The genesis and collapse of third millennium north mesopotamian civilization

The 4.2 ka event is not remarkable in the context of Holocene climate variability

The "4.2 ka event" is a commonly described abrupt climate excursion that occurred about 4200 years ago. However, the extent to which this event is coherent across regional and larger scales is unclear. To objectively assess climate excursions in the Holocene we compile 1142 paleoclimate datasets that span all continents and oceans and include a wide variety of archive and proxy types. We analyze these data to determine the timing, significance and spatial imprint of climate excursions using an objective method that quantifies local, regional and global significance. Site-level excursions in temperature and hydroclimate are common throughout the Holocene, but significant global-scale excursions are rare. The most prominent excursion occurred 8200 years ago, when cold and dry conditions formed a large, significant excursion centered in the North Atlantic. We find additional significant excursions between 1600 and 1000 years ago, which agree with tree-ring data and annual-scale paleoclimate reconstructions, adding confidence and context to our findings. In contrast, although some datasets show significant climate excursions 4200 years ago, they do not occur in large, coherent spatial regions. Consequently, like most other periods in the Holocene, the "4.2 ka event" is not a globally significant climate excursion.

A history of olive and grape cultivation in Southwest Asia using charcoal and seed remains

Evaluating archaeobotanical data from over 3.9 million seeds and 124,300 charcoal fragments across 330 archaeological site phases in Southwest Asia, we reconstruct the history of olive and grape cultivation spanning a period of 6,000 years. Combining charcoal and seed data enables investigation into both the production and consumption of olive and grape. The earliest indication for olive and grape cultivation appears in the southern Levant around ca. 5000 BC and 4th millennium BC respectively, although cultivation may have been practiced prior to these dates. Olive and grape cultivation in Southwest Asia was regionally concentrated within the Levant until 600 BC, although there were periodic pushes to the East. Several indications for climate influencing the history of olive and grape cultivation were found, as well as a correlation between periods of high population density and high proportions of olive and grape remains in archaeological sites. While temporal uncertainty prevents a detailed understanding of the causal mechanisms behind these correlations, we suggest that long distance trade in olives, grapes and their associated products was integral to the economic, social, and demographic trajectories of the region.

Temporal pattern of dental caries at the western flank of the Central Plateau of Iran, c. 2700 BCE - 1600 CE

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the overall frequency and inter-tooth patterns of caries in three populations from ancient cemeteries located along the western border of the Central Iranian Plateau as a means to explore whether the populations of Iran had greater access to fermentable sugars after the establishment of the great empires.

MATERIALS

Dental collections from Kafarved-Varzaneh (Early Bronze Age, MNI=66), Estark-Joshaqan (Iron Age, MNI=57), Tappeh Poustchi (Timurid and Safavid Period, MNI=34), together with comparative data from NE Syria.

METHODS

Frequencies of dental caries per tooth categories, location and size of carious lesions are analyzed using Smith's Mean Measure of Divergence, Correspondence Analysis, χ2 and Kruskal-Wallis tests.

RESULTS

There are minimal differences in overall frequencies of carious lesions at Iranian sites, regardless of the chronology, but notable differences at Syrian sites. The inter-tooth pattern at the Iron Age cemetery in Estark appears distinctly different than the other Iranian sites and the comparative samples from Syria.

CONCLUSIONS

Divergent subsistence strategies may be linked with different inter-tooth patterns since people buried at Estark were mobile herders, while the other cemeteries were used by settled farmers.

SIGNIFICANCE

This comprehensive research on dental caries in three chronologically diverse populations in Iran sheds light on the association between dental caries and subsistence strategies, and introduces the Smith's Mean Measure of Divergence to explore inter-tooth carious patterns, which may prove useful to other researchers seeking to understand the relationships between subsistence, diet, and the presence of carious lesions.

LIMITATIONS

The studied sample size is relatively small and therefore its temporal/regional distribution produces low-resolution results.

SUGGESTIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH

More systematic research on the patterns of dental caries is necessary to produce more fine-grained reconstructions of diet and subsistence in Iran and around the globe.

A Dynamic Network Model of Societal Complexity and Resilience Inspired by Tainter's Theory of Collapse

In recent years, several global events have severely disrupted economies and social structures, undermining confidence in the resilience of modern societies. Examples include the COVID-19 pandemic, which brought unprecedented health challenges and economic disruptions, and the emergence of geopolitical tensions and conflicts that have further strained international relations and economic stability. While empirical evidence on the dynamics and drivers of past societal collapse is mounting, a process-based understanding of these dynamics is still in its infancy. Here, we aim to identify and illustrate the underlying drivers of such societal instability or even collapse. The inspiration for this work is Joseph Tainter's theory of the "collapse of complex societies", which postulates that the complexity of societies increases as they solve problems, leading to diminishing returns on complexity investments and ultimately to collapse. In this work, we abstract this theory into a low-dimensional and stylized model of two classes of networked agents, hereafter referred to as "laborers" and "administrators". We numerically model the dynamics of societal complexity, measured as the fraction of "administrators", which was assumed to affect the productivity of connected energy-producing "laborers". We show that collapse becomes increasingly likely as the complexity of the model society continuously increases in response to external stresses that emulate Tainter's abstract notion of problems that societies must solve. We also provide an analytical approximation of the system's dominant dynamics, which matches well with the numerical experiments, and use it to study the influence on network link density, social mobility and productivity. Our work advances the understanding of social-ecological collapse and illustrates its potentially direct link to an ever-increasing societal complexity in response to external shocks or stresses via a self-reinforcing feedback.

Earliest systematic coal exploitation for fuel extended to ~3600 B.P

Coal has long fueled human civilizations. The history of systematic coal fuel exploitation has been traced back to the late third millennium before present (post-2500 B.P.). Although sporadic combustion of coal for fuel was reported in some prehistoric archaeological sites, evidence for the systematic exploitation of coal for fuel before 2500 B.P. remains lacking. Here, we report comprehensive understanding for the earliest systematic exploitation of coal for fuel at the Jirentaigoukou site in Xinjiang, northwestern China, at ~3600 B.P. The main body of the site witnessed systematic exploitation of bituminous coals, illustrating a complete chaîne opératoire with selective mining, planned storage, and extensive combustion. Our results transform the knowledge of energy history by extending the upper limit of the systematic exploitation of coal for fuel by approximately a millennium, and provide a precedent of energy transition under intense conflict between social demand and environmental deterioration.

Agricultural adaptations to mid-late Holocene climate change in western Türkiye

The period around the mid-late Holocene transition (c. 2200 BC) saw major societal developments across the eastern Mediterranean. At the same time, the region experienced a shift to more arid climatic conditions. This included punctuated episodes of rapid climate change such as the '4.2 ka event', which has been implicated in widespread societal 'collapse' at the end of the Early Bronze Age. The ways in which societies adapted agricultural production to cope with a drying climate are poorly understood. We begin to rectify this through stable isotope analysis of archaeobotanical remains from the Aegean region of western Türkiye, conducted to reveal changes in agricultural decision making across the mid-late Holocene transition. We find that Bronze Age farmers adapted agricultural production strategies by investing in drought-tolerant cereals cultivated on drier fields with water management strategies redirected towards pulses. Despite this, we find no evidence for pronounced drought stress in cereals grown during the period of the 4.2 ka event. This raises the potential for alternative explanations for societal disruptions visible across the Anatolian Plateau during this time, such as the breakdown of long-distance trade networks.

Environment, subsistence strategies and settlement seasonality in the Negev Highlands (Israel) during the Bronze and Iron Ages: The palynological evidence

The Negev Highlands arid region (southern Levant) shows evidence of sharp settlement fluctuations, with several periods of strong human activity separated by centuries with no evidence of sedentary life. In this study, we used the palynological method in order to shed light on the region's demographic history in the Bronze and Iron Ages. Fifty-four samples of pollen were collected and analyzed from secure archaeological contexts in four Negev Highlands sites: Nahal Boqer 66, dated to the Early Bronze Age and Early Intermediate Bronze Age (ca. 3200-2200 BCE); Ein Ziq, dated to the Early Intermediate Bronze Age (ca. 2500-2200 BCE); Mashabe Sade, dated to the Intermediate Bronze Age (ca. 2500-2000 BCE); and Haroa, dated to the Iron Age IIA (ca. late 10th through 9th centuries BCE). Our study revealed no evidence of cereal cultivation, with some hints that the inhabitants' diets may have included plants gathered from the wild. Only one of the sites, Nahal Boqer 66, showed micro-indicators of animal dung remains, suggesting that the inhabitants herded animals. The palynological evidence did, however, emphasize that the livestock there were not fed or supplemented with agricultural by-products but rather grazed freely on wild vegetation. The pollen data also suggest that all four sites were occupied only during late winter and spring. The activity in the Negev Highlands during the third millennium BCE was probably related to the copper industry in the Arabah and to copper transportation to settled neighboring lands, especially Egypt. A relatively humid climate supported the trade through the Negev Highlands. Deterioration in both climate conditions and settlement activity was documented in the second half of the Intermediate Bronze Age.

Why did doctrinal religions first appear in the Northern Subtropical Zone?

Doctrinal religions that involve recognised gods, more formal theologies, moral codes, dedicated religious spaces and professional priesthoods emerged in two phases during the Neolithic. Almost all of these appeared in a narrow latitudinal band (the northern Subtropical Zone). I suggest that these developments were the result of a need to facilitate community bonding in response to scalar stresses that developed as community sizes increased dramatically beyond those typical of hunter-gatherer societies. Conditions for population growth (as indexed by rainfall patterns and the difference between pathogen load and the length of the growing season) were uniquely optimised in this zone, creating an environment of ecological release in which populations could grow unusually rapidly. The relationship between latitude, religion and language in contemporary societies suggests that the peculiar characteristics of the northern (but not the southern) Subtropical Zone were especially favourable for the evolution of large scale religions as a way of enforcing community cohesion.

Ancient DNA reveals admixture history and endogamy in the prehistoric Aegean

The Neolithic and Bronze Ages were highly transformative periods for the genetic history of Europe but for the Aegean-a region fundamental to Europe's prehistory-the biological dimensions of cultural transitions have been elucidated only to a limited extent so far. We have analysed newly generated genome-wide data from 102 ancient individuals from Crete, the Greek mainland and the Aegean Islands, spanning from the Neolithic to the Iron Age. We found that the early farmers from Crete shared the same ancestry as other contemporaneous Neolithic Aegeans. In contrast, the end of the Neolithic period and the following Early Bronze Age were marked by 'eastern' gene flow, which was predominantly of Anatolian origin in Crete. Confirming previous findings for additional Central/Eastern European ancestry in the Greek mainland by the Middle Bronze Age, we additionally show that such genetic signatures appeared in Crete gradually from the seventeenth to twelfth centuries BC, a period when the influence of the mainland over the island intensified. Biological and cultural connectedness within the Aegean is also supported by the finding of consanguineous endogamy practiced at high frequencies, unprecedented in the global ancient DNA record. Our results highlight the potential of archaeogenomic approaches in the Aegean for unravelling the interplay of genetic admixture, marital and other cultural practices.

Middle to late Holocene plant cover variation in relation to climate, fire, and human activity in the Songnen grasslands of northeastern China

INTRODUCTION

For future vegetation projections and conservation planning in grassland ecosystems, accurate estimates of past plant cover changes in grassland composition and their responses to the various driving factors are essential. This study quantitatively reconstructs the past regional plant cover in the Songnen grasslands (northeastern China) and explores the relative importance of climate, fire, and human activity on vegetation dynamics.

METHODS

For this purpose, the Regional Estimates of Vegetation Abundance from Large Sites (REVEALS) model is applied to three pollen records from two areas, two in the center of the Songnen grasslands and one located in an area marginal to the grasslands.

RESULTS

Results from the most reliable REVEALS scenarios show that from the mid-Holocene, steppe (mean cover 40.6%) and dry steppe (mean cover 54.2%) alternately dominated the central part of the Songnen grasslands while the marginal grasslands were mainly characterized by alternating broadleaved forests (mean cover 26.3%), coniferous forests (mean cover 41.9%) and dry steppes (mean cover 30.1%).

DISCUSSION

By comparing the plant cover results with previous published regional climate, fire and human activity records, the results show that long term vegetation dynamics were mainly driven by East Asia Summer Monsoon (EASM) and the related precipitation variations, but was also affected by fire frequency and human activity. Moreover, vegetation evolution was sensitive to abrupt cooling events including the 4.2 ka BP and stacked ice-rafted debris (IRD) events; the change from steppe to dry steppe, for example, was driven by these abrupt climate changes. Fire events can alter the original vegetation stability allowing the vegetation to respond rapidly to climate changes while human activity merely has limited influence on vegetation changes.

Comparative phylogeography of two commensal rat species (Rattus tanezumi and Rattus norvegicus) in China: Insights from mitochondrial DNA, microsatellite, and 2b-RAD data

Rattus norvegicus and Rattus tanezumi are dominant species of Chinese house rats, but the colonization and demographic history of two species in China have not been thoroughly explored. Phylogenetic analyses with mitochondrial DNA including 486 individuals from 31 localities revealed that R. norvegicus is widely distributed in China, R. tanezumi is mainly distributed in southern China with currently invading northward; northeast China was the natal region of R. norvegicus, while the spread of R. tanezumi in China most likely started from the southeast coast. A total of 123 individuals from 18 localities were subjected to 2b-RAD analyses. In neighbor-joining tree, individuals of R. tanezumi grouped into geographic-specific branches, and populations from southeast coast were ancestral groups, which confirmed the colonization route from southeast coast to central and western China. However, individuals of R. norvegicus were generally grouped into two clusters instead of geographic-specific branches. One cluster comprised inland populations, and another cluster included both southeast coast and inland populations, which indicated that spread history of R. norvegicus in China was complex; in addition to on-land colonization, shipping transportation also have played great roles. ADMIXTURE and principal component analyses provided further supports for the colonization history. Demographic analyses revealed that climate changes at ~40,000 to 18,000 years ago and ~4000 years ago had led to population declines of both species; the R. norvegicus declined rapidly while the population of R. tanezumi continuously expanded since ~1500 years ago, indicating the importance of interspecies' competition in their population size changes. Our study provided a valuable framework for further investigation on phylogeography of two species in China.

Drought-Induced Civil Conflict Among the Ancient Maya

The influence of climate change on civil conflict and societal instability in the premodern world is a subject of much debate, in part because of the limited temporal or disciplinary scope of case studies. We present a transdisciplinary case study that combines archeological, historical, and paleoclimate datasets to explore the dynamic, shifting relationships among climate change, civil conflict, and political collapse at Mayapan, the largest Postclassic Maya capital of the Yucatán Peninsula in the thirteenth and fourteenth centuries CE. Multiple data sources indicate that civil conflict increased significantly and generalized linear modeling correlates strife in the city with drought conditions between 1400 and 1450 cal. CE. We argue that prolonged drought escalated rival factional tensions, but subsequent adaptations reveal regional-scale resiliency, ensuring that Maya political and economic structures endured until European contact in the early sixteenth century CE.

The influence of climate on premodern civil conflict and societal instability is debated. Here, the authors combine archeological, historical, and paleoclimatic datasets to show that drought between 1400-1450 cal. CE escalated civil conflict at Mayapan, the largest Postclassic Maya capital of the Yucatán Peninsula.

The Spatiotemporal Patterns of Human Settlement during the Longshan and Erlitou Periods in Relation to Extreme Floods and Subsistence Strategy in the Upper and Middle Qin River Reaches, Central China

Human settlement numbers have significantly changed before and after ~4000 cal. y BP in the upper and middle Qin River reaches, but the external and internal factors driving this change remain unclear. In this study, we examine changing spatial and temporal patterns of the Longshan and Erlitou settlements in relation to extreme flooding at ~4000 cal. y BP and a variety of subsistence strategies during the Longshan and Erlitou periods. The results indicate that settlement number, settlement distribution, and subsistence strategies exhibited obvious shifts between the Longshan and Erlitou periods, and the episode at ~4000 cal. y BP was an extreme-flood-rich interval within and around the Qin River Basin. During the Longshan and Erlitou periods, millet-based agriculture dominated local subsistence strategy, and ancient people would prefer to reside in the areas suitable for farming, causing the valley plains in the upper and middle Qin River reaches to contain most Longshan and Erlitou settlements. However, the frequent occurrence of extreme floods at ~4000 cal. y BP, in conjunction with intergroup conflicts due to a large amount of population immigration during the late Longshan period, is likely to have jointly decreased the settlement number and shrunk the spatial range of human settlement distribution. Subsequently, with the end of the extreme-flood-rich episode and the increasing proportion of higher-water-requirement foxtail millet in cropping structures of human subsistence strategy, more Erlitou settlements were distributed in the wetter valley plains of the middle Qin River reaches.

Fine-Scale Genetic Structure in the United Arab Emirates Reflects Endogamous and Consanguineous Culture, Population History, and Geography

The indigenous population of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has a unique demographic and cultural history. Its tradition of endogamy and consanguinity is expected to produce genetic homogeneity and partitioning of gene pools while population movements and intercontinental trade are likely to have contributed to genetic diversity. Emiratis and neighboring populations of the Middle East have been underrepresented in the population genetics literature with few studies covering the broader genetic history of the Arabian Peninsula. Here, we genotyped 1,198 individuals from the seven Emirates using 1.7 million markers and by employing haplotype-based algorithms and admixture analyses, we reveal the fine-scale genetic structure of the Emirati population. Shared ancestry and gene flow with neighboring populations display their unique geographic position while increased intra- versus inter-Emirati kinship and sharing of uniparental haplogroups, reflect the endogamous and consanguineous cultural traditions of the Emirates and their tribes.

Genomic transformation and social organization during the Copper Age-Bronze Age transition in southern Iberia

The emerging Bronze Age (BA) of southeastern Iberia saw marked social changes. Late Copper Age (CA) settlements were abandoned in favor of hilltop sites, and collective graves were largely replaced by single or double burials with often distinctive grave goods indirectly reflecting a hierarchical social organization, as exemplified by the BA El Argar group. We explored this transition from a genomic viewpoint by tripling the amount of data available for this period. Concomitant with the rise of El Argar starting ~2200 cal BCE, we observe a complete turnover of Y-chromosome lineages along with the arrival of steppe-related ancestry. This pattern is consistent with a founder effect in male lineages, supported by our finding that males shared more relatives at sites than females. However, simple two-source models do not find support in some El Argar groups, suggesting additional genetic contributions from the Mediterranean that could predate the BA.

An ecohydrological journey of 4500 years reveals a stable but threatened precipitation-groundwater recharge relation around Jerusalem

Groundwater is a key water resource in semiarid and seasonally dry regions around the world, which is replenished by intermittent precipitation events and mediated by vegetation, soil, and regolith properties. Here, a climate reconstruction of 4500 years for the Jerusalem region was used to determine the relation between climate, vegetation, and groundwater recharge. Despite changes in air temperature and vegetation characteristics, simulated recharge remained linearly related to precipitation over the entire analyzed period, with drier decades having lower rates of recharge for a given annual precipitation due to soil memory effects. We show that in recent decades, the lack of changes in the precipitation–groundwater recharge relation results from the compensating responses of vegetation to increasing CO₂, i.e., increased leaf area and reduced stomatal conductance. This multicentury relation is expected to be modified by climate change, with changes up to −20% in recharge for unchanged precipitation, potentially jeopardizing water resource availability.

Change of extreme snow events shaped the roof of traditional Chinese architecture in the past millennium

As a symbol of civilization and culture, architecture was originally developed for sheltering people from unpleasant weather or other environmental conditions. Therefore, architecture is expected to be sensitive to climate change, particularly to changes in the occurrence of extreme weather events. However, although meteorological factors are widely considered in modern architecture design, it remains unclear whether and how ancient people adapted to climate change from the perspective of architecture design, particularly on a millennium time scale. Here, we show periodic change and a positive trend in roof slope of traditional buildings in the northern part of central and eastern China and demonstrate climate change adaptation in traditional Chinese architecture, driven by fluctuations in extreme snowfall events over the past thousand years. This study provides an excellent example showing how humans have long been aware of the impact of climate change on daily life and learned to adapt to it.

Genomic basis underlying the metabolome-mediated drought adaptation of maize

Background

Drought is a major environmental disaster that causes crop yield loss worldwide. Metabolites are involved in various environmental stress responses of plants. However, the genetic control of metabolomes underlying crop environmental stress adaptation remains elusive.

Results

Here, we perform non-targeted metabolic profiling of leaves for 385 maize natural inbred lines grown under well-watered as well as drought-stressed conditions. A total of 3890 metabolites are identified and 1035 of these are differentially produced between well-watered and drought-stressed conditions, representing effective indicators of maize drought response and tolerance. Genetic dissections reveal the associations between these metabolites and thousands of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), which represented 3415 metabolite quantitative trait loci (mQTLs) and 2589 candidate genes. 78.6% of mQTLs (2684/3415) are novel drought-responsive QTLs. The regulatory variants that control the expression of the candidate genes are revealed by expression QTL (eQTL) analysis of the transcriptomes of leaves from 197 maize natural inbred lines. Integrated metabolic and transcriptomic assays identify dozens of environment-specific hub genes and their gene-metabolite regulatory networks. Comprehensive genetic and molecular studies reveal the roles and mechanisms of two hub genes, Bx12 and ZmGLK44, in regulating maize metabolite biosynthesis and drought tolerance.

Conclusion

Our studies reveal the first population-level metabolomes in crop drought response and uncover the natural variations and genetic control of these metabolomes underlying crop drought adaptation, demonstrating that multi-omics is a powerful strategy to dissect the genetic mechanisms of crop complex traits.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13059-021-02481-1.

The genomic history of the Middle East

The Middle East region is important to understand human evolution and migrations but is underrepresented in genomic studies. Here, we generated 137 high-coverage physically phased genome sequences from eight Middle Eastern populations using linked-read sequencing. We found no genetic traces of early expansions out-of-Africa in present-day populations but found Arabians have elevated Basal Eurasian ancestry that dilutes their Neanderthal ancestry. Population sizes within the region started diverging 15–20 kya, when Levantines expanded while Arabians maintained smaller populations that derived ancestry from local hunter-gatherers. Arabians suffered a population bottleneck around the aridification of Arabia 6 kya, while Levantines had a distinct bottleneck overlapping the 4.2 kya aridification event. We found an association between movement and admixture of populations in the region and the spread of Semitic languages. Finally, we identify variants that show evidence of selection, including polygenic selection. Our results provide detailed insights into the genomic and selective histories of the Middle East.

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Middle Easterners do not have ancestry from an early out-of-Africa expansion

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Basal Eurasian and African ancestry in Arabians deplete their Neanderthal ancestry

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Populations experienced bottlenecks overlapping aridification events

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Identification of recent single and polygenic signals of selection in Arabia

The archaeology of climate change: The case for cultural diversity

Anthropogenic climate change is currently driving environmental transformation on a scale and at a pace that exceeds historical records. This represents an undeniably serious challenge to existing social, political, and economic systems. Humans have successfully faced similar challenges in the past, however. The archaeological record and Earth archives offer rare opportunities to observe the complex interaction between environmental and human systems under different climate regimes and at different spatial and temporal scales. The archaeology of climate change offers opportunities to identify the factors that promoted human resilience in the past and apply the knowledge gained to the present, contributing a much-needed, long-term perspective to climate research. One of the strengths of the archaeological record is the cultural diversity it encompasses, which offers alternatives to the solutions proposed from within the Western agro-industrial complex, which might not be viable cross-culturally. While contemporary climate discourse focuses on the importance of biodiversity, we highlight the importance of cultural diversity as a source of resilience.

Holocene Environmental Archaeology of the Yangtze River Valley in China: A Review

The Yangtze River Valley is an important economic region and one of the cradles of human civilization. It is also the site of frequent floods, droughts, and other natural disasters. Conducting Holocene environmental archaeology research in this region is of great importance when studying the evolution of the relationship between humans and the environment and the interactive effects humans had on the environment from 10.0 to 3.0 ka BP, for which no written records exist. This review provides a comprehensive summary of materials that have been published over the past several decades concerning Holocene environmental archaeology in the Yangtze River Valley, to further understand large-scale regional Holocene environmental and cultural interaction within this area. The results show that: (1) in recent years, Holocene envi-ronmental archaeology research in the Yangtze River Valley has primarily taken paleoflood and sea-level change stratigraphical events to be the foundational threads for study. This began with research on the spatiotemporal distribution of archaeological sites, typical archaeological site stratigraphy, and research on background features concerning environmental evolution recorded by the regional natural sedimentary strata. (2) Significant progress has been made at the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, indicating that Holocene environmental ar-chaeology research along the Yangtze River Valley is deepening and broadening. (3) Dramatic changes to Neolithic cultures that occurred approximately 4.0 ka BP were influenced by climate change and associated consequences, although the impacts differed on the various Neolithic cultures in the Yangtze River Valley. Local topography, regional climate, and varying survival strategies may have contributed to these differences. (4) Newly-published research pays particular attention to the sedimentary records of the past with resolutions as high as one year to several months, the degree to which humans altered the quality of their natural environment, and human adjustments to settlement and subsistence practices during periods of Holocene climate change. The application of technologies such as remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIS), and molecular biological analysis are also gradually being extended into the research field of Holocene environmental archaeology in the Yangtze River Valley.

Towards a rigorous understanding of societal responses to climate change

A large scholarship currently holds that before the onset of anthropogenic global warming, natural climatic changes long provoked subsistence crises and, occasionally, civilizational collapses among human societies. This scholarship, which we term the 'history of climate and society' (HCS), is pursued by researchers from a wide range of disciplines, including archaeologists, economists, geneticists, geographers, historians, linguists and palaeoclimatologists. We argue that, despite the wide interest in HCS, the field suffers from numerous biases, and often does not account for the local effects and spatiotemporal heterogeneity of past climate changes or the challenges of interpreting historical sources. Here we propose an interdisciplinary framework for uncovering climate-society interactions that emphasizes the mechanics by which climate change has influenced human history, and the uncertainties inherent in discerning that influence across different spatiotemporal scales. Although we acknowledge that climate change has sometimes had destructive effects on past societies, the application of our framework to numerous case studies uncovers five pathways by which populations survived-and often thrived-in the face of climatic pressures.

Archaeology, demography and life history theory together can help us explain past and present population patterns

Population matters. Demographic patterns are both a cause and a consequence of human behaviour in other important domains, such as subsistence, cooperation, politics and culture. Demographers interested in contemporary and recent historical populations have rich data at their fingertips; the importance of demography means many interested parties have gathered demographic data, much of which is now readily available for all to explore. Those interested in the demography of the distant past are not so fortunate, given the lack of written records. Nevertheless, the emergence in recent years of a new interest in the demography of ancient populations has seen the development of a range of new methods for piecing together archaeological, skeletal and DNA evidence to reconstruct past population patterns. These efforts have found evidence in support of the view that the relatively low long-term population growth rates of prehistoric human populations, albeit ultimately conditioned by carrying capacities, may have been owing to 'boom-bust' cycles at the regional level; rapid population growth, followed by population decline. In fact, this archaeological research may have come to the same conclusion as some contemporary demographers: that demography can be remarkably hard to predict, at least in the short term. It also fits with evidence from biology that primates, and particularly humans, may be adapted to environmental variability, leading to associated demographic stochasticity. This evidence of the fluctuating nature of human demographic patterns may be of considerable significance in understanding our species' evolution, and of understanding what our species future demographic trajectories might be. This article is part of the theme issue 'Cross-disciplinary approaches to prehistoric demography'.

Collapse and continuity: A multi-proxy reconstruction of settlement organization and population trajectories in the Northern Fertile Crescent during the 4.2kya Rapid Climate Change event

The rise and fall of ancient societies have been attributed to rapid climate change events. One of the most discussed of these is the 4.2kya event, a period of increased aridity and cooling posited as the cause of societal changes across the globe, including the collapse of the Akkadian Empire in Mesopotamia. Studies seeking to correlate social and climatic changes around the 4.2kya event have tended to focus either on highly localized analyses of specific sites or surveys or more synthetic overviews at pan-continental scales, and temporally on the event and its aftermath. Here we take an empirical approach at a large spatial scale to investigate trends in population and settlement organization across the entirety of Northern Fertile Crescent (Northern Mesopotamia and the Northern Levant) from 6,000 to 3,000 cal BP. We use Summed Probability Distributions of radiocarbon dates and data from eighteen archaeological surveys as proxies for population, and a dataset of all settlements over ten hectares in size as a proxy for the degree of urbanization. The goal is to examine the spatial and temporal impact of the 4.2kya event and to contextualize it within longer term patterns of settlement. We find that negative trends are visible during the event horizon in all three proxies. However, these occur against a long-term trend of increased population and urbanization supported through unsustainable overshoot and the exploitation of a drier zone with increased risk of crop failure. We argue that the 4.2kya event occurred during a period of unprecedented urban and rural growth which may have been unsustainable even without an exogenous climate forcing.

Fossil leaf wax hydrogen isotopes reveal variability of Atlantic and Mediterranean climate forcing on the southeast Iberian Peninsula between 6000 to 3000 cal. BP

Many recently published papers have investigated the spatial and temporal manifestation of the 4.2 ka BP climate event at regional and global scales. However, questions with regard to the potential drivers of the associated climate change remain open. Here, we investigate the interaction between Atlantic and Mediterranean climate forcing on the south-eastern Iberian Peninsula during the mid- to late Holocene using compound-specific hydrogen isotopes from fossil leaf waxes preserved in marine sediments. Variability of hydrogen isotope values in the study area is primarily related to changes in the precipitation source and indicates three phases of increased Mediterranean sourced precipitation from 5450 to 5350 cal. BP, from 5150 to 4300 cal. BP including a short-term interruption around 4800 cal. BP, and from 3400 to 3000 cal. BP interrupted around 3200 cal. BP. These phases are in good agreement with times of prevailing positive modes of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and reduced storm activity in the Western Mediterranean suggesting that the NAO was the dominant modulator of relative variability in precipitation sources. However, as previously suggested other modes such as the Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO) may have altered this overall relationship. In this regard, a decrease in Mediterranean moisture source coincident with a rapid reduction in warm season precipitation during the 4.2 ka BP event at the south-eastern Iberian Peninsula might have been related to negative WeMO conditions.

Filling Important Gaps in the Genomic History of Southwest Asia

Many crucial developments in human prehistory occurred in Southwest Asia, including the transition to agriculture as well as the emergence of writing and of the earliest civilization. Two new studies in this issue of Cell map the genetic composition of human groups inhabiting the region during the sixth and first millennia Before Common Era (BCE) and uncover periods of significant population turnover.

Climate change fostered cultural dynamics of human resilience in Europe in the past 2500 years

Humans possess limited knowledge on what generated cultural dynamics to strengthen human resilience to overcome climate-induced stresses. Although the highly developed mental ability of humans could have enabled significant human resilience in history, no study has empirically explained or has even scientifically confirmed how and when such dynamics arose. To fill the current research gap, this study therefore explores the associations among climatic conditions, the evolutional dynamics of human thinkers and their thoughts, and human ecological-socioeconomic conditions in the past 2500 years in Europe. Results from quantitative modellings and causal analyses confirm that climatic-ecological stresses led to human ecological-socioeconomic crises, and thereby dramatically increased twice of the thinkers' number and their thoughts' impact across different philosophies in truth, knowledge, and ethics for adaptation at multi-decadal to centennial temporal scales, especially in spirituality oriented mentality. The process of the stress-generated cultural dynamics displays some similarities with the stress-induced mutagenesis in organism evolution. Ultimately, climatic-ecological stresses prompt the escalation in the number of thinkers and impacts of their thoughts and flourishing of philosophy. Such stress-regenerated cultural dynamics imply that the current climate change threat may stimulate another thriving phase of cultural selection and lift humans to the next homeostatic plateau of civilization. Findings also extend the cognate scope of psychological, sociological, and civilization studies.

Beyond megadrought and collapse in the Northern Levant: The chronology of Tell Tayinat and two historical inflection episodes, around 4.2ka BP, and following 3.2ka BP

There has been considerable focus on the main, expansionary, and inter-regionally linked or 'globalising' periods in Old World pre- and proto-history, with a focus on identifying, analyzing and dating collapse at the close of these pivotal periods. The end of the Early Bronze Age in the late third millennium BCE and a subsequent 'intermediate' or transitional period before the Middle Bronze Age (~2200-1900 BCE), and the end of the Late Bronze Age in the late second millennium BCE and the ensuing period of transformation during the Early Iron Age (~1200-900 BCE), are key examples. Among other issues, climate change is regularly invoked as a cause or factor in both cases. Recent considerations of "collapse" have emphasized the unpredictability and variability of responses during such periods of reorganization and transformation. Yet, a gap in scholarly attention remains in documenting the responses observed at important sites during these 'transformative' periods in the Old World region. Tell Tayinat in southeastern Turkey, as a major archaeological site occupied during these two major 'in between' periods of transformation, offers a unique case for comparing and contrasting differing responses to change. To enable scholarly assessment of associations between the local trajectory of the site and broader regional narratives, an essential preliminary need is a secure, resolved timeframe for the site. Here we report a large set of radiocarbon data and incorporate the stratigraphic sequence using Bayesian chronological modelling to create a refined timeframe for Tell Tayinat and a secure basis for analysis of the site with respect to its broader regional context and climate history.

Holocene moisture variations in the Arid Central Asia: New evidence from the southern Altai Mountains of China

A continuous peat sequence collected in the southern Altai Mountains provides a new opportunity to reconstruct the Holocene vegetation and moisture history in the Arid Central Asia. Based on pollen data of 190 samples with a chronologic support of eight AMS dates from a 380-cm core at Tuolehaite (TLHT) Peat, the Holocene moisture variations in the southern Altai Mountains of China were reconstructed. The reconstruction revealed a wet early Holocene (~10,600-~8500cal. yr BP), a considerably dry middle Holocene (~8500-~4000 cal. yr BP) and a resumed wet late Holocene (~4000-0 cal. yr BP). The Holocene moisture reconstruction is generally corroborated by other reviewed sequences from the southern Altai Mountains and the surrounding areas. According to the analysis of modern sources of precipatable water vapor for the southern Altai Mountains, the Holocene moisture variations in the southern Altai Mountains were proposed to have been causally associated with the variations in the sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic Ocean and also with the variations in the strength of Siberian High Pressure in the core of the Eurasian continent.

End of Green Sahara amplified mid- to late Holocene megadroughts in mainland Southeast Asia

Between 5 and 4 thousand years ago, crippling megadroughts led to the disruption of ancient civilizations across parts of Africa and Asia, yet the extent of these climate extremes in mainland Southeast Asia (MSEA) has never been defined. This is despite archeological evidence showing a shift in human settlement patterns across the region during this period. We report evidence from stalagmite climate records indicating a major decrease of monsoon rainfall in MSEA during the mid- to late Holocene, coincident with African monsoon failure during the end of the Green Sahara. Through a set of modeling experiments, we show that reduced vegetation and increased dust loads during the Green Sahara termination shifted the Walker circulation eastward and cooled the Indian Ocean, causing a reduction in monsoon rainfall in MSEA. Our results indicate that vegetation-dust climate feedbacks from Sahara drying may have been the catalyst for societal shifts in MSEA via ocean-atmospheric teleconnections.

The mid-Holocene has seen a number of climate shifts, which have been associated with societal changes. Here, the authors investigate in a centuries long megadrought in Southeast Asia during the mid-Holocene, possibly caused by the end of the Green Sahara period.

Human responses to climate and ecosystem change in ancient Arabia

Recent interdisciplinary archaeological and paleoenvironmental research in the Arabian peninsula is transforming our understanding of ancient human societies in their ecological contexts. Hypotheses about the cultural and demographic impacts of a series of droughts have primarily been developed from the environmental and archaeological records of southeastern Arabia. Here we examine these human-environment interactions by integrating ongoing research from northern Arabia. While droughts and extreme environmental variability in the Holocene had significant impacts on human societies, responses varied across space and time and included mobility at various scales, as well as diverse social, economic and cultural adaptations, such as the management of water resources, the introduction of pastoral lifeways, and the construction of diverse types of stone structures. The long-term story of human societies in Arabia is one of resilience in the face of climate change, yet future challenges include rising temperatures and flash flooding. The history of human responses to climatic and ecosystem changes in Arabia can provide important lessons for a planet facing catastrophic global warming and environmental change.

Leveraging legacy archaeological collections as proxies for climate and environmental research

Understanding the causes and consequences of previous climate changes is essential for testing present-day climate models and projections. Archaeological sites are paleoenvironmental archives containing unique ecological baselines with data on paleoclimate transformations at a human timescale. Anthropogenic and nonanthropogenic forces have destroyed many sites, and others are under immediate threat. In the face of this loss, previously excavated collections from these sites-referred to as legacy collections-offer a source of climate and other paleoenvironmental information that may no longer exist elsewhere. Here, we 1) review obstacles to systematically using data from legacy archaeological collections, such as inconsistent or unreported field methods, inadequate records, unsatisfactory curation, and insufficient public knowledge of relevant collections; 2) suggest best practices for integrating archaeological data into climate and environmental research; and 3) summarize several studies to demonstrate the benefits and challenges of using legacy collections as archives of local and regional environmental proxies. Data from archaeological legacy collections contribute regional ecological baselines as well as serve to correct shifting baselines. They also enable regional climate reconstructions at various timescales and corroborate or refine radiocarbon dates. Such uses of legacy collections raise ethical concerns regarding ownership of and responsibility for cultural resources and highlight the importance of Indigenous involvement in planning and executing fieldwork and stewardship of cultural heritage. Finally, we discuss methodologies, practices, and policies pertaining to archaeological legacy collections and support calls for discipline-wide shifts in collections management to ensure their long-term utility in multidisciplinary research and public engagement.

Spatial–Temporal Variation of Cropping Patterns in Relation to Climate Change in Neolithic China

The Neolithic period witnessed the start and spread of agriculture across Eurasia, as well as the beginning of important climate changes which would take place over millennia. Nevertheless, it remains rather unclear in what ways local societies chose to respond to these considerable changes in both the shorter and longer term. Crops such as rice and millet were domesticated in the Yangtze River and the Yellow River valleys in China during the early Holocene. Paleoclimate studies suggest that the pattern of precipitation in these two areas was distinctly different. This paper reviews updated archaeobotanical evidence from Neolithic sites in China. Comparing these results to the regional high-resolution paleoclimate records enables us to better understand the development of rice and millet and its relation to climate change. This comparison shows that rice was mainly cultivated in the Yangtze River valley and its southern margin, whereas millet cultivation occurred in the northern area of China during 9000–7000 BP. Both millet and rice-based agriculture became intensified and expanded during 7000–5000 BP. In the following period of 5000–4000 BP, rice agriculture continued to expand within the Yangtze River valley and millet cultivation moved gradually westwards. Meanwhile, mixed agriculture based on both millet and rice developed along the boundary between north and south. From 9000–7000 BP, China maintained hunting activities. Subsequently, from 7000–6000 BP, changes in vegetation and landscape triggered by climate change played an essential role in the development of agriculture. Precipitation became an important factor in forming the distinct regional patterns of Chinese agriculture in 6000–4000 BP.

There and back again: A zooarchaeological perspective on Early and Middle Bronze Age urbanism in the southern Levant

Multiple arguments for or against the presence of ‘urban’ settlements in the Early Bronze Age of the southern Levant have identified the need to compare these settlements against their rural hinterlands through multiple lines of evidence. This meta-analysis of zooarchaeological data from the region compares and identifies patterns of animal production, provisioning and consumption between the supposed “urban” and rural sites of the southern Levant from the Early Bronze (EB) against the (more widely recognised urban) Middle Bronze (MB) Ages. It also identifies distinct and regionally specific patterns in animal production and consumption that can be detected between urban and rural sites of the southern Levant. The taxonomic and age profiles from EB Ia and Ib sites do not demonstrate any urban versus rural differentiation patterning, even though fortifications appear in the EB Ib. Beginning in the EB II and clearly visible in the EB III, there is differentiation between rural and urban sites in the taxonomic and age proportions. Differentiation is repeated in the MB II. The clear differentiation between “urban” and rural zooarchaeological assemblages from the EB II-III and MB suggest that rural sites are provisioning the larger fortified settlements. This pattern indicates that these sites are indeed urban in nature, and these societies are organized at the state-level. From the EB II onwards, there is a clear bias in the large centres towards the consumption of cattle and of subadult sheep and goats with a corresponding bias in smaller rural sites towards the consumption of adult sheep and goats and a reduced presence of cattle. After the emergence of this differential pattern, it disappears with the decline in social complexity at the end of the Early Bronze Age, only to come ‘back again’ with the re-emergence of urban settlement systems in the Middle Bronze Age.

5,200-year-old cereal grains from the eastern Altai Mountains redate the trans-Eurasian crop exchange

Wheat and barley evolved from large-seeded annual grasses in the arid, low latitudes of Asia; their spread into higher elevations and northern latitudes involved corresponding evolutionary adaptations in these plants, including traits for frost tolerance and shifts in photoperiod sensitivity. The adaptation of farming populations to these northern latitudes was also a complex and poorly understood process that included changes in cultivation practices and the varieties of crops grown. In this article, we push back the earliest dates for the spread of wheat and barley into northern regions of Asia as well as providing earlier cultural links between East and West Asia. The archaeobotanical, palynological and anthracological data we present come from the Tongtian Cave site in the Altai Mountains, with a punctuated occupation dating between 5,200 and 3,200 calibrated years BP, coinciding with global cooling of the middle-late Holocene transition. These early low-investment agropastoral populations in the north steppe area played a major role in the prehistoric trans-Eurasian exchange.

Three scenarios in insect-borne diseases

This chapter deals with the core of the book, considering that insect-borne diseases are not only a human matter; there are important effects regarding plants and animals with enormous economic consequences and connected with our first interest: the production of food and its quality. In fact, it is useful to concentrate on the consequences of these diseases for our health, when this is part of the problem. Parasites are interested in any kind of appropriate host and we are generally a secondary target. Therefore, this chapter will be divided into three parts: diseases affecting mankind, animals, and plants.

However, first let’s consider the general frame of this argument, whose roots are in the distant past. Plague caused the decline of villages, towns, and empires, changing the direction of history. Plague is no longer a menace to humanity, and this is clearly evidenced by the improvements of medicine and hygiene in the last centuries—but it can return. It depends, as in the past, on us. Several factors are changing the impact and the occurrence of insect-borne diseases, although most of general aspects are maintained and have been present for a long time. Thanks to recent analytic techniques, it is possible to explain new aspects of the presence and diffusion of these diseases, as well as their past, present, and future impacts. Information about the main current insect-borne diseases is reported and divided into four steps. First, the story of the plague is presented as the most important one in the past. Later, diseases affecting mankind, animals, and plants are reported. In particular, the influences of environmental change, introduction of alien species, and new alerts are considered. The outbreaks concerning malaria, Bluetongue, and Xylella are reported in detail as model cases of current interest. The scientific study of insect-borne diseases started about 100 years ago, but we have now accumulated a large quantity of data and research, whose quantity and quality are continuously increasing. However, information about the incidence in human activities is largely available.

Precise timing of abrupt increase in dust activity in the Middle East coincident with 4.2 ka social change

The extent to which climate change causes significant societal disruption remains controversial. An important example is the decline of the Akkadian Empire in northern Mesopotamia ∼4.2 ka, for which the existence of a coincident climate event is still uncertain. Here we present an Iranian stalagmite record spanning 5.2 ka to 3.7 ka, dated with 25 U/Th ages that provide an average age uncertainty of 31 y (1σ). We find two periods of increased Mg/Ca, beginning abruptly at 4.51 and 4.26 ka, and lasting 110 and 290 y, respectively. Each of these periods coincides with slower vertical stalagmite growth and a gradual increase in stable oxygen isotope ratios. The periods of high Mg/Ca are explained by periods of increased dust flux sourced from the Mesopotamia region, and the abrupt onset of this dustiness indicates threshold behavior in response to aridity. This interpretation is consistent with existing marine and terrestrial records from the broad region, which also suggest that the later, longer event beginning at 4.26 ka is of greater regional extent and/or amplitude. The chronological precision and high resolution of our record indicates that there is no significant difference, at decadal level, between the start date of the second, larger dust event and the timing of North Mesopotamia settlement abandonment, and furthermore reveals striking similarity between the total duration of the second dust event and settlement abandonment. The Iranian record demonstrates this region's threshold behavior in dust production, and its ability to maintain this climate state for multiple centuries naturally.

Regional paleoclimates and local consequences: Integrating GIS analysis of diachronic settlement patterns and process-based agroecosystem modeling of potential agricultural productivity in Provence (France)

Holocene climate variability in the Mediterranean Basin is often cited as a potential driver of societal change, but the mechanisms of this putative influence are generally little explored. In this paper we integrate two tools–agro-ecosystem modeling of potential agricultural yields and spatial analysis of archaeological settlement pattern data–in order to examine the human consequences of past climatic changes. Focusing on a case study in Provence (France), we adapt an agro-ecosystem model to the modeling of potential agricultural productivity during the Holocene. Calibrating this model for past crops and agricultural practices and using a downscaling approach to produce high spatiotemporal resolution paleoclimate data from a Mediterranean Holocene climate reconstruction, we estimate realistic potential agricultural yields under past climatic conditions. These serve as the basis for spatial analysis of archaeological settlement patterns, in which we examine the changing relationship over time between agricultural productivity and settlement location. Using potential agricultural productivity (PAgP) as a measure of the human consequences of climate changes, we focus on the relative magnitudes of 1) climate-driven shifts in PAgP and 2) the potential increases in productivity realizable through agricultural intensification. Together these offer a means of assessing the scale and mechanisms of the vulnerability and resilience of Holocene inhabitants of Provence to climate change. Our results suggest that settlement patterns were closely tied to PAgP throughout most of the Holocene, with the notable exception of the period from the Middle Bronze Age through the Early Iron Age. This pattern does not appear to be linked to any climatically-driven changes in PAgP, and conversely the most salient changes in PAgP during the Holocene cannot be clearly linked to any changes in settlement pattern. We argue that this constitutes evidence that vulnerability and resilience to climate change are strongly dependent on societal variables.

The Application of Buried Soil Properties for Reconstruction of Various Stages of Early Habitation at Archaeological Sites in Moscow Kremlin

Combined archaeological and pedogenetic study allows reconstructing the history of early habitation in Moscow Kremlin (Moscow, Russia). The area is confined to the third terrace of Moskva River with Podzols as native soils formed in fluvioglacial sandy deposits under virgin broad-leaved forests with conifers. From the Early Iron Age (1500–2000 BP) to the 12th century, alternating stages of agricultural land use and abandonment resulted in human-induced transformation of natural ecosystems into agricultural landscapes. Agricultural land use provoked soil erosion that lead to truncation of the upper soil horizons. Sediments deposited due to slope erosion and mineral materials transported by ancient people enhanced initial lithic discontinuity of soil parent material. Ancient agricultural practices included melioration of soils by mineral and organic fertilizers. During the Early Iron Age the pasture was fertilized by ash and limed by crushed dolomite. Melioration of the 12th century included not only ash and dolomite but also crushed bones, manure and household waste. A change from the agricultural to urban land use after 15th century resulted in the accumulation of cultural layers. A few interruptions in their accumulation, which were caused by accidental fires or other phenomena, were accompanied by regeneration of natural vegetation cover and the formation of shallow soils imprinted on cultural layers.

Holocene evolution of Portus Pisanus, the lost harbour of Pisa

The ancient harbour of Pisa, Portus Pisanus, was one of Italy's most influential seaports for many centuries. Nonetheless, very little is known about its oldest harbour and the relationships between environmental evolution and the main stages of harbour history. The port complex that ensured Pisa's position as an economic and maritime power progressively shifted westwards by coastal progradation, before the maritime port of Livorno was built in the late 16^th century AD. The lost port is, however, described in the early 5^th century AD as being "a large, naturally sheltered embayment" that hosted merchant vessels, suggesting an important maritime structure with significant artificial infrastructure to reach the city. Despite its importance, the geographical location of the harbour complex remains controversial and its environmental evolution is unclear. To fill this knowledge gap and furnish accurate palaeoenvironmental information on Portus Pisanus, we used bio- and geosciences. Based on stratigraphic data, the area's relative sea-level history, and long-term environmental dynamics, we established that at ~200 BC, a naturally protected lagoon developed and hosted Portus Pisanus until the 5^th century AD. The decline of the protected lagoon started at ~1350 AD and culminated ~1500 AD, after which time the basin was a coastal lake.

Micromorphological and Chemical Features of Soils as Evidence of Bronze Age Ancient Anthropogenic Impact (Late Bronze Age Muradymovo Settlement, Ural Region, Russia)

In some cases, the human impact on ancient landscapes has been so profound that local soils still remain significantly affected even after hundreds and thousands of years after ending impact. We studied the Late Bronze Age Muradymovo settlement located in the Urals, Russia, aiming to estimate the consequences of the ancient people’s activity on the environment. Despite the present humid climate, the modern soils inside the cultural layer of the study site contain more than 27% of gypsum at a depth of just 10 cm from the surface, and a microrelief of the study site is typical of a gypsum desert. The nearby background Chernozems are gypsum-free to a depth of 2 m. According to the archaeological data, the ancient people belonged to the ‘Srubno-Alakul’ archaeological culture (1750–1350 years B.C. cal (calibrated years before Christ)) and had a tradition of building their houses from gypsum rocks. At the present time, this area is still unsuitable for human settlement. The properties of modern soils inside the cultural layer of the study site are directly affected by the Late Bronze Age human activities. It has been identified on soil morphology, micromorphology, and chemical properties of soils developed inside the cultural layer of the settlement.

How ecological feedbacks between human population and land cover influence sustainability

It is estimated that the Earth's biocapacity is unable to meet current demands, which begs the question: is a sustainable future possible for both humans and the environment? The UN projects a human population of approximately 11 billion by the end of the 21st century; requiring additional agricultural land, greater demands for natural resources, and technological advancements. We model human population over the next century, emphasizing feedbacks between natural and agricultural resource availability and human demography. We argue that an intensive agriculture approach to feeding the growing population is ill-conceived, without considering biodiversity and ecosystem services (e.g., nutrient cycling, pollination, water purification, pest control). The productivity of agricultural land and human population dynamics are dependent on the area of natural land-generally, tipping at 5 billion ha of natural land (approximately 40% of the Earth's terrestrial area). Furthermore, our model shows that an imprudent proactive approach (i.e., focusing on agriculture and ignoring ecosystem services) limits the success of reactive measures (i.e., restoration) in the future, while the inability to react to changes and recover natural systems leads to human population decline.

δ13 C values in archaeological 14 C-AMS dated charcoals: assessing mid-Holocene climate fluctuations and human response from a high-resolution isotope record (Arslantepe, Turkey)

RATIONALE

Past climate has always influenced human adaptation to the environment. In order to reconstruct palaeoclimate fluctuations and their role in the evolution of Near Eastern societies during the mid-Holocene, high-resolution Δ13 C records from fossil wood remains at the archaeological site of Arslantepe (eastern Turkey) have been developed.

METHODS

After chemical treatment, δ13 C values were measured by sample combustion flow using a FLASH EA-CHNS instrument interfaced with a Delta V isotope ratio mass spectrometer via a CONFLO III. Two replicates per sample were analysed. The measurement precision was evaluated by propagating variations of the δ13 C values of samples and V-PDB standards, whereas the accuracy was checked by a quality control sample. To account for changes in atmospheric CO2 , Δ13 C values were calculated. In addition, 14 C/12 C ratios were measured by means of ann AMS system (3 MV tandem accelerator).

RESULTS

Mean Δ13 C curves of deciduous Quercus and Juniperus from archaeological levels between 4700 and 2000 BC (Arslantepe periods VIII-VI D) were produced, where the isotope values were ordered by the available RC ages. Interspecific variations of evergreen vs deciduous plants were postulated for the juniper Δ13 C values being higher than 3‰. The seasonal rainfall amount was recorded by the juniper remains, while the water table levels were obtained from the oak samples.

CONCLUSIONS

The local climate experienced times of enhanced/reduced precipitation in concert with regional trends. Anomalies in the air mass circulation from the Mediterranean basin also produced oscillations of rainfall amount. In such a frame the Rapid Climate Change dry events had a consistent signature in the Arslantepe Δ13 C record, thus potentially contributing to social or organisational changes at the site.

Planetary Overload, Limits to Growth and Health

Since the use of atomic weapons in 1945 visionaries have warned that without major changes the survival of global civilization is in question. These concerns deepened in following decades, during the Cold War, with The Limits to Growth, the best-selling environmental book of the 1970s. Yet, since then, most concern has faded, fuelled by technological developments and a shift in dominant global ideology. Public health, with a few exceptions (one of which is the book Planetary Overload), has been slow to recognize this debate, even as evidence emerges that civilization may indeed be at risk, driven by an increasingly ominous complex of events. This article outlines the key relevant literature and concepts, attempting to bring emerging and future health consequences to the attention of health workers, including the idea of a "social vaccine," conveying sufficient anxiety to provoke action for environmental protection, but insufficient to induce paralysis.

Late Bronze Age climate change and the destruction of the Mycenaean Palace of Nestor at Pylos

This paper offers new high-resolution oxygen and carbon isotope data from Stalagmite S1 from Mavri Trypa Cave, SW Peloponnese. Our data provide the climate background to the destruction of the nearby Mycenaean Palace of Nestor at Pylos at the transition from Late Helladic (LH) IIIB to LH IIIC, ~3150-3130 years before present (before AD 1950, hereafter yrs BP) and the subsequent period. S1 is dated by 24 U-Th dates with an averaged precision of ±26 yrs (2σ), providing one of the most robust paleoclimate records from the eastern Mediterranean for the end of the Late Bronze Age (LBA). The δ18O record shows generally wetter conditions at the time when the Palace of Nestor at Pylos was destroyed, but a brief period of drier conditions around 3200 yrs BP may have disrupted the Mycenaean agricultural system that at the time was likely operating close to its limit. Gradually developing aridity after 3150 yrs BP, i.e. subsequent to the destruction, probably reduced crop yields and helped to erode the basis for the reinstitution of a central authority and the Palace itself.

Holocene fluctuations in human population demonstrate repeated links to food production and climate

We consider the long-term relationship between human demography, food production, and Holocene climate via an archaeological radiocarbon date series of unprecedented sampling density and detail. There is striking consistency in the inferred human population dynamics across different regions of Britain and Ireland during the middle and later Holocene. Major cross-regional population downturns in population coincide with episodes of more abrupt change in North Atlantic climate and witness societal responses in food procurement as visible in directly dated plants and animals, often with moves toward hardier cereals, increased pastoralism, and/or gathered resources. For the Neolithic, this evidence questions existing models of wholly endogenous demographic boom-bust. For the wider Holocene, it demonstrates that climate-related disruptions have been quasi-periodic drivers of societal and subsistence change.