Habitat area, quality and connectivity: striking the balance for efficient conservation: Area, quality and connectivity

Addressing critical gaps in protected area coverage for bird habitats in China

Currently, protected areas cover approximately 14% of the Earth's land surface, yet 12.2% of the world's bird species remain unprotected by any designated areas and face significant threats. This study investigates the current status of bird conservation in China, aiming to evaluate the effectiveness of existing protected areas, analyze why certain bird species are not adequately protected, and propose strategies for optimizing protected area configurations. Utilizing citizen science data and the zonation optimization algorithm, we comprehensively assessed the conservation value of birds in China. We then employed anthropogenic stressor data to evaluate the conservation of threatened bird habitats through a binary conflict intensity model. Finally, we conducted a spatial overlap analysis to determine the coverage and effectiveness of Chinese nature reserves in regions with high conservation value and high conflict risk. Our findings indicate that only 10.0% of the highest conservation value bird habitats are covered by protected areas, and just 7.3% of these protected areas effectively safeguard these critical habitats. Additionally, only 5.9% of bird habitats impacted by human activity conflicts are within protected areas, and merely 22.0% of the total protected areas can effectively conserve high conflict risk habitats. Overall, China's current protected area system has substantial shortcomings in safeguarding bird habitats and requires further optimization and expansion to maximize conservation benefits.

Movement of juvenile migratory birds from settlement to adulthood across the non-breeding range

Among migratory vertebrates, high levels of fidelity to non-breeding sites during adulthood are common. If occupied sites vary in quality, strong site fidelity can have profound consequences for individual fitness and population demography. Given the prevalence of adult site fidelity, the regions of the non-breeding range to which juveniles first migrate, and the scale of any subsequent movements, are likely to be pivotal in shaping distributions and demographic processes across population ranges. However, inherent difficulties in tracking migratory individuals through early life mean that opportunities to quantify juvenile settlement and movements across non-breeding ranges, and the mechanisms involved, are extremely rare. Through long-term, range-wide resightings of hundreds of colour-marked individuals from their first migration to adulthood and the application of state-space models, we quantify levels of juvenile and adult regional-scale movements and distances at different life stages across the whole non-breeding distribution range in a migratory shorebird, the Black-tailed Godwit (Limosa limosa islandica). We show that the probability of individuals changing non-breeding regions (seven historical wintering regions spanning the Western Europe range) at all ages is very low (mean movement probability = 10.9% from first to subsequent winter, and 8.3% from first adult winter to later winters). Movement between regions was also low between autumn and winter of the same year for both juveniles (mean movement probability = 17.0%) and adults (10.4%). The great majority of non-breeding movements from the first autumn to adulthood were within regions and less than 100 km. The scarcity of regional-scale non-breeding movements from the first autumn to adulthood means that the factors influencing where juveniles settle will be key determinants of non-breeding distributions and of the rate and direction of changes in distributions.

Big Cities, Big Impacts? A spatial analysis of 3,335 ecological offsets in France since 2012

This paper assesses the French policy of mitigation hierarchy, with the aim of no net loss of biodiversity, by studying the geographical aspects of the application of the concept of ecological offsets in equivalence between losses and gains using spatialized data. We seek to know whether the dynamics of urban and interurban development (notably built-up and transport infrastructures) lead to a spatially integrated implementation of biodiversity offsets taking into account local characteristics and areas under pressure from land artificialization. Our main finding reveals that the majority of ecological offsets are generated by projects related to transport infrastructures (38%) and urban planning and construction projects (23%). However, if there are fewer, the ecological offsets of projects such as waste storage or energy development are mostly located in natural preserved areas, revealing a potential risk of non additionnality of offset measures and a risk that the private sector (through ecological offsets) will gradually replace the state in the protection of biodiversity. Our analysis also points out that despite the diversity of projects, habitats and protected species across France, there is a typical spatial layout profile of ecological offsets, pleading for a "one size fits all" offsetting in the French policy context of tenuous regulators' availability in time and competence level due to weakness of refresh training and downsizing of public services in the environment. This last result argues for a stronger control from environmental agencies between two tremendously tricky concepts of offsetting, the equivalence valuation methods and the adjustments coefficients (time delay and ecological risk), to drive ecological offsetting future decisions at local but above all regional- and national-level planning documents.

Comprehensive conservation assessments reveal high extinction risks across Atlantic Forest trees

Biodiversity is declining globally, yet many biodiversity hotspots still lack comprehensive species conservation assessments. Using multiple International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria to evaluate extinction risks and millions of herbarium and forest inventory records, we present automated conservation assessments for all tree species of the Atlantic Forest biodiversity hotspot, including ~1100 heretofore unassessed species. About 65% of all species and 82% of endemic species are classified as threatened. We rediscovered five species classified as Extinct on the IUCN Red List and identified 13 endemics as possibly extinct. Uncertainties in species information had little influence on the assessments, but using fewer Red List criteria severely underestimated threat levels. We suggest that the conservation status of tropical forests worldwide is worse than previously reported.

Improving climate and biodiversity outcomes through restoration of forest integrity

Targeting degraded areas in forested landscapes for restoration could deliver rapid climate mitigation and biodiversity conservation, improve resilience of forested lands to future climate change, and potentially reduce the trade-offs between nature recovery and agriculture. Although the importance of forest restoration for climate mitigation is acknowledged, current estimates of its climate mitigation potential may be underestimated because they focus predominantly on reforesting cleared areas. We built on recent analyses of forest integrity and unrealized forest biomass potential to examine the potential for restoring the integrity of degraded forests. There are over 1.5 billion ha of forests worldwide that retain 50-80% of their potential biomass. Prioritizing restoration in these areas could deliver rapid biodiversity and climate mitigation benefits, relative to restoring forest on cleared land. We applied a spatial planning approach to demonstrate how restoration interventions can be targeted to support the conservation of high-integrity forest, a potential pathway to the delivery of the 30×30 goal of the Convention on Biodiversity's Global Biodiversity Framework.

Using social-ecological models to explore stream connectivity outcomes for stakeholders and Yellowstone cutthroat trout

Despite growing interest in conservation and re-establishment of ecological connectivity, few studies have explored its context-specific social-ecological outcomes. We aimed to explore social and ecological outcomes to changing stream connectivity for both stakeholders and native fish species impacted by habitat fragmentation and nonnative species. We (1) investigated stakeholder perceptions of the drivers and outcomes of stream connectivity, and (2) evaluated the effects of stakeholder-identified connectivity and nonnative species scenarios on Yellowstone cutthroat trout (YCT) populations. Our study was conducted in the Teton River, Idaho, USA. We integrated two modeling approaches, mental modeling and individual-based ecological modeling, to explore social-ecological outcomes for stakeholders and YCT populations. Aggregation of mental models revealed an emergent pattern of increasing complexity as more types of stakeholders were considered, as well as gaps and linkages among different stakeholder knowledge areas. These results highlight the importance of knowledge sharing among stakeholders when making decisions about connectivity. Additionally, the results from the individual-based models suggested that the potential for a large, migratory life history form of YCT, in addition to self-preference mating where they overlap with rainbow trout, had the strongest effects on outcomes for YCT. Exploring social and ecological drivers and outcomes to changing connectivity is useful for anticipating and adapting to unintended outcomes, as well as making decisions for desirable outcomes. The results from this study can contribute to the management dialogue surrounding stream connectivity in the Teton River, as well as to our understanding of connectivity conservation and its outcomes more broadly.

Drivers of habitat quality for a reintroduced elk herd

Understanding spatiotemporal variation in habitat quality is essential for guiding wildlife reintroduction and restoration programs. The habitat productivity hypothesis posits that home range size is inversely related to habitat quality. Thus, home range size may be used as a proxy for habitat quality and can identify important land cover features for a recovering species. We sought to quantify variation in home range size across the biological cycle (seasons) for a reintroduced elk (Cervus canadensis) population in southwestern Virginia, USA and quantify habitat quality by linking home range sizes to the land cover types they contain using linear mixed-effects models. We found mean home range size was largest during late gestation for female elk. Additionally, throughout the year, smaller home ranges were associated with larger proportions of non-forested habitats whereas forested habitats were generally the opposite. However, both presumed poor- and high-quality habitats influenced female elk space use. Our approach revealed spatial variation in habitat quality for a recovering elk herd, demonstrated the importance of non-forested habitats to elk, can guide decisions regarding the location of future elk reintroduction programs, and serve as a model for evaluating habitat quality associated with wildlife reintroductions.

Habitat restoration weakens negative environmental effects on telomere dynamics

Habitat quality can have far-reaching effects on organismal fitness, an issue of concern given the current scale of habitat degradation. Many temperate upland streams have reduced nutrient levels due to human activity. Nutrient restoration confers benefits in terms of invertebrate food availability and subsequent fish growth rates. Here we test whether these mitigation measures also affect the rate of cellular ageing of the fish, measured in terms of the telomeres that cap the ends of eukaryotic chromosomes. We equally distributed Atlantic salmon eggs from the same 30 focal families into 10 human-impacted oligotrophic streams in northern Scotland. Nutrient levels in five of the streams were restored by simulating the deposition of a small number of adult Atlantic salmon Salmo salar carcasses at the end of the spawning period, while five reference streams were left as controls. Telomere lengths and expression of the telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT) gene that may act to lengthen telomeres were then measured in the young fish when 15 months old. While TERT expression was unrelated to any of the measured variables, telomere lengths were shorter in salmon living at higher densities and in areas with a lower availability of the preferred substrate (cobbles and boulders). However, the adverse effects of these habitat features were much reduced in the streams receiving nutrients. These results suggest that adverse environmental pressures are weakened when nutrients are restored, presumably because the resulting increase in food supply reduces levels of both competition and stress.

Reconciling cities with nature: Identifying local Blue-Green Infrastructure interventions for regional biodiversity enhancement

Increasing urbanization degrades quantity, quality, and the functionality of spatial cohesion of natural areas essential to biodiversity and ecosystem functioning worldwide. The uncontrolled pace of building activity and the erosion of blue (i.e., aquatic) and green (i.e., terrestrial) landscape elements threaten existing habitat ranges and movability of wildlife. Local scale measures, such as nature-inspired engineered Blue-Green Infrastructure (BGI) are emerging mitigation solutions. Originally planned to promote sustainable stormwater management, adaptation to climate change and improved human livability in cities, such instruments offer interesting synergies for biodiversity in support of existing ecological infrastructure. BGI are especially appealing for globally declining amphibians, a rich and diverse vertebrate assemblage sensitive to urbanization. We integrated biological and highly resolved urban-rural land-cover data, ensemble models of habitat suitability, and connectivity models based on circuit theory to improve multi-scale and multi-species protection of core habitats and ecological corridors in the Swiss lowlands. Considering a broad spectrum of amphibian biodiversity, we identified distributions of amphibian biodiversity hotspots and four landscape elements essential to amphibian movability at the regional scale, namely i) forest edges, ii) wet-forest habitats, iii) soils with variable moisture and iv) riparian zones. Our work shows that cities can make a substantial contribution (e.g., up to 15% of urban space in the study area) to wider landscape habitat connectivity. We highlight the importance of planning BGI locally in strategic locations across urban and peri-urban areas to promote the permeability and availability of 'stepping stone' habitats in densely populated landscapes, essential to the maintenance of regional habitat connectivity and thereby enhancing biodiversity and ecosystem functioning.

Island biogeography at the mesoscale: Distance from forest edge affects choice of patch size by ovipositing treefrogs

Diversity in habitat patches is partly driven by variation in patch size, which affects extinction, and isolation, which affects immigration. Patch size also affects immigration as a component of patch quality. In wetland ecosystems, where variation in patch size and interpatch distance is ubiquitous, relationships between size and isolation may involve trade‐offs. We assayed treefrog oviposition at three patch sizes in arrays of two types, one where size increased with distance from forest (dispersed) and one with all patches equidistant from forest (equidistant), testing directly for an interaction between patch size and distance, which was highly significant. Medium patches in dispersed arrays received more eggs than those in equidistant arrays as use of typically preferred larger patches was reduced in dispersed arrays. Our results demonstrated a habitat selection trade‐off between preferred large and less‐preferred medium patches across small‐scale variation in isolation. Such patch size/isolation relationships are critical to community assembly and to understanding how diversity is maintained within a metapopulation and metacommunity framework, especially as wetland habitat becomes increasingly rare and fragmented. These results bring lessons of island biogeography, writ large, to bear on questions at small scales where ecologists often work and where habitat restoration is most often focused.

An Innovative Framework on Spatial Boundary Optimization of Multiple International Designated Land Use

The continuous improvement of international protection awareness has dramatically increased the number of protection organizations and promoted various reserve-naming methods. However, the existing global natural reserves have either fully or partially overlapped, thereby allowing the same region to hold various international titles, resulting in serious issues, which are especially manifested in the boundary delimitation process of natural reserves. Therefore, delimiting the titles of reserve borders will become an enormous challenge in protected-area governance worldwide. This study conducted an in-depth investigation of the technical methods for delineating the spatial boundaries of natural reserves. Taking Jiangshan Nature Reserve in China as the case object, the Candidate Area–Natural background–Heritage Resource–Construction (C-NHC) framework was constructed, and the boundaries of the new reserves were delineated. This study has changed the status quo of the spatial overlap of the reserve through the quantitative evaluation of the conflict patches and the triple optimization of the boundary of the reserve. The area of the new reserve is 150.524 km2, which is 6.682 km2 larger than the original one. The original reserves are all included within the scope of the new one. This study provides guidance and new insights into the boundary delineation of integrated nature reserves worldwide.

Environmental and behavioral factors influencing individual variation in spatial use by Guiana dolphins (Sotalia guianensis)

Marine apex predators, such as coastal dolphins, are key components of ecosystem function and dynamics; understanding their spatial use therefore is important for conservation planning. Here, we describe spatial use of the threatened Guiana dolphin, Sotalia guianensis, within a mosaic of protected areas at their southern range in the Paranaguá estuarine complex (PEC), Brazil. Based on environmental characteristics and S. guianensis population densities, individual photo-identification surveys were focused on two sectors of the northern mouth of the PEC between 2013 and 2015. We photo-identified 107 individuals and recorded 351 groups of Guiana dolphins; nearly 50% of which contained calves. Group sizes were small (mean ± SD: Sector 1 = 3.4 ± 2.7; Sector 2 = 3.6 ± 2.0) and ranged from 1 to 30 individuals. Clustering algorithms were applied to resighted, photo-identified Guiana dolphins to classify individuals as “residents” (sighted in 87% of surveys, n = 11) and “transients” (two clusters; 62%, n = 22; 95%, n = 72). All individuals predominantly were observed foraging (90% in Sector 1 and 76% in Sector 2), but spatial use by transient individuals differed from the residents in terms of environmental (slope, water depth, and rainfall) and behavioral factors (presence of calves and foraging behavior). Compared to transients, resident dolphins ranged over smaller areas, typically more suitable for feeding, calf caring, and more protected from predators and vessels. Because resident Guiana dolphins exhibit small home ranges, they are particularly vulnerable to local anthropogenic activities and habitat loss. These characteristics imply a strong need for regionalized management plans to reduce negative impacts and to maintain the ecological functionality of the species.

The role of neutral and adaptive genomic variation in population diversification and speciation in two ground squirrel species of conservation concern

Understanding the neutral (demographic) and adaptive processes leading to the differentiation of species and populations is a critical component of evolutionary and conservation biology. In this context, recently diverged taxa represent a unique opportunity to study the process of genetic differentiation. Northern and southern Idaho ground squirrels (Urocitellus brunneus - NIDGS, and U. endemicus - SIDGS, respectively) are a recently diverged pair of sister species that have undergone dramatic declines in the last 50 years and are currently found in metapopulations across restricted spatial areas with distinct environmental pressures. Here we genotyped single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from buccal swabs with restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (RADseq). With these data we evaluated neutral genetic structure at both theinter- and intraspecific level, and identified putatively adaptive SNPs using population structure outlier detection and genotype-environment association (GEA) analyses. At the interspecific level, we detected a clear separation between NIDGS and SIDGS, and evidence for adaptive differentiation putatively linked to torpor patterns. At the intraspecific level, we found evidence of both neutral and adaptive differentiation. For NIDGS, elevation appears to be the main driver of adaptive differentiation, while neutral variation patterns match and expand information on the low connectivity between some populations identified in previous studies using microsatellite markers. For SIDGS, neutral substructure generally reflected natural geographic barriers, while adaptive variation reflected differences in land cover and temperature, as well as elevation. These results clearly highlight the roles of neutral and adaptive processes for understanding the complexity of the processes leading to species and population differentiation, which can have important conservation implications in susceptible and threatened species.

Quantitatively Assessing Ecological Stress of Urbanization on Natural Ecosystems by Using a Landscape-Adjacency Index

Urban spatial expansion poses a threat to regional ecosystems and biodiversity directly through altering the size, shape, and interconnectivity of natural landscapes. Monitoring urban spatial expansion using traditional area-based metrics from remote sensing provides a feasible way to quantify this regional ecological stress. However, variation in landscape-adjacency relationships (i.e., the adjacency between individual landscape classes) caused by urban expansion is often overlooked. In this study, a novel edge-based index (landscape-adjacency index, LAdI) was proposed based on the spatial-adjacency relationship between landscape patches to measure the regional ecological stress of urban expansion on natural landscapes. Taking the entire Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomerations (YRD) as a study area, we applied the LAdI for individual landscape classes (Vi) and landscape level (LV) to quantitatively assess change over time in the ecological stress of YRD from 1990 to 2015 at two spatial scales: municipal scale and 5 km-grid scale. The results showed that the vulnerable zones (LV ≥ 0.6) were mainly distributed in the north of the YRD, and cultivated land was the most vulnerable natural landscape (Vi ≥ 0.6) at the 5 km-grid scale. The most vulnerable landscape at the municipal scale was cultivated land in 19 of 26 cities in each period, and that in the remaining 7 cities varied at distinct urbanization stages. We used scatter diagrams and Pearson correlation analysis to compare the edge-based LAdI with an area-based index (percent of built-up area, PB) and found that: LV and PB had a significant positive correlation at both the municipal scale and 5 km-grid scale. But there were multiple LVs with different values corresponding to one PB with the same value at the 5 km-grid scale. Both indexes could represent the degree of urban expansion; however, the edge-based metric better quantified ecological stress under different urban-sprawl patterns sharing the same percent of built-up area. As changes in land use affect both the size and edge effect among landscape patches, the area-based PB and the edge-based LAdI should be applied together when assessing the ecological stress caused by urbanization.

Assessment of semi-natural habitats and landscape features on Irish farmland: New insights to inform EU Common Agricultural Policy implementation

Concerns over the loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services in farmland have prompted the development of agri-environment policy measures aimed at reducing farming pressure and maintaining semi-natural habitats in farmed landscapes. However, further knowledge is needed to guarantee successful agri-environment measures implementation. The current study assessed the quantity and the quality of semi-natural habitats in farms across a gradient of farming intensities in two contrasting regions in Ireland. Policy protection seemed fundamental for semi-natural habitats preservation. Habitats not protected by agricultural policy relied on extensive farming and are in danger of disappearing if they are intensified or abandoned. Due to the lack of policy incentives for habitat quality, no correlations were found between farming intensity and share of semi-natural habitats with habitat quality. Therefore, extensive farming and retention of habitats alone may not reverse the decline of farmland quality and biodiverisity and, thus, measures incentivising the environmental quality may be more successful.

Pooling biodiversity offsets to improve habitat connectivity and species conservation

Land developers can apply biodiversity offsetting in different ways, from a project-by-project approach to a pooled and proactive approach, this latter appearing to provide greater advantages both in terms of implementation and of the No Net Loss objective. Incorporating landscape connectivity into the mitigation hierarchy is commonly recommended, but the benefits of pooling and anticipating offsets have never really been demonstrated from modeling approaches. Here, we compare connectivity gains from two different offsetting scenarios, when interconnections at offset sites are taken and not taken into account. Assuming that gains can be increased by optimizing the location of offsets, we identified sites where biodiversity offsetting generates the greatest ecological gains in habitat connectivity. The method was applied to a study case in the suburbs of Lyon (Southern France) using several representative species and the landscape functional connectivity model Graphab. Pooling biodiversity offsets led to additional gains in overall habitat connectivity of +103% on average, which we show can be further improved (+8%) by using a patch addition process available in Graphab to plan spatially and ecologically coherent offsetting areas. Pooling and anticipating biodiversity offsets in this way can help preserve the biodiversity and the functionality of natural environments at the territorial scale.

Habitat Fragmentation Increases Overall Richness, but Not of Habitat-Dependent Species

Debate rages as to whether habitat fragmentation leads to the decline of biodiversity once habitat loss is accounted for. Previous studies have defined fragmentation variously, but research needs to address “fragmentation per se,” which excludes confounding effects of habitat loss. Our study controls for habitat area and employs a mechanistic multi-species simulation to explore processes that may lead some species groups to be more or less sensitive to fragmentation per se. Our multi-land-cover, landscape-scale, individual-based model incorporates the movement of generic species, each with different land cover preferences. We investigate how fragmentation per se changes diversity patterns; within (alpha), between (beta) and across (gamma) patches of a focal-land-cover, and if this differs among species groups according to their specialism and dependency on this focal-land-cover. We defined specialism as the increased competitive ability of specialists in suitable habitat and decreased ability in less suitable land covers compared to generalist species. We found fragmentation per se caused an increase in gamma diversity in the focal-land-cover if we considered all species regardless of focal-land-cover preference. However, critically for conservation, the gamma diversity of species for whom the focal land cover is suitable habitat declined under fragmentation per se. An exception to this finding occurred when these species were specialists, who were unaffected by fragmentation per se. In general, focal-land-cover species were under pressure from the influx of other species, with fragmentation per se leading to a loss of alpha diversity not compensated for by increases in beta diversity and, therefore, gamma diversity fell. The specialist species, which were more competitive, were less affected by the influx of species and therefore alpha diversity decreased less with fragmentation per se and beta diversity compensated for this loss, meaning gamma diversity did not decrease. Our findings help to inform the fragmentation per se debate, showing that effects on biodiversity can be negative or positive, depending on species’ competitive abilities and dependency on the fragmented land cover. Such differences in the effect of fragmentation per se would have important consequences for conservation. Focusing conservation efforts on reducing or preventing fragmentation in areas with species vulnerable to fragmentation.

The demographic contributions of connectivity versus local dynamics to population growth of an endangered bird

Conservation and management increasingly focus on connectivity, because connectivity driven by variation in immigration rates across landscapes is thought to be crucial for maintaining local population and metapopulation persistence. Yet, efforts to quantify the relative role of immigration on population growth across the entire range of species and over time have been lacking. We assessed whether immigration limited local and range-wide population growth of the endangered snail kite Rostrhamus sociabilis in Florida, USA, over 18 years using multi-state, reverse-time modelling that accounts for imperfect detection of individuals and unobservable states. Demographic contributions of immigration varied depending on the dynamics and geographic position of the local populations, were scale-dependent and changed over time. By comparing the relative contributions of immigration versus local demography for periods of significant change in local abundance, we found empirical evidence for a disproportionately large role of immigration in facilitating population growth of a centrally located population-a connectivity 'hub'. The importance of connectivity changed depending of the spatial scale considered, such that immigration was a more important driver of population growth at small versus large spatial scales. Furthermore, the contribution of immigration was much greater during time periods when local population size was small, emphasizing abundance-dependent rescue effects. Our findings suggest that efforts aimed at improving local breeding habitat will likely be most effective at increasing snail kite population growth. More broadly, our results provide much needed information on the role of connectivity for population growth, suggesting that connectivity conservation may have the greatest benefits when efforts focus on centrally located habitat patches and small populations. Furthermore, our results highlight that connectivity is highly dynamic over time and that interpreting the effects of connectivity at local scales may not transfer to region-wide dynamics.

Land-cover change threatens tropical forests and biodiversity in the Littoral Region, Cameroon

Tropical forest regions in equatorial Africa are threatened with degradation, deforestation and biodiversity loss as a result of land-cover change. We investigated historical land-cover dynamics in unprotected forested areas of the Littoral Region in south-western Cameroon during 1975–2017, to detect changes that may influence this important biodiversity and wildlife area. Processed Landsat imagery was used to map and monitor changes in land use and land cover. From 1975 to 2017 the area of high-value forest landscapes decreased by c. 420,000 ha, and increasing forest fragmentation caused a decline of c. 12% in the largest patch index. Conversely, disturbed vegetation, cleared areas and urban areas all expanded in extent, by 32% (c. 400,000 ha), 5.6% (c. 26,800 ha) and 6.6% (c. 78,631 ha), respectively. The greatest increase was in the area converted to oil palm plantations (c. 26,893 ha), followed by logging and land clearing (c. 34,838 ha), all of which were the major factors driving deforestation in the study area. Our findings highlight the increasing threats facing the wider Littoral Region, which includes Mount Nlonako and Ebo Forest, both of which are critical areas for regional conservation and the latter a proposed National Park and the only sizable area of intact forest in the region. Intact forest in the Littoral Region, and in particular at Ebo, merits urgent protection.

Landscape structure and climate drive population dynamics of an insect vector within intensely managed agroecosystems

Characterizing factors affecting insect pest populations across variable landscapes is a major challenge for agriculture. In natural ecosystems, insect populations are strongly mediated by landscape and climatic factors. However, it has proven difficult to evaluate if similar factors predict pest dynamics in agroecosystems because control tactics exert strong confounding effects. We addressed this by assessing whether species distribution models could effectively characterize dynamics of an insect pest in intensely managed agroecosystems. Our study used a regional multi-year data set to assess landscape and climatic drivers of potato psyllid (Bactericera cockerelli) populations, which are often subjected to calendar-based insecticide treatments because they transmit pathogens to crops. Despite this, we show that psyllid populations were strongly affected by landscape and climatic factors. Psyllids were more abundant in landscapes with high connectivity, low crop diversity, and large natural areas. Psyllid population dynamics were also mediated by climatic factors, particularly precipitation and humidity. Our results show that many of the same factors that drive insect population dynamics in natural ecosystems can have similar effects in an intensive agroecosystem. More broadly, our study shows that models incorporating landscape and climatic factors can describe pest populations in agroecosystems and may thus promote more sustainable pest management.

Landscape context and nutrients modify the effects of coastal urbanisation

Estuaries are focal points for coastal cities worldwide, their habitats frequently transformed into engineered shorelines abutting waters with elevated nutrients in an urbanised landscape. Here we test for relationships between shoreline armouring and nutrients on the diversity and trophic composition of fish assemblages across 22 estuaries in eastern Australia. Urbanisation was associated with fish diversity and abundance, but there were differences in the effects of shoreline armouring and nutrient level on the trophic composition of fish assemblages. Fish diversity and the abundance of most trophic groups, particularly omnivores, zoobenthivores and detritivores, was greatest in highly urban estuaries. We show that estuarine fish assemblages are associated with urbanisation in more nuanced ways than simple habitat transformation would suggest, but this depends on the broader environmental context. Our findings have wider implications for estuarine conservation and restoration, emphasizing that ecological benefits of habitat measures may depend on both landscape attributes and water quality in urban settings.

Corralling a black swan: natural range of variation in a forest landscape driven by rare, extreme events

The natural range of variation (NRV) is an important reference for ecosystem management, but has been scarcely quantified for forest landscapes driven by infrequent, severe disturbances. Extreme events such as large, stand-replacing wildfires at multi-century intervals are typical for these regimes; however, data on their characteristics are inherently scarce, and, for land management, these events are commonly considered too large and unpredictable to integrate into planning efforts (the proverbial "Black Swan"). Here, we estimate the NRV of late-seral (mature/old-growth) and early-seral (post-disturbance, pre-canopy-closure) conditions in a forest landscape driven by episodic, large, stand-replacing wildfires: the Western Cascade Range of Washington, USA (2.7 million ha). These two seral stages are focal points for conservation and restoration objectives in many regions. Using a state-and-transition simulation approach incorporating uncertainty, we assess the degree to which NRV estimates differ under a broad range of literature-derived inputs regarding (1) overall fire rotations and (2) how fire area is distributed through time, as relatively frequent smaller events (less episodic), or fewer but larger events (more episodic). All combinations of literature-derived fire rotations and temporal distributions (i.e., "scenarios") indicate that the largest wildfire events (or episodes) burned up to 10⁵ -10⁶  ha. Under most scenarios, wildfire dynamics produced 5th-95th percentile ranges for late-seral forests of ~47-90% of the region (median 70%), with structurally complex early-seral conditions composing ~1-30% (median 6%). Fire rotation was the main determinant of NRV, but temporal distribution was also important, with more episodic (temporally clustered) fire yielding wider NRV. In smaller landscapes (20,000 ha; typical of conservation reserves and management districts), ranges were 0-100% because fires commonly exceeded the landscape size. Current conditions are outside the estimated NRV, with the majority of the region instead covered by dense mid-seral forests (i.e., a regional landscape with no historical analog). Broad consistency in NRV estimates among widely varied fire regime parameters suggests these ranges are likely relevant even under changing climatic conditions, both historical and future. These results indicate management-relevant NRV estimates can be derived for seral stages of interest in extreme-event landscapes, even when incorporating inherent uncertainties in disturbance regimes.

Patch Size as a Niche Dimension: Aquatic Insects Behaviorally Partition Enemy-Free Space across Gradients of Patch Size

Positive correlation of species richness with area is ubiquitous in nature, but the processes driving that relationship, as well as those constraining typical patterns, remain elusive. Patch size variation is pervasive in natural systems, and it is thus critical to understand how variation in patch size, as well as its potential interaction with factors like predation and isolation, affects community assembly. We crossed patch quality (fish presence/absence) with patch size to the examine effects of quality, size, and their interaction on colonization by aquatic insects. Overall, beetles favored small, fishless patches, but individual species sorted across patch size while hemipterans aggregated into large, fishless patches, producing sorting between Coleoptera and Hemiptera. Both patch size and predation risk generated significant variation in community structure and diversity. Patch size preferences for the 14 most abundant species and preeminence of species turnover in patterns of β-diversity reinforce patch size as a driver of regional species sorting via habitat selection. Species sorting at the immigration stage plays a critical role in community assembly. Identifying patch size as a component of perceived quality establishes patch size as a critical niche dimension and alters our view of its role in assembly dynamics and the maintenance of local and regional diversity.

Predicting species occurrences with habitat network models

Biodiversity conservation requires modeling tools capable of predicting the presence or absence (i.e., occurrence-state) of species in habitat patches. Local habitat characteristics of a patch (lh), the cost of traversing the landscape matrix between patches (weighted connectivity [wc]), and the position of the patch in the habitat network topology (nt) all influence occurrence-state. Existing models are data demanding or consider only local habitat characteristics. We address these shortcomings and present a network-based modeling approach, which aims to predict species occurrence-state in habitat patches using readily available presence-only records.For the tree frog Hyla arborea in the Swiss Plateau, we delineated habitat network nodes from an ensemble habitat suitability model and used different cost surfaces to generate the edges of three networks: one limited only by dispersal distance (Uniform), another incorporating traffic, and a third based on inverse habitat suitability. For each network, we calculated explanatory variables representing the three categories (lh, wc, and nt). The response variable, occurrence-state, was parametrized by a sampling intensity procedure assessing observations of comparable species over a threshold of patch visits. The explanatory variables from the three networks and an additional non-topological model were related to the response variable with boosted regression trees.The habitat network models had a similar fit; they all outperformed the non-topological model. Habitat suitability index (lh) was the most important predictor in all networks, followed by third-order neighborhood (nt). Patch size (lh) was unimportant in all three networks.We found that topological variables of habitat networks are relevant for the prediction of species occurrence-state, a step-forward from models considering only local habitat characteristics. For any habitat patch, occurrence-state is most prominently influenced by its habitat suitability and then by the number of patches in a wide neighborhood. Our approach is generic and can be applied to multiple species in different habitats.

Envisioning Present and Future Land-Use Change under Varying Ecological Regimes and Their Influence on Landscape Stability

Climate change plays an important role in shaping ecological stability of landscape systems. Increasing weather fluctuations such as droughts threaten the ecological stability of natural and anthropogenic landscapes. Uncertainty exists regarding the validity of traditional landscape assessment schemes under climate change. This commentary debates the main factors that threaten ecological stability, discussing basic approaches to interpret landscape functioning. To address this pivotal issue, the intimate linkage between ecological stability and landscape diversity is explored, considering different approaches to landscape stability assessment. The impact of land-use changes on landscape stability is finally discussed. Assessment methodologies and indicators are reviewed and grouped into homogeneous classes based on a specific nomenclature of stability aspects which include landscape composition, fragmentation and connectivity, thermodynamic and functional issues, biodiversity, soil degradation, and ecological disturbance. By considering land-use change as one of the most important factors underlying climate change, individual components of landscape stability are finally delineated and commented upon. In this regard, specific trajectories of land-use change (including agricultural intensification, land abandonment, and urbanization) are investigated for their effects on ecological stability. A better understanding of land-use impacts on landscape stability is crucial for a better knowledge of processes leading to land degradation.

Herbivore corridors sustain genetic footprint in plant populations: a case for Spanish drove roads

Habitat fragmentation is one of the greatest threats to biodiversity conservation and ecosystem productivity mediated by direct human impact. Its consequences include genetic depauperation, comprising phenomena such as inbreeding depression or reduction in genetic diversity. While the capacity of wild and domestic herbivores to sustain long-distance seed dispersal has been proven, the impact of herbivore corridors in plant population genetics remains to be observed. We conducted this study in the Conquense Drove Road in Spain, where sustained use by livestock over centuries has involved transhumant herds passing twice a year en route to winter and summer pastures. We compared genetic diversity and inbreeding coefficients of Plantago lagopus populations along the drove road with populations in the surrounding agricultural matrix, at varying distances from human settlements. We observed significant differences in coefficients of inbreeding between the drove road and the agricultural matrix, as well as significant trends indicative of higher genetic diversity and population nestedness around human settlements. Trends for higher genetic diversity along drove roads may be present, although they were only marginally significant due to the available sample size. Our results illustrate a functional landscape with human settlements as dispersal hotspots, while the findings along the drove road confirm its role as a pollinator reservoir observed in other studies. Drove roads may possibly also function as linear structures that facilitate long-distance dispersal across the agricultural matrix, while local P. lagopus populations depend rather on short-distance seed dispersal. These results highlight the role of herbivore corridors for conserving the migration capacity of plants, and contribute towards understanding the role of seed dispersal and the spread of invasive species related to human activities.

Integration of ground survey and remote sensing derived data: Producing robust indicators of habitat extent and condition

The availability of suitable habitat is a key predictor of the changing status of biodiversity. Quantifying habitat availability over large spatial scales is, however, challenging. Although remote sensing techniques have high spatial coverage, there is uncertainty associated with these estimates due to errors in classification. Alternatively, the extent of habitats can be estimated from ground-based field survey. Financial and logistical constraints mean that on-the-ground surveys have much lower coverage, but they can produce much higher quality estimates of habitat extent in the areas that are surveyed. Here, we demonstrate a new combined model which uses both types of data to produce unified national estimates of the extent of four key habitats across Great Britain based on Countryside Survey and Land Cover Map. This approach considers that the true proportion of habitat per km2 (Zi ) is unobserved, but both ground survey and remote sensing can be used to estimate Zi . The model allows the relationship between remote sensing data and Zi to be spatially biased while ground survey is assumed to be unbiased. Taking a statistical model-based approach to integrating field survey and remote sensing data allows for information on bias and precision to be captured and propagated such that estimates produced and parameters estimated are robust and interpretable. A simulation study shows that the combined model should perform best when error in the ground survey data is low. We use repeat surveys to parameterize the variance of ground survey data and demonstrate that error in this data source is small. The model produced revised national estimates of broadleaved woodland, arable land, bog, and fen, marsh and swamp extent across Britain in 2007.

Optimisation Model of Dispersal Simulations on a Dendritic Habitat Network

To predict and mitigate biodiversity loss, a better understanding of species distribution and reliable dispersal models are required. A promising approach in dispersal simulation is the method of spatially explicit graph-based analysis. While graph theory is strongly connected to the field of optimisation in a variety of disciplines, the potential of optimisation has not yet been exploited in dispersal models. We introduce an optimisation model built on a graph-based dispersal simulation of an aquatic invertebrate species with a terrestrial life stage. The model simulates a directed dispersal process and investigates the fastest route to colonise predefined vacant habitat patches. The optimisation model run-time is in general an order of magnitude faster than the underlying simulation and provides the minimum time until the considered habitat patches are colonised under the given landscape structure. These results can then be used to estimate how fast newly formed habitat patches can be reached and colonised. Our model can in principle be adapted to other simulation models and can thus be seen as a pioneer of a new set of models that may support landscape conservation and restoration.

Land use, REDD+ and the status of wildlife populations in Yaeda Valley, northern Tanzania

REDD+ projects primarily focus on reducing carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries. These projects are regularly evaluated against their core objective of conserving carbon stocks, but their contribution to biodiversity conservation has rarely been assessed. To assess the conservation value of the area and the relative performance of a REDD+ land use plan in Yaeda Valley, a semi-arid savannah ecosystem in northern Tanzania, we implemented an annual wildlife monitoring scheme. Based on direct sightings and indirect signs of wildlife, obtained from stratified walking transects conducted annually from 2015–2018, we estimated annual trends of mammal species richness and wildlife densities in three REDD+ and three non-REDD+ land-use strata. Our surveys document a near complete mammal community in the area. Species accumulation curves, and subsequent statistical comparisons, indicated highest mammal species richness in the woodland habitats (both REDD+ and non REDD+ strata) as compared to more human and livestock impacted areas, and suggested constant species richness from 2015–2018. To estimate stratum- and year-specific livestock and wildlife densities (cattle, donkey, goat and sheep combined, Thomson’s gazelle, Kirk’s dik-dik) and wildlife sign densities (aardvark, bushbuck, bushpig, Kirk’s dik dik, eland, elephant, Maasai giraffe, greater kudu, hyena, impala, lesser kudu, warthog, wildebeest, Plains zebra), we fitted species-specific detection functions in a distance sampling framework. Species-specific densities varied between 2015 and 2018 and showed substantial increases and occasional declines in other species-stratum combinations. However, population growth rates were not systematically associated with specific land-use strata. Although our results do not explicitly provide evidence that REDD+ land-use plans directly co-benefit wildlife conservation, they show that REDD+ areas have the potential to maintain intact wildlife assemblages. To ensure effective long-term conservation outcomes, we advocate for a more formal integration of wildlife conservation goals in the REDD+ scheme.

Beyond the model: expert knowledge improves predictions of species' fates under climate change

The need to proactively manage landscapes and species to aid their adaptation to climate change is widely acknowledged. Current approaches to prioritizing investment in species conservation generally rely on correlative models, which predict the likely fate of species under different climate change scenarios. Yet, while model statistics can be improved by refining modeling techniques, gaps remain in understanding the relationship between model performance and ecological reality. To investigate this, we compared standard correlative species distribution models to highly accurate, fine-scale, distribution models. We critically assessed the ecological realism of each species' model, using expert knowledge of the geography and habitat in the study area and the biology of the study species. Using interactive software and an iterative vetting with experts, we identified seven general principles that explain why the distribution modeling under- or overestimated habitat suitability, under both current and predicted future climates. Importantly, we found that, while temperature estimates can be dramatically improved through better climate downscaling, many models still inaccurately reflected moisture availability. Furthermore, the correlative models did not account for biotic factors, such as disease or competitor species, and were unable to account for the likely presence of micro refugia. Under-performing current models resulted in widely divergent future projections of species' distributions. Expert vetting identified regions that were likely to contain micro refugia, even where the fine-scale future projections of species distributions predicted population losses. Based on the results, we identify four priority conservation actions required for more effective climate change adaptation responses. This approach to improving the ecological realism of correlative models to understand climate change impacts on species can be applied broadly to improve the evidence base underpinning management responses.

Interactive effects of severe drought and grazing on the life history cycle of a bioindicator species

We used the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus), an iconic grouse species that exhibits a boom-bust life history strategy, on the Southern High Plains, USA, as a bioindicator of main and interactive effects of severe drought and grazing. This region experienced the worst drought on record in 2011. We surveyed lesser prairie-chicken leks (i.e., communal breeding grounds) across 12 years that represented 7 years before the 2011 drought (predrought) and 4 years during and following the 2011 drought (postdrought). Grazing was annually managed with the objective of achieving ≤50% utilization of aboveground vegetation biomass. We used lek (n = 49) count data and covariates of weather and managed grazing to: (a) estimate long-term lesser prairie-chicken abundance and compare abundance predrought and postdrought; (b) examine the influence of annual and seasonal drought (modified Palmer drought index), temperature, and precipitation on long-term lesser prairie-chicken survival and recruitment; and (c) assess and compare the influence of grazing on lesser prairie-chicken population predrought and postdrought. Lesser prairie-chicken abundance was nearly seven times greater predrought than postdrought, and population declines were attributed to decreased survival and recruitment. The number of days with temperature >90th percentile had the greatest effect, particularly on recruitment. The population exhibited a substantial bust during 2011 and 2012 without a boom to recover in four postdrought years. Adaptive grazing positively influenced the population predrought, but had no effects postdrought. Results suggest that the severe drought in 2011 may have been beyond the range of environmental conditions to which lesser prairie-chickens, and likely other species, have adapted. Land management practices, such as grazing, should remain adaptive to ensure potential negative influences to all species are avoided. Increasing habitat quantity and quality by reducing habitat loss and fragmentation likely will increase resiliency of the ecosystem and individual species.

Isolating the roles of movement and reproduction on effective connectivity alters conservation priorities for an endangered bird

Movement is important for ecological and evolutionary theory as well as connectivity conservation, which is increasingly critical for species responding to environmental change. Key ecological and evolutionary outcomes of movement, such as population growth and gene flow, require effective dispersal: movement that is followed by successful reproduction. However, the relative roles of movement and postmovement reproduction for effective dispersal and connectivity remain unclear. Here we isolate the contributions of movement and immigrant reproduction to effective dispersal and connectivity across the entire breeding range of an endangered raptor, the snail kite (Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus). To do so, we unite mark-resight data on movement and reproduction across 9 years and 27 breeding patches with an integrated model that decomposes effective dispersal into its hierarchical levels of movement, postmovement breeding attempt, and postmovement reproductive success. We found that immigrant reproduction limits effective dispersal more than movement for this endangered species, demonstrating that even highly mobile species may have limited effective connectivity due to reduced immigrant reproduction. We found different environmental limitations for the reproductive component of effective dispersal compared with movement, indicating that different conservation strategies may be needed when promoting effective dispersal rather than movement alone. We also demonstrate that considering immigrant reproduction, rather than movement alone, alters which patches are the most essential for connectivity, thereby changing conservation priorities. These results challenge the assumption that understanding movement alone is sufficient to infer connectivity and highlight that connectivity conservation may require not only fostering movement but also successful reproduction of immigrants.