Vaccine waning and mumps re-emergence in the United States

Modeling the population-level impact of a third dose of MMR vaccine on a mumps outbreak at the University of Iowa

Mumps outbreaks among fully vaccinated young adults have raised questions about potential waning of immunity over time and need for a third dose of the measles, mumps, rubella (MMR) vaccine. However, there are currently limited data on real-life effectiveness of the third-dose MMR vaccine in preventing mumps. Here, we used a deterministic compartmental model to infer the effectiveness of the third-dose MMR vaccine in preventing mumps cases by analyzing the mumps outbreak that occurred at the University of Iowa between August 24, 2015, and May 13, 2016. The modeling approach further allowed us to evaluate the population-level impact of vaccination by different timing in relation to the start of the outbreak and varied coverage levels, and to account for potential sources of bias in estimating vaccine effectiveness. We found large uncertainty in vaccine effectiveness estimates; however, our models showed that early introduction of a third dose of MMR vaccine during a mumps outbreak can be effective in preventing transmission. School holidays, such as the winter break, likely played important roles in preventing mumps transmission.

Social vs. individual age-dependent costs of imperfect vaccination

In diseases with long-term immunity, vaccination is known to increase the average age at infection as a result of the decrease in the pathogen circulation. This implies that a vaccination campaign can have negative effects when a disease is more costly (financial or health-related costs) for higher ages. This work considers an age-structured population transmission model with imperfect vaccination. We aim to compare the social and individual costs of vaccination, assuming that disease costs are age-dependent, while the disease's dynamic is age-independent. A model for pathogen deterministic dynamics in a population consisting of juveniles and adults, assumed to be rational agents, is introduced. The parameter region for which vaccination has a positive social impact is fully characterized and the Nash equilibrium of the vaccination game is obtained. Finally, collective strategies designed to promote voluntary vaccination, without compromising social welfare, are discussed.

Questionable Immunity to Mumps among Healthcare Workers in Italy-A Cross-Sectional Serological Study

Highly contagious diseases, such as mumps, are a global concern as new epidemics continue to emerge, even in highly vaccinated populations. The risk of transmission and spread of these viruses is even higher for individuals who are more likely to be exposed, including healthcare workers (HCWs). In healthcare settings, both HCWs and patients are at risk of infection during the care process, potentially leading to nosocomial epidemic outbreaks. Mumps is often underestimated compared with measles and rubella, despite being milder and less likely to spread. In fact, the risk of complications following mumps infection is extremely high, especially if the disease occurs in adulthood. The measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine has been shown to be an excellent preventive measure. Unfortunately, the mumps component appears to be less effective in inducing immunity than those for measles and rubella (two-dose effectiveness of 85%, 95% and 97%, respectively). The main aim of our study was to investigate the prevalence of detectable mumps antibodies (serum IgG antibodies) in a cohort of Italian and foreign HCWs in relation to personal and occupational factors. We included in the study 468 subjects who underwent health surveillance at the Occupational Medicine Unit of the Tor Vergata Polyclinic in Rome during the period from January 2021 to March 2023. In our study, the proportion of HCWs found to be unprotected against mumps was very high (8.3%), and those found to be immune are below the WHO threshold for herd immunity (95%). From our data, it seems essential that all occupational health services carry out an accurate screening with a dose of anti-mumps antibodies to assess serological protection before starting a job, regardless of an individual's vaccination history. This approach is proving to be beneficial, accurate, as it allows all serologically non-immune individuals to be vaccinated in the workplace, including those who would be protected by their vaccination history but have lost the antibody response.

What is the relevancy of a surveillance of mumps without a systematic laboratory confirmation in highly immunized populations? Epidemiology of suspected and biologically confirmed mumps cases seen in general practice in France between 2014 and 2020

BACKGROUND

In France, mumps surveillance is conducted in primary care by the Sentinelles network, the National Reference Centre for Measles, Mumps and Rubella and Santé publique France.

AIM

The objective of this study was to estimate the incidence of suspected mumps in general practice, the proportion of laboratory confirmed cases and the factors associated with a virological confirmation.

METHODS

General practitioners (GPs) participating in the Sentinelles network should report all patients with suspected mumps according to a clinical definition in case of parotitis and a serological definition in case of clinical expression without parotitis. All suspected mumps cases reported between January 2014 and December 2020 were included. A sample of these cases were tested by real time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) for mumps biological confirmation.

RESULTS

A total of 252 individuals with suspected mumps were included in the study. The average annual incidence rate of suspected mumps in general practice in France between 2014 and 2020 was estimated at 11 cases per 100,000 population [CI95%: 6-17]. A mumps confirmation RT-PCR test was performed on 146 cases amongst which 17 (11.5 %) were positive. Age (between 20 and 29 years old), the presence of a clinical complication and an exposure to a suspected mumps case within the 21 days prior the current episode were associated with a mumps biological confirmation.

CONCLUSION

If these results confirm the circulation of mumps virus in France, they highlight the limits of a surveillance without a systematic laboratory confirmation in highly immunized populations.

Safety analysis of a live attenuated mumps vaccine in healthy adolescents in China: A phase 4, observational, open-label trial

Mumps is an acute infectious disease, which was well controlled in the past, but recently it has resurged in some areas. This study aimed to evaluate the safety profile of the live attenuated mumps vaccine after large-scale vaccination. We conducted an observational, open-label phase 4 trial in Shaanxi, China from October 2020 to March 2021. Eligible participants were freshmen of junior high school who were not above 14 years old. Adverse events following immunization (AEFI) monitoring was carried out by active and passive surveillance. Safety follow-ups were conducted during the study participation. Overall, 10057 subjects were enrolled in the active surveillance analysis. A total of 214 subjects reported adverse reactions with an incidence of 2.13% (214/10057). Most adverse reactions were grade 1, and the incidence of grade 1 adverse reactions was 1.44% (145/10057); 0.60% for grade 2 (60/10057); and 0.09% for grade 3 (9/10057). The majority of adverse reactions were solicited (1.73%, 174/10057). Injection-site pain was the most frequently reported local adverse reaction (0.71%, 71/10057), followed by redness (0.29%, 29/10057). The most common systemic adverse reactions were nausea (0.19%, 19/10057) and fever (0.16%, 16/10057). For passive AEFI surveillance, 57 AEFI cases were reported, with an incidence of 19.28/100000 (57/287608). And most AEFI cases were common adverse reactions (66.67%, 38/57). In total, the live attenuated mumps vaccine evaluated in this trial has a favorable safety profile and can be used for large-scale inoculation.

Bartonella infections are prevalent in rodents despite efficient immune responses

BACKGROUND

Pathogens face strong selection from host immune responses, yet many host populations support pervasive pathogen populations. We investigated this puzzle in a model system of Bartonella and rodents from Israel's northwestern Negev Desert. We chose to study this system because, in this region, 75-100% of rodents are infected with Bartonella at any given time, despite an efficient immunological response. In this region, Bartonella species circulate in three rodent species, and we tested the hypothesis that at least one of these hosts exhibits a waning immune response to Bartonella, which allows reinfections.

METHODS

We inoculated captive animals of all three rodent species with the same Bartonella strain, and we quantified the bacterial dynamics and Bartonella-specific immunoglobulin G antibody kinetics over a period of 139 days after the primary inoculation, and then for 60 days following reinoculation with the same strain.

RESULTS

Contrary to our hypothesis, we found a strong, long-lasting immunoglobulin G antibody response, with protective immunological memory in all three rodent species. That response prevented reinfection upon exposure of the rodents to the same Bartonella strain.

CONCLUSIONS

This study constitutes an initial step toward understanding how the interplay between traits of Bartonella and their hosts influences the epidemiological dynamics of these pathogens in nature.

Mumps epidemic dynamics in the United States before vaccination (1923-1932)

Mumps is a vaccine-preventable, reemerging, and highly transmissible infectious disease. Widespread vaccination dramatically reduced cases; however, case counts have been increasing over the past 20 years. To provide a quantitative overview of historical mumps dynamics that can act as baseline information to help identify causes of mumps reemergence, we analyzed timeseries of cases reported from 1923 to 1932 in the United States. During that time, 239,230 mumps cases were reported in 70 cities. Larger cities reported annual epidemics and smaller cities reported intermittent, sporadic outbreaks. The critical community size above which transmission continuously occurred was likely between 365,583 and 781,188 individuals but could range as high as 3,376,438 individuals. Mumps cases increased as city size increased, suggesting density-dependent transmission. Using a density-dependent SEIR model, we calculated a mean effective reproductive number (Re) of 1.2. Re varied by city and over time, with periodic high values that could characterize short periods of very high transmission known as superspreading events. Case counts most often peaked in March, with higher-than-average transmission from December through April and showed a correlation with weekly births. While certain city pairs in Midwestern states had synchronous outbreaks, most outbreaks were less synchronous and not driven by distance between cities. This work demonstrates the importance of long-term infectious disease surveillance data and will inform future studies on mumps reemergence and control.

Disentangling the causes of mumps reemergence in the United States

Over the past two decades, multiple countries with high vaccine coverage have experienced resurgent outbreaks of mumps. Worryingly, in these countries, a high proportion of cases have been among those who have completed the recommended vaccination schedule, raising alarm about the effectiveness of existing vaccines. Two putative mechanisms of vaccine failure have been proposed as driving observed trends: 1) gradual waning of vaccine-derived immunity (necessitating additional booster doses) and 2) the introduction of novel viral genotypes capable of evading vaccinal immunity. Focusing on the United States, we conduct statistical likelihood-based hypothesis testing using a mechanistic transmission model on age-structured epidemiological, demographic, and vaccine uptake time series data. We find that the data are most consistent with the waning hypothesis and estimate that 32.8% (32%, 33.5%) of individuals lose vaccine-derived immunity by age 18 y. Furthermore, we show using our transmission model how waning vaccine immunity reproduces qualitative and quantitatively consistent features of epidemiological data, namely 1) the shift in mumps incidence toward older individuals, 2) the recent recurrence of mumps outbreaks, and 3) the high proportion of mumps cases among previously vaccinated individuals.

Improved Immunogenicity of the Inactivated F Genotype Mumps Vaccine against Diverse Circulating Mumps Viruses in Mice

Mumps is an acute infectious disease caused by the mumps virus (MuV). Despite high global vaccination coverage, mumps outbreaks continue to occur, even in vaccinated populations. Therefore, we aimed to identify candidate vaccines that can induce an immunogenic response against diverse MuV genotypes with greater efficacy than the currently available options. Vaccine candidates were sourced using formalin-inactivated viral strains. The inactivated vaccines were administered to BALB/c mice (through a primer and booster dose administered after a three-week interval). We tested the neutralizing antibodies of the candidate vaccines against various MuV genotypes to determine their overall efficacy. The formalin-inactivated F genotype vaccine was found to have higher cross-neutralizing titers against genotypes F, H, and G as well as significant Th1 cytokines responses, IFN-γ, TNF-α, and IL-2 than the Jeryl Lynn (JL) vaccine. Our findings suggest that the inactivated F genotype mumps vaccine has higher immunogenicity than the JL vaccine against diverse circulating MuVs.

Mumps-specific IgG, IgG subclasses and neutralization titres to the vaccine and outbreak mumps strains differ in vaccinated healthy controls, breakthrough mumps infection cases and naturally infected individuals

BACKGROUND

Despite widespread use of the mumps vaccine resulting in significant reduction in the incidence of symptomatic mumps infection, large outbreaks continue to occur in highly vaccinated populations.

OBJECTIVES

We examined the mumps-specific IgG, IgG subclasses and neutralization titres to the outbreak Genotype G5 and Jeryl Lynn vaccine (Genotype A) mumps strains.

STUDY DESIGN

Sera from 207 individuals were classified into five distinct cohorts: healthy controls and mumps cases of 5-17 years and 18-25 years, and naturally infected individuals of 50+ years. Mumps specific IgG and IgG subclass levels were measured using modified ELISA assays with lysates and nucleoprotein antigens from both the mumps vaccine and circulating Genotype G5 strains. All sera were investigated for in vitro neutralizing antibody titres (GMT) using focus reduction neutralization assays. Data was analysed using the Kruskal-Wallis test and pairwise Wilcoxon tests.

RESULTS

Mumps cases had higher mumps IgG levels compared to controls, to both the vaccine and outbreak strains, however levels decreased with age. Mumps IgG3 levels were significantly raised in mumps cases (p < 0.001). Neutralization titres were lower to the outbreak strain in all cohorts with titres markedly lower in the mumps cohorts compared to healthy controls. Mean GMT to the vaccine strain increased with age. The naturally infected group displayed the highest GMT to the JL vaccine and the lowest GMT to the outbreak strain.

CONCLUSIONS

Antigenic differences between mumps vaccine strain and circulating mumps viruses decrease the cross-neutralization capacity of vaccine-induced antibodies which may play a role in breakthrough infection.

Mumps serological surveillance following 10 years of a one-dose mumps-containing-vaccine policy in Fujian Province, China

BACKGROUND

Since 2008, Fujian province provided measles-rubella (MR) vaccine at 8 months followed by measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine at 18 months a one-dose mumps-containing-vaccine (MuCV) schedule. Several mumps outbreaks have occurred recently in Fujian. Serological surveillance can assess population immunity to mumps and identify risk factors for mumps.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional serosurvey of mumps IgG antibodies in the general population of Fujian Province in 2018 and compare results with a similar study conducted in 2009, when the routine schedule had no MuCV. We analyzed changes in mumps epidemiology after implementation of a one-dose MuCV vaccination strategy.

RESULTS

Mumps seroprevalence was 78.6% (95% CI: 77.4-79.8), and the geometric mean concentration (GMC) of mumps antibodies was 245.8 IU/ml (95% CI:237.3-255.1). MuCV vaccination at 18 months resulted in increased seroprevalence and GMCs. Seroprevalence and GMCs varied by age, gender, and number of doses received. Except for children under 18 months, seroprevalence and GMCs were lowest among 10-15-year-olds. Each year after introduction of the one-dose MuCV vaccination policy, the highest incidence of mumps was among 4-6-year-olds and 9-15-year-olds, gradually shifting to older age groups.

CONCLUSION

A one-dose mumps-containing vaccine schedule does not provide sustained and stable mumps immunity in Fujian. To reduce the risk of mumps, we recommend supplementary vaccination of children without a history of receiving at least one MuCV dose or who are seronegative at 10-15 years of age.

Assessment of mumps-containing vaccine effectiveness by dose during 2006 to 2020 in Quzhou, China

Mumps cases were reported frequently when a routine dose measles-mumps-rubella(MMR) achieved high coverage in Quzhou. The supplementary immunization activities (SIA) using measles mumps (MM) was conducted to control mumps outbreaks. The effectiveness of one and two doses of mumps-containing vaccine (MuCV) was assessed using surveillance data in this study. Mumps cases and immunization information were retrieved from the National Notifiable Disease Reporting System (NNDRS) and the Zhejiang Provincial Immunization Information System (ZJIIS), respectively. Mumps cases of children born from 2006 to 2010 were included. Vaccine effectiveness by dose was calculated using the screening method. A total of 956 mumps cases were identified, of whom 754 (78.9%) had received one dose of MuCV; 108 (11.3%) had received two doses; 94 (9.8%) were unvaccinated. The coverage of one-dose MuCV in the 2006-2010 birth cohorts ranged from 91.6% to 98.9%. Except the 2009 birth cohort in which the coverage of two doses of MuCV was 55.1%, the others were less than 10%. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) of one dose ranged from 47.4% to 86.0%, while VE of two doses ranged from 64.0% to 92.4%. The VE of one and two doses of MuCV waned over time, but the VE of two doses was consistently higher than that of one dose in the same period. The vaccine schedule with two-dose MMR should be implemented among children in Quzhou. The optimal age for the second dose needs to be further evaluated.

Exploring the Mumps Virus Glycoproteins: A Review

The resurgence of mumps in vaccinated adult populations has raised concerns about possible waning vaccine immunity or a potential lack of protection to the circulating strain. A number of individual studies have investigated if there are amino acid variations between the circulating wild-type strains and vaccine strains. In these studies, the HN and F mumps surface glycoproteins have been of interest, because of their role in viral infection, and because the HN protein is the target of neutralizing antibodies. Here, we summarize the single nucleotide variants and their potential effect that have been identified between mumps genotypes in the HN and F proteins.

Comparison of a chemiluminescence immunoassay and an enzyme immunoassay for detection of IgM antibodies against measles, mumps, rubella, cytomegalovirus (CMV), Epstein Barr virus (EBV), and human herpes virus (HHV) -1 and -2 infections

PURPOSE

Outbreaks of vaccine-preventable viral diseases have been increasingly reported globally over the past few years. The burden of congenital viral infections, their impact on physical and mental development and the resulting economic loss to the family and the community are also well known. IgM antibody detection has been convenient in the diagnosis of acute viral infections, particularly in settings with limited resources where molecular tests are not feasible.

METHODS

This is a comparative study between a chemiluminescence immunoassay (Liaison, DiaSorin, Saluggia, Italy) and an enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) (Euroimmun, Lubeck, Germany) for the detection of IgM antibody against measles, mumps, rubella, CMV, EBV and HHV-1 and -2 viruses using a total of 345 samples. Results are expressed as agreement using kappa statistics.

RESULTS

In this study, CLIA is perfectly comparable to ELISA for the detection of IgM antibodies against measles (0.86) and mumps (0.92) with a moderate agreement for rubella (0.52), CMV (0.57), EBV (0.50), and HHV-1 and -2 (0.47) assays. However, a PABAK (prevalence-adjusted bias-adjusted kappa) showed improved agreement for rubella (0.64), CMV (0.65), EBV (0.60), and HHV-1 and -2 (0.88) assays.

CONCLUSIONS

IgM antibody assays (CLIA and ELISA) against measles and mumps virus can be comparably used depending on the laboratory setup, throughput and expertise.

Impact of vaccine effectiveness and coverage on preventing large mumps outbreaks on college campuses: Implications for vaccination strategy

Recent mumps outbreaks among highly vaccinated populations, including college students, have called into question the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of routine two-dose measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR2) immunization. We aimed to estimate the VE required for a novel vaccination strategy (e.g., MMR booster dose, novel vaccine) to prevent large mumps outbreaks on college campuses. Using mumps college outbreak data reported to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention during 2016-2017, we estimated current MMR2 VE using the screening method and implemented a compartmental model of mumps transmission. We performed 2000 outbreak simulations, following introduction of an infectious person to a population of 10,000, over ranges of MMR2 vaccine coverage (VC) and VE (30.0-99.0%). We compared the impact of varying VC and VE on mumps and mumps orchitis case counts and determined VE thresholds that ensured < 5.0% and < 2.0% of the outbreak simulations exceeded 20 and 100 mumps cases. Median estimated MMR2 VE in reported mumps outbreaks was 60.5% and median reported MMR2 VC was 97.5%. Simulated mumps case count was more sensitive to changes in VE than in VC. The opposite was true for simulated mumps orchitis case count, though orchitis case count was small (mean <10 cases across simulations for VE near 60.5% and VC near 97.5%). At 97.5% VC, 73.1% and 78.2% VE were required for < 5.0% and < 2.0% of outbreaks, respectively, to exceed 100 mumps cases. Maintaining 97.5% VC, 82.4% and 85.9% VE were required for < 5.0% and < 2.0% of outbreaks, respectively, to exceed 20 cases. We conclude that maintaining current levels of MMR2 VC, a novel vaccination strategy aimed at reducing mumps transmission must achieve at least 73.1-85.9% VE among young adults to prevent large mumps outbreaks on college campuses.

Immunological heterogeneity informs estimation of the durability of vaccine protection

Deciphering the properties of vaccines against an emerging pathogen is essential for optimizing immunization strategies. Early after vaccine roll-out, however, uncertainties about vaccine immunity raise the question of how much time is needed to estimate these properties, particularly the durability of vaccine protection. Here we designed a simulation study, based on a generic transmission model of vaccination, to simulate the impact of a breadth of vaccines with different mean (range: 10 months-2 years) and variability (coefficient of variation range: 50-100%) of the duration of protection. Focusing on the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in the year after start of mass immunization in Germany as a case study, we then assessed how confidently the duration of protection could be estimated under a range of epidemiological scenarios. We found that lower mean and higher heterogeneity facilitated estimation of the duration of vaccine protection. Across the vaccines tested, rapid waning and high heterogeneity permitted complete identification of the duration of protection; by contrast, slow waning and low heterogeneity allowed only estimation of the fraction of vaccinees with rapid loss of immunity. These findings suggest that limited epidemiological data can inform the duration of vaccine immunity. More generally, they highlight the need to carefully consider immunological heterogeneity when designing transmission models to evaluate vaccines.

Immunogenicity of Mumps Virus Genotype G Vaccine Candidates in Jeryl Lynn-Immunized Mice

Mumps virus (MuV) causes a highly contagious human disease characterized by the enlargement of the parotid glands. In severe cases, mumps can lead to neurological complications such as aseptic meningitis and encephalitis. Vaccination with the attenuated Jeryl Lynn (JL) MuV vaccine has dramatically reduced the incidence of MuV infection. Recently, large outbreaks have occurred in vaccinated populations. The vaccine strain JL was generated from genotype A, while most current circulating strains belong to genotype G. In this study, we examined the immunogenicity and longevity of genotype G-based vaccines. We found that our recombinant genotype G-based vaccines provide robust neutralizing titers toward genotype G for up to 1 year in mice. In addition, we demonstrated that a third dose of a genotype G-based vaccine following two doses of JL immunization significantly increases neutralizing titers toward the genotype G strain. Our data suggest that after two doses of JL vaccination, which most people have received, a third dose of a genotype G-based vaccine can generate immunity against a genotype G strain. IMPORTANCE At present, most individuals have received two doses of the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine, which contains genotype A mumps vaccine. One hurdle in developing a new mumps vaccine against circulating genotype G virus is whether the new genotype G vaccine can generate immunity in humans that are immunized against genotype A virus. This work demonstrates that a novel genotype G-based vaccine can be effective in animals which received two doses of genotype A-based vaccine, suggesting that the lead genotype G vaccine may induce anti-G immunity in humans who have received two doses of the current vaccine, providing support for testing this vaccine in humans.

Etiological and epidemiological features of acute meningitis or encephalitis in China: a nationwide active surveillance study

BACKGROUND

Acute meningitis or encephalitis (AME) results from a neurological infection causing high case fatality and severe sequelae. AME lacked comprehensive surveillance in China.

METHODS

Nation-wide surveillance of all-age patients with AME syndromes was conducted in 144 sentinel hospitals of 29 provinces in China. Eleven AME-causative viral and bacterial pathogens were tested with multiple diagnostic methods.

FINDINGS

Between 2009 and 2018, 20,454 AME patients were recruited for tests. Based on 9,079 patients with all-four-virus tested, 28.43% (95% CI: 27.50%‒29.36%) of them had at least one virus-positive detection. Enterovirus was the most frequently determined virus in children <18 years, herpes simplex virus and Japanese encephalitis virus were the most frequently determined in 18-59 and ≥60 years age groups, respectively. Based on 6,802 patients with all-seven-bacteria tested, 4.43% (95% CI: 3.94%‒4.91%) had at least one bacteria-positive detection, Streptococcus pneumoniae and Neisseria meningitidis were the leading bacterium in children aged <5 years and 5-17 years, respectively. Staphylococcus aureus was the most frequently detected in adults aged 18-59 and ≥60 years. The pathogen spectrum also differed statistically significantly between northern and southern China. Joinpoint analysis revealed age-specific positive rates, with enterovirus, herpes simplex virus and mumps virus peaking at 3-6 years old, while Japanese encephalitis virus peaked in the ≥60 years old. As age increased, the positive rate for Streptococcus pneumoniae and Escherichia coli statistically significantly decreased, while for Staphylococcus aureus and Streptococcus suis it increased.

INTERPRETATION

The current findings allow enhanced identification of the predominant AME-related pathogen candidates for diagnosis in clinical practice and more targeted application of prevention and control measures in China, and a possible reassessment of vaccination strategy.

FUNDING

China Mega-Project on Infectious Disease Prevention and the National Natural Science Funds.

SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections in vaccinated individuals: measurement, causes and impact

Breakthrough infections with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in fully vaccinated individuals are receiving intense scrutiny because of their importance in determining how long restrictions to control virus transmission will need to remain in place in highly vaccinated populations as well as in determining the need for additional vaccine doses or changes to the vaccine formulations and/or dosing intervals. Measurement of breakthrough infections is challenging outside of randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind field trials. However, laboratory and observational studies are necessary to understand the impact of waning immunity, viral variants and other determinants of changing vaccine effectiveness against various levels of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) severity. Here, we describe the approaches being used to measure vaccine effectiveness and provide a synthesis of the burgeoning literature on the determinants of vaccine effectiveness and breakthrough rates. We argue that, rather than trying to tease apart the contributions of factors such as age, viral variants and time since vaccination, the rates of breakthrough infection are best seen as a consequence of the level of immunity at any moment in an individual, the variant to which that individual is exposed and the severity of disease being considered. We also address key open questions concerning the transition to endemicity, the potential need for altered vaccine formulations to track viral variants, the need to identify immune correlates of protection, and the public health challenges of using various tools to counter breakthrough infections, including boosters in an era of global vaccine shortages.

Containing the spread of mumps on college campuses

College campuses are vulnerable to infectious disease outbreaks, and there is an urgent need to develop better strategies to mitigate their size and duration, particularly as educational institutions around the world adapt to in-person instruction during the COVID-19 pandemic. Towards addressing this need, we applied a stochastic compartmental model to quantify the impact of university-level responses to contain a mumps outbreak at Harvard University in 2016. We used our model to determine which containment interventions were most effective and study alternative scenarios without and with earlier interventions. This model allows for stochastic variation in small populations, missing or unobserved case data and changes in disease transmission rates post-intervention. The results suggest that control measures implemented by the University's Health Services, including rapid isolation of suspected cases, were very effective at containing the outbreak. Without those measures, the outbreak could have been four times larger. More generally, we conclude that universities should apply (i) diagnostic protocols that address false negatives from molecular tests and (ii) strict quarantine policies to contain the spread of easily transmissible infectious diseases such as mumps among their students. This modelling approach could be applied to data from other outbreaks in college campuses and similar small population settings.

Mumps virus-specific immune response outcomes and sex-based differences in a cohort of healthy adolescents

Despite high levels of MMR-II usage in the US, mumps outbreaks continue to occur. Evidence suggests that mumps vaccine-induced humoral immunity wanes over time. Relatively few studies have examined cell-mediated immunity or reported on sex-based differences. To better understand sex-based differences in the immune response to mumps vaccine, we measured neutralizing antibody titers and mumps-specific cytokine/chemokine responses in a cohort of 748 adolescents and young adults after two doses of MMR vaccine. We observed significantly higher neutralizing antibody titers in females than in males (120.8 IU/mL, 98.7 IU/mL, p = 0.038) but significantly higher secretion levels of MIP-1α, MIP-1β, TNFα, IL-6, IFNγ, and IL-1β in males compared to females. These data demonstrate that sex influences mumps-specific humoral and cell-mediated immune response outcomes, a phenomenon that should be considered during efforts to improve vaccines and prevent future outbreaks.

Impact of an accelerated measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine schedule on vaccine coverage: An ecological study among London children, 2012-2018

BACKGROUND

Vaccination coverage of dose two of MMR (MMR2) at 5th birthday has been consistently low in London and measured 76.3% in 2018/19. Since the early 2000s seven boroughs in London started offering dose two earlier, from 15 to 18 months onwards instead of the recommended 3 years 4 months. In this study we investigate whether the accelerated schedule of MMR2 leads to a change in coverage of MMR2 and other childhood vaccines with an ecological study using childhood immunisation data from 2009 to 2018 in London.

METHODS

We modelled coverage used generalized estimating equations (GEE) adjusted for year and DTaP/IPV/Hib3 coverage measured at 2nd birthday as a proxy for baseline local vaccination programme performance to determine the percentage point difference in coverage of MMR2 and other childhood vaccines.

RESULTS

Average MMR2 coverage was higher among early implementing boroughs from 2012/13 onwards. Coverage difference was highest in 2017/18 (9.2 percentage points, 95% CI 4.8, 13.5, p < 0.001). On average over the 6 years, compared to London boroughs on the routine schedule, MMR2 coverage among early implementing boroughs was 3.3 percentage points higher (95% CI 1.3, 5.3, p = 0.01) after adjusting for DTaP/IPV/Hib3 coverage, IMD score and year.

CONCLUSION

Earlier vaccination of MMR2 is associated with significantly higher coverage at five years for this vaccine in London. Further research is needed to assess the association at a more granular level, but our findings underline a potential opportunity to increase MMR coverage.

Mumps in Vaccinated Children and Adolescents: 2007-2019

BACKGROUND

Despite a >99% reduction in US mumps cases after the introduction of mumps vaccine in 1967, outbreaks have occurred in schools and other settings involving vaccinated children and adolescents since 2006.

METHODS

We analyzed mumps cases reported by US health departments to the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System. We present the incidence and vaccination status of pediatric cases (age <18 years) during 2007-2019 and describe demographic, clinical, and vaccination characteristics of pediatric cases reported during the most recent resurgence in 2015-2019.

RESULTS

During 2007-2019, 9172 pediatric cases were reported, accounting for a median of 32% of all cases reported each year (range: 13%-59%). A median of 87% (range: 81%-94%) of pediatric patients each year had previously received ≥1 measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine dose. During 2015-2019, of 5461 pediatric cases reported, only 2% of those with known import status (74%) were associated with international travel. One percent of patients had complications and 2% were hospitalized. Among patients aged ≥1 year with known vaccination status (72%), 74% of 1- to 4-year-olds had received ≥1 MMR dose and 86% of 5- to 17-year-olds had received ≥2 MMR doses. Since 2016, pediatric mumps cases have been reported in most US states each year (range: 38-45 states).

CONCLUSIONS

Since 2007, one-third of US reported mumps cases occurred in children and adolescents, the majority of whom were vaccinated. Clinicians should suspect mumps in patients with parotitis or mumps complications, regardless of age, travel history, and vaccination status.

Introduction of Two-Dose Mumps-Containing Vaccine into Routine Immunization Schedule in Quzhou, China, Using Cox-Proportional Hazard Model

Mumps is a vaccine-preventable disease caused by the mumps virus, but the incidence of mumps has increased among the children who were vaccinated with one-dose measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) in recent years. In this study, we analyzed the influence of different doses of mumps-containing vaccine (MuCV) against mumps using Cox-proportional hazard model. We collected 909 mumps cases of children who were born from 2006 to 2010 and vaccinated with different doses of MuCV in Quzhou during 2006-2018, which were all clinically diagnosed. Kaplan-Meier survival methods and Cox-proportional hazard model were used to estimate the hazard probabilities. Kaplan-Meier curves showed that the cumulative hazard of male and female has no difference; lower hazards were detected among those who were vaccinated with two-dose MuCV, born in 2006, and infected after supplementary immunization activities (SIA). Cox-proportional hazard regression suggested that onset after SIA, born in 2006, and vaccinated with two-dose MuCV were protective factors against infection even after adjusting for potential confounding effects. Our study showed that it was necessary to revise the diagnostic criteria of mumps and identify RT-PCR as the standard for mumps diagnosis in China. We suggested that routine immunization schedule should introduce two doses of MMR and prevaccination screening should be performed before booster immunization in vaccinated populations.

Screening Identifies Suboptimal Vaccination Protection in Illness-Susceptible Elite Athletes

OBJECTIVE

Some groups of elite athletes have an apparent increased susceptibility to respiratory tract infection (RTI) with implications for their health and athletic performance. In this study, we aim to systemically evaluate vaccine response patterns as a potentially efficacious intervention strategy in elite athletes preparing for Olympic competition.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional observational study.

SETTING

A UK Sport-funded Olympic training program.

PATIENTS

One hundred twenty elite athletes and 10 matched healthy controls were studied. A subset of athletes were classified as RTI highly susceptible (n = 22), RTI nonsusceptible (n = 23), and asthmatic (n = 33), with matched controls also recruited (n = 10, 27 ± 3 years).

INTERVENTIONS/OUTCOME MEASURE

Serum samples were analysed from participants analysing enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for Immunoglobulin G (IgG) responses against measles, mumps, rubella, and pneumococcus vaccines.

RESULTS

Although a majority of athletes (>90%) had detectable IgG levels against measles and rubella, only 76% had detectable mumps responses, with similar findings apparent in controls. Of those RTI-susceptible and asthmatic athletes, 22% had suboptimal antipneumococcal responses below 30 mg/L.

CONCLUSION

A significant proportion of elite athletes preparing for Olympic competition seem to be at risk of mumps infection. In addition, RTI-susceptible and asthmatic athletes exhibit suboptimal pneumococcal antibody responses, highlighting a need for prospective immune screening in athletes to ensure vaccination strategies are effectively delivered.

The incidence of mumps in Taiwan and its association with the meteorological parameters: An observational study

Mumps is an acute and common childhood disease caused by paramyxovirus. It has been reported that the occurrence of mumps is influenced by seasonality. However, the role of meteorological variables in the incidence of mumps remains unclear. The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of mumps infection. Poisson regression analysis was used to study the relationship between weather variability and the incidence of mumps in Taiwan. Between 2012 and 2018, 5459 cases of mumps cases were reported to the Centers for Disease Control, Taiwan (Taiwan CDC). The occurrence of mumps virus infections revealed significant seasonality in the spring and summer seasons in Taiwan. The incidence of mumps virus infections began to increase at temperatures of 15°C and started to decline if the temperature was higher than 29°C (r2 = 0.387, P = .008). Similarly, the number of mumps cases began to increase at a relative humidity of 65% to 69% (r2 = 0.838, P < .029). The number of mumps cases was positively associated with temperature and relative humidity during the period preceding the infection. This study showed that the occurrence of mumps is significantly associated with increasing temperature and relative humidity in Taiwan. Therefore, these factors could be regarded as early warning signals and indicate the need to strengthen the intervention and prevention of mumps.

Nonparametric estimation of recursive point processes with application to mumps in Pennsylvania

The self-exciting Hawkes point process model (Hawkes, 1971) has been used to describe and forecast communicable diseases. A variant of the Hawkes model, called the recursive model, was proposed by Schoenberg et al. (2019) and has been shown to fit well to various epidemic disease datasets. Unlike the Hawkes model, the recursive model allows the productivity to vary as the overall rate of incidence of the disease varies. Here, we extend the data-driven nonparametric expectation-maximization method of Marsan and Lengliné (2008) in order to fit the recursive model without assuming a particular functional form for the productivity. The nonparametric recursive model is trained to fit to weekly reported cases of mumps in Pennsylvania during the January 1970-September 1990 time frame and then assessed using one week forecasts for the October 1990-December 2001 time period. Both its training and predictive ability are evaluated compared to that of other candidate models, such as Hawkes and SVEILR (susceptible, vaccinated, exposed, infected, lightly infected, recovered) compartmental models.

Estimating the Transmissibility of Mumps: A Modelling Study in Wuhan City, China

Despite the adoption of a national immunization program in China, the incidence of mumps remains high. This study aimed to describe the epidemiological characteristics, including the time, region, occupation, and age, of mumps in Wuhan from 2005 to 2018 and to evaluate its transmissibility. In this study, the susceptible-exposed-infectious-asymptomatic-recovered (SEIAR) model fitted the actual incidence data of mumps. The effective reproduction number (R t ) was used to evaluate and compare the transmission capacity in different areas. From 2005 to 2018, there were 36,415 cases. The incidence of mumps was highest among people aged 5-10 years (460.02 per 100,000). The SEIAR model fitted the reported mumps data well (P < 0.01). The median transmissibility (R t ) was 1.04 (range = 0-2.50). There were two peak spreads every year (from March to May and from October to December). The R t peak always appeared in the first 2 months of the peak incidence rate. The peak time of the epidemic spread of mumps was 1-2 months earlier than the peak incidence rate. The prevention and control measures of vaccination for children aged 5-10 years should be taken before the peak transmission capacity each year, 2 months before the peak of the outbreak, to reduce the spread of mumps.

Measles, mumps, rubella prevention: how can we do better?

INTRODUCTION

Measles, mumps, and rubella incidence decreased drastically following vaccination programs' implementation. However, measles and mumps' resurgence was recently reported, outbreaks still occur, and challenges remain to control these diseases.

AREAS COVERED

This qualitative narrative review provides an objective appraisal of the literature regarding current challenges in controlling measles, mumps, rubella infections, and interventions to address them.

EXPERT OPINION

While vaccines against measles, mumps, and rubella (including trivalent vaccines) are widely used and effective, challenges to control these diseases are mainly related to insufficient immunization coverage and changing vaccination needs owing to new global environment (e.g. traveling, migration, population density). By understanding disease transmission peculiarities by setting, initiatives are needed to optimize vaccination policies and increase vaccination coverage, which was further negatively impacted by COVID-19 pandemic. Also, awareness of the potential severity of infections and the role of vaccines should increase. Reminder systems, vaccination of disadvantaged, high-risk and difficult-to-reach populations, accessibility of vaccination, healthcare infrastructure, and vaccination services management should improve. Outbreak preparedness should be strengthened, including implementation of high-quality surveillance systems to monitor epidemiology. While the main focus should be on these public health initiatives to increase vaccination coverage, slightly more benefits could come from evolution of current vaccines.

Waning immunity and potential asymptomatic infection in 3-7 years old children who received one dose of measles-mumps-rubella vaccine: A 4-year prospective study

BACKGROUND

Mumps outbreaks in adolescents who received two doses of measles-mumps-rubella vaccine (MMR) during childhood have been reported worldwide. In China, one dose of MMR administered in children aged among 18-24 months has a limited effect on the mumps epidemic. There are limited prospective studies evaluating the mumps immunity profile of children aged 3-7 years who received one dose of MMR. This study aimed to describe mumps immunity profile over a span of 4-years in kindergarten and primary school children.

METHODS

An observational, prospective study on one-dose MMR in children aged 3-7 years who underwent blood sample collection in 2015, 2016, and 2018 was conducted from 2015 to 2018. The seropositivity and geometric mean concentration of mumps IgG antibodies over time were analyzed.

RESULTS

A total of 3346 eligible children aged 3-7 years who underwent three rounds of blood sample collection were included. The overall seropositivity (79.6%) in 2015 was significantly higher than those recorded in 2016 (73.1%) and 2018 (71.4%). Approximately 11.6-15.9% of the participants were seropositive for mumps in 2015, and converted to negative in 2016. Meanwhile, 11.1-14.6% of the participants were seropositive for mumps in 2016, and the results converted to negative in 2018. Over 6.1-7.4% of the participants had asymptomatic infection from 2015 to 2016, while 9.0-9.9% of the participants were infected without clinical symptoms from 2016 to 2018.

CONCLUSIONS

Kindergarten and primary school children who only received one dose of MMR were at higher risk of developing mumps. Waning immunity, seronegative conversion, and asymptomatic infection coexist in children who received one dose MMR. Determining the optimal age for administering the second dose of MMR in children should be prioritized to improve the control and prevention of mumps in China.

Repeated introductions and intensive community transmission fueled a mumps virus outbreak in Washington State

In 2016/2017, Washington State experienced a mumps outbreak despite high childhood vaccination rates, with cases more frequently detected among school-aged children and members of the Marshallese community. We sequenced 166 mumps virus genomes collected in Washington and other US states, and traced mumps introductions and transmission within Washington. We uncover that mumps was introduced into Washington approximately 13 times, primarily from Arkansas, sparking multiple co-circulating transmission chains. Although age and vaccination status may have impacted transmission, our data set could not quantify their precise effects. Instead, the outbreak in Washington was overwhelmingly sustained by transmission within the Marshallese community. Our findings underscore the utility of genomic data to clarify epidemiologic factors driving transmission and pinpoint contact networks as critical for mumps transmission. These results imply that contact structures and historic disparities may leave populations at increased risk for respiratory virus disease even when a vaccine is effective and widely used.

Outbreak response operations during the US measles epidemic, 2017-19

BACKGROUND

To understand operational challenges involved with responding to US measles outbreaks in 2017-19 and identify applicable lessons in order to inform preparedness and response operations for future outbreaks, particularly with respect to specific operational barriers and recommendations for outbreak responses among insular communities.

METHODS

From August 2019 to January 2020, we conducted 11 telephone interviews with 18 participants representing state and local health departments and community health centers that responded to US measles outbreaks in 2017-19, with a focus on outbreaks among insular communities. We conducted qualitative, thematic coding to identify and characterize key operational challenges and lessons identified by the interviewees.

RESULTS

We categorized principal insights into 5 topic areas: scale of the response, vaccination operations, exclusion policies, community engagement, and countering anti-vaccine efforts. These topics address resource-intensive aspects of these outbreak responses, including personnel demands; guidance needed to support response operations and reduce transmission, such as excluding exposed or at-risk individuals from public spaces; operational challenges and barriers to vaccination and other response activities; and effectively engaging and educating affected populations, particularly with respect to insular and vulnerable communities.

CONCLUSIONS

Measles outbreak responses are resource intensive, which can quickly overwhelm existing public health capacities. Early and effective coordination with trusted leaders and organizations in affected communities, including to provide vaccination capacity and facilitate community engagement, can promote efficient response operations. The firsthand experiences of public health and healthcare personnel who responded to measles outbreaks, including among insular communities, provide evidence-based operational lessons that can inform future preparedness and response operations for outbreaks of highly transmissible diseases.

NOTE ON THE UNIQUENESS OF AN ENDEMIC EQUILIBRIUM OF AN EPIDEMIC MODEL WITH BOOSTING OF IMMUNITY

For some diseases, it is recognized that immunity acquired by natural infection and vaccination subsequently wanes. As such, immunity provides temporal protection to recovered individuals from an infection. An immune period is extended owing to boosting of immunity by asymptomatic re-exposure to an infection. An individual’s immune status plays an important role in the spread of infectious diseases at the population level. We study an age-dependent epidemic model formulated as a nonlinear version of the Aron epidemic model, which incorporates boosting of immunity by a system of delay equations and study the existence of an endemic equilibrium to observe whether boosting of immunity changes the qualitative property of the existence of the equilibrium. We establish a sufficient condition related to the strength of disease transmission from subclinical and clinical infective populations, for the unique existence of an endemic equilibrium.

Low Seroprevalence of Measles-Specific IgG in Children of Three Ethnic Groups from Mexico: Influence of Age, Sex, Malnutrition and Family Size

BACKGROUND

The reemergence of measles represents a public health problem. The aim of the study was to determine the seroprevalence of IgG antibodies against measles in children of three ethnic groups in southern Mexico and the nutritional status and demographic risk factors associated.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study in 416 school-age children, 207 belonging to the Tlapaneco ethnic group, 101 to the Mixteco group and 108 were considered Mestizo. Sociodemographic data were collected, an anthropometric evaluation of the children was performed and a fasting blood sample was obtained from each child for the measurement of measles IgG antibodies by Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA).

RESULTS

From the total sample, 59% of the children were seropositive for IgG antibodies against measles; in contrast, 41% lacked IgG antibodies. Measles antibody seropositivity was higher in girls (64%). 90.5% of 6-year-old children had higher antibodies seroprevalence, compared to the children between 10 and 13 years old (45.5%). In the three ethnic groups, age was negatively correlated with the index standard ratio (ISR) of measles antibody levels and the families with ≥8 members showed less seropositivity. According to the antibodies levels, most of the positive cases remained around 1 Standard Deviation (SD) of the ISR values and no underweight children had antibody levels above 2 SD.

CONCLUSIONS

The Anti-Measles serological coverage is low in children of three ethnic groups from Southern Mexico and the age, sex, malnutrition and family size are associated factors. Therefore, it is important to strengthen immunization campaigns, principally in vulnerable groups.

Immunogenicity and persistence of trivalent measles, mumps, and rubella vaccines: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Despite the universal use of the two-dose trivalent measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine in the past two decades, outbreaks of these diseases still occur in countries with high vaccine uptake, giving rise to concerns about primary and secondary failure of MMR vaccine components. We aimed to provide seroconversion and waning rate estimates for the measles, mumps, and rubella components of MMR vaccines.

METHODS

In this systematic review and meta-analysis we searched PubMed (including MEDLINE), Web of Science, and Embase for randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, or longitudinal studies reporting the immunogenicity and persistence of MMR vaccines, published in English from database inception to Dec 31, 2019. Studies were included if they investigated vaccine-induced immunity in healthy individuals who received a trivalent MMR vaccine, including different dosages and timepoints of vaccine administration. Studies featuring coadministration of MMR with other vaccines, maternal immunity to the MMR vaccine, or non-trivalent formulations of the vaccine were excluded. Pooled seroconversion and waning rates were estimated by random-effects meta-analyses. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42019116705.

FINDINGS

We identified 3615 unique studies, 62 (1·7%) of which were eligible for analysis. Estimated overall seroconversion rates were 96·0% (95% CI 94·5-97·4; I2=91·1%) for measles, 93·3% (91·1-95·2; I2=94·9%) for mumps when excluding the Rubini strain, 91·1% (87·4-94·1; I2=96·6%) for mumps when including the Rubini strain, and 98·3% (97·3-99·2; I2=93·0%) for rubella. Estimated overall annual waning rates were 0·009 (95% CI 0·005-0·016; I2=85·2%) for measles, 0·024 (0·016-0·039; I2=94·7%) for mumps, and 0·012 (0·010-0·014; I2=93·3%) for rubella.

INTERPRETATION

Our meta-analysis provides estimates of primary and secondary vaccine failure, which are essential to improve the accuracy of mathematical and statistical modelling to understand and predict the occurrence of future measles, mumps, and rubella outbreaks in countries with high vaccine uptake.

FUNDING

European Research Council.

Development of Improved Mumps Vaccine Candidates by Mutating Viral mRNA Cap Methyltransferase Sites in the Large Polymerase Protein

Although a live attenuated vaccine is available for controlling mumps virus (MuV), mumps still outbreaks frequently worldwide. The attenuated MuV vaccine strain S79 is widely used in mumps vaccination in China, but still with many shortcomings, among which the most prominent are the side effects and decreased immunity. Therefore, there is a need to further improve the safety and efficacy of the current MuV vaccine. In the present study, we further attenuated MuV S79 vaccine strain by inhibiting viral mRNA methyltransferase (MTase). We generated a panel of eight recombinant MuVs (rMuVs) carrying mutations in the MTase catalytic site or S-adenosylmethionine (SAM) binding site in the large (L) polymerase protein. These rMuVs are genetically stable and seven rMuVs are more attenuated in replication in cell culture and five rMuVs are more attenuated in replication in lungs of cotton rats compared with the parental vaccine strain S79. Importantly, cotton rats vaccinated with these seven rMuV mutants produced high levels of serum neutralizing antibodies and were completely protected against challenge with a wild-type MuV strain (genotype F). Therefore, our results demonstrate that alteration in the MTase catalytic site or SAM binding site in MuV L protein improves the safety or the immunogenicity of the MuV vaccine and thus mRNA cap MTase may be an effective target for the development of new vaccine candidates for MuV.

Identification and description of mumps cases in a non-outbreak setting and evaluation of the effectiveness of mumps-containing vaccines over time

Mumps outbreaks among previously vaccinated young adults raise concerns regarding waning vaccine immunity. This study identified, described and assessed the changing incidence of mumps cases following mumps-containing vaccination (MMR/MMRV) in a non-mumps outbreak setting. Potential cases between 1996 and 2018 were identified by the international classification of disease codes or by mumps laboratory test orders among Kaiser Permanente Northern California members. Medical charts were reviewed to confirm diagnoses, timing relative to vaccination and clinical characteristics. Among 474 potential cases, 257 (54.2%) were confirmed after chart review. A third of the cases were <10 years old at diagnosis and 48% were over 25 years. Most cases (92.2%) had parotitis and 5% of males had orchitis. Mumps rates decreased from 8.5 to 1.8/1,000,000 person-years as time since the second MMR/MMRV dose increased from <2 years to ≥10 years. Similarly, rates decreased from 16.3 to 3/1,000,000 person-years after at least 1 dose of MMR/MMRV. Mumps rates were higher among children aged ≤10 years compared with older age groups. In conclusion, in the context of a non-outbreak setting, this study suggests that waning of vaccine immunity to mumps appeared to have minimal clinical impact.

Efficacy, safety, and formulation issues of the combined vaccines

Introduction: Controlling the preventable infectious diseases is the main goal of vaccination. Among the vaccines, combined vaccines are of great importance for their social, public health, and economic values. It is stated that the combined vaccines are as efficient and safe as the monovalent vaccines. However, a concern has raised about the efficacy and safety of the combined vaccines due to the outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases and occurrence of serious adverse events. Areas covered: A retrospective literature search was conducted in the Google Scholar and PubMed databases to evaluate the efficacy and safety of the combined vaccines from 1980 to 2020 using appropriate keywords. Expert opinion: Several studies have shown efficacy and safety issues related to the combined vaccines. Different factors contribute to the inefficacy and lack of safety in the vaccines including formulation problems, limited data in the pre-licensure studies and challenges related to imperfection of the post-licensure surveillance systems. For surmounting the mentioned obstacles, there is a need to provide new formulations of the vaccines, revise the vaccines҆ safety and efficacy acceptance standards in the pre-licensure studies, improvement of post-licensure surveillance systems, and education of healthcare staff.

Durability of humoral immune responses to rubella following MMR vaccination

BACKGROUND

While administration of the measles-mumps-rubella (MMR-II®) vaccine has been effective at preventing rubella infection in the United States, the durability of humoral immunity to the rubella component of MMR vaccine has not been widely studied among older adolescents and adults.

METHODS

In this longitudinal study, we sought to assess the durability of rubella virus (RV)-specific humoral immunity in a healthy population (n = 98) of adolescents and young adults at two timepoints: ~7 and ~17 years after two doses of MMR-II® vaccination. Levels of circulating antibodies specific to RV were measured by ELISA and an immune-colorimetric neutralization assay. RV-specific memory B cell responses were also measured by ELISpot.

RESULTS

Rubella-specific IgG antibody titers, neutralizing antibody titers, and memory B cell responses declined with increasing time since vaccination; however, these decreases were relatively moderate. Memory B cell responses exhibited a greater decline in men compared to women.

CONCLUSIONS

Collectively, rubella-specific humoral immunity declines following vaccination, although subjects' antibody titers remain well above the currently recognized threshold for protective immunity. Clinical correlates of protection based on neutralizing antibody titer and memory B cell ELISpot response should be defined.

Mumps outbreaks across Canada, 2016 to 2018

BACKGROUND

An increase in mumps incidence was observed in late 2016 (365 cases in 2016 compared to 59 cases in 2015). This unusual level of mumps activity prompted the Public Health Network Council and the National Advisory Committee on Immunization to request situation awareness updates from the Centre for Immunization and Respiratory Infectious Diseases (CIRID) at the Public Health Agency of Canada in 2017 and 2018.

METHODS

A mumps outbreak survey was developed and administered by epidemiologists within CIRID and sent electronically to provincial and territorial public health officials in charge of mumps surveillance. The survey collected information on mumps outbreaks pertaining to demographics, risk factors, laboratory data and public health interventions. The first survey collected data on outbreaks occurring between January 1, 2016 and February 28, 2017, while the second survey contained outbreak data from January 1, 2017 to July 31, 2018. Duplicate outbreaks entries were removed.

RESULTS

The response rate for the first and second surveys was 61% and 69%, respectively. Twenty-four mumps outbreaks across nine provinces were reported between January 1, 2016 and July 31, 2018, for a cumulative total of 881 mumps cases. Adolescents and adults 15 to 39 years of age accounted for the majority of cases (80.6%). Specifically, adults 20 to 24 years of age represented the largest proportion of cases (24.6%). Community and social gatherings were the most common exposure setting (62.5%). Slightly more than one third of cases were known to have received at least two doses of mumps-containing vaccine (35.6%).

CONCLUSION

Results from the surveys indicate that the increase in mumps activity was widespread throughout Canada, affecting multiple jurisdictions. Young adults accounted for the largest proportion of cases. These surveys provided evidence to support recommendations on the use of additional mumps vaccination in outbreak settings.

Epidemiological and Phylogenetic Analysis of Mumps Virus Isolated from 2016 to 2019 in Henan Province, China

Routine vaccination has proven to be highly effective in reducing the incidence of mumps. However, sporadic cases and/or mumps outbreaks have been reported in children and adolescents younger than 15 years of age, particularly among those aged 5-9 years. To explore the characteristics of such outbreaks in the Henan Province, clinical data of patients infected with mumps virus (MuV) were collected, and the isolated strains were phylogenetically analyzed. Of the total 426 samples analyzed, MuV RNA targeting the small hydrophobic (SH) gene was detected in 153 samples. MuV-positive cases in age groups <5 years, 5-9 years, 10-15 years, 16-19 years, and ≥20 years accounted for 1%, 17%, 12%, 2%, and 4% of the total number of cases, respectively. Phylogenetic analysis based on the SH gene sequences indicated that all of the isolated strains were of genotype F, and isolates in the same subcluster and with identical SH gene sequences tended to be derived from the same community or municipalities when analyzed alongside epidemiological data. In conclusion, the incidence of mumps in the Henan Province was high. The data provided in this study might promote further research in the clarification of the specific causes of mumps outbreaks, which can facilitate the implementation of effective prevention and control measures.

Mumps Outbreaks in Vaccinated Populations-Is It Time to Re-assess the Clinical Efficacy of Vaccines?

History illustrates the remarkable public health impact of mass vaccination, by dramatically improving life expectancy and reducing the burden of infectious diseases and co-morbidities worldwide. It has been perceived that if an individual adhered to the MMR vaccine schedule that immunity to mumps virus (MuV) would be lifelong. Recent mumps outbreaks in individuals who had received two doses of the Measles Mumps Rubella (MMR) vaccine has challenged the efficacy of the MMR vaccine. However, clinical symptoms, complications, viral shedding and transmission associated with mumps infection has been shown to be reduced in vaccinated individuals, demonstrating a benefit of this vaccine. Therefore, the question of what constitutes a good mumps vaccine and how its impact is assessed in this modern era remains to be addressed. Epidemiology of the individuals most affected by the outbreaks (predominantly young adults) and variance in the circulating MuV genotype have been well-described alluding to a collection of influences such as vaccine hesitancy, heterogeneous vaccine uptake, primary, and/or secondary vaccine failures. This review aims to discuss in detail the interplay of factors thought to be contributing to the current mumps outbreaks seen in highly vaccinated populations. In addition, how mumps diagnoses has progressed and impacted the understanding of mumps infection since a mumps vaccine was first developed, the limitations of current laboratory tests in confirming protection in vaccinated individuals and how vaccine effectiveness is quantified are also considered. By highlighting knowledge gaps within this area, this state-of-the-art review proposes a change of perspective regarding the impact of a vaccine in a highly vaccinated population from a clinical, diagnostic and public perspective, highlighting a need for a paradigm shift on what is considered vaccine immunity.

Effect of change in cell substrate on the critical quality attributes of L-Zagreb Mumps vaccine manufactured using parallel plate bioreactor

Leningrad-Zagreb strain of mumps vaccine virus was grown on two different cell substrates viz. MRC-5 cells and Vero cells besides its original cell substrate i.e. Chicken Embryo Cells. Homogeneous virus pools prepared from each set of experiments were then lyophilized as per standard in-house protocol. Critical Quality Attributes (CQAs) such as the titer of the bulk vaccine and potency and stability of the lyophilized vaccine were then estimated using the CCID₅₀ method to understand the lyophilization losses and thermal losses respectively in the vaccine. Another CQA viz. the genetic homogeneity of the vaccine was also tested using the single base extension method for identifying the nucleotides present at the three known locations of single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP). Comparison of CQA results across different cell substrates indicated encouraging results for Vero cell grown L-Zagreb virus compared to the MRC-5 cells grown L-Zagreb mumps virus. Significant improvement in productivity was also observed in the dynamic culture conditions compared to the static culture conditions. Progressive work in this research area can lead to development of a cGMP manufacturing process for mumps vaccine with easy scale up potential in future.

Evidence for Residual Immunity to Smallpox After Vaccination and Implications for Re-emergence

INTRODUCTION

Smallpox has been eradicated but advances in synthetic biology have increased the risk of its re-emergence. Residual immunity in individuals who were previously vaccinated may mitigate the impact of an outbreak, but there is a high degree of uncertainty about the duration and degree of residual immunity. Both cell-mediated and humoral immunity are thought to be important but the exact mechanisms of protection are unclear. Guidelines usually suggest vaccine-induced immunity wanes to zero after 3-10 years post vaccination, whereas other estimates show long term immunity over decades.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A systematic review of the literature was conducted to quantify the duration and extent of residual immunity to smallpox after vaccination.

RESULTS

Twenty-nine papers related to quantifying residual immunity to smallpox after vaccination were identified: neutralizing antibody levels were used as immune correlates of protection in 11/16 retrospective cross-sectional studies, 2/3 epidemiological studies, 6/7 prospective vaccine trials and 0/3 modeling studies. Duration of protection of >20 years was consistently shown in the 16 retrospective cross-sectional studies, while the lowest estimated duration of protection was 11.7 years among the modeling studies. Childhood vaccination conferred longer duration of protection than vaccination in adulthood, and multiple vaccinations did not appear to improve immunity.

CONCLUSIONS

Most studies suggest a longer duration of residual immunity (at least 20 years) than assumed in smallpox guidelines. Estimates from modeling studies were less but still greater than the 3-10 years suggested by the WHO Committee on International Quarantine or US CDC guidelines. These recommendations were probably based on observations and studies conducted while smallpox was endemic. The cut-off values for pre-existing antibody levels of >1:20 and >1:32 reported during the period of endemic smallpox circulation may not be relevant to the contemporary population, but have been used as a threshold for identifying people with residual immunity in post-eradication era studies. Of the total antibodies produced in response to smallpox vaccination, neutralizing antibodies have shown to contribute significantly to immunological memory. Although the mechanism of immunological memory and boosting is unclear, revaccination is likely to result in a more robust response. There is a need to improve the evidence base for estimates on residual immunity to better inform planning and preparedness for re-emergent smallpox.

Ongoing mumps outbreak among adolescents and young adults, Ireland, August 2018 to January 2020

Between 18 August 2018 and 24 January 2020, 3,736 mumps cases were notified in Ireland. The highest numbers of notifications were observed in the age group 15–24 years. Vaccination status was reported for 32% (n = 1,199) of cases: 72% of these had received two doses of measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine. Vaccination uptake after free MMR vaccination targeting colleges and universities since early 2019 was low. Therefore, a national media campaign began in January 2020.

Waning immunity and re-emergence of measles and mumps in the vaccine era

Vaccine-preventable diseases (VPD) including measles and mumps have been re-emerging in countries with sustained high vaccine coverage. For mumps, waning immunity has been recognized as a major contributor to recent outbreaks. Although unvaccinated individuals account for most cases in recent measles outbreaks, the role of immune waning remains unclear. Accumulating serological and epidemiological evidence suggests that natural immunity induced by infection may be more durable compared to vaccine-induced immunity. As the proportion of population immunity via vaccination gradually increases and boosting through natural exposures becomes rare, risk of outbreaks may increase. Mechanistic insights into the coupled immuno-epidemiological dynamics of waning and boosting will be important to understand optimal vaccination strategies to combat VPD re-emergence and achieve eradication.

High risk of mumps infection in children who received one dose of mumps-containing vaccine: waning immunity to mumps in children aged 2-5 years from kindergartens in Jiangsu Province, China

BACKGROUND

During the period of immunization with a single-dose measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine, which has been available since 2008in China, the incidence of mumps in children aged 2-5 years has been high. The aim of this study was to determine the immunity profile of mumps in children aged 2-5 years as part of the assessment of the MMR vaccination strategy.

METHODS

A cross-sectional survey of IgG antibodies against mumps virus in children aged 2-5 years was performed. Analysis by enzyme-linked immune sorbent assay(ELISA)was performed to measure IgG antibodies against mumps virus in the sera of 2-to5-year-old children who had been vaccinated with at least one dose of MMR vaccine.

RESULTS

Mumps outbreaks mainly occurred in kindergarten and primary schools and primarily involved children in kindergarten from 2015-2016 in Jiangsu Province. In total, 4,033 children were surveyed. The overall seroprevalence of mumps antibodies was 79.0% (95% CI:78.4-79.6), and the geometric mean concentration (GMC) was 323.6 mIU/ml (309.0-338.8). Both univariate and multivariate survival analysis of seroprevalence showed that several factors contributed to having significant seroprevalence among the 2-to-5-year-old group (P < .05). The seroprevalence of children with a single-dose MMR vaccine regimen (78.4%, 95% CI: 77.8-80.4) was significantly lower than that of children with a two-dose MMR vaccine regimen (96.5%, 95% CI: 88.6%-96.1%). The seroprevalence rate was negatively correlated with time since inoculation (P < .01).

CONCLUSION

Children who received a single dose of MMR vaccine in kindergarten, particularly the 2-year-old group in the northern region of Jiangsu Province, China, are at high risk of mumps infection. Our study demonstrates thata single-dose MMR vaccine regimen has a limited effect on controlling mumps, which highlights the benefit of introducing a two-dose MMR vaccine schedule.

Recurrent outbreaks of mumps in Lothian and the impact of waning immunity

Another large outbreak of mumps occurred in Lothian from October 2017, which coincided with the commencement of the higher education term. During this period 324 cases were notified, most of whom were aged 18–22 years old. Although previous outbreaks had a focus in student populations, 43% of current cases reported that they were not a student. There has been increases in private student housing where students from all universities live, which may have contributed to the wide spread of the outbreak and complicated outbreak control. Information on vaccination status was available for 244 cases (75%), of whom the majority (75.8%) reported having two MMR doses. To investigate potential waning vaccine immunity the mean length of time since last mumps containing vaccine was calculated as 14.3 years. The outbreak was declared over in May 2018 after case numbers returned to background levels. This outbreak highlighted that mumps outbreaks occur cyclically coinciding with new cohorts of susceptible students entering the Lothian population. The lessons from this outbreak are to encourage students to have two MMR doses and also be prepared for mumps outbreaks in the near future. In future outbreaks the utility of a third MMR for outbreak control could be examined.