Mediation Analysis: A Practitioner's Guide

Adverse childhood experiences and falls in older adults: The mediating role of depression

OBJECTIVES

To explore the relationship between adverse childhood experiences and falls in older adults, and the mediating effects of depression on such associations.

METHODS

This is a prospective study used survey data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study. Twelve expanded ACEs obtained from the 2014 Life History Survey. Depression levels were assessed using the Centre for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale-10. Self-reported outcomes of falling evaluated based on "Have you fallen down since the last survey?" and "How many times have you fallen down seriously enough to need medical treatment?" Logistic regression models were used to explore the relationship between ACEs with falls and recurrent falls. Poisson regression models were used to explore the relationship between ACEs and number of severe falls. Besides, mediation analysis was used to explore whether depression mediates the relationship between ACEs and falls in older adults.

RESULTS

The more adverse childhood experiences experienced, the higher the risk of fall and recurrent falls, and the more severe the falls. Additionally, depression partially mediated the relationship between adverse childhood experiences and falls. Besides, middle-aged individuals were more susceptible to the impact of adverse childhood experiences on falls than older individuals, especially males.

CONCLUSIONS

Exposure to adverse childhood experiences is associated with falls in older adults, and depression partially mediates this association. Middle-aged adults were more susceptible to the impact of adverse childhood experiences on falls. These offer important information for clinical practice and public health interventions to prevent falls and reduce fall-related injuries among older adults.

Serum uric acid, body mass index, and cardiovascular diseases: A multiple two-step Mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

A number of health issues, including high serum uric acid (SUA) and cardiovascular disease (CVD), have been linked to obesity based on observational evidence, though it's currently unclear how these issues are causally related. In order to determine whether obesity mediates this association, we set out to investigate the causal relationship between SUA, obesity, and CVD.

METHODS AND RESULTS

From publicly available genome-wide association studies, we acquired instrumental variables that had a strong correlation to SUA and body mass index (BMI). We employed multiple two-step Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses, using genetic and clinical data from various publicly available biological databases. The mediating role of BMI was examined through mediation analysis. SUA was genetically correlated with BMI [OR = 1.080, 95% CI: 1.024-1.139, P = 0.005]. There was a positive causal effect of SUA on AF [OR = 0.892, 95% CI: 0.804-0.990, P = 0.032], CAD [OR = 0.942, 95% CI: 0.890-0.997, P = 0.037], and EHT [OR = 1.080, 95% CI: 1.024-1.139, P = 0.005]. Among them, BMI mediated the effects of SUA on AF (42.2%; 95% CI, 35.3%-51.9%), CAD (76.3%; 95% CI, 63.4%-92.0%), and EHT (10.0%; 95% CI, 0%-20.0%).

CONCLUSION

Our research revealed a causal relationship between high SUA exposure and an increased risk of obesity. Additionally, a high SUA level was linked to an increased risk of various CVDs. Given that individuals with high SUA are more likely to be susceptible to AF, CAD, and EHT, attention must be given to their weight status.

Maternal stress in pregnancy and pubertal timing in girls and boys: a cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether maternal stress in pregnancy is associated with pubertal timing in girls and boys and to explore potential mediation by childhood body mass index (BMI) and childhood psychosocial stress.

DESIGN

Cohort study.

SETTING

Not applicable.

PATIENTS

In total, 14,702 girls and boys from the Puberty Cohort, nested within the Danish National Birth Cohort.

INTERVENTION

Maternal stress was obtained from a computer-assisted telephone interview in gestational weeks 30-32 as maternal life stress and emotional distress in pregnancy using questions on the basis of validated screening tools. Maternal life stress and emotional distress in pregnancy were analyzed separately and in an interaction analysis.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Pubertal timing was measured half-yearly from age 11 years and throughout pubertal development and assessed as Tanner stages 1-5 (breast and pubic hair development in girls and genital and pubic hair development in boys), menarche in girls, voice break and first ejaculation in boys, and occurrence of acne and axillary hair in both girls and boys. A combined estimate for overall pubertal timing was derived using Huber-White robust variance estimation. Mean differences in age at attaining the pubertal milestones according to prenatal exposure to no (reference), low-, moderate-, or high-maternal stress in pregnancy were estimated using a multivariable censored regression model. Potential mediation by childhood BMI and childhood psychosocial stress was investigated in separate models.

RESULTS

After adjustment for potential confounding factors, prenatal exposure to high-maternal life stress (combined estimate: -1.8 months [95% CI, -2.7 to -0.8] and -0.9 months [95% CI, -1.8 to 0.0]), high maternal emotional distress (combined estimate: -1.5 months [95% CI, -2.5 to -0.5] and -1.7 months [95% CI, -2.8 to -0.7]), and both high-maternal life stress and emotional distress (combined estimate: -2.8 months [95% CI, -4.2, to -1.4] and -1.7 months [95% CI, -3.1 to -0.2]) were associated with earlier pubertal timing in girls and boys, respectively. The associations were not mediated by childhood BMI or childhood psychosocial stress.

CONCLUSIONS

Prenatal exposure to maternal stress in pregnancy was associated with earlier pubertal timing in girls and boys in a dose-dependent manner. The associations were not mediated by childhood BMI or childhood psychosocial stress.

Association between adenomyosis and placenta accreta and mediation effect of assisted reproductive technology on the association: A nationwide observational study

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the association between adenomyosis and placenta accreta spectrum (PAS) and to evaluate the effect of assisted reproductive technology (ART) in mediating this association.

METHODS

We retrieved data for singleton women from the Japanese nationwide perinatal registry between 2013 and 2019, excluding women with a history of adenomyomectomy. To investigate the association between adenomyosis and PAS among women, we used a multivariable logistic regression model with multiple imputation for missing data. We evaluated mediation effect of ART including in vitro fertilization and intracytoplasmic sperm injection on the association between adenomyosis and PAS using causal mediation analysis based on the counterfactual approach.

RESULTS

Of 1 500 173 pregnant women, 1539 (0.10%) had adenomyosis. The number receiving ART was 489/1539 (31.8%) and 117 482/1 498 634 (7.8%) in women with and without adenomyosis, respectively. The proportion of women who developed PAS was 21/1539 (1.4%) in women with adenomyosis and 7530/1 498 634 (0.5%) in women without adenomyosis. Adenomyosis was significantly associated with PAS (odds ratio [OR] 1.95; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.26-3.00; P = 0.002). Mediation analysis showed that OR of the total effect of adenomyosis on PAS was 1.98 (95% CI 1.13-3.04), OR of natural indirect effect (effect explained by ART) was 1.15 (95% CI 1.01-1.41), and OR of natural direct effect (effect unexplained by ART) was 1.72 (95% CI 0.86-2.82). The proportion mediated (natural indirect effect/total effect) was 26.5%. Adenomyosis was also significantly associated with PAS without previa (OR 1.96; 95% CI 1.23-3.13, P = 0.005).

CONCLUSION

Adenomyosis was significantly associated with PAS. ART mediated 26.5% of the association between adenomyosis and PAS.

Accounting for taste: preferences mediate the relationship between documentation time and ambulatory physician burnout

OBJECTIVES

Physician burnout in the US has reached crisis levels, with one source identified as extensive after-hours documentation work in the electronic health record (EHR). Evidence has illustrated that physician preferences for after-hours work vary, such that after-hours work may not be universally burdensome. Our objectives were to analyze variation in preferences for after-hours documentation and assess if preferences mediate the relationship between after-hours documentation time and burnout.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We combined EHR active use data capturing physicians' hourly documentation work with survey data capturing documentation preferences and burnout. Our sample included 318 ambulatory physicians at MedStar Health. We conducted a mediation analysis to estimate if and how preferences mediated the relationship between after-hours documentation time and burnout. Our primary outcome was physician-reported burnout. We measured preferences for after-hours documentation work via a novel survey instrument (Burden Scenarios Assessment). We measured after-hours documentation time in the EHR as the total active time respondents spent documenting between 7 pm and 3 am.

RESULTS

Physician preferences varied, with completing clinical documentation after clinic hours while at home the scenario rated most burdensome (52.8% of physicians), followed by dealing with prior authorization (49.5% of physicians). In mediation analyses, preferences partially mediated the relationship between after-hours documentation time and burnout.

DISCUSSION

Physician preferences regarding EHR-based work play an important role in the relationship between after-hours documentation time and burnout.

CONCLUSION

Studies of EHR work and burnout should incorporate preferences, and operational leaders should assess preferences to better target interventions aimed at EHR-based contributors to burnout.

Race, Ethnicity, and Gender Disparities in Management and Outcomes of Critically Ill Adults with Sepsis

Critical care pathologies are not immune to potential social challenges in both health equity and health disparities. Over the last century, as sepsis physiology and interventions have continued to improve clinical outcomes, recognition that such improvements are not seen in all diverse populations warrants an understanding of this disproportionate success. In this review, the authors evaluate sepsis incidence and outcomes across ethnicity, race, and sex and gender, taking into account social and biological categorization and the association of sepsis-related mortality and morbidity. Further, the authors review how such issues transcend across age groups, with vulnerability to sepsis.

Adherence to the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) diet is associated with lower visceral and hepatic lipid content in recent-onset type 1 diabetes and type 2 diabetes

AIM

To investigate the associations of the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) score with subcutaneous (SAT) and visceral (VAT) adipose tissue volume and hepatic lipid content (HLC) in people with diabetes and to examine whether changes in the DASH diet were associated with changes in these outcomes.

METHODS

In total, 335 participants with recent-onset type 1 diabetes (T1D) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) from the German Diabetes Study were included in the cross-sectional analysis, and 111 participants in the analysis of changes during the 5-year follow-up. Associations between the DASH score and VAT, SAT and HLC and their changes were investigated using multivariable linear regression models by diabetes type. The proportion mediated by changes in potential mediators was determined using mediation analysis.

RESULTS

A higher baseline DASH score was associated with lower HLC, especially in people with T2D (per 5 points: -1.5% [-2.7%; -0.3%]). Over 5 years, a 5-point increase in the DASH score was associated with decreased VAT in people with T2D (-514 [-800; -228] cm3). Similar, but imprecise, associations were observed for VAT changes in people with T1D (-403 [-861; 55] cm3) and for HLC in people with T2D (-1.3% [-2.8%; 0.3%]). Body mass index and waist circumference changes explained 8%-48% of the associations between DASH and VAT changes in both groups. In people with T2D, adipose tissue insulin resistance index (Adipo-IR) changes explained 47% of the association between DASH and HLC changes.

CONCLUSIONS

A shift to a DASH-like diet was associated with favourable VAT and HLC changes, which were partly explained by changes in anthropometric measures and Adipo-IR.

Genetic analysis from multiple cohorts implies causality between 2200 druggable genes, telomere length, and leukemia

BACKGROUND

Clinical therapeutic targets for leukemia remain to be identified and the causality between leukemia and telomere length is unclear.

METHODS

This work employed cis expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) for 2,200 druggable genes from the eQTLGen Consortium and genome-wide association studies (GWAS) summary data for telomere length in seven blood cell types from the UK Biobank, Netherlands Cohort as exposures. GWAS data for lymphoid leukemia (LL) and myeloid leukemia (ML) from FinnGen and Lee Lab were used as outcomes for discovery and replication cohorts, respectively. Robust Mendelian randomization (MR) findings were generated from seven MR models and a series of sensitivity analyses. Summary-data-based MR (SMR) analysis and transcriptome-wide association studies (TWAS) were further implemented to verify the association between identified druggable genes and leukemia. Single-cell type expression analysis was employed to identify the specific expression of leukemia casual genes on human bone marrow and peripheral blood immune cells. Multivariable MR analysis, linkage disequilibrium score regression (LDSC), and Bayesian colocalization analysis were performed to further validate the relationship between telomere length and leukemia. Mediation analysis was used to assess the effects of identified druggable genes affecting leukemia via telomere length. Phenome-wide MR (Phe-MR) analysis for assessing the effect of leukemia causal genes and telomere length on 1,403 disease phenotypes.

RESULTS

Combining the results of the meta-analysis for MR estimates from two cohorts, SMR and TWAS analysis, we identified five LL causal genes (TYMP, DSTYK, PPIF, GDF15, FAM20A) and three ML causal genes (LY75, ADA, ABCA2) as promising drug targets for leukemia. Univariable MR analysis showed genetically predicted higher leukocyte telomere length increased the risk of LL (odds ratio [OR] = 2.33, 95 % confidence interval [95 % CI] 1.70-3.18; P = 1.33E-07), and there was no heterogeneity and horizontal pleiotropy. Evidence from the meta-analysis of two cohorts strengthened this finding (OR = 1.88, 95 % CI 1.06-3.05; P = 0.01). Multivariable MR analysis showed the causality between leukocyte telomere length and LL without interference from the other six blood cell telomere length (OR = 2.72, 95 % CI 1.88-3.93; P = 1.23E-07). Evidence from LDSC supported the positive genetic correlation between leukocyte telomere length and LL (rg = 0.309, P = 0.0001). Colocalization analysis revealed that the causality from leukocyte telomere length on LL was driven by the genetic variant rs770526 in the TERT region. The mediation analysis via two-step MR showed that the causal effect from TYMP on LL was partly mediated by leukocyte telomere length, with a mediated proportion of 12 %.

CONCLUSION

Our study identified several druggable genes associated with leukemia risk and provided new insights into the etiology and drug development of leukemia. We also found that genetically predicted higher leukocyte telomere length increased LL risk and its potential mechanism of action.

Access to healthcare services and factors associated with unmet needs among migrants in Phuket Province, Thailand, 2023: a cross-sectional mixed-method study

BACKGROUND

Phuket Province is a major tourist destination with a migrant workforce accounting for 10% of its population. Despite governmental efforts to adjust health insurance policies, migrants face healthcare access challenges. This study examines the current healthcare access situation and factors associated with unmet needs among migrants in Phuket Province.

METHODS

We used a cross-sectional mixed-methods approach, recruiting participants through snowball sampling from the Migrant Health Volunteer Network. Quantitative data were gathered using self-administered questionnaires, with unmet need defined as desired outpatient or recommended inpatient services not received at government hospitals. Multivariable logistic regression identified unmet need predictors, and we assessed the mediating effect of health insurance status. Qualitative data from three focus groups on healthcare access provided context and enriched the quantitative findings.

RESULTS

This study includes 296 migrants mainly from Myanmar. The overall unmet need prevalence was 14.86%, mainly attributed to having undocumented status (34.09%), affordability issues (20.45%), and language barriers (18.18%). Working in the fishery industry significantly increased unmet needs risk (aOR 2.68, 95% CI 1.08-6.62). Undocumented status contributed a marginal total effect of 4.86 (95% CI 1.62-14.54), with a natural indirect effect through uninsured status of only 1.16 (95% CI 0.88-1.52). Focus group participants used various medical resources, with insured individuals preferring hospital care, but faced obstacles due to undocumented status and language barriers.

CONCLUSION

Valid legal documents, including work permits and visas, are crucial for healthcare access. Attention to fishery industry practices is needed. We recommend stakeholder discussions to streamline the process of obtaining and maintaining these documents for migrant workers. These improvements could enhance health insurance acquisition and ultimately improve healthcare affordability for this population. These insights could be applied to migrant workers in other urban and suburban area of Thailand regarding access to government healthcare facilities.

Identification of Potential Causal Genes for Neurodegenerative Diseases by Mitochondria-Related Genome-Wide Mendelian Randomization

Current research lacks comprehensive investigations into the potential causal link between mitochondrial-related genes and the risk of neurodegenerative diseases (NDDs). We aimed to identify potential causative genes for five NDDs through an examination of mitochondrial-related gene expression levels. Through the integration of summary statistics from expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) datasets (human blood and brain tissue), mitochondrial DNA copy number (mtDNA-CN), and genome-wide association studies (GWAS) datasets of five NDDs from European ancestry, we conducted a Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis to explore the potential causal relationship between mitochondrial-related genes and Alzheimer's disease (AD), Parkinson's disease (PD), amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), frontotemporal dementia (FTD), and Lewy body dementia (LBD). Sensitivity analysis and Bayesian colocalization were employed to validate this causal relationship. Through MR analysis, we have identified potential causal relationships between 12 mitochondria-related genes and AD, PD, ALS, and FTD overlapping with motor neuron disease (FTD_MND) in human blood or brain tissue. Bayesian colocalization analysis further confirms 9 causal genes, including NDUFS2, EARS2, and MRPL41 for AD; NDUFAF2, MALSU1, and METTL8 for PD; MYO19 and MRM1 for ALS; and FASTKD1 for FTD_MND. Importantly, in both human blood and brain tissue, NDUFS2 exhibits a significant pathogenic effect on AD, while NDUFAF2 demonstrates a robust protective effect on PD. Additionally, the mtDNA-CN plays a protected role in LBD (OR = 0.62, p = 0.031). This study presents evidence establishing a causal relationship between mitochondrial dysfunction and NDDs. Furthermore, the identified candidate genes may serve as potential targets for drug development aimed at preventing NDDs.

Association of perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) with liver function biomarkers in the highly exposed population of the Veneto Region

INTRODUCTION

Epidemiological studies highlight the presence of associations between per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) exposure with liver damage. In 2013, PFAS contamination was discovered in Veneto (Italy), leading to the implementation of a Surveillance Program (SP). Our objective is to investigate the association between PFAS exposure and biomarkers of liver function using single-pollutant and mixture approaches, while exploring the sex-specific differences and the mediating role of obesity in the association.

METHODS

The study included 42,094 subjects aged ≥20 years participating in the SP. We used generalized additive models to investigate the association between several PFAS and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) levels, adjusting for possible confounders and stratifying by sex. Results were back-transformed to show predicted percentage changes in outcomes per ln-unit increase in PFAS levels; furthermore, we explored the role of BMI in the abovementioned causal pathway, considering it as a potential confounder or mediator PFAS joint effect was investigated using Quantile G-computation.

RESULTS

One ln-unit increase in PFHxS concentrations was associated with a 1.49% (95%CI: 0.87, 2.12) and a 0.84% (95% CI: 0.27, 1.40) increase in ALT levels, in males and females respectively; one ln-unit increase in PFOA concentrations was associated with a 1.03% (95%CI: 0.50, 1.55) increase in ALT levels in males, and a 0.52% (95% CI: 0.22, 0.82) and a 0.60% (95% CI: 0.25, 0.96) increase in AST levels in females and males. PFOS showed no association with ALT and AST levels. Quantile G-computation revealed that an interquartile increase in the PFAS mixture was associated with a 3.02% increase (95% CI: 1.65, 4.43) and a 1.65% (95% CI: 0.77, 2.5) increase in ALT levels, in females and males. Mediation analysis suggested that BMI suppressed the association between PFAS and ALT levels, with positive direct effects higher than the total effects.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest sex-specific associations between PFAS exposure and liver function biomarkers and underscore the need for additional studies on potential mediators.

Fructose intake, endogenous biomarkers and latent metabolic construct in adolescents: Exploring path associations and mediating effects

BACKGROUND

Uric acid (UA) and homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) are endogenous biomarkers implicated in metabolic disorders and dysfunction.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the structural associations between sugar-sweetened beverage intake (SSB), UA, HOMA-IR and adolescent latent MetS construct (MetsC) representing paediatric metabolic syndrome (MetS).

METHODS

A population-based representative adolescent cohort (n = 1454) was evaluated for risk profiles of MetS. Structural equation modelling was performed to identify multifactor structural associations between study parameters and evaluate mediating effects.

RESULTS

Adolescents had a single-factor latent construct representing MetS. Increased SSB intake was associated with higher UA and HOMA-IR levels, and the two biomarkers were positively associated with the MetsC score. UA and HOMA-IR exerted three mediating effects on the association between fructose-rich tea beverage (FTB) intake of >500 mL/day and MetsC: adjusted standardized coefficient and mediating effect (%), FTB → UA → MetsC: 0.071, 23.1%; FTB → HOMA-IR → MetsC: 0.034, 11.0%; FTB → UA → HOMA-IR → MetsC: 0.010, 3.1%. The UA-associated pathways accounted for 31.1% of the overall mediation on the association between bottled sugar-containing beverage intake and MetsC. After accounting for the UA- and HOMA-IR-derived detrimental effects, the fructose-rich tea beverage intake of >500 mL/day had a tea-related beneficial effect on MetsC, with an adjusted standardized coefficient of -0.103.

CONCLUSIONS

UA and HOMA-IR individually and jointly mediate the adverse effects of high fructose-rich SSB intake on the mechanisms underlying paediatric MetS. Fructose-free tea-based beverages may have a beneficial effect on latent MetS structure in adolescents.

Organisational changes and depression: The mediating role of psychosocial work exposures in the SUMER study

BACKGROUND

Studies are lacking on the associations between organisational changes and mental disorders and the underlying mechanisms. The objectives were to explore the associations between organisational changes and depression, measured using a validated instrument, and the mediating role of psychosocial work exposures.

METHODS

The study relied on the national representative sample of 25,977 employees of the French SUMER survey. The PHQ-9 instrument was used to measure depression. Weighted robust Poisson regression analyses were performed to explore the associations between organisational changes, psychosocial work exposures, and depression. The method by Karlson, Holm and Breen (KHB) was used to estimate the mediating role (contributions) of psychosocial work exposures in the associations between organisational changes and depression.

RESULTS

The exposure to any organisational change increased the risk of depression (Prevalence Ratio = 1.85, 95 % CI: 1.61-2.13). All types of organisational changes were found to be risk factors for depression. The risk of depression increased with the number of organisational changes. Psychosocial work exposures contributed to mediating the associations between organisational changes and depression. The exposures with the highest contributions were found to be high psychological demands, low esteem, low job promotion, low job security, workplace bullying, and ethical conflict. Taking all the exposures into account mediated the associations by 47-100 %.

LIMITATIONS

The study limitations included the cross-sectional design and a potential healthy worker effect.

CONCLUSIONS

More prevention oriented towards work organisation and the psychosocial work environment may help to reduce depression among working populations.

Mediating Effect of the Parent-Child Relationship on the Association Between Maternal Nurturance and Early Child Development: A Longitudinal Study During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Background

Research on the specific pathways from maternal nurturance to early child development remains limited. Grounded in transactional theory, this study is the first to examine these pathways through the parent-child relationship.

Methods

This longitudinal study involved mothers of children aged 1-3 years. Data on sociodemographic characteristics, Comprehensive General Parenting Questionnaire, and Child-Parent Relationship Scale were collected at Time 1, when children were 1 year old. At Time 2, when children were 3 years old, Caregiver-Reported Early Development Instruments were measured. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to explore direct and indirect pathways from maternal nurturance to early child development.

Results

A total of 1145 mother-child dyads participated, with children averaging 32 months (SD = 6.4) and mothers averaging 28.7 years (SD = 4.0). Maternal nurturance had significant direct (β = 0.271), indirect (β = 0.065), and total (β = 0.336) effects on early child development. Direct effects accounted for 80.7% of the total effects, while indirect effects accounted for 19.3%. Maternal nurturance indirectly predicted higher early child development through increased parent-child closeness (β = 0.048), explaining 14.3% of the total effects. Maternal nurturance indirectly promoted early child development through reduced parent-child conflict (β = 0.017), explaining 5.1% of the total effects.

Conclusion

The novelty of this study lies in its demonstration of the mediating role of the parent-child relationship in the effect of maternal nurturance on early child development. This longitudinal study provides insights for governments agencies, policymakers, and healthcare workers to develop intervention programs that enhance maternal nurturance through the parent-child relationship to promote early child development.

Causal effects of gut microbiota, metabolites, immune cells, liposomes, and inflammatory proteins on anorexia nervosa: A mediation joint multi-omics Mendelian randomization analysis

BACKGROUND

Anorexia nervosa (AN) is a significant psychological disorder influenced by environmental and genetic elements. Emerging research highlights the pivotal role of the gut microbiome in the development of diverse mental health conditions. This study aims to explore the causal effects and interactions of the gut microbiome, metabolites, immune cells, lipids, and inflammatory proteins on the risk of anorexia nervosa through mediation and multi-omics Mendelian Randomization (MR) analysis.

METHODS

This study used data from the FinnGen genome-wide association study (GWAS) of AN (N = 402,625), integrated with GWAS data on 473 of gut microbiota (N = 5959), 233 metabolites (N = 136,016), 731 immune cells (N = 3757), 179 lipids (N = 7174), and 91 inflammatory proteins (N = 14,824). This study used the univariate MR (UVMR), mediation MR analysis, and sensitivity analysis to assess the potential causal associations between these biomarkers and AN.

RESULTS

The inverse variance weighted (IVW) results suggest that 25 gut microbiota have causal effects on AN. Firmicutes E (OR: 0.294, 95 % CI: 0.107-0.806, P = 0.017), RUG147 (OR: 0.386, 95 % CI: 0.151-0.990, P = 0.048), CAG-977 (OR: 0.562, 95 % CI: 0.378-0.837, P = 0.005), Desulfobacterota A (OR: 0.651, 95 % CI: 0.466-0.909, P = 0.012), CAG-269 sp002372935 (OR: 0.673, 95 % CI: 0.483-0.937, P = 0.019), Klebsiella (OR: 0.684, 95 % CI: 0.566-0.827, P = 0.00009), Desulfovibrionia (OR: 0.706, 95 % CI: 0.538-0.926, P = 0.012), Klebsiella pneumoniae (OR: 0.737, 95 % CI: 0.600-0.906, P = 0.004), Desulfovibrionales (OR: 0.786, 95 % CI: 0.631-0.979, P = 0.031), CAG-776 (OR: 0.787, 95 % CI: 0.632-0.980, P = 0.032), Desulfovibrionaceae (OR: 0.788, 95 % CI: 0.635-0.978, P = 0.030). 13 gut microbiota were risk factors for AN, including Parachlamydiales (OR: 3.134，95%CI: 1.185-8.287, P = 0.021), Paenibacillus J (OR: 2.366，95%CI: 1.305-4.29, P = 0.005), Gillisia (OR: 1.947，95%CI: 1.135-3.339, P = 0.016), UBA1191 (OR: 1.856，95%CI: 1.221-2.822, P = 0.004), UBA7703 (OR: 1.843，95%CI: 1.032-3.289, P = 0.039), Faecalicatena sp002161355 (OR: 1.788，95%CI: 1.114-2.870, P = 0.016), Johnsonella ignava (OR: 1.742，95%CI: 1.031-2.944, P = 0.038), Staphylococcus aureus (OR: 1.614, 95%CI: 1.007-2.588, P = 0.047), Comamonas (OR: 1.522，95%CI: 1.004-2.307, P = 0.048), Ruminococcus D (OR: 1.24，95%CI: 1.050-1.464, P = 0.011), CAG-349 (OR: 1.198，95%CI: 1.048-1.370, P = 0.008), Ruminococcus D bicirculans (OR: 1.175，95%CI: 1.001-1.379, P = 0.048), CAG-177 (OR: 1.272，95%CI: 1.077-1.503, P = 0.005). Reverse MR analysis showed that causal effect of AN on 18 gut microbiota, but to a lesser extent. 12 metabolites have causal effects on AN. There are 7 protective factors, including glucose levels (OR: 0.700, 95%CI: 0.550-0.893, P = 0.004), isoleucine levels (OR: 0.769, 95%CI: 0.602-0.983, P = 0.036), phospholipids in large VLDL (OR: 0.856, 95%CI: 0.736-0.996, P = 0.044), total lipids in large VLDL (OR: 0.860, 95%CI: 0.740-0.999, P = 0.049), total lipids in small VLDL (OR: 0.863, 95%CI: 0.751-0.992, P = 0.038), free cholesterol in small VLDL (OR: 0.86, 95%CI: 0.752-0.996, P = 0.044), and free cholesterol in medium VLDL (OR: 0.866, 95%CI: 0.752-0.998, P = 0.047). There are 5 risk factors, including estimated degree of unsaturation (OR: 1.174, 95%CI: 1.009-1.367, P = 0.039), free cholesterol to total lipids ratio in small VLDL (OR: 1.199, 95%CI: 1.017-1.414, P = 0.031), phospholipids to total lipids ratio in small VLDL (OR: 1.216, 95%CI: 1.008-1.467, P = 0.041), total cholesterol levels in small HDL (OR: 1.241, 95%CI: 1.008-1.530, P = 0.042), and phospholipids to total lipids ratio in medium VLDL (OR: 1.280, 95%CI: 1.055-1.553, P = 0.012). Reverse MR analysis showed that AN had a causal effect on 15 metabolites. Mediation analysis reveals that the estimated degree of unsaturation mediates 0.69 % of the effect of Klebsiella pneumoniae on AN. Total lipids in small VLDL mediate 0.358 % of the effect of CAG-177 on AN, with a mediated proportion of 1.490 %. The mediation proportions for Estimated degree of unsaturation and Total lipids in small VLDL are relatively small. 36 immune cells have causal effects on AN. There are 7 protective factors, including Switched memory B cells %B cell (OR: 0.892，95%CI: 0.801-0.994, P = 0.038), CD127-CD8+ T cell absolute count (OR: 0.888，95%CI: 0.789-1.000, P = 0.049), IgD + CD24- B cell (OR: 0.917，95%CI: 0.862-0.975, P = 0.006), HVEM+ T cell (OR: 0.945，95%CI: 0.894-0.999, P = 0.045), CD40 + CD14 + CD16- monocyte (OR: 0.937，95%CI: 0.882-0.996, P = 0.038), CD64 + CD14 + CD16- monocyte (OR: 0.966，95%CI: 0.939-0.993, P = 0.016), CD8+ natural killer T cells (OR: 0.911，95%CI: 0.836-0.992, P = 0.032), HLA-DR+ T cells (OR: 0.921，95%CI: 0.866-0.980, P = 0.010), CD28-CD8+ T cells (OR: 0.886，95%CI: 0.792-0.991, P = 0.034). There are 26 risk factors. Reverse MR analysis showed that AN had a causal effect on 31 immune cells. AN increases the expression levels of five types of immune cells, including CD40 + CD14-CD16+ monocytes (OR: 1.087，95%CI: 1.004-1.177, P = 0.041), PDL-1+ CD14-CD16+ monocytes (OR: 1.082，95%CI: 1.002-1.168, P = 0.046), CD45+ CD33dim HLA-DR+ cells (OR: 1.145，95%CI: 1.019-1.287, P = 0.023), CD45+ basophils (OR: 1.164，95%CI: 1.036-1.307, P = 0.011), CD8+ natural killer T cells (OR: 1.102, 95%CI: 1.015-1.196, P = 0.020), and also decreases the expression levels of 26 immune cells. 6 liposomes showed exhibit protective effects against AN, including phosphatidylcholine (18:0_20:3) levels (OR: 0.852, 95%CI: 0.740-0.981, P = 0.026), phosphatidylcholine (O-18:2_18:1) levels (OR: 0.800, 95%CI: 0.672-0.952, P = 0.012), phosphatidylinositol (18:0_18:1) levels (OR: 0.873, 95%CI: 0.773-0.986, P = 0.029), phosphatidylinositol (18:1_18:2) levels (OR: 0.844, 95%CI: 0.734-0.971, P = 0.018), sphingomyelin (d38:1) levels (OR: 0.903，95%CI: 0.820-0.995, P = 0.039), and triacylglycerol (56:4) levels (OR: 0.786, 95%CI: 0.660-0.936, P = 0.007). There are 3 risk factors, including diacylglycerol (16:1_18:1) levels (OR: 1.208, 95%CI: 1.040-1.404, P = 0.014), phosphatidylcholine (18:1_18:3) levels (OR: 1.237, 95%CI: 1.003-1.526, P = 0.047), and phosphatidylinositol (16:0_20:4) levels (OR: 1.148, 95%CI: 1.003-1.314, P = 0.045). Reverse MR analysis showed that AN had a causal effect on 3 phosphatidylcholine (15:0_18:2) levels (OR: 1.075, 95%CI: 1.001-1.154, P = 0.048), phosphatidylcholine (O-16:2_18:0) levels (OR: 1.078, 95%CI: 1.002-1.159, P = 0.043), and triacylglycerol (51:1) levels (OR: 0.919, 95%CI: 0.850-0.994, P = 0.035). 6 inflammatory proteins have causal effects on AN, with protective factors including Glial cell line-derived neurotrophic factor levels (OR: 0.822，95%CI: 0.692-0.978, P = 0.027) and Interleukin-15 receptor subunit alpha levels (OR: 0.886, 95%CI: 0.789-0.995, P = 0.041) and risk factors including CC motif chemokine 4 levels (OR: 1.126, 95%CI: 1.011-1.254, P = 0.031), Interleukin-12 subunit beta levels (OR: 1.135, 95%CI: 1.033-1.248, P = 0.008), Monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 levels (OR: 1.152, 95%CI: 1.010-1.314, P = 0.035), and Sulfotransferase 1A1 levels (OR: 1.166, 95%CI: 1.006-1.351, P = 0.042). Reverse MR analysis showed that AN had a causal effect on Transforming growth factor-alpha (OR: 1.054，95%CI: 1.010-1.101, P = 0.016).

CONCLUSIONS

This study used large-scale and novel GWAS data, for the first time reveals through mediation analysis and multi-omics MR analysis the roles of gut microbiota, metabolites, immune cells, lipids, and inflammatory proteins in the pathogenesis of AN. These findings provide new biomarkers and targets for further prevention and treatment strategies.

Modifiable factors mediating the effects of educational attainment on gestational diabetes mellitus: A two-step Mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND

Although there is currently a wealth of evidence to indicate that maternal educational attainment is associated with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), the specific modifiable risk factors that mediate the causal relationship between these two variables have yet to be identified.

AIM

To identify the specific modifiable risk factors that mediate the causal relationship between the level of maternal education and GDM.

METHODS

Mendelian randomization (MR) was conducted using data from genome-wide association studies of European populations. We initially performed a two-sample MR analysis using data on genetic variants associated with the duration of education as instruments, and subsequently adopted a two-step MR approach using metabolic and lifestyle factors as mediators to examine the mechanisms underlying the relationship between the level of maternal education and risk of developing GDM. In addition, we calculated the proportions of total causal effects mediated by identified metabolic and lifestyle factors.

RESULTS

A genetically predicted higher educational attainment was found to be associated with a lower risk of developing GDM (OR: 0.71, 95%CI: 0.60-0.84). Among the metabolic factors assessed, four emerged as potential mediators of the education-GDM association, which, ranked by mediated proportions, were as follows: Waist-to-hip-ratio (31.56%, 95%CI: 12.38%-50.70%), body mass index (19.20%, 95%CI: 12.03%-26.42%), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (12.81%, 95%CI: 8.65%-17.05%), and apolipoprotein A-1 (7.70%, 95%CI: 4.32%-11.05%). These findings proved to be robust to sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSION

Our findings indicate a causal relationship between lower levels of maternal education and the risk of developing GDM can be partly explained by adverse metabolic profiles.

The Causal Relationships Between Gut Microbiota, Brain Volume, and Intelligence: A Two-Step Mendelian Randomization Analysis

BACKGROUND

Growing evidence indicates that dynamic changes in gut microbiome can affect intelligence; however, whether these relationships are causal remains elusive. We aimed to disentangle the poorly understood causal relationship between gut microbiota and intelligence.

METHODS

We performed a 2-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis using genetic variants from the largest available genome-wide association studies of gut microbiota (N = 18,340) and intelligence (N = 269,867). The inverse-variance weighted method was used to conduct the MR analyses complemented by a range of sensitivity analyses to validate the robustness of the results. Considering the close relationship between brain volume and intelligence, we applied 2-step MR to evaluate whether the identified effect was mediated by regulating brain volume (N = 47,316).

RESULTS

We found a risk effect of the genus Oxalobacter on intelligence (odds ratio = 0.968 change in intelligence per standard deviation increase in taxa; 95% CI, 0.952-0.985; p = 1.88 × 10-4) and a protective effect of the genus Fusicatenibacter on intelligence (odds ratio = 1.053; 95% CI, 1.024-1.082; p = 3.03 × 10-4). The 2-step MR analysis further showed that the effect of genus Fusicatenibacter on intelligence was partially mediated by regulating brain volume, with a mediated proportion of 33.6% (95% CI, 6.8%-60.4%; p = .014).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results provide causal evidence indicating the role of the microbiome in intelligence. Our findings may help reshape our understanding of the microbiota-gut-brain axis and development of novel intervention approaches for preventing cognitive impairment.

Causal relationships between dyslexia and the risk of eight dementias

Observational and genetic studies have reported the relationship between dyslexia and Alzheimer's disease (AD). Until now, the causal effect of dyslexia on AD risk has remained unclear. We conducted a two-sample univariable Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis to determine the causal association between dyslexia and the risk of AD, vascular dementia (VD), Lewy body dementia (LBD), and frontotemporal dementia (FTD) and its four subtypes. First, we selected 42 dyslexia genetic variants from a large-scale genome-wide association studies (GWAS) dataset and extracted their corresponding GWAS summary statistics from AD, VD, LBD, and FTD. Second, we selected four MR methods, including inverse-variance weighted (IVW), weighted median, MR-Egger, and MR-PRESSO. Heterogeneity, horizontal pleiotropy, and leave-one-out sensitivity analysis were then used to evaluate the reliability of all causal estimates. We also conducted multivariable MR (MVMR) and mediation analysis to assess the potential mediating role of cognitive performance (CP) or educational achievement (EA) on the causal association between dyslexia and AD. Two MVMR methods, including MV IVW and MV-Egger, and two-step MR were used to perform the analysis. Using IVW, we found a significant causal association between increased dyslexia and increased risk of AD (OR = 1.15, 95% CI: 1.04-1.28, P = 0.006), but not VD, LBD, FTD, or its four subtypes. MR-PRESSO further supported the statistically significant association between dyslexia and AD (OR = 1.15, 95% CI: 1.05-1.27, P = 0.006). All sensitivity analyses confirmed the reliability of causal estimates. Using MV IVW and mediation analysis, we found no causal relationship between dyslexia and AD after adjusting for CP but not EA, CP mediated the total effect of dyslexia on AD with a proportion of 46.32%. We provide genetic evidence to support a causal effect of increased dyslexia on increased risk of AD, which was largely mediated by CP. Reading activity may be a potential intervention strategy for AD by improving cognitive function.

Causal effects and metabolites mediators between immune cell and risk of colorectal cancer: a Mendelian randomization study

Objective

The involvement of immune cells in colorectal cancer (CRC) and their interplay with metabolic disorders are yet to be fully elucidated. This study examines how peripheral immune cells, inferred genetically, affect CRC and investigates the intermediary roles of metabolites.

Methods

We employed a two-sample bidirectional Mendelian randomization (MR) approach to assess the causal influence of immune cells on CRC. Additionally, a two-step MR strategy was utilized to pinpoint potential metabolites that mediate this effect. Our analysis incorporated data from genome-wide association studies (GWAS), involving 731 immune cell types, 1,400 metabolites, and CRC outcomes. The primary method of analysis was randomized inverse variance weighting (IVW), supported by MR-Egger, weighted median, simple mode, and weighted mode analyses. Sensitivity checks were conducted using Cochran's Q test, MR-PRESSO test, MR-Egger regression intercept, and leave-one-out analysis.

Results

The study identified 23 immune cell types and 17 metabolites that are causally linked to CRC. Our mediation analysis highlighted that nine metabolites act as intermediaries in the relationship between nine specific immune cells and CRC risk. Notably, The ratios of Adenosine 5'-monophosphate (AMP) to aspartate and Retinol (Vitamin A) to linoleoyl-arachidonoyl-glycerol (18:2 to 20:4) were found to concurrently mediate the promoting effects of Myeloid DC %DC and BAFF-R on B cells in colorectal cancer (CRC). Moreover, iminodiacetate (IDA) was found to mediate the protective effect of CD14+ CD16- monocytes on CRC, contributing 11.8% to this mediation. In contrast, IDA was also seen to decrease the protective effect of IgD+ CD38br %B cells on CRC risk, with a mediation effect proportion of -10.4%.

Conclusion

This study delineates a complex network involving immune cells, metabolites, and CRC, suggesting a multifaceted pathophysiological interaction. The identified causal links and mediation pathways underscore potential therapeutic targets, providing a foundation for interventions aimed at modulating immune responses to manage CRC.

SLAMF1 as a novel molecule mediating the causal association between rheumatoid arthritis and interstitial lung disease: A Mendelian randomization study combined with transcriptomics and in vivo validation

BACKGROUND

Rheumatoid arthritis-associated interstitial lung disease (RA-ILD) is a common complication of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) that result in significant morbidity and mortality. Understanding the molecular mechanisms underlying RA-ILD is crucial for effective prevention. This study aims to identify the specific molecule that mediate the causal association between RA and ILD, as well as to explore its potential mechanisms in the pathogenesis of RA-ILD.

METHODS

Using two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses, we investigated the causal relationship among 16,987 blood genes, RA and ILD. Subsequently, a two-step MR technique was employed to identify significant genes that mediate the association between RA and ILD, and to quantify their proportion of mediation effect. To validate the genes as mediators, the replication MR analysis was conducted and the in vivo experiment was performed using an established animal model of RA-ILD. Furthermore, integrated bioinformatic analyses were conducted to elucidate the specific biological functions of the determined mediator in pathogenesis of RA-ILD.

RESULTS

Nine genes, namely MAPK8IP2, TAF11, SLAMF1, DAB2IP, GLUL, SLC4A10, PRSS35, NFX1, and PLK3, were identified as mediators. Among them, SLAMF1 was validated as the most significant mediator, accounting for 4.693% of the mediating effect on the causal relationship between RA and ILD. Upregulated mRNA expression of SLAMF1 was observed in the animal model of RA-ILD compared to controls. Bioinformatic analyses revealed that SLAMF1 was overexpressed in patients with lung fibrosis and correlated with a poor prognosis. Specifically, SLAMF1 was found to be predominantly overexpressed in T cells in lung tissues of patients with lung fibrosis. Additionally, the functional role of SLAMF1 was associated with multiple immune cell infiltrations and the biological process of extracellular matrix synthesis in pulmonary tissues from patients with lung fibrosis.

CONCLUSION

SLAMF1 may play a crucial role as a molecular mediator in the causal association between RA and ILD, and participate in multiple mechanisms underlying the pathogenesis of RA-ILD. This research provides insights into how the development of RA influences the risk of ILD and offers potential interventional targets against RA-ILD.

Mediation Analysis with Multiple Exposures and Multiple Mediators

A mediation analysis approach is proposed for multiple exposures, multiple mediators, and a continuous scalar outcome under the linear structural equation modeling framework. It assumes that there exist orthogonal components that demonstrate parallel mediation mechanisms on the outcome, and thus is named principal component mediation analysis (PCMA). Likelihood-based estimators are introduced for simultaneous estimation of the component projections and effect parameters. The asymptotic distribution of the estimators is derived for low-dimensional data. A bootstrap procedure is introduced for inference. Simulation studies illustrate the superior performance of the proposed approach. Applied to a proteomics-imaging dataset from the Alzheimer's disease neuroimaging initiative (ADNI), the proposed framework identifies protein deposition - brain atrophy - memory deficit mechanisms consistent with existing knowledge and suggests potential AD pathology by integrating data collected from different modalities.

Redlining in New York City: impacts on particulate matter exposure during pregnancy and birth outcomes

BACKGROUND

Evidence suggests historical redlining shaped the built environment and health outcomes in urban areas. Only a handful of studies have examined redlining's association with air pollution and adverse birth outcomes in New York City (NYC). Additionally, no NYC-specific studies have examined the impact of redlining on birth weight.

METHODS

This longitudinal cohort study analysed data from the National Institute of Health Environmental Influences on Child Health Outcomes Programme to investigate the extent to which maternal residence in a historically redlined neighbourhood is associated with fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure during pregnancy using multivariable regression models. Additionally, we examined how maternal residence in a historically redlined neighbourhood during pregnancy influenced birth weight z-score, preterm birth and low birth weight.

RESULTS

Our air pollution model showed that living in a historically redlined census tract or an ungraded census tract was associated with increased PM2.5 exposure during pregnancy. We also found living in a historically redlined census tract or an ungraded census tract was associated with a lower birth weight z-score. This finding remained significant when controlling for individual and census tract-level race, ethnicity and income. When we controlled PM2.5 in our models assessing the relationship between redlining grade and birth outcome, our results did not change.

DISCUSSION

Our study supports the literature linking redlining to contemporary outcomes. However, our research in ungraded tracts suggests redlining alone is insufficient to fully explain inequality in birth outcomes and PM2.5 levels today.

The association among multiple-site chronic pain, sedentary behavior, and major depressive disorders: a mendelian randomization study

OBJECTIVE

Observational studies have reported that major depressive disorder (MDD) is associated with sedentary behavior (SB) and multiple chronic pain (MCP), but their associations remain unclear. Mendelian randomization analysis was used to assess the association.

METHODS

Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with MCP, SB [time spent watching television (Tel), using a computer (Com), or driving (Dri)], and MDD were collected from genome-wide association studies and screened as instrumental variants with a threshold of 1 × 10-5. Mendelian randomization was performed to examine their associations. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to evaluate robustness.

RESULTS

MCP was associated with a higher risk of MDD [odds ratio (OR) inverse variance weighting (IVW) = 1.88; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.64-2.15; P = 4.26 × 10-8), and causally related to SB (Tel: ORIVW = 1.23; 95% CI, 1.19-1.26; P = 6.02 × 10-38) (Dri: ORIVW = 1.05; 95% CI, 1.03-1.08; P = 3.92 × 10-5). Causality of SB on MCP was detected for Tel (ORIVW = 1.46; 95% CI, 1.39-1.53; P = 1.40 × 10-54) and Com (ORIVW = 0.88; 95% CI, 0.83-0.93; P = 2.50 × 10-6). No association was observed for SB on MDD. There is currently insufficient evidence to support that leisure activities are a mediating factor in MCP-induced MDD.

CONCLUSION

There are complex relationships among MCP, SB, and MDD. More research and learning about potential relationships and mechanisms among these phenotypes should be supplied.

Metabolic Characteristics of Gut Microbiota and Insomnia: Evidence from a Mendelian Randomization Analysis

Insomnia is a common sleep disorder that significantly impacts individuals' sleep quality and daily life. Recent studies have suggested that gut microbiota may influence sleep through various metabolic pathways. This study aims to explore the causal relationships between the abundance of gut microbiota metabolic pathways and insomnia using Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis. This two-sample MR study used genetic data from the OpenGWAS database (205 gut bacterial pathway abundance) and the FinnGen database (insomnia-related data). We identified single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with gut bacterial pathway abundance as instrumental variables (IVs) and ensured their validity through stringent selection criteria and quality control measures. The primary analysis employed the inverse variance-weighted (IVW) method, supplemented by other MR methods, to estimate causal effects. The MR analysis revealed significant positive causal effects of specific carbohydrate, amino acid, and nucleotide metabolism pathways on insomnia. Key pathways, such as gluconeogenesis pathway (GLUCONEO.PWY) and TCA cycle VII acetate producers (PWY.7254), showed positive associations with insomnia (B > 0, p < 0.05). Conversely, pathways like hexitol fermentation to lactate, formate, ethanol and acetate pathway (P461.PWY) exhibited negative causal effects (B < 0, p < 0.05). Multivariable MR analysis confirmed the independent causal effects of these pathways (p < 0.05). Sensitivity analyses indicated no significant pleiotropy or heterogeneity, ensuring the robustness of the results. This study identifies specific gut microbiota metabolic pathways that play critical roles in the development of insomnia. These findings provide new insights into the biological mechanisms underlying insomnia and suggest potential targets for therapeutic interventions. Future research should further validate these causal relationships and explore how modulating gut microbiota or its metabolic products can effectively improve insomnia symptoms, leading to more personalized and precise treatment strategies.

Periconceptional maternal supplement intake and human embryonic growth, development, and birth outcomes: the Rotterdam Periconception Cohort

STUDY QUESTION

Is periconceptional multiple-micronutrient supplement (MMS) use including folic acid (FA) compared to FA use only associated with increased embryonic growth, development, and birth weight in a high-risk population?

SUMMARY ANSWER

Women with MMS intake show no significant differences in first-trimester morphological embryo development, but increased first-trimester embryonic growth trajectories and fewer neonates born small for gestational age (SGA), less than the 3rd percentile (

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Periconceptional maternal FA intake in the general population is associated with increased embryonic and fetal growth, and reduced risks of neural tube defects, other congenital malformations, low birth weight, and neonates born SGA.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

A prospective tertiary hospital-based cohort study (the Rotterdam Periconceptional Cohort) was conducted from January 2010 to December 2020.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

We included 1076 women from the Rotterdam Periconceptional Cohort, before 10 weeks of pregnancy with follow-up until delivery. Embryonic growth was assessed by measurement of crown-rump length (CRL) and embryonic volume (EV), and embryonic morphology was described by Carnegie stages using longitudinal three-dimensional ultrasound scans and virtual reality techniques. Birth outcomes were extracted from medical records. General characteristics and supplement use were extracted from research questionnaires.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

This study showed increased embryonic growth trajectories (adjusted models, CRL: β = 0.052, 95% CI 0.012-0.090, EV: β = 0.022, 95% CI 0.002-0.042) in women using MMS compared to those using only FA. Moreover, a 45% reduced risk of a neonate-born SGA (

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

Following the heterogeneity of the composition and dose of MMS preparations, it is unclear which specific micronutrient, combination, or dose explains the increased embryonic growth trajectory and reduction in risk for SGA. This also hampers the possibility of differentiating between the effects of FA alone or as a component of MMS.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

Our findings emphasize the importance of periconceptional maternal MMS use as a potential preventative intervention against reduced embryonic growth and neonates born SGA. Therefore, we recommend the periconceptional use of MMS in women at risk of inadequate micronutrient intake. However, awareness of potentially harmful side effects of high doses and combinations of micronutrients is essential, therefore the optimal composition and dose need to be investigated, and careful surveillance is recommended.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

This research was funded by the Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, and the ZonMw grant Open Competition 2018 (09120011910046). The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NTR4356.

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Key Words

• birth weight
• embryo
• maternal supplement intake
• multivitamins
• pregnancy

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MESH Headings

• Humans
• Female
• Pregnancy
• Dietary Supplements
• Folic Acid/administration & dosage
• Adult
• Embryonic Development/drug effects
• Infant, Newborn
• Prospective Studies
• Infant, Small for Gestational Age
• Birth Weight/drug effects
• Netherlands/epidemiology
• Pregnancy Outcome
• Preconception Care
• Fetal Development/drug effects
• Cohort Studies
• Ultrasonography, Prenatal
• Pregnancy Trimester, First

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Grants

• 09120011910046 Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center

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Affiliation(s)

N Schenkelaars Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
S Schoenmakers Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
M Rousian Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
S P Willemsen Department of Biostatistics, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
M M Faas Department of Pathology and Medical Biology, University of Groningen and University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
R P M Steegers-Theunissen Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands

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Does pain tolerance mediate the effect of physical activity on chronic pain in the general population? The Tromsø Study

ABSTRACT

Knowledge is needed regarding mechanisms acting between physical activity (PA) and chronic pain. We investigated whether cold pain tolerance mediates an effect of leisure-time physical activity on the risk of chronic pain 7 to 8 years later using consecutive surveys of the population-based Tromsø Study. We included participants with information on baseline leisure-time PA (LTPA) and the level of cold pressor-assessed cold pain tolerance, who reported chronic pain status at follow-up as any of the following: chronic pain for ≥3 months, widespread chronic pain, moderate-to-severe chronic pain, or widespread moderate-to-severe chronic pain. We included 6834 participants (52% women; mean age, 55 years) in counterfactual mediation analyses. Prevalence decreased with severity, for example, 60% for chronic pain vs 5% for widespread moderate-to-severe chronic pain. People with one level higher LTPA rating (light to moderate or moderate to vigorous) at baseline had lower relative risk (RR) of 4 chronic pain states 7 to 8 years later. Total RR effect of a 1-level LTPA increase was 0.95 (0.91-1.00), that is, -5% decreased risk. Total effect RR for widespread chronic pain was 0.84 (0.73-0.97). Indirect effect for moderate-to-severe chronic pain was statistically significant at RR 0.993 (0.988-0.999); total effect RR was 0.91 (0.83-0.98). Statistically significantly mediated RR for widespread moderate-to-severe chronic pain was 0.988 (0.977-0.999); total effect RR was 0.77 (0.64-0.94). This shows small mediation of the effect of LTPA through pain tolerance on 2 moderate-to-severe chronic pain types. This suggests pain tolerance to be one possible mechanism through which PA modifies the risk of moderate-to-severe chronic pain types with and without widespread pain.

Large-scale greenway exposure reduces sedentary behavior: A natural experiment in China

As a global public health problem, sedentary behavior has attracted more and more attention. Although numerous studies have demonstrated many benefits of green spaces to health, causal evidence on how green spaces affect people's sedentary behavior is scarce. This study used a natural experiment to evaluate the impact of greenway intervention on sedentary behavior. Two waves of data were collected in 2016 and 2019 (before and after the intervention) at East Lake Greenway (102-km-long) in Wuhan, China, with 1020 participants in 52 neighborhoods. We adopted three major methods to evaluate the impact of greenway intervention on sedentary behavior, including Propensity Score Matching and difference-in-difference (PSM-DID) method (with both individual and neighborhood variables to match samples), continuous treatment DID method (with distance to the greenway as the continuous treatment), and mediation analysis (with moderate to vigorous physical activity or MVPA, and walking time as the mediator). The results revealed that the greenway intervention significantly reduced participants' sedentary time and the intervention has a distance decay effect. The closer to the greenway, the greater decrease in sedentary time after the greenway opening. Furthermore, we found that MVPA and walking time mediate the impact of the greenway intervention on the change in sedentary behavior. The effect of greenway intervention was more beneficial for those under the age of 60, those who were employed, or those who were married. Our findings provided robust evidence that exposure to urban greenways affects sedentary behavior and such green infrastructures help protect public health in high-density urban areas.

Modifiable risk factors mediating the impact of educational inequality on heart failure: A Mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND

Heart failure (HF) is a rapidly growing global disease burden with high mortality rates. We aimed to utilize mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to investigate the association between educational attainment (EA) and HF, and to evaluate the contribution of modifiable risk factors as mediators.

METHODS

We applied a two-sample MR approach based on the largest genome-wide association studies (GWAS) to investigate the causal relationship between EA and HF. Data collection was conducted in July 2023. We then conducted mediation analyses to explore whether body mass index (BMI), blood pressure, and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) mediate the effect of EA on HF, and utilized multivariable MR to estimate the proportion of mediation attributed to these factors.

RESULTS

Genetically predicted 3.4 years of additional education was associated with a decrease in the risk of HF (OR 0.76 for each 3.4 years of schooling; 95% CI 0.72, 0.81). BMI, T2DM, systolic blood pressure, and diastolic blood pressure mediated 40.82% (95% CI: 28.86%, 52.77%), 18.00% (95% CI: 12.10%, 23.90%), 11.60% (95% CI: 7.63%, 15.56%), and 7.80% (95% CI: 4.63%, 10.96%) of the EA-HF association, respectively. All risk factors combined were estimated to mediate 63.81% (95% CI: 45.91%, 81.71%) of the effect of EA on HF.

CONCLUSION

Higher EA has a protective effect against the risk of HF, and potential mechanisms may include regulation of BMI, blood pressure, and blood glucose. Further research is needed to understand whether interventions targeting these factors could influence the association between EA and HF risk.

Long-term burden and increasing trends of body mass index are linked with adult hypertension through triglyceride-glucose index: A 30-year prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Insulin resistance (IR) has previously been associated with hypertension, and obesity is a risk factor for IR and hypertension. There is likely an association between body mass index (BMI) and risk for hypertension through the triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index but this relationship remains uncharacterized.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This study is based on the Hanzhong Adolescent Hypertension Cohort, which is an ongoing prospective study established in 1987. The TyG index was calculated as ln [fasting triglyceride (mg/dl) × fasting plasma glucose (mg/dl)/2]. The total area under the curve (AUCt) and incremental AUC (AUCi) were calculated as the long-term burden and trend of BMI, respectively. We found that BMI AUCt and BMI AUCi were significantly associated with the risk of adult hypertension, both without (RR = 1.30/1.31 for BMI AUCt/AUCi) and with (RR = 1.25/1.26 for BMI AUCt/AUCi) the inclusion of the TyG index as a covariate. Importantly, mediation analysis revealed that the TyG index mediated the BMI AUCt-SBP association (19.3%), the BMI AUCt-DBP association (22.7%), the BMI AUCi-SBP association (18.5%) and the BMI AUCi-DBP association (21.3%). Furthermore, the TyG index had a significant mediating effect of 15.9% on the BMI AUCt-hypertension association and 14.9% on the BMI AUCi-hypertension association.

CONCLUSION

These findings suggest that the TyG index plays an important mediating role in the association between the cumulative burden and increasing trends of BMI originating in childhood and the risk of hypertension in midlife. We emphasize that early weight management has the potential to reduce the burden of hypertension caused by IR.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The study was clinically registered at the ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02734472) and approved by the Academic Committee of the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University (XJTU1AF2015LSL-047).

Delirium Mediated the Association Between a History of Falls and Short-Term Mortality Risk in Critically Ill Ischemic Stroke Patients

Patients with ischemic stroke have an increased propensity to fall, resulting in significant physical and psychological distress. This study examined the association between falls in the 3 months prior to intensive care unit (ICU) admission and mortality within 28 days among 2950 adult ICU patients diagnosed with ischemic stroke from 2008 to 2019, focusing on the potential mediating role of delirium. The primary outcomes were short-term mortality (28, 60, and 90 days) and the risk of delirium. Each patient was followed for at least 1 year. Delirium was primarily assessed using the Confusion Assessment Method for the ICU and by reviewing nursing notes. Group differences between patients with and without a history of falls were compared using the Wilcoxon rank-sum test or the chi-squared test. Cox proportional risk or logistic regression models were used to explore the association between fall history and outcomes, and causal mediation analysis was performed. Results showed that patients with a recent fall history had a significantly increased risk of 28-day (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.62, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.35-1.94), 60-day (HR: 1.67, 95% CI: 1.42-1.98), and 90-day mortality (HR: 1.66, 95% CI: 1.41-1.95), as well as an increased risk of delirium (odds ratio: 2.00, 95% CI: 1.66-2.42). Delirium significantly mediated the association between fall history and 28-day mortality (total effect: HR: 1.77, 95% CI: 1.45-2.16; natural indirect effect: HR: 1.12, 95% CI: 1.05-1.21; proportion mediated: 24.6%). These findings suggest that ischemic stroke patients with a recent fall have an increased risk of short-term mortality, partly mediated by delirium. Strategies aimed at preventing delirium may potentially improve prognosis in this patient population.

The mediation effects of malalignment on the relation of sex to the risk of incidence tibiofemoral osteoarthritis

OBJECTIVE

To investigate to what extent the higher risk of tibiofemoral radiographic osteoarthritis (TFROA) in females vs. males can be explained by knee malalignment.

DESIGN

Using data from Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study (MOST) and Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI), we examined the relation of sex to the incident medial and lateral TFROA and performed mediation analyses to assess to what extent varus and valgus malalignments account for sex differences in the incident medial or lateral TFROA.

RESULTS

Of the 3462 knees without medial and lateral TFROA in MOST, the 7-year risks of medial and lateral TFROA were 16.9% and 10.0% in females, and 15.8% and 4.2% in males, respectively. Females had 2.31-fold (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 1.73 to 3.08) higher incident lateral TFROA than males, and the relative risk (RR) of the indirect effect of sex on lateral TFROA through valgus malalignment was 1.15 (95% CI: 1.09 to 1.20), accounting for 23% of its total effect on lateral TFROA. In OAI (n = 3095 knees), females had 1.54-fold (95% CI: 1.15 to 2.04) higher incident lateral TFROA than males, and RR of the indirect effect of sex on lateral TFROA through valgus malalignment was 1.10 (95% CI: 1.04 to 1.21), accounting for 26% of its total effect on lateral TFROA. No apparent sex difference in the incident medial TFROA was found in MOST (RR = 1.05, 95% CI: 0.89 to 1.25) or OAI (RR = 1.02, 95% CI: 0.84 to 1.19).

CONCLUSION

Females had a higher risk of developing lateral TFROA than males; however, valgus malalignment only modestly explained such a difference.

Behavioral risk factors and socioeconomic inequalities in ischemic heart disease mortality in the United States: A causal mediation analysis using record linkage data

BACKGROUND

Ischemic heart disease (IHD) is a major cause of death in the United States (US), with marked mortality inequalities. Previous studies have reported inconsistent findings regarding the contributions of behavioral risk factors (BRFs) to socioeconomic inequalities in IHD mortality. To our knowledge, no nationwide study has been conducted on this topic in the US.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

In this cohort study, we obtained data from the 1997 to 2018 National Health Interview Survey with mortality follow-up until December 31, 2019 from the National Death Index. A total of 524,035 people aged 25 years and older were followed up for 10.3 years on average (SD: 6.1 years), during which 13,256 IHD deaths occurred. Counterfactual-based causal mediation analyses with Cox proportional hazards models were performed to quantify the contributions of 4 BRFs (smoking, alcohol use, physical inactivity, and BMI) to socioeconomic inequalities in IHD mortality. Education was used as the primary indicator for socioeconomic status (SES). Analyses were performed stratified by sex and adjusted for marital status, race and ethnicity, and survey year. In both males and females, clear socioeconomic gradients in IHD mortality were observed, with low- and middle-education people bearing statistically significantly higher risks compared to high-education people. We found statistically significant natural direct effects of SES (HR = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.06, 1.27 in males; HR = 1.28, 95% CI: 1.10, 1.49 in females) on IHD mortality and natural indirect effects through the causal pathways of smoking (HR = 1.18, 95% CI: 1.15, 1.20 in males; HR = 1.11, 95% CI: 1.08, 1.13 in females), physical inactivity (HR = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.14, 1.19 in males; HR = 1.18, 95% CI: 1.15, 1.20 in females), alcohol use (HR = 1.07, 95% CI: 1.06, 1.09 in males; HR = 1.09, 95% CI: 1.08, 1.11 in females), and BMI (HR = 1.03, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.04 in males; HR = 1.03, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.04 in females). Smoking, physical inactivity, alcohol use, and BMI mediated 29% (95% CI, 24%, 35%), 27% (95% CI, 22%, 33%), 12% (95% CI, 10%, 16%), and 5% (95% CI, 4%, 7%) of the inequalities in IHD mortality between low- and high-education males, respectively; the corresponding proportions mediated were 16% (95% CI, 11%, 23%), 26% (95% CI, 20%, 34%), 14% (95% CI, 11%, 19%), and 5% (95% CI, 3%, 7%) in females. Proportions mediated were slightly lower with family income used as the secondary indicator for SES. The main limitation of the methodology is that we could not rule out residual exposure-mediator, exposure-outcome, and mediator-outcome confounding.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, BRFs explained more than half of the educational differences in IHD mortality, with some variations by sex. Public health interventions to reduce intermediate risk factors are crucial to reduce the socioeconomic disparities and burden of IHD mortality in the general US population.

Biological Age, Chronological Age, and Survival in Pulmonary Fibrosis: A Causal Mediation Analysis

Rationale: Accelerated biological aging has been implicated in the development of interstitial lung disease (ILD) and other diseases of aging but remains poorly understood. Objectives: To identify plasma proteins that mediate the relationship between chronological age and survival association in patients with ILD. Methods: Causal mediation analysis was performed to identify plasma proteins that mediated the chronological age-survival relationship in an idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis discovery cohort. Proteins mediating this relationship after adjustment for false discovery were advanced for testing in an independent ILD validation cohort and explored in a chronic obstructive pulmonary disease cohort. A proteomic-based measure of biological age was constructed and survival analysis performed, assessing the impact of biological age and peripheral blood telomere length on the chronological age-survival relationship. Measurements and Main Results: Twenty-two proteins mediated the chronological age-survival relationship after adjustment for false discovery in the idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis discovery cohort (n = 874), with 19 remaining significant mediators of this relationship in the ILD validation cohort (n = 983) and one mediating this relationship in the chronic obstructive pulmonary disease cohort. Latent transforming growth factor-β binding protein 2 and ectodysplasin A2 receptor showed the strongest mediation across cohorts. A proteomic measure of biological age completely attenuated the chronological age-survival association and better discriminated survival than chronological age. Results were robust to adjustment for peripheral blood telomere length, which did not mediate the chronological age-survival relationship. Conclusions: Molecular measures of aging completely mediate the relationship between chronological age and survival, suggesting that chronological age has no direct effect on ILD survival.

Mediation effect of stroke recurrence in the association between post-stroke lactate dehydrogenase and functional disability

Background

We aimed to use lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) as a marker of inflammation burden and quantify post-stroke inflammation's direct and indirect effect on functional disability.

Methods

We analyzed 5,129 patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) admitted to Shenyang First People's Hospital. Stroke recurrence and functional outcome measured by the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) were assessed at 90 days. Functional disability was defined as mRS score > 2. Receiver operating characteristic curve and restricted cubic spline (RCS) analysis were conducted to illustrate the associations between LDH levels and 90-day functional outcomes in patients with AIS. Mediation analyses were performed to examine the potential causal chain in which stroke recurrence may mediate the relationship between LDH and functional outcome. Positive correlation between LDH and hs-CRP was found and mediation effects of stroke recurrence in the association between LDH or hs-CRP and functional disability were both less than 20%. Sensitivity analyses in different subgroups showed comparable results.

Results

Among 5,129 included AIS patients, the median (IQR) level of LDH was 186 (161-204.4) U/L. Functional disability was seen in 1200 (23.4%) patients and recurrence was observed in 371(7.2%) patients at 90-day follow-up. Each standard deviation increase in the concentration of LDH was linked to an increased risk of functional disability (adjusted odds ratio[aOR], 1.07; 95%CI,1.04-1.09) and stroke recurrence (aOR,1.02; 95%CI, 1.01-1.04) within 90 days. The highest quartile of LDH (>204.2 U/L) had an elevated risk of suffering functional disability (aOR, 1.21; 95%CI, 1.00-1.47) and recurrence (aOR, 1.21; 95%CI,1.00-1.47) compared with the lowest quartile of LDH (<161 U/L). Stroke recurrence during follow-up explained 12.90% (95%CI, 6.22-21.16%) of the relationship between LDH and functional disability. Positive correlation between LDH and hs-CRP was found and mediation effects of recurrence in the association between LDH or hs-CRP and functional disability were both less than 20%. Sensitivity analyses in different subgroups showed comparable results.

Conclusion

The relationship between LDH and functional disability at 90 days among AIS patients is partially mediated by stroke recurrence, accounting for less than 20%. LDH deserves equal attention as hs-CRP in predicting recurrence and functional outcome. In addition to traditional secondary prevention measures, innovative anti-inflammatory strategies warrant further investigation.

Going beyond the comparison: toward experimental instructional design research with impact

To design effective instruction, educators need to know what design strategies are generally effective and why these strategies work, based on the mechanisms through which they operate. Experimental comparison studies, which compare one instructional design against another, can generate much needed evidence in support of effective design strategies. However, experimental comparison studies are often not equipped to generate evidence regarding the mechanisms through which strategies operate. Therefore, simply conducting experimental comparison studies may not provide educators with all the information they need to design more effective instruction. To generate evidence for the what and the why of design strategies, we advocate for researchers to conduct experimental comparison studies that include mediation or moderation analyses, which can illuminate the mechanisms through which design strategies operate. The purpose of this article is to provide a conceptual overview of mediation and moderation analyses for researchers who conduct experimental comparison studies in instructional design. While these statistical techniques add complexity to study design and analysis, they hold great promise for providing educators with more powerful information upon which to base their instructional design decisions. Using two real-world examples from our own work, we describe the structure of mediation and moderation analyses, emphasizing the need to control for confounding even in the context of experimental studies. We also discuss the importance of using learning theories to help identify mediating or moderating variables to test.

Estimands in clinical trials of complex disease processes

Clinical trials with random assignment of treatment provide evidence about causal effects of an experimental treatment compared to standard care. However, when disease processes involve multiple types of possibly semi-competing events, specification of target estimands and causal inferences can be challenging. Intercurrent events such as study withdrawal, the introduction of rescue medication, and death further complicate matters. There has been much discussion about these issues in recent years, but guidance remains ambiguous. Some recommended approaches are formulated in terms of hypothetical settings that have little bearing in the real world. We discuss issues in formulating estimands, beginning with intercurrent events in the context of a linear model and then move on to more complex disease history processes amenable to multistate modeling. We elucidate the meaning of estimands implicit in some recommended approaches for dealing with intercurrent events and highlight the disconnect between estimands formulated in terms of potential outcomes and the real world.

Technology in farming: Unleashing farmers' behavioral intention for the adoption of agriculture 5.0

The agriculture sector has undergone a remarkable revolution known as Agriculture 5.0 (Ag 5.0), emphasizing digital technology to boost efficiency and profitability of farm business. However, little is known about farmers' behavioral intension to adopt Ag 5.0. In this study we examine factors influencing farmer's behavioral intension for Agriculture 5.0, identify implementation obstacles and provide managerial solutions to promote Ag 5.0 in Madhesh Province, Nepal, using the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) and Structural Equation Model (SEM). We tested total of 20 different hypotheses. Primary data were collected from 271 farmers across 9 municipalities in Saptari District, Nepal. The study reveals that technology anxiety [(β = 0.101, p<0.01); (β = 0.188, p<0.01)], self-efficacy [(β = 0.312, p<0.01, (β = 0.170, p<0.05)] and social influence [(β = 0.411, p<0.01), (β = 0.170, p<0.05)] significantly impact the perceived usefulness as well as perceived ease of use, respectively. Individual innovativeness also affects the perceived usefulness (β = 0.004, p<0.05) and perceived ease of use (β = 0.281, p<0.01). Moreover, the study found that attitude towards using Ag 5.0 is significantly influenced by perceived usefulness (β = 0.083, p<0.10) and ease of use (β = 0.189, p<0.01), which, in turn, affects the intention to use Ag 5.0 (β = 0.858, p<0.01). Farmers perceive training programs, government assistance, and subsidies as helpful in overcoming challenges associated with adopting Ag 5.0. This study provides valuable insights for policymakers, development partners, and farmers' organizations, enabling them to understand the factors influencing the readiness for Ag 5.0 adoption in Nepal.

Monocyte Chemoattractant Protein-1, Inflammatory Biomarkers, and Prognosis of Patients With Ischemic Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack: Fndings From a Nationwide Registry Study

BACKGROUND

Recent Mendelian randomization and meta-analysis highlight the relevance of MCP-1 (monocyte chemoattractant protein-1) in stroke. We aimed to investigate the associations between MCP-1 and clinical outcomes in patients with ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack and test whether inflammation mediates or jointly contributes to the relationships.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A total of 10 700 patients from the Third China National Stroke Registry study were included. Multivariable Cox regression was used for recurrent stroke and all-cause death, and logistic regression was used for poor functional outcome. Mediation analyses were performed to clarify whether inflammation mediates the associations. After adjusting for potential confounders, low MCP-1 level (<337.6 pg/mL) was associated with a reduced risk of all-cause death (hazard ratio [HR], 0.65 [95% CI, 0.51-0.82]) and poor functional outcome (odds ratio, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.70-0.94]) but was not associated with recurrent stroke (HR, 1.10 [95% CI, 0.95-1.27]), compared with high MCP-1 level (≥337.6 pg/mL). The association between MCP-1 and all-cause death was partially mediated by highly sensitive C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, and YKL-40 (Chitinase-3-like protein 1; mediated proportion: 7.4%, 10.5%, and 7.4%, respectively). The corresponding mediated proportion for poor functional outcome was 9.9%, 17.1%, and 7.1%, respectively. Patients with combined high levels of MCP-1 and inflammatory biomarkers had the highest risks of all-cause death and poor functional outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

Low plasma MCP-1 level was associated with decreased risks of all-cause mortality and poor functional outcome after ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack. Inflammation partially mediated and jointly contributed to the associations.

Higher intraindividual variability of body mass index is associated with elevated risk of COVID-19 related hospitalization and post-COVID conditions

BACKGROUND

Cardiometabolic diseases are risk factors for COVID-19 severity. The extent that cardiometabolic health represents a modifiable factor to mitigate the short- and long-term consequences from SARS-CoV-2 remains unclear. Our objective was to evaluate the associations between intraindividual variability of cardiometabolic health indicators and COVID-19 related hospitalizations and post-COVID conditions (PCC) among a relatively healthy population.

METHODS

This retrospective, multi-site cohort study was a post-hoc analysis among individuals with cardiometabolic health data collected during routine blood donation visits in 24 US states (2009-2018) and who responded to COVID-19 questionnaires (2021-2023). Intraindividual variability of blood pressure (systolic, diastolic), total circulating cholesterol, and body mass index (BMI) were defined as the coefficient of variation (CV) across all available donation timepoints (ranging from 3 to 74); participants were categorized into CV quartiles. Associations were evaluated by multivariable binomial regressions.

RESULTS

Overall, 3344 participants provided 42,090 donations (median 9 [IQR 5, 17]). The median age was 48 years (38, 56) at the first study donation. 1.2% (N = 40) were hospitalized due to COVID-19 and 15.5% (N = 519) had PCC. Higher BMI variability was associated with greater risk of COVID-19 hospitalization (4th quartile aRR 4.15 [95% CI 1.31, 13.11], p = 0.02; 3rd quartile aRR 3.41 [95% CI 1.09, 10.69], p = 0.04). Participants with higher variability of BMI had greater risk of PCC (4th quartile aRR 1.29 [95% CI 1.02, 1.64]; p = 0.04). Intraindividual variability of blood pressure (systolic, diastolic) and total circulating cholesterol were not associated with COVID-19 hospitalization or PCC risk (all p > 0.05). From causal mediation analysis, the association between the highest quartiles of BMI variability and PCC was not mediated by hospitalization (p > 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher intraindividual variability of BMI was associated with COVID-19 hospitalization and PCC risk. Our findings underscore the need for further elucidating mechanisms that explain these associations and importance for consistent maintenance of body weight.

Benchmark Dose of Melamine Exposure for a Renal Injury Marker Mediated by Oxidative Stress: Examples in Patients with Urolithiasis and Occupational Workers

Establishing a safe exposure level from epidemiological studies while providing direct hazard characterization in humans often faces uncertainty in causality, especially cross-sectional data. With advances in molecular epidemiology, it is reasonable to integrate identified intermediate biomarkers into health risk assessment. In this study, by considering the mediation of the oxidative stress marker malondialdehyde (MDA), we explored the exposure threshold of melamine on the early renal injury marker N-acetyl-β-D glucosaminidase (NAG). The benchmark dose (BMD) was derived from model averaging of the composite direct effect of melamine exposure and the indirect effect through the mediation of MDA on NAG levels. As illustrative examples, we analyzed 309 adult patients with calcium urolithiasis and 80 occupational workers for the corresponding exposure thresholds. The derived threshold was subpopulation-dependent, with the one-sided lower bound BMDL10 for the patients with urolithiasis with (without) the mediator MDA for the patients with kidney stones and the occupational workers being 0.88 (0.96) μg/kg_bw/day and 22.82 (18.09) μg/kg_bw/day, respectively. The derived threshold levels, considering the oxidative stress marker MDA, were consistent with those without adjusting for the mediation effect. However, the study outcomes were further supported by the suggested mechanism pathway. The threshold for the patients with urolithiasis was up to two orders lower than the current tolerable daily intake level of 200 μg/kg_bw/day recommended by the WHO (EFSA).

Genetic associations between gut microbiota and type 2 diabetes mediated by plasma metabolites: a Mendelian randomization study

Background

Numerous research studies have indicated a possible association between type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and gut microbiota. To explore specific metabolic pathways connecting gut microbiota and T2DM, we employed Mendelian randomization (MR) and linkage disequilibrium score regression (LDSC) techniques.

Methods

This research utilized data from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) that are publicly accessible. We evaluated the genetic correlation between gut microbiota and T2DM using LDSC. Causality was primarily determined through the inverse variance weighted (IVW) method. To verify the robustness of our results, we conducted sensitivity analyses using several approaches, including the weighted median, MR-Egger, and MR-PRESSO. We integrated summary effect estimates from LDSC, along with forward and reverse MR, into a meta-analysis for T2DM using various data sources. Additionally, mediation analysis was performed to explore the impact of plasma metabolites on the relationship between gut microbiota and T2DM.

Results

Our study indicated a significant genetic correlation between genus RuminococcaceaeUCG005 (Rg = -0.26, Rg_P = 2.07×10-4) and T2DM. Moreover, the forward MR analysis identified genus RuminococcaceaeUCG010 (OR = 0.857, 95% CI 0.795, 0.924; P = 6.33×10-5) and order Clostridiales (OR = 0.936, 95% CI 0.878, 0.997; P = 0.039) as being significantly associated with a decreased risk of T2DM. The analysis also highlighted several plasma metabolites as significant mediators in these relationships, with metabolites like octadecadienedioate (C18:2-DC) and branched chain 14:0 dicarboxylic acid being notably involved.

Conclusion

The findings demonstrate a significant impact of gut microbiota on T2DM via plasma metabolites, suggesting potential metabolic pathways for therapeutic targeting. This study enhances our understanding of the microbiota's role in T2DM pathogenesis and supports the development of microbiota-based interventions.

The association of depression and patient and resuscitation characteristics with survival after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: a cohort study

AIMS

Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is a leading cause of death worldwide, with cardiovascular disease (CVD) being a key risk factor. This study aims to investigate disparities in patient/OHCA characteristics and survival after OHCA among patients with vs. without depression.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This is a retrospective cohort study using data from the AmsteRdam REsuscitation Studies (ARREST) registry from 2008 to 2018. History of comorbidities, including depression, was obtained from the patient's general practitioner. Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest survival was defined as survival at 30 days post-OHCA or hospital discharge. Logistic regression models were used to obtain crude and adjusted odds ratios (ORs) for the association between depression and OHCA survival and possible effect modification by age, sex, and comorbidities. The potential mediating effects of initial heart rhythm and provision of bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation were explored. Among 5594 OHCA cases, 582 individuals had pre-existing depression. Patients with depression had less favourable patient and OHCA characteristics and lower odds of survival after adjustment for age, sex, and comorbidities [OR 0.65, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.51-0.82], with similar findings by sex and age groups. The association remained significant among the Utstein comparator group (OR 0.63, 95% CI 0.45-0.89) and patients with return of spontaneous circulation (OR 0.60, 95% CI 0.42-0.85). Initial rhythm and bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation partially mediated the observed association (by 27 and 7%, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients with depression presented more frequently with unfavourable patient and OHCA characteristics and had reduced chances of survival. Further investigation into potential pathways is warranted.

On the ability of the SF-6D to capture the consequences of chronic illnesses on subjective well-being: Evidence from France

Using cross-sectional data from a representative sample of the French population (the 2008 Disability Health survey), this paper examines whether the SF-6D, a widely used preference-based measure of health-related quality of life in economic evaluations, fully captures the variation in subjective well-being (SWB) due to chronic illnesses. We conduct a mediation analysis to disentangle the direct and indirect, through the SF-6D, effects of various chronic conditions on SWB (happiness). Our results show that the SF-6D reflects changes in happiness due to most illnesses except mental illness. Changes in SWB mediated by the SF-6D account for 74% of the total effect. The variation unexplained by the SF-6D is significant and increases substantially in the presence of multimorbidity when a chronic illness is combined with anxiety or depression. Overall, our results suggest that the SF-6D incompletely captures the subjective experience of chronically ill patients, especially those with comorbid conditions.

Sex hormone-binding globulin may explain sex differences for glucose homeostasis and incidence of type 2 diabetes: the KORA study

Research has indicated that sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) is associated with glucose homeostasis and may play a role in the etiology of type 2 diabetes (T2D). While it is unclear whether SHBG may mediate sex differences in glucose control and subsequently, incidence of T2D. We used observational data from the German population-based KORA F4 study (n = 1937, mean age: 54 years, 41% women) and its follow-up examination KORA FF4 (median follow-up 6.5 years, n = 1387). T2D was initially assessed by self-report and validated by contacting the physicians and/ or reviewing the medical charts. Mediation analyses were performed to assess the role of SHBG in mediating the association between sex (women vs. men) and glucose- and insulin-related traits (cross-sectional analysis) and incidence of T2D (longitudinal analysis). After adjustment for confounders, (model 1: adjusted for age; model 2: model 1 + smoking + alcohol consumption + physical activity), women had lower fasting glucose levels compared to men (β = -4.94 (mg/dl), 95% CI: -5.77, -4.11). SHBG levels were significantly higher in women than in men (β = 0.47 (nmol/l), 95% CI:0.42, 0.51). Serum SHBG may mediate the association between sex and fasting glucose levels with a proportion mediated (PM) of 30% (CI: 22-41%). Also, a potential mediatory role of SHBG was observed for sex differences in incidence of T2D (PM = 95% and 63% in models 1 and 2, respectively). Our novel findings suggest that SHBG may partially explain sex-differences in glucose control and T2D incidence.

Self-efficacy with Pelvic floor muscle training mediates the effect of an App-based intervention on improving postpartum urinary incontinence severity among pregnant women: A causal mediation analysis from a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

A pragmatic randomised controlled trial has confirmed the effectiveness of Urinary Incontinence for Women (UIW) app-based intervention in improving postpartum urinary incontinence (UI) severity among pregnant women. However, the causal mechanisms underlying this intervention effect remain unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the mediating role of self-efficacy with pelvic floor muscle training (PFMT) on the effect of the UIW app-based intervention in improving postpartum UI severity.

METHODS

This was a secondary causal mediation analysis of a single-center, 2-arm, unblinded pragmatic randomised controlled trial. Singleton pregnant women without UI before pregnancy aged ≥18 years and between 24 and 28 weeks of gestation were recruited from a tertiary public hospital in China and randomised to receive the UIW app intervention plus oral PFMT instructions (n = 63) or oral PFMT instructions alone (n = 63). The primary outcome was postpartum changes in UI severity at 6 weeks. Changes in self-efficacy with PFMT 2 months after randomisation were a hypothesised mediator. Causal mediation analysis was used to estimate the average causal mediation effect (ACME), average direct effect (ADE), average total effect (ATE), and proportion mediated. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to examine the robustness of the ACME in relation to potential unmeasured confounding.

RESULTS

Data from 103 participants were analyzed. The ATE of UIW app-based intervention on postpartum UI severity was 2.91 points (95 % confidence intervals [CI] 1.69 to 4.12), with ADE of 1.97 points (95 % CI 0.63 to 3.41) and the ACME 0.94 points (95 % CI 0.27 to 1.72). The proportion of ATE mediated by self-efficacy with PFMT was 0.32 (95 % CI 0.08 to 0.67). Sensitivity analysis revealed the robust ACME with respect to the potential effects of unmeasured confounding.

CONCLUSION

An increase in self-efficacy with PFMT partially mediated the effect of the UIW app intervention on improvements in postpartum UI severity.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The original trial was prospectively registered in the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry under the reference number ChiCTR1800016171 on 16/05/2018. Further details can be accessed at: http://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=27455.

Integrating Multi-Omics with environmental data for precision health: A novel analytic framework and case study on prenatal mercury induced childhood fatty liver disease

BACKGROUND

Precision Health aims to revolutionize disease prevention by leveraging information across multiple omic datasets (multi-omics). However, existing methods generally do not consider personalized environmental risk factors (e.g., environmental pollutants).

OBJECTIVE

To develop and apply a precision health framework which combines multiomic integration (including early, intermediate, and late integration, representing sequential stages at which omics layers are combined for modeling) with mediation approaches (including high-dimensional mediation to identify biomarkers, mediation with latent factors to identify pathways, and integrated/quasi-mediation to identify high-risk subpopulations) to identify novel biomarkers of prenatal mercury induced metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD), elucidate molecular pathways linking prenatal mercury with MAFLD in children, and identify high-risk children based on integrated exposure and multiomics data.

METHODS

This prospective cohort study used data from 420 mother-child pairs from the Human Early Life Exposome (HELIX) project. Mercury concentrations were determined in maternal or cord blood from pregnancy. Cytokeratin 18 (CK-18; a MAFLD biomarker) and five omics layers (DNA Methylation, gene transcription, microRNA, proteins, and metabolites) were measured in blood in childhood (age 6-10 years).

RESULTS

Each standard deviation increase in prenatal mercury was associated with a 0.11 [95% confidence interval: 0.02-0.21] standard deviation increase in CK-18. High dimensional mediation analysis identified 10 biomarkers linking prenatal mercury and CK-18, including six CpG sites and four transcripts. Mediation with latent factors identified molecular pathways linking mercury and MAFLD, including altered cytokine signaling and hepatic stellate cell activation. Integrated/quasi-mediation identified high risk subgroups of children based on unique combinations of exposure levels, omics profiles (driven by epigenetic markers), and MAFLD.

CONCLUSIONS

Prenatal mercury exposure is associated with elevated liver enzymes in childhood, likely through alterations in DNA methylation and gene expression. Our analytic framework can be applied across many different fields and serve as a resource to help guide future precision health investigations.

DNA Methylation Mediates the Association Between Cardiometabolic Risk Factors and Cognition: Findings From the Health and Retirement Study

The association between cardiometabolic risk factors and cognitive function has been well documented, but the underlying mechanisms are not fully understood. This longitudinal study aimed to investigate the potential mediating role of DNA methylation in this association. We conducted the analyses in 3 708 participants (mean [standard deviation {SD}] age: 67.3 [9.5], women: 57.9%) from the Health and Retirement Study who were assessed in the 2014-2020 waves, had Infinium Methylation EPIC BeadChip methylation assays from the 2016 Venous Blood Study, and had cognitive assessment between 2016 and 2020. Causal mediation analyses were used to test the mediation role of DNA methylation in the associations between cardiometabolic risk factors and cognition, adjusting for demographic, socioeconomic, and lifestyle factors. Hypertension (-0.061 in composite cognitive z-score; 95% confidence interval [CI: -0.119, -0.004]) and diabetes (-0.134; 95% CI: [-0.198, -0.071]) were significantly associated with worse cognitive function while abnormal body weight and hypercholesterolemia were not. An increased number of cardiometabolic risk factors was associated with worse cognitive function (p = .002). DNA methylation significantly mediated the association of hypertension (mediated effect on composite cognitive z-score: -0.023; 95% CI: -0.033, -0.014), diabetes (-0.022; 95% CI: -0.032, -0.014), and obesity (-0.021; 95% CI: -0.033, -0.011) with cognitive function, whereas the mediation effect was not observed for having hypercholesterolemia. The estimated proportions mediated were 37.4% for hypertension and 16.7% for diabetes. DNA methylation may be an important mediator linking cardiometabolic risk factors to worse cognition and might even provide a potential target for dementia prevention.