Rising CO2 drives divergence in water use efficiency of evergreen and deciduous plants

Stomata Are Driving the Direction of CO2-Induced Water-Use Efficiency Gain in Selected Tropical Trees in Fiji

Understanding plant physiological response to a rising atmospheric CO2 concentration (ca) is key in predicting Earth system plant-climate feedbacks; however, the effects of long-term rising ca on plant gas-exchange characteristics in the tropics are largely unknown. Studying this long-term trend using herbarium records is challenging due to specimen trait variation. We assessed the impact of a ca rise of ~95 ppm (1927-2015) on the intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) and maximum stomatal conductance (gsmax) of five tropical tree species in Fiji using the isotopic composition and stomatal traits of herbarium leaves. Empirical results were compared with simulated values using models that uniquely incorporated the variation in the empirical gsmax responses and species-specific parameterisation. The magnitude of the empirical iWUE and gsmax response was species-specific, ranging from strong to negligible. Stomatal density was more influential than the pore size in determining the gsmax response to ca. While our simulation results indicated that photosynthesis is the main factor contributing to the iWUE gain, stomata were driving the iWUE trend across the tree species. Generally, a stronger increase in the iWUE was accompanied by a stronger decline in stomatal response. This study demonstrates that the incorporation of variation in the gsmax in simulations is necessary for assessing an individual species' iWUE response to changing ca.

Seasonal variations of leaf ecophysiological traits and strategies of co-occurring evergreen and deciduous trees in white oak forest in the central Himalaya

The present study investigates the seasonal variations in leaf ecophysiological traits and strategies employed by co-occurring evergreen and deciduous tree species within a white oak forest (Quercus leucotrichophora A. Camus) ecosystem in the central Himalaya. Seasonal variations in physiological, morphological, and chemical traits were observed from leaf initiation until senescence in co-occurring deciduous and evergreen tree species. We compared various parameters, including net photosynthetic capacity (Aarea and Amass), leaf stomatal conductance (gswarea and gswmass), transpiration rate (Earea and Emass), specific leaf area (SLA), mid-day water potential (Ψmd), leaf nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) concentration, leaf total chlorophyll concentration, photosynthetic nitrogen- and phosphorus-use efficiency (PNUE and PPUE), and water use efficiency (WUE) across four evergreen and four deciduous tree species. Our findings reveal that evergreen and deciduous trees exhibit divergent strategies in coping with seasonal changes, which are crucial for their survival and growth. Deciduous trees consistently exhibited significantly higher photosynthetic rates, transpiration rates, mass-based N and P concentrations (Nmass and Pmass), mass-based chlorophyll concentration (Chlmass), SLA, and leaf Ψmd, while maintaining lower leaf structural investments throughout the year compared to evergreen trees. These findings indicate that deciduous trees achieve greater assimilation rates per unit mass and higher nutrient-use efficiency. Physiological, morphological, and leaf N and P concentrations were higher in the summer (fully expanded leaf) than in the fall (senesced leaf). These insights provide valuable contributions to our understanding of tree species coexistence and their ecological roles in temperate forest ecosystems, with implications for forest management and conservation in the Himalayan region.

Characteristics and drivers of vegetation productivity sensitivity to increasing CO2 at Northern Middle and High Latitudes

Understanding and accurately predicting how the sensitivity of terrestrial vegetation productivity to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration (β) is crucial for assessing carbon sink dynamics. However, the temporal characteristics and driving mechanisms of β remain uncertain. Here, observational and CMIP6 modeling evidence suggest a decreasing trend in β at the Northern Middle and High Latitudes during the historical period of 1982-2015 (-0.082 ± 0.005% 100 ppm-1 year-1). This decreasing trend is projected to persist until the end of the 21st century (-0.082 ± 0.005% 100 ppm-1 year-1 under SSP370 and -0.166 ± 0.006% 100 ppm-1 year-1 under SSP585). The declining β indicates a weakening capacity of vegetation to mitigate warming climates, posing challenges for achieving the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement. The rise in vapor pressure deficit (VPD), that triggers stomata closure and weakens photosynthesis, is considered as the dominated factor contributing to the historical and future decline in β, accounting for 62.3%-75.2% of the effect. Nutrient availability and water availability contribute 15.7%-21.4% and 8.5%-16.3%, respectively. These findings underscore the significant role of VPD in shaping terrestrial carbon sink dynamics, an aspect that is currently insufficiently considered in many climate and ecological models.

Climate change triggered synchronous woody plants recruitment in the last two centuries in the treeline ecotone of the Northern Hemisphere

Climate change triggers several ecosystem responses, including woody plant encroachment. We analyse woody plant recruitment across the treeline ecotone (the forest-tundra ecotone) of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) over an extended period (1801-2010) and its relation with atmospheric CO2 and air temperature. We detected a synchronous trend of woody plant recruitment across the NH, indicating a major climatic and environmental change, triggered by a combination of CO2 fertilization and air temperature changes. The drivers of woody plant recruitment changed with time: CO2 fertilization was the main driver in the period 1801-1950, while air temperature was the main driver after 1950, despite the drastic acceleration of CO2 increase in the last decades. These data support the hypothesis that we are shifting from a fertilization-dominated to a warming-dominated period. The temporal patterns of woody plant recruitment are consistent with the occurrence of the 1980 regime shift, a major change occurred in the Earth's biophysical systems. Indeed, the recruitment drop promoted by the 1960s-1980s air cooling, was followed by an intensive recruitment increase triggered by the restart of air warming in the last decades. The largest sensitivity and fastest resilience of evergreen and Pinaceae to the restart of air warming allows to hypothesize that, among the woody plant functional and taxonomic groups, they could perform the largest expansion also in future decades.

Functional traits of fossil plants

A minuscule fraction of the Earth's paleobiological diversity is preserved in the geological record as fossils. What plant remnants have withstood taphonomic filtering, fragmentation, and alteration in their journey to become part of the fossil record provide unique information on how plants functioned in paleo-ecosystems through their traits. Plant traits are measurable morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical, or phenological characteristics that potentially affect their environment and fitness. Here, we review the rich literature of paleobotany, through the lens of contemporary trait-based ecology, to evaluate which well-established extant plant traits hold the greatest promise for application to fossils. In particular, we focus on fossil plant functional traits, those measurable properties of leaf, stem, reproductive, or whole plant fossils that offer insights into the functioning of the plant when alive. The limitations of a trait-based approach in paleobotany are considerable. However, in our critical assessment of over 30 extant traits we present an initial, semi-quantitative ranking of 26 paleo-functional traits based on taphonomic and methodological criteria on the potential of those traits to impact Earth system processes, and for that impact to be quantifiable. We demonstrate how valuable inferences on paleo-ecosystem processes (pollination biology, herbivory), past nutrient cycles, paleobiogeography, paleo-demography (life history), and Earth system history can be derived through the application of paleo-functional traits to fossil plants.

Global change progressively increases foliar nitrogen-phosphorus ratios in China's subtropical forests

Globally increased nitrogen (N) to phosphorus (P) ratios (N/P) affect the structure and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, but few studies have addressed the variation of foliar N/P over time in subtropical forests. Foliar N/P indicates N versus P limitation in terrestrial ecosystems. Quantifying long-term dynamics of foliar N/P and their potential drivers is crucial for predicting nutrient status and functioning in forest ecosystems under global change. We detected temporal trends of foliar N/P, quantitatively estimated their potential drivers and their interaction between plant types (evergreen vs. deciduous and trees vs. shrubs), using 1811 herbarium specimens of 12 widely distributed species collected during 1920-2010 across China's subtropical forests. We found significant decreases in foliar P concentrations (23.1%) and increases in foliar N/P (21.2%). Foliar N/P increased more in evergreen species (22.9%) than in deciduous species (16.9%). Changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations (P CO 2 $$ {\mathrm{P}}_{{\mathrm{CO}}_2} $$ ), atmospheric N deposition and mean annual temperature (MAT) dominantly contributed to the increased foliar N/P of evergreen species, whileP CO 2 $$ {\mathrm{P}}_{{\mathrm{CO}}_2} $$ , MAT, and vapor pressure deficit, to that of deciduous species. Under future Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, increasing MAT andP CO 2 $$ {\mathrm{P}}_{{\mathrm{CO}}_2} $$ would continuously increase more foliar N/P in deciduous species than in evergreen species, with more 12.9%, 17.7%, and 19.4% versus 6.1%, 7.9%, and 8.9% of magnitudes under the scenarios of SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. The results suggest that global change has intensified and will progressively aggravate N-P imbalance, further altering community composition and ecosystem functioning of subtropical forests.

The impact of ecological restoration on ecosystem services change modulated by drought and rising CO2

Ecological restoration projects (ERPs) are an indispensable component of natural climate solutions and have proven to be very important for reversing environmental degradation in vulnerable regions and enhancing ecosystem services. However, the level of enhancement would be inevitably influenced by global drought and rising CO2 , which remain less investigated. In this study, we took the Beijing-Tianjin sand source region (which has experienced long-term ERPs), China, as an example and combined the process-based Biome-BGCMuSo model to set multiple scenarios to address this issue. We found ERP-induced carbon sequestration (CS), water retention (WR), soil retention (SR), and sandstorm prevention (SP) increased by 22.21%, 2.87%, 2.35%, and 28.77%, respectively. Moreover, the ecosystem services promotion from afforestation was greater than that from grassland planting. Approximately 91.41%, 98.13%, and 64.51% of the increased CS, SR, and SP were contributed by afforestation. However, afforestation also caused the WR to decline. Although rising CO2 amplified ecosystem services contributed by ERPs, it was almost totally offset by drought. The contribution of ERPs to CS, WR, SR, and SP was reduced by 5.74%, 32.62%, 11.74%, and 14.86%, respectively, under combined drought and rising CO2 . Our results confirmed the importance of ERPs in strengthening ecosystem services provision. Furthermore, we provide a quantitative way to understand the influence rate of drought and rising CO2 on ERP-induced ecosystem service dynamics. In addition, the considerable negative climate change impact implied that restoration strategies should be optimized to improve ecosystem resilience to better combat negative climate change impacts.

Global estimates of gap-free and fine-scale CO2 concentrations during 2014-2020 from satellite and reanalysis data

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is a crucial greenhouse gas with substantial effects on climate change. Satellite-based remote sensing is a commonly used approach to detect CO2 with high precision but often suffers from extensive spatial gaps. Thus, the limited availability of data makes global carbon stocktaking challenging. In this paper, a global gap-free column-averaged dry-air mole fraction of CO2 (XCO2) dataset with a high spatial resolution of 0.1° from 2014 to 2020 is generated by the deep learning-based multisource data fusion, including satellite and reanalyzed XCO2 products, satellite vegetation index data, and meteorological data. Results indicate a high accuracy for 10-fold cross-validation (R2 = 0.959 and RMSE = 1.068 ppm) and ground-based validation (R2 = 0.964 and RMSE = 1.010 ppm). Our dataset has the advantages of high accuracy and fine spatial resolution compared with the XCO2 reanalysis data as well as that generated from other studies. Based on the dataset, our analysis reveals interesting findings regarding the spatiotemporal pattern of CO2 over the globe and the national-level growth rates of CO2. This gap-free and fine-scale dataset has the potential to provide support for understanding the global carbon cycle and making carbon reduction policy, and it can be freely accessed at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7721945.

Estimation of intrinsic water-use efficiency from δ13C signature of C3 leaves: Assumptions and uncertainty

Carbon isotope composition (δ¹³C) has been widely used to estimate the intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) of plants in ecosystems around the world, providing an ultimate record of the functional response of plants to climate change. This approach relies on established relationships between leaf gas exchange and isotopic discrimination, which are reflected in different formulations of ¹³C-based iWUE models. In the current literature, most studies have utilized the simple, linear equation of photosynthetic discrimination to estimate iWUE. However, recent studies demonstrated that using this linear model for quantitative studies of iWUE could be problematic. Despite these advances, there is a scarcity of review papers that have comprehensively reviewed the theoretical basis, assumptions, and uncertainty of ¹³C-based iWUE models. Here, we 1) present the theoretical basis of ¹³C-based iWUE models: the classical model (iWUE_sim), the comprehensive model (iWUE_com), and the model incorporating mesophyll conductance (iWUE_mes); 2) discuss the limitations of the widely used iWUE_sim model; 3) and make suggestions on the application of the iWUE_mes model. Finally, we suggest that a mechanistic understanding of mesophyll conductance associated effects and post-photosynthetic fractionation are the bottlenecks for improving the ¹³C-based estimation of iWUE.

Convergence in water use efficiency within plant functional types across contrasting climates

Water use efficiency (WUE) provides a direct measure of the inextricable link between plant carbon uptake and water loss, and it can be used to study how ecosystem function varies with climate. We analysed WUE data from the ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS), leveraging the high spatial resolution of ECOSTRESS to study the distribution of WUE values both within and among regions with different plant functional types. Our results indicate that despite wide local variability of WUE estimates, WUE tended to converge to common global optima (peaked distributions with variance <0.5 g C per kg H₂O, kurtosis >3.0) for five of nine plant functional types (grassland, permanent wetland, savannah, deciduous broadleaf and deciduous needleleaf forest), and this convergence occurred in functional types that spanned distinct geographic regions and climates.

Global decadal variability of plant carbon isotope discrimination and its link to gross primary production

Carbon isotope discrimination (Δ¹³ C) in C₃ woody plants is a key variable for the study of photosynthesis. Yet how Δ¹³ C varies at decadal scales, and across regions, and how it is related to gross primary production (GPP), are still incompletely understood. Here we address these questions by implementing a new Δ¹³ C modelling capability in the land-surface model JULES incorporating both photorespiratory and mesophyll-conductance fractionations. We test the ability of four leaf-internal CO₂ concentration models embedded in JULES to reproduce leaf and tree-ring (TR) carbon isotopic data. We show that all the tested models tend to overestimate average Δ¹³ C values, and to underestimate interannual variability in Δ¹³ C. This is likely because they ignore the effects of soil water stress on stomatal behavior. Variations in post-photosynthetic isotopic fractionations across species, sites and years, may also partly explain the discrepancies between predicted and TR-derived Δ¹³ C values. Nonetheless, the "least-cost" (Prentice) model shows the lowest biases with the isotopic measurements, and lead to improved predictions of canopy-level carbon and water fluxes. Overall, modelled Δ¹³ C trends vary strongly between regions during the recent (1979-2016) historical period but stay nearly constant when averaged over the globe. Photorespiratory and mesophyll effects modulate the simulated global Δ¹³ C trend by 0.0015 ± 0.005‰ and -0.0006 ± 0.001‰ ppm^-1 , respectively. These predictions contrast with previous findings based on atmospheric carbon isotope measurements. Predicted Δ¹³ C and GPP tend to be negatively correlated in wet-humid and cold regions, and in tropical African forests, but positively related elsewhere. The negative correlation between Δ¹³ C and GPP is partly due to the strong dominant influences of temperature on GPP and vapor pressure deficit on Δ¹³ C in those forests. Our results demonstrate that the combined analysis of Δ¹³ C and GPP can help understand the drivers of photosynthesis changes in different climatic regions.

Developing climate-resilient crops: improving plant tolerance to stress combination

Global warming and climate change are driving an alarming increase in the frequency and intensity of different abiotic stresses, such as droughts, heat waves, cold snaps, and flooding, negatively affecting crop yields and causing food shortages. Climate change is also altering the composition and behavior of different insect and pathogen populations adding to yield losses worldwide. Additional constraints to agriculture are caused by the increasing amounts of human-generated pollutants, as well as the negative impact of climate change on soil microbiomes. Although in the laboratory, we are trained to study the impact of individual stress conditions on plants, in the field many stresses, pollutants, and pests could simultaneously or sequentially affect plants, causing conditions of stress combination. Because climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of such stress combination events (e.g., heat waves combined with drought, flooding, or other abiotic stresses, pollutants, and/or pathogens), a concentrated effort is needed to study how stress combination is affecting crops. This need is particularly critical, as many studies have shown that the response of plants to stress combination is unique and cannot be predicted from simply studying each of the different stresses that are part of the stress combination. Strategies to enhance crop tolerance to a particular stress may therefore fail to enhance tolerance to this specific stress, when combined with other factors. Here we review recent studies of stress combinations in different plants and propose new approaches and avenues for the development of stress combination- and climate change-resilient crops.

Warming and elevated CO2 alter tamarack C fluxes, growth and mortality: evidence for heat stress-related C starvation in the absence of water stress

Climate warming is increasing the frequency of climate-induced tree mortality events. While drought combined with heat is considered the primary cause of this mortality, little is known about whether moderately high temperatures alone can induce mortality, or whether rising CO2 would prevent mortality at high growth temperatures. We grew tamarack (Larix laricina) under ambient (400 p.p.m.) and elevated (750 p.p.m.) CO2 concentrations combined with ambient, ambient +4 °C and ambient +8 °C growth temperatures to investigate whether high growth temperatures lead to carbon (C) limitations and mortality. Growth at +8 °C led to 40% mortality in the ambient CO2 (8TAC) treatment, but no mortality in the elevated CO2 treatment. Thermal acclimation of respiration led to similar leaf C balances across the warming treatments, despite a lack of photosynthetic acclimation. Photosynthesis was stimulated under elevated CO2, increasing seedling growth, but not leaf C concentrations. However, growth and foliar C concentrations were lowest in the +8 °C treatments, even with elevated CO2. Dying 8TAC seedlings had lower needle C concentrations and lower ratios of photosynthesis to respiration than healthy 8TAC seedlings, indicating that C limitations were likely the cause of seedling mortality under high growth temperatures.

Elevated CO2 causes different growth stimulation, water- and nitrogen-use efficiencies, and leaf ultrastructure responses in two conifer species under intra- and interspecific competition

The continuously increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) has substantial effects on plant growth, and on the composition and structure of forests. However, how plants respond to elevated [CO2] (e[CO2]) under intra- and interspecific competition has been largely overlooked. In this study, we employed Abies faxoniana Rehder & Wilson and Picea purpurea Mast. seedlings to explore the effects of e[CO2] (700 p.p.m.) and plant-plant competition on plant growth, physiological and morphological traits, and leaf ultrastructure. We found that e[CO2] stimulated plant growth, photosynthesis and nonstructural carbohydrates (NSC), affected morphological traits and leaf ultrastructure, and enhanced water- and nitrogen (N)- use efficiencies in A. faxoniana and P. purpurea. Under interspecific competition and e[CO2], P. purpurea showed a higher biomass accumulation, photosynthetic capacity and rate of ectomycorrhizal infection, and higher water- and N-use efficiencies compared with A. faxoniana. However, under intraspecific competition and e[CO2], the two conifers showed no differences in biomass accumulation, photosynthetic capacity, and water- and N-use efficiencies. In addition, under interspecific competition and e[CO2], A. faxoniana exhibited higher NSC levels in leaves as well as more frequent and greater starch granules, which may indicate carbohydrate limitation. Consequently, we concluded that under interspecific competition, P. purpurea possesses a positive growth and adjustment strategy (e.g. a higher photosynthetic capacity and rate of ectomycorrhizal infection, and higher water- and N-use efficiencies), while A. faxoniana likely suffers from carbohydrate limitation to cope with rising [CO2]. Our study highlights that plant-plant competition should be taken into consideration when assessing the impact of rising [CO2] on the plant growth and physiological performance.

High-frequency stable isotope signals in uneven-aged forests as proxy for physiological responses to climate in Central Europe

Picea abies (L.) Karst. and Fagus sylvatica (L.) are important tree species in Europe, and the foreseen increase in temperature and vapour pressure deficit (VPD) could increase the vulnerability of these species. However, their physiological performance under climate change at temperate and productive sites is not yet fully understood, especially in uneven-aged stands. Therefore, we investigated tree-ring width and stable isotope chronologies (δ13C/δ18O) of these two species at 10 sites along a climate gradient in Central Europe. In these uneven-aged stands, we compared the year-to-year variability of dominant and suppressed trees for the last 80 years in relation to the sites' spatial distribution and climate. δ18O and δ13C were generally consistent across sites and species, showing high sensitivity to summer VPD, whereas climate correlations with radial growth varied much more and depended on mean local climate. We found no significant differences between dominant and suppressed trees in the response of stable isotope ratios to climate variability, especially within the annual high-frequency signals. In addition, we observed a strikingly high coherence of the high-frequency δ18O variations across long distances with significant correlations above 1500 km, whereas the spatial agreement of δ13C variations was weaker (~700 km). We applied a dual-isotope approach that is based on known theoretical understanding of isotope fractionations to translate the observed changes into physiological components, mainly photosynthetic assimilation rate and stomatal conductance. When separating the chronologies in two time windows and investigating the shifts in isotopes ratios, a significant enrichment of either or both isotope ratios over the last decades can be observed. These results, translated by the dual-isotope approach, indicate a general climate-driven decrease in stomatal conductance. This improved understanding of the physiological mechanisms controlling the short-term variation of the isotopic signature will help to define the performance of these tree species under future climate.

CO2, nitrogen deposition and a discontinuous climate response drive water use efficiency in global forests

Reduced stomatal conductance is a common plant response to rising atmospheric CO₂ and increases water use efficiency (W). At the leaf-scale, W depends on water and nitrogen availability in addition to atmospheric CO₂. In hydroclimate models W is a key driver of rainfall, droughts, and streamflow extremes. We used global climate data to derive Aridity Indices (AI) for forests over the period 1965-2015 and synthesised those with data for nitrogen deposition and W derived from stable isotopes in tree rings. AI and atmospheric CO₂ account for most of the variance in W of trees across the globe, while cumulative nitrogen deposition has a significant effect only in regions without strong legacies of atmospheric pollution. The relation of aridity and W displays a clear discontinuity. W and AI are strongly related below a threshold value of AI ≈ 1 but are not related where AI > 1. Tree ring data emphasise that effective demarcation of water-limited from non-water-limited behaviour of stomata is critical to improving hydrological models that operate at regional to global scales.

Accounting for mesophyll conductance substantially improves 13 C-based estimates of intrinsic water-use efficiency

Carbon isotope discrimination (Δ) has been used widely to infer intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) of C₃ plants, a key parameter linking carbon and water fluxes. Despite the essential role of mesophyll conductance (g_m ) in photosynthesis and Δ, its effect on Δ-based predictions of iWUE has generally been neglected. Here, we derive a mathematical expression of iWUE as a function of Δ that includes g_m (iWUE_mes ) and exploits the g_m -stomatal conductance (g_sc ) relationship across drought-stress levels and plant functional groups (deciduous or semideciduous woody, evergreen woody and herbaceous species) in a global database. iWUE_mes was further validated with an independent dataset of online-Δ and CO₂ and H₂ O gas exchange measurements with seven species. Drought stress reduced g_sc and g_m by nearly one-half across all plant functional groups, but had no significant effect on the g_sc  : g_m ratio, with a well supported value of 0.79 ± 0.07 (95% CI, n = 198). g_m was negatively correlated to iWUE. Incorporating the g_sc  : g_m ratio greatly improved estimates of iWUE, compared with calculations that assumed infinite g_m . The inclusion of the g_sc  : g_m ratio, fixed at 0.79 when g_m was unknown, proved desirable to eliminate significant errors in estimating iWUE from Δ across various C₃ vegetation types.

Climate change promotes transitions to tall evergreen vegetation in tropical Asia

Vegetation in tropical Asia is highly diverse due to large environmental gradients and heterogeneity of landscapes. This biodiversity is threatened by intense land use and climate change. However, despite the rich biodiversity and the dense human population, tropical Asia is often underrepresented in global biodiversity assessments. Understanding how climate change influences the remaining areas of natural vegetation is therefore highly important for conservation planning. Here, we used the adaptive Dynamic Global Vegetation Model version 2 (aDGVM2) to simulate impacts of climate change and elevated CO₂ on vegetation formations in tropical Asia for an ensemble of climate change scenarios. We used climate forcing from five different climate models for representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We found that vegetation in tropical Asia will remain a carbon sink until 2099, and that vegetation biomass increases of up to 28% by 2099 are associated with transitions from small to tall woody vegetation and from deciduous to evergreen vegetation. Patterns of phenology were less responsive to climate change and elevated CO₂ than biomes and biomass, indicating that the selection of variables and methods used to detect vegetation changes is crucial. Model simulations revealed substantial variation within the ensemble, both in biomass increases and in distributions of different biome types. Our results have important implications for management policy, because they suggest that large ensembles of climate models and scenarios are required to assess a wide range of potential future trajectories of vegetation change and to develop robust management plans. Furthermore, our results highlight open ecosystems with low tree cover as most threatened by climate change, indicating potential conflicts of interest between biodiversity conservation in open ecosystems and active afforestation to enhance carbon sequestration.