Human pressures predict species' geographic range size better than biological traits

Contrasting range changes and drivers of four forest foundation species under future climate change in China

Forest foundation species, vital for shaping community structure and dynamics through non-trophic level interactions, are key to forest succession and sustainability. Despite their ecological importance, the habitat ranges of these species in China and their responses to future climate change remain unclear. Our study employed the optimal MaxEnt model to assess the range shifts and their essential drivers of four typical forest foundation species from three climatic zones in China under climate scenarios, including Acer tegmentosum, Acer pseudo-sieboldianum (temperate zone), Quercus glandulifera (subtropical zone), and Ficus hispida (tropical zone). The optimal MaxEnt model exhibited high evaluation indices (AUC values > 0.90) for the four foundation species, indicating excellent predictive performance. Currently, we observed that A. tegmentosum and A. pseudo-sieboldianum are predominantly inhabited temperate forest areas in northeastern China, Q. glandulifera is primarily concentrated in subtropical forests in southeastern China, and F. hispida is mainly distributed across the tropical forests in southern China. Climate factors, particularly temperature, emerged as the primary environmental factors influencing the potential range of forest foundation species. Moreover, precipitation strongly influenced the potential range of A. tegmentosum and A. pseudo-sieboldianum, while elevation exhibited a greater impact on the range of Q. glandulifera and F. hispida. Under future climate scenarios, suitable areas for A. tegmentosum and A. pseudo-sieboldianum tend to expand southward, F. hispida tends to expand northward, while Q. glandulifera exhibited a tendency to contract towards the center. This study advances our understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of forest foundation species in China under climate change, providing critical insights for conservation efforts and sustainable forest management practices.

Rethinking ecological niches and geographic distributions in face of pervasive human influence in the Anthropocene

Species are distributed in predictable ways in geographic spaces. The three principal factors that determine geographic distributions of species are biotic interactions (B), abiotic conditions (A), and dispersal ability or mobility (M). A species is expected to be present in areas that are accessible to it and that contain suitable sets of abiotic and biotic conditions for it to persist. A species' probability of presence can be quantified as a combination of responses to B, A, and M via ecological niche modeling (ENM; also frequently referred to as species distribution modeling or SDM). This analytical approach has been used broadly in ecology and biogeography, as well as in conservation planning and decision-making, but commonly in the context of 'natural' settings. However, it is increasingly recognized that human impacts, including changes in climate, land cover, and ecosystem function, greatly influence species' geographic ranges. In this light, historical distinctions between natural and anthropogenic factors have become blurred, and a coupled human-natural landscape is recognized as the new norm. Therefore, B, A, and M (BAM) factors need to be reconsidered to understand and quantify species' distributions in a world with a pervasive signature of human impacts. Here, we present a framework, termed human-influenced BAM (Hi-BAM, for distributional ecology that (i) conceptualizes human impacts in the form of six drivers, and (ii) synthesizes previous studies to show how each driver modifies the natural BAM and species' distributions. Given the importance and prevalence of human impacts on species distributions globally, we also discuss implications of this framework for ENM/SDM methods, and explore strategies by which to incorporate increasing human impacts in the methodology. Human impacts are redefining biogeographic patterns; as such, future studies should incorporate signals of human impacts integrally in modeling and forecasting species' distributions.

Potential migration pathways of broadleaved trees across the receding boreal biome under future climate change

Climate change has triggered poleward expansions in the distributions of various taxonomic groups, including tree species. Given the ecological significance of trees as keystone species in forests and their socio-economic importance, projecting the potential future distributions of tree species is crucial for devising effective adaptation strategies for both biomass production and biodiversity conservation in future forest ecosystems. Here, we fitted physiographically informed habitat suitability models (HSMs) at 50-m resolution across Sweden (55-68° N) to estimate the potential northward expansion of seven broadleaved tree species within their leading-edge distributions in Europe under different future climate change scenarios and for different time periods. Overall, we observed that minimum temperature was the most crucial variable for comprehending the spatial distribution of broadleaved tree species at their cold limits. Our HSMs projected a complex range expansion pattern for 2100, with individualistic differences among species. However, a frequent and rather surprising pattern was a northward expansion along the east coast followed by narrow migration pathways along larger valleys towards edaphically suitable areas in the north-west, where most of the studied species were predicted to expand. The high-resolution maps generated in this study offer valuable insights for our understanding of range shift dynamics at the leading edge of southern tree species as they expand into the receding boreal biome. These maps suggest areas where broadleaved tree species could already be translocated to anticipate forest and biodiversity conservation adaptation efforts in the face of future climate change.

Pushing the boundaries: actual and potential distribution of thrushes expanding their ranges in South America

The distribution of a species reflects its ecological adaptability and evolutionary history, which is shaped by the environment and represents a dynamic area subject to anthropogenic environmental change. We used the MaxEnt algorithm to construct ecological niche models for four thrush species within the Turdus genus; T. amaurochalinus, T. chiguanco, T. falcklandii and T. rufiventris. These models were used to predict the potential geographic distributions of these species that are expanding their ranges in South America. Using occurrence records, we estimated currently occupied areas for each species. We also identified suitable habitats and projected possible areas to be colonized by the four species at continental scale. Temperature annual range had the highest influence for T. falcklandii, while human modification was the main variable explaining the distribution of the other three species. The potential distribution area ranged from 2.5 million km2 for T. falcklandii to nearly seven million km2 for T. amaurochalinus. Large proportions of suitable area remain unoccupied by all four species, being 50% for T. amaurochalinus and T. rufiventris, and about 70% for T. chiguanco and T. falcklandii. Anthropogenic disturbances, such as habitat loss and ecosystem transformation, lead to non-random species extinction and biotic homogenization, highlighting the importance of predictive models as valuable tools for informing mitigation policies and conservation strategies. Thrushes are progressively expanding their ranges, and the colonization of new habitats could bring new challenges.

Two-Dimensional Amphibian Diversity along a 3500 m Elevational Gradient at the Eastern Edge of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau

Amphibians serve as reliable indicators of ecosystem health and are the most threatened group of vertebrates. Studies on their spatial distribution pattern and threats are crucial to formulate conservation strategies. Gongga Mountains, with a peak at 7509 m a.s.l. and running latitudinally, are in the center of the Hengduan Mountains Range and at the eastern steep edge of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, providing heterogeneous habitats and varied niches for amphibians. In this study, we combined 83 days of field work with information from 3894 museum specimens that were collected over the past 80 years, and identified twenty amphibian species belonging to seven families and twelve genera by morphology. Of these species, seven were listed in the threatened categories of the Red List of China's Biodiversity and thirteen were endemic to China. Ten species were found on the plateau side (western slope) and eleven species were found on the other side close to the Sichuan Basin (eastern slope). Only one species was found on both sides, indicating different community structures horizontally. The species richness was unimodal vertically and peaking at mid elevation on both sides, with the maximum number (ten vs. nine) of species occurring at 3300-3700 vs. 1700-1900 m a.s.l. and in different types of vegetation. The elevation span and body length of species distributed on both slopes did not show significant differences. These findings help to understand the horizontal and vertical distribution pattern of amphibian diversity, laying a foundation for future biogeographical and conservation research in this area.

Can large-scale tree planting in China compensate for the loss of climate connectivity due to deforestation?

Extensive deforestation has been a major reason for the loss of forest connectivity, impeding species range shifts under current climate change. Over the past decades, the Chinese government launched a series of afforestation and reforestation projects to increase forest cover, yet whether the new forests can compensate for the loss of connectivity due to deforestation-and where future tree planting would be most effective-remains largely unknown. Here, we evaluate changes in climate connectivity across China's forests between 2015 and 2019. We find that China's large-scale tree planting alleviated the negative impacts of forest loss on climate connectivity, improving the extent and probability of climate connectivity by 0-0.2 °C and 0-0.03, respectively. The improvements were particularly obvious for species with short dispersal distances (i.e., 3 km and 10 km). Nevertheless, only ~55 % of the trees planted in this period could serve as stepping stones for species movement. This indicates that focusing solely on the quantitative target of forest coverage without considering the connectivity of forests may miss opportunities in tree planting to facilitate climate-induced range shifts. More attention should be paid to the spatial arrangement of tree plantations and their potential as stepping stones. We then identify priority areas for future tree planting to create effective stepping stones. Our study highlights the potential of large-scale tree planting to facilitate range shifts. Future tree-planting efforts should incorporate the need for species range shifts to achieve more biodiversity conservation benefits under climate change.

Giant pandas are losing their edge: Population trend and distribution dynamic drivers of the giant panda

Comprehending the population trend and understanding the distribution range dynamics of species are necessary for global species protection. Recognizing what causes dynamic distribution change is crucial for identifying species' environmental preferences and formulating protection policies. Here, we studied the rear-edge population of the flagship species, giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca), to (1) assess their population trend using their distribution patterns, (2) evaluate their distribution dynamics change from the second (1988) to the third (2001) survey (2-3 Interval) and third to the fourth (2013) survey (3-4 Interval) using a machine learning algorithm (eXtremely Gradient Boosting), and (3) decode model results to identify driver factors in the first known use of SHapley Additive exPlanations. Our results showed that the population trends in Liangshan Mountains were worst in the second survey (k = 1.050), improved by the third survey (k = 0.97), but deteriorated by the fourth survey (k = 0.996), which indicates a worrying population future. We found that precipitation had the most significant influence on distribution dynamics among several potential environmental factors, showing a negative correlation between precipitation and giant panda expansion. We recommend that further research is needed to understand the microenvironment and animal distribution dynamics. We provide a fresh perspective on the dynamics of giant panda distribution, highlighting novel focal points for ecological research on this species. Our study offers theoretical underpinnings that could inform the formulation of more effective conservation policies. Also, we emphasize the uniqueness and importance of the Liangshan Mountains giant pandas as the rear-edge population, which is at a high risk of population extinction.

Anthropogenic predictors of varying Holocene occurrence for Europe's large mammal fauna

Understanding how species respond to different anthropogenic pressures is essential for conservation planning. The archaeological record has great potential to inform extinction risk assessment by providing evidence on past human-caused biodiversity loss, but identifying specific drivers of past declines from environmental archives has proved challenging. We used 17 684 Holocene zooarchaeological records for 15 European large mammal species together with data on past environmental conditions and anthropogenic activities across Europe, to assess the ability of environmental archives to determine the relative importance of different human pressures in shaping faunal distributions through time. Site occupancy probability showed differing significant relationships with environmental covariates for all species, and nine species also showed significant relationships with anthropogenic covariates (human population density, % cropland, % grazing land). Across-species differences in negative relationships with covariates provide ecological insights for understanding extinction dynamics: some mammals (red deer, aurochs, wolf, wildcat, lynx, pine marten and beech marten) were more vulnerable to past human-environmental interactions, and differing single and synergistic anthropogenic factors influenced likelihood of past occurrence across species. Our results provide new evidence for pre-industrial population fragmentation and depletion in European mammals, and demonstrate the usefulness of historical baselines for understanding species' varying long-term sensitivity to multiple threats.

Regional occupancy increases for widespread species but decreases for narrowly distributed species in metacommunity time series

While human activities are known to elicit rapid turnover in species composition through time, the properties of the species that increase or decrease their spatial occupancy underlying this turnover are less clear. Here, we used an extensive dataset of 238 metacommunity time series of multiple taxa spread across the globe to evaluate whether species that are more widespread (large-ranged species) differed in how they changed their site occupancy over the 10-90 years the metacommunities were monitored relative to species that are more narrowly distributed (small-ranged species). We found that on average, large-ranged species tended to increase in occupancy through time, whereas small-ranged species tended to decrease. These relationships were stronger in marine than in terrestrial and freshwater realms. However, in terrestrial regions, the directional changes in occupancy were less extreme in protected areas. Our findings provide evidence for systematic decreases in occupancy of small-ranged species, and that habitat protection could mitigate these losses in the face of environmental change.

Distribution patterns and drivers of nonendemic and endemic glires species in China

Spatial patterns and determinants of species richness in complex geographical regions are important subjects of current biogeography and biodiversity conservation research. Glires are small herbivorous mammal species with limited migratory ability that may serve as an indicator of biodiversity and ecosystems. Herein, we aimed to evaluate how multiple ecological hypotheses could explain the species richness patterns of glires in China. Initially, we constructed a mapping grid cell operating units of 80 × 80 km2 which covered China's land mass and mapped the distribution ranges of the 237 glires species that had recorded. The glires taxa were separated into three response variables based on their distribution: (a) all species, (b) nonendemic species, and (c) endemic species. The species richness patterns of the response variables were evaluated using four predictor sets: (a) hydrothermal characteristics, (b) climatic seasonality, (c) habitat heterogeneity, and (d) human factors. We performed regression tree analysis, multiple linear regression analysis, and variation partitioning analyses to determine the effects of predictors on spatial species patterns. The results showed that the distribution pattern of species richness was the highest in the Hengduan Mountains and surrounding areas in southwest China. However, only a few endemic species adapted to high-latitude environments. It was found that there are differences about the determinants between nonendemic and endemic species. Habitat heterogeneity was the most influential determinant for the distribution patterns of nonendemic species richness. Climatic seasonality was the best predictor to determine the richness distribution pattern of endemic species, whereas this was least affected by human factors. Furthermore, it should be noted that hydrothermal characteristics were not strong predictors of richness patterns for all or nonendemic species, which may be due to the fact that there are also more species in some areas with less precipitation or energy. Therefore, glires are likely to persist in areas with characteristics of high habitat heterogeneity and stable climate.

Ecological impacts of unsustainable sand mining: urgent lessons learned from a critically endangered freshwater cetacean

Sand mining, which has tripled in the last two decades, is an emerging concern for global biodiversity. However, the paucity of sand mining data worldwide prevents understanding the extent of sand mining impacts and how it affects wildlife populations and ecosystems, which is critical for timely mitigation and conservation actions. Integrating remote sensing and field surveys over 14 years, we investigated mining impacts on the critically endangered Yangtze finless porpoise (Neophocaena asiaeorientalis asiaeorientalis) in Dongting Lake, China. We found that sand mining presented a consistent, widespread disturbance in Dongting Lake. Porpoises strongly avoided mining sites, especially those of higher mining intensity. The extensive sand mining significantly contracted the porpoise's range and restricted their habitat use in the lake. Water traffic for sand transportation further blocked the species's river-lake movements, affecting the population connectivity. In addition, mining-induced loss of near-shore habitats, a critical foraging and nursery ground for the porpoise, occurred in nearly 70% of the water channels of our study region. Our findings provide the first empirical evidence of the impacts of unregulated sand extractions on species distribution. Our spatio-temporally explicit approach and findings support regulation and conservation, yielding broader implications for sustainable sand mining worldwide.

Effects of climate and human activity on the current distribution of amphibians in China

In China, as elsewhere, amphibians are highly endangered. Anthropogenic environmental change has affected the distribution and population dynamics of species, and species distributions at a broad scale are strongly driven by climate and species' ability to disperse. Yet, current knowledge remains limited on how widespread human activity affects the distribution patterns of amphibians in China and whether this effect extends beyond climate. We compiled a relatively comprehensive database on the distribution of 196 amphibian species in China from the literature, public databases, and field data. We obtained 25,826 records on almost 50% of known species in China. To test how environmental factors and human activities influence the current distribution of amphibians (1960-1990), we used range filling, which is species realized ranges relative to their potential climate distribution. We used all species occurrence records to represent realized range and niche models to predict potential distribution range. To reduce uncertainty, we used 3 regression methods (beta regression, generalized boosted regression models, and random forest) to test the associations of species range filling with human activity, climate, topography, and range size. The results of the 3 approaches were consistent. At the species level, mean annual precipitation (climate) had the most effect on spatial distribution pattern of amphibians in China, followed by range size. Human activity ranked last. At the spatial level, mean annual precipitation remained the most important factor. Regions in southeastern of China that are currently moist supported the highest amphibian diversity, but were predicted to experience a decline in precipitation under climate change scenarios. Consequently, the distributions of amphibians will likely shift to the northwest in the future, which could affect future conservation efforts.

Plastid phylogenomic insights into relationships, divergence, and evolution of Apiales

Members of Apiales are monophyletic and radiated in the Late Cretaceous. Fruit morphologies are critical for Apiales evolution and negative selection and mutation pressure play important roles in environmental adaptation. Apiales include many foods, spices, medicinal, and ornamental plants, but the phylogenetic relationships, origin and divergence, and adaptive evolution remain poorly understood. Here, we reconstructed Apiales phylogeny based on 72 plastid genes from 280 species plastid genomes representing six of seven families of this order. Highly supported phylogenetic relationships were detected, which revealed that each family of Apiales is monophyletic and confirmed that Pennanticeae is a member of Apiales. Genera Centella and Dickinsia are members of Apiaceae, and the genus Hydrocotyle previously classified into Apiaceae is confirmed to belong to Araliaceae. Besides, coalescent phylogenetic analysis and gene trees cluster revealed ten genes that can be used for distinguishing species among families of Apiales. Molecular dating suggested that the Apiales originated during the mid-Cretaceous (109.51 Ma), with the families' radiation occurring in the Late Cretaceous. Apiaceae species exhibit higher differentiation compared to other families. Ancestral trait reconstruction suggested that fruit morphological evolution may be related to shifts in plant types (herbaceous or woody), which in turn is related to the distribution areas and species numbers. Codon bias and positive selection analyses suggest that negative selection and mutation pressure may play important roles in environmental adaptation of Apiales members. Our results improve the phylogenetic framework of Apiales and provide insights into the origin, divergence, and adaptive evolution of this order and its members.

Geographic range size, water temperature, and extrinsic threats predict the extinction risk in global cetaceans

Despite the fact that cetaceans provide significant ecological contributions to the health and stability of aquatic ecosystems, many are highly endangered with nearly one-third of species assessed as threatened with extinction. Nevertheless, to date, few studies have explicitly examined the patterns and processes of extinction risk and threats for this taxon, and even less between the two subclades (Mysticeti and Odontoceti). To fill this gap, we compiled a dataset of six intrinsic traits (active region, geographic range size, body weight, diving depth, school size, and reproductive cycle), six environmental factors relating to sea surface temperature and chlorophyll concentration, and two human-related threat indices that are commonly recognized for cetaceans. We then employed phylogenetic generalized least squares models and model selection to identify the key predictors of extinction risk in all cetaceans, as well as in the two subclades. We found that geographic range size, sea surface temperature, and human threat index were the most important predictors of extinction risk in all cetaceans and in odontocetes. Interestingly, maximum body weight was positively associated with the extinction risk in mysticetes, but negatively related to that for odontocetes. By linking seven major threat types to extinction risk, we further revealed that fisheries bycatch was the most common threat, yet the impacts of certain threats could be overestimated when considering all species rather than just threatened ones. Overall, we suggest that conservation efforts should focus on small-ranged cetaceans and species living in warmer waters or under strong anthropogenic pressures. Moreover, further studies should consider the threatened status of species when superimposing risk maps and quantifying risk severity. Finally, we emphasize that mysticetes and odontocetes should be conserved with different strategies, because their extinction risk patterns and major threat types are considerably different. For instance, large-bodied mysticetes and small-ranged odontocetes require special conservation priority.

Socio-ecological gap analysis to forecast species range contractions for conservation

Conservation requires both a needs assessment and prioritization scheme for planning and implementation. Range maps are critical for understanding and conserving biodiversity, but current range maps often omit content, negating important metrics of variation in populations and places. Here, we integrate a myriad of conditions that are spatially explicit across distributions of carnivores to identify gaps in capacity necessary for their conservation. Expanding on traditional gap analyses that focus almost exclusively on quantifying discordance in protected area coverage across a species' range, our work aggregates threat layers (e.g., drought, human pressures) with resources layers (e.g., protected areas, cultural diversity) to identify gaps in available conservation capacity (ACC) across ranges for 91 African carnivores. Our model indicated that all species have some portion of their range at risk of contraction, with an average of 15 percentage range loss. We found that the ACC differed based on body size and taxonomy. Results deviated from current perceptions of extinction risks for species with an International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) threat status of Least Concern and yielded insights for species categorized as Data Deficient. Our socio-ecological gap analysis presents a geospatial approach to inform decision-making and resource allocation in conservation. Ultimately, our work advances forecasting dynamics of species' ranges that are increasingly vital in an era of great socio-ecological change to mitigate human-wildlife conflict and promote inclusive carnivore conservation across geographies.

The recent Asian elephant range expansion in Yunnan, China, is associated with climate change and enforced protection efforts in human-dominated landscapes

Recently, the northward movement of Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) in Yunnan, China, has attracted international attention. Climate change or human disturbances have been proposed to be the key drivers, but these hypotheses have not been rigorously tested. In this study, we quantified the relationship between climate change and human impacts on the recent range expansion of Asian elephants in southwest China. We found that the first observation probability of this species in a new place during 1959–2021 had a significant and positive association with change in air temperature and human density, resulting in a movement toward a high-latitude region with a warmer climate and higher human density; however, its association with precipitation was scale-dependent in time: positive or negative during the past 10 or 5 years, respectively. Under the enforced protection policy, human-dominated areas became preferred habitats for elephants. Our results indicate that climate change and enforced protection efforts in human-dominated landscapes in the last few decades are significant drivers of the recent range expansion of Asian elephants in Yunnan, China. It is necessary to expand the current protected areas or habitat corridors toward the north or set up new reserves in the north and set up barriers between human settlements and elephant habitats to facilitate elephant movements and minimize human-elephant conflicts under accelerated global change.

Multiple dimensions of niche specialization explain changes in species’ range area, occupancy, and population size

In response to environmental change, species may decrease or increase in population size across their range, expand or contract their range limits, or alter how sites are occupied within their existing range. Shifts in range limits and widespread changes in population size have been documented in birds especially in response to changes in climate. Range occupancy, or how patchily or continuously a species is distributed within their range, has been studied less in the context of anthropogenic changes but may be expected to decrease with range-wide population size if abundance-occupancy relationships are generally positive. Determining which properties of species are related to range expansion or contraction or increased range occupancy or decreased range occupancy is useful in developing an understanding of which species become “winners” or “losers” under global change. Species with broader climatic niches may be more likely to successfully expand to new sites as climate changes. Range occupancy can be related to habitat preferences of species, and habitat specialization may predict how species fill in sites within their range. To examine how species niche breadth may explain changes in species distributions, we modeled how changes in range-wide population size, range extent, and range occupancy from 1976 to 2016 were predicted by species’ climate, habitat, and diet niche breadth for 77 North American breeding bird species. We found that climate generalists were more likely to be increasing in range area, while species with declining population trends were likely to be contracting in range area and in occupancy within their range. Understanding how different dimensions of specialization relate to shifts in species distributions may improve predictions of which species are expected to benefit from or be vulnerable to anthropogenic change.

Insights into plant biodiversity conservation in large river valleys in China: A spatial analysis of species and phylogenetic diversity

Large river valleys (LRVs) are heterogeneous in habitat and rich in biodiversity, but they are largely overlooked in policies that prioritize conservation. Here, we aimed to identify plant diversity hotspots along LRVs based on species richness and spatial phylogenetics, evaluate current conservation effectiveness, determine gaps in the conservation networks, and offer suggestions for prioritizing conservation. We divided the study region into 50 km × 50 km grid cells and determined the distribution patterns of seed plants by studying 124,927 occurrence points belonging to 14,481 species, using different algorithms. We generated phylogenies for the plants using the "V. PhyloMaker" R package, determined spatial phylogenetics, and conducted correlation analyses between different distribution patterns and spatial phylogenetics. We evaluated the effectiveness of current conservation practices and discovered gaps of hotspots within the conservation networks. In the process, we identified 36 grid cells as hotspots (covering 10% of the total area) that contained 83.4% of the species. Fifty-eight percent of the hotspot area falls under the protection of national nature reserves (NNRs) and 83% falls under national and provincial nature reserves (NRs), with 42% of the area identified as conservation gaps of NNRs and 17% of the area as gaps of NRs. The hotspots contained high proportions of endemic and threatened species, as did conservation gaps. Therefore, it is necessary to optimize the layout of current conservation networks, establish micro-nature reserves, conduct targeted conservation priority planning focused on specific plant groups, and promote conservation awareness. Our results show that the conservation of three hotspots in Southwest China, in particular, is likely to positively affect the protection of biodiversity in the LRVs, especially with the participation of the neighboring countries, India, Myanmar, and Laos.

Relative Importance of Ecological, Evolutionary and Anthropogenic Pressures on Extinction Risk in Chinese Angiosperm Genera

China has many threatened plant species, which are exposed to environmental degradation and other anthropogenic pressures. We assessed support for potential extinction pathways in Chinese angiosperm genera and quantified possible threats to phylogenetic diversity. We compiled a database and phylogeny for 27,409 Chinese angiosperm species in 2,453 genera. For each genus, we used the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List classifications to quantify extinction risk and calculated predictors corresponding to their ecological, evolutionary characteristics and exposure to human pressures. We first tested for phylogenetic clustering in extinction risk among genera and then tested support for direct and indirect causal pathways involving our predictors using piecewise structural equation models. Finally, we quantified the potential loss of phylogenetic diversity under different extinction scenarios. We found that extinction risk is non-randomly distributed among Chinese angiosperm genera, with the proportion of threatened species higher in range-limited and species-rich taxa. Habitat loss had a significant positive effect on threatened species richness. Phylogenetic diversity loss under scenarios: the decreasing habitat loss and relative extinction rate were high. Thus, genera would suffer from high extinction risk, if species in these genera occupy similar niches and overlapping ranges. While diversification or speciation via niche divergence might increase range-limited species vulnerable to stochastic extinction, this could reduce extinction risk of the whole clade by expanding its range and climatic niche tolerance. Endemic genera with higher extinction rates, less climatic niche divergence, and lower range segregation are especially vulnerable to anthropogenic disturbances.

Upward shift and elevational range contractions of subtropical mountain plants in response to climate change

Elevational range shifts of mountain species in response to climate change have profound impact on mountain biodiversity. However, current evidence indicates great controversies in the direction and magnitude of elevational range shifts across species and regions. Here, using historical and recent occurrence records of 83 plant species in a subtropical mountain, Mt. Gongga (Sichuan, China), we evaluated changes in species elevation centroids and limits (upper and lower) along elevational gradients, and explored the determinants of elevational changes. We found that 63.9% of the species shifted their elevation centroids upward, while 22.9% shifted downward. The changes in centroid elevations and range size were more strongly correlated with changes in lower than upper limits of species elevational ranges. The magnitude of centroid elevation shifts was larger than predicted by climate warming and precipitation changes. Our results show complex changes in species elevational distributions and range sizes in Mt. Gongga, and that climate change, species traits and climate adaptation of species all influenced their elevational movement. As Mt. Gongga is one of the global biodiversity hotspots, and contains many threatened plant species, these findings provide support to future conservation planning.

Habitat prediction modelling for vulture conservation in Gangetic-Thar-Deccan region of India

Ecologically and economically important obligate scavengers like vultures are under threat of extinction in the old world. Several resident and migratory vulture sites and individuals are hosted by the Gangetic-Thar-Deccan region of India with varied landscapes. The landscape is under threat from anthropogenic activities and climate change impacting the habitat. Therefore, habitat suitability of vultures was analysed using species distribution model, MaxEnt, ensemble of global circulation models (CCSM4, HadGEM2AO and MIROC5), citizen science and expert collected data. Altogether, 51 models were developed and their robustness was assessed to be good for conservation purpose (AUC range 0.719-0.906). Predicted unsuitable and suitable area categories of all vultures, resident vultures and migratory vultures were identified for the present and future years (2050 and 2070) under moderate and extreme emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The short-term and long-term area suitability change varied between 1 and 3%. Area suitability differences were also noticed among larger (global) and smaller (local) geographical areas. The bioenvironmental parameters (land use, land cover and human footprint) played a major role in habitat determination in the current scenario. Bioclimatic factors, like precipitation parameters (precipitation seasonality bio 15 and annual precipitation bio12) and temperature parameters (isothermality bio 3 and temperature seasonality bio04), were the main model determining covariates for future prediction. An earlier hypothesis of higher suitability of forest and lower suitability of agriculture area tested in this study stood modified. Implications of the results are discussed, and conservation strategies are suggested with an advice of global strategy and local execution.

Automated conservation assessment of the orchid family with deep learning

International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments are essential for prioritizing conservation needs but are resource intensive and therefore available only for a fraction of global species richness. Automated conservation assessments based on digitally available geographic occurrence records can be a rapid alternative, but it is unclear how reliable these assessments are. We conducted automated conservation assessments for 13,910 species (47.3% of the known species in the family) of the diverse and globally distributed orchid family (Orchidaceae), for which most species (13,049) were previously unassessed by IUCN. We used a novel method based on a deep neural network (IUC-NN). We identified 4,342 orchid species (31.2% of the evaluated species) as possibly threatened with extinction (equivalent to IUCN categories critically endangered [CR], endangered [EN], or vulnerable [VU]) and Madagascar, East Africa, Southeast Asia, and several oceanic islands as priority areas for orchid conservation. Orchidaceae provided a model with which to test the sensitivity of automated assessment methods to problems with data availability, data quality, and geographic sampling bias. The IUC-NN identified possibly threatened species with an accuracy of 84.3%, with significantly lower geographic evaluation bias relative to the IUCN Red List and was robust even when data availability was low and there were geographic errors in the input data. Overall, our results demonstrate that automated assessments have an important role to play in identifying species at the greatest risk of extinction.

Scale-dependent effects of niche specialisation: The disconnect between individual and species ranges

One of the most general expectations of species range dynamics is that widespread species tend to have broader niches. However, it remains unclear how this relationship is expressed at different levels of biological organisation, which involve potentially distinctive processes operating at different spatial and temporal scales. Here, we show that range sizes of terrestrial non-volant mammals at the individual and species level show contrasting relationships with two ecological niche dimensions: diet and habitat breadth. While average individual home range size appears to be mainly shaped by the interplay of diet niche breadth and body mass, species geographical range size is primarily related to habitat niche breadth but not to diet niche breadth. Our findings suggest that individual home range size is shaped by the trade-off between energetic requirements, movement capacity and trophic specialisation, whereas species geographical range size is related to the ability to persist under various environmental conditions.

Rapid Anthropocene realignment of allometric scaling rules

The negative relationship between body size and population density in mammals is often interpreted as resulting from energetic constraints. In a global change scenario, however, this relationship might be expected to change, given the size-dependent nature of anthropogenic pressures and vulnerability to extinction. Here we test whether the size-density relationship (SDR) in mammals has changed over the last 50 years. We show that the relationship has shifted down and became shallower, corresponding to a decline in population density of 31-73%, for the largest and smallest mammals, respectively. However, the SDRs became steeper in some groups (e.g. carnivores) and shallower in others (e.g. herbivores). The Anthropocene reorganisation of biotic systems is apparent in macroecological relationships, reinforcing the notion that biodiversity pattens are contingent upon conditions at the time of investigation. We call for an increased attention to the role of global change on macroecological inferences.

Environmental Factors Are Stronger Predictors of Primate Species’ Distributions Than Basic Biological Traits

Understanding the neutral, biological, and environmental processes driving species distributions is valuable in informing conservation efforts because it will help us predict how species will respond to changes in environmental conditions. Environmental processes affect species differently according to their biological traits, which determine how they interact with their environment. Therefore, functional, trait-based modeling approaches are considered important for predicting distributions and species responses to change but even for data-rich primate communities our understanding of the relationships between traits and environmental conditions is limited. Here we use a large-scale, high-resolution data set of African diurnal primate distributions, biological traits, and environmental conditions to investigate the role of biological traits and environmental trait filtering in primate distributions. We collected data from published sources for 354 sites and 14 genera with 57 species across sub-Saharan Africa. We then combined a three-table ordination method, RLQ, with the fourth-corner approach to test relationships between environmental variables and biological traits and used a mapping approach to visually assess patterning in primate genus and species’ distributions. We found no significant relationships between any groups of environmental variables and biological traits, despite a clear role of environmental filtering in driving genus and species’ distributions. The most important environmental driver of species distributions was temperature seasonality, followed by rainfall. We conclude that the relative flexibility of many primate genera means that not any one particular set of traits drives their species–environment associations, despite the clear role of such associations in their distribution patterns.

Mapping the Potential Global Distribution of Red Imported Fire Ant (Solenopsis invicta Buren) Based on a Machine Learning Method

As one of the most notorious invasive species, the red imported fire ant (Solenopsis invicta Buren) has many adverse impacts on biodiversity, environment, agriculture, and human health. Mapping the potential global distribution of S. invicta becomes increasingly important for the prevention and control of its invasion. By combining the most comprehensive occurrence records with an advanced machine learning method and a variety of geographical, climatic, and human factors, we have produced the potential global distribution maps of S. invicta at a spatial resolution of 5 × 5 km2. The results revealed that the potential distribution areas of S. invicta were primarily concentrated in southeastern North America, large parts of South America, East and Southeast Asia, and Central Africa. The deforested areas in Central Africa and the Indo-China Peninsula were particularly at risk from S. invicta invasion. In addition, this study found that human factors such as nighttime light and urban accessibility made considerable contributions to the boosted regression tree (BRT) model. The results provided valuable insights into the formulation of quarantine policies and prevention measures.

Anthropogenic extinctions conceal widespread evolution of flightlessness in birds

Human-driven extinctions can affect our understanding of evolution, through the nonrandom loss of certain types of species. Here, we explore how knowledge of a major evolutionary transition-the evolution of flightlessness in birds-is biased by anthropogenic extinctions. Adding data on 581 known anthropogenic extinctions to the extant global avifauna increases the number of species by 5%, but quadruples the number of flightless species. The evolution of flightlessness in birds is a widespread phenomenon, occurring in more than half of bird orders and evolving independently at least 150 times. Thus, we estimate that this evolutionary transition occurred at a rate four times higher than it would appear based solely on extant species. Our analysis of preanthropogenic avian diversity shows how anthropogenic effects can conceal the frequency of major evolutionary transitions in life forms and highlights the fact that macroevolutionary studies with only small amounts of missing data can still be highly biased.

Explaining mammalian abundance and elevational range size with body mass and niche characteristics

Recent work on tropical montane small mammals and birds has shown that abundance–elevational range size relationships (i.e., the relationship between abundance of a species and its elevational range size) can be manifested in a number of distinct generalized patterns. To understand why different patterns occur, one first must understand the causal mechanisms behind patterns of interspecific variation in species abundance and elevational range size. Using small mammal data along five elevational gradients in Southwest China, we assessed the relative importance of body mass, niche position (i.e., how typical the environmental conditions in which a species occurs are of the full set of conditions under consideration) and niche breadth in explaining the interspecific variation in mean abundance of species of small mammals, and elevational range size. Niche position and niche breadth were calculated using outlying mean index analysis based on 24 environmental variables. The relative importance of body mass, niche position, and niche breadth, in explaining the mean abundance and elevational range size of species were examined using phylogenetic regression and phylogenetic path analyses. Along each of five elevational gradients, body mass maintained a nonsignificant (P > 0.05) relationship both with mean abundance and elevational range size when the effects of phylogeny were taken into account. Niche position had a negative effect on mean abundance and elevational range size (species with a niche position close to edge environmental conditions were rarer and had smaller elevational range sizes) across five gradients (significant negative effect: three gradients for mean abundance; five gradients for elevational range size). Conversely, a positive effect of niche breadth on mean abundance and elevational range size was observed consistently, yet the effect was significant only for some gradients (mean abundance: two gradients; elevational range size: four gradients). Our study suggests that niche position and niche breadth both are good predictors of abundance and elevational range size of montane small mammals; niche position and niche breadth therefore play a strong role in the formation of abundance–elevational range size relationship.

Predicting multi-species foraging hotspots for marine turtles in the Gulf of Mexico

Quantifying the distribution of animals and identifying underlying characteristics that define suitable habitat are essential for effective conservation of free-ranging species. Prioritizing areas for conservation is important in managing a geographic extent that has a high level of disturbance and limited conservation resources. We examined the potential use of a species distribution model ensemble for multi-species conservation in marine habitats. Using satellite telemetry locations during foraging as input data, and ensemble ecological niche models, we predicted foraging areas for 2 nesting marine turtle species within the Gulf of Mexico (GoM): Kemp’s ridley Lepidochelys kempii (n = 63) and loggerhead Caretta caretta (n = 63). We considered 7 geophysical, biological, and climatic variables and compared contributing factors for each species’ foraging habitat selection. For both species, predicted suitable foraging habitats encompassed large areas along the GoM coast, but only intersected with each other in relatively small areas. Highly parameterized models resulted in overall greater fits, suggesting that multiple factors influence habitat selection by these species. Model validation results were mixed: cross-validation resulted in high prediction accuracy for both species, but an evaluation against independent data resulted in a low omission rate (5%) for Kemp’s ridleys and a high omission rate (72%) for loggerheads. The relatively small intersection of model-predicted foraging areas for these 2 species within the study area may indicate possible niche differentiations. The high omission rate for loggerheads indicates our samples likely underrepresent the population and illustrates the challenges in predicting suitable foraging extents for species that make dynamic movements and have greater individual variability.

Genetic diversity, relatedness and inbreeding of ranched and fragmented Cape buffalo populations in southern Africa

Wildlife ranching, although not considered a conventional conservation system, provides a sustainable model for wildlife utilization and could be a source of valuable genetic material. However, increased fragmentation and intensive management may threaten the evolutionary potential and conservation value of species. Disease-free Cape buffalo (Syncerus caffer caffer) in southern Africa exist in populations with a variety of histories and management practices. We compared the genetic diversity of buffalo in national parks to private ranches and found that, except for Addo Elephant National Park, genetic diversity was high and statistically equivalent. We found that relatedness and inbreeding levels were not substantially different between ranched populations and those in national parks, indicating that breeding practices likely did not yet influence genetic diversity of buffalo on private ranches in this study. High genetic differentiation between South African protected areas highlighted their fragmented nature. Structure analysis revealed private ranches comprised three gene pools, with origins from Addo Elephant National Park, Kruger National Park and a third, unsampled gene pool. Based on these results, we recommend the Addo population be supplemented with disease-free Graspan and Mokala buffalo (of Kruger origin). We highlight the need for more research to characterize the genetic diversity and composition of ranched wildlife species, in conjunction with wildlife ranchers and conservation authorities, in order to evaluate the implications for management and conservation of these species across different systems.

Global correlates of range contractions and expansions in terrestrial mammals

Understanding changes in species distributions is essential to disentangle the mechanisms that drive their responses to anthropogenic habitat modification. Here we analyse the past (1970s) and current (2017) distribution of 204 species of terrestrial non-volant mammals to identify drivers of recent contraction and expansion in their range. We find 106 species lost part of their past range, and 40 of them declined by >50%. The key correlates of this contraction are large body mass, increase in air temperature, loss of natural land, and high human population density. At the same time, 44 species have some expansion in their range, which correlates with small body size, generalist diet, and high reproductive rates. Our findings clearly show that human activity and life history interact to influence range changes in mammals. While the former plays a major role in determining contraction in species’ distribution, the latter is important for both contraction and expansion.

Understanding why many species ranges are contracting while others are stable or expanding is important to inform conservation in an increasingly human-modified world. Here, Pacifici and colleagues investigate changes in the ranges of 204 mammals, showing that human factors mostly explain range contractions while life history explains both contraction and expansion.

Global priorities for conservation of reptilian phylogenetic diversity in the face of human impacts

Phylogenetic diversity measures are increasingly used in conservation planning to represent aspects of biodiversity beyond that captured by species richness. Here we develop two new metrics that combine phylogenetic diversity and the extent of human pressure across the spatial distribution of species - one metric valuing regions and another prioritising species. We evaluate these metrics for reptiles, which have been largely neglected in previous studies, and contrast these results with equivalent calculations for all terrestrial vertebrate groups. We find that regions under high human pressure coincide with the most irreplaceable areas of reptilian diversity, and more than expected by chance. The highest priority reptile species score far above the top mammal and bird species, and reptiles include a disproportionate number of species with insufficient extinction risk data. Data Deficient species are, in terms of our species-level metric, comparable to Critically Endangered species and therefore may require urgent conservation attention.

Determinants of geographic range size in plants

Geographic range size has long fascinated ecologists and evolutionary biologists, yet our understanding of the factors that cause variation in range size among species and across space remains limited. Not only does geographic range size inform decisions about the conservation and management of rare and nonindigenous species due to its relationship with extinction risk, rarity, and invasiveness, but it also provides insights into fundamental processes such as dispersal and adaptation. There are several features unique to plants (e.g. polyploidy, mating system, sessile habit) that may lead to distinct mechanisms explaining variation in range size. Here, we highlight key studies testing intrinsic and extrinsic hypotheses about geographic range size under contrasting scenarios where species' ranges are static or change over time. We then present results from a meta-analysis of the relative importance of commonly hypothesized determinants of range size in plants. We show that our ability to infer the relative importance of these determinants is limited, particularly for dispersal ability, mating system, ploidy, and environmental heterogeneity. We highlight avenues for future research that merge approaches from macroecology and evolutionary ecology to better understand how adaptation and dispersal interact to facilitate niche evolution and range expansion.

Sampling methods affect Nematode-Trapping Fungi biodiversity patterns across an elevational gradient

Background

Understanding the patterns of species richness across elevational gradients is a key concept for contemporary research in ecology and evolution, and critical to understanding large-scale trends in biodiversity, global change and conservation. However, patterns of elevational species richness between taxonomic groups, regions and latitudes are inconsistent, so that various, sometimes conflicting hypotheses exist. Several scholars have pointed out that research on elevational distribution patterns is often biased by the sampling design employed. To test this hypothesis, we analyzed species richness of Nematode-Trapping Fungi (NTF) across an elevation gradient at two mountainous sites in western Yunnan Province, P.R. China. We tested for potential differences in the results when using different sampling designs.

Results

A total of 3 genera, 17 species, 222 strains of NTF were isolated and identified from Gaoligongshan and Cangshan. Species accumulation curves for both sites and sampling modes had acceptable leveling, demonstrating sufficient sampling effort. At Gaoligongshan, the elevation distribution patterns of NTF were different under two sampling patterns. When reducing the analyzed altitude range in Gaoligongshan, the elevation distribution pattern of the NTF changed. A similar elevation distribution pattern was observed in Cangshan when testing the same altitude range. In general, when treating the same dataset using different sampling designs, the resulting distribution patterns of species richness and occurrence frequencies were clearly different. Moreover, after removal of the samples located within lower-altitude zones affected by anthropogenic interferences, the distribution pattern of NTF in the two sites tended to become uniform.

Conclusion

The sampling design, and in particular the elevation interval between plots, has a significant effect on the assessment of species distribution in mountainous regions. Other factors such as human activities and the multi-dimensionality of biodiversity also contribute to result biases. It is recommended that sampling design is given careful consideration in future studies on the elevational gradients of species richness, using stratified approaches according to the most relevant factors.

Human activities have opposing effects on distributions of narrow-ranged and widespread plant species in China

Human activities have shaped large-scale distributions of many species, driving both range contractions and expansions. Species differ naturally in range size, with small-range species concentrated in particular geographic areas and potentially deviating ecologically from widespread species. Hence, species' responses to human activities may be influenced by their geographic range sizes, but if and how this happens are poorly understood. Here, we use a comprehensive distribution database and species distribution modeling to examine if and how human activities have affected the extent to which 9,701 vascular plants fill their climatic potential ranges in China. We find that narrow-ranged species have lower range filling and widespread species have higher range filling in the human-dominated southeastern part of China, compared with their counterparts distributed in the less human-influenced northwestern part. Variations in range filling across species and space are strongly associated with indicators of human activities (human population density, human footprint, and proportion of cropland) even after controlling for alternative drivers. Importantly, narrow-ranged and widespread species show negative and positive range-filling relationships to these human indicators, respectively. Our results illustrate that floras risk biotic homogenization as a consequence of anthropogenic activities, with narrow-ranged species becoming replaced by widespread species. Because narrow-ranged species are more numerous than widespread species in nature, negative impacts of human activities will be prevalent. Our findings highlight the importance of establishing more protected areas and zones of reduced human activities to safeguard the rich flora of China.

The mesoscavenger release hypothesis and implications for ecosystem and human well-being

Many apex scavenger species, including nearly all obligate scavengers, are in a state of rapid decline and there is growing evidence these declines can drastically alter ecological food webs. Our understanding of how apex scavengers regulate populations of mesoscavengers, those less-efficient scavengers occupying mid-trophic levels, is improving; yet, there has been no comprehensive evaluation of the evidence around the competitive release of these species by the loss of apex scavengers. Here we present current evidence that supports the mesoscavenger release hypothesis, the increase in mesoscavengers and increase in carrion in the face of declining apex scavengers. We provide two models of scavenger dynamics to demonstrate that the mesoscavenger release hypothesis is consistent with ecological theory. We further examine the ecological and human well-being implications of apex scavenger decline, including carrion removal and disease regulation services.