Using the systematic review methodology to evaluate factors that influence the persistence of influenza virus in environmental matrices

Dependence on relative humidity in the formation of reactive oxygen species in water droplets

Water microdroplets (7 to 11 µm average diameter, depending on flow rate) are sprayed in a closed chamber at ambient temperature, whose relative humidity (RH) is controlled. The resulting concentration of ROS (reactive oxygen species) formed in the microdroplets, measured by the amount of hydrogen peroxide (H2O2), is determined by nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) and by spectrofluorimetric assays after the droplets are collected. The results are found to agree closely with one another. In addition, hydrated hydroxyl radical cations (•OH-H3O+) are recorded from the droplets using mass spectrometry and superoxide radical anions (•O2-) and hydroxyl radicals (•OH) by electron paramagnetic resonance spectroscopy. As the RH varies from 15 to 95%, the concentration of H2O2 shows a marked rise by a factor of about 3.5 in going from 15 to 50%, then levels off. By replacing the H2O of the sprayed water with deuterium oxide (D2O) but keeping the gas surrounding droplets with H2O, mass spectrometric analysis of the hydrated hydroxyl radical cations demonstrates that the water in the air plays a dominant role in producing H2O2 and other ROS, which accounts for the variation with RH. As RH increases, the droplet evaporation rate decreases. These two facts help us understand why viruses in droplets both survive better at low RH values, as found in indoor air in the wintertime, and are disinfected more effectively at higher RH values, as found in indoor air in the summertime, thus explaining the recognized seasonality of airborne viral infections.

The impact of anthropogenic climate change on pediatric viral diseases

The adverse effects of climate change on human health are unfolding in real time. Environmental fragmentation is amplifying spillover of viruses from wildlife to humans. Increasing temperatures are expanding mosquito and tick habitats, introducing vector-borne viruses into immunologically susceptible populations. More frequent flooding is spreading water-borne viral pathogens, while prolonged droughts reduce regional capacity to prevent and respond to disease outbreaks with adequate water, sanitation, and hygiene resources. Worsening air quality and altered transmission seasons due to an increasingly volatile climate may exacerbate the impacts of respiratory viruses. Furthermore, both extreme weather events and long-term climate variation are causing the destruction of health systems and large-scale migrations, reshaping health care delivery in the face of an evolving global burden of viral disease. Because of their immunological immaturity, differences in physiology (e.g., size), dependence on caregivers, and behavioral traits, children are particularly vulnerable to climate change. This investigation into the unique pediatric viral threats posed by an increasingly inhospitable world elucidates potential avenues of targeted programming and uncovers future research questions to effect equitable, actionable change. IMPACT: A review of the effects of climate change on viral threats to pediatric health, including zoonotic, vector-borne, water-borne, and respiratory viruses, as well as distal threats related to climate-induced migration and health systems. A unique focus on viruses offers a more in-depth look at the effect of climate change on vector competence, viral particle survival, co-morbidities, and host behavior. An examination of children as a particularly vulnerable population provokes programming tailored to their unique set of vulnerabilities and encourages reflection on equitable climate adaptation frameworks.

The effects of weather and mobility on respiratory viruses dynamics before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA and Canada

The flu season is caused by a combination of different pathogens, including influenza viruses (IVS), that cause the flu, and non-influenza respiratory viruses (NIRVs), that cause common colds or influenza-like illness. These viruses exhibit similar dynamics and meteorological conditions have historically been regarded as a principal modulator of their epidemiology, with outbreaks in the winter and almost no circulation during the summer, in temperate regions. However, after the emergence of SARS-CoV2, in late 2019, the dynamics of these respiratory viruses were strongly perturbed worldwide: some infections displayed near-eradication, while others experienced temporal shifts or occurred "off-season". This disruption raised questions regarding the dominant role of weather while also providing an unique opportunity to investigate the roles of different determinants on the epidemiological dynamics of IVs and NIRVs. Here, we employ statistical analysis and modelling to test the effects of weather and mobility in viral dynamics, before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Leveraging epidemiological surveillance data on several respiratory viruses, from Canada and the USA, from 2016 to 2023, we found that whereas in the pre-COVID-19 pandemic period, weather had a strong effect, in the pandemic period the effect of weather was strongly reduced and mobility played a more relevant role. These results, together with previous studies, indicate that behavioral changes resulting from the non-pharmacological interventions implemented to control SARS-CoV2, interfered with the dynamics of other respiratory viruses, and that the past dynamical equilibrium was disturbed, and perhaps permanently altered, by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Block the Spread: Barriers to Transmission of Influenza Viruses

Respiratory viruses, such as influenza viruses, cause significant morbidity and mortality worldwide through seasonal epidemics and sporadic pandemics. Influenza viruses transmit through multiple modes including contact (either direct or through a contaminated surface) and inhalation of expelled aerosols. Successful human to human transmission requires an infected donor who expels virus into the environment, a susceptible recipient, and persistence of the expelled virus within the environment. The relative efficiency of each mode can be altered by viral features, environmental parameters, donor and recipient host characteristics, and viral persistence. Interventions to mitigate transmission of influenza viruses can target any of these factors. In this review, we discuss many aspects of influenza virus transmission, including the systems to study it, as well as the impact of natural barriers and various nonpharmaceutical and pharmaceutical interventions.

Estimation of influenza incidence and analysis of epidemic characteristics from 2009 to 2022 in Zhejiang Province, China

Background

Influenza infection causes a huge burden every year, affecting approximately 8% of adults and approximately 25% of children and resulting in approximately 400,000 respiratory deaths worldwide. However, based on the number of reported influenza cases, the actual prevalence of influenza may be greatly underestimated. The purpose of this study was to estimate the incidence rate of influenza and determine the true epidemiological characteristics of this virus.

Methods

The number of influenza cases and the prevalence of ILIs among outpatients in Zhejiang Province were obtained from the China Disease Control and Prevention Information System. Specimens were sampled from some cases and sent to laboratories for influenza nucleic acid testing. Random forest was used to establish an influenza estimation model based on the influenza-positive rate and the percentage of ILIs among outpatients. Furthermore, the moving epidemic method (MEM) was applied to calculate the epidemic threshold for different intensity levels. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify the annual change in influenza incidence. The seasonal trends of influenza were detected by wavelet analysis.

Results

From 2009 to 2021, a total of 990,016 influenza cases and 8 deaths were reported in Zhejiang Province. The numbers of estimated influenza cases from 2009 to 2018 were 743,449, 47,635, 89,026, 132,647, 69,218, 190,099, 204,606, 190,763, 267,168 and 364,809, respectively. The total number of estimated influenza cases is 12.11 times the number of reported cases. The APC of the estimated annual incidence rate was 23.33 (95% CI: 13.2 to 34.4) from 2011 to 2019, indicating a constant increasing trend. The intensity levels of the estimated incidence from the epidemic threshold to the very high-intensity threshold were 18.94 cases per 100,000, 24.14 cases per 100,000, 141.55 cases per 100,000, and 309.34 cases per 100,000, respectively. From the first week of 2009 to the 39th week of 2022, there were a total of 81 weeks of epidemics: the epidemic period reached a high intensity in 2 weeks, the epidemic period was at a moderate intensity in 75 weeks, and the epidemic period was at a low intensity in 2 weeks. The average power was significant on the 1-year scale, semiannual scale, and 115-week scale, and the average power of the first two cycles was significantly higher than that of the other cycles. In the period from the 20th week to the 35th week, the Pearson correlation coefficients between the time series of influenza onset and the positive rate of pathogens, including A(H3N2), A (H1N1)pdm2009, B(Victoria) and B(Yamagata), were - 0.089 (p = 0.021), 0.497 (p < 0.001), -0.062 (p = 0.109) and - 0.084 (p = 0.029), respectively. In the period from the 36th week of the first year to the 19th week of the next year, the Pearson correlation coefficients between the time series of influenza onset and the positive rate of pathogens, including A(H3N2), A (H1N1)pdm2009, B(Victoria) and B(Yamagata), were 0.516 (p < 0.001), 0.148 (p < 0.001), 0.292 (p < 0.001) and 0.271 (p < 0.001), respectively.

Conclusion

The disease burden of influenza has been seriously underestimated in the past. An appropriate method for estimating the incidence rate of influenza may be to comprehensively consider the influenza-positive rate as well as the percentage of ILIs among outpatients. The intensity level of the estimated incidence from the epidemic threshold to the very high-intensity threshold was calculated, thus yielding a quantitative standard for judging the influenza prevalence level in the future. The incidence of influenza showed semi-annual peaks in Zhejiang Province, including a main peak from December to January of the next year followed by a peak in summer. Furthermore, the driving factors of the influenza peaks were preliminarily explored. While the peak in summer was mainly driven by pathogens of A(H3N2), the peak in winter was alternately driven by various pathogens. Our research suggests that the government urgently needs to address barriers to vaccination and actively promote vaccines through primary care providers.

The Role of Airborne Particles in the Epidemiology of Clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Virus in Commercial Poultry Production Units

Since October 2021, Europe has experienced the largest avian influenza virus (AIV) epizootic, caused by clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 high pathogenicity AIV (HPAIV), with over 284 poultry infected premises (IPs) and 2480 dead H5N1-positive wild birds detected in Great Britain alone. Many IPs have presented as geographical clusters, raising questions about the lateral spread between premises by airborne particles. Airborne transmission over short distances has been observed for some AIV strains. However, the risk of airborne spread of this strain remains to be elucidated. We conducted extensive sampling from IPs where clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 HPAIVs were confirmed during the 2022/23 epizootic, each representing a major poultry species (ducks, turkeys, and chickens). A range of environmental samples were collected inside and outside houses, including deposited dust, feathers, and other potential fomites. Viral RNA (vRNA) and infectious viruses were detected in air samples collected from inside and outside but in close proximity to infected houses, with vRNA alone being detected at greater distances (≤10 m) outside. Some dust samples collected outside of the affected houses contained infectious viruses, while feathers from the affected houses, located up to 80 m away, only contained vRNA. Together, these data suggest that airborne particles harboring infectious HPAIV can be translocated short distances (<10 m) through the air, while macroscopic particles containing vRNA might travel further (≤80 m). Therefore, the potential for airborne transmission of clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 HPAIV between premises is considered low. Other factors, including indirect contact with wild birds and the efficiency of biosecurity, represent greater importance in disease incursion.

The influences of the East Asian Monsoon on the spatio-temporal pattern of seasonal influenza activity in China

Previous research has extensively studied the seasonalities of human influenza infections and the effect of specific climatic factors in different regions. However, there is limited understanding of the influences of monsoons. This study applied generalized additive model with monthly surveillance data from mainland China to explore the influences of the East Asian Monsoon on the spatio-temporal pattern of seasonal influenza in China. The results suggested two influenza active periods in northern China and three active periods in southern China. The study found that the northerly advancement of East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) influences the summer influenza spatio-temporal patterns in both southern and northern China. At the interannual scale, the north-south converse effect of EASM on influenza activity is mainly due to the converse effect of EASM on humidity and precipitation. Within the annual scale, influenza activity in southern China gradually reaches its maximum during the summer exacerbated by the northerly advancement of EASM. Furthermore, the winter epidemic in China is related to the low temperature and humidity influenced by the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM). Moreover, the active period in transition season is related partially to the large rapid temperature change influenced by the transition of EAWM and EASM. Despite the delayed onset and instability, the climatic condition influenced by the East Asian Monsoon is one of the potential key drivers of influenza activity.

Cross-sectional telephone surveys as a tool to study epidemiological factors and monitor seasonal influenza activity in Malta

Background

Seasonal influenza has major implications for healthcare services as outbreaks often lead to high activity levels in health systems. Being able to predict when such outbreaks occur is vital. Mathematical models have extensively been used to predict epidemics of infectious diseases such as seasonal influenza and to assess effectiveness of control strategies. Availability of comprehensive and reliable datasets used to parametrize these models is limited. In this paper we combine a unique epidemiological dataset collected in Malta through General Practitioners (GPs) with a novel method using cross-sectional surveys to study seasonal influenza dynamics in Malta in 2014–2016, to include social dynamics and self-perception related to seasonal influenza.

Methods

Two cross-sectional public surveys (n = 406 per survey) were performed by telephone across the Maltese population in 2014–15 and 2015–16 influenza seasons. Survey results were compared with incidence data (diagnosed seasonal influenza cases) collected by GPs in the same period and with Google Trends data for Malta. Information was collected on whether participants recalled their health status in past months, occurrences of influenza symptoms, hospitalisation rates due to seasonal influenza, seeking GP advice, and other medical information.

Results

We demonstrate that cross-sectional surveys are a reliable alternative data source to medical records. The two surveys gave comparable results, indicating that the level of recollection among the public is high. Based on two seasons of data, the reporting rate in Malta varies between 14 and 22%. The comparison with Google Trends suggests that the online searches peak at about the same time as the maximum extent of the epidemic, but the public interest declines and returns to background level. We also found that the public intensively searched the Internet for influenza-related terms even when number of cases was low.

Conclusions

Our research shows that a telephone survey is a viable way to gain deeper insight into a population’s self-perception of influenza and its symptoms and to provide another benchmark for medical statistics provided by GPs and Google Trends. The information collected can be used to improve epidemiological modelling of seasonal influenza and other infectious diseases, thus effectively contributing to public health.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-11862-x.

Climatic signatures in the different COVID-19 pandemic waves across both hemispheres

The roles of climate and true seasonal signatures in the epidemiology of emergent pathogens, and that of SARS-CoV-2 in particular, remain poorly understood. With a statistical method designed to detect transitory associations, we show, for COVID-19 cases, strong consistent negative effects of both temperature and absolute humidity at large spatial scales. At finer spatial resolutions, we substantiate these connections during the seasonal rise and fall of COVID-19. Strong disease responses are identified in the first two waves, suggesting clear ranges for temperature and absolute humidity that are similar to those formerly described for seasonal influenza. For COVID-19, in all studied regions and pandemic waves, a process-based model that incorporates a temperature-dependent transmission rate outperforms baseline formulations with no driver or a sinusoidal seasonality. Our results, so far, classify COVID-19 as a seasonal low-temperature infection and suggest an important contribution of the airborne pathway in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, with implications for the control measures we discuss.

Surveillance and Sequestration Strategies to Reduce the Likelihood of Transporting Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus Contaminated Layer Manure

Movement and land application of manure is a known risk factor for secondary spread of avian influenza viruses. During an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), movement of untreated (i.e., fresh) manure from premises known to be infected is prohibited. However, moving manure from apparently healthy (i.e., clinically normal) flocks may be critical, because some egg-layer facilities have limited on-site storage capacity. The objective of this analysis was to evaluate targeted dead-bird active surveillance real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) testing protocols that could be used for the managed movement of manure from apparently healthy egg-layer flocks located in an HPAI control area. We also evaluated sequestration, which is the removal of manure from any contact with chickens, or with manure from other flocks, for a period of time, while the flock of origin is actively monitored for the presence of HPAI virus. We used stochastic simulation models to predict the chances of moving a load of contaminated manure, and the quantity of HPAI virus in an 8 metric ton (8000 kg) load of manure moved, before HPAI infection could be detected in the flock. We show that the likelihood of moving contaminated manure decreases as the length of the sequestration period increases from 3 to 10 days (e.g., for a typical contact rate, with a sample pool size of 11 swabs, the likelihood decreased from 48% to <1%). The total quantity of feces from HPAI-infectious birds in a manure load moved also decreases. Results also indicate that active surveillance protocols using 11 swabs per pool result in a lower likelihood of moving contaminated manure relative to protocols using five swabs per pool. Simulation model results from this study are useful to inform further risk evaluation of HPAI spread through pathways associated with manure movement and further evaluation of biosecurity measures intended to reduce those risks.

Influenza Virus Infections in Cats

In the past, cats were considered resistant to influenza. Today, we know that they are susceptible to some influenza A viruses (IAVs) originating in other species. Usually, the outcome is only subclinical infection or a mild fever. However, outbreaks of feline disease caused by canine H3N2 IAV with fever, tachypnoea, sneezing, coughing, dyspnoea and lethargy are occasionally noted in shelters. In one such outbreak, the morbidity rate was 100% and the mortality rate was 40%. Recently, avian H7N2 IAV infection occurred in cats in some shelters in the USA, inducing mostly mild respiratory disease. Furthermore, cats are susceptible to experimental infection with the human H3N2 IAV that caused the pandemic in 1968. Several studies indicated that cats worldwide could be infected by H1N1 IAV during the subsequent human pandemic in 2009. In one shelter, severe cases with fatalities were noted. Finally, the highly pathogenic avian H5N1 IAV can induce a severe, fatal disease in cats, and can spread via cat-to-cat contact. In this review, the Advisory Board on Cat Diseases (ABCD), a scientifically independent board of experts in feline medicine from 11 European countries, summarises current data regarding the aetiology, epidemiology, pathogenesis, clinical picture, diagnostics, and control of feline IAV infections, as well as the zoonotic risks.

Systematic review of the effects of environmental factors on virus inactivation: implications for coronavirus disease 2019

Environmental factors such as temperature and relative humidity can affect the inactivation and transmission of coronaviruses. By reviewing medical experiments on virus survival and virus transmission between infected and susceptible species in different temperature and humidity conditions, this study explores the influence of temperature and relative humidity on the survival and transmission of viruses, and provides suggestions, with experimental evidence, for the environmental control measures of Coronavirus Disease 2019. The results indicated that (1) virus viability and infectivity is increased at a low temperature of 5 ℃ and reduced at higher temperatures. (2) Virus survival and transmission is highly efficient in a dry environment with low relative humidity, and also in a wet environment with high relative humidity, and it is minimal at intermediate relative humidity. Therefore, in indoor environments, the lack of heating in winter or overventilation, leading to low indoor temperature, can help virus survival and help susceptible people being infected. On the contrary, modulating the indoor relative humidity at an intermediate level is conducive to curb epidemic outbreaks.

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Viruses at the Wild-Domestic Bird Interface in Europe: Future Directions for Research and Surveillance

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks in wild birds and poultry are no longer a rare phenomenon in Europe. In the past 15 years, HPAI outbreaks—in particular those caused by H5 viruses derived from the A/Goose/Guangdong/1/1996 lineage that emerged in southeast Asia in 1996—have been occuring with increasing frequency in Europe. Between 2005 and 2020, at least ten HPAI H5 incursions were identified in Europe resulting in mass mortalities among poultry and wild birds. Until 2009, the HPAI H5 virus outbreaks in Europe were caused by HPAI H5N1 clade 2.2 viruses, while from 2014 onwards HPAI H5 clade 2.3.4.4 viruses dominated outbreaks, with abundant genetic reassortments yielding subtypes H5N1, H5N2, H5N3, H5N4, H5N5, H5N6 and H5N8. The majority of HPAI H5 virus detections in wild and domestic birds within Europe coincide with southwest/westward fall migration and large local waterbird aggregations during wintering. In this review we provide an overview of HPAI H5 virus epidemiology, ecology and evolution at the interface between poultry and wild birds based on 15 years of avian influenza virus surveillance in Europe, and assess future directions for HPAI virus research and surveillance, including the integration of whole genome sequencing, host identification and avian ecology into risk-based surveillance and analyses.

A literature review of the use of environmental sampling in the surveillance of avian influenza viruses

This literature review provides an overview of use of environmental samples (ES) such as faeces, water, air, mud and swabs of surfaces in avian influenza (AI) surveillance programs, focussing on effectiveness, advantages and gaps in knowledge. ES have been used effectively for AI surveillance since the 1970s. Results from ES have enhanced understanding of the biology of AI viruses in wild birds and in markets, of links between human and avian influenza, provided early warning of viral incursions, allowed assessment of effectiveness of control and preventive measures, and assisted epidemiological studies in outbreaks, both avian and human. Variation exists in the methods and protocols used, and no internationally recognized guidelines exist on the use of ES and data management. Few studies have performed direct comparisons of ES versus live bird samples (LBS). Results reported so far demonstrate reliance on ES will not be sufficient to detect virus in all cases when it is present, especially when the prevalence of infection/contamination is low. Multiple sample types should be collected. In live bird markets, ES from processing/selling areas are more likely to test positive than samples from bird holding areas. When compared to LBS, ES is considered a cost-effective, simple, rapid, flexible, convenient and acceptable way of achieving surveillance objectives. As a non-invasive technique, it can minimize effects on animal welfare and trade in markets and reduce impacts on wild bird communities. Some limitations of environmental sampling methods have been identified, such as the loss of species-specific or information on the source of virus, and taxonomic-level analyses, unless additional methods are applied. Some studies employing ES have not provided detailed methods. In others, where ES and LBS are collected from the same site, positive results have not been assigned to specific sample types. These gaps should be remedied in future studies.

Fate of respiratory droplets in tropical vs temperate environments and implications for SARS-CoV-2 transmission

The new pandemic of SARS-CoV-2 has shown stark differences in number of affected patients between countries in the tropics and those with temperate environments. Though there have been many theories on reasons for these differences, we hypothesise that this could be due to differences in the fate of respiratory droplets in the two environments. A simple understanding of the mechanics of droplet size, dispersion and displacement could help infection control and public health measures to minimize spread and mitigate the risk of people getting infected especially in hotspots like hospital environments or other closed spaces. This paper discusses the possibility of differences in number of infections and spread between different countries based on the spread of droplets.

Seasonality of Respiratory Viral Infections: Will COVID-19 Follow Suit?

Respiratory viruses, including coronaviruses, are known to have a high incidence of infection during winter, especially in temperate regions. Dry and cold conditions during winter are the major drivers for increased respiratory tract infections as they increase virus stability and transmission and weaken the host immune system. The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerged in China in December 2020 and swiftly spread across the globe causing substantial health and economic burdens. Several countries are battling with the second wave of the virus after a devastating first wave of spread, while some are still in the midst of their first wave. It remains unclear whether SARS-CoV-2 will eventually become seasonal or will continue to circulate year-round. In an attempt to address this question, we review the current knowledge regarding the seasonality of respiratory viruses including coronaviruses and the viral and host factors that govern their seasonal pattern. Moreover, we discuss the properties of SARS-CoV-2 and the potential impact of meteorological factors on its spread.

Water and Pathogenic Viruses Inactivation—Food Engineering Perspectives

Water is an essential component of food structures and biological materials. The importance of water as a parameter affecting virion stability and inactivation has been recognized across disciplinary areas. The large number of virus species, differences in spreading, likelihood of foodborne infections, unknown infective doses, and difficulties of infective virus quantification are often limiting experimental approaches to establish accurate data required for detailed understanding of virions’ stability and inactivation kinetics in various foods. Furthermore, non-foodborne viruses, as shown by the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) pandemic, may spread within the food chain. Traditional food engineering benefits from kinetic data on effects of relative humidity (RH) and temperature on virion inactivation. The stability of enteric viruses, human norovirus (HuNoV), and hepatitis A (HAV) virions in food materials and their resistance against inactivation in traditional food processing and preservation is well recognized. It appears that temperature-dependence of virus inactivation is less affected by virus strains than differences in temperature and RH sensitivity of individual virus species. Pathogenic viruses are stable at low temperatures typical of food storage conditions. A significant change in activation energy above typical protein denaturation temperatures suggests a rapid inactivation of virions. Furthermore, virus inactivation mechanisms seem to vary according to temperature. Although little is known on the effects of water on virions’ resistance during food processing and storage, dehydration, low RH conditions, and freezing stabilize virions. Enveloped virions tend to have a high stability at low RH, but low temperature and high RH may also stabilize such virions on metal and other surfaces for several days. Food engineering has contributed to significant developments in stabilization of nutrients, flavors, and sensitive components in food materials which provides a knowledge base for development of technologies to inactivate virions in foods and environment. Novel food processing, particularly high pressure processing (HPP) and cold plasma technologies, seem to provide efficient means for virion inactivation and food quality retention prior to packaging or food preservation by traditional technologies.

Weathering the pandemic: How the Caribbean Basin can use viral and environmental patterns to predict, prepare, and respond to COVID-19

The 2020 coronavirus pandemic is developing at different paces throughout the world. Some areas, like the Caribbean Basin, have yet to see the virus strike at full force. When it does, there is reasonable evidence to suggest the consequent COVID‐19 outbreaks will overwhelm healthcare systems and economies. This is particularly concerning in the Caribbean as pandemics can have disproportionately higher mortality impacts on lower and middle‐income countries. Preliminary observations from our team and others suggest that temperature and climatological factors could influence the spread of this novel coronavirus, making spatiotemporal predictions of its infectiousness possible. This review studies geographic and time‐based distribution of known respiratory viruses in the Caribbean Basin in an attempt to foresee how the pandemic will develop in this region. This review is meant to aid in planning short‐ and long‐term interventions to manage outbreaks at the international, national, and subnational levels in the region.

Inter‐tropical regions have seen a slower spread of SARS‐CoV‐2 compared to temperate ones, suggesting viral spreading could likely be influenced by environmental factors.

Other coronaviruses also seem to respond to environmental factors, with peaks closely following the geotemporal patterns of influenza.

In the Caribbean, timing interventions to fight COVID‐19 around the projected peaks of influenza is a reasonable public health approach.

Extraction and Detection of Avian Influenza Virus From Wetland Sediment Using Enrichment-Based Targeted Resequencing

Early virus detection and characterization is key to successful avian influenza virus (AIV) surveillance for the health of humans as well as domestic poultry. We explored a novel sampling approach and molecular strategy using sediment from wetlands and outdoor waterbodies on poultry farms as a population-level proxy of AIV activity in waterfowls. RNA was extracted using the MoBio RNA PowerSoil Total RNA isolation kit with additional chloroform extraction steps to reduce PCR inhibition. AIV matrix protein (MP) gene was detected in 42/345 (12.2%) samples by RT-qPCR; an additional 64 (18.6%) samples showed evidence of amplification below the threshold and were categorized as “suspect positive.” Enrichment-based targeted resequencing (TR) identified AIV sequences in 79/345 (22.9%) samples. TR probes were designed for MP, hemagglutinin (HA), and neuraminidase (NA), however PB2 and PA were also identified. Although RT-qPCR and TR only had fair-moderate agreement, RT-qPCR positivity was predictive of TR-positivity both when using only strictly positive RT-qPCR samples (OR = 11.29) and when coding suspect positives as positive (OR = 7.56). This indicates that RT-qPCR could be used as a screening tool to select samples for virus characterization by TR and that future studies should consider RT-qPCR suspect positives to be positive samples for subsequent resequencing when avoiding false negatives is the priority, for instance in a diagnostic test, and to consider suspect positives to be negative samples when cost efficiency over a large number of samples is the priority, for instance in a surveillance program. A total of 13 HA (H1-7, H9-13, H16) and 9 NA (N1-9) subtypes were identified, with a maximum of 8 HA and 8 NA subtypes detected in a single sample. The optimized RNA extraction and targeted resequencing methods provided increased virus detection and subtyping characterization that could be implemented in an AIV surveillance system.

Seasonality of Respiratory Viral Infections

The seasonal cycle of respiratory viral diseases has been widely recognized for thousands of years, as annual epidemics of the common cold and influenza disease hit the human population like clockwork in the winter season in temperate regions. Moreover, epidemics caused by viruses such as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and the newly emerging SARS-CoV-2 occur during the winter months. The mechanisms underlying the seasonal nature of respiratory viral infections have been examined and debated for many years. The two major contributing factors are the changes in environmental parameters and human behavior. Studies have revealed the effect of temperature and humidity on respiratory virus stability and transmission rates. More recent research highlights the importance of the environmental factors, especially temperature and humidity, in modulating host intrinsic, innate, and adaptive immune responses to viral infections in the respiratory tract. Here we review evidence of how outdoor and indoor climates are linked to the seasonality of viral respiratory infections. We further discuss determinants of host response in the seasonality of respiratory viruses by highlighting recent studies in the field.

Mechanistic insights into the effect of humidity on airborne influenza virus survival, transmission and incidence

Influenza incidence and seasonality, along with virus survival and transmission, appear to depend at least partly on humidity, and recent studies have suggested that absolute humidity (AH) is more important than relative humidity (RH) in modulating observed patterns. In this perspective article, we re-evaluate studies of influenza virus survival in aerosols, transmission in animal models and influenza incidence to show that the combination of temperature and RH is equally valid as AH as a predictor. Collinearity must be considered, as higher levels of AH are only possible at higher temperatures, where it is well established that virus decay is more rapid. In studies of incidence that employ meteorological data, outdoor AH may be serving as a proxy for indoor RH in temperate regions during the wintertime heating season. Finally, we present a mechanistic explanation based on droplet evaporation and its impact on droplet physics and chemistry for why RH is more likely than AH to modulate virus survival and transmission.

Mechanistic insights into the effect of humidity on airborne influenza virus survival, transmission and incidence

Influenza incidence and seasonality, along with virus survival and transmission, appear to depend at least partly on humidity, and recent studies have suggested that absolute humidity (AH) is more important than relative humidity (RH) in modulating observed patterns. In this perspective article, we re-evaluate studies of influenza virus survival in aerosols, transmission in animal models and influenza incidence to show that the combination of temperature and RH is equally valid as AH as a predictor. Collinearity must be considered, as higher levels of AH are only possible at higher temperatures, where it is well established that virus decay is more rapid. In studies of incidence that employ meteorological data, outdoor AH may be serving as a proxy for indoor RH in temperate regions during the wintertime heating season. Finally, we present a mechanistic explanation based on droplet evaporation and its impact on droplet physics and chemistry for why RH is more likely than AH to modulate virus survival and transmission.

Survival of the Enveloped Virus Phi6 in Droplets as a Function of Relative Humidity, Absolute Humidity, and Temperature

Infectious diseases caused by enveloped viruses, such as influenza, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), cause thousands of deaths and billions of dollars of economic losses per year. Studies have found a relationship among temperature, humidity, and influenza virus incidence, transmission, or survival; however, there are contradictory claims about whether absolute humidity (AH) or relative humidity (RH) is most important in mediating virus infectivity. Using the enveloped bacteriophage Phi6, which has been suggested as a surrogate for influenza viruses and coronaviruses, we designed a study to discern whether AH, RH, or temperature is a better predictor of virus survival in droplets. Our results show that Phi6 survived best at high (>85%) and low (<60%) RHs, with a significant decrease in infectivity at mid-range RHs (∼60 to 85%). At an AH of less than 22 g · m-3, the loss in infectivity was less than 2 orders of magnitude; however, when the AH was greater than 22 g · m-3, the loss in infectivity was typically greater than 6 orders of magnitude. At a fixed RH of 75%, infectivity was very sensitive to temperature, decreasing two orders of magnitude between 19°C and 25°C. We used random forest modeling to identify the best environmental predictors for modulating virus infectivity. The model explained 83% of variation in Phi6 infectivity and suggested that RH is the most important factor in controlling virus infectivity in droplets. This research provides novel information about the complex interplay between temperature, humidity, and the survival of viruses in droplets.IMPORTANCE Enveloped viruses are responsible for a number of infectious diseases resulting in thousands of deaths and billions of dollars of economic losses per year in the United States. There has been a lively debate in the literature over whether absolute humidity (AH) or relative humidity (RH) modulates virus infectivity. We designed a controlled study and used advanced statistical modeling techniques specifically to address this question. By providing an improved understanding of the relationship between environmental conditions and virus infectivity, our work will ultimately lead to improved strategies for predicting and controlling disease transmission.

Survival of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 Virus in Tissues Derived from Experimentally Infected Chickens

Eurasian lineage highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus has been a severe threat to the poultry industry since its emergence in 1996. The carcass or tissues derived from infected birds may present the risk of the virus spreading to humans, animals, and the surrounding environment. In this study, we investigated the survival of the virus in feather, muscle, and liver tissues collected from six chickens (Gallus gallus) experimentally infected with HPAI H5N1 virus. The tissues were stored at +4°C or +20°C, and viral isolation was performed at different times for 360 days. The maximum periods for viral survival were observed in samples stored at +4°C in all tissue types and were 240 days in feather tissues, 160 days in muscle, and 20 days in liver. The viral infectivity at +20°C was maintained for a maximum of 30 days in the feather tissues, 20 days in muscle, and 3 days in liver. The viral inactivation rates partly overlapped in the feather and muscle tissues at the two temperatures. The virus was inactivated rapidly in the liver. Our experimental results indicate that the tissue type and temperature can greatly influence the survival of HPAI H5N1 virus in the tissues of infected chickens.IMPORTANCE Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus of the H5N1 subtype can cause massive losses of poultry, and people need to handle a large number of chicken carcasses contaminated with the virus at outbreak sites. This study evaluated how long the virus can keep its infectivity in the three types of tissues derived from chickens infected with the virus. Our experimental results indicate that the virus can survive in tissues for a specific period of time depending on the tissue type and temperature. Our results are valuable for better understanding of viral ecology in the environment and for reducing the risk of the virus spreading via bird tissues contaminated with the virus.

Persistence of Low Pathogenic Influenza A Virus in Water: A Systematic Review and Quantitative Meta-Analysis

Avian influenza viruses are able to persist in the environment, in-between the transmission of the virus among its natural hosts. Quantifying the environmental factors that affect the persistence of avian influenza virus is important for influencing our ability to predict future outbreaks and target surveillance and control methods. We conducted a systematic review and quantitative meta-analysis of the environmental factors that affect the decay of low pathogenic avian influenza virus (LPAIV) in water. Abiotic factors affecting the persistence of LPAIV have been investigated for nearly 40 years, yet published data was produced by only 26 quantitative studies. These studies have been conducted by a small number of principal authors (n = 17) and have investigated a narrow range of environmental conditions, all of which were based in laboratories with limited reflection of natural conditions. The use of quantitative meta-analytic techniques provided the opportunity to assess persistence across a greater range of conditions than each individual study can achieve, through the estimation of mean effect-sizes and relationships among multiple variables. Temperature was the most influential variable, for both the strength and magnitude of the effect-size. Moderator variables explained a large proportion of the heterogeneity among effect-sizes. Salinity and pH were important factors, although future work is required to broaden the range of abiotic factors examined, as well as including further diurnal variation and greater environmental realism generally. We were unable to extract a quantitative effect-size estimate for approximately half (50.4%) of the reported experimental outcomes and we strongly recommend a minimum set of quantitative reporting to be included in all studies, which will allow robust assimilation and analysis of future findings. In addition we suggest possible means of increasing the applicability of future studies to the natural environment, and evaluating the biological content of natural waterbodies.

What is the evidence that point sources of anthropogenic effluent increase antibiotic resistance in the environment? Protocol for a systematic review

Herein we describe a protocol for a systematic review of the evidence on whether point sources of anthropogenic effluent are associated with an increase in antibiotic resistance in the adjacent environment. The review question was based on the Population, Exposure, Comparator, Outcome, Study Design (PECOS) framework as follows: Is the prevalence or concentration of antibiotic resistant bacteria or resistance genes (O) in soil, water, air or free-living wildlife (P) higher in close proximity to, or downstream from, known or suspected sources of anthropogenic effluent (E) compared to areas more distant from or upstream from these sources (C)? A comprehensive search strategy was created to capture all relevant, published literature. Criteria for two stages of eligibility screening were developed to exclude publications that were not relevant to the question, and determine if the study used a design that permitted estimation of an association between a source and levels of resistance. A decision matrix was created for assessment of risk of bias to internal validity due to sample selection bias, information bias, and confounding. The goal of this protocol is to provide a method for determining the state of knowledge about the effect of point sources on antibiotic resistance in the environment.

Characterization of Viral Load, Viability and Persistence of Influenza A Virus in Air and on Surfaces of Swine Production Facilities

Indirect transmission of influenza A virus (IAV) in swine is poorly understood and information is lacking on levels of environmental exposure encountered by swine and people during outbreaks of IAV in swine barns. We characterized viral load, viability and persistence of IAV in air and on surfaces during outbreaks in swine barns. IAV was detected in pigs, air and surfaces from five confirmed outbreaks with 48% (47/98) of oral fluid, 38% (32/84) of pen railing and 43% (35/82) of indoor air samples testing positive by IAV RT-PCR. IAV was isolated from air and oral fluids yielding a mixture of subtypes (H1N1, H1N2 and H3N2). Detection of IAV RNA from air was sustained during the outbreaks with maximum levels estimated between 7 and 11 days from reported onset. Our results indicate that during outbreaks of IAV in swine, aerosols and surfaces in barns contain significant levels of IAV potentially representing an exposure hazard to both swine and people.

Connecting the study of wild influenza with the potential for pandemic disease

Continuing outbreaks of pathogenic (H5N1) and pandemic (SOIVH1N1) influenza have underscored the need to understand the origin, characteristics, and evolution of novel influenza A virus (IAV) variants that pose a threat to human health. In the last 4-5years, focus has been placed on the organization of large-scale surveillance programs to examine the phylogenetics of avian influenza virus (AIV) and host-virus relationships in domestic and wild animals. Here we review the current gaps in wild animal and environmental surveillance and the current understanding of genetic signatures in potentially pandemic strains.

Comparison of spike and aerosol challenge tests for the recovery of viable influenza virus from non-woven fabrics

BACKGROUND

To experimentally determine the survival kinetics of influenza virus on personal protective equipment (PPE) and to evaluate the risk of virus transfer from PPE, it is important to compare the effects on virus recovery of the method used to contaminate the PPE with virus and the type of eluent used to recover it.

METHODS

Avian influenza virus (AIV) was applied as a liquid suspension (spike test) and as an aerosol to three types of non-woven fabrics [polypropylene (PP), polyester (PET), and polyamide (Nylon)] that are commonly used in the manufacture of PPE. This was followed by virus recovery using eight different eluents (phosphate-buffered saline, minimum essential medium, and 1.5% or 3.0% beef extract at pH 7, 8, or 9).

RESULTS

For spike tests, no statistically significant difference was found in virus recovery using any of the eluents tested. Hydrophobic surfaces (PP and PET) yielded higher spiked virus recovery than hydrophilic Nylon. From all materials, the virus recovery was much lower in aerosol challenge tests than in spike tests.

CONCLUSIONS

Significant differences were found in the recovery of viable AIV from non-woven fabrics between spike and aerosol challenge tests. The findings of this study demonstrate the need for realistic aerosol challenge tests rather than liquid spike tests in studies of virus survival on surfaces where airborne transmission of influenza virus may get involved.

Ecological factors driving avian influenza virus dynamics in Spanish wetland ecosystems

Studies exploring the ecological interactions between avian influenza viruses (AIV), natural hosts and the environment are scarce. Most work has focused on viral survival and transmission under laboratory conditions and through mathematical modelling. However, more integrated studies performed under field conditions are required to validate these results. In this study, we combined information on bird community, environmental factors and viral epidemiology to assess the contribution of biotic and abiotic factors in the occurrence of low pathogenic AIV in Spanish wetlands. For that purpose, seven locations in five different wetlands were studied during two years (2007–2009), including seven sampling visits by location. In each survey, fresh faeces (n = 4578) of wild birds and water samples were collected for viral detection. Also, the vegetation structure, water physical properties of wetlands, climatic conditions and wild bird community composition were determined. An overall AIV prevalence of 1.7%±0.4 was detected in faecal samples with important fluctuations among seasons and locations. Twenty-six AIV were isolated from the 78 RRT-PCR positive samples and eight different haemagglutinines and five neuraminidases were identified, being the combination H3N8 the most frequent. Variation partitioning procedures identified the combination of space and time variables as the most important pure factor – independently to other factors – explaining the variation in AIV prevalence (36.8%), followed by meteorological factor (21.5%) and wild bird community composition/vegetation structure (21.1%). These results contribute to the understanding of AIV ecological drivers in Spanish ecosystems and provide useful guidelines for AIV risk assessment identifying potential hotspots of AIV activity.

Analysis of alcohol-based hand sanitizer delivery systems: efficacy of foam, gel, and wipes against influenza A (H1N1) virus on hands

BACKGROUND

Minimal research has been published evaluating the effectiveness of hand hygiene delivery systems (ie, rubs, foams, or wipes) at removing viruses from hands. The purposes of this study were to determine the effect of several alcohol-based hand sanitizers in removing influenza A (H1N1) virus, and to compare the effectiveness of foam, gel, and hand wipe products.

METHODS

Hands of 30 volunteers were inoculated with H1N1 and randomized to treatment with foam, gel, or hand wipe applied to half of each volunteer's finger pads. The log(10) count of each subject's treated and untreated finger pads were averaged. Log(10) reductions were calculated from these differences and averaged within treatment group. Between-treatment analysis compared changes from the untreated finger pads using analysis of covariance with treatment as a factor and the average log(10) untreated finger pads as the covariate.

RESULTS

Log(10) counts on control finger pads were 2.7-5.3 log(10) of the 50% infectious dose for tissue culture (TCID(50)/0.1 mL) (mean, 3.8 ± 0.5 log(10) TCID(50)/0.1 mL), and treated finger pad counts for all test products were 0.5-1.9 log(10) TCID(50)/0.1 mL (mean, 0.53 ± 0.17 log(10) TCID(50)/0.1 mL). Treatments with all products resulted in a significant reduction in viral titers (>3 logs) at their respective exposure times that were statistically comparable.

CONCLUSIONS

All 3 delivery systems (foam, gel, and wipe) produced significantly reduced viral counts on hands.

Survival of influenza virus on hands and fomites in community and laboratory settings

BACKGROUND

Transmission dynamics modeling provides a practical method for virtual evaluation of the impact of public health interventions in response to prospective influenza pandemics and also may help determine the relative contribution of different modes of transmission to overall infection rates. Accurate estimates of longevity for all forms of viral particles are needed for such models to be useful.

METHODS

We conducted a time course study to determine the viability and longevity of H1N1 virus on naturally contaminated hands and household surfaces of 20 individuals with laboratory-confirmed infection. Participants coughed or sneezed into their hands, which were sampled immediately and again after 5, 10, and 30 minutes. Samples also were obtained from household surfaces handled by the participants immediately after coughing/sneezing. Clinically obtained H1N1 isolates were used to assess the viability and longevity of the virus on various artificially inoculated common household surfaces and human hands in a controlled laboratory setting. Viral detection was achieved by culture and real-time reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction.

RESULTS

The results suggest that H1N1 does not survive long on naturally contaminated skin and fomites, and that secretions deposited on hands by coughing or sneezing have a concentration of <2.15 × 10 to 2.94 × 10 TCID(50)/mL.

CONCLUSIONS

These data can be used to estimate the relative contribution of direct and indirect contact transmission on overall infection rates.