate the further considerations that are involved in applying the Population Health Standard to a prospective ENDS policy. Implications: This narrative review aims to inform regulatory considerations about ENDS through the prism of the Population Health Standard. More specifically, this review (1) describes and explains the importance of this approach; (2) provides guidance on evaluating the state of the evidence linking ENDS to the net population harm associated with nontherapeutic nicotine products; and (3) illustrates how this framework can inform policymaking using the example of flavor restrictions.

US Nicotine Vaping Product SimSmoke Simulation Model: The Effect of Vaping and Tobacco Control Policies on Smoking Prevalence and Smoking-Attributable Deaths

The public health impact of nicotine vaping products (NVPs) is subject to a complex set of uncertain transitions between NVP and cigarette use. Instead, we apply an indirect method to gauge the impact of NVP use on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) using the well-established SimSmoke tobacco control policy simulation model. Upon validating the model before NVPs were more widely used, we project a No-NVP (i.e., in the absence of NVPs) while controlling for the impact of cigarette-oriented policies. The net impact of NVPs on smoking prevalence is inferred by comparing the projected No-NVP smoking trends to corresponding trends from two US national surveys. Using the TUS-CPS estimates for the period 2012-2018, we estimate that adult smoking prevalence declined in relative terms by 9.7% (95% CI: 7.5-11.7%) for males and 10.7% (95% CI: 9.1-13.0%) for females. Compared to NHIS, smoking prevalence declined by 10.7% (95% CI: 6.8-14.6%) for males and 11.3% (95% CI: 7.4-15.6%) for females. These impacts were confined mainly to ages 18-44. Vaping-related reductions in smoking prevalence were projected to avert nearly 0.4 million SADs between 2012 and 2052. Our analysis indicates that NVP use is associated with substantial reductions in US smoking prevalence among younger adults.

England SimSmoke: the impact of nicotine vaping on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths in England

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Whereas the use of nicotine vaping products (NVPs) is widespread, their impact on smoking prevalence is controversial. This study considered the potential impact of NVPs on smoking prevalence in England.

DESIGN

Indirect simulation model. The England SimSmoke model is validated through 2012, before NVP use became more widely used by smokers. Because information on NVP-related transitions is limited, an indirect method is used; the difference in observed smoking prevalence (reflecting NVPs) is compared with a 2012-2019 counterfactual No-NVP scenario (without NVPs) to estimate the impact of NVPs on smoking and smoking-attributable deaths.

SETTING

England, 2000-2019.

PARTICIPANTS

Nationally representative sample of population.

MEASUREMENTS

England's population, mortality rates and smoking prevalence estimates from three national surveys and tobacco control policies.

FINDINGS

Between 2000 and 2012, SimSmoke projected a decline in age 18+ smoking prevalence of 23.5% in men and 27.0% in women. These projections, as well as those by specific age groups, were generally consistent with findings from the three national surveys. Comparing 2012-2019 relative reduction in age 18+ prevalence from the Annual Population Survey (males, 27.5%) with the model-predicted No-NVP reduction (males, 7.3%), the implied NVP-attributable relative reduction in adult smoking prevalence was 20.2% (95% CI, 18.8%-22.0%) for males and 20.4% (18.7%-22.2%) for females. The NVP-attributable reduction was 27.2% (22.8%-31.6%) for males and 31.7% (27.4%-36.5%) for females ages 18-24 and 18.6% (15.2%-21.8%) for males and 15.0% (11.1%-18.8%) for females ages 25-34, with similar reductions for ages 35+. The implied reduction in smoking prevalence between 2012 and 2019 equates to 165 660 (132 453-199 501) averted deaths by 2052. Other surveys yielded smaller, but relatively consistent results.

CONCLUSIONS

An indirect method of simulation modelling indicates that substantial reductions in smoking prevalence occurred in England from 2012-2019 coinciding with the growth in nicotine vaping product use.

Youth Vaping and Tobacco Use in Context in the United States: Results From the 2018 National Youth Tobacco Survey

INTRODUCTION

According to the National Youth Tobacco Survey (NYTS), youth e-cigarette use (vaping) rose between 2017 and 2018. Frequency of vaping and concurrent past 30-day (p30d) use of e-cigarettes and tobacco products have not been reported.

METHODS

We analyzed the 2018 NYTS (N = 20 189) for vaping among all students (middle and high school; 6-12th grades; 9-19 years old) by frequency of vaping, exclusive vaping, p30d poly-product use (vaping and use of one or more tobacco product), and any past tobacco product use.

RESULTS

In 2018, 81.4% of students had not used any tobacco or vapor product in the p30d, and 86.2% had not vaped in the p30d. Among all students, of the 13.8% vaped in the p30d, just over half vaped on ≤5 days (7.0%), and roughly a quarter each vaped on 6-19 days (3.2%) and on 20+ days (3.6%). Almost three quarters of p30d vapers (9.9%) reported past or concurrent tobacco use and the remainder (3.9%) were tobacco naïve. 2.8% of students were tobacco naïve and vaped on ≤5 days; 0.7% were tobacco-naïve and vaped on 6-19 days, and 0.4% were tobacco-naïve and vaped on 20+ days.

CONCLUSIONS

Vaping increased among US youth in 2018 over 2017. The increases are characterized by patterns of low p30d vaping frequency and high poly-product use, and a low prevalence of vaping among more frequent but tobacco naïve vapers.

IMPLICATIONS

Results underscore the importance of including the full context of use patterns. The majority of vapers (60.0%-88.9% by use frequency) were concurrent p30d or ever tobacco users. About 4% of students were tobacco naïve and vaped in the p30d, but few (0.4%) vaped regularly on 20 or more days. Reporting youth vaping data with frequency and tobacco product co-use will give public health decision-makers the best possible information to protect public health.

Public health implications of vaping in the USA: the smoking and vaping simulation model

Background

Nicotine vaping products (NVPs) are increasingly popular worldwide. They may provide public health benefits if used as a substitute for smoking, but may create public health harms if used as a gateway to smoking or to discourage smoking cessation. This paper presents the Smoking and Vaping Model (SAVM), a user-friendly model which estimates the public health implications of NVPs in the USA.

Methods

SAVM adopts a cohort approach. We derive public health implications by comparing smoking- and NVP-attributable deaths and life-years lost under a No-NVP and an NVP Scenario. The No-NVP Scenario projects current, former, and never smoking rates via smoking initiation and cessation rates, with their respective mortality rates. The NVP Scenario allows for smoking- and NVP-specific mortality rates, switching from cigarette to NVP use, separate NVP and smoking initiation rates, and separate NVP and smoking cessation rates. After validating the model against recent US survey data, we present the base model with extensive sensitivity analyses.

Results

The SAVM projects that under current patterns of US NVP use and substitution, NVP use will translate into 1.8 million premature smoking- and vaping-attributable deaths avoided and 38.9 million life-years gained between 2013 and 2060. When the NVP relative risk is set to 5%, the results are sensitive to the level of switching and smoking cessation rates and to a lesser extent smoking initiation rates. When the NVP relative risk is raised to 40%, the public health gains in terms of averted deaths and LYL are reduced by 42% in the base case, and the results become much more sensitive to variations in the base case parameters.

Discussion

Policymakers, researchers, and other public health stakeholders can apply the SAVM to estimate the potential public health impact of NVPs in their country or region using their own data sources. In developing new simulation models involving NVPs, it will be important to conduct extensive sensitivity analysis and continually update and validate with new data.

Conclusion

The SAVM indicates the potential benefits of NVP use. However, given the uncertainty surrounding model parameters, extensive sensitivity analysis becomes particularly important.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12963-021-00250-7.

Nicotine Dependence in Dual Users of Cigarettes and E-Cigarettes: Common and Distinct Elements

INTRODUCTION

In a sample of dual users of cigarettes and electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS; e-cigarettes), we evaluated psychometric properties of ENDS versions of the Nicotine Dependence Syndrome Scale (NDSS), the brief Wisconsin Inventory of Smoking Dependence Motives (WISDM), and the Fagerström Test for Nicotine Dependence (FTND). Using the NDSS, we tested the hypothesis that there would be one common underlying factor of dependence across the cigarette and ENDS scales and other product-specific factors.

AIMS AND METHODS

Adult dual users (N = 404) completed baseline cigarette and ENDS versions of the NDSS, WISDM, and FTND, and biweekly surveys of their smoking and vaping. Analyses included bifactor modeling, which helps to identify both a general and product-specific factor for each item, and exploratory factor analyses of the combined cigarette and ENDS NDSS items and examinations of concurrent and predictive validity.

RESULTS

The bifactor model was not a good fit, suggesting the lack of one common underlying dependence factor. Factor analyses revealed separate, similar factors for both products, with only one factor (priority) showing overlap of cigarette and ENDS items. ENDS scales significantly predicted ENDS use over time, but not cigarette use. Cigarette scales did not predict ENDS use over time.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the cigarette and ENDS NDSS versions showed similar factor structure, there was not a primary common underlying factor reflecting drive or tolerance, but rather product-specific factors. The cigarette scales were not valid for predicting ENDS use. These results highlight the importance of separately assessing dependence for cigarettes and ENDS in dual users.

IMPLICATIONS

Although underlying dimensions of nicotine dependence may be similar for ENDS and cigarettes, separate, product-specific measures may be needed to understand differences in product-specific dependency and predict changes in use of each product over time.

Factors that influence smokers' and ex-smokers' use of IQOS: a qualitative study of IQOS users and ex-users in the UK

BACKGROUND

One of the most widely available heated tobacco products is IQOS by Philip Morris International. However, there is a lack of independent research exploring IQOS initiation and subsequent use among smokers and ex-smokers.

AIMS

To (1) explore the reasons why smokers and ex-smokers use and continue/discontinue IQOS and (2) consider implications for future research and policy.

PARTICIPANTS

Adult (18+) current (n=22) and ex-users (n=8) of IQOS who either currently smoked or quit smoking in the last 2 years.

METHODS

Qualitative interview study in London, UK.

RESULTS

Six main factors influenced initiation and use of IQOS: (1) Health-wanting to reduce/quit smoking and perceptions of reduced harm (while understanding IQOS was not risk-free). Branded packaging, absence of pictorial warnings and physical health improvements conveyed reduced harm. (2) Financial-including high start-up costs, but cheaper ongoing costs than smoking. (3) Physical-mixed views on enjoyment and satisfaction. Sensory experiences influenced use including discreetness, cleanliness, reduced smell and tactile similarities relative to combustible cigarettes. (4) Practical-issues of accessibility, shortcomings with maintenance/operation limited ongoing use, whereas use in smoke-free places increased use. (5) Psychological-similarities in rituals and routines, although new practices developed to charge and clean; some liked trailblazing new technology. (6) Social-improved social interactions from using IQOS instead of smoking, but with more limited shared social experiences for some.

CONCLUSION

For some, IQOS facilitated smoking substitution. Factors such as packaging, labelling, risk communication, price and smoke-free policies appear to influence initiation and use.

Trends in Tobacco Use Among Adolescents by Grade, Sex, and Race, 1991-2019

IMPORTANCE

Use of e-cigarettes increased among adolescents between 2011 and 2019. However, whether these changes are affecting patterns of use of other tobacco products, especially cigarettes, remains unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the long-term and recent trends in cigarette smoking and smokeless tobacco product use among US adolescents by grade (8th, 10th, and 12th), sex (male and female), and race (White and Black).

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

In this cross-sectional study, joinpoint regression analyses were performed to characterize trends in tobacco product use for key sociodemographic groups, identifying change of trend years (joinpoints). Students in the 8th, 10th, and 12th grades at US secondary schools and high schools who participated in the nationally representative Monitoring the Future survey from January 7, 1991, to June 3, 2019, were evaluated.

EXPOSURES

Cigarette smoking and smokeless tobacco product use during the past 30 days.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Past 30-day and daily prevalence of cigarette smoking and smokeless tobacco product use by year, grade, sex, and race. The prevalence trend segments, change of trend years (joinpoints), and annual percentage change (APC) in prevalence within each trend segment were estimated using joinpoint regression.

RESULTS

Since 1991, 487 335 8th-grade, 447 310 10th-grade, and 424 236 12th-grade students have completed the Monitoring the Future survey (including 663 663 girls and 632 698 boys [those who did not respond to the sex question in the survey were excluded from the sex analyses]). Past 30-day and daily smoking prevalence increased in all groups analyzed from 1991 until 1996 and 1997 and has been decreasing ever since, with more rapid reductions in recent years. For example, daily smoking among 12th-grade boys increased at an APC of 4.9% (95% CI, 3.5%-6.3%) from 1991 to 1998, decreased at an APC of -8.0% (95% CI, -9.3% to -6.7%) from 1998 to 2006, decreased at an APC of -1.6% (95% CI, -4.6% to 1.5%) from 2006 to 2012, and decreased at an APC of -17.4% (95% CI, -19.4% to -15.4%) from 2012 to 2019. Similar results were observed for boys in the 8th grade (5.0% [95% CI, 0.1%-10.2%] for 1991-1996, -8.8% [95% CI, -10.0% to -7.6%] for 1996-2011, and -17.3% [95% CI, -22.2% to -12.0%] for 2011-2019) and 10th grade (7.1% [95% CI, 3.7%-10.7%] for 1991-1997, -11.1% [95% CI, -13.9% to -8.2%] for 1997-2005,-0.7% [95% CI, -5.9% to 4.9%] for 2005-2011, and -17.9 [95%, -21.7% to -13.9%] for 2011-2019), for girls in 8th grade (10.9% [95% CI, 5.0%-17.2%] for 1991-1996 and -10.8% [95% CI, -11.7% to -10.0% for 1996-2019), 10th grade (7.2% [95% CI, 3.9%-10.7%] for 1991-1997, -9.5% [95% CI, -10.5% to -8.6%] for 1997-2012, and -16.3% [95% CI, -21.8% to -10.4%] for 2012-2019), and 12th grade (6.5% [95% CI, 3.6%-9.5%] for 1991-1997, -7.2% [95% CI, -8.1% to -6.3%] for 1997-2012, and -17.5% [95% CI, -21.2% to -13.6%] for 2012-2019). Results were similar, too, for Black adolescents (2015-2019 average annual percentage change: -8.6% [95% CI, -10.3% to -6.8%] for 8th graders; -17.7% [95% CI, -26.3% to -8.2%] for 10th graders; and -18.3% [95% CI, -23.9% to -12.2%] for 12th graders) and White adolescents (2015-2019 average annual percentage change: -17.3% [95% CI, -20.6% to -13.7%] for 8th graders; -16.9% [95% CI, -20.5% to -13.2%] for 10th graders; and -17.0% [95% CI, -20.5% to -13.2%] for 12th graders). Smokeless tobacco was used more variably through 2012, followed by consistent decreases in the past 5 years. For instance, smokeless tobacco use in the past 30 days in 10th-grade boys decreased at an APC of -6.5% (95% CI, -7.5% to -5.4%) from 1991 to 2004, increased at an APC of 3.1% (95% CI, -0.8% to 7.1%) from 2004 to 2012, and decreased at an APC of -11.6% (95% CI, -15.7% to -7.4%) from 2012 to 2019. Similarly, daily smokeless tobacco use in 12th-grade boys decreased at an APC of -3.8% (95% CI, -5.4% to -2.1%) from 1992 to 2005, increased at an APC of 3.1% (95% CI, -0.2% to 6.5%) from 2005 to 2015, and decreased at an APC of -23.0% (95% CI, -33.3% to -11.0%) from 2015 to 2019.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This cross-sectional study suggests that, despite the increase in the prevalence of e-cigarette use among adolescents between 2011 and 2019, the prevalence of cigarette and smokeless tobacco use has decreased more rapidly during the same period compared with earlier years.

Transitions between cigarette, ENDS and dual use in adults in the PATH study (waves 1-4): multistate transition modelling accounting for complex survey design

INTRODUCTION

Even prior to 2018, electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) began to dramatically change the landscape of tobacco products and product use patterns in the USA.

METHODS

Using a Markov multistate transition model accounting for complex survey design, transition rates between never, non-current, cigarette, ENDS and dual use states were estimated for 23 253 adult participants in waves 1-4 (approximately 2013-2017) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health study. We made short-term transition projections and estimated HRs for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education and income.

RESULTS

Cigarette use was persistent among adults, with 89.7% (95% CI 89.1% to 90.3%) of exclusive cigarette users and 86.1% (95% CI 84.4% to 87.9%) of dual users remaining cigarette users (either exclusive or dual) after one wave. In contrast, ENDS use was less persistent, with 72.1% (95% CI 69.6% to 74.6%) of exclusive ENDS users and 50.5% (95% CI 47.8% to 53.3%) of dual users remaining ENDS users (with or without cigarettes) after one wave. Exclusive ENDS users were more likely to start cigarette use after one wave than either never users (HR 25.2; 95% CI 20.9 to 30.5) or non-current users (HR 5.0; 95% CI 4.3 to 5.8). Dual users of ENDS and cigarettes were more likely to stop using cigarettes than exclusive cigarette users (HR 1.9; 95% CI 1.6 to 2.3). Transition rates varied among sociodemographic groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Multistate transition models are an effective tool for uncovering and characterising longitudinal patterns and determinants of tobacco use from complex survey data. ENDS use among US adults was less persistent than cigarette use prior to 2018.

Modulation of "Protective" Nicotine Perception and Use Profile by Flavorants: Preliminary Findings in E-cigarettes

INTRODUCTION

Characterizing flavors are widely available in e-cigarettes and motivate initiation and continued use. Flavors may enhance appeal and facilitate development of addiction to tobacco products through modulation of tobacco products' reinforcing or aversive actions. Palatable flavors (eg, fruit) may increase appeal through primary reinforcing properties. Menthol's cooling and anesthetic effects may increase appeal by counteracting nicotine's aversive effects. Genetics provide a method for modeling individual differences in sensitivity to nicotine's effects. A common polymorphism, rs16969968, encoded in the α5 nicotinic acetylcholine receptor subunit gene (CHRNA5), is a well-recognized marker for smoking risk and reduces sensitivity to nicotine aversiveness.

METHODS

This pilot study tested how flavors impacted e-cigarette appeal and self-administration. In a single testing day, cigarette smokers (N = 32; 94% menthol-smokers) self-administered e-cigarettes containing e-liquids differing in nicotine level (0 mg/mL, 24 mg/mL) and flavor (unflavored, menthol, fruit-flavored) within directed and ad libitum e-cigarette paradigms. Subjective drug effects, number of puffs, rs16969968 genotype, plasma nicotine, and menthol glucuronide levels were collected.

RESULTS

Menthol partially ameliorated nicotine aversiveness; fruit did not. In nicotine's absence, fruit flavor increased self-reported preference and ad libitum use relative to menthol-containing or unflavored e-liquids. Individuals with high-smoking-risk rs16969968 genotype (N = 7) reported greater craving alleviation following directed administration of nicotine-containing e-liquids, showed a trend rating nicotine-containing e-liquids as less harsh, and self-administered more nicotine during ad libitum compared to individuals with low-smoking-risk genotype (N = 23).

CONCLUSIONS

While menthol countered aversiveness of nicotine-containing e-liquids, fruit flavor increased appeal of nicotine-free e-liquids. These preliminary findings suggest menthol and fruit flavor increase e-cigarettes' appeal through distinct mechanisms.

IMPLICATIONS

This study provides a detailed characterization of the effects of flavors (unflavored, menthol, fruit), nicotine (0 mg/mL, 24 mg/mL) and their interactions on the subjective drug effects and ad libitum self-administration of e-cigarettes. Genetics were used to assess these effects in higher-smoking-risk (diminished sensitivity to nicotine aversiveness) and lower-risk groups. Findings could inform impact of regulation of flavors or nicotine in e-cigarettes, and their impacts on vulnerable sub-populations.

Therapeutic potential of alkaloids in autoimmune diseases: Promising candidates for clinical trials

Clinical investigations have characterized numerous disorders like autoimmune diseases, affecting the population at a rate of approximately 8-10%. These disorders are characterized by T-cell and auto-antibodies responses to self-molecules by immune system reactivity. Several therapeutic options have been adopted in clinics to combat such diseases, however, most of them are recurring. Thus, the discovery of new effective agents for the treatment of autoimmune diseases is paramount. In this context, natural products might be a useful alternative to the current therapies. Plant alkaloids with their substantial therapeutic history can be particularly interesting candidates for the alleviation of autoimmune ailments. This review encompasses various alkaloids with significant effects against autoimmune diseases in preclinical trials. These results suggest further clinical assessment with respect to autoimmune illnesses. Furthermore, the application of modern technologies such as nanoformulation could be also helpful in the design of more effective therapies and thus further studies are needed to decipher their therapeutic efficacy as well as potential limitations.

The actual and anticipated effects of a menthol cigarette ban: a scoping review

Background

The United States (US) Food and Drug Administration (FDA), under the 2009 Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act, banned characterizing flavors in cigarettes; however, mentholated tobacco products were exempt. Since 2009, over 20 US jurisdictions and numerous countries around the world have extended this restriction to menthol. Currently, the FDA is reconsidering its position on a nation-wide menthol cigarette ban. However, the effects of such a ban remain unclear. We conducted a scoping review to explore the impact of a menthol cigarette ban on individual behaviors (initiation, cessation, and product switching), sales, and compliance.

Methods

We conducted a search of the international literature using PubMed, EBSCO, and Web of Science (to November 25, 2019). We retrieved articles relevant to the impacts of an implemented or hypothetical menthol ban. We also included studies of flavored tobacco product bans due to their potential relevance in gauging compliance and product substitutability.

Results

The search identified 493 articles, of which 24 were included. Studies examined the effects of implemented menthol bans (n = 6), hypothetical menthol bans (n = 12) and implemented flavor bans that exclude menthol (n = 6). Menthol bans were found to reduce sales and increase smoking cessation with only partial substitution for non-menthol cigarettes. US smokers’ reactions to a hypothetical ban indicate that about 25–64% would attempt to quit smoking and 11–46% would consider switching to other tobacco products, including 15–30% to e-cigarettes. Flavor ban studies indicate reductions in initiation of 6%. Ban compliance was high, but studies indicate that the tobacco industry and retailers have attempted to circumvent their impact via packaging changes and online sales.

Conclusion

Our review finds that extending the US cigarette flavor ban to menthol products would promote smoking cessation and reduce initiation. This evidence supports further action by the FDA towards mentholated tobacco products. However, few studies have been conducted in the vaping era.

Tobacco 21 Laws in Europe: A Policy Whose Time Has Come

INTRODUCTION

A 21 tobacco age of sale has been proposed for European nations.

METHODS

We briefly review past studies of underage purchase policies and their enforcement.

RESULTS

Past evaluations and modeling studies indicate important public health gains from 21 tobacco age of sale laws. However, further attention should be given to issues of compliance, the availability of social sources, and the breadth of coverage. In particular, the application of the law to e-cigarettes merits further attention.

CONCLUSIONS

Past literature indicates potential benefits of a 21 tobacco age of sale in terms of reducing tobacco use in European nations.

IMPLICATIONS

We review past studies of underage purchase laws, and the potential implications of applying that law to e-cigarettes. Past studies indicate the effectiveness of raising tobacco age of sale laws to 21. This law should be implemented and enforced in Europe.

What are the reasons that smokers reject ENDS? A national probability survey of U.S. Adult smokers, 2017-2018

BACKGROUND

The objective was to examine the reasons smokers have discontinued or chosen not to use electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS).

METHODS

Data were obtained from a national probability sample of 1843 US adult current smokers who were not current ENDS users pooled from the 2017 and 2018 annual, cross-sectional Tobacco Products and Risk Perceptions Surveys. Participants reported their ENDS use, reasons for discontinuing or not initiating ENDS use, quit smoking intentions, perceptions, and use intentions. Weighted proportions and logistic regression models were estimated.

RESULTS

Twenty-three percent of smokers were former ENDS users who reported prior "regular use", and 7.5% were former ENDS users who reported regular use. Three most cited reasons for discontinuing ENDS were: ENDS "didn't feel like smoking" (23%), "only ever tried them to see what they were like" (20%), and "didn't help me deal with cravings for smoking" (14%). Reasons for discontinuing ENDS were associated with the regularity of former ENDS use and ENDS type. Nearly 40% of current smokers had not tried ENDS with the most commonly cited reasons being not wanting to substitute one addiction for another (60%), concerns about their safety (53%), skepticism that ENDS could help them quit smoking (52%), and cost (43%). Reasons were associated with smoking quit intentions, harm perceptions, and age.

CONCLUSION

Whereas smokers who had formerly used ENDS cited inadequate craving reduction or incomparability to smoking for their discontinuation, the larger segment of smokers who have never used ENDS cited "safety," "effectiveness," and "costs" as reasons for non-use.

E-cigarette and hookah adoption patterns: Is the harm reduction theory just so much smoke?

AIMS

This paper explores inter-generational changes in consumers smoking product uptake and use patterns after the introduction of e-cigarettes and hookahs.

DESIGN

Item Response Theory (IRT) is used to analyze the Health Information National Trends Survey sponsored by the Food and Drug Administration (HINTS-FDA). The survey was fielded in 2015. IRT allows the pattern of product use to be described and help assess whether the new tobacco products (i.e., e-cigarettes, hookahs) serve as gateway to other products or act in harm reduction modality.

FINDINGS

The results indicate that the new product alternatives have changed the how tobacco products are adopted in the U.S. In particular, younger respondents were more likely to have engaged in cigar, e-cigarette and water-pipe use than the older cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

The introduction of nicotine products previously unavailable in the U.S is creating new modes for smoking initiation in the age groups most likely to begin a new habit. There is little evidence that smokers in the older HINTS cohorts are using the e-cigarette as a smoking cessation tool. The rise of cigar use in the younger cohort may indicate that legal products are being mixed with illicit substances (i.e., 'blunting').

Novel microsimulation model of tobacco use behaviours and outcomes: calibration and validation in a US population

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Simulation models can project effects of tobacco use and cessation and inform tobacco control policies. Most existing tobacco models do not explicitly include relapse, a key component of the natural history of tobacco use. Our objective was to develop, calibrate and validate a novel individual-level microsimulation model that would explicitly include smoking relapse and project cigarette smoking behaviours and associated mortality risks.

METHODS

We developed the Simulation of Tobacco and Nicotine Outcomes and Policy (STOP) model, in which individuals transition monthly between tobacco use states (current/former/never) depending on rates of initiation, cessation and relapse. Simulated individuals face tobacco use-stratified mortality risks. For US women and men, we conducted cross-validation with a Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) model. We then incorporated smoking relapse and calibrated cessation rates to reflect the difference between a transient quit attempt and sustained abstinence. We performed external validation with the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and the linked National Death Index. Comparisons were based on root-mean-square error (RMSE).

RESULTS

In cross-validation, STOP-generated projections of current/former/never smoking prevalence fit CISNET-projected data well (coefficient of variation (CV)-RMSE≤15%). After incorporating smoking relapse, multiplying the CISNET-reported cessation rates for women/men by 7.75/7.25, to reflect the ratio of quit attempts to sustained abstinence, resulted in the best approximation to CISNET-reported smoking prevalence (CV-RMSE 2%/3%). In external validation using these new multipliers, STOP-generated cumulative mortality curves for 20-year-old current smokers and never smokers each had CV-RMSE ≤1% compared with NHIS. In simulating those surveyed by NHIS in 1997, the STOP-projected prevalence of current/former/never smokers annually (1998-2009) was similar to that reported by NHIS (CV-RMSE 12%).

CONCLUSIONS

The STOP model, with relapse included, performed well when validated to US smoking prevalence and mortality. STOP provides a flexible framework for policy-relevant analysis of tobacco and nicotine product use.

Integrating Social Dynamics Into Modeling Cigarette and E-Cigarette Use

Background. The use of electronic cigarettes (e-cigarette) offers potential to facilitate cigarette smoking cessation, yet potentially increases risk of cigarette smoking initiation. This relationship has been primarily modeled in mathematical ways that often do not represent real-world complexities, which could inform decisions regarding local prevention programs or policies. Aims. To develop a model of cigarette and e-cigarette use that combines current research on tobacco use and incorporates real-world geographic and demographic data. Method. We used a platform for developing agent-based models with demographic information representative of the population in Pennsylvania. We developed three models of cigarette and e-cigarette use. The primary outcome for each was the total number of users for cigarette, e-cigarette, and total nicotine. The first model applied current cigarette and e-cigarette data, the second tested the effect of implementing a program of e-cigarette education and policies, and the third considered a social contagion factor, where local schools functioned as a transmission vector. Results. The baseline and social contagion models found an overall decline in cigarette use but an increase in e-cigarette and total nicotine use. The education/policies model had declines in all categories. Sensitivity analysis suggested the importance of nuanced e-cigarette/cigarette interactions when modeling tobacco use. Discussion. Public health campaigns that focus on reducing youth e-cigarette usage can have a large effect. Social contagion should be strongly considered when studying e-cigarette spread. Conclusion. Targeted public health campaigns focused on reducing school prevalence of e-cigarette use may be particularly valuable.

Heat Not Burn Tobacco Product-A New Global Trend: Impact of Heat-Not-Burn Tobacco Products on Public Health, a Systematic Review

Introduction: The use of heat-not-burn tobacco products (HnB) is being adopted increasingly as an alternative to smoking combusted products, primarily cigarettes. Substantial controversy has accompanied their marketing and use in the public health context. In this study, we aimed to consider the probable impacts of HnB tobacco products use on public health. Methods: In May 2019, we conducted a systematic review of 15 studies concerning awareness and use of IQOS (abbrv. I Quit Ordinary Smoking) selected from three databases: Cochrane, PubMed, and Embase regarding public health. Results: All key outcomes varied by smoking status: more young adults who were currently smoking reported being aware of, interested in trying, and prone to trying heat-not-burn tobacco products. Interest in trying HnB products was also present among non-smokers, which raises concerns regarding new smokers. Interestingly, susceptibility to trying IQOS (25.1%) was higher than for traditional cigarettes (19.3%), but lower than for e-cigarettes (29.1%). Conclusions: Present studies suggest that HnB tobacco products have the potential to be a reduced risk product for public health compared to conventional cigarettes, considering indirectly the potential effects on the chronic diseases which are traditionally linked to traditional cigarette use as well as second hand exposure, but further studies are needed to determine whether this potential is likely to be realized. The process of HnB tobacco products becoming increasingly popular is of a global scale. Only small differences between countries on different continents regarding popularity and use of HnB tobacco products have been reported.

The Impact of Implementing Tobacco Control Policies: The 2017 Tobacco Control Policy Scorecard

The Tobacco Control Scorecard, published in 2004, presented estimates of the effectiveness of different policies on smoking rates. Since its publication, new evidence has emerged. We update the Scorecard to include recent studies of demand-reducing tobacco policies for high-income countries. We include cigarette taxes, smoke-free air laws, media campaigns, comprehensive tobacco control programs, marketing bans, health warnings, and cessation treatment policies. To update the 2004 Scorecard, a narrative review was conducted on reviews and studies published after 2000, with additional focus on 3 policies in which previous evidence was limited: tobacco control programs, graphic health warnings, and marketing bans. We consider evaluation studies that measured the effects of policies on smoking behaviors. Based on these findings, we derive estimates of short-term and long-term policy effect sizes. Cigarette taxes, smoke-free air laws, marketing restrictions, and comprehensive tobacco control programs are each found to play important roles in reducing smoking prevalence. Cessation treatment policies and graphic health warnings also reduce smoking and, when combined with policies that increase quit attempts, can improve quit success. The effect sizes are broadly consistent with those previously reported for the 2004 Scorecard but now reflect the larger evidence base evaluating the impact of health warnings and advertising restrictions.

Prevalence and correlates of long-term e-cigarette and nicotine replacement therapy use: a prospective study in England

OBJECTIVES

To examine the prevalence of, and sociodemographic and smoking-related characteristics associated with, long-term e-cigarette use compared with long-term nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) use.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional and prospective survey, the Smoking Toolkit Study, with baseline data collected between September 2014 and September 2016 and follow-ups at 6 and 12 months.

SETTING

England.

PARTICIPANTS

Population representative sample of 40 933 adults aged 16+ years.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Prevalence of long-term (≥12 months) use of e-cigarettes and NRT by retrospective self-report among baseline respondents (all adults, n=40 933; smokers, n=8406) and current use at baseline, 6 months and 12 months in a subsample of smokers who responded to follow-up (n=733).

RESULTS

Of baseline respondents, 1.5% (95% CI 1.4% to 1.6%, n=604) of adults and 3.9% (95% CI 3.5% to 4.3%, n=327) of smokers were long-term e-cigarette users and 0.5% (95% CI 0.4% to 0.6%, n=205) of adults and 1.3% (95% CI 1.1% to 1.5%, n=112) of smokers were long-term NRT users. Assessed prospectively, 13.4% (95% CI 10.9% to 15.9%, n=100) of smokers were long-term e-cigarette users and 1.9% (95% CI 0.9% to 2.9%, n=14) were long-term NRT users. Among all adults, long-term use by never smokers of either e-cigarettes (0.1%, n=27) or NRT (0.0%, n=7) was rare. Among past-year smokers, long-term e-cigarette and NRT use was higher among older smokers compared with those who were 16-34 years old (OR range=1.55-5.21). Long-term e-cigarette use only was lower in smokers who were less educated (OR=0.63, 95% CI 0.49 to 0.81), from social grades C2DE (OR=0.66, 95% CI 0.52 to 0.84) and with children in the household (OR=0.66, 95% CI 0.51 to 0.85). Long-term e-cigarette use and long-term NRT use were higher among smokers more motivated to quit (OR=2.05, 95% CI 1.63 to 2.60 and OR=2.33, 95% CI 1.57 to 3.46).

CONCLUSIONS

In the adult population in England, long-term use of e-cigarettes and long-term use of NRT are almost exclusively by current or ex-smokers. Only a minority of past-year smokers retrospectively report long-term e-cigarette or NRT use, but this figure may be an underestimate, especially for e-cigarette use, which is more than threefold higher when assessed prospectively.

Multimodal Smoking Cessation in a Real-Life Setting: Combining Motivational Interviewing With Official Therapy and Reduced Risk Products

BACKGROUND

Tobacco use is a global pandemic, affecting an estimated 1.2 billion people and resulting in substantial health burdens and associated costs.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to estimate the efficacy of several treatments for smoking cessation in a real-life setting and to evaluate predictors of smoking abstinence.

METHODS

This research was designed with a sample of 593 cases recorded over the period between 2015 and 2016. Six treatment groups were included: (1) bupropion and motivational interviewing (MI); (2) bupropion, nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), and MI; (3) NRT and MI; (4) varenicline and MI; (5) personal vaporizer electronic cigarette and MI; and (6) electronic cigarette, cigarette like "cigalike," and MI.

RESULTS

Results support the efficacy of all treatment groups when used in a real-life setting. The predictors of smoking abstinence were sex, partner smoking status, previous quit attempts, daily consumption, self-efficacy, and level of nicotine dependence.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of different therapeutic strategies in clinical practice, including pharmacotherapy and nonstandard electronic nicotine delivery systems, such as an electronic cigarette, ensures a greater chance of cessation success and the possibility of tailoring interventions according to patients' resources.

A modeling approach to gauging the effects of nicotine vaping product use on cessation from cigarettes: what do we know, what do we need to know?

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The long-term population health impact of nicotine vaping products (NVPs) use among smokers is unknown, and subject to a range of plausible assumptions about the use and health consequences of NVPs. While NVPs use may substitute for cigarette smoking and thereby aid in quitting cigarette use, it is also possible that smokers who would have otherwise quit would instead delay quitting cigarettes. We aimed to develop a cohort-specific simulation model of the impact of NVPs on smoking cessation by adult smokers and resulting premature deaths (PD) and life years lost (LYL).

DESIGN

A cohort-specific simulation model of the impact of NVPs on smoking cessation by adult smokers and resulting premature deaths (PD) and life years lost (LYL) was developed by gender for two birth cohorts, aged 30 and 50 years in 2012. Extensive sensitivity analyses were conducted.

SETTING

United States.

PARTICIPANTS

Smokers in two birth cohorts, aged 30 and 50 years in 2012.

MEASUREMENTS

Data were from the 1965-2012 National Health Interview Surveys and the 2014/15 Tobacco Use Supplement of the Current Population Survey. The model incorporated a range of plausible assumptions from published literature about transition rates from regular smoking to exclusive NVP and dual use, from dual use to exclusive NVP use and from exclusive NVP use to no use.

FINDINGS

Compared with the no-NVP scenario, the male (female) model projected 17.8% (19.3%) fewer PDs and 22.9% (26.6%) fewer LYL for the 1982 cohort and 5.4% (7.3%) fewer PDs and 7.9% (11.4%) fewer LYL for the 1962 cohort. These gains were sensitive to NVP use over time, age of initial NVP use, transitions from smoking to dual, exclusive NVP and no use and relative NVP mortality risks.

CONCLUSIONS

Nicotine vaping product (NVP) use in the United States is projected to have a net positive impact on population health over a wide range of plausible levels of NVP use, transitions to dual, exclusive NVP and no use and NVP risks. However, net impact is sensitive to parameter estimates.

The Minnesota SimSmoke Tobacco Control Policy Model of Smokeless Tobacco and Cigarette Use

INTRODUCTION

A previous Minnesota SimSmoke tobacco control policy model is extended to more recent years and to include smokeless tobacco use.

METHODS

Using data from the 1993 Tobacco Use Supplement and information on state policies, the Minnesota SimSmoke model was updated and extended to incorporate smokeless tobacco (both exclusive and dual use) and smokeless tobacco-attributable deaths. The model was then validated against the 2002, 2006/2007, and 2014/2015 Tobacco Use Supplement and the 1999, 2007, 2014, and 2018 Minnesota Adult Tobacco Survey and used to estimate the impact of policies implemented between 1993 and 2018. Analysis was conducted in April 2019.

RESULTS

The model validated well for cigarette and earlier smokeless tobacco use, but it predicted smokeless tobacco use less well in recent years. The model projected that male (female) smoking prevalence was 35% (36%) lower in relative terms by 2018 and 43% (44%) lower by 2040 owing to policies, with lesser reductions projected for male smokeless tobacco use. Tobacco-attributable deaths were reduced by 7,800 by 2018 and 46,900 by 2040. Price increases, primarily through taxes, were projected to have had the greatest impact on cigarette use followed by smoke-free air laws, cessation treatment policies, tobacco control campaign expenditures, and youth access enforcement. Similar effects were projected for smokeless tobacco use, except that smoke-free air laws had smaller effects.

CONCLUSIONS

As cigarettes remain the dominant form of nicotine delivery product, cigarette-oriented policies may be an effective means of reducing the use of all nicotine delivery products. However, noncigarette-oriented policies may also play an important role.

How to Think-Not Feel-about Tobacco Harm Reduction

INTRODUCTION

The debate over tobacco harm reduction (THR) has divided the tobacco control community into two camps, one expressing serious reservations about THR whereas the other believes that reduced-risk products like e-cigarettes will disrupt the cigarette market. The often emotional debate would benefit from dispassionate data-based evaluation of evidence.

METHODS

After briefly discussing harm reduction in public health and specifically in tobacco control, this paper identifies major issues concerning e-cigarettes and reviews relevant evidence. Issues include: e-cigarettes' risks compared to cigarette smoking; the effect of vaping on youth smoking; vaping's impact on adult smoking cessation; the net long-term public health implications of vaping; and differences in views on policy issues. The intent is to provide a broad overview of issues and evidence, directing readers to more detailed reviews of specific issues.

FINDINGS

Principal findings include the following: (1) while longitudinal studies suggest that vaping increases never-smoking young people's odds of trying smoking, national survey data indicate that adolescents' 30-day smoking prevalence decreased at an unprecedented rate precisely whereas vaping increased. Use of all other tobacco products also declined. (2) Recent population-level studies add evidence that vaping is increasing adult smoking cessation. (3) Vaping is likely to make a positive contribution to public health.

CONCLUSIONS

THR can be a complement to, not a substitute for, evidenced-based tobacco control interventions. Tobacco control professionals need to focus on objective assessment of and discussion about the potential costs and benefits of THR.

IMPLICATIONS

Participants on both sides of the divisive THR debate need to examine the complicated issues and evidence more objectively. This entails considering both the potential benefits and costs associated with reduced-risk products like e-cigarettes. Furthermore, it requires examining different kinds of evidence when considering specific issues. For example, those concerned by longitudinal study findings that vaping increases students' trial of cigarettes should consider US national survey evidence that youth smoking has decreased at an unprecedented rate. A review of the major issues suggests that the potential of vaping to assist adult smokers to quit outweighs the potential negatives.