Foot-and-mouth disease virus transmission dynamics and persistence in a herd of vaccinated dairy cattle in India

A stochastic modeling study of quarantine strategies against foot-and-mouth disease risks through cattle trades across the Thailand-Myanmar border

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is an important endemic disease in livestock in Southeast Asia. Transboundary movement of animals may result in the transnational disease spread. A major cattle market is located at the Thailand-Myanmar border, where most cattle imported from Myanmar are traded. In this study, we built a stochastic susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model to investigate the effectiveness of a private animal quarantine service center in preventing FMDV from entering the major cattle market. We computed with different parameters and found that, with 50 % vaccine effectiveness, the risk of releasing infected cattle to the market per batch was generally low during the quarantine period of 21 and 28 days, with the risk ranging from 0.071 to 0.078 and 0.032 to 0.036, respectively. Despite the best scenario, the zero-risk state is difficult to attain. The sensitivity analysis highlights that the percentage of immune animals before entering the quarantine centers and the vaccine effectiveness are important factors. In conclusion, the 21-day quarantine period mitigates the risk of FMDV introduction into the cattle market. This control measure should be rigorously maintained to sustainably prevent FMDV outbreaks through transboundary animal movements, especially among countries in FMD-endemic regions.

Foot-and-Mouth Disease

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a viral infection of livestock that is an important determinant of global trade in animal products. The disease causes a highly contagious vesicular syndrome of cloven-hoofed animals. Successful control of FMD is dependent upon early detection and recognition of the clinical signs, followed by appropriate notification and response of responsible government entities. Awareness of the clinical signs of FMD amongst producers and veterinary practitioners is therefore the key in protecting US agriculture from the catastrophic impacts of an FMD outbreak. This review summarizes key clinical and epidemiologic features of FMD from a US perspective.

Epidemiological investigation of foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in a Vietnamese bear rescue centre

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks affecting Asiatic black bears (Ursus thibetanus) and a Malayan sun bear (Helarctos malayanus) were previously reported in 2011 in two housing facilities at a Vietnamese bear rescue centre. In this study, demographic data of all animals housed in the centre at the time of the outbreaks (n = 79) were collected. Blood samples drawn from 23 bears at different timepoints were tested for FMDV-specific antibodies targeting using a non-structural protein (NSP) ELISA and by virus neutralisation test (VNT). The relationship between seroconversion and clinical signs was explored and epidemic curves and transmission diagrams were generated for each outbreak, where FMD cases were defined as animals showing FMD clinical signs. Outbreak-specific attack rates were 18.75 and 77.77%, with corresponding basic reproduction numbers of 1.11 and 1.92, for the first and second outbreaks, respectively. Analyses of risk factors showed that after adjusting for sex there was strong evidence for a decrease in odds of showing clinical signs per year of age. All samples collected from bears before the outbreak tested negative to NSP and VNT. All cases tested positive to VNT following onset of clinical signs and remained positive during the rest of the follow up period, while only 6 out of 17 cases tested positive to NSP after developing clinical signs. Six animals without clinical signs were tested post outbreaks; five seroconverted using VNT and three animals were seropositive using NSP ELISA. This study provides initial epidemiological parameters of FMD in captive bears, showing that FMDV is easily spread between bears in close proximity and can cause clinical and subclinical disease, both of which appear to induce rapid and long-lasting immunity.

Estimation of foot-and-mouth disease virus sero-prevalence rates using novel computational approach for the susceptible bovine population in India during the period 2008-2021

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a severe contagious viral disease of cloven-hoofed animals. In India, a vaccination-based official FMD control programme was started, which got expanded progressively to cover entire country in 2019. The serological tests are used to determine non-structural protein based sero-prevalence rates for properly implementing and assessing the control programme. Since 2008, reporting of the FMD sero-surveillance was limited to the serum sample-based serological test results without going for population-level estimation due to lack of proper statistical methodology. Thus, we present a computational approach for estimating the sero-prevalence rates at the state and national levels. Based on the reported approach, a web-application ( https://nifmd-bbf.icar.gov.in/FMDSeroSurv ) and an R software package ( https://github.com/sam-dfmd/FMDSeroSurv ) have been developed. The presented computational techniques are applied to the FMD sero-surveillance data during 2008-2021 to get the status of virus circulation in India under a strict vaccination policy. Furthermore, through various structural equation models, we attempt to establish a link between India's estimated sero-prevalence rate and field FMD outbreaks. Our results indicate that the current sero-prevalence rates are significantly associated with previous field outbreaks up to 2 years. Besides, we observe downward trends in sero-prevalence and outbreaks over the years, specifically after 2013, which indicate the effectiveness of various measures implemented under the FMD control programme. The findings of the study may help researchers and policymakers to track virus infection and identification of potential disease-free zones through vaccination.

The prevalence of foot-and-mouth disease in Asia

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is listed among the highly contagious diseases in animals and is endemic throughout the Asian continent. The disease is caused by the Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) and affects a wide variety of domesticated animals as well as wild ungulates. Clinically, the disease is described as a vesicular lesion on the tongue, muzzle, lips, gum, dental pad, interdigital cleft, coronary band, and heel of the foot. Sometimes these lesions give rise to lameness. Mastitis is also caused due to teat lesions. A biochemical test reveals that during FMD infection, there are elevated levels of interleukin-1 (IL-1), tumor necrosis factor-alpha, interferon-gamma (IFN-γ), interleukin-6, serum amyloid A protein, lactoferrin, mannose-binding lectin, and monocytes chemo-attractant protein-1 in the serum of infected animals. There is no specific treatment for FMD although some antivirals are given as prophylaxis and antibiotics are given to prevent secondary bacterial infection. This review presents comprehensive data on the prevalence of FMD and serotypes of FMDV that are attributable to the cause of FMD from a regional point of view. It also explains the worldwide dynamics of the seven serotypes of FMD and tries to identify epidemiological clusters of FMD in various geographical areas. Furthermore, the pathology associated with the foot and mouth disease virus along with the pathophysiology is discussed. The continent-wide prevalence and diversity patterns of FMD suggest that there is a need for stringent policies and legislation implementation regarding research and development aimed at manufacturing strain-specific vaccination, infection prevention, and control of the disease.

Analysis of cattle movement networks in Paraguay: Implications for the spread and control of infectious diseases

Beef exports represent a substantial part of Paraguay's agricultural sector. Cattle movements involve a high risk due to the possible spread of bovine diseases that can have a significant impact on the country's economy. We analyzed cattle movements from 2014 to 2018 using the networks analysis methodology at the holding and district levels at different temporal scales. We built two types of networks to identify network characteristics that may contribute to the spread of two diseases with different epidemiological characteristics: i) a network including all cattle movements to consider the transmission of a disease of rapid spread like foot and mouth disease, and ii) a network including only cow movements to account for bovine brucellosis, a disease of slow spread that occurs mainly in adult females. Network indicators did not vary substantially among the cattle and cow only networks. The holdings/districts included in the largest strongly connected components were distributed throughout the country. Percolation analysis performed at the holding level showed that a large number of holdings should be removed to make the largest strongly connected component disappear. Higher values of the centrality indicators were found for markets than for farms, indicating that they may play an important role in the spread of an infectious disease. At the holding level (but not at the district level), the networks exhibited characteristics of small-world networks. This property may facilitate the spread of foot and mouth disease in case of re-emergence, or of bovine brucellosis in the country through cattle movements. They should be taken into account when implementing surveillance or control measures for these diseases.

Epidemiologic and economic considerations regarding persistently infected cattle during vaccinate-to-live strategies for control of foot-and-mouth disease in FMD-free regions

Development of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) carrier state following FMD virus (FMDV) infection is a well-established phenomenon in cattle. However, the proportion of cattle likely to become carriers and the duration of the carrier state at a herd or population-level are incompletely understood. The objective of this study was to examine the epidemiologic and economic impacts of vaccination-to-live strategy in a disease-free region or country. We developed and simulated scenarios of FMD spread and control in the US livestock population, which included depopulation for a limited period, followed by a vaccinate-to-live strategy with strong biosecurity and movement restrictions. Six scenarios of FMD spread and control were simulated in the InterSpread Plus (ISP) modeling tool. Data on the number of infected and depopulated cattle (by operation types) from ISP model runs were used to estimate the monthly number of infected but not depopulated (potential carrier) cattle after the infection. Using available literature data on the FMD carrier state, we estimated the monthly proportion of carrier cattle (from infected but not depopulated cattle) over time following infection. Among the simulated scenarios, the median (25th, 75th percentile) number of infected cattle ranged from 43,217 (42,819, 55,274) head to 148,907 (75,819, 205,350) head, and the epidemic duration ranged from 20 (11, 30) to 76 (38, 136) days. In general, larger outbreaks occurred when depopulation was carried out through longer periods, and the onset of the vaccination was late (p > 0.05). The estimated proportion of surviving cattle, which were infected and not depopulated and had the potential to become persistently infected ranged from 14 to 35% of total infected cattle. Production losses in beef and dairy sectors were higher when outbreaks started in multiple states simultaneously, but production losses were small compared to trade losses and consumer avoidance losses. These results can be used to inform the consideration of a vaccinate-to-live strategy for FMD outbreaks and the development of appropriate post-outbreak management strategies. Furthermore, this output will enable a more detailed examination of the epidemiologic and economic implications of allowing convalescent cattle to survive and remain in production chains after FMD outbreaks in FMD-free regions.

Impact of mass vaccination on the spatiotemporal dynamics of FMD outbreaks in India, 2008-2016

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is endemic in India, where circulation of serotypes O, A and Asia1 is frequent. Here, we provide an epidemiological assessment of the ongoing mass vaccination programs in regard to post-vaccination monitoring and outbreak occurrence. The objective of this study was assessing the contribution of mass vaccination campaigns in reducing the risk of FMD in India from 2008 to 2016 by evaluating sero-monitoring data and modelling the spatiotemporal dynamics of reported outbreaks. Through analyzing antibody titre data from >1 million animals sampled as part of pre- and post-vaccination monitoring, we show that the percent of animals with inferred immunological protection (based on ELISA) was highly variable across states but generally increased through time. In addition, the number of outbreaks in a state was negatively correlated with the percent of animals with inferred protection. We then analyzed the distribution of reported FMD outbreaks across states using a Bayesian space-time model. This approach provides better acuity to disentangle the effect of mass vaccination programs on outbreak occurrence, while accounting for other factors that contribute to spatiotemporal variability in outbreak counts, notably proximity to international borders and inherent spatiotemporal correlations in incidence. This model demonstrated a ∼50% reduction in the risk of outbreaks in states that were part of the vaccination program. In addition, after controlling for spatial autocorrelation in the data, states that had international borders experienced heightened risk of FMD outbreaks. These findings help inform risk-based control strategies for India as the country progresses towards reducing reported clinical disease.

Viral dynamics and immune responses to foot-and-mouth disease virus in African buffalo (Syncerus caffer)

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most important livestock diseases restricting international trade. While African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) act as the main wildlife reservoir, viral and immune response dynamics during FMD virus acute infection have not been described before in this species. We used experimental needle inoculation and contact infections with three Southern African Territories serotypes to assess clinical, virological and immunological dynamics for thirty days post infection. Clinical FMD in the needle inoculated buffalo was mild and characterised by pyrexia. Despite the absence of generalised vesicles, all contact animals were readily infected with their respective serotypes within the first two to nine days after being mixed with needle challenged buffalo. Irrespective of the route of infection or serotype, there were positive associations between the viral loads in blood and the induction of host innate pro-inflammatory cytokines and acute phase proteins. Viral loads in blood and tonsil swabs were tightly correlated during the acute phase of the infection, however, viraemia significantly declined after a peak at four days post-infection (dpi), which correlated with the presence of detectable neutralising antibodies. In contrast, infectious virus was isolated in the tonsil swabs until the last sampling point (30 dpi) in most animals. The pattern of virus detection in serum and tonsil swabs was similar for all three serotypes in the direct challenged and contact challenged animals. We have demonstrated for the first time that African buffalo are indeed systemically affected by FMD virus and clinical FMD in buffalo is characterized by a transient pyrexia. Despite the lack of FMD lesions, infection of African buffalo was characterised by high viral loads in blood and oropharynx, rapid and strong host innate and adaptive immune responses and high transmissibility.

A model exploration of carrier and movement transmission as potential explanatory causes for the persistence of foot-and-mouth disease in endemic regions

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a virulent and economically important disease of livestock, still endemic in many areas of Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Transmission from persistently infected livestock, also known as carriers, has been proposed as a mechanism to support the persistence of FMD in endemic regions. However, whether carrier livestock can infect susceptible animals is controversial; recovered virus is infectious and there are claims of field transmission, but it remains undemonstrated experimentally. Alternate hypotheses for persistence include the movement of livestock within and between regions, and fomite contamination of the environment. Using a stochastic compartmental ordinary differential equation (ODE) model, we investigate the minimum rates of carrier transmission necessary to contribute to the maintenance of FMD in a region, and compare this to the alternate mechanism of persistence through cattle shipments. We find that carrier transmission can theoretically support persistence even at transmission rates much lower than the highest realistic rates previously proposed, and that the parameters with the most effect on the feasibility of carrier-mediated persistence are the average duration of both the carrier phase and natural immunity. However, shipment-mediated persistence remains a viable alternate mechanism for persistence without carrier transmission.

Subdistrict-Level Reproductive Number for Foot and Mouth Disease in Cattle in Northern Thailand

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is an important contagious transboundary disease that causes a significant economic loss for several countries. The FMD virus (FMDV) can spread very rapidly by direct and indirect transmission among susceptible animals. The complexity and magnitude of FMDV transmission at the initial stages of the epidemic can be expressed by the basic reproductive number (R ₀), and furthermore, control strategies can be assessed by the estimation of the effective reproductive number. In this study, we aimed to describe FMD outbreaks among smallholder cattle farms by subdistricts in the northern Thailand and compute the effective reproductive number for outbreaks caused by FMDV serotype O and overall serotypes, including serotype O, serotype A, and unidentified serotype, at the subdistrict level (R _sd ) using an epidemic doubling time method. Field data of FMD outbreaks during 2015-2017 that affected 94 subdistricts in northern Thailand were assessed to estimate the R _sd . Results showed that 63.38% (90/142) of the FMD outbreak episodes in cattle were caused by FMDV serotype O. The average doubling time and the R _sd estimated of the outbreaks caused by FMDV serotype O and overall serotype were 2.80 and 4.67 months, and 1.06 and 1.04, respectively. Our results indicated that transmission of FMD in cattle at the subdistrict level in northern Thailand was not controlled (R _sd > 1), which indicates the endemicity of the disease in the region. Although control measures are in place, the results from this study highlighted the need for enhancing FMD monitoring and control strategies in northern Thailand.

Assessment of the Risk of Foot and Mouth Disease among Beef Cattle at Slaughter from East African Production Systems

Endemic foot and mouth disease (FMD) in East African cattle systems is one factor that limits access to export markets. The probability of FMD transmission associated with export from such systems have never been quantified and there is a need for data and analyses to guide strategies for livestock exports from regions where FMD remains endemic. The probability of infection among animals at slaughter is an important contributor to the risk of FMD transmission associated with the final beef product. In this study, we built a stochastic model to estimate the probability that beef cattle reach slaughter while infected with FMD virus for four production systems in two East African countries (Kenya and Uganda). Input values were derived from the primary literature and expert opinion. We found that the risk that FMD-infected animals reach slaughter under current conditions is high in both countries (median annual probability ranging from 0.05 among cattle from Kenyan feedlots to 0.62 from Ugandan semi-intensive systems). Cattle originating from feedlot and ranching systems in Kenya had the lowest overall probabilities of the eight systems evaluated. The final probabilities among cattle from all systems were sensitive to the likelihood of acquiring new infections en route to slaughter and especially the probability and extent of commingling with other cattle. These results give insight into factors that could be leveraged by potential interventions to lower the probability of FMD among beef cattle at slaughter. Such interventions should be evaluated considering the cost, logistics, and tradeoffs of each, ultimately guiding resource investment that is grounded in the values and capacity of each country.

Use of Slaughterhouses as Sentinel Points for Genomic Surveillance of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus in Southern Vietnam

The genetic diversity of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) poses a challenge to the successful control of the disease, and it is important to identify the emergence of different strains in endemic settings. The objective of this study was to evaluate the sampling of clinically healthy livestock at slaughterhouses as a strategy for genomic FMDV surveillance. Serum samples (n = 11,875) and oropharyngeal fluid (OPF) samples (n = 5045) were collected from clinically healthy cattle and buffalo on farms in eight provinces in southern and northern Vietnam (2015-2019) to characterize viral diversity. Outbreak sequences were collected between 2009 and 2019. In two slaughterhouses in southern Vietnam, 1200 serum and OPF samples were collected from clinically healthy cattle and buffalo (2017 to 2019) as a pilot study on the use of slaughterhouses as sentinel points in surveillance. FMDV VP1 sequences were analyzed using discriminant principal component analysis and time-scaled phylodynamic trees. Six of seven serotype-O and -A clusters circulating in southern Vietnam between 2017-2019 were detected at least once in slaughterhouses, sometimes pre-dating outbreak sequences associated with the same cluster by 4-6 months. Routine sampling at slaughterhouses may provide a timely and efficient strategy for genomic surveillance to identify circulating and emerging FMDV strains.

Extinction Dynamics of the Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Carrier State Under Natural Conditions

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most economically important livestock diseases worldwide. Following the clinical phase of FMD, a large proportion of ruminants remain persistently infected for extended periods. Although extinction of this carrier state occurs continuously at the animal and population levels, studies vary widely in their estimates of the duration of persistent infection. There is a need for robust statistical models to capture the dynamics of persistent infection for the sake of guiding FMD control and trade policies. The goal of the current study was to develop and assess statistical models to describe the extinction of FMD virus (FMDV) persistent infection using data from primary longitudinal studies of naturally infected cattle and Asian buffalo in Vietnam and India. Specifically, accelerated failure time (AFT) models and generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) were developed to predict the probability of persistent infection in seropositive animals and identified carriers at the individual animal level at sequential time points after outbreaks. The primary studies were analyzed by country and combined using an individual-participant data meta-analysis approach. The models estimated similar trends in the duration of persistent infection for the study/species groups included in the analyses, however the significance of the trends differed between the models. The overall probabilities of persistent infection were similar as predicted by the AFT and GLMM models: 6 months: 99% (AFT) /80% (GLMM), 12 months: 51% (AFT) /32% (GLMM), 18 months: 6% (AFT) /5% (GLMM), 24 months: 0.8% (AFT) /0.6% (GLMM). These models utilizing diverse and robust data sets predict higher probabilities of persistence than previously published, suggesting greater endurance of carriers subsequent to an outbreak. This study demonstrates the utility of statistical models to investigate the dynamics of persistent infection and the importance of large datasets, which can be achieved by combining data from several smaller studies in meta-analyses. Results of this study enhance current knowledge of the FMDV carrier state and may inform policy decisions regarding FMDV persistent infection.

Modeling the Transmission of Foot and Mouth Disease to Inform Transportation of Infected Carcasses to a Disposal Site During an Outbreak Event

In the event of a Food and Mouth Disease (FMD) outbreak in the United States, an infected livestock premises is likely to result in a high number of carcasses (swine and/or cattle) as a result of depopulation. If relocating infected carcasses to an off-site disposal site is allowed, the virus may have increased opportunity to spread to uninfected premises and result in exposure of susceptible livestock. A stochastic within-herd disease spread model was used to predict the time to detect the disease by observation of clinical signs within the herd, and the number of animals in different disease stages over time. Expert opinion was elicited to estimate depopulation parameters in various scenarios. Disease detection was assumed when 5% of the population showed clinical signs by direct observation. Time to detection (5 and 95th percentile values) was estimated for all swine farm sizes (500-10,000 head) ranged from 102 to 282 h, from 42 to 216 h for all dairy cattle premises sizes (100-2,000 head) and from 66 to 240 h for all beef cattle premises sizes (5,000-50,000 head). Total time from infection to beginning depopulation (including disease detection and confirmation) for the first FMD infected case was estimated between 8.5-14.3 days for swine, 6-12.8 days for dairy or beef cattle premises. Total time estimated for subsequent FMD cases was between 6.8-12.3 days for swine, 4.3-10.8 days for dairy and 4.5-10.5 days for beef cattle premises. On an average sized operation, a sizable proportion of animals in the herd (34-56% of swine, 48-60% of dairy cattle, and 47-60% of beef cattle for the first case and 49-60% of swine, 55-60% of dairy cattle, 56-59% of beef cattle for subsequent cases) would be viremic at the time of beginning depopulation. A very small fraction of body fluids from the carcasses (i.e., 1 mL) would contain virus that greatly exceeds the minimum infectious dose by oral (4-7x) or inhalation (7-13x) route for pigs and cattle.

Endemic foot and mouth disease: pastoral in-herd disease dynamics in sub-Saharan Africa

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) burden disproportionally affects Africa where it is considered endemic. Smallholder livestock keepers experience significant losses due to disease, but the dynamics and mechanisms underlying persistence at the herd-level and beyond remain poorly understood. We address this knowledge gap using stochastic, compartmental modelling to explore FMD virus (FMDV) persistence, outbreak dynamics and disease burden in individual cattle herds within an endemic setting. Our analysis suggests repeated introduction of virus from outside the herd is required for long-term viral persistence, irrespective of carrier presence. Risk of new disease exposures resulting in significant secondary outbreaks is reduced by the presence of immune individuals giving rise to a period of reduced risk, the predicted duration of which suggests that multiple strains of FMDV are responsible for observed yearly herd-level outbreaks. Our analysis suggests management of population turnover could potentially reduce disease burden and deliberate infection of cattle, practiced by local livestock keepers in parts of Africa, has little effect on the duration of the reduced risk period but increases disease burden. This work suggests that FMD control should be implemented beyond individual herds but, in the interim, herd management may be used to reduced FMD impact to livestock keepers.

Estimating foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) prevalence in central Myanmar: Comparison of village headman and farmer disease reports with serological findings

The impacts of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) on food security in developing countries are difficult to quantify due to the scarcity of accurate data on the prevalence and incidence of affected villages. This is partly due to resource constraints as well as the logistical challenges of conducting regular diagnostic testing in remote locations. In this study, we used descriptive analysis and latent class analysis (LCA) models to analyse data collected during a field survey of 160 villages in central Myanmar in the Mandalay and Sagaing Regions over the 2012-2016 time period. We evaluated the performance of verbal reports made by village householders and headmen against serological data to retrospectively determine the FMD-infection status of our study area and to identify factors contributing to under-reporting. Blood samples were collected from approximately 30 cattle per village in both the 6- to 18-month age range and over 18-month age range to distinguish between recent and historic exposure. Village householders were asked to identify pictures of FMD-affected cattle amongst pictures of cattle affected with other common endemic diseases to assess the accuracy of their verbal reporting. The serological results confirmed that FMD is endemic in central Myanmar with village-level seroprevalence estimated at 56% for animals 6-18 months of age and 80% when all age groups were considered together. Most village householders were familiar with the clinical signs of FMD-affected cattle (72%). Based on the results from the LCA models, the village headman had a sensitivity of 77% and specificity of 75% for identifying FMD outbreaks in their village, whereas individual householders had a higher sensitivity and lower specificity of 80% and 56%, respectively. The level of disagreement between the different sources was correlated with the total number of cattle in the village and may potentially be worse in villages where endemic FMD may have led to a high level of natural immunity in cattle and subsequent masking of clinical signs. However, other regional effects such as the intensity of FMD extension efforts cannot be ruled out. Overall, the results suggest that verbal reports of FMD outbreaks from village headmen may be a useful tool to integrate into active FMD surveillance programmes in developing countries.

African Swine Fever: Fast and Furious or Slow and Steady?

Since the introduction of African swine fever (ASF) into Georgia in 2007, the disease has been spreading in an unprecedented way. Many countries that are still free from the disease fear the emergence of ASF in their territory either in domestic pigs or in wild boar. In the past, ASF was often described as being a highly contagious disease with mortality often up to 100%. However, the belief that the disease might enter a naïve population and rapidly affect the entire susceptible population needs to be critically reviewed. The current ASF epidemic in wild boar, but also the course of ASF within outbreaks in domestic pig holdings, suggest a constant, but relatively slow spread. Moreover, the results of several experimental and field studies support the impression that the spread of ASF is not always fast. ASF spread and its speed depend on various factors concerning the host, the virus, and also the environment. Many of these factors and their effects are not fully understood. For this review, we collated published information regarding the spreading speed of ASF and the factors that are deemed to influence the speed of ASF spread and tried to clarify some issues and open questions in this respect.

Knowledge and behavior of cattle and sheep owners and herders regarding foot-and-mouth disease in Northern Algeria

Background and Aim:

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) has been occurring in Algeria since 2014, when an outbreak was announced in Setif, a district in the eastern region of the country. The problem was apparently resolved with the help of vaccination. However, in 2015, 2016, and 2018, FMD recurred. The veterinary authorities and media educated breeders on how to recognize the clinical signs and how to report the disease. This study aimed to evaluate the knowledge and recognition of FMD by farmers and breeders. Moreover, an assessment of the behavior of cattle and sheep owners and herders following FMD cases is examined.

Materials and Methods:

A cross-sectional survey was conducted from June to October 2018 to evaluate the perception of cattle and sheep owners and breeders regarding FMD in the Northern regions of Algeria, using questionnaires.

Results:

One hundred questionnaires were distributed; 71 were collected. Data showed that all the responders claimed to know about the disease, while more than half of the owners/herders claimed that they knew the clinical symptoms of FMD and mentioned fever, hypersalivation, lameness, and vesicles. Fewer than half (42%) (30/71) took some measures to prevent the disease, while more than half (58%) (41/71) did not take any measures in 2018. No one claimed to have reported the disease to authorities in 2018, while more than half had done so in 2014.

Conclusion:

It appears that experienced farmers recognized the clinical signs of FMD, while an academic background was not conclusively necessary for the identification of the clinical signs of the disease. Concerning the assessment of risk-associated behavior in the event of FMD occurrence, the responses of the breeders were not significantly different from those of risk-associated behaviors in the event of an epidemic. Farmers and breeders expressed similarity in terms of communicating the appearance of the disease in their livestock; the majority of them seemed to be aware of the importance of reporting the disease to local authorities, especially in 2014, when the disease first occurred. This behavior is encouraged by refund and technical assistance policies by the veterinary authorities, but in 2018, no disease was reported due to fear of slaughtering and economic loss.

Genetic and antigenic variation of foot-and-mouth disease virus during persistent infection in naturally infected cattle and Asian buffalo in India

The role of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) persistently infected ruminants in initiating new outbreaks remains controversial, and the perceived threat posed by such animals hinders international trade in FMD-endemic countries. In this study we report longitudinal analyses of genetic and antigenic variations of FMDV serotype O/ME-SA/Ind2001d sublineage during naturally occurring, persistent infection in cattle and buffalo at an organised dairy farm in India. The proportion of animals from which FMDV RNA was recovered was not significantly different between convalescent (post-clinical) and sub-clinically infected animals or between cattle and buffalo across the sampling period. However, infectious virus was isolated from a higher proportion of buffalo samples and for a longer duration compared to cattle. Analysis of the P1 sequences from recovered viruses indicated fixation of mutations at the rate of 1.816 x 10-2substitution/site/year (s/s/y) (95% CI 1.362-2.31 x 10-2 s/s/y). However, the majority of point mutations were transitional substitutions. Within individual animals, the mean dN/dS (ω) value for the P1 region varied from 0.076 to 0.357, suggesting the selection pressure acting on viral genomes differed substantially across individual animals. Statistical parsimony analysis indicated that all of the virus isolates from carrier animals originated from the outbreak virus. The antigenic relationship value as determined by 2D-VNT assay revealed fluctuation of antigenic variants within and between carrier animals during the carrier state which suggested that some carrier viruses had diverged substantially from the protection provided by the vaccine strain. This study contributes to understanding the extent of within-host and within-herd evolution that occurs during the carrier state of FMDV.

BOARD INVITED REVIEW: Prospects for improving management of animal disease introductions using disease-dynamic models

Management and policy decisions are continually made to mitigate disease introductions in animal populations despite often limited surveillance data or knowledge of disease transmission processes. Science-based management is broadly recognized as leading to more effective decisions yet application of models to actively guide disease surveillance and mitigate risks remains limited. Disease-dynamic models are an efficient method of providing information for management decisions because of their ability to integrate and evaluate multiple, complex processes simultaneously while accounting for uncertainty common in animal diseases. Here we review disease introduction pathways and transmission processes crucial for informing disease management and models at the interface of domestic animals and wildlife. We describe how disease transmission models can improve disease management and present a conceptual framework for integrating disease models into the decision process using adaptive management principles. We apply our framework to a case study of African swine fever virus in wild and domestic swine to demonstrate how disease-dynamic models can improve mitigation of introduction risk. We also identify opportunities to improve the application of disease models to support decision-making to manage disease at the interface of domestic and wild animals. First, scientists must focus on objective-driven models providing practical predictions that are useful to those managing disease. In order for practical model predictions to be incorporated into disease management a recognition that modeling is a means to improve management and outcomes is important. This will be most successful when done in a cross-disciplinary environment that includes scientists and decision-makers representing wildlife and domestic animal health. Lastly, including economic principles of value-of-information and cost-benefit analysis in disease-dynamic models can facilitate more efficient management decisions and improve communication of model forecasts. Integration of disease-dynamic models into management and decision-making processes is expected to improve surveillance systems, risk mitigations, outbreak preparedness, and outbreak response activities.

Foot-and-mouth disease virus O/ME-SA/Ind 2001 lineage outbreak in vaccinated Holstein Friesian cattle in Saudi Arabia in 2016

Background: Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is a highly contagious viral infection of large ruminants. Despite the massive application of vaccines against FMDV, several outbreaks are still being reported in Africa and Asia.

Aim: To perform molecular characterization of FMDV in an outbreak among a cattle herd Saudi Arabia in 2016. This herd had been vaccinated with a polyvalent FMDV vaccine.

Methods: To investigate this outbreak, we collected specimens from 77 animals showing typical clinical signs of FMDV. Specimens including sera, nasal swabs, and tissues (tongue, coronary bands, hooves, and hearts) were collected. We tested the collected cattle sera for the presence of FMDV antibodies with commercial ELISA kits. In addition, we tested the swabs for the presence of the most common FMDV strains (O, A, Asia-1 and SAT-2) with RT-PCR using serotype-specific oligonucleotides.

Results: Serology showed that 22% of the tested sera were positive. Molecular testing of the examined swabs confirmed that 24% of the tested animals were positive. Our sequencing analysis confirmed that the circulating strains of FMDV belonged to FMDV serotype O. The phylogenetic tree based on the FMDV-VP-1 gene revealed high nucleotide identity between the circulating strains and the Bangladesh strain (99%). These strains were distinct (shared 89% nucleotide identity) from the FMDV-O strains used for the preparation of the vaccine administered to the animals in this herd. Moreover, they had 7% nucleotide difference between the FMDV-O strains reported in Saudi Arabian in 2013.

Conclusion: More in-depth molecular characterization of these FMDV strains is warranted.

Evidence of subclinical foot-and-mouth disease virus infection in young calves born from clinically recovered cow under natural condition

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious and economically important, transboundary viral disease of cloven-hoofed animals. It is known that an asymptomatic, persistent FMD virus (FMDV) infection may occur subsequent to acute or subclinical FMDV infection in adult ruminants. However, virus persistence in young calves has not been studied. In the current investigation, FMDV infection parameters were examined for calves born to FMD-clinically recovered cows (CRC), asymptomatic cows from infected herds (ASC) and cows from with no history of FMD (NHF). The study was conducted in natural condition after FMD outbreaks in two dairy herds in India. No calves described herein had any clinical signs of FMD. Six out of 12 calves born to CRC had detectable FMDV RNA in oesophageal-pharyngeal fluid consistent with asymptomatic FMDV infection. Three of the 12 calves of CRC group had seroreactivity against FMDV non-structural proteins. One calf had detectable FMDV RNA at two consecutive samplings at 2 months apart. However, infectious FMDV was not isolated from any calf in the study. None of the calves in the ASC or NHF groups had any evidence of FMDV infection. Overall, these data are consistent with earlier report on calves having been infected in utero. Further investigation of FMDV persistence in calves under controlled conditions may lead to greater understanding of the viral pathogenesis.