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Burgess S, Zhou A. Genetic predictors of traits in elderly subjects: risk of survival bias and reverse causation. Eur Heart J 2024; 45:2155-2157. [PMID: 38804264 PMCID: PMC11212826 DOI: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehae295] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/29/2024] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Stephen Burgess
- MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, Robinson Way, Cambridge CB2 0SR, UK
- Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Ang Zhou
- MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, Robinson Way, Cambridge CB2 0SR, UK
- Australian Centre for Precision Health, Unit of Clinical and Health Sciences, University of South Australia, Adelaide, Australia
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2
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Jiang L, Sun YQ, Denos M, Brumpton BM, Chen Y, Malmo V, Sanderson E, Mai XM. Serum vitamin D, blood pressure and hypertension risk in the HUNT study using observational and Mendelian randomization approaches. Sci Rep 2024; 14:14312. [PMID: 38906907 PMCID: PMC11192928 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-64649-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2024] [Accepted: 06/11/2024] [Indexed: 06/23/2024] Open
Abstract
Limited studies have triangulated the relationship between serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] levels and systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP) or hypertension risk utilizing both observational and Mendelian randomization (MR) approaches. We employed data from the Norwegian Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT) to conduct cross-sectional (n = 5854) and prospective (n = 3592) analyses, as well as one-sample MR (n = 86,324). We also used largest publicly available data for two-sample MR. Our cross-sectional analyses showed a 25 nmol/L increase in 25(OH)D was associated with a 1.73 mmHg decrease in SBP (95% CI - 2.46 to - 1.01), a 0.91 mmHg decrease in DBP (95% CI - 1.35 to - 0.47) and 19% lower prevalence of hypertension (OR 0.81, 95% CI 0.74 to 0.90) after adjusting for important confounders. However, these associations disappeared in prospective analyses. One-sample and two-sample MR results further suggested no causal relationship between serum vitamin D levels and blood pressure or hypertension risk in the general population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lin Jiang
- Department of Public Health and Nursing, Faculty of Medicine and Health Science, Norwegian University of Science and Technology(NTNU), Postbox 8905, MTFS, N-7491, Trondheim, Norway.
- Clinic of Cardiology, St. Olavs Hospital, Trondheim, Norway.
| | - Yi-Qian Sun
- Department of Clinical and Molecular Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Health Science, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
- Department of Pathology, Clinic of Laboratory Medicine, St. Olavs Hospital, Trondheim University Hospital, Trondheim, Norway
- TkMidt-Center for Oral Health Services and Research, Mid-Norway, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Marion Denos
- Department of Public Health and Nursing, Faculty of Medicine and Health Science, Norwegian University of Science and Technology(NTNU), Postbox 8905, MTFS, N-7491, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Ben Michael Brumpton
- Clinic of Medicine, St. Olavs Hospital, Trondheim University Hospital, Trondheim, Norway
- K.G. Jebsen Centre for Genetic Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Nursing, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
- HUNT Research Centre, Department of Public Health and Nursing, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Levanger, Norway
| | - Yue Chen
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada
| | - Vegard Malmo
- Clinic of Cardiology, St. Olavs Hospital, Trondheim, Norway
- Department of Circulation and Medical Imaging, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Eleanor Sanderson
- MRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Xiao-Mei Mai
- Department of Public Health and Nursing, Faculty of Medicine and Health Science, Norwegian University of Science and Technology(NTNU), Postbox 8905, MTFS, N-7491, Trondheim, Norway
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Hamilton FW, Hughes DA, Spiller W, Tilling K, Davey Smith G. Non-linear Mendelian randomization: detection of biases using negative controls with a focus on BMI, Vitamin D and LDL cholesterol. Eur J Epidemiol 2024:10.1007/s10654-024-01113-9. [PMID: 38789826 DOI: 10.1007/s10654-024-01113-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/01/2023] [Accepted: 03/07/2024] [Indexed: 05/26/2024]
Abstract
Mendelian randomisation (MR) is an established technique in epidemiological investigation, using the principle of random allocation of genetic variants at conception to estimate the causal linear effect of an exposure on an outcome. Extensions to this technique include non-linear approaches that allow for differential effects of the exposure on the outcome depending on the level of the exposure. A widely used non-linear method is the residual approach, which estimates the causal effect within different strata of the non-genetically predicted exposure (i.e. the "residual" exposure). These "local" causal estimates are then used to make inferences about non-linear effects. Recent work has identified that this method can lead to estimates that are seriously biased, and a new method-the doubly-ranked method-has been introduced as a possibly more robust approach. In this paper, we perform negative control outcome analyses in the MR context. These are analyses with outcomes onto which the exposure should have no predicted causal effect. Using both methods we find clearly biased estimates in certain situations. We additionally examined a situation for which there are robust randomised controlled trial estimates of effects-that of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) reduction onto myocardial infarction, where randomised trials have provided strong evidence of the shape of the relationship. The doubly-ranked method did not identify the same shape as the trial data, and for LDL-C and other lipids they generated some highly implausible findings. Therefore, we suggest there should be extensive simulation and empirical methodological examination of performance of both methods for NLMR under different conditions before further use of these methods. In the interim, use of NLMR methods needs justification, and a number of sanity checks (such as analysis of negative and positive control outcomes, sensitivity analyses excluding removal of strata at the extremes of the distribution, examination of biological plausibility and triangulation of results) should be performed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fergus W Hamilton
- MRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, University of Bristol, Oakfield House, Oakfield Road, BS8 2PS, Bristol, UK.
- Infection Science, North Bristol NHS Trust, Bristol, UK.
| | - David A Hughes
- MRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, University of Bristol, Oakfield House, Oakfield Road, BS8 2PS, Bristol, UK
| | - Wes Spiller
- MRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, University of Bristol, Oakfield House, Oakfield Road, BS8 2PS, Bristol, UK
| | - Kate Tilling
- MRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, University of Bristol, Oakfield House, Oakfield Road, BS8 2PS, Bristol, UK
| | - George Davey Smith
- MRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit, University of Bristol, Oakfield House, Oakfield Road, BS8 2PS, Bristol, UK
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4
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Burgess S. Towards more reliable non-linear mendelian randomization investigations. Eur J Epidemiol 2024:10.1007/s10654-024-01121-9. [PMID: 38789825 DOI: 10.1007/s10654-024-01121-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/14/2024] [Accepted: 03/18/2024] [Indexed: 05/26/2024]
Affiliation(s)
- Stephen Burgess
- MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
- Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
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5
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Schooling CM, Yang G. Importance of method assumptions: Response to "Challenges in undertaking nonlinear Mendelian randomization". Obesity (Silver Spring) 2024. [PMID: 38773895 DOI: 10.1002/oby.24055] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/11/2024] [Accepted: 03/19/2024] [Indexed: 05/24/2024]
Affiliation(s)
- C Mary Schooling
- City University of New York, Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, New York, New York, USA
- School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Guoyi Yang
- School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
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Burgess S, Sun YQ, Zhou A, Buck C, Mason AM, Mai XM. Body mass index and all-cause mortality in HUNT and UK biobank studies: revised non-linear Mendelian randomisation analyses. BMJ Open 2024; 14:e081399. [PMID: 38749693 PMCID: PMC11097829 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2023-081399] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/27/2023] [Accepted: 05/07/2024] [Indexed: 05/18/2024] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To estimate the shape of the causal relationship between body mass index (BMI) and mortality risk in a Mendelian randomisation framework. DESIGN Mendelian randomisation analyses of two prospective population-based cohorts. SETTING Individuals of European ancestries living in Norway or the UK. PARTICIPANTS 56 150 participants from the Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT) in Norway and 366 385 participants from UK Biobank recruited by postal invitation. OUTCOMES All-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality (cardiovascular, cancer, non-cardiovascular non-cancer). RESULTS A previously published non-linear Mendelian randomisation analysis of these data using the residual stratification method suggested a J-shaped association between genetically predicted BMI and mortality outcomes with the lowest mortality risk at a BMI of around 25 kg/m2. However, the 'constant genetic effect' assumption required by this method is violated. The reanalysis of these data using the more reliable doubly-ranked stratification method provided some indication of a J-shaped relationship, but with much less certainty as there was less precision in estimates at the lower end of the BMI distribution. Evidence for a harmful effect of reducing BMI at low BMI levels was only present in some analyses, and where present, only below 20 kg/m2. A harmful effect of increasing BMI for all-cause mortality was evident above 25 kg/m2, for cardiovascular mortality above 24 kg/m2, for cancer mortality above 30 kg/m2 and for non-cardiovascular non-cancer mortality above 26 kg/m2. In UK Biobank, the association between genetically predicted BMI and mortality at high BMI levels was stronger in women than in men. CONCLUSION This research challenges findings from previous conventional observational epidemiology and Mendelian randomisation investigations that the lowest level of mortality risk is at a BMI level of around 25 kg/m2. Our results provide some evidence that reductions in BMI will increase mortality risk for a small proportion of the population, and clear evidence that increases in BMI will increase mortality risk for those with BMI above 25 kg/m2.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stephen Burgess
- MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
- Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
- Victor Phillip Dahdaleh Heart and Lung Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Yi-Qian Sun
- Department of Clinical and Molecular Medicine (IKOM), Norges teknisk-naturvitenskapelige universitet, Trondheim, Norway
- Department of Pathology, Clinic of Laboratory Medicine, St. Olavs Hospital, Trondheim University Hospital, Trondheim, Norway
- Center for Oral Health Services and Research Mid-Norway (TkMidt), Trondheim, Norway
| | - Ang Zhou
- MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
- Australian Centre for Precision Health, University of South Australia, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | | | - Amy M Mason
- Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
- Victor Phillip Dahdaleh Heart and Lung Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Xiao-Mei Mai
- Department of Public Health and Nursing, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
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Carr S, Bryazka D, McLaughlin SA, Zheng P, Bahadursingh S, Aravkin AY, Hay SI, Lawlor HR, Mullany EC, Murray CJL, Nicholson SI, Rehm J, Roth GA, Sorensen RJD, Lewington S, Gakidou E. A burden of proof study on alcohol consumption and ischemic heart disease. Nat Commun 2024; 15:4082. [PMID: 38744810 PMCID: PMC11094064 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-47632-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/14/2023] [Accepted: 04/08/2024] [Indexed: 05/16/2024] Open
Abstract
Cohort and case-control data have suggested an association between low to moderate alcohol consumption and decreased risk of ischemic heart disease (IHD), yet results from Mendelian randomization (MR) studies designed to reduce bias have shown either no or a harmful association. Here we conducted an updated systematic review and re-evaluated existing cohort, case-control, and MR data using the burden of proof meta-analytical framework. Cohort and case-control data show low to moderate alcohol consumption is associated with decreased IHD risk - specifically, intake is inversely related to IHD and myocardial infarction morbidity in both sexes and IHD mortality in males - while pooled MR data show no association, confirming that self-reported versus genetically predicted alcohol use data yield conflicting findings about the alcohol-IHD relationship. Our results highlight the need to advance MR methodologies and emulate randomized trials using large observational databases to obtain more definitive answers to this critical public health question.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sinclair Carr
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
| | - Dana Bryazka
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Susan A McLaughlin
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Peng Zheng
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Sarasvati Bahadursingh
- Clinical Trial Service Unit & Epidemiological Studies Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, Oxfordshire, UK
| | - Aleksandr Y Aravkin
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Simon I Hay
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Hilary R Lawlor
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Erin C Mullany
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Christopher J L Murray
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Sneha I Nicholson
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Jürgen Rehm
- Institute for Mental Health Policy Research, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Campbell Family Mental Health Research Institute, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Department of Psychiatry, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Faculty of Medicine, Institute of Medical Science (IMS), University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
- World Health Organization / Pan American Health Organization Collaborating Centre, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Center for Interdisciplinary Addiction Research (ZIS), Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf (UKE), Hamburg, Germany
- Institute of Clinical Psychology and Psychotherapy, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany
| | - Gregory A Roth
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Reed J D Sorensen
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Sarah Lewington
- Clinical Trial Service Unit & Epidemiological Studies Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, Oxfordshire, UK
| | - Emmanuela Gakidou
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
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Nielsen MB, Çolak Y, Benn M, Mason A, Burgess S, Nordestgaard BG. Plasma adiponectin levels and risk of heart failure, atrial fibrillation, aortic valve stenosis, and myocardial infarction: large-scale observational and Mendelian randomization evidence. Cardiovasc Res 2024; 120:95-107. [PMID: 37897683 PMCID: PMC10898934 DOI: 10.1093/cvr/cvad162] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/10/2023] [Revised: 09/07/2023] [Accepted: 09/23/2023] [Indexed: 10/30/2023] Open
Abstract
AIMS Adiponectin may play an important protective role in heart failure and associated cardiovascular diseases. We hypothesized that plasma adiponectin is associated observationally and causally, genetically with risk of heart failure, atrial fibrillation, aortic valve stenosis, and myocardial infarction. METHODS AND RESULTS In the Copenhagen General Population Study, we examined 30 045 individuals with plasma adiponectin measurements observationally and 96 903 individuals genetically in one-sample Mendelian randomization analyses using five genetic variants explaining 3% of the variation in plasma adiponectin. In the HERMES, UK Biobank, The Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT), deCODE, the Michigan Genomics Initiative (MGI), DiscovEHR, and the AFGen consortia, we performed two-sample Mendelian randomization analyses in up to 1 030 836 individuals using 12 genetic variants explaining 14% of the variation in plasma adiponectin.In observational analyses modelled linearly, a 1 unit log-transformed higher plasma adiponectin was associated with a hazard ratio of 1.51 (95% confidence interval: 1.37-1.66) for heart failure, 1.63 (1.50-1.78) for atrial fibrillation, 1.21 (1.03-1.41) for aortic valve stenosis, and 1.03 (0.93-1.14) for myocardial infarction; levels above the median were also associated with an increased risk of myocardial infarction, and non-linear U-shaped associations were more apparent for heart failure, aortic valve stenosis, and myocardial infarction in less-adjusted models. Corresponding genetic, causal risk ratios were 0.92 (0.65-1.29), 0.87 (0.68-1.12), 1.55 (0.87-2.76), and 0.93 (0.67-1.30) in one-sample Mendelian randomization analyses, and no significant associations were seen for non-linear one-sample Mendelian randomization analyses; corresponding causal risk ratios were 0.99 (0.89-1.09), 1.00 (0.92-1.08), 1.01 (0.79-1.28), and 0.99 (0.86-1.13) in two-sample Mendelian randomization analyses, respectively. CONCLUSION Observationally, elevated plasma adiponectin was associated with an increased risk of heart failure, atrial fibrillation, aortic valve stenosis, and myocardial infarction. However, genetic evidence did not support causality for these associations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria Booth Nielsen
- Department of Clinical Biochemistry, Copenhagen University Hospital—Herlev and Gentofte, Borgmester Ib Juuls Vej 73, Entrance 7, 4. Floor, M3, DK-2730 Herlev, Copenhagen, Denmark
- The Copenhagen General Population Study, Copenhagen University Hospital—Herlev and Gentofte, Borgmester Ib Juuls Vej 73, Entrance 7, 4. Floor, M3, DK-2730 Herlev, Copenhagen, Denmark
- Department of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Blegdamsvej 3B, DK-2200 Copenhagen N, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Yunus Çolak
- The Copenhagen General Population Study, Copenhagen University Hospital—Herlev and Gentofte, Borgmester Ib Juuls Vej 73, Entrance 7, 4. Floor, M3, DK-2730 Herlev, Copenhagen, Denmark
- Department of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Blegdamsvej 3B, DK-2200 Copenhagen N, Copenhagen, Denmark
- Department of Respiratory Medicine, Copenhagen University Hospital—Herlev and Gentofte, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Marianne Benn
- The Copenhagen General Population Study, Copenhagen University Hospital—Herlev and Gentofte, Borgmester Ib Juuls Vej 73, Entrance 7, 4. Floor, M3, DK-2730 Herlev, Copenhagen, Denmark
- Department of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Blegdamsvej 3B, DK-2200 Copenhagen N, Copenhagen, Denmark
- Department of Clinical Biochemistry, Copenhagen University Hospital—Rigshospitalet, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Amy Mason
- Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
- British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
- Heart and Lung Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Stephen Burgess
- Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
- British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
- Heart and Lung Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Børge Grønne Nordestgaard
- Department of Clinical Biochemistry, Copenhagen University Hospital—Herlev and Gentofte, Borgmester Ib Juuls Vej 73, Entrance 7, 4. Floor, M3, DK-2730 Herlev, Copenhagen, Denmark
- The Copenhagen General Population Study, Copenhagen University Hospital—Herlev and Gentofte, Borgmester Ib Juuls Vej 73, Entrance 7, 4. Floor, M3, DK-2730 Herlev, Copenhagen, Denmark
- Department of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Blegdamsvej 3B, DK-2200 Copenhagen N, Copenhagen, Denmark
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Kassaw NA, Zhou A, Mulugeta A, Lee SH, Burgess S, Hyppönen E. Alcohol consumption and the risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality-a linear and nonlinear Mendelian randomization study. Int J Epidemiol 2024; 53:dyae046. [PMID: 38508868 PMCID: PMC10951973 DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyae046] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/07/2023] [Accepted: 03/05/2024] [Indexed: 03/22/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Many observational studies support light-to-moderate alcohol intake as potentially protective against premature death. We used a genetic approach to evaluate the linear and nonlinear relationships between alcohol consumption and mortality from different underlying causes. METHODS We used data from 278 093 white-British UK Biobank participants, aged 37-73 years at recruitment and with data on alcohol intake, genetic variants, and mortality. Habitual alcohol consumption was instrumented by 94 variants. Linear Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses were conducted using five complementary approaches, and nonlinear MR analyses by the doubly-ranked method. RESULTS There were 20 834 deaths during the follow-up (median 12.6 years). In conventional analysis, the association between alcohol consumption and mortality outcomes was 'J-shaped'. In contrast, MR analyses supported a positive linear association with premature mortality, with no evidence for curvature (Pnonlinearity ≥ 0.21 for all outcomes). The odds ratio [OR] for each standard unit increase in alcohol intake was 1.27 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.16-1.39) for all-cause mortality, 1.30 (95% CI 1.10-1.53) for cardiovascular disease, 1.20 (95% CI 1.08-1.33) for cancer, and 2.06 (95% CI 1.36-3.12) for digestive disease mortality. These results were consistent across pleiotropy-robust methods. There was no clear evidence for an association between alcohol consumption and mortality from respiratory diseases or COVID-19 (1.32, 95% CI 0.96-1.83 and 1.46, 95% CI 0.99-2.16, respectively; Pnonlinearity ≥ 0.21). CONCLUSION Higher levels of genetically predicted alcohol consumption had a strong linear association with an increased risk of premature mortality with no evidence for any protective benefit at modest intake levels.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nigussie Assefa Kassaw
- Australian Centre for Precision Health, University of South Australia, Adelaide, Australia
- Clinical & Health Sciences, University of South Australia, Adelaide, Australia
- School of Public Health, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
- South Australian Health and Medical Research Institute, Adelaide, Australia
| | - Ang Zhou
- Australian Centre for Precision Health, University of South Australia, Adelaide, Australia
- Clinical & Health Sciences, University of South Australia, Adelaide, Australia
- South Australian Health and Medical Research Institute, Adelaide, Australia
- Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Anwar Mulugeta
- Australian Centre for Precision Health, University of South Australia, Adelaide, Australia
- Clinical & Health Sciences, University of South Australia, Adelaide, Australia
- South Australian Health and Medical Research Institute, Adelaide, Australia
- Department of Pharmacology, College of Health Sciences, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - Sang Hong Lee
- Australian Centre for Precision Health, University of South Australia, Adelaide, Australia
- South Australian Health and Medical Research Institute, Adelaide, Australia
- Allied Health & Human Performance, University of South Australia, Adelaide, Australia
| | - Stephen Burgess
- Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
- British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Elina Hyppönen
- Australian Centre for Precision Health, University of South Australia, Adelaide, Australia
- Clinical & Health Sciences, University of South Australia, Adelaide, Australia
- South Australian Health and Medical Research Institute, Adelaide, Australia
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10
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Tian H, Tom BDM, Burgess S. A data-adaptive method for investigating effect heterogeneity with high-dimensional covariates in Mendelian randomization. BMC Med Res Methodol 2024; 24:34. [PMID: 38341532 PMCID: PMC10858611 DOI: 10.1186/s12874-024-02153-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/16/2023] [Accepted: 01/17/2024] [Indexed: 02/12/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Mendelian randomization is a popular method for causal inference with observational data that uses genetic variants as instrumental variables. Similarly to a randomized trial, a standard Mendelian randomization analysis estimates the population-averaged effect of an exposure on an outcome. Dividing the population into subgroups can reveal effect heterogeneity to inform who would most benefit from intervention on the exposure. However, as covariates are measured post-"randomization", naive stratification typically induces collider bias in stratum-specific estimates. METHOD We extend a previously proposed stratification method (the "doubly-ranked method") to form strata based on a single covariate, and introduce a data-adaptive random forest method to calculate stratum-specific estimates that are robust to collider bias based on a high-dimensional covariate set. We also propose measures based on the Q statistic to assess heterogeneity between stratum-specific estimates (to understand whether estimates are more variable than expected due to chance alone) and variable importance (to identify the key drivers of effect heterogeneity). RESULT We show that the effect of body mass index (BMI) on lung function is heterogeneous, depending most strongly on hip circumference and weight. While for most individuals, the predicted effect of increasing BMI on lung function is negative, it is positive for some individuals and strongly negative for others. CONCLUSION Our data-adaptive approach allows for the exploration of effect heterogeneity in the relationship between an exposure and an outcome within a Mendelian randomization framework. This can yield valuable insights into disease aetiology and help identify specific groups of individuals who would derive the greatest benefit from targeted interventions on the exposure.
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Affiliation(s)
- Haodong Tian
- MRC Biostatistics Unit, School of Clinical Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
| | - Brian D M Tom
- MRC Biostatistics Unit, School of Clinical Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Stephen Burgess
- MRC Biostatistics Unit, School of Clinical Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
- British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
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11
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Fang A, Zhao Y, Yang P, Zhang X, Giovannucci EL. Vitamin D and human health: evidence from Mendelian randomization studies. Eur J Epidemiol 2024:10.1007/s10654-023-01075-4. [PMID: 38214845 DOI: 10.1007/s10654-023-01075-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/11/2023] [Accepted: 10/30/2023] [Indexed: 01/13/2024]
Abstract
We summarized the current evidence on vitamin D and major health outcomes from Mendelian randomization (MR) studies. PubMed and Embase were searched for original MR studies on vitamin D in relation to any health outcome from inception to September 1, 2022. Nonlinear MR findings were excluded due to concerns about the validity of the statistical methods used. A meta-analysis was preformed to synthesize study-specific estimates after excluding overlapping samples, where applicable. The methodological quality of the included studies was evaluated according to the STROBE-MR checklist. A total of 133 MR publications were eligible for inclusion in the analyses. The causal association between vitamin D status and 275 individual outcomes was examined. Linear MR analyses showed genetically high 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) concentrations were associated with reduced risk of multiple sclerosis incidence and relapse, non-infectious uveitis and scleritis, psoriasis, femur fracture, leg fracture, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, anorexia nervosa, delirium, heart failure, ovarian cancer, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, dyslipidemia, and bacterial pneumonia, but increased risk of Behçet's disease, Graves' disease, kidney stone disease, fracture of radium/ulna, basal cell carcinoma, and overall cataracts. Stratified analyses showed that the inverse association between genetically predisposed 25(OH)D concentrations and multiple sclerosis risk was significant and consistent regardless of the genetic instruments GIs selected. However, the associations with most of the other outcomes were only pronounced when using genetic variants not limited to those in the vitamin D pathway as GIs. The methodological quality of the included MR studies was substantially heterogeneous. Current evidence from linear MR studies strongly supports a causal role of vitamin D in the development of multiple sclerosis. Suggestive support for a number of other health conditions could help prioritize conditions where vitamin D may be beneficial or harmful.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aiping Fang
- Department of Nutrition, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Food, Nutrition and Health, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China
- Department of Nutrition, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, 02115, USA
| | - Yue Zhao
- Department of Nutrition, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Food, Nutrition and Health, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Ping Yang
- School of Nursing, Peking University, Beijing, China
- School of Nursing, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Xuehong Zhang
- Department of Nutrition, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, 02115, USA
- Channing Division of Network Medicine, Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Edward L Giovannucci
- Department of Nutrition, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, 02115, USA.
- Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
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12
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Sofianopoulou E, Kaptoge SK, Afzal S, Jiang T, Gill D, Gundersen TE, Bolton TR, Allara E, Arnold MG, Mason AM, Chung R, Pennells LAM, Shi F, Sun L, Willeit P, Forouhi NG, Langenberg C, Sharp SJ, Panico S, Engström G, Melander O, Tong TYN, Perez-Cornago A, Norberg M, Johansson I, Katzke V, Srour B, Sánchez MJ, Redondo-Sánchez D, Olsen A, Dahm CC, Overvad K, Brustad M, Skeie G, Moreno-Iribas C, Onland-Moret NC, van der Schouw YT, Tsilidis KK, Heath AK, Agnoli C, Krogh V, de Boer IH, Kobylecki CJ, Çolak Y, Zittermann A, Sundström J, Welsh P, Weiderpass E, Aglago EK, Ferrari P, Clarke R, Boutron MC, Severi G, MacDonald C, Providencia R, Masala G, Zamora-Ros R, Boer J, Verschuren WMM, Cawthon P, Schierbeck LL, Cooper C, Schulze MB, Bergmann MM, Hannemann A, Kiechl S, Brenner H, van Schoor NM, Albertorio JR, Sacerdote C, Linneberg A, Kårhus LL, Huerta JM, Imaz L, Joergensen C, Ben-Shlomo Y, Lundqvist A, Gallacher J, Sattar N, Wood AM, Wareham NJ, Nordestgaard BG, Di Angelantonio E, Danesh J, Butterworth AS, Burgess S. Estimating dose-response relationships for vitamin D with coronary heart disease, stroke, and all-cause mortality: observational and Mendelian randomisation analyses. Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol 2024; 12:e2-e11. [PMID: 38048800 PMCID: PMC7615586 DOI: 10.1016/s2213-8587(23)00287-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/21/2023] [Revised: 09/05/2023] [Accepted: 09/27/2023] [Indexed: 12/06/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Randomised trials of vitamin D supplementation for cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality have generally reported null findings. However, generalisability of results to individuals with low vitamin D status is unclear. We aimed to characterise dose-response relationships between 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) concentrations and risk of coronary heart disease, stroke, and all-cause mortality in observational and Mendelian randomisation frameworks. METHODS Observational analyses were undertaken using data from 33 prospective studies comprising 500 962 individuals with no known history of coronary heart disease or stroke at baseline. Mendelian randomisation analyses were performed in four population-based cohort studies (UK Biobank, EPIC-CVD, and two Copenhagen population-based studies) comprising 386 406 middle-aged individuals of European ancestries, including 33 546 people who developed coronary heart disease, 18 166 people who had a stroke, and 27 885 people who died. Primary outcomes were coronary heart disease, defined as fatal ischaemic heart disease (International Classification of Diseases 10th revision code I20-I25) or non-fatal myocardial infarction (I21-I23); stroke, defined as any cerebrovascular disease (I60-I69); and all-cause mortality. FINDINGS Observational analyses suggested inverse associations between incident coronary heart disease, stroke, and all-cause mortality outcomes with 25(OH)D concentration at low 25(OH)D concentrations. In population-wide genetic analyses, there were no associations of genetically predicted 25(OH)D with coronary heart disease (odds ratio [OR] per 10 nmol/L higher genetically-predicted 25(OH)D concentration 0·98, 95% CI 0·95-1·01), stroke (1·01, [0·97-1·05]), or all-cause mortality (0·99, 0·95-1·02). Null findings were also observed in genetic analyses for cause-specific mortality outcomes, and in stratified genetic analyses for all outcomes at all observed levels of 25(OH)D concentrations. INTERPRETATION Stratified Mendelian randomisation analyses suggest a lack of causal relationship for 25(OH)D concentrations with both cardiovascular and mortality outcomes for individuals at all levels of 25(OH)D. Our findings suggest that substantial reductions in mortality and cardiovascular morbidity due to long-term low-dose vitamin D supplementation are unlikely even if targeted at individuals with low vitamin D status. FUNDING British Heart Foundation, Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health Research, Health Data Research UK, Cancer Research UK, and International Agency for Research on Cancer.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration/EPIC-CVD/Vitamin D Studies Collaboration
- BHF Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, UK
- Copenhagen General Population Study, Department of Clinical Biochemistry, Herlev and Gentofte Hospital, Denmark
- Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, Copenhagen University, Denmark
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
- Vitas Ltd, Oslo, Norway
- NIHR Blood and Transplant Research Unit in Donor Health and Genomics, University of Cambridge, UK
- BHF Centre of Research Excellence, School of Clinical Medicine, Addenbrooke’s Hospital, University of Cambridge, UK
- Department of Medical Statistics, Informatics and Health Economics, Medical University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
- Medical Research Council Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge, UK
- Berlin Institute of Health at Charité – Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany
- Dipartimento Di Medicina Clinica E Chirurgia, Federico II University, Italy
- Department of Clinical Sciences Malmö, Lund University, Sweden
- Department of Emergency and Internal Medicine, Skåne University Hospital, Malmö, Sweden
- Cancer Epidemiology Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, UK
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Sweden
- Department of Odontology, Umeå University, Sweden
- Department of Cancer Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany
- EPIC Granada, Escuela Andaluza de Salud Pública (EASP), Granada, Spain
- Instituto de Investigación Biosanitaria ibs.GRANADA, Granada, Spain
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
- Department of Preventive Medicine and Public Health. University of Granada. Granada, Spain
- Danish Cancer Society Research Center, Copenhagen, Denmark
- Department of Public Health, Aarhus University, Denmark
- Department of Community Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, UiT the Arctic University of Norway, Norway
- The Public Dental Health Service Competence Centre of Northern Norway (TkNN), Tromsø, Norway
- Epidemiology, Prevention and Promotion Health Service, Public Health Institute of Navarra, Spain
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Netherlands
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, UK
- School of Medicine, University of Ioannina, Greece
- Epidemiology and Prevention Unit, Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori di Milano, Italy
- Department of Medicine, University of Washington, USA
- Clinic for Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, Herz- und Diabeteszentrum Nordrhein-Westfalen, Bad Oeynhausen, Ruhr University Bochum, Germany
- Department of Medical Sciences, Uppsala University, Sweden
- BHF Glasgow Cardiovascular Research Centre, School of Cardiovascular and Metabolic Health, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, France
- Clinical Trial Service Unit and Epidemiological Studies Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, Oxford, UK
- Université Paris-Saclay, UVSQ, Univ. Paris-Sud, Inserm U1018, Équipe "Exposome et Hérédité", CESP, Gustave Roussy, France
- Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications "G. Parenti" (DISIA), University of Florence, Italy
- Institute of Health Informatics Research, University College London, London, UK
- Institute for Cancer Research, Prevention and Clinical Network – ISPRO, Italy
- Unit of Nutrition and Cancer, Cancer Epidemiology Research Program, Catalan Institute of Oncology, Bellvitge Biomedical Research Institute (IDIBELL), Barcelona, Spain
- Centre for Nutrition and Health, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM)
- Research Institute, California Pacific Medical Center, USA
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, USA
- Cardiology Department, Nordsjælland University Hospital, Hillerød, Denmark
- Medical Research Council Lifecourse Epidemiology Unit, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
- German Institute of Human Nutrition Potsdam-Rehbruecke, Nuthetal, Germany
- Institute of Nutritional Science, University of Potsdam, Germany
- Institute of Clinical Chemistry and Laboratory Medicine, DZHK (German Centre for Cardiovascular Research), Partner Site Greifswald, University Medicine Greifswald, Germany
- Department of Neurology, Medical University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
- VASCage, Research Centre on Vascular Ageing and Stroke, Innsbruck, Austria
- Division of Clinical Epidemiology and Aging Research, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany
- Division of Preventive Oncology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ) and National Center for Tumor Diseases (NCT), Heidelberg, Germany
- German Cancer Consortium (DKTK), German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany
- Network Aging Research, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany
- Department of Epidemiology and Data Science, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Netherlands
- Coalition to End Loneliness, USA
- Unit of Cancer Epidemiology, Città della Salute e della Scienza University-Hospital, Turin, Italy
- Center for Clinical Research and Prevention, Bispebjerg and Frederiksberg Hospital, The Capital Region, Denmark
- Department of Epidemiology, Murcia Regional Health Council, Instituto Murciano de Investigación Biosanitaria-Arrixaca, Murcia, Spain
- Public Health Division of Bizkaia, Ministry of Health of the Basque Government, Spain
- Biodonostia Health Research Institute, Donostia-San Sebastian, Spain
- Steno Diabetes Center, Copenhagen, Denmark
- Population Health Sciences, University of Bristol, UK
- Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, Helsinki, Finland
- Department of Psychiatry, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- Health Data Research UK Cambridge, Wellcome Genome Campus and University of Cambridge, UK
- The Alan Turing Institute, UK
- The Copenhagen City Heart Study, Frederiksberg Hospital, Copenhagen University Hospital
- Department of Human Genetics, Wellcome Sanger Institute, Hinxton, UK
- Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, UK
| | - Eleni Sofianopoulou
- BHF Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, UK
| | - Stephen K Kaptoge
- BHF Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, UK
| | - Shoaib Afzal
- Copenhagen General Population Study, Department of Clinical Biochemistry, Herlev and Gentofte Hospital, Denmark
- Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, Copenhagen University, Denmark
| | - Tao Jiang
- BHF Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, UK
| | - Dipender Gill
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | | | - Thomas R Bolton
- BHF Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, UK
- NIHR Blood and Transplant Research Unit in Donor Health and Genomics, University of Cambridge, UK
| | - Elias Allara
- BHF Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, UK
- NIHR Blood and Transplant Research Unit in Donor Health and Genomics, University of Cambridge, UK
| | - Matthew G Arnold
- BHF Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, UK
| | - Amy M Mason
- BHF Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, UK
| | - Ryan Chung
- BHF Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, UK
- BHF Centre of Research Excellence, School of Clinical Medicine, Addenbrooke’s Hospital, University of Cambridge, UK
| | - Lisa AM Pennells
- BHF Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, UK
| | - Fanchao Shi
- BHF Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, UK
| | - Luanluan Sun
- BHF Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, UK
| | - Peter Willeit
- BHF Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, UK
- Department of Medical Statistics, Informatics and Health Economics, Medical University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
| | - Nita G Forouhi
- Medical Research Council Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge, UK
| | - Claudia Langenberg
- Medical Research Council Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge, UK
- Berlin Institute of Health at Charité – Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Stephen J Sharp
- Medical Research Council Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge, UK
| | - Salvatore Panico
- Dipartimento Di Medicina Clinica E Chirurgia, Federico II University, Italy
| | - Gunnar Engström
- Department of Clinical Sciences Malmö, Lund University, Sweden
| | - Olle Melander
- Department of Clinical Sciences Malmö, Lund University, Sweden
- Department of Emergency and Internal Medicine, Skåne University Hospital, Malmö, Sweden
| | - Tammy YN Tong
- Cancer Epidemiology Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, UK
| | - Aurora Perez-Cornago
- Cancer Epidemiology Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, UK
| | - Margareta Norberg
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Sweden
| | | | - Verena Katzke
- Department of Cancer Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Bernard Srour
- Department of Cancer Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany
| | - María José Sánchez
- EPIC Granada, Escuela Andaluza de Salud Pública (EASP), Granada, Spain
- Instituto de Investigación Biosanitaria ibs.GRANADA, Granada, Spain
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
- Department of Preventive Medicine and Public Health. University of Granada. Granada, Spain
| | - Daniel Redondo-Sánchez
- EPIC Granada, Escuela Andaluza de Salud Pública (EASP), Granada, Spain
- Instituto de Investigación Biosanitaria ibs.GRANADA, Granada, Spain
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
| | - Anja Olsen
- Danish Cancer Society Research Center, Copenhagen, Denmark
- Department of Public Health, Aarhus University, Denmark
| | | | - Kim Overvad
- Department of Public Health, Aarhus University, Denmark
| | - Magritt Brustad
- Department of Community Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, UiT the Arctic University of Norway, Norway
- The Public Dental Health Service Competence Centre of Northern Norway (TkNN), Tromsø, Norway
| | - Guri Skeie
- Department of Community Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, UiT the Arctic University of Norway, Norway
| | - Conchi Moreno-Iribas
- The Public Dental Health Service Competence Centre of Northern Norway (TkNN), Tromsø, Norway
| | - N Charlotte Onland-Moret
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Netherlands
| | - Yvonne T van der Schouw
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Netherlands
| | - Konstantinos K Tsilidis
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, UK
- School of Medicine, University of Ioannina, Greece
| | - Alicia K Heath
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, UK
| | - Claudia Agnoli
- Epidemiology and Prevention Unit, Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori di Milano, Italy
| | - Vittorio Krogh
- Epidemiology and Prevention Unit, Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori di Milano, Italy
| | - Ian H de Boer
- Department of Medicine, University of Washington, USA
| | - Camilla Jannie Kobylecki
- Copenhagen General Population Study, Department of Clinical Biochemistry, Herlev and Gentofte Hospital, Denmark
| | - Yunus Çolak
- Copenhagen General Population Study, Department of Clinical Biochemistry, Herlev and Gentofte Hospital, Denmark
| | - Armin Zittermann
- Clinic for Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, Herz- und Diabeteszentrum Nordrhein-Westfalen, Bad Oeynhausen, Ruhr University Bochum, Germany
| | | | - Paul Welsh
- BHF Glasgow Cardiovascular Research Centre, School of Cardiovascular and Metabolic Health, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | | | | | | | - Robert Clarke
- Clinical Trial Service Unit and Epidemiological Studies Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, Oxford, UK
| | - Marie-Christine Boutron
- Université Paris-Saclay, UVSQ, Univ. Paris-Sud, Inserm U1018, Équipe "Exposome et Hérédité", CESP, Gustave Roussy, France
| | - Gianluca Severi
- Université Paris-Saclay, UVSQ, Univ. Paris-Sud, Inserm U1018, Équipe "Exposome et Hérédité", CESP, Gustave Roussy, France
- Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications "G. Parenti" (DISIA), University of Florence, Italy
| | - Conor MacDonald
- Université Paris-Saclay, UVSQ, Univ. Paris-Sud, Inserm U1018, Équipe "Exposome et Hérédité", CESP, Gustave Roussy, France
| | - Rui Providencia
- Institute of Health Informatics Research, University College London, London, UK
| | - Giovanna Masala
- Institute for Cancer Research, Prevention and Clinical Network – ISPRO, Italy
| | - Raul Zamora-Ros
- Unit of Nutrition and Cancer, Cancer Epidemiology Research Program, Catalan Institute of Oncology, Bellvitge Biomedical Research Institute (IDIBELL), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Jolanda Boer
- Centre for Nutrition and Health, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM)
| | - WM Monique Verschuren
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Netherlands
- Centre for Nutrition and Health, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM)
| | - Peggy Cawthon
- Research Institute, California Pacific Medical Center, USA
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, USA
| | | | - Cyrus Cooper
- Medical Research Council Lifecourse Epidemiology Unit, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - Matthias B Schulze
- German Institute of Human Nutrition Potsdam-Rehbruecke, Nuthetal, Germany
- Institute of Nutritional Science, University of Potsdam, Germany
| | - Manuela M Bergmann
- German Institute of Human Nutrition Potsdam-Rehbruecke, Nuthetal, Germany
| | - Anke Hannemann
- Institute of Clinical Chemistry and Laboratory Medicine, DZHK (German Centre for Cardiovascular Research), Partner Site Greifswald, University Medicine Greifswald, Germany
| | - Stefan Kiechl
- Department of Neurology, Medical University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
- VASCage, Research Centre on Vascular Ageing and Stroke, Innsbruck, Austria
| | - Hermann Brenner
- Division of Clinical Epidemiology and Aging Research, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany
- Division of Preventive Oncology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ) and National Center for Tumor Diseases (NCT), Heidelberg, Germany
- German Cancer Consortium (DKTK), German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany
- Network Aging Research, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Natasja M van Schoor
- Department of Epidemiology and Data Science, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Netherlands
| | | | - Carlotta Sacerdote
- Unit of Cancer Epidemiology, Città della Salute e della Scienza University-Hospital, Turin, Italy
| | - Allan Linneberg
- Center for Clinical Research and Prevention, Bispebjerg and Frederiksberg Hospital, The Capital Region, Denmark
| | - Line L Kårhus
- Center for Clinical Research and Prevention, Bispebjerg and Frederiksberg Hospital, The Capital Region, Denmark
| | - José María Huerta
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
- Department of Epidemiology, Murcia Regional Health Council, Instituto Murciano de Investigación Biosanitaria-Arrixaca, Murcia, Spain
| | - Liher Imaz
- Public Health Division of Bizkaia, Ministry of Health of the Basque Government, Spain
- Biodonostia Health Research Institute, Donostia-San Sebastian, Spain
| | | | | | | | - John Gallacher
- Department of Psychiatry, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Naveed Sattar
- BHF Glasgow Cardiovascular Research Centre, School of Cardiovascular and Metabolic Health, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Angela M Wood
- BHF Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, UK
- NIHR Blood and Transplant Research Unit in Donor Health and Genomics, University of Cambridge, UK
- BHF Centre of Research Excellence, School of Clinical Medicine, Addenbrooke’s Hospital, University of Cambridge, UK
- Health Data Research UK Cambridge, Wellcome Genome Campus and University of Cambridge, UK
- The Alan Turing Institute, UK
| | | | - Børge G Nordestgaard
- Copenhagen General Population Study, Department of Clinical Biochemistry, Herlev and Gentofte Hospital, Denmark
- Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, Copenhagen University, Denmark
- The Copenhagen City Heart Study, Frederiksberg Hospital, Copenhagen University Hospital
| | - Emanuele Di Angelantonio
- BHF Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, UK
- NIHR Blood and Transplant Research Unit in Donor Health and Genomics, University of Cambridge, UK
- BHF Centre of Research Excellence, School of Clinical Medicine, Addenbrooke’s Hospital, University of Cambridge, UK
- Health Data Research UK Cambridge, Wellcome Genome Campus and University of Cambridge, UK
| | - John Danesh
- BHF Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, UK
- NIHR Blood and Transplant Research Unit in Donor Health and Genomics, University of Cambridge, UK
- BHF Centre of Research Excellence, School of Clinical Medicine, Addenbrooke’s Hospital, University of Cambridge, UK
- Health Data Research UK Cambridge, Wellcome Genome Campus and University of Cambridge, UK
- Department of Human Genetics, Wellcome Sanger Institute, Hinxton, UK
| | - Adam S Butterworth
- BHF Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, UK
- NIHR Blood and Transplant Research Unit in Donor Health and Genomics, University of Cambridge, UK
- BHF Centre of Research Excellence, School of Clinical Medicine, Addenbrooke’s Hospital, University of Cambridge, UK
- Health Data Research UK Cambridge, Wellcome Genome Campus and University of Cambridge, UK
| | - Stephen Burgess
- BHF Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, UK
- BHF Centre of Research Excellence, School of Clinical Medicine, Addenbrooke’s Hospital, University of Cambridge, UK
- Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, UK
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Abstract
Importance Mendelian randomization (MR) is a statistical approach that has become increasingly popular in the field of cardiovascular disease research. It offers a way to infer potentially causal relationships between risk factors and outcomes using observational data, which is particularly important in cases where randomized clinical trials are not feasible or ethical. With the growing availability of large genetic data sets, MR has become a powerful and accessible tool for studying the risk factors for cardiovascular disease. Observations MR uses genetic variation associated with modifiable exposures or risk factors to mitigate biases that affect traditional observational study designs. The approach uses genetic variants that are randomly assigned at conception as proxies for exposure to a risk factor, mimicking a randomized clinical trial. By comparing the outcomes of individuals with different genetic variants, researchers may draw causal inferences about the effects of specific risk factors on cardiovascular disease, provided assumptions are met that address (1) the association between each genetic variant and risk factor and (2) the association of the genetic variants with confounders and (3) that the association between each genetic variant and the outcome only occurs through the risk factor. Like other observational designs, MR has limitations, which include weak instruments that are not strongly associated with the exposure of interest, linkage disequilibrium where genetic instruments influence the outcome via correlated rather than direct effects, overestimated genetic associations, and selection and survival biases. In addition, many genetic databases and MR studies primarily include populations genetically similar to European reference populations; improved diversity of participants in these databases and studies is critically needed. Conclusions and Relevance This review provides an overview of MR methodology, including assumptions, strengths, and limitations. Several important applications of MR in cardiovascular disease research are highlighted, including the identification of drug targets, evaluation of potential cardiovascular risk factors, as well as emerging methodology. Overall, while MR alone can never prove a causal relationship beyond reasonable doubt, MR offers a rigorous approach for investigating possible causal relationships in observational data and has the potential to transform our understanding of the etiology and treatment of cardiovascular disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael G Levin
- Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, Department of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia
- Corporal Michael J. Crescenz Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
| | - Stephen Burgess
- Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit, School of Clinical Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
- Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
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Luo J, Thomassen JQ, Nordestgaard BG, Tybjærg-Hansen A, Frikke-Schmidt R. Neutrophil counts and cardiovascular disease. Eur Heart J 2023; 44:4953-4964. [PMID: 37950632 PMCID: PMC10719495 DOI: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehad649] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/29/2022] [Revised: 08/15/2023] [Accepted: 09/13/2023] [Indexed: 11/13/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS Anti-inflammatory trials have shown considerable benefits for cardiovascular disease. High neutrophil counts, an easily accessible inflammation biomarker, are associated with atherosclerosis in experimental studies. This study aimed to investigate the associations between neutrophil counts and risk of nine cardiovascular endpoints using observational and genetic approaches. METHODS Observational studies were conducted in the Copenhagen General Population Study (n = 101 730). Genetic studies were firstly performed using one-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) with individual-level data from the UK Biobank (n = 365 913); secondly, two-sample MR analyses were performed using summary-level data from the Blood Cell Consortium (n = 563 085). Outcomes included ischaemic heart disease, myocardial infarction, peripheral arterial disease, ischaemic cerebrovascular disease, ischaemic stroke, vascular-related dementia, vascular dementia, heart failure, and atrial fibrillation. RESULTS Observational analyses showed associations between high neutrophil counts with high risks of all outcomes. In the UK Biobank, odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) per 1-SD higher genetically predicted neutrophil counts were 1.15 (1.08, 1.21) for ischaemic heart disease, 1.22 (1.12, 1.34) for myocardial infarction, and 1.19 (1.04, 1.36) for peripheral arterial disease; similar results were observed in men and women separately. In two-sample MR, corresponding estimates were 1.14 (1.05, 1.23) for ischaemic heart disease and 1.11 (1.02, 1.20) for myocardial infarction; multiple sensitivity analyses showed consistent results. No robust associations in two-sample MR analyses were found for other types of leucocytes. CONCLUSIONS Observational and genetically determined high neutrophil counts were associated with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, supporting that high blood neutrophil counts is a causal risk factor for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jiao Luo
- Department of Clinical Biochemistry, Copenhagen University Hospital-Rigshospitalet, Blegdamsvej 9, DK-2100 Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Jesper Qvist Thomassen
- Department of Clinical Biochemistry, Copenhagen University Hospital-Rigshospitalet, Blegdamsvej 9, DK-2100 Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Børge G Nordestgaard
- Department of Clinical Biochemistry, Copenhagen University Hospital-Herlev and Gentofte, Herlev, Denmark
- The Copenhagen General Population Study, Copenhagen University Hospital-Herlev and Gentofte, Herlev, Denmark
- Department of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Anne Tybjærg-Hansen
- Department of Clinical Biochemistry, Copenhagen University Hospital-Rigshospitalet, Blegdamsvej 9, DK-2100 Copenhagen, Denmark
- The Copenhagen General Population Study, Copenhagen University Hospital-Herlev and Gentofte, Herlev, Denmark
- Department of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Ruth Frikke-Schmidt
- Department of Clinical Biochemistry, Copenhagen University Hospital-Rigshospitalet, Blegdamsvej 9, DK-2100 Copenhagen, Denmark
- The Copenhagen General Population Study, Copenhagen University Hospital-Herlev and Gentofte, Herlev, Denmark
- Department of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
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15
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Burgess S. Violation of the Constant Genetic Effect Assumption Can Result in Biased Estimates for Non-Linear Mendelian Randomization. Hum Hered 2023; 88:79-90. [PMID: 37651993 PMCID: PMC10614256 DOI: 10.1159/000531659] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/12/2022] [Accepted: 06/12/2023] [Indexed: 09/02/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Non-linear Mendelian randomization is an extension of conventional Mendelian randomization that performs separate instrumental variable analyses in strata of the study population with different average levels of the exposure. The approach estimates a localized average causal effect function, representing the average causal effect of the exposure on the outcome at different levels of the exposure. The commonly used residual method for dividing the population into strata works under the assumption that the effect of the genetic instrument on the exposure is linear and constant in the study population. However, this assumption may not hold in practice. METHODS We use the recently developed doubly ranked method to re-analyse various datasets previously analysed using the residual method. In particular, we consider a genetic score for 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) used in a recent non-linear Mendelian randomization analysis to assess the potential effect of vitamin D supplementation on all-cause mortality. RESULTS The effect of the genetic score on 25(OH)D concentrations varies strongly, with a five-fold difference in the estimated genetic association with the exposure in the lowest and highest decile groups. Evidence for a protective causal effect of vitamin D supplementation on all-cause mortality in low vitamin D individuals is evident for the residual method but not for the doubly ranked method. We show that the constant genetic effect assumption is more reasonable for some exposures and less reasonable for others. If the doubly ranked method indicates that this assumption is violated, then estimates from both the residual and doubly ranked methods can be biased, although bias was smaller on average in the doubly ranked method. CONCLUSION Analysts wanting to perform non-linear Mendelian randomization should compare results from both the residual and doubly ranked methods, as well as consider transforming the exposure for the residual method to reduce heterogeneity in the genetic effect on the exposure.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stephen Burgess
- MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
- Department of Public Health and Primary Care, Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
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