Association Between Systolic and Diastolic Blood Pressure Variability and the Risk of End-Stage Renal Disease

Relationship between changes in late-life blood pressure and the risk of frailty and mortality among older population in China: a cohort study based on CLHLS

The evidence regarding the effects of blood pressure changes on older individuals remains inconclusive, and the impact of frailty throughout the life course is not known. We investigated the associations of different change patterns of blood pressure during 3-year intervals with frailty and mortality. Participants included 7335 persons from 2008 to 2014 of the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS). Change in blood pressure was calculated as the difference between follow-up and baseline. Frailty was evaluated using a 40-item frailty index. Mortality status was ascertained up to December 31, 2014. The mean age of participants was 82.6 ± 10.7 years. The optimal blood pressure level (SBP, 130-150 mmHg; DBP, 70-90 mmHg) was associated with the lowest risk of frailty while decreasing follow-up SBP and DBP were significantly correlated with frailty. Lower baseline blood pressure levels (SBP < 130 mmHg; DBP < 70 mmHg) were associated with decreased mortality risk when participants increased their blood pressure to optimal levels during follow-up SBP and DBP (0.78, 0.63-0.98), compared to maintaining a steady low SBP (< 130 mmHg) and DBP (< 70 mmHg). For those with DBP around 70-90 mmHg, decreasing follow-up DBP (< 70 mmHg) was associated with higher mortality (1.23, 1.07-1.42) compared to maintaining stable follow-up DBP (70-90 mmHg). These results remain significant after adjusting for frailty. Optimal blood pressure levels were associated with the lowest risk of frailty. The association between lower blood pressure and increased mortality risk persisted even after accounting for frailty. We used a nationally representative longitudinal cohort study by using 2008-2014 of the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity in China. Change in blood pressure was calculated as the difference between follow-up and baseline. We investigated the associations of different change patterns of blood pressure during 3-year intervals with frailty and mortality.

Association between Systolic Blood Pressure Variability and Incident Aortic Stenosis

Background: This study investigated the potential link between blood pressure variability (BPV) and the incidence of aortic stenosis (AS) using Korean National Health Insurance Service data from 2002 to 2019. Methods: We collected annual systolic blood pressure variability (SBPV) measurements consisting of three consecutive blood pressure readings each year over three years. The obtained SBPV data was divided into five quantiles, with the highest quintile representing a high fluctuation of blood pressure. Results: Analyzing 9,341,629 individuals with a mean age of 40.7 years, the study found 3981 new AS diagnoses during an average 8.66-year follow-up. Independent predictors for AS included higher blood pressure levels and elevated systolic blood pressure variability (SBPV). The hazard ratios (HR) for different SBPV quintiles compared to the reference (1st quintile) were as follows: 2nd quintile HR 1.09 (p = 0.18), 3rd quintile HR 1.13 (p = 0.04), 4th quintile HR 1.13 (p = 0.04), and 5th quintile HR 1.39 (p < 0.001). Conclusion: Our findings suggest that both hypertension and high fluctuations in SBP during consecutive visits are associated with an increased risk of incident AS. These results emphasize the importance of blood pressure management and stability in the prevention of AS.

The effect of metabolic factors on the association between hyperuricemia and chronic kidney disease: a retrospective cohort mediation analysis

BACKGROUND

Hyperuricemia, hyperglycemia, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and hyperhomocysteinemia are all established risk factors for chronic kidney disease (CKD), and their interplay could exacerbate CKD progression. This study aims to evaluate the potential mediation effects of hyperglycemia, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and hyperhomocysteinemia on the association between hyperuricemia (HUA) and chronic kidney disease (CKD).

METHODS

We collected electronic medical record data from 2055 participants who underwent physical examinations at the Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University. The data were utilized to investigate the mediating effect of various factors including systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), homocysteine (HCY), triglyceride (TG), total cholesterol (TC), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), blood glucose (Glu), and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) on the relationship between HUA and CKD.

RESULTS

Upon adjusting for confounding variables, mediation analysis indicated that only HCY acted as a mediator in the HUA-CKD relationship (p value < 0.05), exhibiting a statistically significant mediation effect of 7.04%. However, after adjustment for multiple testing, none of these variables were statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS

Considering the observed associations between hyperuricemia, hyperglycemia, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and CKD, none of the factors of interest remained statistically significant after adjusting for multiple testing as potential mediators of hyperuricemia on CKD.

Association between blood pressure variability and risk of kidney function decline in hypertensive patients without chronic kidney disease: a post hoc analysis of Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial study

BACKGROUND

Blood pressure variability (BPV) is a risk factor for poor kidney function independent of blood pressure (BP) in chronic kidney disease (CKD). Little is known about the association between kidney function decline and BPV in hypertensive patients without CKD.

METHODS

A post-hoc analysis of the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT) was performed. BPV was measured as standard deviation (SD) and average real variability (ARV). Cox proportional hazard models were employed to explore the relationship between BPV and incident CKD and albuminuria.

RESULTS

A total of 5700 patients were included, with a mean age of 66.4 years old. During a median of 3.29 years follow-up, 150 (2.6%) patients developed CKD and 222 (7.2%) patients developed albuminuria. Patients were divided into four groups according to the quartiles of BPV. Compared with SBPV Q1, the incidence of CKD was higher in SBPV Q2-Q4; hazard ratios and 95% confidence interval were 1.81 (1.07-3.04), 1.85 (1.10-3.12) and 1.90 (1.13-3.19), respectively. The association between incident CKD and albuminuria with DBPV was less significant than SBPV. Similar results were found when measuring BPV as ARV and SD. No interaction was detected in BP-lowering strategy and SBPV on incident CKD and albuminuria ( P  > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

This study found that BPV was a risk factor for incident CKD and albuminuria in patients without CKD, especially SBPV. Although intensive BP control increased the risk of CKD, the association between SBPV and kidney function decline did not differ between the two treatment groups.

REGISTRATION

URL: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ , Unique identifier: NCT01206062.

Real-World Impact of Blood Pressure Control in Patients With Apparent Treatment-Resistant or Difficult-to-Control Hypertension and Stages 3 and 4 Chronic Kidney Disease

BACKGROUND

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a common comorbidity in patients with apparent treatment-resistant hypertension (aTRH). We assessed clinical outcomes, healthcare resource utilization events, and costs in patients with aTRH or difficult-to-control hypertension and stage 3-4 CKD with uncontrolled vs. controlled BP.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study used linked IQVIA Ambulatory EMR-US and IQVIA PharMetrics Plus claims databases. Adult patients had claims for ≥3 antihypertensive medication classes within 30 days between 01/01/2015 and 06/30/2021, 2 office BP measures recorded 1-90 days apart, ≥1 claim with ICD-9/10-CM diagnosis codes for CKD 3/4, and ≥1 year of continuous enrollment. Baseline BP was defined as uncontrolled (≥130/80 mm Hg) or controlled (<130/80 mm Hg) BP. Outcomes included risk of major adverse cardiovascular events plus (MACE+; stroke, myocardial infarction, heart failure hospitalization), end-stage renal disease (ESRD), healthcare resource utilization events, and costs during follow-up.

RESULTS

Of 3,966 patients with stage 3-4 CKD using ≥3 antihypertensive medications, 2,479 had uncontrolled BP and 1,487 had controlled BP. After adjusting for baseline differences, patients with uncontrolled vs. controlled BP had a higher risk of MACE+ (HR [95% CI]: 1.18 [1.03-1.36]), ESRD (1.85 [1.44-2.39]), inpatient hospitalization (rate ratio [95% CI]: 1.35 [1.28-1.43]), and outpatient visits (1.12 [1.11-1.12]) and incurred higher total medical and pharmacy costs (mean difference [95% CI]: $10,055 [$6,741-$13,646] per patient per year).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with aTRH and stage 3-4 CKD and uncontrolled BP despite treatment with ≥3 antihypertensive classes had an increased risk of MACE+ and ESRD and incurred greater healthcare resource utilization and medical expenditures compared with patients taking ≥3 antihypertensive classes with controlled BP.

Diastolic and systolic blood pressure time in target range as a cardiovascular risk marker in patients with type 2 diabetes: A post hoc analysis of ACCORD BP trial

AIMS

We investigated the associations between time in target range (TTR) of blood pressure (BP) and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with diabetes.

METHODS

4651 participants from the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) BP trial were included in the present study. The diastolic BP target range was defined as 70 to 80 mm Hg, and the systolic as 120 to 140 mm Hg and 110 to 130 mm Hg for the standard and intensive therapy, respectively.

RESULTS

After adjusting for covariates, 1-SD increase of diastolic TTR was significantly associated with lower risks of primary outcome (HR 0.82, 95% CI: 0.74-0.91, P < 0.001; HR 0.86, 95% CI: 0.77-0.95, P = 0.0044, as well as nonfatal myocardial infarction (HR 0.79, 95% CI: 0.69-0.91, P < 0.001). Meanwhile, systolic TTR was significantly associated with various cardiovascular outcomes (P ≤ 0.016) in fully-adjusted models. The diastolic TTR sustained significance in myocardial infarction when systolic blood pressure average was higher than 120 mm Hg.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with diabetes, TTR of diastolic and systolic BP was independently associated with lower risks of major outcomes. The diastolic BP within the optimal target range was considerably important for reducing the risk of myocardial infarction, even when systolic BP was under stable control.

Cardiovascular variability, sociodemographics, and biomarkers of disease: the MIDUS study

Introduction: Like heart rate, blood pressure (BP) is not steady but varies over intervals as long as months to as short as consecutive cardiac cycles. This blood pressure variability (BPV) consists of regularly occurring oscillations as well as less well-organized changes and typically is computed as the standard deviation of multiple clinic visit-to-visit (VVV-BP) measures or from 24-h ambulatory BP recordings (ABPV). BP also varies on a beat-to-beat basis, quantified by methods that parse variation into discrete bins, e.g., low frequency (0.04-0.15 Hz, LF). However, beat-to-beat BPV requires continuous recordings that are not easily acquired. As a result, we know little about the relationship between LF-BPV and basic sociodemographic characteristics such as age, sex, and race and clinical conditions. Methods: We computed LF-BPV during an 11-min resting period in 2,118 participants in the Midlife in the US (MIDUS) study. Results: LF-BPV was negatively associated with age, greater in men than women, and unrelated to race or socioeconomic status. It was greater in participants with hypertension but unrelated to hyperlipidemia, hypertriglyceridemia, diabetes, elevated CRP, or obesity. LF-diastolic BPV (DBPV), but not-systolic BPV (SBPV), was negatively correlated with IL-6 and s-ICAM and positively correlated with urinary epinephrine and cortisol. Finally, LF-DBPV was negatively associated with mortality, an effect was rendered nonsignificant by adjustment by age but not other sociodemographic characteristics. Discussion: These findings, the first from a large, national sample, suggest that LF-BPV differs significantly from VVV-BP and ABPV. Confirming its relationship to sociodemographic risk factors and clinical outcomes requires further study with large and representative samples.

Association of uncontrolled blood pressure in apparent treatment-resistant hypertension with increased risk of major adverse cardiovascular events plus

Patients with apparent treatment-resistant hypertension (aTRH) are at increased risk of end-organ damage and cardiovascular events. Little is known about the effects of blood pressure (BP) control in this population. Using a national claims database integrated with electronic medical records, the authors evaluated the relationships between uncontrolled BP (UBP; ≥130/80 mmHg) or controlled BP (CBP; <130/80 mmHg) and risk of major adverse cardiovascular events plus (MACE+; stroke, myocardial infarction, heart failure requiring hospitalization) and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in adult patients with aTRH (taking ≥3 antihypertensive medication classes concurrently within 30 days between January 1, 2015 and June 30, 2021). MACE+ components were also evaluated separately. Multivariable regression models were used to adjust for baseline differences in demographic and clinical characteristics, and sensitivity analyses using CBP <140/90 mmHg were conducted. Patients with UBP (n = 22 333) were younger and had fewer comorbidities at baseline than those with CBP (n = 11 427). In the primary analysis, which adjusted for these baseline differences, UBP versus CBP patients were at an 8% increased risk of MACE+ (driven by a 31% increased risk of stroke) and a 53% increased risk of ESRD after 2.7 years of follow-up. Greater MACE+ (22%) and ESRD (98%) risk increases with UBP versus CBP were seen in the sensitivity analysis. These real-world data showed an association between suboptimal BP control in patients with aTRH and higher incidence of MACE+ and ESRD linked with UBP despite the use of multidrug regimens. Thus, there remains a need for improved aTRH management.

Blood Pressure Variability in Clinical Practice: Past, Present and the Future

Recent advances in wearable technology through convenient and cuffless systems will enable continuous, noninvasive monitoring of blood pressure (BP), heart rate, and heart rhythm on both longitudinal 24-hour measurement scales and high-frequency beat-to-beat BP variability and synchronous heart rate variability and changes in underlying heart rhythm. Clinically, BP variability is classified into 4 main types on the basis of the duration of monitoring time: very-short-term (beat to beat), short-term (within 24 hours), medium-term (within days), and long-term (over months and years). BP variability is a strong risk factor for cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, cognitive decline, and mental illness. The diagnostic and therapeutic value of measuring and controlling BP variability may offer critical targets in addition to lowering mean BP in hypertensive populations.

Blood Pressure Variability and the Progression of Chronic Kidney Disease: a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Blood pressure variability (BPV) is a risk factor for poor prognosis including cardiovascular events, chronic kidney disease, and mortality, independent of elevated BP.

METHODS

We searched PubMed/Medline, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) from inception to November 23, 2022. Cohort studies reporting the association between BPV and chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression were selected. Hazard ratios were pooled using a random-effects model. Meta-regression, subgroup analyses, and sensitivity analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

A total of 23 studies were included in this systematic review and meta-analysis. Increased BPV was associated with progression of CKD (HR: 1.21, 95% CI: 1.09-1.33) and incidence of ESRD (HR: 1.08, 95% CI: 1.08-1.30). Among the different BPV metrics, high variation independent of mean (VIM), coefficient of variation (CV), standard deviation (SD), and average real variability (ARV) were indicated as predictors of CKD progression.

DISCUSSION

Increased BPV was associated with CKD progression.

Short-term Blood Pressure Variability and Incident CKD in Patients With Hypertension: Findings From the Cardiovascular and Metabolic Disease Etiology Research Center-High Risk (CMERC-HI) Study

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE

The association between short-term blood pressure variability (BPV) and kidney outcomes is poorly understood. This study evaluated the association between short-term BPV and kidney disease outcomes in people with hypertension.

STUDY DESIGN

Prospective observational cohort study.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

1,173 hypertensive participants in the Cardiovascular and Metabolic Disease Etiology Research Center-High Risk (2013-2018) Study with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥60mL/min/1.73m².

EXPOSURE

Short-term BPV assessed by average real variability (ARV).

OUTCOME

Composite kidney disease outcome (30% decline in eGFR from baseline, new occurrence of eGFR <60mL/min/1.73m², or onset of UACR >300mg/g).

ANALYTICAL APPROACH

Multivariable Cox regression analyses to evaluate the association between systolic and diastolic BP ARV (SBP-ARV and DBP-ARV) and outcomes.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 5.4 [4.1-6.5] years, 271 events of the composite kidney disease outcome occurred (46.5 per 1,000 person-years). Multivariable Cox analysis revealed that the highest SBP-ARV and DBP-ARV tertiles were associated with a higher risk of the composite kidney disease outcome than the lowest tertiles, independent of the 24-hour SBP or DBP levels (HR, 1.64 [95% CI, 1.16-2.33], and 1.60 [95% CI, 1.15-2.24] for SBP-ARV and DBP-ARV, respectively). These associations were consistent when SBP-ARV and DBP-ARV were treated as continuous variables (HR per 1.0-unit greater SBP-ARV, 1.03 [95% CI, 1.01-1.06]; HR per 1.0-unit greater DBP-ARV, 1.04 [95% CI, 1.01-1.08]). These associations were consistent, irrespective of subgroups (age, sex, 24-hour SBP or DBP, and moderate albuminuria). However, other measures of short-term BPV including SD, coefficient of variation, and dipping patterns were not associated with the composite kidney disease outcome.

LIMITATIONS

Observational study design, the use of single measurement of 24-hour BP, lack of information on changes in antihypertensive medication during the follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

Short-term BPV is associated with the development of a composite kidney disease outcome in hypertensive patients.

Visit-to-visit blood pressure variability and mortality and cardiovascular outcomes after acute myocardial infarction

The relationship between visit-to-visit blood pressure variability (BPV) and cardiovascular outcomes remains unclear. Our study assessed the prognostic implications of visit-to-visit BPV in patients after acute myocardial infarction (AMI). The present study enrolled 7,375 patients who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention for AMI and at least five measurements of blood pressure after hospital discharge. Visit-to-visit BPV was estimated as variability independent of mean. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality. The secondary endpoints were major cardiovascular events (the composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, and ischemic stroke) and hospitalization for heart failure. During a median follow-up of 5.8 years, adjusted risks of all-cause mortality, major cardiovascular events, and hospitalization for heart failure continuously increased as systolic BPV and diastolic BPV increased. Patients in the highest quartile of systolic BPV (versus lowest) had increased risk of all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.51 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.23-1.85]), major cardiovascular events (aHR 1.31 [95% CI 1.1-1.55]), and hospitalization for heart failure (aHR 2.15 [95% CI 1.49-3.1]). Patients in the highest quartile of diastolic BPV was also associated with all-cause mortality (aHR 1.39 [95% CI 1.14-1.7]), major cardiovascular events (aHR 1.29 [95% CI 1.08-1.53]), and hospitalization for heart failure (aHR 2.01[95% CI 1.4-2.87]). Both systolic and diastolic BPV improved the predictive ability of the GRACE (Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events) risk score for both all-cause mortality and major cardiovascular events. Higher visit-to-visit BPV was associated with increased risks of mortality and cardiovascular events in patients after AMI.

Effects of Blood Pressure According to Age on End-Stage Renal Disease Development in Patients With Diabetes: A Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study

Background:

Recent hypertension guidelines have recommended lower blood pressure (BP) targets in high-risk patients. However, there are no specific guidelines based on age or systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP, respectively). We aimed to assess the effects of age-related BP on development of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in patients with diabetes.

Methods:

A total of 2 563 870 patients with diabetes aged >20 years were selected from the Korean National Health Screening Program from 2009 to 2012 and followed up until the end of 2019. Participants were categorized into age and BP groups, and the hazard ratios for ESRD were calculated.

Results:

During a median follow-up of 7.15 years, the incidence rates of ESRD increased with increasing SBP and DBP. The hazard ratio for ESRD was the highest in patients younger than 40 years of age with DBP≥100 mm Hg. The effect of SBP and DBP on ESRD development was attenuated with age (interaction P was <0.0001 for age and SBP, and 0.0022 for age and DBP). The subgroup analysis for sex, antihypertension medication, and history of chronic kidney disease showed higher hazard ratios for ESRD among males, younger than 40 years, not taking antihypertension medications and chronic kidney disease compared to those among females, older than 40 years, antihypertension medication, and nonchronic kidney disease groups.

Conclusions:

Higher SBP and DBP increase the risk of developing ESRD in patients with diabetes, and in particular, younger individuals face greater risk. Therefore, intensive BP management is warranted in younger patients to prevent ESRD.

Effect of patient gender on short-term blood pressure variability in hemodialysis patients

Increased blood pressure variability (BPV) is strongly associated with cardiovascular events in end-stage kidney disease patients. Male hemodialysis patients present higher cardiovascular risk compared with females. The aim of this study is to investigate sex differences in short-term BPV in hemodialysis patients. 129 male and 91 female hemodialysis patients that underwent 48-h ABPM were included in this analysis. Standard deviation (SD), weighted SD (wSD), coefficient of variation (CV), and average real variability (ARV) of SBP and DBP were calculated with validated formulas. Age, dialysis vintage and history of major comorbidities did not differ between men and women. 48-h SBP/DBP (137.2 ± 17.4/81.9 ± 12.1 mmHg vs 132.2 ± 19.2/75.9 ± 11.7 mmHg, p = 0.045/<0.001) was significantly higher in men than women. During the 48-h period, all systolic BPV indices were similar between men and women (48-h SBP-ARV: 12.0 ± 2.9 vs 12.1 ± 3.2 mmHg, p = 0.683); 48-h DBP-SD, DBP-wSD and DBP-ARV (9.1 ± 1.6 vs 8.4 ± 1.8 mmHg, p = 0.005) were higher in men. In conclusion, short-term diastolic BPV indices are higher in male than female hemodialysis patients. Increased BPV may impact on the higher incidence of cardiovascular events observed in male hemodialysis patients.

Day-to-day blood pressure variability predicts poor outcomes following percutaneous coronary intervention: A retrospective study

BACKGROUND

For patients with cardiovascular disease, blood pressure variability (BPV), distinct from hypertension, is an important determinant of adverse cardiac events. Whether pre-operative BPV adversely affects outcomes after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is to this point unclear.

AIM

To investigate the relationship between blood pressure variability and outcomes for patients post-PCI.

METHODS

Patients undergoing PCI in a single state in 2017 were studied (n = 647). Systolic and diastolic BPV, defined as both the largest change and standard deviation for the 3-60 mo prior to PCI was calculated and patients with more than ten blood pressure measurements in that time were included for analysis (n = 471). Adverse outcomes were identified up to a year following the procedure, including major adverse cardiac events (MACE), myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular accident, death, and all-cause hospitalization.

RESULTS

Visit-to-visit systolic BPV, as measured by both standard deviation and largest change, was higher in patients who had myocardial infarction, were readmitted, or died within one year following PCI. Systolic BPV, as measured by largest change or standard deviation, was higher in patients who had MACE, or readmissions (P < 0.05). Diastolic BPV, as measured by largest change, was higher in patients with MACE and readmissions (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

As BPV is easily measured and captured in the electronic medical record, these findings describe a novel method of identifying at-risk patients who undergo PCI. Aggressive risk modification for patients with elevated BPV and known coronary artery disease is indicated.

Blood Pressure Variability and the Risk of Fracture: A Nationwide Cohort Study

CONTEXT

Although blood pressure variability (BPV) is associated with various health outcomes, only 1 study suggested that BPV is correlated with hip fractures. As cardiovascular disease and fractures share similar pathophysiology, there might be a link between BPV and fractures.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association between BPV and the incident fractures.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Population-based, using the Korean National Health Insurance System database.

PATIENTS OR OTHER PARTICIPANTS

A total of 3 256 070 participants aged ≥50 who participated in ≥3 health examinations within the previous 5 years, including the index year (2009-2010), were included. Outcome data were obtained through the end of 2016.

EXPOSURE

BPV was calculated using variability independent of the mean. High variability was defined as the highest quartile of variability.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Newly diagnosed fractures.

RESULTS

During the median follow-up of 7.0 years, there were 337 045 cases of any fracture (10.4%). After adjusting for age, sex, income, lifestyle factors, and comorbidities, a higher risk of fracture was observed with higher quartiles of BPV than the lowest quartile group: the adjusted hazard ratios (95% CIs) for incident any fracture were 1.07 (1.06-1.08) in the higher quartile of systolic BPV, 1.06 (1.05-1.07) in that of diastolic BPV, and 1.07 (1.06-1.08) in that of both systolic and diastolic BPV. Consistent results were noted for vertebral fractures and hip fractures, as well as in various subgroup analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

A positive association was noted between higher BPV and fracture incidence. BPV is an independent predictor for developing fracture.

Long-Term Blood Pressure Variability and Kidney Function in Participants of the ASPREE Trial

BACKGROUND

Whether long-term blood pressure variability (BPV) predicts kidney function decline in generally healthy older adults is unknown. We investigated this association in ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) trial participants.

METHODS

Between 2010 and 2014, Australian and US individuals aged ≥70 years (≥65 if US minority) were recruited and followed with annual study visits for a median of 4.7 years. Time-to-event analyses and linear mixed effects models were used to examine associations between incident chronic kidney disease (CKD), and trajectories of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and log albumin-creatinine ratio (log ACR) with systolic BPV as a continuous measure, and, by tertile of SD of systolic blood pressure (BP). BPV was estimated using systolic BP measures from baseline through the second annual visit, and kidney outcomes were assessed following this period.

RESULTS

Incident CKD occurred in 1,829 of 6,759 participants (27.2%), and more commonly in BPV tertiles 2 (27.4%) and 3 (28.3%) than tertile 1 (25.5%); however, the risk was not significantly increased after covariate adjustment (tertile 3 hazard ratio = 1.02; 95% confidence interval: 0.91-1.14). Analysis of eGFR (n = 16,193) and log ACR trajectories (n = 15,213) showed individuals in the highest BPV tertile having the lowest eGFR and highest log ACR, cross-sectionally. However, the trajectories of eGFR and log ACR did not differ across BPV tertiles.

CONCLUSIONS

CKD and markers of reduced kidney function occur more commonly in individuals with higher BPV; however, BPV does not influence trajectory of decline in kidney function over time in older adults who are in generally good health.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

Trial Number NCT01038583 and ISRCTN83772183.

Direct Determination rather than Oscillometric Estimation of Systolic Blood Pressure in Patients with Severe Chronic Kidney Disease

INTRODUCTION

Although arterial hypertension is a major concern in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD), obtaining accurate systolic blood pressure (SBP) measurement is challenging in this population for whom automatic oscillometric devices may yield erroneous results.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study was conducted in 89 patients with stages 4, 5, and 5D CKD, for whom we compared SBP values obtained by the recently described systolic foot-to-apex time interval (SFATI) technique which provides direct SBP determination, the standard technique (Korotkoff sounds), and oscillometry. We investigated the effects of age, sex, diabetes, CKD stage, and pulse pressure to explain measurement errors defined as biases or misclassification relative to the SBP thresholds of 110-130-mm Hg.

RESULTS

All 3 techniques showed satisfactory reproducibility for SBP measurement (CCC > 0.84 and >0.91, respectively, in dialyzed and nondialyzed patients). The mean ± SD from SBP as determined via Korotkoff sounds was 1.7 ± 4.6 mm Hg for SFATI (CCC = 0.98) and 5.9 ± 9.3 mm Hg for oscillometry (CCC = 0.88). Referring to the 110-130-mm Hg SBP range outside which treatment prescription or adaptation is recommended for CKD patients, SFATI underestimated SBP in 3 patients and overestimated it in 1, whereas oscillometry underestimated SBP in 12 patients and overestimated it in 3. Higher pulse pressure was the main explanatory factor for measurement and classification errors.

DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION

SFATI provides accurate SBP measurements in patients with severe CKD and paves the way for the standardization of automated noninvasive blood pressure measurement devices. Before prescribing or adjusting antihypertensive therapy, physicians should be aware of the risk of misclassification when using oscillometry.

Association between Variability of Metabolic Risk Factors and Cardiometabolic Outcomes

Despite strenuous efforts to reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk by improving cardiometabolic risk factors, such as glucose and cholesterol levels, and blood pressure, there is still residual risk even in patients reaching treatment targets. Recently, researchers have begun to focus on the variability of metabolic variables to remove residual risks. Several clinical trials and cohort studies have reported a relationship between the variability of metabolic parameters and CVDs. Herein, we review the literature regarding the effect of metabolic factor variability and CVD risk, and describe possible mechanisms and potential treatment perspectives for reducing cardiometabolic risk factor variability.

Kidney Recovery in Patients With Acute Kidney Injury Treated in Outpatient Hemodialysis or Rehabilitation Facilities

Rationale & Objective

Since January 2017, patients with acute kidney injury requiring dialysis (AKI-D) can be discharged to outpatient dialysis centers for continued hemodialysis (HD) support. We aimed to examine the rate of kidney recovery, time to recovery, and hospitalization-related clinical parameters associated with kidney recovery in patients with AKI-D.

Study Design

Single-center prospective cohort study.

Setting & Participants

111 adult patients who were admitted to the University of Kentucky Hospital, experienced AKI-D, and were discharged with need of outpatient HD.

Exposure

Hospitalization-related clinical parameters were evaluated.

Outcome

Kidney recovery as a composite of being alive and no longer requiring HD or other form of kidney replacement therapy.

Analytical Approach

Discrete-time survival analysis and logistic regression were used to determine adjusted probabilities of kidney recovery at prespecified time points and to evaluate clinical parameters associated with recovery.

Results

45 (41%) patients recovered kidney function, 25 (55.5%) within the first 30 days following discharge, 16 (35.5%) within 30 to 60 days, and 4 (9%) within 60 to 90 days. Adjusted probabilities of recovery were 36.7%, 27.4%, and 6.3%, respectively. Of the remaining patients, 49 (44%) developed kidney failure requiring chronic kidney replacement therapy and 17 (15%) died or went to hospice. Patients who did not recover kidney function were older, had more comorbid conditions, had lower estimated glomerular filtration rates at baseline, and received more blood transfusions during hospitalization when compared with those who recovered kidney function.

Limitations

Selection bias given that patients included in the study were all eligible for AKI management with outpatient HD as part of Medicare/Medicaid services.

Conclusions

At least one-third of AKI-D survivors discharged from an acute care hospital dependent on HD recovered kidney function within the first 90 days of discharge, more commonly in the first 30 days postdischarge. Future studies should elucidate clinical parameters that can inform risk classification and interventions to promote kidney recovery in this vulnerable and growing population.

One-Year Change in Diastolic Blood Pressure and Aortic Disease-Related Mortality in a Japanese General Population Aged 50-75 Years

BACKGROUND

Aortic diseases (ADs), including aortic dissection, aortic aneurysm, and aortic rupture, are fatal diseases with extremely high mortality rates. Hypertension has been reported to be associated with AD development; however, it remains unclear whether a 1-year change in diastolic blood pressure (DBP) is a risk factor for AD-related mortality in the general population.Methods and Results:This study used a nationwide database of 235,076 individuals (aged 50-75 years) who participated in the annual "Specific Health Check and Guidance in Japan" for 2 consecutive years between 2008 and 2010. There were 55 AD-related deaths during the follow-up period of 1,770 days. All subjects were divided into 4 groups based on the baseline DBP and change in DBP at 1 year: persistent high DBP, increasing DBP, decreasing DBP, and normal DBP. Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated that the persistent high DBP group had the greatest risk among the 4 groups. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analysis demonstrated that both DBP and 1-year change in DBP were significantly associated with AD-related deaths. The prediction capacity was significantly improved by the addition of 1-year change in DBP to confounding risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated for the first time that a 1-year change in DBP was associated with AD-related deaths in the general population. Monitoring changes in DBP are of critical importance in the primary prevention of AD-related deaths in apparently healthy subjects aged 50-75 years.

The Prognostic Significance of Body Mass Index and Metabolic Parameter Variabilities in Predialysis CKD: A Nationwide Observational Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

The association between variabilities in body mass index (BMI) or metabolic parameters and prognosis of patients with CKD has rarely been studied.

METHODS

In this retrospective observational study on the basis of South Korea's national health screening database, we identified individuals who received ≥3 health screenings, including those with persistent predialysis CKD (eGFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m² or dipstick albuminuria ≥1). The study exposure was variability in BMI or metabolic parameters until baseline assessment, calculated as the variation independent of the mean and stratified into quartiles (with Q4 the highest quartile and Q1 the lowest). We used Cox regression adjusted for various clinical characteristics to analyze risks of all-cause mortality and incident myocardial infarction, stroke, and KRT.

RESULTS

The study included 84,636 patients with predialysis CKD. Comparing Q4 versus Q1, higher BMI variability was significantly associated with higher risks of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.66; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.53 to 1.81), P [for trend] <0.001), KRT (HR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.09 to 1.33; P<0.001), myocardial infarction (HR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.05 to 1.36, P=0.003), and stroke (HR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.07 to 1.33, P=0.01). The results were similar in the subgroups divided according to positive or negative trends in BMI during the exposure assessment period. Variabilities in certain metabolic syndrome components (e.g., fasting blood glucose) also were significantly associated with prognosis of patients with predialysis CKD. Those with a higher number of metabolic syndrome components with high variability had a worse prognosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher variabilities in BMI and certain metabolic syndrome components are significantly associated with a worse prognosis in patients with predialysis CKD.

Cumulative hypertension burden and risk of end-stage renal disease

Hypertension is the leading risk factor for end-stage renal disease (ESRD). However, the association between sustained exposure to increased blood pressure (BP) and ESRD is not well established. This study investigated whether the cumulative hypertension burden is a substantial risk factor for ESRD. The incidence of ESRD among 2,144,801 participants identified from the Korean National Health Insurance Service database who had documented BP assessment data in their annual health check-up data from between 2006 and 2010, was determined. Over a median follow-up of 7.2 years, ESRD was identified in 1758 participants. Hypertension burden was defined as the cumulative exposure to hypertension (systolic BP ≥ 140 mmHg or diastolic BP ≥ 90 mmHg) during four consecutive follow-up periods and ranged from 0 to 4. The hypertension burden was as follows: 0 (n = 1,164,488), 77.6%; 1 (n = 292,377), 13.6%; 2 (n = 114,397), 5.3%; 3 (n = 52,671), 2.5%; and 4 (n = 20,886), 1.0%. Compared to the hypertension burden of 0, the adjusted hazard ratio for ESRD was 1.35, 1.54, 1.51, and 2.28 for hypertension burdens of 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively. A positive dose-dependent relationship between hypertension burden and ESRD was found (P for interaction < 0.001). This association was maintained for sustained exposure to both systolic and diastolic hypertension burden. In conclusion, hypertension burden increases the risk of ESRD. Our study underlines the usefulness of a new assessment of the hypertension burden over a certain period for predicting the risk of ESRD in a large population-based cohort.

Prediction models and nomograms for 10-year risk of end-stage renal disease in Chinese type 2 diabetes mellitus patients in primary care

AIMS

To develop and validate 10-year risk prediction models, nomograms and charts for end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in primary care, in order to guide individualized treatment.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This was a 10-year population-based observational cohort study. A total of 141 516 Chinese T2DM patients without history of cardiovascular disease or ESRD who were managed in public primary care clinics in 2008 were included and followed up until December 2017. Two-thirds of these patients were randomly selected to develop sex-specific ESRD risk prediction models using Cox regressions. The validity and accuracy of the models were tested on the remaining third of patients using Harrell's C-index. We selected variables based on their clinical and statistical importance to construct the nomograms and charts.

RESULTS

The median follow-up period was 9.75 years. The cumulative incidence of ESRD was 6.0% (men: 6.1%, women: 5.9%). Age, diabetes duration, systolic blood pressure (SBP), SBP variability, diastolic blood pressure, triglycerides, glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), HbA1c variability, urine albumin to creatinine ratio (UACR), and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) were significant predictors for both sexes. Smoking and total cholesterol to HDL cholesterol ratio were additional significant predictors for men and women, respectively. The models showed Harrell's C-statistics of 0.889/0.889 (women/men). Age, eGFR, UACR, SBP and HbA1c were selected for both sexes to develop nomograms and charts.

CONCLUSIONS

Using routinely available variables, the 10-year ESRD risk of Chinese T2DM patients in primary care can be predicted with approximately 90% accuracy. We have developed different tools to facilitate routine ESRD risk prediction in primary care, so that individualized care can be provided to prevent or delay ESRD in T2DM patients.

End-stage kidney disease in patients with clinically manifest vascular disease; incidence and risk factors: results from the UCC-SMART cohort study

BACKGROUND

Patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD) are at increased risk of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). Insights into the incidence and role of modifiable risk factors for end-stage kidney disease may provide means for prevention in patients with cardiovascular disease.

METHODS

We included 8402 patients with stable cardiovascular disease. Incidence rates (IRs) for end-stage kidney disease were determined stratified according to vascular disease location. Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess the risk of end-stage kidney disease for the different determinants.

RESULTS

Sixty-five events were observed with a median follow-up of 8.6 years. The overall incidence rate of end-stage kidney disease was 0.9/1000 person-years. Patients with polyvascular disease had the highest incidence rate (1.8/1000 person-years). Smoking (Hazard ratio (HR) 1.87; 95% CI 1.10-3.19), type 2 diabetes (HR 1.81; 95% CI 1.05-3.14), higher systolic blood pressure (HR 1.37; 95% CI 1.24-1.52/10 mmHg), lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) (HR 2.86; 95% CI 2.44-3.23/10 mL/min/1.73 m²) and higher urine albumin/creatinine ratio (uACR) (HR 1.19; 95% CI 1.15-1.23/10 mg/mmol) were independently associated with elevated risk of end-stage kidney disease. Body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, non-HDL-cholesterol and exercise were not independently associated with risk of end-stage kidney disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Incidence of end-stage kidney disease in patients with cardiovascular disease varies according to vascular disease location. Several modifiable risk factors for end-stage kidney disease were identified in patients with cardiovascular disease. These findings highlight the potential of risk factor management in patients with manifest cardiovascular disease.

24-h ambulatory blood pressure variability and hypertensive nephropathy in Han Chinese hypertensive patients

Blood pressure (BP) is characterized by spontaneous oscillation over time, which is described as BP variability (BPV). The current study aimed to investigate whether short‐term BPV was correlated with hypertensive nephropathy in Han Chinese individuals with hypertension. A single‐center prospective cohort study of 300 Han Chinese participants with hypertension was conducted in Taiwan. Five different BPV parameters were derived from ambulatory BP monitoring (ABPM), including standard deviation (SD), weighted SD (wSD), coefficient of variation (CoV), successive variation (SV), and average real variability (ARV). Renal event was defined as > 50% reduction in baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). The average age of the participants was 63.5 years. The baseline eGFR was 84.5 mL/min/1.73 m². The participants were divided into two groups according to the wSD of systolic BP (SBP). Survival was assessed via a Kaplan‐Meier analysis. During the 4.2‐year follow‐up, the participants with the highest SBP wSD tertile had a greater number of renal events (6.0%) than their counterparts (0.5%) (log‐rank test, p = .007). The Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to assess the independent effects of BPV, and results showed that 24‐h SBP (HR = 1.105; 95% CI = 1.020–1.197, p = .015) and 24‐h DBP (HR = 1.162; 95% CI = 1.004–1.344, p = .044) were independently associated with renal events. However, BPV parameters were only associated with renal events univariately, but not after adjusting for baseline characteristics, 24‐h mean BP, and office BP. Therefore, the risk of hypertensive nephropathy was independently associated with 24‐h mean BP, but not with ambulatory BPV, in Han Chinese participants with hypertension.

Visit-to-visit blood pressure variability and renal outcomes: results from ONTARGET and TRANSCEND trials

AIMS

There is conflicting evidence on whether in treated hypertensive patients the risk of renal outcomes is associated with visit-to-visit SBP variability. Furthermore, limited evidence is available on how important is SBP variability for prediction of renal outcomes compared with on-treatment mean SBP. We addressed these issues in 28 790 participants of the Ongoing Treatment Alone and in combination with Ramipril Global End point Trial and Telmisartan Randomized AssessmeNt Study in ACE iNtolerant Subjects with Cardiovascular Disease trials.

METHODS AND RESULTS

SBP variability was expressed as the coefficient of variation of the mean with which it showed no relationship. SBP variability and mean values were obtained from five visits during the first 2 years of treatment after the end of the titration phase. Incidence of several renal outcomes (end-stage renal disease, doubling of serum creatinine, new microalbuminuria, new macroalbuminuria and their composite) was calculated from the third year of treatment onward. Patients were divided in quintiles of SBP-coefficient of variation (SBP-CV) or mean SBP, which exhibited superimposable mean blood pressure and SBP-CV values, respectively. A progressive increase of SBP-CV was not accompanied by a parallel increase in a widely adjusted (baseline and on-treatment confounders) risk of most renal outcomes (end-stage renal disease, new macroalbuminuria, new microalbuminuria and their composite) in the subsequent on-treatment years. In contrast, the adjusted risk of most renal outcomes increased progressively from the lowest to the highest quintile of on-treatment mean SBP. Progression from lowest to highest mean on-treatment SBP, but not SBP-CV, was also associated with a less frequent return to normoalbuminuria in patients with initial micro or macroalbuminuria. Renal outcome prediction was slightly improved by the combined use of SBP-CV and mean SBP quintiles.

CONCLUSION

Visit-to-visit SBP variability had no major predictive value for the risk of renal outcomes, which, in contrast, was sensitively predicted by mean on-treatment SBP. A further slight increase in prediction of renal outcomes was seen by combining on-treatment mean SBP and variability.

Fasting plasma glucose level and the risk of open angle glaucoma: Nationwide population-based cohort study in Korea

Background

The level of fasting plasma glucose (FPG) is positively associated with intraocular pressure. Diabetes causes early structural changes of retina, especially on ganglion cell layer. In this regard, the FPG level itself may also show an independent association with open angle glaucoma (OAG) development in general population. Herein, we investigate the association of the FPG level with the incidence of OAG.

Methods

Using nationally representative data from the Korean National Health Insurance System, 374,376 subjects ≥40 years of age without OAG who underwent health examinations from 2009 to 2013 were enrolled and followed to the end of 2014. Incident cases of OAG using the International Classification of Diseases 10 codes and medication information were analyzed based on the levels of FPG.

Results

Subjects with the highest FPG level (≥160 mg/dL), compared with the lowest level (<80 mg/dL), showed a higher hazard ratio (HR) [2.189; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.779–2.695; P for trend < 0.001] for OAG after adjustments for age and sex. This result persisted after further adjustments for the presence of type 2 diabetes, current smoking, drinking, and exercise habits, diastolic blood pressure, body mass index (BMI), and total cholesterol level (HR: 1.588; 95% CI: 1.268–1.989; P for trend < 0.001). The positive association between the FPG level and the incidence of OAG was distinct in subjects 40–64 years of age, those with a BMI <25 kg/m², and those without hypertension (HR 2.022; 95% CI: 1.494–2.736; P for trend <0.001: HR 1.817; 95% CI: 1.372–2.407; P for trend < 0.001: HR 1.706; 95% CI: 1.180–2.467; P for trend <0.001, respectively).

Conclusions

This nationwide population-based cohort study showed that the fasting glucose was associated with an increased risk of OAG. These findings suggest that subjects with high FPG levels require special attention when screening for glaucoma.

Carbidopa for Afferent Baroreflex Failure in Familial Dysautonomia: A Double-Blind Randomized Crossover Clinical Trial

Afferent lesions of the arterial baroreflex occur in familial dysautonomia. This leads to excessive blood pressure variability with falls and frequent surges that damage the organs. These hypertensive surges are the result of excess peripheral catecholamine release and have no adequate treatment. Carbidopa is a selective DOPA-decarboxylase inhibitor that suppresses catecholamines production outside the brain. To learn whether carbidopa can inhibit catecholamine-induced hypertensive surges in patients with severe afferent baroreflex failure, we conducted a double-blind randomized crossover trial in which patients with familial dysautonomia received high dose carbidopa (600 mg/day), low-dose carbidopa (300 mg/day), or matching placebo in 3 4-week treatment periods. Among the 22 patients enrolled (13 females/8 males), the median age was 26 (range, 12-59 years). At enrollment, patients had hypertensive peaks to 164/116 (range, 144/92 to 213/150 mm Hg). Twenty-four hour urinary norepinephrine excretion, a marker of peripheral catecholamine release, was significantly suppressed on both high dose and low dose carbidopa, compared with placebo (P=0.0075). The 2 co-primary end points of the trial were met. The SD of systolic BP variability was reduced at both carbidopa doses (low dose: 17±4; high dose: 18±5 mm Hg) compared with placebo (23±7 mm Hg; P=0.0013), and there was a significant reduction in the systolic BP peaks on active treatment (P=0.0015). High- and low-dose carbidopa were similarly effective and well tolerated. This study provides class Ib evidence that carbidopa can reduce blood pressure variability in patients with congenital afferent baroreflex failure. Similar beneficial effects are observed in patients with acquired baroreflex lesions.

Effects of Cardiovascular Risk Factor Variability on Health Outcomes

Innumerable studies have suggested "the lower, the better" for cardiovascular risk factors, such as body weight, lipid profile, blood pressure, and blood glucose, in terms of health outcomes. However, excessively low levels of these parameters cause health problems, as seen in cachexia, hypoglycemia, and hypotension. Body weight fluctuation is related to mortality, diabetes, obesity, cardiovascular disease, and cancer, although contradictory findings have been reported. High lipid variability is associated with increased mortality and elevated risks of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, end-stage renal disease, and dementia. High blood pressure variability is associated with increased mortality, myocardial infarction, hospitalization, and dementia, which may be caused by hypotension. Furthermore, high glucose variability, which can be measured by continuous glucose monitoring systems or self-monitoring of blood glucose levels, is associated with increased mortality, microvascular and macrovascular complications of diabetes, and hypoglycemic events, leading to hospitalization. Variability in metabolic parameters could be affected by medications, such as statins, antihypertensives, and hypoglycemic agents, and changes in lifestyle patterns. However, other mechanisms modify the relationships between biological variability and various health outcomes. In this study, we review recent evidence regarding the role of variability in metabolic parameters and discuss the clinical implications of these findings.

Visit-to-visit blood pressure variability and risk of chronic kidney disease: A systematic review and meta-analyses

Objective

Previous studies have shown that visit-to-visit blood pressure variability (BPV) is associated with chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, the results have not been consistent among studies. This systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to comprehensively assess the association between visit-to-visit BPV and the risk of CKD.

Methods

Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Library were searched from the date of inception through 1 August 2019 using the terms “blood pressure variability,” “chronic kidney disease,” “nephropathy,” and other comparable terms. The primary outcome was the development of CKD. Two reviewers extracted the data independently. Meta-analysis was performed using a random effects model.

Results

Fourteen studies were included in the systematic review and meta-analysis. The risk of CKD was significantly greater in patients with high baseline systolic blood pressure variability (SBPV) than in patients with low baseline SBPV: the standard deviation (SD) showed relative risk (RR) of 1.69 and 95% CI of 1.38–2.08, the coefficient of variation (CV) showed RR of 1.23 and 95% CI of 1.12–1.36, and variance independent of mean (VIM) showed RR of 1.40 and 95% CI of 1.15–1.71. RRs for each unit increase in visit-to-visit SBPV and risk of CKD were 1.05 (95% CI: 1.03–1.07) for SD, 1.06 (95% CI: 1.03–1.09) for CV, and 1.1 (95% CI: 0.96–1.25) for VIM. Diastolic BPV was similarly predictive of CKD based on SD and CV.

Conclusions

Increased visit-to-visit BPV might be an independent risk factor for CKD. However, significant heterogeneity was present; thus, future prospective studies are needed to confirm our findings. Our results indicate that treatment of hypertension should control blood pressure levels and prevent abnormal fluctuations in blood pressure to reduce the risk of CKD.

Multistate Models to Predict Development of Late Complications of Type 2 Diabetes in an Open Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Increase in the prevalence of type 2 diabetic mellitus (T2DM) as a complex disease, its complications, and spread has become a dominant global health threat in recent decades.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the current study was to investigate the impact of risk factors and transition probability on the development and progression of the late complications of T2DM.

METHODS

This study was an open cohort one which was conducted at Isfahan Endocrine and Metabolism Research Center (IEMRC). The data were collected from 1993 to 2018. The sample size consisted of 2519 adults diagnosed with type 2 diabetes. We applied the homogeneous multistate models including no complication, retinopathy alone, coronary artery disease (CAD), microalbuminuria, retinopathy and CAD, and the final absorbing mortality states.

RESULTS

Based on our results, time-varying hypertension strongly intensified the hazard of transition to mortality in CAD, no complication, CAD and retinopathy, and retinopathy patients by 4.99, 4.09, 3.42, and 2.65 times, respectively. Hypertension seemed to be a potential factor for the transition of microalbuminuria to no complication in diabetic patients. One-unit increase in LDL increased the hazard ratio of transition from CAD, and retinopathy and CAD to mortality by 1.8% and 2.4%, respectively. Moreover, one level increase in time-varying HbA1c increased the hazard ratio of transition to retinopathy and mortality among no complication diabetic patients by 30% and 67%, respectively. One level increase in time-varying HbA1c also intensified the hazard ratio of transition from retinopathy to mortality by 45%. The same level of increase in time-varying HbA1c also intensified the hazard ratio of transition from CAD alone to CAD and retinopathy, and microalbuminuria to retinopathy by 26% and 50%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

In addition to glycemic control, our study indicates that controlling hypertension and hyperlipidemia is more effective in reducing mortality and the diabetic macro- and microvascular complications.