The Future of Species Under Climate Change: Resilience or Decline?

Effects of Temperature on the Thermal Biology and Locomotor Performance of Two Sympatric Extreme Desert Lizards

Lizards are ideal models for investigating animal adaptations to climate change, given their sensitivity to temperature and their significance in physiological ecology. In this study, the effects of temperature on the thermal biology and locomotor performance of two sympatric desert lizards, Eremias roborowskii and Phrynocephalus axillaris, were examined. We analyzed morphological differences, the relationship between environmental temperatures (Te) and selected body temperatures (Tsel), and locomotor performance across varying Te. We also assessed the critical thermal maximum (CTmax) and active body temperature (Tb) to evaluate current thermal conditions. Our results indicate that E. roborowskii's Tsel line intersected isotherm at 27.37 °C is higher than P. axillaris (27.04 °C), and the difference in correlation coefficients between the Tsel line and isotherm indicates that P. axillaris exhibits a superior physiological thermoregulatory capacity, exhibiting less dependence on Te. Locomotor performance assessments showed P. axillaris and E. roborowskii displayed distinct strengths in sprint speed, number of pauses, and maximum distance movement. Eremias roborowskii demonstrated better endurance with fewer pauses and a more consistent length of continuous movement at higher Te, while P. axillaris exhibited a faster sprint speed (0.8355 vs. 0.8157 m/s at 30 °C) and greater movement distance (78.53 vs. 89.82 cm at 32 °C). These differences may be attributable to variations in body size and ecological strategies, as E. roborowskii is an ambush lizard, whereas P. axillaris is an active striking type, which suggests that there is a balanced relationship between endurance and speed. Our study provides critical insights into the convergent evolution and ecological adaptation of two sympatric lizard species in extreme desert ecosystems.

Patterns and correlates of potential range shifts of bat species in China in the context of climate change

Climate change may diminish biodiversity; thus, it is urgent to predict how species' ranges may shift in the future by integrating multiple factors involving more taxa. Bats are particularly sensitive to climate change due to their high surface-to-volume ratio. However, few studies have considered geographic variables associated with roost availability and even fewer have linked the distributions of bats to their thermoregulation and energy regulation traits. We used species distribution models to predict the potential distributions of 12 bat species in China under current and future greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) and examined factors that could affect species' range shifts, including climatic, geographic, habitat, and human activity variables and wing surface-to-mass ratio (S-MR). The results suggest that Ia io, Rhinolophus ferrumequinum, and Rhinolophus rex should be given the highest priority for conservation in future climate conservation strategies. Most species were predicted to move northward, except for I. io and R. rex, which moved southward. Temperature seasonality, distance to forest, and distance to karst or cave were the main environmental factors affecting the potential distributions of bats. We found significant relationships between S-MR and geographic distribution, current potential distribution, and future potential distribution in the 2050s. Our work highlights the importance of analyzing range shifts of species with multifactorial approaches, especially for species traits related to thermoregulation and energy regulation, to provide targeted conservation strategies.

The projected impacts of climate change and fishing pressure on a tropical marine food web

Small-scale fisheries, especially those from developing countries, are vital for millions. Understanding the impact of environmental and human factors on fish stocks and yields and how they might change is crucial to ensure the sustainable use of aquatic resources. We developed an ecosystem model using Ecopath and Ecosim (EwE) to investigate changes in target species biomass and ecosystem attributes over 83 years (2017-2100) caused by different scenarios of fishing pressure and ocean warming in the Brazilian Northeastern continental shelf. The simulations considered three IPCC climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 [0.42 °C], RCP4.5 [1.53 °C], and RCP8.5 [4.02 °C]) and four fishing pressure scenarios: two with increased pressure (10% and 30%) and two with decreased pressure (-10% and -30%). The Ecopath model indicated that the Brazilian Northeastern continental shelf ecosystem is a grazing-based system with high biomass in macroalgae and detritus compartments, supporting a diverse community of consumers. Our simulations projected overall reductions in the biomass of target species, mainly under extreme climate change. Increasing temperatures and fishing efforts reduced the biomass of large predatory species and the food web length in several scenarios. Although projected changes in ecological network and information metrics were of lower magnitude, results predicted declines in production/respiration ratio, material cycling, and ascendency (variable related to trophic specialization, internalization, and material cycling) with climate change. These declines were likely linked to increased respiration rates, metabolic costs, and lower trophic efficiency with elevated temperatures. Together, our results show how climate change and fishing pressure can change the structure of coastal ecosystems, potentially leading to undesirable alternative states for fisheries. Our approach demonstrates the effectiveness of ecosystem-based modeling in projecting likely trajectories of change, which can be especially useful for resource management in data-limited conditions.

Forecasting Range Shifts in Terrestrial Alpine Insects Under Global Warming

Anthropogenic planetary heating is disrupting global alpine systems, but our ability to empirically measure and predict responses in alpine species distributions is impaired by a lack of comprehensive data and technical limitations. We conducted a comprehensive, semi-quantitative review of empirical studies on contemporary range shifts in alpine insects driven by climate heating, drawing attention to methodological issues and potential biotic and abiotic factors influencing variation in responses. We highlight case studies showing how range dynamics may affect standing genetic variation and adaptive potential, and discuss how data integration frameworks can improve forecasts. Although biotic and abiotic factors influence individual species responses, most alpine insects studied so far are shifting to higher elevations. Upslope shifts are often accompanied by range contractions that are expected to diminish species genetic variation and adaptive potential, increasing extinction risk. Endemic species on islands are predicted to be especially vulnerable. Inferences drawn from the responses of alpine insects, also have relevance to species in other montane habitats. Correlative niche modelling is a keystone tool to predict range responses to planetary heating, but its limited ability to consider biological processes underpinning species' responses complicates interpretation. Alpine insects exhibit some potential to respond to rising temperatures via genetic change or phenotypic plasticity. Thus, future efforts should incorporate biological processes by using flexible hybrid niche modelling approaches to enhance the biological realism of predictions. Boosting scientific capability to envisage the future of alpine environments and their associated biota is imperative given that the speed and intensity of heating on high-mountain ecosystems can surpass our ability to collect the empirical data required to guide effective conservation planning and management decisions.

Genomic Vulnerability to Climate Change of an Australian Migratory Freshwater Fish, the Golden Perch (Macquaria ambigua)

Genomic vulnerability is a measure of how much evolutionary change is required for a population to maintain optimal genotype-environment associations under projected climates. Aquatic species, and in particular migratory ectotherms, are largely underrepresented in studies of genomic vulnerability. Such species might be well equipped for tracking suitable habitat and spreading diversity that could promote adaptation to future climates. We characterised range-wide genomic diversity and genomic vulnerability in the migratory and fisheries-important golden perch (Macquaria ambigua) from Australia's expansive Murray-Darling Basin (MDB). The MDB has a steep hydroclimatic gradient and is one of the world's most variable regions in terms of climate and streamflow. Golden perch are threatened by fragmentation and obstruction of waterways, alteration of flow regimes, and a progressively hotter and drying climate. We gathered a genomic dataset of 1049 individuals from 186 MDB localities. Despite high range-wide gene flow, golden perch in the warmer, northern catchments had higher predicted vulnerability than those in the cooler, southern catchments. A new cross-validation approach showed that these predictions were insensitive to the exclusion of individual catchments. The results raise concern for populations at warm range edges, which may already be close to their thermal limits. However, a population with functional variants beneficial for climate adaptation found in the most arid and hydrologically variable catchment was predicted to be less vulnerable. Native fish management plans, such as captive breeding and stocking, should consider spatial variation in genomic vulnerability to improve conservation outcomes under climate change, even for dispersive species with high connectivity.

Herbal extracts in orofacial pain: a systematic review and direct and indirect meta-analysis

The pharmaceutical industry has been primarily focused on developing synthetic drugs to address orofacial pain (OFP)-related conditions. There is limited knowledge regarding the efficacy of the use of herbal extracts in treating OFP. A systematic review and a meta-analysis of 62 randomized controlled trials assessing the analgesic effects of herbal extracts on pain intensity in various orofacial conditions was conducted. The intervention comprised the use of herbal extracts compared with a placebo and/or standard treatment. The primary outcome was pain intensity assessed before and after the intervention. The pain scores were compared with the baseline scores in each treatment. When compared with standard therapy, the pooled results of the patients who received herbal extracts revealed lower pain intensity in periodontal pain (MD = -0.92[-6.69, 4.85]), oral surgery pain (MD = 18.80[8.80, 28.79]), oral neuropathic pain (MD = 20.34[6.16, 34.52]), endodontic pain (MD = -8.04[-11.72, -4.37]), oral mucosal pain (MD = 8.74[2.76, 14.73]), and temporomandibular pain (MD = 30.94[6.04, 55.83]). The findings indicated a pain-attenuating effect of herbal extracts such as cannabis, turmeric, capsaicin, licorice, ginger, chamomile, clove, Hypericum perforatum, and Arnica montana. These findings revindicate that herbal extracts may be valuable alternatives to traditional pain medications and promising source for the development of new active ingredients for pharmaceuticals.

Unravelling spatial scale effects on elevational diversity gradients: insights from montane small mammals in Kenya

BACKGROUND

Montane ecosystems play crucial roles as global biodiversity hotspots. However, climatic changes and anthropogenic pressure increasingly threaten the stability of montane community dynamics, such as diversity-elevation interactions, creating a challenge in understanding species biogeography and community ecology dynamics in these crucial conservation areas. We examined how varying sampling spatial grains influence small mammal diversity patterns within Kenya's tallest montane ecosystems.

METHODS

Employing a combination of multidimensional alpha diversity metrics and multisite beta diversity characteristics (species richness, phylogenetic and functional diversity and divergence, and multisite beta diversity) alongside spatial generalized additive multivariate regression analyses, we tested how spatial scaling influences elevational diversity gradient patterns and their associations with environmental and human activity variables.

RESULTS

The diversity-elevation associations were generally homogeneous across spatial grains; however, idiosyncratic patterns emerged across mountains. The total (taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional) beta diversity, nestedness, and turnover resultant components monotonically increased or decreased with varying spatial grains. The associations between the diversity patterns and the environmental and human footprint variables increased with spatial grain size but also presented variations across mountains and indices. Species richness and phylogenetic and functional richness indices were more strongly influenced by spatial scale variations than were the divergence and community structure indices in both the diversity distribution patterns and their associations with the environmental and human variables.

CONCLUSIONS

The diversity-elevation and diversity-environment (including human activity pressure) relationships across spatial grains suggest that montane small mammal diversity patterns portray subtle but systematic sensitivity to sampling spatial grain variation and underscore the importance of geographical context in shaping these elevational diversity gradients. For improved effectiveness, conservation efforts should consider these spatial effects and the unique geographical background of individual montane ecosystems.

Enhancing production efficiency through optimizing plant density in maize-soybean strip intercropping

Introduction

Due to limited arable land resources, intercropping has emerged as an efficient and sustainable production method for increasing total grain yield per unit land area. Maize-soybean strip intercropping (MSSI) technology is being widely promoted and applied across China. However, the combination of optimal density for achieving higher production efficiency of both soybean and maize remains unclear. The objective of this study was to evaluate the differences in yield, economic benefits, land, and nitrogen (N) efficiency in MSSI systems under different densities.

Methods

Five maize/soybean density combinations (67,500/97,500 plants ha-1, D1; 67,500/120,000 plants ha-1, D2; 67,500/142,500 plants ha-1, D3; 60,000/142,500 plants ha-1, D4; 52,500/142,500 plants ha-1, D5) were set under the same N input in the field experiment.

Results and discussion

The results demonstrated that optimizing the density in the intercropping system could enhance production efficiency. Increasing the density of soybean and maize significantly increased the total grain yield (D3 > D2 > D1 > D4 > D5). The D3 treatment, exhibiting the best comprehensive performance, also promoted increases in leaf area index, dry matter accumulation, and N absorption and utilization. Path analysis indicated that density had the most substantial impact on maize yield, while grain number had the greatest influence on soybean yield, with contribution rates of 49.7% and 61.0%, respectively. These results provide valuable insights into optimal field density for summer planting in MSSI, facilitating its wider adoption.

Impacts of Distribution Data on Accurate Species Modeling: A Case Study of Litsea auriculata (Lauraceae)

Global warming has caused many species to become endangered or even extinct. Describing and predicting how species will respond to global warming is one of the hotspots of biodiversity research. Species distribution models predict the potential distribution of species based on species occurrence data. However, the impact of the accuracy of the distribution data on the prediction results is poorly studied. In this study, we used the endemic plant Litsea auriculata (Lauraceae) as a case study. By collecting and assembling six different datasets of this species, we used MaxEnt to perform species distribution modeling and then conducted comparative analyses. The results show that, based on our updated complete correct dataset (dataset 1), the suitable distribution of this species is mainly located in the Ta-pieh Mountain, southwestern Hubei and northern Zhejiang, and that mean diurnal temperature range (MDTR) and temperature annual range (TAR) play important roles in shaping the distribution of Litsea auriculata. Compared with the correct data, the wrong data leads to a larger and expanded range in the predicted distribution area, whereas the species modeling based on the correct but incomplete data predicts a small and contracted range. We found that only about 23.38% of Litsea auriculata is located within nature reserves, so there is a huge conservation gap. Our study emphasized the importance of correct and complete distribution data for accurate prediction of species distribution regions; both incomplete and incorrect data can give misleading prediction results. In addition, our study also revealed the distribution characteristics and conservation gap of Litsea auriculata, laying the foundation for the development of reasonable conservation strategies for this species.

Global patterns of plant functional traits and their relationships to climate

Plant functional traits (FTs) determine growth, reproduction and survival strategies of plants adapted to their growth environment. Exploring global geographic patterns of FTs, their covariation and their relationships to climate are necessary steps towards better-founded predictions of how global environmental change will affect ecosystem composition. We compile an extensive global dataset for 16 FTs and characterise trait-trait and trait-climate relationships separately within non-woody, woody deciduous and woody evergreen plant groups, using multivariate analysis and generalised additive models (GAMs). Among the six major FTs considered, two dominant trait dimensions-representing plant size and the leaf economics spectrum (LES) respectively-are identified within all three groups. Size traits (plant height, diaspore mass) however are generally higher in warmer climates, while LES traits (leaf mass and nitrogen per area) are higher in drier climates. Larger leaves are associated principally with warmer winters in woody evergreens, but with wetter climates in non-woody plants. GAM-simulated global patterns for all 16 FTs explain up to three-quarters of global trait variation. Global maps obtained by upscaling GAMs are broadly in agreement with iNaturalist citizen-science FT data. This analysis contributes to the foundations for global trait-based ecosystem modelling by demonstrating universal relationships between FTs and climate.

Water restriction alters seed bank traits and ecology in Atlantic Forest seasonal forests under climate change

The soil seed bank (SSB) is one of the key mechanisms that ensure the perpetuity of forests, but how will it behave in the scenarios projected for the future climate? Faced with this main question, still little explored in seasonal tropical forests, this study evaluated the germination, ecological attributes, and functional traits of the SSB in a seasonal forest in the Atlantic Forest. Forty-eight composite samples of the SSB were collected from 12 plots, distributed across four treatments, each with 12 replicates. The samples were placed in two climate-controlled greenhouses, establishing two environments of controlled climatic conditions, both with two levels of water, as follows: Cur: current scenario without water restriction; Cur_WR: current scenario with water restriction; RCP8.5: future scenario without water restriction; RCP8.5_WR: future scenario with water restriction. The germinants were identified, and their ecological attributes and functional traits were obtained. Leaf area and biomass production, differences in abundance, richness, and diversity were evaluated, along with analysis of variance to assess the interaction between water levels and scenarios. All ecological attributes and functional traits evaluated drastically decreased in the future projection with water restriction, with this restriction being the main component influencing this response. The increased temperature in the future scenario significantly raised water consumption compared to the current scenario. However, persistent water restrictions in the future could undermine the resilience of seasonal forests, hindering seed germination in the soil. Richness and abundance were also adversely affected by water scarcity in the future scenario, revealing a low tolerance to the projected prolonged drought. These changes found in the results could alter the overall structure of seasonal forests in the future, as well as result in the loss of the regeneration potential of the SSB due to decreased seed viability and increased seedling mortality.

Alpine Extremophytes in Evolutionary Turmoil: Complex Diversification Patterns and Demographic Responses of a Halophilic Grass in a Central Asian Biodiversity Hotspot

Diversification and demographic responses are key processes shaping species evolutionary history. Yet we still lack a full understanding of ecological mechanisms that shape genetic diversity at different spatial scales upon rapid environmental changes. In this study, we examined genetic differentiation in an extremophilic grass Puccinellia pamirica and factors affecting its population dynamics among the occupied hypersaline alpine wetlands on the arid Pamir Plateau in Central Asia. Using genomic data, we found evidence of fine-scale population structure and gene flow among the localities established across the high-elevation plateau as well as fingerprints of historical demographic expansion. We showed that an increase in the effective population size could coincide with the Last Glacial Period, which was followed by the species demographic decline during the Holocene. Geographic distance plays a vital role in shaping the spatial genetic structure of P. pamirica alongside with isolation-by-environment and habitat fragmentation. Our results highlight a complex history of divergence and gene flow in this species-poor alpine region during the Late Quaternary. We demonstrate that regional climate specificity and a shortage of nonclimate data largely impede predictions of future range changes of the alpine extremophile using ecological niche modeling. This study emphasizes the importance of fine-scale environmental heterogeneity for population dynamics and species distribution shifts.

Far away from home? Ancient DNA shows the presence of bicolored shrew (Crocidura leucodon) in Bronze Age Denmark

An excavation of an Early Iron Age village near Aalborg in Denmark uncovered the jaws and skull fragments from a small mammal that were morphologically identified to the genus Crocidura (white-toothed shrews). Three Crocidura species are known from prehistoric continental Europe but none of them are distributed in Scandinavia, which is why this surprising finding warranted further analyses. The bone was radiocarbon-dated to 2840-2750 calibrated years before present (cal. BP), corresponding to the Late Bronze Age and hence earlier than the Iron Age archeological context in which it was found. Using highly optimized ancient DNA protocols, we extracted DNA from one tooth and shotgun-sequenced the sample to reconstruct a near-complete mitochondrial reference genome (17,317 bp, 32.6× coverage). Phylogenetic analyses determined this specimen as a bicolored shrew (Crocidura leucodon) but with a phylogenetic position basal to the clade of known sequences from this species. The confirmation of Crocidura presence in Denmark by the Late Bronze Age sheds new light on the prehistoric natural history of Scandinavia. We discuss the implications of this finding from both zoo-archeological and ecological perspectives. Furthermore, the mitochondrial genome reconstructed in this study offers a valuable resource for future research exploring the genetic makeup and evolutionary history of Eurasian shrew populations.

A risk-based approach to the analysis of potential climate change effects on fish communities associated to Posidonia oceanica in the Mediterranean

The Mediterranean is recognized as a climate change hotspot, with ongoing warming anticipated to impact its habitats and their associated fish fauna. Among these habitats, the seagrass Posidonia oceanica stands out as a foundational species, critical for the stability of coastal fish communities. However, our understanding of climate change consequences on P. oceanica associated fish fauna to date remains limited in part due to a lack of long-term data. This study aimed to highlight potential climate change risks to fish species associated with Posidonia, integrating data on species' thermal envelopes with their habitat and depth preferences into a climate change risk index. Specifically, 9 species, including three pipefish and several wrasse species of the genus Symphodus, emerged as being at higher potential risk from climatic change. A historical time series from Palma Bay (Balearic Islands, Spain), spanning 45 years and providing clear evidence of warming, was employed to evaluate trends in species abundance and occurrence in relation to their relative climate risk score. While certain high-risk species like Symphodus cinereus and Diplodus annularis showed an increase in abundance over time, others, such as the pipefish Syngnathus acus, Syngnathus typhle and Nerophis maculatus experienced declines. The absence of observed declines in some high-risk species could be attributed to several factors, such as acclimation, adaptation, or unmet response thresholds. However, this does not rule out the potential for future changes in these species. Factors such as increased nutrient influx due to growing human populations and changes in fishing regulations may also have contributed to the observed trends. These findings underscore the intricate interplay of environmental and anthropogenic factors and accentuate the pressing need for sustained, long-term data acquisition to fathom the implications of climate change on this highly important marine ecosystem.

Prediction of the potential distribution of Chimonobambusautilis (Poaceae, Bambusoideae) in China, based on the MaxEnt model

Chimonobambusautilis is a unique edible bamboo species valued for its economic and nutritional benefits. However, its existence in natural habitats is at risk due to environmental shifts and human interventions. This research utilised the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to predict potential habitats for Ch.utilis in China, identifying key environmental factors influencing its distribution and analysing changes in suitable habitats under future climate conditions. The results show that the results of the MaxEnt model have high prediction accuracy, with an AUC (Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve) value of 0.997. Precipitation in the driest month (Bio14), altitude (Alt) and isothermality (Bio03) emerged as the primary environmental factors influencing the Ch.utilis distribution. Currently, the suitable habitats area for Ch.utilis is 10.55 × 104 km2. Projections for the 2050s and 2090s indicate potential changes in suitable habitats ranging from -3.79% to 10.52%. In general, the most suitable habitat area will decrease and shrink towards higher latitude areas in the future. This study provides a scientific basis for the introduction, cultivation and conservation of Ch.utilis.

Lineages of Fractal Genera Comprise the 88-Million-Year Steel Evolutionary Spine of the Ecosphere

Fractal evolution is apparently effective in selectively preserving environmentally resilient traits for more than 80 million years in Streptotrichaceae (Bryophyta). An analysis simulated maximum destruction of ancestral traits in that large lineage. The constraints enforced were the preservation of newest ancestral traits, and all immediate descendant species obtained different new traits. Maximum character state changes in ancestral traits were 16 percent of all possible traits in any one sub-lineage, or 73 percent total of the entire lineage. Results showed, however, that only four ancestral traits were permanently eliminated in any one lineage or sub-lineage. A lineage maintains maximum biodiversity of temporally and regionally survival-effective traits at minimum expense to resilience across a geologic time of 88 million years for the group studied. Similar processes generating an extant punctuated equilibrium as bursts of about four descendants per genus and one genus per 1-2 epochs are possible in other living groups given similar emergent processes. The mechanism is considered complexity-related, the lineage being a self-organized emergent phenomenon strongly maintained in the ecosphere by natural selection on fractal genera.

Potential distribution modelling for Haemonchus contortus (Nematoda: Trichostrongylidae) in South America

The species Haemonchus contortus occurs in many regions worldwide, mainly parasitising small ruminants and economically impacting animal production. Climate change is considered a driving force for the risk of diseases caused by helminths and can also affect relationships between parasites and their hosts, with the potential to cause losses in both animal production and biodiversity in general. The aim of this study was to model the potential distribution of H. contortus in South America. We used MaxEnt to perform the analyses and describe the contribution of important bioclimatic variables involved in the species distribution. Our results show that H. contortus colonised most of the areas with habitats that suit the species' environmental requirements and that this parasite presents habitat suitability in a future scenario. Understanding the effects of climate change on the occurrence and distribution of parasite species is essential for monitoring these pathogens, in addition to predicting the areas that tend to present future parasite outbreaks and identify opportunities to mitigate the impacts of the emergence of diseases caused by these organisms.

Nighttime warming and nitrogen addition effects on the microclimate of a freshwater wetland dominated by Phragmites australis

The critical impacts of microclimate on carbon (C) cycling have been widely reported. However, the potential effects of global change on wetland microclimate remain unclear, primarily because of the absence of field manipulative experiment in inundated wetland. This study was designed to examine the effects of nighttime warming and nitrogen (N) addition on air, water, and sediment temperature and also reveal the controlling factors in a Phragmites australis dominated freshwater wetland on the North China Plain. Nighttime warming increased daily air, water, and sediment temperature by 0.24 °C, 0.27 °C, and 0.36 °C, respectively. The diurnal temperature range of water was decreased by 0.44 °C under nighttime warming, whereas warming had no effect on diurnal temperature range of air and sediment. In addition, N addition caused a reduction of 0.20 °C and 0.14 °C in daily water and sediment temperature by increasing vegetation coverage. There was a significant interaction between nighttime warming and N addition on water temperature. Furthermore, the vapor pressure deficit is the main factor affecting the extent of the warming-induced increases in air temperature. The changes of height and leaf area index of Phragmites australis are responsible for the cooling effects in the N addition plots. This study provides empirical evidence for the positive climate warming - microclimate feedback in freshwater wetland. However, N deposition leads to decreased water and sediment temperature. Our findings highlight the importance of incorporating the differential impacts of nighttime warming and N addition on air, water, and sediment temperature into the predictions of wetland C cycling responses to climate change.

Modeling a hot, dry future: Substantial range reductions in suitable environment projected under climate change for a semiarid riparian predator guild

An understanding of species-environmental relationships is invaluable for effective conservation and management under anthropogenic climate change, especially for biodiversity hotspots such as riparian habitats. Species distribution models (SDMs) assess present species-environmental relationships which can project potential suitable environments through space and time. An understanding of environmental factors associated with distributions can guide conservation management strategies under a changing climate. We generated 260 ensemble SDMs for five species of Thamnophis gartersnakes (n = 347)-an important riparian predator guild-in a semiarid and biogeographically diverse region under impact from climate change (Arizona, United States). We modeled present species-environmental relationships and projected changes to suitable environment under 12 future climate scenarios per species, including the most and least optimistic greenhouse gas emission pathways, through 2100. We found that Thamnophis likely advanced northward since the turn of the 20th century and overwinter temperature and seasonal precipitation best explained present distributions. Future ranges of suitable environment for Thamnophis are projected to decrease by ca. -37.1% on average. We found that species already threatened with extinction or those with warm trailing-edge populations likely face the greatest loss of suitable environment, including near or complete loss of suitable environment. Future climate scenarios suggest an upward advance of suitable environment around montane areas for some low to mid-elevation species, which may create pressures to ascend. The most suitable environmental areas projected here can be used to identify potential safe zones to prioritize conservation refuges, including applicable critical habitat designations. By bounding the climate pathway extremes to, we reduce SDM uncertainties and provide valuable information to help conservation practitioners mitigate climate-induced threats to species. Implementing informed conservation actions is paramount for sustaining biodiversity in important aridland riparian systems as the climate warms and dries.

Climate change-associated declines in water clarity impair feeding by common loons

Climate change has myriad impacts on ecosystems, but the mechanisms by which it affects individual species can be difficult to pinpoint. One strategy to discover such mechanisms is to identify a specific ecological factor related to survival or reproduction and determine how that factor is affected by climate. Here we used Landsat imagery to calculate water clarity for 127 lakes in northern Wisconsin from 1995 to 2021 and thus investigate the effect of clarity on the body condition of an aquatic visual predator, the common loon (Gavia immer). In addition, we examined rainfall and temperature as potential predictors of water clarity. Body mass tracked July water clarity strongly in loon chicks, which grow chiefly in that month, but weakly in adult males and females. Long-term mean water clarity was negatively related to chick mass but positively related to adult male mass, suggesting that loons foraging in generally clear lakes enjoy good foraging conditions in the long run but might be sensitive to perturbations in clarity during chick-rearing. Finally, chick mass was positively related to the density of docks, perhaps because angling removes large fishes and thus boosts the abundance of the small fishes on which chicks depend. Water clarity itself declined strongly from 1995 to 2021, was negatively related to July rainfall, and was positively related to July air temperature. Our findings identified both long-term and short-term water clarity as strong predictors of loon foraging efficiency, and suggest that climate change, through water clarity, impacts freshwater ecosystems profoundly. Moreover, our results identified the recent decrease in water clarity as a likely cause of population decline in common loons.

Automatedly identify dryland threatened species at large scale by using deep learning

Dryland biodiversity is decreasing at an alarming rate. Advanced intelligent tools are urgently needed to rapidly, automatedly, and precisely detect dryland threatened species on a large scale for biological conservation. Here, we explored the performance of three deep convolutional neural networks (Deeplabv3+, Unet, and Pspnet models) on the intelligent recognition of rare species based on high-resolution (0.3 m) satellite images taken by an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). We focused on a threatened species, Populus euphratica, in the Tarim River Basin (China), where there has been a severe population decline in the 1970s and restoration has been carried out since 2000. The testing results showed that Unet outperforms Deeplabv3+ and Pspnet when the training samples are lower, while Deeplabv3+ performs best as the dataset increases. Overall, when training samples are 80, Deeplabv3+ had the best overall performance for Populus euphratica identification, with mean pixel accuracy (MPA) between 87.31 % and 90.2 %, which, on average is 3.74 % and 11.29 % higher than Unet and Pspnet, respectively. Deeplabv3+ can accurately detect the boundaries of Populus euphratica even in areas of dense vegetation, with lower identification uncertainty for each pixel than other models. This study developed a UAV imagery-based identification framework using deep learning with high resolution in large-scale regions. This approach can accurately capture the variation in dryland threatened species, especially those in inaccessible areas, thereby fostering rapid and efficient conservation actions.

Demographic history and genomic signatures of selection in a widespread vertebrate ectotherm

Environmental conditions vary greatly across large geographic ranges, and yet certain species inhabit entire continents. In such species, genomic sequencing can inform our understanding of colonization history and the impact of selection on the genome as populations experience diverse local environments. As ectothermic vertebrates are among the most vulnerable to environmental change, it is critical to understand the contributions of local adaptation to population survival. Widespread ectotherms offer an opportunity to explore how species can successfully inhabit such differing environments and how future climatic shifts will impact species' survival. In this study, we investigated the widespread painted turtle (Chrysemys picta) to assess population genomic structure, demographic history, and genomic signatures of selection in the western extent of the range. We found support for a substantial role of serial founder effects in shaping population genomic structure: demographic analysis and runs of homozygosity were consistent with bottlenecks of increasing severity from eastern to western populations during and following the Last Glacial Maximum, and edge populations were more strongly diverged and had less genetic diversity than those from the centre of the range. We also detected outlier loci, but allelic patterns in many loci could be explained by either genetic surfing or selection. While range expansion complicates the identification of loci under selection, we provide candidates for future study of local adaptation in a long-lived, widespread ectotherm that faces an uncertain future as the global climate continues to rapidly change.

Climate warming has divergent physiological impacts on sympatric lizards

Climate warming is expected to affect the vulnerability of sympatric species differentially due to their divergent traits, but the underlying physiological mechanisms of those impacts are poorly understood. We conducted field warming experiments (present climate vs. warm climate) using open-top chambers to determine the effects of climate warming on active body temperature, oxidative damage, immune competence, growth and survival in two sympatric desert-dwelling lizards, Eremias multiocellata and Eremias argus from May 2019 to September 2020. Our climate warming treatment did not affect survival of the two species, but it did increase active body temperatures and growth rate in E. multiocellata compared to E. argus. Climate warming also induced greater oxidative damage (higher malondialdehyde content and catalase activity) in E. multiocellata, but not in E. argus. Further, climate warming increased immune competence in E. multiocellata, but decreased immune competence in E. argus, with regards to white blood cell counts, bacteria killing ability and relative expression of immunoglobulin M. Our results suggest that climate warming enhances body temperature, and thereby oxidative stress, immune competence and growth in E. multiocellata, but decreases immune competence of E. argus, perhaps as a cost of thermoregulation to maintain body temperatures under climate warming. The divergent physiological effects of climate warming on sympatric species may have profound ecological consequences if it eventually leads to changes in reproductive activities, population dynamics and community structure. Our study highlights the importance of considering interspecific differences in physiological traits when we evaluate the impact of climate warming on organisms, even for those closely-related species coexisting within the same geographical area.

Two Growing-Season Warming Partly Promoted Growth but Decreased Reproduction and Ornamental Value of Impatiens oxyanthera

Climate warming profoundly affects the vegetative growth, flowering phenology and sexual reproduction of plants; therefore, it affects the ornamental value of wild flowers. Despite this, the extent and mechanism of the impact remain unclear. Here, we conducted a warming experiment for two growing seasons (increases of 1.89 °C in 2017 and 2.37 °C in 2018) with infrared heaters to examine the effects of warming on the ornamental value of the wild flower Impatiens oxyanthera, endemic to China, in Mount Emei. We evaluated the comprehensive ornamental value based on plant morphology and flowering characteristics using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and disentangled the impact of the two traits on ornamental value using principal component analysis (PCA) and the partial least squares structural equation model (PLS-SEM) under ambient and warming treatments. We hypothesized that warming would reduce the ornamental value of I. oxyanthera in terms of plant morphology and flowering traits. Our results showed that warming significantly decreased plant height and crown width and increased branch number and single-leaf area. Warming also decreased vexillum length, corolla tube length, nectar spur length and pedicel length. In addition, warming shortened flowering duration per plant and reduced flower number, while there was no significant effect on flower longevity and flower color at full-bloom stage between the control and warming treatment. Therefore, the comprehensive ornamental value under warming was lower than that under the control. Pedicel length, flower color, flower longevity and flowering duration per plant were the main factors affecting the comprehensive ornamental value. The PLS-SEM showed that warming had an indirect negative effect on ornamental value via direct negative effects on flowering traits. Collectively, these results indicate that, although promoting vegetative growth, short-term warming significantly decreased the ornamental value of I. oxyanthera due to warming-caused smaller flowers and shorter flowering duration.

A species' response to spatial climatic variation does not predict its response to climate change

The dominant paradigm for assessing ecological responses to climate change assumes that future states of individuals and populations can be predicted by current, species-wide performance variation across spatial climatic gradients. However, if the fates of ecological systems are better predicted by past responses to in situ climatic variation through time, this current analytical paradigm may be severely misleading. Empirically testing whether spatial or temporal climate responses better predict how species respond to climate change has been elusive, largely due to restrictive data requirements. Here, we leverage a newly collected network of ponderosa pine tree-ring time series to test whether statistically inferred responses to spatial versus temporal climatic variation better predict how trees have responded to recent climate change. When compared to observed tree growth responses to climate change since 1980, predictions derived from spatial climatic variation were wrong in both magnitude and direction. This was not the case for predictions derived from climatic variation through time, which were able to replicate observed responses well. Future climate scenarios through the end of the 21st century exacerbated these disparities. These results suggest that the currently dominant paradigm of forecasting the ecological impacts of climate change based on spatial climatic variation may be severely misleading over decadal to centennial timescales.

Using warming tolerances to predict understory plant responses to climate change

Climate change is pushing species towards and potentially beyond their critical thermal limits. The extent to which species can cope with temperatures exceeding their critical thermal limits is still uncertain. To better assess species' responses to warming, we compute the warming tolerance (ΔTniche ) as a thermal vulnerability index, using species' upper thermal limits (the temperature at the warm limit of their distribution range) minus the local habitat temperature actually experienced at a given location. This metric is useful to predict how much more warming species can tolerate before negative impacts are expected to occur. Here we set up a cross-continental transplant experiment involving five regions distributed along a latitudinal gradient across Europe (43° N-61° N). Transplant sites were located in dense and open forests stands, and at forest edges and in interiors. We estimated the warming tolerance for 12 understory plant species common in European temperate forests. During 3 years, we examined the effects of the warming tolerance of each species across all transplanted locations on local plant performance, in terms of survival, height, ground cover, flowering probabilities and flower number. We found that the warming tolerance (ΔTniche ) of the 12 studied understory species was significantly different across Europe and varied by up to 8°C. In general, ΔTniche were smaller (less positive) towards the forest edge and in open stands. Plant performance (growth and reproduction) increased with increasing ΔTniche across all 12 species. Our study demonstrated that ΔTniche of understory plant species varied with macroclimatic differences among regions across Europe, as well as in response to forest microclimates, albeit to a lesser extent. Our findings support the hypothesis that plant performance across species decreases in terms of growth and reproduction as local temperature conditions reach or exceed the warm limit of the focal species.

Evolution of sea-surfing plant propagule as revealed by the genomes of Heritiera mangroves

Coastal forests, such as mangroves, protect much of the tropical and subtropical coasts. Long-distance dispersal via sea-surfing propagules is essential for coastal plants, but the genomic and molecular basis of sea-surfing plant propagule evolution remains unclear. Heritiera fomes and Heritiera littoralis are two coastal plants with typical buoyant fruits. We de novo sequenced and assembled their high-quality genomes. Our phylogenomic analysis indicates H. littoralis and H. fomes originated (at ~6.08 Mya) just before the start of Quaternary sea-level fluctuations. Whole-genome duplication occurred earlier, permitting gene copy gains in the two species. Many of the expanded gene families are involved in lignin and flavonoid biosynthesis, likely contributing to buoyant fruit emergence. It is repeatedly revealed that one duplicated copy to be under positive selection while the other is not. By examining H. littoralis fruits at three different developmental stages, we found that gene expression levels remain stable from young to intermediate. However, ~1000 genes are up-regulated and ~ 3000 genes are down-regulated as moving to mature. Particularly in fruit epicarps, the upregulation of WRKY12 and E2Fc likely constrains the production of p-Coumaroyl-CoA, the key internal substrate for lignin biosynthesis. Hence, to increase fruit impermeability, methylated lignin biosynthesis is shut down by down-regulating the genes CCoAOMT, F5H, COMT, and CSE, while unmethylated lignins are preferentially produced by upregulating CAD and CCR. Similarly, cutin polymers and cuticular waxes accumulate with high levels before maturation in epicarps. Overall, our genome assemblies and analyses uncovered the genomic evolution and temporal transcriptional regulation of sea-surfing propagule.

Decline of Tephroseris helenitis in Hessia (Germany) over the last 120 years: Modeling implies the gradual disappearance of its temperature niche for flower induction and germination

Tephroseris helenitis is a perennial herb that experienced a severe decline of species records over the last 120 years in the state of Hessia, Germany. Here, the species is found in humid habitats with moderate temperatures. In this modeling study, we assessed changes in climatic conditions between the periods 1900-1949, 1950-1979, 1980-1999 and 2000-2020 and explored whether these changes can explain the decline of records of T. helenitis. Climatic variables used were monthly precipitation sums, monthly mean, minimum and maximum temperatures, monthly temperature ranges as well as annual precipitation sum and annual mean temperature. For the majority of these variables, changes were significant across periods. Minimum temperatures in March, April and July (Tmin_Mar, Tmin_Apr, Tmin_Jul) best explained species presences and absences in 1900-1949 and 1950-1979. The species shifted its realized niche towards lower Tmin_Mar and narrowed its niche on Tmin_Apr and Tmin_Jul between these two periods. March, April and July are crucial in the life cycle of T. helenitis. Tmin_Mar and Tmin_Apr are related to the induction of flowering through a period of low temperatures (vernalization), and Tmin_Jul is related to seed germination. Documented increasing March and April temperatures as well as autumn and winter temperatures in the past 120 years may imply that vernalization became increasingly unsuccessful for the species and increasing July temperatures may have decreased its germination success. Given the disappearance of its temperature niche (Tmin_Mar, Tmin_Apr, Tmin_Jul) due to ongoing global warming not only in Hessia and Germany, we anticipate that T. helenitis will go extinct in Europe.

High-Durable, Radiative-Cooling, and Heat-Insulating Flexible Films Enabled by a Bioinspired Dictyophora-Like Structure

Radiative cooling, achieved by selectively emitting thermal radiation to outer space, holds great promise for addressing global energy challenges and mitigating the effects of climate change. However, most radiative cooling materials face limitations in effectively cooling in high-heat environments, and their performance deteriorates significantly with prolonged outdoor use. These shortcomings restrict their widespread application in various settings. To address this, we draw inspiration from the unique biostructure of dictyophora and propose a novel hollow@porous radiative cooling film by integrating hollow microparticles and porous polymer. The fabricated hollow@porous flexible film exhibits high sunlight reflection (93.7%), strong infrared emissivity (89.1%), as well as ultralow thermal conductivity (17.56 mW/m k). The daytime cooling performance of the prepared cooler is experimentally demonstrated with a marked temperature decrease to 17.4 °C under a peak solar intensity of 980 W/m2. Furthermore, the unique hollow@porous structure also strengthens the film's long-term durability by incorporating weather resistance and self-cleaning properties, which ensures stable and efficient radiative cooling performance even in harsh climatic conditions. This advancement in radiative cooling materials opens up new possibilities for thermal management, energy conservation, and cooling of solar panels, engine components, electronic equipment, new energy batteries, etc.

The buzz around biodiversity decline: Detecting pollinator shifts using a systematic review

Climate and land use change are two of the largest drivers of worldwide biodiversity loss, but detecting drivers of insect decline is more complex. Online data sources can elucidate such responses while identifying systematic data gaps. Using a systematic review, we found 119 studies that document bumble bee and butterfly responses to climate change. While bee literature was limited, there is high confidence that species are emerging earlier (∼17 days), mismatching with floral resources (100% of studies), and changing range distributions (-25%). More butterfly literature was available but did not yield consistent responses. Evidence shows earlier emergences (∼5 days), decreasing range distributions (-19%), and population shifts amongst generalist (87% increase) versus specialist (65% decrease) groups. We argue that the effect of changing climates on floral emergence, abundance, and distribution may be more significant than the impact of climate change on biodiversity; however, further research is required, particularly within the Southern Hemisphere.

Simulation and prediction of the geographical distribution of five Caragana species in the north temperate zone

The shrub encroachment caused by Caragana species (mainly C. microphylla, C. korshinskii, C. tibetica, C. stenophylla, and C. pygmaea) in the north temperate zone has significant impacts on ecosystems. Understanding the distribution of Caragana species' responses to climate change is increasingly relevant to the dynamic of shrub encroachment. In this study, we gathered 1124 geographical distribution records for 5 Caragana species. Through principal component analysis and Pearson correlation analysis, 11 environmental variables were identified. We employed the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and utilized the current and future climate dataset from 2041 to 2060 based on two extreme climate scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) and atmospheric circulation models (BCC_CSM1.1 and IPSLCM5A-LR) to assess the potential distribution patterns and dynamic change with global warming. The results showed the following: (1) Currently, the five Caragana species are mainly distributed in the central and western parts of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Mongolia, and the southern parts of Russia. (2) In the future, the habitable zone of C. microphylla and C. korshinskii will expand gradually, while the distribution probability of C. stenophylla, C. tibetica, and C. pygmaea will shrink significantly in 60-80% of the area, and the habitable area will fluctuate sharply. (3) The range of the five species of Caragana expansion area is projected to be 1229.43×106 km2-1412.32×106 km2, with the suitable habitats expected to extend northward in the future, primarily concentrated in central Mongolia and around Lake Baikal in Russia. This research provides guidance for protecting grassland resources and ensuring sustainable development under shrub encroachment.

Clinal variation in the temperature and photoperiodic control of reproductive diapause in Drosophila montana females

Insect adaptation to climatic conditions at different latitudes has required changes in life-history traits linked with survival and reproduction. Several species, including Drosophila montana, show robust latitudinal variation in the critical day length (CDL), below which more than half of the emerging females enter reproductive diapause at a given temperature. Here we used a novel approach to find out whether D. montana also shows latitudinal variation in the critical temperature (CTemp), above which the photoperiodic regulation of diapause is disturbed so that the females develop ovaries in daylengths that are far below their CDL. We estimated CTemp for 53 strains from different latitudes on 3 continents after measuring their diapause proportions at a range of temperatures in 12 h daylength (for 29 of the strains also in continuous darkness). In 12 h daylength, CTemp increased towards high latitudes alongside an increase in CDL, and in 3 high-latitude strains diapause proportion exceeded 50% in all temperatures. In continuous darkness, the diapause proportion was above 50% in the lowest temperature(s) in only 9 strains, all of which came from high latitudes. In the second part of the study, we measured changes in CTemp and CDL in a selection experiment favouring reproduction in short daylength (photoperiodic selection) and by exercising selection for females that reproduce in LD12:12 at low temperature (photoperiodic and temperature selection). In both experiments selection induced parallel changes in CDL and CTemp, confirming correlations seen between these traits along latitudinal clines. Overall, our findings suggest that selection towards strong photoperiodic diapause and long CDL at high latitudes has decreased the dependency of D. montana diapause on environmental temperature. Accordingly, the prevalence and timing of the diapause of D. montana is likely to be less vulnerable to climate warming in high- than low-latitude populations.

Recolonization following past persecution questions the importance of persistent snow cover as a range limiting factor for wolverines

Globally, climate is changing rapidly, which causes shifts in many species' distributions, stressing the need to understand their response to changing environmental conditions to inform conservation and management. Northern latitudes are expected to experience strongest changes in climate, with milder winters and decreasing snow cover. The wolverine (Gulo gulo) is a circumpolar, threatened carnivore distributed in northern tundra, boreal, and subboreal habitats. Previous studies have suggested that wolverine distribution and reproduction are constrained by a strong association with persistent spring snow cover. We assess this hypothesis by relating spatial distribution of 1589 reproductive events, a fitness-related proxy for female reproduction and survival, to snow cover over two decades. Wolverine distribution has increased and number of reproductive events increased 20 times in areas lacking spring snow cover during our study period, despite low monitoring effort where snow is sparse. Thus, the relationship between reproductive events and persistent spring snow cover weakened during this period. These findings show that wolverine reproductive success and hence distribution are less dependent on spring snow cover than expected. This has important implications for projections of future habitat availability, and thus distribution, of this threatened species. Our study also illustrates how past persecution, or other factors, that have restricted species distribution to remote areas can mask actual effects of environmental parameters, whose importance reveals when populations expand beyond previously restricted ranges. Overwhelming evidence shows that climate change is affecting many species and ecological processes, but forecasting potential consequences on a given species requires longitudinal data to revisit hypotheses and reassess the direction and magnitude of climate effects with new data. This is especially important for conservation-oriented management of species inhabiting dynamic systems where environmental factors and human activities interact, a common scenario for many species in different ecosystems around the globe.

Beat the heat: thermal respites and access to food associated with increased bumble bee heat tolerance

Climate change poses a threat to organisms across the world, with cold-adapted species such as bumble bees (Bombus spp.) at particularly high risk. Understanding how organisms respond to extreme heat events associated with climate change as well as the factors that increase resilience or prime organisms for future stress can inform conservation actions. We investigated the effects of heat stress within different contexts (duration, periodicity, with and without access to food, and in the laboratory versus field) on bumble bee (Bombus impatiens) survival and heat tolerance. We found that both prolonged (5 h) heat stress and nutrition limitation were negatively correlated with worker bee survival and thermal tolerance. However, the effects of these acute stressors were not long lasting (no difference in thermal tolerance among treatment groups after 24 h). Additionally, intermittent heat stress, which more closely simulates the forager behavior of leaving and returning to the nest, was not negatively correlated with worker thermal tolerance. Thus, short respites may allow foragers to recover from thermal stress. Moreover, these results suggest there is no priming effect resulting from short- or long-duration exposure to heat - bees remained equally sensitive to heat in subsequent exposures. In field-caught bumble bees, foragers collected during warmer versus cooler conditions exhibited similar thermal tolerance after being allowed to recover in the lab for 16 h. These studies offer insight into the impacts of a key bumble bee stressor and highlight the importance of recovery duration, stressor periodicity and context on bumble bee thermal tolerance outcomes.

An ethylene-induced NAC transcription factor acts as a multiple abiotic stress responsor in conifer

The proper response to various abiotic stresses is essential for plants' survival to overcome their sessile nature, especially for perennial trees with very long-life cycles. However, in conifers, the molecular mechanisms that coordinate multiple abiotic stress responses remain elusive. Here, the transcriptome response to various abiotic stresses like salt, cold, drought, heat shock and osmotic were systematically detected in Pinus tabuliformis (P. tabuliformis) seedlings. We found that four transcription factors were commonly induced by all tested stress treatments, while PtNAC3 and PtZFP30 were highly up-regulated and co-expressed. Unexpectedly, the exogenous hormone treatment assays and the content of the endogenous hormone indicates that the upregulation of PtNAC3 and PtZFP30 are mediated by ethylene. Time-course assay showed that the treatment by ethylene immediate precursor, 1-aminocyclopropane-1-carboxylic acid (ACC), activated the expression of PtNAC3 and PtZFP30 within 8 hours. We further confirm that the PtNAC3 can directly bind to the PtZFP30 promoter region and form a cascade. Overexpression of PtNAC3 enhanced unified abiotic stress tolerance without growth penalty in transgenic Arabidopsis and promoted reproductive success under abiotic stress by shortening the lifespan, suggesting it has great potential as a biological tool applied to plant breeding for abiotic stress tolerance. This study provides novel insights into the hub nodes of the abiotic stresses response network as well as the environmental adaptation mechanism in conifers, and provides a potential biofortification tool to enhance plant unified abiotic stress tolerance.

Older forests function as energetic and demographic refugia for a climate-sensitive species

More frequent and extreme heat waves threaten climate-sensitive species. Structurally complex, older forests can buffer these effects by creating cool microclimates, although the mechanisms by which forest refugia mitigate physiological responses to heat exposure and subsequent population-level consequences remain relatively unexplored. We leveraged fine-scale movement data, doubly labeled water, and two decades of demographic data for the California spotted owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis) to (1) assess the role of older forest characteristics as potential energetic buffers for individuals and (2) examine the subsequent value of older forests as refugia for a core population in the Sierra Nevada and a periphery population in the San Bernardino Mountains. Individuals spent less energy moving during warmer sampling periods and the presence of tall canopies facilitated energetic conservation during daytime roosting activities. In the core population, where tall-canopied forest was prevalent, temperature anomalies did not affect territory occupancy dynamics as warmer sites were both less likely to go extinct and less likely to become colonized, suggesting a trade-off between foraging opportunities and temperature exposure. In the peripheral population, sites were more likely to become unoccupied following warm summers, presumably because of less prevalent older forest conditions. While individuals avoided elevated energetic expenditure associated with temperature exposure, behavioral strategies to conserve energy may have diverted time and energy from reproduction or territory defense. Conserving older forests, which are threatened due to fire and drought, may benefit individuals from energetic consequences of exposure to stressful thermal conditions.

Differences in the Suitable Distribution Area between Northern and Southern China Landscape Plants

Climate change, a global biodiversity threat, largely influences the geographical distribution patterns of species. China is abundant in woody landscape plants. However, studies on the differences in the adaptive changes of plants under climate change between northern and southern China are unavailable. Therefore, herein, the MaxEnt model was used to predict changes in the suitable distribution area (SDA) and dominant environmental variables of 29 tree species under two climate change scenarios, the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) 126 and 585, based on 29 woody plant species and 20 environmental variables in northern and southern China to assess the differences in the adaptive changes of plants between the two under climate change. Temperature factors dominated the SDA distribution of both northern and southern plants. Southern plants are often dominated by one climatic factor, whereas northern plants are influenced by a combination of climatic factors. Northern plants are under greater pressure from SDA change than southern plants, and their SDA shrinkage tendency is significantly higher. However, no significant difference was observed between northern and southern plants in SDA expansion, mean SDA elevation, and latitudinal change in the SDA mass center. Future climate change will drive northern and southern plants to migrate to higher latitudes rather than to higher elevations. Therefore, future climate change has varying effects on plant SDAs within China. The climate change intensity will drive northern landscape plants to experience greater SDA-change-related pressure than southern landscape plants. Therefore, northern landscape plants must be heavily monitored and protected.

Spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factors of synergizing the reduction of pollution and carbon emissions - Utilizing multi-source remote sensing data and GTWR model

Grasping current circumstances and influencing components of the synergistic degree regarding reducing pollution and carbon has been recognized as a crucial part of China in response to the protection of the environment and climate mitigation. With the introduction of remote sensing night-time light, CO₂ emissions at multi-scale have been estimated in this study. Accordingly, an upward trend of "CO₂-PM_2.5" synergistic reduction was discovered, which was indicated by an increase of 78.18% regarding the index constructed of 358 cities in China from 2014 to 2020. Additionally, it has been confirmed that the reduction in pollution and carbon emissions could coordinate with economic growth indirectly. Lastly, it has identified the spatial discrepancy of influencing factors and the results have emphasized the rebound effect of technological progress and industrial upgrades, whilst the development of clean energy can offset the increase in energy consumption thus contributing to the synergy of pollution and carbon reduction. Moreover, it has been highlighted that environmental background, industrial structure, and socio-economic characteristics of different cities should be considered comprehensively in order to better achieve the goals of "Beautiful China" and "Carbon Neutrality".

Humidity stress and its consequences for male pre- and post-copulatory fitness traits in an insect

Global declines in insect abundance are of significant concern. While there is evidence that climate change is contributing to insect declines, we know little of the direct mechanisms responsible for these declines. Male fertility is compromised by increasing temperatures, and the thermal limit to fertility has been implicated as an important factor in the response of insects to climate change. However, climate change is affecting both temperature and hydric conditions, and the effects of water availability on male fertility have rarely been considered. Here we exposed male crickets Teleogryllus oceanicus to either low or high-humidity environments while holding temperature constant. We measured water loss and the expression of both pre- and postmating reproductive traits. Males exposed to a low-humidity environment lost more water than males exposed to a high-humidity environment. A male's cuticular hydrocarbon profile (CHC) did not affect the amount of water lost, and males did not adjust the composition of their CHC profiles in response to hydric conditions. Males exposed to a low-humidity environment were less likely to produce courtship song or produced songs of low quality. Their spermatophores failed to evacuate and their ejaculates contained sperm of reduced viability. The detrimental effects of low-humidity on male reproductive traits will compromise male fertility and population persistence. We argue that limits to insect fertility based on temperature alone are likely to underestimate the true effects of climate change on insect persistence and that the explicit incorporation of water regulation into our modeling will yield more accurate predictions of the effects of climate change on insect declines.

Limnological factors that affect waterbird assemblages in semi-arid reservoirs of Tigray National Regional State, northern Ethiopia

Published accounts of the conservation of biodiversity indicate that understanding patterns of species distribution and richness is crucial. However, what drives patterns of species composition in a landscape remains debatable. I examined the relationship between limnological characteristics of reservoirs, morpho-edaphic variables, biological variables, and patterns of bird species richness and distribution. Six limnological, three morpho-edaphic variables, and biological variables were recorded for 35 reservoirs and analyzed by multivariate statistical techniques. To investigate the most important explanatory factors influencing avian species richness and their distribution, redundancy analysis (RDA) was used. A total of 85 bird species from 54 genera, with a mean species richness 14.23 ± 6.72 (mean ± standard deviation) per reservoir, were recorded. The RDA analysis identified two significant RDA axes, and 34.4% of the variation in species richness is explained by environmental variation (R²_adj = 0.34375; P < 0.001). Bird species richness was positively correlated with the surface area of reservoirs. I showed here that reservoir size and environmental heterogeneity were the important features that affect bird species richness, thus providing an important insight into the ecological relationship between waterbird species richness and the limnological characteristics of reservoirs. The strong positive correlation between species richness and both size and environmental variables underscores the importance of these reservoir features in the management of wildlife conservation. Large, environmentally heterogeneous reservoirs can support more species than small, environmentally homogeneous reservoirs because large, environmentally heterogeneous limnetic ecosystems can provide different resources for nesting, foraging, and roosting habitats for a diversified bird species. The result here also plays a role towards strengthening our knowledge of aquatic bird ecology and the natural history of African-Eurasian Migratory waterbirds.

Phenotypic variation in the molt characteristics of a seasonal coat color-changing species reveals limited resilience to climate change

The snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus) possesses a broad suite of adaptations to winter, including a seasonal coat color molt. Recently, climate change has been implicated in the range contraction of snowshoe hares along the southern range boundary. With shortening snow season duration, snowshoe hares are experiencing increased camouflage mismatch with their environment reducing survival. Phenological variation of hare molt at regional scales could facilitate local adaptation in the face of climate change, but the level of variation, especially along the southern range boundary, is unknown. Using a network of trail cameras and historical museum specimens, we (1) developed contemporary and historical molt phenology curves in the Upper Great Lakes region, USA, (2) calculated molt rate and variability in and among populations, and (3) quantified the relationship of molt characteristics to environmental conditions for snowshoe hares across North America. We found that snowshoe hares across the region exhibited similar fall and spring molt phenologies, rates and variation. Yet, an insular island population of hares on Isle Royale National Park, MI, completed their molt a week earlier in the fall and initiated molt almost 2 weeks later in the spring as well as exhibited slower rates of molting in the fall season compared to the mainland. Over the last 100 years, snowshoe hares across the region have not shifted in fall molt timing; though contemporary spring molt appears to have advanced by 17 days (~ 4 days per decade) compared to historical molt phenology. Our research indicates that some variation in molt phenology exists for snowshoe hares in the Upper Great Lakes region, but whether this variation is enough to offset the consequences of climate change remains to be seen.

Disentangling the impacts of climate and land cover changes on habitat suitability of common pheasant Phasianus colchicus along elevational gradients in Iran

Climate and land cover change are critical drivers of avian species range shift. Thus, predicting avian species' response to the land and climate changes and identifying their future suitable habitats can help their conservation planning. The common pheasant (Phasianus colchicus) is a species of conservation concern in Iran and is included in the list of Iran's protected avian species. The species faces multiple threats such as habitat destruction, land cover change, and overhunting in the country. In this study, we model the potential impacts of future climate and land cover change on the habitat suitability of common pheasant (Phasianus colchicus) along elevational gradients in Mazandaran province in Iran. We used shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) scenarios and the 2015-2020 trend to generate possible future land cover projections for 2050. As for climate change projections, we used representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. Next, we applied current and future climate and land cover projections to investigate how habitat suitability of common pheasant will change between 2020 and 2050 using species distribution modeling (SDM). Our results show that the species has 6000 km² suitable habitat; however, between 900 and 1965 km² of its habitat may be reduced by 2050. Furthermore, we found that the severity of the effects of climate and land cover change varies at different altitudes. At low altitudes, the impact of changing land structure is superior. Instead, climate change has a critical role in habitat loss at higher altitudes and imposes a limiting role on the potential range shifts. Overall, this study demonstrates the vital role of land cover and climate change in better understanding the potential alterations in avian distribution.

Phylogeography within the Peromyscus maniculatus species group: Understanding past distribution of genetic diversity and areas of refugia in western North America

The effects of anthropogenic climate change on biodiversity have been recognized on every continent, ocean, and across different taxonomic groups. Here, we study the range dynamics and demography of a cosmopolitan species: the deer mouse, Peromyscus maniculatus. We generated a multilocus SNP dataset using the ddRADseq protocol for 218 individuals across the geographic range within three western North American lineages of this species group. We evaluated population structure using several methods and explored the correlation between geographic and genetic distances. We modeled the demographic history using a site frequency spectrum approach and used a machine learning algorithm to infer current and past (Last Glacial Maximum; LGM) environmental suitability. Lastly, we explored the origin of population expansion for the identified lineages. The genome-wide SNP dataset was able to identify-three regionally distinct groups- 1) P. m. gambelii (southern California); 2) P. keeni (Pacific Northwest); 3) P. m. sonoriensis (a broad population spanning the Pacific Northwest through central California and across the Rocky Mountains into the Great Plains). Demographic analysis indicated the splits between the three populations occurred within the last 500 thousand years, with one very recent (late Holocene) split. Ecological niche models for each of these lineages predicted suitable environment present throughout their known ranges for current conditions, and a severe reduction of northern habitat in the past. The deer mouse has responded to past climate changes by expanding its range during interglacial periods and contracting its range during glacial periods leading to strong population differentiation. But lower magnitude climate change or other processes within the Holocene interglacial period led to population differentiation as well, which is likely still ongoing today given the substantial anthropogenic climate change and other landscape transformations caused by humans during the Anthropocene. By understanding the historical processes that led to the contemporary geographic distribution of biodiversity, we can determine the relative importance of different factors that shape biodiversity, now and into the future.

Threatened species could be more vulnerable to climate change in tropical countries

Climate change is a major threat impacting insects globally, yet the impact on tropical insects is largely unknown. Here, I assessed the climatic vulnerability of Bangladeshi butterflies (242 species). About 42 % of species could experience range contraction, and the impact could be significantly more severe among threatened species. Depending on Socio-Economic Pathways (ssps), the future climatic condition could be unsuitable for 2 (ssp126) - 34 % (ssp585) species. The mean elevation of the suitable habitat could increase by 238 %, and the situation could be more severe for the threatened butterflies. Further, 54 % of the realised niche of butterflies could be altered. Although there might be no significant association between the shift in habitat suitability along the elevational gradient, migratory species could experience a more significant shift than non-migrants. Overall, climate change could have a severe impact on Bangladeshi butterflies. To mitigate insect decline globally and meet the Post 2020 Biodiversity Framework targets, immediate detection of climate change impact on tropical insects and developing effective conservation strategies is essential.

Environmental and topographic drivers of amphibian phylogenetic diversity and endemism in the Iberian Peninsula

Understanding the ecological and evolutionary processes driving biodiversity patterns and allowing their persistence is of utmost importance. Many hypotheses have been proposed to explain spatial diversity patterns, including water-energy availability, habitat heterogeneity, and historical climatic refugia. The main goal of this study is to identify if general spatial drivers of species diversity patterns of phylogenetic diversity (PD) and phylogenetic endemism (PE) at the global scale are also predictive of PD and PE at regional scales, using Iberian amphibians as a case study. Our main hypothesis assumes that topography along with contemporary and historical climate are drivers of phylogenetic diversity and endemism, but that the strength of these predictors may be weaker at the regional scale than it tends to be at the global scale. We mapped spatial patterns of Iberian amphibians' phylogenetic diversity and endemism, using previously published phylogenetic and distribution data. Furthermore, we compiled spatial data on topographic and climatic variables related to the water-energy availability, topography, and historical climatic instability hypotheses. To test our hypotheses, we used Spatial Autoregressive Models and selected the best model to explain diversity patterns based on Akaike Information Criterion. Our results show that, out of the variables tested in our study, water-energy availability and historical climate instability are the most important drivers of amphibian diversity in Iberia. However, as predicted, the strength of these predictors in our case study is weaker than it tends to be at global scales. Thus, additional drivers should also be investigated and we suggest caution when interpreting these predictors as surrogates for different components of diversity.

Bioclimatic Preferences of the Great Bustard in a Steppe Region

(1) The intercorrelated effects of climatic processes and anthropogenic land use changes have been shown to govern the population declines in several bird species, which have led to global extinctions. Ground-nesting birds are especially sensitive to modifications in spatial as well as temporal patterns of climatic change. The Great Bustard (Otis tarda) is one of the most endangered species, which has suffered considerable range contractions and population declines in extensive areas of its historical distribution. (2) Here, we aim to (i) identify the key climatic predictors governing the historical distribution of the Great Bustard within the Carpathian Basin during the past three decades, (ii) provide spatial predictions for the historical range of the study species, and (iii) identify areas where species-specific conservation planning initiatives need to focus on by predicting the distribution of the Great Bustard for future time periods. To do so, here we apply bioclimatic niche modeling implemented in the MaxEnt software package, which is fitted on historical occurrence locations as a function of potential bioclimatic predictors. (3) We show that (i) the most important bioclimatic predictors governing the distribution of the Great Bustard are the annual mean temperature, mean temperatures of the wettest and driest quarters, as well as the annual precipitation; (ii) all lowland areas of the Carpathian Basin were suitable for the Great Bustard during historical time periods; (iii) the SDM predictions show the historical suitability of the Muntenia and Dobrodgea regions and the Upper Thracian Plain; and (iv) the future projections show a substantial decrease in the core distribution area, whereas the boundary areas are expected to remain stable. In summary, our study emphasizes that the distribution modeling of endangered taxa using historical records can strongly support species-specific conservation planning initiatives.

Geographical Variation in Body Size and the Bergmann's Rule in Andrew's Toad (Bufo andrewsi)

Environmental variation likely modifies the life-history traits of vertebrates. As ectothermic vertebrates, it is possible that the body size of amphibians is impacted by environmental conditions. Here, we firstly quantified age and body size variation in the Andrew's toad (Bufo andrewsi) across the Hengduan Mountains. Then, we examined the environmental correlates of this variation based on the literature and our unpublished data on the age and body size of the Andrew's toad from 31 populations distributed in southwestern China. Although our analysis revealed significant variations in age and body size across B. andrewsi populations, neither latitude nor altitude correlated with this variability in age and body size. We found that age at sexual maturity, mean age, and longevity increased with decreasing annual mean temperature, whereas age at sexual maturity increased with decreasing temperature seasonality, implying that temperature was a crucial habitat characteristic that modulated age structure traits. Moreover, we revealed positive associations between age structure and UV-B seasonality, and negative relationships between both mean age and longevity and precipitation seasonality. We also found that body size increased with increasing precipitation in the driest month and UV-B seasonality. However, body size did not covary with temperature, signifying no support for Bergmann's rule. These findings help us to understand amphibians' abilities to adapt to environmental variation, which is particularly important in order to provide a theorical basis for their conservation.