Climate change opens new frontiers for marine species in the Arctic: Current trends and future invasion risks

Quantifying the probability of a successful marine bioinvasion due to source-destination risk factors

The increasing spread of marine non-indigenous species (NIS) due to the growth in global shipping traffic is causing widespread concern for the ecological and economic impacts of marine bioinvasions. Risk management authorities need tools to identify pathways and source regions of priority concern to better target efforts for preventing NIS introduction. The probability of a successful NIS introduction is affected by the likelihood that a marine species entrained in a transport vector will survive the voyage between origin and destination locations and establish an independently reproducing population at the destination. Three important risk factors are voyage duration, range of environmental conditions encountered during transit and environmental similarity between origin and destination. In this study, we aimed for a globally comprehensive approach to assembling quantifications of source-destination risk factors from every potential origin to every potential destination. To derive estimates of voyage-related marine biosecurity risk, we used computer-simulated vessel paths between pairs of ecoprovinces in the Marine Ecoregions Of the World biogeographic classification system. We used the physical length of each path to calculate voyage duration risk and the cross-latitudinal extent of the path to calculate voyage path risk. Environmental similarity risk was based on comparing annual average sea surface temperature and salinity within each ecoprovince to those of other ecoprovinces. We derived three separate sets of risk quantifications, one each for voyage duration, voyage path and environmental similarity. Our quantifications can be applied to studies that require source-destination risk estimates. They can be used separately or combined, depending on the importance of the types of source-destination risks that might be relevant to particular scientific or risk management questions or applications.

Global warming scenarios for the Eastern Adriatic Sea indicate a higher risk of invasiveness of non-native marine organisms relative to current climate conditions

Globally, marine bioinvasions threaten marine ecosystem structure and function, with the Mediterranean Sea being one of the most affected regions. Such invasions are expected to increase due to climate change. We conducted a risk screening of marine organisms (37 fishes, 38 invertebrates, and 9 plants), both extant and 'horizon' (i.e., not present in the area but likely to enter it). Based on expert knowledge for the Eastern Adriatic Sea coasts of Slovenia, Croatia, and Montenegro, screenings were conducted under both current and predicted climate conditions indicating with an increase in sea surface temperature and salinity of the Adriatic Sea together with changes in precipitation regime. Our aims were to: (1) identify non-native extant and horizon marine species that may pose threats to native biodiversity and (2) evaluate the risk of invasiveness of the selected species under current and predicted climate conditions. Of the 84 species screened, there was an increase in those ranked as 'high risk' from 33 (39.3%) under current climate conditions and to 47 (56.0%) under global warming scenarios. For those ranked as 'very high' risk, the increase was from 6 (7.1%) to 21 (25.0%). Amongst the screened species, the already established high-risk species Pacific oyster Magallana gigas and Atlantic blue crab Callinectes sapidus represent a threat to ecosystem services. Given the under-representation of marine species in the current European Union List, the species we have ranked as high to very high risk should be included.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s42995-023-00196-9.

Body size and trophic position determine the outcomes of species invasions along temperature and productivity gradients

Species invasions are predicted to increase in frequency with global change, but quantitative predictions of how environmental filters and species traits influence the success and consequences of invasions for local communities are lacking. Here we investigate how invaders alter the structure, diversity and stability regime of simple communities across environmental gradients (habitat productivity, temperature) and community size structure. We simulate all three-species trophic modules (apparent and exploitative competition, trophic chain and intraguild predation). We predict that invasions most often succeed in warm and productive habitats and that successful invaders include smaller competitors, intraguild predators and comparatively small top predators. This suggests that species invasions and global change may facilitate the downsizing of food webs. Furthermore, we show that successful invasions leading to species substitutions rarely alter system stability, while invasions leading to increased diversity can destabilize or stabilize community dynamics depending on the environmental conditions and invader's trophic position.

Horizon scanning of potential threats to high-Arctic biodiversity, human health and the economy from marine invasive alien species: A Svalbard case study

The high Arctic is considered a pristine environment compared with many other regions in the northern hemisphere. It is becoming increasingly vulnerable to invasion by invasive alien species (IAS), however, as climate change leads to rapid loss of sea ice, changes in ocean temperature and salinity, and enhanced human activities. These changes are likely to increase the incidence of arrival and the potential for establishment of IAS in the region. To predict the impact of IAS, a group of experts in taxonomy, invasion biology and Arctic ecology carried out a horizon scanning exercise using the Svalbard archipelago as a case study, to identify the species that present the highest risk to biodiversity, human health and the economy within the next 10 years. A total of 114 species, currently absent from Svalbard, recorded once and/or identified only from environmental DNA samples, were initially identified as relevant for review. Seven species were found to present a high invasion risk and to potentially cause a significant negative impact on biodiversity and five species had the potential to have an economic impact on Svalbard. Decapod crabs, ascidians and barnacles dominated the list of highest risk marine IAS. Potential pathways of invasion were also researched, the most common were found associated with vessel traffic. We recommend (i) use of this approach as a key tool within the application of biosecurity measures in the wider high Arctic, (ii) the addition of this tool to early warning systems for strengthening existing surveillance measures; and (iii) that this approach is used to identify high-risk terrestrial and freshwater IAS to understand the overall threat facing the high Arctic. Without the application of biosecurity measures, including horizon scanning, there is a greater risk that marine IAS invasions will increase, leading to unforeseen changes in the environment and economy of the high Arctic.

Environmental DNA reveals patterns of biological invasion in an inland sea

Non-native species have the potential to cause ecological and economic harm to coastal and estuarine ecosystems. Understanding which habitat types are most vulnerable to biological invasions, where invasions originate, and the vectors by which they arrive can help direct limited resources to prevent or mitigate ecological and socio-economic harm. Information about the occurrence of non-native species can help guide interventions at all stages of invasion, from first introduction, to naturalization and invasion. However, monitoring at relevant scales requires considerable investment of time, resources, and taxonomic expertise. Environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding methods sample coastal ecosystems at broad spatial and temporal scales to augment established monitoring methods. We use COI mtDNA eDNA sampling to survey a diverse assemblage of species across distinct habitats in the Salish Sea in Washington State, USA, and classify each as non-native, native, or indeterminate in origin. The non-native species detected include both well-documented invaders and species not previously reported within the Salish Sea. We find a non-native assemblage dominated by shellfish and algae with native ranges in the temperate western Pacific, and find more-retentive estuarine habitats to be invaded at far higher levels than better-flushed rocky shores. Furthermore, we find an increase in invasion level with higher water temperatures in spring and summer across habitat types. This analysis contributes to a growing understanding of the biotic and abiotic factors that influence invasion level, and underscores the utility of eDNA surveys to monitor biological invasions and to better understand the factors that drive these invasions.

Global gateways as telecoupled human and natural systems: The emerging case of the Bering Strait

Numerous narrow marine passages around the world serve as essential gateways for the transportation of goods, the movement of people, and the migration of fish and wildlife. These global gateways facilitate human-nature interactions across distant regions. The socioeconomic and environmental interactions among distant coupled human and natural systems affect the sustainability of global gateways in complex ways. However, the assessment and analysis of global gateways are scattered and fragmented. To fill this knowledge gap, we frame global gateways as telecoupled human and natural systems using an emerging global gateway, the Bering Strait, as a demonstration. We examine how three telecoupling processes (tourism, vessel traffic, and natural resource development) impact and are impacted by the coupled human and natural system of the Bering Strait Region. Given that global gateways share many similarities, our analysis of the Bering Strait Region provides a foundation for the assessment of other telecoupled global gateways.

Ecological impacts of climate change on Arctic marine megafauna

Global warming affects the Arctic more than any other region. Mass media constantly relay apocalyptic visions of climate change threatening Arctic wildlife, especially emblematic megafauna such as polar bears, whales, and seabirds. Yet, we are just beginning to understand such ecological impacts on marine megafauna at the scale of the Arctic. This knowledge is geographically and taxonomically biased, with striking deficiencies in the Russian Arctic and strong focus on exploited species such as cod. Beyond a synthesis of scientific advances in the past 5 years, we provide ten key questions to be addressed by future work and outline the requested methodology. This framework builds upon long-term Arctic monitoring inclusive of local communities whilst capitalising on high-tech and big data approaches.

Invasive investigation: uptake and transport of l-leucine in the gill epithelium of crustaceans

Many aquatic species are well known as extremely successful invaders. The green crab (Carcinus maenas) is an arthropod native to European waters; however, it is now known to be a globally invasive species. Recently, it was discovered that the C. maenas could transport nutrients in the form of amino acids across their gill from the surrounding environment, a feat previously thought to be impossible in arthropods. We compared the ability for branchial amino acid transport of crustacean's native to Canadian Pacific waters to that of the invasive C. maenas, determining if this was a novel pathway in an extremely successful invasive species, or a shared trait among crustaceans. Active transport of l-leucine was exhibited in C. maenas, Metacarcinus gracilis, Metacarcinus magister, and Cancer productus across their gill epithelia. Carcinus maenas exhibited the highest maximum rate of branchial l-leucine transport at 53.7 ± 6.24 nmolg-1 h-1, over twice the rate of two native Canadian crustaceans. We also examined the influence of feeding, gill specificity, and organ accumulation of l-leucine. Feeding events displayed a heavy influence on the branchial transport rate of amino acids, increasing l-leucine transport rates by up to 10-fold in C. maenas. l-leucine displayed a significantly higher accumulation rate in the gills of C. maenas compared to the rest of the body at 4.15 ± 0.78 nmolg-1 h-1, with the stomach, hepatopancreas, eyestalks, muscle tissue, carapace and heart muscle exhibiting accumulation under 0.15 nmolg-1 h-1. For the first time, the novel transport of amino acids in Canadian native arthropods is described, suggesting that branchial amino acid transport is a shared trait among arthropods, contrary to existing literature. Further investigation is required to determine the influence of environmental temperature and salinity on transport in each species to outline any competitive advantages of the invasive C. maenas in a fluctuating estuarine environment.

Shallow-Water Bryozoan Communities in a Glacier Fjord of West Svalbard, Norway: Species Composition and Effects of Environmental Factors

Despite significant research efforts focused on benthic assemblages in West Spitsbergen, there is a lack of knowledge regarding the shallow water bryozoan communities in Grønfjorden, a glacier fjord belonging to the Isfjorden system, Norway. Here, we studied species composition, richness, distribution, and biomass of bryozoans in the intertidal and upper subtidal zones of Grønfjorden in summer. We found 62 bryozoan species, among which Celleporella hyalina (Linnaeus, 1767), Harmeria scutulata (Busk, 1855), and Tegella arctica (d'Orbigny, 1853) were most prevalent while the highest contributions to the total biomass were registered for Eucratea loricata (d'Orbigny, 1853), Tricellaria gracilis (Van Beneden, 1848), Turbicellepora incrassata (Lamarck, 1816), and Tricellaria ternata (Ellis and Solander, 1786). Alpha-diversity varied from 1 to 50 averaging 15.1 ± 2.6 species. Bryozoan biomass ranged from 0.008 to 10.758 g m^-2 with a mean value of 2.67 g m^-2 being lower than in the central and northern parts of the Barents Sea. For the first time, we registered the presence of the circumpolar bryozoan Amathia arctica in Svalbard waters probably as a result of stronger advection of Atlantic water into the fjord. Cluster analysis revealed two groups, mainly composed of stations in colder and warmer waters. A relatively high proportion of outlying stations reflected habitat heterogeneity in Grønfjorden. Redundancy analysis indicated that bryozoan diversity and biomass were strongly negatively associated with temperature. A positive relationship was found between bryozoan biomass and the proportional contribution of macrophytes to a pool of substrates. Our study provides a reference point for further monitoring of changing marine ecosystems at high latitudes.

First Record of Nematode Larvae in the Amphipod Ischyrocerus commensalis Colonizing Red King Crabs in the Barents Sea

In this study, nematodes were first reported in the amphipods, Ischyrocerus commensalis, collected from the introduced and commercially important red king crabs, Paralithodes camtschaticus, in the coastal Barents Sea in July 2022. Commensal amphipods were registered on all red king crabs captured (n = 70, prevalence 100%). Further laboratory analysis revealed that 11 out of 467 amphipod individuals (prevalence 2.4%) harbored single third-stage larvae of Hysterothylacium sp. l. (Nematoda: Anisakidae). The nematode larvae ranged from 0.63 to 6.10 mm in body length. Due to the low prevalence of nematodes and lower vulnerability of the host amphipods to fish predators, negative effects on the Barents Sea ecosystem through the range expansion of crab-associated amphipods and their parasites are unlikely.

Ecological integrity and conservation challenges in a rapidly changing Arctic: A call for new approaches in large intact landscapes

Intactness is a commonly used measure of ecological integrity, especially when evaluating conservation status at the landscape scale. We argue that in the large and relatively unfragmented landscapes of the Arctic and sub-Arctic, intactness provides only partial insight for managers charged with maintaining ecological integrity. A recent landscape assessment suggests that 95% of Alaska shows no measured direct or indirect impacts of human development on the landscape. However, the current exceptionally high levels of intactness in Alaska, and throughout the Arctic and sub-Arctic, do not adequately reflect impacts to the region's ecological integrity caused by indirect stressors, such as a rapidly changing climate and the subsequent loss of the cryosphere. Thus, it can be difficult to measure, and manage, some of the conservation challenges presented by the ecological context of these systems. The dominant drivers of change, and their associated ecological and socioeconomic impacts, vary as systems decline in ecological integrity from very high to high, and to intermediate levels, but this is not well understood in the literature. Arctic and sub-Arctic systems, as well as other large intact areas, provide unique opportunities for conservation planning, but require tools and approaches appropriate to unfragmented landscapes undergoing rapid climate-driven ecological transformation. We conclude with possible directions for developing more appropriate metrics for measuring ecological integrity in these systems.

Climate change and extreme events are changing the biology of Polar Regions

Polar landscapes and their unique biodiversity are threatened by climate change. Wild reindeer are cultural and ecological keystone species, traversing across the northern Eurasian Arctic throughout the year (Wild reindeer in the sub-Arctic in Kuhmo, Finland. Photo: Antti Leinonen, Snowchange Cooperative. Used with permission). In contrast, Antarctic terrestrial biodiversity is found on islands in the ice (or ocean) which support unique assemblages of plants and animals (King George Island, South Shetlands; photo Andrew Netherwood. Used with permission). This VSI examines how the changing climate threatens these diverse marine and terrestrial habitats and the biodiversity that they support.

Ecology and Distribution of Red King Crab Larvae in the Barents Sea: A Review

The red king crab (RKC) is a large invasive species inhabiting bottom communities in the Barents Sea. Larval stages of RKC play an important role in determining the spread and recruitment of the population in the coastal waters. We present a review of studies concerned with the ecology of RKC larvae in the Barents Sea focusing on their dynamics and role in the trophic food webs as well as on the role of environmental factors in driving RKC zoeae. Zoeal stages are larger, and their development time is shorter in the Barents Sea compared to the North Pacific. RKC larvae appear in late January–February and can be found in the coastal plankton until mid-July. Mass hatching of RKC larvae in the Barents Sea starts in late March-early April. The highest densities of RKC larvae are located in small semi-enclosed bays and inlets with weak water exchange or local eddies as well as in inner parts of fjords. Size structures of the zoeal populations are similar in the inshore waters to the west of Kola Bay but slightly differ from those in more eastern regions. RKC larvae perform daily vertical migrations and move to deeper depths during bright daylight hours and tend to rise during night hours. RKC larvae are plankton feeders that ingest both phyto- and zooplankton. A set of environmental variables including food conditions, water temperature, and advective influence are the most important factors driving the spatial distribution, phenology, survival rates, development, growth, and interannual fluctuations of RKC larvae. Recent climatic changes in the Arctic may have both negative and positive consequences for RKC larvae.

Prey Selectivity in Juvenile Red King Crabs from the Coastal Barents Sea

The invasive red king crab, Paralithodes camtschaticus, has become an abundant and important component in the food web of the coastal Barents Sea and can affect the structure and functioning of the local benthic communities through competition and predation. Although dietary composition and feeding behavior of the crab have been intensively studied, prey selectivity in this species under natural conditions remains poorly defined. For this reason, juvenile red king crabs and benthic samples were collected simultaneously at five coastal sites in Kola Bay to reveal the species composition and structure of feeding habits and the diet of red king crabs. The results of stomach and gut content analyses coupled with calculated Ivlev’s indices indicated that 2–5-year-old crabs frequently consumed bivalve mollusks in relative proportions to prey field biomasses. At all sites, juveniles selectively rejected polychaetes. In soft-bottom communities, when the average density of Bivalvia decreased, the crabs showed increased preference for Gastropoda, Crustacea, and Echinodermata. As a result of selective feeding focused on infaunal suspension-feeding mollusks, juvenile red king crabs have altered the structure of benthic communities in the mouth of Kola Bay. Our results may have important implications for evaluating the consequences of the crab introduction and its population management.

Expected contraction in the distribution ranges of demersal fish of high economic value in the Mediterranean and European Seas

Fisheries and aquaculture are facing many challenges worldwide, especially adaptation to climate change. Investigating future distributional changes of largely harvested species has become an extensive research topic, aiming at providing realistic ecological scenarios on which to build management measures, to help fisheries and aquaculture adapt to future climate-driven changes. Here, we use an ensemble modelling approach to estimate the contemporary and future distributional range of eight demersal fish species of high economic value in the Mediterranean Sea. We identify a cardinal influence of (i) temperature on fish species distributions, all being shaped by yearly mean and seasonality in sea bottom temperature, and (ii) the primary production. By assessing the effects of changes in future climate conditions under three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios over three periods of the twenty-first century, we project a contraction of the distributional range of the eight species in the Mediterranean Sea, with a general biogeographical displacement towards the North European coasts. This will help anticipating changes in future catch potential in a warmer world, which is expected to have substantial economic consequences for Mediterranean fisheries.

Predictions of sardine and the Portuguese continental shelf ecosystem dynamics under future fishing, forced-biomass and SST scenarios

We used the Ecopath with Ecosim ecosystem model to assess the future effects of multiple stressors on sardine and the Portuguese continental shelf ecosystem. We assessed individual and combined impacts of changes in sardine fishing pressure, biomass of sardine competitors and predators and sea surface temperature (SST). This study demonstrated that the greatest impact on sardine stock is caused by projected SST rise whose effect is dominant and detrimental to sardine stock regardless of other conditions, including sardine fishing at maximum sustainable yield (FMSY). The largest impact on ecosystem stability, maturity and diversity of flows was observed under the forced-biomass scenarios that simulate changes in biomass of sardine predators and competitors. Moreover, these stressors alongside FMSY are projected to play an important role in the future evolution of the sardine stock. Results presented in this study can assist long-term and strategic management of the Iberian sardine stock.

Niche breadth and biodiversity change derived from marine Amphipoda species off Iceland

Understanding the ecological requirements and thresholds of individual species is crucial to better predict potential outcomes of climate change on species distribution. In particular, species optima and lower and upper limits along resource gradients require attention. Based on Huisman‐Olff‐Fresco (HOF) models, we determined species‐specific responses along gradients of nine environmental parameters including depth in order to estimate niche attributes of 30 deep‐sea benthic amphipods occurring around Iceland. We, furthermore, examined the relationships between niche breadth, occupancy, and geographic range assuming that species with a wider niche are spatially more widely dispersed and vice versa. Overall, our results reveal that species react very differently to environmental gradients, which is independent of the family affiliation of the respective species. We could infer a strong relationship between occupancy and geographic range and also relate this to differences in niche breadth; that is specialist species with a narrow niche had a more limited distribution and may thus be more threatened by changing environmental conditions than generalist species, which are more widespread. Given the preponderance of rare species in the deep sea, this implies that many species could be at risk. However, this must be carefully weighed against geographical data gaps in this area, given that many deep‐sea areas are severely undersampled and the true distribution of most species is unknown. After all, our results underline that an accurate taxonomic classification is of crucial importance, without which ecological niche properties cannot be determined and which is hence fundamental for the assessment and understanding of changes in biodiversity in the face of increasing human perturbations.

Environmental Drivers of an Intertidal Bryozoan Community in the Barents Sea: A Case Study

Simple Summary

Bryozoans are colonial organisms that are usually found attached to solid substrata. They are known to be common components of benthic communities from the littoral zone to deep-sea areas. Despite the long history of bryozoan research in the Barents Sea, intertidal communities of this group are less studied than those at open water sites. This is particularly true for the assessment of the role of environmental factors in diversity and biomass fluctuations of Arctic bryozoan assemblages. We collected bryozoans at two adjoining coastal sites in the southern Barents Sea and detected range extension of one boreal species, which reflects a warming trend and borealization of the benthic fauna in the region. In general, the total bryozoan biomass and diversity were lower than in deep-water sites of the sea. Salinity and temperature were found to be the main predictors of bryozoan species richness and biomass, respectively, with more diverse and abundant assemblages occupying habitats with higher salinity and lower temperature. Our findings are in accordance with a general opinion that benthic communities of the coastal Barents Sea are mainly controlled by temperature regime fluctuations and freshwater runoffs.

Abstract

There is a lack of knowledge regarding the modern status of intertidal bryozoan communities in the coastal Barents Sea. Here, we studied species composition, richness, and biomass of bryozoans in Yarnyshnaya and Dalnezelenetskaya Bays, both located in the eastern part of the Kola Peninsula (Barents Sea), in summer. Species composition and biodiversity were consistent with previous research but the record of the ctenostome bryozoan Walkeriauva is the first for the region indicating eastward range expansion of this species associated with climate forcing in the Arctic. Mean biomass was relatively low accounting for 2.25 ± 0.95 g·m⁻². The most common species were Eucratea loricata, Harmeria scutulata, Crisia eburnea, and Cribrilina cryptooecium averaging 96% of the total biomass. Cluster analysis delineated two distinct groups of stations, one with true marine conditions and another with brackish water conditions. Redundancy analysis revealed that bryozoan diversity was strongly associated with salinity fluctuations being extremely low at brackish water sites. In contrast, water temperature was found to be a significant contributor to biomass with the lowest values found at warmer waters probably owing to the predominance of Boreo-Arctic species which prefer lower-temperatures. Other hydrological variables (dissolved organic matter, silicates, and oxygen) were consistent with usual summer values and had no significant effects on the bryozoan assemblages. Our study provides a reference point for further biodiversity studies in changing marine ecosystems of the Arctic region.

Exploring the Impact of Climate Change on Arctic Shipping through the Lenses of Quadruple Bottom Line and Sustainable Development Goals

Climate change is everywhere, and the Arctic is no exception. The melting sea ice has caused renewed interest in expanding maritime shipping for potentially more accessible ocean routes. Canada emerges as a natural land bridge for trade between Asia, Europe, and the Americas. Plausibly, it is not a choice but an imperative to properly integrate the stakeholders (the environment, countries, remote communities, industrial partners) in opening the Arctic Circle to the global economy while considering the challenges. Keeping sustainability front and center and drawing on the extant literature and government policies, this interdisciplinary study offers a Canadian perspective on Arctic transportation routes over tribal lands and their quadruple bottom line (QBL) impacts on the environment, economy, society, and Indigenous cultures. Unlike the arguable premise that new transport corridors will increase trade traffic and enhance the economy in Northern Canada, the QBL approach enables a more holistic and realistic strategy for the Arctic region’s sustainable development regarding regional economies, rural logistics, supply chain efficiency, and social licensing. Drawing on an integrative literature review as methodology, we highlight the QBL framework and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals as crucial policy tools. Such a holistic perspective helps stakeholders and decision makers frame better policies in identifying, assessing, adapting, and mitigating risks for transportation infrastructure exposed to climate change. We recap the impacts of Arctic Shipping (ArSh) on QBL pillars in an interaction matrix and emphasize that while ArSh may be complementary to economic development, it poses threats to the viability of the Indigenous cultures.

The Arctic Highlights Our Failure to Act in a Rapidly Changing World

In this perspective on the future of the Arctic, we explore actions taken to mitigate warming and adapt to change since the Paris agreement on the temperature threshold that should not be exceeded in order to avoid dangerous interference with the climate system. Although 5 years may seem too short a time for implementation of major interventions, it actually is a considerable time span given the urgency at which we must act if we want to avoid crossing the 1.5 to <2 °C global warming threshold. Actions required include co-production of research exploring possible futures; supporting Indigenous rights holders’ and stakeholders’ discourse on desired futures; monitoring Arctic change; funding strategic, regional adaptation; and, deep decarbonization through transformation of the energy system coupled with negative carbon emissions. We are now in the decisive decade concerning the future we leave behind for the next generations. The Arctic’s future depends on global action, and in turn, the Arctic plays a critical role in the global future.

Planetary Biosecurity: Applying Invasion Science to Prevent Biological Contamination from Space Travel

As plans for space exploration and commercial use expand rapidly, biosecurity measures and risk assessments that inform them must adapt. Sophisticated protocols are required to prevent biological contamination of extraterrestrial environments from Earth and vice versa. Such protocols should be informed by research on biological invasions—human-assisted spread of organisms into novel environments—which has revealed, inter alia, that (1) invasion risk is driven by the timing and frequency of introduction events, whose control requires addressing the least secure human activities associated with organismal transport; (2) invasions and their impacts are difficult to predict, because these phenomena are governed by context dependencies involving traits of the organism and the receiving environment; and (3) early detection and rapid response are crucial for prevention but undermined by taxonomic methods that fail to recognize what is “alien” versus what is native. Collaboration among astrobiologists, invasion biologists, and policymakers could greatly enhance planetary biosecurity protocols.

Characterization of the abiotic drivers of abundance of nearshore Arctic fishes

Fish are critical ecologically and socioeconomically for subsistence economies in the Arctic, an ecosystem undergoing unprecedented environmental change. Our understanding of the responses of nearshore Arctic fishes to environmental change is inadequate because of limited research on the physicochemical drivers of abundance occurring at a fine scale. Here, high-frequency in situ measurements of pH, temperature, salinity, and dissolved oxygen were paired with daily fish catches in nearshore Alaskan waters of the Beaufort Sea. Due to the threat that climate change poses to high-latitude marine ecosystems, our main objective was to characterize the abiotic drivers of abundance and elucidate how nearshore fish communities may change in the future. We used generalized additive models (GAMs) to describe responses to the nearshore environment for 18 fish species. Relationships between abundance and the physicochemical environment were variable between species and reflected life history. Each abiotic covariate was significant in at least one GAM, exhibiting both nonlinear and linear associations with abundance. Temperature was the most important predictor of abundance and was significant in GAMs for 11 species. Notably, pH was a significant predictor of abundance for six species: Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida), broad whitefish (Coregonus nasus), Dolly Varden (Salvelinus malma), ninespine stickleback (Pungitius pungitius), saffron cod (Eleginus gracilis), and whitespotted greenling (Hexagrammos stelleri). Broad whitefish and whitespotted greenling abundance was positively associated with pH, while Arctic cod and saffron cod abundance was negatively associated with pH. These results may be a bellwether for future nearshore Arctic fish community change by providing a foundational characterization of the relationships between abundance and the abiotic environment, particularly in regard to pH, and demonstrate the importance of including a wider range of physicochemical habitat covariates in future research.

Building on gAMBI in ports for a challenging biological invasions scenario: Blue-gNIS as a proof of concept

The status of aquatic ecosystems has historically been monitored by the use of biotic indices. However, few biotic measures consider the presence of non-indigenous species as a sign of anthropogenic pollution and habitat disturbance even when this may seriously affect the metric scores and ecological status classifications of an environment. Today, biological invasions are currently one of the greatest threats to biodiversity and sustainable blue economies around the world. In this work, environmental assessments were conducted in the Port of Gijon, Northern Spain, using eDNA metabarcoding, and the gAMBI (genetics based AZTI Marine Biotic Index) was estimated. Results indicate a high/good ecological status within the port. However, nine non-indigenous species and five invasive species were found, and a modification of the gAMBI that includes species invasiveness was proposed: Blue-gNIS. The index was preliminary tested against existing validated indices such as gAMBI, BENTIX (based on the ecology of macroinvertebrates) and ALEX (based on the invasiveness of the species). Blue-gNIS classified the port in a good ecological status and showed its potential usefulness to achieve more complete water quality assessments of ports.

Coming home - Boreal ecosystem claims Atlantic sector of the Arctic

The Atlantification of the European Arctic has been an increasingly discussed topic in polar science over the past two decades. The alteration of local marine ecosystems towards a more temperate state and the appearance/range expansion of subarctic-boreal species at higher latitudes is a complex phenomenon induced mainly by the changing properties of Atlantic water (AW) transported from the south. Areas under the direct influence of AW experience biological Atlantification of their communities on all trophic levels, resulting in the growing complexity of arctic food webs. Here, besides summarising the main documented messages of biological Atlantification, we take a critical view on the threat posed on Arctic marine communities. We take into account the formation of the Arctic marine fauna, as well as the nature of (re)colonisation of Arctic sites by boreal organisms when evaluating the extent of the issue. We take a look at the history of Arctic colonisations by boreal organisms in an attempt to identify 'neonative taxa returning home'. We also highlight the role of floating plastic debris as an 'instrument from the toolbox of the Anthropocene' aiding the distribution of marine taxa.

Successful Long-Distance Breeding Range Expansion of a Top Marine Predator

Little is known about the effects of large-scale breeding range expansions on the ecology of top marine predators. We examined the effects of a recent range expansion on the breeding and foraging ecology of Laysan albatrosses (Phoebastria immutabilis). Laysan albatrosses expanded from historical breeding colonies in the Central Pacific Ocean to the Eastern Pacific Ocean around central Baja California, Mexico, leading to a 4,000-km shift from colonies located adjacent to the productive transition zone in the Central Pacific to colonies embedded within the eastern boundary current upwelling system of the Eastern Pacific California Current. We use electronic tagging and remote sensing data to examine the consequences of this range expansion on at-sea distribution, habitat use, foraging habitat characteristics, and foraging behavior at sea by comparing birds from historic and nascent colonies. We found the expansion resulted in distinct at-sea segregation and differential access to novel oceanographic habitats. Birds from the new Eastern Pacific colony on Guadalupe Island, Mexico have reduced ranges, foraging trip lengths and durations, and spend more time on the water compared to birds breeding in the Central Pacific on Tern Island, United States. Impacts of the range expansion to the post-breeding season were less pronounced where birds maintained some at-sea segregation but utilized similar habitat and environmental variables. These differences have likely benefited the Eastern Pacific colony which has significantly greater reproductive output and population growth rates. Laysan albatrosses have the plasticity to adapt to distinctly different oceanographic habitats and also provide insight on the potential consequences of range shifts to marine organisms.

Climate Change Effects on Aquaculture Production: Sustainability Implications, Mitigation, and Adaptations

Aquaculture continues to significantly expand its production, making it the fastest-growing food production sector globally. However, the sustainability of the sector is at stake due to the predicted effects of climate change that are not only a future but also a present reality. In this paper, we review the potential effects of climate change on aquaculture production and its implications on the sector's sustainability. Various elements of a changing climate, such as rising temperatures, sea-level rise, diseases and harmful algal blooms, changes in rainfall patterns, the uncertainty of external inputs supplies, changes in sea surface salinity, and severe climatic events have been discussed. Furthermore, several adaptation options have been presented as well as some gaps in existing knowledge that require further investigations. Overall, climate change effects and implications on aquaculture production sustainability are expected to be both negative and positive although, the negative effects outweigh the positive ones. Adapting to the predicted changes in the short-term while taking mitigation measures in the long-term could be the only way toward sustaining the sector's production. However, successful adaptation will depend on the adaptive capacity of the producers in different regions of the world.

A desert in the ocean - Depauperate fouling communities on marine litter in the hyper-oligotrophic South Pacific Subtropical Gyre

The hyper-oligotrophic waters of the South Pacific Subtropical Gyre (SPSG) and the productive coastal Humboldt Current System (HCS) constitute an extreme nutrient gradient in the eastern South Pacific Ocean. Rich and dense fouling communities are known from floating objects in the HCS, but they have not been studied in the SPSG and it is not known which factors are influencing their richness and abundance. Here we present the first extensive study of rafting by marine invertebrates on floating anthropogenic debris in the eastern SPSG. We compared the effect of 9 raft-related categorical predictors on epibiont richness and fouling cover. Raft complexity was the most important predictor of richness. Fouling was dominated by thin crusts and biofilms, with more advanced communities only observed on few items. Fouling cover could not be predicted by any of the categorical factors tested. However, when tested as continuous predictors, raft volume and surface area were significantly correlated with both cover and richness. The most frequently encountered epibionts were common pelagic rafters, particularly Lepas spp., Planes spp., and Jellyella spp. Low fouling cover suggests that the SPSG's hyper-oligotrophic conditions strongly limit fouling growth, while the low frequency of coastal taxa points to the HCS/SPSG nutrient gradient acting as a filter for such organisms.

Early detection of marine non-indigenous species on Svalbard by DNA metabarcoding of sediment

Non-indigenous species (NIS) in the Arctic have an increased likelihood of arrival from ship traffic in the region, while the survival potential of the species becomes more likely in a warming environment. Monitoring is essential to detect the rate and magnitude of the establishment of NIS. In this study, a list of 123 potential marine NIS for Svalbard was drafted and the presence of marine NIS in soft sediment of Kongsfjorden in Svalbard was assessed using molecular metabarcoding techniques. For 37 species, including eight potential Arctic NIS, we generated new 18S and/or COI barcode sequences to improve the available online reference databases. In total, 299 species were identified in the sediment samples, including seven potential NIS. Three of these potential NIS have not been reported before in Svalbard: the harpacticoid copepod Euterpina acutifrons, and the ascidians Botrylloides violaceus and Molgula manhattensis. Another novel observation for Svalbard was the polychaete Chone mollis. Additional studies are needed to assess whether the NIS have been established on Svalbard and what their potential impact on the local system may be. Metabarcoding proved to be an effective monitoring tool to detect the presence of new species in Svalbard marine waters. We advise its use to set up a baseline record for the presence of NIS at points of entry, especially harbours. This approach is also valuable for biodiversity monitoring, in particular the detection of small organisms and life stages that are hard to identify using current visual techniques.

Screening for High-Risk Marine Invaders in the Hudson Bay Region, Canadian Arctic

The Canadian Arctic is receiving increased ship traffic, largely related to non-renewable resource exploitation and facilitated by climate change. This traffic, much of which arrives in ballast, increases opportunities for the spread of aquatic invasive species (AIS). One of the regions at greatest risk is the Hudson Bay Complex. A horizon scanning exercise was conducted using the semi-quantitative Canadian Marine Invasive Screening Tool (CMIST) to identify AIS of potential concern to the region. This screening-level risk assessment tool, uses documented information to answer questions related to the likelihood and impact of invasion. Species were analyzed by ecological categories (zoobenthos, zooplankton, phytobenthos) and taxonomic groups, with 14 species (out of 31) identified as being of highest relative risk. Crabs, mollusks, macrozooplankton and macroalgae were the taxonomic groups with the highest overall risk scores, through a combination of higher likelihood of invasion and impact scores relative to other taxa. Species that may pose the highest AIS risk are currently mainly distributed on the east and west coasts of the North Atlantic Ocean. Their distributions coincide with source ports and shipping pathways that are well connected to the Hudson Bay Complex. This first horizon scan to identify potential high-risk AIS for the Canadian Arctic incorporated two novel approaches into the CMIST analysis: i) use of the tool to assess two new ecological categories (phytobenthos and zooplankton), and ii) use of averaged CMIST results to interpret general risk patterns of ecological categories. This study is also the first to use CMIST scores to highlight common source regions and connected ports for the highest risk species. In a scenario of climate change and increasing ship traffic, this information can be used to support management actions such as the creation of watch lists to inform adaptive management for preventing AIS establishment, and mitigating associated environmental and economic impacts.

Potential impacts of ballast water regulations on international trade, shipping patterns, and the global economy: An integrated transportation and economic modeling assessment

Global ballast water management regulations aiming to decrease aquatic species invasion require actions that can increase shipping costs. We employ an integrated shipping cost and global economic modeling approach to investigate the impacts of ballast water regulations on bilateral trade, national economies, and shipping patterns. Given the potential need for more stringent regulation at regional hotspots of species invasions, this work considers two ballast water treatment policy scenarios: implementation of current international regulations, and a possible stricter regional regulation that targets ships traveling to and from the United States while other vessels continue to face current standards. We find that ballast water management compliance costs under both scenarios lead to modest negative impacts on international trade and national economies overall. However, stricter regulations applied to U.S. ports are expected to have large negative impacts on bilateral trade of several specific commodities for a few countries. Trade diversion causes decreased U.S. imports of some products, leading to minor economic welfare losses.

Range expansion of muskox lungworms track rapid arctic warming: implications for geographic colonization under climate forcing

Rapid climate warming in the Arctic results in multifaceted disruption of biodiversity, faunal structure, and ecosystem health. Hypotheses have linked range expansion and emergence of parasites and diseases to accelerating warming globally but empirical studies demonstrating causality are rare. Using historical data and recent surveys as baselines, we explored climatological drivers for Arctic warming as determinants of range expansion for two temperature-dependent lungworms, Umingmakstrongylus pallikuukensis and Varestrongylus eleguneniensis, of muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) and caribou (Rangifer tarandus), in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago from 1980 through 2017. Our field data shows a substantial northward shift of the northern edge of the range for both parasites and increased abundance across the expanded ranges during the last decade. Mechanistic models parameterized with parasites’ thermal requirements demonstrated that geographical colonization tracked spatial expansion of permissive environments, with a temporal lag. Subtle differences in life histories, thermal requirements of closely related parasites, climate oscillations and shifting thermal balances across environments influence faunal assembly and biodiversity. Our findings support that persistence of host-parasite assemblages reflects capacities of parasites to utilize host and environmental resources in an ecological arena of fluctuating opportunity (alternating trends in exploration and exploitation) driving shifting boundaries for distribution across spatial and temporal scales.

What and where? Predicting invasion hotspots in the Arctic marine realm

The risk of aquatic invasions in the Arctic is expected to increase with climate warming, greater shipping activity and resource exploitation in the region. Planktonic and benthic marine aquatic invasive species (AIS) with the greatest potential for invasion and impact in the Canadian Arctic were identified and the 23 riskiest species were modelled to predict their potential spatial distributions at pan-Arctic and global scales. Modelling was conducted under present environmental conditions and two intermediate future (2050 and 2100) global warming scenarios. Invasion hotspots-regions of the Arctic where habitat is predicted to be suitable for a high number of potential AIS-were located in Hudson Bay, Northern Grand Banks/Labrador, Chukchi/Eastern Bering seas and Barents/White seas, suggesting that these regions could be more vulnerable to invasions. Globally, both benthic and planktonic organisms showed a future poleward shift in suitable habitat. At a pan-Arctic scale, all organisms showed suitable habitat gains under future conditions. However, at the global scale, habitat loss was predicted in more tropical regions for some taxa, particularly most planktonic species. Results from the present study can help prioritize management efforts in the face of climate change in the Arctic marine ecosystem. Moreover, this particular approach provides information to identify present and future high-risk areas for AIS in response to global warming.

Impacts of climate change on geographical distributions of invasive ascidians

Ocean warming associated with global climate change renders marine ecosystems susceptible to biological invasions. Here, we used species distribution models to project habitat suitability for eight invasive ascidians under present-day and future climate scenarios. Distance to shore and maximum sea surface temperature were identified as the most important variables affecting species distributions. Results showed that eight ascidians might respond differently to future climate change. Alarmingly, currently colonized areas are much smaller than predicted, suggesting ascidians may expand their invasive ranges. Areas such as Americas, Europe and Western Pacific have high risks of receiving new invasions. In contrast, African coasts, excluding the Mediterranean side, are not prone to new invasions, likely due to the high sea surface temperature there. Our results highlight the importance of climate change impacts on future invasions and the need for accurate modelling of invasion risks, which can be used as guides to develop management strategies.

Scientists' warning on invasive alien species

Biological invasions are a global consequence of an increasingly connected world and the rise in human population size. The numbers of invasive alien species – the subset of alien species that spread widely in areas where they are not native, affecting the environment or human livelihoods – are increasing. Synergies with other global changes are exacerbating current invasions and facilitating new ones, thereby escalating the extent and impacts of invaders. Invasions have complex and often immense long‐term direct and indirect impacts. In many cases, such impacts become apparent or problematic only when invaders are well established and have large ranges. Invasive alien species break down biogeographic realms, affect native species richness and abundance, increase the risk of native species extinction, affect the genetic composition of native populations, change native animal behaviour, alter phylogenetic diversity across communities, and modify trophic networks. Many invasive alien species also change ecosystem functioning and the delivery of ecosystem services by altering nutrient and contaminant cycling, hydrology, habitat structure, and disturbance regimes. These biodiversity and ecosystem impacts are accelerating and will increase further in the future. Scientific evidence has identified policy strategies to reduce future invasions, but these strategies are often insufficiently implemented. For some nations, notably Australia and New Zealand, biosecurity has become a national priority. There have been long‐term successes, such as eradication of rats and cats on increasingly large islands and biological control of weeds across continental areas. However, in many countries, invasions receive little attention. Improved international cooperation is crucial to reduce the impacts of invasive alien species on biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human livelihoods. Countries can strengthen their biosecurity regulations to implement and enforce more effective management strategies that should also address other global changes that interact with invasions.

Identifying potentially invasive non-native marine and brackish water species for the Arabian Gulf and Sea of Oman

Invasive non-native species (NNS) are internationally recognized as posing a serious threat to global biodiversity, economies and human health. The identification of invasive NNS is already established, those that may arrive in the future, their vectors and pathways of introduction and spread, and hotspots of invasion are important for a targeted approach to managing introductions and impacts at local, regional and global scales. The aim of this study was to identify which marine and brackish NNS are already present in marine systems of the northeastern Arabia area (Arabian Gulf and Sea of Oman) and of these which ones are potentially invasive, and which species have a high likelihood of being introduced in the future and negatively affect biodiversity. Overall, 136 NNS were identified, of which 56 are already present in the region and a further 80 were identified as likely to arrive in the future, including fish, tunicates, invertebrates, plants and protists. The Aquatic Species Invasiveness Screening Kit (AS-ISK) was used to identify the risk of NNS being (or becoming) invasive within the region. Based on the AS-ISK basic risk assessment (BRA) thresholds, 36 extant and 37 horizon species (53.7% of all species) were identified as high risk. When the impact of climate change on the overall assessment was considered, the combined risk score (BRA+CCA) increased for 38.2% of all species, suggesting higher risk under warmer conditions, including the highest-risk horizon NNS the green crab Carcinus maenas, and the extant macro-alga Hypnea musciformis. This is the first horizon-scanning exercise for NNS in the region, thus providing a vital baseline for future management. The outcome of this study is the prioritization of NNS to inform decision-making for the targeted monitoring and management in the region to prevent new bio-invasions and to control existing species, including their potential for spread.

First mussel settlement observed in Antarctica reveals the potential for future invasions

Global biodiversity is both declining and being redistributed in response to multiple drivers characterizing the Anthropocene, including synergies between biological invasions and climate change. The Antarctic marine benthos may constitute the last biogeographic realm where barriers (oceanographic currents, climatic gradients) have not yet been broken. Here we report the successful settlement of a cohort of Mytilus cf. platensis in a shallow subtidal habitat of the South Shetland Islands in 2019, which demonstrates the ability of this species to complete its early life stages in this extreme environment. Genetic analyses and shipping records show that this observation is consistent with the dominant vectors and pathways linking southern Patagonia with the Antarctic Peninsula and demonstrates the potential for impending invasions of Antarctic ecosystems.

Contemporary climate change hinders hybrid performance of ecologically dominant marine invertebrates

Human activities alter patterns of biodiversity, particularly through species extinctions and range shifts. Two of these activities are human mediated transfer of species and contemporary climate change, and both allow previously isolated genotypes to come into contact and hybridize, potentially altering speciation rates. Hybrids have been shown to survive environmental conditions not tolerated by either parent, suggesting that, under some circumstances, hybrids may be able to expand their ranges and perform well under rapidly changing conditions. However, studies assessing how hybridization influences contemporary range shifts are scarce. We performed crosses on Pyura herdmani and Pyura stolonifera (Chordata, Tunicata), two closely related marine invertebrate species that are ecologically dominant and can hybridize. These sister species live in sympatry along the coasts of southern Africa, but one has a disjunct distribution that includes northern hemisphere sites. We experimentally assessed the performance of hybrid and parental crosses using different temperature regimes, including temperatures predicted under future climate change scenarios. We found that hybrids showed lower performance than parental crosses at the experimental temperatures, suggesting that hybrids are unlikely to expand their ranges to new environments. In turn, we found that the more widespread species performed better at a wide array of temperatures, indicating that this parental species may cope better with future conditions. This study illustrates how offspring fitness may provide key insights to predict range expansions and how contemporary climate change may mediate both the ability of hybrids to expand their ranges and the occurrence of speciation as a result of hybridization.

Vulnerability to bioinvasions: Current status, risk assessment and management of ballast water through a regional approach - the Adriatic Sea

The United Nations recognised the transfer of invasive species across natural barriers as one of the greatest pressures to the world's oceans and seas. The BWM Convention sets the global standards on ballast water management (BWM) requirements, while recognising that regional and local specifics have to be considered for its effective implementation. In the Adriatic Sea cross-border activities were conducted to provide for essential information/data and tools to support a regionally coordinated implementation of the BWM Convention. This special issue contains 18 publications that include results and recommendations from studying the ballast water and management issues through sampling of ballast water on vessels, risk assessment for exemptions and BWM, biological and chemical port baseline surveys and monitoring conducted in ports along the Adriatic Sea coast, oceanographic conditions, ballast water sediment issues and their management in ports, and the implementation options of the BWM Convention through the Adriatic States' environmental law and institutions cooperation. Essential data and tools to support a regional approach in the implementation of the BWM Convention were provided, and are therefore available to the administrations of the Adriatic countries to enable protection of the Adriatic Sea environment, human health property and resources from negative impacts of ballast water being discharged in the area. Data, approaches and tools provided here may be helpful in any other region to support an effective BWM Convention implementation.

Oxidative stress induction by the invasive sponge Paraleucilla magna growing on Peyssonnelia squamaria algae

The introduction of invasive species can lead to significant adverse effects on the colonized areas. The aim of the present research was to determine if the invasive behavior of Paraleucilla magna could induce the activation of the antioxidant defences in the native red algae, Peyssonnelia squamaria. Individuals of isolated P. squamaria and individuals epiphytized by P. magna, both growing on rocky bottoms, were collected. The activity of the antioxidant enzymes - catalase, superoxide dismutase, glutathione peroxidase and glutathione reductase - and the levels of the malondialdehyde were significantly higher in the algae of the epiphytic group compared to the control group, while the detoxifying enzyme glutathione S-transferase did not show significant differences. The levels of reduced glutathione and total polyphenols were higher in the algae affected by the sponge. In conclusion, the arrival of the species P. magna induces an adaptative antioxidant response in P. squamaria determined by the use of biomarkers.

Non-indigenous species refined national baseline inventories: A synthesis in the context of the European Union's Marine Strategy Framework Directive

Refined baseline inventories of non-indigenous species (NIS) are set per European Union Member State (MS), in the context of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD). The inventories are based on the initial assessment of the MSFD (2012) and the updated data of the European Alien Species Information Network, in collaboration with NIS experts appointed by the MSs. The analysis revealed that a large number of NIS was not reported from the initial assessments. Moreover, several NIS initially listed are currently considered as native in Europe or were proven to be historical misreportings. The refined baseline inventories constitute a milestone for the MSFD Descriptor 2 implementation, providing an improved basis for reporting new NIS introductions, facilitating the MSFD D2 assessment. In addition, the inventories can help MSs in the establishment of monitoring systems of targeted NIS, and foster cooperation on monitoring of NIS across or within shared marine subregions.

Antarctica: The final frontier for marine biological invasions

Antarctica is experiencing significant ecological and environmental change, which may facilitate the establishment of non-native marine species. Non-native marine species will interact with other anthropogenic stressors affecting Antarctic ecosystems, such as climate change (warming, ocean acidification) and pollution, with irreversible ramifications for biodiversity and ecosystem services. We review current knowledge of non-native marine species in the Antarctic region, the physical and physiological factors that resist establishment of non-native marine species, changes to resistance under climate change, the role of legislation in limiting marine introductions, and the effect of increasing human activity on vectors and pathways of introduction. Evidence of non-native marine species is limited: just four marine non-native and one cryptogenic species that were likely introduced anthropogenically have been reported freely living in Antarctic or sub-Antarctic waters, but no established populations have been reported; an additional six species have been observed in pathways to Antarctica that are potentially at risk of becoming invasive. We present estimates of the intensity of ship activity across fishing, tourism and research sectors: there may be approximately 180 vessels and 500+ voyages in Antarctic waters annually. However, these estimates are necessarily speculative because relevant data are scarce. To facilitate well-informed policy and management, we make recommendations for future research into the likelihood of marine biological invasions in the Antarctic region.

Ecological risk assessment of predicted marine invasions in the Canadian Arctic

Climate change is impacting environmental conditions, especially with respect to temperature and ice cover in high latitude regions. Predictive models and risk assessment are key tools for understanding potential changes associated with such impacts on coastal regions. In this study relative ecological risk assessment was done for future potential introductions of three species in the Canadian Arctic: periwinkle Littorina littorea, soft shell clam Mya arenaria and red king crab Paralithodes camtschaticus. These species occur in locations connected to Canadian Arctic ports through shipping and have the potential to be introduced via ballast water discharge. The methodology proposed in this study is unique in the sense that it considers not only ballast water origin, but also the distribution of the species being assessed and the sensitivity of the receiving habitat. It combines detailed information (ballast water source of each tank, transit time, time of the year when the water is released, environmental suitability of receiving habitat, impact, and habitat sensitivity) in order to assess ecological risk. Through the use of this approach it is highlighted that domestic discharge events pose a higher relative overall risk on a vessel-specific and cumulative annual bases than international discharges. The main ports of Deception Bay and Churchill were classified as being at moderate to high relative risk for L. littorea and M. arenaria, especially from domestic vessels, while relative overall risk for P. camtschaticus was low for international vessels and null for domestic vessels due to few ships transiting from its range of distribution to Canadian Arctic ports. This work can serve as an approach to help build a list of potential high risk species–a “grey” watch list–for the Canadian Arctic, and provides useful information for consideration in future decision making actions such as the identification of high risk pathways, species and ports.