NT-proBNP by Itself Predicts Death and Cardiovascular Events in High-Risk Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

Prediction model of in-hospital cardiac arrest using machine learning in the early phase of hospitalization

In hospitals, the deterioration of a patient's condition leading to death is often preceded by physiological abnormalities in the hours to days beforehand. Several risk-scoring systems have been developed to identify patients at risk of major adverse events; however, such systems often exhibit low sensitivity and specificity. To identify the risk factors associated with in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA), we conducted a retrospective cohort study at a tertiary medical center in Taiwan. Four machine learning algorithms were employed to identify the factors most predictive of IHCA. The support vector machine model was discovered to be the most effective at predicting IHCA. The ten most critical physiological parameters at 8 h prior to the event were pulse rate, age, white blood cell count, lymphocyte count, body temperature, body mass index, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, platelet count, and use of central nervous system-active medication. Using these parameters, we can enhance early warning and rapid response systems in our hospital, potentially reducing the incidence of IHCA in clinical practice.

Cardiometabolic Co-morbidity Burden and Circulating Biomarkers in Patients With Chronic Coronary Disease in the ISCHEMIA Trials

Cardiometabolic co-morbidities, diabetes (DM), hypertension (HTN), and obesity contribute to cardiovascular disease. Circulating biomarkers facilitate prognostication for patients with cardiovascular disease. We explored the relation between cardiometabolic co-morbidity burden in patients with chronic coronary disease and biomarkers of myocardial stretch, injury, inflammation, and platelet activity. We analyzed participants from the International Study of Comparative Health Effectiveness with Medical and Invasive Approaches (ISCHEMIA) trials biorepository with plasma biomarkers (N-terminal probrain natriuretic peptide, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, soluble CD40 ligand, and growth differentiation factor-15) and clinical risk factors (hemoglobin A1c [HbA1c], systolic blood pressure [SBP], and body mass index [BMI]) at baseline. We defined cardiometabolic co-morbidities as DM, HTN, and obesity at baseline. Co-morbidity burden is characterized by the number and severity of co-morbidities. Controlled co-morbidities were defined as HbA1c <7% for those with DM, SBP <130 mm Hg for those with HTN, and BMI <30 kg/m2. Severely uncontrolled was defined as HbA1c ≥8%, SBP ≥160 mm Hg, and BMI ≥35 kg/m2. We performed linear regression analyses to examine the association between co-morbidity burden and log-transformed biomarker levels, adjusting for age, gender, estimated glomerular filtration rate controlled for hemodialysis, and left ventricular ejection fraction. A total of 752 participants (mean age 66 years, 19% women, 84% White) were included in this analysis. Self-reported Black race, current smokers, history of myocardial infarction, and heart failure had a greater cardiometabolic co-morbidity burden. The presence of ≥1 severely uncontrolled co-morbidity was associated with significantly higher baseline levels of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, and growth differentiation factor-15 than participants with no co-morbidities. In conclusion, increasing cardiometabolic co-morbidity burden in patients with chronic coronary disease is associated with higher levels of circulating biomarkers of myocardial injury and inflammation.

Detecting heart stress using NT-proBNP in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and hypertension or high-normal blood pressure: a cross-sectional multicentric study

BACKGROUND

We evaluated the prevalence of "heart stress" (HS) based on NT-proBNP cut-points proposed by the 2023 Consensus of the Heart Failure Association (HFA) of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) in asymptomatic patients with T2DM and hypertension or high-normal blood pressure (BP) eligible for SGLT2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) and/or GLP-1 receptor agonists (GLP1-RA), drugs with proven benefits on reducing the incidence of HF, hospitalizations, cardiovascular events and mortality.

METHODS

A cross-sectional multicentric study was conducted on 192 consecutive outpatients, aged ≥ 55 years, with hypertension or high-normal BP, referred to three diabetology units. NT-proBNP was collected before starting new anti-diabetic therapy. Patients with known HF were excluded, and participants were classified based on the age-adjusted NT-proBNP cut-points.

RESULTS

Mean age: 70.3 ± 7.8 years (67.5% males). Patients with obesity (BMI ≥ 30 Kg/m2): 63.8%. Median NT-proBNP: 96.0 (38.8-213.0) pg/mL. Prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD, eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73m2): 32.1%. Mean arterial BP: 138.5/77.0 ± 15.8/9.9 mmHg. The NT-proBNP values, according to the proposed age-adjusted cut-points, classified 28.6% of patients as "HS likely" (organize elective echocardiography and specialist evaluation), 43.2% as "HS not likely" (a grey area, repeat NT-proBNP at six months) and 28.2% as "very unlikely HS" (repeat NT-proBNP at one year). The presence of CKD and the number of anti-hypertensive drugs, but not glycemic parameters, were independently associated with HS.

CONCLUSIONS

According to NT-proBNP, over a quarter of T2DM patients with hypertension/high-normal BP, among those eligible for SGLT2i and/or GLP1-RA, were already at risk of cardiac damage, even subclinical. Most would receive an indication to echocardiogram and be referred to a specialist, allowing the early implementation of effective strategies to prevent or delay the progression to advanced stages of cardiac disease and overt HF.

Relationship between NT-proBNP, echocardiographic abnormalities and functional status in patients with subclinical siabetic cardiomyopathy

INTRODUCTION

Persons with diabetes are at risk for developing a cardiomyopathy through several pathophysiological mechanisms independent of traditional risk factors for heart failure. Among those with diabetic cardiomyopathy (DbCM), the relationship between natriuretic peptides, cardiac structural abnormalities and functional capacity is largely unknown.

METHODS

In this prespecified subgroup analysis of the Aldose Reductase Inhibition for Stabilization of Exercise Capacity in Heart Failure (ARISE-HF) trial, 685 participants with asymptomatic DbCM underwent baseline echocardiography data, laboratory investigations, and functional assessments. Participants were stratified by N-terminal pro-B type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) quartiles, and correlation with echocardiographic and functional parameters were assessed using Spearman correlation test.

RESULTS

The median NT-proBNP was 71 (Q1, Q3: 33, 135) ng/L. No association was observed between NT-proBNP concentrations and echocardiographic parameters of either diastolic or systolic dysfunction including global longitudinal strain, left ventricular ejection fraction, left ventricular mass index, left atrial volume index, E/E', or right ventricular systolic pressure. In contrast, NT-proBNP was significantly correlated with overall Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire score (rho = - 0.10; p = 0.007), the Physical Activity Scale in the Elderly (rho = - 0.12; p = 0.004), duration of cardiopulmonary exercise testing (rho = - 0.28; p < 0.001), peak VO2 (rho = - 0.26; p < 0.001), and ratio of minute ventilation/carbon dioxide production (rho = 0.12; p = 0.002). After adjustment for known confounders, the correlation with Physical Activity Scale in the Elderly and overall Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire score was no longer significant.

CONCLUSION

Among patients with subclinical DbCM, elevated NT-proBNP concentrations are associated with worse health status, lower activity levels, and reduced functional capacity, but not with cardiac structural abnormalities. These findings suggest that regardless of cardiac structural abnormalities, biomarker concentrations reflect important deterioration in functional capacity in affected individuals.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ARISE-HF, NCT04083339 Date Registered August 23, 2019.

Association of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide with survival among US cancer survivors

BACKGROUND

N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) is a cardiac biomarker associated with the risk of heart failure and death in the general population, but it has not been explored in cancer survivors.

METHODS

Using a US nationally representative sample of adults 20 years of age and older from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 1999 to 2004, this study compared NT-proBNP levels between adults without cancer (n = 12 574) and adult cancer survivors (n = 787). It examined the association of NT-proBNP with all-cause and cause-specific mortality among cancer survivors.

RESULTS

Cancer survivors had higher NT-proBNP levels than adults without cancer (median [interquartile range] = 125.4 pg/mL [52.4-286.0] vs 43.2 pg/mL [20.3-95.0]). In particular, survivors of breast, prostate, and colorectal cancers had higher NT-proBNP levels than adults without cancer (multivariable-adjusted P < .05). In total, 471 survivors died (141 from cancer; 95 from cardiac disease) during a median follow-up period of 13.4 years (9393 person-years). Among cancer survivors, higher NT-proBNP levels were statistically associated with increased risks of all-cause death (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.31, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.18 to 1.46) and cardiac death (HR = 1.55, 95% CI = 1.21 to 2.00) but not with death from cancer (HR = 1.10, 95% CI = 0.92 to 1.32]). Higher NT-proBNP levels were associated with elevated overall mortality in survivors of prostate cancer (HR = 1.49, 95% CI = 1.22 to 1.81) and colorectal cancer (HR = 1.78, 95% CI = 1.00 to 3.16) (P = .169 for interaction). Nonlinear dose-response relationships were observed between NT-proBNP and mortality, with statistically significant relationships emerging above 125 pg/mL.

CONCLUSIONS

Cancer survivors had higher NT-proBNP levels than adults without cancer, and elevated NT-proBNP levels were associated with higher risks of all-cause and cardiac mortality in cancer survivors.

Assessing mortality risk in Type 2 Diabetes patients with prolonged ASCVD risk factors: the inclusive Poh-Ai predictive scoring system with CAC Score integration

PURPOSE

To enhance the predictive risk model for all-cause mortality in individuals with Type 2 Diabetes (T2DM) and prolonged Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) risk factors. Despite the utility of the Coronary Artery Calcium (CAC) score in assessing cardiovascular risk, its capacity to predict all-cause mortality remains limited.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study included 1929 asymptomatic T2DM patients with ASCVD risk factors, aged 40-80. Variables encompassed demographic attributes, clinical parameters, CAC scores, comorbidities, and medication usage. Factors predicting all-cause mortality were selected to create a predictive scoring system. By using stepwise selection in a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model, we divided the patients into three risk groups.

RESULTS

In our analysis of all-cause mortality in T2DM patients with extended ASCVD risk factors over 5 years, we identified significant risk factors, their adjusted hazard ratios (aHR), and scores: e.g., CAC score > 1000 (aHR: 1.57, score: 2), CAC score 401-1000 (aHR: 2.05, score: 2), and more. These factors strongly predict all-cause mortality, with varying risk groups (e.g., very low-risk: 2.0%, very high-risk: 24.0%). Significant differences in 5-year overall survival rates were observed among these groups (log-rank test < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The Poh-Ai Predictive Scoring System excels in forecasting mortality and cardiovascular events in individuals with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and extended ASCVD risk factors.

The relative and combined ability of stress hyperglycemia ratio and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide to predict all-cause mortality in diabetic patients with multivessel coronary artery disease

BACKGROUND

Stress hyperglycemia ratio (SHR) and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) are independently associated with increased mortality risk in diabetic patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). However, the role of these biomarkers in patients with diabetes and multivessel disease (MVD) remains unknown. The present study aimed to assess the relative and combined abilities of these biomarkers to predict all-cause mortality in patients with diabetes and MVD.

METHODS

This study included 1148 diabetic patients with MVD who underwent coronary angiography at Tianjin Chest Hospital between January 2016 and December 2016. The patients were divided into four groups according to their SHR (SHR-L and SHR-H) and NT-proBNP (NT-proBNP-L and NT-proBNP-H) levels. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to evaluate the association of SHR and NT-proBNP levels with all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

During a mean 4.2 year follow-up, 138 patients died. Multivariate analysis showed that SHR and NT-proBNP were strong independent predictors of all-cause mortality in diabetic patients with MVD (SHR: HR hazard ratio [2.171; 95%CI 1.566-3.008; P < 0.001; NT-proBNP: HR: 1.005; 95%CI 1.001-1.009; P = 0.009). Compared to patients in the first (SHR-L and NT-proBNP-L) group, patients in the fourth (SHR-H and NT-proBNP-H) group had the highest mortality risk (HR: 12.244; 95%CI 5.828-25.721; P < 0.001). The areas under the curve were 0.615(SHR) and 0.699(NT-proBNP) for all-cause mortality. Adding either marker to the original models significantly improved the C-statistic and integrated discrimination improvement values (all P < 0.05). Moreover, combining SHR and NT-proBNP levels into the original model provided maximal prognostic information.

CONCLUSIONS

SHR and NT-proBNP independently and jointly predicted all-cause mortality in diabetic patients with MVD, suggesting that strategies to improve risk stratification in these patients should incorporate SHR and NT-porBNP into risk algorithms.

Impact of age on the predictive value of NT-proBNP in patients with diabetes mellitus stabilised after an acute coronary syndrome

AIMS

To assess the impact of age on the prognostic value of NT-proBNP concentration in patients with type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) stabilised after an Acute Coronary Syndrome (ACS).

METHODS

The AleCardio study compared aleglitazar with placebo in 7226 patients with T2DM and recent ACS. Patients with heart failure were excluded. Median follow-up was 104 weeks. Baseline NT-proBNP plasma concentration was measured centrally. Multivariable Cox regression was used to determine the mortality predictive information provided by NT-proBNP across age groups.

RESULTS

Median age was 61y (IQR 54, 67). NT-proBNP concentration increased by quartile (Q) of age (median 264, 318, 391, and 588 pg/ml). Compared to Q1, patients in Q4 of NT-proBNP had higher (p < 0.001) adjusted HR for all-cause (aHR 6.9; 95 % CI 4.0-12) and cardiovascular (11; 5.4-23) death. Within each age Q, baseline NT-proBNP in patients who died was 3 times higher than in survivors (all p < 0.001). When age and NT-proBNP levels were modeled as continuous variables, their interaction term was nonsignificant. The relative prognostic information provided by NT-proBNP (percent of total X2) increased from 38 % in age Q1 to 75 % in age Q4 for mortality, and from 50 % to 88 % for CV death.

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients with T2DM stabilised after an ACS, NT-proBNP level predicts death irrespective of age.

Development of early prediction model of in-hospital cardiac arrest based on laboratory parameters

BACKGROUND

In-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) is an acute disease with a high fatality rate that burdens individuals, society, and the economy. This study aimed to develop a machine learning (ML) model using routine laboratory parameters to predict the risk of IHCA in rescue-treated patients.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study examined all rescue-treated patients hospitalized at the First Medical Center of the PLA General Hospital in Beijing, China, from January 2016 to December 2020. Five machine learning algorithms, including support vector machine, random forest, extra trees classifier (ETC), decision tree, and logistic regression algorithms, were trained to develop models for predicting IHCA. We included blood counts, biochemical markers, and coagulation markers in the model development. We validated model performance using fivefold cross-validation and used the SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) for model interpretation.

RESULTS

A total of 11,308 participants were included in the study, of which 7779 patients remained. Among these patients, 1796 (23.09%) cases of IHCA occurred. Among five machine learning models for predicting IHCA, the ETC algorithm exhibited better performance, with an AUC of 0.920, compared with the other four machine learning models in the fivefold cross-validation. The SHAP showed that the top ten factors accounting for cardiac arrest in rescue-treated patients are prothrombin activity, platelets, hemoglobin, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, neutrophils, prothrombin time, serum albumin, sodium, activated partial thromboplastin time, and potassium.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a reliable machine learning-derived model that integrates readily available laboratory parameters to predict IHCA in patients treated with rescue therapy.

The association of plasma NT-proBNP level and progression of diabetic kidney disease

AIMS

Diabetic kidney disease (DKD) is the most common cause of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). The identification of risk factors involved in the progression of DKD to ESKD is expected to result in early detection and appropriate intervention and improve prognosis. This study aimed to explore whether plasma N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) was associated with kidney outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and biopsy-proven DKD.

METHODS

Patients with biopsy-proven DKD who were followed up at West China Hospital over 12 months were enrolled. The kidney outcome was defined as progression to ESKD. The cutoff value of plasma NT-proBNP concentration was calculated by using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. The influence of NT-proBNP levels on kidney outcome in patients with DKD was assessed using Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 30 (24.5%) patients reached ESKD during a median follow-up of 24.1 months. The baseline serum NT-proBNP level had a significant correlation with baseline proteinuria, kidney function, glomerular lesions, interstitial fibrosis tubular atrophy (IFTA), and arteriolar hyalinosis. Multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated that increased NT-proBNP level was significantly associated with a higher risk of progression to ESKD (HR 6.43; 95% CI (1.65-25.10, p = 0.007), and each 1 SD increase in LG (NT-proBNP) was also associated with a higher risk (HR 2.43; 95% CI 1.94-5.29, p = 0.047) of an adverse kidney outcome after adjusting for confounding factors.

CONCLUSIONS

A higher level of plasma NT-proBNP predicts kidney prognosis in patients with biopsy-proven DKD. This warrants further investigation into the potential mechanisms.

NT-proBNP and cardiovascular event risk in individuals with prediabetes undergoing cardiovascular evaluation

AIMS

Cardiovascular risk assessment beyond traditional risk factors in subjects with prediabetes is not well-established. Here, we evaluated the utility of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) in predicting incident adverse cardiovascular outcomes in prediabetic subjects.

METHODS

NT-proBNP was analyzed in 3,235 stable subjects with prediabetes undergoing cardiovascular risk evaluation and followed for both 3-year major adverse cardiac events (MACE; death, myocardial infarction, stroke), and 5-year all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

Using Cox proportional hazard models, we found that plasma NT-proBNP was associated with incident (3-year) MACE risk (Q4 vs Q1, HR 6.04 [95%CI 4.17-8.76], P < 0.001) and 5-year mortality risk (HR 8.64 [95%CI 5.78-12.9], P < 0.001). These associations remained significant after adjustments for traditional cardiovascular risk factors, multiple indices of glycemic control, cardiovascular disease (CVD), left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), and medication (e.g. diuretic) use (adjusted HR for 3-year MACE 2.65 [95% CI 1.16-6.05], P < 0.05; and adjusted HR for 5-year mortality 3.45 [95% CI 1.42-8.39], P < 0.01). NT-proBNP significantly improved the clinical prognostic value (C-statistic, NRI, IDI) for both 3-year MACE and 5-year death when added to models.

CONCLUSIONS

NT-proBNP independently predicts increased long-term MACE and mortality risks in prediabetic subjects, and may help identify those for whom more aggressive global preventive efforts are indicated.

2023 UPDATE: Luso-Brazilian evidence-based guideline for the management of antidiabetic therapy in type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND

The management of antidiabetic therapy in people with type 2 diabetes (T2D) has evolved beyond glycemic control. In this context, Brazil and Portugal defined a joint panel of four leading diabetes societies to update the guideline published in 2020.

METHODS

The panelists searched MEDLINE (via PubMed) for the best evidence from clinical studies on treating T2D and its cardiorenal complications. The panel searched for evidence on antidiabetic therapy in people with T2D without cardiorenal disease and in patients with T2D and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), heart failure (HF), or diabetic kidney disease (DKD). The degree of recommendation and the level of evidence were determined using predefined criteria.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

All people with T2D need to have their cardiovascular (CV) risk status stratified and HbA1c, BMI, and eGFR assessed before defining therapy. An HbA1c target of less than 7% is adequate for most adults, and a more flexible target (up to 8%) should be considered in frail older people. Non-pharmacological approaches are recommended during all phases of treatment. In treatment naïve T2D individuals without cardiorenal complications, metformin is the agent of choice when HbA1c is 7.5% or below. When HbA1c is above 7.5% to 9%, starting with dual therapy is recommended, and triple therapy may be considered. When HbA1c is above 9%, starting with dual therapyt is recommended, and triple therapy should be considered. Antidiabetic drugs with proven CV benefit (AD1) are recommended to reduce CV events if the patient is at high or very high CV risk, and antidiabetic agents with proven efficacy in weight reduction should be considered when obesity is present. If HbA1c remains above target, intensification is recommended with triple, quadruple therapy, or even insulin-based therapy. In people with T2D and established ASCVD, AD1 agents (SGLT2 inhibitors or GLP-1 RA with proven CV benefit) are initially recommended to reduce CV outcomes, and metformin or a second AD1 may be necessary to improve glycemic control if HbA1c is above the target. In T2D with HF, SGLT2 inhibitors are recommended to reduce HF hospitalizations and mortality and to improve HbA1c. In patients with DKD, SGLT2 inhibitors in combination with metformin are recommended when eGFR is above 30 mL/min/1.73 m2. SGLT2 inhibitors can be continued until end-stage kidney disease.

Biomarker Changes Associated With Both Dulaglutide and Cardiovascular Events in the REWIND Randomized Controlled Trial: A Nested Case-Control Post Hoc Analysis

OBJECTIVE

The glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist dulaglutide reduced MACE in the Researching Cardiovascular Events with a Weekly Incretin in Diabetes (REWIND) trial. This article expores the relationship of selected biomarkers to both dulaglutide and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

In this post hoc analysis, stored fasting baseline and 2-year plasma samples from 824 REWIND participants with MACE during follow-up and 845 matched non-MACE participants were analyzed for 2-year changes in 19 protein biomarkers. Two-year changes in 135 metabolites were also analyzed in 600 participants with MACE during follow-up and in 601 matched non-MACE participants. Linear and logistic regression models were used to identify proteins that were associated with both dulaglutide treatment and MACE. Similar models were used to identify metabolites that were associated with both dulaglutide treatment and MACE.

RESULTS

Compared with placebo, dulaglutide was associated with a greater reduction or lesser 2-year rise from baseline in N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, and a greater 2-year rise in C-peptide. Compared with placebo, dulaglutide was also associated with a greater fall from baseline in 2-hydroxybutyric acid and a greater rise in threonine (P < 0.001). Increases from baseline in two of the proteins (but neither metabolite) were associated with MACE, including NT-proBNP (OR 1.267; 95% CI 1.119, 1.435; P < 0.001) and GDF-15 (OR 1.937; 95% CI 1.424, 2.634; P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Dulaglutide was associated with a reduced 2-year rise from baseline of NT-proBNP and GDF-15. Higher rises of these biomarkers were also associated with MACE.

Role of Klotho and AGE/RAGE-Wnt/β-Catenin Signalling Pathway on the Development of Cardiac and Renal Fibrosis in Diabetes

Fibrosis plays an important role in the pathogenesis of long-term diabetic complications and contributes to the development of cardiac and renal dysfunction. The aim of this experimental study, performed in a long-term rat model, which resembles type 1 diabetes mellitus, was to investigate the role of soluble Klotho (sKlotho), advanced glycation end products (AGEs)/receptor for AGEs (RAGE), fibrotic Wnt/β-catenin pathway, and pro-fibrotic pathways in kidney and heart. Diabetes was induced by streptozotocin. Glycaemia was maintained by insulin administration for 24 weeks. Serum and urine sKlotho, AGEs, soluble RAGE (sRAGE) and biochemical markers were studied. The levels of Klotho, RAGEs, ADAM10, markers of fibrosis (collagen deposition, fibronectin, TGF-β1, and Wnt/β-catenin pathway), hypertrophy of the kidney and/or heart were analysed. At the end of study, diabetic rats showed higher levels of urinary sKlotho, AGEs and sRAGE and lower serum sKlotho compared with controls without differences in the renal Klotho expression. A significant positive correlation was found between urinary sKlotho and AGEs and urinary albumin/creatinine ratio (uACR). Fibrosis and RAGE levels were significantly higher in the heart without differences in the kidney of diabetic rats compared to controls. The results also suggest the increase in sKlotho and sRAGE excretion may be due to polyuria in the diabetic rats.

Association of Long-term Change in N-Terminal Pro-B-Type Natriuretic Peptide With Incident Heart Failure and Death

Importance

Most studies, especially in primary prevention patients, have evaluated N-terminal B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) at one time point. Evaluation of change in NT-proBNP may improve risk stratification for incident cardiovascular events.

Objective

To assess the association between change in NT-proBNP and risk for incident heart failure (HF) and death.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Participants were recruited from 4 US communities enrolled in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Community (ARIC) study. Individuals who attended ARIC visits 2 and 4 (approximately 6 years apart) with measurements of NT-proBNP and without prevalent HF were included. Assays of NT-proBNP were conducted between 2011 and 2013, and analysis took place between July 2021 and October 2022.

Exposures

The primary exposure variable was NT-proBNP change between visits 2 and 4, modeled as change categories (<125 pg/mL or ≥125 pg/mL) and as percent change.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome measures were incident HF hospitalization and all-cause death. The association between changes in cardiovascular risk factors with change in NT-proBNP was further assessed.

Results

A total of 9776 individuals (mean [SD] age, 57.1 [5.7] years at visit 2; 5523 [56.5%] women) were included in the study. Compared with participants with NT-proBNP level less than 125 pg/mL at both visits, participants with NT-proBNP level of 125 pg/mL or higher at both visits had an increase in incident HF (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 2.40 [95% CI, 2.00-2.88]) and mortality risk (HR, 1.68 [95% CI, 1.47-1.91). Participants with NT-proBNP levels of 125 pg/mL or higher at visit 2 and less than 125 pg/mL at visit 4 had similar risk for HF and death (HR, 1.01 [95% CI, 0.71-1.43]; HR, 0.79 [95% CI, 0.61-1.01]) compared with the group with NT-proBNP levels of less than 125 pg/mL at both visits. The percent change in NT-proBNP was positively associated with HF and death (HR, 1.06 [95% CI, 1.02-1.10]; HR, 1.05 [95% CI, 1.03-1.08] per 1-SD increase, respectively). Change in systolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglyceride level, body mass index, and estimated glomerular filtration rate were significantly associated with change in NT-proBNP.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study, 6-year change in NT-proBNP reflected dynamic change in risk for HF events and death among community-dwelling adults without prevalent clinical HF. These results support the utility of serial NT-proBNP measurements to improve risk stratification of patients with pre-HF.

Quantifying and Interpreting the Prediction Accuracy of Models for the Time of a Cardiovascular Event-Moving Beyond C Statistic: A Review

Importance

For personalized or stratified medicine, it is critical to establish a reliable and efficient prediction model for a clinical outcome of interest. The goal is to develop a parsimonious model with fewer predictors for broad future application without compromising predictability. A general approach is to construct various empirical models via individual patients' specific baseline characteristics/biomarkers and then evaluate their relative merits. When the outcome of interest is the timing of a cardiovascular event, a commonly used metric to assess the adequacy of the fitted models is based on C statistics. These measures quantify a model's ability to separate those who develop events earlier from those who develop them later or not at all (discrimination), but they do not measure how closely model estimates match observed outcomes (prediction accuracy). Metrics that provide clinically interpretable measures to quantify prediction accuracy are needed.

Observations

C statistics measure the concordance between the risk scores derived from the model and the observed event time observations. However, C statistics do not quantify the model prediction accuracy. The integrated Brier Score, which calculates the mean squared distance between the empirical cumulative event-free curve and its individual patient's counterparts, estimates the prediction accuracy, but it is not clinically intuitive. A simple alternative measure is the average distance between the observed and predicted event times over the entire study population. This metric directly quantifies the model prediction accuracy and has often been used to evaluate the goodness of fit of the assumed models in settings other than survival data. This time-scale measure is easier to interpret than the C statistics or the Brier score.

Conclusions and Relevance

This article enhances our understanding of the model selection/evaluation process with respect to prediction accuracy. A simple, intuitive measure for quantifying such accuracy beyond C statistics can improve the reliability and efficiency of the selected model for personalized and stratified medicine.

Importance of NT-proBNP and conventional risk factors for prediction of death in older adults with and without diabetes mellitus- A report from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study

In this community-based cohort of 5861 individuals followed for median 7.2 years, the discriminatory ability of NT-proBNP alone in predicting mortality was similar to that of multiple conventional markers of risk in people without diabetes. In people with diabetes, NT-proBNP alone discriminated risk of mortality better than conventional risk factors.

A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Advanced Biomarkers for Predicting Incident Cardiovascular Disease among Asymptomatic Middle-Aged Adults

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) continues as the most important cause of mortality. Better risk screening and prediction are needed to reduce the cardiovascular disease burden. The aim of the study was to assess the role of serum biomarkers in the prediction of CVD among asymptomatic middle-aged adults with no prior CVD history. A systematic review and meta-analysis were carried out using literature from PubMed and following PRISMA reporting guidelines. Twenty-five studies met our inclusion criteria and were included in the systematic review. The most commonly studied biomarker was high-sensitivity C reactive protein (hs-CRP) (10 studies), which showed that higher hs-CRP levels are associated with an increased risk of subsequent CVD events and mortality. In addition, several less-studied biomarkers (N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), fibrinogen, gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT), and others) also showed significant associations with greater future risk of CVD. A meta-analysis was possible to perform for hs-CRP and NT-proBNP, which showed statistically significant results for the ability of hs-CRP (hazard ratio (HR) 1.19, (95% CI: 1.09−1.30), p < 0.05) and NT-proBNP (HR 1.22, (1.13−1.32), p < 0.05) to predict incident CVD among middle-aged adults without a prior CVD history or symptoms. Several serum biomarkers, particularly hs-CRP and NT-proBNP, have the potential to improve primary CVD risk prevention among asymptomatic middle-aged adults.

N-Terminal Prohormone Brain Natriuretic Peptide as a Prognostic Biomarker for the Risk of Complications in Type 2 Diabetes: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Objective

This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed at summarizing the existing clinical evidence to evaluate the prognostic performance of N-terminal prohormone brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) in predicting cardiovascular events, cardiovascular-related mortality, and all-cause mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes.

Methods

Searches were performed in Medline, Embase, Scopus, and Web of Science databases before August 1, 2021. The data were recorded as adjusted hazard ratio (HR).

Results

An increase in NT-proBNP increases the risk of cardiovascular events (HR = 1.63), cardiovascular mortality (HR = 1.86) and all-cause mortality (HR = 1.54). Seemingly, the best cutoffs for predicting cardiovascular events (HR = 2.30) and cardiovascular mortality (HR = 3.77) are levels greater than 100 pg/mL. The best cutoff of NT-proBNP in predicting all-cause mortality is levels greater than 225 pg/mL (HR = 4.72).

Conclusion

A moderate level of evidence demonstrated that NT-proBNP serum levels can predict future cardiovascular events, cardiovascular mortality, and all-cause mortality. Thus, it can be used as risk stratification for type 2 diabetes.

Left ventricular strain patterns and their relationships with cardiac biomarkers in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy patients with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction

Aims

This study aims to assess left ventricular (LV) function in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) patients with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) by LV strain patterns based on cardiac magnetic resonance feature tracking (CMR-FT) and to explore the relationships between LV strain patterns and cardiac biomarkers in these patients, such as cardiac troponin (cTnT) and N-terminal prohormone of the brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP).

Methods

A total of 64 HCM patients with preserved LVEF and 33 healthy people were included in this study. All subjects underwent contrast-enhanced CMR, and all patients took blood tests for cTnT and NT-proBNP during hospitalization.

Results

Despite the absence of a significant difference in LVEF between HCM patients and healthy controls, almost all global and segmental strains in radial, circumferential, and longitudinal directions in the HCM group deteriorated significantly as compared to controls (p < 0.05). Moreover, some global and segmental strains correlated significantly with NT-proBNP and cTnT in HCM patients, and the best correlations were global radial strain (GRS) (r = -0.553, p < 0.001) and mid-ventricular radial strain (MRS) (r = -0.582, p < 0.001), respectively, with a moderate correlation. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) results showed that among the LV deformation parameters, GRS [area under the curve (AUC), 0.76; sensitivity, 0.49; specificity, 1.00], MRS (AUC, 0.81; sensitivity, 0.77; specificity, 0.79) demonstrated greater diagnostic accuracy to predict elevated NT-proBNP, and abnormal cTnT, respectively. Their cut-off values were 21.17 and 20.94%, respectively. Finally, all global strains demonstrated moderate, good, and excellent intra- and inter-observer reproducibility.

Conclusion

LV strain patterns can be used to assess the subclinical cardiac function of HCM patients on the merit of being more sensitive than LVEF. In addition, LV strain patterns can detect serious HCM patients and may be helpful to non-invasively predict elevated NT-proBNP and cTnT.

The MAGGIC risk score in the prediction of death or hospitalization in patients with heart failure: Comparison with natriuretic peptides

BACKGROUND

The MAGGIC risk score has been validated to predict mortality in patients with heart failure (HF).

OBJECTIVES

To assess the score ability to predict hospitalization and death and to compare with natriuretic peptides.

METHODS

Ninety-three consecutive patients (mean age 62±10 years) with chronic HF and left ventricular ejection fraction (EF) <50% were studied. The MAGGIC score was applied at baseline and the patients were followed for 219±86 days. MAGGIC score was compared with NT-proBNP in the prediction of events. The primary end point was the time to the first event, which was defined as cardiovascular death or hospitalization for HF.

RESULTS

There were 23 (24.7%) events (3 deaths and 20 hospitalizations). The median score in patients with and without events was, respectively, 20 [interquartile range 14.2-22] vs. 15.5 [11/21], p=0.16. A ROC curve was performed and a cutoff point of 12 points showed a sensitivity of 87% and specificity of 37% with an area under the curve of 0.59 (95% CI 0.48-0.69) which was lower than that of NT-proBNP (AUC 0.67; 95% CI 0.56-0.76). The mean event-free survival time for patients above and below this cutpoint was 248.8±13 vs. 290±13.7 days (log rank test with p=0.044). Using the COX proportional hazard model, age (p=0.004), NT-proBNP >1000 pg/mL (p=0.014) and the MAGGIC score (p=0.025) were independently associated with the primary outcome.

CONCLUSION

The MAGGIC risk score was an independent predictor of events, including heart failure hospitalization. The addition of biomarkers improved the accuracy of the score.

Prognostic value of soluble ST2, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin, and NT-proBNP in type 2 diabetes: a 15-year retrospective study

Background

Patients with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) present an increased risk of cardiovascular (CV) disease and excess CV-related mortality. Beyond the established role of brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) and cardiac troponins (cTn), other non-cardiac-specific biomarkers are emerging as predictors of CV outcomes in T2DM.

Methods

Serum levels of soluble suppression of tumorigenesis 2 (sST2), high-sensitivity (hs)-cTnI, and N-terminal (NT)-proBNP were assessed in 568 patients with T2DM and 115 healthy controls (CTR). Their association with all-cause mortality and the development of diabetic complications was tested in T2DM patients over a median follow-up of 16.8 years using Cox models and logistic regressions.

Results

sST2 followed an increasing trend from CTR to uncomplicated T2DM patients (T2DM-NC) to patients with at least one complication (T2DM-C), while hs-cTnI was significantly higher in T2DM-C compared to CTR but not to T2DM-NC. A graded association was found between sST2 (HR 2.76 [95% CI 1.20–6.33] for ≥ 32.0 ng/mL and 2.00 [1.02–3.94] for 16.5–32.0 ng/mL compared to < 16.5 ng/mL, C-statistic = 0.729), NT-proBNP (HR 2.04 [1.90–4.55] for ≥ 337 ng/L and 1.48 [1.05–2.10] for 89–337 ng/L compared to < 89 ng/L, C-statistic = 0.741), and 15-year mortality in T2DM, whereas increased mortality was observed in patients with hs-cTnI ≥ 7.8 ng/L (HR 1.63 [1.01–2.62]). A ‘cardiac score’ based on the combination of sST2, hs-cTnI, and NT-proBNP was significantly associated with all-cause mortality (HR 1.35 [1.19–1.53], C-statistic = 0.739) and development of CV events.

Conclusions

sST2, hs-cTnI, and NT-proBNP are associated with 15-year mortality and onset of CV events in T2DM. The long-term prognostic value of sST2 and its ability to track variables related to insulin resistance and associated metabolic disorders support its implementation into routine clinical practice.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12933-022-01616-3.

Protein Biomarkers and Cardiovascular Outcomes in People With Type 2 Diabetes and Acute Coronary Syndrome: The ELIXA Biomarker Study

OBJECTIVE

To use protein biomarkers to identify people with type 2 diabetes at high risk of cardiovascular outcomes and death.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Biobanked serum from 4,957 ELIXA (Evaluation of Lixisenatide in Acute Coronary Syndrome) trial participants was analyzed. Forward-selection Cox models identified independent protein risk factors for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and death that were compared with a previously validated biomarker panel.

RESULTS

NT-proBNP and osteoprotegerin predicted both outcomes. In addition, trefoil factor 3 predicted MACE, and angiopoietin-2 predicted death (C = 0.70 and 0.79, respectively, compared with 0.63 and 0.66 for clinical variables alone). These proteins had all previously been identified and validated. Notably, C statistics for just NT-proBNP plus clinical risk factors were 0.69 and 0.78 for MACE and death, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

NT-proBNP and other proteins independently predict cardiovascular outcomes in people with type 2 diabetes following acute coronary syndrome. Adding other biomarkers only marginally increased NT-proBNP's prognostic value.

N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide predicts hospitalization for ischemic stroke in Japanese hemodialysis patients

BACKGROUND

The association between N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and stroke in Japanese hemodialysis (HD) outpatients is unclear. Therefore, in this study, we investigate whether high NT-proBNP levels are associated with future stroke events in this population.

METHODS

This was a multicenter prospective observational study with post hoc analysis. Baseline NT-proBNP levels were measured at the first HD session of the week and classified into tertiles (first tertile: < 2255 pg/mL; second tertile: ≥ 2255 and < 5657 pg/mL; third tertile: ≥ 5657 pg/mL). Overall hospitalization-free survival rates were compared using the Kaplan-Meier method. The association between NT-proBNP level and hospitalization for stroke was assessed using the multivariate Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

During a 5-year follow-up of 1,229 patients, 103 (8.4%) were hospitalized and 23 (1.9%) died from stroke. The hospitalization-free survival rate for ischemic stroke was lowest in the third tertile (P < 0.01). The crude hazard ratio (HR) of hospitalization was higher in the third tertile compared with the first tertile for both ischemic stroke (HR: 3.92; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.08-7.37; P < 0.01) and hemorrhagic stroke (HR: 3.75; 95% CI 1.35-10.43; P = 0.01). On multivariate Cox hazard analysis, the adjusted HRs for ischemic stroke were higher in the third tertile. The hospitalization-free survival rates for hemorrhagic stroke and the adjusted HRs did not differ significantly.

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated NT-proBNP level was associated with hospitalization for ischemic stroke, suggesting that NT-proBNP level is a valid biomarker for predicting hospitalization for ischemic stroke in HD outpatients.

Serum Levels of Irisin Predict Cumulative Clinical Outcomes in Heart Failure Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

Background: The aim of this study was to investigate the role of serum irisin level in predicting clinical outcome in heart failure (HF) patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

Methods: 153 T2DM patients with HF aged 41–62 years were prospectively recruited for the study. Serum levels of irisin and NT-proBNP were measured by ELISA. Laboratory tests including HbA1c, fasting glucose, blood creatinine, insulin, lipids and creatinine with estimation of GFR were performed along with echocardiography at baseline. The observation period was 56 weeks.

Results: We identified 76 composite cardiovascular (CV) outcomes, which included CV death and death from all causes, resuscitated cardiac death, non-fatal/fatal acute myocardial infarction or stroke, and HF hospitalization. Therefore, the entire patient cohort was divided into 2 groups with (n = 76) and without (n = 77) composite CV outcomes. We found that the concentrations of NT-proBNP were higher in HF patients with T2DM who had a CV composite outcome than in patients without CV composite outcome (p = 0.001). In contrast, the relationship was exactly reversed for irisin, as HF and T2DM patients with CV composite outcome had significantly lower irisin levels (p = 0.001). Unadjusted multivariate Cox regression analyses showed that LVEF &lt; 40%, LAVI &gt; 39 ml/m2, NT-proBNP &gt; 2,250 pmol/ml, and irisin &lt; 6.50 ng/ml were the strongest predictors of CV outcomes in HF patients with T2DM. After adjustment for LVEF, serum levels of NT-proBNP and irisin remained independent predictors of end points. Furthermore, divergence of Kaplan-Meier curves pointed out that patients with NT-proBNP &gt; 2,250 pmol/ml and irisin &lt; 6.50 ng/ml had worse prognosis than those with any other compartment of the bomarkers’ levels.

Conclusion: Adding irisin to NT-proBNP significantly improved discriminative value of the whole model. HF patients with T2DM had significantly worse clinical outcomes when showing the constellation NT-proBNP &gt; 2,250 pmol/ml and irisin &lt; 6.50 ng/ml, respectively, in comparison to patients with opposite trends for both biomarkers.

Performance of the Abbott Architect Immuno-Chemiluminometric NT-proBNP Assay

Background: We evaluated the performance of the Abbott N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) assay against the Roche NT-proBNP immunoassay across two sites. Methods: Precision, linearity, and sensitivity studies were performed. A combined method of comparison and regression analysis was performed between the Roche and Abbott assays using samples from both sites (n = 494). To verify biotin interference, lyophilised biotin powder was reconstituted and spiked into serum samples at two medical decision levels (final concentration 500/4250 ng/mL) and compared to controls. NT-proBNP was also measured in anonymised leftover sera (n = 388) in a cardio-renal healthy population and stratified into three age bands—<50 (n = 145), 50−75 (n = 183) and >75 (n = 60). Results: Between-run precision (CV%) for NT-proBNP was 4.17/4.50 (139.5/142.0 pg/mL), 3.83/2.17 (521.6/506.3), and 4.60/2.51 (5053/4973), respectively. The assay was linear from 0.7−41,501 pg/mL. The limit of blank/quantitation was 1.2/7.9 pg/mL. The assay showed no interference from biotin up to 4250 ng/mL. Passing−Bablok regression analysis showed excellent agreement between the two assays (r = 0.999, 95% CI 0.999 to 0.999, p < 0.0001). The Roche assay had a slightly persistent, negative bias across different levels of NT-proBNP. ESC age cut-offs for diagnosing acute heart failure are applicable for the Abbott assay, with the median NT-proBNP of subjects < 50 years old at 43.0 pg/mL (range 4.9−456 pg/mL), 50−75 years old at 95.1 pg/mL (range 10.5−1079 pg/mL), and >75 years old at 173.1 pg/mL (range 23.2−1948 pg/mL). Conclusions: The Abbott Architect NT-proBNP assay has good performance that agrees with the manufacturer’s specifications. ESC/AHA recommended NT-proBNP age groups for acute heart failure diagnosis are applicable to this assay.

NT-proBNP as a predictor of death and cardiovascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes

Existing risk prediction scores based on clinical and laboratory variables have been considered inaccurate in patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM). Circulating concentrations of natriuretic peptides have been used to aid in the diagnosis and to predict outcomes in heart failure. However, there is a growing body of evidence for the use of natriuretic peptides measurements, mainly N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), as a tool in risk stratification for individuals with T2DM. Studies have demonstrated the ability of NT-proBNP to improve outcomes prediction when incorporated into multivariate models. More recently, evidence has emerged of the discriminatory power of NT-proBNP, demonstrating, as a single variable, a similar and even superior ability to multivariate risk models for the prediction of death and cardiovascular events in individuals with T2DM. Natriuretic peptides are synthesized and released from the myocardium as a counter-regulatory response to increased cardiac wall stress, sympathetic tone, and vasoconstriction, acting on various systems and affecting different biological processes. In this article, we present a review of the accumulated knowledge about these biomarkers, underscoring the strength of the evidence of their predictive ability for fatal and non-fatal outcomes. It is likely that, by influencing the functioning of many organs, these biomarkers integrate information from different systems. Although not yet recommended by guidelines, measurement of natriuretic peptides, and particularly NT-proBNP, should be strongly considered in the risk stratification of individuals with T2DM.

Risk Estimates of Imminent Cardiovascular Death and Heart Failure Hospitalization Are Improved Using Serial Natriuretic Peptide Measurements in Patients With Coronary Artery Disease and Type 2 Diabetes

Background

Baseline and temporal changes in natriuretic peptide (NP) concentrations have strong prognostic value with regard to long‐term cardiovascular risk stratification. To increase the clinical utility of NP sampling for patient management, we wanted to assess the incremental predictive value of 2 serial NP measurements compared with a single measurement and provide absolute risk estimates for cardiovascular death or heart failure hospitalization (HFH) within 6 months based on 2 serial NP measurements.

Methods and Results

Consecutive NP samples obtained from 5393 patients with a recent coronary event and type 2 diabetes enrolled in the ELIXA (Evaluation of Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes After Acute Coronary Syndrome During Treatment With Lixisenatide) trial were used to construct best logistic regression models with outcome of cardiovascular death or HFH (136 events). Absolute risk estimates of cardiovascular death or HFH within 6 months using either BNP (B‐type natriuretic peptide) or NT‐proBNP (N‐terminal pro‐BNP) serial measurements were depicted based on the concentrations of 2 serial NP measurements. During the 6‐month follow‐up periods, the incidence rate (±95% CIs) of cardiovascular death or HFH for patients was 14.0 (11.8‒16.6) per 1000 patient‐years. Risk prediction depended on NP concentrations from both prior and current sampling. NP sampling 6 months apart improved the predictive value and reclassification of patients compared with a single sample (AUROC [Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve]: BNP, P=0.003. NT‐proBNP, P<0.0001), with a majority of moderate‐risk patients (6‐month risk between 1% and 10%) being reclassified on the basis of the second NP sample.

Conclusions

Serial NP measurements improved prediction of imminent cardiovascular death or HFH in patients with coronary artery disease and type 2 diabetes. The absolute risk estimates provided may aid clinicians in decision‐making and help patients understand their short‐term risk profile.

Assessment of the impact of different N terminal pro brain natriuretic peptide thresholds on echocardiography services

Aims

N terminal pro brain natriuretic peptide (NT‐proBNP) is considered a rule‐out test for patients with suspected heart failure. The NT‐proBNP thresholds recommended for echocardiography by the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) and National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) are based on small studies of patients with heart failure and left ventricular (LV) systolic dysfunction (LVSD). The purpose of our study was to examine the relation between NT‐proBNP and LVSD in a larger number of patients with symptoms suggestive of heart failure in a non‐acute setting.

Methods and results

One thousand patients with suspected chronic heart failure underwent echocardiography within 6 months of NT‐proBNP measurement. NT‐proBNP was the strongest predictor of any form of LVSD in univariate (OR 2.52, 95% CI 2.19–2.91, P value < 0.001) and multivariate (OR 2.73, 95% CI 2.32–3.21, P value < 0.001) analyses. Negative predictive value (NPV) of NT‐proBNP for impaired LV systolic function (ejection fraction 35–49%) was 98% at 125 pg/mL (the ESC threshold), 93% at 400 pg/mL (the NICE threshold), 91% at 1000 pg/mL and 90% at 2000 pg/mL. Corresponding values for severe LVSD (ejection fraction <35%) were 100%, 99%, 98% and 96%. The number of patients per 1000 with suspected chronic heart failure requiring echocardiography at each threshold was 851, 543, 324, and 182, respectively.

Conclusions

N terminal pro brain natriuretic peptide thresholds recommended by ESC and NICE result in large numbers of patients with suspected chronic heart failure being referred for echocardiography. Raising the NT‐proBNP threshold would improve access to echocardiography with minimal negative impact on the clinical performance of this cardiac biomarker.

Prognostic Significance of Preprocedural N-Terminal Pro-B-Type Natriuretic Peptide Assessment in Diabetic Patients With Multivessel Coronary Disease Undergoing Revascularization

Background and Aims: The N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) may predict adverse cardiovascular outcomes in patients with diabetes. However, its prognostic value in patients with multivessel disease (MVD) undergoing coronary revascularization remains unclear. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic significance of preprocedural NT-proBNP levels in diabetic patients with MVD undergoing coronary revascularization.

Methods: A total of 886 consecutive diabetic patients with MVD who underwent coronary revascularization were enrolled in this study. Patients were divided into quartiles according to their pre-procedural NT-proBNP levels. Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression analyses were performed to evaluate the risk of cardiovascular events, including all-cause death, cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), according to the NT-proBNP quartiles.

Results: During a median follow-up period of 4.2 years, 111 patients died (with 82 being caused by cardiovascular disease), 133 had MI, 55 suffered from stroke, and 250 experienced MACE. Kaplan-Meier curves demonstrated that NT-proBNP levels were significantly associated with higher incidences of all-cause death, cardiovascular death, MI, and MACE (log-rank test, P < 0.001, respectively). Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that NT-proBNP level was an independent predictor of adverse outcomes, including all-cause death (HR, 1.968; 95% CI, 1.377–2.812; P < 0.001), cardiovascular death (HR, 1.940; 95% CI, 1.278–2.945; P = 0.002), MI (HR, 1.722; 95% CI, 1.247–2.380; P = 0.001), and MACE (HR, 1.356; 95% CI, 1.066–1.725; P = 0.013). The role of NT-proBNP in predicting adverse outcomes was similar in patients with stable angina pectoris and acute coronary syndrome. Moreover, preprocedural NT-proBNP alone discriminated against the SYNTAX II score for predicting all-cause death [area under the curve (AUC), 0.662 vs. 0.626, P = 0.269], cardiovascular death (AUC, 0.680 vs. 0.622, P = 0.130), MI (AUC, 0.641 vs. 0.579, P = 0.050), and MACE (AUC, 0.593 vs. 0.559, P = 0.171). The addition of NT-proBNP to the SYNTAX II score showed a significant net reclassification improvement, integrated discrimination improvement, and improved C-statistic (all P < 0.05).

Conclusion: NT-proBNP levels were an independent prognostic marker for adverse outcomes in diabetic patients with MVD undergoing coronary revascularization, suggesting that preprocedural NT-proBNP measurement might help in the risk stratification of high-risk patients.

NT-proBNP versus routine clinical risk factors as a predictor of cardiovascular events or death in people with dysglycemia - A brief report from the ORIGIN trial

In patients with diabetes and cardiovascular or renal comorbidities, circulating levels of the N-terminal fragment of prohormone B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) have similar discriminatory ability as multivariate models for prediction of cardiovascular events or death. We validated this finding in patients with dysglycemia not selected for co-existing cardiorenal diseases.

Prognostic value of NT-proBNP in patients with chronic coronary syndrome and normal left ventricular systolic function according to glucose status: a prospective cohort study

Background

The prognostic value of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) with different glucose status has not been established. This study sought to evaluate the significance of NT-proBNP in predicting major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in patients with chronic coronary syndrome (CCS) and normal left-ventricular systolic function (LVSF) according to different glucose status, especially in those with abnormal glucose metabolism.

Methods

A total of 8062 patients with CCS and normal LVSF were consecutively enrolled in this prospective study. Baseline plasma NT-proBNP levels were measured. The follow-up data of all patients were collected. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses were used to assess the risk of MACEs according to NT-proBNP tertiles stratified by glucose status.

Results

Over an average follow-up of 59.13 ± 18.23 months, 569 patients (7.1 %) suffered from MACEs, including cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, and non-fatal stroke. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that high NT-proBNP levels had a significant association with MACEs in subjects with prediabetes mellitus (pre-DM) or DM, but not in patients with normoglycemia. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that NT-proBNP remained an independent predictor of MACEs in patients with pre-DM [hazard ratio (HR): 2.56, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.34–4.91] or DM (HR: 2.34, 95% CI: 1.32–4.16). Moreover, adding NT-proBNP to the original Cox model including traditional risk factors significantly increased the C-statistic by 0.035 in pre-DM and DM, respectively.

Conclusions

The present study indicated that NT-proBNP could well predict worse outcomes in dysglycemic patients with CCS and normal LVSF, suggesting that NT-proBNP may help with risk stratification in this population.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12933-021-01271-0.

Performance of the recommended ESC/EASD cardiovascular risk stratification model in comparison to SCORE and NT-proBNP as a single biomarker for risk prediction in type 2 diabetes mellitus

BACKGROUND

Recently, the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) and European Association for the Society of Diabetes (EASD) introduced a new cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk stratification model to aid further treatment decisions in individuals with diabetes. Our study aimed to investigate the prognostic performance of the ESC/EASD risk model in comparison to the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) risk model and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) in an unselected cohort of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

METHODS AND RESULTS

A total of 1690 T2DM patients with a 10-year follow up for fatal CVD and all-cause death and a 5-year follow up for CVD and all-cause hospitalizations were analyzed. According to ESC/EASD risk criteria 25 (1.5%) patients were classified as moderate, 252 (14.9%) high, 1125 (66.6%) very high risk and 288 (17.0%) were not classifiable. Both NT-proBNP and SCORE risk model were associated with 10-year CVD and all-cause death and 5-year CVD and all-cause hospitalizations while the ESC/EASD model was only associated with 10-year all-cause death and 5-year all-cause hospitalizations. NT-proBNP and SCORE showed significantly higher C-indices than the ESC/EASD risk model for CVD death [0.80 vs. 0.53, p < 0.001; 0.64 vs. 0.53, p = 0.001] and all-cause death [0.73, 0.66 vs. 0.52, p < 0.001 for both]. The performance of SCORE improved in a subgroup without CVD aged 40-64 years compared to the unselected cohort, while NT-proBNP performance was robust across all groups.

CONCLUSION

The new introduced ESC/EASD risk stratification model performed limited compared to SCORE and single NT-proBNP assessment for predicting 10-year CVD and all-cause fatal events in individuals with T2DM.

NT-proBNP by Itself Predicts Death and Cardiovascular Events in High-Risk Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

Background NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) improves the discriminatory ability of risk-prediction models in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) but is not yet used in clinical practice. We assessed the discriminatory strength of NT-proBNP by itself for death and cardiovascular events in high-risk patients with T2DM. Methods and Results Cox proportional hazards were used to create a base model formed by 20 variables. The discriminatory ability of the base model was compared with that of NT-proBNP alone and with NT-proBNP added, using C-statistics. We studied 5509 patients (with complete data) of 8561 patients with T2DM and cardiovascular and/or chronic kidney disease who were enrolled in the ALTITUDE (Aliskiren in Type 2 Diabetes Using Cardiorenal Endpoints) trial. During a median 2.6-year follow-up period, 469 patients died and 768 had a cardiovascular composite outcome (cardiovascular death, resuscitated cardiac arrest, nonfatal myocardial infarction, stroke, or heart failure hospitalization). NT-proBNP alone was as discriminatory as the base model for predicting death (C-statistic, 0.745 versus 0.744, P=0.95) and the cardiovascular composite outcome (C-statistic, 0.723 versus 0.731, P=0.37). When NT-proBNP was added, it increased the predictive ability of the base model for death (C-statistic, 0.779 versus 0.744, P<0.001) and for cardiovascular composite outcome (C-statistic, 0.763 versus 0.731, P<0.001). Conclusions In high-risk patients with T2DM, NT-proBNP by itself demonstrated discriminatory ability similar to a multivariable model in predicting both death and cardiovascular events and should be considered for risk stratification. Registration URL: https://www.clini​caltr​ials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT00549757.