Impact of deprivation on occurrence, outcomes and health care costs of people with multiple morbidity

The complex link between socioeconomic deprivation and COVID-19. Evidence from small areas of Catalonia

This ecological study assesses the association between the incidence rate of COVID-19 confirmed cases and socioeconomic deprivation in the Catalan small areas for the first six waves of the pandemic. The association is estimated using Poisson regressions and, in contrast to previous studies, considering that the relationship is not linear but rather depends on the degree of deprivation. The results show that the association between deprivation and incidence varied between waves, not only in intensity but also in its sign. Although it was insignificant in the first, third and fourth waves, the association was positive and significant in the second, becoming significantly negative in the fifth and sixth waves. Interestingly, the evidence suggests that the link between both magnitudes was not homogeneous throughout the distribution of deprivation, the pattern also varying between waves. The results are discussed in view of the role of non-pharmacological interventions and vaccination, as well as potential biases (for example that associated with differences between population groups in the propensity to be tested in each wave).

Socioeconomic Patterns in the Frequency of Doctor Visits in Germany and Spain in Subjects With and Without Chronic Diseases

The objective of universal health care systems is to achieve equality in the use of health services at the same level of care need. This study evaluates the relationship of socioeconomic position with the frequency of doctor visits in subjects with and without chronic diseases in Germany and Spain. The dependent variables included number of consultations and if a medical consultation occurred. The socioeconomic factors were income and education. The magnitude of the relationship between socioeconomic position and medical consultation frequency was estimated by calculating the percentage ratio using binomial regression and by calculating the difference in consultations by analysis of the covariance, in the case of number of visits. Statistically significant findings according to education were not observed. The percentage ratio in the medical consultations among those with lower and higher income was 1.03 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-2.88) in Germany and 1.11 (95% CI 1.03-1.20) in Spain among subjects with any of the studied chronic conditions. Also, in Germany the difference in the average number of consultations comparing lower income subjects with higher was 3.98 (95% CI 2.40-5.57) in those with chronic conditions. In both countries, there were no differences in the frequency of doctor visits according to education. However, a pro-inequality trend exists in favor of subjects with lower income.

Multimorbidity healthcare expenditure in Belgium: a 4-year analysis (COMORB study)

BACKGROUND

The complex management of health needs in multimorbid patients, alongside limited cost data, presents challenges in developing cost-effective patient-care pathways. We estimated the costs of managing 171 dyads and 969 triads in Belgium, taking into account the influence of morbidity interactions on costs.

METHODS

We followed a retrospective longitudinal study design, using the linked Belgian Health Interview Survey 2018 and the administrative claim database 2017-2020 hosted by the Intermutualistic Agency. We included people aged 15 and older, who had complete profiles (N = 9753). Applying a system costing perspective, the average annual direct cost per person per dyad/triad was presented in 2022 Euro and comprised mainly direct medical costs. We developed mixed models to analyse the impact of single chronic conditions, dyads and triads on healthcare costs, considering two-/three-way interactions within dyads/triads, key cost determinants and clustering at the household level.

RESULTS

People with multimorbidity constituted nearly half of the study population and their total healthcare cost constituted around three quarters of the healthcare cost of the study population. The most common dyad, arthropathies + dorsopathies, with a 14% prevalence rate, accounted for 11% of the total national health expenditure. The most frequent triad, arthropathies + dorsopathies + hypertension, with a 5% prevalence rate, contributed 5%. The average annual direct costs per person with dyad and triad were €3515 (95% CI 3093-3937) and €4592 (95% CI 3920-5264), respectively. Dyads and triads associated with cancer, diabetes, chronic fatigue, and genitourinary problems incurred the highest costs. In most cases, the cost associated with multimorbidity was lower or not substantially different from the combined cost of the same conditions observed in separate patients.

CONCLUSION

Prevalent morbidity combinations, rather than high-cost ones, made a greater contribution to total national health expenditure. Our study contributes to the sparse evidence on this topic globally and in Europe, with the aim of improving cost-effective care for patients with diverse needs.

Multimorbidity, Treatment, and Determinants among Chronic Patients Attending Primary Health Facilities in Tshwane, South Africa

The growing burden of non-communicable diseases amidst the largest burden of HIV in South Africa leads to disease combinations of multimorbidity with the complexity of care. We conducted a cross-sectional study to assess multimorbidity, medication adherence, and associated factors among out-patients with chronic diseases in primary health care (PHC) facilities in Tshwane, South Africa. A structured questionnaire was used to collect data on comorbidities and medication adherence, along with socio-demographic and lifestyle factors. Logistic regression models were used to analyse the determinants of multimorbidity and medication adherence. In all 400 patients with chronic diseases (mean age: 47 ± 12 years) living in poor environments, common chronic conditions were hypertension (62%), diabetes (45%), HIV (44%), TB (33%), hypercholesterolemia (18%), and gout (13%). The proportion of concordant comorbidity (i.e., diseases with similar risk profiles and management) was 72%, more than 28% of discordant comorbidity (i.e., diseases not related in pathogenesis or management). Most patients had two coexisting chronic conditions (75%), while few had more than two chronic conditions (23%) and single-occurring conditions (2%). Prevalence rates for common multimorbidity patterns were 25% (HIV and TB), 17% (hypertension and diabetes), 9% (hypertension, diabetes, and hypercholesterolemia), and 2% (hypertension diabetes and HIV), while medication adherence was estimated at 74%. In multivariate analysis, multimorbidity was associated with an older age and lower socio-economic status, while medication non-adherence was associated with a younger age and socio-economic factors. The study highlights the presence of multimorbidity among primary care patients attributed to hypertension, diabetes, HIV, and TB in South Africa with non-adherence to medication in one-third of patients. Policies are needed for education on multimorbidity with a need to optimize lifestyle modifications, perhaps proactive outreach or nursing contact with high-risk patients with public-health-sensitive conditions, such as HIV and/or TB, as well as patients with a history of non-adherence to medications. Considerations should be given to the development of a medication adherence scale for multiple chronic conditions beyond assessing adherence to a single index medication.

Socioeconomic gradient in mortality of working age and older adults with multiple long-term conditions in England and Ontario, Canada

BACKGROUND

There is currently mixed evidence on the influence of long-term conditions and deprivation on mortality. We aimed to explore whether number of long-term conditions contribute to socioeconomic inequalities in mortality, whether the influence of number of conditions on mortality is consistent across socioeconomic groups and whether these associations vary by working age (18-64 years) and older adults (65 + years). We provide a cross-jurisdiction comparison between England and Ontario, by replicating the analysis using comparable representative datasets.

METHODS

Participants were randomly selected from Clinical Practice Research Datalink in England and health administrative data in Ontario. They were followed from 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2019 or death or deregistration. Number of conditions was counted at baseline. Deprivation was measured according to the participant's area of residence. Cox regression models were used to estimate hazards of mortality by number of conditions, deprivation and their interaction, with adjustment for age and sex and stratified between working age and older adults in England (N = 599,487) and Ontario (N = 594,546).

FINDINGS

There is a deprivation gradient in mortality between those living in the most deprived areas compared to the least deprived areas in England and Ontario. Number of conditions at baseline was associated with increasing mortality. The association was stronger in working age compared with older adults respectively in England (HR = 1.60, 95% CI 1.56,1.64 and HR = 1.26, 95% CI 1.25,1.27) and Ontario (HR = 1.69, 95% CI 1.66,1.72 and HR = 1.39, 95% CI 1.38,1.40). Number of conditions moderated the socioeconomic gradient in mortality: a shallower gradient was seen for persons with more long-term conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

Number of conditions contributes to higher mortality rate and socioeconomic inequalities in mortality in England and Ontario. Current health care systems are fragmented and do not compensate for socioeconomic disadvantages, contributing to poor outcomes particularly for those managing multiple long-term conditions. Further work should identify how health systems can better support patients and clinicians who are working to prevent the development and improve the management of multiple long-term conditions, especially for individuals living in socioeconomically deprived areas.

A new era of HIV care for age-associated multimorbidity

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The management of people with HIV has shifted focus from acute AIDS-defining illness towards improving detection of chronic disease and reducing impact of multimorbidity. In this review, we explore this shifting paradigm of HIV care and the evidence for alternative models proposed to provide integrated holistic services for people with HIV (PWH) with multimorbidity.

RECENT FINDINGS

Despite 25 years of the antiretroviral treatment (ART) era an increased incidence of noncommunicable disease (NCD) and multimorbidity in PWH persists. As the world moves closer to universal ART coverage this phenomenon is now reported in low- and middle-income settings. Multimorbidity affects PWH disproportionately compared to the general population and results in reduced health related quality of life (HRQoL), greater hospitalization and higher mortality. There is evidence that NCD care provision and outcomes may be inferior for PWH than their HIV negative counterparts. Various models of integrated multimorbidity care have developed and are grouped into four categories; HIV specialist clinics incorporating NCD care, primary care services incorporating HIV care, community NCD clinics offering integrated HIV care, and multidisciplinary care integrated with HIV in secondary care. Evidence is limited as to the best way to provide multimorbidity care for PWH.

SUMMARY

A new era of HIV care for an ageing population with multimorbidity brings challenges for health providers who need to develop holistic patient focused services which span a range of coexisting conditions.

Incidence of postural hypotension recorded in UK general practice: an electronic health records study

BACKGROUND

Postural hypotension is a common condition associated with adverse outcomes in older adults. General practice plays an important role in identification of the condition.

AIM

To examine the incidence of postural hypotension between 2008 and 2018 in general practice and how trends vary by age, sex, year, and social deprivation.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Retrospective cohort study using electronic health records from the IQVIA Medical Research Data (IMRD) between 2008 and 2018.

METHOD

Patients were included if they were aged ≥50 years. Incident postural hypotension was identified as a new (first) recording of a postural hypotension code. Recording of incident postural hypotension was estimated per 10 000 person-years at risk (PYAR) according to age, sex, year, and social deprivation. Incident rate ratios were estimated by multivariable Poisson regression.

RESULTS

Of 2 911 260 patients, 24 973 had an electronic record indicating a new diagnosis of postural hypotension between 2008 and 2018. This was equivalent to 17.9 cases per 10 000 PYAR in males (95% confidence interval [CI] = 17.6 to 18.2) and 16.2 cases per 10 000 PYAR in females (95% CI = 15.9 to 16.5). A significant age-sex interaction was identified. Recorded postural hypotension rate increased with age and social deprivation, and reduced between 2008 and 2018. The rate was higher in males compared with females, particularly in older age groups (>80 years).

CONCLUSION

To the authors' knowledge, this is the first study to quantify incident recorded postural hypotension in general practice. The rate is lower than expected compared with studies in screened older populations. Potential barriers to identification include underreporting, underdetection owing to lack of time and/or poorly standardised methods of measurement, and poor coding. Future research should investigate current practice and approaches for increased detection such as education, practical methods of screening, and standardised measurement of postural blood pressure.

Identifying and visualising multimorbidity and comorbidity patterns in patients in the English National Health Service: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

Globally, there is a paucity of multimorbidity and comorbidity data, especially for minority ethnic groups and younger people. We estimated the frequency of common disease combinations and identified non-random disease associations for all ages in a multiethnic population.

METHODS

In this population-based study, we examined multimorbidity and comorbidity patterns stratified by ethnicity or race, sex, and age for 308 health conditions using electronic health records from individuals included on the Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked with the Hospital Episode Statistics admitted patient care dataset in England. We included individuals who were older than 1 year and who had been registered for at least 1 year in a participating general practice during the study period (between April 1, 2010, and March 31, 2015). We identified the most common combinations of conditions and comorbidities for index conditions. We defined comorbidity as the accumulation of additional conditions to an index condition over an individual's lifetime. We used network analysis to identify conditions that co-occurred more often than expected by chance. We developed online interactive tools to explore multimorbidity and comorbidity patterns overall and by subgroup based on ethnicity, sex, and age.

FINDINGS

We collected data for 3 872 451 eligible patients, of whom 1 955 700 (50·5%) were women and girls, 1 916 751 (49·5%) were men and boys, 2 666 234 (68·9%) were White, 155 435 (4·0%) were south Asian, and 98 815 (2·6%) were Black. We found that a higher proportion of boys aged 1-9 years (132 506 [47·8%] of 277 158) had two or more diagnosed conditions than did girls in the same age group (106 982 [40·3%] of 265 179), but more women and girls were diagnosed with multimorbidity than were boys aged 10 years and older and men (1 361 232 [80·5%] of 1 690 521 vs 1 161 308 [70·8%] of 1 639 593). White individuals (2 097 536 [78·7%] of 2 666 234) were more likely to be diagnosed with two or more conditions than were Black (59 339 [60·1%] of 98 815) or south Asian individuals (93 617 [60·2%] of 155 435). Depression commonly co-occurred with anxiety, migraine, obesity, atopic conditions, deafness, soft-tissue disorders, and gastrointestinal disorders across all subgroups. Heart failure often co-occurred with hypertension, atrial fibrillation, osteoarthritis, stable angina, myocardial infarction, chronic kidney disease, type 2 diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Spinal fractures were most strongly non-randomly associated with malignancy in Black individuals, but with osteoporosis in White individuals. Hypertension was most strongly associated with kidney disorders in those aged 20-29 years, but with dyslipidaemia, obesity, and type 2 diabetes in individuals aged 40 years and older. Breast cancer was associated with different comorbidities in individuals from different ethnic groups. Asthma was associated with different comorbidities between males and females. Bipolar disorder was associated with different comorbidities in younger age groups compared with older age groups.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings and interactive online tools are a resource for: patients and their clinicians, to prevent and detect comorbid conditions; research funders and policy makers, to redesign service provision, training priorities, and guideline development; and biomedical researchers and manufacturers of medicines, to provide leads for research into common or sequential pathways of disease and inform the design of clinical trials.

FUNDING

UK Research and Innovation, Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health and Care Research, Department of Health and Social Care, Wellcome Trust, British Heart Foundation, and The Alan Turing Institute.

Hospital costs associated with adverse events in people with diabetes in the UK

AIM

To estimate the annual hospital costs associated with a range of adverse events for people with diabetes in the UK.

METHODS

Annual hospital costs (2019/2020) were derived from 15 436 ASCEND participants from 2005 to 2017 (120 420 person-years). The annual hospital costs associated with cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization, transient ischaemic attack [TIA], ischaemic stroke, heart failure), bleeding (gastrointestinal [GI] bleed, intracranial haemorrhage, other major bleed), cancer (GI tract cancer, non-GI tract cancer), end-stage renal disease (ESRD), lower limb amputation and death (vascular, non-vascular) were estimated using a generalized linear model following adjustment for participants' sociodemographic and clinical factors.

RESULTS

In the year of event, ESRD was associated with the largest increase in annual hospital cost (£20 954), followed by lower limb amputation (£17 887), intracranial haemorrhage (£12 080), GI tract cancer (£10 160), coronary revascularization (£8531 if urgent; £8302 if non-urgent), heart failure (£8319), non-GI tract cancer (£7409), ischaemic stroke (£7170), GI bleed (£5557), myocardial infarction (£4913), other major bleed (£3825) and TIA (£1523). In subsequent years, most adverse events were associated with lasting but smaller increases in hospital costs, except for ESRD, where the additional cost remained high (£20 090).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study provides robust estimates of annual hospital costs associated with a range of adverse events in people with diabetes that can inform future cost-effectiveness analyses of diabetes interventions. It also highlights the potential cost savings that could be derived from prevention of these costly complications.

Cost of health inequality to the NHS in Wales

Background

Forty years from the seminal work of Welsh GP Julian Tudor Hart on the Inverse Care Law, inequalities in health and healthcare remain deeply embedded in Wales. There is a wider gap (over 17 years) in healthy life expectancy between people living in the most and least deprived neighborhoods in Wales. This health inequality is reflected in additional healthcare use. In this study we estimate the cost of inequality associated with this additional healthcare use to the publicly funded National Health Service (NHS) in Wales.

Methods

We retrieved administrative data on all NHS inpatient admissions, outpatient and accident and emergency attendances in Wales between April 2018 and March 2019 from Digital Health and Care Wales (DHCW). Hospital service use data were translated to costs using Healthcare Resource Group (HRG) and health service specific unit cost data and linked with area level mid-year population and deprivation indices in order to calculate the healthcare costs associated with socioeconomics deprivation.

Results

Inequality in healthcare use between people from more and less deprived neighborhoods was associated with an additional cost of £322 million per year to the NHS in Wales, accounting for 8.7% of total NHS hospital expenditure in the country. Emergency inpatient admissions made up by far the largest component of this additional cost contributing £247.4 million, 77% of the total. There are also substantial costs of inequality for A&E attendances and outpatient visits, though not maternity services. Elective admissions overall have a negative cost of inequality, since among men aged 50-75 and women aged 60-70, elective utilization is actually negatively associated with deprivation.

Conclusion

There are wide inequalities in health and healthcare use between people living in more deprived neighborhoods and those living in less deprived neighborhoods in Wales. Tackling health inequality through a combination of health promotion and early intervention policies targeted toward deprived communities could yield substantial improvement in health and wellbeing, as well as savings for the Welsh NHS through reduced use of emergency hospital care.

Classification of Deprivation Indices That Applied to Detect Health Inequality: A Scoping Review

INTRODUCTION

Many studies around the world are undertaken to establish the association between deprivation and public health indicators. Both separate indicators (e.g., income, education, occupation, public security and social support) and complex models (indices) include several indicators. Deprivation indices are actively used in public health since the mid 1980s. There is currently no clear classification of indices.

METHODS

In the current review, data related to deprivation indices are combined and analyzed in order to create a taxonomy of indices based on the results obtained. The search was carried out using two bibliographic databases. After conducting a full-text review of the articles and searching and adding relevant articles from the bibliography, and articles that were already known to the authors, sixty studies describing the use of sixty deprivation indices in seventeen countries were included in the narrative synthesis, resulting in development of a taxonomy of indices. When creating the taxonomy, an integrative approach was used that allows integrating new classes and sub-classes in the event that new information appears.

RESULTS

In the review, 68% (41/60) of indices were classified as socio-economic, 7% (4/60) of indices as material deprivation, 5% (3/60) of indices as environmental deprivation and 20% (12/60) as multidimensional indices.

CONCLUSIONS

The data stimulates the use of a competent approach, and will help researchers and public health specialist in resolving conflicts or inconsistencies that arise during the construction and use of indices.

Do socioeconomic factors impact management of suspected canine multicentric lymphoma in UK first opinion practice?

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to describe the management of cases of suspected and confirmed canine multicentric lymphoma (ML) in first opinion practice (FOP) and investigate whether socioeconomic factors are associated with initial management.

METHODS

Clinical narratives from electronic health records collected by the Small Animal Veterinary Surveillance Network (SAVSNET) were searched to identify dogs with peripheral lymphadenomegaly in which ML was the major differential. Cases were grouped as either ML confirmed (ML-C) or ML suspected but not confirmed (ML-S). Associations between initial management and socioeconomic factors were assessed via multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

Two hundred and sixty-four cases with ML-C and 410 with ML-S were identified. There was an increased probability that owners of ML-C cases resided in less deprived areas. Moreover, a diagnosis was made more commonly in insured dogs. Only insured pets were more likely to be treated with chemotherapy following diagnosis. The majority of dogs in both groups were treated with corticosteroids alone (ML-S, n = 256/410; ML-C, n = 123/264). A small minority were referred (n = 30/674).

CONCLUSION

Socioeconomic inequalities appear to be associated with the diagnosis and management of dogs with suspected or confirmed ML in FOP. Most dogs with suspected multicentric lymphoma (in the UK) are managed in FOP (n = 644/674). Consequently, expanding the knowledge base relevant to this setting offers an opportunity to improve the management of canine lymphoma.

Profiles of social, cultural, and economic capital as longitudinal predictors of stress, positive experiences of caring, and depression among spousal carers of people with dementia

OBJECTIVE

We explored (1) social, cultural, and economic capital in spousal carers of people with dementia; (2) profiles of carers with different levels of capital; (3) whether the identified profiles differ in levels of stress and positive experiences of caring, and likelihood of depression over time.

METHODS

Baseline (2014-2016), 12-month, and 24-month follow-up data were analyzed for 984 coresident spousal carers of people with dementia. We assessed social, cultural, and economic capital, stress, positive experiences of caring, depression.

RESULTS

On average, carers reported infrequent social and cultural participation. Most carers were not socially isolated, trusted their neighbours, had education at least to age 16, and had an income aligned with the 2014 UK average. We identified four groups of carers with different levels of capital. Although on average stress was low, depression was infrequent, and positive experiences of caring were moderately frequent, the group of carers with lowest capital was the least stressed and reported the most positive experiences of caring over time. Compared to the two groups with better capital, those with poorer capital were more likely to be depressed over time.

CONCLUSION

Social, cultural, and economic resources may decrease likelihood of depression, but not stress, in carers of people with dementia.

Multimorbidity is associated with the income, education, employment and health domains of area-level deprivation in adult residents in the UK

Evidence suggests that there are social inequalities in multimorbidity, with a recent review indicating that area levels of deprivation are consistently associated with greater levels of multimorbidity. Definitions of multimorbidity, the most common of which is the co-occurrence of more than one long term condition, can include long term physical conditions, mental health conditions or both. The most commonly used measure of deprivation in England and Wales is the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD), an index of seven different deprivation domains. It is unclear which features of IMD may be mediating associations with multimorbidity. Thus, there may be associations because of the individual characteristics of those living in deprived areas, characteristics of the areas themselves or overlap in definitions. Data from over 25,000 participants (aged 16+) of Understanding Society (Wave 10, 1/2018–3/2020) were used to understand the most salient features of multimorbidity associated with IMD and whether physical or mental conditions are differentially associated with the seven domains of IMD. 24% of participants report multimorbidity. There is an increased prevalence of multimorbidity composed of only long-term physical conditions in the most deprived decile of deprivation (22%, 95% CI[19,25]) compared to the least deprived decile (16%, 95% CI[14,18]). Mental health symptoms but not reporting of conditions vary by decile of IMD. Associations with multimorbidity are limited to the health, income, education and employment domains of IMD. We conclude that multimorbidity represents a substantial population burden, particularly in the most deprived areas in England and Wales.

Inequalities in developing multimorbidity over time: A population-based cohort study from an urban, multi-ethnic borough in the United Kingdom

Background

Social and material deprivation accelerate the development of multimorbidity, yet the mechanisms which drive multimorbidity pathways and trajectories remain unclear. We aimed to examine the association between health inequality, risk factors and accumulation or resolution of LTCs, taking disease sequences into consideration.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort of adults aged 18 years and over, registered between April 2005 and May 2020 in general practices in one inner London borough (n = 826,936). Thirty-two long term conditions (LTCs) were selected using a consensus process, based on a definition adapted to the demographic characteristics of the local population. sThe development and resolution of these LTCs were examined according to sociodemographic and clinical risk factors (hypertension; moderate obesity (BMI 30·0-39·9 kg/m2), high cholesterol (total cholesterol > 5 mmol/L), smoking, high alcohol consumption (>14 units per week), and psychoactive substance use), through the application of multistate Markov chain models.

Findings

Participants were followed up for a median of 4.2 years (IQR = 1·8 - 8·4); 631,760 (76%) entered the study with no LTCs, 121,424 (15%) with 1 LTC, 41,720 (5%) with 2 LTCs, and 31,966 (4%) with three or more LTCs. At the end of follow-up, 194,777 (24%) gained one or more LTCs, while 45,017 (5%) had resolved LTCs and 27,021 (3%) died. In multistate models, deprivation (hazard ratio [HR] between 1·30 to 1·64), female sex (HR 1·13 to 1·20), and Black ethnicity (HR 1·20 to 1·30; vs White) were independently associated with increased risk of transition from one to two LTCs, and shorter time spent in a healthy state. Substance use was the strongest risk factor for multimorbidity with an 85% probability of gaining LTCs over the next year. First order Markov chains identified consistent disease sequences including: chronic pain or osteoarthritis followed by anxiety and depression; alcohol and substance dependency followed by HIV, viral hepatitis, and liver disease; and morbid obesity followed by diabetes, hypertension, and chronic pain.

Interpretation

We examined the relations among 32 LTCs, taking the order of disease occurrence into consideration. Distinctive patterns for the development and accumulation of multimorbidity have emerged, with increased risk of transitioning from no conditions to multimorbidity and mortality related to ethnicity, deprivation and gender. Musculoskeletal disorders, morbid obesity and substance abuse represent common entry points to multimorbidity trajectories.

Sociodemographic predictors of attendance at a Scottish pain management programme

We examined relationships between various sociodemographic factors and attendance at the Glasgow Pain Management Programme (n = 2899 from 2011 to 2019). We tested for associations between gender, age and socioeconomic deprivation of patients who were invited to attend, and uptake to a programme when invited, attendance at screening assessment, eligibility, adherence and attendance at 3- and 6-month reviews. Uptake was significantly higher for patients from more affluent areas (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.93–0.99, p = 0.002) and for older patients (95% CI = 0.98–0.99, p = 0.006), although effect sizes were very small. Patients were significantly more likely to be assessed as suitable if they were younger (95% CI = 0.98–0.99, p = 0.013) or female (95% CI = 0.55–0.84, p < 0.001). Attendance at sessions and at 3- and 6-month reviews was higher for patients from more affluent areas (95% CI = 1–1.09, p = 0.001, and 95% CI = 1–1.1, p = 0.044 respectively). We argue that there are multiple potential explanations for these findings and that future work should attempt to determine whether these patterns replicate in other populations and to determine any modifiable causes.

Identifying longitudinal clusters of multimorbidity in an urban setting: A population-based cross-sectional study

Background

Globally, there is increasing research on clusters of multimorbidity, but few studies have investigated multimorbidity in urban contexts characterised by a young, multi-ethnic, deprived populations. This study identified clusters of associative multimorbidity in an urban setting.

Methods

This is a population-based retrospective cross-sectional study using electronic health records of all adults aged 18 years and over, registered between April 2005 to May 2020 in general practices in one inner London borough. Multiple correspondence analysis and cluster analysis was used to identify groups of multimorbidity from 32 long-term conditions (LTCs).

Results

The population included 41 general practices with 826,936 patients registered between 2005 and 2020, with mean age 40 (SD15·6) years. The prevalence of multimorbidity was 21% (n = 174,881), with the median number of conditions being three and increasing with age. Analysis identified five consistent LTC clusters: 1) anxiety and depression (Ratio of within- to between- sum of squares (WSS/BSS <0·01 to <0·01); 2) heart failure, atrial fibrillation, chronic kidney disease (CKD), chronic heart disease (CHD), stroke/transient ischaemic attack (TIA), peripheral arterial disease (PAD), dementia and osteoporosis (WSS/BSS 0·09 to 0·12); 3) osteoarthritis, cancer, chronic pain, hypertension and diabetes (0·05 to 0·06); 4) chronic liver disease and viral hepatitis (WSS/BSS 0·02 to 0·03); 5) substance dependency, alcohol dependency and HIV (WSS/BSS 0·37 to 0·55).

Interpretation

Mental health problems, pain, and at-risk behaviours leading to cardiovascular diseases are the important clusters identified in this young, urban population.

Funding

Impact on Urban Health, United Kingdom.

Depression as a Risk Factor for Physical Illness and Multimorbidity in a Cohort with No Prior Comorbidity

OBJECTIVE

This study examines whether depression is associated with the development of physical illness and multimorbidity, after controlling for socioeconomic, behavioral, and other potential confounders.

METHODS

This is a retrospective cohort study in which adult respondents to three nationally representative population health surveys were linked to health administrative databases in Ontario, Canada, and followed for 10 years from survey index. Respondents with any of the study outcome conditions at baseline were excluded to create a final cohort of 29,838 participants. The main exposure of interest was depression, measured using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview-Short Form for Major Depression. We controlled for age, body mass index, marital status, immigrant status, annual household income, smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, health status, and having a regular doctor. The outcome measure was the development of physical illness over 10 years of follow-up, defined as 1 of 15 common chronic conditions using administrative data.

RESULTS

Among the 29,838 participants (15,259 [51%] female), 8% of females and 4% of males had depression at baseline. In this cohort with no comorbidities at baseline, even in the fully adjusted model, depression increased the risk of developing a first physical illness for females (hazard ratio [HR] 1.16; 95% CI, 1.07 to 1.26) and males (HR 1.20; 95% CI, 1.07 to 1.36) and increased the risk of developing a second physical illness for females (HR 1.16; 95% CI, 1.02 to 1.33) over 10 years of follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

For individuals with no prior comorbidities, depression is associated with a greater risk of developing subsequent physical illness and multimorbidity over time. Thus, depression identifies a population of people who may benefit from early identification, additional screening, and intervention. Further study needs to be done to determine whether interventions to manage and support people with depression can prevent or delay the increased risk of multimorbidity.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of effect of vitamin D levels on the incidence of COVID-19

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a disease primarily affecting the respiratory tract, however due to the nature of the pathogenesis it is able to affect the whole body. So far, no causative treatment has been found and the main strategy when dealing with COVID-19 relies on widespread vaccination programs and symptomatic treatment. Vitamin D due to its ability to modulate the immunological system has been proposed as a factor playing role in the organism response to the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. Therefore, we decided to perform this meta-analysis which aimed to establish a connection between vitamin D status and COVID-19 infection.

METHODS

Study was designed as a systematic review and meta-analysis. PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, Cochrane Collaboration Databases and Scopus electronic databases were searched for relevant studies from database inception to May 10th, 2021. Mean differences (MDs) with their 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated.

RESULTS

Thirteen studies providing data for 14,485 participants met the inclusion criteria. Mean vitamin D levels in SARS-CoV-2 negative patients was 17.7 ± 6.9 ng/mL compared to SARS-CoV-2 positive patients 14.1 ± 8.2 ng/mL (MD = 3.93; 95% CI 2.84-5.02; I2 = 99%; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Low serum vitamin D levels are statistically significantly associated with the risk of COVID-19 infection. Supplementation of vitamin D especially in the deficiency risk groups is indicated.

Area-level deprivation and geographic factors influencing utilisation of General Practitioner services

Inequities in access to General Practitioner (GP) services are a key policy concern given the role of GPs as gatekeepers to secondary care services. Geographic or area-level factors, including local deprivation and supply of healthcare providers, are important elements of access. In considering how area-level deprivation relates to GP utilisation, two potentially opposing factors may be important. The supply of healthcare services tends to be lower in areas of higher deprivation. However, poorer health status among individuals in deprived areas suggests greater need for healthcare. To explore the relationship of area-level deprivation to healthcare utilisation, we use data from the Healthy Ireland survey, which provided a sample of 6326 respondents to face-to-face interviews.

A u-shaped relationship between GP supply and area-level deprivation is observed in the data. Modelling reveals that residing in more deprived communities has a strong, statistically significant positive association with having seen a GP within the last four weeks, controlling for individual characteristics and GP supply. All else equal, residing in an area ranked in the most deprived quintile increases the odds of a respondent having visited the GP in four weeks by 1.43 (95% Confidence Interval: 1.15–1.78), compared to the least deprived quintile (p-value< 0.001). The findings indicate that the level of deprivation in an area may be relevant to decisions about how to allocate primary care resources.

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GP utilisation is higher amongst those in more deprived areas.

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GP supply is lower in middle income areas compared to deprived or affluent areas.

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Differences in GP supply and GP utilisation occur across deprivation quintiles.

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Other geographic factors are not found to be significant in determining GP utilisation.

Trends and equity in the use of health services in Spain and Germany around austerity in Europe

Background

Following the 2008 economic crisis many countries implemented austerity policies, including reducing public spending on health services. This paper evaluates the trends and equity in the use of health services during and after that period in Spain – a country with austerity policies – and in Germany – a country without restriction on healthcare spending.

Methods

Data from several National Surveys in Spain and several waves of the Socio-Economic Panel in Germany, carried out between 2009 and 2017, were used. The dependent variables were number of doctor’s consultations and whether or not a hospital admission occurred. The measure of socioeconomic position was education. In each year, the estimates were made for people with and without pre-existing health problems. First, the average number of doctor’s consultations and the percentage of respondents who had had been hospitalized were calculated. Second, the relationship between education and use of those health services was estimated by calculating the difference in consultations using covariance analysis – in the case of number of consultations – and by calculating the percentage ratio using binomial regression – in the case of hospitalization.

Results

The annual mean number of consultations went down in both countries. In Spain the average was 14.2 in 2009 and 10.4 in 2017 for patients with chronic conditions; 16.6 and 13.5 for those with a mental illness; and 6.4 and 5.9 for those without a defined illness. In Germany, the averages were 13.8 (2009) and 12.9 (2017) for the chronic group; 21.1 and 17.0 for mental illness; and 8.7 and 7.5 with no defined illness. The hospitalization frequency also decreased in both countries. The majority of the analyses presented no significant differences in relation to education.

Conclusion

In both Spain and Germany, service use decreased between 2009 and 2017. In the first few years, this reduction coincided with a period of austerity in Spain. In general, we did not find socioeconomic differences in health service use.

The Effect of Participation in Tier 3 Services on the Uptake of Bariatric Surgery

Background

Despite the recognised advantages of bariatric and metabolic surgery, only a small proportion of patients receive this intervention. In the UK, weight management systems are divided into four tiers. Tier 3 is a clinician-lead weight loss service while tier 4 considers surgery. While there is little evidence that tier 3 has any long-term benefits for weight loss, this study aims to determine whether tier 3 improves the uptake of surgery.

Method

A retrospective cohort study of all referrals to our unit between 2013 and 2016 was categorised according to source—tier 3, directly from the general practitioner (GP) or from another speciality. The likelihood of surgery was calculated using a regression model after considering patient demographics, comorbidities and distance from our hospital.

Results

Of the 399 patients, 69.2% were referred directly from the GP, 21.3% from tier 3, and 9.5% from another speciality of which 69.4%, 56.2%, and 36.8% progressed to surgery (p = 0.01). On regression analysis, patients from another speciality or GP were more likely to decide against surgery (OR 2.44 CI 1.13–6.80 p = 0.03 and OR 1.65 CI 1.10–3.12 p = 0.04 respectively) and more likely to be deemed not suitable for surgery by the MDT (OR 6.42 CI 1.25–33.1 p = 0.02 and OR 3.47 CI 1.11–12.9 p = 0.03) compared with tier 3 referrals.

Conclusion

As patients from tier 3 were more likely to undergo bariatric and metabolic surgery, this intervention remains a relevant step in the pathway. Such patients are likely to be better informed about the benefits of surgery and risks of severe obesity.

Does socio-economic status influence the effect of multimorbidity on the frequent use of ambulatory care services in a universal healthcare system? A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Frequent healthcare users place a significant burden on health systems. Factors such as multimorbidity and low socioeconomic status have been associated with high use of ambulatory care services (emergency rooms, general practitioners and specialist physicians). However, the combined effect of these two factors remains poorly understood. Our goal was to determine whether the risk of being a frequent user of ambulatory care is influenced by an interaction between multimorbidity and socioeconomic status, in an entire population covered by a universal health system.

METHODS

Using a linkage of administrative databases, we conducted a population-based cohort study of all adults in Quebec, Canada. Multimorbidity (defined as the number of different diseases) was assessed over a two-year period from April 1st 2012 to March 31st 2014 and socioeconomic status was estimated using a validated material deprivation index. Frequents users for a particular category of ambulatory services had a number of visits among the highest 5% in the total population during the 2014-15 fiscal year. We used ajusted logistic regressions to model the association between frequent use of health services and multimorbidity, depending on socioeconomic status.

RESULTS

Frequent users (5.1% of the population) were responsible for 25.2% of all ambulatory care visits. The lower the socioeconomic status, the higher the burden of chronic diseases, and the more frequent the visits to emergency departments and general practitioners. Socioeconomic status modified the association between multimorbidity and frequent visits to specialist physicians: those with low socioeconomic status visited specialist physicians less often. The difference in adjusted proportions of frequent use between the most deprived and the least deprived individuals varied from 0.1% for those without any chronic disease to 5.1% for those with four or more chronic diseases. No such differences in proportions were observed for frequent visits to an emergency room or frequent visits to a general practitioner.

CONCLUSION

Even in a universal healthcare system, the gap between socioeconomic groups widens as a function of multimorbidity with regard to visits to the specialist physicians. Further studies are needed to better understand the differential use of specialized care by the most deprived individuals.

Household and area-level social determinants of multimorbidity: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

No clear synthesis of evidence examining household and area-level social determinants of multimorbidity exists. This study aimed to systematically review the existing literature on associations between household and area-level social determinants of health (SDoH) and multimorbidity prevalence or incidence in the general population.

METHODS

Six databases (MedLine, EMBASE, PsychINFO, Web of Science, CINAHL Plus and Scopus) were searched. The search was limited to peer-reviewed studies conducted in high-income countries and published in English between 2010 and 2019. A second reviewer screened all titles with abstracts and a subset of full texts. Study quality was assessed and protocol pre-registered (CRD42019135281).

RESULTS

41 studies spanning North America, Europe and Australasia were included. Household income and area-level deprivation were the most explored with fairly consistent findings. The odds of multimorbidity were up to 4.4 times higher for participants with the lowest level of income compared with the highest level. Those living in the most deprived areas had the highest prevalence or incidence of multimorbidity (pooled OR 1.42, 95% CI 1.41 to 1.42). Associations between deprivation and multimorbidity differed by age and multimorbidity type. Findings from the few studies investigating household tenure, household composition and area-level rurality were mixed and contradictory; homeownership and rurality were associated with increased and decreased multimorbidity, while living alone was found to be associated with a higher risk of multimorbidity and not associated.

CONCLUSION

Improving our understanding of broader social determinants of multimorbidity-particularly at the household level-could help inform strategies to tackle multimorbidity.

Does socioeconomic status affect hospital utilization and health outcomes of chronic disease patients?

This study quantifies the extent socioeconomic status (SES) affects hospital utilization and adverse hospital events of chronic disease patients. After identifying the initial first-year spell of the disease, we examine six outcomes that include measures of utilization and incidence of adverse in-hospital events. Three years of hospital administrative data from the state of Victoria, Australia, are used to extract a sample of 237,743 patients with chronic disease spells. SES is measured using the utilization records of specific health and human services. The study finds that, compared to patients with no disadvantage, SES disadvantaged patients tend to incur higher hospital costs and longer utilization by about 20% and greater incidence of in-hospital adverse outcomes by up to 80% than non-disadvantaged patients. Further analysis shows that hospital adverse outcomes indirectly contribute to about a quarter of the observed difference in hospital costs between SES disadvantaged and non-disadvantaged patients.

Ethnic and demographic variation in consenting for research in the context of fertility treatment

A retrospective service evaluation was conducted in a tertiary fertility clinic to assess factors influencing the inclinations of individuals to consent for their information to be used for research (non-contact research) and their willingness to be contacted for future research studies (contact research). Self-reported data on ethnicity and country of birth were obtained from the HFEA registration forms of 18,384 patients undergoing fertility treatment. Socio-economic deprivation was assessed using the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) determined by postcode. Analysis of data indicated that 24% were of non-white ethnicity, 32% had been born overseas and 46% resided in more deprived areas. Non-white patients were significantly less likely to consent to research than white patients (contact research: aOR 0.36, 95% CI 0.33 to 0.39; non-contact research: aOR 0.35, 95% CI 0.32 to 0.38), as were patients born overseas (contact research: aOR 0.86, 95% CI 0.79 to 0.94; non-contact research: aOR 0.89, 95% CI 0.82 to 0.97), and those living in more deprived areas (contact research: aOR 0.85, 95% CI 0.80 to 0.91; non-contact research: aOR 0.79, 95% CI 0.74 to 0.85). The findings indicate that ethnicity, country of birth and socio-economic factors are independently associated with willingness to participate in research.

Impact of multimorbidity on healthcare costs and utilisation: a systematic review of the UK literature

BACKGROUND

Managing multimorbidity is complex for both patients and healthcare systems. Patients with multimorbidity often use a variety of primary and secondary care services. Country-specific research exploring the healthcare utilisation and cost consequences of multimorbidity may inform future interventions and payment schemes in the UK.

AIM

To assess the relationship between multimorbidity, healthcare costs, and healthcare utilisation; and to determine how this relationship varies by disease combinations and healthcare components.

DESIGN AND SETTING

A systematic review.

METHOD

This systematic review followed the bidirectional citation searching to completion method. MEDLINE and grey literature were searched for UK studies since 2004. An iterative review of references and citations was completed. Authors from all articles selected were contacted and asked to check for completeness of UK evidence. The National Institutes of Health National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute quality assessment tool was used to assess risk of bias. Data were extracted, findings synthesised, and study heterogeneity assessed; meta-analysis was conducted when possible.

RESULTS

Seventeen studies were identified: seven predicting healthcare costs and 10 healthcare utilisation. Multimorbidity was found to be associated with increased total costs, hospital costs, care transition costs, primary care use, dental care use, emergency department use, and hospitalisations. Several studies demonstrated the high cost of depression and of hospitalisation associated with multimorbidity.

CONCLUSION

In the UK, multimorbidity increases healthcare utilisation and costs of primary, secondary, and dental care. Future research is needed to examine whether integrated care schemes offer efficiencies in healthcare provision for multimorbidity.

Electronically delivered interventions to reduce antibiotic prescribing for respiratory infections in primary care: cluster RCT using electronic health records and cohort study

BACKGROUND

Unnecessary prescribing of antibiotics in primary care is contributing to the emergence of antimicrobial drug resistance.

OBJECTIVES

To develop and evaluate a multicomponent intervention for antimicrobial stewardship in primary care, and to evaluate the safety of reducing antibiotic prescribing for self-limiting respiratory infections (RTIs).

INTERVENTIONS

A multicomponent intervention, developed as part of this study, including a webinar, monthly reports of general practice-specific data for antibiotic prescribing and decision support tools to inform appropriate antibiotic prescribing.

DESIGN

A parallel-group, cluster randomised controlled trial.

SETTING

The trial was conducted in 79 general practices in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD).

PARTICIPANTS

All registered patients were included.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was the rate of antibiotic prescriptions for self-limiting RTIs over the 12-month intervention period.

COHORT STUDY

A separate population-based cohort study was conducted in 610 CPRD general practices that were not exposed to the trial interventions. Data were analysed to evaluate safety outcomes for registered patients with 45.5 million person-years of follow-up from 2005 to 2014.

RESULTS

There were 41 intervention trial arm practices (323,155 patient-years) and 38 control trial arm practices (259,520 patient-years). There were 98.7 antibiotic prescriptions for RTIs per 1000 patient-years in the intervention trial arm (31,907 antibiotic prescriptions) and 107.6 per 1000 patient-years in the control arm (27,923 antibiotic prescriptions) [adjusted antibiotic-prescribing rate ratio (RR) 0.88, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.78 to 0.99; p = 0.040]. There was no evidence of effect in children aged < 15 years (RR 0.96, 95% CI 0.82 to 1.12) or adults aged ≥ 85 years (RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.79 to 1.18). Antibiotic prescribing was reduced in adults aged between 15 and 84 years (RR 0.84, 95% CI 0.75 to 0.95), that is, one antibiotic prescription was avoided for every 62 patients (95% CI 40 to 200 patients) aged 15-84 years per year. Analysis of trial data for 12 safety outcomes, including pneumonia and peritonsillar abscess, showed no evidence that these outcomes might be increased as a result of the intervention. The analysis of data from non-trial practices showed that if a general practice with an average list size of 7000 patients reduces the proportion of RTI consultations with antibiotics prescribed by 10%, then 1.1 (95% CI 0.6 to 1.5) more cases of pneumonia per year and 0.9 (95% CI 0.5 to 1.3) more cases of peritonsillar abscesses per decade may be observed. There was no evidence that mastoiditis, empyema, meningitis, intracranial abscess or Lemierre syndrome were more frequent at low-prescribing practices.

LIMITATIONS

The research was based on electronic health records that may not always provide complete data. The number of practices included in the trial was smaller than initially intended.

CONCLUSIONS

This study found evidence that, overall, general practice antibiotic prescribing for RTIs was reduced by this electronically delivered intervention. Antibiotic prescribing rates were reduced for adults aged 15-84 years, but not for children or the senior elderly.

FUTURE WORK

Strategies for antimicrobial stewardship should employ stratified interventions that are tailored to specific age groups. Further research into the safety of reduced antibiotic prescribing is also needed.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN95232781.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 23, No. 11. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Potentially inappropriate medication and associated factors such as depression and dementia: An analysis of middle-aged and elderly people

AIMS: To establish the frequency potentially inappropriate medications use and the associated factors, such as signs and symptoms of depression and cognitive deficit among middle-aged and elderly people.METHODS: A cross-sectional population study was performed with 2,350 people, aged between 55-103 years, registered in the primary health care. Potentially inappropriate medications were defined by updated 2019 Beers criteria. Studied variables were sociodemographic, lifestyle and health, and signs and symptoms of depression and cognitive deficit. Multinomial regression analysis was executed.RESULTS: The frequency of potentially inappropriate medications use was 65.4%. Former and current smokers, regular self-perception of health, polypharmacy, and individuals with signs and symptoms of depression and cognitive deficit were significantly associated with potentially inappropriate medications use. Antiarrhythmics, antihistamines and antiadrenergic agents were the highest potentially inappropriate medications classes used for individuals with signs and symptoms of depression and cognitive deficit.CONCLUSIONS: The frequency of use of potentially inappropriate medications is high among middle-aged people, a population that was previously under-researched, as well as among elderly people. Cognitive impairment alone or together with depression symptoms were associated factor for a potentially inappropriate medications use. Knowledge of the pharmacoepidemiology of potentially inappropriate medications is an important for the promotion of the rational use of drugs in public health.

Can cluster analyses of linked healthcare data identify unique population segments in a general practice-registered population?

BACKGROUND

Population segmentation is useful for understanding the health needs of populations. Expert-driven segmentation is a traditional approach which involves subjective decisions on how to segment data, with no agreed best practice. The limitations of this approach are theoretically overcome by more data-driven approaches such as utilisation-based cluster analysis. Previous explorations of using utilisation-based cluster analysis for segmentation have demonstrated feasibility but were limited in potential usefulness for local service planning. This study explores the potential for practical application of using utilisation-based cluster analyses to segment a local General Practice-registered population in the South Wales Valleys.

METHODS

Primary and secondary care datasets were linked to create a database of 79,607 patients including socio-demographic variables, morbidities, care utilisation, cost and risk factor information. We undertook utilisation-based cluster analysis, using k-means methodology to group the population into segments with distinct healthcare utilisation patterns based on seven utilisation variables: elective inpatient admissions, non-elective inpatient admissions, outpatient first & follow-up attendances, Emergency Department visits, GP practice visits and prescriptions. We analysed segments post-hoc to understand their morbidity, risk and demographic profiles.

RESULTS

Ten population segments were identified which had distinct profiles of healthcare use, morbidity, demographic characteristics and risk attributes. Although half of the study population were in segments characterised as 'low need' populations, there was heterogeneity in this group with respect to variables relevant to service planning - e.g. settings in which care was mostly consumed. Significant and complex healthcare need was a feature across age groups and was driven more by deprivation and behavioural risk factors than by age and functional limitation.

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis shows that utilisation-based cluster analysis of linked primary and secondary healthcare use data for a local GP-registered population can segment the population into distinct groups with unique health and care needs, providing useful intelligence to inform local population health service planning and care delivery. This segmentation approach can offer a detailed understanding of the health and care priorities of population groups, potentially supporting the integration of health and care, reducing fragmentation of healthcare and reducing healthcare costs in the population.

Health and social care costs at the end of life: a matched analysis of linked patient records in East London

BACKGROUND

care in the final year of life accounts for 10% of inpatient hospital costs in UK. However, there has been little analysis of costs in other care settings. We investigated the publicly funded costs associated with the end of life across different health and social care settings.

METHOD

we performed cross-sectional analysis of linked electronic health records of residents aged over 50 in a locality in East London, UK, between 2011 and 2017. Those who died during the study period were matched to survivors on age group, sex, deprivation, number of long-term conditions and time period. Mean costs were calculated by care setting, age and months to death.

RESULTS

across 8,720 matched patients, the final year of life was associated with £7,450 (95% confidence interval £7,086-£7,842, P < 0.001) of additional health and care costs, 57% of which related to unplanned hospital care. Whilst costs increased sharply over the final few months of life in emergency and inpatient hospital care, in non-acute settings costs were less concentrated in this period. Patients who died at older ages had higher social care costs and lower healthcare costs than younger patients in their final year of life.

CONCLUSIONS

the large proportion of costs relating to unplanned hospital care suggests that end-of-life planning could direct care towards more appropriate settings and lead to system efficiencies. Death at older ages results in an increasing proportion of care costs relating to social care than to healthcare, which has implications for an ageing society.

Trends in multimorbidity, complex multimorbidity and multiple functional limitations in the ageing population of England, 2002-2015

This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of three measures of multimorbidity among people aged 50 years or older in England. Beside the basic measure of two or more diseases within a person, we added a measure of three or more affected body systems (complex multimorbidity) and a measure of 10 or more functional limitations. We found that the three health outcomes became more prevalent between 2002 and 2015. They were more common among females than males and were becoming more common among younger age groups. While in 2002, the prevalence of basic multimorbidity overcame 50% from the 70–74 age group upwards, in 2015 it crossed the same threshold in the 65–69 age group. The distribution of multimorbidity and multiple functional limitations were stratified by the amount of household wealth. Multiple functional limitations reflected the largest differences between the most and the least affluent groups (5.9-fold in 2014/2015), followed by the measure of complex multimorbidity (2.8-fold in 2014/2015) and basic multimorbidity (1.9-fold) in 2014/2015.While age acted as a levelling factor for the wealth differences in basic multimorbidity, it had no such effect on the two other outcomes. Our study observed social polarization among multimorbid ageing population in England where complex multimorbidity and multiple functional limitations increase faster and reflect stronger inequality than basic multimorbidity.

Spatial risk adjustment between health insurances: using GWR in risk adjustment models to conserve incentives for service optimisation and reduce MAUP

This paper presents a new approach to deal with spatial inequalities in risk adjustment between health insurances. The shortcomings of non-spatial and spatial fixed effects in risk adjustment models are analysed and opposed against spatial kernel estimators. Theoretical and empirical evidence suggests that a reasonable choice of the spatial kernel could limit the spatial uncertainty of the modifiable area unit problem under heavy-tailed claims data, leading to more precise predictions and economically positive incentives on the healthcare market. A case study of the German risk adjustment shows a spatial risk spread of 86 Euro p.c., leading to incentives for spatial risk selection. The proposed estimator eliminates this issue and conserves incentives for services optimisation.

Quantifying the impact of the Public Health Responsibility Deal on salt intake, cardiovascular disease and gastric cancer burdens: interrupted time series and microsimulation study

Background

In 2011, England introduced the Public Health Responsibility Deal (RD), a public-private partnership (PPP) which gave greater freedom to the food industry to set and monitor targets for salt intakes. We estimated the impact of the RD on trends in salt intake and associated changes in cardiovascular disease (CVD) and gastric cancer (GCa) incidence, mortality and economic costs in England from 2011–2025.

Methods

We used interrupted time series models with 24 hours' urine sample data and the IMPACT_NCD microsimulation model to estimate impacts of changes in salt consumption on CVD and GCa incidence, mortality and economic impacts, as well as equity impacts.

Results

Between 2003 and 2010 mean salt intake was falling annually by 0.20 grams/day among men and 0.12 g/d among women (P-value for trend both < 0.001). After RD implementation in 2011, annual declines in salt intake slowed statistically significantly to 0.11 g/d among men and 0.07 g/d among women (P-values for differences in trend both P < 0.001). We estimated that the RD has been responsible for approximately 9900 (interquartile quartile range (IQR): 6700 to 13,000) additional cases of CVD and 1500 (IQR: 510 to 2300) additional cases of GCa between 2011 and 2018. If the RD continues unchanged between 2019 and 2025, approximately 26 000 (IQR: 20 000 to 31,000) additional cases of CVD and 3800 (IQR: 2200 to 5300) cases of GCa may occur.

Interpretation

Public-private partnerships such as the RD which lack robust and independent target setting, monitoring and enforcement are unlikely to produce optimal health gains.

Comprehensive geriatric assessment for frail older people in acute hospitals: the HoW-CGA mixed-methods study

Background

The aim of this study was to provide high-quality evidence on delivering hospital-wide Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA).

Objective(s)

(1) To define CGA, its processes, outcomes and costs in the published literature, (2) to identify the processes, outcomes and costs of CGA in existing hospital settings in the UK, (3) to identify the characteristics of the recipients and beneficiaries of CGA in existing hospital settings in the UK and (4) to develop tools that will assist in the implementation of hospital-wide CGA.

Design

Mixed-methods study combining a mapping review, national survey, large data analysis and qualitative methods.

Participants

People aged ≥ 65 years in acute hospital settings.

Data sources

Literature review – Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects, MEDLINE and EMBASE. Survey – acute hospital trusts. Large data analyses – (1) people aged ≥ 75 years in 2008 living in Leicester, Nottingham or Southampton (development cohort,n = 22,139); (2) older people admitted for short stay (Nottingham/Leicester,n = 825) to a geriatric ward (Southampton,n = 246) or based in the community (Newcastle,n = 754); (3) people aged ≥ 75 years admitted to acute hospitals in England in 2014–15 (validation study,n = 1,013,590). Toolkit development – multidisciplinary national stakeholder group (co-production); field-testing with cancer/surgical teams in Newcastle/Leicester.

Results

Literature search – common outcomes included clinical, operational and destinational, but not patient-reported, outcome measures. Survey – highly variable provision of multidisciplinary assessment and care across hospitals. Quantitative analyses – in the development cohort, older people with frailty diagnoses formed a distinct group and had higher non-elective hospital use than older people without a frailty diagnosis. Patients with the highest 20% of hospital frailty risk scores had increased odds of 30-day mortality [odds ratio (OR) 1.7], long length of stay (OR 6.0) and 30-day re-admission (OR 1.5). The score had moderate agreement with the Fried and Rockwood scales. Pilot toolkit evaluation – participants across sites were still at the beginning of their work to identify patients and plan change. In particular, competing definitions of the role of geriatricians were evident.

Limitations

The survey was limited by an incomplete response rate but it still provides the largest description of acute hospital care for older people to date. The risk stratification tool is not contemporaneous, although it remains a powerful predictor of patient harms. The toolkit evaluation is still rather nascent and could have meaningfully continued for another year or more.

Conclusions

CGA remains the gold standard approach to improving a range of outcomes for older people in acute hospitals. Older people at risk can be identified using routine hospital data. Toolkits aimed at enhancing the delivery of CGA by non-specialists can be useful but require prolonged geriatrician support and implementation phases. Future work could involve comparing the hospital-based frailty index with the electronic Frailty Index and further testing of the clinical toolkits in specialist services.

Funding

The National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research programme.

Social gradients in health and social care costs: Analysis of linked electronic health records in Kent, UK

OBJECTIVES

Research into the socio-economic patterning of health and social care costs in the UK has so far been limited to examining only particular aspects of healthcare. In this study, we explore the social gradients in overall healthcare and social care costs, as well as in the disaggregated costs by cost category.

STUDY DESIGN

We calculated the social gradient in health and social care costs by cost category using a linked electronic health record data set for Kent, a county in South East England. We performed a cross-sectional analysis on a sample of 323,401 residents in Kent older than 55 years to assess the impact of neighbourhood deprivation on mean annual per capita costs in 2016/17.

METHODS

Patient-level costs were estimated from activity data for the financial year 2016/17 and were extracted alongside key patient characteristics. Mean costs were calculated for each area deprivation quintile based on the index of multiple deprivation of the neighbourhood (lower super output area) in which the patient lived. Cost subcategories were analysed across primary care, secondary care, social care, community care and mental health.

RESULTS

The mean annual per capita cost increased with deprivation across each deprivation quintile, with a cost of £1205 in the most affluent quintile, compared with £1623 in the most deprived quintile, a 35% cost increase. Social gradients were found across all cost subcategories.

CONCLUSIONS

Health inequalities in the population older than 55 years in Kent are associated with health and social care costs of £109m, equivalent to 15% of the estimated total expenditure in this age group. Such significant costs suggest that appropriate interventions to reduce socio-economic inequalities have the potential to substantially improve population health and, depending on how much investment they require, may even result in cost savings.

The expanding burden of idiopathic intracranial hypertension

Objective

To quantify the hospital burden and health economic impact of idiopathic intracranial hypertension.

Methods

Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) national data was extracted between 1st January 2002 and 31st December 2016. All those within England with a diagnosis of idiopathic intracranial hypertension were included. Those with secondary causes of raised intracranial pressure such as tumours, hydrocephalus and cerebral venous sinus thrombosis were excluded.

Results

A total of 23,182 new IIH cases were diagnosed. Fifty-two percent resided in the most socially deprived areas (quintiles 1 and 2). Incidence rose between 2002 and 2016 from 2.3 to 4.7 per 100,000 in the general population. Peak incidence occurred in females aged 25 (15.2 per 100,000). 91.6% were treated medically, 7.6% had a cerebrospinal fluid diversion procedure, 0.7% underwent bariatric surgery and 0.1% had optic nerve sheath fenestration. Elective caesarean sections rates were significantly higher in IIH (16%) compared to the general population (9%), p < 0.005. Admission rates rose by 442% between 2002 and 2014, with 38% having repeated admissions in the year following diagnosis. Duration of hospital admission was 2.7 days (8.8 days for those having CSF diversion procedures). Costs rose from £9.2 to £50 million per annum over the study period with costs forecasts of £462 million per annum by 2030.

Conclusions

IIH incidence is rising (by greater than 100% over the study), highest in areas of social deprivation and mirroring obesity trends. Re-admissions rates are high and growing yearly. The escalating population and financial burden of IIH has wide reaching implications for the health care system.

The relationship of neighbourhood-level material and social deprivation with health-related quality of life

PURPOSE

To examine the relationship of neighbourhood-level material and social deprivation with health-related quality of life, measured by the EQ-5D-5L, in the general adult population.

METHODS

A sample of 11,835 adults living in Alberta, Canada was drawn from three combined annual Health Quality Council of Alberta Satisfaction and Experiences with Health Care Services surveys from 2012 to 2016. Neighbourhood-level material and social deprivation indices were derived using the Pampalon index and the 2006 Canadian census. The EQ-5D-5L dimensions, index and VAS scores were compared across the deprivation indices quintiles in the overall sample and by participants' sub-groups. Differences were tested using ANOVA or Chi-square test as appropriate. Multivariate linear regression models were conducted to examine the independent association of material and social deprivation with the EQ-5D-5L index and VAS scores, and multinomial logistic regression models with each of the EQ-5D-5L dimensions.

RESULTS

Respondents in higher material or social deprivation categories had lower EQ-5D-5L index and VAS scores than those in the least deprived categories. Additionally, respondents with higher material deprivation were more likely to report problems on mobility, usual activities, and pain/discomfort; those with higher social deprivation were more likely to report problems on mobility, self-care, usual activities, and anxiety/depression.

CONCLUSION

Higher neighbourhood-level material and social deprivation is significantly associated with lower health-related quality of life in the general adult population. Examining the factors leading to this inequity in health between individuals living in the least and most deprived neighbourhoods is imperative to mitigating these inequities.

Future cost-effectiveness and equity of the NHS Health Check cardiovascular disease prevention programme: Microsimulation modelling using data from Liverpool, UK

BACKGROUND

Aiming to contribute to prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD), the National Health Service (NHS) Health Check programme has been implemented across England since 2009. The programme involves cardiovascular risk stratification-at 5-year intervals-of all adults between the ages of 40 and 74 years, excluding any with preexisting vascular conditions (including CVD, diabetes mellitus, and hypertension, among others), and offers treatment to those at high risk. However, the cost-effectiveness and equity of population CVD screening is contested. This study aimed to determine whether the NHS Health Check programme is cost-effective and equitable in a city with high levels of deprivation and CVD.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

IMPACTNCD is a dynamic stochastic microsimulation policy model, calibrated to Liverpool demographics, risk factor exposure, and CVD epidemiology. Using local and national data, as well as drawing on health and social care disease costs and health-state utilities, we modelled 5 scenarios from 2017 to 2040: Scenario (A): continuing current implementation of NHS Health Check;Scenario (B): implementation 'targeted' toward areas in the most deprived quintile with increased coverage and uptake;Scenario (C): 'optimal' implementation assuming optimal coverage, uptake, treatment, and lifestyle change;Scenario (D): scenario A combined with structural population-wide interventions targeting unhealthy diet and smoking;Scenario (E): scenario B combined with the structural interventions as above. We compared all scenarios with a counterfactual of no-NHS Health Check. Compared with no-NHS Health Check, the model estimated cumulative incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) (discounted £/quality-adjusted life year [QALY]) to be 11,000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] -270,000 to 320,000) for scenario A, 1,500 (-91,000 to 100,000) for scenario B, -2,400 (-6,500 to 5,700) for scenario C, -5,100 (-7,400 to -3,200) for scenario D, and -5,000 (-7,400 to -3,100) for scenario E. Overall, scenario A is unlikely to become cost-effective or equitable, and scenario B is likely to become cost-effective by 2040 and equitable by 2039. Scenario C is likely to become cost-effective by 2030 and cost-saving by 2040. Scenarios D and E are likely to be cost-saving by 2021 and 2023, respectively, and equitable by 2025. The main limitation of the analysis is that we explicitly modelled CVD and diabetes mellitus only.

CONCLUSIONS

According to our analysis of the situation in Liverpool, current NHS Health Check implementation appears neither equitable nor cost-effective. Optimal implementation is likely to be cost-saving but not equitable, while targeted implementation is likely to be both. Adding structural policies targeting cardiovascular risk factors could substantially improve equity and generate cost savings.

Geographical epidemiology of health and overall deprivation in England, its changes and persistence from 2004 to 2015: a longitudinal spatial population study

BACKGROUND

Socioeconomic deprivation is a key determinant for health. In England, the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) is a widely used composite measure of deprivation. However, little is known about its spatial clustering or persistence across time.

METHODS

Data for overall IMD and its health domain were analysed for 2004-2015 at a low geographical area (average of 1500 people). Levels and temporal changes were spatially visualised for the whole of England and its 10 administrative regions. Spatial clustering was quantified using Moran's I, correlations over time were quantified using Pearson's r.

RESULTS

Between 2004 and 2015 we observed a strong persistence for both overall (r=0.94) and health-related deprivation (r=0.92). At the regional level, small changes were observed over time, but with areas slowly regressing towards the mean. However, for the North East, North West and Yorkshire, where health-related deprivation was the highest, the decreasing trend in health-related deprivation reversed and we noticed increases in 2015. Results did not support our hypothesis of increasing spatial clustering over time. However, marked regional variability was observed in both aggregate deprivation outcomes. The lowest autocorrelation was seen in the North East and changed very little over time, while the South East had the highest autocorrelation at all time points.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall and health-related deprivation patterns persisted in England, with large and unchanging health inequalities between the North and the South. The spatial aspect of deprivation can inform the targeting of health and social care interventions, particularly in areas with high levels of deprivation clustering.

Identifying social factors amongst older individuals in linked electronic health records: An assessment in a population based study

Identification and quantification of health inequities amongst specific social groups is a pre-requisite for designing targeted healthcare interventions. This study investigated the recording of social factors in linked electronic health records (EHR) of individuals aged ≥65 years, to assess the potential of these data to identify the social determinants of disease burden and uptake of healthcare interventions. Methodology was developed for ascertaining social factors recorded on or before a pre-specified index date (01/01/2013) using primary care data from Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) linked to hospitalisation and deprivation data in a cross-sectional study. Social factors included: religion, ethnicity, immigration status, small area-level deprivation, place of residence (including communal establishments such as care homes), marital status and living arrangements (e.g. living alone, cohabitation). Each social factor was examined for: completeness of recording including improvements in completeness by using other linked EHR, timeliness of recording for factors that might change over time and their representativeness (compared with English 2011 Census data when available). Data for 591,037 individuals from 389 practices from England were analysed. The completeness of recording varied from 1.6% for immigration status to ~80% for ethnicity. Linkages provided the deprivation data (available for 82% individuals) and improved completeness of ethnicity recording from 55% to 79% (when hospitalisation data were added). Data for ethnicity, deprivation, living arrangements and care home residence were comparable to the Census data. For time-varying variables such as residence and living alone, ~60% and ~35% respectively of those with available data, had this information recorded within the last 5 years of the index date. This work provides methods to identify social factors in EHR relevant to older individuals and shows that factors such as ethnicity, deprivation, not living alone, cohabitation and care home residence can be ascertained using these data. Applying these methodologies to routinely collected data could improve surveillance programmes and allow assessment of health equity in specific healthcare studies.

Impact of regional socioeconomic variation on coordination and cost of ambulatory care: investigation of claims data from Bavaria, Germany

OBJECTIVES

A considerable proportion of regional variation in healthcare use and health expenditures is to date still unexplained. The aim was to investigate regional differences in the gatekeeping role of general practitioners and to identify relevant explanatory variables at patient and district level in Bavaria, Germany.

DESIGN

Retrospective routine data analysis using claims data held by the Bavarian Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians.

PARTICIPANTS

All patients who consulted a specialist in ambulatory practice within the first quarter of 2011 (n=3 616 510).

OUTCOMES MEASURES

Of primary interest is the effect of district-level measures of rurality, physician density and multiple deprivation on (1) the proportion of patients with general practitioner (GP) coordination of specialist care and (2) the mean amount in Euros claimed by specialist physicians.

RESULTS

The proportion of patients whose use of specialist services was coordinated by a GP was significantly higher in rural areas and in highly deprived regions, as compared with urban and less deprived regions. The hierarchical models revealed that increasing age and the presence of chronic diseases are the strongest predictive factors for coordination by a GP. In contrast, the presence of mental illness, an increasing number of medical condition categories and living in a city are predictors for specialist use without GP coordination. The amount claimed per patient was €10 to €20 higher in urban districts and in regions with lower deprivation. Hierarchical models indicate that this amount is on average higher for patients living in towns and lower for patients in regions with high deprivation.

CONCLUSION

The present study shows that regional deprivation is closely associated with the way in which patients access primary and specialist care. This has clear consequences, both with respect to the role of the general practitioner and the financial costs of care.

The impact of socioeconomic status and multimorbidity on mortality: a population-based cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Multimorbidity (MM) is more prevalent among people of lower socioeconomic status (SES), and both MM and SES are associated with higher mortality rates. However, little is known about the relationship between SES, MM, and mortality. This study investigates the association between educational level and mortality, and to what extent MM modifies this association.

METHODS

We followed 239,547 individuals invited to participate in the Danish National Health Survey 2010 (mean follow-up time: 3.8 years). MM was assessed by using information on drug prescriptions and diagnoses for 39 long-term conditions. Data on educational level were provided by Statistics Denmark. Date of death was obtained from the Civil Registration System. Information on lifestyle factors and quality of life was collected from the survey. The main outcomes were overall and premature mortality (death before the age of 75).

RESULTS

Of a total of 12,480 deaths, 6,607 (9.5%) were of people with low educational level (LEL) and 1,272 (2.3%) were of people with high educational level (HEL). The mortality rate was higher among people with LEL compared with HEL in groups of people with 0-1 disease (hazard ratio: 2.26, 95% confidence interval: 2.00-2.55) and ≥4 diseases (hazard ratio: 1.14, 95% confidence interval: 1.04-1.24), respectively (adjusted model). The absolute number of deaths was six times higher among people with LEL than those with HEL in those with ≥4 diseases. The 1-year cumulative mortality proportions for overall death in those with ≥4 diseases was 5.59% for people with HEL versus 7.27% for people with LEL, and 1-year cumulative mortality proportions for premature death was 2.93% for people with HEL versus 4.04% for people with LEL. Adjusting for potential mediating factors such as lifestyle and quality of life eliminated the statistical association between educational level and mortality in people with MM.

CONCLUSION

Our study suggests that LEL is associated with higher overall and premature mortality and that the association is affected by MM, lifestyle factors, and quality of life.

An analysis of depressive symptoms in stroke survivors: verification of a moderating effect of demographic characteristics

BACKGROUND

The rehabilitation of depressed stroke patients is more difficult because poststroke depression is associated with disruption of daily activities, functioning, and quality of life. However, research on depression in stroke patients is limited. The aim of our study was to evaluate the interaction of demographic characteristics including gender, age, education level, the presence of a spouse, and income status on depressive symptoms in stroke patients and to identify groups that may need more attention with respect to depressive symptoms.

METHODS

We completed a secondary data analysis using data from a completed cross-sectional study of people with stroke. Depression was measured using the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale.

RESULTS

In this study, depressive symptoms in women living with a spouse were less severe than among those without a spouse. For those with insufficient income, depressive symptom scores were higher in the above high school group than in the below high school group, but were lower in patients who were living with a spouse than in those living without a spouse.

CONCLUSION

Assessing depressive symptoms after stroke should consider the interaction of gender, economic status, education level, and the presence/absence of a spouse. These results would help in comprehensive understanding of the importance of screening for and treating depressive symptoms during rehabilitation after stroke.