Inferring the past to predict the future: climate modelling predictions and phylogeography for the freshwater gastropodRadix balthica(Pulmonata, Basommatophora)

Predicting Climate Change Impact on the Habitat Suitability of the Schistosoma Intermediate Host Oncomelania hupensis in the Yangtze River Economic Belt of China

Oncomelania hupensis is the exclusive intermediary host of Schistosoma japonicum in China. The alteration of O. hupensis habitat and population distribution directly affects the safety of millions of individuals residing in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) and the ecological stability of Yangtze River Basin. Therefore, it is crucial to analyze the influence of climate change on the distribution of O. hupensis in order to achieve accurate control over its population. This study utilized the MaxEnt model to forecast possible snail habitats by utilizing snail distribution data obtained from historical literature. The following outcomes were achieved: The primary ecological factors influencing the distribution of O. hupensis are elevation, minimum temperature of the coldest month, and precipitation of wettest month. Furthermore, future climate scenarios indicate a decrease in the distribution area and a northward shift of the distribution center for O. hupensis; specifically, those in the upstream will move northeast, while those in the midstream and downstream will move northwest. These changes in suitable habitat area, the average migration distance of distribution centers across different climate scenarios, time periods, and sub-basins within the YREB, result in uncertainty. This study offers theoretical justification for the prevention and control of O. hupensis along the YREB.

The use of an integrated framework combining eco-evolutionary data and species distribution models to predict range shifts of species under changing climates

Species distribution models (SDMs) are powerful tools that can predict potential distributions of species under climate change. However, traditional SDMs that rely on current species occurrences may underestimate their climatic tolerances and potential distributions. To address this limitation, we developed an integrated framework that incorporates eco-evolutionary data into SDMs. In our approach, the fundamental niches of species are constructed by their realized niches in different periods, and those fundamental niches are used to predict potential distributions of species. Our framework includes multiple phylogenetic analyses, such as niche evolution rate estimation and ancestral area reconstruction. These analyses provide deeper insights into the responses of species to climate change. We applied our approach to the Chrysanthemum zawadskii species complex to evaluate its efficacy through comprehensive performance evaluations and validation tests. Our framework can be applied broadly to species with available phylogenetic data and occurrence records, making it a valuable tool for understanding species adaptation in a rapidly changing world.•Integrating the niches of species in different periods estimates more complete climatic envelopes for them.•Combining eco-evolutionary data with SDMs predicts more comprehensive potential distributions of species under climate change.•Our framework provides a general procedure for species with phylogenetic data and occurrence records.

Incorporating eco-evolutionary information into species distribution models provides comprehensive predictions of species range shifts under climate change

As climate changes increasingly influence species distributions, ecosystem functions, and biodiversity, the urgency to understand how species' ranges shift under those changes is great. Species distribution models (SDMs) are vital approaches that can predict species distributions under changing climates. However, SDMs based on the species' current occurrences may underestimate the species' climatic tolerances. Integrating species' realized niches at different periods, also known as multi-temporal calibration, can provide an estimation closer to its fundamental niche. Based on this, we further proposed an integrated framework that combines eco-evolutionary data and SDMs (phylogenetically-informed SDMs) to provide comprehensive predictions of species range shifts under climate change. To evaluate our approach's performance, we applied it to a group of related species, the Chrysanthemum zawadskii species complex (Anthemidae, Asteracee). First, we investigated the niche differentiation between species and intraspecific lineages of the complex and estimated their rates of niche evolution. Next, using both standard SDMs and our phylogenetically-informed SDMs, we generated predictions of suitability areas for all species and lineages and compared the results. Finally, we reconstructed the historical range dynamics for the species of this complex. Our results showed that the species and intraspecific lineages of the complex had varying degrees of niche differentiation and different rates of niche evolution. Lineage-level SDMs can provide more realistic predictions for species with intraspecific differentiation than species-level models can. The phylogenetically-informed SDMs provided more complete environmental envelopes and predicted broader potential distributions for all species than the standard SDMs did. Range dynamics varied among the species that have different rates of niche evolution. Our framework integrating eco-evolutionary data and SDMs contributes to a better understanding of the species' responses to climate change and can help to make more targeted conservation efforts for the target species under climate change, particularly for rare species.

More time for aliens? Performance shifts lead to increased activity time budgets propelling invasion success

In the Grinnellian niche concept, the realized niche and potential distribution is characterized as an interplay among the fundamental niche, biotic interactions and geographic accessibility. Climate is one of the main drivers for this concept and is essential to predict a taxon’s distribution. Mechanistic approaches can be useful tools, which use fitness-related aspects like locomotor performance and critical thermal limits to predict the potential distribution of an organism. These mechanistic approaches allow the inclusion key ecological processes like local adaptation and can account for thermal performance traits of different life-history stages. The African Clawed Frog, Xenopus laevis, is a highly invasive species occurring on five continents. The French population is of special interest due to an ongoing expansion for 40 years and a broad base of knowledge. We hypothesize that (1) the French population exhibits increased activity time in the invasive European range that could be devoted to fitness-relevant activity and (2) tadpoles may have less activity time available than adult frogs from the same range. We investigate how thermal performance traits translate into activity time budgets and how local adaptation and differences in the thermal responses of life-history stages may boost the European Xenopus invasion. We use a mechanistic approach based on generalized additive mixed models, where thermal performance curves were used to predict the hours of activity and to compare the potential activity time budgets for two life-history stages of native and invasive populations. Our results show that adult French frogs have more activity time available in Europe compared to South African frogs, which might be an advantage in searching for prey or escaping from predators. However, French tadpoles do not have more activity time in Europe compared to the native South African populations suggesting that tadpoles do not suffer the same strong selective pressure as adult frogs.

Distinct stages of the intestinal bacterial community of Ampullaceana balthica after salinization

Environmental disturbances influence bacterial community structure and functioning. To investigate the effect of environmental disturbance caused by changes in salinity on host-protected bacterial communities, we analyzed the microbiome within the gastrointestinal tract of Ampullaceana balthica in different salinities. A. balthica is a benthic gastropod found in fresh- and mesohaline waters. Whereas the total energy reserves of A. balthica were unaffected by an increase of salinity to 3, a high mortality rate was detected after a shift from freshwater to salinity 6 suggesting a major disruption of energy homeostasis. The shift to salinity 6 also caused a change in the gastrointestinal bacterial community composition. At salinity 3, the bacterial community composition of different host individuals was related either to the freshwater or salinity 6 gastrointestinal bacterial community, indicating an ambivalent nature of salinity 3. Since salinity 3 represents the range where aquatic gastropods are able to regulate their osmolarity, this may be an important tipping point during salinization. The change in the intestinal microbiome was uncoupled from the change in the water bacterial community and unrelated to the food source microbiome. Our study shows that environmental disturbance caused by salinity acts also on the host-protected microbiome. In light of the sea-level rise, our findings indicate that salinization of the near-shore freshwater bodies will cause changes in organisms' intestinal microbiomes if a critical salinity threshold (presumably ∼3) is exceeded.

Niche breadth and biodiversity change derived from marine Amphipoda species off Iceland

Understanding the ecological requirements and thresholds of individual species is crucial to better predict potential outcomes of climate change on species distribution. In particular, species optima and lower and upper limits along resource gradients require attention. Based on Huisman‐Olff‐Fresco (HOF) models, we determined species‐specific responses along gradients of nine environmental parameters including depth in order to estimate niche attributes of 30 deep‐sea benthic amphipods occurring around Iceland. We, furthermore, examined the relationships between niche breadth, occupancy, and geographic range assuming that species with a wider niche are spatially more widely dispersed and vice versa. Overall, our results reveal that species react very differently to environmental gradients, which is independent of the family affiliation of the respective species. We could infer a strong relationship between occupancy and geographic range and also relate this to differences in niche breadth; that is specialist species with a narrow niche had a more limited distribution and may thus be more threatened by changing environmental conditions than generalist species, which are more widespread. Given the preponderance of rare species in the deep sea, this implies that many species could be at risk. However, this must be carefully weighed against geographical data gaps in this area, given that many deep‐sea areas are severely undersampled and the true distribution of most species is unknown. After all, our results underline that an accurate taxonomic classification is of crucial importance, without which ecological niche properties cannot be determined and which is hence fundamental for the assessment and understanding of changes in biodiversity in the face of increasing human perturbations.

Drivers of diversification in freshwater gastropods vary over deep time

Unravelling the drivers of species diversification through geological time is of crucial importance for our understanding of long-term evolutionary processes. Numerous studies have proposed different sets of biotic and abiotic controls of speciation and extinction rates, but typically they were inferred for a single, long geological time frame. However, whether the impact of biotic and abiotic controls on diversification changes over time is poorly understood. Here, we use a large fossil dataset, a multivariate birth-death model and a comprehensive set of biotic and abiotic predictors, including a new index to quantify tectonic complexity, to estimate the drivers of diversification for European freshwater gastropods over the past 100 Myr. The effects of these factors on origination and extinction are estimated across the entire time frame as well as within sequential time windows of 20 Myr each. Our results find support for temporal heterogeneity in the factors associated with changes in diversification rates. While the factors impacting speciation and extinction rates vary considerably over time, diversity-dependence and topography are consistently important. Our study highlights that a high level of heterogeneity in diversification rates is best captured by incorporating time-varying effects of biotic and abiotic factors.

A comprehensive phylogeography of the widespread pond snail genus Radix revealed restricted colonization due to niche conservatism

To clarify the effect of niche conservatism on evolutionary history, we focused on freshwater snails, which have different ecological and phylogenetic properties from previously tested taxa. We conducted a phylogenetic analysis using 750 lymnaeid individuals from 357 sites of eleven Radix species. Then, we estimated the ancestral distribution using the geographic coordinates and colonization routes. In addition, a statistical test of the colonization distances in the latitudinal and longitudinal directions was performed. We also conducted ecological niche modeling for two widely distributed species using climatic data. Ancestral geographic reconstruction estimated the origin of the genus to be around the Indian subcontinental region and showed that latitudinal immigration distances were shorter than longitudinal immigration distances in the diversification process. Ecological niche models suggested that the current distribution was restricted by climate, with annual mean temperature and precipitation of the driest month as particularly strong factors. Niche conservatism to the climate can affect the diversification of freshwater snails.

Mate availability determines use of alternative reproductive phenotypes in hermaphrodites

In many species, individuals can employ alternative reproductive phenotypes, with profound consequences for individual fitness and population dynamics. This is particularly relevant for self-compatible hermaphrodites, which have exceptionally many reproductive options. Here we investigated the occurrence of reproductive phenotypes in the simultaneously hermaphroditic freshwater snail Radix balthica under experimentally simulated conditions of low versus moderate population density. We captured all mating behavior on camera and measured individual female lifetime reproductive success. We found every possible reproductive phenotype: (1) both male and female (i.e., truly hermaphroditic) reproduction, (2) purely female and (3) purely male reproduction, (4) male reproduction combined with self-fertilization and (5) female mating activity, (6) pure self-fertilization without mating and (7–8) two types of reproductive failure. Variation in alternative reproductive phenotypes was explained by mate availability (10.8%) and individual condition, approximated by a snail’s mean daily growth rate (17.5%). Increased mate availability resulted in a lower diversity of reproductive phenotypes, in particular increasing the frequency of true hermaphrodites. However, it lowered phenotype-specific fecundities and hence reduced the population growth rate. Snails in better condition were more likely to reproduce as true hermaphrodites or pure females, whereas low-condition snails tended to suffer reproductive failure. Overall, we show substantial variation in alternative reproductive phenotypes in a hermaphrodite, which is possibly in part maintained by fluctuations in population density and thus mate availability, and by variation in individual condition. We also provide evidence of an almost 2-fold increase in clutch size that can be ascribed specifically to mating as a female.

Persistent establishment of a tropical disease in Europe: the preadaptation of schistosomes to overwinter

Background

Global changes promote the spread of infectious diseases worldwide. In this context, tropical urogenital schistosomiasis is now permanently established in Corsica since its first emergence in 2013. The local persistence of the tropical pathogens (schistosomes) responsible for urogenital schistosomiasis at such latitudes might be explained by (i) the presence of its intermediate host, the snail Bulinus truncatus, (ii) the recurrent local reseeding of schistosomes by their vertebrate hosts (either human or animal) every summer, and/or (iii) the maintenance and survival of schistosomes within their snail hosts over winter.

Methods

In this study we conducted an ecological experiment to assess the ability of temperate and tropical schistosome strains to survive in classical winter temperatures in Corsican rivers when infecting temperate (local) snail strains. We also quantified the ability of the schistosomes to complete their life-cycle post-overwintering when returned to classical summer water temperatures.

Results

Our results show that Mediterranean molluscs are locally adapted to winter conditions compared to tropical molluscs. Moreover, temperate and tropical schistosome strains equally survived the cold and produced viable offspring when returned to optimal temperatures. These results indicate that schistosomes can overwinter under temperate climates when infecting locally adapted snails and might partly explain the establishment and maintenance of schistosomes in Corsica from year to year.

Conclusions

The observed broader thermal range of schistosomes compared to that of their snail hosts was unexpected and clearly indicates that the spread and establishment of schistosomiasis in temperate countries relies primarily on the presence of the locally adapted snail host lineages, currently known to be present in France, Italy, Portugal, Spain and Greece.

Climate change, extinction, and Sky Island biogeography in a montane lizard

Around the world, many species are confined to "Sky Islands," with different populations in isolated patches of montane habitat. How does this pattern arise? One scenario is that montane species were widespread in lowlands when climates were cooler, and were isolated by local extinction caused by warming conditions. This scenario implies that many montane species may be highly susceptible to anthropogenic warming. Here, we test this scenario in a montane lizard (Sceloporus jarrovii) from the Madrean Sky Islands of southeastern Arizona. We combined data from field surveys, climate, population genomics, and physiology. Overall, our results support the hypothesis that this species' current distribution is explained by local extinction caused by past climate change. However, our results for this species differ from simple expectations in several ways: (a) their absence at lower elevations is related to warm winter temperatures, not hot summer temperatures; (b) they appear to exclude a low-elevation congener from higher elevations, not the converse; (c) they are apparently absent from many climatically suitable but low mountain ranges, seemingly "pushed off the top" by climates even warmer than those today; (d) despite the potential for dispersal among ranges during recent glacial periods (~18,000 years ago), populations in different ranges diverged ~4.5-0.5 million years ago and remained largely distinct; and (e) body temperatures are inversely related to climatic temperatures among sites. These results may have implications for many other Sky Island systems. More broadly, we suggest that Sky Island species may be relevant for predicting responses to future warming.

Non-native freshwater fauna in Portugal: A review

We present the most updated list of non-native freshwater fauna established in Portugal, including the Azores and Madeira archipelagos. This list includes 67 species at national level but corresponds to 84 species records, of which 53 are in the mainland, 23 in the Azores and 8 in Madeira archipelagos. We also discuss the progression of the cumulative number of introductions since 1800 and identify the most probable vectors of introduction, main taxonomic groups and their regions of origin. Furthermore, we review the existing knowledge about ecological and economic impacts, invasion risk and potential distribution of invaders, under present and future climatic conditions, and the applied management actions, including the production of legislation. Along the 20th century the number of successful introductions increased at an approximate rate of two new species per decade until the beginning of 1970s. Since then, this rate increased to about 14 new species per decade. These introductions were mainly a result of fisheries, as contaminants or for ornamental purposes. Fish and mollusks are the taxonomic groups with more established species, representing more than half of the total. Most species (>70%) are native from other regions of Europe and North America. Studies about ecological or socioeconomic impacts are more common for fish, crustaceans and mollusks. Impacts for most amphibians, reptiles and mammals are not thoroughly studied. A few studies on the impacts and management actions of health-threatening mosquitoes are also available. The potential distribution in the Portuguese territory was modelled for 26 species. Only a minority of these models provides projections of distributions under scenarios of future climate change. A comparison of the Portuguese and EU legislation shows large discrepancies in the invasive species lists. Using the EU list and a ranking procedure for the national context, we identify freshwater species of high national concern for which actions are urgently needed.

Increase in multiple paternity across the reproductive lifespan in a sperm-storing, hermaphroditic freshwater snail

Polyandry is a common phenomenon and challenges the traditional view of stronger sexual selection in males than in females. In simultaneous hermaphrodites, the physical proximity of both sex functions was long thought to preclude the operation of sexual selection. Laboratory studies suggest that multiple mating and polyandry in hermaphrodites may actually be common, but data from natural populations are sparse. We therefore estimated the rate of multiple paternity and its seasonal variability in the annual, sperm-storing, simultaneously hermaphroditic freshwater snail Radix balthica for the entire duration of the reproductive lifespan. We also tested whether multiple paternity was associated with clutch size or embryonic development. To obtain these data, we measured and genotyped 60 field-collected egg clutches using nine highly polymorphic microsatellite markers. Overall, 50% of the clutches had multiple fathers, and both the frequency (20-93% of clutches) and magnitude of multiple paternity (mean 1.3-3.8 fathers per clutch) substantially increased over time, probably because of extensive sperm storage. Most multiply sired clutches (83%) had a dominant father, but neither clutch size nor the proportion of developed embryos per clutch was associated with levels of multiple paternity. Both the evident promiscuity and the frequent skew of paternity shares suggest that sexual selection may be an important evolutionary force in the study population.

Comparing direct and indirect selfing rate estimates: when are population-structure estimates reliable?

The rate of self-fertilization (that is, selfing) is a key evolutionary parameter in hermaphroditic species, yet obtaining accurate estimates of selfing rates in natural populations can be technically challenging. Most published estimates are derived from population-level heterozygote deficiency (that is, F_IS) or identity disequilibria (for example, the software RMES (robust multilocus estimate of selfing)). These indirect methods can be applied to population genetic survey data, whereas direct methods using progeny arrays require much larger data sets that are often difficult to collect in natural populations or even require captive breeding. Unfortunately, indirect methods rely on assumptions that can be problematic, such as negating biparental inbreeding, inbreeding disequilibrium and (for F_IS) the presence of null alleles. The performance of indirect estimates against progeny-array estimates is still largely unknown. Here we used both direct progeny-array and indirect population-level methods to estimate the selfing rate in a single natural population of the simultaneously hermaphroditic freshwater snail Radix balthica throughout its reproductive lifespan using 10 highly polymorphic microsatellites. We found that even though progeny arrays (n=1034 field-collected embryos from 60 families) did not reveal a single selfed embryo, F_IS-based selfing rates (n=316 adults) were significantly positive in all 6 sequential population samples. Including a locus with a high frequency of null alleles further biased F_IS-based estimates. Conversely, RMES-based estimates were very similar to progeny-array estimates and proved insensitive to null alleles. The assumptions made by RMES were thus either met or irrelevant in this particular population, making RMES a valid, cost-efficient alternative to progeny arrays.

Colonization in North American Arid Lands: The Journey of Agarito (Berberis trifoliolata) Revealed by Multilocus Molecular Data and Packrat Midden Fossil Remains

Here we conduct research to understand the evolutionary history of a shrubby species known as Agarito (Berberis trifoliolata), an endemic species to the Chihuahuan Desert. We identify genetic signatures based on plastid DNA and AFLP markers and perform niche modelling and spatial connectivity analyses as well as niche modelling based on records in packrats to elucidate whether orogenic events such as mountain range uplift in the Miocene or the contraction/expansion dynamics of vegetation in response to climate oscillations in the Pliocene/Pleistocene had an effect on evolutionary processes in Agarito. Our results of current niche modelling and palaeomodelling showed that the area currently occupied by Berberis trifoliolata is substantially larger than it was during the Last Interglacial period and the Last Glacial Maximum. Agarito was probably confined to small areas in the Northeastern and gradually expanded its distribution just after the Last Glacial Maximum when the weather in the Chihuahuan Desert and adjacent regions became progressively warmer and drier. The most contracted range was predicted for the Interglacial period. Populations remained in stable areas during the Last Glacial Maximum and expanded at the beginning of the Holocene. Most genetic variation occured in populations from the Sierra Madre Oriental. Two groups of haplotypes were identified: the Mexican Plateau populations and certain Northeastern populations. Haplogroups were spatially connected during the Last Glacial Maximum and separated during interglacial periods. The most important prediction of packrat middens palaeomodelling lies in the Mexican Plateau, a finding congruent with current and past niche modelling predictions for agarito and genetic results. Our results corroborate that these climate changes in the Pliocene/Pleistocene affected the evolutionary history of agarito. The journey of agarito in the Chihuahuan Desert has been dynamic, expanding and contracting its distribution range and currently occupying the largest area in its history.

Integrating phylogeography and species distribution models: cryptic distributional responses to past climate change in an endemic rodent from the central Chile hotspot

AIM

Biodiversity losses under the species level may have been severely underestimated in future global climate change scenarios. Therefore, it is important to characterize the diversity units at this level, as well as to understand their ecological responses to climatic forcings. We have chosen an endemic rodent from a highly endangered ecogeographic area as a model to look for distributional responses below the species level: Phyllotis darwini.

LOCATION

The central Chile biodiversity hotspot: This area harbours a high number of endemic species, and it is known to have experienced vegetational displacements between two mountain systems during and after the Last Glacial Maximum.

METHODS

We have characterized cryptic lineages inside P. darwini in a classic phylogeographic approach; those intraspecific lineages were considered as relevant units to construct distribution models at Last Glacial Maximum and at present, as border climatic conditions. Differences in distribution between border conditions for each lineage were interpreted as distributional responses to post-glacial climate change.

RESULTS

The species is composed of two major phylogroups: one of them has a broad distribution mainly across the valley but also in mountain ranges, whereas the other displays a disjunct distribution across both mountain ranges and always above 1500 m. The lineage distribution model under LGM climatic conditions suggests that both lineages were co-distributed in the southern portion of P. darwini's current geographic range, mainly at the valley and at the coast.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

Present distribution of lineages in P. darwini is the consequence of a cryptic distributional response to climate change after LGM: postglacial northward colonization, with strict altitudinal segregation of both phylogroups.

An embryonic transcriptome of the pulmonate snail Radix balthica

The pond snail, Radix balthica (Linnaeus 1758), is an emerging model species within ecological developmental biology. While its development has been characterised in detail, genomic resources for embryonic stages are lacking. We applied Illumina MiSeq RNA-seq to RNA isolated from pools of embryos at two points during development. Embryos were cultured in either the presence or absence of predator kariomones to increase the diversity of the transcripts assembled. Sequencing produced 47.2M paired-end reads, assembled into 54,360 contigs of which 73% were successfully annotated. This transcriptome provides an invaluable resource to build a mechanistic understanding of developmental plasticity.

Isolation over 35 years in a heated biotest basin causes selection on MHC class IIß genes in the European perch (Perca fluviatilis L.)

Genes that play key roles in host immunity such as the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) in vertebrates are expected to be major targets of selection. It is well known that environmental conditions can have an effect on host–parasite interactions and may thus influence the selection on MHC. We analyzed MHC class IIß variability over 35 years in a population of perch (Perca fluviatilis) from the Baltic Sea that was split into two populations separated from each other. One population was subjected to heating from cooling water of a nuclear power plant and was isolated from the surrounding environment in an artificial lake, while the other population was not subjected to any change in water temperature (control). The isolated population experienced a change of the allelic composition and a decrease in allelic richness of MHC genes compared to the control population. The two most common MHC alleles showed cyclic patterns indicating ongoing parasite–host coevolution in both populations, but the alleles that showed a cyclic behavior differed between the two populations. No such patterns were observed at alleles from nine microsatellite loci, and no genetic differentiation was found between populations. We found no indications for a genetic bottleneck in the isolated population during the 35 years. Additionally, differences in parasitism of the current perch populations suggest that a change of the parasite communities has occurred over the isolation period, although the evidence in form of in-depth knowledge of the change of the parasite community over time is lacking. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis of a selective sweep imposed by a change in the parasite community.

Phylogeographical structure inferred from cpDNA sequence variation of Zygophyllum xanthoxylon across north-west China

Zygophyllum xanthoxylon, a desert species, displaying a broad east-west continuous distribution pattern in arid Northwestern China, can be considered as a model species to investigate the biogeographical history of this region. We sequenced two chloroplast DNA spacers (psbK-psbI and rpl32-trnL) in 226 individuals from 31 populations to explore the phylogeographical structure. Median-joining network was constructed and analysis of AMOVA, SMOVA, neutrality tests and distribution analysis were used to examine genetic structure and potential range expansion. Using species distribution modeling, the geographical distribution of Z. xanthoxylon was modeled during the present and at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Among 26 haplotypes, one was widely distributed, but most was restricted to either the eastern or western region. The populations with the highest levels of haplotype diversity were found in the Tianshan Mountains and its surroundings in the west, and the Helan Mountains and Alxa Plateau in the east. AMOVA and SAMOVA showed that over all populations, the species lacks phylogeographical structure, which is speculated to be the result of its specific biology. Neutrality tests and mismatch distribution analysis support past range expansions of the species. Comparing the current distribution to those cold and dry conditions in LGM, Z. xanthoxylon had a shrunken and more fragmented range during LGM. Based on the evidences from phylogeographical patterns, distribution of genetic variability, and paleodistribution modeling, Z. xanthoxylon is speculated most likely to have originated from the east and migrated westward via the Hexi Corridor.

Naturally rare versus newly rare: demographic inferences on two timescales inform conservation of Galápagos giant tortoises

Long-term population history can influence the genetic effects of recent bottlenecks. Therefore, for threatened or endangered species, an understanding of the past is relevant when formulating conservation strategies. Levels of variation at neutral markers have been useful for estimating local effective population sizes (N e ) and inferring whether population sizes increased or decreased over time. Furthermore, analyses of genotypic, allelic frequency, and phylogenetic information can potentially be used to separate historical from recent demographic changes. For 15 populations of Galápagos giant tortoises (Chelonoidis sp.), we used 12 microsatellite loci and DNA sequences from the mitochondrial control region and a nuclear intron, to reconstruct demographic history on shallow (past ∽100 generations, ∽2500 years) and deep (pre-Holocene, >10 thousand years ago) timescales. At the deep timescale, three populations showed strong signals of growth, but with different magnitudes and timing, indicating different underlying causes. Furthermore, estimated historical N e of populations across the archipelago showed no correlation with island age or size, underscoring the complexity of predicting demographic history a priori. At the shallow timescale, all populations carried some signature of a genetic bottleneck, and for 12 populations, point estimates of contemporary N e were very small (i.e., < 50). On the basis of the comparison of these genetic estimates with published census size data, N e generally represented ∽0.16 of the census size. However, the variance in this ratio across populations was considerable. Overall, our data suggest that idiosyncratic and geographically localized forces shaped the demographic history of tortoise populations. Furthermore, from a conservation perspective, the separation of demographic events occurring on shallow versus deep timescales permits the identification of naturally rare versus newly rare populations; this distinction should facilitate prioritization of management action.

Misperceived invasion: the Lusitanian slug (Arion lusitanicus auct. non-Mabille or Arion vulgaris Moquin-Tandon 1855) is native to Central Europe

The Lusitanian slug, presumed to be native to south-west Europe, was ranked among the 100 worst invading species in Central Europe. However, from the very beginning of its recognition in the presumed invasion area, there was little evidence that the species was actually anthropogenically introduced. We investigated the invasive status of the species by comparing specific predictions on the population genetic structure in the invasion area with the pattern actually found. In a DNA-taxonomy approach, the species could not be found in its presumed native range. Using statistical phylogeographic techniques on a mitochondrial (COI) and nuclear (ZF) marker and species distribution modelling, we could show that the species is with very high probability not an invasor, but native to Central Europe. The study underlines the value of statistical phylogeography in rigorously testing hypotheses on the dynamics of biological invasions.

Niche evolution and thermal adaptation in the temperate species Drosophila americana

The study of ecological niche evolution is fundamental for understanding how the environment influences species' geographical distributions and their adaptation to divergent environments. Here, we present a study of the ecological niche, demographic history and thermal performance (locomotor activity, developmental time and fertility/viability) of the temperate species Drosophila americana and its two chromosomal forms. Temperature is the environmental factor that contributes most to the species' and chromosomal forms' ecological niches, although precipitation is also important in the model of the southern populations. The past distribution model of the species predicts a drastic reduction in the suitable area for the distribution of the species during the last glacial maximum (LGM), suggesting a strong bottleneck. However, DNA analyses did not detect a bottleneck signature during the LGM. These contrasting results could indicate that D. americana niche preference evolves with environmental change, and thus, there is no evidence to support niche conservatism in this species. Thermal performance experiments show no difference in the locomotor activity across a temperature range of 15 to 38 °C between flies from the north and the south of its distribution. However, we found significant differences in developmental time and fertility/viability between the two chromosomal forms at the model's optimal temperatures for the two forms. However, results do not indicate that they perform better for the traits studied here in their respective optimal niche temperatures. This suggests that behaviour plays an important role in thermoregulation, supporting the capacity of this species to adapt to different climatic conditions across its latitudinal distribution.

Continental-scale assessment of risk to the Australian odonata from climate change

Climate change is expected to have substantial impacts on the composition of freshwater communities, and many species are threatened by the loss of climatically suitable habitat. In this study we identify Australian Odonata (dragonflies and damselflies) vulnerable to the effects of climate change on the basis of exposure, sensitivity and pressure to disperse in the future. We used an ensemble of species distribution models to predict the distribution of 270 (85%) species of Australian Odonata, continent-wide at the subcatchment scale, and for both current and future climates using two emissions scenarios each for 2055 and 2085. Exposure was scored according to the departure of temperature, precipitation and hydrology from current conditions. Sensitivity accounted for change in the area and suitability of projected climatic habitat, and pressure to disperse combined measurements of average habitat shifts and the loss experienced with lower dispersal rates. Streams and rivers important to future conservation efforts were identified based on the sensitivity-weighted sum of habitat suitability for the most vulnerable species. The overall extent of suitable habitat declined for 56-69% of the species modelled by 2085 depending on emissions scenario. The proportion of species at risk across all components (exposure, sensitivity, pressure to disperse) varied between 7 and 17% from 2055 to 2085 and a further 3-17% of species were also projected to be at high risk due to declines that did not require range shifts. If dispersal to Tasmania was limited, many south-eastern species are at significantly increased risk. Conservation efforts will need to focus on creating and preserving freshwater refugia as part of a broader conservation strategy that improves connectivity and promotes adaptive range shifts. The significant predicted shifts in suitable habitat could potentially exceed the dispersal capacity of Odonata and highlights the challenge faced by other freshwater species.

Present, past and future of the European rock fern Asplenium fontanum: combining distribution modelling and population genetics to study the effect of climate change on geographic range and genetic diversity

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Climate change is expected to alter the geographic range of many plant species dramatically. Predicting this response will be critical to managing the conservation of plant resources and the effects of invasive species. The aim of this study was to predict the response of temperate homosporous ferns to climate change.

METHODS

Genetic diversity and changes in distribution range were inferred for the diploid rock fern Asplenium fontanum along a South-North transect, extending from its putative last glacial maximum (LGM) refugia in southern France towards southern Germany and eastern-central France. This study reconciles observations from distribution models and phylogeographic analyses derived from plastid and nuclear diversity.

KEY RESULTS

Genetic diversity distribution and niche modelling propose that genetic diversity accumulates in the LGM climate refugium in southern France with the formation of a diversity gradient reflecting a slow, post-LGM range expansion towards the current distribution range. Evidence supports the fern's preference for outcrossing, contradicting the expectation that homosporous ferns would populate new sites by single-spore colonization. Prediction of climate and distribution range change suggests that a dramatic loss of range and genetic diversity in this fern is possible. The observed migration is best described by the phalanx expansion model.

CONCLUSIONS

The results suggest that homosporous ferns reproducing preferentially by outcrossing accumulate genetic diversity primarily in LGM climate refugia and may be threatened if these areas disappear due to global climate change.

The shaping of genetic variation in edge-of-range populations under past and future climate change

With rates of climate change exceeding the rate at which many species are able to shift their range or adapt, it is important to understand how future changes are likely to affect biodiversity at all levels of organisation. Understanding past responses and extent of niche conservatism in climatic tolerance can help predict future consequences. We use an integrated approach to determine the genetic consequences of past and future climate changes on a bat species, Plecotus austriacus. Glacial refugia predicted by palaeo-modelling match those identified from analyses of extant genetic diversity and model-based inference of demographic history. Former refugial populations currently contain disproportionately high genetic diversity, but niche conservatism, shifts in suitable areas and barriers to migration mean that these hotspots of genetic diversity are under threat from future climate change. Evidence of population decline despite recent northward migration highlights the need to conserve leading-edge populations for spearheading future range shifts.

Using genetic variation to infer associations with climate in the common frog, Rana temporaria

Recent and historical species' associations with climate can be inferred using molecular markers. This knowledge of population and species-level responses to climatic variables can then be used to predict the potential consequences of ongoing climate change. The aim of this study was to predict responses of Rana temporaria to environmental change in Scotland by inferring historical and contemporary patterns of gene flow in relation to current variation in local thermal conditions. We first inferred colonization patterns within Europe following the last glacial maximum by combining new and previously published mitochondrial DNA sequences. We found that sequences from our Scottish samples were identical to (92%), or clustered with, the common haplotype previously identified from Western Europe. This clade showed very low mitochondrial variation, which did not allow inference of historical colonization routes but did allow interpretation of patterns of current fine-scale population structure without consideration of confounding historical variation. Second, we assessed fine-scale microsatellite-based patterns of genetic variation in relation to current altitudinal temperature gradients. No population structure was found within altitudinal gradients (average FST=0.02), despite a mean annual temperature difference of 4.5 °C between low- and high-altitude sites. Levels of genetic diversity were considerable and did not vary between sites. The panmictic population structure observed, even along temperature gradients, is a potentially positive sign for R. temporaria persistence in Scotland in the face of a changing climate. This study demonstrates that within taxonomic groups, thought to be at high risk from environmental change, levels of vulnerability can vary, even within species.

Retreating or standing: responses of forest species and steppe species to climate change in arid Eastern Central Asia

Background

The temperature in arid Eastern Central Asia is projected to increase in the future, accompanied by increased variability of precipitation. To investigate the impacts of climate change on plant species in this area, we selected two widespread species as candidates, Clematis sibirica and C. songorica, from montane coniferous forest and arid steppe habitats respectively.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We employed a combined approach of molecular phylogeography and species distribution modelling (SDM) to predict the future responses of these two species to climate change, utilizing evidence of responses from the past. Genetic data for C. sibirica shows a significant phylogeographical signal (N_ST > F_ST, P<0.05) and demographic contraction during the glacial-interglacial cycles in the Pleistocene. This forest species would likely experience range reduction, though without genetic loss, in the face of future climate change. In contrast, SDMs predict that C. songorica, a steppe species, should maintain a consistently stable potential distribution under the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the future climatic conditions referring to its existing potential distribution. Molecular results indicate that the presence of significant phylogeographical signal in this steppe species is rejected and this species contains a high level of genetic differentiation among populations in cpDNA, likely benefiting from stable habitats over a lengthy time period.

Conclusions/Significance

Evidence from the molecular phylogeography of these two species, the forest species is more sensitive to past climate changes than the steppe species. SDMs predict that the forest species will face the challenge of potential range contraction in the future more than the steppe species. This provides a perspective on ecological management in arid Eastern Central Asia, indicating that increased attention should be paid to montane forest species, due to their high sensitivity to disturbance.

Genetic signatures of a demographic collapse in a large-bodied forest dwelling primate (Mandrillus leucophaeus)

It is difficult to predict how current climate change will affect wildlife species adapted to a tropical rainforest environment. Understanding how population dynamics fluctuated in such species throughout periods of past climatic change can provide insight into this issue. The drill (Mandrillus leucophaeus) is a large-bodied rainforest adapted mammal found in West Central Africa. In the middle of this endangered monkey's geographic range is Lake Barombi Mbo, which has a well-documented palynological record of environmental change that dates to the Late Pleistocene. We used a Bayesian coalescent-based framework to analyze 2,076 base pairs of mitochondrial DNA across wild drill populations to infer past changes in female effective population size since the Late Pleistocene. Our results suggest that the drill underwent a nearly 15-fold demographic collapse in female effective population size that was most prominent during the Mid Holocene (approximately 3-5 Ka). This time period coincides with a period of increased dryness and seasonality across Africa and a dramatic reduction in forest coverage at Lake Barombi Mbo. We believe that these changes in climate and forest coverage were the driving forces behind the drill population decline. Furthermore, the warm temperatures and increased aridity of the Mid Holocene are potentially analogous to current and future conditions faced by many tropical rainforest communities. In order to prevent future declines in population size in rainforest-adapted species such as the drill, large tracts of forest should be protected to both preserve habitat and prevent forest loss through aridification.