High-impact marine heatwaves attributable to human-induced global warming

In Hot Water: Current Thermal Threshold Methods Unlikely to Predict Invasive Species Shifts in NW Atlantic

As global temperatures continue to rise, accurate predicted species distribution models will be important for forecasting the movement of range-shifting species. These predictions rely on measurements of organismal thermal tolerance, which can be measured using classical threshold concepts such as Arrhenius break temperatures and critical thermal temperatures, or through ecologically relevant measurements such as the temperature at which reproduction and growth occur. Many species, including invasive species, exhibit thermal plasticity, so these thresholds may change based on ambient temperature, life stage, and measurement techniques. Here, we review thermal thresholds for 15 invertebrate species invasive to the Gulf of Maine. The high degree of variability within a species and between applied conceptual frameworks suggests that modeling the future distribution of these species in all ecosystems, but especially in the rapidly warming northwest Atlantic and Gulf of Maine, will be challenging. While each of these measurement techniques is valid, we suggest contextualization and integration of threshold measurements for accurate modeling.

Bivalves under extreme weather events: A comparative study of five economically important species in the South China sea during marine heatwaves

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are increasing in frequency and intensity, threatening marine organisms and ecosystems they support. Yet, little is known about impacts of intensifying MHWs on ecologically and economically important bivalves cultured in the South China Sea. Here, we compared survival and physiological responses of five bivalve species, Pinctada fucata, Crassostrea angulata, Perna viridis, Argopecten irradians and Paphia undulata, to two consecutive MHWs events (3 days of thermal exposure to + 4 °C or + 8 °C, following 3 days of recovery under ambient conditions). While P. fucata, P. viridis, and P. undulata are native to the South China Sea region, C. angulata and A. irradians are not. Individuals of P. fucata, C. angulata and P. viridis had higher stress tolerance to MHWs than A. irradians and P. undulata, the latter already experiencing 100% mortality under +8 °C conditions during the first event. With increasing intensity of MHWs, standard metabolic rates of all five species increased significantly, in line with significant depressions of function-related energy-metabolizing enzymes (CMA, NKA, and T-ATP). Likewise, activities of antioxidant enzymes (SOD, CAT, and MDA) and shell mineralization-related enzymes (AKP and ACP) responded significantly to MHWs, despite species-specific performances observed. These findings demonstrate that some bivalve species can likely fail to accommodate intensifying MHWs events in the South China Sea, but some may persist. If this is the case, then one would expect substantial loss of fitness in bivalve aquaculture in the South China Sea under intensifying MHWs conditions.

Temperature influences immune cell development and body length in purple sea urchin larvae

Anthropogenic climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of marine heatwaves that may broadly impact the health of marine invertebrates. Rising ocean temperatures lead to increases in disease prevalence in marine organisms; it is therefore critical to understand how marine heatwaves impact immune system development. The purple sea urchin (Strongylocentrotus purpuratus) is an ecologically important, broadcast-spawning, omnivore that primarily inhabits kelp forests in the northeastern Pacific Ocean. The S. purpuratus life cycle includes a relatively long-lived (∼2 months) planktotrophic larval stage. Larvae have a well-characterized cellular immune system that is mediated, in part, by a subset of mesenchymal cells known as pigment cells. To assess the role of environmental temperature on the development of larval immune cells, embryos were generated from adult sea urchins conditioned at 14 °C. Embryos were then cultured in either ambient (14 °C) or elevated (18 °C) seawater. Results indicate that larvae raised in an elevated temperature were slightly larger and had more pigment cells than those raised at ambient temperature. Further, the larval phenotypes varied significantly among genetic crosses, which highlights the importance of genotype in structuring how the immune system develops in the context of the environment. Overall, these results indicate that larvae are phenotypically plastic in modulating their immune cells and body length in response to adverse developmental conditions.

Significant challenges to the sustainability of the California coast considering climate change

Climate change is an existential threat to the environmental and socioeconomic sustainability of the coastal zone and impacts will be complex and widespread. Evidence from California and across the United States shows that climate change is impacting coastal communities and challenging managers with a plethora of stressors already present. Widespread action could be taken that would sustain California's coastal ecosystems and communities. In this perspective, we highlight the main threat to coastal sustainability: the compound effects of episodic events amplified with ongoing climate change, which will present unprecedented challenges to the state. We present two key challenges for California's sustainability in the coastal zone: 1) accelerating sea-level rise combined with storm impacts, and 2) continued warming of the oceans and marine heatwaves. Cascading effects from these types of compounding events will occur within the context of an already stressed system that has experienced extensive alterations due to intensive development, resource extraction and harvesting, spatial containment, and other human use pressures. There are critical components that could be used to address these immediate concerns, including comanagement strategies that include diverse groups and organizations, strategic planning integrated across large areas, rapid implementation of solutions, and a cohesive and policy relevant research agenda for the California coast. Much of this has been started in the state, but the scale could be increased, and timelines accelerated. The ideas and information presented here are intended to help expand discussions to sharpen the focus on how to encourage sustainability of California's iconic coastal region.

Heat waves induce milkweed resistance to a specialist herbivore via increased toxicity and reduced nutrient content

Over the last decade, a large effort has been made to understand how extreme climate events disrupt species interactions. Yet, it is unclear how these events affect plants and herbivores directly, via metabolic changes, and indirectly, via their subsequent altered interaction. We exposed common milkweed (Asclepias syriaca) and monarch caterpillars (Danaus plexippus) to control (26:14°C, day:night) or heat wave (HW) conditions (36:24°C, day:night) for 4 days and then moved each organism to a new control or HW partner to disentangle the direct and indirect effects of heat exposure on each organism. We found that the HW directly benefited plants in terms of growth and defence expression (increased latex exudation and total cardenolides) and insect her'bivores through faster larval development. Conversely, indirect HW effects caused both plant latex and total cardenolides to decrease after subsequent herbivory. Nonetheless, increasing trends of more toxic cardenolides and lower leaf nutritional quality after herbivory by HW caterpillars likely led to reduced plant damage compared to controls. Our findings reveal that indirect impacts of HWs may play a greater role in shaping plant-herbivore interactions via changes in key physiological traits, providing valuable understanding of how ecological interactions may proceed in a changing world.

Resistance of an intertidal oyster(Saccostrea mordax)to marine heatwaves and the implication for reef building

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have a significant impact on intertidal bivalves and the ecosystems they sustain, causing the destruction of organisms' original habitats. Saccostrea mordax mainly inhabits the intertidal zone around the equator, exhibiting potential tolerance to high temperatures and maybe a species suitable for habitat restoration. However, an understanding about the tolerance mechanism of S. mordax to high temperatures is unclear. It is also unknown the extent to which S. mordax can tolerate repeated heatwaves of increasing intensity and frequency. Here, we simulated the effects of two scenarios of MHWs and measured the physiological and biochemical responses and gene expression spectrum of S. mordax. The predicted responses varied greatly across heatwaves, and no heatwave had a significant impact on the survival of S. mordax. Specifically, there were no statistically significant changes apparent in the standard metabolic rate and the activities of enzymes of the oyster during repeated heatwaves. S. mordax exposed to high-intensity heatwaves enhanced their standard metabolic rate to fuel essential physiological maintenance and increasing activity of SOD and expression of HSP70/90. These strategies are presumably at the expense of functions related to immunity and growth, as best exemplified by significant depressions in activities of enzymes (NaK, CaMg, T-ATP, and AKP) and expression levels of genes (Rab, eEF-2, HMGR, Rac1, SGK, Rab8, etc.). The performance status of S. mordax tends to improve by implementing a suite of less energy-costly compensatory mechanisms at various levels of biological organization when re-exposed to heatwaves. The adaptive abilities shown by S. mordax indicate that they can play a crucial role in the restoration of oyster reefs in tropical seas.

Northeast Pacific warm blobs sustained via extratropical atmospheric teleconnections

Large-scale marine heatwaves in the Northeast Pacific (NEP), identified here and previously as 'warm blobs', have devastating impacts on regional ecosystems. An anomalous atmospheric ridge over the NEP is known to be crucial for maintaining these warm blobs, also causing abnormally cold temperatures over North America during the cold season. Previous studies linked this ridge to teleconnections from tropical sea surface temperature anomalies. However, it was unclear whether teleconnections from the extratropics could also contribute to the ridge. Here we show that planetary wave trains, triggered by increased rainfall and latent heat release over the Mediterranean Sea accompanied by decreased rainfall over the North Atlantic, can transport wave energy to the NEP, guided by the westerly jet, and induce a quasi-barotropic ridge there. Our findings provide insights into extratropical teleconnections sustaining the NEP ridge, offering a source of potential predictability for the warm blobs and temperature fluctuations over North America.

Assessing combined effects of long-term exposure to copper and marine heatwaves on the reef-forming serpulid Ficopomatus enigmaticus through a biomarker approach

Sessile benthic organisms can be affected by global changes and local pressures, such as metal pollution, that can lead to damages at different levels of biological organization. Effects of exposure to marine heatwaves (MHWs) alone and in combination with environmentally relevant concentration of copper (Cu) were evaluated in the reef-forming tubeworm Ficopomatus enigmaticus using a multi-biomarker approach. Biomarkers of cell membrane damage, enzymatic antioxidant defences, metabolic activity, neurotoxicity, and DNA integrity were analyzed. The exposure to Cu alone did not produce any significant effect. Exposure to MHWs alone produced effects only on metabolic activity (increase of glutathione S-transferase) and energy reserves (decrease in protein content). MHWs in combination with copper was the condition that most influenced the status of cell homeostasis of exposed F. enigmaticus. The combination of MHWs plus Cu exposure induced increase of protein carbonylation and glutathione S-transferase activity, decrease in protein/carbohydrate content and carboxylesterase activity. This study on a reef-forming organism highlighted the additive effect of a climate change-related stressor to metals pollution of marine and brackish waters.

High temperature delays and low temperature accelerates evolution of a new protein phenotype

Since the origin of life, temperatures on earth have fluctuated both on short and long time scales. How such changes affect the rate at which Darwinian evolution can bring forth new phenotypes remains unclear. On the one hand, high temperature may accelerate phenotypic evolution because it accelerates most biological processes. On the other hand, it may slow phenotypic evolution, because proteins are usually less stable at high temperatures and therefore less evolvable. Here, to test these hypotheses experimentally, we evolved a green fluorescent protein in E. coli towards the new phenotype of yellow fluorescence at different temperatures. Yellow fluorescence evolved most slowly at high temperature and most rapidly at low temperature, in contradiction to the first hypothesis. Using high-throughput population sequencing, protein engineering, and biochemical assays, we determined that this is due to the protein-destabilizing effect of neofunctionalizing mutations. Destabilization is highly detrimental at high temperature, where neofunctionalizing mutations cannot be tolerated. Their detrimental effects can be mitigated through excess stability at low temperature, leading to accelerated adaptive evolution. By modifying protein folding stability, temperature alters the accessibility of mutational paths towards high-fitness genotypes. Our observations have broad implications for our understanding of how temperature changes affect evolutionary adaptations and innovations.

Persistence of fish populations to longer, more intense, and more frequent mass mortality events

Over the last decades, mass mortality events have become increasingly common across taxa with sometimes devastating effects on population biomass. In the aquatic environment, fish are sensitive to mass mortality events, particularly at the early life stages that are crucial for population dynamics. However, it has recently been shown for fish, that a single mass mortality event in early life typically does not lead to population collapse. Moreover, the frequency and intensity of extreme events that can cause mass mortality, such as marine heatwaves, are increasing. Here, we show that increasing frequency and intensity of mass mortality events may lead to population collapse. Since the drivers of mass mortality events are diverse, and often linked to climate change, it is challenging to predict the frequency and severity of future mass mortality events. As an alternative, we quantify the probability of population collapse depending on the frequency and intensity as well as the duration of mass mortality events. Based on 39 fish species, we show that the probability of collapse typically increases with increasing frequency, intensity, and duration of the mortality events. In addition, we show that the collapse depends on key traits such as natural mortality, recruitment variation, and density dependence. The presented framework provides quantitative estimates of the sensitivity of fish species to these increasingly common extreme events, which paves the way for potential mitigation actions to alleviate adverse impacts on harvested fish populations across the globe.

Marine heatwaves recurrence aggravates thermal stress in the surfgrass Phyllospadix scouleri

The surfgrass Phyllospadix scouleri grows in highly productive meadows along the Pacific coast of North America. This region has experienced increasingly severe marine heatwaves (MHWs) in recent years. Our study evaluated the impact of consecutive MHWs, simulated in mesocosms, on essential ecophysiological features of P. scouleri. Overall, our findings show that the plants' overall physiological status has been progressively declining. Interestingly, the indicators of physiological stress in photosynthesis only showed up once the initial heat exposure stopped (i.e., during the recovery period). The warming caused increased oxidative damage and a decrease in nitrate uptake rates. However, the levels of non-structural carbohydrates and relative growth rates were not affected. Our findings emphasize the significance of incorporating recovery periods in this type of study as they expose delayed stress responses. Furthermore, experiencing consecutive intense MHWs can harm surfgrasses over time, compromising the health of their meadows and the services they offer to the ecosystem.

Historical and future maximum sea surface temperatures

Marine heat waves affect ocean ecosystems and are expected to become more frequent and intense. Earth system models' ability to reproduce extreme ocean temperature statistics has not been tested quantitatively, making the reliability of their future projections of marine heat waves uncertain. We demonstrate that annual maxima of detrended anomalies in daily mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over 39 years of global satellite observations are described excellently by the generalized extreme value distribution. If models can reproduce the observed distribution of SST extremes, this increases confidence in their marine heat wave projections. 14 CMIP6 models' historical realizations reproduce the satellite-based distribution and its parameters' spatial patterns. We find that maximum ocean temperatures will become warmer (by 1.07° ± 0.17°C under 2°C warming and 2.04° ± 0.18°C under 3.2°C warming). These changes are mainly due to mean SST increases, slightly reinforced by SST seasonality increases. Our study quantifies ocean temperature extremes and gives confidence to model projections of marine heat waves.

A marine heatwave drives significant shifts in pelagic microbiology

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) cause disruption to marine ecosystems, deleteriously impacting macroflora and fauna. However, effects on microorganisms are relatively unknown despite ocean temperature being a major determinant of assemblage structure. Using data from thousands of Southern Hemisphere samples, we reveal that during an "unprecedented" 2015/16 Tasman Sea MHW, temperatures approached or surpassed the upper thermal boundary of many endemic taxa. Temperate microbial assemblages underwent a profound transition to niche states aligned with sites over 1000 km equatorward, adapting to higher temperatures and lower nutrient conditions bought on by the MHW. MHW conditions also modulate seasonal patterns of microbial diversity and support novel assemblage compositions. The most significant affects of MHWs on microbial assemblages occurred during warmer months, when temperatures exceeded the upper climatological bounds. Trends in microbial response across several MHWs in different locations suggest these are emergent properties of temperate ocean warming, which may facilitate monitoring, prediction and adaptation efforts.

On the persistence of near-surface temperature dynamics in a warming world

We consider issues related to the effect of climate change on the persistence of (trend-corrected) temperatures using global gridded data for both land and oceans. We first discuss how the presence of trends and additive noise affects inference about persistence. Ignoring a trend induces an upward bias, while not accounting for noise induces a downward bias. We show that the increase in persistence in the commonly used Warm Spell Duration Index is simply an artifact of increasing temperatures. To purge the impact of both trends and noise, we adopt a simple state-space model. Of separate interest, we document a much larger noise component for land than for oceans. The estimates of the persistence are much larger for oceans than for land. Inspection of the estimates across various subsamples and the application of tests for structural changes suggest the same pattern of persistence for both land and oceans across time, with few minor exceptions. Hence, our results show that surface temperature persistence has remained constant during the observed period.

Rapid climate change alters the environment and biological production of the Indian Ocean

We synthesize and review the impacts of climate change on the physical, chemical, and biological environments of the Indian Ocean and discuss mitigating actions and knowledge gaps. The most recent climate scenarios identify with high certainty that the Indian Ocean (IO) is experiencing one of the fastest surface warming among the world's oceans. The area of surface waters of >28 °C (IO Warm Pool) has significantly increased during 1982-2021 by expanding into the northern-central basins. A significant decrease in pH and aragonite (building blocks of calcified organisms) levels in the IO was observed from 1981-2020 due to an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. There are also signals of decreasing trends in primary productivity in the north, likely related to enhanced stratification and nutrient depletion. Further, the rapid warming of the IO will manifest more extreme weather conditions along its adjacent continents and oceans, including marine heat waves that are likely to reshape biodiversity. However, the impact of climate change beyond the unprecedented warming, increase in marine heat waves, expansion of the IO Warm Pool, and decrease in pH, remains uncertain for many other key variables in the IO including changes in salinity, oxygen, and net primary production. Understanding the response of these physical, chemical, and biological variables to climate change is vital to project future changes in regional fisheries and identify mitigation actions. We accordingly conclude by identifying knowledge gaps and recommending directions for sustainable fisheries and climate impact studies.

Molecular mechanisms that regulate the heat stress response in sea urchins (Strongylocentrotus intermedius) by comparative heat tolerance performance and whole-transcriptome RNA sequencing

In the context of climate change and extreme high temperature, the commercially important sea urchin Strongylocentrotus intermedius suffers high mortality during summer in Northern China. How sea urchins respond to high temperatures is of great concern to academia and industry. How to understand the heat tolerance of sea urchin from the whole transcriptome level. In this study, the heat-resistant S. intermedius bred by our team and its control group were used as the research objects, then we applied whole-transcriptome RNA sequencing to detect differentially expressed mRNAs, microRNAs, long noncoding RNAs that respond to heat stress in the heat-resistant and control S. intermedius. A competitive endogenous RNA (ceRNA) regulatory network was constructed with predicted pairs of differentially expressed mRNAs and noncoding RNAs and revealed the molecular regulatory mechanisms in S. intermedius responding to heat stress. A functional analysis suggested that the ceRNAs were involved in basal metabolism, calcium ion transport, endoplasmic reticulum stress, and apoptosis. This is the whole-transcriptomic analysis of S. intermedius under heat stress to propose ceRNA networks that will provide a basis for studying the potential functions of long noncoding RNAs and miRNAs in the heat stress response in S. intermedius and provide a theoretical basis for the study of the molecular mechanism of sea urchins in response to environmental changes.

Dominance of the coral Pocillopora acuta around Phuket Island in the Andaman Sea, Thailand

Pocillopora damicornis (Linnaeus, 1758), a species complex, consists of several genetic lineages, some of which likely represent reproductively isolated species, including the species Pocillopora acuta Lamarck, 1816. Pocillopora acuta can exhibit similar morphological characteristics as P. damicornis, thus making it difficult to identify species-level taxonomic units. To determine whether the P. damicornis-like colonies on the reefs in the Andaman Sea (previously often identified as P. damicornis) consist of different species, we sampled individual colonies at five sites along a 50 km coastal stretch at Phuket Island and four island sites towards Krabi Province, Thailand. We sequenced 210 coral samples for the mitochondrial open reading frame and identified six distinct haplotypes, all belonging to P. acuta according to the literature. Recently, P. acuta was observed to efficiently recolonize heat-damaged reefs in Thailand as well as globally, making it a potentially important coral species in future reefs. Specifically in the light of global change, this study underscores the importance of high-resolution molecular species recognition, since taxonomic units are important factors for population genetic studies, and the latter are crucial for management and conservation efforts.

Effects of heatwave events on the seagrass-dwelling crustacean Pandalus latirostris in a subarctic lagoon

Heatwaves often cause mass mortality of organisms in seagrass areas, and they eventually alter some ecological functions of seagrass ecosystems. In subarctic regions, however, the effects of heatwaves on seagrass areas are still unclear. In a subarctic lagoon of northern Japan, we examined the effects of heatwaves on the Hokkai shrimp, Pandalus latirostris, a commercially exploited species distributed in seagrass areas of northern Japan and eastern Russia. A long-term survey of the surface water temperature in the lagoon clarified a gradual increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwave events since 1999. Surveys of the water temperature at a seagrass area in the lagoon during summer have also demonstrated that the maximum water temperature had been exceeding 25 °C, unusually high for this location, regardless of water depth. These results indicate that the effects of heatwaves in seagrass areas in a subarctic region had become as severe as those in tropical and temperate regions. We also experimentally evaluated the effects of this unusually high water temperature (25 °C) on the survival of P. latirostris by changing the length of exposure time. Some individuals suffered damage to their intestinal mucosal structure after exposure for 12 h or longer, and all individuals died after exposure for 120 h. Our results suggest that heatwaves possibly cause mass mortality in P. latirostris in the following sequence: heat stress, damage to the intestinal epithelial mucosal structure, degradation of nutrient absorption and immunological function of the intestine, energy deficiency and disease infection, and finally mortality. This study, conducted in subarctic closed waters, concludes that it is essential to become familiar with not only trends in heatwaves but also the intermittent occurrence of unusually high water temperature in seagrass areas in order to better understand the process of mortality of organisms that inhabit these ecosystems.

A marine protected area network does not confer community structure resilience to a marine heatwave across coastal ecosystems

Marine protected areas (MPAs) have gained attention as a conservation tool for enhancing ecosystem resilience to climate change. However, empirical evidence explicitly linking MPAs to enhanced ecological resilience is limited and mixed. To better understand whether MPAs can buffer climate impacts, we tested the resistance and recovery of marine communities to the 2014-2016 Northeast Pacific heatwave in the largest scientifically designed MPA network in the world off the coast of California, United States. The network consists of 124 MPAs (48 no-take state marine reserves, and 76 partial-take or special regulation conservation areas) implemented at different times, with full implementation completed in 2012. We compared fish, benthic invertebrate, and macroalgal community structure inside and outside of 13 no-take MPAs across rocky intertidal, kelp forest, shallow reef, and deep reef nearshore habitats in California's Central Coast region from 2007 to 2020. We also explored whether MPA features, including age, size, depth, proportion rock, historic fishing pressure, habitat diversity and richness, connectivity, and fish biomass response ratios (proxy for ecological performance), conferred climate resilience for kelp forest and rocky intertidal habitats spanning 28 MPAs across the full network. Ecological communities dramatically shifted due to the marine heatwave across all four nearshore habitats, and MPAs did not facilitate habitat-wide resistance or recovery. Only in protected rocky intertidal habitats did community structure significantly resist marine heatwave impacts. Community shifts were associated with a pronounced decline in the relative proportion of cold water species and an increase in warm water species. MPA features did not explain resistance or recovery to the marine heatwave. Collectively, our findings suggest that MPAs have limited ability to mitigate the impacts of marine heatwaves on community structure. Given that mechanisms of resilience to climate perturbations are complex, there is a clear need to expand assessments of ecosystem-wide consequences resulting from acute climate-driven perturbations, and the potential role of regulatory protection in mitigating community structure changes.

The upper temperature and hypoxia limits of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) depend greatly on the method utilized

In this study, Atlantic salmon were: (i) implanted with heart rate (fH) data storage tags (DSTs), pharmacologically stimulated to maximum fH, and warmed at 10°C h-1 (i.e. tested using a 'rapid screening protocol'); (ii) fitted with Doppler® flow probes, recovered in respirometers and given a critical thermal maximum (CTmax) test at 2°C h-1; and (iii) implanted with fH DSTs, recovered in a tank with conspecifics for 4 weeks, and had their CTmax determined at 2°C h-1. Fish in respirometers and those free-swimming were also exposed to a stepwise decrease in water oxygen level (100% to 30% air saturation) to determine the oxygen level at which bradycardia occurred. Resting fH was much lower in free-swimming fish than in those in respirometers (∼49 versus 69 beats min-1) and this was reflected in their scope for fH (∼104 versus 71 beats min-1) and CTmax (27.7 versus 25.9°C). Further, the Arrhenius breakpoint temperature and temperature at peak fH for free-swimming fish were considerably greater than for those tested in the respirometers and given a rapid screening protocol (18.4, 18.1 and 14.6°C; and 26.5, 23.2 and 20.2°C, respectively). Finally, the oxygen level at which bradycardia occurred was significantly higher in free-swimming salmon than in those in respirometers (∼62% versus 53% air saturation). These results: highlight the limitations of some lab-based methods of determining fH parameters and thermal tolerance in fishes; and suggest that scope for fH may be a more reliable and predictive measure of a fish's upper thermal tolerance than their peak fH.

The first arriving virus shapes within-host viral diversity during natural epidemics

Viral diversity has been discovered across scales from host individuals to populations. However, the drivers of viral community assembly are still largely unknown. Within-host viral communities are formed through co-infections, where the interval between the arrival times of viruses may vary. Priority effects describe the timing and order in which species arrive in an environment, and how early colonizers impact subsequent community assembly. To study the effect of the first-arriving virus on subsequent infection patterns of five focal viruses, we set up a field experiment using naïve Plantago lanceolata plants as sentinels during a seasonal virus epidemic. Using joint species distribution modelling, we find both positive and negative effects of early season viral infection on late season viral colonization patterns. The direction of the effect depends on both the host genotype and which virus colonized the host early in the season. It is well established that co-occurring viruses may change the virulence and transmission of viral infections. However, our results show that priority effects may also play an important, previously unquantified role in viral community assembly. The assessment of these temporal dynamics within a community ecological framework will improve our ability to understand and predict viral diversity in natural systems.

Impacts of marine heatwaves on top predator distributions are variable but predictable

Marine heatwaves cause widespread environmental, biological, and socio-economic impacts, placing them at the forefront of 21st-century management challenges. However, heatwaves vary in intensity and evolution, and a paucity of information on how this variability impacts marine species limits our ability to proactively manage for these extreme events. Here, we model the effects of four recent heatwaves (2014, 2015, 2019, 2020) in the Northeastern Pacific on the distributions of 14 top predator species of ecological, cultural, and commercial importance. Predicted responses were highly variable across species and heatwaves, ranging from near total loss of habitat to a two-fold increase. Heatwaves rapidly altered political bio-geographies, with up to 10% of predicted habitat across all species shifting jurisdictions during individual heatwaves. The variability in predicted responses across species and heatwaves portends the need for novel management solutions that can rapidly respond to extreme climate events. As proof-of-concept, we developed an operational dynamic ocean management tool that predicts predator distributions and responses to extreme conditions in near real-time.

Physiological and biochemical responses of clams to recurrent marine heatwaves

In the past decade, the frequency, intensity and duration of marine heatwaves (MHWs) in the South China Sea have been increasing strikingly, resulting in serious impacts on intertidal bivalves and their ecosystems. The Manila clam, Ruditapes philippinarum, is one of the most ecologically and economically important bivalve species in the South China Sea, yet very little is known about its fate under intensifying MHWs events. Here, we examined how R. philippinarum responded to two consecutive scenarios of MHWs, with each composed of 4 °C and 8 °C rises of seawater temperatures, respectively. Up to 87% of Manila clams survived recurrent MHWs events, and significant increases in standard metabolic rate occurred predominantly under extreme conditions (+8 °C), indicating that the clams could trigger compensatory mechanisms to mitigate MHWs-induced thermal stress. Following acute and repeated exposures to MHWs, Manila clams showed similar responses in enzymes underpinning energy metabolism (NKA, CMA, and T-ATP), antioxidant defence (SOD, CAT, and MDA), and biomineralization (AKP and ACP), most of which exhibited significantly increasing and then decreasing trends with the intensification of MHWs. Of eight genes associated with physiological tolerance and fitness, ATAD3A, PFK, SOD, and C3 were significantly down-regulated in response to recurrent MHWs events, demonstrating the certain resistance to MHWs. These findings provide a better understanding that marine bivalves hold the potential to acclimate simulated MHWs events from the physiological and molecular processes.

Simulated upwelling and marine heatwave events promote similar growth rates but differential domoic acid toxicity in Pseudo-nitzschia australis

Along the west coast of the United States, highly toxic Pseudo-nitzschia blooms have been associated with two contrasting regional phenomena: seasonal upwelling and marine heatwaves. While upwelling delivers cool water rich in pCO2 and an abundance of macronutrients to the upper water column, marine heatwaves instead lead to warmer surface waters, low pCO2, and reduced nutrient availability. Understanding Pseudo-nitzschia dynamics under these two conditions is important for bloom forecasting and coastal management, yet the mechanisms driving toxic bloom formation during contrasting upwelling vs. heatwave conditions remain poorly understood. To gain a better understanding of what drives Pseudo-nitzschia australis growth and toxicity during these events, multiple-driver scenario or 'cluster' experiments were conducted using temperature, pCO2, and nutrient levels reflecting conditions during upwelling (13 °C, 900 ppm pCO2, replete nutrients) and two intensities of marine heatwaves (19 °C or 20.5 °C, 250 ppm pCO2, reduced macronutrients). While P. australis grew equally well under both heatwave and upwelling conditions, similar to what has been observed in the natural environment, cells were only toxic in the upwelling treatment. We also conducted single-driver experiments to gain a mechanistic understanding of which drivers most impact P. australis growth and toxicity. These experiments indicated that nitrogen concentration and N:P ratio were likely the drivers that most influenced domoic acid production, while the impacts of temperature or pCO2 concentration were less pronounced. Together, these experiments may help to provide both mechanistic and holistic perspectives on toxic P. australis blooms in the dynamic and changing coastal ocean, where cells interact simultaneously with multiple altered environmental variables.

Effects of basin-scale climate modes and upwelling on nearshore marine heatwaves and cold spells in the California Current

Marine heatwaves and cold spells (MHWs/MCSs) have been observed to be increasing globally in frequency and intensity based on satellite remote sensing and continue to pose a major threat to marine ecosystems worldwide. Despite this, there are limited in-situ based observational studies in the very shallow nearshore region, particularly in Eastern Boundary Current Upwelling Systems (EBUS). We analyzed a unique dataset collected in shallow waters along central California spanning more than four decades (1978-2020) and assessed links with basin-scale climate modes [Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño (MEI)] and regional-scale wind-driven upwelling. We found no significant increase/decrease in MHW/MCS frequency, duration, or intensity over the last four decades, but did observe considerable interannual variability linked with basin-scale climate modes. Additionally, there was a decrease in both MHW/MCS occurrence during the upwelling season, and the initiation of individual MHWs/MCSs coincided with anomalous upwelling. Most notably, the co-occurrence of warm (cold) phases of the PDO and MEI with negative (positive) upwelling anomalies strongly enhanced the relative frequency of positive (negative) temperature anomalies and MHW (MCS) days. Collectively, both basin-scale variability and upwelling forcing play a key role in predicting extreme events and shaping nearshore resilience in EBUS.

Surface and subsurface oceanographic features drive forage fish distributions and aggregations: Implications for prey availability to top predators in the US Northeast Shelf ecosystem

Forage fishes are a critical food web link in marine ecosystems, aggregating in a hierarchical patch structure over multiple spatial and temporal scales. Surface-level forage fish aggregations (FFAs) represent a concentrated source of prey available to surface- and shallow-foraging marine predators. Existing survey and analysis methods are often imperfect for studying forage fishes at scales appropriate to foraging predators, making it difficult to quantify predator-prey interactions. In many cases, general distributions of forage fish species are known; however, these may not represent surface-level prey availability to predators. Likewise, we lack an understanding of the oceanographic drivers of spatial patterns of prey aggregation and availability or forage fish community patterns. Specifically, we applied Bayesian joint species distribution models to bottom trawl survey data to assess species- and community-level forage fish distribution patterns across the US Northeast Continental Shelf (NES) ecosystem. Aerial digital surveys gathered data on surface FFAs at two project sites within the NES, which we used in a spatially explicit hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate the abundance and size of surface FFAs. We used these models to examine the oceanographic drivers of forage fish distributions and aggregations. Our results suggest that, in the NES, regions of high community species richness are spatially consistent with regions of high surface FFA abundance. Bathymetric depth drove both patterns, while subsurface features, such as mixed layer depth, primarily influenced aggregation behavior and surface features, such as sea surface temperature, sub-mesoscale eddies, and fronts influenced forage fish diversity. In combination, these models help quantify the availability of forage fishes to marine predators and represent a novel application of spatial models to aerial digital survey data.

The 2022 summer marine heatwaves and coral bleaching in China's Greater Bay Area

From July to August 2022, scleractinian coral communities in China's Greater Bay Area (GBA) in the northern South China Sea (nSCS) experienced an unprecedented bleaching event, despite the fact that coral communities in this area are often considered coral thermal refugia due to their high latitude distribution. Field surveys of six sites covering three main coral distribution areas of the GBA revealed that coral bleaching occurred at all sites. Bleaching was more severe in shallow water (1-3 m) than in deep water (4-6 m), as indicated by both percent bleached cover (51.80 ± 10.04% vs. 7.09 ± 7.37%) and bleached colonies (45.86 ± 11.22% vs. 6.58 ± 6.53%). Coral genera Acropora, Favites, Montipora, Platygyra, Pocillopora, and Porites showed high susceptibility to bleaching, and Acropora and Pocillopora suffered high post-bleaching mortality. In the three areas surveyed, analysis of oceanographic data detected marine heatwaves (MHWs) during the summer, with mean intensities between 1.62 and 1.97 °C and durations between 5 and 22 days. These MHWs were primarily driven by increased shortwave radiation due to strong western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), combined with reduced mixing between the surface and deep upwelling waters due to reduced wind speed. Comparing with histological oceanographic data showed that the 2022 MHWs were unprecedented, and there was a significant increase in the frequency, intensity, and total days of MHWs during 1982-2022. Furthermore, the heterogeneous distribution of summer MHW characteristics indicates that the coastal upwelling may modulate the spatial distribution of summer MHWs in nSCS through its cooling effect. Overall, our study indicates that MHWs may have affected the structure of the subtropical coral communities in the nSCS, and impaired their potential as thermal refugia.

Coral adaptive capacity insufficient to halt global transition of coral reefs into net erosion under climate change

Projecting the effects of climate change on net reef calcium carbonate production is critical to understanding the future impacts on ecosystem function, but prior estimates have not included corals' natural adaptive capacity to such change. Here we estimate how the ability of symbionts to evolve tolerance to heat stress, or for coral hosts to shuffle to favourable symbionts, and their combination, may influence responses to the combined impacts of ocean warming and acidification under three representative concentration pathway (RCP) emissions scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We show that symbiont evolution and shuffling, both individually and when combined, favours persistent positive net reef calcium carbonate production. However, our projections of future net calcium carbonate production (NCCP) under climate change vary both spatially and by RCP. For example, 19%-35% of modelled coral reefs are still projected to have net positive NCCP by 2050 if symbionts can evolve increased thermal tolerance, depending on the RCP. Without symbiont adaptive capacity, the number of coral reefs with positive NCCP drops to 9%-13% by 2050. Accounting for both symbiont evolution and shuffling, we project median positive NCPP of coral reefs will still occur under low greenhouse emissions (RCP2.6) in the Indian Ocean, and even under moderate emissions (RCP4.5) in the Pacific Ocean. However, adaptive capacity will be insufficient to halt the transition of coral reefs globally into erosion by 2050 under severe emissions scenarios (RCP8.5).

Oceanic mesoscale eddies as crucial drivers of global marine heatwaves

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are prolonged extreme warm water events in the ocean, exerting devastating impacts on marine ecosystems. A comprehensive knowledge of physical processes controlling MHW life cycles is pivotal to improve MHW forecast capacity, yet it is still lacking. Here, we use a historical simulation from a global eddy-resolving climate model with improved representation of MHWs, and show that heat flux convergence by oceanic mesoscale eddies acts as a dominant driver of MHW life cycles over most parts of the global ocean. In particular, the mesoscale eddies make an important contribution to growth and decay of MHWs, whose characteristic spatial scale is comparable or even larger than that of mesoscale eddies. The effect of mesoscale eddies is spatially heterogeneous, becoming more dominant in the western boundary currents and their extensions, the Southern Ocean, as well as the eastern boundary upwelling systems. This study reveals the crucial role of mesoscale eddies in controlling the global MHW life cycles and highlights that using eddy-resolving ocean models is essential, albeit not necessarily fully sufficient, for accurate MHW forecasts.

Heat stress, especially when coupled with high light, accelerates the decline of tropical seagrass (Enhalus acoroides) meadows

Heat stress threatens the survival of seagrass, but its damage mechanisms are unclear. In this study, the results reveal that heat stress exceeding 36 °C in the dark caused inactivation of the PSII reaction center, damaging both the PSII donor and acceptor sides in Enhalus acoroides. High light further increased the damage to the photosynthetic apparatus under heat stress. The stronger the heat stress under high light, the harder the recovery of photosynthetic activity. Therefore, during ebb tide at noon in nature, heat stress combined with strong light would induce a significant, even irreversible decrease in photosynthetic activity. Moreover, the heat stress hindered the transcription of psbA and RuBisCO, enhanced respiratory O₂, and induced severe peroxidation even if the SOD, APX, and GPX activities significantly improved. The results clearly suggest that heat stress, especially when coupled with high light, may be an important cause for the decline of E. acoroides meadows.

Heatwave restructures marine intertidal communities across a stress gradient

Significant questions remain about how ecosystems that are structured by abiotic stress will be affected by climate change. Warmer temperatures are hypothesized to shift species along abiotic gradients such that distributions track changing environments where physical conditions allow. However, community-scale impacts of extreme warming in heterogeneous landscapes are likely to be more complex. We investigated the impacts of a multiyear marine heatwave on intertidal community dynamics and zonation on a wave-swept rocky coastline along the Central Coast of British Columbia, Canada. Leveraging an 8-year time series with high seaweed taxonomic resolution (116 taxa) that was established 3 years prior to the heatwave, we document major shifts in zonation and abundance of populations that led to substantial reorganization at the community level. The heatwave was associated with shifts in primary production away from upper elevations through declines in seaweed cover and partial replacement by invertebrates. At low elevations, seaweed cover remained stable or recovered rapidly following decline, being balanced by increases in some species and decreases in others. These results illustrate that, rather than shifting community zonation uniformly along abiotic stress gradients, intense and lasting warming events may restructure patterns of ecological dominance and reduce total habitability of ecosystems, especially at extreme ends of pre-existing abiotic gradients.

Oceanic differences in coral-bleaching responses to marine heatwaves

Anomalously high ocean temperatures have increased in frequency, intensity, and duration over the last several decades because of greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming and marine heatwaves. Reef-building corals are sensitive to such temperature anomalies that commonly lead to coral bleaching, mortality, and changes in community structure. Yet, despite these overarching effects, there are geographical differences in thermal regimes, evolutionary histories, and past disturbances that may lead to different bleaching responses of corals within and among oceans. Here we examined the overall bleaching responses of corals in the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Oceans, using both a spatially explicit Bayesian mixed-effects model and a deep-learning neural-network model. We used a 40-year global dataset encompassing 23,288 coral-reef surveys at 11,058 sites in 88 countries, from 1980 to 2020. Focusing on ocean-wide differences we assessed the relationships between the percentage of bleached corals and different temperature-related metrics alongside a suite of environmental variables. We found that while high sea-surface temperatures were consistently, and strongly, related to coral bleaching within all oceans, there were clear geographical differences in the relationships between coral bleaching and most environmental variables. For instance, there was an increase in coral bleaching with depth in the Atlantic Ocean whereas the opposite was observed in the Indian Ocean, and no clear trend could be seen in the Pacific Ocean. The standard deviation of thermal-stress anomalies was negatively related to coral bleaching in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, but not in the Indian Ocean. Globally, coral bleaching has progressively occurred at higher temperatures over the last four decades within the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Oceans, although, again, there were differences among the three oceans. Together, such patterns highlight that historical circumstances and geographical differences in oceanographic conditions play a central role in contemporary coral-bleaching responses.

Thermal tolerance limits and physiological traits as indicators of Hediste diversicolor's acclimation capacity to global and local change drivers

Global projections predict significant increases in ocean temperature and changes in ocean chemistry, including salinity variations by 2100. This has led to a substantial interest in the study of thermal ecophysiology, as temperature is a major factor shaping marine ectotherm communities. However, responses to temperature may be influenced by other factors such as salinity, highlighting the relevance of multiple stressor studies. In the present work, we experimentally evaluated the thermal tolerance of the marine ragworm Hediste diversicolor under predicted global change scenarios. Organisms were subjected to an experimental trial under control (24 °C), and two temperature treatment scenarios (ocean warming +3 °C - (27 °C) and heat wave +6 °C - (30 °C)), combined with salinity variations (20 and 30) in a full factorial design for 29 days. Environmental data from the field were collected during 2019 and 2020. At day 30 post exposure, upper thermal limits (Critical Thermal Maximum - CTMax), thermal safety margins (TSM) and acclimation capacity were measured. Higher acclimation temperatures led to higher thermal tolerance limits, confirming that H. diversicolor features some physiological plasticity, acclimation capacity and a positive thermal safety margin. This margin was greater considering in situ temperature data from 2019 than maximum temperatures for 2020 (CTMax > maximum habitat temperature-MHT). Moreover, smaller organisms displayed higher upper thermal limits suggesting that thermal tolerance is size dependent. Ragworms subjected to higher salinity also showed a higher CTMax than those acclimated to lower salinity. However, temperature and salinity showed an additive effect on CTMax, as no significant interaction was detected. We conclude that H. diversicolor can easily acclimate to increased water temperature, independently of salinity variations. Given the key role of ragworms in food webs in estuaries and coastal lagoons, substrate bioturbation and aquaculture, this information is relevant to support conservation actions, optimize culture protocols and identify thermal resistant strains.

A quantitative analysis of marine heatwaves in response to rising sea surface temperature

It has been proven that marine heatwaves (MHWs) have increased in frequency, duration, and intensity over the past few decades, and this trend will accelerate further under continued global warming. While more intense and frequent MHWs are an expected consequence of rising sea surface temperatures (SSTs) under continued global warming, it remains unclear to what degree per Celsius warming trend of SSTs contributes to the changes in the MHW metrics. Here, we focus on how the MHW metrics evolve with the SST warming trend by using an adaptive data analysis method based on observational datasets covering the past four decades. We find that the globally averaged increasing rates of the annual MHW frequency, duration, and maximum intensity are approximately 3.7 events, 7.5 days, and 2.2° Celsius per degree Celsius of SST rise, respectively. The increasing rates for the annual MHW days and the fraction of the spatial extents to the global ocean affected by MHWs are approximately 58.8 days and 13.9 % per degree Celsius of SST rise, respectively. Based on these observational-based increasing rates and the projected SST warming from the selected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models, the spatial distributions of changes in annual MHW days, frequency, and cumulative intensity are projected to exhibit 2-fold, 4-fold, and 6 to 8-fold increases under the three socioeconomic pathways (i.e., SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585), respectively. The globally averaged annual MHW days will increase to approximately 224.2 ± 26.9 days, and the largest changes are projected to occur in the northeast Pacific, the North Atlantic, the south Indian Oceans, and parts of the Southern Ocean, with approximately 14.8 ± 5.7 % of the global ocean reaching a permanent MHW state by the end of the twenty-first century under SSP585.

Spatiotemporal variability characteristics of extreme climate events in Xinjiang during 1960-2019

Under the global warming, it is particularly important to explore the response of extreme climate to global climate change over the arid regions. Based on daily temperature (maximum, minimum, and average) and precipitation data from meteorological stations in Xinjiang, China, we analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme temperature and extreme precipitation events via combining thin plate smoothing spline function interpolation, Sen's slope, and Mann-Kendall test. Our results showed that during 1960-2019, the extreme low temperature index of frost days (FD), icing days (ID), cold days (TX10p), cold nights (TN10p), and cold speel duration index (CSDI) all showed the downward trend to varying degrees, and the extreme high temperature index of summer days (SD25), warm days (TX90p), warm night (TN90p), and warm speel duration index (WSDI) all showed an upward trend to varying degrees, and the extreme low temperature index of high altitude mountains decreases more than that of the basin and plains. In addition, all the extreme temperature indices are closely related to the annual average temperature in Xinjiang (R > 0.6). Among the extreme precipitation indices, except for the consecutive dry days (CDD), the other extreme precipitation indices showed increasing trends to different degrees, but the changes in extreme precipitation in Xinjiang were mainly manifested by the increase of heavy precipitation in a short period (the increase of heavy precipitation and extreme heavy precipitation was the largest, 44.8 mm/10a and 17.6 mm/10a, respectively) and spatially concentrated in the Ili River and Altai Mountains in northern Xinjiang. Meanwhile, annual precipitation was positively correlated with the extreme precipitation index (R > 0.4), except for the CDD. This study provides theoretical support for the prevention and control of natural disasters in the dry zone.

Warming Affects Bioconcentration and Bioaccumulation of Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances by Pelagic and Benthic Organisms in a Water-Sediment System

Warming and exposure to emerging global pollutants, such as per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), are significant stressors in the aquatic ecosystem. However, little is known about the warming effect on the bioaccumulation of PFAS in aquatic organisms. In this study, the pelagic organisms Daphnia magna and zebrafish, and the benthic organism Chironomus plumosus were exposed to 13 PFAS in a sediment-water system with a known amount of each PFAS at different temperatures (16, 20, and 24 °C). The results showed that the steady-state body burden (C_b-ss) of PFAS in pelagic organisms increased with increasing temperatures, mainly attributed to increased water concentrations. The uptake rate constant (k_u) and elimination rate constant (k_e) in pelagic organisms increased with increasing temperature. In contrast, warming did not significantly change or even mitigate C_b-ss of PFAS in the benthic organism Chironomus plumosus, except for PFPeA and PFHpA, which was consistent with declined sediment concentrations. The mitigation could be explained by the decreased bioaccumulation factor due to a more significant percent increase in k_e than k_u, especially for long-chain PFAS. This study suggests that the warming effect on the PFAS concentration varies among different media, which should be considered for their ecological risk assessment under climate change.

Future temperature extremes threaten land vertebrates

The frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme thermal events are increasing and are projected to further increase by the end of the century^1,2. Despite the considerable consequences of temperature extremes on biological systems^3-8, we do not know which species and locations are most exposed worldwide. Here we provide a global assessment of land vertebrates' exposures to future extreme thermal events. We use daily maximum temperature data from 1950 to 2099 to quantify future exposure to high frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme thermal events to land vertebrates. Under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5 (SSP5-8.5); 4.4 °C warmer world), 41.0% of all land vertebrates (31.1% mammals, 25.8% birds, 55.5% amphibians and 51.0% reptiles) will be exposed to extreme thermal events beyond their historical levels in at least half their distribution by 2099. Under intermediate-high (SSP3-7.0; 3.6 °C warmer world) and intermediate (SSP2-4.5; 2.7 °C warmer world) emission scenarios, estimates for all vertebrates are 28.8% and 15.1%, respectively. Importantly, a low-emission future (SSP1-2.6, 1.8 °C warmer world) will greatly reduce the overall exposure of vertebrates (6.1% of species) and can fully prevent exposure in many species assemblages. Mid-latitude assemblages (desert, shrubland, and grassland biomes), rather than tropics^9,10, will face the most severe exposure to future extreme thermal events. By 2099, under SSP5-8.5, on average 3,773 species of land vertebrates (11.2%) will face extreme thermal events for more than half a year period. Overall, future extreme thermal events will force many species and assemblages into constant severe thermal stress. Deep greenhouse gas emissions cuts are urgently needed to limit species' exposure to thermal extremes.

A novel expert-driven methodology to develop thermal response curves and project habitat thermal suitability for cetaceans under a changing climate

Over the last decades, global warming has contributed to changes in marine species composition, abundance and distribution, in response to changes in oceanographic conditions such as temperature, acidification, and deoxygenation. Experimentally derived thermal limits, which are known to be related to observed latitudinal ranges, have been used to assess variations in species distribution patterns. However, such experiments cannot be undertaken on free-swimming large marine predators with wide-range distribution, like cetaceans. An alternative approach is to elicit expert's knowledge to derive species' thermal suitability and assess their thermal responses, something that has never been tested in these taxa. We developed and applied a methodology based on expert-derived thermal suitability curves and projected future responses for several species under different climate scenarios. We tested this approach with ten cetacean species currently present in the biogeographic area of Macaronesia (North Atlantic) under Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, until 2050. Overall, increases in annual thermal suitability were found for Balaenoptera edeni, Globicephala macrorhynchus, Mesoplodon densirostris, Physeter macrocephalus, Stenella frontalis, Tursiops truncatus and Ziphius cavirostris. Conversely, our results indicated a decline in thermal suitability for B. physalus, Delphinus delphis, and Grampus griseus. Our study reveals potential responses in cetaceans' thermal suitability, and potentially in other highly mobile and large predators, and it tests this method's applicability, which is a novel application for this purpose and group of species. It aims to be a cost-efficient tool to support conservation managers and practitioners.

Increase in the extent of mass coral bleaching over the past half-century, based on an updated global database

The recurrence of mass coral bleaching and associated coral mortality in the past few decades have raised questions about the future of coral reef ecosystems. Although coral bleaching is well studied, our understanding of the spatial extent of bleaching events continues to be limited by geographical biases in data collection. To address this gap, we updated a previous observational database and spatially modelled the probability of past bleaching occurrence. First, an existing raw observational database was updated to cover the 1963-2017 period using searches of the academic and grey literature and outreach to coral reef monitoring organizations. Then, in order to provide spatially-explicit global coverage, we employed indicator kriging to spatially model the probability of bleaching occurrence each year from 1985 through 2017 at 0.05° x 0.05° lat-long resolution. The updated raw database has 37,774 observations, including 22,650 positive bleaching reports, three times that in the previous version. The spatial interpolation suggests that 71% of the world's coral reefs likely (>66% probability) experienced bleaching at least once during the 1985 and 2017 period. The mean probability of bleaching across all reefs globally was 29-45% in the most severe bleaching years of 1998, 2005, 2010 and 2016. Modelled bleaching probabilities were positively related with annual maximum Degree Heating Weeks (DHW), a measure of thermal stress, across all years (p<0.001), and in each global bleaching event (p<0.01). In addition, the annual maximum DHW of reef cells that very likely (>90% probability) experienced bleaching increased over time at three times the rate of all reef cells, suggesting a possible increase in reef thermal tolerance. The raw and spatially interpolated databases can be used by other researchers to enhance real-time predictions, calibrate models for future projections, and assess the change in coral reef response to thermal stress over time.

Estimating the CO2 emissions of Chinese cities from 2011 to 2020 based on SPNN-GNNWR

Global warming is a serious threat to human survival and health. Facing increasing global warming, the issue of CO₂ emissions has attracted more attention. China is a major contributor of anthropogenic CO₂ emissions and so it is essential to accurately estimate China's CO₂ emissions and analyze their changing characteristics. This study recalculates CO₂ emissions from Chinese cities from 2011 to 2020 using the SPNN-GNNWR model and multiple factors to reduce the uncertainty in emission estimates. The SPNN-GNNWR model has excellent predictions (R²: 0.925, 10-fold CV R²: 0.822) when cross-validation is used. The results indicate that the total CO2 emissions in China calculated by the model are close to those accounted for by other authorities in the world, with the total CO₂ emissions increasing from 9.122 billion tonnes in 2011 to 9.912 billion tonnes in 2020. The city with the largest increase in CO₂ emissions is Tianjin, and the city with the largest decrease is Beijing. The study also reveals the regional differences in CO₂ emissions in Chinese mainland, including emissions, emission intensity and per capita emissions. Capturing and understanding the emissions and the related socioeconomic characteristics of different cities can help to develop effective emission mitigation strategies.

Biological Impacts of Marine Heatwaves

Climatic extremes are becoming increasingly common against a background trend of global warming. In the oceans, marine heatwaves (MHWs)-discrete periods of anomalously warm water-have intensified and become more frequent over the past century, impacting the integrity of marine ecosystems globally. We review and synthesize current understanding of MHW impacts at the individual, population, and community levels. We then examine how these impacts affect broader ecosystem services and discuss the current state of research on biological impacts of MHWs. Finally, we explore current and emergent approaches to predicting the occurrence andimpacts of future events, along with adaptation and management approaches. With further increases in intensity and frequency projected for coming decades, MHWs are emerging as pervasive stressors to marine ecosystems globally. A deeper mechanistic understanding of their biological impacts is needed to better predict and adapt to increased MHW activity in the Anthropocene.

The effect of environmental stressors on growth in fish and its endocrine control

Fish body growth is a trait of major importance for individual survival and reproduction. It has implications in population, ecology, and evolution. Somatic growth is controlled by the GH/IGF endocrine axis and is influenced by nutrition, feeding, and reproductive-regulating hormones as well as abiotic factors such as temperature, oxygen levels, and salinity. Global climate change and anthropogenic pollutants will modify environmental conditions affecting directly or indirectly fish growth performance. In the present review, we offer an overview of somatic growth and its interplay with the feeding regulatory axis and summarize the effects of global warming and the main anthropogenic pollutants on these endocrine axes.

Responses of digestive metabolism to marine heatwaves in pearl oysters

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have increased in intensity and frequency in global oceans, causing deleterious effects on many marine organisms and ecosystems they support. Bivalves are among the most vulnerable taxonomic groups to intensifying MHWs, yet little is known about the underlying mechanisms. Here, we investigated the impact of MHWs on the digestive metabolism of pearl oysters (Pinctada maxima). Two moderate and severe scenarios of MHWs were performed by increasing seawater temperature respectively from 24 °C to 28 °C and 32 °C for 3 days. When subjected to MHWs and with increasing intensity, pearl oysters significantly enhanced their digestive enzymatic activities, such as lipase and amylase. LC-MS-based metabolomics revealed negative responses in the lipid metabolism (e.g., steroid biosynthesis, glycerophospholipid metabolism, and sphingolipid metabolism), the amino acid metabolism (e.g., glutamate, histidine, arginine, and proline), and the B-vitamins metabolism. These findings indicate that the digestive metabolism of marine bivalves can likely succumb to intensifying MHWs events.

Self-Assembled Nanoscale Manganese Oxides Enhance Carbon Capture by Diatoms

Continuous CO₂ emissions from human activities increase atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and affect global climate change. The carbon storage capacity of the ocean is 20-fold higher than that of the land, and diatoms contribute to approximately 40% of carbon capture in the ocean. Manganese (Mn) is a major driver of marine phytoplankton growth and the marine carbon pump. Here, we discovered self-assembled manganese oxides (MnO_x) for CO₂ fixation in a diatom-based biohybrid system. MnO_x shared key features (e.g., di-μ-oxo-bridged Mn-Mn) with the Mn₄CaO₅ cluster of the biological catalyst in photosystem II and promoted photosynthesis and carbon capture by diatoms/MnO_x. The CO₂ capture capacity of diatoms/MnO_x was 1.5-fold higher than that of diatoms alone. Diatoms/MnO_x easily allocated carbon into proteins and lipids instead of carbohydrates. Metabolomics showed that the contents of several metabolites (e.g., lysine and inositol) were positively associated with increased CO₂ capture. Diatoms/MnO_x upregulated six genes encoding photosynthesis core proteins and a key rate-limiting enzyme (Rubisco, ribulose 1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase-oxygenase) in the Calvin-Benson-Bassham carbon assimilation cycle, revealing the link between MnO_x and photosynthesis. These findings provide a route for offsetting anthropogenic CO₂ emissions and inspiration for self-assembled biohybrid systems for carbon capture by marine phytoplankton.

An increase in marine heatwaves without significant changes in surface ocean temperature variability

Marine heatwaves (MHWs)-extremely warm, persistent sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies causing substantial ecological and economic consequences-have increased worldwide in recent decades. Concurrent increases in global temperatures suggest that climate change impacted MHW occurrences, beyond random changes arising from natural internal variability. Moreover, the long-term SST warming trend was not constant but instead had more rapid warming in recent decades. Here we show that this nonlinear trend can-on its own-appear to increase SST variance and hence MHW frequency. Using a Linear Inverse Model to separate climate change contributions to SST means and internal variability, both in observations and CMIP6 historical simulations, we find that most MHW increases resulted from regional mean climate trends that alone increased the probability of SSTs exceeding a MHW threshold. Our results suggest the need to carefully attribute global warming-induced changes in climate extremes, which may not always reflect underlying changes in variability.

Marine heatwaves of differing intensities lead to distinct patterns in seafloor functioning

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are increasing in frequency and intensity due to climate change. Several well-documented effects of heatwaves on community structure exist, but examples of their effect on functioning of species, communities or ecosystems remain scarce. We tested the effects of short-term, moderate and strong MHWs on macrofauna bioturbation and associated solute fluxes as examples of ecosystem functioning. We also measured macrofaunal excretion rates to assess effects of temperature on macrofauna metabolism. For this experiment, we used unmanipulated sediment cores with natural animal communities collected from a muddy location at 32 m depth in the northern Baltic Sea. Despite the mechanistic effect of bioturbation remaining unchanged between the treatments, there were significant differences in oxygen consumption, solute fluxes and excretion. Biogeochemical and biological processes were boosted by the moderate heatwave, whereas biogeochemical cycling seemed to decrease under a strong heatwave. A prolonged, moderate heatwave could possibly lead to resource depletion if primary production cannot meet the demands of benthic consumption. By contrast, decreased degradation activities under strong heatwaves could lead to a build-up of organic material and potentially hypoxia. The strong variability and the complexity of the response highlight the context dependency of these processes complicating future predictions.

Spatiotemporal variability of the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea marine heatwaves during 1982-2020

For the first time, this study explored the dominant features of Marine HeatWaves (MHWs) in the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea (1982-2020). The spatial extent of MHWs has nearly doubled in the last 24 years. Since 1997, the average number of MHW days in the central parts of the Persian Gulf has increased about 19 times compared to the period 1982-1997. The average number of the detected MHW events has increased by about three times. Simultaneously with the increase in MHWs frequency trend, the trend in the average number of MHW days has also increased. Since 1997, the average number of MHW days in the study area has almost increased by 10 times. The mean duration of the detected MHWs ranged from 5 to10 days. On average, in a major part of the Persian Gulf, about 1-2 MHW events occur annually.

Life history adaptations to fluctuating environments: Combined effects of demographic buffering and lability

Demographic buffering and lability have been identified as adaptive strategies to optimise fitness in a fluctuating environment. These are not mutually exclusive, however, we lack efficient methods to measure their relative importance for a given life history. Here, we decompose the stochastic growth rate (fitness) into components arising from nonlinear responses and variance-covariance of demographic parameters to an environmental driver, which allows studying joint effects of buffering and lability. We apply this decomposition for 154 animal matrix population models under different scenarios to explore how these main fitness components vary across life histories. Faster-living species appear more responsive to environmental fluctuations, either positively or negatively. They have the highest potential for strong adaptive demographic lability, while demographic buffering is a main strategy in slow-living species. Our decomposition provides a comprehensive framework to study how organisms adapt to variability through buffering and lability, and to predict species responses to climate change.

Prevalence and mechanisms of environmental hyperoxia-induced thermal tolerance in fishes

Recent evidence has suggested environmental hyperoxia (O₂ supersaturation) can boost cardiorespiratory performance in aquatic ectotherms, thereby increasing resilience to extreme heat waves associated with climate change. Here, using rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) as a model species, we analysed whether improved cardiorespiratory performance can explain the increased thermal tolerance of fish in hyperoxia (200% air saturation). Moreover, we collated available literature data to assess the prevalence and magnitude of hyperoxia-induced thermal tolerance across fish species. During acute warming, O₂ consumption rate was substantially elevated under hyperoxia relative to normoxia beyond 23°C. This was partly driven by higher cardiac output resulting from improved cardiac contractility. Notably, hyperoxia mitigated the rise in plasma lactate at temperatures approaching upper limits and elevated the critical thermal maximum (+0.87°C). Together, these findings show, at least in rainbow trout, that hyperoxia-induced thermal tolerance results from expanded tissue O₂ supply capacity driven by enhanced cardiac performance. We show 50% of the fishes so far examined have increased critical thermal limits in hyperoxia (range: 0.4-1.8°C). This finding indicates environmental hyperoxia could improve the ability of a large number of fishes to cope with extreme acute warming, thereby increasing resilience to extreme heat wave events resulting from climate change.

Alongshore upwelling modulates the intensity of marine heatwaves in a temperate coastal sea

Analyses of long-term temperature records based on satellite data have revealed an increase in the frequency and intensity of marine heatwaves (MHWs) in the world oceans, a trend directly associated with global change according to climate model simulations. However, these analyses often target open ocean pelagic systems and rarely include local scale, field temperature records that are more adequate to assess the impact of MHWs close to the land-sea interface. Here, we compared the incidence and characteristics of open ocean MHWs detected by satellites with those observed in the field over two decades (1998-2019) at two temperate intertidal locations in the central Cantabrian Sea, southern Bay of Biscay. Satellite retrievals tended to smooth out cooling events associated with intermittent, alongshore upwelling, especially during summer. These biases propagated to the characterization of MHWs and resulted in an overestimation of their incidence and duration close to the coast. To reconcile satellite and field records, we developed a downscaling approach based on regression modeling that enabled the reconstruction of past temperatures and analyze MHW trends. Despite the cooling effect due to upwelling, the temperature reconstructions revealed a six-fold increase in the incidence of MHWs in the Cantabrian Sea over the last four decades. A comparison between static (no trend) vs. dynamic (featuring a linear warming trend) MHW detection thresholds allowed us to attribute over half of the increase in MHW incidence to the ocean warming trend. Our results highlight the importance of local processes to fully characterize the complexity and impacts of MHWs on marine coastal ecosystems and call for the conservation of climate refugia associated with coastal upwelling to counter the impacts of climate warming.