British Regional Heart Study: cardiovascular risk factors in middle-aged men in 24 towns

Association of ideal cardiovascular health and Life's Simple 7 metrics with incident heart failure among older men: the British Regional Heart Study

BACKGROUND

Ideal cardiovascular health (CVH) determined by categorisation of component Life's Simple 7 (LS7) metrics has been associated with reduced risk of heart failure (HF). However, few studies have explored the relationship between changes in CVH from middle to older age and HF incidence.

AIMS

We aim to investigate the association between LS7 metrics and their impact on HF incidence in older men. Additionally, we explore whether changes in CVH scores between middle and older age were associated with subsequent HF risk.

METHODS

The British Regional Heart Study is a prospective study of 7735 men, aged 40-59y at enrolment (1978-1980) from 24 British towns. Information on LS7 metrics was gathered at initial recruitment and again at re-examination 20y later. Follow-up for HF was conducted from re-examination onwards.

RESULTS

Among 3698 men (60-79y) without prior myocardial infarction or HF, 369 developed HF during a median follow-up of 15.8y. Ideal CVH was associated with significantly lower risk of HF relative to poor CVH after adjusting for age, social class and alcohol intake (HR 95%CI = 0.51 0.38-0.68). Men who maintained high CVH scores between baseline and 20y re-examination (high-high group) showed a significant 33% reduction in risk of HF (HR 95%CI= 0.67 0.51-0.87) compared to those with consistently low CVH scores. These associations persisted after adjustment for competing mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results highlight that a consistently healthy lifestyle, as reflected in a better CVH score maintained over an adult lifetime, is associated with lower HF risk in older men.

Carotid Intima-Media Thickness, Carotid Distensibility, and Incident Heart Failure in Older Men: The British Regional Heart Study

BACKGROUND

Carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) and carotid distensibility are markers of arterial change; however, little is known of the association with incident heart failure (HF). We aimed to assess this.

METHODS

This was a longitudinal analysis of data from the British Regional Heart Study, a prospective cohort study. A total of 1631 men aged 71 to 92 years, without a diagnosis of HF at baseline, were included. Between 2010 and 2012, participants completed a questionnaire, underwent a physical examination, and provided a fasting blood sample. CIMT and carotid artery distension were measured, and carotid distensibility was calculated. Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to assess the multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of incident HF by quartiles of CIMT and distensibility, excluding men with prevalent myocardial infarction.

RESULTS

The values used in the analysis were adjusted for age, social class, smoking, physical activity, alcohol status, body mass index, use of statins and antihypertensives, prevalent diabetes and stroke, pulse pressure, and presence of atrial arrhythmias. Lower carotid distensibility (bottom quartile) and higher CIMT (top quartile) were associated with increased risk of incident HF (HR, 2.55 [95% CI, 1.24-5.24]; P=0.01; and HR, 2.20 [95% CI, 1.14-4.23]; P=0.02, respectively). CIMT but not carotid distensibility was associated with incident myocardial infarction. The association between carotid distensibility and incident HF persisted after adjustment for incident myocardial infarction and CIMT (HR, 2.53 [95% CI, 1.23-5.22]; P=0.01); however, the association between CIMT and incident HF was attenuated after this adjustment (HR, 1.64 [95% CI, 0.84-3.21]; P=0.15).

CONCLUSIONS

Lower carotid distensibility and higher CIMT were associated with an increased risk of incident HF, despite adjustment for incident myocardial infarction.

Prospective associations between diet quality, dietary components, and risk of cardiometabolic multimorbidity in older British men

PURPOSE

Cardiometabolic multimorbidity (CMM) is a major public health challenge. This study investigated the prospective relationships between diet quality, dietary components, and risk of CMM in older British men.

METHODS

We used data from the British Regional Heart Study of 2873 men aged 60-79 free of myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and type 2 diabetes (T2D) at baseline. CMM was defined as the coexistence of two or more cardiometabolic diseases, including MI, stroke, and T2D. Sourcing baseline food frequency questionnaire, the Elderly Dietary Index (EDI), which was a diet quality score based on Mediterranean diet and MyPyramid for Older Adults, was generated. Cox proportional hazards regression and multi-state model were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 19.3 years, 891 participants developed first cardiometabolic disease (FCMD), and 109 developed CMM. Cox regression analyses found no significant association between baseline EDI and risk of CMM. However, fish/seafood consumption, a dietary component of the EDI score, was inversely associated with risk of CMM, with HR 0.44 (95% CI 0.26, 0.73) for consuming fish/seafood 1-2 days/week compared to less than 1 day/week after adjustment. Further analyses with multi-state model showed that fish/seafood consumption played a protective role in the transition from FCMD to CMM.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study did not find a significant association of baseline EDI with CMM but showed that consuming more fish/seafood per week was associated with a lower risk of transition from FCMD to CMM in older British men.

Old, Nonagenarians, and Centenarians in Cilento, Italy and the Association of Lifespan with the Level of Some Physicochemical Elements in Tap Drinking Water

Longevity, as a complex life-history trait, shares an ontogenetic relationship with other quantitative traits, such as epigenetic and environmental factors. Therefore, it is important to identify environmental factors that may modify the epigenome to establish healthy aging. This study explored the association between tap drinking water and longevity in Cilento, Italy, to understand whether trace elements in local drinking water may have an influence on old, nonagenarian, and centenarian people and promote their health and longevity. Data on population and water sources were collected through the National Demographic Statistics, the Cilento Municipal Archives, and the Cilento Integrated Water Service. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and a geographically weight regression (GWR) model were used to study the spatial relationship between the explanatory and outcome variables of longevity. The results of the study showed that the prevalence of longevity is concentrated in the central, northern and southeastern areas of the territory and that some trace elements present in tap water may contribute to local longevity in Cilento. Specifically, all Cilento municipalities had alkaline tap water, and the municipalities with the highest longevity concentrations had higher alkalinity levels than the other municipalities, soft to medium-hard water hardness, an amount of total dissolved solids equivalent to the level of excellent water, lower amounts of sodium, adequate iron concentration, and adequate dietary intake of manganese per day.

Associations between inflammation, coagulation, cardiac strain and injury, and subclinical vascular disease with frailty in older men: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Inflammation, coagulation activation, endothelial dysfunction and subclinical vascular disease are cross-sectionally associated with frailty. Cardiac-specific biomarkers are less-well characterised. We assessed associations between these and frailty, in men with, and without, cardiovascular disease (CVD).

METHODS

Cross-sectional analysis of 1096 men without, and 303 with, CVD, aged 71-92, from the British Regional Heart Study. Multinominal logistic regression was performed to examine the associations between frailty status (robust/pre-frail/frail) and, separately, C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), tissue plasminogen activator (tPA), D-dimer, von Willebrand factor (vWF), high-sensitivity cardiac troponin-T (hs-cTnT), N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) (all natural log-transformed), and, in men without CVD, carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT), carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (cfPWV), carotid distensibility coefficient (DC), and ankle-brachial pressure index (ABPI), adjusted for age, renal function, BMI, social class, smoking, polypharmacy, cognition, multimorbidity and systolic blood pressure. Explanatory variables with p < 0.05 were carried forward into mutually-adjusted analysis.

RESULTS

In men without CVD, higher CRP, IL-6, vWF, tPA, hs-cTnT, NT-proBNP, cfPWV, and lower DC were significantly associated with frailty; mutually-adjusted, log IL-6 (OR for frailty = 2.02, 95%CI 1.38-2.95), log hs-cTnT (OR = 1.95, 95%CI 1.24-3.05) and DC (OR = 0.92, 95%CI 0.86-0.99) retained associations. In men with CVD, higher CRP, IL-6, and hs-cTnT, but not vWF, tPA, NT-proBNP or D-dimer, were significantly associated with frailty; mutually-adjusted, log hs-cTnT (OR 3.82, 95%CI 1.84-7.95) retained a significant association.

CONCLUSIONS

In older men, biomarkers of myocardial injury are associated with frailty. Inflammation is associated with frailty in men without CVD. Carotid artery stiffness is associated with frailty in men without CVD, independently of these biomarkers.

The effect of acute alcohol ingestion on systemic hemodynamics and sleep architecture in young, healthy men

Objective Heightened nocturnal blood pressure (BP) may be attributed to the disruption of sleep, a condition worsened by alcohol ingestion. This study investigated the effects of acute alcohol ingestion on hemodynamics and sleep architecture in a young, healthy cohort of male. METHODS: Subjects (n = 17) underwent acute alcohol ingestion reaching a breath alcohol content of 0.08. Each subject endured a battery of hemodynamic tests and had their sleep architecture and nocturnal blood pressure monitored pre- and post-ingestion. Results: Systolic blood pressure (SBP) increased both 30 minutes and 12 hours after alcohol. Ambulatory nocturnal SBP significantly increased after alcohol compared to baseline measures. Minutes of total, rapid eye movement, and light sleep all increased after alcohol ingestion, while a decrease was observed for sleep latency. Conclusions: An acute bout of heavy alcohol consumption may attenuate nocturnal BP dipping that, in turn, may hasten the progression of hypertension-related cardiovascular disease.

Prevalence and Correlates of Risky Drinking Among the Oldest-Old in China: A National Community-Based Survey

AIMS

To investigate the prevalence and correlates of risky drinking in Chinese elderly people aged 80 and over.

METHODS

Data were obtained from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) conducted in 2018. A total of 10,141 respondents aged 80 years or older were included in this analysis. Risky drinking was defined as drinking > 2 drinks per day. The participants were divided into no risky drinking, past risky drinking, and current risky drinking groups. The prevalence of risky drinking, daily dosage, and type of alcohol beverages were assessed. The correlates of risky drinking were analyzed using logistic regression.

RESULTS

The prevalence of past and current risky drinking was 6.2 and 4.4%, respectively. A total of 12.2% of males and 2.1% of females reported past risky drinking, and 8.9% of males and 1.4% of females reported current risky drinking. The median of the daily dosage of the past risky drinking group was 4.5 and 4 drinks in males and females, respectively, and were 4 and 3.3, respectively, of the current risky drinking group. Strong liquor was the most popular alcohol beverage in all groups. Men who were older or had white-collar work were less likely to be past risky drinkers, while those with smoking in past or current or heart disease were more likely to be past risky drinkers. Women who smoked in the past were more likely to be past risky drinkers. Men with older age or living in the urban areas or with heart disease were less likely to be current risky drinkers. Women with higher education or with heart disease were less likely to be current risky drinkers. Women with current smoking were more likely to have current risky drinking.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicated that risky drinking among the oldest-old was not rare in China. The correlates of past and current risky drinking were different. Men and women had various correlates of risky drinking as well. Those with higher socioeconomic status seemed less likely to be risky drinking. More attention should be given to risky drinking among the oldest old, and sex-specific intervention may be needed.

Associations between inflammation, cardiovascular biomarkers and incident frailty: the British Regional Heart Study

Introduction

cardiovascular disease (CVD) and chronic inflammation are implicated in the development of frailty. Longitudinal analyses of inflammatory markers, biomarkers of cardiac dysfunction and incidence of frailty are limited.

Methods

in the British Regional Heart Study, 1,225 robust or pre-frail men aged 71–92 years underwent a baseline examination, with questionnaire-based frailty assessment after 3 years. Frailty definitions were based on the Fried phenotype. Associations between incident frailty and biomarkers of cardiac dysfunction (high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT), N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP)) and inflammation (C-reactive protein (CRP) and interleukin-6 (IL-6)) were examined, by tertile, with the lowest as reference.

Results

follow-up data were available for 981 men. Ninety one became frail. Adjusted for age, pre-frailty, prevalent and incident CVD, comorbidity, polypharmacy and socioeconomic status, IL-6 (third tertile OR 2.36, 95% CI 1.07–5.17) and hs-cTnT (third tertile OR 2.24, 95% CI 1.03–4.90) were associated with increased odds of frailty. CRP (third tertile OR 1.83, 95% CI 0.97–4.08) and NT-proBNP (second tertile OR 0.48, 95% CI 0.23–1.01) showed no significant association with incident frailty. The top tertiles of CRP, IL-6, hscTnT and NT-proBNP were strongly associated with mortality prior to follow-up.

Conclusion

IL-6 is associated with incident frailty, supporting the prevailing argument that inflammation is involved in the pathogenesis of frailty. Cardiomyocyte injury may be associated with frailty risk. Associations between elevated CRP and frailty cannot be fully discounted; NT-proBNP may have a non-linear relationship with incident frailty. CRP, IL-6, hs-cTnT and NT-proBNP are vulnerable to survivorship bias.

Subclinical cardiovascular disease and risk of incident frailty: The British Regional Heart Study

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Subclinical cardiovascular disease (CVD) is cross-sectionally associated with frailty, but the relationship between subclinical CVD and incident frailty has not been reported. We aimed to assess this prospective association.

DESIGN

Longitudinal analysis of data from the British Regional Heart Study, a prospective cohort study.

PARTICIPANTS

1057 men, aged 71-92 years, robust or pre-frail at baseline, and without a clinical diagnosis of CVD.

MEASUREMENTS

Participants underwent baseline measurement of carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (cfPWV), carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT), carotid distensibility coefficient (DC), and ankle-brachial pressure index (ABPI), and had questionnaire-based frailty assessment after three years. Frailty status was based on the Fried phenotype. Multivariate logistic regressions examined associations between incident frailty and tertile of cfPWV, CIMT, DC, and ABPI group (<0.9, 0.9-1.4, ≥1.4).

RESULTS

865 men were examined and completed the 3 year follow-up questionnaire, of whom 78 became frail. Adjusted for age, prefrailty, body mass index, diabetes, smoking, atrial fibrillation, blood pressure, renal function, and incident CVD, higher CIMT was associated with greater odds of incident frailty (2nd tertile OR 1.62, 95% CI 0.78-3.35, 3rd tertile OR 2.61, 95% CI 1.30-5.23, p = 0.007, trend p = 0.006). cfPWV showed a weaker, non-significant association (2nd tertile OR 1.79, 95% CI 0.85-3.78, 3rd tertile OR 1.73, OR 0.81-3.72, p = 0.16, trend p = 0.20). There was no clear association between incident frailty and DC or ABPI. In subgroup analyses, CIMT was significantly associated with incident frailty in men ≥80 years (3rd tertile OR 6.99, 95%CI 1.42-34.5), but not in men aged 75-80 or < 75 years.

CONCLUSION

Subclinical CVD, as measured by CIMT, is associated with greater risk of incident frailty in older men over three year follow-up, independent of the development of clinically-apparent stroke, heart failure, or myocardial infarction, and may be a modifiable risk factor for frailty. This association may be stronger in very old age.

A single bout of exercise improves vascular insulin sensitivity in adults with obesity

OBJECTIVE

This crossover study explored the impact of a single bout of exercise on insulin-stimulated responses in conduit arteries and capillaries.

METHODS

Twelve sedentary adults (49.5 [7.8] years; maximal oxygen consumption [VO₂ max]: 23.7 [5.4] mL/kg/min) with obesity (BMI 34.5 [4.3] kg/m² ) completed a control and exercise bout (70% VO₂ max to expend 400 kcal). Sixteen hours later, participants underwent a 2-hour euglycemic-hyperinsulinemic clamp (90 mg/dL; 40 mU/m² /min) to determine vascular and metabolic insulin sensitivity. Endothelial and capillary functions were assessed by brachial artery flow-mediated dilation and contrast-enhanced ultrasound, respectively. Metabolized glucose infusion rate, substrate oxidation (indirect calorimetry), nonoxidative glucose disposal (NOGD), and inflammation were also determined.

RESULTS

Exercise increased insulin-stimulated preocclusion diameter (p = 0.01) and microvascular blood flow (condition effect: p = 0.04) compared with control. Furthermore, exercise improved metabolic insulin sensitivity by 21%, which paralleled rises in NOGD (p = 0.05) and decreases in soluble receptors for advanced glycation end products (condition effect: p = 0.01). Interestingly, changes in NOGD were related to increased insulin-stimulated microvascular blood flow (r = 0.57, p = 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

A single bout of exercise increases vascular insulin sensitivity in adults with obesity. Additional work is needed to determine vascular responses following different doses of exercise in order to design lifestyle prescriptions for reducing chronic disease risk.

Excessive Orthostatic Changes in Blood Pressure Are Associated With Incident Heart Failure in Older Men: A Prospective Analysis From the BRHS

[Figure: see text].

Inflammatory markers and incident heart failure in older men: the role of NT-proBNP

Aim:

To determine the relationship between baseline inflammation (CRP and IL-6) with natriuretic peptide (NP) activity (measured by NT-proBNP) and incident heart failure (HF) in older men.

Methods & results:

In the British Regional Heart Study, 3569 men without prevalent myocardial infarction or HF were followed for mean 16.3 years; 327 developed HF. Baseline CRP and IL-6 were significantly and positively associated with NT-proBNP. Those in the highest CRP and IL-6 quartiles had an elevated risk of HF after age and BMI adjustment (HR = 1.42 [1.01–1.98] and 1.71 [1.24–2.37], respectively), which markedly attenuated after NT-proBNP adjustment (HR = 1.15 [0.81–1.63] and 1.25 [0.89–1.75], respectively).

Conclusion:

NP activity is associated with pro-inflammatory biomarkers and may explain the link between inflammation and incident HF.

Inflammation describes the body’s natural response to infections, injuries and toxins. Inflammation is a helpful response in the short term, but it is thought that long-lasting inflammation – for example, due to illnesses such as diabetes or obesity – may have harmful effects. Previous studies have found that people with higher levels of inflammatory molecules in the blood seem to be more likely to develop heart failure (HF) later on. The amount of fluid in the body is controlled, in part, by molecules in the blood known as ‘natriuretic peptides' (NPs). People with HF have much higher levels of NPs in their blood, and these are used to help diagnose HF. There are suggestions that inflammation and natriuretic peptides are linked to one another. Using a sample of men aged 60–79 years, who did not have HF, we compared blood markers of inflammation and NPs at a baseline examination. Men with higher blood inflammatory markers tended to have higher blood NP levels. We then followed these men up for an average of 16.3 years. Men with higher blood inflammatory markers at baseline were more likely to develop HF, as expected, even after accounting for differences in age and BMI. However, when we accounted for NP levels at baseline, the increased risk of HF with inflammation disappeared. This suggests that NP activity is important in the relationship between inflammation and the risk of HF. Future studies should account for this when examining the link. It is possible that NPs or, more likely, whatever is driving their release, may explain why people with inflammation are more likely to get HF.

Association of risk factors with type 2 diabetes: A systematic review

Diabetes is the leading cause of severe health complications and one of the top 10 causes of death worldwide. To date, diabetes has no cure, and therefore, it is necessary to take precautionary measures to avoid its occurrence. The main aim of this systematic review is to identify the majority of the risk factors for the incidence/prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus on one hand, and to give a critical analysis of the cohort/cross-sectional studies which examine the impact of the association of risk factors on diabetes. Consequently, we provide insights on risk factors whose interactions are major players in developing diabetes. We conclude with recommendations to allied health professionals, individuals and government institutions to support better diagnosis and prognosis of the disease.

Associations of the systolic and diastolic components of orthostatic hypotension with markers of cardiovascular risk in older men: A cross-sectional analysis from The British Regional Heart Study

The mechanisms underlying the association between orthostatic hypotension (OH) and cardiovascular disease are unclear. We investigated whether OH is associated with circulating cardiovascular risk markers. This was a cross-sectional analysis of 3857 older, community-dwelling men. "Consensus OH" was defined as a sitting-to-standing decrease in systolic blood pressure ≥20 mm Hg and/or diastolic blood pressure ≥10 mm Hg that occurred within three minutes of standing. Multiple generalized linear regression and logistic models were used to examine the association between cardiovascular risk markers and OH. Consensus OH was present in 20.2%, consisting of isolated systolic OH in 12.6%, isolated diastolic OH in 4.6%, and combined systolic and diastolic OH in 3.0%. Concentration of von Willebrand factor, a marker of endothelial dysfunction, was positively associated with isolated systolic OH (OR 1.35, 95% CI 1.05-1.73) and combined systolic and diastolic OH (OR 2.27, 95% CI 1.35-3.83); high circulating phosphate concentration, which may reflect vascular calcification, was associated with isolated diastolic OH (OR 1.53, 95% CI 1.04-2.25) and combined systolic and diastolic OH (OR 2.12, 95% CI 1.31-3.44), high-sensitivity troponin T, a marker of myocardial injury, was positively associated with isolated diastolic OH (OR 1.69, 95% CI 1.07-2.65) and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, a marker of cardiac stress, was positively associated with combined systolic and diastolic OH (OR 2.14, 95% CI 1.14-4.03). In conclusion, OH is associated with some cardiovascular risk markers implicated in endothelial dysfunction, vascular calcification, myocardial injury, and cardiac stress. Clinicians should consider assessing cardiovascular risk in patients with OH.

Triglyceride-containing lipoprotein sub-fractions and risk of coronary heart disease and stroke: A prospective analysis in 11,560 adults

AIMS

Elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease; however, there is uncertainty about the role of total triglycerides and the individual triglyceride-containing lipoprotein sub-fractions. We measured 14 triglyceride-containing lipoprotein sub-fractions using nuclear magnetic resonance and examined associations with coronary heart disease and stroke.

METHODS

Triglyceride-containing sub-fraction measures were available in 11,560 participants from the three UK cohorts free of coronary heart disease and stroke at baseline. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate the association of each sub-fraction with coronary heart disease and stroke expressed as the odds ratio per standard deviation increment in the corresponding measure.

RESULTS

The 14 triglyceride-containing sub-fractions were positively correlated with one another and with total triglycerides, and inversely correlated with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C). Thirteen sub-fractions were positively associated with coronary heart disease (odds ratio in the range 1.12 to 1.22), with the effect estimates for coronary heart disease being comparable in subgroup analysis of participants with and without type 2 diabetes, and were attenuated after adjustment for HDL-C and LDL-C. There was no evidence for a clear association of any triglyceride lipoprotein sub-fraction with stroke.

CONCLUSIONS

Triglyceride sub-fractions are associated with increased risk of coronary heart disease but not stroke, with attenuation of effects on adjustment for HDL-C and LDL-C.

Cardiovascular Health and Stroke in Older British Men: Prospective Findings From the British Regional Heart Study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Research exploring the utility of cardiovascular health (CVH) and its Life's Simple 7 (LS7) components (body mass index, blood pressure [BP], glucose, cholesterol, physical activity, smoking, and diet) for prevention of stroke in older adults is limited. In the British Regional Heart Study, we explored (1) prospective associations of LS7 metrics and composite CVH scores with, and their impact on, stroke in middle and older age; and (2) if change in CVH was associated with subsequent stroke.

METHODS

Men without cardiovascular disease were followed from baseline recruitment (1978-1980), and again from re-examination 20 years later, for stroke over a median period of 20 years and 16 years, respectively. LS7 were measured at each time point except baseline diet. Cox models estimated hazard ratios (95% CI) of stroke for (1) ideal and intermediate versus poor levels of LS7; (2) composite CVH scores; and (3) 4 CVH trajectory groups (low-low, low-high, high-low, high-high) derived by dichotomising CVH scores from each time point across the median value. Population attributable fractions measured impact of LS7.

RESULTS

At baseline (n=7274, mean age 50 years), healthier levels of BP, physical activity, and smoking were associated with reduced stroke risk. At 20-year follow-up (n=3798, mean age 69 years) only BP displayed an association. Hazard ratios for intermediate and ideal (versus poor) levels of BP 0.65 (0.52-0.81) and 0.40 (0.24-0.65) at baseline; and 0.84 (0.67-1.05) and 0.57 (0.36-0.90) at 20-year follow-up. With reference to low-low trajectory, the low-high trajectory was associated with 40% reduced risk, hazard ratio 0.60 (0.44-0.83). Associations of CVH scores weakened, and population attributable fractions of LS7 reduced, from middle to old age; population attributable fraction of nonideal BP from 53% to 39%.

CONCLUSIONS

Except for BP, CVH is weakly associated with stroke at older ages. Prevention strategies for older adults should prioritize BP control but also enhance focus beyond traditional risk factors.

Active smoking is associated with higher rates of incomplete wound healing after endovascular treatment of critical limb ischemia

The association between active smoking and wound healing in critical limb ischemia (CLI) is unknown. Our objective was to examine in a retrospective cohort study whether active smoking is associated with higher incomplete wound healing rates in patients with CLI undergoing endovascular interventions. Smoking status was assessed at the time of the intervention, comparing active to no active smoking, and also during follow-up visits at 6 and 9 months. Cox regression analysis was conducted to compare the incomplete wound healing rates of the two groups during follow-up. A total of 264 patients (active smokers: n = 41) were included. Active smoking was associated with higher rates of incomplete wound healing in the 6-month univariate Cox regression analysis (hazard ratio (HR) for incomplete wound healing: 4.54; 95% CI: 1.41-14.28; p = 0.012). The 6-month Kaplan-Meier (KM) estimates for incomplete wound healing were 91.1% for the active smoking group versus 66% for the non-current smoking group. Active smoking was also associated with higher rates of incomplete wound healing in the 9-month univariable (HR for incomplete wound healing: 2.32; 95% CI: 1.11-4.76; p = 0.026) and multivariable analysis (HR for incomplete wound healing: 9.09; 95% CI: 1.06-100.0; p = 0.044). The 9-month KM estimates for incomplete wound healing were 75% in the active smoking group versus 54% in the non-active smoking group. In conclusion, active smoking status at the time of intervention in patients with CLI is associated with higher rates of incomplete wound healing during both 6- and 9-month follow-up.

Liver Function and Risk of Type 2 Diabetes: Bidirectional Mendelian Randomization Study

Liver dysfunction and type 2 diabetes (T2D) are consistently associated. However, it is currently unknown whether liver dysfunction contributes to, results from, or is merely correlated with T2D due to confounding. We used Mendelian randomization to investigate the presence and direction of any causal relation between liver function and T2D risk including up to 64,094 T2D case and 607,012 control subjects. Several biomarkers were used as proxies of liver function (i.e., alanine aminotransferase [ALT], aspartate aminotransferase [AST], alkaline phosphatase [ALP], and γ-glutamyl transferase [GGT]). Genetic variants strongly associated with each liver function marker were used to investigate the effect of liver function on T2D risk. In addition, genetic variants strongly associated with T2D risk and with fasting insulin were used to investigate the effect of predisposition to T2D and insulin resistance, respectively, on liver function. Genetically predicted higher circulating ALT and AST were related to increased risk of T2D. There was a modest negative association of genetically predicted ALP with T2D risk and no evidence of association between GGT and T2D risk. Genetic predisposition to higher fasting insulin, but not to T2D, was related to increased circulating ALT. Since circulating ALT and AST are markers of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), these findings provide some support for insulin resistance resulting in NAFLD, which in turn increases T2D risk.

High-Sensitivity Troponin T and Incident Heart Failure in Older Men: British Regional Heart Study

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this work was to study the association of high-sensitivity troponin T (hsTnT) with incident heart failure (HF), and implications for its use in prediction models.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In the British Regional Heart Study, 3852 men aged 60-79years without baseline HF (3165 without baseline chronic heart disease) were followed for a median of 12.6years, during which 295 incident cases of HF occurred (7.7%). A 1-SD increase in log-transformed hsTnT was associated with a higher risk of incident HF after adjusting for classic risk factors (hazard ratio [HR] 1.58, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.42-1.77) and after additional adjustment for N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP; HR 1.34, 95% CI 1.19-1.52). The strength of the association between hsTnT and incident HF did not differ by strata of other risk factors. An hsTnT concentration of <5ng/L had a sensitivity of 99.7% (95% CI 98.1%-99.9%) and a specificity of 3.4% (95% CI 2.8%-4.0%). A risk-prediction model including classic risk factors and NT-proBNP yielded a C-index of 0.791, but addition of hsTnT did not further improve prediction (P = .28).

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated hsTnT is consistently associated with risk of HF in older men. HF occurred rarely over 12years when baseline hsTnT was below the limit of detection. hsTnT measurement, however, does not improve HF prediction in a model already containing NT-proBNP.

Development of type 2 diabetes mellitus in people with intermediate hyperglycaemia

BACKGROUND

Intermediate hyperglycaemia (IH) is characterised by one or more measurements of elevated blood glucose concentrations, such as impaired fasting glucose (IFG), impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) and elevated glycosylated haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c). These levels are higher than normal but below the diagnostic threshold for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). The reduced threshold of 5.6 mmol/L (100 mg/dL) fasting plasma glucose (FPG) for defining IFG, introduced by the American Diabetes Association (ADA) in 2003, substantially increased the prevalence of IFG. Likewise, the lowering of the HbA1c threshold from 6.0% to 5.7% by the ADA in 2010 could potentially have significant medical, public health and socioeconomic impacts.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the overall prognosis of people with IH for developing T2DM, regression from IH to normoglycaemia and the difference in T2DM incidence in people with IH versus people with normoglycaemia.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, Embase, ClincialTrials.gov and the International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) Search Portal up to December 2016 and updated the MEDLINE search in February 2018. We used several complementary search methods in addition to a Boolean search based on analytical text mining.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included prospective cohort studies investigating the development of T2DM in people with IH. We used standard definitions of IH as described by the ADA or World Health Organization (WHO). We excluded intervention trials and studies on cohorts with additional comorbidities at baseline, studies with missing data on the transition from IH to T2DM, and studies where T2DM incidence was evaluated by documents or self-report only.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

One review author extracted study characteristics, and a second author checked the extracted data. We used a tailored version of the Quality In Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool for assessing risk of bias. We pooled incidence and incidence rate ratios (IRR) using a random-effects model to account for between-study heterogeneity. To meta-analyse incidence data, we used a method for pooling proportions. For hazard ratios (HR) and odds ratios (OR) of IH versus normoglycaemia, reported with 95% confidence intervals (CI), we obtained standard errors from these CIs and performed random-effects meta-analyses using the generic inverse-variance method. We used multivariable HRs and the model with the greatest number of covariates. We evaluated the certainty of the evidence with an adapted version of the GRADE framework.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 103 prospective cohort studies. The studies mainly defined IH by IFG5.6 (FPG mmol/L 5.6 to 6.9 mmol/L or 100 mg/dL to 125 mg/dL), IFG6.1 (FPG 6.1 mmol/L to 6.9 mmol/L or 110 mg/dL to 125 mg/dL), IGT (plasma glucose 7.8 mmol/L to 11.1 mmol/L or 140 mg/dL to 199 mg/dL two hours after a 75 g glucose load on the oral glucose tolerance test, combined IFG and IGT (IFG/IGT), and elevated HbA1c (HbA1c5.7: HbA1c 5.7% to 6.4% or 39 mmol/mol to 46 mmol/mol; HbA1c6.0: HbA1c 6.0% to 6.4% or 42 mmol/mol to 46 mmol/mol). The follow-up period ranged from 1 to 24 years. Ninety-three studies evaluated the overall prognosis of people with IH measured by cumulative T2DM incidence, and 52 studies evaluated glycaemic status as a prognostic factor for T2DM by comparing a cohort with IH to a cohort with normoglycaemia. Participants were of Australian, European or North American origin in 41 studies; Latin American in 7; Asian or Middle Eastern in 50; and Islanders or American Indians in 5. Six studies included children and/or adolescents.Cumulative incidence of T2DM associated with IFG5.6, IFG6.1, IGT and the combination of IFG/IGT increased with length of follow-up. Cumulative incidence was highest with IFG/IGT, followed by IGT, IFG6.1 and IFG5.6. Limited data showed a higher T2DM incidence associated with HbA1c6.0 compared to HbA1c5.7. We rated the evidence for overall prognosis as of moderate certainty because of imprecision (wide CIs in most studies). In the 47 studies reporting restitution of normoglycaemia, regression ranged from 33% to 59% within one to five years follow-up, and from 17% to 42% for 6 to 11 years of follow-up (moderate-certainty evidence).Studies evaluating the prognostic effect of IH versus normoglycaemia reported different effect measures (HRs, IRRs and ORs). Overall, the effect measures all indicated an elevated risk of T2DM at 1 to 24 years of follow-up. Taking into account the long-term follow-up of cohort studies, estimation of HRs for time-dependent events like T2DM incidence appeared most reliable. The pooled HR and the number of studies and participants for different IH definitions as compared to normoglycaemia were: IFG5.6: HR 4.32 (95% CI 2.61 to 7.12), 8 studies, 9017 participants; IFG6.1: HR 5.47 (95% CI 3.50 to 8.54), 9 studies, 2818 participants; IGT: HR 3.61 (95% CI 2.31 to 5.64), 5 studies, 4010 participants; IFG and IGT: HR 6.90 (95% CI 4.15 to 11.45), 5 studies, 1038 participants; HbA1c5.7: HR 5.55 (95% CI 2.77 to 11.12), 4 studies, 5223 participants; HbA1c6.0: HR 10.10 (95% CI 3.59 to 28.43), 6 studies, 4532 participants. In subgroup analyses, there was no clear pattern of differences between geographic regions. We downgraded the evidence for the prognostic effect of IH versus normoglycaemia to low-certainty evidence due to study limitations because many studies did not adequately adjust for confounders. Imprecision and inconsistency required further downgrading due to wide 95% CIs and wide 95% prediction intervals (sometimes ranging from negative to positive prognostic factor to outcome associations), respectively.This evidence is up to date as of 26 February 2018.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Overall prognosis of people with IH worsened over time. T2DM cumulative incidence generally increased over the course of follow-up but varied with IH definition. Regression from IH to normoglycaemia decreased over time but was observed even after 11 years of follow-up. The risk of developing T2DM when comparing IH with normoglycaemia at baseline varied by IH definition. Taking into consideration the uncertainty of the available evidence, as well as the fluctuating stages of normoglycaemia, IH and T2DM, which may transition from one stage to another in both directions even after years of follow-up, practitioners should be careful about the potential implications of any active intervention for people 'diagnosed' with IH.

Response bias to a randomised controlled trial of a lifestyle intervention in people at high risk of cardiovascular disease: a cross-sectional analysis

Background

Research evaluating lifestyle interventions for prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) may not reach those most at risk. We compared the response rate to a randomised controlled trial (RCT) of a lifestyle intervention by CVD risk, ethnicity and level of deprivation.

Methods

Primary care patients with a QRisk2 score ≥ 20% were invited to participate in a RCT of an intensive lifestyle intervention versus usual care. This cross-sectional analysis compares anonymised data of responders and non-responders with multiple logistic regression, using adjusted odds ratios (AORs) for QRisk2 score, ethnicity, Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD 2010) quintile, age and sex.

Results

From 60 general practices, 8902 patients were invited and 1489 responded. The mean age was 67.3 years and 21.0% were female. Of all patients invited, 69.9% were of white ethnic background, 13.9% ethnic minority backgrounds and 16.2% had no ethnicity data recorded in their medical records. Likelihood of response decreased as QRisk2 score increased (AOR 0.82 per 5 percentage points, 95% CI 0.77–0.88). Black African or Caribbean patients (AOR 0.67; 95% CI 0.45–0.98) and those with missing ethnicity data (AOR 0.55; 95% CI 0.46–0.66) were less likely to respond compared to participants of white ethnicity, but there was no difference in the response rates between south Asian and white ethnicity (AOR 1.08; 95% CI 0.84–1.38). Patients residing in the fourth (AOR 0.70; 95% CI 0.56–0.87) and fifth (AOR 0.52; 95% CI 0.40–0.68) most deprived IMD quintile were less likely to respond compared to the least deprived quintile.

Conclusions

Evaluations of interventions intended for those at high risk of CVD may fail to reach those at highest risk. Hard to reach patient groups may require different recruitment strategies to maximise participation in future trials. Improvements in primary care ethnicity data recording is required to aid understanding of how successfully study samples represent the target population.

Trial registration

ISRCTN, ISRCTN84864870. Registered 15 May 2012, 10.1186/ISRCTN84864870.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-018-5939-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Management Choices for Hypertension with Coexistent Hypercholesterolaemia

Guidelines for the management of either hypertension or hyperlipidaemia have been widely published. However, recent data have shown the high frequency of an abnormal lipid profile in hypertensive subjects. We have therefore surveyed 195 general practitioners throughout Britain to determine current community-based attitudes and management approaches to hypertension with coexistent hypercholesterolaemia. Routine screening for lipids in hypertensive subjects was recommended by 40% of respondents. First-line antihypertensive drug choices were influenced by the knowledge of a hypercholesterolaemia, with preference for drugs known to have no adverse effects on the lipid profile. When first-choice drug failed to effectively lower blood pressure, the additional drug or the substitute choices were not influenced by the metabolic profiles of the alternative selected. The current wide choice of antihypertensive drugs and the complexity of metabolic complications of treatment plus the relationship of risk factor clustering has made the formulation of management strategies very difficult. This was supported by the finding that 88% of respondents in our survey felt that there was a clear need for consensus management guidelines for the treatment of hypertension with coexistent hypercholesterolaemia.

Can we identify older people most vulnerable to living in cold homes during winter?

PURPOSE

Living in a cold home increases the risk of dying in winter, especially in older people. However, it is unclear which individual factors predict whether older people are living in cold homes.

METHODS

Thousand four hundred two men aged 74-95 years from a U.K. population-based study reported difficulties in keeping warm during winter, answering four simple "yes/no" questions. Associations between individual's characteristics and each of the four self-reported measures of cold homes were estimated using logistic regression models. Next, we investigated whether measures of cold homes predict mortality over the subsequent 2.1 years.

RESULTS

Manual social class, difficulties making ends meet, and not being married were each associated (P < .05) with each of the four measures of cold homes (adjusted odds ratios ranged from 1.61 to 4.68). Social isolation, poor respiratory health, and grip strength were also associated with reports of cold homes. Hundred twenty-six men died; those who reported the presence of at least three measures cold homes had increased mortality (adjusted hazard ratios 2.85 [95% confidence interval, 1.11-7.30, P = .029]).

CONCLUSIONS

Older people who find it hard to keep warm in winter, and have an elevated mortality, could be identified using a self-report questionnaire.

Associations of time of day with cardiovascular disease risk factors measured in older men: results from the British Regional Heart Study

OBJECTIVE

We estimated associations of time of day with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors measured in older men.

METHODS

CVD risk factors (markers of inflammation and haemostasis, and cardiac markers) were measured on one occasion between 08:00 and 19:00 hours in 4252 men aged 60-79 years from the British Regional Heart Study. Linear models were used to estimate associations between time of day and risk factors. When an association was found, we examined whether the relationship between risk factors and cardiovascular mortality was affected by the adjustment for time of day using survival analyses.

RESULTS

N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels increased by 3.3% per hour (95% CI 1.9% to 4.8%), interleukin-6 (IL-6) increased by 2.6% per hour (95% CI 1.8% to 3.4%), while tissue plasminogen activator (t-PA) decreased by 3.3% per hour (95% CI 3.7% to 2.9%); these associations were unaffected by adjustment for possible confounding factors. The percentages of variation in these risk factors attributable to time of day were less than 2%. In survival analyses, the association of IL-6, NT-proBNP and t-PA with cardiovascular mortality was not affected by the adjustment for time of day. C reactive protein, fibrinogen, D-dimer, von Willebrand factor and cardiac troponin T showed no associations with time of day.

CONCLUSIONS

In older men, markers of inflammation (IL-6), haemostasis (t-PA) and a cardiac marker (NT-proBNP) varied by time of day. The contribution of time of day to variations in these markers was small and did not appear to be relevant for the CVD risk prediction.

Associations between blood coagulation markers, NT-proBNP and risk of incident heart failure in older men: The British Regional Heart Study

AIMS

Chronic heart failure (HF) is associated with activation of blood coagulation but there is a lack of prospective studies on the association between coagulation markers and incident HF in general populations. We have examined the association between the coagulation markers fibrinogen, von Willebrand Factor (VWF), Factors VII, VIII and IX, D-dimer, activated protein C (APC) and activated partial thromboplastin time (aPPT) with NT-proBNP and incident HF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Prospective study of 3366 men aged 60-79years with no prevalent HF, myocardial infarction or venous thrombosis and who were not on warfarin, followed up for a mean period of 13years, in whom there were 203 incident HF cases. D-dimer and vWF were significantly and positively associated with NT-proBNP (a marker of neurohormonal activation and left ventricular wall stress) even after adjustment for age, lifestyle characteristics, renal dysfunction, atrial fibrillation (AF) and inflammation (C-reactive protein). By contrast Factor VII related inversely to AF and NT-proBNP even after adjustment. No association was seen however between the coagulation markers VWF, Factor VII, Factor VIII, Factor IX, D-dimer, APC resistance or aPPT with incident HF in age-adjusted analyses. Fibrinogen was associated with incident HF but this was abolished after adjustment for HF risk factors.

CONCLUSION

Coagulation activity is not associated with the development of HF. However D-dimer and vWF were significantly associated with NT-proBNP, suggesting that increased coagulation activity is related to cardiac stress; and the increased coagulation seen in HF patients may in part be a consequence of neurohormonal activation.

Bone Mineral Density Is Positively Related to Carotid Intima-Media Thickness: Findings From a Population-Based Study in Adolescents and Premenopausal Women

Osteoporosis and cardiovascular disease (CVD) are both common causes of morbidity and mortality. Previous studies, mainly of people older than 60 years, suggest a relationship between these conditions. Our aim was to determine the association between bone characteristics and CVD markers in younger and middle-aged individuals. Women (n = 3366) and their adolescent offspring (n = 4368) from the UK population-based cohort study, Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), were investigated. We measured total body (TB) and hip bone mineral density (BMD), TB bone area (BA) and bone mineral content (BMC) by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), and carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) by high-resolution ultrasound. Arterial distensibility was calculated as the difference between systolic and diastolic arterial diameters. Linear regression determined associations between bone exposures and cIMT (in adolescents) and both cIMT and arterial distensibility (in women), generating partial correlation coefficients. Mean (SD) age of women was 48 (4.2) years, body mass index (BMI) was 26.2 (5.0) kg/m² , and 71% were premenopausal. In confounder-adjusted analyses (age, height, lean mass, fat mass, menopause, smoking, estrogen replacement, calcium/vitamin D supplementation, and education) TB and hip BMD were both positively associated with cIMT (0.071 [0.030, 0.112], p = 0.001; 0.063 [0.025, 0.101], p = 0.001, respectively). Femoral neck BMD and TB BMD, BMC, and BA were positively associated with arterial distensibility. Mean (SD) age of adolescents was 17 (0.4) years, BMI was 23 (4.1) kg/m² , and 44.5% were male. Total hip and TB measurements were positively associated with cIMT, with similar magnitudes of association to those found in their mothers. In contrast to most published findings, we identified weak positive associations between BMD and cIMT in predominantly premenopausal women and their adolescent offspring. We found greater femoral neck BMD and TB DXA measurements to be associated with reduced arterial stiffness. Rather than a relationship with preclinical atherosclerosis, in these relatively young populations, we speculate our associations between BMD, cIMT, and arterial distensibility may reflect a shared relationship between bone and vascular growth and development. © 2016 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Dietary patterns and the risk of CVD and all-cause mortality in older British men

Dietary patterns are a major risk factor for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality; however, few studies have examined this relationship in older adults. We examined prospective associations between dietary patterns and the risk of CVD and all-cause mortality in 3226 older British men, aged 60-79 years and free from CVD at baseline, from the British Regional Heart Study. Baseline FFQ data were used to generate thirty-four food groups. Principal component analysis identified dietary patterns that were categorised into quartiles, with higher quartiles representing higher adherence to the dietary pattern. Cox proportional hazards examined associations between dietary patterns and risk of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular outcomes. We identified three interpretable dietary patterns: 'high fat/low fibre' (high in red meat, meat products, white bread, fried potato, eggs), 'prudent' (high in poultry, fish, fruits, vegetables, legumes, pasta, rice, wholemeal bread, eggs, olive oil) and 'high sugar' (high in biscuits, puddings, chocolates, sweets, sweet spreads, breakfast cereals). During 11 years of follow-up, 899 deaths, 316 CVD-related deaths, 569 CVD events and 301 CHD events occurred. The 'high-fat/low-fibre' dietary pattern was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality only, after adjustment for confounders (highest v. lowest quartile; hazard ratio 1·44; 95 % CI 1·13, 1·84). Adherence to a 'high-sugar' diet was associated with a borderline significant trend for an increased risk of CVD and CHD events. The 'prudent' diet did not show a significant trend with cardiovascular outcomes or mortality. Avoiding 'high-fat/low-fibre' and 'high-sugar' dietary components may reduce the risk of cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality in older adults.

Hearing impairment and incident disability and all-cause mortality in older British community-dwelling men

Background and objective: hearing impairment is common in older adults and has been implicated in the risk of disability and mortality. We examined the association between hearing impairment and risk of incident disability and all-cause mortality.

Design and setting: prospective cohort of community-dwelling older men aged 63–85 followed up for disability over 2 years and for all-cause mortality for 10 years in the British Regional Heart Study.

Methods: data were collected on self-reported hearing impairment including hearing aid use, and disability assessed as mobility limitations (problems walking/taking stairs), difficulties with activities of daily living (ADL) and instrumental ADL (IADL). Mortality data were obtained from the National Health Service register.

Results: among 3,981 men, 1,074 (27%) reported hearing impairment. Compared with men with no hearing impairment, men who could hear and used a hearing aid, and men who could not hear despite a hearing aid had increased risks of IADL difficulties (age-adjusted OR 1.86, 95% CI 1.29–2.70; OR 2.74, 95% CI 1.53–4.93, respectively). The associations remained after further adjustment for covariates including social class, lifestyle factors, co-morbidities and social engagement. Associations of hearing impairment with incident mobility limitations, incident ADL difficulties and all-cause mortality were attenuated on adjustment for covariates.

Conclusion: this study suggests that hearing problems in later life could increase the risk of having difficulties performing IADLs, which include more complex everyday tasks such as shopping and light housework. However, further studies are needed to determine the associations observed including the underlying pathways.

Copeptin and the risk of incident stroke, CHD and cardiovascular mortality in older men with and without diabetes: The British Regional Heart Study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

This study aimed to examine the association between copeptin (a surrogate marker of arginine vasopressin) and incident stroke, CHD and cardiovascular mortality in older men with and without diabetes.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective study of 3536 men aged 60-79 years who were followed for an average of 13 years. During this period, there were 437 major CHD events (fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction [MI]), 323 stroke events (fatal and non-fatal) and 497 cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths. Prevalent diabetes was defined on the basis of a history of doctor-diagnosed diabetes or fasting blood glucose ≥7.0 mmol or HbA1c ≥6.5% (48 mmol/mol) (n = 428).

RESULTS

No association was seen between copeptin and incident stroke or CVD mortality in men without diabetes after adjustment for conventional cardiovascular risk factors, renal dysfunction, and insulin and N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide levels. In contrast, elevated copeptin levels were associated with an increased risk of stroke and CVD mortality in men with diabetes after these adjustments. Compared with those in the lowest tertile of copeptin, men in the top tertile had adjusted relative HRs for stroke and CVD death of 2.34 (95% CI 1.04, 5.27) and 2.21 (1.12, 4.36), respectively. The risk of stroke and CVD mortality remained increased after the exclusion of men with prevalent stroke or MI. Higher levels of copeptin were associated with increased risk of CHD in the diabetic and non-diabetic groups, but these associations were attenuated after exclusion of individuals with a previous stroke or MI.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Copeptin was independently associated with an increased risk of incident stroke and CVD mortality in men with diabetes, but not in men without diabetes. Targeting the arginine vasopressin system might have beneficial effects on CVD mortality and stroke risk in older men with diabetes.

Extent of regression dilution for established and novel coronary risk factors: results from the British Regional Heart Study

BACKGROUND

Imprecision in measurement of risk factors leads to underestimation of associations with disease outcomes (through regression dilution bias). We examine the extent of this bias for established and novel risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) and consider the consequences for CHD prevention.

DESIGN

Prospective cardiovascular study of middle-aged British men followed up over 20 years.

METHODS

Repeated measurements of blood lipids, blood pressure and insulin were available at intervals of 1 week, 4, 16 and 20 years; repeated measurements of homocysteine and haemostatic factors were available over 1 week and 4 years.

RESULTS

The use of single baseline measures of both established and novel risk factors in analysis results in marked underestimation of risk associations, increasing over time. The use of a single baseline measurement of total cholesterol results in a 47% (95% confidence interval 44 to 50%) underestimation of its association with CHD risk during the third decade of follow-up; for diastolic blood pressure the corresponding underestimation is 76% (95% confidence interval 73 to 78%). Ignoring the consequences of regression dilution can also lead to error in the assessment of other risk markers, even those measured precisely.

CONCLUSIONS

The importance of risk factors for CHD can be greatly underestimated by using a single baseline measure in prospective study analyses. Studies that wish to estimate associations between disease risk and usual exposure levels need to take regression dilution effects into account. Failure to do so can lead to serious misinterpretation of the importance of CHD risk factors.

Quantitative research: Designs relevant to nursing and healthcare

This paper gives an overview of the main quantitative research designs relevant to nursing and healthcare. It outlines some strengths and weaknesses of the designs, provides examples to illustrate the different designs and examines some of the relevant statistical concepts. The paper concludes with a brief discussion about the place of quantitative research in nursing.

Self-Reported Sleep Duration, Napping, and Incident Heart Failure: Prospective Associations in the British Regional Heart Study

Objectives

To examine the associations between self‐reported nighttime sleep duration and daytime sleep and incident heart failure (HF) in men with and without preexisting cardiovascular disease (CVD).

Design

Population‐based prospective study.

Setting

General practices in 24 British towns.

Participants

Men aged 60–79 without prevalent HF followed for 9 years (N = 3,723).

Measurements

Information on incident HF cases was obtained from primary care records. Assessment of sleep was based on self‐reported sleep duration at night and daytime napping.

Results

Self‐reported short nighttime sleep duration and daytime sleep of longer than 1 hour were associated with preexisting CVD, breathlessness, depression, poor health, physical inactivity, and manual social class. In all men, self‐reported daytime sleep of longer than 1 hour duration was associated with significantly greater risk of HF after adjustment for potential confounders (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 1.69, 95% CI = 1.06–2.71) than in those who reported no daytime napping. Self‐reported nighttime sleep duration was not associated with HF risk except in men with preexisting CVD (<6 hours: aHR = 2.91, 95% CI = 1.31–6.45; 6 hours: aHR = 1.89, 95% CI = 0.89–4.03; 8 hours: aHR = 1.29, 95% CI = 0.61–2.71; ≥9 hours: aHR = 1.80, 905% CI = 0.71–4.61 vs nighttime sleep of 7 hours). Snoring was not associated with HF risk.

Conclusion

Self‐reported daytime napping of longer than 1 hour is associated with greater risk of HF in older men. Self‐reported short sleep (<6 hours) in men with CVD is associated with particularly high risk of developing HF.

Effect of cold spells and their modifiers on cardiovascular disease events: Evidence from two prospective studies

OBJECTIVE

To investigate effects of cold weather spells on incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD), and potential effect modification of socio-demographic, clinical, behavioural and environmental exposures.

METHODS

Data from two prospective studies were analysed: the British Regional Heart Study (BRHS), a population-based study of British men aged 60-79years, followed for CVD incidence from 1998-2000 to 2012; and the PROSPER study of men and women aged 70-82 recruited to a trial of pravastatin vs placebo from 1997 to 9 (followed until 2009). Cold spells were defined as at least three consecutive days when daily mean temperature fell below the monthly 10th percentile specific to the closest local weather station. A time-stratified case-crossover approach was used to estimate associations between cold spells and CVD events.

RESULTS

921 of 4252 men from BRHS and 760 of 2519 participants from PROSPER suffered a first CVD event during follow-up. More CVD events were registered in winter in both studies. The risk ratio (RR) associated with cold spells was statistically significant in BRHS (RR=1.86, 95% CI 1.30-2.65, p<0.001), and independent of temperature level: results were similar whether events were fatal or non-fatal. Increased risk was particularly marked in BRHS for ever-smokers (RR of 2.44 vs 0.99 for never-smokers), in moderate/heavy drinkers (RR 2.59 vs 1.41), and during winter months (RR 3.28 vs 1.25). No increased risk was found in PROSPER.

CONCLUSIONS

Although CVD risks were higher in winter in both BRHS and PROSPER prospective studies, cold spells increased risk of CVD events, independently of cold temperature, in the BRHS only.

Prediction of Cardiovascular Disease Risk by Cardiac Biomarkers in 2 United Kingdom Cohort Studies: Does Utility Depend on Risk Thresholds For Treatment?

We tested the predictive ability of cardiac biomarkers N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), high-sensitivity troponin T, and midregional pro adrenomedullin for cardiovascular disease (CVD) events using the British Regional Heart Study (BRHS) of men aged 60 to 79 years, and the MIDSPAN Family Study (MFS) of men and women aged 30 to 59 years. They included 3757 and 2226 participants, respectively, and during median 13.0 and 17.3 years follow-up the primary CVD event rates were 16.6 and 5.3 per 1000 patient-years, respectively. In Cox models adjusted for basic classical risk factors, 1 SD increases in log-transformed NT-proBNP, high-sensitivity troponin T, and midregional pro adrenomedullin were generally associated with increased primary CVD risk in both the studies (P<0.006) except midregional pro adrenomedullin in MFS (P=0.10). In BRHS, QRISK2 risk factors yielded a C-index of 0.657, which was improved by 0.017 (P=0.005) by NT-proBNP, but not by other biomarkers. Using 28% 14-year risk as a proxy for 20% 10-year risk, NT-proBNP improved risk classification for primary CVD cases (case net reclassification index, 5.9%; 95% confidence interval, 2.8%-9.2%), but only improved classification of noncases at a 14% 14-year risk threshold (4.6%; 2.9%-6.3%). In MFS, ASSIGN risk factors yielded a C-index of 0.752 for primary CVD; none of the cardiac biomarkers improved the C-index. Improvements in risk classification were only seen using NT-proBNP and high-sensitivity troponin T among cases using the 28% 14-year risk threshold (4.7%; 1.0%-9.2% and 2.6%; 0.0%-5.8%, respectively). In conclusion, the improvement in treatment allocation gained by adding cardiac biomarkers to risk scores seems to depend on the risk threshold chosen for commencing preventative treatments.

Lung function and airway obstruction: associations with circulating markers of cardiac function and incident heart failure in older men-the British Regional Heart Study

Aims

The association between lung function and cardiac markers and heart failure (HF) has been little studied in the general older population. We have examined the association between lung function and airway obstruction with cardiac markers N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and cardiac troponin T (cTnT) and risk of incident HF in older men.

Methods and results

Prospective study of 3242 men aged 60–79 years without prevalent HF or myocardial infarction followed up for an average period of 13 years, in whom 211 incident HF cases occurred. Incident HF was examined in relation to % predicted FEV1 and FVC. The Global Initiative on Obstructive Lung Diseases spirometry criteria were used to define airway obstruction. Reduced FEV1, but not FVC in the normal range, was significantly associated with increased risk of HF after adjustment for established HF risk factors including inflammation. The adjusted HRs comparing men in the 6–24th percentile with the highest quartile were 1.91 (1.24 to 2.94) and 1.30 (0.86 to 1.96) for FEV1 and FVC, respectively. FEV1 and FVC were inversely associated with NT-proBNP and cTnT, although the association between FEV1 and incident HF remained after adjustment for NT-proBNP and cTnT. Compared with normal subjects (FEV1/FVC ≥0.70 and FVC≥80%), moderate or severe (FEV1/FVC <0.70 and FEV1 <80%) airflow obstruction was independently associated with HF ((adjusted relative risk 1.59 (1.08 to 2.33)). Airflow restriction (FEV1/FVC ≥0.70 and FVC <80%) was not independently associated with HF.

Conclusions

Reduced FEV1 reflecting airflow obstruction is associated with cardiac dysfunction and increased risk of incident HF in older men.

Mild hyponatremia, hypernatremia and incident cardiovascular disease and mortality in older men: A population-based cohort study

AIM

To examine the association between serum sodium concentration and incident major cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes and total mortality in older men.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A prospective study of 3099 men aged 60-79 years without a history of cardiovascular disease followed up for an average 11 years during which there were 528 major CVD events (fatal coronary heart disease [CHD] and non-fatal MI, stroke and CVD death) and 873 total deaths. A U shaped relationship was seen between serum sodium concentration and major CVD events and mortality. Hyponatremia (<136 mEq/L) and low sodium within the normal range (136-138 mEq/L) showed significantly increased risk of major CVD events and total mortality compared to men within the upper normal range (139-143 mEq/L) after adjustment for a wide range of confounders and traditional risk factors [adjusted HRs 1.55 (1.13,2.12) and 1.40 (1.14,1.72) for major CVD events respectively and 1.30 (1.02,1.66) and 1.30 (1.11,1.53) respectively for total mortality]. Hyponatremia was associated with inflammation, NT-proBNP, low muscle mass and alkaline phosphatase; these factors contributed to the increased total mortality associated with hyponatremia but did not explain the increased risk of CVD events associated with hyponatremia or low normal sodium concentration. Hypernatremia (≥145 mEq/L) was associated with significantly increased risk of CVD events and mortality due to CVD causes.

CONCLUSION

Mild hyponatremia even within the normal sodium range and hypernatremia are both associated with increased total mortality and major CVD events in older men without CVD which is not explained by known adverse CV risk factors.

Copeptin, Insulin Resistance, and Risk of Incident Diabetes in Older Men

CONTEXT

Prior studies suggested a role for the arginine vasopressin (AVP) system in the pathogenesis of diabetes. Prospective studies on the association between copeptin (the C-terminal fragment of AVP hormone) and incident diabetes are limited.

OBJECTIVE

We have examined the association between plasma copeptin and the risk of incident diabetes in older men.

DESIGN

The British Regional Heart Study was a prospective study with an average of 13 years follow-up.

SETTING

General practices in the United Kingdom were studied.

PARTICIPANTS

Participants were 3226 men aged 60 to 79 years with no prevalent diabetes.

OUTCOME

We measured 253 patients with incident diabetes.

RESULTS

Copeptin was positively and significantly associated with renal dysfunction, insulin resistance (homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance), metabolic risk factors (waist circumference, blood pressure, triglycerides, and liver function), C-reactive protein, tissue plasminogen activator, and von Willebrand factor (endothelial dysfunction) but not with plasma glucose. The risk of incident diabetes was significantly elevated only in men in the top fifth of the copeptin distribution (>6.79 pmol/L), and this risk persisted after adjustment for several diabetes risk factors including metabolic risk factors and C-reactive protein (adjusted hazard ratio in the top fifth vs the rest = 1.78 [95% confidence interval, 1.34-2.37]). Risk was markedly attenuated although it remained significant after further adjustment for homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance and plasma glucose (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.47 [1.11-1.97]). The increased risk was seen even when the analysis was restricted to men with no chronic kidney disease or to men with no impaired fasting glucose (<6.1 mmol/L).

CONCLUSION

Copeptin is associated with a significantly increased risk of diabetes in older men. The association is partly mediated through lower insulin sensitivity. The findings suggest a potential role of the AVP system in diabetes.

The neurotoxicology of carbon monoxide - Historical perspective and review

Carbon monoxide (CO) has been recognized as a poison for centuries, and remains one of the most common causes of both accidental and deliberate poisoning worldwide. Despite this, there are widespread misconceptions with regards to the mechanisms, diagnosis and outcomes of CO induced poisoning such as the idea that CO poisoning is rare; that carboxyhaemoglobin levels above 20% and loss of consciousness are required before nervous system damage ensues; and that the binding of CO to haemoglobin is the only mechanism of toxicity. Prevention and diagnosis of CO poisoning is hampered by the lack of awareness of CO as a cause of illness, among both the general public and healthcare professionals. To complicate matters further there is no standardized definition of CO poisoning. Carboxyhaemoglobin levels are often used as a marker of CO poisoning, yet plasma levels rapidly reduce upon removal of the source and are therefore an unreliable biomarker of exposure and tissue damage. Adverse neuropsychiatric outcomes after CO poisoning are difficult to define, especially as they fluctuate, mimic other non-specific complaints, and are not present in all survivors. This paper challenges a number of misconceptions about CO poisoning which can result in misdiagnosis, and consequently in mismanagement. We illustrate how recent developments in the understanding of CO toxicology explain the particular susceptibility of the central nervous system to the effects of CO exposure.

Alcohol consumption and risk of incident heart failure in older men: a prospective cohort study

Aims

Light-to-moderate drinking has been associated with reduced risk of heart failure (HF). We have examined the association between alcohol consumption and incident HF in older British men.

Methods and results

Prospective study of 3530 men aged 60–79 years with no diagnosed HF or myocardial infarction (MI) at baseline and followed up for a mean period of 11 years, in whom there were 198 incident HF cases. Men were divided into 6 categories of alcohol consumption: none, <1, 1–6, 7–13, 14–34 and ≥35 drinks/week. There was no evidence that light-to-moderate drinking is beneficial for risk of HF. Heavy drinking (≥35 drinks/week) was associated with significantly increased risk of HF. Using the large group of men drinking 1–6 drinks/week as the reference group, the relative HRs (95% confidence interval) for HF adjusted for age, lifestyle characteristics, blood pressure, atrial fibrillation and renal dysfunction were 0.97 (0.59 to 1.63), 1.39 (0.86 to 2.25), 1.00, 0.94 (0.64 to 1.43), 1.16 (0.78 to 1.71) and 1.91 (1.02 to 3.56) for the 6 alcohol groups, respectively. The increased risk associated with heavy drinking was attenuated after adjustment for N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) (HR=1.43 (0.76 to 1.69)). Stratified analysis showed heavy drinking was associated with increased HF risk only in those with ECG evidence of myocardial ischaemia.

Conclusions

There was no evidence that light-to-moderate drinking is beneficial for the prevention of HF in older men without a history of an MI. Heavier drinking (≥5 drinks/day), however, was associated with increased risk of HF in vulnerable men with underlying myocardial ischaemia.

Socio-demographic characteristics, lifestyle factors and burden of morbidity associated with self-reported hearing and vision impairments in older British community-dwelling men: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Hearing and vision problems are common in older adults. We investigated the association of self-reported sensory impairment with lifestyle factors, chronic conditions, physical functioning, quality of life and social interaction.

METHODS

A population-based cross-sectional study of participants of the British Regional Heart Study aged 63-85 years.

RESULTS

A total of 3981 men (82% response rate) provided data. Twenty-seven per cent (n = 1074) reported hearing impairment including being able to hear with aid (n = 482), being unable to hear (no aid) (n = 424) and being unable to hear despite aid (n = 168). Three per cent (n = 124) reported vision impairment. Not being able to hear, irrespective of use of hearing aid, was associated with poor quality of life, poor social interaction and poor physical functioning. Men who could not hear despite hearing aid were more likely to report coronary heart disease (CHD) [age-adjusted odds ratios (ORs) 1.89 (95% confidence interval 1.36-2.63)]. Vision impairment was associated with symptoms of CHD including breathlessness [OR 2.06 (1.38-3.06)] and chest pain [OR 1.58 (1.07-2.35)]. Vision impairment was also associated with poor quality of life, poor social interaction and poor physical functioning.

CONCLUSIONS

Sensory impairment is associated with poor physical functioning, poor health and poor social interaction in older men. Further research is warranted on pathways underlying these associations.

Diet quality in older age: the influence of childhood and adult socio-economic circumstances

Socio-economic gradients in diet quality are well established. However, the influence of material socio-economic conditions particularly in childhood, and the use of multiple disaggregated socio-economic measures on diet quality have been little studied in the elderly. In the present study, we examined childhood and adult socio-economic measures, and social relationships, as determinants of diet quality cross-sectionally in 4252 older British men (aged 60-79 years). A FFQ provided data on daily fruit and vegetable consumption and the Elderly Dietary Index (EDI), with higher scores indicating better diet quality. Adult and childhood socio-economic measures included occupation/father's occupation, education and household amenities, which combined to create composite scores. Social relationships included social contact, living arrangements and marital status. Both childhood and adult socio-economic factors were independently associated with diet quality. Compared with non-manual social class, men of childhood manual social class were less likely to consume fruit and vegetables daily (OR 0.80, 95% CI 0.66, 0.97), as were men of adult manual social class (OR 0.65, 95% CI 0.54, 0.79), and less likely to be in the top EDI quartile (OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.61, 0.88), similar to men of adult manual social class (OR 0.66, 95 % CI 0.55, 0.79). Diet quality decreased with increasing adverse adult socio-economic scores; however, the association with adverse childhood socio-economic scores diminished with adult social class adjustment. A combined adverse childhood and adulthood socio-economic score was associated with poor diet quality. Diet quality was most favourable in married men and those not living alone, but was not associated with social contact. Diet quality in older men is influenced by childhood and adulthood socio-economic factors, marital status and living arrangements.

Associations between fibrin D-dimer, markers of inflammation, incident self-reported mobility limitation, and all-cause mortality in older men

OBJECTIVES

To examine the independent relationships between fibrin D-dimer, interleukin 6 (IL-6), C-reactive protein (CRP), and fibrinogen and incident mobility limitation and mortality.

DESIGN

Prospective.

SETTING

General practice in 24 British towns.

PARTICIPANTS

Men aged 60 to 79 without prevalent heart failure followed up for an average of 11.5 years (N = 3,925).

MEASUREMENTS

All-cause mortality (n = 1,286) and self-reported mobility disability obtained at examination in 1998 to 2000 and in a postal questionnaire 3 to 5 years later in 2003.

RESULTS

High D-dimer (top vs lowest tertile: adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.46, 95% confidence interval = 1.02-2.05) and IL-6 (aOR = 1.43, 95% CI = 1.01-2.02) levels (but not CRP or fibrinogen) were associated with greater incident mobility limitation after adjustment for confounders and prevalent disease status. IL-6, CRP, fibrinogen, and D-dimer were significantly associated with total mortality after adjustment for confounders. Only D-dimer and IL-6 predicted total mortality independent of each other and the other biomarkers. The adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) was 1.16 (95% CI = 1.10-1.22) for a standard deviation increase in log D-dimer and 1.10 (95% CI = 1.04-1.18) for a standard deviation increase in log IL-6. D-dimer was independently related to vascular and nonvascular mortality, and IL-6 was independently related to vascular mortality. Risks of mobility limitation and mortality were greatest in those with a combination of high D-dimer and IL-6 levels.

CONCLUSION

D-dimer and IL-6 are associated with risk of mobility limitation and mortality in older men without heart failure. The findings suggest that coagulation leads to functional decline and mortality s that inflammation does not explain.

Elevated parathyroid hormone, but not vitamin D deficiency, is associated with increased risk of heart failure in older men with and without cardiovascular disease

BACKGROUND

Hyperparathyroidism and low vitamin D status have been implicated in the pathogenesis of heart failure (HF). We examined the prospective associations between parathyroid hormone (PTH), circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D, and markers of mineral metabolism and risk of incident HF in older men with and without established cardiovascular disease.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Prospective study of 3731 men aged 60 to 79 years with no prevalent HF followed up for a mean period of 13 years, in whom there were 287 incident HF cases. Elevated PTH (≥55.6 pg/mL; top quarter) was associated with significantly higher risk of incident HF after adjustment for lifestyle characteristics, diabetes mellitus, blood lipids, blood pressure, lung function, heart rate, renal dysfunction, atrial fibrillation, forced expiratory volume in 1 second, and C-reactive protein (hazards ratio, 1.66; 95% confidence interval, 1.30-2.13). The increased risk was seen in both men with and without previous myocardial infarction or stroke (hazards ratio, 1.72; 95% confidence interval, 1.07-2.76; hazards ratio, 1.70; 95% confidence interval, 1.25-2.30, respectively). Elevated PTH was significantly associated with N-terminal probrain natriuretic peptide, a marker of left ventricular wall stress. By contrast, 25-hydroxyvitamin D and other markers of mineral metabolism including serum calcium and phosphate showed no significant association with incident HF after adjustment for age.

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated PTH, but not 25-hydroxyvitamin D or other markers of mineral metabolism, is associated with increased risk of HF in both older men with and without myocardial infarction/stroke. This increased risk was not explained by its association with known risk factors for HF. Further studies are now needed to elucidate the mechanisms underlying this association.

Risk factors of stroke in Western and Asian countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies

Background

There has been an increasing trend in the incidence of stroke worldwide in recent years, and the number of studies focusing on the risk factors for stroke has also increased every year. To comprehensively evaluate the risk factors of stroke identified in prospective Western and Asian cohort studies.

Methods

Population-based cohort studies on stroke were searched in databases (PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, Google Scholar, etc.), and the library of the Third Military Medical University was manually searched for relevant information. A meta-analysis of Western and Asian studies on risk factors was performed. The pooled hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated to assess the final group of cohort studies.

Results

After screening, 22 prospective cohort studies were included in the analyses of this investigation. Two factors, smoking and alcohol consumption, showed statistically significant differences between Western and Asian populations, and the results were as follows (W/A): 2.05 (95% CI, 1.68 ~ 2.49)/1.27 (95% CI, 1.04 ~ 1.55) and 0.89 (95% CI, 0.76 ~ 1.04)/1.28 (95% CI, 1.07 ~ 1.53). The factor BMI = 18.5-21.9 kg/m² showed statistically significant differences only in Western populations, 0.96 (95% CI, 0.93 ~ 0.99); the factor SBP = 120-139 mm Hg showed statistically significant differences only in Asian populations, 2.29 (95% CI, 1.04 ~ 5.09).

Conclusions

The prevalences of risk factors affect the stroke morbidity in Western and Asian populations, which may be biased by race. The meta-analysis of population-based studies suggests that different preventive measures should be adopted for Western and Asian population groups that are at high risk for stroke.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1471-2458-14-776) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Time trends in socioeconomic inequalities in cancer mortality: results from a 35 year prospective study in British men

Background

Socioeconomic inequalities in cancer mortality in Britain have been shown to be present in the 1990s and early 2000s. Little is known about on-going patterns in such inequalities in cancer mortality. We examined time trends in socioeconomic inequalities in cancer mortality in Britain between 1978 and 2013.

Methods

A socially representative cohort of 7489 British men with data on longest-held occupational social class, followed up for 35 years, in whom 1484 cancer deaths occurred.

Results

The hazard ratio for cancer mortality for manual vs. non-manual social classes remained unchanged; among men aged 50–59 years it was 1.62 (95%CI 1.17–2.24) between 1980–1990 and 1.65 (95%CI 1.14–2.40) between 1990–2000. The absolute difference (non-manual minus manual) in probability of surviving death from cancer to 70 years remained at 3% over the follow-up. The consistency of risks over time was similar for both smoking-related and non-smoking related cancer mortality.

Conclusion

Socioeconomic inequalities in cancer mortality in Britain remain unchanged over the last 35 years and need to be urgently addressed.