Epidemiological dynamics of enterovirus D68 in the United States and implications for acute flaccid myelitis

Increasing intensity of enterovirus outbreaks projected with climate change

Pathogens of the enterovirus genus, including poliovirus and coxsackieviruses, typically circulate in the summer months suggesting a possible positive association between warmer weather and transmission. Here we evaluate the environmental and demographic drivers of enterovirus transmission, as well as the implications of climate change for future enterovirus circulation. We leverage pre-vaccination era data on polio in the US as well as data on two enterovirus A serotypes in China and Japan that are known to cause hand, foot, and mouth disease. Using mechanistic modeling and statistical approaches, we find that enterovirus transmission appears positively correlated with temperature although demographic factors, particularly the timing of school semesters, remain important. We use temperature projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to simulate future outbreaks under late 21st-century climate change for Chinese provinces. We find that outbreak size increases with climate change on average, though results differ across climate models depending on the degree of wintertime warming. In the worst-case scenario, we project peak outbreaks in some locations could increase by up to 40%.

Characteristics of enterovirus infection associated neurologic disease associated in a pediatric population in Spain

INTRODUCTION

Enteroviruses are a type of RNA-strained virus with more than 100 different genotypes. Infection can be asymptomatic, and, if any, symptoms can range from mild to severe. Some patients can develop neurological involvement, such as aseptic meningitis, encephalitis, or even cardiorespiratory failure. However, in children, the risk factors for developing severe neurological involvement are not well understood. The aim of this retrospective study was to analyze some characteristics associated with severe neurological involvement in children hospitalized for neurological disease after enterovirus infection.

METHODS

retrospective observational study analyzing clinical, microbiological and radiological data of 174 children hospitalized from 2009 to 2019 in our hospital. Patients were classified according to the World Health Organization case definition for neurological complications in hand, foot and mouth disease.

RESULTS

Our findings showed that, in children between 6 months old and 2 years of age, the appearance of neurological symptoms within the first 12h from infection onset-especially if associated with skin rash-was a significant risk factor for severe neurological involvement. Detection of enterovirus in cerebrospinal fluid was more likely in patients with aseptic meningitis. By contrast, other biological samples (e.g., feces or nasopharyngeal fluids) were necessary to detect enterovirus in patients with encephalitis. The genotype most commonly associated with the most severe neurological conditions was EV-A71. E-30 was mostly associated with aseptic meningitis.

CONCLUSIONS

Awareness of the risk factors associated with worse neurological outcomes could help clinicians to better manage these patients to avoid unnecessary admissions and/or ancillary tests.

Predicting the impact of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical intervention on short- and medium-term dynamics of enterovirus D68 in the US

Recent outbreaks of enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) infections, and their causal linkage with acute flaccid myelitis (AFM), continue to pose a serious public health concern. During 2020 and 2021, the dynamics of EV-D68 and other pathogens have been significantly perturbed by non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19; this perturbation presents a powerful natural experiment for exploring the dynamics of these endemic infections. In this study, we analyzed publicly available data on EV-D68 infections, originally collected through the New Vaccine Surveillance Network, to predict their short- and long-term dynamics following the COVID-19 interventions. Although long-term predictions are sensitive to our assumptions about underlying dynamics and changes in contact rates during the NPI periods, the likelihood of a large outbreak in 2023 appears to be low. Comprehensive surveillance data are needed to accurately characterize future dynamics of EV-D68. The limited incidence of AFM cases in 2022, despite large EV-D68 outbreaks, poses further questions for the timing of the next AFM outbreaks.

Multimodal Surveillance Model for Enterovirus D68 Respiratory Disease and Acute Flaccid Myelitis among Children in Colorado, USA, 2022

Surveillance for emerging pathogens is critical for developing early warning systems to guide preparedness efforts for future outbreaks of associated disease. To better define the epidemiology and burden of associated respiratory disease and acute flaccid myelitis (AFM), as well as to provide actionable data for public health interventions, we developed a multimodal surveillance program in Colorado, USA, for enterovirus D68 (EV-D68). Timely local, state, and national public health outreach was possible because prospective syndromic surveillance for AFM and asthma-like respiratory illness, prospective clinical laboratory surveillance for EV-D68 among children hospitalized with respiratory illness, and retrospective wastewater surveillance led to early detection of the 2022 outbreak of EV-D68 among Colorado children. The lessons learned from developing the individual layers of this multimodal surveillance program and how they complemented and informed the other layers of surveillance for EV-D68 and AFM could be applied to other emerging pathogens and their associated diseases.

Clinical and molecular epidemiology of enterovirus D68 from 2013 to 2020 in Shanghai

Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) is an emerging pathogen that has caused outbreaks of severe respiratory disease worldwide, especially in children. We aim to investigate the prevalence and genetic characteristics of EV-D68 in children from Shanghai. Nasopharyngeal swab or bronchoalveolar lavage fluid samples collected from children hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia were screened for EV-D68. Nine of 3997 samples were EV-D68-positive. Seven of nine positive samples were sequenced and submitted to GenBank. Based on partial polyprotein gene (3D) or complete sequence analysis, we found the seven strains belong to different clades and subclades, including three D1 (detected in 2013 and 2014), one D2 (2013), one D3 (2019), and two B3 (2014 and 2018). Overall, we show different clades and subclades of EV-D68 spread with low positive rates (0.2%) among children in Shanghai between 2013 and 2020. Amino acid mutations were found in the epitopes of the VP1 BC and DE loops and C-terminus; similarity analysis provided evidence for recombination as an important mechanism of genomic diversification. Both single nucleotide mutations and recombination play a role in evolution of EV-D68. Genetic instability within these clinical strains may indicate large outbreaks could occur following cumulative mutations.

Identification of four neutralizing antigenic sites on the enterovirus D68 capsid

IMPORTANCE

Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) is an emerging respiratory pathogen associated with acute flaccid myelitis. Currently, no approved vaccines or antiviral drugs are available. Here, we report four functionally independent neutralizing antigenic sites (I to IV) by analyses of neutralizing monoclonal antibody (MAb)-resistant mutants. Site I is located in the VP1 BC loop near the fivefold axis. Site II resides in the VP2 EF loop, and site III is situated in VP1 C-terminus; both sites are located at the south rim of the canyon. Site IV is composed of residue in VP2 βB strand and residues in the VP3 BC loop and resides around the threefold axis. The developed MAbs targeting the antigenic sites can inhibit viral binding to cells. These findings advance the understanding of the recognition of EV-D68 by neutralizing antibodies and viral evolution and immune escape and also have important implications for the development of novel EV-D68 vaccines.

Dynamics in a behavioral-epidemiological model for individual adherence to a nonpharmaceutical intervention

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has highlighted the importance of behavioral drivers in epidemic dynamics. With the relaxation of mandated nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) formerly in place to decrease transmission, such as mask-wearing or social distancing, adherence to an NPI is now the result of individual decision-making. To study these coupled dynamics, we embed a game-theoretic model for individual NPI adherence within an epidemiological model. When the disease is endemic, we find that our model has multiple (but none concurrently stable) equilibria: one each with zero, complete, or partial NPI adherence. Surprisingly, for the equilibrium with partial NPI adherence, the number of infections is independent of the transmission rate. Therefore, in that regime, a change in the rate of pathogen transmission, e.g., due to another (mandated) NPI or a new variant, has no effect on endemic infection levels. On the other hand, we show that vaccination successfully decreases endemic infection levels, and, unexpectedly, also reduces the number of susceptibles at equilibrium when there is partial adherence. From a game-theoretic perspective, we find that highly effective NPIs lead at most to partial adherence. As this effectiveness decreases, partially effective NPIs initially lead to increases in population-level adherence, especially if the risk is high enough. However, a completely ineffective NPI results in no adherence. Furthermore, we identify parameter regions where the individual incentives may not align with those of society as a whole. Overall, our findings illustrate complexities that can arise due to behavioral-epidemiological feedback and suggest appropriate measures to avoid more pessimistic population-level outcomes.

Insights into the molecular evolution of enterovirus D68

Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) is a respiratory virus that primarily affects children and has been associated with sporadic outbreaks of respiratory illness worldwide. In the present study, temporal spreading and molecular evolution of EV-D68 clades (A1, A2, B, B1, B2, B3, and C) were evaluated. Bayesian coalescent analysis was performed to study viral evolution. Data from 976 whole-genome sequences (WGSs) collected between 1977 and 2022 were evaluated. For A1, the most recent common ancestor was dated to 2005-04-17 in the USA; for A2 it was 2003-12-23 in China; for B, it was 2003-07-06 in China; for B1, it was 2010-03-21 in Vietnam; for B2, it was 2006-11-25 in Vietnam; for B3, it was 2011-01-15 in China; and for C, it was 2000-06-27 in the USA. The molecular origin of EV-D68 was in Canada in 1995, and later it was disseminated in France in 1997, the USA in 1999, Asia in 2008, the Netherlands in 2009, New Zealand in 2010, Mexico in 2014, Kenya in 2015, Sweden in 2016, Switzerland in 2018, Spain in 2018, Belgium in 2018, Australia in 2018, and Denmark in 2019. In 2022, this virus circulated in the USA. In conclusion, EV-D68 originated in Canada in the 1990s and spread to Europe, Asia, Oceania, Latin America, and Africa.

Neutralizing activity of intravenous immune globulin products against enterovirus D68 strains isolated in Japan

BACKGROUND

Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68), belonging to Enterovirus D, is a unique human enterovirus mainly associated with common respiratory diseases. However, EV-D68 can cause severe respiratory diseases, and EV-D68 endemic is epidemiologically linked to current global epidemic of acute flaccid myelitis.

METHODS

In this study, we measured neutralizing antibody titers against six clinical EV-D68 isolates in nine intravenous immune globulin (IVIG) products commercially available in Japan to assess their potential as therapeutic options for severe EV-D68 infection.

RESULTS

Seven IVIG products manufactured from Japanese donors contained high neutralizing antibody titers (IC₅₀ = 0.22-85.01 µg/mL) against all six EV-D68 strains. Apparent differences in neutralizing titers among the six EV-D68 strains were observed for all IVIG products derived from Japanese and non-Japanese blood donors.

CONCLUSIONS

High levels of EV-D68-neutralizing antibodies in IVIG products manufactured from Japanese donors suggest that anti-EV-D68 antibodies are maintained in the Japanese donor population similarly as found in foreign blood donors. Apparent differences in neutralizing antibody titers against the six EV-D68 strains suggest distinct antigenicity among the strains used in this study regardless of the genetic similarity of EV-D68.

The Clinical Performance of the BioCode Respiratory Pathogen Panel for the Detection of Viruses and Bacteria from Nasopharyngeal Swabs

Early detection of microbial pathogens causing respiratory tract infection plays a crucial role in clinical management. The BioCode Respiratory Pathogen Panel (BioCode RPP) utilizes reverse transcriptase PCR (RT-PCR) in combination with barcoded magnetic beads to amplify, detect, and identify respiratory pathogens. This panel qualitatively detects and identifies 14 viruses, including influenza virus A with H1 pdm09, H1, and H3 subtyping; influenza B; respiratory syncytial virus (RSV); human metapneumovirus; parainfluenza virus 1; parainfluenza virus 2; parainfluenza virus 3; parainfluenza virus 4; coronavirus (229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1); adenovirus; and human rhinovirus/enterovirus, and 3 bacteria, including Chlamydia pneumoniae, Mycoplasma pneumoniae, and Bordetella pertussis. Reproducibility, which was assessed with contrived specimens containing 12 targets at 3 clinical sites, with 2 operators at each site for 5 days, was 99.4% for Flu A H3 and Flu B, 98.9% for RSV, and 100% for the remaining 9 targets assayed. A multicenter clinical trial evaluated the performance of the BioCode RPP with 2,647 nasopharyngeal swab specimens from 5 geographically distinct sites and revealed comparable performance between the BioCode RPP and FilmArray Respiratory Panel (FA-RP). Specifically, the positive percent agreements (PPAs) for various pathogens ranged between 80.8% and 100% compared with the FA-RP (1.7 and 2.0). Negative percent agreement ranged from 98.4% to 100% for BioCode RPP. The BioCode RPP also offers scalable automated testing capability of up to 96 specimens in a single run with total sample-to-result time under 5 h. The invalid rate of the BioCode RPP on initial testing was 1.0% (26/2,649). IMPORTANCE Early detection of microbial pathogens causing respiratory tract infection plays a crucial role in clinical management. The BioCode Respiratory Pathogen Panel (BioCode RPP) is a high-throughput test that utilizes RT-PCR in combination with barcoded magnetic beads to amplify, detect, and identify 17 respiratory pathogens, including 14 viruses and 3 bacteria. This study summarizes data generated from a multicenter clinical trial evaluating the performance of the BioCode RPP on 2,647 nasopharyngeal swab specimens from five geographically distinct sites.

EV-D68 virus-like particle vaccines elicit cross-clade neutralizing antibodies that inhibit infection and block dissemination

Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) causes severe respiratory illness in children and can result in a debilitating paralytic disease known as acute flaccid myelitis. No treatment or vaccine for EV-D68 infection is available. Here, we demonstrate that virus-like particle (VLP) vaccines elicit a protective neutralizing antibody against homologous and heterologous EV-D68 subclades. VLP based on a B1 subclade 2014 outbreak strain elicited comparable B1 EV-D68 neutralizing activity as an inactivated viral particle vaccine in mice. Both immunogens elicited weaker cross-neutralization against heterologous viruses. A B3 VLP vaccine elicited more robust neutralization of B3 subclade viruses with improved cross-neutralization. A balanced CD4⁺ T helper response was achieved using a carbomer-based adjuvant, Adjuplex. Nonhuman primates immunized with this B3 VLP Adjuplex formulation generated robust neutralizing antibodies against homologous and heterologous subclade viruses. Our results suggest that both vaccine strain and adjuvant selection are critical elements for improving the breadth of protective immunity against EV-D68.

An increase in enterovirus D68 circulation and viral evolution during a period of increased influenza like illness, The Johns Hopkins Health System, USA, 2022

BACKGROUND

An increase in influenza like illness in children and adolescents at the Johns Hopkins Health system during summer 2022 was associated with increased positivity for enterovirus/ rhinovirus. We sought to characterize the epidemiology and viral evolution of enterovirus D68 (EV-D68).

METHODS

A cohort of remnant respiratory samples tested at the Johns Hopkins Microbiology Laboratory was screened for EV-D68. EV-D68 positives were characterized by whole genome sequencing and viral loads were assessed by droplet digital PCR (ddPCR). Genomic changes and viral loads were analyzed along with patients' clinical presentations.

RESULTS

Of 566 screened samples, 126 were EV-D68 (22.3%). The median age of EV-D68 infected patients was four years, a total of 52 required supplemental oxygen (41.3%), and 35 (27.8%) were admitted. Lung disease was the most frequent comorbidity that was associated with hospitalization. A total of 75 complete and 32 partial genomes were characterized that made a new cluster within the B3 subclade that was closest to US genomes from 2018. Amino acid changes within the BC and DE loops were identified from 31 genomes (29%) which correlated with an increase in average viral load in respiratory specimens and the need for supplemental oxygen.

CONCLUSIONS

EV-D68 outbreaks continue to cause influenza like illness that could be overwhelming for the health system due to a significant demand for high flow oxygen. Viral evolution and an increase in the susceptible population are likely driving the trends of the increased EV-D68 infections.

Development of Enterovirus Antiviral Agents That Target the Viral 2C Protein

The Enterovirus (EV) genus includes several important human and animal pathogens. EV-A71, EV-D68, poliovirus (PV), and coxsackievirus (CV) outbreaks have affected millions worldwide, causing a range of upper respiratory, skin, and neuromuscular diseases, including acute flaccid myelitis, and hand-foot-and-mouth disease. There are no FDA-approved antiviral therapeutics for these enteroviruses. This study describes novel antiviral compounds targeting the conserved non-structural viral protein 2C with low micromolar to nanomolar IC₅₀ values. The selection of resistant mutants resulted in amino acid substitutions in the viral capsid protein, implying these compounds may play a role in inhibiting the interaction of 2C and the capsid protein. The assembly and encapsidation stages of the viral life cycle still need to be fully understood, and the inhibitors reported here could be useful probes in understanding these processes.

Increase in Acute Respiratory Illnesses Among Children and Adolescents Associated with Rhinoviruses and Enteroviruses, Including Enterovirus D68 - United States, July-September 2022

Increases in severe respiratory illness and acute flaccid myelitis (AFM) among children and adolescents resulting from enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) infections occurred biennially in the United States during 2014, 2016, and 2018, primarily in late summer and fall. Although EV-D68 annual trends are not fully understood, EV-D68 levels were lower than expected in 2020, potentially because of implementation of COVID-19 mitigation measures (e.g., wearing face masks, enhanced hand hygiene, and physical distancing) (1). In August 2022, clinicians in several geographic areas notified CDC of an increase in hospitalizations of pediatric patients with severe respiratory illness and positive rhinovirus/enterovirus (RV/EV) test results.* Surveillance data were analyzed from multiple national data sources to characterize reported trends in acute respiratory illness (ARI), asthma/reactive airway disease (RAD) exacerbations, and the percentage of positive RV/EV and EV-D68 test results during 2022 compared with previous years. These data demonstrated an increase in emergency department (ED) visits by children and adolescents with ARI and asthma/RAD in late summer 2022. The percentage of positive RV/EV test results in national laboratory-based surveillance and the percentage of positive EV-D68 test results in pediatric sentinel surveillance also increased during this time. Previous increases in EV-D68 respiratory illness have led to substantial resource demands in some hospitals and have also coincided with increases in cases of AFM (2), a rare but serious neurologic disease affecting the spinal cord. Therefore, clinicians should consider AFM in patients with acute flaccid limb weakness, especially after respiratory illness or fever, and ensure prompt hospitalization and referral to specialty care for such cases. Clinicians should also test for poliovirus infection in patients suspected of having AFM because of the clinical similarity to acute flaccid paralysis caused by poliovirus. Ongoing surveillance for EV-D68 is critical to ensuring preparedness for possible future increases in ARI and AFM.

Animal Models of Enterovirus D68 Infection and Disease

Human enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) is a globally reemerging respiratory pathogen that is associated with the development of acute flaccid myelitis (AFM) in children. Currently, there are no approved vaccines or treatments for EV-D68 infection, and there is a paucity of data related to the virus and host-specific factors that predict disease severity and progression to the neurologic syndrome. EV-D68 infection of various animal models has served as an important platform for characterization and comparison of disease pathogenesis between historic and contemporary isolates. Still, there are significant gaps in our knowledge of EV-D68 pathogenesis that constrain the development and evaluation of targeted vaccines and antiviral therapies. Continued refinement and characterization of animal models that faithfully reproduce key elements of EV-D68 infection and disease is essential for ensuring public health preparedness for future EV-D68 outbreaks.

Epidemiology of Antimicrobial Resistance Among Blood and Respiratory Specimens in the United States Using Genotypic Analysis from a Cloud-Based Population Surveillance Network

Background

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) surveillance is critical in informing strategies for infection control in slowing the spread of resistant organisms and for antimicrobial stewardship in the care of patients. However, significant challenges exist in timely and comprehensive AMR surveillance.

Methods

Using BioFire Pneumonia and Blood Culture 2 Panels data from BioFire Syndromic Trends (Trend), a cloud-based population surveillance network, we described the detection rate of AMR among a US cohort. Data were included from 2019 to 2021 for Gram-positive and -negative organisms and their related AMR genomic-resistant determinants as well as for detections of Candida auris. Regional and between panel AMR detection rate differences were compared. In addition, AMR codetections and detection rate per organism were evaluated for Gram-negative organisms.

Results

A total of 26 912 tests were performed, primarily in the Midwest. Overall, AMR detection rate was highest in the South and more common for respiratory specimens than blood. methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus and vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus detection rates were 34.9% and 15.9%, respectively, whereas AMR for Gram-negative organisms was lower with 7.0% CTX-M and 2.9% carbapenemases. In addition, 10 mcr-1 and 4 C auris detections were observed. For Gram-negative organisms, Klebsiella pneumoniae and Escherichia coli were most likely to be detected with an AMR gene, and of Gram-negative organisms, K pneumoniae was most often associated with 2 or more AMR genes.

Conclusions

Our study provides important in-depth evaluation of the epidemiology of AMR among respiratory and blood specimens for Gram-positive and -negative organism in the United States. The Trend surveillance network allows for near real-time surveillance of AMR.

A Hierarchical Genotyping Framework Using DNA Melting Temperatures Applied to Adenovirus Species Typing

Known genetic variation, in conjunction with post-PCR melting curve analysis, can be leveraged to provide increased taxonomic detail for pathogen identification in commercial molecular diagnostic tests. Increased taxonomic detail may be used by clinicians and public health decision-makers to observe circulation patterns, monitor for outbreaks, and inform testing practices. We propose a method for expanding the taxonomic resolution of PCR diagnostic systems by incorporating a priori knowledge of assay design and sequence information into a genotyping classification model. For multiplexed PCR systems, this framework is generalized to incorporate information from multiple assays to increase classification accuracy. An illustrative hierarchical classification model for human adenovirus (HAdV) species was developed and demonstrated ~95% cross-validated accuracy on a labeled dataset. The model was then applied to a near-real-time surveillance dataset in which deidentified adenovirus detected patient test data from 2018 through 2021 were classified into one of six adenovirus species. These results show a marked change in both the predicted prevalence for HAdV and the species makeup with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. HAdV-B decreased from a pre-pandemic predicted prevalence of up to 40% to less than 5% in 2021, while HAdV-A and HAdV-F species both increased in predicted prevalence.

Enterovirus D68 epidemic, UK, 2018, was caused by subclades B3 and D1, predominantly in children and adults, respectively, with both subclades exhibiting extensive genetic diversity

Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) has recently been identified in biennial epidemics coinciding with diagnoses of non-polio acute flaccid paralysis/myelitis (AFP/AFM). We investigated the prevalence, genetic relatedness and associated clinical features of EV-D68 in 193 EV-positive samples from 193 patients in late 2018, UK. EV-D68 was detected in 83 (58 %) of 143 confirmed EV-positive samples. Sequencing and phylogenetic analysis revealed extensive genetic diversity, split between subclades B3 (n=50) and D1 (n=33), suggesting epidemiologically unrelated infections. B3 predominated in children and younger adults, and D1 in older adults and the elderly (P=0.0009). Clinical presentation indicated causation or exacerbation of respiratory distress in 91.4 % of EV-D68-positive individuals, principally cough (75.3 %), shortness of breath (56.8 %), coryza (48.1 %), wheeze (46.9 %), supplemental oxygen required (46.9 %) and fever (38.9 %). Two cases of AFM were observed, one with EV-D68 detectable in the cerebrospinal fluid, but otherwise neurological symptoms were rarely reported (n=4). Both AFM cases and all additional instances of intensive care unit (ICU) admission (n=5) were seen in patients infected with EV-D68 subclade B3. However, due to the infrequency of severe infection in our cohort, statistical significance could not be assessed.

Neutralizing Enterovirus D68 Antibodies in Children after 2014 Outbreak, Kansas City, Missouri, USA

Antibodies to B1, B2, and D clade viruses were detected.

Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) causes severe respiratory illness outbreaks among children, particularly those with asthma. We previously detected neutralizing antibodies against the predominant EV-D68 B1 clade in the 2014 outbreak in serum collected before the outbreak (2012–2013) from persons 24 months to 85 years of age. We recently detected neutralizing antibodies to the 2014 B1, B2, and D clade viruses in serum collected after the 2014 outbreak (April–May 2017) from 300 children 6 months to 18 years of age. B1 virus neutralizing antibodies were found in 100% of patients, even children born after 2014; B2 in 84.6%, and D in 99.6%. In 2017, titers increased with patient age and were higher than titers in 2012–2013 from comparably aged children. Rate of seronegativity was highest (15.3%) for B2 virus. Multivariate analysis revealed an association between asthma and higher titers against B2 and D viruses. EV-D68 seems to have circulated during 2014–2017.

Detection of Enterovirus D68 in Wastewater Samples from the UK between July and November 2021

Infection with enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) has been linked with severe neurological disease such as acute flaccid myelitis (AFM) in recent years. However, active surveillance for EV-D68 is lacking, which makes full assessment of this association difficult. Although a high number of EV-D68 infections were expected in 2020 based on the EV-D68's known biannual circulation patterns, no apparent increase in EV-D68 detections or AFM cases was observed during 2020. We describe an upsurge of EV-D68 detections in wastewater samples from the United Kingdom between July and November 2021 mirroring the recently reported rise in EV-D68 detections in clinical samples from various European countries. We provide the first publicly available 2021 EV-D68 sequences showing co-circulation of EV-D68 strains from genetic clade D and sub-clade B3 as in previous years. Our results show the value of environmental surveillance (ES) for the early detection of circulating and clinically relevant human viruses. The use of a next-generation sequencing (NGS) approach helped us to estimate the prevalence of EV-D68 viruses among EV strains from other EV serotypes and to detect EV-D68 minor variants. The utility of ES at reducing gaps in virus surveillance for EV-D68 and the possible impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions introduced to control the COVID-19 pandemic on EV-D68 transmission dynamics are discussed.

Enterovirus D68-Associated Acute Respiratory Illness ─ New Vaccine Surveillance Network, United States, July-November 2018-2020

Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) is associated with a broad spectrum of illnesses, including mild to severe acute respiratory illness (ARI) and acute flaccid myelitis (AFM). Enteroviruses, including EV-D68, are typically detected in the United States during late summer through fall, with year-to-year fluctuations. Before 2014, EV-D68 was infrequently reported to CDC (1). However, numbers of EV-D68 detection have increased in recent years, with a biennial pattern observed during 2014-2018 in the United States, after the expansion of surveillance and wider availability of molecular testing. In 2014, a national outbreak of EV-D68 was detected (2). EV-D68 was also reported in 2016 via local (3) and passive national (4) surveillance. EV-D68 detections were limited in 2017, but substantial circulation was observed in 2018 (5). To assess recent levels of circulation, EV-D68 detections in respiratory specimens collected from patients aged <18 years* with ARI evaluated in emergency departments (EDs) or admitted to one of seven U.S. medical centers^† within the New Vaccine Surveillance Network (NVSN) were summarized. This report provides a provisional description of EV-D68 detections during July-November in 2018, 2019 and 2020, and describes the demographic and clinical characteristics of these patients. In 2018, a total of 382 EV-D68 detections in respiratory specimens obtained from patients aged <18 years with ARI were reported by NVSN; the number decreased to six detections in 2019 and 30 in 2020. Among patients aged <18 years with EV-D68 in 2020, 22 (73%) were non-Hispanic Black (Black) persons. EV-D68 detections in 2020 were lower than anticipated based on the biennial circulation pattern observed since 2014. The circulation of EV-D68 in 2020 might have been limited by widespread COVID-19 mitigation measures; how these changes in behavior might influence the timing and levels of circulation in future years is unknown. Ongoing monitoring of EV-D68 detections is warranted for preparedness for EV-D68-associated ARI and AFM.

Quantifying the Impact of COVID-19 Nonpharmaceutical Interventions on Influenza Transmission in the United States

BACKGROUND

Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been implemented to suppress transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Evidence indicates that NPIs against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) may also have effects on transmission of seasonal influenza.

METHODS

In this study, we use an absolute humidity-driven susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible (SIRS) model to quantify the reduction of influenza incidence and transmission in the United States and US Department of Health and Human Services regions after implementation of NPIs in 2020. We investigate long-term effect of NPIs on influenza incidence by projecting influenza transmission at the national scale over the next 5 years, using the SIRS model.

RESULTS

We estimate that incidence of influenza A/H1 and B, which circulated in early 2020, was reduced by more than 60% in the United States during the first 10 weeks following implementation of NPIs. The reduction of influenza transmission exhibits clear geographical variation. After the control measures are relaxed, potential accumulation of susceptibility to influenza infection may lead to a large outbreak, the scale of which may be affected by length of the intervention period and duration of immunity to influenza.

CONCLUSIONS

Healthcare systems need to prepare for potential influenza patient surges and advocate vaccination and continued precautions.

Induced intra- and intermolecular template switching as a therapeutic mechanism against RNA viruses

Viral RNA-dependent RNA polymerases (RdRps) are a target for broad-spectrum antiviral therapeutic agents. Recently, we demonstrated that incorporation of the T-1106 triphosphate, a pyrazine-carboxamide ribonucleotide, into nascent RNA increases pausing and backtracking by the poliovirus RdRp. Here, by monitoring enterovirus A-71 RdRp dynamics during RNA synthesis using magnetic tweezers, we identify the "backtracked" state as an intermediate used by the RdRp for copy-back RNA synthesis and homologous recombination. Cell-based assays and RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) experiments further demonstrate that the pyrazine-carboxamide ribonucleotide stimulates these processes during infection. These results suggest that pyrazine-carboxamide ribonucleotides do not induce lethal mutagenesis or chain termination but function by promoting template switching and formation of defective viral genomes. We conclude that RdRp-catalyzed intra- and intermolecular template switching can be induced by pyrazine-carboxamide ribonucleotides, defining an additional mechanistic class of antiviral ribonucleotides with potential for broad-spectrum activity.

Pan-3C Protease Inhibitor Rupintrivir Binds SARS-CoV-2 Main Protease in a Unique Binding Mode

Rupintrivir targets the 3C cysteine proteases of the picornaviridae family, which includes rhinoviruses and enteroviruses that cause a range of human diseases. Despite being a pan-3C protease inhibitor, rupintrivir activity is extremely weak against the homologous 3C-like protease of SARS-CoV-2. In this study, the crystal structures of rupintrivir were determined bound to enterovirus 68 (EV68) 3C protease and the 3C-like main protease (Mpro) from SARS-CoV-2. While the EV68 3C protease-rupintrivir structure was similar to previously determined complexes with other picornavirus 3C proteases, rupintrivir bound in a unique conformation to the active site of SARS-CoV-2 Mpro splitting the catalytic cysteine and histidine residues. This bifurcation of the catalytic dyad may provide a novel approach for inhibiting cysteine proteases.

The impact of long-term non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 epidemic dynamics and control: the value and limitations of early models

Mathematical models of epidemics are important tools for predicting epidemic dynamics and evaluating interventions. Yet, because early models are built on limited information, it is unclear how long they will accurately capture epidemic dynamics. Using a stochastic SEIR model of COVID-19 fitted to reported deaths, we estimated transmission parameters at different time points during the first wave of the epidemic (March-June, 2020) in Santa Clara County, California. Although our estimated basic reproduction number ([Formula: see text]) remained stable from early April to late June (with an overall median of 3.76), our estimated effective reproduction number ([Formula: see text]) varied from 0.18 to 1.02 in April before stabilizing at 0.64 on 27 May. Between 22 April and 27 May, our model accurately predicted dynamics through June; however, the model did not predict rising summer cases after shelter-in-place orders were relaxed in June, which, in early July, was reflected in cases but not yet in deaths. While models are critical for informing intervention policy early in an epidemic, their performance will be limited as epidemic dynamics evolve. This paper is one of the first to evaluate the accuracy of an early epidemiological compartment model over time to understand the value and limitations of models during unfolding epidemics.

Discovery of Potent and Broad-Spectrum Pyrazolopyridine-Containing Antivirals against Enteroviruses D68, A71, and Coxsackievirus B3 by Targeting the Viral 2C Protein

The enterovirus genus of the picornavirus family contains many important human pathogens. EV-D68 primarily infects children, and the disease manifestations range from respiratory illnesses to neurological complications such as acute flaccid myelitis (AFM). EV-A71 is a major pathogen for the hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in children and can also lead to AFM and death in severe cases. CVB3 infection can cause cardiac arrhythmias, acute heart failure, as well as type 1 diabetes. There is currently no FDA-approved antiviral for any of these enteroviruses. In this study, we report our discovery and development of pyrazolopyridine-containing small molecules with potent and broad-spectrum antiviral activity against multiple strains of EV-D68, EV-A71, and CVB3. Serial viral passage experiments, coupled with reverse genetics and thermal shift binding assays, suggested that these molecules target the viral protein 2C. Overall, the pyrazolopyridine inhibitors represent a promising class of candidates for the urgently needed nonpolio enterovirus antivirals.