Clinical course and mortality by etiology of liver cirrhosis in Sweden: a population based, long-term follow-up study of 1317 patients

Global Prevalence, Clinical Characteristics, Surveillance, Treatment Allocation, and Outcomes of Alcohol-Associated Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Although the burden of alcohol-associated hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is increasing with rising alcohol consumption, clinical presentation and outcomes of alcohol-associated HCC have not been systematically assessed. We aimed to determine the prevalence, clinical characteristics, surveillance rates, treatment allocation, and outcomes of alcohol-associated HCC.

METHODS

Medline and Embase were searched from inception to January 2023. Proportional data were analyzed using a generalized linear mixed model. The odds ratio (OR) or mean difference comparing alcohol-associated HCC and other causes was obtained with pairwise meta-analysis. Survival outcomes were evaluated using a pooled analysis of hazard ratios.

RESULTS

Of 4824 records identified, 55 articles (86,345 patients) were included. Overall, 30.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 24.0%-37.7%) of HCC was alcohol associated, with the highest proportion in Europe and the lowest in the Americas. People with alcohol-associated HCC were more likely male but were similar in age and comorbidities compared with other causes. A total of 20.8% (95% CI, 11.4%-34.9%) of people with alcohol-associated HCC underwent surveillance compared with 35.0%, 31.6%, and 21.4% in hepatitis B virus, hepatitis C virus, and metabolic dysfunction-associated HCC, respectively (all P < .05). Alcohol-associated HCC had a lower likelihood of Barcelona Clínic Liver Cancer C stage (0/A) (OR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.6-0.9; P = .018) and curative therapy (24.5% vs 33.9%; OR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.5-0.9; P = .003), and higher mortality (HR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.1-1.5; P = .012) when compared with other causes.

CONCLUSIONS

Alcohol-associated HCC is associated with lower surveillance rates, more advanced BCLC stage, lower likelihood of receiving curative therapy, and poorer survival. These data call for measures to reduce heavy alcohol consumption and improve strategies for effective HCC surveillance in high-risk individuals.

Treatment of alcohol use disorder in patients with alcohol-associated liver disease: Innovative approaches and a call to action

Alcohol-associated liver disease is currently the leading cause of liver transplantation and liver deaths both in Europe and the United States. Efficacious treatments exist for alcohol use disorder, but they are seldomly prescribed for patients who need them. Besides, the presence of liver cirrhosis can complicate pharmacological treatment choices. In this review, we discuss established and innovative treatment strategies to treat unhealthy alcohol use in patients with alcohol-associated liver disease. We also describe the experience of our own institutions, Hospital Universitari Germans Trias i Pujol in Badalona (Spain) and Yale-New Haven Health and Yale Medicine (Connecticut. United States of America).

Prediction of mortality and overt hepatic encephalopathy undergoing transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt: a retrospective cohort study

PURPOSE

Data on medium- and long-term efficacy and safety of Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) using Viatorr stents in Chinese patients are limited. This study aimed to evaluate the 5-year mortality and the incidence of overt hepatic encephalopathy (OHE) after Viatorr stent insertion, and construct a model to predict post-TIPS OHE preoperatively.

METHODS

One hundred thirty-two patients undergoing Viatorr stent insertion in our institution between August 2016 and December 2019 were included, and randomly divided into training and validation cohort at a 70/30 ratio. Patients were followed up until death or the end date of follow-up (December 31st, 2021). The primary end point was all-cause mortality, and the secondary end points were OHE, variceal rebleeding, recurrent ascites and shunt dysfunction.

RESULTS

The 1-, 2-, 3-, 4- and 5-year cumulative survival rates were 92.4%, 87.9%, 85.3%, 80.2% and 80.2%, respectively. Post-TIPS OHE and Child-Pugh grade were independent prognostic factors. The rates of variceal rebleeding, recurrent ascites, shunt dysfunction and post-TIPS OHE were 9.1%, 14.3%, 5.3% and 28.0%, respectively. The variables of nomogram predicting post-TIPS OHE included age, diabetes and ascites grade. The area under time-dependent receiver operation characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) in training and validation cohort were 0.806 and 0.751, respectively. The decision curve analysis (DCA) showed good net benefit both in training and validation cohort.

CONCLUSION

Post-TIPS OHE and Child-Pugh grade are independent prognostic factors for early mortality in cirrhosis patients, thus we construct a simple and convenient prediction model for post-TIPS OHE to identify high-risk patients preoperatively.

Global trends in hepatocellular carcinoma epidemiology: implications for screening, prevention and therapy

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) mortality rates are increasing globally, and particularly in the Western world. Cirrhosis remains the predominant risk factor for HCC. However, epidemiological shifts in the incidence of HCC from patients with virus-related liver disease to those with non-viral aetiologies, including alcohol-associated and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease, have important implications for prevention, surveillance and treatment. Hepatitis B vaccination and antiviral therapy for hepatitis B and C are effective for primary prevention of virus-related HCCs, but chemoprevention strategies for non-viral liver disease remain an unmet need. Emerging data suggest associations between aspirin, statins, metformin and coffee and reduced HCC incidence, although none has been proved to be causally related. Secondary prevention of HCC via semi-annual surveillance is associated with improvements in early detection and thus reduced mortality; however, current tools, including abdominal ultrasonography, have suboptimal sensitivity for the detection of early stage HCC, particularly in patients with obesity and/or non-viral liver disease. Promising blood-based or imaging-based surveillance strategies are emerging, although these approaches require further validation before adoption in clinical practice. In the interim, efforts should be focused on maximizing use of the existing surveillance tools given their prevalent underuse globally. Remarkable advances have been made in the treatment of HCC, including expanded eligibility for surgical therapies, improved patient selection for locoregional treatments and increased systemic treatment options, including immune-checkpoint inhibitors. In this Review, we discuss trends in the epidemiology of HCC and their implications for screening, prevention and therapy.

Time trends in mortality and life expectancy in 22,658 patients hospitalized with alcohol-associated cirrhosis: A nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND

The management of alcohol-associated cirrhosis has improved in the last decades, but whether the prognosis has changed over time is uncertain. We aimed to assess time trends in mortality and life expectancy in patients hospitalized with alcohol-associated cirrhosis.

METHODS

In this population-based cohort study, we used the Swedish national population and health registers to identify all patients with a first episode of in-hospital alcohol-associated cirrhosis from 1969 to 2019 (n = 22,658). Time trends in 1-year mortality were assessed with multivariable Cox regression. A flexible parametric model was fitted to evaluate loss in life expectancy.

RESULTS

Crude mortality was similar in the 2010s and 1980s (unadjusted HR = 1.00, 95% CI = 0.93-1.08, ptrend = 0.767). However, when adjusting for baseline characteristics, mortality was lower in the 2010s than in the 1980s (adjusted HR = 0.74, 95% CI = 0.68-0.80), including both liver- and nonliver-related mortalities. These results were consistent in men but not in women, where only nonliver mortality had decreased. The average loss in life expectancy for patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis compared with the general population was similar throughout the study period (in the 2010s: 14.3 y shorter (95% CI = 13.7-14.9) in men and 15.8 years shorter (95% CI = 14.9-16.7) in women).

CONCLUSION

Mortality in patients hospitalized with alcohol-associated cirrhosis has improved somewhat when accounting for baseline characteristics, but the loss in life expectancy remains substantial. This underscores the need for new therapeutic options and health policy interventions to further improve the dismal prognosis and life expectancy of patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis.

Role of inflammasomes and cytokines in immune dysfunction of liver cirrhosis

Liver cirrhosis develops as a result of persistent inflammation and liver injury. The prolonged inflammation triggers the buildup of fibrous tissue and regenerative nodules within the liver, leading to the distortion of the hepatic vascular structure and impaired liver function. Cirrhosis disrupts the ability of liver function to maintain homeostasis and hepatic immunosurveillance which causes immunological dysfunction in the body. In pathological conditions, the production of cytokines in the liver is carefully regulated by various cells in response to tissue stimulation. Cytokines and inflammasomes are the key regulators and systematically contribute to the development of cirrhosis which involves an inflammatory response. However, the crosstalk role of different cytokines in the cirrhosis progression is poorly understood. Tumour necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α), interleukin-1 (IL-1), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and interferon-gamma (IFN-γ), among others, are proinflammatory cytokines that contribute to liver cell necrosis, which in turn causes the development of fibrosis. While IL-10 exhibits a potent anti-inflammatory effect on the liver by inhibiting immune cell activation and neutralizing pro-inflammatory cytokine activity. Inflammasomes have also been implicated in the profibrotic processes of liver cirrhosis, as well as the production of chemokines such as CCL2/MCP-1. It is evident that inflammasomes have a role in the proinflammatory response seen in chronic liver illnesses. In conclusion, cirrhosis significantly impacts the immune system, leading to immunological dysfunction and alterations in both innate and acquired immunity. Proinflammatory cytokines like TNF-α, IL-1β, IL-6, and IFNγ are upregulated in cirrhosis, contributing to liver cell necrosis and fibrosis development. Managing cytokine-mediated inflammation and fibrosis is a key therapeutic approach to alleviate portal hypertension and its associated liver complications. This review attempted to focus largely on the role of immune dysfunction mediated by different cytokines and inflammasomes involved in the progression, regulation and development of liver cirrhosis.

The burden of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is rapidly growing in every region of the world from 1990 to 2019

BACKGROUND

The latest meta-analyses suggest NAFLD is increasing globally. Its limitations may preclude accurate estimates. We evaluated the global NAFLD burden and its' trends in prevalence and NAFLD liver-related mortality (LRM) by sex, age, region, and country over the past 3 decades using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study.

METHODS

Crude and age-standardized NAFLD prevalence and NAFLD-LRM rates were obtained for all-age individuals with NAFLD from 204 countries/territories between 1990 and 2019. Joinpoint trend analysis assessed time trends. Weighted average of the annual percent change (APC) over the period 1990-2019 and 2010-2019 were reported.

RESULTS

All-age (children and adults) crude global NAFLD prevalence increased:10.5% (561 million)-16.0% (1,236 million); an APC increase: + 1.47% (95% CI, 1.44%, 1.50%). Among adults (+20 y), crude NAFLD prevalence increased (1990: 17.6%, 2019:23.4%; APC: + 1.00%, 95% CI: 0.97%, 1.02%). In all-age groups, the crude NAFLD-LRM rate (per 100,000) increased (1990: 1.75%, 2019: 2.18%; APC: + 0.77% (95% CI, 0.70%, 0.84%). By Joinpoint analysis, from 2010 to 2019, worsening all-age trends in NAFLD prevalence and LRM were observed among 202 and 167 countries, respectively. In 2019, there were 1.24 billion NAFLD prevalent cases and 168,969 associated deaths; Asia regions accounted for 57.2% of all-age prevalent cases and 46.2% of all-age NAFLD-LRM. The highest all-age crude NAFLD prevalence rate was the Middle East and North Africa (LRM 26.5%); the highest all-age crude NAFLD-LRM rate was Central Latin America (5.90 per 100,000).

CONCLUSIONS

NAFLD is increasing globally in all-age groups-over 80% of countries experienced an increase in NAFLD and NAFLD-LRM. These data have important policy implications for affected countries and for global health.

Artificial Intelligence Applications in Hepatology

Over the past 2 decades, the field of hepatology has witnessed major developments in diagnostic tools, prognostic models, and treatment options making it one of the most complex medical subspecialties. Through artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning, computers are now able to learn from complex and diverse clinical datasets to solve real-world medical problems with performance that surpasses that of physicians in certain areas. AI algorithms are currently being implemented in liver imaging, interpretation of liver histopathology, noninvasive tests, prediction models, and more. In this review, we provide a summary of the state of AI in hepatology and discuss current challenges for large-scale implementation including some ethical aspects. We emphasize to the readers that most AI-based algorithms that are discussed in this review are still considered in early development and their utility and impact on patient outcomes still need to be assessed in future large-scale and inclusive studies. Our vision is that the use of AI in hepatology will enhance physician performance, decrease the burden and time spent on documentation, and reestablish the personalized patient-physician relationship that is of utmost importance for obtaining good outcomes.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Incidence in Alcohol-Associated Cirrhosis: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Alcohol is one of the leading causes of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, pooled estimates of HCC incidence in alcohol-associated cirrhosis have not been evaluated systematically. We performed a pooled analysis of time-to-event data to provide robust estimates for the incidence of HCC in alcohol-associated cirrhosis.

METHODS

Medline, Embase, Cochrane Central Register, Scopus, and Web of Science were searched from inception to August 2021. Individual patient data were reconstructed from published Kaplan-Meier curves, and a pooled analysis of cumulative HCC incidence was performed using a random-effects model.

RESULTS

We screened 5022 articles and included 18 studies (148,333 patients). In the pooled analysis, the cumulative incidence of HCC in alcohol-associated cirrhosis at 1, 5, and 10 years among studies that accounted for the competing risk of death without HCC was 1%, 3%, and 9%, respectively. A secondary analysis by traditional meta-analysis determined that the HCC incidence rate was higher in cohorts enrolled in a HCC surveillance program (18.6 vs 4.8 per 1000 person-years; P = .001) vs those who were not enrolled in a surveillance program. Meta-regression showed that diabetes, smoking, variceal bleeding, and hepatic decompensation were associated with a higher risk of HCC.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis determined that the 5- and 10- year cumulative risk of HCC in alcohol-associated cirrhosis was 3% and 9%, respectively, with a higher incidence in cohorts that were enrolled in a HCC surveillance program. These data should be validated further in large prospective studies, and may have important implications for HCC screening and surveillance among patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis.

Malnutrition and its association with the mortality in liver cirrhosis; a prospective nutritional assessment in two referral centers in Iran

INTRODUCTION

Liver cirrhosis is a chronic condition caused by different conditions including viral infection, alcoholism, and autoimmune disorders. Malnutrition is one of the complications of liver cirrhosis that is associated with poor outcomes. This study aimed to determine the association of malnutrition with mortality in liver cirrhosis patients.

METHODS

This prospective cross-sectional study was conducted on liver cirrhosis patients who were referred to two referral centers for liver disease in Tehran, Iran. Patients' information including demographics (age, gender, etiology of cirrhosis, alcohol and smoking history) in addition to triceps skinfold (TSF), mid-arm circumference (MAC), Child-Pugh score and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score were recorded in all patients. Patients were classified into A, B, and C categories based on the Subjective Global Assessment (SGA) questionnaire.

RESULTS

Among 121 participants (68.6%) were males and the mean age was 54.78. Viral infections were the most common etiology and 65 patients (56.2%) were in the classification A of Child-Pugh Score. TSF (P = 0.001) and MAC (P = 0.003) were significantly lower in SGA class C. The survival rate in SGA class C was significantly lower than other groups (P < 0.001; log-rank test). The risk of mortality in patients with SGA class A and B was 85% (HR value: 0.15; 95% CI: 0.02-0.87; P = 0.03) and 76% (HR value: 0.24; 95% CI: 0.06-0.83; P = 0.02) lower than those with SGA class C.

CONCLUSION

Anthropometric and SGA measure are two easy and accessible methods for assessing malnutrition and mortality in liver cirrhosis patients.

Extra-hepatic morbidity and mortality in alcohol-related liver disease: Systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Alcohol use increases the risk of many conditions in addition to liver disease; patients with alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) are therefore at risk from both extra-hepatic and hepatic disease.

AIMS

This review synthesises information about non-liver-related mortality in persons with ALD.

METHODS

A systematic literature review was performed to identify studies describing non-liver outcomes in ALD. Information about overall non-liver mortality was extracted from included studies and sub-categorised into major causes: cardiovascular disease (CVD), non-liver cancer and infection. Single-proportion meta-analysis was done to calculate incidence rates (events/1000 patient-years) and relative risks (RR) compared with control populations.

RESULTS

Thirty-seven studies describing 50 302 individuals with 155 820 patient-years of follow-up were included. Diabetes, CVD and obesity were highly prevalent amongst included patients (5.4%, 10.4% and 20.8% respectively). Outcomes varied across the spectrum of ALD: in alcohol-related fatty liver the rate of non-liver mortality was 43.4/1000 patient-years, whereas in alcoholic hepatitis the rate of non-liver mortality was 22.5/1000 patient-years. The risk of all studied outcomes was higher in ALD compared with control populations: The RR of death from CVD was 2.4 (1.6-3.8), from non-hepatic cancer 2.2 (1.6-2.9) and from infection 8.2 (4.7-14.3).

CONCLUSION

Persons with ALD are at high risk of death from non-liver causes such as cardiovascular disease and non-hepatic cancer.

Another Step Toward Hepatitis C Elimination: An Economic Evaluation of an Irish National Birth Cohort Testing Program

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of offering once-off birth cohort testing for hepatitis C virus (HCV) to people in Ireland born between 1965 and 1985, the cohort with the highest reported prevalence of undiagnosed chronic HCV infection.

METHODS

Systematic and opportunistic HCV birth cohort testing programs, implemented over a 4-year timeframe, were compared with the current practice of population risk-based testing only in a closed-cohort decision tree and Markov model hybrid over a lifetime time horizon. Outcomes were expressed in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Costs were presented from the health system's perspective in 2020 euro (€). Uncertainty was assessed via deterministic, probabilistic, scenario, and threshold analyses.

RESULTS

In the base case, systematic testing yielded the largest cost and health benefits, followed by opportunistic testing and risk-based testing. Compared with risk-based testing, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for opportunistic testing was €14 586 (95% confidence interval €4185-€33 527) per QALY gained. Compared with opportunistic testing, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for systematic testing was €16 827 (95% confidence interval €5106-€38 843) per QALY gained. These findings were robust across a range of sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Both systematic and opportunistic birth cohort testing would be considered an efficient use of resources, but systematic testing was the optimal strategy at willingness-to-pay threshold values typically used in Ireland. Although cost-effective, any decision to introduce birth cohort testing for HCV (in Ireland or elsewhere) must be balanced with considerations regarding the feasibility and budget impact of implementing a national testing program given high initial costs and resource use.

Global, regional, and national burden of hepatitis B, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Combating viral hepatitis is part of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and WHO has put forth hepatitis B elimination targets in its Global Health Sector Strategy on Viral Hepatitis (WHO-GHSS) and Interim Guidance for Country Validation of Viral Hepatitis Elimination (WHO Interim Guidance). We estimated the global, regional, and national prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV), as well as mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to HBV, as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. This included estimates for 194 WHO member states, for which we compared our estimates to WHO elimination targets.

METHODS

The primary data sources were population-based serosurveys, claims and hospital discharges, cancer registries, vital registration systems, and published case series. We estimated chronic HBV infection and the burden of HBV-related diseases, defined as an aggregate of cirrhosis due to hepatitis B, liver cancer due to hepatitis B, and acute hepatitis B. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian mixed-effects meta-regression tool, to estimate the prevalence of chronic HBV infection, cirrhosis, and aetiological proportions of cirrhosis. We used mortality-to-incidence ratios modelled with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to estimate the incidence of liver cancer. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) model, a tool that selects models and covariates on the basis of out-of-sample performance, to estimate mortality due to cirrhosis, liver cancer, and acute hepatitis B.

FINDINGS

In 2019, the estimated global, all-age prevalence of chronic HBV infection was 4·1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 to 4·5), corresponding to 316 million (284 to 351) infected people. There was a 31·3% (29·0 to 33·9) decline in all-age prevalence between 1990 and 2019, with a more marked decline of 76·8% (76·2 to 77·5) in prevalence in children younger than 5 years. HBV-related diseases resulted in 555 000 global deaths (487 000 to 630 000) in 2019. The number of HBV-related deaths increased between 1990 and 2019 (by 5·9% [-5·6 to 19·2]) and between 2015 and 2019 (by 2·9% [-5·9 to 11·3]). By contrast, all-age and age-standardised death rates due to HBV-related diseases decreased during these periods. We compared estimates for 2019 in 194 WHO locations to WHO-GHSS 2020 targets, and found that four countries achieved a 10% reduction in deaths, 15 countries achieved a 30% reduction in new cases, and 147 countries achieved a 1% prevalence in children younger than 5 years. As of 2019, 68 of 194 countries had already achieved the 2030 target proposed in WHO Interim Guidance of an all-age HBV-related death rate of four per 100 000.

INTERPRETATION

The prevalence of chronic HBV infection declined over time, particularly in children younger than 5 years, since the introduction of hepatitis B vaccination. HBV-related death rates also decreased, but HBV-related death counts increased as a result of population growth, ageing, and cohort effects. By 2019, many countries had met the interim seroprevalence target for children younger than 5 years, but few countries had met the WHO-GHSS interim targets for deaths and new cases. Progress according to all indicators must be accelerated to meet 2030 targets, and there are marked disparities in burden and progress across the world. HBV interventions, such as vaccination, testing, and treatment, must be strategically supported and scaled up to achieve elimination.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The burden of liver cirrhosis in mortality: Results from the global burden of disease study

Background

Liver cirrhosis-related death is a serious threat worldwide. The number of studies exploring the mortality trend of cirrhosis caused by specific etiologies was limited. This study aimed to demonstrate the pattern and trend based on the data of global burden of disease (GBD).

Methods

The data of cirrhosis mortality were collected from the GBD 2017. The Age standardized mortality rate (ASR) and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) were used to estimate the temporal trend of liver cirrhosis mortality by etiologies, regions, sociodemographic index (SDI), and sexes.

Results

Globally, mortality cases of cirrhosis increased by 47.15%. Although the global ASR of cirrhosis mortality remained stable during this period, the temporal trend varied in etiologies. The ASR of mortality caused by hepatitis C virus (HCV), alcohol consumption, and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) increased with an EAPC of 0.17 (95% CI, 0.14-0.20), 0.20 (95% CI, 0.16-0.24), 1.00 (95% CI, 0.97-1.04), respectively. A decreasing trend of ASR was found among the causes of hepatitis B virus (BV) and other causes. The increased pattern was heterogeneous worldwide. The most pronounced increase trend was found in middle-high SDI regions and Eastern Europe. Contrarily, the most pronounced decrease trend was found in low SDI regions and Western Sub-Saharan Africa.

Conclusion

Cirrhosis is still a public health problem. The growth trend of cirrhosis mortality caused by HCV was slowed by promoting direct-acting antiviral therapy. Unfortunately, we observed an unfavorable trend in etiologies for alcohol consumption and NASH, which indicated that more targeted and specific strategies should be established to limit alcohol consumption and promote healthy lifestyles in high-risk countries, especially in middle-high SDI regions and Eastern Europe.

Myeloid cells in alcoholic liver diseases: Mechanism and prospect

Alcoholic liver disease (ALD) is a leading chronic liver disease in which immune cells play a vital role. Myeloid cells have been extensively studied in ALD, including granulocytes, macrophages, monocytes, and dendritic cells, which are involved in the occurrence and progression of steatosis, inflammation, fibrosis, and eventual cirrhosis. These cells can be popularly targeted and regulated by factors from different sources, including cytokines secreted by other cells, extracellular vesicles, and substances in serum—for example, infiltration of monocytes or neutrophils, activation of Kupffer cells, and polarization of macrophages. These processes can affect and change the function and phenotype of myeloid cells. Here we mainly review the key mediators that affect the infiltration and function of mainly myeloid cells in ALD as well as their regulatory mechanisms on target cells, which may provide novel immunotherapeutic approaches. The single-cell multimodal omics of myeloid cells is also discussed to help transform them into basic research or therapeutic strategy of ALD clinically.

Value appropriation in hepatitis C

BACKGROUND

In 2015, the Swedish government in an unprecedented move decided to allocate 150 million € to provide funding for new drugs for hepatitis C. This was triggered by the introduction of the first second generation of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) promising higher cure rates and reduced side effects. The drugs were cost-effective but had a prohibitive budget impact. Subsequently, additional products have entered the market leading to reduction in prices and expansions of the eligible patient base.

METHODS

We estimated the social surplus generated by the new DAAs in Stockholm, Sweden, for the years 2014-2019. The actual use and cost of the drugs was based on registry data. Effects on future health care costs, indirect costs and QALY gains were estimated using a Markov model based primarily on Swedish data and using previous generations of interferon-based therapies as the counterfactual.

RESULTS

A considerable social surplus was generated, 15% of which was appropriated by the producers whose share fell rapidly over time as prices fell. Most of the consumer surplus was generated by QALY gains, although 10% was from reduced indirect costs. QALY gains increased less rapidly than the number of treated patients as the eligibility criteria was loosened.

CONCLUSIONS

The transfer of funds from the government to the regions helped generate substantial surplus for both consumers and producers with indirect costs playing an important role. The funding model may serve as a model for the financing of innovative treatments in the future.

Noninvasive proteomic biomarkers for alcohol-related liver disease

Alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) is a major cause of liver-related death worldwide, yet understanding of the three key pathological features of the disease-fibrosis, inflammation and steatosis-remains incomplete. Here, we present a paired liver-plasma proteomics approach to infer molecular pathophysiology and to explore the diagnostic and prognostic capability of plasma proteomics in 596 individuals (137 controls and 459 individuals with ALD), 360 of whom had biopsy-based histological assessment. We analyzed all plasma samples and 79 liver biopsies using a mass spectrometry (MS)-based proteomics workflow with short gradient times and an enhanced, data-independent acquisition scheme in only 3 weeks of measurement time. In plasma and liver biopsy tissues, metabolic functions were downregulated whereas fibrosis-associated signaling and immune responses were upregulated. Machine learning models identified proteomics biomarker panels that detected significant fibrosis (receiver operating characteristic-area under the curve (ROC-AUC), 0.92, accuracy, 0.82) and mild inflammation (ROC-AUC, 0.87, accuracy, 0.79) more accurately than existing clinical assays (DeLong's test, P < 0.05). These biomarker panels were found to be accurate in prediction of future liver-related events and all-cause mortality, with a Harrell's C-index of 0.90 and 0.79, respectively. An independent validation cohort reproduced the diagnostic model performance, laying the foundation for routine MS-based liver disease testing.

Comparison of Risk Factors for Cholangiocarcinoma and Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Prospective Cohort Study in Korean Adults

Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA), especially intrahepatic CCA, is known to share several risk factors with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and liver cirrhosis has been proposed as a common pathogenic factor. We aimed to identify the risk factors of CCA and to examine differences in risk factors between CCA and HCC. We followed 510,217 Korean adults who underwent health checkups during 2002−2003 until 2013 via linkage to national hospital discharge records. Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated after adjustment for confounders. During the mean follow-up of 10.5 years, 1388 and 2920 individuals were diagnosed with CCA and HCC, respectively. Choledocholithiasis (HR = 13.7; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 7.58−24.88) was the strongest risk factor for CCA, followed by cholelithiasis (HR = 2.94) and hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection (HR = 2.71). Two of the strongest risk factors for HCC—liver cirrhosis (HR = 1.29; 95% CI = 0.48−3.45) and hepatitis C virus infection (HR = 1.89; 95% CI = 0.49−7.63)—were not significantly associated with the risk of CCA. HBV infection and diabetes increased the risk of both HCC and CCA, but the HRs were lower for CCA than for HCC (Pheterogeneity < 0.001 for HBV; Pheterogeneity = 0.001 for diabetes). The magnitudes of the effects of age, sex, obesity, alcohol consumption, and smoking on the development of both cancers were different (Pheterogeneity < 0.05 for each variable). In conclusion, choledocholithiasis, cholelithiasis, HBV, older age, male sex, diabetes, smoking, alcohol drinking, and obesity were found to be potential risk factors of CCA. Liver cirrhosis did not increase the risk of CCA. The magnitudes of the potential effects of common risk factors were generally different between CCA and HCC.

Differences in complications between hepatitis B-related cirrhosis and alcohol-related cirrhosis

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to investigate the differences in complications between hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related and alcohol-related cirrhoses.

METHODS

Medical records of patients with HBV-related and alcohol-related cirrhoses treated from January 2014 to January 2021 were, retrospectively, reviewed. The unadjusted rate and adjusted risk of cirrhotic complications between the two groups were assessed.

RESULTS

The rates of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and hypersplenism were higher in HBV-related cirrhosis (both P < 0.05), whereas the rates of hepatic encephalopathy (HE) and acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) were higher in alcohol-related cirrhosis (both P < 0.05). After adjusting for potential confounders, HBV-related cirrhotic patients had higher risks of HCC (odds ratio [OR] = 34.06, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.61-251.77, P = 0.001) and hypersplenism (OR = 2.29, 95% CI: 1.18-4.42, P = 0.014), whereas alcohol-related cirrhotic patients had higher risks of HE (OR = 0.22, 95% CI: 0.06-0.73, P = 0.013) and ACLF (OR = 0.30, 95% CI: 0.14-0.73, P = 0.020).

CONCLUSION

Cirrhotic patients with different etiologies had different types of complications: HBV-related cirrhotic patients exhibited increased risks of HCC and hypersplenism and alcohol-related cirrhotic patients more readily developing HE and ACLF.

Safety of anti-TNF agents in patients with compensated cirrhosis: a case-control study

BACKGROUND

There is limited data on the use of anti-TNF agents in patients with concomitant cirrhosis. The aim of this study is to assess the safety of anti-TNF agents in patients with compensated cirrhosis who used these medications for the treatment of an underlying rheumatologic condition or IBD.

METHODS

Multicenter, retrospective, matched, case-control study. A one to three case-control match was performed. Adults who received anti-TNF therapy were matched to three adults with cirrhosis who did not receive anti-TNF therapy. Patients were matched for etiology of cirrhosis, MELD-Na and age. Primary outcome was the development of hepatic decompensation. Secondary outcomes included development of infectious complications, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), extra-hepatic malignancy, and mortality.

RESULTS

Eighty patients with cirrhosis who received anti-TNF agents were matched with 240 controls. Median age was 57.2 years. Median MELD-Na for the anti-TNF cohort was seven and median MELD-Na for the controls was eight. The most common etiology of cirrhosis was NAFLD. Anti-TNF therapy did not increase risk of decompensation (HR: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.64-1.30, p = 0.61) nor influence the time to development of a decompensating event. Anti-TNF therapy did not increase the risk of hepatic mortality or need for liver transplantation (HR: 1.18, 95% CI: 0.55-2.53, p = 0.67). Anti-TNF therapy was not associated with an increased risk of serious infection (HR: 1.21, 95% CI: 0.68-2.17, p = 0.52), HCC (OR: 0.45, 95% CI: 0.13-1.57, p = 0.21), or extra-hepatic malignancy (OR: 0.82, 95% CI: 0.29-2.30, p = 0.71).

CONCLUSIONS

Anti-TNF agents in patients with compensated cirrhosis does not influence the risk of decompensation, serious infections, transplant free survival, or malignancy.

Etiologies and outcomes of cirrhosis in a large contemporary cohort

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Patients with liver cirrhosis have high mortality, often estimated by the Child-Pugh or MELD scores. Etiologies of cirrhosis are rapidly shifting, and it is unclear if these scores perform similarly across subgroups of patients. Here, we describe the characteristics and outcomes of a large contemporary cohort of patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

This was a cohort study with retrospectively collected data. All patients with a verified diagnosis of cirrhosis during 2004-2017 at the Karolinska University Hospital, Sweden, were identified. Data at baseline to calculate Child-Pugh, MELD and confounders for mortality was collected. Competing risk regression was used to estimate risk for outcomes, adjusted for age, sex, baseline Child-Pugh score, etiology of cirrhosis and type 2 diabetes.

RESULTS

We identified 2609 patients, with a median age of 61 years, and 68% men. Etiologies of cirrhosis shifted during the study period, with a -29% relative decrease in hepatitis C-cirrhosis and a + 154% increase in cirrhosis due to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. The highest overall mortality was seen in patients with alcohol-related cirrhosis. MELD and Child-Pugh scores predicted 3-month and 1 to 2-year mortality reasonably well, but with a lower predictive performance in alcohol-related cirrhosis. Men were more likely than women to receive a liver transplant (sHR = 1.39, 95%CI = 1.08-1.78).

CONCLUSIONS

We confirm previous findings of a rapid shift in the etiologies of cirrhosis. Differences in sex in regard to access to liver transplantation deserve further attention.

We need stronger evidence for (or against) hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance

Current guidelines from EASL recommend that most patients with cirrhosis are offered surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but fewer patients than expected actually receive it. The recommendation is based on observational studies and simulations, not randomised trials. In this opinion piece we argue that a randomised trial of HCC surveillance vs. no surveillance is necessary and feasible, and we believe that clinician and patient participation in HCC surveillance would be better if it were based on trial results demonstrating its value.

Complications and management of elective endoscopic cyanoacrylate injection with lauromacrogol for gastric varices

OBJECTIVE

To report the complications and evaluate the risk factors of elective endoscopic cyanoacrylate injection with lauromacrogol for gastric varices in cirrhotic patients.

METHODS

A total of 583 elective endoscopic tissue adhesives procedures were performed in 439 patients in our hospital from January 2015 to December 2016. The clinical characteristics and complications were retrospectively collected and evaluated.

RESULTS

The median age was 56 ± 11 years, and 290 (66.1%) patients were male. The main etiology of liver cirrhosis was hepatitis virus (63.3%). Two hundred fifty-nine (59.0%) patients were classified as Child-Pugh Class A. Bleeding occurred in 44 patients (7.5%) during procedures. Two patients developed distant embolism (0.5%; one pulmonary, one cerebra). In perioperative period, fever was a common complication; however, only 16 cases had high fever and one case had sepsis. Bleeding was observed in 7 (1.2%) patients. Overall incidence of the major perioperative complication was 3.8%. The major postoperative complication rate was 10.4% (60/582, 26 rebleeds, 27 ascites increase, 12 new-onset portal vein thrombosis). The complication-related death was 1.6% (one death from embolism, five deaths from rebleeding, one death from refractory ascites). Injection point was the only factor related to the major perioperative complications [odds ratio (OR) = 1.581, 95% CI, 1.086-2.301; P < 0.05]. Etiology of cirrhosis and injection point were independent risk factors of major postoperative complications (OR = 1.830, 95% CI, 1.005-3.331, P = 0.048; OR = 1.373, 95% CI, 1.089-1.731, P = 0.007).

CONCLUSION

The incidence of complications after elective endoscopic cyanoacrylate injection with lauromacrogol for gastric varices was low. The injection point was the risk factor for both perioperative and postoperative complications.

A nationwide population-based prospective study of cirrhosis in Iceland

Background & Aims

The incidence of cirrhosis in Iceland has been the lowest in the world with only 3 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. Alcohol consumption has almost doubled in Iceland from 1980 to 2016. Obesity has also risen and hepatitis C virus has spread among people who inject drugs in Iceland. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of these risk factors on the incidence and aetiology of cirrhosis in Iceland.

Methods

The study included all patients diagnosed with cirrhosis for the first time during 2010–2015. Diagnosis was based on liver histology or 2 of 4 criteria: cirrhosis on imaging, ascites, varices, and/or elevated INR.

Results

Overall, 157 patients were diagnosed, 105 (67%) males, mean age 61 years. The overall incidence was 9.7 cases per 100,000 inhabitants annually. Alcohol was the only underlying cause in 48/157 (31%), non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in 34/157(22%), and alcohol and hepatitis C together in 23/157(15%) were the most common causes. Only 6% of patients had an unknown cause of cirrhosis. Upon diagnosis, the median model for end-stage liver disease score was 11 (IQR 8–15), 53% were of Child-Pugh class A whereas 61 (39%) had ascites, 11% encephalopathy, and 8% variceal bleeding. In all, 25% of deaths were from HCC and 25% from liver failure.

Conclusion

A major increase in incidence of cirrhosis has occurred in Iceland associated with increases in alcohol consumption, obesity, and hepatitis C. In a high proportion NAFLD was the aetiology and very few had unknown cause of cirrhosis. The highest death rate was from HCC.

Lay summary

In a nationwide population-based study from Iceland, including all patients diagnosed with cirrhosis of the liver over a period of 5 years, we found the incidence of new cases had increased 3-fold compared with a previous study 20 years ago. The increase is attributable to increased alcohol consumption, an epidemic of diabetes and obesity, and infection with the hepatitis C virus. Furthermore, we found that with thorough investigations, a specific cause for cirrhosis could be found in 94% of patients. Patients with cirrhosis frequently die of liver cancer and other complications related to their liver disease.

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The incidence of cirrhosis in Iceland has been the lowest among western countries.

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In this nationwide prospective study, all patients diagnosed with cirrhosis of the liver in Iceland over a period of 5 years were included.

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The incidence of cirrhosis had increased 3-fold compared with a study 10 years earlier owing to increased alcohol consumption, obesity, and hepatitis C.

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With thorough investigations a specific cause for cirrhosis could be found in 94% of patients.

Mortality in biopsy-proven alcohol-related liver disease: a population-based nationwide cohort study of 3453 patients

OBJECTIVE

Patients with alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) are at increased risk of death, but studies have rarely investigated the significance of histological severity or estimated relative risks compared with a general population. We examined mortality in a nationwide cohort of biopsy-proven ALD.

DESIGN

Population-based cohort study in Sweden comparing 3453 individuals with an International Classification of Disease (ICD) code for ALD and a liver biopsy from 1969 to 2017 with 16 535 matched general population individuals. Swedish national registers were used to ascertain overall and disease-specific mortality, starting follow-up at the latest of first ICD diagnosis or liver biopsy plus 3 months. Cox regression adjusted for relevant confounders was used to estimate HRs in ALD and histopathological subgroups.

RESULTS

Median age at diagnosis was 58 years, 65% were men and 52% had cirrhosis at baseline. Five-year cumulative mortality was 40.9% in patients with ALD compared with 5.8% in reference individuals. The risk for overall mortality was significantly increased (adjusted HR (aHR)=4.70, 95% CI 4.35 to 5.08). The risk of liver-related death was particularly high (43% of all deaths, aHR=167.6, 95% CI 101.7 to 276.3). Mortality was significantly increased also in patients with ALD without cirrhosis and was highest in the first year after baseline but persisted after ≥10 years of follow-up (aHR=2.74, 95% CI 2.37 to 3.16).

CONCLUSION

Individuals with biopsy-proven ALD have a near fivefold increased risk of death compared with the general population. Individuals with ALD without cirrhosis were also at increased risk of death, reaffirming the need to increase vigilance in the management of these individuals.

The Use of Administrative Data to Investigate the Population Burden of Hepatic Encephalopathy

Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is a devastating complication of cirrhosis with an increasing footprint in global public health. Although the condition is defined using a careful history and examination, we cannot accurately measure the true impact of HE relying on data collected exclusively from clinical studies. For this reason, administrative data sources are necessary to study the population burden of HE. Administrative data is generated with each health care encounter to account for health care resource utilization and is extracted into a dataset for the secondary purpose of research. In order to utilize such data for valid analysis, several pitfalls must be avoided—specifically, selecting the particular database capable of meeting the needs of the study’s aims, paying careful attention to the limits of each given database, and ensuring validity of case definition for HE specific to the dataset. In this review, we summarize the types of data available for and the results of administrative data studies of HE.

Risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in Danish outpatients with alcohol-related cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Accurate estimates of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk in patients with cirrhosis are important to guide surveillance strategies. We described HCC risk among outpatients with alcohol-related cirrhosis and contrasted the risk of death from HCC with the risk of death from variceal bleeding or trauma.

METHODS

This was a nationwide, registry-based historical cohort study between 2006 and 2018. We included all Danish outpatients with a hospital diagnosis of alcohol-related cirrhosis, except those with cancer, those with chronic viral hepatitis or autoimmune liver disease, and those older than 80 years. We followed them through 2018 and described the cumulative risk of HCC and the cumulative risk of death from HCC, variceal bleeding, or trauma.

RESULTS

Of the 4,553 patients included, 181 developed HCC and 2,274 died. The cumulative risk of HCC was 0.9% (95% CI 0.7-1.3) after 1 year, 3.6% (95% CI 3.0-4.2) after 5 years, and 6.0% (95% CI 5.1-7.0) after 10 years, or approximately 0.7% per year. Male sex, older age, and decompensated cirrhosis predicted a higher HCC risk. After 10 years, 6.9% of deaths in the cohort could be attributed to HCC, whereas 6.5% could be attributed to variceal bleeding, and 5.0% to trauma.

CONCLUSIONS

In 2006-2018, Danish outpatients with alcohol-related cirrhosis had an HCC risk of 0.7% per year, and they were nearly as likely to die from variceal bleeding or from trauma as from HCC. The implications are that many potentially harmful examinations are required for every HCC found through surveillance, so interventions targeting the prevention of other causes of death might be more cost-effective.

LAY SUMMARY

We described the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC, the most common form of liver cancer originating in the liver) in Danish outpatients with cirrhosis due to harmful alcohol consumption. Accurate data on that risk are important for patient counselling and decisions about screening for HCC. The risk was about 0.7% per year, which is lower than might be expected and suggests that many potentially harmful screening examinations are required for every HCC found through surveillance.

Comparing the Prognosis of Patient with Alcohol and Nonalcohol-Associated Cirrhosis with Bacteremia

Aims

Patients with liver cirrhosis are more susceptible to bacteremia and more likely to have a poor prognosis in comparison to healthy individuals. Studies on the role of alcohol in cirrhotic patients with bacteremia are limited. Our study aimed to investigate the clinical characteristics and prognostic differences between the patients with alcohol and non-alcohol-associated cirrhosis with bacteremia.

Methods

A single-center, retrospective cohort study was conducted among adult patients who presented to the emergency department from January 2015 to December 2018. All patients diagnosed with liver cirrhosis and bacteremia were enrolled and divided into alcohol-associated and non-alcohol-associated groups according to the etiology of their cirrhosis. We compared their clinical characteristics, laboratory results, microbiological data, and infection source as well as outcome measurements between the two groups.

Results

A total of 112 cirrhotic patients with bacteremia (alcohol-associated: 67; non-alcohol-associated: 45) were eligible for this study. In comparison with the non-alcohol-associated group, patients in the alcohol-associated group had a significantly higher rate of intensive care unit transfer (41.8% vs. 22.2%, P = 0.04), septic shock occurrence (56.7% vs. 35.6%, P = 0.04) and 30-day mortality risk (37.3% vs. 15.6%, P = 0.02). Moreover, alcohol-associated cirrhosis and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score were independent predictors of 30-day mortality in cirrhotic patients with bacteremia.

Conclusions

The etiology of liver cirrhosis influences the outcomes of patients with bacteremia as well as the severity of their cirrhosis.

Liver fibrosis: Pathophysiology and clinical implications

Liver fibrosis is a clinically significant finding that has major impacts on patient morbidity and mortality. The mechanism of fibrosis involves many different cellular pathways, but the major cell type involved appears to be hepatic stellate cells. Many liver diseases, including Hepatitis B, C, and fatty liver disease cause ongoing hepatocellular damage leading to liver fibrosis. No matter the cause of liver disease, liver-related mortality increases exponentially with increasing fibrosis. The progression to cirrhosis brings more dramatic mortality and higher incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma. Fibrosis can also affect outcomes following liver transplantation in adult and pediatric patients and require retransplantation. Drugs exist to treat Hepatitis B and C that reverse fibrosis in patients with those viral diseases, but there are currently no therapies to directly treat liver fibrosis. Several mouse models of chronic liver diseases have been successfully reversed using novel drug targets with current therapies focusing mostly on prevention of myofibroblast activation. Further research in these areas could lead to development of drugs to treat fibrosis, which will have invaluable impact on patient survival. This article is categorized under: Metabolic Diseases > Molecular and Cellular Physiology.

Hepatoprotective effects and mechanisms of Ixeris denticulate water extract on liver cirrhosis in experimental rat

BACKGROUND

To explore the protective effect and mechanisms of Ixeris denticulate water extract (IDWE) in the development of liver cirrhosis in experimental rat.

METHODS

Sixty rats were randomly divided into five groups: control group, model group and IDWE (2, 4 and 8 g/kg) treatment groups. Alanine transferase (ALT), aspartate transaminase (AST), albumin (ALB), tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α), Interleukin (IL)-6 and IL-8 in serum and superoxide dismutase (SOD), malondialdehyde (MDA) in liver tissue were evaluated, respectively. The liver index, liver morphology and liver histopathological analysis were detected as a supportive data. The liver protein expression of Bcl-2 and Bax were assessed by western blot, and NF-κB p65 protein expression was determined by immunohistochemistry analysis.

RESULTS

The result showed that a significantly decrease in the levels of serum AST, ALT and serum inflammatory factors TNF-α, IL-6 and IL-8 in IDWE-treated rats. The levels of serum ALB and SOD in liver tissue were markedly increased after IDWE treated, compared with model rats. Furthermore, IDWE-treated group also exhibited a down-regulated protein expression of NF-κB p65 and Bax, up-regulated Bcl-2 protein expression.

CONCLUSIONS

IDWE could effectively alleviate the course of liver cirrhosis in rat model, which may be a potent hepatoprotective agent in clinical therapy in the future.

Epidemiology of Hepatic Encephalopathy

Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is a complex condition with multiple causes each with varying degrees of severity. HE negatively impacts patients' quality of life, and it is associated with significant burdens to patients and their caregivers. The prevalence of cirrhosis, the most common risk factor for HE, has steadily increased during recent years. In turn, an upsurge in the clinical and health care burdens related to HE is expected in the upcoming years. This article provides a comprehensive review of the epidemiology of HE.

Cost-effectiveness of integrating gut microbiota analysis into hospitalisation prediction in cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Admissions in cirrhosis are expensive and often unpredictable based on purely clinical variables. Admissions could be related to complications associated with gut microbial changes, which can improve prognostication. However, the cost-effectiveness is unclear.

AIMS

Determine cost-effectiveness of adding gut microbiota analysis to clinical parameters in prediction and subsequent reduction of admissions in cirrhosis.

METHODS

Using a Markov model of 1000 cirrhosis patients over 90 days, we modeled microbiota testing using 16srRNA ($250/sample), low-depth ($350/sample) and high-depth ($650/sample) metagenomics added to standard-of-care (SOC) for prevention of admissions using standard outcome costs and rates of development. We generated quality of life years (QALY) and Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) for the base scenarios and performed sensitivity analyses by varying costs for outcomes (transplant, death, admission) and admission rates (40%, range 25%-60%).

RESULTS

Using fixed costs of outcomes and outcome rates, microbiota analysis was cost-saving ($47K-$97K) at $250 and $350/sample if admissions were reduced by 5%over SOC and >10% with $650/sample. When costs of LT, death and admissions were varied, these cost-savings remained robust provided there was >2.1% reduction (range 1.3%-3.2%) for $250/sample, >2.9% (range 1.8%-4.4%) for $350/sample and >5.4% (range 3.3%-8.2%) for $650/sample. These cost-savings remained robust even when the assumed admission rate was varied for all sample cost values.

CONCLUSIONS

Gut microbiota analysis is cost-effective for predicting and potentially preventing 90-day admissions in cirrhosis over current standard of care. This cost-saving remained robust even after sensitivity analyses that varied the background admission rates.