The past and future human impact on mammalian diversity

Exposing illegal hunting and wildlife depletion in the world's largest tropical country through social media data

Globally, illegal sport hunting can threaten prey populations when unregulated. Due to its covert nature, illegal sport hunting poses challenges for data collection, hindering efforts to understand the full extent of its impacts. We gathered social media data to analyze patterns of illegal sport hunting and wildlife depletion across Brazil. We collected data for 2 years (2018-2020) across 5 Facebook groups containing posts depicting pictures of illegal sport hunting events of native fauna. We described and mapped these hunting events by detailing the number of hunters involved, the number of species, the mean body mass of individuals, and the number and biomass of individuals hunted per unit area, stratified by Brazilian biome. We also examined the effects of defaunation on hunting yield and composition via regression models, rank-abundance curves, and spatial interpolation. We detected 2046 illegal sport hunting posts portraying the hunting of 4658 animals (∼29 t of undressed meat) across all 27 states and 6 natural biomes of Brazil. Of 157 native species targeted by hunters, 19 are currently threatened with extinction. We estimated that 1414 hunters extracted 3251 kg/million km2. Some areas exhibited more pronounced wildlife depletion, in particular the Atlantic Forest and Caatinga biomes. In these areas, there was a shift from large mammals and reptiles to small birds as the main targeted taxa, and biomass extracted per hunting event and mean body mass across all taxonomic groups were lower than in other areas. Our results highlight that illegal sport hunting adds to the pressures of subsistence hunting and the wild meat trade on Brazil's wildlife populations. Enhanced surveillance efforts are needed to reduce illegal sport hunting levels and to develop well-managed sustainable sport hunting programs. These can support wildlife conservation and offer incentives for local communities to oversee designated sport hunting areas.

A reference genome for the Harpy Eagle reveals steady demographic decline and chromosomal rearrangements in the origin of Accipitriformes

The Harpy Eagle (Harpia harpyja) is an iconic species that inhabits forested landscapes in Neotropical regions, with decreasing population trends mainly due to habitat loss, and currently classified as vulnerable. Here, we report on a chromosome-scale genome assembly for a female individual combining long reads, optical mapping, and chromatin conformation capture reads. The final assembly spans 1.35 Gb, with N50scaffold equal to 58.1 Mb and BUSCO completeness of 99.7%. We built the first extensive transposable element (TE) library for the Accipitridae to date and identified 7,228 intact TEs. We found a burst of an unknown TE ~ 13-22 million years ago (MYA), coincident with the split of the Harpy Eagle from other Harpiinae eagles. We also report a burst of solo-LTRs and CR1 retrotransposons ~ 31-33 MYA, overlapping with the split of the ancestor to all Harpiinae from other Accipitridae subfamilies. Comparative genomics with other Accipitridae, the closely related Cathartidae and Galloanserae revealed major chromosome-level rearrangements at the basal Accipitriformes genome, in contrast to a conserved ancient genome architecture for the latter two groups. A historical demography reconstruction showed a rapid decline in effective population size over the last 20,000 years. This reference genome serves as a crucial resource for future conservation efforts towards the Harpy Eagle.

Reliable biogeography requires fossils: insights from a new species-level phylogeny of extinct and living carnivores

A central objective of historical biogeography is to understand where clades originated and how they moved across space and over time. However, given the dynamic history of ecosystem changes in response to climate change and geological events, the manifold long-distance dispersals over evolutionary timescales, and regional and global extinctions, it remains uncertain how reliable inferences based solely on extant taxa can be achieved. Using a novel species-level phylogeny of all known extant and extinct species of the mammalian order Carnivora and related extinct groups, we show that far more precise and accurate ancestral areas can be estimated by fully integrating extinct species into the analyses, rather than solely relying on extant species or identifying ancestral areas only based on the geography of the oldest fossils. Through a series of simulations, we further show that this conclusion is robust under realistic scenarios in which the unknown extinct taxa represent a biased subset of all extinct species. Our results highlight the importance of integrating fossil taxa into a phylogenetic framework to further improve our understanding of historical biogeography and reveal the dynamic dispersal and diversification history of carnivores.

Trait-mediated speciation and human-driven extinctions in proboscideans revealed by unsupervised Bayesian neural networks

Species life-history traits, paleoenvironment, and biotic interactions likely influence speciation and extinction rates, affecting species richness over time. Birth-death models inferring the impact of these factors typically assume monotonic relationships between single predictors and rates, limiting our ability to assess more complex effects and their relative importance and interaction. We introduce a Bayesian birth-death model using unsupervised neural networks to explore multifactorial and nonlinear effects on speciation and extinction rates using fossil data. It infers lineage- and time-specific rates and disentangles predictor effects and importance through explainable artificial intelligence techniques. Analysis of the proboscidean fossil record revealed speciation rates shaped by dietary flexibility and biogeographic events. The emergence of modern humans escalated extinction rates, causing recent diversity decline, while regional climate had a lesser impact. Our model paves the way for an improved understanding of the intricate dynamics shaping clade diversification.

Modelling reveals the effect of climate and land use change on Madagascar's chameleons fauna

The global biodiversity crisis is generated by the combined effects of human-induced climate change and land conversion. Madagascar is one of the World's most renewed hotspots of biodiversity. Yet, its rich variety of plant and animal species is threatened by deforestation and climate change. Predicting the future of Madagascar's chameleons, in particular, is complicated by their ecological rarity, making it hard to tell which factor is the most menacing to their survival. By applying an extension of the ENphylo species distribution model algorithm to work with extremely rare species, we find that Madagascar chameleons will face intense species loss in the north-western sector of the island. Land conversion by humans will drive most of the loss, and will intersect in a complex, nonlinear manner with climate change. We find that some 30% of the Madagascar's chameleons may lose in the future nearly all their habitats, critically jeopardizing their chance for survival.

Assessing the role of habitat, climate, and anthropization gradients on terrestrial mammal diversity in the western Mediterranean basin

Mammal species globally exhibit distribution patterns conditioned by environmental conditions and human impact. The Mediterranean basin provides an ideal system to study these effects due to its diverse climate, and habitat conditions. In this work, we aim to assess the impact of landscape heterogeneity and anthropization degree on terrestrial mammal diversity in this region. Accordingly, we deployed over 300 camera traps across 28 sites for 3 months. Detected mammal species (weighing more than 1kg) were classified as domestic carnivores, domestic ungulates, wild carnivores, wild ungulates, lagomorphs, and large rodents. Alpha and beta diversity were calculated for each group and all wild mammals. Simple linear regressions and multimodal analysis were conducted between mammal diversities and climate, environmental conditions, landscape heterogeneity, and anthropization degree variables. Redundancy analyses were performed to identify variables and species determining the mammalian community composition. Indexes measuring landscape heterogeneity, anthropization degree, and its 30-year change did not correlate with mammal diversity. However, the difference in elevation within sites and domestic carnivore abundance showed a significant positive correlation with some of the diversity indexes. Nonetheless, rainfall and mean elevation factors generally showed the highest correlation with mammal diversity. Instead, a few influential species, including generalists and open-habitat specialists, highlighted the importance of conserving open areas, as well as the importance of the Pyrenees region as a key habitat for certain species. Therefore, climatic variables emerged as the key determinants of mammal diversity, highlighting climate change as a potential threat to mammal diversity in this area.

Density of a cryptic Australian small mammal: The threatened Julia Creek dunnart (Sminthopsis douglasi)

Globally, hundreds of mammal species face the threat of extinction in the coming decades, and in many cases, their ecology remains poorly understood. Fundamental ecological knowledge is crucial for effective conservation management of these species, but it is particularly lacking for small, cryptic mammals. The Julia Creek dunnart (Sminthopsis douglasi), a threatened, cryptic carnivorous marsupial that occurs in scattered populations in the central west of Queensland, Australia, was once so poorly studied that it was believed extinct. Sporadic research since its rediscovery in the early 1990s has revealed that S. douglasi is distributed across land at risk from many threats. Fundamental knowledge of S. douglasi population density is urgently required to inform conservation management at key sites, yet the species has historically proven hard to detect. Indeed, the status of the largest known population of S. douglasi, in Bladensburg National Park, is unknown. Here, we conducted a population study on S. douglasi at two sites within Bladensburg National Park via live mark-recapture surveys during 2022 and 2023. From likelihood-based spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) modelling we provide the first estimates of density and population size for S. douglasi. Live trapping resulted in captures of 49 individual S. douglasi (with 83 captures total, including recaptures). We estimated S. douglasi to occur at a density of 0.38 individuals ha-1 (0.25-0.58) at one site and 0.16 individuals ha-1 (0.09-0.27) at another site, with an estimated mean population size in suitable habitat at Bladensburg National Park of 1211 individuals (776-1646). Our S. douglasi density estimates were similar to that reported for other threatened small mammals in Australia. We also found evidence of extreme S. douglasi population fluctuations over time at Bladensburg National Park, which is of concern for its future conservation. Our study has provided the first estimate of density for S. douglasi, a threatened dasyurid species from the Mitchell Grass Downs of central western Queensland, Australia. Our research provides crucial population data to assist the management of this poorly studied species. We demonstrate a method that can be applied to species with low detection probability to ultimately help address the mammal extinction crisis faced by Australia and the rest of the world.

Diversity and distribution of bamboo-feeding true bugs in China

The Bambusoideae subfamily, originating in the late Cretaceous, has evolved to include over 1500 species globally. Notably, China hosts the richest diversity of Bambusoideae, with 728 species documented. After a long period of coevolution, plenty of animals could feed on these plants rich in cellulose and lignin. As an important group of pests and participants in the ecosystem, bamboo-feeding true bugs (BFTBs, or bamboo-feeding Heteropteran insects) have attracted the attention of researchers. However, the diversity and distribution of BFTBs still lack systematic and generalized research. In this study, we reviewed the BFTBs in China and simulated the diversity pattern and the driving forces of this pattern. A list of 36 genera with 69 species of BFTBs in China was obtained through paper review and field surveys. And their bamboo-feeding habit had multiple independent origins. The spatial diversity pattern showed that the biodiversity hotspots of BFTBs are located in and around the tropics of southern China. Environmental driving force analysis showed that the minimum temperature of coldest month and annual precipitation were the dominant environmental factors shaping the spatial diversity of BFTBs. Our work quantified the diversity and distribution of BFTBs in China, providing fundamental data support for pest control and evolutionary research.

Two Major Extinction Events in the Evolutionary History of Turtles: One Caused by an Asteroid, the Other by Hominins

AbstractWe live in a time of accelerated biological extinctions that has the potential to mirror past mass extinction events. However, the rarity of mass extinctions and the restructuring of diversity they cause complicate direct comparisons between the current extinction crisis and earlier events. Among animals, turtles (Testudinata) are one of few groups that have both a rich fossil record and sufficiently stable ecological and functional roles to enable meaningful comparisons between the end-Cretaceous mass extinction (∼66 Ma) and the ongoing wave of extinctions. Here we analyze the fossil record of the entire turtle clade and identify two peaks in extinction rates over their evolutionary history. The first coincides with the Cretaceous-Paleogene transition, reflecting patterns previously reported for other taxa. The second major extinction event started in the Pliocene and continues until now. This peak is detectable only for terrestrial turtles and started much earlier in Africa and Eurasia than elsewhere. On the basis of the timing, geography, and functional group of this extinction event, we postulate a link to co-occurring hominins rather than climate change as the cause. These results lend further support to the view that negative biodiversity impacts were already incurred by our ancestors and related lineages and demonstrate the severity of this continued impact through human activities.

DeepDive: estimating global biodiversity patterns through time using deep learning

Understanding how biodiversity has changed through time is a central goal of evolutionary biology. However, estimates of past biodiversity are challenged by the inherent incompleteness of the fossil record, even when state-of-the-art statistical methods are applied to adjust estimates while correcting for sampling biases. Here we develop an approach based on stochastic simulations of biodiversity and a deep learning model to infer richness at global or regional scales through time while incorporating spatial, temporal and taxonomic sampling variation. Our method outperforms alternative approaches across simulated datasets, especially at large spatial scales, providing robust palaeodiversity estimates under a wide range of preservation scenarios. We apply our method on two empirical datasets of different taxonomic and temporal scope: the Permian-Triassic record of marine animals and the Cenozoic evolution of proboscideans. Our estimates provide a revised quantitative assessment of two mass extinctions in the marine record and reveal rapid diversification of proboscideans following their expansion out of Africa and a >70% diversity drop in the Pleistocene.

Geographic differences in body size distributions underlie food web connectance of tropical forest mammals

Understanding variation in food web structure over large spatial scales is an emerging research agenda in food web ecology. The density of predator-prey links in a food web (i.e., connectance) is a key measure of network complexity that describes the mean proportional dietary breadth of species within a food web. Connectance is a critical component of food web robustness to species loss: food webs with lower connectance have been shown to be more susceptible to secondary extinctions. Identifying geographic variation in food web connectance and its drivers may provide insight into community robustness to species loss. We investigated the food web connectance of ground-dwelling tropical forest mammal communities in multiple biogeographic regions to test for differences among regions in food web connectance and to test three potential drivers: primary productivity, contemporary anthropogenic pressure, and variation in mammal body mass distributions reflective of historical extinctions. Mammal communities from fifteen protected forests throughout the Neo-, Afro-, and Asian tropics were identified from systematic camera trap arrays. Predator-prey interaction data were collected from published literature, and we calculated connectance for each community as the number of observed predator-prey links relative to the number of possible predator-prey links. We used generalized linear models to test for differences among regions and to identify the site level characteristics that best predicted connectance. We found that mammal food web connectance varied significantly among continents and that body size range was the only significant predictor. More possible predator-prey links were observed in communities with smaller ranges in body size and therefore sites with smaller body size ranges had higher mean proportional dietary breadth. Specifically, mammal communities in the Neotropics and in Madagascar had significantly higher connectance than mammal communities in Africa. This geographic variation in contemporary mammalian food web structure may be the product of historical extinctions in the Late Quaternary, which led to greater losses of large-bodied species in the Neotropics and Madagascar thus contributing to higher average proportional dietary breadth among the remaining smaller bodied species in these regions.

Genome-wide diversity, population structure and signatures of inbreeding in the African buffalo in Mozambique

The African buffalo, Syncerus caffer, is a key species in African ecosystems. Like other large herbivores, it plays a fundamental role in its habitat acting as an ecosystem engineer. Over the last few centuries, African buffalo populations have declined because of range contraction and demographic decline caused by direct or indirect human activities. In Mozambique, historically home to large buffalo herds, the combined effect of colonialism and subsequent civil wars has created a critical situation that urgently needs to be addressed. In this study, we focused on the analysis of genetic diversity of Syncerus caffer caffer populations from six areas of Mozambique. Using genome-wide SNPs obtained from ddRAD sequencing, we examined the population structure across the country, estimated gene flow between areas under conservation management, including national reserves, and assessed the inbreeding coefficients. Our results indicate that all studied populations of Syncerus caffer caffer are genetically depauperate, with a high level of inbreeding. Moreover, buffaloes in Mozambique present a significant population differentiation between southern and central areas. We found an unexpected genotype in the Gorongosa National Park, where buffaloes experienced a dramatic population size reduction, that shares a common ancestry with southern populations of Catuane and Namaacha. This could suggest the past occurrence of a connection between southern and central Mozambique and that the observed population structuring could reflect recent events of anthropogenic origin. All the populations analysed showed high levels of homozygosity, likely due to extensive inbreeding over the last few decades, which could have increased the frequency of recessive deleterious alleles. Improving the resilience of Syncerus caffer caffer in Mozambique is essential for preserving the ecosystem integrity. The most viable approach appears to be facilitating translocations and re-establishing connectivity between isolated herds. However, our results also highlight the importance of assessing intraspecific genetic diversity when considering interventions aimed at enhancing population viability such as selecting suitable source populations.

Ecological filtering shapes the impacts of agricultural deforestation on biodiversity

The biodiversity impacts of agricultural deforestation vary widely across regions. Previous efforts to explain this variation have focused exclusively on the landscape features and management regimes of agricultural systems, neglecting the potentially critical role of ecological filtering in shaping deforestation tolerance of extant species assemblages at large geographical scales via selection for functional traits. Here we provide a large-scale test of this role using a global database of species abundance ratios between matched agricultural and native forest sites that comprises 71 avian assemblages reported in 44 primary studies, and a companion database of 10 functional traits for all 2,647 species involved. Using meta-analytic, phylogenetic and multivariate methods, we show that beyond agricultural features, filtering by the extent of natural environmental variability and the severity of historical anthropogenic deforestation shapes the varying deforestation impacts across species assemblages. For assemblages under greater environmental variability-proxied by drier and more seasonal climates under a greater disturbance regime-and longer deforestation histories, filtering has attenuated the negative impacts of current deforestation by selecting for functional traits linked to stronger deforestation tolerance. Our study provides a previously largely missing piece of knowledge in understanding and managing the biodiversity consequences of deforestation by agricultural deforestation.

Characteristic processes of human evolution caused the Anthropocene and may obstruct its global solutions

We propose that the global environmental crises of the Anthropocene are the outcome of a ratcheting process in long-term human evolution which has favoured groups of increased size and greater environmental exploitation. To explore this hypothesis, we review the changes in the human ecological niche. Evidence indicates the growth of the human niche has been facilitated by group-level cultural traits for environmental control. Following this logic, sustaining the biosphere under intense human use will probably require global cultural traits, including legal and technical systems. We investigate the conditions for the evolution of global cultural traits. We estimate that our species does not exhibit adequate population structure to evolve these traits. Our analysis suggests that characteristic patterns of human group-level cultural evolution created the Anthropocene and will work against global collective solutions to the environmental challenges it poses. We illustrate the implications of this theory with alternative evolutionary paths for humanity. We conclude that our species must alter longstanding patterns of cultural evolution to avoid environmental disaster and escalating between-group competition. We propose an applied research and policy programme with the goal of avoiding these outcomes. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.

Worldwide Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene population declines in extant megafauna are associated with Homo sapiens expansion rather than climate change

The worldwide extinction of megafauna during the Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene is evident from the fossil record, with dominant theories suggesting a climate, human or combined impact cause. Consequently, two disparate scenarios are possible for the surviving megafauna during this time period - they could have declined due to similar pressures, or increased in population size due to reductions in competition or other biotic pressures. We therefore infer population histories of 139 extant megafauna species using genomic data which reveal population declines in 91% of species throughout the Quaternary period, with larger species experiencing the strongest decreases. Declines become ubiquitous 32-76 kya across all landmasses, a pattern better explained by worldwide Homo sapiens expansion than by changes in climate. We estimate that, in consequence, total megafauna abundance, biomass, and energy turnover decreased by 92-95% over the past 50,000 years, implying major human-driven ecosystem restructuring at a global scale.

The Effects of Anthropogenic Disturbances on the Spatiotemporal Patterns of Medium-Large Mammals in Tropical Volcanic Landscapes

A comprehensive understanding of the consequences of human interactions with mammals is a critical factor in supporting and conserving species in landscapes dominated by humans, which are increasingly threatened. This study aimed to identify the spatial and temporal interactions between humans and mammals. A non-parametric statistical approach with kernel density was used to detect human-mammal temporal interactions. The species interaction factor (SIF) was applied to calculate the spatial overlap based on the two-species occupancy detection model. The activity patterns of medium mammals were nocturnal, diurnal, and cathemeral. The human-medium mammal pairs with SIF values that were <1 and statistically significant included the human-long-tailed macaque (Macaca fascicularis) pair, the human-leopard cat (Prionailurus bengalensis) pair, and the human-barking deer (Muntiacus muntjac) pair. Based on their SIF values and the high overlap in their activity times, the human-macaque pairings had a high risk of conflict. Barking deer and leopard cats displayed a coexistence with humans via time-sharing activities. Due to temporal niche variations with human activities, the existence of nocturnal mammals was relatively uninterrupted. This study showed that most mammals are able to adapt spatially and temporally to various human activities. Nonetheless, efforts to mitigate human-wildlife conflict must be maintained, particularly in the case of severely endangered species, such as the Sunda pangolin.

Large mammals and trees in eastern monsoonal China: anthropogenic losses since the Late Pleistocene and restoration prospects in the Anthropocene

Massive human-induced declines of large-sized animals and trees (megabiota) from the Late Pleistocene to the Anthropocene have resulted in downsized ecosystems across the globe, in which components and functions have been greatly simplified. In response, active restoration projects of extant large-sized species or functional substitutes are needed at large scales to promote ecological processes that are important for ecosystem self-regulation and biodiversity maintenance. Despite the desired global scope of such projects, they have received little attention in East Asia. Here, we synthesise the biogeographical and ecological knowledge of megabiota in ancient and modern China, with relevant data mostly located in eastern monsoonal China (EMC), aiming to assess its potential for restoring functionally intact ecosystems modulated by megabiota. We found that during the Late Pleistocene, 12 mammalian megafaunal (carnivores ≥15 kg and herbivores ≥500 kg) species disappeared from EMC: one carnivore Crocuta ultima (East Asian spotted hyena) and 11 herbivores including six megaherbivores (≥1000 kg). The relative importance of climate change and humans in driving these losses remains debated, despite accumulating evidence in favour of the latter. Later massive depletion of megafauna and large-sized (45-500 kg) herbivores has been closely associated with agricultural expansion and societal development, especially during the late Holocene. While forests rich in large timber trees (33 taxa in written records) were common in the region 2000-3000 years ago, millennial-long logging has resulted in considerable range contractions and at least 39 threatened species. The wide distribution of C. ultima, which likely favoured open or semi-open habitats (like extant spotted hyenas), suggests the existence of mosaic open and closed vegetation in the Late Pleistocene across EMC, in line with a few pollen-based vegetation reconstructions and potentially, or at least partially, reflecting herbivory by herbivorous megafauna. The widespread loss of megaherbivores may have strongly compromised seed dispersal for both megafruit (fleshy fruits with widths ≥40 mm) and non-megafruit plant species in EMC, especially in terms of extra-long-distance (>10 km) dispersal, which is critical for plant species that rely on effective biotic agents to track rapid climate change. The former occurrence of large mammals and trees have translated into rich material and non-material heritages passed down across generations. Several reintroduction projects have been implemented or are under consideration, with the case of Elaphurus davidianus a notable success in recovering wild populations in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, although trophic interactions with native carnivorous megafauna have not yet been restored. Lessons of dealing with human-wildlife conflicts are key to public support for maintaining landscapes shared with megafauna and large herbivores in the human-dominated Anthropocene. Meanwhile, potential human-wildlife conflicts, e.g. public health risks, need to be scientifically informed and effectively reduced. The Chinese government's strong commitment to improved policies of ecological protection and restoration (e.g. ecological redlines and national parks) provides a solid foundation for a scaling-up contribution to the global scope needed for solving the crisis of biotic downsizing and ecosystem degradation.

Pre-Younger Dryas megafaunal extirpation at Rancho La Brea linked to fire-driven state shift

The cause, or causes, of the Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions have been difficult to establish, in part because poor spatiotemporal resolution in the fossil record hinders alignment of species disappearances with archeological and environmental data. We obtained 172 new radiocarbon dates on megafauna from Rancho La Brea in California spanning 15.6 to 10.0 thousand calendar years before present (ka). Seven species of extinct megafauna disappeared by 12.9 ka, before the onset of the Younger Dryas. Comparison with high-resolution regional datasets revealed that these disappearances coincided with an ecological state shift that followed aridification and vegetation changes during the Bølling-Allerød (14.69 to 12.89 ka). Time-series modeling implicates large-scale fires as the primary cause of the extirpations, and the catalyst of this state shift may have been mounting human impacts in a drying, warming, and increasingly fire-prone ecosystem.

Priorities for conserving the world's terrestrial mammals based on over-the-horizon extinction risk

Three major axes of global change put the world's mammal biodiversity at risk: climate change, human population growth, and land-use change.^{1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12} In some parts of the world the full effects of these threats on species will only be felt in decades to come, yet conservation emphasizes species currently threatened with extinction, by threats that have already occurred. There have been calls for conservation to become more proactive by anticipating and protecting species that may not yet be threatened, but have a high chance of becoming threatened in the future.^{3,6,8,10,12,13,14} We refer to this as "over-the-horizon" extinction risk, and we identify such species among the world's nonmarine mammals by considering not only the severity of increase in threats faced by each species, but also the way each species' biology confers sensitivity or robustness to threats. We define four future risk factors based on species' biology and projected exposure to severe change in climate, human population, and land use. We regard species with two or more of these risk factors as especially vulnerable to future extinction risk.^{10,15,16,17,18,19} Our models predict that by 2100 up to 1,057 (20%) of nonmarine mammal species will have combinations of two or more future risk factors. These species will be particularly concentrated in two future risk hotspots in sub-Saharan Africa and southern/eastern Australia. Proactively targeting species with over-the-horizon extinction risk could help to future-proof global conservation planning and prevent a new wave of mammal species from becoming threatened with extinction by the end of this century.

An animal crisis caused by pollution, deforestation, and warming in the late 21st century and exacerbation by nuclear war

An environmental-animal crisis is currently ongoing and is becoming increasingly severe due to human activity. However, the magnitude, timing, and processes related to this crisis are unclear. This paper clarifies the likely magnitude and timing of animal extinctions and changes in the contribution rates of select causes (global warming, pollution, deforestation, and two hypothetical nuclear conflicts) of animal extinctions during 2000-2300 CE. This paper demonstrates that an animal crisis marked by a 5-13% terrestrial tetrapod species loss and 2-6% marine animal species loss will occur in the next generation during 2060-2080 CE if humans do not engage in nuclear wars. These variations are due to magnitudes of pollution, deforestation, and global warming. The main causes of this crisis will change from pollution and deforestation to deforestation in 2030 under the low CO₂ emission scenarios but will change from pollution and deforestation to deforestation in 2070 and then to deforestation and global warming after 2090 under the medium CO₂ emissions. A nuclear conflict will increase animal species loss up to approximately 40-70% for terrestrial tetrapod species and 25-50% for marine animal species, including errors. Therefore, this study shows that the animal species conservation priority is to prevent nuclear war, reduce deforestation rates, decrease pollution, and limit global warming, in this order.

Will biomimetic robots be able to change a hivemind to guide honeybees' ecosystem services?

We study whether or not a group of biomimetic waggle dancing robots is able to significantly influence the swarm-intelligent decision making of a honeybee colony, e.g. to avoid foraging at dangerous food patches using a mathematical model. Our model was successfully validated against data from two empirical experiments: one examined the selection of foraging targets and the other cross inhibition between foraging targets. We found that such biomimetic robots have a significant effect on a honeybee colony's foraging decision. This effect correlates with the number of applied robots up to several dozens of robots and then saturates quickly with higher robot numbers. These robots can reallocate the bees' pollination service in a directed way towards desired locations or boost it at specific locations, without having a significant negative effect on the colony's nectar economy. Additionally, we found that such robots may be able to lower the influx of toxic substances from potentially harmful foraging sites by guiding the bees to alternative places. These effects also depend on the saturation level of the colony's nectar stores. The more nectar is already stored in the colony, the easier the bees are guided by the robots to alternative foraging targets. Our study shows that biomimetic and socially immersive biomimetic robots are a relevant future research target in order to support (a) the bees by guiding them to safe (pesticide free) places, (b) the ecosystem via boosted and directed pollination services and (c) human society by supporting agricultural crop pollination, thus increasing our food security this way.

The global biomass of wild mammals

Wild mammals are icons of conservation efforts, yet there is no rigorous estimate available for their overall global biomass. Biomass as a metric allows us to compare species with very different body sizes, and can serve as an indicator of wild mammal presence, trends, and impacts, on a global scale. Here, we compiled estimates of the total abundance (i.e., the number of individuals) of several hundred mammal species from the available data, and used these to build a model that infers the total biomass of terrestrial mammal species for which the global abundance is unknown. We present a detailed assessment, arriving at a total wet biomass of ≈20 million tonnes (Mt) for all terrestrial wild mammals (95% CI 13-38 Mt), i.e., ≈3 kg per person on earth. The primary contributors to the biomass of wild land mammals are large herbivores such as the white-tailed deer, wild boar, and African elephant. We find that even-hoofed mammals (artiodactyls, such as deer and boars) represent about half of the combined mass of terrestrial wild mammals. In addition, we estimated the total biomass of wild marine mammals at ≈40 Mt (95% CI 20-80 Mt), with baleen whales comprising more than half of this mass. In order to put wild mammal biomass into perspective, we additionally estimate the biomass of the remaining members of the class Mammalia. The total mammal biomass is overwhelmingly dominated by livestock (≈630 Mt) and humans (≈390 Mt). This work is a provisional census of wild mammal biomass on Earth and can serve as a benchmark for human impacts.

Prehistoric pathways to Anthropocene adaptation: Evidence from the Red River Delta, Vietnam

Over the past twenty years, government advisory bodies have placed increasing emphasis on the need for adaptive measures in response to the effects of human-induced climate change. Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), which incorporate macroeconomic and climate variables, feature prominently in advisory content, though they rarely draw on data from outside strictly constrained hypothetical systems. This has led to assertions that they are not well-suited to approximate complex systemic human-environment processes. Modular, interdisciplinary approaches have offered a way to address this shortcoming; however, beyond climate records, prehistoric data continue to be under-utilised in developing such models. In this paper we highlight the contribution that archaeology and palaeoecology can make to the development of the next generation IAMs that are expected to enhance provision for more local and pro-active adaptations to future climate change. We present data from one of Southeast Asia's most heavily developed river deltas: the Red River (Song Hong) Delta, in Vietnam and localised analysis from the Tràng An Landscape Complex World Heritage Site, on the delta's southern margin. Comparison is made between Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) 5-8.5 and SSP2-4.5 emission projection models and the Mid-Holocene inundation of the Red River Basin. We highlight the value to taking a scientific long view of coastal evolution through an illustrative set of eight research foci where palaeo-data can bring new and localised empirical data to bear on future risk management planning. We proceed to demonstrate the applicability of palaeoenvironmental, zooarchaeological and historical evidence to management and the development of sustainable conservation strategies using Tràng An as a case study. In so doing, we further highlight the importance of knowledge exchange between scientific, corporate, non-governmental, local, and state stakeholders to achieve tangible results on the ground.

Madagascar’s extraordinary biodiversity: Threats and opportunities

Madagascar’s unique biota is heavily affected by human activity and is under intense threat. Here, we review the current state of knowledge on the conservation status of Madagascar’s terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity by presenting data and analyses on documented and predicted species-level conservation statuses, the most prevalent and relevant threats, ex situ collections and programs, and the coverage and comprehensiveness of protected areas. The existing terrestrial protected area network in Madagascar covers 10.4% of its land area and includes at least part of the range of the majority of described native species of vertebrates with known distributions (97.1% of freshwater fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals combined) and plants (67.7%). The overall figures are higher for threatened species (97.7% of threatened vertebrates and 79.6% of threatened plants occurring within at least one protected area). International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments and Bayesian neural network analyses for plants identify overexploitation of biological resources and unsustainable agriculture as the most prominent threats to biodiversity. We highlight five opportunities for action at multiple levels to ensure that conservation and ecological restoration objectives, programs, and activities take account of complex underlying and interacting factors and produce tangible benefits for the biodiversity and people of Madagascar.

Megafauna extinctions produce idiosyncratic Anthropocene assemblages

The "trophic downgrading of planet Earth" refers to the systematic decline of the world's largest vertebrates. However, our understanding of why megafauna extinction risk varies through time and the importance of site- or species-specific factors remain unclear. Here, we unravel the unexpected variability in remaining terrestrial megafauna assemblages across 10 Southeast Asian tropical forests. Consistent with global trends, every landscape experienced Holocene and/or Anthropocene megafauna extirpations, and the four most disturbed landscapes experienced 2.5 times more extirpations than the six least disturbed landscapes. However, there were no consistent size- or guild-related trends, no two tropical forests had identical assemblages, and the abundance of four species showed positive relationships with forest degradation and humans. Our results suggest that the region's megafauna assemblages are the product of a convoluted geoclimatic legacy interacting with modern disturbances and that some megafauna may persist in degraded tropical forests near settlements with sufficient poaching controls.

Analysis of differences and commonalities in wildlife hunting across the Africa-Europe South-North gradient

Hunting and its impacts on wildlife are typically studied regionally, with a particular focus on the Global South. Hunting can, however, also undermine rewilding efforts or threaten wildlife in the Global North. Little is known about how hunting manifests under varying socioeconomic and ecological contexts across the Global South and North. Herein, we examined differences and commonalities in hunting characteristics across an exemplary Global South-North gradient approximated by the Human Development Index (HDI) using face-to-face interviews with 114 protected area (PA) managers in 25 African and European countries. Generally, we observed that hunting ranges from the illegal, economically motivated, and unsustainable hunting of herbivores in the South to the legal, socially and ecologically motivated hunting of ungulates within parks and the illegal hunting of mainly predators outside parks in the North. Commonalities across this Africa-Europe South-North gradient included increased conflict-related killings in human-dominated landscapes and decreased illegal hunting with beneficial community conditions, such as mutual trust resulting from community involvement in PA management. Nevertheless, local conditions cannot outweigh the strong effect of the HDI on unsustainable hunting. Our findings highlight regional challenges that require collaborative, integrative efforts in wildlife conservation across actors, while identified commonalities may outline universal mechanisms for achieving this goal.

Hunting and its impacts on wildlife are typically studied regionally, with a particular focus on the Global South. An assessment across a contrasting South-North gradient reveals differences in the ecological, social, and economic dimensions of hunting, but also identifies commonalities that point to general ways to reduce unsustainable hunting.

Collapse of terrestrial mammal food webs since the Late Pleistocene

Food webs influence ecosystem diversity and functioning. Contemporary defaunation has reduced food web complexity, but simplification caused by past defaunation is difficult to reconstruct given the sparse paleorecord of predator-prey interactions. We identified changes to terrestrial mammal food webs globally over the past ~130,000 years using extinct and extant mammal traits, geographic ranges, observed predator-prey interactions, and deep learning models. Food webs underwent steep regional declines in complexity through loss of food web links after the arrival and expansion of human populations. We estimate that defaunation has caused a 53% decline in food web links globally. Although extinctions explain much of this effect, range losses for extant species degraded food webs to a similar extent, highlighting the potential for food web restoration via extant species recovery.

Adapting mark-recapture methods to estimating accepted species-level diversity: a case study with terrestrial Gastropoda

We introduce a new method of estimating accepted species diversity by adapting mark-recapture methods to comparisons of taxonomic databases. A taxonomic database should become more complete over time, so the error bar on an estimate of its completeness and the known diversity of the taxon it treats will decrease. Independent databases can be correlated, so we use the time course of estimates comparing them to understand the effect of correlation. If a later estimate is significantly larger than an earlier one, the databases are positively correlated, if it is significantly smaller, they are negatively correlated, and if the estimate remains roughly constant, then the correlations have averaged out. We tested this method by estimating how complete MolluscaBase is for accepted names of terrestrial gastropods. Using random samples of names from an independent database, we determined whether each name led to a name accepted in MolluscaBase. A sample tested in August 2020 found that 16.7% of tested names were missing; one in July 2021 found 5.3% missing. MolluscaBase grew by almost 3,000 accepted species during this period, reaching 27,050 species. The estimates ranged from 28,409 ± 365 in 2021 to 29,063 ± 771 in 2020. All estimates had overlapping 95% confidence intervals, indicating that correlations between the databases did not cause significant problems. Uncertainty beyond sampling error added 475 ± 430 species, so our estimate for accepted terrestrial gastropods species at the end of 2021 is 28,895 ± 630 species. This estimate is more than 4,000 species higher than previous ones. The estimate does not account for ongoing flux of species into and out of synonymy, new discoveries, or changing taxonomic methods and concepts. The species naming curve for terrestrial gastropods is still far from reaching an asymptote, and combined with the additional uncertainties, this means that predicting how many more species might ultimately be recognized is presently not feasible. Our methods can be applied to estimate the total number of names of Recent mollusks (as opposed to names currently accepted), the known diversity of fossil mollusks, and known diversity in other phyla.

The effect of past defaunation on ranges, niches, and future biodiversity forecasts

Humans have reshaped the distribution of biodiversity across the globe, extirpating species from regions otherwise suitable and restricting populations to a subset of their original ranges. Here, we ask if anthropogenic range contractions since the Late Pleistocene led to an under-representation of the realized niches for megafauna, an emblematic group of taxa often targeted for restoration actions. Using reconstructions of past geographic distributions (i.e., natural ranges) for 146 extant terrestrial large-bodied (>44 kg) mammals, we estimate their climatic niches as if they had retained their original distributions and evaluate their observed niche dynamics. We found that range contractions led to a sizeable under-representation of the realized niches of several species (i.e., niche unfilling). For 29 species, more than 10% of the environmental space once seen in their natural ranges has been lost due to anthropogenic activity, with at least 12 species undergoing reductions of more than 50% of their realized niches. Eighteen species may now be confined to low-suitability locations, where fitness and abundance are likely diminished; we consider these taxa 'climatic refugees'. For those species, conservation strategies supported by current ranges risk being misguided if current, suboptimal habitats are considered baseline for future restoration actions. Because most climate-based biodiversity forecasts rely exclusively on current occurrence records, we went on to test the effect of neglecting historical information on estimates of species' potential distribution - as a proxy of sensitivity to climate change. We found that niche unfilling driven by past range contraction leads to an overestimation of sensitivity to future climatic change, resulting in 50% higher rates of global extinction, and underestimating the potential for megafauna conservation and restoration under future climate change. In conclusion, range contractions since the Late Pleistocene have also left imprints on megafauna realized climatic niches. Therefore, niche truncation driven by defaunation can directly affect climate and habitat-based conservation strategies.

Improving biodiversity protection through artificial intelligence

Over a million species face extinction, urging the need for conservation policies that maximize the protection of biodiversity to sustain its manifold contributions to people. Here we present a novel framework for spatial conservation prioritization based on reinforcement learning that consistently outperforms available state-of-the-art software using simulated and empirical data. Our methodology, CAPTAIN (Conservation Area Prioritization Through Artificial INtelligence), quantifies the trade-off between the costs and benefits of area and biodiversity protection, allowing the exploration of multiple biodiversity metrics. Under a limited budget, our model protects substantially more species from extinction than areas selected randomly or naively (such as based on species richness). CAPTAIN achieves substantially better solutions with empirical data than alternative software, meeting conservation targets more reliably and generating more interpretable prioritization maps. Regular biodiversity monitoring, even with a degree of inaccuracy characteristic of citizen science surveys, substantially improves biodiversity outcomes. Artificial intelligence holds great promise for improving the conservation and sustainable use of biological and ecosystem values in a rapidly changing and resourcelimited world.

Improving biodiversity protection through artificial intelligence

Over a million species face extinction, urging the need for conservation policies that maximize the protection of biodiversity to sustain its manifold contributions to people. Here we present a novel framework for spatial conservation prioritization based on reinforcement learning that consistently outperforms available state-of-the-art software using simulated and empirical data. Our methodology, CAPTAIN (Conservation Area Prioritization Through Artificial INtelligence), quantifies the trade-off between the costs and benefits of area and biodiversity protection, allowing the exploration of multiple biodiversity metrics. Under a limited budget, our model protects substantially more species from extinction than areas selected randomly or naively (such as based on species richness). CAPTAIN achieves substantially better solutions with empirical data than alternative software, meeting conservation targets more reliably and generating more interpretable prioritization maps. Regular biodiversity monitoring, even with a degree of inaccuracy characteristic of citizen science surveys, substantially improves biodiversity outcomes. Artificial intelligence holds great promise for improving the conservation and sustainable use of biological and ecosystem values in a rapidly changing and resourcelimited world.

Predator or provider? How wild animals respond to mixed messages from humans

Wild animals encounter humans on a regular basis, but humans vary widely in their behaviour: whereas many people ignore wild animals, some people present a threat, while others encourage animals' presence through feeding. Humans thus send mixed messages to which animals must respond appropriately to be successful. Some species appear to circumvent this problem by discriminating among and/or socially learning about humans, but it is not clear whether such learning strategies are actually beneficial in most cases. Using an individual-based model, we consider how learning rate, individual recognition (IR) of humans, and social learning (SL) affect wild animals' ability to reach an optimal avoidance strategy when foraging in areas frequented by humans. We show that 'true' IR of humans could be costly. We also find that a fast learning rate, while useful when human populations are homogeneous or highly dangerous, can cause unwarranted avoidance in other scenarios if animals generalize. SL reduces this problem by allowing conspecifics to observe benign interactions with humans. SL and a fast learning rate also improve the viability of IR. These results provide an insight into how wild animals may be affected by, and how they may cope with, contrasting human behaviour.

Drivers of diversification in freshwater gastropods vary over deep time

Unravelling the drivers of species diversification through geological time is of crucial importance for our understanding of long-term evolutionary processes. Numerous studies have proposed different sets of biotic and abiotic controls of speciation and extinction rates, but typically they were inferred for a single, long geological time frame. However, whether the impact of biotic and abiotic controls on diversification changes over time is poorly understood. Here, we use a large fossil dataset, a multivariate birth-death model and a comprehensive set of biotic and abiotic predictors, including a new index to quantify tectonic complexity, to estimate the drivers of diversification for European freshwater gastropods over the past 100 Myr. The effects of these factors on origination and extinction are estimated across the entire time frame as well as within sequential time windows of 20 Myr each. Our results find support for temporal heterogeneity in the factors associated with changes in diversification rates. While the factors impacting speciation and extinction rates vary considerably over time, diversity-dependence and topography are consistently important. Our study highlights that a high level of heterogeneity in diversification rates is best captured by incorporating time-varying effects of biotic and abiotic factors.

Factors influencing range contraction of a rodent herbivore in a steppe grassland over the past decades

Climate warming and human disturbance are known to be key drivers in causing range contraction of many species, but quantitative assessment on their distinctive and interactive effects on local disappearance is still rare.In this study, we examined the association of climate warming and human disturbance stressors with local disappearance probability of Brandt's voles (Lasiopodomys brandtii) in a steppe grassland in northern China.We used logistic generalized additive models to quantify the relationship between local disappearance probability of Brandt's voles and environmental variables. The year following the last observation year was used to estimate the disappearance threshold of Brandt's voles. We projected the distribution change of Brandt's voles under future climate warming scenarios.We found climate warming attributed to local disappearance and range contraction for southern populations of Brandt's voles from 1971 to 2020. Human stressors and high vegetation coverage increased the probability of local disappearance of voles in years of abundant precipitation. The southern boundary retreated northward at a speed of 99.0 km per decade with the temperature rise of 0.36°C. The disappearance threshold of maximum air temperature of Brandt's voles in the warmest month (27.50 ± 1.61°C) was similar to the lower critical temperature of its thermal neutral zone.Our study suggests that the rapid climate change over the past decades contributed to the range contraction of its southern boundary of this keystone species in the steppe grassland of China. It is necessary to take actions to preserve the isolated populations of Brandt's voles from the effects of accelerated climate change and human disturbance.

The effects of defaunation on plants' capacity to track climate change

Half of all plant species rely on animals to disperse their seeds. Seed dispersal interactions lost through defaunation and gained during novel community assembly influence whether plants can adapt to climate change through migration. We develop trait-based models to predict pairwise interactions and dispersal function for fleshy-fruited plants globally. Using interactions with introduced species as an observable proxy for interactions in future novel seed dispersal networks, we find strong potential to forecast their assembly and functioning. We conservatively estimate that mammal and bird defaunation has already reduced the capacity of plants to track climate change by 60% globally. This strong reduction in the ability of plants to adapt to climate change through range shifts shows a synergy between defaunation and climate change that undermines vegetation resilience.

The legacy of the extinct Neotropical megafauna on plants and biomes

Large mammal herbivores are important drivers of plant evolution and vegetation patterns, but the extent to which plant trait and ecosystem geography currently reflect the historical distribution of extinct megafauna is unknown. We address this question for South and Central America (Neotropical biogeographic realm) by compiling data on plant defence traits, climate, soil, and fire, as well as on the historical distribution of extinct megafauna and extant mammal herbivores. We show that historical mammal herbivory, especially by extinct megafauna, and soil fertility explain substantial variability in wood density, leaf size, spines and latex. We also identified three distinct regions (''antiherbiomes''), differing in plant defences, environmental conditions, and megafauna history. These patterns largely matched those observed in African ecosystems, where abundant megafauna still roams, and suggest that some ecoregions experienced savanna-to-forest shifts following megafauna extinctions. Here, we show that extinct megafauna left a significant imprint on current ecosystem biogeography.

Global response of fire activity to late Quaternary grazer extinctions

[Figure: see text].

Cascading Impacts of Seed Disperser Loss on Plant Communities and Ecosystems

Seed dispersal is key to the persistence and spread of plant populations. Because the majority of plant species rely on animals to disperse their seeds, global change drivers that directly affect animals can cause cascading impacts on plant communities. In this review, we synthesize studies assessing how disperser loss alters plant populations, community patterns, multitrophic interactions, and ecosystem functioning. We argue that the magnitude of risk to plants from disperser loss is shaped by the combination of a plant species’ inherent dependence on seed dispersal and the severity of the hazards faced by their dispersers. Because the factors determining a plant species’ risk of decline due to disperser loss can be related to traits of the plants and dispersers, our framework enables a trait-based understanding of change in plant community composition and ecosystem functioning. We discuss how interactions among plants, among dispersers, and across other trophic levels also mediate plant community responses, and we identify areas for future research to understand and mitigate the consequences of disperser loss on plants globally.

Confirmed archaeological evidence of water deer in Vietnam: relics of the Pleistocene or a shifting baseline?

Studies of archaeological and palaeontological bone assemblages increasingly show that the historical distributions of many mammal species are unrepresentative of their longer-term geographical ranges in the Quaternary. Consequently, the geographical and ecological scope of potential conservation efforts may be inappropriately narrow. Here, we consider a case-in-point, the water deer Hydropotes inermis, which has historical native distributions in eastern China and the Korean peninsula. We present morphological and metric criteria for the taxonomic diagnosis of mandibles and maxillary canine fragments from Hang Thung Binh 1 cave in Tràng An World Heritage Site, which confirm the prehistoric presence of water deer in Vietnam. Dated to between 13 000 and 16 000 years before the present, the specimens are further evidence of a wider Quaternary distribution for these Vulnerable cervids, are valuable additions to a sparse Pleistocene fossil record and confirm water deer as a component of the Upper Pleistocene fauna of northern Vietnam. Palaeoenvironmental proxies suggest that the Tràng An water deer occupied cooler, but not necessarily drier, conditions than today. We consider if the specimens represent extirpated Pleistocene populations or indicate a previously unrecognized, longer-standing southerly distribution with possible implications for the conservation of the species in the future.

Effect of land use, habitat suitability, and hurricanes on the population connectivity of an endemic insular bat

Urbanization and natural disasters can disrupt landscape connectivity, effectively isolating populations and increasing the risk of local extirpation particularly in island systems. To understand how fragmentation affects corridors among forested areas, we used circuit theory to model the landscape connectivity of the endemic bat Stenoderma rufum within Puerto Rico. Our models combined species occurrences, land use, habitat suitability, and vegetation cover data that were used either as resistance (land use) or conductance layers (habitat suitability and vegetation cover). Urbanization affected connectivity overall from east to west and underscored protected and rustic areas for the maintenance of forest corridors. Suitable habitat provided a reliable measure of connectivity among potential movement corridors that connected more isolated areas. We found that intense hurricanes that disrupt forest integrity can affect connectivity of suitable habitat. Some of the largest protected areas in the east of Puerto Rico are at an increasing risk of becoming disconnected from more continuous forest patches. Given the increasing rate of urbanization, this pattern could also apply to other vertebrates. Our findings show the importance of maintaining forest integrity, emphasizing the considerable conservation value of rustic areas for the preservation of local biodiversity.

People have shaped most of terrestrial nature for at least 12,000 years

The current biodiversity crisis is often depicted as a struggle to preserve untouched habitats. Here, we combine global maps of human populations and land use over the past 12,000 y with current biodiversity data to show that nearly three quarters of terrestrial nature has long been shaped by diverse histories of human habitation and use by Indigenous and traditional peoples. With rare exceptions, current biodiversity losses are caused not by human conversion or degradation of untouched ecosystems, but rather by the appropriation, colonization, and intensification of use in lands inhabited and used by prior societies. Global land use history confirms that empowering the environmental stewardship of Indigenous peoples and local communities will be critical to conserving biodiversity across the planet.

Archaeological and paleoecological evidence shows that by 10,000 BCE, all human societies employed varying degrees of ecologically transformative land use practices, including burning, hunting, species propagation, domestication, cultivation, and others that have left long-term legacies across the terrestrial biosphere. Yet, a lingering paradigm among natural scientists, conservationists, and policymakers is that human transformation of terrestrial nature is mostly recent and inherently destructive. Here, we use the most up-to-date, spatially explicit global reconstruction of historical human populations and land use to show that this paradigm is likely wrong. Even 12,000 y ago, nearly three quarters of Earth’s land was inhabited and therefore shaped by human societies, including more than 95% of temperate and 90% of tropical woodlands. Lands now characterized as “natural,” “intact,” and “wild” generally exhibit long histories of use, as do protected areas and Indigenous lands, and current global patterns of vertebrate species richness and key biodiversity areas are more strongly associated with past patterns of land use than with present ones in regional landscapes now characterized as natural. The current biodiversity crisis can seldom be explained by the loss of uninhabited wildlands, resulting instead from the appropriation, colonization, and intensifying use of the biodiverse cultural landscapes long shaped and sustained by prior societies. Recognizing this deep cultural connection with biodiversity will therefore be essential to resolve the crisis.

Prey Size Decline as a Unifying Ecological Selecting Agent in Pleistocene Human Evolution

We hypothesize that megafauna extinctions throughout the Pleistocene, that led to a progressive decline in large prey availability, were a primary selecting agent in key evolutionary and cultural changes in human prehistory. The Pleistocene human past is characterized by a series of transformations that include the evolution of new physiological traits and the adoption, assimilation, and replacement of cultural and behavioral patterns. Some changes, such as brain expansion, use of fire, developments in stone-tool technologies, or the scale of resource intensification, were uncharacteristically progressive. We previously hypothesized that humans specialized in acquiring large prey because of their higher foraging efficiency, high biomass density, higher fat content, and the use of less complex tools for their acquisition. Here, we argue that the need to mitigate the additional energetic cost of acquiring progressively smaller prey may have been an ecological selecting agent in fundamental adaptive modes demonstrated in the Paleolithic archaeological record. We describe several potential associations between prey size decline and specific evolutionary and cultural changes that might have been driven by the need to adapt to increased energetic demands while hunting and processing smaller and smaller game.