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Champsi A, Mobley AR, Subramanian A, Nirantharakumar K, Wang X, Shukla D, Bunting KV, Molgaard I, Dwight J, Casado Arroyo R, Crijns HJGM, Guasti L, Lettino M, Lumbers RT, Maesen B, Rienstra M, Svennberg E, Țica O, Traykov V, Tzeis S, van Gelder I, Kotecha D. Gender and contemporary risk of adverse events in atrial fibrillation. Eur Heart J 2024:ehae539. [PMID: 39217497 DOI: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehae539] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/26/2024] [Revised: 04/25/2024] [Accepted: 08/08/2024] [Indexed: 09/04/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS The role of gender in decision-making for oral anticoagulation in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) remains controversial. METHODS The population cohort study used electronic healthcare records of 16 587 749 patients from UK primary care (2005-2020). Primary (composite of all-cause mortality, ischaemic stroke, or arterial thromboembolism) and secondary outcomes were analysed using Cox hazard ratios (HR), adjusted for age, socioeconomic status, and comorbidities. RESULTS 78 852 patients were included with AF, aged 40-75 years, no prior stroke, and no prescription of oral anticoagulants. 28 590 (36.3%) were women, and 50 262 (63.7%) men. Median age was 65.7 years (interquartile range 58.5-70.9), with women being older and having other differences in comorbidities. During a total follow-up of 431 086 patient-years, women had a lower adjusted primary outcome rate with HR 0.89 vs. men (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.87-0.92; P < .001) and HR 0.87 after censoring for oral anticoagulation (95% CI 0.83-0.91; P < .001). This was driven by lower mortality in women (HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.83-0.89; P < .001). No difference was identified between women and men for the secondary outcomes of ischaemic stroke or arterial thromboembolism (adjusted HR 1.00, 95% CI 0.94-1.07; P = .87), any stroke or any thromboembolism (adjusted HR 1.02, 95% CI 0.96-1.07; P = .58), and incident vascular dementia (adjusted HR 1.13, 95% CI 0.97-1.32; P = .11). Clinical risk scores were only modest predictors of outcomes, with CHA2DS2-VA (ignoring gender) superior to CHA2DS2-VASc for primary outcomes in this population (receiver operating characteristic curve area 0.651 vs. 0.639; P < .001) and no interaction with gender (P = .45). CONCLUSIONS Removal of gender from clinical risk scoring could simplify the approach to which patients with AF should be offered oral anticoagulation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Asgher Champsi
- Institute of Cardiovascular Sciences, University of Birmingham, Medical School, Vincent Drive, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK
- West Midlands NHS Secure Data Environment, University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust, Mindelsohn Way, Birmingham B15 2TH, UK
- NIHR Birmingham Biomedical Research Centre, Institute of Translational Medicine, Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Heritage Building, Mindelsohn Way, Birmingham B15 2TH, UK
| | - Alastair R Mobley
- Institute of Cardiovascular Sciences, University of Birmingham, Medical School, Vincent Drive, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK
- West Midlands NHS Secure Data Environment, University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust, Mindelsohn Way, Birmingham B15 2TH, UK
- NIHR Birmingham Biomedical Research Centre, Institute of Translational Medicine, Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Heritage Building, Mindelsohn Way, Birmingham B15 2TH, UK
| | - Anuradhaa Subramanian
- Institute of Applied Health Research, University of Birmingham, University Road West, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK
| | - Krishnarajah Nirantharakumar
- West Midlands NHS Secure Data Environment, University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust, Mindelsohn Way, Birmingham B15 2TH, UK
- NIHR Birmingham Biomedical Research Centre, Institute of Translational Medicine, Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Heritage Building, Mindelsohn Way, Birmingham B15 2TH, UK
- Institute of Applied Health Research, University of Birmingham, University Road West, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK
| | - Xiaoxia Wang
- Institute of Cardiovascular Sciences, University of Birmingham, Medical School, Vincent Drive, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK
- NIHR Birmingham Biomedical Research Centre, Institute of Translational Medicine, Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Heritage Building, Mindelsohn Way, Birmingham B15 2TH, UK
| | - David Shukla
- West Midlands NHS Secure Data Environment, University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust, Mindelsohn Way, Birmingham B15 2TH, UK
- Institute of Applied Health Research, University of Birmingham, University Road West, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK
| | - Karina V Bunting
- Institute of Cardiovascular Sciences, University of Birmingham, Medical School, Vincent Drive, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK
- NIHR Birmingham Biomedical Research Centre, Institute of Translational Medicine, Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Heritage Building, Mindelsohn Way, Birmingham B15 2TH, UK
| | - Inge Molgaard
- Patient & Public Representatives, European Society of Cardiology, Sophia Antipolis, France
| | - Jeremy Dwight
- Patient & Public Representatives, European Society of Cardiology, Sophia Antipolis, France
| | - Ruben Casado Arroyo
- Department of Cardiology, H.U.B.-Hôpital Erasme, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels 1070, Belgium
| | - Harry J G M Crijns
- Department of Cardiology, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht, The Netherlands
- Cardiovascular Research Institute (CARIM), Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands
| | - Luigina Guasti
- Department of Medicine and Surgery, University of Insubria, Varese, Italy
| | - Maddalena Lettino
- Cardiothoracic and Vascular Department, Fondazione IRCCS San Gerardo dei Tintori, Monza, Italy
| | - R Thomas Lumbers
- Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, UK
- NIHR University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre, London, UK
| | - Bart Maesen
- Department of Cardiology, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht, The Netherlands
- Cardiovascular Research Institute (CARIM), Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands
| | - Michiel Rienstra
- Department of Cardiology, University of Groningen, University Medical Centre Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - Emma Svennberg
- Department of Medicine Huddinge, Karolinska Institutet, Karolinska University Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Otilia Țica
- Institute of Cardiovascular Sciences, University of Birmingham, Medical School, Vincent Drive, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK
- Cardiology Department, Emergency County Clinical Hospital of Oradea, Oradea, Romania
| | - Vassil Traykov
- Clinic of Cardiology, Acibadem City Clinic Tokuda University Hospital, Sofia, Bulgaria
| | | | - Isabelle van Gelder
- Department of Cardiology, University of Groningen, University Medical Centre Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - Dipak Kotecha
- Institute of Cardiovascular Sciences, University of Birmingham, Medical School, Vincent Drive, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK
- West Midlands NHS Secure Data Environment, University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust, Mindelsohn Way, Birmingham B15 2TH, UK
- NIHR Birmingham Biomedical Research Centre, Institute of Translational Medicine, Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Heritage Building, Mindelsohn Way, Birmingham B15 2TH, UK
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2
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Himmelreich JCL, Virdone S, Camm J, Pieper K, Harskamp RE, Oto A, Jacobson BF, Sawhney JPS, Lim TW, Gibbs H, Goto S, Haas S, Fox KAA, Jansky P, Verheugt F, Kakkar AK. Impact of patient selection in clinical trials: application of ROCKET AF and ARISTOTLE criteria in GARFIELD-AF. Open Heart 2024; 11:e002708. [PMID: 38955399 PMCID: PMC11217994 DOI: 10.1136/openhrt-2024-002708] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/09/2024] [Accepted: 06/19/2024] [Indexed: 07/04/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The extent to which differences in results from Apixaban for Reduction in Stroke and Other Thromboembolic Events in Atrial Fibrillation (ARISTOTLE) and Rivaroxaban Once Daily Oral Direct Factor Xa Inhibition Compared with Vitamin K Antagonism for Prevention of Stroke and Embolism Trial (ROCKET) atrial fibrillation (AF)-the landmark trials for the approval of apixaban and rivaroxaban, respectively, for non-valvular AF-were influenced by differences in their protocols is debated. The potential influence of selection criteria on trial results was assessed by emulating these trials in data from the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the Field (GARFIELD)-AF registry. METHODS Vitamin K antagonist (VKA) and non-vitamin K oral antagonist (NOAC) users from GARFIELD-AF were selected according to eligibility for the original ARISTOTLE or ROCKET AF trials. A propensity score overlap weighted Cox model was used to emulate trial randomisation between treatment groups. Adjusted HRs for stroke or systemic embolism (SE) within 2 years of enrolment were calculated for each NOAC versus VKA. RESULTS Among patients on apixaban, rivaroxaban and VKA, 2570, 3560 and 8005 were eligible for ARISTOTLE, respectively, and 1612, 2005 and 4368, respectively, for ROCKET AF. When selecting for ARISTOTLE criteria, apixaban users had significantly lower stroke/SE risk versus VKA (HR 0.57; 95% CI 0.34 to 0.94) while no reduction was observed with rivaroxaban (HR 0.98; 95% CI 0.68 to 1.40). When selecting for ROCKET AF criteria, safety and efficacy versus VKA were similar across the NOACs. CONCLUSION Apixaban and rivaroxaban showed similar results versus VKA in high-risk patients selected according to ROCKET AF criteria, whereas differences emerged when selecting for the more inclusive ARISTOTLE criteria. Our results highlight the importance of trial selection criteria in interpreting trial results and underline the problems faced in comparing treatments across rather than within clinical trials.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jelle C L Himmelreich
- Department of General Practice, Amsterdam UMC location University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
- Thrombosis Research Institute, London, UK
- Amsterdam Public Health, Personalized Medicine, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | | | - John Camm
- Cardiology, St George's Hospital, London, Ohio, USA
| | | | - Ralf E Harskamp
- Department of General Practice, Amsterdam UMC location University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
- Amsterdam Public Health, Personalized Medicine, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Ali Oto
- Cardiology, Memorial Ankara Hospital, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Barry F Jacobson
- University of the Witwatersrand Johannesburg, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | | | - Toon Wei Lim
- Cardiology, National University Heart Centre, Singapore
| | - Harry Gibbs
- Medicine Alfred Hospital, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Shinya Goto
- Tokai University School of Medicine Graduate School of Medicine, Isehara, Kanagawa, Japan
| | - Sylvia Haas
- Haemostasis and Thrombosis Research Group, Institute for Experimental Oncology and Therapy Research, Formerly Technical University Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Keith A A Fox
- Cardiology, University of Edinburgh and Royal Infirmary, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Petr Jansky
- University Hospital Motol, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Freek Verheugt
- Cardiology, Onze Lieve Vrouwe Gasthuis, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Ajay K Kakkar
- Thrombosis Research Institute, London, UK
- Department of Surgery, University College London, London, UK
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Lucà F, Oliva F, Giubilato S, Abrignani MG, Rao CM, Cornara S, Caretta G, Di Fusco SA, Ceravolo R, Parrini I, Murrone A, Geraci G, Riccio C, Gelsomino S, Colivicchi F, Grimaldi M, Gulizia MM. Exploring the Perioperative Use of DOACs, off the Beaten Track. J Clin Med 2024; 13:3076. [PMID: 38892787 PMCID: PMC11172442 DOI: 10.3390/jcm13113076] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/31/2024] [Revised: 05/19/2024] [Accepted: 05/21/2024] [Indexed: 06/21/2024] Open
Abstract
A notable increase in direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC) use has been observed in the last decade. This trend has surpassed the prescription of vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) due to the absence of the need for regular laboratory monitoring and the more favorable characteristics in terms of efficacy and safety. However, it is very common that patients on DOACs need an interventional or surgical procedure, requiring a careful evaluation and a challenging approach. Therefore, perioperative anticoagulation management of patients on DOACs represents a growing concern for clinicians. Indeed, while several surgical interventions require temporary discontinuation of DOACs, other procedures that involve a lower risk of bleeding can be conducted, maintaining a minimal or uninterrupted DOAC strategy. Therefore, a comprehensive evaluation of patient characteristics, including age, susceptibility to stroke, previous bleeding complications, concurrent medications, renal and hepatic function, and other factors, in addition to surgical considerations, is mandatory to establish the optimal discontinuation and resumption timing of DOACs. A multidisciplinary approach is required for managing perioperative anticoagulation in order to establish how to face these circumstances. This narrative review aims to provide physicians with a practical guide for DOAC perioperative management, addressing the most controversial issues.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fabiana Lucà
- Cardiology Department, Grande Ospedale Metropolitano, GOM, AO Bianchi Melacrino Morelli, 89124 Reggio Calabria, Italy;
| | - Fabrizio Oliva
- Cardiology Unit, ASST Grande Ospedale Metropolitano Niguarda, 20162 Milano, Italy;
| | - Simona Giubilato
- Cardiology Department, Cannizzaro Hospital, 95126 Catania, Italy;
| | | | - Carmelo Massimiliano Rao
- Cardiology Department, Grande Ospedale Metropolitano, GOM, AO Bianchi Melacrino Morelli, 89124 Reggio Calabria, Italy;
| | - Stefano Cornara
- Arrhytmia Unit, Division of Cardiology, Ospedale San Paolo, Azienda Sanitaria Locale 2, 17100 Savona, Italy
| | - Giorgio Caretta
- Sant’Andrea Hospital, ASL 5 Regione Liguria, 19124 La Spezia, Italy
| | | | - Roberto Ceravolo
- Clinical and Rehabilitation Cardiology Department, San Filippo Neri Hospital, ASL Roma 1, 00135 Roma, Italy;
| | - Iris Parrini
- Cardiology Department, Mauriziano Hospital, 10128 Torino, Italy;
| | - Adriano Murrone
- Cardiology Unit, Città di Castello Hospital, 06012 Città di Castello, Italy;
| | - Giovanna Geraci
- Cardiology Department, Sant’Antonio Abate Hospital, ASP Trapani, 91100 Erice, Italy;
| | - Carmine Riccio
- Cardiovascular Department, Sant’Anna e San Sebastiano Hospital, 95122 Caserta, Italy;
| | - Sandro Gelsomino
- Cardiovascular Research Institute, Maastricht University, 6211 LK Maastricht, The Netherlands;
| | - Furio Colivicchi
- Cardiology Unit, Giovanni Paolo II Hospital, 97100 Lamezia, Italy; (S.A.D.F.); (F.C.)
| | - Massimo Grimaldi
- Cardiology Department, F. Miulli Hospital, Acquaviva delle Fonti, 70021 Bari, Italy;
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Lampert R, Chung EH, Ackerman MJ, Arroyo AR, Darden D, Deo R, Dolan J, Etheridge SP, Gray BR, Harmon KG, James CA, Kim JH, Krahn AD, La Gerche A, Link MS, MacIntyre C, Mont L, Salerno JC, Shah MJ. 2024 HRS expert consensus statement on arrhythmias in the athlete: Evaluation, treatment, and return to play. Heart Rhythm 2024:S1547-5271(24)02560-8. [PMID: 38763377 DOI: 10.1016/j.hrthm.2024.05.018] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/09/2024] [Accepted: 05/09/2024] [Indexed: 05/21/2024]
Abstract
Youth and adult participation in sports continues to increase, and athletes may be diagnosed with potentially arrhythmogenic cardiac conditions. This international multidisciplinary document is intended to guide electrophysiologists, sports cardiologists, and associated health care team members in the diagnosis, treatment, and management of arrhythmic conditions in the athlete with the goal of facilitating return to sport and avoiding the harm caused by restriction. Expert, disease-specific risk assessment in the context of athlete symptoms and diagnoses is emphasized throughout the document. After appropriate risk assessment, management of arrhythmias geared toward return to play when possible is addressed. Other topics include shared decision-making and emergency action planning. The goal of this document is to provide evidence-based recommendations impacting all areas in the care of athletes with arrhythmic conditions. Areas in need of further study are also discussed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rachel Lampert
- Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut
| | - Eugene H Chung
- Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts
| | | | | | | | - Rajat Deo
- University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
| | - Joe Dolan
- University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah
| | | | - Belinda R Gray
- University of Sydney, Camperdown, New South Wales, Australia
| | | | | | | | - Andrew D Krahn
- University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Andre La Gerche
- Baker Heart & Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Mark S Link
- UT Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, Texas
| | | | - Lluis Mont
- Hospital Clínic, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Jack C Salerno
- University of Washington School of Medicine, Seattle, Washington
| | - Maully J Shah
- Childrens Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
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5
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Bruun-Jensen M, Winther S, Schmidt SE, Møller Dahl C. DARE-ISC model for prediction of 1-year ischaemic stroke risk in the general population and atrial fibrillation patients: a Danish nationwide cohort study. BMJ Open 2024; 14:e076640. [PMID: 38760046 PMCID: PMC11103190 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2023-076640] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/13/2023] [Accepted: 05/04/2024] [Indexed: 05/19/2024] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To develop a risk assessment model (DAnish REgister Ischaemic Stroke Classifier, DARE-ISC) for predicting 1-year primary ischaemic stroke/systemic embolism (SE) in the general population. Secondly, to validate the accuracy DARE-ISC in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients where well-established models and risk scores exist. DESIGN Retrospective cohort study. DARE-ISC was developed using gradient boosting decision trees with information from 375 covariates including baseline information on relevant diagnoses, demographic characteristics, registered health-services, lifestyle-related covariates, hereditary stroke components, drug prescriptions and stress proxies. SETTING Danish nationwide registries. PARTICIPANTS All Danish individuals aged ≥18 from 2010 to 2017 (n=35 519 348 person-years). The model was trained on the 2010-2016 cohorts with validation in the 2017 cohort. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES Model optimisation and validation were performed through comparison of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and average precision scores. Additionally, the relative importance of the model covariates was derived using SHAP values. RESULTS DARE-ISC had an AUC (95% CI) of 0.874 (0.871 to 0.876) in the general population. In AF patients, DARE-ISC was superior to the GARFIELD-AF risk model and CHA2DS2-VASc score with AUC of 0.779 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.806), 0.704 (95% CI 0.674 to 0.732) and 0.681 (95% CI 0.652 to 0.709), respectively. Furthermore, in AF patients, DARE-ISC had an average threefold and fourfold higher ratio of correctly identified strokes compared with the GARFIELD-AF risk model and CHA2DS2-VASc score, as indicated by average precision scores of 0.119, 0.041 and 0.034, respectively. CONCLUSIONS DARE-ISC had a very high stroke prediction accuracy in the general population and was superior to the GARFIELD-AF risk model and CHA2DS2-VASc score for predicting ischaemic stroke/SE in AF patients.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Simon Winther
- Department of Cardiology, Gødstrup Hospital, Herning, Denmark
- Department of Clinical Medicine, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
| | - Samuel Emil Schmidt
- Department of Health Science and Technology, Aalborg Universitet, Aalborg, Denmark
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Noubiap JJ, Nyaga UF, Middeldorp ME, Stokes MB, Sanders P. Cardiac imaging correlates and predictors of stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation: a meta-analysis. J Cardiovasc Med (Hagerstown) 2024; 25:280-293. [PMID: 38407860 DOI: 10.2459/jcm.0000000000001608] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/27/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND New nonclinical parameters are needed to improve the current stroke risk stratification schemes for patients with atrial fibrillation. This study aimed to summarize data on potential cardiac imaging correlates and predictors of stroke or systemic embolism in patients with atrial fibrillation. METHODS MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Web of Science were searched to identify all published studies providing relevant data through 16 November 2022. Random effects meta-analysis method was used to pool estimates. RESULTS We included 64 studies reporting data from a pooled population of 56 639 patients. Left atrial spontaneous echo-contrast [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 3.32, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.98-5.49], nonchicken wing left atrial appendage (LAA) morphology (aOR 2.15, 95% CI 1.11-4.18), left atrial enlargement (aOR 2.12, 95% CI 1.45-3.08), and higher LAA orifice diameter (aOR 1.56, 95% CI 1.18-2.05) were highly associated with stroke. Other parameters associated with stroke included higher left atrial sphericity (aOR 1.14, 95% CI 1.01-1.29), higher left atrial volume (aOR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.04), higher left atrial volume index (aOR 1.014, 95% CI 1.004-1.023), lower left atrial reservoir strain [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 0.86, 95% CI 0.76-0.98], higher left ventricular mass index (aOR 1.010, 95% CI 1.005-1.015) and E / e' ratio (aOR 1.12, 95% CI 1.07-1.16). There was no association between LAA volume (aOR 1.37, 95% CI 0.85-2.21) and stroke. CONCLUSION These cardiac imaging parameters identified as potential predictors of thromboembolism may improve the accuracy of stroke risk stratification schemes in patients with atrial fibrillation. Further studies should evaluate the performance of holistic risk scores including clinical factors, biomarkers, and cardiac imaging.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jean Jacques Noubiap
- Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, University of California-San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA
- Centre for Heart Rhythm Disorders, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia
| | | | - Melissa E Middeldorp
- Centre for Heart Rhythm Disorders, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia
- Smidt Heart Institute, Cedar-Sinai Medical Centre, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | - Michael B Stokes
- Centre for Heart Rhythm Disorders, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia
| | - Prashanthan Sanders
- Centre for Heart Rhythm Disorders, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia
- Department of Cardiology, Royal Adelaide Hospital, Adelaide, Australia
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Cemin R, Maggioni AP, Gonzini L, Di Pasquale G, Boriani G, Di Lenarda A, Nardi F, Gulizia MM. Simple scores to predict 1-year mortality in atrial fibrillation. J Cardiovasc Med (Hagerstown) 2024; 25:271-279. [PMID: 38488064 DOI: 10.2459/jcm.0000000000001602] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/19/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Traditional scores as CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-Vasc are suitable for predicting stroke and systemic embolism in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and have shown to be also associated with mortality. Other more complex scores have been recommended for survival prediction. The purpose of our analysis was to test the performance of different clinical scores in predicting 1-year mortality in AF patients. MATERIAL AND METHODS CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-Vasc scores were calculated for AF patients of the BLITZ-AF register and compared to R2-CHADS2, R2-CHA2DS2-Vasc and CHA2DS2VASc-RAF scores in predicting 1-year survival. Scores including renal function were calculated both with glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and creatinine clearance. RESULTS One-year vital status (1960 alive and 199 dead) was available in 2159 patients. Receiver-operating characteristic curves displayed an association of each score to all-cause mortality, with R2(ClCrea)-CHADS2 being the best [area under the curve (AUC) 0.734]. Differences among the AUCs of the eight scores were not so evident, and a significant difference was found only between R2(ClCrea)-CHADS2 and CHADS2, CHA2DS2VASc, (ClCrea)-CHA2DS2-VASC-RAF.All the scores showed a similar performance for cardiovascular (CV) mortality, with CHA2DS2VASc-RAF being the best (AUC 0.757), with a significant difference with respect to CHADS2, CHA2DS2VASc, and (ClCrea)CHA2DS2Vasc-RAF. CONCLUSIONS More complex scores, even if with better statistical performance, do not show a clinically relevant higher capability to discriminate alive or dead patients at 12 months. The classical and well known CHA2DS2VASc score, which is routinely used all around the world, has a high sensitivity in predicting all-cause mortality (AUC 0.695; Sensit. 80.4%) and CV mortality (AUC 0.691; Sensit. 80.0%). GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT http://links.lww.com/JCM/A632.
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Affiliation(s)
- Roberto Cemin
- Department of Cardiology, San Maurizio Regional Hospital of Bolzano, Bolzano
| | | | - Lucio Gonzini
- ANMCO Research Center, Heart Care Foundation, Firenze
| | | | - Giuseppe Boriani
- Cardiology Division, Department of Biomedical, Metabolic and Neural Sciences, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Policlinico di Modena, Modena
| | - Andrea Di Lenarda
- Territorial Specialist Department, SC Cardiovascular Pathologies, Azienda Sanitaria Universitaria Giuliano Isontina (ASUGI), Trieste
| | - Federico Nardi
- Division of Cardiology, Santo Spirito Hospital, Casale Monferrato
| | - Michele Massimo Gulizia
- Cardiology Department, Garibaldi-Nesima Hospital, Azienda di Rilievo Nazionale e Alta Specializzazione "Garibaldi", Catania, Italy
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8
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Ali A, Siddiqui AA, Ali M, Shahid I. Meta-analysis on performance of ABC and GARFIELD-AF compared to CHA 2DS 2-VASc and HAS-BLED in anticoagulated atrial fibrillation patients. CARDIOVASCULAR REVASCULARIZATION MEDICINE 2024; 60:74-81. [PMID: 37880043 DOI: 10.1016/j.carrev.2023.10.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/09/2023] [Revised: 10/06/2023] [Accepted: 10/09/2023] [Indexed: 10/27/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND When high thromboembolic and bleeding risks coexist, the former tends to influence physicians' decision making for anti-coagulation therapy. However, the ideal is to weigh the risk of major bleeding and stroke together to ensure effective anti-coagulation treatment, which is a limitation of traditional guideline recommended CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED. This meta-analysis assesses the performance of the two new scores - ABC and GARFIELD-AF compared to CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED for major bleeding and stroke outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) on anticoagulation therapy. METHODS MEDLINE and Cochrane central were searched from 2010 to February 2023 that compared GARFIELD-AF and/or ABC with CHA2DS2-VASc and/or HAS-BLED scores using C-statistics to assess their discriminative ability. RESULTS 12 studies were included in this meta-analysis. When assessing stroke risk prediction, GARFIELD-AF stroke (C-Statistic: 0.71; 95 % CI: 0.70-0.72; I2 = 0 %, p < 0.05) was found to be significantly better than ABC-stroke (C-Statistic: 0.67; 95 % CI: 0.65-0.68; I2 = 0 %, p < 0.05), and CHA2DS2-VASc (C-Statistic: 0.64; 95 % CI: 0.60-0.67; I2 = 92 %, p < 0.05). Additionally, when assessing bleeding risk prediction, ABC-bleeding (C-Statistic: 0.66; 95 % CI: 0.61-0.70; I2 = 84 %, p < 0.05), GARFIELD-AF (C-Statistic: 0.64; 95 % CI: 0.60-0.68; I2 = 95 %, p < 0.05), and HAS-BLED (C-Statistic: 0.64; 95 % CI: 0.62-0.66; I2 = 85 %, p < 0.05) all showed equivalent performances. CONCLUSION The GARFIELD-AF stroke score showed superior performance to the well-established CHA2DS2-VASc score as well as the ABC-stroke score. Therefore, new guidelines should favor GARFIELD-AF use in clinical practice.
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Affiliation(s)
- Abraish Ali
- Department of Medicine, Dow University of Health Sciences, Karachi, Pakistan.
| | - Asad Ali Siddiqui
- Department of Medicine, Dow University of Health Sciences, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Mirha Ali
- Department of Medicine, Jinnah Sindh Medical University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Izza Shahid
- Division of Preventive Cardiology, Houston Methodist Academic Institute, Houston, TX, USA
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9
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Gaboreau Y, Frappé P, Vermorel C, Foote A, Bosson JL, Pernod G. Oral anticoagulant safety in family practice: prognostic accuracy of Bleeding Risk Scores (from the CACAO study). Fam Pract 2024; 41:9-17. [PMID: 38281089 DOI: 10.1093/fampra/cmad121] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/29/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND To assess bleeding risk of patients treated by oral anticoagulants, several scores have been constructed to assist physicians in the evaluation of the benefit risk. Most of these scores lack a strong enough level of evidence for use in family practice. OBJECTIVE To assess the predictive prognostic accuracy of 13 scores designed to assess the risk of major or clinically relevant non-major (CRNM) bleeding events in a French ambulatory cohort receiving Vitamin-K antagonists (VKA) or direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) in a family practice setting. METHODS CACAO (Comparison of Accidents and their Circumstances with Oral Anticoagulants) was a multicentre prospective cohort of ambulatory patients prescribed oral anticoagulants. We selected patients from the cohort who had received an oral anticoagulant because of non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) and/or venous thromboembolism (VTE) to be followed during one year by their GP. The following scores were calculated: mOBRI, Shireman, Kuijer, HEMORR2HAGES, ATRIA, HAS-BLED, RIETE, VTE-BLEED, ACCP score, Rutherford, ABH-Score, GARFIEL-AF, and Outcomes Registry for Better InformedTreatment of Atrial Fibrillation (ORBIT). Prognostic accuracy was assessed by using receiver operating characteristic curves and c-statistics. RESULTS During 1 year, 3,082 patients were followed. All of the scores demonstrated only poor to moderate ability to predict major bleeding or CRNM in NVAF patients on DOACs (c-statistic: 0.41-0.66 and 0.45-0.58), respectively. The results were only slightly better for patients prescribed VKA (0.47-0.66 and 0.5-0.55, respectively) in this indication. The results were also unsatisfactory in patients treated for VTE. CONCLUSION None of the scores demonstrated satisfactory discriminatory ability when used in family practice. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02376777.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yoann Gaboreau
- Department of General Practice, Grenoble Alpes University, Grenoble, France
- TIMC UMR 5525, Grenoble Alpes University, Grenoble, France
- Pluriprofessionnal Primary Health Care Center, Les Marches, Porte-De-Savoie, France
| | - Paul Frappé
- Department of General Practice, University of Saint-Etienne, Saint-Etienne, France
- Inserm UMR 1059, Sainbiose DVH, University of Saint-Etienne, Saint-Etienne, France
- Inserm CIC-EC 1408, Saint-Etienne, France
| | | | - Alison Foote
- Department of General Practice, Grenoble Alpes University, Grenoble, France
- Grenoble, France
| | | | - Gilles Pernod
- TIMC UMR 5525, Grenoble Alpes University, Grenoble, France
- Vascular Medicine Unit, Grenoble Alpes University Hospital, Grenoble, France
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10
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Joglar JA, Chung MK, Armbruster AL, Benjamin EJ, Chyou JY, Cronin EM, Deswal A, Eckhardt LL, Goldberger ZD, Gopinathannair R, Gorenek B, Hess PL, Hlatky M, Hogan G, Ibeh C, Indik JH, Kido K, Kusumoto F, Link MS, Linta KT, Marcus GM, McCarthy PM, Patel N, Patton KK, Perez MV, Piccini JP, Russo AM, Sanders P, Streur MM, Thomas KL, Times S, Tisdale JE, Valente AM, Van Wagoner DR. 2023 ACC/AHA/ACCP/HRS Guideline for the Diagnosis and Management of Atrial Fibrillation: A Report of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Joint Committee on Clinical Practice Guidelines. Circulation 2024; 149:e1-e156. [PMID: 38033089 PMCID: PMC11095842 DOI: 10.1161/cir.0000000000001193] [Citation(s) in RCA: 276] [Impact Index Per Article: 276.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/02/2023]
Abstract
AIM The "2023 ACC/AHA/ACCP/HRS Guideline for the Diagnosis and Management of Atrial Fibrillation" provides recommendations to guide clinicians in the treatment of patients with atrial fibrillation. METHODS A comprehensive literature search was conducted from May 12, 2022, to November 3, 2022, encompassing studies, reviews, and other evidence conducted on human subjects that were published in English from PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, and other selected databases relevant to this guideline. Additional relevant studies, published through November 2022, during the guideline writing process, were also considered by the writing committee and added to the evidence tables, where appropriate. STRUCTURE Atrial fibrillation is the most sustained common arrhythmia, and its incidence and prevalence are increasing in the United States and globally. Recommendations from the "2014 AHA/ACC/HRS Guideline for the Management of Patients With Atrial Fibrillation" and the "2019 AHA/ACC/HRS Focused Update of the 2014 AHA/ACC/HRS Guideline for the Management of Patients With Atrial Fibrillation" have been updated with new evidence to guide clinicians. In addition, new recommendations addressing atrial fibrillation and thromboembolic risk assessment, anticoagulation, left atrial appendage occlusion, atrial fibrillation catheter or surgical ablation, and risk factor modification and atrial fibrillation prevention have been developed.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Anita Deswal
- ACC/AHA Joint Committee on Clinical Practice Guidelines liaison
| | | | | | | | | | - Paul L Hess
- ACC/AHA Joint Committee on Performance Measures liaison
| | | | | | | | | | - Kazuhiko Kido
- American College of Clinical Pharmacy representative
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11
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Joglar JA, Chung MK, Armbruster AL, Benjamin EJ, Chyou JY, Cronin EM, Deswal A, Eckhardt LL, Goldberger ZD, Gopinathannair R, Gorenek B, Hess PL, Hlatky M, Hogan G, Ibeh C, Indik JH, Kido K, Kusumoto F, Link MS, Linta KT, Marcus GM, McCarthy PM, Patel N, Patton KK, Perez MV, Piccini JP, Russo AM, Sanders P, Streur MM, Thomas KL, Times S, Tisdale JE, Valente AM, Van Wagoner DR. 2023 ACC/AHA/ACCP/HRS Guideline for the Diagnosis and Management of Atrial Fibrillation: A Report of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Joint Committee on Clinical Practice Guidelines. J Am Coll Cardiol 2024; 83:109-279. [PMID: 38043043 PMCID: PMC11104284 DOI: 10.1016/j.jacc.2023.08.017] [Citation(s) in RCA: 66] [Impact Index Per Article: 66.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/04/2023]
Abstract
AIM The "2023 ACC/AHA/ACCP/HRS Guideline for the Diagnosis and Management of Patients With Atrial Fibrillation" provides recommendations to guide clinicians in the treatment of patients with atrial fibrillation. METHODS A comprehensive literature search was conducted from May 12, 2022, to November 3, 2022, encompassing studies, reviews, and other evidence conducted on human subjects that were published in English from PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, and other selected databases relevant to this guideline. Additional relevant studies, published through November 2022, during the guideline writing process, were also considered by the writing committee and added to the evidence tables, where appropriate. STRUCTURE Atrial fibrillation is the most sustained common arrhythmia, and its incidence and prevalence are increasing in the United States and globally. Recommendations from the "2014 AHA/ACC/HRS Guideline for the Management of Patients With Atrial Fibrillation" and the "2019 AHA/ACC/HRS Focused Update of the 2014 AHA/ACC/HRS Guideline for the Management of Patients With Atrial Fibrillation" have been updated with new evidence to guide clinicians. In addition, new recommendations addressing atrial fibrillation and thromboembolic risk assessment, anticoagulation, left atrial appendage occlusion, atrial fibrillation catheter or surgical ablation, and risk factor modification and atrial fibrillation prevention have been developed.
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12
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Kreutz R, Deray G, Floege J, Gwechenberger M, Hahn K, Luft AR, Persson P, Axthelm C, Beer JH, Bergler-Klein J, Lellouche N, Taggeselle J, Beyer-Westendorf J. Risk Profiles and Treatment Patterns in Atrial Fibrillation Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease Receiving or not Receiving Anticoagulation Therapy. TH OPEN 2024; 8:e106-e113. [PMID: 38406259 PMCID: PMC10890905 DOI: 10.1055/s-0044-1780529] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/17/2023] [Accepted: 12/21/2023] [Indexed: 02/27/2024] Open
Abstract
Background Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) are at high risk for both thromboembolism and bleeding events. The latter induces a potential reason for withholding oral anticoagulation (OAC) despite an indication for prophylaxis of thromboembolic events. Methods AF patients with CKD (estimated glomerular filtration [eGFR] rate between 15 and 49 mL/min per 1.73 m 2 ) were included in a prospective international registry in Europe between 2016 and 2020, that is, XARENO (factor XA inhibition in renal patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation observational registry). The study enrolled adult patients treated at the discretion of physicians with rivaroxaban, vitamin K antagonists (VKA), or without OAC (w/oOAC). Here, we report a prespecified explorative baseline comparison between patients receiving OAC or no OAC within XARENO. Results In total, 1,544 patients (mean age: 78.2 years, mean eGFR: 36.2 mL/min) were studied (rivaroxaban n = 764, VKA n = 691, w/oOAC n = 89). Patients in the w/oOAC group were older and had a similar stroke (mean CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score 4.0) but higher bleeding risk (mean modified Hypertension, Abnormal Renal/Liver Function, Stroke, Bleeding History or Predisposition, Labile INR, Elderly, Drugs/Alcohol Concomitantly score 2.5 vs. 1.8) compared with the OAC groups. The distribution of comorbidities including hypertension, diabetes, and heart failure was similar. Treatment with antiplatelet drugs was fivefold more frequent in the w/oOAC group. Conclusion Only 5.8% of the overall population of AF patients with advanced CKD received no OAC. These patients were older and had a higher bleeding risk, which might explain this decision, but which contrasts with the more frequent use of antiplatelet drugs in this vulnerable group of patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Reinhold Kreutz
- Institute of Clinical Pharmacology and Toxicology, Charité – Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Gilbert Deray
- Department of Nephrology, Pitié-Salpêtrière Hospital, Paris 6 University, Paris, France
| | - Jürgen Floege
- Division of Nephrology and Clinical Immunology, RWTH Aachen University Hospital, Aachen, Germany
| | - Marianne Gwechenberger
- Division of Cardiology, University Department of Internal Medicine II, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Kai Hahn
- Nephrologische Praxis, Dortmund, Germany
| | - Andreas R. Luft
- Center for Neurology and Rehabilitation, Klinik für Neurologie, Universitätsspital Zürich, Switzerland and Cereneo, Vitznau, Switzerland
| | - Pontus Persson
- Institut für Vegetative Physiologie, Charité – Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | | | - Juerg Hans Beer
- Department Innere Medizin, Baden Switzerland and Center of Molecular Cardiology, Kantonsspital Baden, University of Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Jutta Bergler-Klein
- Division of Cardiology, University Department of Internal Medicine II, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Nicolas Lellouche
- Service de Cardiologie 1, Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Henri Mondor, Créteil, France
| | | | - Jan Beyer-Westendorf
- Thrombosis Research Unit, Division Haematology, Department of Medicine I, University Hospital Carl Gustav Carus Dresden, Dresden, Germany
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13
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Bhagirath V, Kovalova T, Wang J, Xu L, Bangdiwala SI, O'Donnell M, Shoamanesh A, Bosch J, Coppolecchia R, Vaitsiakhovich T, Kleinjung F, Mundl H, Eikelboom J. Bleeding Risk Prediction in Patients Treated with Antithrombotic Drugs According to the Anatomic Site of Bleeding, Indication for Treatment, and Time Since Treatment Initiation. TH OPEN 2024; 8:e121-e131. [PMID: 38505564 PMCID: PMC10948265 DOI: 10.1055/a-2259-1134] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/29/2023] [Accepted: 01/28/2024] [Indexed: 03/21/2024] Open
Abstract
Background Reasons for the relatively poor performance of bleeding prediction models are not well understood but may relate to differences in predictors for various anatomical sites of bleeding. Methods We pooled individual participant data from four randomized controlled trials of antithrombotic therapy in patients with coronary and peripheral artery diseases, embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS), or atrial fibrillation. We examined discrimination and calibration of models for any major bleeding, major gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding, and intracranial hemorrhage (ICH), according to the time since initiation of antithrombotic therapy, and indication for antithrombotic therapy. Results Of 57,813 patients included, 1,948 (3.37%) experienced major bleeding, including 717 (1.24%) major GI bleeding and 274 (0.47%) ICH. The model derived to predict major bleeding at 1 year from any site (c-index, 0.69, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.68-0.71) performed similarly when applied to predict major GI bleeding (0.71, 0.69-0.74), but less well to predict ICH (0.64, 0.61-0.69). Models derived to predict GI bleeding (0.75, 0.74-0.78) and ICH (0.72, 0.70-0.79) performed better than the general major bleeding model. Discrimination declined over time since the initiation of antithrombotic treatment, stabilizing at approximately 2 years for any major bleeding and major GI bleeding and 1 year for ICH. Discrimination was best for the model predicting ICH in the ESUS population (0.82, 0.78-0.92) and worst for the model predicting any major bleeding in the coronary and peripheral artery disease population (0.66, 0.65-0.69). Conclusion Performance of risk prediction models for major bleeding is affected by site of bleeding, time since initiation of antithrombotic therapy, and indication for antithrombotic therapy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vinai Bhagirath
- Population Health Research Institute, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
- McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
| | - Tanya Kovalova
- Population Health Research Institute, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
| | - Jia Wang
- Population Health Research Institute, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
| | - Lizhen Xu
- Population Health Research Institute, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
| | - Shrikant I. Bangdiwala
- Population Health Research Institute, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
- McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
| | - Martin O'Donnell
- Population Health Research Institute, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
- University of Galway, Galway, Galway, Ireland
| | - Ashkan Shoamanesh
- Population Health Research Institute, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
- McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
| | | | | | | | | | | | - John Eikelboom
- Population Health Research Institute, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
- McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
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14
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Bisson A, Lemrini Y, Romiti GF, Proietti M, Angoulvant D, Bentounes S, El-Bouri W, Lip GYH, Fauchier L. Prediction of early death after atrial fibrillation diagnosis using a machine learning approach: A French nationwide cohort study. Am Heart J 2023; 265:191-202. [PMID: 37595659 DOI: 10.1016/j.ahj.2023.08.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/14/2023] [Accepted: 08/14/2023] [Indexed: 08/20/2023]
Abstract
AIMS Atrial fibrillation is associated with important mortality but the usual clinical risk factor based scores only modestly predict mortality. This study aimed to develop machine learning models for the prediction of death occurrence within the year following atrial fibrillation diagnosis and compare predictive ability against usual clinical risk scores. METHODS AND RESULTS We used a nationwide cohort of 2,435,541 newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation patients seen in French hospitals from 2011 to 2019. Three machine learning models were trained to predict mortality within the first year using a training set (70% of the cohort). The best model was selected to be evaluated and compared with previously published scores on the validation set (30% of the cohort). Discrimination of the best model was evaluated using the C index. Within the first year following atrial fibrillation diagnosis, 342,005 patients (14.4%) died after a period of 83 (SD 98) days (median 37 [10-129]). The best machine learning model selected was a deep neural network with a C index of 0.785 (95% CI, 0.781-0.789) on the validation set. Compared to clinical risk scores, the selected model was superior to the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED risk scores and superior to dedicated scores such as Charlson Comorbidity Index and Hospital Frailty Risk Score to predict death within the year following atrial fibrillation diagnosis (C indexes: 0.597; 0.562; 0.643; 0.626 respectively. P < .0001). CONCLUSION Machine learning algorithms predict early death after atrial fibrillation diagnosis and may help clinicians to better risk stratify atrial fibrillation patients at high risk of mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Arnaud Bisson
- Service de Cardiologie, Centre Hospitalier Régional Universitaire et Faculté de Médecine de Tours, Tours, France; EA4245, Transplantation Immunité Inflammation, Université de Tours, Tours, France; Service de Cardiologie, Centre Hospitalier Régional Universitaire d'Orléans, Orléans, France; Liverpool Centre for Cardiovascular Science at University of Liverpool, Liverpool John Moores University and Liverpool Heart & Chest Hospital, Liverpool, United Kingdom.
| | - Yassine Lemrini
- Service de Cardiologie, Centre Hospitalier Régional Universitaire et Faculté de Médecine de Tours, Tours, France
| | - Giulio Francesco Romiti
- Liverpool Centre for Cardiovascular Science at University of Liverpool, Liverpool John Moores University and Liverpool Heart & Chest Hospital, Liverpool, United Kingdom; Department of Translational and Precision Medicine, Sapienza - University of Rome, Italy
| | - Marco Proietti
- Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, University of Milan, Italy; Division of Subacute Care, IRCCS Istituti Clinici Scientifici Maugeri, Milano, Italy
| | - Denis Angoulvant
- Service de Cardiologie, Centre Hospitalier Régional Universitaire et Faculté de Médecine de Tours, Tours, France; EA4245, Transplantation Immunité Inflammation, Université de Tours, Tours, France
| | - Sidahmed Bentounes
- Service de Cardiologie, Centre Hospitalier Régional Universitaire et Faculté de Médecine de Tours, Tours, France
| | - Wahbi El-Bouri
- Liverpool Centre for Cardiovascular Science at University of Liverpool, Liverpool John Moores University and Liverpool Heart & Chest Hospital, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | - Gregory Y H Lip
- Liverpool Centre for Cardiovascular Science at University of Liverpool, Liverpool John Moores University and Liverpool Heart & Chest Hospital, Liverpool, United Kingdom; Danish Center for Health Services Research, Department of Clinical Medicine, Aalborg University, Aalborg, Denmark
| | - Laurent Fauchier
- Service de Cardiologie, Centre Hospitalier Régional Universitaire et Faculté de Médecine de Tours, Tours, France
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15
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Lim TW, Camm AJ, Virdone S, Singer DE, Bassand JP, Fonarow GC, Fox KAA, Ezekowitz M, Gersh BJ, Kayani G, Hylek EM, Kakkar AK, Mahaffey KW, Pieper KS, Peterson ED, Piccini JP. Predictors of intracranial hemorrhage in patients with atrial fibrillation treated with oral anticoagulants: Insights from the GARFIELD-AF and ORBIT-AF registries. Clin Cardiol 2023; 46:1398-1407. [PMID: 37596725 PMCID: PMC10642328 DOI: 10.1002/clc.24109] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/19/2023] [Revised: 07/14/2023] [Accepted: 07/24/2023] [Indexed: 08/20/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND An unmet need exists to reliably predict the risk of intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) treated with oral anticoagulants (OACs). HYPOTHESIS An externally validated model improves ICH risk stratification. METHODS Independent factors associated with ICH were identified by Cox proportional hazard modeling, using pooled data from the GARFIELD-AF (Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation) and ORBIT-AF (Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation) registries. A predictive model was developed and validated by bootstrap sampling and by independent data from the Danish National Patient Register. RESULTS In the combined training data set, 284 of 53 878 anticoagulated patients had ICH over a 2-year period (0.31 per 100 person-years; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.28-0.35). Independent predictors of ICH included: older age, prior stroke or transient ischemic attack, concomitant antiplatelet (AP) use, and moderate-to-severe chronic kidney disease (CKD). Vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) were associated with a significantly higher risk of ICH compared with non-VKA oral anticoagulants (NOACs) (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.61; 95% CI: 1.25-2.08; p = .0002). The ability of the model to discriminate individuals in the training set with and without ICH was fair (optimism-corrected C-statistic: 0.68; 95% CI: 0.65-0.71) and outperformed three previously published methods. Calibration between predicted and observed ICH probabilities was good in both training and validation data sets. CONCLUSIONS Age, prior ischemic events, concomitant AP therapy, and CKD were important risk factors for ICH in anticoagulated AF patients. Moreover, ICH was more frequent in patients receiving VKA compared to NOAC. The new validated model is a step toward mitigating this potentially lethal complication.
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Affiliation(s)
- Toon Wei Lim
- National Heart CentreSingaporeSingapore
- National University HospitalSingaporeSingapore
| | - Alan John Camm
- Cardiology Clinical Academic Group Molecular & Clinical Sciences InstituteSt. George's University of LondonLondonUK
| | | | - Daniel E. Singer
- Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical SchoolBostonMassachusettsUSA
| | - Jean P. Bassand
- Thrombosis Research InstituteLondonUK
- Department of CardiologyUniversity of BesançonBesançonFrance
| | | | - Keith A. A. Fox
- Department of Cardiovascular ScienceCentre for Cardiovascular Science, University of EdinburghEdinburghUK
| | - Michael Ezekowitz
- Sidney Kimmel Medical SchoolThomas Jefferson UniversityPhiladelphiaPennsylvaniaUSA
| | - Bernard J. Gersh
- Mayo Clinic College of Medicine and ScienceRochesterMinnesotaUSA
| | | | - Elaine M. Hylek
- Department of MedicineBoston University School of MedicineBostonMassachusettsUSA
| | - Ajay K. Kakkar
- Thrombosis Research InstituteLondonUK
- Department of SurgeryUniversity College LondonLondonUK
| | - Kenneth W. Mahaffey
- Stanford Center for Clinical ResearchStanford School of MedicineStanfordCaliforniaUSA
| | - Karen S. Pieper
- Thrombosis Research InstituteLondonUK
- Department of Cardiac ElectrophysiologyDuke Clinical Research InstituteDurhamNorth CarolinaUSA
| | - Eric D. Peterson
- Department of Cardiac ElectrophysiologyDuke Clinical Research InstituteDurhamNorth CarolinaUSA
- Duke University School of MedicineDurhamNorth CarolinaUSA
| | - Jonathan P. Piccini
- Department of Cardiac ElectrophysiologyDuke Clinical Research InstituteDurhamNorth CarolinaUSA
- Duke University School of MedicineDurhamNorth CarolinaUSA
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16
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Apenteng PN, Prieto-Merino D, Hee SW, Lobban TC, Caleyachetty R, Fitzmaurice DA. Optimising prediction of mortality, stroke, and major bleeding for patients with atrial fibrillation: validation of the GARFIELD-AF tool in UK primary care electronic records. Br J Gen Pract 2023; 73:e816-e824. [PMID: 37845083 PMCID: PMC10587901 DOI: 10.3399/bjgp.2023.0082] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/13/2023] [Accepted: 06/15/2023] [Indexed: 10/18/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The GARFIELD-AF tool is a novel risk tool that simultaneously assesses the risk of all-cause mortality, stroke or systemic embolism, and major bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). AIM To validate the GARFIELD-AF tool using UK primary care electronic records. DESIGN AND SETTING A retrospective cohort study using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) linked with Hospital Episode Statistics data and Office for National Statistics mortality data. METHOD Discrimination was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) and calibration was evaluated using calibration-in-the-large regression and calibration plots. RESULTS A total of 486 818 patients aged ≥18 years with incident diagnosis of non-valvular AF between 2 January 1998 and 31 July 2020 were included; 50.6% (n = 246 425/486 818) received anticoagulation at diagnosis The GARFIELD- AF models outperformed the CHA2DS2VASc and HAS-BLED scores in discrimination ability of death, stroke, and major bleeding at all the time points. The AUC for events at 1 year for the 2017 models were: death 0.747 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.744 to 0.751) versus 0.635 (95% CI = 0.631 to 0.639) for CHA2DS2VASc; stroke 0.666 (95% CI = 0.663 to 0.669) versus 0.625 (95% CI = 0.622 to 0.628) for CHA2DS2VASc; and major bleeding 0.602 (95% CI = 0.598 to 0.606) versus 0.558 (95% CI = 0.554 to 0.562) for HAS- BLED. Calibration between predicted and Kaplan- Meier observed events was inadequate with the GARFIELD-AF models. CONCLUSION The GARFIELD-AF models were superior to the CHA2DS2VASc score for discriminating stroke and death and superior to the HAS-BLED score for discriminating major bleeding. The models consistently underpredicted the level of risk, suggesting that a recalibration is needed to optimise its use in the UK population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Patricia N Apenteng
- Institute of Applied Health Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK; Warwick Medical School, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK
| | | | - Siew Wan Hee
- Warwick Medical School, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK
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17
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Aarnink E, Zabern M, Boersma L, Glikson M. Mechanisms and Prediction of Ischemic Stroke in Atrial Fibrillation Patients. J Clin Med 2023; 12:6491. [PMID: 37892626 PMCID: PMC10607686 DOI: 10.3390/jcm12206491] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/14/2023] [Revised: 10/06/2023] [Accepted: 10/10/2023] [Indexed: 10/29/2023] Open
Abstract
Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common arrhythmia in adults worldwide and represents an important burden for patients, physicians, and healthcare systems. AF is associated with substantial mortality and morbidity, due to the disease itself and its specific complications, such as the increased risk of stroke and thromboembolic events associated with AF. The temporal relation between AF episodes and stroke is nonetheless incompletely understood. The factors associated with an increased thromboembolic risk remain unclear, as well as the stroke risk stratification. Therefore, in this review, we intend to expose the mechanisms and physiopathology leading to intracardiac thrombus formation and stroke in AF patients, together with the evidence supporting the causal hypothesis. We also expose the risk factors associated with increased risk of stroke, the current different risk stratification tools as well as future prospects for improving this risk stratification.
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Affiliation(s)
- Errol Aarnink
- Department of Cardiology, St. Antonius Hospital, 3435 CM Nieuwegein, The Netherlands
| | - Maxime Zabern
- Jesselson Integrated Heart Center, Shaare Zedek Medical Center, Jerusalem 9103102, Israel
| | - Lucas Boersma
- Department of Cardiology, St. Antonius Hospital, 3435 CM Nieuwegein, The Netherlands
- Department of Cardiology, Amsterdam University Medical Center, 1105 AZ Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Michael Glikson
- Jesselson Integrated Heart Center, Shaare Zedek Medical Center, Jerusalem 9103102, Israel
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18
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Jiang C, Li M, Hu Y, Du X, Li X, He L, Lai Y, Chen T, Li Y, Guo X, Jiang C, Tang R, Sang C, Long D, Xie G, Dong J, Ma C. Identification of atrial fibrillation phenotypes at low risk of stroke in patients with CHA2DS2-VASc ≥2: Insight from the China-AF study. Pacing Clin Electrophysiol 2023; 46:1203-1211. [PMID: 37736697 DOI: 10.1111/pace.14829] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/15/2023] [Revised: 08/07/2023] [Accepted: 09/07/2023] [Indexed: 09/23/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) are highly heterogeneous, and current risk stratification scores are only modestly good at predicting an individual's stroke risk. We aim to identify distinct AF clinical phenotypes with cluster analysis to optimize stroke prevention practices. METHODS From the prospective Chinese Atrial Fibrillation Registry cohort study, we included 4337 AF patients with CHA2 DS2 -VASc≥2 for males and 3 for females who were not treated with oral anticoagulation. We randomly split the patients into derivation and validation sets by a ratio of 7:3. In the derivation set, we used outcome-driven patient clustering with metric learning to group patients into clusters with different risk levels of ischemic stroke and systemic embolism, and identify clusters of patients with low risks. Then we tested the results in the validation set, using the clustering rules generated from the derivation set. Finally, the survival decision tree was applied as a sensitivity analysis to confirm the results. RESULTS Up to the follow-up of 1 year, 140 thromboembolic events (ischemic stroke or systemic embolism) occurred. After supervised metric learning from six variables involved in CHA2 DS2 -VASc scheme, we identified a cluster of patients (255/3035, 8.4%) at an annual thromboembolism risk of 0.8% in the derivation set. None of the patients in the low-risk cluster had prior thromboembolism, heart failure, diabetes, or age older than 70 years. After applying the regularities from metric learning on the validation set, we also identified a cluster of patients (137/1302, 10.5%) with an incident thromboembolism rate of 0.7%. Sensitivity analysis based on the survival decision tree approach selected a subgroup of patients with the same phenotypes as the metric-learning algorithm. CONCLUSIONS Cluster analysis identified a distinct clinical phenotype at low risk of stroke among high-risk [CHA2 DS2 -VASc≥2 (3 for females)] patients with AF. The use of the novel analytic approach has the potential to prevent a subset of AF patients from unnecessary anticoagulation and avoid the associated risk of major bleeding.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chao Jiang
- Department of Cardiology, Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Beijing, China
| | - Mingxiao Li
- Department of Cardiology, Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Beijing, China
| | - Yiying Hu
- Ping An Health Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Xin Du
- Department of Cardiology, Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Beijing, China
- Heart Health Research Center, Beijing, China
| | - Xiang Li
- Ping An Health Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Liu He
- Department of Cardiology, Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Beijing, China
| | - Yiwei Lai
- Department of Cardiology, Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Beijing, China
| | - Tiange Chen
- School of Public Health, Peking University Health Science Center, Beijing, China
| | - Yingxue Li
- Ping An Health Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Xueyuan Guo
- Department of Cardiology, Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Beijing, China
| | - Chenxi Jiang
- Department of Cardiology, Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Beijing, China
| | - Ribo Tang
- Department of Cardiology, Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Beijing, China
| | - Caihua Sang
- Department of Cardiology, Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Beijing, China
| | - Deyong Long
- Department of Cardiology, Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Beijing, China
| | | | - Jianzeng Dong
- Department of Cardiology, Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Beijing, China
- Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan Province, China
| | - Changsheng Ma
- Department of Cardiology, Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Beijing, China
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Chikumbanje MM, Raza S, Barham L. The Budget Impact Analysis of Adopting Direct Oral Anticoagulants for Stroke Prevention in Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation Patients in Malawi. Value Health Reg Issues 2023; 37:53-61. [PMID: 37321105 DOI: 10.1016/j.vhri.2023.04.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/05/2022] [Revised: 03/20/2023] [Accepted: 04/19/2023] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES This study aimed to estimate the budget impact of adopting direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) for stroke prevention in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation in Malawi after the inclusion of DOACs in the World Health Organization's essential medicine list. METHODS A model was developed in Microsoft Excel. An eligible population of 201 491 was adjusted with 0.05 % incidence rate and mortality rates yearly according to the treatments. The model estimated the implication of supplementing rivaroxaban or apixaban to the standard treatment mix (also the comparator), thus warfarin and aspirin. The current market share of 43% aspirin and 57% warfarin was adjusted proportionally with 10% DOAC uptake in the first year and 5% annually over the subsequent 4 years. Clinical events of stroke and major bleeding from the ROCKET-AF and ARISTOTLE trials were used because health outcome indicators affect resource utilization. The analysis was conducted solely from the Malawi Ministry of Health perspective and it considered direct costs over 5 years. The sensitivity analysis involved varying drug costs, population, and care costs from both public and private sectors. RESULTS The research suggests that despite potential savings of $6 644 141 to $6 930 812 in stroke care because of fewer stroke events, the total Ministry of Health healthcare budget (approximately $260 400 000) may increase by between $42 488 342 to $101 633 644 in 5 years because drug acquisition costs are greater than savings. CONCLUSIONS With a fixed budget and current DOACs prices, Malawi can consider using DOACs in patients at the highest risk while waiting for cheaper generic versions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mirriam M Chikumbanje
- Faculty of Life Sciences and Education, Learna Ltd in Partnership with University of South Wales, Cardiff, Wales, UK.
| | - Syed Raza
- Faculty of Life Sciences and Education, Learna Ltd in Partnership with University of South Wales, Cardiff, Wales, UK
| | - Leela Barham
- Faculty of Life Sciences and Education, Learna Ltd in Partnership with University of South Wales, Cardiff, Wales, UK
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20
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Nakayama M, Goto S, Sakano T, Goto S. Detection of the Relationship between the Multi-Dimensional Data Sets of Serially Measured Blood Pressure and the Future Risk of Death in Healthy Elderly Japanese Population. J Atheroscler Thromb 2023; 30:1002-1009. [PMID: 36273901 PMCID: PMC10406660 DOI: 10.5551/jat.63798] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/29/2022] [Accepted: 09/19/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023] Open
Abstract
AIMS Whether the multi-dimensional data of serially measured blood pressure contains information for predicting the future risk of death in elderly individuals in nursing homes is unclear. METHODS Of the elderly individuals staying in a nursing home, 19,740 and 40,055 individuals with serially measured blood pressure from day 1 to 365 (for AI-long) and 1 to 90 (for AI-short) along with the death information at day 366 to 730 and 91-365 were included. The neural network-based artificial intelligence (AI) was applied to find the relationship between BP time-series and the future risks of death in both populations. RESULTS AI-long found a significant relationship between the serially measured BP from day 1 to day 365 days and the risk of death occurring 366-730 days with c-statistics of 0.57 (95% CI: 0.51-0.63). AI-short also found a significant relationship between the serially measured BP from day 1 to day 90 and the rate of death occurring 91-365 days with c-statistics of 0.58 (95%CI: 0.52-0.63). CONCLUSION Our results suggest that neural network-based AI could find the hidden subtle relationship between multi-dimensional data of serially measured BP and the future risk of death in apparently healthy elderly Japanese individuals under nursing care.
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Affiliation(s)
- Masamitsu Nakayama
- Department of Medicine (Cardiology), Tokai University School of Medicine, Kanagawa, Japan
| | - Shinichi Goto
- Department of Medicine (Cardiology), Tokai University School of Medicine, Kanagawa, Japan
| | | | - Shinya Goto
- Department of Medicine (Cardiology), Tokai University School of Medicine, Kanagawa, Japan
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21
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Le Goff L, Demuth S, Fickl A, Muresan L. Ischemic stroke risk factors not included in the CHADS-VASC score in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation. ARQUIVOS DE NEURO-PSIQUIATRIA 2023; 81:712-719. [PMID: 37567570 PMCID: PMC10468251 DOI: 10.1055/s-0043-1771167] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/03/2022] [Accepted: 04/09/2023] [Indexed: 08/13/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND In patients with atrial fibrillation, the CHA2DS2-VASC score guides stroke prevention using anticoagulants, but it is an imperfect score. Other potential risk factors such as renal failure, the type of atrial fibrillation, active smoking, cancer, sleep apnea or systemic inflammation have less well been investigated. OBJECTIVE To assess the impact of these factors on ischemic stroke risk in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation. METHODS On a population of 248 patients (124 patients with acute ischemic stroke and 124 controls), we performed a logistic regression to assess the impact of multiple non-classic risk factors for the prediction of acute ischemic stroke. Their impact on mortality was assessed by performing a survival analysis. RESULTS A high CHA2DS2-VASc score (OR 1.75; 95% CI 1.13-2.70; p = 0.032), treatment with anticoagulants (OR 0.19; 95% CI 0.07-0.51; p < 0.001) and permanent atrial fibrillation (OR 6.31; 95% CI 2.46-16.19; p < 0.001) were independently associated with acute ischemic stroke. Renal failure and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease predicted a higher mortality. After adjusting for age, sex, the CHA2DS2-VASc score and the use of anticoagulants, the only risk factor predictive for acute ischemic stroke was the permanent type of AF (OR: 8.0 [95% CI 2.5-25.5], p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS The CHA2DS2-VASc score, the absence of anticoagulants and the permanent type of atrial fibrillation were the main predictive factors for the occurrence of acute ischemic stroke. Larger studies are necessary for conclusive results about other factors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laurine Le Goff
- “Emile Muller” Hospital, Department of Cardiology, Mulhouse, France.
| | - Stanislas Demuth
- Strasbourg University Hospital, Department of Neurology, France.
| | - Andreas Fickl
- “Emile Muller” Hospital, Department of Neurology, Mulhouse, France.
| | - Lucian Muresan
- “Emile Muller” Hospital, Department of Cardiology, Mulhouse, France.
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22
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Noubiap JJ, Thomas G, Kamtchum-Tatuene J, Middeldorp ME, Sanders P. High-risk carotid plaques and incident ischemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation in the Cardiovascular Health Study. Eur J Neurol 2023; 30:2042-2050. [PMID: 37038345 PMCID: PMC10247465 DOI: 10.1111/ene.15817] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/29/2023] [Revised: 04/01/2023] [Accepted: 04/05/2023] [Indexed: 04/12/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Whether carotid artery disease could improve stroke risk stratification tools in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) remains uncertain. This study was undertaken to investigate the risk of ischemic stroke associated with occlusive and nonocclusive carotid atherosclerotic disease in patients with AF in the prospective population-based Cardiovascular Health Study. METHODS We included participants aged ≥65 years with AF. We used multivariable Cox regression analysis to explore the risk of ischemic stroke associated with the percentage of carotid stenosis, plaque irregularity, echogenicity, and vulnerability (markedly irregular, ulcerated, or hypoechoic plaques). RESULTS A total of 1398 participants were included (55.2% female, 61.7% aged 65-74 years). The maximum carotid stenosis was <50%, 50%-99%, and 100% in 94.5%, 5%, and 0.5% of participants, respectively. High-risk plaques based on echogenicity and plaque irregularity were found in 25.6% and 8.9% of participants, respectively. After a median follow-up of 10.9 years (interquartile range = 7.5-15.6), 298 ischemic strokes were recorded. There was no difference in the incidence of ischemic stroke according to the degree of carotid artery stenosis (p = 0.44), plaque echogenicity (low vs. high risk, p = 0.68), plaque irregularity (low vs. high risk, p = 0.55), and plaque vulnerability (p = 0.86). The CHA₂DS₂-VASc score was associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.28, 95% confidence interval = 1.18-1.40, p < 0.001). Both maximum grade of stenosis and plaque vulnerability were not associated with incident ischemic stroke (all p > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS Neither the degree of carotid stenosis nor the presence of vulnerable plaques was associated with incident ischemic stroke in this cohort of individuals with AF. This suggests that carotid disease was probably not a significant contributor to ischemic stroke in this population.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Gijo Thomas
- Centre for Heart Rhythm Disorders, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia
| | - Joseph Kamtchum-Tatuene
- Neuroscience and Mental Health Institute, Faculty of Medicine and Dentistry, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada
| | - Melissa E. Middeldorp
- Centre for Heart Rhythm Disorders, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia
- Smidt Heart Institute, Cedar-Sinai Medical Centre, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | - Prashanthan Sanders
- Centre for Heart Rhythm Disorders, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia
- Department of Cardiology, Royal Adelaide Hospital, Adelaide, Australia; Department of Cardiology
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23
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Haas S, Camm JA, Harald D, Steffel J, Virdone S, Pieper K, Brodmann M, Schellong S, Misselwitz F, Kayani G, Kakkar AK. GARFIELD-AF: risk profiles, treatment patterns and 2-year outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation in Germany, Austria and Switzerland (DACH) compared to 32 countries in other regions worldwide. Clin Res Cardiol 2023; 112:759-771. [PMID: 36094573 DOI: 10.1007/s00392-022-02079-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/10/2022] [Accepted: 07/29/2022] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) is a worldwide non-interventional study of stroke prevention in patients with non-valvular AF. METHODS AND RESULTS 52,080 patients with newly diagnosed AF were prospectively enrolled from 2010 to 2016. 4121 (7.9%) of these patients were recruited in DACH [Germany (n = 3567), Austria (n = 465) and Switzerland (n = 89) combined], and 47,959 patients were from 32 countries in other regions worldwide (ORW). Hypertension was most prevalent in DACH and ORW (85.3% and 75.6%, respectively). Diabetes, hypercholesterolaemia, carotid occlusive disease and vascular disease were more prevalent in DACH patients vs ORW (27.6%, 49.4%, 5.8% and 29.0% vs 21.7%, 40.9%, 2.8% and 24.5%). The use of non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) increased more in DACH over time. Management of vitamin K antagonists was suboptimal in DACH and ORW (time in therapeutic range of INR ≥ 65% in 44.6% and 44.4% of patients or ≥ 70% in 36.9% and 36.0% of patients, respectively). Adjusted rates of cardiovascular mortality and MI/ACS were higher in DACH while non-haemorrhagic stroke/systemic embolism was lower after 2-year follow-up. CONCLUSIONS Similarities and dissimilarities in AF management and clinical outcomes are seen in DACH and ORW. The increased use of NOAC was associated with a mismatch of risk-adapted anticoagulation (over-and-undertreatment) in DACH. Suboptimal control of INR requires educational activities in both regional groups. Higher rates of cardiovascular death in DACH may reflect the higher risk profile of these patients and lower rates of non-haemorrhagic stroke could be associated with increased NOAC use.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sylvia Haas
- Formerly Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany.
| | - John A Camm
- Clinical Academic Group, Molecular and Clinical Sciences Institute, St. George's University of London, London, UK
| | - Darius Harald
- Formerly Vivantes Netzwerk Für Gesundheit, Berlin, Germany
| | - Jan Steffel
- University Hospital, Zurich and University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
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24
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Wang TF, Carrier M. Revisiting important issues in cancer and atrial fibrillation. Res Pract Thromb Haemost 2023; 7:100156. [PMID: 37255852 PMCID: PMC10225913 DOI: 10.1016/j.rpth.2023.100156] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/23/2023] [Revised: 03/24/2023] [Accepted: 03/29/2023] [Indexed: 06/01/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Tzu-Fei Wang
- Correspondence Tzu-Fei Wang, The Ottawa Hospital, General Campus, 501 Smyth Road, Box 201A, Ottawa, ON K1H 8L6, Canada. @TzufeiWang
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Myrcha P, Kozak M, Myrcha J, Ząbek M, Rocha-Neves J, Głowiński J, Hendiger W, Woźniak W, Taranta I. Clinical Characteristics and Predictors of Long-Term Prognosis of Acute Peripheral Arterial Ischemia Patients Treated Surgically. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2023; 20:3877. [PMID: 36900887 PMCID: PMC10001670 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph20053877] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/24/2023] [Revised: 02/15/2023] [Accepted: 02/20/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Acute peripheral arterial ischemia is a rapidly developing loss of perfusion, resulting in ischemic clinical manifestations. This study aimed to assess the incidence of cardiovascular mortality in patients with acute peripheral arterial ischemia and either atrial fibrillation (AF) or sinus rhythm (SR). METHODS This observational study involved patients with acute peripheral ischemia treated surgically. Patients were followed-up to assess cardiovascular mortality and its predictors. RESULTS The study group included 200 patients with acute peripheral arterial ischemia and either AF (n = 67) or SR (n = 133). No cardiovascular mortality differences between the AF and SR groups were observed. AF patients who died of cardiovascular causes had a higher prevalence of peripheral arterial disease (58.3% vs. 31.6%, p = 0.048) and hypercholesterolemia (31.2% vs. 5.3%, p = 0.028) than those who did not die of such causes. Patients with SR who died of cardiovascular causes more frequently had a GFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 (47.8% vs. 25.0%, p = 0.03) and were older than those with SR who did not die of such causes. The multivariable analysis shows that hyperlipidemia reduced the risk of cardiovascular mortality in patients with AF, whereas in patients with SR, an age of ≥75 years was the predisposing factor for such mortality. CONCLUSIONS Cardiovascular mortality of patients with acute ischemia did not differ between patients with AF and SR. Hyperlipidemia reduced the risk of cardiovascular mortality in patients with AF, whereas in patients with SR, an age of ≥75 years was a predisposing factor for such mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Piotr Myrcha
- Department of General and Vascular Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, Medical University of Warsaw, 02-091 Warsaw, Poland
- Department of General, Vascular and Oncological Surgery, Masovian Brodnowski Hospital, 03-242 Warsaw, Poland
| | - Mariusz Kozak
- Department of General and Vascular Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, Medical University of Warsaw, 02-091 Warsaw, Poland
- Department of General, Vascular and Oncological Surgery, Masovian Brodnowski Hospital, 03-242 Warsaw, Poland
| | - Jakub Myrcha
- Department of Vascular Surgery and Angiology, Bielanski Hospital, 01-809 Warsaw, Poland
| | - Mirosław Ząbek
- Department of Neurosurgery, Centre of Postgraduate Medical Education, 01-826 Warsaw, Poland
| | - João Rocha-Neves
- Department of Angiology and Vascular Surgery, Centro Hospitalar Universitário de São João, 4200-319 Porto, Portugal
- Department of Biomedicine—Unit of Anatomy, Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade do Porto, 4200-319 Porto, Portugal
| | - Jerzy Głowiński
- Department of Vascular Surgery and Transplantalogy, Medical University of Bialystok, 15-276 Bialystok, Poland
| | - Włodzimierz Hendiger
- Department of General and Vascular Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, Medical University of Warsaw, 02-091 Warsaw, Poland
| | - Witold Woźniak
- Department of General and Vascular Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, Medical University of Warsaw, 02-091 Warsaw, Poland
- Department of General, Vascular and Oncological Surgery, Masovian Brodnowski Hospital, 03-242 Warsaw, Poland
| | - Izabela Taranta
- Department of General and Vascular Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, Medical University of Warsaw, 02-091 Warsaw, Poland
- Department of General, Vascular and Oncological Surgery, Masovian Brodnowski Hospital, 03-242 Warsaw, Poland
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Krittayaphong R, Kanjanarutjawiwat W, Wisaratapong T, Lip GYH. Improving risk prediction for death, stroke and bleeding in Asian patients with atrial fibrillation. Eur J Clin Invest 2023; 53:e13886. [PMID: 36197442 DOI: 10.1111/eci.13886] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/24/2022] [Revised: 09/27/2022] [Accepted: 10/04/2022] [Indexed: 01/26/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The objectives of this study were to compare the GARFIELD Refitted model and CHA2 DS2 -VASc/HAS-BLED risk scores with the new model from the COOL-AF registry for all-cause death, ischaemic stroke/systemic embolism (SSE) and major bleeding in Asian patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). METHODS Patients with non-valvular AF in the nationwide COOL-AF registry were studied. Patients were enrolled from 27 hospitals in Thailand during 2014-2017. Main outcomes were all-cause mortality, SSE and major bleeding. Predictive models of the three outcomes were developed from the variables in the multivariable Cox-proportional Hazard model. Predictive values of the models were evaluated by C-statistics, calibration plots and decision curve analysis (DCA). The new COOL-AF models were compared with the GARFIELD Refitted models and CHA2 DS2 -VASc model for all-cause mortality, SSE/HAS-BLED model for major bleeding. RESULTS A total of 3405 patients were enrolled. The C-statistics for the COOL-AF models were 0.727 (0.712-0.742), 0.708 (0.693-0.724) and 0.706 (0.690-0.721) for all-cause mortality, SSE and major bleeding, respectively. Calibration plots showed good agreement between predicted probability the observed outcomes for the COOL-AF models with a calibration slope of 0.94-0.99. The predictive ability remains preserved after the internal validation with bootstraps and optimism (bias) correction. The COOL-AF predictive models tended to be superior to the GARFIELD Refitted, CHA2 DS2 -VASc and HAS-BLED models. CONCLUSION The COOL-AF predictive models for all-cause mortality, SSE and major bleeding in Asian patients with AF had a good predictive ability. The COOL-AF model for all-cause mortality was superior to the GARFIELD Refitted and CHA2 DS2 -VASc model.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rungroj Krittayaphong
- Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine Siriraj Hospital, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | | | | | - Gregory Y H Lip
- Liverpool Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Liverpool and Liverpool Heart & Chest Hospital, Liverpool, UK.,Department of Clinical Medicine, Aalborg University, Aalborg, Denmark
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Machine Learning Models Predicting Cardiovascular and Renal Outcomes and Mortality in Patients with Hyperkalemia. Nutrients 2022; 14:nu14214614. [PMID: 36364890 PMCID: PMC9658112 DOI: 10.3390/nu14214614] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/31/2022] [Revised: 10/20/2022] [Accepted: 10/22/2022] [Indexed: 11/06/2022] Open
Abstract
Hyperkalemia is associated with increased risks of mortality and adverse clinical outcomes. The treatment of hyperkalemia often leads to the discontinuation or restriction of beneficial but potassium-increasing therapy such as renin-angiotensin-aldosterone inhibitors (RAASi) and high-potassium diet including fruits and vegetables. To date, limited evidence is available for personalized risk evaluation in this heterogeneous and multifactorial pathophysiological condition. We developed risk prediction models using extreme gradient boosting (XGB), multiple logistic regression (LR), and deep neural network. Models were derived from a retrospective cohort of hyperkalemic patients with either heart failure or chronic kidney disease stage ≥3a from a Japanese nationwide database (1 April 2008−30 September 2018). Studied outcomes included all-cause death, renal replacement therapy introduction (RRT), hospitalization for heart failure (HHF), and cardiovascular events within three years after hyperkalemic episodes. The best performing model was further validated using an external cohort. A total of 24,949 adult hyperkalemic patients were selected for model derivation and internal validation. A total of 1452 deaths (16.6%), 887 RRT (10.1%), 1,345 HHF (15.4%), and 621 cardiovascular events (7.1%) were observed. XGB outperformed other models. The area under receiver operator characteristic curves (AUROCs) of XGB vs. LR (95% CIs) for death, RRT, HHF, and cardiovascular events were 0.823 (0.805−0.841) vs. 0.809 (0.791−0.828), 0.957 (0.947−0.967) vs. 0.947 (0.936−0.959), 0.863 (0.846−0.880) vs. 0.838 (0.820−0.856), and 0.809 (0.784−0.834) vs. 0.798 (0.772−0.823), respectively. In the external dataset including 86,279 patients, AUROCs (95% CIs) for XGB were: death, 0.747 (0.742−0.753); RRT, 0.888 (0.882−0.894); HHF, 0.673 (0.666−0.679); and cardiovascular events, 0.585 (0.578−0.591). Kaplan−Meier curves of the high-risk predicted group showed a statistically significant difference from that of the low-risk predicted groups for all outcomes (p < 0.005; log-rank test). These findings suggest possible use of machine learning models for real-world risk assessment as a guide for observation and/or treatment decision making that may potentially lead to improved outcomes in hyperkalemic patients while retaining the benefit of life-saving therapies.
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Stroke risk scores for prediction of mortality and hemorrhages in atrial fibrillation patients. ROMANIAN JOURNAL OF INTERNAL MEDICINE 2022; 60:182-192. [DOI: 10.2478/rjim-2022-0009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/09/2022] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Abstract
Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is an emerging epidemic worldwide, responsible for a twofold increase in mortality, independent of other risk factors. Stroke prevention is the cornerstone of AF management. However, oral anticoagulation imposes an increased risk of bleeding. Several risk scores have been developed for estimating both the thromboembolic and the bleeding risks. The aim of the study was to determine the usefulness of different stroke risk scores as predictors of mortality and hemorrhagic events in AF patients.
Methods: We retrospectively enrolled 211 AF patients hospitalized in the Cardiology Ward of our tertiary hospital. The primary endpoints were mortality and non-minor bleeding events. The mean follow-up period was 378 days for bleeding events and 5 years and 1 month for mortality. For each patient, we evaluated the following stroke risk scores: CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, R2CHADS2, ABC, ATRIA, GARFIELD.
Results: The mean age in our cohort is 66, with a slight predominance of women (52.2%). For a CHA2DS2-VASc ≥ 4 as well as for a score of 2-3, 5-year survival was worse than for patients with a score of 0–1(chi-squared=8.13; p=0.01). Similarly, all subgroups of patients with an ABC <2%, had a worse 5-year survival when compared with an ABC score of ≥2% (chi-squared=12.85; p=0.005). C-statistics show a modest predictive value for mortality, for all stroke scores except Garfield, with similar AUCs, the highest being for CHA2DS2-VASc (AUC 0.656; p=0.0001). CHA2DS2-VASc also correlates with bleeding events, having a good predictive ability (AUC 0.723; 95%CI 0.658–0.782, p=0.001), mildly superior to HAS-BLED (AUC 0.674; 95% CI 0.523–0.825; p = 0.04) and very close to Garfield-bleeding (0.765; 95%CI 0.702–0.80; p=0.0001).
Conclusions: CHA2DS2-VASc is comparable to HAS-BLED and Garfield-bleeding in predicting bleeding events in AF patients. CHA2DS2-VASc and ABC correlate directly and consistently with mortality rate. For CHA2DS2-VASc, the AUCs for our endpoints are similar to the ones for stroke prediction, highlighting the potential of extending its applicability to various outcomes.
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van der Endt VHW, Milders J, Penning de Vries BBL, Trines SA, Groenwold RHH, Dekkers OM, Trevisan M, Carrero JJ, van Diepen M, Dekker FW, de Jong Y. Comprehensive comparison of stroke risk score performance: a systematic review and meta-analysis among 6 267 728 patients with atrial fibrillation. Europace 2022; 24:1739-1753. [PMID: 35894866 PMCID: PMC9681133 DOI: 10.1093/europace/euac096] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/20/2021] [Accepted: 05/24/2022] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
Abstract
AIMS Multiple risk scores to predict ischaemic stroke (IS) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) have been developed. This study aims to systematically review these scores, their validations and updates, assess their methodological quality, and calculate pooled estimates of the predictive performance. METHODS AND RESULTS We searched PubMed and Web of Science for studies developing, validating, or updating risk scores for IS in AF patients. Methodological quality was assessed using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST). To assess discrimination, pooled c-statistics were calculated using random-effects meta-analysis. We identified 19 scores, which were validated and updated once or more in 70 and 40 studies, respectively, including 329 validations and 76 updates-nearly all on the CHA2DS2-VASc and CHADS2. Pooled c-statistics were calculated among 6 267 728 patients and 359 373 events of IS. For the CHA2DS2-VASc and CHADS2, pooled c-statistics were 0.644 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.635-0.653] and 0.658 (0.644-0.672), respectively. Better discriminatory abilities were found in the newer risk scores, with the modified-CHADS2 demonstrating the best discrimination [c-statistic 0.715 (0.674-0.754)]. Updates were found for the CHA2DS2-VASc and CHADS2 only, showing improved discrimination. Calibration was reasonable but available for only 17 studies. The PROBAST indicated a risk of methodological bias in all studies. CONCLUSION Nineteen risk scores and 76 updates are available to predict IS in patients with AF. The guideline-endorsed CHA2DS2-VASc shows inferior discriminative abilities compared with newer scores. Additional external validations and data on calibration are required before considering the newer scores in clinical practice. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION ID CRD4202161247 (PROSPERO).
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Jet Milders
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Leiden University Medical Center, PO Box 9600, 2333 ZA Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Bas B L Penning de Vries
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Leiden University Medical Center, PO Box 9600, 2333 ZA Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Serge A Trines
- Department of Cardiology, Willem Einthoven Center of Arrhythmia Research and Management, Leiden University Medical Center, 2333 ZA Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Rolf H H Groenwold
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Leiden University Medical Center, PO Box 9600, 2333 ZA Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Olaf M Dekkers
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Leiden University Medical Center, PO Box 9600, 2333 ZA Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Marco Trevisan
- Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics (MEB), Karolinska Institutet, 171 77 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Juan J Carrero
- Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics (MEB), Karolinska Institutet, 171 77 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Merel van Diepen
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Leiden University Medical Center, PO Box 9600, 2333 ZA Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Friedo W Dekker
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Leiden University Medical Center, PO Box 9600, 2333 ZA Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Ype de Jong
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Leiden University Medical Center, PO Box 9600, 2333 ZA Leiden, The Netherlands,Department of Internal Medicine, Leiden University Medical Center, 2333 ZA Leiden, The Netherlands
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Imberti JF, Mei DA, Vitolo M, Bonini N, Proietti M, Potpara T, Lip GYH, Boriani G. Comparing atrial fibrillation guidelines: Focus on stroke prevention, bleeding risk assessment and oral anticoagulant recommendations. Eur J Intern Med 2022; 101:1-7. [PMID: 35525635 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejim.2022.04.023] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/09/2022] [Accepted: 04/27/2022] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
Abstract
Clinical practice in atrial fibrillation (AF) patient management is constantly evolving. In the past 3 years, various new AF guidelines or focused updates have been published, given this rapidly evolving field. In 2019, the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association published a focused update of the 2014 guidelines. In 2020, both the European Society of Cardiology and the Canadian Cardiovascular Society released their new guidelines. Finally, the most recent guidelines were those published in 2021 by the Asian Pacific Heart Rhythm Society, which updates their 2017 version and the 2021 National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines. In the present narrative review, we compare these guidelines, emphasizing similarities and differences in the following mainstay elements of patient care: thromboembolic risk assessment, oral anticoagulants (OACs) prescription, bleeding risk evaluation, and integrated patient management. A formal evaluation of baseline thromboembolic and bleeding risks and their reassessment during follow-up is evenly recommended, although some differences in using risk stratification scores. OACs prescription is highly encouraged where appropriate, and prescription algorithms are broadly similar. The importance of an integrated and multidisciplinary approach to patient care is emerging, aiming to address several different aspects of a multifaceted disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jacopo Francesco Imberti
- Cardiology Division, Department of Biomedical, Metabolic and Neural Sciences, Policlinico di Modena, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Via del Pozzo, 71, Modena 41124, Italy; Clinical and Experimental Medicine PhD Program, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Modena, Italy; Liverpool Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Liverpool and Liverpool Heart & Chest Hospital, Liverpool, UK
| | - Davide Antonio Mei
- Cardiology Division, Department of Biomedical, Metabolic and Neural Sciences, Policlinico di Modena, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Via del Pozzo, 71, Modena 41124, Italy
| | - Marco Vitolo
- Cardiology Division, Department of Biomedical, Metabolic and Neural Sciences, Policlinico di Modena, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Via del Pozzo, 71, Modena 41124, Italy; Clinical and Experimental Medicine PhD Program, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Modena, Italy; Liverpool Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Liverpool and Liverpool Heart & Chest Hospital, Liverpool, UK
| | - Niccolò Bonini
- Cardiology Division, Department of Biomedical, Metabolic and Neural Sciences, Policlinico di Modena, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Via del Pozzo, 71, Modena 41124, Italy; Liverpool Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Liverpool and Liverpool Heart & Chest Hospital, Liverpool, UK
| | - Marco Proietti
- Liverpool Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Liverpool and Liverpool Heart & Chest Hospital, Liverpool, UK; Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, University of Milan, Milan, Italy; Geriatric Unit, IRCCS Istituti Clinici Scientifici Maugeri, Milan, Italy
| | - Tatjana Potpara
- School of Medicine, Belgrade University, dr Subotica 8, Belgrade 11000, Serbia; Cardiology Clinic, Clinical Centre of Serbia, Visegradska 26, Belgrade 11000, Serbia
| | - Gregory Y H Lip
- Liverpool Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Liverpool and Liverpool Heart & Chest Hospital, Liverpool, UK
| | - Giuseppe Boriani
- Cardiology Division, Department of Biomedical, Metabolic and Neural Sciences, Policlinico di Modena, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Via del Pozzo, 71, Modena 41124, Italy.
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Clinical Phenotypes of Atrial Fibrillation and Mortality Risk-A Cluster Analysis from the Nationwide Italian START Registry. J Pers Med 2022; 12:jpm12050785. [PMID: 35629207 PMCID: PMC9143727 DOI: 10.3390/jpm12050785] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/20/2022] [Revised: 05/06/2022] [Accepted: 05/10/2022] [Indexed: 01/27/2023] Open
Abstract
Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) still experience a high mortality rate despite optimal antithrombotic treatment. We aimed to identify clinical phenotypes of patients to stratify mortality risk in AF. Cluster analysis was performed on 5171 AF patients from the nationwide START registry. The risk of all-cause mortality in each cluster was analyzed. We identified four clusters. Cluster 1 was composed of the youngest patients, with low comorbidities; Cluster 2 of patients with low cardiovascular risk factors and high prevalence of cancer; Cluster 3 of men with diabetes and coronary disease and peripheral artery disease; Cluster 4 included the oldest patients, mainly women, with previous cerebrovascular events. During 9857 person-years of observation, 386 deaths (3.92%/year) occurred. Mortality rates increased across clusters: 0.42%/year (cluster 1, reference group), 2.12%/year (cluster 2, adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 3.306, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.204−9.077, p = 0.020), 4.41%/year (cluster 3, aHR 6.702, 95%CI 2.433−18.461, p < 0.001), and 8.71%/year (cluster 4, aHR 8.927, 95%CI 3.238−24.605, p < 0.001). We identified four clusters of AF patients with progressive mortality risk. The use of clinical phenotypes may help identify patients at a higher risk of mortality.
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De Luca L, Rubboli A, Lettino M, Tubaro M, Leonardi S, Casella G, Valente S, Rossini R, Sciahbasi A, Natale E, Trambaiolo P, Navazio A, Cipriani M, Corda M, De Nardo A, Francese GM, Napoletano C, Tizzani E, Nardi F, Roncon L, Caldarola P, Riccio C, Gabrielli D, Oliva F, Massimo Gulizia M, Colivicchi F. ANMCO position paper on antithrombotic treatment of patients with atrial fibrillation undergoing intracoronary stenting and/or acute coronary syndromes. Eur Heart J Suppl 2022; 24:C254-C271. [PMID: 35663586 PMCID: PMC9155223 DOI: 10.1093/eurheartj/suac020] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with or without acute coronary syndromes (ACS) represent a subgroup with a challenging pharmacological management. Indeed, if on the one hand, antithrombotic therapy should reduce the risk related to recurrent ischaemic events and/or stent thrombosis; on the other hand, care must be taken to avoid major bleeding events. In recent years, several trials, which overall included more than 12 000 patients, have been conducted demonstrating the safety of different therapeutic combinations of oral antiplatelet and anticoagulant agents. In the present ANMCO position paper, we propose a decision-making algorithm on antithrombotic strategies based on scientific evidence and expert consensus to be adopted in the periprocedural phase, at the time of hospital discharge, and in the long-term follow-up of patients with AF undergoing PCI with/without ACS.
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Affiliation(s)
- Leonardo De Luca
- Cardiology, Department of Cardio-Thoraco-Vascular, Azienda Ospedaliera San Camillo Forlanini, Circonvallazione Gianicolense, 87, 00152 Roma, Italy
| | - Andrea Rubboli
- Cardiology, Cardiovascular Department, Ospedale S. Maria delle Croci, Ravenna, Italy
| | - Maddalena Lettino
- Department of Cardiology, San Gerardo Hospital, ASST-Monza, Monza, Italy
| | - Marco Tubaro
- CCU, Intensive and Interventional Cardiology Department, P.O. San Filippo Neri, Roma, Italy
| | - Sergio Leonardi
- University of Pavia and IRCCS S. Matteo Foundation General Hospital, Pavia, Italy
| | - Gianni Casella
- Cardiology Department, Ospedale Maggiore, Azienda USL di Bologna, Bologna, Italy
| | - Serafina Valente
- Cardio-Thoracic Department, A.O.U. Senese, Ospedale Santa Maria alle Scotte, Siena, Italy
| | - Roberta Rossini
- Emergency Department and Critical Areas, Azienda Ospedaliera Santa Croce e Carle, Cuneo, Italy
| | | | - Enrico Natale
- Cardiology, Department of Cardio-Thoraco-Vascular, Azienda Ospedaliera San Camillo Forlanini, Circonvallazione Gianicolense, 87, 00152 Roma, Italy
| | - Paolo Trambaiolo
- Cardiology Department, Ospedale Sandro Pertini, ASL RM2, Roma, Italy
| | - Alessandro Navazio
- Hospital Cardiology Department, Arcispedale Santa Maria Nuova, IRCCS, Reggio Emilia, Italy
| | - Manlio Cipriani
- Cardiology 2-Heart Failure and Transplants, Dipartimento Cardiotoracovascolare “A. De Gasperis”, ASST Grande Ospedale Metropolitano Niguarda, Milano, Italy
| | - Marco Corda
- Cardiology Department, Azienda Ospedaliera G. Brotzu, Cagliari, Italy
| | - Alfredo De Nardo
- Cardiology-ICU Department, Ospedale Civile “G. Jazzolino”, Vibo Valentia, Italy
| | - Giuseppina Maura Francese
- Cardiology Department, Azienda di Rilievo Nazionale e Alta Specializzazione “Garibaldi”, Catania, Italy
| | - Cosimo Napoletano
- Cardiology-ICU Department—Cath Lab, Presidio Ospedaliero “G. Mazzini”, Teramo, Italy
| | | | - Federico Nardi
- Cardiology Department, Ospedale Santo Spirito, Casale Monferrato (AL), Italy
| | - Loris Roncon
- Cardiology Department, Ospedale Santa Maria della Misericordia, Rovigo, Italy
| | | | - Carmine Riccio
- Follow-up of the Post-Acute Patient, Cardio-Vascular Department, AORN Sant'Anna and San Sebastiano, Caserta, Italy
| | - Domenico Gabrielli
- Cardiology, Department of Cardio-Thoraco-Vascular, Azienda Ospedaliera San Camillo Forlanini, Circonvallazione Gianicolense, 87, 00152 Roma, Italy
| | - Fabrizio Oliva
- Cardiology 2-Heart Failure and Transplants, Dipartimento Cardiotoracovascolare “A. De Gasperis”, ASST Grande Ospedale Metropolitano Niguarda, Milano, Italy
| | | | - Furio Colivicchi
- Clinical and Rehabilitation Cardiology Department, Presidio Ospedaliero San Filippo Neri, ASL Roma 1, Roma, Italy
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van Husen G, Virdone S, Pieper K, Kayani G, Fox KAA. Universal Clinician Device for improving risk prediction and management of patients with atrial fibrillation: an assumed benefit analysis. EUROPEAN HEART JOURNAL. DIGITAL HEALTH 2022; 3:181-194. [PMID: 36713019 PMCID: PMC9707904 DOI: 10.1093/ehjdh/ztac011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/13/2021] [Revised: 02/23/2022] [Accepted: 03/01/2022] [Indexed: 02/01/2023]
Abstract
Aim Atrial fibrillation (AF) management guidelines advise using risk tools to optimize AF treatment. This study aims to develop a dynamic and clinically applicable digital device to assess stroke and bleeding risk, and to facilitate outcome improvements in AF patients. The device will provide tailored treatment recommendations according to easily attainable individual patient data. Methods and Results This Universal Clinician Device (UCD) was created using the GARFIELD-AF registry using a split sample approach. The GARFIELD-AF risk tool was adapted with two modifications. First, predictors with ≥1000 missing data points were separated, allowing expected risks estimation. Second, recommendations for modifiable risk factors and associated 2-year outcome estimates were incorporated. Outcomes of interest were all-cause mortality, non-haemorrhagic stroke/systemic embolism (SE), and major bleeding. All patients were randomized to a derivation (n = 34853) and validation cohort (n = 17165). In the derivation cohort, predictors were identified using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression. Cox models were fitted with the selected parameters. The UCD demonstrated superior predictive power compared with CHA2DS2VASc for all-cause mortality [0.75(0.75-0.76) vs. 0.71(0.70-0.72)] and non-haemorrhagic stroke/SE [0.68(0.66-0.70) vs. 0.65(0.63-0.67)], and with HAS-BLED for major bleeding [0.69(0.67-0.71) vs. 0.64(0.62-0.65)]. Universal Clinician Device recommendations reduced all-cause mortality (8.45-5.42%) and non-haemorrhagic stroke/SE (2.58-1.50%). Patients with concomitant diabetes and chronic kidney disease benefitted further, reducing mortality risk from 13.15% to 8.67%. One-third of patients with a CHA2DS2VASc score of >1 had the lowest risk of stroke. Conclusion The UCD simultaneously predicts mortality, stroke, and bleeding risk in patients using easily attainable individual clinical data and guideline-based optimized treatment plans. Clinical Trial Registration URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF: NCT01090362.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Saverio Virdone
- Department of Statistics, The Thrombosis Research Institute, London, UK
| | - Karen Pieper
- Department of Statistics, The Thrombosis Research Institute, London, UK
| | - Gloria Kayani
- Department of Statistics, The Thrombosis Research Institute, London, UK
| | - Keith A A Fox
- Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
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Dziewięcka E, Winiarczyk M, Wiśniowska-Śmiałek S, Karabinowska-Małocha A, Gliniak M, Robak J, Kaciczak M, Leszek P, Celińska-Spodar M, Dziewięcki M, Rubiś P. Clinical Utility and Validation of the Krakow DCM Risk Score—A Prognostic Model Dedicated to Dilated Cardiomyopathy. J Pers Med 2022; 12:jpm12020236. [PMID: 35207723 PMCID: PMC8879244 DOI: 10.3390/jpm12020236] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/05/2021] [Revised: 12/30/2021] [Accepted: 01/27/2022] [Indexed: 12/28/2022] Open
Abstract
Background: One of the most common causes of heart failure is dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM). In DCM, the mortality risk is high and reaches approximately 20% in 5 years. A patient’s prognosis should be established for appropriate HF management. However, so far, no validated tools have been available for the DCM population. Methods: The study population consisted of 735 DCM patients: 406 from the derivation cohort (previously described) and 329 from the validation cohort (from 2009 to 2020, with outcome data after a mean of 42 months). For each DCM patient, the individual mortality risk was calculated based on the Krakow DCM Risk Score. Results: During follow-up, 49 (15%) patients of the validation cohort died. They had shown significantly higher calculated 1-to-5-year mortality risks. The Krakow DCM Risk Score yielded good discrimination in terms of overall mortality risk, with an AUC of 0.704–0.765. Based on a 2-year mortality risk, patients were divided into non-high (≤6%) and high (>6%) mortality risk groups. The observed mortality rates were 8.3% (n = 44) vs. 42.6% (n = 75), respectively (HR 3.37; 95%CI 1.88–6.05; p < 0.0001). Conclusions: The Krakow DCM Risk Score was found to have good predictive accuracy. The 2-year mortality risk > 6% has good discrimination for the identification of high-risk patients and can be applied in everyday practice.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ewa Dziewięcka
- Department of Cardiac and Vascular Diseases, Jagiellonian University Collegium Medicum, John Paul II Hospital, 31-202 Krakow, Poland; (S.W.-Ś); (A.K.-M.)
- Correspondence: (E.D.); (P.R.); Tel.: +48-126142287 (E.D.)
| | - Mateusz Winiarczyk
- Students’ Scientific Group at Department of Cardiac and Vascular Diseases, Jagiellonian University Collegium Medicum, John Paul II Hospital, 31-008 Krakow, Poland; (M.W.); (M.G.); (J.R.); (M.K.)
| | - Sylwia Wiśniowska-Śmiałek
- Department of Cardiac and Vascular Diseases, Jagiellonian University Collegium Medicum, John Paul II Hospital, 31-202 Krakow, Poland; (S.W.-Ś); (A.K.-M.)
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery and Transplantology, Jagiellonian University Collegium Medicum, John Paul II Hospital, 31-008 Krakow, Poland
| | - Aleksandra Karabinowska-Małocha
- Department of Cardiac and Vascular Diseases, Jagiellonian University Collegium Medicum, John Paul II Hospital, 31-202 Krakow, Poland; (S.W.-Ś); (A.K.-M.)
| | - Matylda Gliniak
- Students’ Scientific Group at Department of Cardiac and Vascular Diseases, Jagiellonian University Collegium Medicum, John Paul II Hospital, 31-008 Krakow, Poland; (M.W.); (M.G.); (J.R.); (M.K.)
| | - Jan Robak
- Students’ Scientific Group at Department of Cardiac and Vascular Diseases, Jagiellonian University Collegium Medicum, John Paul II Hospital, 31-008 Krakow, Poland; (M.W.); (M.G.); (J.R.); (M.K.)
| | - Monika Kaciczak
- Students’ Scientific Group at Department of Cardiac and Vascular Diseases, Jagiellonian University Collegium Medicum, John Paul II Hospital, 31-008 Krakow, Poland; (M.W.); (M.G.); (J.R.); (M.K.)
| | - Przemysław Leszek
- Department of Heart Failure and Transplantation, The Cardinal Stefan Wyszyński Institute of Cardiology, 04-628 Warsaw, Poland;
| | - Małgorzata Celińska-Spodar
- Department of Anaesthesiology and Intensive Care, The National Institute of Cardiology, 04-628 Warsaw, Poland;
| | - Marcin Dziewięcki
- College of Economics and Computer Science (WSEI), 31-150 Krakow, Poland;
| | - Paweł Rubiś
- Department of Cardiac and Vascular Diseases, Jagiellonian University Collegium Medicum, John Paul II Hospital, 31-202 Krakow, Poland; (S.W.-Ś); (A.K.-M.)
- Correspondence: (E.D.); (P.R.); Tel.: +48-126142287 (E.D.)
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Volgman AS, Nair G, Lyubarova R, Merchant FM, Mason P, Curtis AB, Wenger NK, Aggarwal NT, Kirkpatrick JN, Benjamin EJ. Management of Atrial Fibrillation in Patients 75 Years and Older: JACC State-of-the-Art Review. J Am Coll Cardiol 2022; 79:166-179. [PMID: 35027110 DOI: 10.1016/j.jacc.2021.10.037] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/21/2021] [Accepted: 10/18/2021] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
The prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) is increasing as the population ages. AF treatment-related complications also increase markedly in older adults (defined as ≥75 years of age for this review). The older AF population has a high risk of stroke, bleeding, and death. Syncope and fall-related injuries are the most common reasons for nonprescription of oral anticoagulation (OAC), and are more common in older adults when OACs are used with antiarrhythmic drugs. Digoxin may be useful for rate control, but associations with increased mortality limit its use. Beyond rate and rhythm control considerations, stroke prophylaxis is critical to AF management, and the benefits of direct OACs, compared with warfarin, extend to older adults. Invasive procedures such as AF catheter ablation, pacemaker implantation/atrioventricular junction ablation, and left atrial appendage occlusion may be useful in appropriately selected cases. However, older adults have generally been under-represented in clinical trials.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Gatha Nair
- Division of Cardiology, Rush University Medical Center, Chicago, Illinois, USA
| | - Radmila Lyubarova
- Division of Cardiology, Albany Medical Center, Albany, New York, USA
| | - Faisal M Merchant
- Department of Medicine, Section of Cardiology, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - Pamela Mason
- Department of Cardiology, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, USA
| | - Anne B Curtis
- Jacobs School of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, New York, USA
| | - Nanette K Wenger
- Department of Medicine, Section of Cardiology, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | - Neelum T Aggarwal
- Departments of Neurological Sciences, Rush Alzheimer's Disease Center, Rush University Medical Center, Chicago, Illinois, USA
| | | | - Emelia J Benjamin
- Boston Medical Center, and Boston University School of Medicine and School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
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Fox KAA, Virdone S, Bassand JP, Camm AJ, Goto S, Goldhaber SZ, Haas S, Kayani G, Koretsune Y, Misselwitz F, Oh S, Piccini JP, Parkhomenko A, Sawhney JPS, Stepinska J, Turpie AGG, Verheugt FWA, Kakkar AK. Do baseline characteristics and treatments account for geographical disparities in the outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation? The prospective GARFIELD-AF registry. BMJ Open 2022; 12:e049933. [PMID: 34996784 PMCID: PMC8744109 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-049933] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/04/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE In patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation (AF), do baseline risk factors and stroke prevention strategies account for the geographically diverse outcomes. DESIGN Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation is a prospective multinational non-interventional registry of patients with newly diagnosed AF (n=52 018 patients). SETTING Investigator sites (n=1317) were representative of the care settings/locations in each of the 35 participating countries. Treatment decisions were all determined by the local responsible clinicians. PARTICIPANTS The patients (18 years and over) with newly diagnosed AF had at least 1 investigator-determined stroke risk factor and patients were not required to meet specific thresholds of risk score for anticoagulant treatment. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Observed 1-year event rates and risk-standardised rates were derived. RESULTS Rates of death, non-haemorrhagic stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding varied more than three-to-four fold across countries even after adjustment for baseline factors and antithrombotic treatments. Rates of anticoagulation and antithrombotic treatment varied widely. Patients from countries with the highest rates of cardiovascular mortality and stroke were among the least likely to receive oral anticoagulants. Beyond anticoagulant treatment, variations in the treatment of comorbidities and lifestyle factors may have contributed to the variations in outcomes. Countries with the lowest healthcare Access and Quality indices (India, Ukraine, Argentina, Brazil) had the highest risk-standardised mortality. CONCLUSION The variability in outcomes across countries for patients with newly diagnosed AF is not accounted for by baseline characteristics and antithrombotic treatments. Residual mortality rates were correlated with Healthcare Access and Quality indices. The findings suggest the management of patients with AF needs to not only address guideline indicated and sustained anticoagulation, but also the treatment of comorbidities and lifestyle factors. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER NCT01090362.
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Affiliation(s)
- Keith A A Fox
- Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh Division of Clinical and Surgical Sciences, Edinburgh, UK
| | | | - Jean-Pierre Bassand
- Thrombosis Research Institute, London, UK
- Department of Cardiology, University of Besançon, Besancon, France
| | - A John Camm
- Cardiology Clinical Academic Group Molecular & Clinical Sciences Research Institute, St George's University of London, London, UK
| | - Shinya Goto
- Department of Medicine (Cardiology), Tokai University School of Medicine Graduate School of Medicine, Isehara, Japan
| | - Samuel Z Goldhaber
- Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital Department of Medicine, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Sylvia Haas
- Department of Medicine, Formerly Technical University of Munich, Munchen, Germany
| | | | | | | | - Seil Oh
- Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul National University Hospital, Jongno-gu, Korea (the Republic of)
| | | | - Alex Parkhomenko
- National Scientific Center M D Strazhesko Institute of Cardiology, The National Academy of Medical Sciences of Ukraine, Kiiv, Ukraine
| | | | - Janina Stepinska
- Institute of Cardiology, Intensive Cardiac therapy clinic, Warsaw, Poland
| | | | - Freek W A Verheugt
- Department of Cardiology, Onze Lieve Vrouwe Gasthuis (OLVG), Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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de Vries TI, Stam‐Slob MC, Peters RJG, van der Graaf Y, Westerink J, Visseren FLJ. Impact of a Patient's Baseline Risk on the Relative Benefit and Harm of a Preventive Treatment Strategy: Applying Trial Results in Clinical Decision Making. J Am Heart Assoc 2022; 11:e017605. [PMID: 34935407 PMCID: PMC9075204 DOI: 10.1161/jaha.120.017605] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/14/2020] [Revised: 06/11/2021] [Accepted: 06/24/2021] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
Abstract
Background For translating an overall trial result into an individual patient's expected absolute treatment effect, differences in relative treatment effect between patients need to be taken into account. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether relative treatment effects of medication in 2 large contemporary trials are influenced by multivariable baseline risk of an individual patient. Methods and Results In 9361 patients from SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial), risk of major adverse cardiovascular events was assessed using a newly derived risk model. In 18 133 patients from the RE-LY (Randomized Evaluation of Long-Term Anticoagulant Therapy) trial, risk of stroke or systemic embolism and major bleeding was assessed using the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the Field-Atrial Fibrillation risk model. Heterogeneity of trial treatment effect was assessed using Cox models of trial allocation, model linear predictor, and their interaction. There was no significant interaction between baseline risk and relative treatment effect from intensive blood pressure lowering in SPRINT (P=0.92) or from dabigatran compared with warfarin for stroke or systemic embolism in the RE-LY trial (P=0.71). There was significant interaction between baseline risk and treatment effect from dabigatran versus warfarin in the RE-LY trial (P<0.001) for major bleeding. Quartile-specific hazard ratios for bleeding ranged from 0.40 (95% CI, 0.26-0.61) to 1.04 (95% CI, 0.83-1.03) for dabigatran, 110 mg, and from 0.61 (95% CI, 0.42-0.88) to 1.20 (95% CI, 0.97-1.50) for dabigatran, 150 mg, compared with warfarin. Conclusions Effect modification of relative treatment effect by individual baseline event risk should be assessed systematically in randomized clinical trials using multivariate risk prediction, not only in terms of treatment efficacy but also for important treatment harms, as a prespecified analysis. Registration URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01206062.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tamar I. de Vries
- Department of Vascular MedicineUniversity Medical Center UtrechtUtrechtthe Netherlands
| | - Manon C. Stam‐Slob
- Department of Vascular MedicineUniversity Medical Center UtrechtUtrechtthe Netherlands
| | - Ron J. G. Peters
- Department of CardiologyAmsterdam University Medical CenterAcademic Medical Center/University of AmsterdamAmsterdamthe Netherlands
| | | | - Jan Westerink
- Department of Vascular MedicineUniversity Medical Center UtrechtUtrechtthe Netherlands
| | - Frank L. J. Visseren
- Department of Vascular MedicineUniversity Medical Center UtrechtUtrechtthe Netherlands
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Pope MK, Atar D, Svilaas A, Hole T, Nielsen JD, Hintze U, Crisby M, Raatikainen P, Airaksinen KEJ, Virdone S, Pieper K, Kayani G, Le Heuzey JY, Steffel J, Stepinska J, Bassand JP, Camm AJ. Risk profile, antithrombotic treatment and clinical outcomes of patients in Nordic countries with atrial fibrillation - results from the GARFIELD-AF registry. Ann Med 2021; 53:485-494. [PMID: 33818226 PMCID: PMC8023647 DOI: 10.1080/07853890.2021.1893897] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/14/2020] [Accepted: 02/16/2021] [Indexed: 10/27/2022] Open
Abstract
AIMS The objective was to evaluate the clinical characteristics, management and two-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation at risk for stroke in Nordic countries. METHODS We examined the baseline characteristics, antithrombotic treatment, and two-year clinical outcomes of patients from four Nordic countries. RESULTS A total of 52,080 patients were enrolled in the GARFIELD-AF. Out of 29,908 European patients, 2,396 were recruited from Nordic countries. The use of oral anticoagulants, alone or in combination with antiplatelet (AP), was higher in Nordic patients in all CHA2DS2-VASc categories: 0-1 (72.8% vs 60.3%), 2-3 (78.7% vs 72.9%) and ≥4 (79.2% vs 74.1%). In Nordic patients, NOAC ± AP was more frequently prescribed (32.0% vs 27.7%) and AP monotherapy was less often prescribed (10.4% vs 18.2%) when compared with Non-Nordic European patients. The rates (per 100 patient years) of all-cause mortality and non-haemorrhagic stroke/systemic embolism (SE) were similar in Nordic and Non-Nordic European patients [3.63 (3.11-4.23) vs 4.08 (3.91-4.26), p value = .147] and [0.98 (0.73-1.32) vs 1.02 (0.93-1.11), p value = .819], while major bleeding was significantly higher [1.66 (1.32-2.09) vs 1.01 (0.93-1.10), p value < .001]. CONCLUSION Nordic patients had significantly higher major bleeding than Non-Nordic-European patients. In contrast, rates of all-cause mortality and non-haemorrhagic stroke/SE were comparable. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION Unique identifier: NCT01090362. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. KEY MESSAGE Nordic countries had significantly higher major bleeding than Non-Nordic-European countries. Rates of mortality and non-haemorrhagic stroke/SE were similar .
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Affiliation(s)
- Marita Knudsen Pope
- Institute of Clinical Medicine, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
- Hamar Hospital, Innlandet Hospital Trust, Hamar, Norway
| | - Dan Atar
- Institute of Clinical Medicine, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
- Department of Cardiology, Oslo University Hospital, Ullevål, Oslo, Norway
| | - Arne Svilaas
- Nymoen Medical Centre, Kongsberg, Norway
- Lipid Clinic, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Norway
| | - Torstein Hole
- Clinic of Medicine and Rehabilitation, More and Romsdal Hospital Trust, Alesund, Norway
- Department of Circulation and Medical Imaging, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, NTNU – Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Jørn Dalsgaard Nielsen
- Department of Cardiology, Copenhagen University Hospital, Copenhagen University, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Ulrik Hintze
- Department of Cardiology, Hospital of South West Jutland, Esbjerg, University of Southern Denmark, Denmark
| | - Milita Crisby
- Department of Neurobiology, Care Science and Society, Karolinska University Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Pekka Raatikainen
- Department of Cardiology, Heart and Lung Center, Helsinki University Hospital, Tampere, Finland
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Jan Steffel
- Division of Electrophysiology and Pacing, Department of Cardiology, University Heart Center Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Janina Stepinska
- Institute of Cardiology, Intensive Cardiac Therapy Clinic, Warsaw, Poland
| | - Jean-Pierre Bassand
- Thrombosis Research Institute, London, UK
- University of Besançon, Besancon, France
| | - A. John Camm
- Cardiology Clinical Academic Group Molecular & Clinical Sciences Research Institute, St. George’s University of London, London, UK
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Bedford J, Drikite L, Corbett M, Doidge J, Ferrando-Vivas P, Johnson A, Rajappan K, Mouncey P, Harrison D, Young D, Rowan K, Watkinson P. Pharmacological and non-pharmacological treatments and outcomes for new-onset atrial fibrillation in ICU patients: the CAFE scoping review and database analyses. Health Technol Assess 2021; 25:1-174. [PMID: 34847987 DOI: 10.3310/hta25710] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND New-onset atrial fibrillation occurs in around 10% of adults treated in an intensive care unit. New-onset atrial fibrillation may lead to cardiovascular instability and thromboembolism, and has been independently associated with increased length of hospital stay and mortality. The long-term consequences are unclear. Current practice guidance is based on patients outside the intensive care unit; however, new-onset atrial fibrillation that develops while in an intensive care unit differs in its causes and the risks and clinical effectiveness of treatments. The lack of evidence on new-onset atrial fibrillation treatment or long-term outcomes in intensive care units means that practice varies. Identifying optimal treatment strategies and defining long-term outcomes are critical to improving care. OBJECTIVES In patients treated in an intensive care unit, the objectives were to (1) evaluate existing evidence for the clinical effectiveness and safety of pharmacological and non-pharmacological new-onset atrial fibrillation treatments, (2) compare the use and clinical effectiveness of pharmacological and non-pharmacological new-onset atrial fibrillation treatments, and (3) determine outcomes associated with new-onset atrial fibrillation. METHODS We undertook a scoping review that included studies of interventions for treatment or prevention of new-onset atrial fibrillation involving adults in general intensive care units. To investigate the long-term outcomes associated with new-onset atrial fibrillation, we carried out a retrospective cohort study using English national intensive care audit data linked to national hospital episode and outcome data. To analyse the clinical effectiveness of different new-onset atrial fibrillation treatments, we undertook a retrospective cohort study of two large intensive care unit databases in the USA and the UK. RESULTS Existing evidence was generally of low quality, with limited data suggesting that beta-blockers might be more effective than amiodarone for converting new-onset atrial fibrillation to sinus rhythm and for reducing mortality. Using linked audit data, we showed that patients developing new-onset atrial fibrillation have more comorbidities than those who do not. After controlling for these differences, patients with new-onset atrial fibrillation had substantially higher mortality in hospital and during the first 90 days after discharge (adjusted odds ratio 2.32, 95% confidence interval 2.16 to 2.48; adjusted hazard ratio 1.46, 95% confidence interval 1.26 to 1.70, respectively), and higher rates of subsequent hospitalisation with atrial fibrillation, stroke and heart failure (adjusted cause-specific hazard ratio 5.86, 95% confidence interval 5.33 to 6.44; adjusted cause-specific hazard ratio 1.47, 95% confidence interval 1.12 to 1.93; and adjusted cause-specific hazard ratio 1.28, 95% confidence interval 1.14 to 1.44, respectively), than patients who did not have new-onset atrial fibrillation. From intensive care unit data, we found that new-onset atrial fibrillation occurred in 952 out of 8367 (11.4%) UK and 1065 out of 18,559 (5.7%) US intensive care unit patients in our study. The median time to onset of new-onset atrial fibrillation in patients who received treatment was 40 hours, with a median duration of 14.4 hours. The clinical characteristics of patients developing new-onset atrial fibrillation were similar in both databases. New-onset atrial fibrillation was associated with significant average reductions in systolic blood pressure of 5 mmHg, despite significant increases in vasoactive medication (vasoactive-inotropic score increase of 2.3; p < 0.001). After adjustment, intravenous beta-blockers were not more effective than amiodarone in achieving rate control (adjusted hazard ratio 1.14, 95% confidence interval 0.91 to 1.44) or rhythm control (adjusted hazard ratio 0.86, 95% confidence interval 0.67 to 1.11). Digoxin therapy was associated with a lower probability of achieving rate control (adjusted hazard ratio 0.52, 95% confidence interval 0.32 to 0.86) and calcium channel blocker therapy was associated with a lower probability of achieving rhythm control (adjusted hazard ratio 0.56, 95% confidence interval 0.39 to 0.79) than amiodarone. Findings were consistent across both the combined and the individual database analyses. CONCLUSIONS Existing evidence for new-onset atrial fibrillation management in intensive care unit patients is limited. New-onset atrial fibrillation in these patients is common and is associated with significant short- and long-term complications. Beta-blockers and amiodarone appear to be similarly effective in achieving cardiovascular control, but digoxin and calcium channel blockers appear to be inferior. FUTURE WORK Our findings suggest that a randomised controlled trial of amiodarone and beta-blockers for management of new-onset atrial fibrillation in critically ill patients should be undertaken. Studies should also be undertaken to provide evidence for or against anticoagulation for patients who develop new-onset atrial fibrillation in intensive care units. Finally, given that readmission with heart failure and thromboembolism increases following an episode of new-onset atrial fibrillation while in an intensive care unit, a prospective cohort study to demonstrate the incidence of atrial fibrillation and/or left ventricular dysfunction at hospital discharge and at 3 months following the development of new-onset atrial fibrillation should be undertaken. TRIAL REGISTRATION Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN13252515. FUNDING This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 71. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jonathan Bedford
- Kadoorie Centre for Critical Care Research and Education, Nuffield Department of Clinical Neurosciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Laura Drikite
- Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre, London, UK
| | - Mark Corbett
- Centre for Reviews and Dissemination, University of York, York, UK
| | - James Doidge
- Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre, London, UK
| | | | - Alistair Johnson
- Institute for Medical Engineering & Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Kim Rajappan
- Department of Cardiology, Oxford University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Oxford, UK
| | - Paul Mouncey
- Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre, London, UK
| | - David Harrison
- Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre, London, UK
| | - Duncan Young
- Kadoorie Centre for Critical Care Research and Education, Nuffield Department of Clinical Neurosciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Kathryn Rowan
- Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre, London, UK
| | - Peter Watkinson
- Kadoorie Centre for Critical Care Research and Education, Nuffield Department of Clinical Neurosciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- Adult Intensive Care Unit, Oxford University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Oxford, UK
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Pope MK, Hall TS, Schirripa V, Radic P, Virdone S, Pieper KS, Le Heuzey JY, Jansky P, Fitzmaurice DA, Cappato R, Atar D, Camm AJ, Kakkar AK. Cardioversion in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation: observational study using prospectively collected registry data. BMJ 2021; 375:e066450. [PMID: 34706884 PMCID: PMC8548918 DOI: 10.1136/bmj-2021-066450] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/19/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To investigate the clinical outcomes of patients who underwent cardioversion compared with those who did not have cardioverson in a large dataset of patients with recent onset non-valvular atrial fibrillation. DESIGN Observational study using prospectively collected registry data (Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-AF-GARFIELD-AF). SETTING 1317 participating sites in 35 countries. PARTICIPANTS 52 057 patients aged 18 years and older with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation (up to six weeks' duration) and at least one investigator determined stroke risk factor. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Comparisons were made between patients who received cardioversion and those who had no cardioversion at baseline, and between patients who received direct current cardioversion and those who had pharmacological cardioversion. Overlap propensity weighting with Cox proportional hazards models was used to evaluate the effect of cardioversion on clinical endpoints (all cause mortality, non-haemorrhagic stroke or systemic embolism, and major bleeding), adjusting for baseline risk and patient selection. RESULTS 44 201 patients were included in the analysis comparing cardioversion and no cardioversion, and of these, 6595 (14.9%) underwent cardioversion at baseline. The propensity score weighted hazard ratio for all cause mortality in the cardioversion group was 0.74 (95% confidence interval 0.63 to 0.86) from baseline to one year follow-up and 0.77 (0.64 to 0.93) from one year to two year follow-up. Of the 6595 patients who had cardioversion at baseline, 299 had a follow-up cardioversion more than 48 days after enrolment. 7175 patients were assessed in the analysis comparing type of cardioversion: 2427 (33.8%) received pharmacological cardioversion and 4748 (66.2%) had direct current cardioversion. During one year follow-up, event rates (per 100 patient years) for all cause mortality in patients who received direct current and pharmacological cardioversion were 1.36 (1.13 to 1.64) and 1.70 (1.35 to 2.14), respectively. CONCLUSION In this large dataset of patients with recent onset non-valvular atrial fibrillation, a small proportion were treated with cardioversion. Direct current cardioversion was performed twice as often as pharmacological cardioversion, and there appeared to be no major difference in outcome events for these two cardioversion modalities. For the overall cardioversion group, after adjustments for confounders, a significantly lower risk of mortality was found in patients who received early cardioversion compared with those who did not receive early cardioversion. STUDY REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01090362.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marita Knudsen Pope
- Institute of Clinical Medicine, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
- Hamar Hospital, Innlandet Hospital Trust, Hamar, Norway
| | - Trygve S Hall
- Department of Cardiology, Oslo University Hospital, Ullevål, Oslo, Norway
| | | | - Petra Radic
- School of Medicine, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia
| | | | | | - Jean-Yves Le Heuzey
- Department of Cardiology, Georges Pompidou Hospital, René Descartes University, Paris, France
| | - Petr Jansky
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Motol University Hospital, Prague, Czech Republic
| | | | - Riccardo Cappato
- Arrhythmia & Electrophysiology Centre, IRCCS MultiMedica Group, Sesto San Giovanni, Milan, Italy
| | - Dan Atar
- Institute of Clinical Medicine, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
- Department of Cardiology, Oslo University Hospital, Ullevål, Oslo, Norway
| | - A John Camm
- Cardiology Clinical Academic Group Molecular & Clinical Sciences Research Institute, St George's University of London, London, UK
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Lip GYH, Gue Y, Zhang J, Chao TF, Calkins H, Potpara T. Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation. Trends Cardiovasc Med 2021; 32:501-510. [PMID: 34619337 DOI: 10.1016/j.tcm.2021.10.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/26/2021] [Revised: 09/30/2021] [Accepted: 10/01/2021] [Indexed: 10/20/2022]
Abstract
Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the commonest sustained cardiac rhythm disorder associated with an increased risk of stroke and systemic embolic events. The prevention of stroke using oral anticoagulants has been a pivotal component of AF management. The purpose of this review is to summarize recent advances in the treatment and prevention of stroke in AF over the last 5 years. We performed a comprehensive structured literature search using MEDLINE for publications from 11th March 2015 through to 31st December 2020. We focused mainly on primarily published research articles and systematic reviews including updates in different international guidelines. We found that improved awareness and detection of AF and use of clinical risk stratification are central to the identification of patients at risk of stroke who would benefit from oral anticoagulation. The recommendation of non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants over warfarin in both efficacy and safety perspective is represented in all international guidelines. Beyond stroke prevention, there is a move to more holistic or integrated care management of AF, which has been shown to improve outcomes. We conclude that stroke prevention remains a dominant part of the management of patients with AF. Not all stroke risk factors carry equal weight, and many require additional scrutiny (e.g. severity of CAD, type of diabetes, duration of hypertension). The utilization of clinical risk scores to help decision-making should take into account that these scores are mere simplification tools to aid decision-making and the additional clinical benefit with more complex risk scores and addition of biomarkers is limited. Also, stroke and bleeding risks are dynamic and require regular review. Instead of arbitrarily categorizing patients into (artificial) low, moderate, and high stroke risk strata, anticoagulation should be offered to all patients with AF unless they are low risk with no risk factors for stroke. Stroke prevention is also part of the proactive, integrated care approach to holistic management of patients with AF, which can be simplified in the ABC (Atrial fibrillation Better Care) pathway: 'A' Avoid stroke/Anticoagulation; 'B' Better symptom management emphasising patient-centred symptom directed decisions on rate or rhythm control strategies; and 'C' refers to Cardiovascular risk and comorbidity optimization, including lifestyle changes and attention to patient values and preferences, as well as the psychological morbidity associated with AF.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gregory Y H Lip
- Liverpool Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Liverpool and Liverpool Heart & Chest Hospital, Liverpool, United Kingdom; Aalborg Thrombosis Research Unit, Department of Clinical Medicine, Aalborg University, Aalborg, Denmark.
| | - Ying Gue
- Liverpool Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Liverpool and Liverpool Heart & Chest Hospital, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | - Juqian Zhang
- Liverpool Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Liverpool and Liverpool Heart & Chest Hospital, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | - Tze-Fan Chao
- Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan; Institute of Clinical Medicine, and Cardiovascular Research Center, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Hugh Calkins
- Department of Cardiology, Johns Hopkins Medical Institutions, Baltimore MD USA
| | - Tatjana Potpara
- School of Medicine, Belgrade University; Cardiology Clinic, Clinical Centre of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia
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Escobar C, Camm AJ. Changing paradigms: from prevention of thromboembolic events to improved survival in patients with atrial fibrillation. Europace 2021; 23:837-843. [PMID: 33221894 DOI: 10.1093/europace/euaa324] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/23/2020] [Accepted: 09/23/2020] [Indexed: 12/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Atrial fibrillation is associated with a five-fold increase in the risk of stroke. Current guidelines recommend the use of the CHA2DS2-VASc score to stratify the risk of stroke. In addition, guidelines recommend the identification of the conditions that increase the risk of haemorrhage to be modified and thus decrease the risk of bleeding. Nevertheless, many patients with a high thromboembolic risk are prescribed antiplatelet treatment or do not receive any antithrombotic therapy. In addition, therapeutic inertia is common in anticoagulated patients taking vitamin K antagonists, and underdosing is an emerging problem with direct oral anticoagulants, probably because many physicians consider the risk of stroke and the risk of major bleeding to be equal. It is necessary to develop a new approach to risk stratification, an approach that moves from morbidity to mortality, i.e., from stratification of the risk of stroke and major bleeding to stratification of the risk of mortality associated with stroke and the risk of mortality associated with bleeding. In this article, we propose a novel risk stratification approach based on the mortality associated with stroke and bleeding, illustrated by data derived from the literature.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carlos Escobar
- Cardiology Department, Hospital Universitario La Paz, Madrid, Spain
| | - A John Camm
- Cardiovascular Clinical Academic Group, St. George's University of London, London, UK
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Noubiap JJ, Feteh VF, Middeldorp ME, Fitzgerald JL, Thomas G, Kleinig T, Lau DH, Sanders P. A meta-analysis of clinical risk factors for stroke in anticoagulant-naïve patients with atrial fibrillation. Europace 2021; 23:1528-1538. [PMID: 34279604 DOI: 10.1093/europace/euab087] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/10/2020] [Accepted: 03/22/2021] [Indexed: 01/21/2023] Open
Abstract
AIMS The aim of this study is to summarize data from prospective cohort studies on clinical predictors of stroke and systemic embolism in anticoagulant-naïve atrial fibrillation (AF) patients. METHODS AND RESULTS EMBASE, MEDLINE, Global Index Medicus, and Web of Science were searched to identify all studies published by 28 November 2019. Forty-seven studies reporting data from 1 756 984 participants in 15 countries were included. The pooled incidence of stroke in anticoagulant-naïve AF patients was 23.8 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 19.7-28.2). Older age was associated with incident stroke or systemic embolism, with a pooled hazard ratio (HR) of 2.14 (95% CI 1.85-2.47), 2.83 (95% CI 2.27-3.51), and 6.87 (95% CI 6.33-7.44) for age 65-75, ≥75, and ≥85 years, respectively. Other predictors of stroke or systemic embolism included history of stroke or TIA (HR 2.84, 95% CI 2.19-3.67), hypertension (HR 1.60, 95% CI 1.37-1.86), diabetes (HR 1.28, 95% CI 1.20-1.37), heart failure (HR 1.25, 95% CI 1.11-1.40), peripheral artery disease (pooled HR 1.35, 95% CI 1.04-1.75), vascular disease (pooled HR 1.21, 95% CI 1.06-1.39), and prior myocardial infarction (pooled HR 1.08, 95% CI 1.03-1.14). Female sex was a predictor of thromboembolism in studies outside Asia (HR 1.33, 95% CI 1.15-1.55), but not in those done in Asia (HR 0.95, 95% CI 0.81-1.10). CONCLUSION This study confirms age and prior stroke as the strongest predictors of stroke or systemic embolism in anticoagulant-naive AF patients. Other predictors include hypertension, diabetes, heart failure, and vascular disease. Female sex seems not to be universally associated with stroke or systemic embolism.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jean Jacques Noubiap
- Centre for Heart Rhythm Disorders, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia
| | | | - Melissa E Middeldorp
- Centre for Heart Rhythm Disorders, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia.,Department of Cardiology, Royal Adelaide Hospital, Adelaide, SA 5000, Australia
| | - John L Fitzgerald
- Centre for Heart Rhythm Disorders, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia.,Department of Cardiology, Royal Adelaide Hospital, Adelaide, SA 5000, Australia
| | - Gijo Thomas
- Centre for Heart Rhythm Disorders, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia
| | - Timothy Kleinig
- Department of Neurology, Royal Adelaide Hospital, Adelaide, SA, Australia
| | - Dennis H Lau
- Centre for Heart Rhythm Disorders, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia.,Department of Cardiology, Royal Adelaide Hospital, Adelaide, SA 5000, Australia
| | - Prashanthan Sanders
- Centre for Heart Rhythm Disorders, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia.,Department of Cardiology, Royal Adelaide Hospital, Adelaide, SA 5000, Australia
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Shang L, Zhang L, Guo Y, Sun H, Zhang X, Bo Y, Zhou X, Tang B. A Review of Biomarkers for Ischemic Stroke Evaluation in Patients With Non-valvular Atrial Fibrillation. Front Cardiovasc Med 2021; 8:682538. [PMID: 34277733 PMCID: PMC8281032 DOI: 10.3389/fcvm.2021.682538] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/18/2021] [Accepted: 06/03/2021] [Indexed: 01/06/2023] Open
Abstract
Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most prevalent cardiac arrhythmia worldwide and results in a significantly increased ischemic stroke (IS) risk. IS risk stratification tools are widely being applied to guide anticoagulation treatment decisions and duration in patients with non-valvular AF (NVAF). The CHA2DS2-VASc score is largely validated and currently recommended by renowned guidelines. However, this score is heavily dependent on age, sex, and comorbidities, and exhibits only moderate predictive power. Finding effective and validated clinical biomarkers to assist in personalized IS risk evaluation has become one of the promising directions in the prevention and treatment of NVAF. A number of studies in recent years have explored differentially expressed biomarkers in NVAF patients with and without IS, and the potential role of various biomarkers for prediction or early diagnosis of IS in patients with NVAF. In this review, we describe the clinical application and utility of AF characteristics, cardiac imaging and electrocardiogram markers, arterial stiffness and atherosclerosis-related markers, circulating biomarkers, and novel genetic markers in IS diagnosis and management of patients with NVAF. We conclude that at present, there is no consensus understanding of a desirable biomarker for IS risk stratification in NVAF, and enrolling these biomarkers into extant models also remains challenging. Further prospective cohorts and trials are needed to integrate various clinical risk factors and biomarkers to optimize IS prediction in patients with NVAF. However, we believe that the growing insight into molecular mechanisms and in-depth understanding of existing and emerging biomarkers may further improve the IS risk identification and guide anticoagulation therapy in patients with NVAF.
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Affiliation(s)
- Luxiang Shang
- Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Shandong First Medical University & Shandong Provincial Qianfoshan Hospital, Shandong Medicine and Health Key Laboratory of Cardiac Electrophysiology and Arrhythmia, Jinan, China
| | - Ling Zhang
- Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Cardiac Electrophysiology and Remodeling, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, China.,Department of Pacing and Electrophysiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, China
| | - Yankai Guo
- Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Cardiac Electrophysiology and Remodeling, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, China.,Department of Pacing and Electrophysiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, China
| | - Huaxin Sun
- Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Cardiac Electrophysiology and Remodeling, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, China.,Department of Pacing and Electrophysiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, China
| | - Xiaoxue Zhang
- Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Cardiac Electrophysiology and Remodeling, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, China.,Department of Pacing and Electrophysiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, China
| | - Yakun Bo
- Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Cardiac Electrophysiology and Remodeling, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, China.,Department of Pacing and Electrophysiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, China
| | - Xianhui Zhou
- Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Cardiac Electrophysiology and Remodeling, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, China.,Department of Pacing and Electrophysiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, China
| | - Baopeng Tang
- Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Cardiac Electrophysiology and Remodeling, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, China.,Department of Pacing and Electrophysiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, China
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46
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Samaras A, Doundoulakis I, Antza C, Zafeiropoulos S, Farmakis I, Tzikas A. Comparative Analysis of Risk Stratification Scores in Atrial Fibrillation. Curr Pharm Des 2021; 27:1298-1310. [PMID: 33302847 DOI: 10.2174/1381612826666201210113328] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/10/2020] [Accepted: 09/28/2020] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Atrial Fibrillation (AF) has become a major global health concern and is associated with an increased risk of poor outcomes. Identifying risk factors in patients with AF can be challenging, given the high burden of comorbidities in these patients. Risk stratification schemes appear to facilitate accurate prediction of outcomes and assist therapeutic management decisions. OBJECTIVE To summarize current evidence on risk stratification scores for patients with AF. RESULTS Traditional risk models rely heavily on demographics and comorbidities, while newer tools have been gradually focusing on novel biomarkers and diagnostic imaging to facilitate more personalized risk assessment. Several studies have been conducted to compare existing risk schemes and identify specific patient populations in which the prognostic ability of each scheme excels. However, current guidelines do not appear to encourage the implementation of risk models in clinical practice, as they have not incorporated new ones in their recommendations for the management of patients with AF for almost a decade. CONCLUSION Further work is warranted to analyze new reliable risk stratification schemes and optimally implement them into routine clinical life.
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Affiliation(s)
- Athanasios Samaras
- First Department of Cardiology, AHEPA Hospital, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece
| | - Ioannis Doundoulakis
- First Department of Cardiology, AHEPA Hospital, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece
| | - Christina Antza
- Third Department of Internal Medicine, Papageorgiou Hospital, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece
| | - Stefanos Zafeiropoulos
- First Department of Cardiology, AHEPA Hospital, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece
| | - Ioannis Farmakis
- First Department of Cardiology, AHEPA Hospital, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece
| | - Apostolos Tzikas
- First Department of Cardiology, AHEPA Hospital, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece
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47
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Atar D, Berge E, Le Heuzey JY, Virdone S, Camm AJ, Steffel J, Gibbs H, Goldhaber SZ, Goto S, Kayani G, Misselwitz F, Stepinska J, Turpie AGG, Bassand JP, Kakkar AK. The association between patterns of atrial fibrillation, anticoagulation, and cardiovascular events. Europace 2021; 22:195-204. [PMID: 31747004 PMCID: PMC7005596 DOI: 10.1093/europace/euz292] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/04/2019] [Accepted: 10/07/2019] [Indexed: 12/19/2022] Open
Abstract
AIMS Guidelines do not recommend to take pattern of atrial fibrillation (AF) into account for the indication of anticoagulation (AC). We assessed AF pattern and the risk of cardiovascular events during 2-years of follow-up. METHODS AND RESULTS We categorized AF as paroxysmal, persistent, or permanent in 29 181 patients enrolled (2010-15) in the Global Anticoagulant Registry In the FIELD of AF (GARFIELD-AF). We used multivariable Cox regression to assess the risks of stroke/systemic embolism (SE) and death across patterns of AF, and whether this changed with AC on outcomes. Atrial fibrillation pattern was paroxysmal in 14 344 (49.2%), persistent in 8064 (27.6%), and permanent 6773 (23.2%) patients. Median CHA2DS2-VASc, GARFIELD-AF, and HAS-BLED scores assessing the risk of stroke/SE and/or bleeding were similar across AF patterns, but the risk of death, as assessed by the GARFIELD-AF risk calculator, was higher in non-paroxysmal than in paroxysmal AF patterns. During 2-year follow-up, after adjustment, non-paroxysmal AF patterns were associated with significantly higher rates of all-cause death, stroke/SE, and new/worsening congestive heart failure (CHF) than paroxysmal AF in non-anticoagulated patients only. In anticoagulated patients, a significantly higher risk of death but not of stroke/SE and new/worsening CHF persisted in non-paroxysmal compared with paroxysmal AF patterns. CONCLUSION In non-anticoagulated patients, non-paroxysmal AF patterns were associated with higher risks of stroke/SE, new/worsening HF and death than paroxysmal AF. In anticoagulated patients, the risk of stroke/SE and new/worsening HF was similar across all AF patterns. Thus AF pattern is no longer prognostic for stroke/SE when patients are treated with anticoagulants. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dan Atar
- Department of Cardiology, Oslo University Hospital, Kirkeveien 166, NO-0407 Oslo, Norway
- Department of Cardiology, Institute of Clinical Sciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
- Corresponding author. Tel: +47 22119100. E-mail address:
| | - Eivind Berge
- Department of Cardiology, Oslo University Hospital, Kirkeveien 166, NO-0407 Oslo, Norway
| | - Jean-Yves Le Heuzey
- Department of Cardiology, Georges Pompidou Hospital, René Descartes University, Paris, France
| | - Saverio Virdone
- Department of Clinical Research, Thrombosis Research Institute, London, UK
| | - A John Camm
- Department of Clinical Cardiology, St. George’s University of London, London, UK
| | - Jan Steffel
- Department of Cardiology, University Hospital, Zurich, CH, Switzerland
| | - Harry Gibbs
- Vascular Laboratory, The Alfred Hospital, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Samuel Z Goldhaber
- Cardiovascular Division, Brigham and Women’s Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, USA
| | - Shinya Goto
- Department of Medicine (Cardiology), Tokai University, Kanagawa, Japan
| | - Gloria Kayani
- Department of Clinical Research, Thrombosis Research Institute, London, UK
| | - Frank Misselwitz
- Therapeutic areas Thrombosis & Hematology, Bayer AG, Berlin, Germany
| | - Janina Stepinska
- Department of Intensive Cardiac Therapy, Institute of Cardiology, Warsaw, Poland
| | | | - Jean-Pierre Bassand
- Department of Clinical Research, Thrombosis Research Institute, London, UK
- Department of Cardiology, University of Besançon, France
| | - Ajay K Kakkar
- Department of Clinical Research, Thrombosis Research Institute, London, UK
- Department of Surgery, University College London, London, UK
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48
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Loring Z, Mehrotra S, Piccini JP, Camm J, Carlson D, Fonarow GC, Fox KAA, Peterson ED, Pieper K, Kakkar AK. Machine learning does not improve upon traditional regression in predicting outcomes in atrial fibrillation: an analysis of the ORBIT-AF and GARFIELD-AF registries. Europace 2021; 22:1635-1644. [PMID: 32879969 DOI: 10.1093/europace/euaa172] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/03/2020] [Accepted: 05/26/2020] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
AIMS Prediction models for outcomes in atrial fibrillation (AF) are used to guide treatment. While regression models have been the analytic standard for prediction modelling, machine learning (ML) has been promoted as a potentially superior methodology. We compared the performance of ML and regression models in predicting outcomes in AF patients. METHODS AND RESULTS The Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation (ORBIT-AF) and Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD (GARFIELD-AF) are population-based registries that include 74 792 AF patients. Models were generated from potential predictors using stepwise logistic regression (STEP), random forests (RF), gradient boosting (GB), and two neural networks (NNs). Discriminatory power was highest for death [STEP area under the curve (AUC) = 0.80 in ORBIT-AF, 0.75 in GARFIELD-AF] and lowest for stroke in all models (STEP AUC = 0.67 in ORBIT-AF, 0.66 in GARFIELD-AF). The discriminatory power of the ML models was similar or lower than the STEP models for most outcomes. The GB model had a higher AUC than STEP for death in GARFIELD-AF (0.76 vs. 0.75), but only nominally, and both performed similarly in ORBIT-AF. The multilayer NN had the lowest discriminatory power for all outcomes. The calibration of the STEP modelswere more aligned with the observed events for all outcomes. In the cross-registry models, the discriminatory power of the ML models was similar or lower than the STEP for most cases. CONCLUSION When developed from two large, community-based AF registries, ML techniques did not improve prediction modelling of death, major bleeding, or stroke.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zak Loring
- Duke Clinical Research Institute, Durham, NC, USA.,Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, Duke University Medical Center, 2301 Erwin Rd, DUMC 3845, Durham, NC 27710, USA
| | - Suchit Mehrotra
- Department of Statistics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA
| | - Jonathan P Piccini
- Duke Clinical Research Institute, Durham, NC, USA.,Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, Duke University Medical Center, 2301 Erwin Rd, DUMC 3845, Durham, NC 27710, USA
| | - John Camm
- Cardiology Clinical Academic Group, St. George's University of London, London, UK
| | | | - Gregg C Fonarow
- Department of Medicine, UCLA Division of Cardiology, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Keith A A Fox
- Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Eric D Peterson
- Duke Clinical Research Institute, Durham, NC, USA.,Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, Duke University Medical Center, 2301 Erwin Rd, DUMC 3845, Durham, NC 27710, USA
| | - Karen Pieper
- Duke Clinical Research Institute, Durham, NC, USA
| | - Ajay K Kakkar
- Thrombosis Research Institute, London, UK.,University College London, London, UK
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49
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de Jong Y, Fu EL, van Diepen M, Trevisan M, Szummer K, Dekker FW, Carrero JJ, Ocak G. Validation of risk scores for ischaemic stroke in atrial fibrillation across the spectrum of kidney function. Eur Heart J 2021; 42:1476-1485. [PMID: 33769473 PMCID: PMC8046502 DOI: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehab059] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/13/2020] [Revised: 12/18/2020] [Accepted: 01/22/2021] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Aims The increasing prevalence of ischaemic stroke (IS) can partly be explained by the likewise growing number of patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Risk scores have been developed to identify high-risk patients, allowing for personalized anticoagulation therapy. However, predictive performance in CKD is unclear. The aim of this study is to validate six commonly used risk scores for IS in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients across the spectrum of kidney function. Methods and results Overall, 36 004 subjects with newly diagnosed AF from SCREAM (Stockholm CREAtinine Measurements), a healthcare utilization cohort of Stockholm residents, were included. Predictive performance of the AFI, CHADS2, Modified CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, ATRIA, and GARFIELD-AF risk scores was evaluated across three strata of kidney function: normal kidney function [estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) >60 mL/min/1.73 m2], mild CKD (eGFR 30–60 mL/min/1.73 m2), and advanced CKD (eGFR <30 mL/min/1.73 m2). Predictive performance was assessed by discrimination and calibration. During 1.9 years, 3069 (8.5%) patients suffered an IS. Discrimination was dependent on eGFR: the median c-statistic in normal eGFR was 0.75 (range 0.68–0.78), but decreased to 0.68 (0.58–0.73) and 0.68 (0.55–0.74) for mild and advanced CKD, respectively. Calibration was reasonable and largely independent of eGFR. The Modified CHADS2 score showed good performance across kidney function strata, both for discrimination [c-statistic: 0.78 (95% confidence interval 0.77–0.79), 0.73 (0.71–0.74) and 0.74 (0.69–0.79), respectively] and calibration. Conclusion In the most clinically relevant stages of CKD, predictive performance of the majority of risk scores was poor, increasing the risk of misclassification and thus of over- or undertreatment. The Modified CHADS2 score performed good and consistently across all kidney function strata, and should therefore be preferred for risk estimation in AF patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ype de Jong
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Leiden University Medical Center, Albinusdreef 2, 2333 ZA Leiden, the Netherlands.,Department of Internal Medicine, Leiden University Medical Center, Albinusdreef 2, 2333 ZA Leiden, the Netherlands
| | - Edouard L Fu
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Leiden University Medical Center, Albinusdreef 2, 2333 ZA Leiden, the Netherlands
| | - Merel van Diepen
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Leiden University Medical Center, Albinusdreef 2, 2333 ZA Leiden, the Netherlands
| | - Marco Trevisan
- Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics (MEB), Karolinska Institutet, 171 77 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Karolina Szummer
- Department of Cardiology, Karolinska University Hospital, Karolinska Institutet, 171 77 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Friedo W Dekker
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Leiden University Medical Center, Albinusdreef 2, 2333 ZA Leiden, the Netherlands
| | - Juan J Carrero
- Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics (MEB), Karolinska Institutet, 171 77 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Gurbey Ocak
- Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Leiden University Medical Center, Albinusdreef 2, 2333 ZA Leiden, the Netherlands.,Department of Internal Medicine, Sint Antonius Hospital, Koekoekslaan 1, 3435 CM Nieuwegein, the Netherlands
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50
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Bleeding and related mortality with NOACs and VKAs in newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation: results from the GARFIELD-AF registry. Blood Adv 2021; 5:1081-1091. [PMID: 33606006 DOI: 10.1182/bloodadvances.2020003560] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/16/2020] [Accepted: 12/02/2020] [Indexed: 12/29/2022] Open
Abstract
In atrial fibrillation (AF), lower risks of death and bleeding with non-vitamin-K oral anticoagulants (NOACs) were reported in meta-analyses of controlled trials, but whether these findings hold true in real-world practice remains uncertain. Risks of bleeding and death were assessed in 52 032 patients with newly diagnosed AF enrolled in GARFIELD-AF (Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation), a worldwide prospective registry. Baseline treatment was vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) with or without antiplatelet (AP) agents (VKA ± AP) (20 151; 39.3%), NOACs ± AP agents (14 103; 27.5%), AP agents only (10 748; 21.0%), or no antithrombotics (6219; 12.1%). One-year follow-up event rates (95% confidence interval [CI]) of minor, clinically relevant nonmajor (CRNM), and major bleedings were 2.29 (2.16-2.43), 1.10 (1.01-1.20), and 1.31 (1.21-1.41) per 100 patient-years, respectively. Bleeding risk was lower with NOACs than VKAs for any bleeding (hazard ratio (HR) [95% CI]), 0.85 [0.73-0.98]) or major bleeding (0.79 [0.60-1.04]). Compared with no bleeding, the risk of death was higher with minor bleeding (adjusted HR [aHR], 1.53 [1.07-2.19]), CRNM bleeding (aHR, 2.59 [1.80-3.73]), and major bleeding (aHR, 8.24 [6.76-10.04]). The all-cause mortality rate was lower with NOACs than with VKAs (aHR, 0.73 [0.62-0.85]). Forty-five percent (114) of all deaths occurred within 30 days, and 40% of these were from intracranial/intraspinal hemorrhage (ICH). The rates of any bleeding and all-cause death were lower with NOACs than with VKAs. Major bleeding was associated with the highest risk of death. CRNM bleeding and minor bleeding were associated with a higher risk of death compared to no bleeding. Death within 30 days after a major bleed was most frequently related to ICH. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT01090362.
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