The shaping of genetic variation in edge-of-range populations under past and future climate change

Population genomics of the white-beaked dolphin (Lagenorhynchus albirostris): Implications for conservation amid climate-driven range shifts

Climate change is rapidly affecting species distributions across the globe, particularly in the North Atlantic. For highly mobile and elusive cetaceans, the genetic data needed to understand population dynamics are often scarce. Cold-water obligate species such as the white-beaked dolphin (Lagenorhynchus albirostris) face pressures from habitat shifts due to rising sea surface temperatures in addition to other direct anthropogenic threats. Unravelling the genetic connectivity between white-beaked dolphins across their range is needed to understand the extent to which climate change and anthropogenic pressures may impact species-wide genetic diversity and identify ways to protect remaining habitat. We address this by performing a population genomic assessment of white-beaked dolphins using samples from much of their contemporary range. We show that the species displays significant population structure across the North Atlantic at multiple scales. Analysis of contemporary migration rates suggests a remarkably high connectivity between populations in the western North Atlantic, Iceland and the Barents Sea, while two regional populations in the North Sea and adjacent UK and Irish waters are highly differentiated from all other clades. Our results have important implications for the conservation of white-beaked dolphins by providing guidance for the delineation of more appropriate management units and highlighting the risk that local extirpation may have on species-wide genetic diversity. In a broader context, this study highlights the importance of understanding genetic structure of all species threatened with climate change-driven range shifts to assess the risk of loss of species-wide genetic diversity.

The Role of the Hercynian Mountains of Central Europe in Shaping Plant Migration Patterns in the Pleistocene-A Review

The climatic changes that took place in Europe during the Quaternary period influenced plant habitats as well as their species and vegetation composition. In this article, biogeographical studies on Hercynian mountain plants that include data for the Alps, Carpathians, and European lowlands are reviewed in order to discuss the phylogeographical structure and divergence of the Hercynian populations from those in other European mountain ranges, Scandinavia, and lowlands. The analyzed studies show specific phylogeographical relations between the Hercynian mountains, Alps, Scandinavia, Carpathians, and European lowlands. The results also indicate that the genetic patterns of plant populations in the Hercynian Mountains may differ significantly in terms of origin. The main migration routes of species to the Hercynian ranges began in the Alps or Carpathians. Some species, such as Rubus chamaemorus L., Salix lapponum L., and Salix herbacea L., are glacial relics that may have arrived and settled in the Hercynian Mountains during the Ice Age and that survived in isolated habitats. The Hercynian Mountains are composed of various smaller mountain ranges and are a crossroads of migration routes from different parts of Europe; thus, intensive hybridization has occurred between the plant populations therein, which is indicated by the presence of several divergent genetic lines.

Giant pandas are losing their edge: Population trend and distribution dynamic drivers of the giant panda

Comprehending the population trend and understanding the distribution range dynamics of species are necessary for global species protection. Recognizing what causes dynamic distribution change is crucial for identifying species' environmental preferences and formulating protection policies. Here, we studied the rear-edge population of the flagship species, giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca), to (1) assess their population trend using their distribution patterns, (2) evaluate their distribution dynamics change from the second (1988) to the third (2001) survey (2-3 Interval) and third to the fourth (2013) survey (3-4 Interval) using a machine learning algorithm (eXtremely Gradient Boosting), and (3) decode model results to identify driver factors in the first known use of SHapley Additive exPlanations. Our results showed that the population trends in Liangshan Mountains were worst in the second survey (k = 1.050), improved by the third survey (k = 0.97), but deteriorated by the fourth survey (k = 0.996), which indicates a worrying population future. We found that precipitation had the most significant influence on distribution dynamics among several potential environmental factors, showing a negative correlation between precipitation and giant panda expansion. We recommend that further research is needed to understand the microenvironment and animal distribution dynamics. We provide a fresh perspective on the dynamics of giant panda distribution, highlighting novel focal points for ecological research on this species. Our study offers theoretical underpinnings that could inform the formulation of more effective conservation policies. Also, we emphasize the uniqueness and importance of the Liangshan Mountains giant pandas as the rear-edge population, which is at a high risk of population extinction.

Contrasting adaptive genetic consequences of stream insects under changing climate

Freshwater biodiversity undergoes degradation due to climate change. Researchers have inferred the effects of climate change on neutral genetic diversity, assuming the fixed spatial distributions of alleles. However, the adaptive genetic evolution of populations that may change the spatial distribution of allele frequencies along environmental gradients (i.e., evolutionary rescue) have largely been overlooked. We developed a modeling approach that projects the comparatively adaptive and neutral genetic diversities of four stream insects, using empirical neutral/ putative adaptive loci, ecological niche models (ENMs), and a distributed hydrological-thermal simulation at a temperate catchment under climate change. The hydrothermal model was used to generate hydraulic and thermal variables (e.g., annual current velocity and water temperature) at the present and the climatic change conditions, projected based on the eight general circulation models and the three representative concentration pathways scenarios for the two future periods (2031-2050, near future; 2081-2100, far future). The hydraulic and thermal variables were used for predictor variables of the ENMs and adaptive genetic modeling based on machine learning approaches. The increases in annual water temperature in the near- (+0.3-0.7 °C) and far-future (+0.4-3.2 °C) were projected. Of the studied species, with different ecologies and habitat ranges, Ephemera japonica (Ephemeroptera) was projected to lose rear-edge habitats (i.e., downstream) but retain the adaptive genetic diversity owing to evolutionary rescue. In contrast, the habitat range of the upstream-dwelling Hydropsyche albicephala (Trichoptera) was found to remarkably decline, resulting in decreases in the watershed genetic diversity. While the other two Trichoptera species expanded their habitat ranges, the genetic structures were homogenized over the watershed and experienced moderate decreases in gamma diversity. The findings emphasize the evolutionary rescue potential, depending on the extent of species-specific local adaptation.

Gene flow drives genomic diversity in Asian Pikas distributed along the core and range-edge habitats in the Himalayas

Studying the genetic variation among different species distributed across their core and range-edge habitats can provide valuable insights into how genetic variation changes across the species' distribution range. This information can be important for understanding local adaptation, as well as for conservation and management efforts. In this study, we have carried out genomic characterization of six species of Asian Pikas distributed along their core and range-edge habitats in the Himalayas. We utilized a population genomics approach using ~28,000 genome-wide SNP markers obtained from restriction-site associated DNA sequencing. We identified low nucleotide diversity and high inbreeding coefficients in all six species across their core and range-edge habitats. We also identified evidence of gene flow among genetically diverse species. Our results provide evidence of reduced genetic diversity in Asian pikas distributed across the Himalayas and the neighboring regions and indicate that recurrent gene flow is possibly a key mechanism for maintaining genetic diversity and adaptive potential in these pikas. However, full-scale genomics studies that utilize whole-genome sequencing approaches will be needed to quantify the direction and timing of gene flow and functional changes associated with introgressed regions in the genome. Our results represent an important step toward understanding the patterns and consequences of gene flow in species, sampled at the least studied, yet climatically vulnerable part of their habitat that can be further used to inform conservation strategies that promote connectivity and gene flow between populations.

Drivers of strong isolation and small effective population size at a leading range edge of a widespread plant

Climate change has influenced species distributions worldwide with upward elevational shifts observed in many systems. Leading range edge populations, like those at upper elevation limits, are crucial for climate change responses but can exhibit low genetic diversity due to founder effects, isolation, or limited outbreeding. These factors can hamper local adaptation at range limits. Using the widespread herb, Argentina anserina, we measured ecological attributes (population density on the landscape, area of population occupancy, and plant and flower density) spanning a 1000 m elevation gradient, with high elevation populations at the range limit. We measured vegetative clonal potential in the greenhouse for populations spanning the gradient. We combined these data with a ddRAD-seq dataset to test the hypotheses that high elevation populations would exhibit ecological and genomic signatures of leading range edge populations. We found that population density on the landscape declined towards the high elevation limit, as is expected towards range edges. However, plant density was elevated within edge populations. In the greenhouse, high elevation plants exhibited stronger clonal potential than low elevation plants, likely explaining increased plant density in the field. Phylogeographic analysis supported more recent colonization of high elevation populations which were also more genetically isolated, had more extreme heterozygote excess and had smaller effective population size than low. Results support that colonization of high elevations was likely accompanied by increased asexuality, contributing to a decline in effective population size. Despite high plant density in leading edge populations, their small effective size, isolation and clonality could constrain adaptive potential.

Bat responses to climate change: a systematic review

Understanding how species respond to climate change is key to informing vulnerability assessments and designing effective conservation strategies, yet research efforts on wildlife responses to climate change fail to deliver a representative overview due to inherent biases. Bats are a species-rich, globally distributed group of organisms that are thought to be particularly sensitive to the effects of climate change because of their high surface-to-volume ratios and low reproductive rates. We systematically reviewed the literature on bat responses to climate change to provide an overview of the current state of knowledge, identify research gaps and biases and highlight future research needs. We found that studies are geographically biased towards Europe, North America and Australia, and temperate and Mediterranean biomes, thus missing a substantial proportion of bat diversity and thermal responses. Less than half of the published studies provide concrete evidence for bat responses to climate change. For over a third of studied bat species, response evidence is only based on predictive species distribution models. Consequently, the most frequently reported responses involve range shifts (57% of species) and changes in patterns of species diversity (26%). Bats showed a variety of responses, including both positive (e.g. range expansion and population increase) and negative responses (range contraction and population decrease), although responses to extreme events were always negative or neutral. Spatial responses varied in their outcome and across families, with almost all taxonomic groups featuring both range expansions and contractions, while demographic responses were strongly biased towards negative outcomes, particularly among Pteropodidae and Molossidae. The commonly used correlative modelling approaches can be applied to many species, but do not provide mechanistic insight into behavioural, physiological, phenological or genetic responses. There was a paucity of experimental studies (26%), and only a small proportion of the 396 bat species covered in the examined studies were studied using long-term and/or experimental approaches (11%), even though they are more informative about the effects of climate change. We emphasise the need for more empirical studies to unravel the multifaceted nature of bats' responses to climate change and the need for standardised study designs that will enable synthesis and meta-analysis of the literature. Finally, we stress the importance of overcoming geographic and taxonomic disparities through strengthening research capacity in the Global South to provide a more comprehensive view of terrestrial biodiversity responses to climate change.

Inferring genetic structure when there is little: population genetics versus genomics of the threatened bat Miniopterus schreibersii across Europe

Despite their paramount importance in molecular ecology and conservation, genetic diversity and structure remain challenging to quantify with traditional genotyping methods. Next-generation sequencing holds great promises, but this has not been properly tested in highly mobile species. In this article, we compared microsatellite and RAD-sequencing (RAD-seq) analyses to investigate population structure in the declining bent-winged bat (Miniopterus schreibersii) across Europe. Both markers retrieved general patterns of weak range-wide differentiation, little sex-biased dispersal, and strong isolation by distance that associated with significant genetic structure between the three Mediterranean Peninsulas, which could have acted as glacial refugia. Microsatellites proved uninformative in individual-based analyses, but the resolution offered by genomic SNPs illuminated on regional substructures within several countries, with colonies sharing migrators of distinct ancestry without admixture. This finding is consistent with a marked philopatry and spatial partitioning between mating and rearing grounds in the species, which was suspected from marked-recaptured data. Our study advocates that genomic data are necessary to properly unveil the genetic footprints left by biogeographic processes and social organization in long-distant flyers, which are otherwise rapidly blurred by their high levels of gene flow.

Once upon a time in Mexico: Holocene biogeography of the spotted bat (Euderma maculatum)

Holocene-era range expansions are relevant to understanding how a species might respond to the warming and drying climates of today. The harsh conditions of North American deserts have phylogenetically structured desert bat communities but differences in flight capabilities are expected to affect their ability to compete, locate, and use habitat in the face of modern climate change. A highly vagile but data-deficient bat species, the spotted bat (Euderma maculatum), is thought to have expanded its range from central Mexico to western Canada during the Holocene. With specimens spanning this latitudinal extent, we examined historical demography, and used ecological niche modeling (ENM) and phylogeography (mitochondrial DNA), to investigate historic biogeography from the rear to leading edges of the species' range. The ENM supported the notion that Mexico was largely the Pleistocene-era range, whereas haplotype pattern and Skyline plots indicated that populations expanded from the southwestern US throughout the Holocene. This era provided substantial gains in suitable climate space and likely facilitated access to roosting habitat throughout the US Intermountain West. Incongruent phylogenies among different methods prevented a precise understanding of colonization history. However, isolation at the southern-most margin of the range suggests a population was left behind in Mexico as climate space contracted and are currently of unknown status. The species appears historically suited to follow shifts in climate space but differences in flight behaviors between leading edge and core-range haplogroups suggest range expansions could be influenced by differences in habitat quality or climate (e.g., drought). Although its vagility could facilitate response to environmental change and thereby avoid extinction, anthropogenic pressures at the core range could still threaten the ability for beneficial alleles to expand into the leading edge.

Phylogenetic biome conservatism as a key concept for an integrative understanding of evolutionary history: Galliformes and Falconiformes as study cases

Biomes are climatically and biotically distinctive macroecological units that formed over geological time scales. Their features consolidate them as ‘evolutionary scenarios’, with their own diversification dynamics. Under the concept of phylogenetic niche conservatism, we assessed, for the first time, the evolution of biome occupation in birds. We aimed to analyse patterns of adaptation to different climatic regimes and the determinant factors for colonization of emerging biomes by clades from different ancestral biomes. In this work, we reconstructed the biome occupation history of two clades of birds (Galliformes and Falconiformes) under an integrative perspective through a comprehensive review of ecological, phylogenetic, palaeontological and biogeographical evidence. Our findings for both groups are consistent with a scenario of phylogenetic biome conservatism and highlight the importance of changes in climate during the Miocene in the adaptation and evolution of climatic niches. In particular, our results indicate high biome conservatism associated with biomes situated in some of the extremes of the global climate gradient (evergreen tropical rainforest, steppe and tundra) for both bird taxa. Finally, the historical dynamics of tropical seasonal biomes, such as tropical deciduous woodlands and savannas, appear to have played a preponderant role during the diversification processes of these bird lineages.

Long-term field studies in bat research: importance for basic and applied research questions in animal behavior

Animal species differ considerably in longevity. Among mammals, short-lived species such as shrews have a maximum lifespan of about a year, whereas long-lived species such as whales can live for more than two centuries. Because of their slow pace of life, long-lived species are typically of high conservation concern and of special scientific interest. This applies not only to large mammals such as whales, but also to small-sized bats and mole-rats. To understand the typically complex social behavior of long-lived mammals and protect their threatened populations, field studies that cover substantial parts of a species' maximum lifespan are required. However, long-term field studies on mammals are an exception because the collection of individualized data requires considerable resources over long time periods in species where individuals can live for decades. Field studies that span decades do not fit well in the current career and funding regime in science. This is unfortunate, as the existing long-term studies on mammals yielded exciting insights into animal behavior and contributed data important for protecting their populations. Here, I present results of long-term field studies on the behavior, demography, and life history of bats, with a particular focus on my long-term studies on wild Bechstein's bats. I show that long-term studies on individually marked populations are invaluable to understand the social system of bats, investigate the causes and consequences of their extraordinary longevity, and assess their responses to changing environments with the aim to efficiently protect these unique mammals in the face of anthropogenic global change.

Global genetic diversity status and trends: towards a suite of Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) for genetic composition

Biodiversity underlies ecosystem resilience, ecosystem function, sustainable economies, and human well‐being. Understanding how biodiversity sustains ecosystems under anthropogenic stressors and global environmental change will require new ways of deriving and applying biodiversity data. A major challenge is that biodiversity data and knowledge are scattered, biased, collected with numerous methods, and stored in inconsistent ways. The Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO BON) has developed the Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) as fundamental metrics to help aggregate, harmonize, and interpret biodiversity observation data from diverse sources. Mapping and analyzing EBVs can help to evaluate how aspects of biodiversity are distributed geographically and how they change over time. EBVs are also intended to serve as inputs and validation to forecast the status and trends of biodiversity, and to support policy and decision making. Here, we assess the feasibility of implementing Genetic Composition EBVs (Genetic EBVs), which are metrics of within‐species genetic variation. We review and bring together numerous areas of the field of genetics and evaluate how each contributes to global and regional genetic biodiversity monitoring with respect to theory, sampling logistics, metadata, archiving, data aggregation, modeling, and technological advances. We propose four Genetic EBVs: (i) Genetic Diversity; (ii) Genetic Differentiation; (iii) Inbreeding; and (iv) Effective Population Size (N_e). We rank Genetic EBVs according to their relevance, sensitivity to change, generalizability, scalability, feasibility and data availability. We outline the workflow for generating genetic data underlying the Genetic EBVs, and review advances and needs in archiving genetic composition data and metadata. We discuss how Genetic EBVs can be operationalized by visualizing EBVs in space and time across species and by forecasting Genetic EBVs beyond current observations using various modeling approaches. Our review then explores challenges of aggregation, standardization, and costs of operationalizing the Genetic EBVs, as well as future directions and opportunities to maximize their uptake globally in research and policy. The collection, annotation, and availability of genetic data has made major advances in the past decade, each of which contributes to the practical and standardized framework for large‐scale genetic observation reporting. Rapid advances in DNA sequencing technology present new opportunities, but also challenges for operationalizing Genetic EBVs for biodiversity monitoring regionally and globally. With these advances, genetic composition monitoring is starting to be integrated into global conservation policy, which can help support the foundation of all biodiversity and species' long‐term persistence in the face of environmental change. We conclude with a summary of concrete steps for researchers and policy makers for advancing operationalization of Genetic EBVs. The technical and analytical foundations of Genetic EBVs are well developed, and conservation practitioners should anticipate their increasing application as efforts emerge to scale up genetic biodiversity monitoring regionally and globally.

From Asia to Europe? Where Could the Geographical Place of Origin of Polymerus (Pachycentrum) carpathicus (Horváth, 1882) (Hemiptera: Miridae) Be?

This paper presents the first record of a rare species of Miridae, Polymerus (Pachycentrum) carpathicus (Horváth, 1882), in Poland. A broad analysis of its occurrence was conducted, which was based on modelling its potential ecological niche using past and future models, which enabled new and valuable information about the potentially suitable habitats and its possible range of distribution as well as its climatic preferences to be identified. The results of the research indicate that P. (P.) carpathicus prefers habitats in highlands and mountains. This species probably came to Europe from Asia via a postglacial migration and the disjunctive range that characterises P. (P.) carpathicus may be due to a lack of data. Additionally, the key to identifying the Polish species from the subgenera Pachycentrum and Polymerus and maps of their distribution in Poland are also presented.

Multisource noninvasive genetics of brown bears (Ursus arctos) in Greece reveals a highly structured population and a new matrilineal contact zone in southern Europe

In human-dominated landscapes, connectivity is crucial for maintaining demographically stable mammalian populations. Here, we provide a comprehensive noninvasive genetic study for the brown bear population in the Hellenic Peninsula. We analyze its population structuring and connectivity, estimate its population size throughout its distribution, and describe its phylogeography in detail for the first time. Our results, based on 150 multilocus genotypes and on 244-bp sequences of the mtDNA control region, show the population is comprised by three highly differentiated genetic clusters, consistent with geographical populations of Pindos, Peristeri, and Rhodope. By detecting two male bears with Rhodopean ancestry in the western demes, we provide strong evidence for the ongoing genetic connectivity of the geographically fragmented eastern and western distributions, which suggests connectivity of the larger East Balkan and Pindos-Dinara populations. Total effective population size (N e) was estimated to be 199 individuals, and total combined population size (N C) was 499, with each cluster showing a relatively high level of genetic variability, suggesting that migration has been sufficient to counteract genetic erosion. The mtNDA results were congruent with the microsatellite data, and the three genetic clusters were matched predominantly with an equal number of mtDNA haplotypes that belong to the brown bear Western mitochondrial lineage (Clade 1), with two haplotypes being globally new and endemic. The detection of a fourth haplotype that belongs to the Eastern lineage (Clade 3a1) in three bears from the western distribution places the southernmost secondary contact zone between the Eastern and Western lineages in Greece and generates new hypotheses about postglacial maxima migration routes. This work indicates that the genetic composition and diversity of Europe's low-latitude fringe population are the outcome of ancient and historical events and highlight its importance for the connectivity and long-term persistence of the species in the Balkans.

Geographic patterns of genomic diversity and structure in the C4 grass Panicum hallii across its natural distribution

Geographic patterns of within-species genomic diversity are shaped by evolutionary processes, life history and historical and contemporary factors. New genomic approaches can be used to infer the influence of such factors on the current distribution of infraspecific lineages. In this study, we evaluated the genomic and morphological diversity as well as the genetic structure of the C₄ grass Panicum hallii across its complex natural distribution in North America. We sampled extensively across the natural range of P. hallii in Mexico and the USA to generate double-digestion restriction-associated DNA (ddRAD) sequence data for 423 individuals from 118 localities. We used these individuals to study the divergence between the two varieties of P. hallii, P. hallii var. filipes and P. hallii var. hallii as well as the genetic diversity and structure within these groups. We also examined the possibility of admixture in the geographically sympatric zone shared by both varieties, and assessed distribution shifts related with past climatic fluctuations. There is strong genetic and morphological divergence between the varieties and consistent genetic structure defining seven genetic clusters that follow major ecoregions across the range. South Texas constitutes a hotspot of genetic diversity with the co-occurrence of all genetic clusters and admixture between the two varieties. It is likely a recolonization and convergence point of populations that previously diverged in isolation during fragmentation events following glaciation periods.

Up in the air: Threats to Afromontane biodiversity from climate change and habitat loss revealed by genetic monitoring of the Ethiopian Highlands bat

While climate change is recognized as a major future threat to biodiversity, most species are currently threatened by extensive human-induced habitat loss, fragmentation and degradation. Tropical high-altitude alpine and montane forest ecosystems and their biodiversity are particularly sensitive to temperature increases under climate change, but they are also subject to accelerated pressures from land conversion and degradation due to a growing human population. We studied the combined effects of anthropogenic land-use change, past and future climate changes and mountain range isolation on the endemic Ethiopian Highlands long-eared bat, Plecotus balensis, an understudied bat that is restricted to the remnant natural high-altitude Afroalpine and Afromontane habitats. We integrated ecological niche modelling, landscape genetics and model-based inference to assess the genetic, geographic and demographic impacts of past and recent environmental changes. We show that mountain range isolation and historic climates shaped population structure and patterns of genetic variation, but recent anthropogenic land-use change and habitat degradation are associated with a severe population decline and loss of genetic diversity. Models predict that the suitable niche of this bat has been progressively shrinking since the last glaciation period. This study highlights threats to Afroalpine and Afromontane biodiversity, squeezed to higher altitudes under climate change while losing genetic diversity and suffering population declines due to anthropogenic land-use change. We conclude that the conservation of tropical montane biodiversity requires a holistic approach, using genetic, ecological and geographic information to understand the effects of environmental changes across temporal scales and simultaneously addressing the impacts of multiple threats.

High genetic diversity and strong genetic structure of Strongyllodes variegatus populations in oilseed rape production areas of China

Background

Strongyllodes variegatus (Fairmaire) is a major insect pest of oilseed rape in China. Despite its economic importance, the contribution of its population genetics in the development of any suitable protection control strategy for the management of oilseed rape crops is poorly studied. It is a much urgent need to prevent its spread to the rest of the world.

Results

Using the sequences of mitochondrial DNA cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) and cytochrome b (Cytb) as genetic markers, we analyzed the population genetic diversity and structure of 437 individuals collected from 15 S. variegatus populations located in different oilseed rape production areas in China. In addition, we estimated the demographic history using neutrality test and mismatch distribution analysis. The high level of genetic diversity was detected among the COI and Cytb sequences of S. variegatus. The population structure analyses strongly suggested three distinct genetic and geographical regions in China with limited gene flow. The Mantel test showed that the genetic distance was greatly influenced by the geographical distance. The demographic analyses showed that S. variegatus had experienced population fluctuation during the Pleistocene Epoch, which was likely to be related to the climatic changes.

Conclusion

Overall, these results demonstrate that the strong genetic structure of S. variegatus populations in China, which is attributed by the isolation through the geographical distance among populations, their weak flight capacity and subsequent adaptation to the regional ecological conditions.

Harnessing paleo-environmental modeling and genetic data to predict intraspecific genetic structure

Spatially explicit simulations of gene flow within complex landscapes could help forecast the responses of populations to global and anthropological changes. Simulating how past climate change shaped intraspecific genetic variation can provide a validation of models in anticipation of their use to predict future changes. We review simulation models that provide inferences on population genetic structure. Existing simulation models generally integrate complex demographic and genetic processes but are less focused on the landscape dynamics. In contrast to previous approaches integrating detailed demographic and genetic processes and only secondarily landscape dynamics, we present a model based on parsimonious biological mechanisms combining habitat suitability and cellular processes, applicable to complex landscapes. The simulation model takes as input (a) the species dispersal capacities as the main biological parameter, (b) the species habitat suitability, and (c) the landscape structure, modulating dispersal. Our model emphasizes the role of landscape features and their temporal dynamics in generating genetic differentiation among populations within species. We illustrate our model on caribou/reindeer populations sampled across the entire species distribution range in the Northern Hemisphere. We show that simulations over the past 21 kyr predict a population genetic structure that matches empirical data. This approach looking at the impact of historical landscape dynamics on intraspecific structure can be used to forecast population structure under climate change scenarios and evaluate how species range shifts might induce erosion of genetic variation within species.

Conserving on the edge: genetic variation and structure in northern populations of the endangered plant Dracocephalum ruyschiana L. (Lamiaceae)

Loss of biodiversity is accelerating, including the loss of genetic diversity. Conservation of small, isolated populations may be important, as they can provide valuable contributions to overall genetic variation and long-term viability of species. Furthermore, such populations may play an essential role in adaptation to new environments following changes in e.g. land-use and climate. Dracocephalum ruyschiana is a threatened plant species throughout its European distribution, but 25% of the European populations are situated within Norway. Therefore, the species has its own action plan in Norway, which includes demographic monitoring. However, this monitoring does not cover genetic variation nor is the selection of monitored populations based on genetic differentiation, therefore this fundamental level of biodiversity is overlooked. We analyzed 43 sites using 96 SNPs developed for D. ruyschiana, to investigate whether the monitored populations cover the genetic variation and differentiation found within the Norwegian distribution. The results show structuring and differentiation between populations and indicate that there are at least four distinct genetic groups, of which only two are covered extensively by current demographic monitoring. We suggest that two sites representing the two other genetic groups should be included in the national monitoring program to better conserve the genetic variation found in the Norwegian population of D. ruyschiana. Overall, our results highlight the importance of an integrated, interdisciplinary framework to better monitor and conserve biodiversity at several levels.

Hiding from the climate: Characterizing microrefugia for boreal forest understory species

Climate warming is likely to shift the range margins of species poleward, but fine-scale temperature differences near the ground (microclimates) may modify these range shifts. For example, cold-adapted species may survive in microrefugia when the climate gets warmer. However, it is still largely unknown to what extent cold microclimates govern the local persistence of populations at their warm range margin. We located 99 microrefugia, defined as sites with edge populations of 12 widespread boreal forest understory species (vascular plants, mosses, liverworts and lichens) in an area of ca. 24,000 km² along the species' southern range margin in central Sweden. Within each population, a logger measured temperature eight times per day during one full year. Using univariate and multivariate analyses, we examined the differences of the populations' microclimates with the mean and range of microclimates in the landscape, and identified the typical climate, vegetation and topographic features of these habitats. Comparison sites were drawn from another logger data set (n = 110), and from high-resolution microclimate maps. The microrefugia were mainly places characterized by lower summer and autumn maximum temperatures, late snow melt dates and high climate stability. Microrefugia also had higher forest basal area and lower solar radiation in spring and autumn than the landscape average. Although there were common trends across northern species in how microrefugia differed from the landscape average, there were also interspecific differences and some species contributed more than others to the overall results. Our findings provide biologically meaningful criteria to locate and spatially predict potential climate microrefugia in the boreal forest. This opens up the opportunity to protect valuable sites, and adapt forest management, for example, by keeping old-growth forests at topographically shaded sites. These measures may help to mitigate the loss of genetic and species diversity caused by rear-edge contractions in a warmer climate.

Integrating population genetics to define conservation units from the core to the edge of Rhinolophus ferrumequinum western range

The greater horseshoe bat (Rhinolophus ferrumequinum) is among the most widespread bat species in Europe but it has experienced severe declines, especially in Northern Europe. This species is listed Near Threatened in the European IUCN Red List of Threatened Animals, and it is considered to be highly sensitive to human activities and particularly to habitat fragmentation. Therefore, understanding the population boundaries and demographic history of populations of this species is of primary importance to assess relevant conservation strategies. In this study, we used 17 microsatellite markers to assess the genetic diversity, the genetic structure, and the demographic history of R. ferrumequinum colonies in the western part of its distribution. We identified one large population showing high levels of genetic diversity and large population size. Lower estimates were found in England and northern France. Analyses of clustering and isolation by distance suggested that the Channel and the Mediterranean seas could impede R. ferrumequinum gene flow. These results provide important information to improve the delineation of R. ferrumequinum management units. We suggest that a large management unit corresponding to the population ranging from Spanish Basque Country to northern France must be considered. Particular attention should be given to mating territories as they seem to play a key role in maintaining high levels of genetic mixing between colonies. Smaller management units corresponding to English and northern France colonies must also be implemented. These insular or peripheral colonies could be at higher risk of extinction in the near future.

A continent-scale study of the social structure and phylogeography of the bent-wing bat, Miniopterus schreibersii (Mammalia: Chiroptera), using new microsatellite data

Miniopterus schreibersii is a cave-dwelling bat species with a wide distribution in the western Palearctic spanning southern and central Europe, North Africa, Anatolia, the Middle East, and the Caucasus. We investigated the social structure and its effects on the genetic makeup of this species, using 10 nuclear microsatellite markers and a partial fragment of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene. Samples were examined from the species' entire circum-Mediterranean range. Local structuring that was previously detected among populations of M. schreibersii using mitochondrial markers was not observed for microsatellite markers, indicating male-biased dispersal for the species. Some support was found for postglacial expansions in Europe, with Anatolia potentially acting as the primary refugium during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). However, support for this hypothesis is not as strong as that previously detected using mitochondrial DNA markers. This is likely due to the diminishing effect of male-mediated dispersal, replenishing the nuclear diversity faster than the mitochondrial diversity in regions that are relatively far from the glacial refugia.

Fluctuating fortunes: genomes and habitat reconstructions reveal global climate-mediated changes in bats' genetic diversity

Over the last approximately 2.6 Myr, Earth's climate has been dominated by cyclical ice ages that have profoundly affected species' population sizes, but the impact of impending anthropogenic climate change on species' extinction potential remains a worrying problem. We investigated 11 bat species from different taxonomic, ecological and geographical backgrounds using combined information from palaeoclimatic habitat reconstructions and genomes to analyse biotic impacts of historic climate change. We discover tightly correlated fluctuations between species' historic distribution and effective population size, identify frugivores as particularly susceptible to global warming, pinpoint large insectivores as having overall low effective population size and flag the onset of the Holocene (approx. 10-12 000 years ago) as the period with the generally lowest effective population sizes across the last approximately 1 Myr. Our study shows that combining genomic and palaeoclimatological approaches reveals effects of climatic shifts on genetic diversity and may help predict impacts of future climate change.

Species characteristics affect local extinctions

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

Human activities threaten thousands of species with extinction. However, it remains difficult to predict extinction risk for many vulnerable species. Species traits, species characteristics such as rarity or habitat use, and phylogenetic patterns are associated with responses to anthropogenic environmental change and may help predict likelihood of extinction.

METHODS

We used historical botanical data from Kalamazoo County, Michigan, USA, to examine whether species traits (growth form, life history, nitrogen-fixation, photosynthetic pathway), species characteristics (community association, species origin, range edge, habitat specialization, rarity), or phylogenetic relatedness explain local species loss at the county level.

KEY RESULTS

Across Kalamazoo County, prairie species, species at the edge of their native range, regionally rare species, and habitat specialists were most likely to become locally extinct. Prairie species experienced the highest local extinction rates of any habitat type, and among prairie species, regionally rare and specialist species were most vulnerable to loss. We found no evidence for a phylogenetic pattern in plant extinctions.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study illustrates the value of historical datasets for understanding and potentially predicting biodiversity loss. Not surprisingly, rare, specialist species occupying threatened habitats are most at risk of local extinction. As a result, identifying mechanisms to conserve or restore rare or declining species and preventing further habitat destruction may be the most effective strategies for reducing future extinction.

Genetic diversity in frogs linked to past and future climate changes on the roof of the world

Mountains, representing storehouses of biodiversity, endemism and threatened species, are biodiversity hotspots of great conservation importance. However, increasing evidence indicates that mountain species throughout the world are responding to climate change, past or contemporary, by shifting their geographic distributions and patterns of genetic diversity, potentially affecting their adaptive capacity and increasing risk of extinction. Using the iconic high-elevation frog Nanorana parkeri as indicator, we showed how spatial analyses of climatic stability combined with genetic data allow unravelling amphibian responses to past and future climate changes on 'the roof of the world'-the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. We found that areas along the Yarlung Tsangpo Valley were climatically more stable relative to other regions, apparently serving as a large climatic refugium during Quaternary glaciations, but that these areas will likely be affected by future climate change. As populations closer to Quaternary refugia usually had higher genetic diversity, current genetic diversity can be explained in the largest part by distance to historically stable areas, outweighing other historical and contemporary factors. Along with the dynamics of suitable range, a fluctuating habitat fragmentation supported the pattern of historical changes in genetic diversity (N_e ) over time. Our results emphasize strong relationships between amphibian genetic diversity, past range dynamics and where to preserve suitable habitats in the face of future climate changes. More generally, our findings highlighted a central role of refugia during Quaternary climatic fluctuations, and how isolation from refugia may have modulated amphibian genetic diversity across the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.

Porous barriers? Assessment of gene flow within and among sympatric long-eared bat species

Species are the basic units for measuring biodiversity and for comprehending biological interactions. Yet, their delineation is often contentious, especially in groups that are both diverse and phenotypically conservative. Three cryptic species of long-eared bats, Plecotus auritus, P. austriacus, and P. macrobullaris, co-occur over extensive areas of Western Europe. The latter is a fairly recent discovery, questioning the overall diversity of the entire Plecotus complex. Yet, high morphological and acoustic similarities compromise the reliable identification of long-eared bats in the field. We postulate that such extensive phenotypic overlap, along with the recurrent observation of morphologically intermediate individuals, may hide rampant interspecific hybridization. Based on a geographic sampling centered on areas of sympatry in the Alps and Corsica, we assessed the level of reproductive isolation of these three Plecotus species with mitochondrial and nuclear markers, looking at both inter- and intraspecific genetic population structuring. No sign of hybridization was detected between these three species that appear well separated biologically. Genetic structuring of populations, however, reflected different species-specific responses to environmental connectivity, that is, to the presence of orographic or sea barriers. While the Alpine range and the Ligurian Sea coincided with sharp genetic discontinuities in P. macrobullaris and P. austriacus, the more ubiquitous P. auritus showed no significant population structuration. There were clear phylogeographic discrepancies between microsatellite and mitochondrial markers at the intraspecific level, however, which challenges the reliance on simple barcoding approaches for the delineation of sound conservation units.

Combining molecular and landscape tools for targeting evolutionary processes in reserve design: An approach for islands

The importance of targeting ecological and evolutionary processes in reserve design has been widely acknowledged in the literature but rarely implemented on islands. Using Socotran reptiles as models, we aim to relate richness of widespread and restricted-range species directly with landscape variables and to compare the impact of setting conservation targets for lineages versus species. Socotra Island is a UNESCO Natural World Heritage Site, containing high levels of endemism in relation to its area, especially of reptiles, the vertebrates with the most comprehensive available genetic data. We predicted the occurrences of reptile species using distribution models and used a novel approach to interpolate maps of spatial phylogenetic patterns. Patterns of intra and interspecifc diversity and differences between spatial outputs of lineage and species richness were related to eco-geographic variables. We evaluated differences in target achievement for each conservation unit within protected areas (PAs) under the current Zoning Plan (ZP) using gap and reserve design analyses. Although intraspecific richness was strongly correlated with interspecific richness, differences in their spatial distribution reached ~30% in some areas. Differences were more pronounced for wide-ranging than restricted-range taxa. Gap analysis indicates that most conservation units are under-represented in sanctuaries and that intra and interspecific richness were significantly higher outside PAs. This work will guide local-scale conservation planning as the ZP is due to be re-evaluated. This is one of the few studies on islands using genetic data from an entire class of vertebrates to incorporate lineage diversity in reserve design. This study provides an alternative methodological framework for supporting the use of landscape and genetic tools in reserve design, circumventing the use of phylogenetic distances and deterministic spatial interpolation of lineage diversity that can be widely applied to other systems.

Genetic adaptation as a biological buffer against climate change: Potential and limitations

Climate change profoundly impacts ecosystems and their biota, resulting in range shifts, novel interactions, food web alterations, changed intensities of host-parasite interactions, and extinctions. An increasing number of studies have documented evolutionary changes in traits such as phenology and thermal tolerance. In this opinion paper, we argue that, while evolutionary responses have the potential to provide a buffer against extinctions or range shifts, a number of constraints and complexities blur this simple prediction. First, there are limits to evolutionary potential both in terms of genetic variation and demographic effects, and these limits differ strongly among taxa and populations. Second, there can be costs associated with genetic adaptation, such as a reduced evolutionary potential towards other (human-induced) environmental stressors or direct fitness costs due to tradeoffs. Third, the differential capacity of taxa to genetically respond to climate change results in novel interactions because different organism groups respond to a different degree with local compared to regional (dispersal and range shift) responses. These complexities result in additional changes in the selection pressures on populations. We conclude that evolution can provide an initial buffer against climate change for some taxa and populations but does not guarantee their survival. It does not necessarily result in reduced extinction risks across the range of taxa in a region or continent. Yet, considering evolution is crucial, as it is likely to strongly change how biota will respond to climate change and will impact which taxa will be the winners or losers at the local, metacommunity and regional scales.

Historical explanation of genetic variation in the Mediterranean horseshoe bat Rhinolophus euryale (Chiroptera: Rhinolophidae) inferred from mitochondrial cytochrome-b and D-loop genes in Iran

Molecular phylogeography and species distribution modelling (SDM) suggest that late Quaternary glacial cycles have portrayed a significant role in structuring current population genetic structure and diversity. Based on phylogenetic relationships using Bayesian inference and maximum likelihood of 535 bp mtDNA (D-loop) and 745 bp mtDNA (Cytb) in 62 individuals of the Mediterranean Horseshoe Bat, Rhinolophus euryale, from 13 different localities in Iran we identified two subspecific populations with differing population genetic structure distributed in southern Zagros Mts. and northern Elburz Mts. Analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) obtained from D-loop sequences indicates that 21.18% of sequence variation is distributed among populations and 10.84% within them. Moreover, a degree of genetic subdivision, mainly attributable to the existence of significant variance among the two regions is shown (θCT = 0.68, p = .005). The positive and significant correlation between geographic and genetic distances (R² = 0.28, r = 0.529, p = .000) is obtained following controlling for environmental distance. Spatial distribution of haplotypes indicates that marginal population of the species in southern part of the species range have occupied this section as a glacial refugia. However, this genetic variation, in conjunction with results of the SDM shows a massive postglacial range expansion for R. euryale towards higher latitudes in Iran.

Glacial vicariance drives phylogeographic diversification in the amphi-boreal kelp Saccharina latissima

Glacial vicariance is regarded as one of the most prevalent drivers of phylogeographic structure and speciation among high-latitude organisms, but direct links between ice advances and range fragmentation have been more difficult to establish in marine than in terrestrial systems. Here we investigate the evolution of largely disjunct (and potentially reproductively isolated) phylogeographic lineages within the amphi-boreal kelp Saccharina latissima s. l. Using molecular data (COI, microsatellites) we confirm that S. latissima comprises also the NE Pacific S. cichorioides complex and is composed of divergent lineages with limited range overlap and genetic admixture. Only a few genetic hybrids were detected throughout a Canadian Arctic/NW Greenland contact zone. The degree of genetic differentiation and sympatric isolation of phylogroups suggest that S. latissima s. l. represents a complex of incipient species. Phylogroup distributions compared with paleo-environmental reconstructions of the cryosphere further suggest that diversification within S. latissima results from chronic glacial isolation in disjunct persistence areas intercalated with ephemeral interglacial poleward expansions and admixture at high-latitude (Arctic) contact zones. This study thus supports a role for glaciations not just in redistributing pre-existing marine lineages but also as a speciation pump across multi-glacial cycles for marine organisms otherwise exhibiting cosmopolite amphi-boreal distributions.

Distributional dynamics of a vulnerable species in response to past and future climate change: a window for conservation prospects

BACKGROUND

The ongoing change in climate is predicted to exert unprecedented effects on Earth's biodiversity at all levels of organization. Biological conservation is important to prevent biodiversity loss, especially for species facing a high risk of extinction. Understanding the past responses of species to climate change is helpful for revealing response mechanisms, which will contribute to the development of effective conservation strategies in the future.

METHODS

In this study, we modelled the distributional dynamics of a 'Vulnerable' species, Pseudolarix amabilis, in response to late Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles and future 2080 climate change using an ecological niche model (MaxEnt). We also performed migration vector analysis to reveal the potential migration of the population over time.

RESULTS

Historical modelling indicates that the range dynamics of P. amabilis is highly sensitive to climate change and that its long-distance dispersal ability and potential for evolutionary adaption are limited. Compared to the current climatically suitable areas for this species, future modelling showed significant migration northward towards future potential climatically suitable areas.

DISCUSSION

In combination with the predicted future distribution, the mechanism revealed by the historical response suggests that this species will not be able to fully occupy the future expanded areas of suitable climate or adapt to the unsuitable climate across the future contraction regions. As a result, we suggest assisted migration as an effective supplementary means of conserving this vulnerable species in the face of the unprecedentedly rapid climate change of the 21st century. As a study case, this work highlights the significance of introducing historical perspectives while researching species conservation, especially for currently vulnerable or endangered taxa that once had a wider distribution in geological time.

An integrated framework to identify wildlife populations under threat from climate change

Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity that will produce a range of new selection pressures. Understanding species responses to climate change requires an interdisciplinary perspective, combining ecological, molecular and environmental approaches. We propose an applied integrated framework to identify populations under threat from climate change based on their extent of exposure, inherent sensitivity due to adaptive and neutral genetic variation and range shift potential. We consider intraspecific vulnerability and population-level responses, an important but often neglected conservation research priority. We demonstrate how this framework can be applied to vertebrates with limited dispersal abilities using empirical data for the bat Plecotus austriacus. We use ecological niche modelling and environmental dissimilarity analysis to locate areas at high risk of exposure to future changes. Combining outlier tests with genotype-environment association analysis, we identify potential climate-adaptive SNPs in our genomic data set and differences in the frequency of adaptive and neutral variation between populations. We assess landscape connectivity and show that changing environmental suitability may limit the future movement of individuals, thus affecting both the ability of populations to shift their distribution to climatically suitable areas and the probability of evolutionary rescue through the spread of adaptive genetic variation among populations. Therefore, a better understanding of movement ecology and landscape connectivity is needed for predicting population persistence under climate change. Our study highlights the importance of incorporating genomic data to determine sensitivity, adaptive potential and range shift potential, instead of relying solely on exposure to guide species vulnerability assessments and conservation planning.

Parabolic variation in sexual selection intensity across the range of a cold-water pipefish: implications for susceptibility to climate change

While an understanding of evolutionary processes in shifting environments is vital in the context of rapid ecological change, one of the most potent selective forces, sexual selection, remains curiously unexplored. Variation in sexual selection across a species range, especially across a gradient of temperature regimes, has the potential to provide a window into the possible impacts of climate change on the evolution of mating patterns. Here, we investigated some of the links between temperature and indicators of sexual selection, using a cold-water pipefish as model. We found that populations differed with respect to body size, length of the breeding season, fecundity, and sexual dimorphism across a wide latitudinal gradient. We encountered two types of latitudinal patterns, either linear, when related to body size, or parabolic in shape when considering variables related to sexual selection intensity, such as sexual dimorphism and reproductive investment. Our results suggest that sexual selection intensity increases toward both edges of the distribution and that the large differences in temperature likely play a significant role. Shorter breeding seasons in the north and reduced periods for gamete production in the south certainly have the potential to alter mating systems, breeding synchrony, and mate monopolization rates. As latitude and water temperature are tightly coupled across the European coasts, the observed patterns in traits related to sexual selection can lead to predictions regarding how sexual selection should change in response to climate change. Based on data from extant populations, we can predict that as the worm pipefish moves northward, a wave of decreasing selection intensity will likely replace the strong sexual selection at the northern range margin. In contrast, the southern populations will be followed by heightened sexual selection, which may exacerbate the problem of local extinction at this retreating boundary.

Transcriptional mechanisms underlying life-history responses to climate change in the three-spined stickleback

Phenotypic plasticity, the ability of an organism to express different phenotypes depending on the environment, provides an important mechanism by which an animal population can persist under rapid climate change. We experimentally tested both life‐history and transcriptional responses of an ecological model species, the three‐spined stickleback, to warm acclimation at the southern edge of its European range. We explored cross‐environment genetic correlations of key life‐history traits in male sticklebacks exposed to long‐term temperature changes to examine whether the plasticity pattern was variable among genotypes by using a character‐state approach. We also studied gene expression plasticity by analysing both whole‐transcriptome and candidate gene expression in brain and liver. Male sticklebacks that developed under warmer conditions during winter were smaller in size and invested less in nuptial coloration at the beginning of the breeding season, showing similar responses across different genotypes. The lack of genetic variation in life‐history responses may limit any future evolution of the thermal reaction norm in the study population. After long‐term exposure to increased winter temperatures, genes responsible for several metabolic and oxidation–reduction processes were upregulated, and some hormone genes involved in growth and reproduction were downregulated in the brain. In the liver, there was no significantly represented gene ontology by the differentially expressed genes. Since a higher temperature leads to a higher resting metabolic rate, living in warmer environments may incur higher energetic costs for ectotherms to maintain cellular homoeostasis, resulting in negative consequences for life‐history traits. The expression of genes related to metabolism, cellular homoeostasis and regulatory signalling may underlie temperature‐induced changes in life history.

Regional adaptation defines sensitivity to future ocean acidification

Physiological responses to temperature are known to be a major determinant of species distributions and can dictate the sensitivity of populations to global warming. In contrast, little is known about how other major global change drivers, such as ocean acidification (OA), will shape species distributions in the future. Here, by integrating population genetics with experimental data for growth and mineralization, physiology and metabolomics, we demonstrate that the sensitivity of populations of the gastropod Littorina littorea to future OA is shaped by regional adaptation. Individuals from populations towards the edges of the natural latitudinal range in the Northeast Atlantic exhibit greater shell dissolution and the inability to upregulate their metabolism when exposed to low pH, thus appearing most sensitive to low seawater pH. Our results suggest that future levels of OA could mediate temperature-driven shifts in species distributions, thereby influencing future biogeography and the functioning of marine ecosystems.

Global warming is expected to lead to shifts in species' geographic ranges to track preferred temperatures. Here, the authors show that populations of the common periwinkle vary in their sensitivity to ocean acidification, another major global change driver, which could further restrict range shifts caused by warming.