Group-based trajectory modeling in clinical research

Implementing mobile eye tracking in psychological research: A practical guide

Eye tracking provides direct, temporally and spatially sensitive measures of eye gaze. It can capture visual attention patterns from infancy through adulthood. However, commonly used screen-based eye tracking (SET) paradigms are limited in their depiction of how individuals process information as they interact with the environment in "real life". Mobile eye tracking (MET) records participant-perspective gaze in the context of active behavior. Recent technological developments in MET hardware enable researchers to capture egocentric vision as early as infancy and across the lifespan. However, challenges remain in MET data collection, processing, and analysis. The present paper aims to provide an introduction and practical guide to starting researchers in the field to facilitate the use of MET in psychological research with a wide range of age groups. First, we provide a general introduction to MET. Next, we briefly review MET studies in adults and children that provide new insights into attention and its roles in cognitive and socioemotional functioning. We then discuss technical issues relating to MET data collection and provide guidelines for data quality inspection, gaze annotations, data visualization, and statistical analyses. Lastly, we conclude by discussing the future directions of MET implementation. Open-source programs for MET data quality inspection, data visualization, and analysis are shared publicly.

Impact of polygenic risk score for triglyceride trajectory and diabetic complications in subjects with type 2 diabetes based on large electronic medical record data from Taiwan: a case control study

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of diabetic dyslipidemia has gradually increased worldwide and individuals with hypertriglyceridemia often have a high polygenic burden of triglyceride (TG)-increasing variants. However, the contribution of genetic variants to dyslipidemia in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) remains limited. Therefore, in this study, we aimed to investigate the genetic characteristics of longitudinal changes in TG levels among patients with T2D and summarize the genetic effects of polygenic risk score (PRS) on TG trajectory and risk of diabetic complications.

METHODS

We conducted a case-control study. A total of 11,312 patients with T2D with longitudinal TG and genetic data were identified from a large hospital database in Taiwan. We then performed a genome-wide association study and calculated the relative PRS.

RESULTS

In total, 21 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) related to TG trajectory were identified and yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) of 0.712 for high TG trajectory risk among Taiwanese patients with T2D. A cumulative genetic effect was observed for high TG trajectory, even when considering the adherence of a lipid-lowering agent in stratified analysis. An increased PRS increases high TG trajectory risk in a logistic regression model (odds ratio = 1.55; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.31-1.83 in the validation cohort). The TG-specific PRS was associated with the risk of diabetic microvascular complications, including diabetic retinopathy and nephropathy (with hazard ratios of 1.11 [95% CI = 1.01-1.21, P = 0.027] and 1.05 [95% CI = 1.01-1.1, P = 0.018], respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

This study may contribute to the identification of patients with T2D who are at risk of abnormal TG levels and diabetic microvascular complications using polygenic information.

Origins and developmental paths of medical conditions from mid-childhood to mid-adolescence in Australia: Early-life adverse conditions and their lasting effects

This study investigates various common medical conditions affecting Australian children aged 4-14 years and the impact of prenatal and early-life conditions on these health conditions using a large national data set (n = 4122) with 15 years of follow-up. Consistent with the developmental origins of health and diseases hypothesis and the life-course models of health, the in-utero environment and parental financial hardship during pregnancy and shortly after birth play a significant role and have a lasting impact on the medical conditions of children. These significant effects are not reduced by controlling for child, family, and neighbourhood characteristics. The impact of improvements in family income when the child is aged 4-14 years does not compensate for the impact of health disadvantages in the prenatal and postnatal period.

Risk and protective factors for cognitive decline in Brazilian lower educated older adults: A 15-year follow-up study using group-based trajectory modelling

BACKGROUND

Patterns of cognitive change and modifiable factors for cognitive decline versus stable cognitive trajectories have rarely been described in lower-educated older adults.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to identify long-term trajectories of cognitive functioning and possible factors associated with cognitive decline.

DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS

We used data from 1,042 adults aged ≥ 60 participating in the Health, Welfare and Aging Study (SABE), São Paulo, Brazil, without cognitive impairment at baseline. Data were collected across four waves (2000-2015). Group-based trajectory modelling was used to identify cognitive trajectories. Associations with socioeconomic variables, childhood background, lifestyle, and cardiovascular risk factors were explored using weighted multinomial logistic regressions.

MEASUREMENTS

The abbreviated Mini-Mental State Examination was used to measure cognition.

RESULTS

Three cognitive trajectories were identified: stable (n= 754, 68.6%), mild-decline (n= 183, 20.8%), and strong-decline (n= 105, 10.7%). At baseline, respondents in the strong-decline group were more likely to be older than those with stable and mild-decline trajectories. Furthermore, participants in both the mild and strong-decline groups were more likely to have no schooling, be divorced/separated, receive less than 4 monthly wages, and be underweight (BMI < 18.5) compared to the stable group. Finally, the mild-decline group was more likely to have lived in rural areas during childhood than participants located in a stable trajectory.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that interventions to reduce cognitive decline for low-educated older adults might include strategies addressing inequalities and improving modifiable risk factor burden.

Difference in trajectories according to early amyloid accumulation in cognitively unimpaired elderly

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Amyloid β (Aβ), a major biomarker of Alzheimer's disease, leads to tau accumulation, neurodegeneration and cognitive decline. Modelling the trajectory of Aβ accumulation in cognitively unimpaired (CU) individuals is crucial, as treatments targeting Aβ are anticipated. The evolution of Aβ levels was investigated to determine whether it could lead to classification into different groups by studying longitudinal Aβ changes in older CU individuals, and differences between the groups were compared.

METHODS

A total of 297 CU participants were included from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative database, and these participants underwent apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotyping, neuropsychological testing, brain magnetic resonance imaging, and an average of 3.03 follow-up 18F-florbetapir positron emission tomography scans. Distinct Aβ trajectory patterns were classified using latent class growth analysis, and longitudinal cognitive performances across these patterns were assessed with a linear mixed effects model.

RESULTS

The optimal model consisted of three classes, with a high entropy value of 0.947. The classes were designated as follows: class 1, non-accumulation group (n  = 197); class 2, late accumulation group (n  = 70); and class 3, early accumulation group (n  = 30). The late accumulation and early accumulation groups had more APOE ε4 carriers than the non-accumulation group. The longitudinal analysis of cognitive performance revealed that the early accumulation group showed the steepest decline (modified Preclinical Alzheimer's Cognitive Composite with digit symbol substitution [mPACCdigit], p < 0.001; modified Preclinical Alzheimer's Cognitive Composite with trails B [mPACCtrailsB], p < 0.001) and the late accumulation group showed a steeper decline (mPACCdigit, p = 0.014; mPACCtrailsB, p = 0.007) compared to the non-accumulation group.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study showed the heterogeneity of Aβ accumulation trajectories in CU older individuals. The prognoses for cognitive decline differ according to the Aβ trajectory patterns.

Peer Bullying Victimization Trajectories for Sexually and Gender Diverse Youth from Early Childhood to Late Adolescence

Sexually and gender diverse (SGD) youth experience more peer bullying victimization than heterosexual, cisgender youth during adolescence, yet the emergence and persistence of these disparities remain underexplored. Also, it is unclear which factors are associated with these disparities across development, and how these disparities are linked to late adolescent health discrepancies. This study utilized the sample from the Millennium Cohort Study in Britain (N = 10,080; 51.3% assigned female at birth; Mage = 2.28, SDage = 0.46 at Wave 2), in which 23.74% of youth reported non-heterosexual attraction, 21.59% reported non-heterosexual identity, and 1.08% reported gender identity not in line with the sex assigned at birth. Using latent class growth modeling, four peer bullying victimization trajectories were identified, with early peak (7.2%), late childhood peak (6.3%), adolescence onset (12.8%), and low (73.6%) rates of victimization. SGD youth, compared to heterosexual and cisgender youth, were found to have increased odds of being in the victimization-involved classes, especially the adolescence onset class. The study further revealed that SGD youth reported more mental health and relational difficulties in childhood, which were linked to their heightened risk of longer-lasting victimization. Further, long-term victimization was found to partially account for the disparities in health and well-being for SGD youth in late adolescence. In conclusion, SGD youth were more likely to experience longer-lasting bullying victimization during childhood and adolescence, its related mental and relational vulnerabilities were already established in childhood, and such victimization disparities were further linked to their detrimental health and well-being in late adolescence. The design, hypotheses, and target analyses of the current study were preregistered on 21st April 2023 at https://osf.io/f2zxy .

Novel, Group-Based Trajectories of Labor Progress in Nulliparous Women With Low-Risk Pregnancies

OBJECTIVE

To characterize labor progress among nulliparous women by applying group-based trajectory analysis and examining predictors of group membership.

DESIGN

Retrospective observational.

SETTING

An existing biobank and database from a birth hospital in Western Pennsylvania.

PARTICIPANTS

Nulliparous women with low-risk pregnancies at term gestation with singleton fetuses in vertex presentation (N = 401).

METHODS

We characterized labor progress by applying group-based trajectory analysis. We conducted a multinomial logistic regression analysis to examine the relationships among labor trajectory groups and various demographic and clinical variables.

RESULTS

We identified three trajectories of labor in the group-based trajectory analyses: precipitously progressing (n = 76, 20.1%), average (n = 245, 59.1%), and slow progress (n = 80, 20.7%). Only gestational age at birth significantly predicted trajectory group membership, and an increased gestational age was associated with greater odds of belonging to the slower progress group (OR = 1.43, 95% CI [1.06, 1.92]).

CONCLUSION

We identified multiple trajectories of labor progress in a sample of nulliparous women with low-risk pregnancies at term gestation. Gestational age may help predict the trajectory of labor.

Fall Trajectories in Older Men: Trajectories of Change by Age and Predictors for Future Fall Risk

BACKGROUND

Very little is known about specific trajectories or patterns of falls over time. Using the well-characterized cohort of the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Study (MrOS), we classified individuals by fall trajectories across age and identified predictors of group assignment based on characteristics at baseline.

METHODS

Using an analysis sample of 5 976 MrOS participants and 15 years of follow-up data on incident falls, we used group-based trajectory models (PROC TRAJ in SAS) to identify trajectories of change. We assessed the association of baseline characteristics with group assignment using 1-way analysis of variance and chi-square tests. Multivariable logistic regression was used to analyze the outcome of the high-risk fall trajectory groups compared to the low-risk groups.

RESULTS

Changes in rates of falls were relatively constant or increasing with 5 distinct groups identified. Mean posterior probabilities for all 5 trajectories were similar and consistently above 0.8 indicating a reasonable model fit. Among the 5 fall trajectory groups, 2 were deemed high risk, those with steeply increasing fall risk and persistently high fall risk. Factors associated with fall risk included body mass index, use of central nervous agents, prior history of diabetes and Parkinson's disease, back pain, grip strength, and physical and mental health scores.

CONCLUSIONS

Two distinct groups of high fall risk individuals were identified among 5 trajectory groups, those with steeply increasing fall risk and persistently high fall risk. Statistically significant characteristics for group assignment suggest that future fall risk of older men may be predictable at baseline.

The long shadow of early-change patterns: a 3-year follow-up after the use of a web-based intervention for mild to moderate depressive symptoms

Web-based interventions can be effective in treating depressive symptoms. Patients with risk not responding to treatment have been identified by early change patterns. This study aims to examine whether early changes are superior to baseline parameters in predicting long-term outcome. In a randomized clinical trial with 409 individuals experiencing mild to moderate depressive symptoms using the web-based intervention deprexis, three latent classes were identified (early response after registration, early response after screening and early deterioration) based on early change in the first four weeks of the intervention. Baseline variables and these classes were included in a Stepwise Cox Proportional Hazard Multiple Regression to identify predictors associated with the onset of remission over 36-months. Early change class was a significant predictor of remission over 36 months. Compared to early deterioration after screening, both early response after registration and after screening were associated with a higher likelihood of remission. In sensitivity and secondary analyses, only change class consistently emerged as a predictor of long-term outcome. Early improvement in depression symptoms predicted long-term outcome and those showing early improvement had a higher likelihood of long-term remission. These findings suggest that early changes might be a robust predictor for long-term outcome beyond baseline parameters.

Severity of tongue base collapse in various body positions in patients with obstructive sleep apnea: A trajectory analysis

BACKGROUND

Drug-induced sleep endoscopy (DISE) is used for evaluating upper airway anatomy and determining airway obstruction patterns. It is typically performed with the patient in the supine position. Airway collapse severity is influenced by body position and level of consciousness; the resultant dynamic changes may vary across patients. In this study, we evaluated the severity of upper airway collapse through awake endoscopy and DISE and identified factors affecting the pattern of airway collapse severity.

METHODS

This study included 66 patients with obstructive sleep apnea. The patients underwent type 1 polysomnography, tongue strength assessment, awake endoscopy in the sitting and supine positions, and DISE. Group-based trajectory modeling was performed to identify patients with different collapse severity patterns in different body positions and at different levels of consciousness.

RESULTS

Patient with similar severity trajectory were assigned to the same group. Two different severity trajectories (group 1 and group 2) were identified at the tongue base level. Tongue depression strength varied significantly between groups 1 and 2 (47.00 vs. 35.00 kPa; P = .047). During awake endoscopy, collapse severity was significantly higher in group 2 than in group 1. Group 1 had lower rapid eye movement/nonrapid eye movement apnea-hypopnea index ratios and higher tongue depression strength than did group 2.

CONCLUSION

In patients with obstructive sleep apnea, tongue strength may vary depending on body position. Our results should be interpreted with caution because of the limited sample size. Future studies should investigate the effect of oropharyngeal rehabilitation on tongue strength and collapse severity.

Joint Trajectories of Depression and Rumination: Experiential Predictors and Risk of Nonsuicidal Self-Injury

OBJECTIVE

Nonsuicidal self-injury (NSSI) is common in adolescence. Rumination is a key risk factor and often co-occurs with depressive symptoms. This is the first study to examine the joint longitudinal trajectories of rumination and depressive symptoms as predictors of NSSI, and the adverse experiences associated with these trajectories.

METHOD

A community sample of 1,835 adolescents (55.9% male participants, 12.3 ± 0.5 years of age) completed questionnaires to assess adverse childhood experiences, rumination, depressive symptoms, and NSSI. Assessments were made 4 times over 18 months.

RESULTS

A parallel process growth mixture model showed that youth with high trajectories of rumination but low trajectories of depression had moderately increased odds of NSSI (2.43-fold, 95% CI 1.53-3.91) compared with adolescents with low trajectories of both rumination and depression. Odds ratios (ORs) in adolescents with low trajectories of rumination but increasing or high trajectories of depression were similarly elevated, suggesting that high trajectories of rumination or depression were risk factors in isolation. However, odds were 10.06-fold greater (95% CI 5.68-18.02) when high trajectories of rumination occurred in tandem with high trajectories of depression. Multinomial logistic regression showed that male sex (OR 10.54, 95% CI 5.66-19.63), peer victimization (OR 2.25, 95% CI 1.72-2.96), and parental alienation (OR 1.94, 95% CI 1.46-2.57) were key determinants of membership in the highest risk group.

CONCLUSION

Risk for NSSI is markedly increased in adolescents with high longitudinal trajectories of depression and rumination. Reducing exposure to peer victimization, cyber victimization, emotional abuse, parental alienation, and interparental conflict may reduce risk.

PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY

The authors of this study conducted a longitudinal analysis of 1,835 adolescents in the Peoples Republic of China to evaluate rumination and depressive symptoms as predictors of nonsuicidal self-injury. The authors found that high trajectories of either rumination or depression alone was associated with an elevated risk of nonsuicidal self-injury. The combination of high trajectories of both rumination and depression resulted in the highest risk. Male sex, peer victimization, cyber victimization, and parental alienation were more common in the highest trajectory risk groups.

Developmental trajectories of professional preparedness among senior nursing students during clinical placement: A longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

Newly graduated nurses' lack of professional competence is associated with inadequate preparation during their clinical placement as nursing students. Clinical placement is a critical stage in the development of nursing students' professional preparedness. However, research on the trajectory of nursing students' professional preparedness during clinical placement has not yielded findings with the same specificity.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study is to estimate differences in professional preparedness levels at different clinical placement stages, to identify distinct patterns of professional preparedness trajectories during clinical placement, and to evaluate predictors of these trajectory group memberships.

DESIGN

A quantitative longitudinal study.

SETTINGS

Participants were recruited on a voluntary basis using convenience sampling at a tertiary hospital in Nanning, China.

PARTICIPANTS

224 senior nursing students were initially invited to participate in the study. A total of 178 nursing students successfully completed the follow-up assessments at baseline, as well as at 1 month, 4 months, and 8 months into their clinical placement.

METHODS

Participants completed four online surveys, during which their professional preparedness level was measured using the Perceived Professional Preparedness questionnaire for senior nursing students. Professional preparedness scores at different time points were compared using one-way repeated measures ANOVA and latent growth model. Group-based trajectory model was applied to identify professional preparedness trajectories. Multiple logistic regression was adopted to determine the predictors of trajectory group memberships.

RESULTS

The entire sample of Senior nursing students experienced a significant increase in professional preparedness during clinical placement. The best-fitting group-based trajectory model delineated three distinct trajectories: low-slowly increase trajectory (27.53 % of sample), moderate-rapidly increase trajectory (47.19 % of sample) and a high-stably increase trajectory (25.28 % of sample). Male, good and excellent academic performance, and very high degree of professional interest are the predictors of the moderate-rapidly increase trajectory. While male, good and excellent academic performance, high and very high degree of professional interest and participating in medical-related part-time employment are the predictors of the high-stable increase trajectory.

CONCLUSIONS

Senior nursing students exhibit different levels of professional preparedness throughout their clinical placement. Simultaneously, three different trajectories were identified among the sample of nursing students. Therefore, in future research, greater attention should be directed towards the professional preparedness levels of nursing students with different trajectories, and early identification and targeted interventions should be prioritized.

Trajectory Patterns of Weight and Length in Children: From Birth Until 2-Years of Age

OBJECTIVE

The aim was to identify trajectory patterns of weight and length in children from birth until two years of life and establish associations with maternal and child characteristics.

METHODS

A mixed-cohort study was conducted in public health services in Colombo-PR, Brazil, between 2018 and 2022. Pregnancy information was gathered through anthropometric data collection and questionnaires. Birth data were extracted from birth record forms, while weight and length data in the first two years of life were obtained from physical and electronic health service records. Weight and length trajectory patterns were identified using a group-based trajectory model. The definition of the number of trajectory patterns to be selected considered the model fit to the type of variable, its practical utility, as well as the probabilities of group membership.

RESULTS

Two trajectory patterns of weight and length were identified among the children. The majority exhibited a pattern of weight (67.8%, n = 382) and length (90.9%, n = 472) considered high and stable, with a tendency to decelerate from one and a half years of age. The probability of belonging to the lower weight gain group was associated with female sex (41.5%, p < 0.001), smoking during pregnancy (48.7%, p = 0.008), prematurity (65.0%, p = 0.001), cesarean delivery (36.4%, p = 0.009), small for gestational age (69.0%, p < 0.001), and twinning (69.2%, p = 0.002). Similarly, the probability of belonging to the lower length gain group was associated with female sex (11.7%, p < 0.001), smoking during pregnancy (20.6%, p = 0.003), cesarean delivery (10.1%, p = 0.048), born small for gestational age (46.4%, p < 0.001), and twinning (46.1%, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Conditions during pregnancy and childbirth can impact growth patterns in the first two years of life.

Phenotypes of sleep health among adults with chronic heart failure in a randomized controlled trial of cognitive behavioral therapy for insomnia

BACKGROUND

Poor sleep contributes to adverse health in heart failure. However, studies are limited to isolated sleep characteristics.

PURPOSES

To evaluate changes in sleep health phenotypes after cognitive behavioral therapy for insomnia or attention control and associations between sleep health phenotypes, symptoms, stress, functional performance, and emergency department visits and hospitalizations.

METHODS

Secondary analysis of a randomized controlled trial of cognitive behavioral therapy for insomnia among adults with heart failure. We measured sleep (rest-activity rhythms, sleep duration, quality, and efficiency, insomnia severity, daytime sleepiness), symptoms, cognitive ability, vigilance, and 6-minute walk distance at baseline and 3-, 6-, and 12-month postintervention and collected hospitalizations and emergency department visits. We used K-means cluster analysis and generalized linear mixed models, generalized estimating equations, and Cox proportional hazard models.

RESULTS

Among 166 participants (M age=63.2 (SD=12.6) years; 57% male; 23% New York Heart Association Class III/IV), there were four sleep health phenotypes ("Unstable Sleep" (15%); "Short Sleep" (39%); "Low Sleep Efficiency" (25%); and "Good Sleep" (21%)) at baseline. The healthiest phenotype was associated with the lowest fatigue. The proportions of participants in the healthiest sleep group increased from pre- to post-treatment. Low sleepiness (p = .0188) and a robust circadian quotient (p = .007) predicted transition to the healthiest phenotype. The poorest sleep phenotype at baseline predicted time to hospitalizations and emergency department visits (hazard ratios 0.35-0.60) after adjusting for covariates.

CONCLUSION

Sleep phenotypes predict heart failure outcomes. Tailored interventions targeting phenotypes may be more effective than approaches that focus on single sleep characteristics.

Trajectories of cold but not mechanical sensitivity correspond with disability trajectories after whiplash injury

ABSTRACT

Developmental trajectories for neck disability after whiplash injury have been identified. Their relationship to cold and mechanical sensitivity trajectories is not known. We aimed to (1) identify recovery trajectories of cold and mechanical sensitivity, (2) explore their codevelopment with disability trajectories, (3) identify predictors of sensitivity trajectories, and (4) explore codevelopment of cold and mechanical sensitivity trajectories. Participants (n = 233) were assessed at <1, 3, 6, and 12 months after whiplash injury. Outcomes were cold pain detection threshold (CPT at neck), pressure pain detection thresholds (PPT, neck C5, and tibialis anterior), and the Neck Disability Index. We used group-based trajectory models to identify postinjury recovery trajectories and multinominal logistic regression to explore associations between baseline characteristics and trajectory membership. We identified the following trajectory groups: CPT (low [50.0%], moderate [29.7%], and high [20.4%] sensitivity); PPT C5 (low [10.8%] and high [89.2%] sensitivity); and PPT tibialis anterior (low [23.9%], moderate [39.0%], and high [37.1%] sensitivity); all were stable over the 12 months. There was good correspondence between disability and cold sensitivity trajectory groups but not for mechanical sensitivity; cold and mechanical sensitivity trajectories were not well associated. Higher baseline pain predicted membership of the high cold sensitivity trajectory (RR 1.27, 95% CI 1.01-1.59) and hyperarousal symptoms predicted membership of the moderate cold sensitivity trajectory (RR 1.17, 95% CI 1.01-1.36). We found no associations between baseline characteristics and mechanical sensitivity. There is an interplay between cold allodynia, pain, and hyperarousal symptoms in development of ongoing disability after whiplash injury. Different mechanisms likely underlie cold and mechanical sensitivity.

Pre-diagnostic trajectory of pediatric hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis: observations from hematological and hepatic parameters

Understanding the early features and characteristics of hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (HLH) is essential for identifying high-risk individuals and also providing valuable pathological insights. This study aims to investigate the characteristics and trends of blood and hepatic parameters before an HLH diagnosis was established. Longitudinal hematological and hepatic test results from pediatric patients with HLH and an age- and sex-matched control group were analyzed. According to the length of time between hospital admission and the establishment of the HLH diagnosis, the HLH cases were divided into early-onset (≤ 7 days) and late-onset (> 7days) groups. Among the 229 pediatric HLH patients, the length of time between hospital admission and the establishment of an HLH diagnosis ranged from 0 to 41 days (median = 4 days). Over 80% of pediatric HLH patients presented abnormal laboratory results for aspartate aminotransferase (AST), triglycerides, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and hemoglobin at admission. The abnormal rates in the initial platelet count, neutrophil count, and fibrinogen tests were 67.3%, 48.3%, and 52.2%, respectively. The initial test results for AST, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), LDH, serum sodium, and albumin showed AUCs > 80% for discriminating early-onset HLH. For the discrimination of late-onset HLH, the performance of initial test results was poor. To conclude, abnormalities in AST, triglycerides, LDH, and hemoglobin are early presentations of pediatric HLH; platelet, neutrophil, and fibrinogen levels may become abnormal at a relatively late stage of the HLH disease trajectory; and the initial test results for AST, ALT, LDH, serum sodium, and albumin can be used to identify suspected early-onset HLH.

Distinct trajectories of symptomatic response in ulcerative colitis during filgotinib therapy: A post hoc analysis from the SELECTION study

BACKGROUND

Filgotinib is an oral, once-daily, Janus kinase 1 preferential inhibitor approved for treatment of ulcerative colitis (UC) following the phase 2b/3 SELECTION trial. Identification of patient populations and factors associated with long-term treatment response trajectories may improve UC management.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to identify and describe distinct patient subgroups of response to filgotinib based on partial Mayo Clinic Score (pMCS) trajectories over time.

METHODS

In these post hoc analyses of SELECTION, group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) was applied to pMCS to describe groups of distinct, symptom-based patient trajectories using data from patients who responded to filgotinib 200 or 100 mg and continued receiving filgotinib up to week 58. Patient demographics, disease characteristics, and week 10 response were compared between the groups. Achievement of a patient-level multi-component endpoint of comprehensive disease control (CDC) was assessed in each group.

RESULTS

GBTM identified five distinct patient populations with different response trajectories; 67.5% of patients had beneficial trajectories. The beneficial trajectory groups generally had higher proportions of patients who were recently diagnosed (<1 year), were receiving filgotinib 200 mg and were biologic-naive versus the relapsing trajectory groups (4%-9% vs. 4%-5%; 43%-65% vs. 36%-46%; 54%-70% vs. 35%-58%, respectively). Furthermore, 55.4% of patients had sustained beneficial trajectories, with low baseline endoscopic subscores (≥43% of patients had a subscore of 2) and strong week 10 FCP responses (≥61% of patients with >50% decrease in FCP from baseline). Sustained beneficial trajectory groups had a higher probability of achieving CDC at week 58 than other groups (31%-32% vs. 0%-7%).

CONCLUSIONS

Beneficial long-term response trajectories and achievement of CDC with filgotinib were associated with being biologic-naive and having less severe disease at baseline. Early estimation of sustained and CDC may facilitate patient identification and development of personalized management strategies in UC.

CLINICALTRIALS

GOV IDENTIFIER

NCT02914522.

Trajectories of depressive symptoms in early to mid-adolescence: associations with school pedagogical and social climate

AIMS

Adolescence is a critical period for mental health development, yet research exploring how contextual factors influence the development of depressive symptoms remains limited. This study explored trajectories of depressive symptoms during early to mid-adolescence and their association with various aspects of school climate.

METHODS

The study sample comprised 3671, 7th-grade students (aged 12-13 years) from 101 schools across Sweden, followed longitudinally across three time points spanning grades 7, 8 and 9. Depressive symptom trajectories were identified using latent class growth modelling. The Pedagogical and Social Climate questionnaire assessed school climate, and multinomial logistic regression was employed to predict trajectory membership based on sociodemographic and school climate factors.

RESULTS

Four distinct developmental patterns of depressive symptoms emerged: 'Sustained low symptoms' (76.7%), 'Low-increasing' (10.9%), 'Sustained high symptoms' (7.9%), and 'High-decreasing' (4.5%). Gender, parental education and six specific school climate factors, out of the total 19 examined, significantly distinguished these trajectory classes. Positive teacher expectations and strong principal involvement were associated with more favourable trajectories, whereas teaching activities, teacher support and communication between school and home were associated with less favourable trajectories, suggesting a nuanced understanding of their relationship with depressive symptom trajectories.

CONCLUSIONS

Few school factors were found to be relevant to depressive symptoms, highlighting the importance of considering external factors beyond the school environment in supporting adolescents during this developmental stage. Although the findings are multifaceted, it is primarily positive interpersonal relationships, especially through teacher expectations, that stand out as significant factors in promoting youth mental health.

Regional variations in primary percutaneous coronary intervention for acute myocardial infarction patients: A trajectory analysis using the national claims database in Japan

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have demonstrated geographical disparities regarding the quality of care for acute myocardial infarction (AMI). The aim of this study was two-fold: first, to calculate the proportion of patients with AMI who received primary percutaneous coronary interventions (pPCIs) by secondary medical areas (SMAs), which provide general inpatient care, as a quality indicator (QI) of the process of AMI practice. Second, to identify patterns in their trajectories and to investigate the factors related to regional differences in their trajectories.

METHODS

We included patients hospitalized with AMI between April 2014 and March 2020 from the national health insurance claims database in Japan and calculated the proportion of pPCIs across 335 SMAs and fiscal years. Using these proportions, we conducted group-based trajectory modeling to identify groups that shared similar trajectories of the proportions. In addition, we investigated area-level factors that were associated with the different trajectories.

RESULTS

The median (interquartile range) proportions of pPCIs by SMAs were 63.5% (52.9% to 70.5%) in FY 2014 and 69.6% (63.3% to 74.2%) in FY 2020. Four groups, named low to low (LL; n = 48), low to middle (LM; n = 16), middle to middle (MM; n = 68), and high to high (HH; n = 208), were identified from our trajectory analysis. The HH and MM groups had higher population densities and higher numbers of physicians and cardiologists per capita than the LL and LM groups. The LL and LM groups had similar numbers of physicians per capita, but the number of cardiologists per capita in the LM group increased over the years of the study compared with the LL group.

CONCLUSION

The trajectory of the proportion of pPCIs for AMI patients identified groups of SMAs. Among the four groups, the LM group showed an increasing trend in the proportions of pPCIs, whereas the three other groups showed relatively stable trends.

Body mass index trajectories and time in target range after delivery and long-term type 2 diabetes risk in women with a history of gestational diabetes mellitus

AIMS

This study aims to determine whether postpartum body mass index (BMI) trajectories and its time in target range (TTR) are associated with long-term type 2 diabetes risk in women with a history of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The present study included 1057 women with a history of GDM who participated in the Tianjin Gestational Diabetes Mellitus Prevention Program (TGDMPP). Oral glucose tolerance tests or physician-diagnosed information were used to diagnose type 2 diabetes after a median follow-up period of 8.47 years. Latent class modelling was applied to identify trajectories of BMI after delivery. TTR was defined as the proportion of time that BMI was within the standard range (18.5 ≤ BMI < 24.0 kg/m2). The associations of BMI trajectories and TTR with type 2 diabetes risk were analysed using multivariable Cox modelling.

RESULTS

Five distinct trajectories of postpartum BMI were identified. Compared with low-stable class, the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios of type 2 diabetes were 2.02 (95% confidence interval 0.99-4.10) for median-stable class, 3.01 (1.17-7.73) for high-stable class, 2.15 (0.63-7.38) for U-shape class and 7.15 (2.08-24.5) for inverse U-shape class (p for trend = 0.012), respectively. Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios of type 2 diabetes associated with postpartum BMI TTR of 100%, >43.4%-<100%, >0%-≤43.4% and 0% were 1.00, 1.84 (0.72-4.73), 2.75 (1.23-6.15) and 2.31 (1.05-5.08) (p for trend = 0.039), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Postpartum BMI trajectories of high-stable and inverse U-shape class as well as lower TTR were associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes among women with a history of GDM. Reducing BMI to a normal range in the early postpartum period and maintaining stable over time could attenuate the development of long-term type 2 diabetes.

The mediating role of systemic inflammation in the association between bedroom light at night and new-onset depressive symptoms among Chinese young adults: A prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The detrimental effects of exposure to light at night (LAN) have received increasing attention. However, the effects of LAN exposure on depressive symptoms and underlying mechanism are less explored.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the association between LAN exposure with new-onset and trajectories of depressive symptoms, and the potential mediating role of systemic inflammation.

METHODS

Baseline bedroom LAN exposure was monitored every minute for 2 consecutive nights using a portable illuminance meter. Fasting blood samples were collected at the 1-year follow-up to determine high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP). Depressive symptoms were assessed at baseline, 1- and 2-year follow-up using the Mood and Feelings Questionnaire (MFQ).

RESULTS

At baseline, the mean age of the 347 participants was 18.7 ± 0.8 years, and 35.2 % were men. At 2-year follow-up, the new-onset depressive symptoms were 14.7 %. Compared with low-LANavg (average light intensity from bedtime to rising time) intensity group (LANavg < 3 lx), those with high-LANavg intensity (LANavg ≥ 3 lx) were associated with an 125 % increase in risk for depressive symptoms (HR = 2.25; 95 % CI: 1.27, 4.00); Compared with short-LAN5 (duration of nighttime light intensity ≥5 lx) duration group (LAN5 < 45 min), those with long-LAN5 duration (LAN5 ≥ 45 min) were associated with an 119 % increase in risk for depressive symptoms (HR = 2.19; 95 % CI: 1.18, 4.06). Participants were classified into 3 trajectory groups: consistently low, slow or rapid increase depressive symptoms; both intensity and duration of LAN exposure were associated with higher likelihood of slow or rapid increase depressive symptoms. Additionally, hs-CRP partially mediated the relationship between intensity (mediation proportion: 7.1 %) and duration (mediation proportion: 10.6 %) of LAN exposure with depressive symptoms.

CONCLUSION

Excessive bedroom LAN exposure is associated with increased risk of depressive symptoms among young adults, and systemic inflammation may be a partial mediator in the LAN-depressive symptoms association.

Sex-specific associations between body mass index trajectories and risk of hypertension

BACKGROUND

Although it is well established that obesity is a risk factor for hypertension, the effect of distinct long-term patterns of body mass index (BMI) on blood pressure (BP) in later life is poorly understood.

METHODS

Based on the China Health and Nutrition Survey, we analyzed 2920 participants aged 3-17 years with initial normal BP at baseline (1991-2011), who were followed up for the development of hypertension (1993-2015). The group-based trajectory model was applied to identify BMI trajectories, and Cox regression was used to assess their associations with hypertension risk. Stratified analyses were conducted to explore differences across subgroups.

RESULTS

During an average follow-up time of 11.20 (7.69) years for males and 7.20 (5.21) years for females, 339 males and 212 females were identified with hypertension, respectively. Three BMI trajectories were identified: low-increasing (60.58% of males and 73.03% of females), moderate-increasing (33.08% of males and 24.22% of females), and high-increasing (6.34% of males and 2.76% of females). Our study found a significant positive association between a higher BMI trajectory and hypertension risk in males (all P for trend < 0.05). Specifically, males in the high-increasing BMI group had a higher risk of hypertension compared with those in the low-increasing group (HR = 1.76, 95% CI: 1.04-2.97). Stratified analyses revealed stronger associations among smokers, drinkers, and inactive individuals.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that maintaining a normal BMI and healthy lifestyle from childhood may lower subsequent risk of hypertension.

Association of lifestyle trajectory and total lifestyle change score with risk of metabolic syndrome: The prospective community-based Ansung-Ansan cohort study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

We aimed to examine the association of lifestyle trajectory and total lifestyle change score with the risk of metabolic syndrome (MetS).

METHODS

We analyzed 2048 participants aged 40-69 years without MetS at baseline in the Ansung-Ansan cohort study. Lifestyle trajectories were identified using group based trajectory analysis, and total lifestyle change score were identified using index analysis. Healthy lifestyle trajectory and total lifestyle change score as exposure, and MetS as outcome. Cox proportional-hazards regression was used to examine the hazard ratios (HRs) for the exposure-outcome association.

RESULTS

During the median 9.8-year follow-up, 756 cases were recorded. Compared with those in the stable low healthy lifestyle trajectory, the stable high healthy lifestyle trajectory showed a protective effect on reducing the risk of MetS (men: HR, 0.47; 95 % confidence interval [95 % CI], 0.34-0.66; women: HR, 0.62; 95 % CI, 0.43-0.91). Similar results were observed in the index based analysis, compared with those with lower total lifestyle change scores, men and women with higher scores had 46 % and 47 % lower risks of developing MetS, respectively (men: HR, 0.54; 95%CI, 0.41-0.71; women: HR, 0.53; 95 % CI, 0.41-0.68).

CONCLUSIONS

Stable healthy lifestyle trajectory was associated with a reduced risk of MetS among Korean adults. Furthermore, a higher total lifestyle change score was inversely associated with the risk of MetS.

Trajectories and Predictors of Weight-Bearing and Non-Weight-Bearing Pain in Knee Osteoarthritis: A 9-Year Follow-Up Study

Objective

To identify distinct developmental trajectories of weight-bearing pain (WBP) and non-weight-bearing pain (NWBP) and examine the trajectory predictors in individuals with or at risk of knee osteoarthritis.

Methods

We included 971 participants from the Osteoarthritis Initiative whose baseline magnetic resonance imaging data and 9-year follow-up data on pain were available. We applied group-based trajectory modeling to identify WBP and NWBP trajectories over 9 years. Univariate and multivariate multinomial logistic regression analyses were performed to examine the predictors of identified trajectories.

Results

Three distinct WBP trajectories were identified: "no pain" (32.4%), "mild pain" (44.6%), and "moderate pain" (23%). Three distinct NWBP trajectories were identified: "no pain" (50.9%), "mild pain" (33.4%), and "moderate pain" (15.7%). In multivariate analyses, high body mass index, depression, multisite pain, radiographic knee OA, and comorbidities were associated with worse development trajectories for WBP and NWBP. Weak quadriceps strength and bone marrow lesion were only associated with worse WBP trajectories, whereas low education level was only associated with worse NWBP trajectories.

Conclusion

The developmental course of pain is heterogeneous in WBP or NWBP. Quadriceps strength and bone marrow leisure may be WBP-specific predictors, whereas education level may be a NWBP-specific predictor. The assessment of knee pain should be more accurate, which may help select appropriate therapeutic targets.

Differential Treatment Responses of Maltreated and Neglected Children and Adolescents Following an Evidence-based Multisystemic Intervention

Limited studies have investigated differential treatment responses to family-based treatment programs and subgroup trajectories in youth in a high-risk context. This study pioneered an examination of Multisystemic Therapy for Child Abuse and Neglect (MST-CAN) and built on prior research that identified subgroups with different psychopathologies. Participants included 208 parent-child dyads enrolled in the MST-CAN evaluation in Switzerland. Parents reported their children's (Mage = 10.27 years, SDage = 3.5, 44.2% girls, 55.8% boys, 98.6% White) emotional and behavioral problems. Longitudinal data were examined to analyze the differential changes within the pre- and post-treatment (T1 and T2) subgroups. The T1 cluster and T2 cluster were cross-tabulated to examine changes in the symptom class over time. Overall, the treatment proved to be highly beneficial. Subgroup analyses revealed that four out of the five subgroups (80%) showed positive changes in at least two outcome measures. The treatment was most successful for children with externalizing symptoms. Children with multiple symptoms also showed improvements across different symptoms. Regarding specific symptoms, children with anxious-avoidant symptoms benefited from the treatment. Additionally, the treatment was beneficial for children with normative emotions and behavior. Meanwhile, the treatment did not have any significant effects for children with internalizing symptoms. Notably, child neglect was reduced in three (60%) subgroups. The symptom class remained stable across time for children with externalizing and multiple symptoms. Ultimately, MST-CAN reduced emotional and behavioral problems and child neglect in most families. Understanding children's differential treatment responses to complex treatment programs is essential to adequately address different needs.

Changes in Antipsychotic Medication Adherence Among Medicaid Beneficiaries with Schizophrenia During COVID-19

To identify patterns of medication adherence during the pandemic and factors associated with these patterns among Medicaid-enrolled individuals with schizophrenia who had highly adherent medication use prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. We used Medicaid claims from Philadelphia to identify individuals with schizophrenia ≥ 18 years of age, their demographic characteristics, and health service use. We used group trajectory models to identify adherence trends, and ANOVA to examine associations between adherence groups and demographic characteristics and service use. The sample included 1,622 individuals. A 4-group trajectory model best fit our data. Seventy percent of individuals averaged about 92% adherence throughout the study period; 10% experienced a pronounced decline when the pandemic started (pandemic non-adherers); 11% experienced a sharp decline mid-pandemic (late non-adherers); and 9% experienced a sharp decline at the beginning of the pandemic and returned to higher adherence after a year (disrupted adherers). Adherers were least likely to be diagnosed with a substance use disorder, and had more telehealth visits, mental health outpatient visits, and fewer emergency department visits on average. Late non-adherers were more likely than adherers to have substance use disorders and physical health conditions. Pandemic non-adherers had more co-occurring psychiatric disorders than adherers and had the lowest use of case management. Three in ten previously adherent individuals with schizophrenia became less adherent to antipsychotic medications, either at the onset or later in the pandemic. Our findings point to telehealth and case management as critical strategies for treatment engagement, especially during public health crises, and well as the need to address co-occurring conditions.

Trajectories of work disability and unemployment before and after a common mental disorder diagnosis among young private sector employees in Sweden-a register-based longitudinal study

PURPOSE

To identify trajectory groups of work disability (WD), including sick leave and disability pension, and unemployment three years before and six years (from Y-3 to Y + 6) after a common mental disorder (CMD) diagnosis and to investigate associations of socio-demographic, work-related and clinical factors with trajectory membership.

METHODS

A longitudinal nationwide register-based study was conducted including individuals aged 22-29 years, gainfully employed in the private sector, with a CMD diagnosis in specialised healthcare or prescribed antidepressant (N = 12,121) in 2014 (Year 0/Y0), with follow-up from Y-3 to Y + 6. Group-based trajectory analyses identified groups of individuals who followed similar trajectories of months of WD and unemployment, respectively. Multinomial logistic regression determined associations between socio-demographic, work-related and clinical factors and trajectory membership.

RESULTS

In the CMD group, we identified three trajectory groups, each for WD and unemployment. Only 7% individuals belonged to a 'Fluctuant high' trajectory group with four months of WD in Y0, which peaked at 7 months in Y + 3 and reduced to 5 months in Y + 6. For unemployment, 15% belonged to an 'Increasing medium' trajectory group that steadily increased from 1.3 months in Y0 to 2.6 months in Y + 6. Sex, educational level and musculoskeletal disorders for WD, and educational level, living area and occupational class for unemployment, influentially determined the variance across the CMD trajectory groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Specific vulnerable groups regarding unfavourable WD (women, low education and musculoskeletal disorders) and unemployment (manual work, low education and rural residence) trajectories require special attention regarding their return-to-work process following a CMD diagnosis.

Exploring the association between multidimensional social isolation and heterogeneous cognitive trajectories among older adults: evidence from China

Objective

This study aims to elucidate the heterogeneous cognitive trajectories among older adults in China through a comprehensive, nationally representative longitudinal study. Furthermore, it seeks to investigate the impact of multidimensional social isolation on heterogeneous cognitive trajectories among older adults in China.

Methods

Utilizing data from three successive waves of the Chinese Longitudinal Aging Social Survey (CLASS) spanning 2016 to 2020, this investigation quantified baseline social isolation across three dimensions-family isolation, friend isolation, and subjective isolation-alongside cognitive function scores of older adults, measured across all three waves. Through latent class growth models, heterogeneous cognitive trajectories were delineated. The influence of family isolation, friend isolation, and subjective isolation on these cognitive trajectories was examined employing multinomial logistic regression analysis.

Results

The study included 6,378 participants aged 60 and above, revealing three primary cognitive trajectories: High baseline stable group (68.8%), High baseline but declining group (21.7%), and Low baseline deteriorating group (9.5%). Adjusting for variables such as personal physical characteristics, social networks, living and working conditions, and the surrounding policy environment, the findings indicated that family isolation did not significantly affect cognitive function's high-level decline or low-level deterioration. Conversely, friend isolation markedly increased the risk of high-level cognitive decline (OR = 1.289) and low-level cognitive deterioration (OR = 1.592). Similarly, subjective isolation significantly heightened the risk for both high-level decline (OR = 1.254) and low-level deterioration (OR = 1.29) in cognitive function.

Conclusion

Mitigating friend and subjective isolation among older adults appears to be a more effective strategy in preventing or delaying cognitive decline, potentially reducing the strain on healthcare and social welfare systems.

Trajectories of craving in the course of pharmacotherapy trials for methamphetamine use disorder

AIMS

The aim of this study was to measure trajectories of craving for methamphetamine during the course of pharmacotherapy trials for methamphetamine use disorder.

DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Craving trajectories were identified using Group-Based Trajectory Modeling. The association of craving trajectories with drug use trajectories was examined using a dual trajectory model. Association of craving trajectories with other health and social outcomes was also examined. The study used pooled data from five randomized controlled pharmacotherapy trials for methamphetamine use disorder. A total of 866 adults with methamphetamine use disorder participated in randomized controlled pharmacotherapy trials.

MEASUREMENT

Craving was assessed weekly using the Brief Substance Craving Scale. Drug use was assessed using urine toxicology. Alcohol- and drug-related problems, as well as psychiatric, medical, legal, employment and relationship problems, were measured using the Addiction Severity Index.

FINDINGS

A three-trajectory model with high, medium and low craving trajectories was selected as the most parsimonious model. Craving trajectories were associated with methamphetamine use trajectories in the course of trial; 88.4% of those in the high craving trajectory group had a consistently high frequency of methamphetamine use compared with 18.7% of those in the low craving group. High craving was also associated with less improvement in most other outcomes and higher rate of dropout from treatment. In turn, low craving was associated with a rapidly decreasing frequency of methamphetamine use, greater improvement in most other outcomes and a lower rate of dropout. Participants on modafinil daily and ondansetron 1 mg twice daily were less likely to be in the high craving group compared with those on placebo.

CONCLUSIONS

Trajectories of methamphetamine craving in the course of clinical trials for methamphetamine use disorder appear to be both highly variable and strongly associated with greater frequency of drug use, other drug-related outcomes and dropout from trials. Two medications, modafinil daily and ondansetron at a dose of 1 mg two times daily, appear to be associated with greater reduction in craving in the course of treatment compared with placebo. A decrease in methamphetamine craving shows promise as an early indicator of recovery from methamphetamine use disorder.

Associations between sleep duration trajectories and risk of cardio-metabolic disease among middle-aged and older Chinese adults

BACKGROUND

The association of a single time-point measure of sleep duration with cardio-metabolic disease has been extensively studied, but few studies have focused on the impact of sleep duration trajectory. This study aims to model the sleep duration trajectory as predictors for the subsequent development of cardio-metabolic disease.

METHODS

This study recruited a notably large population (n = 9883) of subjects aged at least 45 years from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), who participated in sequential surveys conducted in 2011, 2013, 2015, and 2018. Sleep duration trajectories were plotted using data of night sleep duration recorded at intervals from 2011 to 2015 by latent class trajectory model. The onset of cardio-metabolic diseases from 2015 to 2018 were confirmed and then the risk of different sleep duration trajectories on incident cardio-metabolic disease was examined using cox proportional hazards regression model.

RESULTS

We identified four sleep duration trajectories. Compared to the normal-stable trajectory, the short-stable trajectory was significantly associated with higher risk of incident stroke (hazard ratio [HR], 1.32; 95 % confidence interval [CI], 1.02 to 1.70), dyslipidemia (HR, 1.22; 95%CI, 1.01 to 1.49), and diabetes (HR, 1.42; 95%CI, 1.13 to 1.78) within three years of follow-up, and the short-increasing trajectory predicted a higher risk of incident stroke (HR, 2.38; 95%CI, 1.25 to 4.55).

CONCLUSIONS

Short sleep trajectory could increase the risk of incident stroke, dyslipidemia, and diabetes, and an increasing sleep trajectory was associated with increased risk of incident stroke among middle-aged and older Chinese adults.

Change of leisure activity participation and associations with cognitive frailty in older adults: A population-based longitudinal study

OBJECTIVES

To examine changes in leisure activity participation and their associations with cognitive frailty among older adults.

METHODS

The study utilized data from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey covering 2008-2018. Three distinct intervals represented short-term (2008-2011), medium-term (2008-2014) and long-term (2008-2018) changes in leisure activity participation, and the change patterns of levels of leisure activities based on the tertile were described. Restricted cubic splines (RCS) were used to determine the inflection point of the absolute value of leisure activity participation over two time points. Group-based trajectory modeling identified trajectories of leisure activity participation among participants from 2008 to 2018. Logistic regression analysis examined how changes in leisure activity participation impacted cognitive frailty.

RESULTS

Five patterns of change in leisure activity participation were identified, including the persistently low group, the declining (medium-low, high-low, high-medium) group, persistently medium, rising (low-medium, low-high, medium-high), and persistently high levels of activity. A lower risk of cognitive frailty was found among three groups of persistently medium, rising, and persistently high levels of activity across three distinct intervals and among the declining group over the short-term and long-term intervals but not in the medium-term interval than among the persistently low group, respectively. RCS analysis showed that the inflection point of the association between absolute changes in leisure activity and cognitive frailty was -2.11 (short-term), -0.9 (medium-term), and -3.94 (long-term). Leisure activity trajectories were categorized into persistently low, persistently moderate, and persistently high groups, and both the persistently moderate and persistently high groups exhibited a lower risk of cognitive frailty compared to the persistently low group.

CONCLUSION

Persistently moderate to high levels and increasing levels of leisure activities can reduce the risk of cognitive frailty in the short, medium, and long term, and even the declining in leisure activity participation less than the threshold could protect against cognitive frailty, particularly in the short and long term.

Social Characteristics and Adherence to Adjuvant Endocrine Therapy in Premenopausal Women With Breast Cancer

PURPOSESocial characteristics, including cohabitation/marital status and socioeconomic position (SEP)-education level, employment status, and income-influence breast cancer prognosis. We investigated the impact of these social characteristics on adherence to adjuvant endocrine therapy (AET) from treatment initiation to 5 years after diagnosis.METHODSWe assembled a nationwide, population-based cohort of premenopausal women diagnosed in Denmark with stage I-III, estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer during 2002-2011. We ascertained prediagnostic social characteristics from national registries. AET adherence was based on information from the Danish Breast Cancer Group and operationalized as (1) adherence trajectories (from group-based trajectory modeling) and (2) early discontinuation. We computed odds ratios (ORs) and associated 95% CI to estimate the association of cohabitation and SEP with AET adherence using multinomial and logistic regression models adjusted according to directed acyclic graphs.RESULTSAmong 4,353 patients, we identified three adherence trajectories-high adherence (57%), slow decline (36%), and rapid decline (6.9%). Compared with cohabiting women, those living alone had higher ORs of slow (1.26 [95% CI, 1.08 to 1.46]) or rapid decline (1.66 [95% CI, 1.27 to 2.18]) versus high adherence. The corresponding ORs for women not working versus employed women were 1.22 (95% CI, 1.02 to 1.45) and 1.76 (95% CI, 1.30 to 2.38). For early discontinuation (17%), the ORs were 1.48 (95% CI, 1.23 to 1.78) for living alone and 1.44 (95% CI, 1.17 to 1.78) for women not working.CONCLUSIONAdherence to AET was lower among women living alone or unemployed than cohabiting or employed women, respectively. These women may benefit from support programs to enhance AET adherence.

Longitudinal trajectories and associated risk factors of paternal mental illness in the nine years surrounding the transition to fatherhood

BACKGROUND

The arrival of one's first child is a known risk factor for mental illness, yet investigations on fathers' mental health are limited. We conducted a longitudinal investigation on paternal depression and anxiety in the nine years surrounding the transition to fatherhood.

METHODS

Using a national cohort of French men (CONSTANCES, n = 6299), we investigated the prevalence and associated risk factors of mental illness amongst first-time fathers. Responses to the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression (CES-D) and 12-item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) scales were used to identify clinically significant symptom scores. Self-declared mental illness was also reported by participants. Group-based modelling was used to identify latent trajectory groups for both measures.

RESULTS

Levels of self-declared anxiety (averaging 4.9 % pre-fatherhood, 7.8 % post) exceeded that of depression (1.9 % pre- fatherhood, 3.3 % post) or other disorders. However, rates of clinically significant symptom scores (17-27 %) were consistently higher. Participants' mental health appeared to worsen from two-years prior to their child's arrival and improve from two-years after. We identified three trajectory groups for fathers' self-declared mental illness: Low stable (90.3 %); Low risk with high temporary increase (5.6 %); and Consistent high risk (4.1 %). Risk factors associated with worsening mental health trajectories were unemployment, not living with one's partner, having had adverse childhood experiences and foregoing healthcare due to financial reasons.

LIMITATIONS

All measures of mental illness relied on participant self-reports and are thus subject to bias.

CONCLUSIONS

This study reveals an important period of heightened psychological vulnerability amongst first-time fathers, emphasising the need for increased and better adapted paternal mental health screening.

Patterns of physiotherapy attendance in compensated Australian workers with low back pain: a retrospective cohort study

ABSTRACT

Workers with low back pain (LBP) frequently seek care from physiotherapists. We sought to identify patterns of physiotherapy attendance and factors associated with these patterns in Australian workers with accepted compensation claims for LBP. We included workers with accepted workers' compensation claims for LBP from 4 Australian states between 2011 and 2015. We used trajectory modelling to identify distinct groups of workers based on the number (ie, volume) of monthly physiotherapy attendances over a 2-year period from claim acceptance. Descriptive statistics and logistic regression models were used to compare the characteristics of the groups. A small but significant proportion attend numerous times over a long period. 79.0% of the sample (N = 22,767) attended physiotherapy at least once in the 2 years after claim acceptance. Among these, trajectory modelling identified 4 distinct patterns of attendance. Most (N = 11,808, 51.9%) recorded a short-term low-volume pattern, 26.8% (n = 6089) recorded a short-term high-volume pattern, 14.3% (n = 3255) recorded a long-term low-volume pattern, and 7.1% (n = 1615) recorded a long-term high-volume pattern. Workers from Victoria (OR 0.34, 99% CI 0.31, 0.37), South Australia (OR 0.69, 99% CI 0.60, 0.80), and Western Australia (OR 0.79, 99% CI 0.69, 0.88) were significantly less likely to attend physiotherapy than workers from Queensland. Victorian workers were significantly more likely to be in one of the 2 long-term trajectory groups (OR 8.17, 99% CI 6.86, 9.73; OR 18.68, 99% CI 13.57, 25.70). In conclusion, most compensated Australian workers with LBP attend physiotherapy. Significant interjurisdictional differences between attendance patterns suggests that policy may play an important role in healthcare delivery.

Group-based trajectories of potentially preventable hospitalisations among older adults after a hip fracture

Key predictors of three trajectory group membership of potentially preventable hospitalisations were age, the number of comorbidities, the presence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and congestive heart failure, and frailty risk at the occurrence of hip fracture. These predictors of their trajectory group could be used in targeting prevention strategies.

PURPOSE

Although older adults with hip fracture have a higher risk of multiple readmissions after index hospitalisation, little is known about potentially preventable hospitalisations (PPH) after discharge. This study examined group-based trajectories of PPH during a five-year period after a hip fracture among older adults and identified factors predictive of their trajectory group membership.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study was conducted using linked hospitalisation and mortality data in New South Wales, Australia, between 2013 and 2021. Patients aged ≥ 65 years who were admitted after a hip fracture and discharged between 2014 and 2016 were identified. Group-based trajectory models were derived based on the number of subsequent PPH following the index hospitalisation. Multinominal logistic regression examined factors predictive of trajectory group membership.

RESULTS

Three PPH trajectory groups were revealed among 17,591 patients: no PPH (89.5%), low PPH (10.0%), and high PPH (0.4%). Key predictors of PPH trajectory group membership were age, number of comorbidities, dementia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), congestive heart failure (CHF), frailty risk, place of incident, surgery, rehabilitation, and length of hospital stay. The high PPH had a higher proportion of patients with ≥ 2 comorbidities (OR: 1.86, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.04-3.32) and COPD (OR: 2.97, 95%CIs: 1.76-5.04) than the low PPH, and the low and high PPHs were more likely to have CHF and high frailty risk as well as ≥ 2 comorbidities and COPD than the no PPH.

CONCLUSIONS

Identifying trajectories of PPH after a hip fracture and factors predictive of trajectory group membership could be used to target strategies to reduce multiple readmissions.

Improved Air Quality and Asthma Incidence from School Age to Young Adulthood: A Population-based Prospective Cohort Study

Rationale: The benefits of improved air quality on asthma remain understudied. Objectives: Our aim was to investigate associations of changes in ambient air pollution with incident asthma from school age until young adulthood in an area with mostly low air pollution levels. Methods: Participants in the BAMSE (Swedish abbreviation for Children, Allergy, Environment, Stockholm, Epidemiology) birth cohort from Stockholm without asthma before the 8-year follow-up were included (N = 2,371). We estimated the association of change in individual-level air pollutant exposure (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 μm [PM2.5] and ≤ 10 μm [PM10], black carbon [BC], and nitrogen oxides [NOx]) from the first year of life to the 8-year follow-up with asthma incidence from the 8-year until the 24-year follow-up. Multipollutant trajectories were identified using the group-based multivariate trajectory model. We also used parametric G-computation to quantify the asthma incidence under different hypothetical interventions regarding air pollution levels. Results: Air pollution levels at residency decreased during the period, with median reductions of 5.6% for PM2.5, 3.1% for PM10, 5.9% for BC, and 26.8% for NOx. A total of 395 incident asthma cases were identified from the 8-year until the 24-year follow-up. The odds ratio for asthma was 0.89 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.80-0.99) for each interquartile range reduction in PM2.5 (equal to 8.1% reduction). Associations appeared less clear for PM10, BC, and NOx. Five multipollutant trajectories were identified; the largest reduction trajectory displayed the lowest odds of asthma (odds ratio, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.31-0.98) compared with the lowest reduction trajectory. If the PM2.5 exposure had not declined up to the 8-year follow-up, the hypothetical asthma incidence was estimated to have been 10.9% higher (95% CI, 0.8-20.8%). Conclusions: A decrease in PM2.5 levels during childhood was associated with a lower risk of incident asthma from school age to young adulthood in an area with relatively low air pollution levels, suggesting broad respiratory health benefits from improved air quality.

Impact of family doctor system on diabetic patients with distinct service utilisation patterns: a difference-in-differences analysis based on group-based trajectory modelling

INTRODUCTION

This study examines the impact of China's family doctor system (FDS) on healthcare utilisation and costs among diabetic patients with distinct long-term service utilisation patterns.

METHODS

Conducted in City A, eastern China, this retrospective cohort study used data from the Health Information System and Health Insurance Claim Databases, covering diabetic patients from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2019.Patients were categorised into service utilisation trajectories based on quarterly outpatient visits to community health centres (CHCs) and secondary/tertiary hospitals from 2014 to 2017 using group-based trajectory models. Propensity score matching within each trajectory group matched FDS-enrolled patients (intervention) with non-enrolled patients (control). Difference-in-differences analysis compared outcomes between groups, with a SUEST test for cross-model comparison. Outcomes included outpatient visits indicator, costs indicator and out-of-pocket (OOP) expenses.

RESULTS

Among 17 232 diabetic patients (55.21% female, mean age 62.85 years), 13 094 were enrolled in the FDS (intervention group) and 4138 were not (control group). Patients were classified into four trajectory groups based on service utilisation from 2014 to 2017: (1) low overall outpatient utilisation, (2) high CHC visits, (3) high secondary/tertiary hospital visits and (4) high overall outpatient utilisation. After enrolled in FDS From 2018 to 2019, the group with high secondary/tertiary hospital visits saw a 6.265 increase in CHC visits (225.4% cost increase) and a 3.345 decrease in hospital visits (55.5% cost reduction). The high overall utilisation group experienced a 4.642 increase in CHC visits (109.5% cost increase) and a 1.493 decrease in hospital visits. OOP expenses were significantly reduced across all groups.

CONCLUSION

The FDS in China significantly increases primary care utilisation and cost, while reducing hospital visits and costs among diabetic patients, particularly among patients with historically high hospital usage. Policymakers should focus on enhancing the FDS to further encourage primary care usage and improve chronic disease management.

Physical Function Trajectory among High-Functioning Long-Term Care Facility Residents: Utilizing Japanese National Data

Physical function trajectory (PFT) is associated with mortality and hospitalization risks. We aimed to identify and compare the PFTs of newly admitted high-functioning older adults during their first six months at long-term care (LTC) facilities. In this multicenter retrospective cohort study, we included newly admitted high-functioning older adults (Barthel index > 60) from 47 Japanese LTC facilities. The primary outcome was physical function changes after admission. Data were collected from the Long-Term Care Information System for Evidence (LIFE), which monitored LTC facility residents' function between 1 January 2021 and 31 January 2022. A group-based trajectory model and binomial logistic regression analyses were applied to identify and compare residents' PFTs. Among the 718 residents included, the average age was 85.69 years and 64.5% were female. PFTs were classified as maintenance (66.0%), improvement (9.5%), slight decline (16.6%), and large decline (7.9%). The improvement group had significantly fewer residents who expressed a lack of interest in daily activities (odds ratio (OR) 0.45; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.21-0.97) compared to the maintenance group. The large decline group had significantly more residents with a low BMI at admission (OR 2.42; 95% CI 1.29-4.55) and residents who did not use dentures (OR 0.49; 95% CI 0.26-0.95), compared to the maintenance group. Considering future PFTs may aid the development of care plans and the provision of appropriate interventions. Moreover, utilizing existing data has the potential to maintain residents' physical independence and enhance the quality of care without burdening residents themselves or staff.

Mothers' and their children's emotional and behavioral symptom trajectories and subsequent maternal adjustment: Twenty-seven years of motherhood

BACKGROUND

This study aims to describe maternal depressive symptoms (MDS) trajectories in a longitudinal study extending from pregnancy to 27 years after the birth of the firstborn child. We also explored the associations of both MDS trajectories and child internalizing and externalizing problem trajectories with maternal adjustment (adaptive functioning, emotional and behavioral problems).

METHODS

The population-based study was conducted in Tampere, Finland, and the sample comprised 356 first-time mothers. MDS were screened with the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale during pregnancy, first week after delivery, 2 and 6 months postnatally, and when the child was 4-5, 8-9, 16-17, and 26-27 years of age. The internalizing and externalizing problems of the children were assessed with the Child Behavior Checklist when the child was 4-5, 8-9, and 16-17 years of age. Maternal adaptive functioning and internalizing and externalizing problems were assessed with the Adult Self Report at 26-27 years after the birth of the first child. Complete follow-up data were available for 168 mothers.

RESULTS

We describe a three-group trajectory model of MDS (High Stable, Low Stable, Very Low). Elevated depressive symptom patterns were associated with less optimal maternal outcomes regarding both adaptive and problem dimensions. The child's internalizing and externalizing problem trajectories were associated with maternal internalizing and externalizing problems but not with maternal adaptive functioning.

LIMITATIONS

Maternal and child measures were based on maternal reports only.

CONCLUSIONS

The interconnectedness of the well-being of the mother and child should be noted in health and mental health services for adults and children.

Age-related differences in the number of chronic diseases in association with trajectories of depressive symptoms: a population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

The number of chronic diseases has been associated with changes in depressive symptoms over time among middle-aged and older adults. This study aimed to explore the association between the number of chronic diseases and trajectories of depressive symptoms and the role of age in this association.

METHODS

A total of 12,974 middle-aged and older Chinese adults (≥ 45 years) participated in the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) in waves 2011, 2013, 2015, 2018, and 2020. The number of chronic diseases was determined by self-reported hospital diagnosis of hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes, cancer, chronic lung diseases, liver disease, heart diseases, stroke, kidney diseases, digestive diseases, emotional, nervous, or psychiatric problems, memory-related disease, arthritis or rheumatism, asthma, and then obtaining the total number of chronic diseases. Depressive symptoms were measured by the 10-item Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CESD-10). Group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) was adopted to capture the trajectories of depressive symptoms over time. Multinomial logistic regressions were conducted to examine the association between the number of chronic diseases and trajectories of depressive symptoms and the role of age in this association.

RESULTS

Four distinct trajectories of depressive symptoms were observed in 34.68% individuals in mild, 40.76% in moderate, 19.41% in increasing, and 5.15% in severe group. Compared to participants without chronic diseases, those with one, two, three or more chronic diseases had a 1.81, 3, and 7.49-fold higher risk of developing severe depressive symptom trajectory, respectively. Moreover, the association between the number of chronic diseases and severe depressive symptoms trajectory differed by age (45-59 and ≥ 60 years) (P for interaction < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Participants with middle age may play a promoting role in the association between the number of chronic disease and severe depressive symptoms. The severe depressive symptoms intervention may be more beneficial for middle-aged adults.

Latent Trajectories of Cerebral Perfusion Pressure and Risk Prediction Models Among Patients with Traumatic Brain Injury: Based on an Interpretable Artificial Neural Network

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to characterize long-term cerebral perfusion pressure (CPP) trajectory in traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients and construct an interpretable prediction model to assess the risk of unfavorable CPP evolution patterns.

METHODS

TBI patients with CPP records were identified from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-IV 2.1, eICU Collaborative Research Database (eICU-CRD) 2.0, and HiRID dataset 1.1.1. The research process consisted of 2 stages. First, group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) was used to identify different CPP trajectories. Second, different artificial neural network (ANN) algorithms were used to predict the trajectories of CPP.

RESULTS

A total of 331 eligible patients' records from MIMIC-IV 2.1 and eICU-CRD 2.0 were used for trajectory analysis and model development. Additionally, 310 patients' data from HiRID were used for external validation. The GBTM identified 5 CPP trajectory groups, group 1 and group 5 were merged into class 1 based on unfavorable in-hospital mortality. The best 6 predictors were invasive systolic blood pressure coefficient of variation, venous blood chloride ion concentration, PaCO2, prothrombin time, CPP coefficient of variation, and mean CPP. Compared with other algorithms, Scaled Conjugate Gradient performed relatively better in identifying class 1.

CONCLUSIONS

This study identified 2 CPP trajectory groups associated with elevated risk and 3 with reduced risk. PaCO2 might be a strong predictor for the unfavorable CPP class. The ANN model achieved the primary goal of risk stratification, which is conducive to early intervention and individualized treatment.

Longitudinal trajectories of blood glucose and 30-day mortality in patients with diabetes mellitus combined with acute myocardial infarction: A retrospective cohort analysis of the MIMIC database

BACKGROUND

Although blood glucose changes have been suggested to be a potential better target for clinical control than baseline blood glucose levels, the association of blood glucose changes with the prognosis in acute myocardial infarction (AMI) patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) is unclear. Herein, this study aimed to investigate association of short-term longitudinal trajectory of blood glucose with 30-day mortality in this population.

METHODS

Data of AMI patients with DM were extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC) database in 2003-2019 in this retrospective cohort study. The latent growth mixture modeling (LGMM) model was utilized to classify the 24-hour longitudinal trajectory of blood glucose of the patients. Kaplan-Meier (KM) curve was drawn to show 30-day mortality risk in patients with different trajectory classes. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were employed to explore the association of longitudinal trajectory of blood glucose within 24 hours after the ICU admission with 30-day mortality. Also, subgroups analysis of age, gender, and AMI types was performed. The evaluation indexes were hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

Among 1,523 eligible patients, 227 (14.9%) died within 30 days. We identified 4 longitudinal trajectories of blood glucose, including class 1 (a low initial average blood glucose level with steady trend within 24 hours), class 2 (a high initial average blood glucose with gently decreased trend), class 3 (the highest initial average blood glucose with rapidly decreased trend) and class 4 (a high initial average blood glucose level with the trend that increased at first and then decreased). After adjusting for covariates, an average blood glucose level of ≥200 mg/dL was linked to higher risk of 30-day mortality, comparing to that of <140 mg/dL (HR = 1.80, 95%CI: 1.23-2.63). Comparing to patients whose longitudinal trajectory of blood glucose conformed to class 1, those with class 2 (HR = 2.52, 95%CI: 1.79-3.53) or class 4 (HR = 3.53, 95%CI: 2.07-6.03) seemed to have higher risk of 30-day mortality. Additionally, these associations were also significant in aged ≥60 years old, female, male, NSTEMI, and STEMI subgroups (all P<0.05).

CONCLUSION

A low level of average blood glucose at the ICU admission or reducing blood glucose to a normal level quickly with adequate measures in 24 hours after ICU admission may be beneficial for AMI patients with DM to reduce the risk of 30-day mortality. These findings may provide some information for further exploration on appropriate range of blood glucose changes in clinical practice.

High-density lipoprotein cholesterol trajectory and new-onset metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease incidence: a longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

Although high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) exerts a significant influence on the development of metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD), the association of dynamic changes in HDL-C levels with the risk of MAFLD remains unclear. Thus, the aim of the current study was to explore the association between the changing trajectories of HDL-C and new-onset MAFLD. The findings of this study may provide a theoretical basis for future personalized intervention and prevention targeting MAFLD.

METHODS

A total of 1507 participants who met the inclusion criteria were recruited from a community-based physical examination population in Nanjing, China from 2017 to 2021. Group-based trajectory models were constructed to determine the heterogeneous HDL-C trajectories. The incidence of MAFLD in each group in 2022 was followed up, and the Cox proportional hazards regression model was applied to investigate the associations between different HDL-C trajectories and the risk of new-onset MAFLD.

RESULTS

The incidences of MAFLD in the low-stable, moderate-stable, moderate-high-stable, and high-stable groups of HDL-C trajectory were 26.5%, 13.8%, 7.2% and 2.6%, respectively. The incidence rate of MAFLD in the order of the above trajectory groups exhibited a decreasing trend (χ2 = 72.55, Ptrend<0.001). After adjusting for confounders, the risk of MAFLD onset in HDL-C low-stable group was still 5.421 times (95%CI: 1.303-22.554, P = 0.020) higher than that in the high-stable group. Subgroup analyses of the combined (moderate high-stable and high-stable groups combined), moderate-stable and low-stable groups showed that sex, age, and overweight/obesity did not affect the association between HDL-C trajectory and MAFLD risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Persistently low HDL-C level is a risk factor for the onset of MAFLD. Long-term monitoring of HDL-C levels and timely intervention for those experiencing persistent declines are crucial for early prevention of MAFLD.

Joint-trajectories of clinical severity, social functioning and cannabis use in first-episode psychosis: A 5-year longitudinal study in 2 urban early intervention services

Cannabis use is associated with increased psychosis incidence alongside worse outcomes. The role of cannabis may be complex, vary across patients and over time. Yet, few have examined the longer-term trajectories of cannabis use, symptoms and functioning and their inter-relationships. We conducted a 5-year longitudinal study to estimate joint-trajectories of clinical severity, social functioning, and cannabis use via group-based multi-trajectory modelling on a sample of 395 incident FEP cases. Associations of trajectories with socio-demographic and clinical factors were tested using multinomial regression. The best-fitting model identified 5 joint-trajectories. A first group (N = 93,23.7 %) presented only marginal improvement despite not using cannabis, while a second with no cannabis use and a third group with low-decreasing use showed clinical amelioration. Among those with baseline harmful cannabis use, a fourth group progressively discontinued use and improved clinically (N = 78,19.9 %). A fifth group with continued use did not significantly improve over follow-up (N = 74,18.8 %), and also had the highest odds of homelessness (OR = 22.5,95 %CI = 6.25-81.1) and childhood adversities (OR = 2.25,95 %CI = 1.71-2.97). There is substantial heterogeneity in the joint-trajectories of cannabis use and FEP outcomes. Our findings support the need for intervention aimed at cannabis reduction among heavy users. Multi-disciplinary, trauma-informed interventions may benefit those with persistent cannabis use, given its associations with childhood and social adversity.

Ten years trajectories of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in a multiethnic cohort of people with type 1 diabetes and preserved renal function

OBJECTIVES

We aim to evaluate estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) patterns of progression in a multiethnic cohort of people with type I diabetes mellitus and with baseline eGFR ≥45 mL/min/1.73 m2.

DESIGN

Observational cohort.

SETTING

People with a clinical diagnosis of type 1 diabetes, attending two university hospital-based outpatient diabetes clinics, in South London between 2004 and 2018.

PARTICIPANTS

We studied 1495 participants (52% females, 81% white, 12% African-Caribbean and 7% others).

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Clinical measures including weight and height, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure and laboratory results (such as serum creatinine, urine albumin to creatinine ratio (ACR), HbA1c were collected from electronic health records (EHRs) and eGFR was estimated by the Chronic Kidney Disease-Epidemiology Collaboration. Ethnicity was self-reported.

RESULTS

Five predominantly linear patterns/groups of eGFR trajectories were identified. Group I (8.5%) had a fast eGFR decline (>3 mL/min/1.73 m2 year). Group II (23%) stable eGFR, group III (29.8%), groups IV (26.3%) and V (12.4%) have preserved eGFR with no significant fall. Group I had the highest proportion (27.6%) of African-Caribbeans. Significant differences between group I and the other groups were observed in age, gender, HbA1C, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, body mass index, cholesterol and urine ACR, p<0.05 for all. At 10 years of follow-up, 33% of group I had eGFR <30 and 16.5%<15 (mL/min/1.73 m2).

CONCLUSIONS

Distinct trajectories of eGFR were observed in people with type 1 diabetes. The group with the highest risk of eGFR decline had a greater proportion of African-Caribbeans compared with others and has higher prevalence of traditional modifiable risk factors for kidney disease.

Dual trajectories of social participation and frailty in Chinese older adults: a longitudinal study based on CLHLS from 2008 to 2018

Introduction

This study aimed to identify the dual trajectories of social participation (SP) and frailty index (FI) among Chinese older adults, and investigate common influential factors of both trajectories.

Methods

Utilizing data from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) 2008-2018 surveys, 1,645 individuals were analyzed. A group-based dual trajectory model and logistic regression were used to examine trajectories, their interrelations and shared influencing factors.

Results

This study identified three SP, two FI trajectories and six distinct sub-groups of individuals. The study confirmed a long-term, interrelated relationship between two outcomes and identified some common factors. Compared to participants in the lower SP trajectory, those who followed the middle SP trajectory and higher SP trajectory had increased probabilities of belonging to the slow-growth FI trajectory (90.28 and 99.71%, respectively). And the participants in the slow-growth FI exhibited higher probabilities of belonging to the middle SP and the higher SP trajectory (37.64 and 25.34% higher, respectively) compared with those in the rapid-growth FI trajectory. Age, marital status, and drinking status were mutual factors associated with the dual trajectories.

Discussion

The results showed significant associations between higher levels of frailty and lower levels of social participation. Related intervention policies should consider the dual trajectories and the common factors that underlie these trajectories of SP and FI.

Evolution of dizziness-related disability in children following concussion: a group-based trajectory analysis

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to identify Dizziness-Related Disability (DRD) recovery trajectories in pediatric concussion and assess clinical predictors of disability groups.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In this prospective cohort study, 81 children (8-17 years) diagnosed with an acute concussion took part in 3 evaluation sessions (baseline, 3-month, and 6-month). All sessions included the primary disability outcome, the Dizziness Handicap Inventory (DHI) to create the DRD recovery trajectories using group-based multi-trajectory modeling analysis. Each independent variable included general patients' characteristics, premorbid conditions, function and symptoms questionnaires, and clinical physical measures; and were compared between the trajectories with logistic regression models.

RESULTS

Low DRD (LD) trajectory (n = 64, 79%), and a High DRD (HD) trajectory (n = 17, 21%) were identified. The Predicting and Preventing Postconcussive Problems in Pediatrics (5P) total score (Odds Ratio (OR):1.50, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.01-2.22), self-reported neck pain (OR:7.25, 95%CI: 1.24-42.36), and premorbid anxiety (OR:7.25, 95%CI: 1.24-42.36) were the strongest predictors of belonging to HD group.

CONCLUSIONS

Neck pain, premorbid anxiety, and the 5P score should be considered initially in clinical practice as to predict DRD at 3 and 6-month. Further research is needed to refine predictions and enhance personalized treatment strategies for pediatric concussion.

Group based trajectory modeling identifies distinct patterns of sympathetic hyperactivity following traumatic brain injury

Background

Paroxysmal Sympathetic Hyperactivity (PSH) occurs with high prevalence among critically ill Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) patients and is associated with worse outcomes. The PSH-Assessment Measure (PSH-AM) consists of a Clinical Features Scale (CFS) and a Diagnosis Likelihood Tool (DLT), intended to quantify the severity of sympathetically-mediated symptoms and likelihood that they are due to PSH, respectively, on a daily basis. Here, we aim to identify and explore the value of dynamic trends in the evolution of sympathetic hyperactivity following acute TBI using elements of the PSH-AM.

Methods

We performed an observational cohort study of 221 acute critically ill TBI patients for whom daily PSH-AM scores were calculated over the first 14 days of hospitalization. A principled group-based trajectory modeling approach using unsupervised K-means clustering was used to identify distinct patterns of CFS evolution within the cohort. We also evaluated the relationships between trajectory group membership and PSH diagnosis, as well as PSH DLT score, hospital discharge GCS, ICU and hospital length of stay, duration of mechanical ventilation, and mortality. Baseline clinical and demographic features predictive of trajectory group membership were analyzed using univariate screening and multivariate multinomial logistic regression.

Results

We identified four distinct trajectory groups. Trajectory group membership was significantly associated with clinical outcomes including PSH diagnosis and DLT score, ICU length of stay, and duration of mechanical ventilation. Baseline features independently predictive of trajectory group membership included age and post-resuscitation motor GCS.

Conclusions

This study adds to the sparse research characterizing the heterogeneous temporal trends of sympathetic nervous system activation during the acute phase following TBI. This may open avenues for early identification of at-risk patients to receive tailored interventions to limit secondary brain injury associated with autonomic dysfunction and thereby improve TBI patient outcomes.

Disease activity trajectories in juvenile dermatomyositis from childhood to adulthood

OBJECTIVES

To assess whether there are identifiable subgroups of disease activity trajectory in a population of JDM patients-followed throughout childhood and into adulthood-and determine factors that predict those trajectory groupings.

METHODS

This is a retrospective, longitudinal inception cohort of patients with idiopathic inflammatory myopathies, largely JDM. We sought to identify baseline factors that predict membership into different groups (latent classes) of disease activity trajectory.

RESULTS

A total of 172 patients (64% females), with median age at diagnosis of 7.7 years, were analysed. We studied 4725 visits (1471 patient-years). We identified three latent classes of longitudinal disease activity, as measured by the modified DAS (DASm), with distinct class trajectories predicted by DASm at baseline, and by the changes of DASm from either baseline to 3 months or baseline to 6 months (early response to therapy). In the analysis in which DASm at baseline and the changes of DASm from baseline to 6 months are included as predictors, Class 1 (10%) has persistently high disease activity, Class 2 (34%) is characterized by moderate disease activity and Class 3 (56%) is characterized by individuals with a high early disease activity but an apparently good response to treatment and long-term low disease activity.

CONCLUSION

High early disease activity, and treatment resistance in the first few months, predict a more chronic longitudinal course of JDM.

Longitudinal Vasoactive Inotrope Score Trajectories and Their Prognostic Significance in Critically Ill Sepsis Patients: A Retrospective Cohort Analysis

PURPOSE

Sepsis continues to be a critical issue in intensive care, characterized by significant morbidity and mortality. This study explores the association between Vasoactive Inotrope Score (VIS) trajectories and 28-day mortality in ICU patients with sepsis, employing VIS trajectories as a marker for assessing severity and guiding therapy.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective analysis of the MIMIC-IV database, which included sepsis patients admitted to the ICU between 2008 and 2019. VIS calculations were performed bi-hourly during the first 72 hours of ICU admission. Using latent growth mixture modeling, we identified distinct VIS trajectory patterns, and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were employed to evaluate their association with 28-day mortality.

FINDINGS

Among 6,802 sepsis patients who met the inclusion criteria, four distinct VIS trajectory patterns were identified: "Low-Decreasing" (52.1%), "Mild-Ascending" (13.2%), "Moderate-Decreasing" (23.0%), and "High-Stable" (11.6%). The 28-day survival analysis demonstrated that, compared to the "Low-Decreasing" group, the "Mild-Ascending" group had a hazard ratio (HR) for mortality of 2.55 (95% CI: 2.19-2.97, P < 0.001), the "Moderate-Decreasing" group had an HR of 1.20 (95% CI: 1.03-1.41, P = 0.021), and the "High-Stable" group presented the highest risk with an HR of 4.19 (95% CI: 3.43-5.12, P < 0.001).

IMPLICATIONS

This study offers significant insights into the prognostic value of VIS trajectories in sepsis patients. The identification of distinct trajectory patterns not only underscores the heterogeneity in sepsis but also emphasizes the importance of personalized management strategies. The findings underscore the potential of VIS trajectory monitoring in predicting 28-day outcomes and in guiding clinical decision-making in ICU settings.