Cause-specific mortality: understanding uncertain tips of the disease iceberg

Hypertension and one-year risk of all-cause mortality among women with treated HIV in the United States

OBJECTIVE

Hypertension is a critical cause of cardiovascular disease, and women with HIV have a higher prevalence of hypertension than women without HIV. The relationship between hypertension and mortality has not been well characterized in women with treated HIV. Here, we estimate the effect of hypertension on 1-year risk of all-cause mortality among women with HIV on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the United States.

DESIGN

An analysis of multicenter, observational cohort data from the Women's Interagency HIV Study (WIHS) collected between 1995 and 2019.

METHODS

We included women with HIV who reported ever using ART. We used parametric g-computation to estimate the effect of hypertension (SBP ≥140  mmHg, DBP ≥90 mmHg, or use of hypertensive medication) on all-cause mortality within 1 year of a WIHS visit.

RESULTS

Among 2929 unique women, we included 57 034 visits with a median age of 45 (interquartile range: 39, 52) years. Women had hypertension at 34.5% of visits, and 641 deaths occurred within 1 year of a study visit. Comparing women at visits with hypertension to women at visits without hypertension, the standardized 1-year risk ratio for mortality was 1.16 [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.01-1.33]. The risk ratios were higher in Hispanic (risk ratio: 1.23, 95% CI: 0.86-1.77) and non-Hispanic black women (risk ratio: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.04-1.37) and lower in non-Hispanic white women (risk ratio: 0.93, 95% CI: 0.58-1.48).

CONCLUSION

Among women with treated HIV, those with hypertension, compared with those without, had an increased 1-year risk of all-cause mortality.

Missing cases of injury death: use of quantitative methods and case reviews to inform future improvements in case definition

BACKGROUND

Knowledge of fatal injuries is required to inform prevention activities. Where hospital patients with an injury principal diagnosis (PDx) died and were certified to a medical underlying cause of death (UCoD), there is the potential to underestimate injury mortality. We sought to characterise injury/non-injury (NI) mismatches between PDx and UCoD by identifying which subgroups had small/large mismatches, and to understand why mismatches had occurred using informative examples.

METHOD

Hospital records (n=10 234) with a PDx of injury were linked to the mortality collection using a unique personal identifier. Percentages UCoD coded to a NI were tabulated, for three follow-up periods and by selected variables. Additionally, we reviewed a sample of 70 records for which there was a mismatch.

RESULTS

%NIs were 39%, 66% and 77% for time from injury to death of <1 week, <90 days and <1 year, respectively. Variations in %NI were found for all variables. Illustrative examples of 70 medical UCoD deaths showed that for 12 cases the injury event was unequivocally judged to have resulted in premature death. A further 16 were judged as injury deaths using balance of probability arguments.

CONCLUSION

There is variation in rates of mismatch between PDx of injury and UCoD of NI. While legitimate reasons exist for mismatches in certain groups, a material number of injury deaths are not captured using UCoD alone; a new operational definition of injury death is needed. Early solutions are proposed. Further work is needed to investigate operational definitions with acceptable false positive and negative detection rates.

Changes in liver-related mortality by etiology and sequelae: underlying versus multiple causes of death

Background

The expanded definition of liver-related deaths includes a wide range of etiologies and sequelae. We compared the changes in liver-related mortality by etiology and sequelae for different age groups between 2008 and 2018 in the USA using both underlying and multiple cause of death (UCOD and MCOD) data.

Methods

We extracted mortality data from the CDC WONDER. Both the absolute (rate difference) and relative (rate ratio and 95% confidence intervals) changes were calculated to quantify the magnitude of change using the expanded definition of liver-related mortality.

Result

Using the expanded definition including secondary liver cancer and according to UCOD data, we identified 68,037 liver-related deaths among people aged 20 years and above in 2008 (29 per 100,000) and this increased to 90,635 in 2018 (33 per 100,000), a 13% increase from 2008 to 2018. However, according to MCOD data, the number of deaths was 113,219 (48 per 100,000) in 2008 and increased to 161,312 (58 per 100,000) in 2018, indicating a 20% increase. The increase according to MCOD was mainly due to increase in alcoholic liver disease and secondary liver cancer (liver metastasis) for each age group and hepatitis C virus (HCV) and primary liver cancer among decedents aged 65–74 years.

Conclusion

The direction of mortality change (increasing or decreasing) was similar in UCOD and MCOD data in most etiologies and sequelae, except secondary liver cancer. However, the extent of change differed between UCOD and MCOD data.

Estimating a Set of Mortality Risk Functions with Multiple Contributing Causes of Death

BACKGROUND

There are few methodologic examples of how multiple causes of death may be summarized in cause-specific mortality analyses to address limitations of attributing death to a single underlying cause. We propose a cause-of-death weighting approach to estimate the set of risk functions of specific causes of mortality using both underlying and contributing cause-of-death information.

METHODS

We constructed weights according to a user-specified function. Using data from four southern US human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) clinics, we constructed a cause of death-weighted Aalen-Johansen estimator of the cumulative incidence function to estimate risks of five specific causes of mortality in the full sample and by injection drug use history.

RESULTS

Among 7740 HIV-positive patients initiating antiretroviral therapy between 1999 and 2014, the 8-year risk of all-cause mortality was 17.5% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 16.5, 18.4]. The cause of death-weighted risk of HIV-related mortality was 6.7% (95% CI = 6.0, 7.3) and accounted for 39% (95% CI = 35, 42) of total mortality risk. This compared with 10.2% (95% CI = 9.2, 11.2) using only the underlying cause, in which case HIV-related deaths accounted for nearly 60% of total mortality risk. The proportion attributable to cardiovascular disease among those whose HIV risk factor was injection drug use was twice as high using cause-of-death weights compared with only the underlying cause (8%; 95% CI = 5, 11 vs 4%; 95% CI = 1, 6).

CONCLUSION

Using cause of death-weighted estimators to incorporate multiple causes of death may yield different conclusions regarding the importance of certain causes of mortality. See video abstract: http://links.lww.com/EDE/B706.

Estimates of age specific death rates in people with diabetes and associated multimorbidity using Australian administrative pharmaceutical data

INTRODUCTION

Estimating the mortality risk of persons with diabetes can be challenging. Associated conditions such as cardiovascular disease can become the primary cause of mortality and the underlying contribution of diabetes not recorded. Alternative methods to assess mortality risk in people with diabetes would be useful.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate an Australian pharmaceutical database to identify multi-morbidity cohorts associated with diabetes and determine mortality rates in these groups using prescription exchange cessation as a proxy event for death.

METHODS

Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme data covering the period 2003-14 were used. Persons with diabetes, cardiovascular diseases and dyslipidemia were identified using Anatomic Therapeutic Chemical codes allocated to their recorded dispensed treatments. People with combinations of these conditions were followed and the last recorded prescription exchange used as a proxy event for mortality. Age and gender specific mortality rates and mortality rate ratios for the multi-morbidity cohorts were then calculated from the number of deaths occurring within 10 years.

RESULTS

346,201 individuals were identified as taking treatments for diabetes, dyslipidemia and cardiovascular conditions in 2004, 86,165 deaths occurred within 10 years of follow up. Overall crude mortality was 26.2/1,000 person years. Age specific mortality rates and rate ratios were calculated for various multi-morbidity groupings. Statin treatments improved the mortality rates associated with diabetes and cardiovascular disease in persons age >54 (Log-Rank <.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Administrative pharmaceutical data can be used to identify persons with diabetes and associated multi-morbidities. Proxy mortality events defined by the cessation of treatment can generate mortality rates, providing an alternative perspective for the assessment of mortality risk.

Factors associated with under-reporting of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma in cause-of-death records: A comparative study of two national databases in France from 2008 to 2012

OBJECTIVE

To date, no study has evaluated the detection rate of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) in cause-of-death records in Europe. Our objectives were to compare the number of deaths attributable to HNSCC from two national databases in France and to identify factors associated with under-reporting of HNSCC in cause-of-death records.

METHODS

The national hospital discharge database and the national underlying cause-of-death records were compared for all HNSCC-attributable deaths in adult patients from 2008 to 2012 in France. Factors associated with under-reporting of HNSCC in cause-of-death records were assessed using multivariate Poisson regression.

RESULTS

A total of 41,503 in-hospital deaths were attributable to HNSCC as compared to 25,647 deaths reported in national UCoD records (a detection rate of 62%). Demographics at death were similar in both databases with respect to gender (83% men), age (54% premature deaths at 25-64 years), and geographic distribution. In multivariate Poisson regression, under-reporting of HNSCC in cause-of-death records significantly increased in 2012 compared to 2010 (+7%) and was independently associated with a primary HNSCC site other than the larynx, a former primary or second synchronous cancer other than HNSCC, distant metastasis, palliative care, and death in hospitals other than comprehensive cancer care centers. The main study results were robust in a sensitivity analysis which also took into account deaths outside hospital (overall, 51,129 HNSCC-attributable deaths; a detection rate of 50%). For the year 2012, the age-standardized mortality rate for HNSCC derived from underlying cause-of-death records was less than half that derived from hospital discharge summaries (14.7 compared to 34.1 per 100,000 for men and 2.7 compared to 6.2 per 100,000 for women).

CONCLUSION

HNSCC is largely under-reported in cause-of-death records. This study documents the value of national hospital discharge databases as a complement to death certificates for ascertaining cancer deaths.

Is Master Health Checkup the Answer to Tackle the Rising Non-Communicable Disease Burden in India? - A Cross-Sectional Study

Background

Master Health Checkup (MHC) is a battery of tests done to detect and identify Non Communicable Diseases (NCDs) early. But it should also be noted that some tests in MHC have no known benefits for otherwise healthy adults. This study was conducted to evaluate the usefulness of MHC in a hospital based setting.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was conducted among 337 subjects aged 18 years and above who attended the MHC Clinic during the study period. They were subjected to interview and various biochemical investigations to estimate the number of newly diagnosed, clinically relevant abnormalities among apparently normal adults using standard guidelines. Categorical data summarized as frequencies with percentages. Chi-square test was used to compare proportions.

Results

Among the 337 participants, 244 were apparently normal with a gender distribution as 109 (44.7%) males and 135 (55.3%) females. The study was able to newly detect 12.3% with Type 2 diabetes, 37.7% in pre-diabetic stage, 54.1% with anaemia, 42.2% with dyslipidemia, 11.5% with hypothyroidism, 27% with liver disorders and 6.5% with renal disorders, about which the participants were unaware of. Females also had statistically significant association with dyslipidaemia and hypothyroidism compared to males with a p-value of 0.004, 0.026 respectively. Apparently normal participants aged > 35 years had strong statistical association with diabetic status and dyslipidemia compared to those aged between 18 – 35 years (p-value 0.001).

Conclusion

Based on the results from the study it is evident that a significant number of NCDs were newly identified by Master Health checkup (MHC).

Trends In Inequalities In Mortality Amenable To Health Care In 17 European Countries

Little is known about the effectiveness of health care in reducing inequalities in health. We assessed trends in inequalities in mortality from conditions amenable to health care in seventeen European countries in the period 1980-2010 and used models that included country fixed effects to study the determinants of these trends. Our findings show remarkable declines over the study period in amenable mortality among people with a low level of education. We also found stable absolute inequalities in amenable mortality over time between people with low and high levels of education, but widening relative inequalities. Higher health care expenditure was associated with lower mortality from amenable causes, but not from nonamenable causes. The effect of health care expenditure on amenable mortality was equally strong, in relative terms, among people with low levels of education and those with high levels. As a result, higher health care expenditure was associated with a narrowing of absolute inequalities in amenable mortality. Our findings suggest that in the European context, more generous health care funding provides some protection against inequalities in amenable mortality.

Frequency, associated features, and burden of neurological disorders in older adult inpatients in Brazil: a retrospective cross-sectional study

Background

The burden of neurological disorders (NDs) in older adult inpatients is often underestimated. We studied diagnostic frequency and comorbidity of NDs among inpatients aged ≥60 years. We compared rates of hospital mortality, length of stay (LOS), and readmission with younger patient counterparts (aged 18–59 years) and older adult non-neurological patients.

Methods

This was a retrospective cross-sectional study of inpatients in a tertiary care center in Brazil. We compiled data for all patients admitted between 1 January 2009 and 31 December 2010, and selected those aged ≥18 years for inclusion in the study. We collected data for inpatients under care of a clinical neurologist who were discharged with primary diagnoses of NDs or underlying acute clinical disorders, and data for complications in clinical or surgical inpatients. Patients who remained hospitalized for more than 9 days were categorized as having long LOS.

Results

Older adult inpatients with NDs (n = 798) represented 56% of all neurological inpatients aged ≥18 years (n = 1430), and 14% of all geriatric inpatients (n = 5587). The mean age of older adult inpatients was 75 ± 9.1 years. Women represented 55% of participants. The most common NDs were cerebrovascular diseases (51%), although multimorbidity was observed. Hospital mortality rate was 18% (95% confidence interval [CI], 15–21) and readmission rate was 31% (95% CI, 28–35), with 40% of patients readmitted 1.8 ± 1.5 times. The long LOS rate was 51% and the median LOS was 9 days (interquartile interval, 1–20 days). In younger inpatients mortality rate was 1.4%, readmission rate was 34%, and long LOS rate was 14%. In older adult non-neurological inpatients, mortality rate was 22%, readmission rate was 49%, and long LOS rate was 30%.

Conclusions

Older adult neurological inpatients had the highest long LOS rate of all patient groups, and a higher mortality rate than neurological patients aged 18–59 years. Readmissions were high in all groups studied, particularly among older adult non-neurological inpatients. Improved structures and concerted efforts are required in hospitals in Brazil to reduce burden of NDs in older adult patients.

'Natural' and 'Unnatural' medical deaths and coronial law: A UK and international review of the medical literature on natural and unnatural death and how it applies to medical death certification and reporting deaths to coroners: Natural/Unnatural death: A Scientific Review

In the United Kingdom, when people die, either a doctor writes an acceptable natural cause of death medical certificate, or a coroner (fiscal in Scotland) investigates the case, usually with an autopsy. An inquest may or may not follow. The concept of 'natural or unnatural cause' death is not internationally standardized. This article reviews scientific evidence as to what is a natural death or unnatural death and how that relates to the international classification of deaths. Whilst there is some consensus on the definition, its application in considering whether to report to the coroner is more difficult. Depictions of deaths in terminal care, medical emergencies and post-operative care highlight these difficulties. It secondly reviews to what extent natural and unnatural are criteria for notification of deaths in England and Wales and internationally. It concludes with consideration of how medical concepts of unnatural death relate in England and Wales to coroners' legal concepts of what is unnatural. Deaths that appear natural to clinicians and pathologists may be legally unnatural and vice versa. It is argued that the natural/unnatural dichotomy is not a good criterion for reporting deaths under medical care to coroners, but the notification of a medical cause of death, using the International Classification of Disease Codes and the medical professional view as to whether it is scientifically natural, is of great value to the coroner in deciding whether it is legally unnatural.

Diabetes mellitus statistics on prevalence and mortality: facts and fallacies

Diabetes mellitus is one of the most important public health challenges of the twenty-first century. Until the past decade, it has been seriously underrated as a global health threat. Major gaps exist in efforts to comprehend the burden nationally and globally, especially in developing nations, due to a lack of accurate data for monitoring and surveillance. Early attempts to obtain accurate data, discussed in this article, seem to have been cast aside so, at present, these needs remain unmet. Existing international efforts to assemble information fall far short of requirements. Current estimates are imprecise, only providing a rough picture, and probably underestimate the disease burden. The methodologies that are currently used, and that are discussed in this Perspectives article, are inadequate for providing a complete and accurate assessment of the prevalence of diabetes mellitus. International consensus on uniform standards and criteria for reporting national data on diabetes mellitus prevalence as well as for common complications of diabetes mellitus and mortality need to be developed.

Treatment of End-stage Kidney Failure without Renal Replacement Therapy

For the majority of patients with end-stage kidney failure (ESKF) replacement of excretory renal function by dialysis or transplantation (RRT) can extend life and alleviate symptoms. Historically, the availability of RRT has been insufficient and this remains the case for much of the world. However, RRT is now widely available in healthcare systems of higher income countries. Increasing numbers of elderly patients are developing ESKF. RRT in this population is largely by dialysis, comorbidity is high and life expectancy short. Evidence of effectiveness coupled with the burden of treatment among these individuals has raised concerns that health services in high-income countries may have moved from an era of unmet need into one of potential over-treatment. Alongside the requirement to make treatment more patient-centered, this has driven the development of comprehensive conservative care as an alternative approach for older comorbid individuals with ESKF, with the potential for acceptable symptom control and reduced treatment burden. This paper provides a largely UK-perspective on treating ESKF without RRT. Emphasis is on the need for high-quality evidence to inform treatment decisions. Complexities of defining, delivering and improving treatment of ESKF without dialysis care are explored. Quantitative and qualitative evidence are summarized and the relationship with palliative and terminal care examined. A framework is suggested for classifying management of ESKF and recommendations made to improve delivery of nondialysis care in the future. For patients with a poor prognosis, such treatment may not result in significantly different survival or quality of life when compared with dialysis. There is a key need to generate the best possible evidence of person-centered health outcomes associated with the various treatment options for ESKF and to present this to patients in a balanced, personalized way that allows them to make the treatment decision most appropriate for them.

Information Management Strategies and Death Certification in the UK

There is a great desire by the public, health professionals and judiciary to dramatically alter the certification of death in the UK. Proposed changes have major implications for the way death certification data are collected, disseminated, processed, analysed and ultimately used to inform management decision-making and policy for public health. The article describes current information management strategies with regard to certifying death and identifies challenges, highlighting the local level use of mortality data. Suggestions to resolve some of the information management issues that have relevance beyond the UK are made and areas for further research are identifie

Short-term and long-term risk factors in gastric cancer

While in chronic diseases, such as diabetes, mortality rates slowly increases with age, in oncological series mortality usually changes dramatically during the follow-up, often in an unpredictable pattern. For instance, in gastric cancer mortality peaks in the first two years of follow-up and declines thereafter. Also several risk factors, such as TNM stage, largely affect mortality in the first years after surgery, while afterward their effect tends to fade. Temporal trends in mortality were compared between a gastric cancer series and a cohort of type 2 diabetic patients. For this purpose, 937 patients, undergoing curative gastrectomy with D1/D2/D3 lymphadenectomy for gastric cancer in three GIRCG (Gruppo Italiano Ricerca Cancro Gastrico = Italian Research Group for Gastric Cancer) centers, were compared with 7148 type 2 diabetic patients from the Verona Diabetes Study. In the early/advanced gastric cancer series, mortality from recurrence peaked to 200 deaths per 1000 person-years 1 year after gastrectomy and then declined, becoming lower than 40 deaths per 1000 person-years after 5 years and lower than 20 deaths after 8 years. Mortality peak occurred earlier in more advanced T and N tiers. At variance, in the Verona diabetic cohort overall mortality slowly increased during a 10-year follow-up, with ageing of the type 2 diabetic patients. Seasonal oscillations were also recorded, mortality being higher during winter than during summer. Also the most important prognostic factors presented a different temporal pattern in the two diseases: while the prognostic significance of T and N stage markedly decrease over time, differences in survival among patients treated with diet, oral hypoglycemic drugs or insulin were consistent throughout the follow-up. Time variations in prognostic significance of main risk factors, their impact on survival analysis and possible solutions were evaluated in another GIRCG series of 568 patients with advanced gastric cancer, undergoing curative gastrectomy with D2/D3 lymphadenectomy. Survival curves in the two different histotypes (intestinal and mixed/diffuse) were superimposed in the first three years of follow-up and diverged thereafter. Likewise, survival curves as a function of site (fundus vs body/antrum) started to diverge after the first year. On the contrary, survival curves differed among age classes from the very beginning, due to different post-operative mortality, which increased from 0.5% in patients aged 65-74 years to 9.9% in patients aged 75-91 years; this discrepancy later disappeared. Accordingly, the proportional hazards assumption of the Cox model was violated, as regards age, site and histology. To cope with this problem, multivariable survival analysis was performed by separately considering either the first two years of follow-up or subsequent years. Histology and site were significant predictors only after two years, while T and N, although significant both in the short-term and in the long-term, became less important in the second part of follow-up. Increasing age was associated with higher mortality in the first two years, but not thereafter. Splitting survival time when performing survival analysis allows to distinguish between short-term and long-term risk factors. Alternative statistical solutions could be to exclude post-operative mortality, to introduce in the model time-dependent covariates or to stratify on variables violating proportionality assumption.

Automated comparison of last hospital main diagnosis and underlying cause of death ICD10 codes, France, 2008-2009

BACKGROUND

In the age of big data in healthcare, automated comparison of medical diagnoses in large scale databases is a key issue. Our objectives were: 1) to formally define and identify cases of independence between last hospitalization main diagnosis (MD) and death registry underlying cause of death (UCD) for deceased subjects hospitalized in their last year of life; 2) to study their distribution according to socio-demographic and medico-administrative variables; 3) to discuss the interest of this method in the specific context of hospital quality of care assessment.

METHODS

1) Elaboration of an algorithm comparing MD and UCD, relying on Iris, a coding system based on international standards. 2) Application to 421,460 beneficiaries of the general health insurance regime (which covers 70% of French population) hospitalized and deceased in 2008-2009.

RESULTS

1) Independence, was defined as MD and UCD belonging to different trains of events leading to death 2) Among the deaths analyzed automatically (91.7%), 8.5% of in-hospital deaths and 19.5% of out-of-hospital deaths were classified as independent. Independence was more frequent in elder patients, as well as when the discharge-death time interval grew (14.3% when death occurred within 30 days after discharge and 27.7% within 6 to 12 months) and for UCDs other than neoplasms.

CONCLUSION

Our algorithm can identify cases where death can be considered independent from the pathology treated in hospital. Excluding these deaths from the ones allocated to the hospitalization process could contribute to improve post-hospital mortality indicators. More generally, this method has the potential of being developed and used for other diagnoses comparisons across time periods or databases.

Cocaine use and the likelihood of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality: data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey Mortality Follow-up Study

BACKGROUND

Numerous case series have implicated cocaine use as a cause of both myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke on the basis of the temporal relationship between drug use and event onset. The relatively high prevalence of cocaine use in the US population, especially in younger individuals, mandates a more extensive investigation of this relationship.

METHODS

We determined the relationship between cocaine use and cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in a nationally representative sample of 9013 US adults aged 18 to 45 years who participated in the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey Mortality Follow-up Study using Cox proportional hazards analyses. We categorized the participants as nonusers if they responded to the lifetime cocaine use question as never used, as infrequent users if they responded as using <10 times, and as frequent or regular users if they reported using 10-99 times or >100 times, respectively. Potential confounding factors in the association between cocaine use and death (cardiovascular and all cause) included age, sex, race/ethnicity, cigarette smoking, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, educational attainment, body mass index, and insurance status. To estimate the impact of cocaine use on MI or stroke, we calculated the population attributable risk (PAR) percent for cocaine use with cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. We also estimated the years of life lost and total annual financial cost due to premature deaths in persons who reported regular use of cocaine.

RESULTS

A total of 60 cardiovascular deaths and 384 all causes deaths were reported during a mean follow-up period of 14.7 ± 2.6 years. After adjusting for differences in potential confounders, persons who reported regular lifetime cocaine use had a significantly higher likelihood of all-cause mortality (relative risk [RR], 1.9; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2-3.0 for ≥100 times in lifetime) but not cardiovascular mortality (RR, 0.6; 95% CI, 0.1-4.7 for ≥100 times in lifetime). The PAR of regular cocaine use for all cause mortality among was 1.79%. The years of life lost due to regular cocaine use was 10.3 years for an adult aged 31 years. The overall yearly cost incurred due to premature deaths related to regular cocaine use was $1.1 billion.

CONCLUSION

Regular cocaine use was associated with an increased risk of all cause mortality but this effect was not mediated through cardiovascular events. Behavior modification by public awareness and education may reduce the mortality and financial burden associated with cocaine use.

A comparison of relative and cause-specific survival by cancer site, age and time since diagnosis

Relative survival (RS) estimates are widely used by cancer registries, mainly because they do not rely on the well-documented deficiencies of cause of death information. The aim of our study was to compare 5-year cause-specific survival (CSS) estimates and 5-year RS estimates for different cancer sites by age and time since diagnosis, and discuss possible reasons for observed differences. Using data from the Cancer Registry of Norway, we identified 200,008 patients diagnosed with cancer at one of the 48 sites included in this analysis during the period 1996-2005, and followed them up until the end of 2010. CSS estimates were calculated (i) considering cause of death to be the cancer that was originally diagnosed and (ii) considering the cause of death to be a cancer within the same organ system. For most cancer sites the difference between CSS and RS estimates was small (<5%). The greatest differences were seen for rarer cancers such as mediastinum and Kaposi sarcoma. Including deaths from the same organ system in the calculation of CSS further reduced the differences for many sites. For younger age groups and shorter time since diagnosis, RS and CSS estimates tended to be similar, whereas CSS estimates tended to be lower than RS estimates with longer time since diagnosis in the oldest age groups. When compared to RS estimates CSS estimates were reliable for most of the cancer sites included in our analysis. There are, however, some exceptions where CSS estimates may not be recommended, including for rarer cancers and for patients aged 85 and above.

Nationwide individual record linkage study showed poor agreement of causes of death and hospital diagnoses at individual level but reasonable agreement at population level

OBJECTIVES

To investigate to what extent underlying and multiple causes of death represent end-of-life morbidity in individuals and at population level.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

Cause of death and national hospital data were individually linked for all deaths at the age of 50-84 years, in 2005 in the Netherlands (n = 86,987). The individual agreement of diseases registered as a diagnosis of discharge in the last 2 years of life and underlying and multiple causes of death recorded was assessed. Cause-of-death ranking was compared with ranking of hospital diagnoses.

RESULTS

The percentage of persons with a hospital diagnosis registered as the underlying cause of death was <30% for most diseases, except for cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and bronchiectasis, acute myocardial infarction (40-60%), and cancers (70-90%). Low Cohen's kappa values confirmed poor individual agreement between hospital diagnoses and underlying and secondary causes of death recorded. At population level, however, frequency rankings of underlying and multiple causes of death agreed reasonably well with frequency ranking of hospital diagnoses (Spearman ρ of 0.58-0.60 and 0.61-0.63).

CONCLUSION

Underlying and multiple causes of death poorly represent diseases present at the end of life in individuals but show reasonably well which diseases are most common at population level.

Unequal trends in coronary heart disease mortality by socioeconomic circumstances, England 1982-2006: an analytical study

Background

Coronary heart disease (CHD) remains a major public health burden, causing 80,000 deaths annually in England and Wales, with major inequalities. However, there are no recent analyses of age-specific socioeconomic trends in mortality. We analysed annual trends in inequalities in age-specific CHD mortality rates in small areas in England, grouped into deprivation quintiles.

Methods

We calculated CHD mortality rates for 10-year age groups (from 35 to ≥85 years) using three year moving averages between 1982 and 2006. We used Joinpoint regression to identify significant turning points in age- sex- and deprivation-specific time trends. We also analysed trends in absolute and relative inequalities in age-standardised rates between the least and most deprived areas.

Results

Between 1982 and 2006, CHD mortality fell by 62.2% in men and 59.7% in women. Falls were largest for the most deprived areas with the highest initial level of CHD mortality. However, a social gradient in the pace of fall was apparent, being steepest in the least deprived quintile. Thus, while absolute inequalities narrowed over the period, relative inequalities increased. From 2000, declines in mortality rates slowed or levelled off in the youngest groups, notably in women aged 45–54 in the least deprived groups. In contrast, from age 55 years and older, rates of fall in CHD mortality accelerated in the 2000s, likewise falling fastest in the least deprived quintile.

Conclusions

Age-standardised CHD mortality rates have declined substantially in England, with the steepest falls in the most affluent quintiles. However, this concealed contrasting patterns in underlying age-specific rates. From 2000, mortality rates levelled off in the youngest groups but accelerated in middle aged and older groups. Mortality analyses by small areas could provide potentially valuable insights into possible drivers of inequalities, and thus inform future strategies to reduce CHD mortality across all social groups.

Early life predictors of atrial fibrillation-related mortality: evidence from the health and retirement study

Prior research found that Americans born in 6 southeastern states (the AF-risk zone) had elevated risk of AF-related mortality, but no mechanisms were identified. We hypothesized the association between AF-related mortality and AF-risk zone birth is explained by indicators of childhood social disadvantage or adult risk factors. In 24,323 participants in the US Health and Retirement Study, we found that birth in the AF-risk zone was significantly associated with hazard of AF-related mortality. Among whites, the relationship was specific to place of birth, rather than place of adult residence. Neither paternal education nor subjectively assessed childhood SES predicted AF-related mortality. Conventional childhood and adult cardiovascular risk factors did not explain the association between place of birth and AF-related mortality.

Prognosis following upper gastrointestinal bleeding

Background

Upper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding is one of the most common, high risk emergency disorders in the western world. Almost nothing has been reported on longer term prognosis following upper GI bleeding. The aim of this study was to establish mortality up to three years following hospital admission with upper GI bleeding and its relationship with aetiology, co-morbidities and socio-demographic factors.

Methods

Systematic record linkage of hospital inpatient and mortality data for 14 212 people in Wales, UK, hospitalised with upper GI bleeding between 1999 and 2004 with three year follow-up to 2007. The main outcome measures were mortality rates, standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) and relative survival.

Results

Mortality at three years was 36.7% overall, based on 5215 fatalities. It was highest for upper GI malignancy (95% died within three years) and varices (52%). Compared with the general population, mortality was increased 27-fold during the first month after admission. It fell to 4.3 by month four, but remained significantly elevated during every month throughout the three years following admission.

The most important independent prognostic predictors of mortality at three years were older age (mortality increased 53 fold for people aged 85 years and over compared with those under 40 years); oesophageal and gastric/duodenal malignancy (48 and 32 respectively) and gastric varices aetiologies (2.8) when compared with other bleeds; non-upper GI malignancy, liver disease and renal failure co-morbidities (15, 7.9 and 3.9); social deprivation (29% increase for quintile V vs I); incident bleeds as an inpatient (31% vs admitted with bleeding) and male patients (25% vs female).

Conclusion

Our study shows a high late as well as early mortality for upper GI bleeding, with very poor longer term prognosis following bleeding due to malignancies and varices. Aetiologies with the worst prognosis were often associated with high levels of social deprivation.

Trends in aortic aneurysm- and dissection-related mortality in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, 1985-2009: multiple-cause-of-death analysis

BACKGROUND

Aortic aneurysm and dissection are important causes of death in older people. Ruptured aneurysms show catastrophic fatality rates reaching near 80%. Few population-based mortality studies have been published in the world and none in Brazil. The objective of the present study was to use multiple-cause-of-death methodology in the analysis of mortality trends related to aortic aneurysm and dissection in the state of Sao Paulo, between 1985 and 2009.

METHODS

We analyzed mortality data from the Sao Paulo State Data Analysis System, selecting all death certificates on which aortic aneurysm and dissection were listed as a cause-of-death. The variables sex, age, season of the year, and underlying, associated or total mentions of causes of death were studied using standardized mortality rates, proportions and historical trends. Statistical analyses were performed by chi-square goodness-of-fit and H Kruskal-Wallis tests, and variance analysis. The joinpoint regression model was used to evaluate changes in age-standardized rates trends. A p value less than 0.05 was regarded as significant.

RESULTS

Over a 25-year period, there were 42,615 deaths related to aortic aneurysm and dissection, of which 36,088 (84.7%) were identified as underlying cause and 6,527 (15.3%) as an associated cause-of-death. Dissection and ruptured aneurysms were considered as an underlying cause of death in 93% of the deaths. For the entire period, a significant increased trend of age-standardized death rates was observed in men and women, while certain non-significant decreases occurred from 1996/2004 until 2009. Abdominal aortic aneurysms and aortic dissections prevailed among men and aortic dissections and aortic aneurysms of unspecified site among women. In 1985 and 2009 death rates ratios of men to women were respectively 2.86 and 2.19, corresponding to a difference decrease between rates of 23.4%. For aortic dissection, ruptured and non-ruptured aneurysms, the overall mean ages at death were, respectively, 63.2, 68.4 and 71.6 years; while, as the underlying cause, the main associated causes of death were as follows: hemorrhages (in 43.8%/40.5%/13.9%); hypertensive diseases (in 49.2%/22.43%/24.5%) and atherosclerosis (in 14.8%/25.5%/15.3%); and, as associated causes, their principal overall underlying causes of death were diseases of the circulatory (55.7%), and respiratory (13.8%) systems and neoplasms (7.8%). A significant seasonal variation, with highest frequency in winter, occurred in deaths identified as underlying cause for aortic dissection, ruptured and non-ruptured aneurysms.

CONCLUSIONS

This study introduces the methodology of multiple-causes-of-death to enhance epidemiologic knowledge of aortic aneurysm and dissection in São Paulo, Brazil. The results presented confer light to the importance of mortality statistics and the need for epidemiologic studies to understand unique trends in our own population.

Certification of deaths from diabetes mellitus and obesity in England: trends into the twenty-first century

BACKGROUND

Most cases of Type 2 diabetes are attributable to excess weight and physical inactivity. We investigated trends in mortality based on doctors' certification of diabetes and obesity.

METHODS

Analysis of a national data set of all certified causes of death, i.e. underlying cause and contributing causes ('mentions'), in England 1995-2010.

RESULTS

Diabetes exhibited divergent trends for mortality based on underlying cause and mentions. Underlying cause rates were 107.2 per million population [95% confidence interval (CI): 105.7-108.6] in 1995, but only 68.9/10(6) (CI: 67.9-69.9) in 2010. Mortality rates for mentions of diabetes were 403.1/10(6) (CI: 400.4-405.8) in 1995, increasing to 478.4/10(6) (CI: 475.7-481.0) in 2010. Underlying cause mortality for obesity was 3.7/10(6) (CI: 3.2-4.1) in 1995 and 7.5 (CI: 7.0-8.0) in 2010. The corresponding rates for mentions of obesity were 13.2/10(6) (CI: 12.6-13.9) and 34.5/10(6) (CI: 33.6-35.4), respectively. 24.0% of death certificates with a mention of obesity also had diabetes recorded on the same certificate.

CONCLUSIONS

Multiple-cause mortality statistics provide a more accurate picture than underlying cause of the total mortality burden attributed on death certificates to diabetes and obesity. Rates for both increased substantially: analysis by underlying cause alone would have missed this for diabetes.

An explanation for the recent increase in the fall death rate among older Americans: a subgroup analysis

OBJECTIVE

We sought to explain the recent increase in the death rate from falls among Americans aged 65 years and older.

METHODS

Using the CDC WONDER online database, a longitudinal analysis of subgroups of fall mortality based on the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10) was conducted in older adults and in younger people. We used linear regression to examine the statistical significance of trends in mortality rates during 1999-2007.

RESULTS

The overall mortality rate from falls increased by 55% among older Americans (≥65 years of age) during 1999-2007, from 29 per 100,000 population to 45 per 100,000 population. For those aged ≥65 years, the largest increase by far (698%) occurred in the subgroup "other falls on the same level," followed by a moderate increase in falls involving wheelchairs or furniture (48%). The steepest increases at all ages occurred from 1999 to 2000, after ICD-10 took effect. State-level analysis confirmed the findings for the entire United States. From 1999 to 2007, total mortality from falls decreased by 5% in people younger than 45 years of age and increased by 44% for those aged 45-64 years; mortality from "other falls on the same level" increased by 202% and 431%, respectively, in these age groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Because the reported minor increases in emergency department and hospitalization rates for falls were insignificant, the almost sevenfold increase in death rates from "other falls on the same level" strongly suggests an effect of improved reporting quality.

Prostate cancer mortality and birth or adult residence in the southern United States

PURPOSE

Although there are few confirmed risk factors for prostate cancer (PCa), mortality rates are known to vary geographically across the United States. PCa mortality is higher among black and younger white men in a band of states spanning from Washington DC to Louisiana (the "PCa belt"). This study assessed the associations of birth and adult residence in the PCa belt with PCa mortality among black and white men and trends in these associations over time.

METHODS

PCa-specific mortality rates in 1980, 1990, and 2000 for black and white men born in the continental US, aged 40-89, were calculated by linking national mortality records with population data based on birth state, state of residence at the census, race, and age. PCa belt (Washington DC, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Mississippi, Alabama, and Louisiana) birth was cross-classified against PCa belt adult residence.

RESULTS

Black men born in the PCa belt had elevated PCa mortality in 1980, 1990, and 2000. Associations were independent of adult residence in the PCa belt. For example, in 2000, black men aged 65-89 who were born in the PCa belt but no longer lived there in adulthood had an odds ratio of 1.19 (1.14-1.24) for PCa mortality compared to black men born and residing outside the PCa belt. The PCa belt was not associated with PCa mortality among whites.

CONCLUSIONS

Geographically patterned childhood exposures, for example, differences in social or environmental conditions, or behavioral norms, may influence PCa mortality.

Geographic distribution of dementia mortality: elevated mortality rates for black and white Americans by place of birth

We hypothesized that patterns of elevated stroke mortality among those born in the United States Stroke Belt (SB) states also prevailed for mortality related to all-cause dementia or Alzheimer Disease. Cause-specific mortality (contributing cause of death, including underlying cause cases) rates in 2000 for United States-born African Americans and whites aged 65 to 89 years were calculated by linking national mortality records with population data based on race, sex, age, and birth state or state of residence in 2000. Birth in a SB state (NC, SC, GA, TN, AR, MS, or AL) was cross-classified against SB residence at the 2000 Census. Compared with those who were not born in the SB, odds of all-cause dementia mortality were significantly elevated by 29% for African Americans and 19% for whites born in the SB. These patterns prevailed among individuals who no longer lived in the SB at death. Patterns were similar for Alzheimer Disease-related mortality. Some non-SB states were also associated with significant elevations in dementia-related mortality. Dementia mortality rates follow geographic patterns similar to stroke mortality, with elevated rates among those born in the SB. This suggests important roles for geographically patterned childhood exposures in establishing cognitive reserve.

Adjusting for the proportion of cancer deaths in the general population when using relative survival: a sensitivity analysis

BACKGROUND

Relative survival is an extensively used method in population based cancer studies as it provides a measure of survival without the need for accurate cause of death information. It gives an estimate for the probability of dying from cancer in the absence of other causes by estimating the excess mortality in the study population when compared to an external group. The external group is usually the general population within a country or state and mortality estimates are taken from national life tables that are broken down by age, sex, calendar year and, where applicable, race/ethnicity. One potential bias when using relative survival that is most often overlooked occurs when there are a high proportion of deaths due to a specific cancer in the external group.

METHODS

This paper uses data from the Finnish Cancer Registry to illustrate, through the use of a simple sensitivity analysis, the impact that specific cancer deaths in the population mortality figures can have on the estimate of relative survival.

RESULTS

We found that when examining specific diseases such as breast cancer and colon cancer, the proportion of deaths due to these specific cancers in the general population is so small in comparison to the total mortality that they make little difference to the relative survival estimates. However, prostate cancer proved to be an exception to this. For all cancer sites combined the sensitivity analysis illustrates a major limitation for this type of analysis, particularly with the older age groups.

CONCLUSION

We recommend that, with a classification of diseases as wide as all cancer sites, relative survival should not be used without appropriate adjustment.

Early-life antecedents of atrial fibrillation: place of birth and atrial fibrillation-related mortality

PURPOSE

Recent evidence suggests early-life factors correlate with atrial fibrillation (AF). We hypothesized that AF-related mortality, similar to stroke mortality, is elevated for individuals born in the southeastern United States.

METHODS

We estimated 3-year (1999-2001) average AF-related mortality rates by using U.S. vital statistics for 55- to 89-year-old white (136,573 AF-related deaths) and black subjects (8,288 AF-related deaths). We estimated age- and sex-adjusted odds of AF-related (contributing cause) mortality associated with birth state, and birth within the U.S. stroke belt (SB), stratified by race. SB results were replicated with the use of 1989-1991 data.

RESULTS

Among black subjects, four contiguous birth states were associated with statistically significant odds ratios ≥ 1.25 compared with the national average AF-related mortality. The four highest-risk birth states for blacks also predicted elevated AF-related mortality among white subjects, but patterns were attenuated. The odds ratio for AF-related mortality associated with SB birth was 1.19 (confidence interval 1.13-1.25) for black and 1.09 (CI 1.07-1.12) for white subjects when we adjusted for SB adult residence.

CONCLUSIONS

Place of birth predicted AF-related mortality, after we adjusted for place of adult residence. The association of AF-related mortality and SB birth parallels that of other cardiovascular diseases and may likewise indicate an importance of early life factors in the development of AF.

[Causes of mortality in COPD]

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is one of the main causes of death in Spain and elsewhere in the world, with an estimated 18,000 and 2.75 million deaths annually. Mortality is predicted to increase in the next few years due to smoking and the aging population. Multiple studies confirm that COPD is underreported as a cause of death on death certificates, due to the difficulty of determining the final cause of death in these patients. The main causes of mortality in COPD range from lung cancer and cardiovascular disease in patients with mild COPD to respiratory failure in the most advanced stages. Fortunately, in the latest updates, guidelines for the management and treatment of the disease identify reduction of mortality as one of the main clinical objectives to be achieved in these patients.

Mortality attributable to diabetes: estimates for the year 2010

Country and global health statistics underestimate the number of excess deaths due to diabetes. The aim of the study was to provide a more accurate estimate of the number of deaths attributable to diabetes for the year 2010. A computerized disease model was used to obtain the estimates. The baseline input data included the population structure, estimates of diabetes prevalence, estimates of underlying mortality and estimates of the relative risk of death for people with diabetes compared to people without diabetes. The total number of excess deaths attributable to diabetes worldwide was estimated to be 3.96 million in the age group 20-79 years, 6.8% of global (all ages) mortality. Diabetes accounted for 6% of deaths in adults in the African Region, to 15.7% in the North American Region. Beyond 49 years of age diabetes constituted a higher proportion of deaths in females than in males in all regions, reaching over 25% in some regions and age groups. Thus, diabetes is a considerable cause of premature mortality, a situation that is likely to worsen, particularly in low and middle income countries as diabetes prevalence increases. Investments in primary and secondary prevention are urgently required to reduce this burden.

Birth and adult residence in the Stroke Belt independently predict stroke mortality

BACKGROUND

Understanding how the timing of exposure to the US Stroke Belt (SB) influences stroke risk may illuminate mechanisms underlying the SB phenomenon and factors influencing population stroke rates.

METHODS

Stroke mortality rates for United States-born black and white people aged 30-80 years were calculated for 1980, 1990, and 2000 for strata defined by birth state, state of adult residence, race, sex, and birth year. Four SB exposure categories were defined: born in a SB state (North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee, Arkansas, Mississippi, or Alabama) and lived in the SB at adulthood; non-SB born but SB adult residence; SB-born but adult residence outside the SB; and did not live in the SB at birth or in adulthood (reference group). We estimated age-, sex-, and race-adjusted odds ratios for stroke mortality associated with timing of SB exposure.

RESULTS

Elevated stroke mortality was associated with both SB birth and, independently, SB adult residence, with the highest risk among those who lived in the SB at birth and adulthood. Compared to those living outside the SB at birth and adulthood, odds ratios for SB residence at birth and adulthood for black subjects were 1.55 (95% confidence interval 1.28, 1.88) in 1980, 1.47 (1.31, 1.65) in 1990, and 1.34 (1.22, 1.48) in 2000. Comparable odds ratios for white subjects were 1.45 (95% confidence interval 1.33, 1.58), 1.29 (1.21, 1.37), and 1.34 (1.25, 1.44). Patterns were similar for every race, sex, and age subgroup examined.

CONCLUSION

Stroke Belt birth and adult residence appear to make independent contributions to stroke mortality risk.

Neurological mortality among U.S. veterans of the Persian Gulf War: 13-year follow-up

BACKGROUND

This study focuses on long-term mortality, specifically brain cancer, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), Parkinson's disease, and multiple sclerosis (MS) of 621,902 veterans who served in the 1990-1991 Persian Gulf War (GW), and 746,248 non-GW veterans.

METHODS

Follow-up began with the date the veteran left the GW theater or May 1, 1991 and ended with the date of death or December 31, 2004. Cox proportional hazard models were used for analyses.

RESULTS

Adjusted mortality rate ratios (aRR) of GW veterans compared to non-GW veterans were not statistically significant for brain cancer (aRR = 0.90, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.73, 1.11), MS (aRR = 0.61, 95% CI: 0.23, 1.63), Parkinson's disease (aRR = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.17, 2.99), or ALS (aRR = 0.96, 95% CI: 0.56, 1.62). GW veterans potentially exposed to nerve agents for 2 or more days and GW veterans exposed to oil well fire smoke were at increased risk for brain cancer mortality (aRR = 2.71, 95% CI: 1.25, 5.87; aRR = 1.81, 95% CI: 1.00, 3.27; respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of death due to ALS, MS, Parkinson's disease, and brain cancer was not associated with 1991 GW service in general. However, GW veterans potentially exposed to nerve agents at Khamisiyah, Iraq, and to oil well fire smoke had an increased risk of mortality due to brain cancer.

Unexplained differences between hospital and mortality data indicated mistakes in death certification: an investigation of 1,094 deaths in Sweden during 1995

OBJECTIVE

Mortality statistics are important for epidemiological research. We examine if discrepancies between death certificate (DC) and hospital discharge condition (HDC) indicate certification errors.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

From 39,872 hospital deaths in Sweden in 1995, we randomly selected 600 "cases," where DC and HDC were incompatible, and 600 compatible "controls," matched on sex, age, and underlying cause of death. We obtained case summaries for 1,094 (91%) of these. Using a structured protocol, we assessed the accuracy of DCs.

RESULTS

Regression analysis indicated diagnostic group and "case" or "control" as the variables that most affected the accuracy. Malignant neoplasm "controls" had the highest accuracy (92%), and benign and unspecified tumor "cases," the lowest (20%). For all diagnostic groups except one, compatible "controls" had better accuracy than incompatible "cases." The exception, chronic obstructive lung disease, had low accuracy for both "cases" (54%) and "controls" (52%).

CONCLUSION

Incompatibility between DC and HDC indicates a greater risk of certification errors. For some diagnostic groups, however, DCs are often inaccurate even when DC and HDC are compatible. By requesting additional information on incompatible cases and all deaths in high-risk diagnostic groups, producers of mortality statistics could improve the accuracy of the statistics.

Combined determination of glucose and fructosamine in vitreous humor as a post-mortem tool to identify antemortem hyperglycemia

In clinical practice, serum glucose levels are used to diagnose diabetes mellitus. In post-mortem diagnosis, however, biochemical markers in vitreous humor are more useful because of the difficulty involved in interpreting blood glucose levels and relatively non-specific pathological features. The aim of this study was to analyze the usefulness of post-mortem determination of glucose and fructosamine combined and to compare the results with those obtained for fructosamine and combined glucose and lactate levels in two diagnostic groups (one diabetic and the other non-diabetic). We studied 377 cadavers (mean age 57.6 yr, SD 20.4, range 15 to 98 yr) with a mean post-mortem interval of 14.9 h. (SD 6.0; range 2 to 24 h). The highest levels were obtained in cases where diabetes mellitus had previously been diagnosed. In relation to diagnostic performance, the most reliable values were those in which glucose and fructosamine were determined jointly. The findings provide information concerning the usefulness of measuring glucose and fructosamine levels as a post-mortem tool for identifying antemortem glycemic control in diabetics.

Certified causes of death in patients with mesothelioma in South East England

BACKGROUND

Mesothelioma is a highly fatal cancer that is caused by exposure to asbestos fibres. In many populations, the occurrence of mesothelioma is monitored with the use of mortality data from death certification. We examine certified causes of death of patients who have been diagnosed with mesothelioma, and assess the validity of death certification data as a proxy for mesothelioma incidence.

METHODS

We extracted mesothelioma registrations in the South East of England area between 2000 and 2004 from the Thames Cancer Registry database. We retained for analysis 2200 patients who had died at the time of analysis, after having excluded seven dead cases where the causes of death were not known to the cancer registry. The 2200 deaths were classified hierarchically to identify (1) mesothelioma deaths, (2) deaths certified as lung cancer deaths or (3) deaths from unspecified cancer, and (4) deaths from other causes.

RESULTS

87% of the patients had mesothelioma mentioned on the death certificate. 6% had no mention of mesothelioma but included lung cancer as a cause of death. Another 6% had no mention of mesothelioma or lung cancer, but included an unspecified cancer as a cause of death. Lastly, 2% had other causes of death specified on the death certificate.

CONCLUSION

This analysis suggests that official mortality data may underestimate the true occurrence of mesothelioma by around 10%.

B-vitamin intake, one-carbon metabolism, and survival in a population-based study of women with breast cancer

Breast cancer is the second leading cause of cancer mortality among women. Given its important role in DNA methylation and synthesis, one-carbon metabolism may affect breast cancer mortality. We used a population-based cohort of 1,508 women with breast cancer to investigate possible associations of dietary intake of B vitamins before diagnosis as well as nine polymorphisms of one-carbon metabolizing genes and subsequent survival. Women newly diagnosed with a first primary breast cancer in 1996 to 1997 were followed for vital status for an average of 5.6 years. Kaplan-Meier survival and Cox proportional hazard regression analyses were used to evaluate the association between dietary intakes of B vitamins (1,479 cases), genotypes ( approximately 1,065 cases), and all-cause as well as breast cancer-specific mortality. We found that higher dietary intake of vitamin B(1) and B(3) was associated with improved survival during the follow-up period (P(trend) = 0.01 and 0.04, respectively). Compared with the major genotype, the MTHFR 677 T allele carriers have reduced all-cause mortality and breast cancer-specific mortality in a dominant model [hazard ratio (95% confidence interval): 0.69 (0.49-0.98) and 0.58 (0.38-0.89), respectively]. The BHMT 742 A allele was also associated with reduced all-cause mortality [hazard ratio, 0.70 (0.50-1.00)]. Estrogen receptor/progesterone receptor status modified the association between the MTHFR C677T polymorphism and survival (P = 0.05). The survival associations with one-carbon polymorphisms did not differ with the use of chemotherapy, although study power was limited for examining such effect modification. Our results indicate that one-carbon metabolism may be an important pathway that could be targeted to improve breast cancer survival.

Asthma mortality among Swedish children and young adults, a 10-year study

BACKGROUND

Previous reports indicate that morbidity and mortality from asthma have increased during the past decades. Here, the mortality rate associated with asthma and possible risk factors in children and young adults in Sweden during the period 1994-2003 were evaluated.

METHODS

The medical profession was asked to report suspected cases of death from asthma in individuals 1-34 years of age. All death certificates containing relevant ICD codes were reviewed. Medical records and autopsy reports were assessed and telephone interviews with next-of-kin performed.

RESULTS

During the 10-year period 37 deaths due to asthma were identified. The median age at the time of death was 27 years and 6 of the deceased were younger than 15. The overall incidence of death from asthma decreased from 1.54 deaths per million in 1994 to 0.53 per million in 2003. Common risk factors were under-treatment (23/37), poor adherence to prescribed treatment (17/37) and adverse psychosocial situation (19/37). An alarming finding was that 11 of the 37 deaths were probably caused by food allergy and for 8 subjects death was associated with exposure to pet dander. The death certificates were found to contain inaccuracies with 30% of those for whom asthma was reported as the underlying cause having died from other causes.

CONCLUSION

Asthma mortality in children and young adults in Sweden decreased between 1994 and 2003. Food allergy and inadequate treatment were the major risk factors for such a death. Recognition and special care of patients with asthma who have shown signs of non-compliance, denial or severe food allergy must be encouraged.

Inflammatory bowel disease, peptic ulcer and diverticular disease as certified causes of death in an English population 1979-2003

BACKGROUND

When gastrointestinal diseases are certified as causes of death, they are often not selected as the underlying cause. Until recently, only one underlying cause of death has been coded and analysed in official national statistics in England and many other countries.

AIMS

To report on the total 'burden of mortality' from some common gastrointestinal diseases, and whether it has changed over time, including all certified causes of death as well as underlying causes, (i) in the Oxford region from 1979 to 2003, (ii) in England from 1996 to 2003; and to quantify the under-ascertainment of cause-specific mortality when based on underlying cause alone.

METHODS

We searched death certificate data from the Oxford Record Linkage Study database, and from English national data, for specified gastrointestinal diseases certified as underlying or contributory causes of death.

RESULTS

For all the conditions studied, underlying-cause-coded mortality missed a substantial percentage of all certified deaths. The extent of underestimation varied according to the periods in which different criteria were used for the selection of the underlying cause. For example, in Oxford, in the latest period 1993-2003, underlying-cause-coded mortality identified only 37% of all death certificates with ulcerative colitis, 47% of Crohn's disease, between 62 and 68% for the different types of peptic ulcer and 66% of diverticular disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Studies of mortality for these diseases should take account of all certified causes as well as underlying-cause mortality. This is particularly important for analyses that go across periods of change to the rules for selecting the underlying cause of death.

Mortality in schizophrenia and schizoaffective disorder: an Olmsted County, Minnesota cohort: 1950-2005

INTRODUCTION

Increased mortality in people with schizophrenia, compared to the general population, has been consistently reported worldwide. This mortality has been attributed predominantly to "unnatural" deaths-suicide, accidents, and homicide. Recent studies have shown an increase in natural causes of death. Our objective is to compare the mortality of schizophrenic and schizoaffective subjects to the general US population.

METHODS

319 Olmsted County residents meeting DSM-IV-TR criteria for schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder seen at the Mayo Clinic between 1950 and 1980 were followed until February 2005 for a median of 23.5 years.

RESULTS

At the end of follow-up, 44% of patients were deceased. Mortality was significantly (p<0.001) increased compared to the Caucasian population in the US for persons of like age, gender, and calendar year of birth. The median survival following diagnosis was 36.2 years. Death certificate cited cause of death was cardiac (29%), cancer--including lung (19%), and pulmonary disease (17%). Concerningly, there was no association with the year of diagnosis to survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Tsuang and colleagues showed in 1975 that mortality in schizophrenics and later, those with schizoaffective disorder was significantly increased compared to the US general population. Thirty years later, with a demographically similar population, we have found the same pattern of increased mortality. In light of continued improvements in the general population's lifespan, the survival gap in schizophrenia/schizoaffective disorder appears to be increasing.

Proportion of injury deaths with unspecified external cause codes: a comparison of Australia, Sweden, Taiwan and the US

BACKGROUND

The proportion of injury deaths with unspecified external cause codes has been used as an indicator of the level of comprehensiveness and specificity of information on death certificates provided by certifiers.

OBJECTIVE

To compare the proportion of unspecified external cause codes across countries.

METHODS

Multiple-cause-of-death mortality data for people who died in 2001 due to external causes in Australia, Sweden, Taiwan and the USA were used for this international comparison study. The proportion of injury deaths coded as due to an unspecified external cause (International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision, ICD-10, chapter XX) to all injury deaths in each block was calculated.

RESULTS

Sweden (33%) had the highest proportion of use of the least specific code (ICD-10 code X59 exposure to unspecified factor), followed by Australia (17%), Taiwan (13%) and the USA (7%). More than two-thirds of the deceased for whom an ICD-10 code X59 was assigned in Sweden and Australia were those aged > or =65 years, and more than half of them had femoral fractures. The percentage of use of the unspecified codes within specific groups of external causes was relatively high for falls and unintentional drowning.

CONCLUSIONS

Caution should be used in examining the compensatory effects of the unspecified external event code (ICD-10 code X59) on specific external causes (especially falls) when making international comparisons. Efforts are needed to educate certifiers to report sufficient information for specific coding so as to provide more useful information for injury prevention.

Avoidable mortality by neighbourhood income in Canada: 25 years after the establishment of universal health insurance

AIM

To examine neighbourhood income differences in deaths amenable to medical care and public health over a 25-year period after the establishment of universal insurance for doctors and hospital services in Canada.

METHODS

Data for census metropolitan areas were obtained from the Canadian Mortality Database and population censuses for the years 1971, 1986, 1991 and 1996. Deaths amenable to medical care, amenable to public health, from ischaemic heart disease and from other causes were considered. Data on deaths were grouped into neighbourhood income quintiles on the basis of the census tract percentage of population below Canada's low-income cut-offs.

RESULTS

From 1971 to 1996, differences between the richest and poorest quintiles in age-standardised expected years of life lost amenable to medical care decreased 60% (p<0.001) in men and 78% (p<0.001) in women, those amenable to public health increased 0.7% (p = 0.94) in men and 20% (p = 0.55) in women, those lost from ischaemic heart disease decreased 58% in men and 38% in women, and from other causes decreased 15% in men and 9% in women. Changes in the age-standardised expected years of life lost difference for deaths amenable to medical care were significantly larger than those for deaths amenable to public health or other causes for both men and women (p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Reductions in rates of deaths amenable to medical care made the largest contribution to narrowing socioeconomic mortality disparities. Continuing disparities in mortality from causes amenable to public health suggest that public health initiatives have a potentially important, but yet un-realized, role in further reducing mortality disparities in Canada.