Longitudinal pathways of exclusive and polytobacco cigarette use among youth, young adults and adults in the USA: findings from the PATH Study Waves 1-3 (2013-2016)

Longitudinal Assessment of Association Between Tobacco Use and Tobacco Dependence Among Adults: Latent Class Analysis of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study Waves 1-4

INTRODUCTION

With increasing tobacco product varieties, understanding tobacco use (TU) profiles and their associations with tobacco dependence (TD) has also become increasingly challenging.

AIMS AND METHODS

We aimed to identify TU profiles and their associations with TD over time, and to identify subgroups with high risk of TD. We included 3463 adult recent tobacco users who had complete TU and TD data across waves 1-4 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) study. We used a composite index of TD and a summed TD score from an established 16-item TD measure. We applied a latent class analysis to identify TU profiles based on participants' usage of eight common tobacco product groups at each survey wave and to check the stability of the TU profiles over time. We then used generalized estimating equations regressions to evaluate the longitudinal TU-TD association, adjusting for potential confounders.

RESULTS

We identified three distinct TU profiles that remained consistent across four survey waves: Dominant cigarette users (62%-68%), poly users with high propensity of using traditional cigarettes, e-cigarettes, and cigars (24%-31%), and dominant smokeless product users (7%-9%). Covariate-adjusted models showed that TD was significantly lower among the poly users and the dominant smokeless users, compared to that among the dominant cigarette users.

CONCLUSIONS

Both TU profiles and their associations with TD were stable over time at the population level. Poly users and smokeless product users were consistently associated with lower TD than cigarette-dominant users, suggesting the need for tailored tobacco cessation interventions for users with different TU profiles.

IMPLICATIONS

The finding of consistent TU profiles across four survey waves extends the current literature in capturing TU patterns in an evolving tobacco product landscape. The finding of the overall higher level of TD among the cigarette-dominant users compared to the other TU latent profiles (the Cig+eCig+Cigar dominant poly users and the dominant smokeless product users) can help identify high-risk groups for potential interventions. Our application of innovative statistical methods to high-quality longitudinal data from the PATH study helps improve the understanding of the dynamic TU-TD relationship over time.

National longitudinal tobacco product discontinuation rates among US youth from the PATH Study: 2013-2019 (waves 1-5)

OBJECTIVE

Determine longitudinal tobacco product discontinuation rates among youth (ages 12-17 years) in the USA between 2013 and 2019.

METHODS

The Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study, a nationally representative, longitudinal cohort study, was used to determine annual/biennial rates of tobacco product discontinuation behaviours among youth across 2013-2019: (1) discontinuing product use (transition from past 30-day use to no past 30-day use), (2) attempting to quit product use and (3) discontinuing product use among those who attempted to quit. Discontinuing use was evaluated separately for cigarettes, electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS), cigars, hookah, smokeless tobacco and any tobacco. Attempting to quit and discontinuing use among those who attempted were each evaluated for cigarettes and ENDS. Generalised estimating equations were used to evaluate linear and non-linear trends in rates across the study period.

RESULTS

Between 2013 and 2019, biennial rates of discontinuing tobacco product use among youth increased for cigarettes from 29% to 40%, increased for smokeless tobacco from 39% to 60%, and decreased for ENDS from 53% to 27%. By 2018/2019, rates of discontinuing use among attempters were 30% for those who used ENDS and 30% for those who smoked cigarettes.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings show decreasing rates of discontinuing ENDS use among youth in the USA alongside the changing ENDS marketplace and increasing rates of discontinuing cigarette smoking and smokeless tobacco use. Findings will serve as benchmarks against which future tobacco product discontinuation rates can be compared with evaluating impacts of subsequent tobacco regulatory policies, ENDS product development and public education campaigns.

Sex differences in tobacco use, attempts to quit smoking, and cessation among dual users of cigarettes and e-cigarettes: Longitudinal findings from the US Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study

SIGNIFICANCE

A growing number of adults use more than one tobacco product, with dual use of cigarettes and e-cigarettes being the most common combination. Monitoring sex disparities in tobacco use is a public health priority. However, little is known regarding whether dual users differ by sex.

METHODS

Data came from Waves 4-6 (12/2016-11/2021) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study, a US nationally-representative longitudinal survey. This analysis included current adult dual users of cigarettes and e-cigarettes. We used weighted generalized estimating equations to assess the association between sex and (1) making a cigarette quit attempt (n = 1882 observations from n = 1526 individuals) and (2) smoking cessation (n = 2081 observations from n = 1688 individuals) across two wave pairs, adjusting for age, education, ethnicity, time-to-first cigarette after waking, and e-cigarette use frequency.

RESULTS

Among US dual users, 14.1% (95% Confidence Intervals [Cl] = 11.9-16.4) of females and 23.4% (20.0-26.9) of males were young adults (aged 18-24), 11.7% (9.2-14.2) of females and 14.4% (11.6-17.2) of males had

CONCLUSION

US females who dual use e-cigarettes and cigarettes were more likely to attempt to quit smoking, but not more likely to succeed at quitting, than males.

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Key Words

• Cigarette smoking
• Cohort studies
• Dual use
• E-cigarette
• Electronic nicotine delivery systems
• Nicotine dependence
• Quit attempt
• Sex differences
• Smoking cessation

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Affiliation(s)

Elias M Klemperer Vermont Center on Behavior & Health, Department of Psychiatry, University of Vermont, United States of America.
Loren Kock Vermont Center on Behavior & Health, Department of Psychiatry, University of Vermont, United States of America
Marc Jerome P Feinstein Vermont Center on Behavior & Health, Department of Psychiatry, University of Vermont, United States of America
Sulamunn R M Coleman Vermont Center on Behavior & Health, Department of Psychiatry, University of Vermont, United States of America
Diann E Gaalema Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, University of Texas Medical Branch, United States of America
Stephen T Higgins Vermont Center on Behavior & Health, Department of Psychiatry, University of Vermont, United States of America

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Cigarette and ENDS dual use longitudinal transitions among adults in the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study, Waves 4-5 (2016-2019)

Introduction

The study assessed longitudinal transitions among adult (18 and older) past 30-day daily and non-daily dual users of cigarettes and electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS).

Methods

Using data from Wave 4 (W4; 2016/17) and Wave 5 (W5; 2018/19) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study, a nationally representative, longitudinal cohort study of US adults, multivariable regressions were conducted among W4 dual users of cigarettes and ENDS to examine past 30-day cigarette smoking at W5. The study also analyzed changes in frequency of past 30-day smoking and cigarettes smoked per day between W4 and W5, stratified by W4/W5 daily/non-daily ENDS use among W4 daily and non-daily cigarette smokers.

Results

Among W4 dual users, those smoking daily and using ENDS non-daily had higher odds of daily cigarette smoking at W5 than daily users of both products (AOR: 2.32, 95 % CI: 1.38-3.90). W4 daily smokers who used ENDS daily at Wave 5 smoked cigarettes on fewer days at Wave 5 than W4 daily smokers who were either daily ENDS users at Wave 4 (B = -4.59; SE = 1.43, p < 0.01) or non-daily ENDS users at Wave 4 (B = -4.55; SE = 1.24, p < 0.001). Among W4 non-daily cigarette smokers, W4 non-daily ENDS users who used daily at W5 smoked cigarettes on fewer days (B = -4.04, SE = 1.82) at W5 than those who were non-daily ENDS users at W4 and W5.

Conclusions

Findings highlight the importance of frequency of ENDS use in reducing cigarette smoking and could inform smoking cessation interventions among daily cigarette smokers.

Respiratory symptoms and outcomes among cigar smokers: findings from the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) study waves 2-5 (2014-2019)

BACKGROUND

The mechanisms by which cigarette smoking increases the risk of respiratory disease have been studied. However, less is known about risks of respiratory symptoms and outcomes associated with smoking cigars, and risks by cigar types have not been previously explored. The aim of this study was to examine associations between cigar use, including traditional cigars, cigarillos, filtered cigars, and dual cigar and cigarette use, and functionally important respiratory symptoms (FIRS), lifetime asthma diagnosis, uncontrolled asthma, and new cases of FIRS.

METHODS

Data from Waves 2-5 (2014-19) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study, a nationally representative longitudinal study, were analyzed in two ways. For cross-sectional analysis, the analytic sample included adults 18 and older at each wave, resulting in 44,040 observations. Separately, longitudinal analyses were assessed among adults 18 and older at Wave 2, resulting in 7,930 individuals. Both analyses excluded adults with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) or non-asthma respiratory disease.

RESULTS

Current established cigarillo smokers had higher odds of having FIRS (Adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 1.72; 95% CI: 1.08, 2.74) compared to never smokers of cigarillos and cigarettes, after adjusting for covariates. Current established filtered cigar smokers had higher odds of asthma diagnosis (AOR: 1.35; 95% CI: 1.10, 1.66) while current established dual smokers of filtered cigars and cigarettes had higher odds of uncontrolled asthma (AOR: 5.13; 95% CI: 1.75, 15.02) compared to never smokers of filtered cigars or cigarettes. Both current established cigar smokers and current established dual smokers of cigarettes and cigars had higher odds of new FIRS compared to never cigar or cigarette smokers (AORs: 1.62; 95% CI: 1.02, 2.60 for exclusive cigars and 2.55; 95% CI 1.57, 4.14 for dual smokers).

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides evidence that cigar smokers or dual smokers of cigars and cigarettes have greater odds of FIRS, asthma, and uncontrolled asthma and that new incidence of FIRS is higher among any cigar smokers compared to never cigar or cigarette smokers. Understanding health impacts associated with cigar use provides information for supporting policy development, as well as for designing clinical interventions focused on smoking cessation for cigars.

National longitudinal tobacco product cessation rates among US adults from the PATH Study: 2013-2019 (waves 1-5)

OBJECTIVE

To report on longitudinal tobacco product cessation rates, by product type, among adults (ages 18+ years) in the USA between 2013 and 2019.

METHODS

The Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study, a nationally representative, longitudinal cohort study was used to report on annual and biennial rates of the following three cessation behaviours across 2013-2019: (1) discontinuing tobacco product use (ie, transition from past 30-day use to no past 30-day use), (2) attempting to quit tobacco product use and (3) quitting tobacco product use among those who attempted to quit. Each cessation behaviour was evaluated separately for cigarettes, electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS), cigars, hookah and smokeless tobacco. Generalised estimating equations were used to evaluate linear and nonlinear trends in cessation rates across the study period.

RESULTS

Between 2013 and 2019, rates of discontinuing cigarette smoking among adults in the USA statistically increased from 16% to 18%, though these were consistently lower than rates of discontinuing use of other tobacco products. Similarly, quit attempt rates and rates of quitting among attempters increased for cigarette smokers. However, rates of discontinuing ENDS use sharply declined across the study period, from 62% to 44%.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings show that tobacco product cessation rates have been changing in recent years in the USA alongside the changing tobacco product marketplace and regulatory environment, though rates of discontinuing cigarette smoking remain relatively low. Findings can serve as a benchmark against which future cessation rates can be compared to evaluate the impacts of future tobacco regulatory policies.

Relationship Between Tobacco Product Use and Health-Related Quality of Life Among Individuals With COPD in Waves 1-5 (2013-2019) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study

Introduction

We examined the association between tobacco product use and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) among individuals with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in Waves 1-5 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study.

Methods

Adults ≥40 years with an ever COPD diagnosis were included in cross-sectional (Wave 5) and longitudinal (Waves 1 to 5) analyses. Tobacco use included 13 mutually exclusive categories of past 30-day (P30D) single use and polyuse with P30D exclusive cigarette use and ≥5-year cigarette cessation as reference groups. Multivariable linear regression and generalized estimating equations (GEE) were used to examine the association between tobacco use and HRQoL as measured by the Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS) Global-10 questionnaire.

Results

Of 1670 adults, 79.4% ever used cigarettes; mean (standard error [SE]) pack years was 30.9 (1.1). In cross-sectional analysis, P30D exclusive cigarette use, and e-cigarette/cigarette dual use were associated with worse HRQoL compared to ≥5-year cigarette cessation. Compared to P30D exclusive cigarette use, never tobacco use and ≥5-year cigarette cessation were associated with better HRQoL, while e-cigarette/cigarette dual use had worse HRQoL. Longitudinally (n=686), e-cigarette/cigarette dual use was associated with worsening HRQoL compared to both reference groups. Only never tobacco use was associated with higher HRQoL over time compared to P30D exclusive cigarette use.

Conclusions

E-cigarette/cigarette dual use was associated with worse HRQoL compared to ≥5-year cigarette cessation and exclusive cigarette use. Never use and ≥5-year cigarette cessation were the only categories associated with higher HRQoL compared to exclusive cigarette use. Findings highlight the importance of complete smoking cessation for individuals with COPD.

Adult smokers' Complete Switching Away from Cigarettes at 6, 9, and 12 Months after Initially Purchasing a JUUL e-Cigarette

Background: Electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) have the potential to benefit public health if smokers completely switch from cigarettes to ENDS. Methods: A cohort of adult smokers (age ≥ 21) who purchased a JUUL Starter Kit was followed for 12 months after the initial purchase. We defined "switching" as past-30-day abstinence from smoking (even if JUUL use had stopped), and analyzed factors associated with achievement and maintenance of self-reported repeated point-prevalence switching (RPPS) at three follow-ups, i.e., no past-30-day smoking at months 6, 9, and 12. Results: RPPS was reported by 21.6% of the 12,537 evaluable smokers. Smokers with lighter smoking history and lower cigarette dependence at baseline were more likely to report RPPS. RPPS was also associated with daily use of JUUL (Month-3: OR = 2.32, 95% CI = 2.02-2.68; Month-6: OR = 1.73, 95% CI = 1.42-2.10), and with greater subjective reinforcing effects from JUUL use (assessed by the mCEQ, Month-3: OR = 1.46, 95% CI = 1.38-1.56; Month-6: OR = 1.11; 95% CI = 1.02-1.20). Even among smokers who did not meet the criteria of RPPS (i.e., who smoked at least once), 35.5% reported past 30-day point-prevalence switching on at least one follow-up, and their cigarette consumption was substantially reduced compared to baseline. Conclusions: Approximately one-fifth of adult smokers reported 30-day point-prevalence abstinence at 6, 9, and 12 months after purchasing JUUL. Greater use of JUUL and stronger subjective reinforcing effects were associated with nonsmoking, validating the potential for ENDS to substitute for smoking, with potential for positive impacts on individual and population health.

Longitudinal transitions in e-cigarette and cigarette use among US adults: prospective cohort study

Background

To support tobacco control efforts, this study sought to characterize longitudinal transitions in use of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) and cigarettes.

Methods

Participants were nationally representative samples of 53,729 US adults from Waves 3-5 (2015-2019) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study. We examined behavioral transitions (initiation, relapse, progression, and cessation) in ENDS and cigarette use across waves. Weighted generalized estimating equation models adjusted for sociodemographic variables.

Findings

Of never ENDS users at baseline, an estimated 1.7% reported initiating ENDS use by follow-up. Of former ENDS users, an estimated 12.1% relapsed into ENDS use. Of periodic ENDS users at baseline, 13% progressed to established ENDS use. Of baseline current ENDS users, 46.3% discontinued ENDS use. The corresponding transitions for cigarette smoking were 1.6% (initiation), 4.8% (relapse), 21.1% (progression), and 14% (discontinuation). Adults aged 18-24 (vs. older age), Hispanics (vs. non-Hispanic white), and past 12-month cannabis users were more likely to initiate ENDS or cigarettes (all p < 0.05). Having any internalizing mental health symptoms increased the odds of ENDS initiation, while externalizing symptoms increased the odds of cigarette initiation. Those who perceived nicotine as very harmful (vs. none/low harm) were more likely to discontinue ENDS. Current cigarette users (vs. non-users) at baseline were more likely to initiate, relapse, or discontinue ENDS (all p < 0.05) and vice versa.

Interpretation

We observed high changeability in ENDS and cigarette use among US adults over time. In absolute terms, ENDS use grew, while smoking fell. Tobacco control programs should focus on priority populations, including young adults and people with internalizing and externalizing mental health symptoms.

Funding

National Institutes of Health, R01-CA246606-01A1, R01-DA048390.

Recency measures matter: Variability in reported last use of tobacco and marijuana products among a nationally representative study of U.S. young adults

INTRODUCTION

Current use of tobacco and marijuana products is largely defined as use within the past 30-days or more recently. These products are not used in the same manner, frequency, or context especially among young adults who are increasingly at risk for poly-product use. The purpose of this study was to examine patterns of most recent product use across select tobacco and marijuana products.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data used in this study come from a cross-sectional survey conducted among a nationally representative sample of young adults ages 18-34 (n = 1,189) in the U.S. from October-November 2020. Respondents were asked about past product and most recent use of select tobacco/nicotine products (cigarettes, little filtered cigars and cigarillos, large cigars, e-cigarettes, hookah/water pipes) and marijuana products (blunts, e-cigarettes with marijuana, and other products with marijuana).

RESULTS

A high proportion of young adults reported having used at least one tobacco (79.6%) or marijuana (68.6%) products. There is variability in the distribution of most recent use across different tobacco and marijuana users even within the past 3 to past 6 months where nearly one in five users of any product report last use. The average number of tobacco/nicotine products used as well as concurrent marijuana use were lowest when looking at those whose most recent use was within the past 30-days. As the measures of most recent use became more broad, the number of tobacco/nicotine products used increased as did the prevalence of concurrent marijuana use which extended through the past 6-months.

CONCLUSION

Measures of current use may need to be expanded beyond the past 30-days to include through the past 6-months to better encapsulate usage patterns when considering poly-tobacco and marijuana co-use.

Non-cigarette combustible tobacco use and its associations with subsequent cessation of smoking among daily cigarette smokers: findings from the International Tobacco Control Four Country Smoking and Vaping Surveys (2016-20)

AIMS

To examine whether polyuse of cigarettes and other smoked products (polysmoking) is predictive of quit attempts and quit success.

DESIGN

A prospective multi-country cohort design.

SETTING

Australia, Canada, England and the United States.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 3983 adult daily cigarette smokers were surveyed in 2016 (wave 1 of data collection) and were re-contacted in 2018 (wave 2) (i.e. waves 1-2 cohort) in the International Tobacco Control Four Country Smoking and Vaping (ITC 4CV) surveys; and 3736 smokers were surveyed in 2018 and re-contacted in 2020 (wave 3) (i.e. waves 2-3 cohort).

MEASUREMENTS

Participants were asked about their cigarette smoking and use of cigars, cigarillos, pipes and waterpipes. Outcomes were quit attempts between two survey waves and success, defined as having quit smoking all the combustible tobacco at the subsequent survey for 1 month or more.

FINDINGS

Levels of polysmoking were 12.7% in the waves 1-2 cohort and 10.5% for the waves 2-3 cohort. Compared with cigarette-only smokers, polysmokers were more likely to attempt to quit between waves 1 and 2 [54.9 versus 42.7%, adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.37, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.08-1.74, P < 0.01], but not between waves 2 and 3 (43.8 versus 40.1%, aOR = 0.94, 95% CI = 0.72-1.22). Polysmoking predicted reduced likelihood of success in both cohorts among attempters and the overall samples. Between waves 2 and 3 there were significantly more transitions to non-daily smoking among the polysmokers (12.4 versus 5.3%, χ2  = 40.4, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

There is a consistent association between polysmoking (use of cigarettes together with other smoked products) and reduced quit success for combustible tobacco, but it is probably due to increased likelihood of transitioning to non-daily use rather than complete cessation.

Association of tobacco product use with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) prevalence and incidence in Waves 1 through 5 (2013-2019) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study

BACKGROUND

We examined the association of non-cigarette tobacco use on chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) risk in the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study.

METHODS

There were 13,752 participants ≥ 40 years with Wave 1 (W1) data for prevalence analyses, including 6945 adults without COPD for incidence analyses; W1-5 (2013-2019) data were analyzed. W1 tobacco use was modeled as 12 mutually-exclusive categories of past 30-day (P30D) single and polyuse, with two reference categories (current exclusive cigarette and never tobacco). Prevalence and incidence ratios of self-reported physician-diagnosed COPD were estimated using weighted multivariable Poisson regression.

RESULTS

W1 mean (SE) age was 58.1(0.1) years; mean cigarette pack-years was similar for all categories involving cigarettes and exclusive use of e-cigarettes (all > 20), greater than exclusive cigar users (< 10); and COPD prevalence was 7.7%. Compared to P30D cigarette use, never tobacco, former tobacco, and cigar use were associated with lower COPD prevalence (RR = 0.33, (95% confidence interval-CI) [0.26, 0.42]; RR = 0.57, CI [0.47, 0.70]; RR = 0.46, CI [0.28, 0.76], respectively); compared to never tobacco use, all categories except cigar and smokeless tobacco use were associated with higher COPD prevalence (RR former = 1.72, CI [1.33, 2.23]; RR cigarette = 3.00, CI [2.37, 3.80]; RR e-cigarette = 2.22, CI [1.44, 3.42]; RR cigarette + e-cigarette = 3.10, CI [2.39, 4.02]; RR polycombusted = 3.37, CI [2.44, 4.65]; RR polycombusted plus noncombusted = 2.75, CI]1.99, 3.81]). COPD incidence from W2-5 was 5.8%. Never and former tobacco users had lower COPD risk compared to current cigarette smokers (RR = 0.52, CI [0.35, 0.77]; RR = 0.47, CI [0.32, 0.70], respectively). Compared to never use, cigarette, smokeless, cigarette plus e-cigarette, and polycombusted tobacco use were associated with higher COPD incidence (RR = 1.92, CI [1.29, 2.86]; RR = 2.08, CI [1.07, 4.03]; RR = 1.99, CI [1.29, 3.07]; RR = 2.59, CI [1.60, 4.21], respectively); exclusive use of e-cigarettes was not (RR = 1.36, CI [0.55, 3.39]).

CONCLUSIONS

E-cigarettes and all use categories involving cigarettes were associated with higher COPD prevalence compared to never use, reflecting, in part, the high burden of cigarette exposure in these groups. Cigarette-but not exclusive e-cigarette-use was also strongly associated with higher COPD incidence. Compared to cigarette use, only quitting tobacco was protective against COPD development.

Transitions between tobacco products: Correlates of changes in cigarette smoking and e-cigarette use among exclusive adult smokers and dual users in Mexico

This study examined transitions in tobacco products use among Mexican smokers and dual users. Data were analyzed from exclusive smokers (n = 2,946) and dual users (n = 1,643) recruited from an online consumer research panel and surveyed every-four months from November 2018 to April 2021. For exclusive smokers, estimated transitions were (time "t + 1" four months after prior survey): a) remain as exclusive smokers; b) dual use; c) exclusive e-cigarette use or quit both products. Among dual users, transitions analyzed were: a) remain as dual user; b) exclusive smoker; c) exclusive e-cigarette user or quit both products. Multinomial models regressed transitions at "t + 1" on time "t" for control variables. Most exclusive smokers (81%) remained as such, 12.6% transitioned to dual use, 2.3% to exclusive e-cigarette use, and 4% quitted both products. Exclusive smokers were more likely to transition to dual use if they recently attempted to quit (AOR = 1.45) or had partners/family or friends who used e-cigarettes (AOR = 2.47 & 2.56 respectively). Most dual users (74.8%) remained as dual users, 20.4% transitioned to exclusive smoking, 1.6% transitioned to exclusive e-cigarette use, and 3.2% quitted both products. Dual users were more likely to transition to exclusive smoking if they had lower educational attainment, recently attempted to quit e-cigarettes (AOR = 1.70). Having friends who use e-cigarettes (AOR = 0.29) and higher smoking dependence (AOR = 0.55) were associated with a lower likelihood of quitting. Recent quit attempts and e-cigarette use among close social network members may explain the short-term transitions, though longer follow-up is needed to assess sustained smoking cessation.

Longitudinal associations between flavored tobacco use and tobacco product cessation in a national sample of adults

Use of flavored tobacco has been associated with lower likelihood of short-term abstinence from tobacco. It is unknown whether longer-term associations exist, particularly for a variety of products and specific flavor categories. This study used adult survey data from the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study (2013-2018). We tested associations of past 30-day tobacco product use at wave 2 using both a 2-category any flavor versus unflavored variable and 4-category specific flavor (menthol/mint, sweet, and both menthol/mint and sweet) versus unflavored variable with past 12-month cessation from the same product two years later at wave 4. Separate models were run for each product (combustible cigarettes, cigars, hookah, e-cigarettes, and smokeless), adjusting for wave 1 sociodemographic characteristics. For all five products, past 30-day use of any flavored (versus unflavored) product at wave 2 was associated with reduced likelihood of same-product cessation at wave 4. Most specific flavor categories were associated with reduced odds of same-product cessation across all products. Any flavor use was also associated with reduced likelihood of longer-term cessation (i.e., past 24-months at both waves 3 and 4) and cessation from all five tobacco products in several analyses. Exploratory moderation results indicated that the association between e-cigarette flavor use and lower likelihood of cessation was stronger for young adults (18-24) versus older adults (25+). Current use of flavored tobacco products is associated with lower likelihood of product cessation. Flavored tobacco products warrant consideration in regulatory policy to reduce the adverse public health impact of tobacco use.

Nicotine dependence of cigarette and heated tobacco users in Japan, 2019: a cross-sectional analysis of the JASTIS Study

OBJECTIVES

Japan is currently the biggest market of heated tobacco products (HTPs) in the world. Little is known about nicotine dependence among HTP users. Thus, the objective was to assess the association of type of tobacco use and time-to-first-use, a marker of nicotine dependence.

METHODS

A cross-sectional analysis of the 2019 data from an internet cohort study was conducted. The analytical sample consisted of 2147 current (≥1 day use in the past 30 days) HTP and/or conventional cigarette users, aged 25+ years. Marginal structural binomial regression was used to estimate nicotine dependence prevalence ratios (PRs) for each category of tobacco use (exclusive daily cigarette, exclusive HTP (≥1 day), dual HTP+daily cigarette, dual HTP+non-daily cigarette), relative to exclusive, non-daily cigarette smoking.

RESULTS

Using a 5 min cut-off for time-to-first-use, the prevalence of nicotine dependence was higher among dual users of HTP and daily cigarettes (PR=1.38; 95% CI: 1.05 to 1.82) and exclusive, daily cigarette users (PR=1.48; 95% CI: 1.15 to 1.91), relative to exclusive, non-daily cigarette users. However, nicotine dependence among exclusive HTP users, and dual HTP+non-daily cigarette users, did not differ from that of exclusive, non-daily cigarette users. When using 15 and 30 min cut-offs, all types of users, including exclusive HTP, had higher levels of nicotine dependence relative to exclusive, non-daily cigarette users.

CONCLUSIONS

Regardless of HTP use, daily cigarette users had higher prevalence of nicotine dependence compared with non-daily cigarette users. Exclusive HTP users had similar (or potentially higher) dependence compared with exclusive, non-daily cigarette users. Longitudinal studies are needed to interrogate the public health implications of growing HTP use worldwide.

Sex and Sexual Identity Differences in Poly-tobacco Use and Psychological Distress in U.S. Adults: Results From the National Health Interview Survey

INTRODUCTION

Poly-tobacco use (PTU), or the concomitant use of two or more nicotine and tobacco products, are a growing public health concern. Adults reporting increased psychological distress (PD) experience profound nicotine and tobacco health-related disparities. Sexual minority (SM) adults report more PTU and higher levels of PD than heterosexuals, yet little is known about patterns of nicotine and tobacco use and its relationship to PD in SM populations.

AIMS AND METHODS

The purpose of this study was to investigate sexual identity differences in PD and PTU. Data were drawn from the 2016-2018 National Health Interview Survey (N = 83 017), an annual cross-sectional survey of a nationally representative sample of U.S. adults. PD was assessed using the Kessler Psychological Distress Scale (K6). We fit sex-stratified, weighted, adjusted logistic models to compare PTU and PD by sexual identity.

RESULTS

PTU was more prevalent in adults with higher K6 scores. Female adults and SM adults had significantly higher K6 scores and were significantly more likely to experience serious PD when compared to their male and heterosexual counterparts.

CONCLUSIONS

The current study provides a snapshot of trends in PTU in relation to PD, gender, and sexual identity. Findings suggest higher rates of both PD and PTU in SM adults. Further research examining the mechanisms underlying this disparity is critical to the development of effective intervention and prevention strategies.

IMPLICATIONS

Little is known about sex and sexual identity differences in the relations between patterns of tobacco product use and PD. This study is the first to examine the effect of gender and sexual identity on both PD and PTU. SMs reported higher rates of PD and were more likely to be poly-tobacco users. As new ways of engaging nicotine/tobacco continue to proliferate, health risks will endure especially for marginalized populations. An increased understanding of the psychological and social correlates of PTU in SMs is warranted.

Changes in cigarette and e-cigarette use among US young adults from before to during the COVID-19 pandemic: News exposure and risk perceptions as potential predictors

INTRODUCTION

COVID-19 impacted cigarette and e-cigarette use behaviors among some individuals. This study examined COVID-19 factors and prior substance use as predictors of cigarette and e-cigarette cessation and initiation among US young adults from before to during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

We analyzed data from Wave 3 (Sept-Dec 2019) and Wave 5 (Sept-Dec 2020) of a 2-year, 5-wave longitudinal study of young adults across six US metropolitan areas. We examined COVID-19 news exposure, perceived smoking and e-cigarette use risk, and prior substance use, as predictors of cigarette and e-cigarette cessation and initiation, respectively.

RESULTS

Of W3 cigarette users (n=516), 37.8% (n=195) quit cigarettes at W5; predictors of cessation included younger age, fewer days of W3 past-month cigarette use, and no W3 e-cigarette use. Of W3 e-cigarette users (n=687), 38.7% (n=266) quit e-cigarettes at W5; predictors included greater COVID-19 news exposure, fewer days of W3 past-month e-cigarette use, and no W3 cigarette use. Of W3 cigarette non-users (n=1693), 5.0% (n=85) initiated cigarettes at W5; predictors of initiation included younger age, lower perceived smoking risk, lifetime cigarette and e-cigarette use, and W3 e-cigarette use. Of W3 e-cigarette non-users (n=1522), 6.3% (n=96) initiated e-cigarettes at W5; predictors included younger age, less news exposure, lifetime cigarette and e-cigarette use, and W3 cigarette use.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings underscore the need to address cigarette and e-cigarette co-use and related risk perceptions in prevention and cessation interventions.

Characterizing tobacco and marijuana use among youth combustible tobacco users experiencing homelessness - considering product type, brand, flavor, frequency, and higher-risk use patterns and predictors

BACKGROUND

Cigarette smoking is three times more prevalent among youth experiencing homelessness compared with the general population. Co-use of tobacco and marijuana is also common. The aim of this study is to characterize tobacco and marijuana use among youth experiencing homelessness who use combustible tobacco in a Midwestern city to inform smoking cessation intervention.

METHODS

This study included 96 youth (ages 14-24 years; 52% male, 39% female, 5% transgender/non-binary) attending a homeless drop-in center who had used at least one combustible tobacco product in the past week. We assessed past-month use of tobacco products and marijuana, other product use characteristics (e.g., frequency, brand and flavor), and psychosocial predictors of more frequent (i.e., daily) use of combustible tobacco and marijuana.

RESULTS

Most youth experiencing homelessness with past-week combustible tobacco use had used cigarettes (n = 85, 88.5%), cigars (n = 89, 92.7%), and marijuana (n = 82, 85.4%) in the past month. One-third (n = 34) used electronic vapor products (EVPs), 19.8% (n = 19) smoked hookah, and 11.5% (n = 11) used smokeless tobacco (ST). Most marijuana users co-administered with tobacco (n = 67, 69.8%). Daily combustible tobacco smoking was associated with having a child and smoking out of boredom/habit. Daily marijuana use was associated with using substances to cope with one's housing situation. Newport (n = 66, 72.5%) and Black & Mild (n = 48, 51.1%) were the most popular brands of cigarettes and cigars among ever users. Most non-combustible tobacco ever users reported not having a usual brand (EVPs: n = 51, 73.9%; ST: n = 16, 57.1%). Cigar smokers reported the most varied selection of flavors.

CONCLUSIONS

Young combustible tobacco users experiencing homelessness engage in high-risk use patterns, including poly-tobacco use, co-use of tobacco with marijuana, and frequent combustible product use. Interventions that consider the full context of tobacco and marijuana use are needed to support smoking cessation in this population.

Electronic nicotine delivery systems use predicts transitions in cigarette smoking among young adults

BACKGROUND

Although cigarette smoking during young adulthood is characterized by volatility, few studies examine if use of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) impacts transitions in cigarette use behaviors across this developmental period. The purpose of this longitudinal study was to examine the role of ENDS use on three transitions in cigarette smoking among young adults; initiation, desistance, and re-uptake.

METHODS

Participants were 5029 18-29-year-olds (64.2% female) enrolled in one of 24 Texas colleges at baseline and involved in an eight-wave, 4.5-year study. A multi-state, continuous time Markov model was used to assess the role of current/past 30-day and ever ENDS use on three transitions, spanning at least six months 1) never to current smoking (initiation); 2) current to non-current smoking (desistance); and 3) non-current to current smoking (re-uptake). The model also contained time-invariant socio-demographic, and time-varying intrapersonal (other tobacco use, nicotine dependence, sensation seeking, depressive symptoms) and interpersonal (peer cigarette use) covariates.

RESULTS

Both current and ever ENDS use increased the probability of transitioning from never to current cigarette use (initiation) and decreased the probability of transitioning from current to non-current use (desistance). Current, but not ever, ENDS use also increased the probability of transitioning from non-current to current use (re-uptake). Adjustment for socio-demographic, intrapersonal, and interpersonal covariates did not alter these findings.

DISCUSSION

ENDS use in young adulthood increases the risk for cigarette smoking behaviors across the continuum of uptake and progression. Prevention and cessation efforts targeting both ENDS and cigarette use during young adulthood are needed.

Awareness, trial and use of heated tobacco products among adult cigarette smokers and e-cigarette users: findings from the 2018 ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate heated tobacco product (HTP) awareness, trial and current use among adult cigarette smokers and vaping product users in four countries with varying regulations governing HTP sales.

DESIGN

Data came from Wave 2 of the ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey, collected from February to July 2018. Respondents were current and former smokers and/or users of vaping products (18 years or older) from Canada (CA; n=3778), England (EN; n=4848), the USA (US; n=2846) and Australia (AU; n=1515). At the time of the survey, only Canada and England permitted the sale of contemporary HTPs (eg, IQOS).

RESULTS

Overall, 30.2% of respondents reported being aware of HTPs (CA=30.4%; EN=31.0%; US=30.2%; AU=27.4%; p=0.346), 2.4% had ever tried HTPs (CA=3.3%; EN=2.4%; US=2.0%; AU=0.9%; p=0.001) and 0.9% currently used HTPs at least monthly (CA=0.8%; EN=1.2%; US=0.7%; AU=0.2%; p<0.001). Trial and current use were higher among those who concurrently smoked and vaped (at least monthly) versus other nicotine use categories (trial: 10.9% v. 1.2%-2.0%, p<0.001; current use: 8.4% v. 0.1%-1.0%, p<0.001). In multivariable analyses, HTP awareness did not differ across countries, whereas odds of trial and current use were lower where HTPs were unavailable. Odds of HTP trial did not differ by regulatory environment when restricting analysis to HTP-aware concurrent smokers-vapers.

CONCLUSION

Approximately one third of respondents were aware of HTPs, even in the USA and Australia, where contemporary HTPs were not yet on the market. Trial and use were uncommon, except among concurrent smokers-vapers. Restrictions on availability may have limited HTP use generally, but less so for concurrent smokers-vapers.

Cigar Use Progression Among New Cigar Initiators: A Two-Part Growth Curve Analysis Among a Youth and Young Adult Cohort

INTRODUCTION

Youth and young adults (YYAs) are at high risk of cigar use. This study's objective was to examine progression and sociodemographic differences in current cigar use and frequency among new cigar initiators.

AIMS AND METHODS

We conducted a two-part latent growth model among a nationally representative cohort of cigar initiators (aged 15-25) to examine 24-month trajectories of current cigar use and frequency (n = 1483). The cohort was recruited via address-based sampling with online data collection from 2014 to 2019 and surveyed approximately every 6 months.

RESULTS

The unconditional odds of current cigar use (ie, past 30-day use) within 6 months of initiation was 0.72 (95% confidence interval: 0.63, 0.82), corresponding to a probability of 42%. The odds of current use among recent cigar initiates declined 6 months after initiation and was followed by a stabilization in use over time. Among continued users, frequency (# days used in past 30 days) increased linearly over time but remained low (3.47 days/months at 24 months). Younger individuals, non-Hispanic African Americans, those with lower subjective financial status, and current users of cigarettes, other tobacco products and/or marijuana were at highest risk within 6 months of initiation. Males, younger users, and current cigarette smokers had the highest risk for cigar progression over time.

CONCLUSIONS

This study is the first to examine longitudinal cigar use patterns among YYA cigar initiators. Findings emphasize the need for research across the cigar use spectrum and the importance of interventions targeted by age, stage of use, cigarette, other tobacco, and marijuana use and key sociodemographics to interrupt use pathways.

IMPLICATIONS

This study is the first to examine progression of cigar use among YYAs who have newly initiated cigars. Results show a high probability of current cigar use within 6 months of initiation followed by a rapid decline and stabilization over time. Frequency increases among those who continue using cigars. Males, younger users, and current cigarette smokers had the highest risk for cigar progression over time. Findings emphasize the need for targeting interventions by age, stage of use, cigarette, other tobacco, and marijuana use and key sociodemographics to interrupt use pathways.

Latent class analysis of use frequencies for multiple tobacco products in US adults

A persistent challenge is characterizing patterns of tobacco use in terms of product combinations and frequency. Using Wave 4 (2016-17) Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study adult data, we conducted latent class analyses (LCA) of past 30-day frequency of use for 9 tobacco products. One-step LCA with joint multinomial logistic regression models compared sociodemographic factors between users (n = 13,716) and non-users (n = 17,457), and between latent classes of users. We accounted for survey design and weights. Our analyses identified 6 classes: in addition to non-users (C0: 75.7%), we found 5 distinct latent classes of users: daily exclusive cigarette users (C1: 15.5%); occasional cigarette and polytobacco users (C2: 3.8%); frequent e-product and occasional cigarette users (C3: 2.2%); daily smokeless tobacco (SLT) and infrequent cigarette users (C4: 2.0%); and occasional cigar users (C5: 0.8%). Compared to C1: C2 and C3 had higher odds of being male (versus female), younger (especially 18-24 versus 55 years), and having higher education; C2 had higher, while C3 and C4 had lower, odds of being a racial/ethnic minority (versus Non-Hispanic White); C4 and C5 had much higher odds of being male (versus female) and heterosexual (versus sexual minority) and having higher income; and C5 had higher odds of college or more education. We identified three classes of daily or frequent users of a primary product (cigarettes, SLT or e-products) and two classes of occasional users (cigarettes, cigars and polytobacco). Sociodemographic differences in class membership may influence tobacco-related health disparities associated with specific patterns of use.

Responses to reduced nicotine cigarette marketing features: a systematic review

OBJECTIVE

To systematically review the literature regarding responses to commercial and public health marketing features for reduced nicotine cigarettes (RNCs) to anticipate potential industry and regulatory actions should an RNC product standard be issued.

DATA SOURCES

We searched PubMed for English-language articles using several keywords for reduced nicotine products, cigarettes and marketing features published through 2020.

STUDY SELECTION

Of 4092 records, 26 studies were retained for review that met criteria focusing on responses to RNC marketing features.

DATA EXTRACTION

Search terms created by the research team were used for review and included independent extraction and coding by two reviewers. Coding was categorised using study design terminology, commercial and public health features in tobacco regulatory science, and their association with individual responses outlined by several message processing outcomes.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Most studies focused on current cigarette smokers and were cross-sectional. Reactions to RNCs and attitudes and beliefs were the most common outcomes measured. For commercial features, articles generally studied RNC advertisements, products and/or descriptors. For public health features, articles studied counter-messaging (eg, warning labels) or general descriptors about nicotine or a reduced nicotine product standard. Commercial features were generally associated with favourable responses. Public health features offset favourable responses across most outcomes, though their efficacy was mixed. Contrasts in results by smoking status are discussed.

CONCLUSIONS

Commercial marketing of RNCs is appealing and may need stronger regulations or communication campaigns to accurately convey risks. Opportunities exist for future research within tobacco regulatory science.

Trends and Patterns of Tobacco and Nicotine Product Use Among Youth in Canada, England, and the United States From 2017 to 2019

PURPOSE

The tobacco and nicotine market is diversifying. Implications for public health will depend on trends in use, including overall use, and who is using these products. This study examined differences over time (2017-2019), across countries (Canada, England, the United States (US)), and by smoking and vaping, in use of other tobacco/nicotine products and overall use.

METHODS

The study includes online repeat cross-sectional surveys of youth aged 16-19 years in Canada (N = 11,714), England (N = 11,170), US (N = 11,838) in 2017, 2018, and 2019. Past 30-day use of tobacco/nicotine products (any, cigarette, e-cigarette, other combusted [cigars/cigarillos/waterpipe], other non-combusted [smokeless tobacco/nicotine replacement therapies) were examined by country, year, and, for other combusted and non-combusted products, past 30-day cigarette smoking and vaping. Use of emerging products (IQOS, nicotine pouches) was explored in 2018-2019.

RESULTS

From 2017 to 2019, use of any product increased in Canada (17.1%-23.2%, AOR = 1.07 [95% CI = 1.04-1.09]) and the US (18.0%-24.0%, AOR = 1.06 [1.04-1.09]) but not England (20.8%-21.7%, AOR = 1.01 [.99-1.03]). Use of other combusted products (cigars/cigarillos/waterpipe) showed little change (Canada: 8.1%-7.8%; England: 6.3%-7.3%; US: 8.6%-8.5%; p ≥ .151). Use of other non-combusted products (smokeless/nicotine replacement therapies) increased in all countries (Canada: 1.5%-3.2%, AOR = 1.02 [1.01-1.02]; England: 1.4%-2.6%, AOR = 1.02 [1.01-1.03]; US: 3.3%-4.9%, AOR = 1.02 [1.01-1.02]). Vaping increased in all countries (Canada: 8.4%-17.8%; England: 8.7%-12.6%; United States: 11.1%-18.5%; all p < .001). Smokers and vapers reported greater use of other combusted and non-combusted products than those who neither smoked/vaped (p < .001). Emerging product use was rare (≤1.5%).

CONCLUSIONS

Youth past 30-day tobacco and nicotine product use increased from 2017 to 2019 in Canada and the United States, largely due to increases in vaping and other non-combusted products. "Other" tobacco/nicotine products were used predominantly by youth who smoked cigarettes and/or vaped.

Tobacco and Nicotine Use Among US Adult "Never Smokers" in Wave 4 (2016-2018) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study

INTRODUCTION

A common criterion for being labeled a "never smoker" is having smoked <100 lifetime cigarettes. This category is often used as an unexposed reference group to estimate the relative harm from cigarettes. We examined the amount of current and past cigarette and non-cigarette tobacco/nicotine use among adults who met this "never smoker" criterion.

METHODS

We analyzed cross-sectional data from 17 179 adult "never smokers" (ie, reported <100 lifetime cigarettes) in Wave 4 (2016-2018) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study, a United States nationally representative sample. We used PATH-derived variables to describe "never smokers'" demographics as well as cigarette and non-cigarette tobacco/nicotine use.

RESULTS

Approximately half of "never smokers" were young adults (49.3%). Most were white (68.6%) with some college or more (64.4%). Most "never smokers" had tried any cigarette or non-cigarette tobacco/nicotine in their lifetime (66.7%), 8.5% smoked cigarettes in the past 30 days, and 5.3% were current experimental (ie, some days or every day) cigarette smokers. By definition, "never smokers" reported smoking <100 lifetime cigarettes. One fifth (22.8%) had a lifetime history of established regular non-cigarette tobacco/nicotine use and 8.6% were current established regular non-cigarette tobacco/nicotine users. In total, 9.4% of "never smokers" were current experimental or established regular users of combustible tobacco.

CONCLUSIONS

The 100-cigarette lifetime threshold includes substantial amounts of current and past tobacco use and thus does not represent lack of exposure to cigarette or non-cigarette tobacco. "Never smoker" reference groups may produce underestimates of the relative harms from cigarettes.

IMPLICATIONS

The <100 lifetime cigarettes criterion may not capture what many would consider true "never smokers." Relying on the current definition of "never smokers" as a reference group will include a substantial number of those currently and recently using combustible tobacco and thus produce data that may underestimate the relative harm from cigarettes. Prospective longitudinal research is needed to compare how the 100-cigarette lifetime threshold versus other definitions of regular cigarette smoking differ in predictive validity of clinically meaningful outcomes and health harms to determine the optimal criteria to define established cigarette smoking.

Overview of tobacco use transitions for population health

The Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act provided the US Food and Drug Administration authority to regulate tobacco products using a population health standard. Models have been developed to estimate the population health impacts of tobacco initiation, cessation and relapse transitions. Models should be informed by high-quality, longitudinal data to estimate these constructs. Simulation studies have generated data to predict the impact of various tobacco control interventions, including the influence of regulations on tobacco use behaviours and health. The purpose of this paper is to provide a high-level conceptual overview for understanding tobacco transition behaviours and correlates of these behaviours using data from the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study, a US nationally representative longitudinal tobacco study of about 46 000 persons aged 12+ years. The papers that follow in this journal issue build and expand on this conceptual overview using data from the first three waves of the PATH Study. These papers describe use patterns of different tobacco products and their correlates, and can serve as foundations for more in-depth papers that will help the research community better understand the population health impacts and drivers of different tobacco use patterns.

Longitudinal pathways of exclusive and polytobacco cigar use among youth, young adults and adults in the USA: findings from the PATH Study Waves 1-3 (2013-2016)

OBJECTIVE

The goal of this study is to examine the cross-sectional prevalence of use and 3-year longitudinal pathways of cigar use in US youth (12-17 years), young adults (18-24 years), and adults 25+ (25 years or older).

DESIGN

Data were drawn from the first three waves (2013-2016) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study, a nationally representative, longitudinal cohort study of US youth and adults. Respondents with data at all three waves (youth, n=11 046; young adults, n=6478; adults 25+, n=17 188) were included in longitudinal analyses.

RESULTS

Weighted cross-sectional prevalence of past 30-day (P30D) use was stable for adults 25+ (~6%), but decreased in youth (Wave 1 (W1) to Wave 3 (W3)=2.5% to 1.2%) and young adults (W1 to W3=15.7% to 14.0%). Among W1 P30D cigar users, over 50% discontinued cigar use (irrespective of other tobacco use) by Wave 2 (W2) or W3. Across age groups, over 70% of W1 P30D cigar users also indicated P30D use of another tobacco product, predominantly cigar polytobacco use with cigarettes. Discontinuing all tobacco use by W2 or W3 was greater in adult exclusive P30D cigar users compared with polytobacco cigar users.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the majority of P30D cigar users discontinued use by W3, adult polytobacco users of cigars were less likely to discontinue all tobacco use than were exclusive cigar users. Tracking patterns of cigar use will allow further assessment of the population health impact of cigars.

Correlates of tobacco product reuptake and relapse among youth and adults in the USA: findings from the PATH Study Waves 1-3 (2013-2016)

OBJECTIVE

This study examines sociodemographic and tobacco use correlates of reuptake and relapse to tobacco use across a variety of tobacco products (cigarettes, electronic nicotine delivery systems, cigars, hookah and smokeless tobacco) among the US population.

DESIGN

Data were drawn from the first three waves (2013-2016) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study, a nationally representative, longitudinal cohort study of US youth (ages 12-17) and adults (ages 18+). Reuptake (past 30-day use among previous tobacco users) and relapse (current use among former established users; adults only) were examined among previous users of at least one type of tobacco product at Wave 1 (W1) or Wave 2 (W2) (n=19 120 adults, n=3039 youth). Generalised estimating equations were used to evaluate the association between demographic and tobacco use characteristics at baseline, with reuptake/relapse at follow-up, over two 1-year periods (W1-W2 and W2-Wave 3).

RESULTS

Any tobacco product reuptake occurred in 7.8% of adult previous users and 30.3% of youth previous users. Correlates of any tobacco reuptake included being male, non-Hispanic black and bisexual in adults, but race and sexual orientation were not consistent findings in youth. Among recent former users, relapse rates were greater (32.9%). Shorter time since last use and greater levels of tobacco dependence showed the strongest association with any tobacco relapse.

DISCUSSION

Continued clinical and public health efforts to provide adults with tools to cope with tobacco dependence symptoms, especially within the first year or two after quitting, could help prevent relapse.

Prospective estimation of the age of initiation of cigarettes among young adults (18-24 years old): Findings from the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) waves 1-4 (2013-2017)

OBJECTIVES

To prospectively estimate the age of cigarette initiation among young adults (18-24 years old) who were never cigarette users at their first wave of adult study participation overall, by sex, and by race/ethnicity given recent increases in cigarette initiation occurring in young adulthood.

METHODS

Secondary analyses were conducted using the PATH restricted-use adult datasets among young adult never users of cigarettes in waves 1-3 (2013-2016) with outcomes followed-up in waves 2-4 (2014-2017). Interval censoring survival methods were used to estimate the age of initiation of (i) ever, (ii) past 30-day, and (iii) fairly regular cigarette use. Among never cigarette users when they first entered the adult study, interval censoring Cox proportional hazard models were used to explore differences in the estimated age of initiation of the three cigarette use outcomes by sex and by race/ethnicity, controlling for the effect of previous e-cigarette use and the total number of other tobacco products ever used (0-5 products) before cigarette initiation outcomes.

RESULTS

Among the young adults who were never cigarette users at their first wave of adult participation, the highest increase in cigarette initiation occurred between 18 and 19 years old. By age 21, 10.6% (95% CI: 9.5-11.7) initiated ever cigarette use, 7.7% (95% CI: 6.1-8.1) initiated past 30-day of cigarette use, and 1.9% (95% CI: 1.4-2.5) initiated fairly regular cigarette use. After controlling for other tobacco products: (a) males were 83% more likely to initiate past 30-day cigarette use at earlier ages than females; (b) Hispanic and Non-Hispanic Black young adults had increased risk to initiate past 30-day cigarette use at earlier ages than Non-Hispanic White young adults (62% and 34%, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

The substantial amount of cigarette initiation among young adults reinforces the need for prevention strategies among this population. Although, interventions are needed for all young adult populations, strategies should target 18-21-year-olds, with potentially differential prevention targets by sex and by race/ethnicity.

Public health implications of vaping in the USA: the smoking and vaping simulation model

Background

Nicotine vaping products (NVPs) are increasingly popular worldwide. They may provide public health benefits if used as a substitute for smoking, but may create public health harms if used as a gateway to smoking or to discourage smoking cessation. This paper presents the Smoking and Vaping Model (SAVM), a user-friendly model which estimates the public health implications of NVPs in the USA.

Methods

SAVM adopts a cohort approach. We derive public health implications by comparing smoking- and NVP-attributable deaths and life-years lost under a No-NVP and an NVP Scenario. The No-NVP Scenario projects current, former, and never smoking rates via smoking initiation and cessation rates, with their respective mortality rates. The NVP Scenario allows for smoking- and NVP-specific mortality rates, switching from cigarette to NVP use, separate NVP and smoking initiation rates, and separate NVP and smoking cessation rates. After validating the model against recent US survey data, we present the base model with extensive sensitivity analyses.

Results

The SAVM projects that under current patterns of US NVP use and substitution, NVP use will translate into 1.8 million premature smoking- and vaping-attributable deaths avoided and 38.9 million life-years gained between 2013 and 2060. When the NVP relative risk is set to 5%, the results are sensitive to the level of switching and smoking cessation rates and to a lesser extent smoking initiation rates. When the NVP relative risk is raised to 40%, the public health gains in terms of averted deaths and LYL are reduced by 42% in the base case, and the results become much more sensitive to variations in the base case parameters.

Discussion

Policymakers, researchers, and other public health stakeholders can apply the SAVM to estimate the potential public health impact of NVPs in their country or region using their own data sources. In developing new simulation models involving NVPs, it will be important to conduct extensive sensitivity analysis and continually update and validate with new data.

Conclusion

The SAVM indicates the potential benefits of NVP use. However, given the uncertainty surrounding model parameters, extensive sensitivity analysis becomes particularly important.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12963-021-00250-7.

Use of E-cigarettes and Other Tobacco Products and Progression to Daily Cigarette Smoking

OBJECTIVES

To identify predictors of becoming a daily cigarette smoker over the course of 4 years.

METHODS

We identified 12- to 24-year-olds at wave 1 of the US Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study and determined ever use, age at first use, and daily use through wave 4 for 12 tobacco products.

RESULTS

Sixty-two percent of 12- to 24-year-olds (95% confidence interval [CI]: 60.1% to 63.2%) tried tobacco, and 30.2% (95% CI: 28.7% to 31.6%) tried ≥5 tobacco products by wave 4. At wave 4, 12% were daily tobacco users, of whom 70% were daily cigarette smokers (95% CI: 67.4% to 73.0%); daily cigarette smoking was 20.8% in 25- to 28-year-olds (95% CI: 18.9% to 22.9%), whereas daily electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) vaping was 3.3% (95% CI: 2.4% to 4.4%). Compared with single product triers, the risk of progressing to daily cigarette smoking was 15 percentage points higher (adjusted risk difference [aRD] 15%; 95% CI: 12% to 18%) among those who tried ≥5 products. In particular, e-cigarette use increased the risk of later daily cigarette smoking by threefold (3% vs 10%; aRD 7%; 95% CI: 6% to 9%). Daily smoking was 6 percentage points lower (aRD -6%; 95% CI: -8% to -4%) for those who experimented after age 18 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Trying e-cigarettes and multiple other tobacco products before age 18 years is strongly associated with later daily cigarette smoking. The recent large increase in e-cigarette use will likely reverse the decline in cigarette smoking among US young adults.

An analysis of within-subject and population level risk related to substance use and mental health outcomes among adolescents in the PATH study

INTRODUCTION

The objective of this study was to understand how adolescent substance use patterns may lead to negative mental health outcomes.

METHODS

Data from adolescents (12-17 years old at baseline, Wave 1) who participated in the first 3 waves of the Population Assessment of Health and Tobacco (PATH) study were used. Self-reported data on past 30-day substance use and internalizing/externalizing problems were used to conduct within-subject (fixed-effects model) and population-averaged (GEE model) analyses.

RESULTS

In both within-subject and between-subject analyses, the use of other illicit drugs (e.g., opioids, cocaine, prescription drugs for non-medical use) was positively associated with internalizing problems (within-subject estimate, AOR: 1.65, 95 % CI = 1.36-2.01; between-subject estimate, AOR: 1.53, 95 % CI = 1.32-1.78) and alcohol use was positively associated with externalizing problems (within-subject estimate, AOR: 1.66, 95 % CI = 1.43-1.93; between-subject estimate, AOR: 1.67, 95 % CI = 1.48-1.89). Additionally, within-subject analysis suggested that alcohol, marijuana, and other illicit drugs were associated with increased odds of comorbid internalizing and externalizing problems (ranging from marijuana, AOR: 1.18, - alcohol, AOR: 1.58).

DISCUSSION

Using within-subject and between-subject comparisons, this study demonstrated associations between adolescent substance use and internalizing and externalizing problems. Results suggest not only the need for individual level assessment and early intervention, but also the development and implementation of public health policy aimed at preventing or mitigating the negative effects of substance use in adolescence to promote improved mental health outcomes for this at-risk group.

Transitions between cigarette, ENDS and dual use in adults in the PATH study (waves 1-4): multistate transition modelling accounting for complex survey design

INTRODUCTION

Even prior to 2018, electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) began to dramatically change the landscape of tobacco products and product use patterns in the USA.

METHODS

Using a Markov multistate transition model accounting for complex survey design, transition rates between never, non-current, cigarette, ENDS and dual use states were estimated for 23 253 adult participants in waves 1-4 (approximately 2013-2017) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health study. We made short-term transition projections and estimated HRs for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education and income.

RESULTS

Cigarette use was persistent among adults, with 89.7% (95% CI 89.1% to 90.3%) of exclusive cigarette users and 86.1% (95% CI 84.4% to 87.9%) of dual users remaining cigarette users (either exclusive or dual) after one wave. In contrast, ENDS use was less persistent, with 72.1% (95% CI 69.6% to 74.6%) of exclusive ENDS users and 50.5% (95% CI 47.8% to 53.3%) of dual users remaining ENDS users (with or without cigarettes) after one wave. Exclusive ENDS users were more likely to start cigarette use after one wave than either never users (HR 25.2; 95% CI 20.9 to 30.5) or non-current users (HR 5.0; 95% CI 4.3 to 5.8). Dual users of ENDS and cigarettes were more likely to stop using cigarettes than exclusive cigarette users (HR 1.9; 95% CI 1.6 to 2.3). Transition rates varied among sociodemographic groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Multistate transition models are an effective tool for uncovering and characterising longitudinal patterns and determinants of tobacco use from complex survey data. ENDS use among US adults was less persistent than cigarette use prior to 2018.

Changes in Smoking and Vaping over 18 Months among Smokers and Recent Ex-Smokers: Longitudinal Findings from the 2016 and 2018 ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Surveys

This descriptive study of smokers (smoked at least monthly) and recent ex-smokers (quit for ≤2 years) examined transitions over an 18 month period in their smoking and vaping behaviors. Data are from Waves 1 (W1: 2016) and 2 (W2: 2018) of the ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey, a cohort study of adult (≥18+) smokers, concurrent users (smoke and vape), and recent ex-smokers from Australia, Canada, England, and the United States (US). Respondents (N = 5016) were classified according to their smoking and vaping status, which resulted in eight subgroups: (1) exclusive daily smokers (2) exclusive non-daily smokers; (3–6) concurrent users (subdivided into four groups by each combination of daily/non-daily smoking and daily/non-daily vaping); (7) ex-smokers who vape; (8) ex-smokers not vaping. The analyses focused first on describing changes between groups from W1 to W2. Second, transition outcomes were assessed based on changes in smoking and vaping between W1 and W2. Transitions focused on smoking were: no change in smoking (continued smoking at the same frequency); decreased smoking; increased smoking; discontinued smoking; relapsed (ex-smokers at W1 who were smoking at W2). Transitions focused on vaping were: initiated vaping; switched from smoking to vaping. Overall, this study found that the vast majority of smokers were smoking 18 months later. Non-daily smokers were more likely than daily smokers to have discontinued smoking (p < 0.0001) and to have switched to exclusive vaping (p = 0.034). Exclusive non-daily smokers were more likely than exclusive daily smokers to have initiated vaping (p = 0.04). Among all W1 daily smokers, there were no differences in discontinued smoking between daily smokers who vaped (concurrent users) and exclusive daily smokers; however, concurrent users were more likely than exclusive daily smokers to have decreased to non-daily smoking (p < 0.001) or to have switched to vaping by W2 (p < 0.001). Among all W1 non-daily smokers, there were no significant differences in increased smoking or discontinued smoking between concurrent users or exclusive smokers. Most ex-smokers remained abstinent from smoking, and there was no difference in relapse back to smoking between those who vaped and those who did not.

Initiation of any tobacco and five tobacco products across 3 years among youth, young adults and adults in the USA: findings from the PATH Study Waves 1-3 (2013-2016)

OBJECTIVE

This study reports weighted cross-sectional prevalence of never use of tobacco, and longitudinal past 12-month (P12M), past 30-day (P30D) and frequent P30D any tobacco or specific tobacco product initiation across three 1-year waves. Longitudinal three-wave pathways are examined to outline pathways of exclusive and polytobacco initiation, as well as pathways of new initiators of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) or cigarettes.

DESIGN

Data were drawn from the first three waves (2013-2016) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study, a nationally representative, longitudinal cohort study of US youth and adults. Respondents with data at all three waves (youth, N = 11 046; young adults, N = 6478; adults 25+, N = 17 188) were included in longitudinal analyses.

RESULTS

Across the three age groups, weighted cross-sectional analyses revealed never any tobacco use decreased each year from 2013 to 2016, reflecting overall increases in tobacco initiation in the population during this time. Compared with cigarettes, cigars, hookah and smokeless tobacco, ENDS had the highest proportion of P12M initiation from Wave 1 to Wave 3 (W3) for each age group. Among youth Wave 2 P30D initiators of exclusive ENDS or cigarettes, the most common W3 outcome was not using any tobacco (ENDS: 59.0% (95% CI 48.4 to 68.8); cigarettes: 40.3% (95% CI 28.7 to 53.1)).

CONCLUSIONS

Initiation rates of ENDS among youth and young adults have increased the number of ever tobacco users in the US prevention strategies across the spectrum of tobacco products which can address youth initiation of tobacco products.

Longitudinal transitions of exclusive and polytobacco electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) use among youth, young adults and adults in the USA: findings from the PATH Study Waves 1-3 (2013-2016)

OBJECTIVE

Electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS; including e-cigarettes) are rapidly evolving in the US marketplace. This study reports cross-sectional prevalence and longitudinal pathways of ENDS use across 3 years, among US youth (12-17 years), young adults (18-24 years) and adults 25+ (25 years and older).

DESIGN

Data were from the first three waves (2013-2016) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study, a nationally representative, longitudinal cohort study of US youth and adults. Respondents with data at all three waves (youth, n=11 046; young adults, n=6478; adults 25+, n=17 188) were included in longitudinal analyses.

RESULTS

Weighted cross-sectional ever use of ENDS increased at each wave. Across all three waves, young adults had the highest percentages of past 12-month, past 30-day (P30D) and daily P30D ENDS use compared with youth and adults 25+. Only about a quarter of users had persistent P30D ENDS use at each wave. Most ENDS users were polytobacco users. Exclusive Wave 1 ENDS users had a higher proportion of subsequent discontinued any tobacco use compared with polytobacco ENDS users who also used cigarettes.

CONCLUSIONS

ENDS use is most common among young adults compared with youth and adults 25+. However, continued use of ENDS over 2 years is not common for any age group. Health education efforts to reduce the appeal and availability of ENDS products might focus on reducing ENDS experimentation, and on reaching the smaller subgroups of daily ENDS users to better understand their reasons for use.

Correlates of tobacco product cessation among youth and adults in the USA: findings from the PATH Study Waves 1-3 (2013-2016)

OBJECTIVE

To report on demographic and tobacco use correlates of cessation behaviours across tobacco products (cigarettes, electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS), cigars, hookah and smokeless tobacco) among the US population.

DESIGN

Data were drawn from the first three waves (2013-2016) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study, a nationally representative, longitudinal cohort study of US youth (ages 12-17) and adults (ages 18+) . Past 30-day (P30D) tobacco users at Wave 1 (W1) or Wave 2 (W2) were included (n=1374 youth; n=14 389 adults). Generalised estimating equations were used to evaluate the association between demographic and tobacco use characteristics at baseline, with cessation behaviours at follow-up (discontinuing use, attempting to quit, quitting), over two 1-year periods (W1-W2, W2-Wave 3).

RESULTS

Among adult users of each type of tobacco product, frequency of use was negatively associated with discontinuing use. Among adult cigarette smokers, non-Hispanic white smokers, those with lower educational attainment and those with lower household income were less likely to discontinue cigarette use; ENDS use was positively associated with making quit attempts but was not associated with cigarette quitting among attempters; smokeless tobacco use was positively associated with quitting among attempters; tobacco dependence was negatively associated with quitting among attempters. Among youth cigarette smokers, tobacco dependence was negatively associated with making quit attempts.

DISCUSSION

Demographic correlates of tobacco cessation behaviours underscore tobacco use disparities in the USA. Use of ENDS and use of smokeless tobacco products are positively associated with some adult cigarette cessation behaviours.

Longitudinal pathways of exclusive and polytobacco hookah use among youth, young adults and adults in the USA: findings from the PATH Study Waves 1-3 (2013-2016)

OBJECTIVE

The goal of this study is to examine cross-sectional rates of use and longitudinal pathways of hookah use among US youth (ages 12-17), young adults (ages 18-24), and adults 25+ (ages 25 and older).

DESIGN

Data were drawn from the first three waves (2013-2016) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study, a nationally representative, longitudinal cohort study of US adults and youth. Respondents with data at all three waves (youth, n=11 046; young adults, n=6478; adults 25+, n=17 188) were included in longitudinal analyses.

RESULTS

Young adults had higher ever, past 12-month (P12M) and past 30-day cross-sectional prevalence of hookah use at each wave than youth or adults 25+. The majority of Wave 1 (W1) hookah users were P12M users of other tobacco products (youth: 73.9%, young adults: 80.5%, adults 25+: 83.2%). Most youth and adult W1 P12M hookah users discontinued use in Wave 2 or Wave 3 (youth: 58.0%, young adults: 47.5%, adults 25+: 63.4%). Most W1 P12M hookah polytobacco users used cigarettes (youth: 49.4%, young adults: 59.4%, adults 25+: 63.2%) and had lower rates of quitting all tobacco than exclusive hookah users or hookah polytobacco users who did not use cigarettes.

CONCLUSIONS

Hookah use is more common among young adults than among youth or adults 25+. Discontinuing hookah use is the most common pathway among exclusive or polytobacco hookah users. Understanding longitudinal transitions in hookah use is important in understanding behavioural outcomes at the population level.

Longitudinal pathways of exclusive and polytobacco smokeless use among youth, young adults and adults in the USA: findings from the PATH Study Waves 1-3 (2013-2016)

OBJECTIVE

Use of smokeless tobacco (SLT) with other tobacco products is growing, yet gaps in understanding transitions among SLT and other product use remain. The aim of this study is to examine cross-sectional prevalence and longitudinal pathways of SLT use among US youth (12-17 years), young adults (18-24 years) and adults 25+ (25 years and older).

DESIGN

Data were drawn from the first three waves (2013-2016) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study, a nationally representative, longitudinal cohort study of US youth and adults. Respondents with data at all three waves (youth, n=11 046; young adults, n=6478; adults 25+, n=17 188) were included in longitudinal analyses.

RESULTS

Young adults had the highest current SLT use compared with other age groups. Among Wave 1 (W1) past 30-day youth and young adult SLT users, most were SLT and cigarette polytobacco users compared with adults 25+, who more often used SLT exclusively. Among W1 exclusive SLT users, persistent exclusive use across all three waves was more common among adults 25+, while transitioning from exclusive SLT use to SLT polytobacco use at Wave 2 or Wave 3 was more common among youth and young adults. Among W1 SLT and cigarette polytobacco users, a common pathway was discontinuing SLT use but continuing other tobacco use.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results showed distinct longitudinal transitions among exclusive and SLT polytobacco users. Deeper understanding of these critical product transitions will allow for further assessment of population health impact of these products.