Relationship between haemagglutination-inhibiting antibody titres and clinical protection against influenza: development and application of a bayesian random-effects model

One HA stalk topping multiple heads as a novel influenza vaccine

Classic chimeric hemagglutinin (cHA) was designed to induce immune responses against the conserved stalk domain of HA. However, it is unclear whether combining more than one HA head domain onto one stalk domain is immunogenic and further induce immune responses against influenza viruses. Here, we constructed numerous novel cHAs comprising two or three fuzed head domains from different subtypes grafted onto one stalk domain, designated as cH1-H3, cH1-H7, cH1-H3-H7, and cH1-H7-H3. The three-dimensional structures of these novel cHAs were modelled using bioinformatics simulations. Structural analysis showed that the intact neutralizing epitopes were exposed in cH1-H7 and were predicted to be immunogenic. The immunogenicity of the cHAs constructs was evaluated in mice using a chimpanzee adenoviral vector (AdC68) vaccine platform. The results demonstrated that cH1-H7 expressed by AdC68 (AdC68-cH1-H7) induced the production of high levels of binding antibodies, neutralizing antibodies, and hemagglutinin inhibition antibodies against homologous pandemic H1N1, drifted seasonal H1N1, and H7N9 virus. Moreover, vaccinated mice were fully protected from a lethal challenge with the aforementioned influenza viruses. Hence, cH1-H7 cHAs with potent immunogenicity might be a potential novel vaccine to provide protection against different subtypes of influenza virus.

Molecular epidemiology and vaccine compatibility analysis of seasonal influenza A viruses in the context of COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China

The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on the global influenza vaccination and the epidemics of seasonal influenza. To further explore the molecular epidemiology of influenza viruses and assess vaccine effectiveness, we collected influenza cases in Wuhan during the 2022-2023 influenza season. Among 1312 clinical samples, 312 samples tested positive for influenza viruses using reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction. These positive samples included 146A/H1N1 subtypes (46.8%), 164A/H3N2 subtypes (52.6%) and 2 influenza B virus types (0.6%). Based on the whole genome sequence information of hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) from 27A/H1N1 influenza virus strains and 26A/H3N2 influenza virus strains obtained in this study, a phylogenetic analysis was conducted. The analysis revealed that all A/H1N1 strains belonged to the evolutionary branch 6B.1A.5a.2a, and they exhibited specific substitutions at positions K71Q, Q206E, E241A, and R276K. Similarly, all A/H3N2 strains were classified into the 3C.2a1b.2a.1a subclade and displayed amino acid substitutions at positions S172H, N175Y, I176T, K187N, and S214P. Notably, the A/H3N2 strains also acquired a new potential glycosylation site at position N174. Using an epitope model, the predicted vaccine effectiveness was assessed for the A/H1N1 and A/H3N2 strains. The predicted vaccine effectiveness against the Wuhan influenza epidemic strain was over 85% for the A/H1N1 vaccine strain. However, the effectiveness against the A/H3N2 vaccine strain was only 48.7%. To further verify the protection of influenza vaccine against circulating influenza viruses in the region, we conducted in vivo and in vitro animal studies. The results of in vitro neutralization experiment showed that rabbit serum antibodies inoculated with quadrivalent isolated influenza vaccine had neutralization ability against all 24 isolated influenza viruses. In vivo experiments showed that vaccinated mice had fewer lung lesions when infected with the influenza strain circulating in Wuhan, suggesting that vaccination can effectively reduce the occurrence of severe lung damage. These findings emphasize the importance of accurately predicting seasonal influenza strains for effective influenza prevention and control, especially during the co-circulation of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza viruses. This study provides valuable information on the seasonal influenza virus in Wuhan during the COVID-19 pandemic and serves as a basis for vaccine prediction and updates.

Antibody Persistence and Risk of COVID-19 Infection: Insights from Modeling

BACKGROUND

In this post hoc exploratory study of the APHP-COVIBOOST trial (NCT05124171), we used statistical modeling to describe the evolution of neutralizing antibody (nAb) titers over time, asses its impact on SARS-CoV-2 infection, and explore potential differences between three booster vaccine formulations (D614, B.1.351, and BNT162b2).

METHODS

Antibody titers were measured for 208 adult participants at day 28, 3 months, and 6 months using a microneutralization assay against different Omicron subvariants. We developed four specific Bayesian statistical models based on a core model, accounting for vaccine-specific antibody decline, boosting of nAb for breakthrough infection, and risk of infection according to nAb levels. The model findings were cross-verified using another validated microneutralization assay.

RESULTS

The decrease in nAb titers was significantly lower for the B.1.351 vaccine than for the other booster formulations. An inverse relationship was found between risk of infection upon exposure and nAb levels. With Omicron BA.1 data, these results translated into a positive relative vaccine efficacy against any infection over 6 months for the B.1.351 vaccine compared to the BNT162b2 (31%) and D614 (21%) vaccines.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk of infection decreased with increasing nAb titers for all vaccines. Statistical models predicted significantly better antibody persistence for the B.1.351 booster formulation compared to the other evaluated vaccines.

Immunogenicity and Protective Efficacy of Dose-Sparing Epigraph Vaccine against H3 Swine Influenza A Virus

Swine influenza A virus (IAV-S) is a highly prevalent and transmissible pathogen infecting worldwide swine populations. Our previous work has shown that the computationally derived vaccine platform, Epigraph, can induce broadly cross-reactive and durable immunity against H3 IAV-S in mice and swine. Therefore, in this study, we assess the immunogenicity and protective efficacy of the Epigraph vaccine at increasingly lower doses to determine the minimum dose required to maintain protective immunity against three genetically divergent H3 IAV-S. We assessed both antibody and T cell responses and then challenged with three H3N2 IAV-S derived from either Cluster IV(A), Cluster I, or the 2010.1 "human-like" cluster and assessed protection through reduced pathology, reduced viral load in the lungs, and reduced viral shedding from nasal swabs. Overall, we observed a dose-dependent effect where the highest dose of Epigraph protected against all three challenges, the middle dose of Epigraph protected against more genetically similar IAV-S, and the lowest dose of Epigraph only protected against genetically similar IAV-S. The results of these studies can be used to continue developing a broadly protective and low-dose vaccine against H3 IAV-S.

Immune imprinting in early life shapes cross-reactivity to influenza B virus haemagglutinin

Influenza exposures early in life are believed to shape future susceptibility to influenza infections by imprinting immunological biases that affect cross-reactivity to future influenza viruses. However, direct serological evidence linked to susceptibility is limited. Here we analysed haemagglutination-inhibition titres in 1,451 cross-sectional samples collected between 1992 and 2020, from individuals born between 1917 and 2008, against influenza B virus (IBV) isolates from 1940 to 2021. We included testing of 'future' isolates that circulated after sample collection. We show that immunological biases are conferred by early life IBV infection and result in lineage-specific cross-reactivity of a birth cohort towards future IBV isolates. This translates into differential estimates of susceptibility between birth cohorts towards the B/Yamagata and B/Victoria lineages, predicting lineage-specific birth-cohort distributions of observed medically attended IBV infections. Our data suggest that immunological measurements of imprinting could be important in modelling and predicting virus epidemiology.

Hemagglutination Inhibition Antibody Titers as Mediators of Influenza Vaccine Efficacy Against Symptomatic Influenza A(H1N1), A(H3N2), and B/Victoria Virus Infections

BACKGROUND

The hemagglutination inhibition antibody (HAI) titer contributes only a part of vaccine-induced protection against influenza virus infections. Using causal mediation analysis, we quantified the proportion of vaccine efficacy mediated by postvaccination HAI titers.

METHODS

We conducted causal mediation analyses using data from a randomized, active-comparator controlled, phase III, trial of an inactivated, split-virion seasonal quadrivalent influenza vaccine in children conducted from October 2010 to December 2011 in 8 countries. Vaccine efficacy was estimated using a weighted Cox proportional hazards model. Estimates were decomposed into the direct and indirect effects mediated by postvaccination HAI titers.

RESULTS

The proportions of vaccine efficacy mediated by postvaccination HAI titers were estimated to be 22% (95% confidence interval, 18%--47%) for influenza A(H1N1), 20% (16%-39%) for influenza A(H3N2), and 37% (26%-85%) for influenza B/Victoria.

CONCLUSIONS

HAI titers partially mediate influenza vaccine efficacy against influenza A(H1N1), A(H3N2), and B/Victoria. Our estimates were lower than in previous studies, possibly reflecting expected heterogeneity in antigenic similarity between vaccine and circulating viruses across seasons.

Inter- and intra-individual differences regarding SARS-CoV-2 and influenza vaccination in pediatric kidney transplant recipients: An observational study

In kidney transplant recipients (KTRs), viral infection can lead to antibody and/or T-cell mediated rejection, resulting in kidney transplant dysfunction. Therefore, it is critical to prevent infections. However, KTRs exhibit suboptimal responses to SARS-CoV-2 and/or influenza vaccines, partly due to immunosuppressant therapy. Inter- and intra-individual differences in the biological responses to vaccines may also affect patients' antibody production ability. This study included KTRs who received an messenger RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine (3 doses), and an inactivated quadrivalent influenza vaccine (1 or 2 doses). We measured the patients' total antibody titers against SARS-CoV-2 spike antigen, and hemagglutination inhibition (HI) titers against influenza A/H1N1, A/H3N2, B/Yamagata, and B/Victoria. Five patients were eligible for this study. Of these 5 KTRs, two produced anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike antibody titers to a seroprotective level, and also produced HI titers against A/H1N1 to a seroprotective level. Another 2 KTRs did not produce seroprotective anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody titers, but produced seroprotective HI titers against A/H1N1. The remaining KTR produced a seroprotective anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody titer, but did not produce a seroprotective HI titer against A/H1N1. The 2 KTRs who did not produce seroprotective anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody titers following vaccination, later developed COVID-19, and this infection increased their titers over the seroprotective level. This study demonstrated that inter- and intra-individual differences in biological responses to vaccines should be considered in pediatric KTRs, in addition to immunosuppressant effects. Personalized regimens, such as augmented or booster doses of vaccines, could potentially improve the vaccination efficacy against SARS-CoV-2 and influenza.

Neutralizing antibody responses against contemporary and future influenza A(H3N2) viruses in paradoxical clades elicited by repeated and single vaccinations

As one of the most effective measures to prevent seasonal influenza viruses, annual influenza vaccination is globally recommended. Nevertheless, evidence regarding the impact of repeated vaccination to contemporary and future influenza has been inconclusive. A total of 100 subjects singly or repeatedly immunized with influenza vaccines including 3C.2a1 or 3C.3a1 A(H3N2) during 2018-2019 and 2019-2020 influenza season were recruited. We investigated neutralization antibody by microneutralization assay using four antigenically distinct A(H3N2) viruses circulating from 2018 to 2023, and tracked the dynamics of B cell receptor (BCR) repertoire for consecutive vaccinations. We found that vaccination elicited cross-reactive antibody responses against future emerging strains. Broader neutralizing antibodies to A(H3N2) viruses and more diverse BCR repertoires were observed in the repeated vaccination. Meanwhile, a higher frequency of BCR sequences shared among the repeated-vaccinated individuals with consistently boosting antibody response was found than those with a reduced antibody response. Our findings suggest that repeated seasonal vaccination could broaden the breadth of antibody responses, which may improve vaccine protection against future emerging viruses.

Nanoparticle display of neuraminidase elicits enhanced antibody responses and protection against influenza A virus challenge

Current Influenza virus vaccines primarily induce antibody responses against variable epitopes in hemagglutinin (HA), necessitating frequent updates. However, antibodies against neuraminidase (NA) can also confer protection against influenza, making NA an attractive target for the development of novel vaccines. In this study, we aimed to enhance the immunogenicity of recombinant NA antigens by presenting them multivalently on a nanoparticle carrier. Soluble tetrameric NA antigens of the N1 and N2 subtypes, confirmed to be correctly folded by cryo-electron microscopy structural analysis, were conjugated to Mi3 self-assembling protein nanoparticles using the SpyTag-SpyCatcher system. Immunization of mice with NA-Mi3 nanoparticles induced higher titers of NA-binding and -inhibiting antibodies and improved protection against a lethal challenge compared to unconjugated NA. Additionally, we explored the co-presentation of N1 and N2 antigens on the same Mi3 particles to create a mosaic vaccine candidate. These mosaic nanoparticles elicited antibody titers that were similar or superior to the homotypic nanoparticles and effectively protected against H1N1 and H3N2 challenge viruses. The NA-Mi3 nanoparticles represent a promising vaccine candidate that could complement HA-directed approaches for enhanced potency and broadened protection against influenza A virus.

Concepts and methods for predicting viral evolution

The seasonal human influenza virus undergoes rapid evolution, leading to significant changes in circulating viral strains from year to year. These changes are typically driven by adaptive mutations, particularly in the antigenic epitopes, the regions of the viral surface protein haemagglutinin targeted by human antibodies. Here we describe a consistent set of methods for data-driven predictive analysis of viral evolution. Our pipeline integrates four types of data: (1) sequence data of viral isolates collected on a worldwide scale, (2) epidemiological data on incidences, (3) antigenic characterization of circulating viruses, and (4) intrinsic viral phenotypes. From the combined analysis of these data, we obtain estimates of relative fitness for circulating strains and predictions of clade frequencies for periods of up to one year. Furthermore, we obtain comparative estimates of protection against future viral populations for candidate vaccine strains, providing a basis for pre-emptive vaccine strain selection. Continuously updated predictions obtained from the prediction pipeline for influenza and SARS-CoV-2 are available on the website previr.app.

Reconstructed influenza A/H3N2 infection histories reveal variation in incidence and antibody dynamics over the life course

Humans experience many influenza infections over their lives, resulting in complex and varied immunological histories. Although experimental and quantitative analyses have improved our understanding of the immunological processes defining an individual's antibody repertoire, how these within-host processes are linked to population-level influenza epidemiology remains unclear. Here, we used a multi-level mathematical model to jointly infer antibody dynamics and individual-level lifetime influenza A/H3N2 infection histories for 1,130 individuals in Guangzhou, China, using 67,683 haemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay measurements against 20 A/H3N2 strains from repeat serum samples collected between 2009 and 2015. These estimated infection histories allowed us to reconstruct historical seasonal influenza patterns and to investigate how influenza incidence varies over time, space and age in this population. We estimated median annual influenza infection rates to be approximately 18% from 1968 to 2015, but with substantial variation between years. 88% of individuals were estimated to have been infected at least once during the study period (2009-2015), and 20% were estimated to have three or more infections in that time. We inferred decreasing infection rates with increasing age, and found that annual attack rates were highly correlated across all locations, regardless of their distance, suggesting that age has a stronger impact than fine-scale spatial effects in determining an individual's antibody profile. Finally, we reconstructed each individual's expected antibody profile over their lifetime and inferred an age-stratified relationship between probability of infection and HI titre. Our analyses show how multi-strain serological panels provide rich information on long term, epidemiological trends, within-host processes and immunity when analyzed using appropriate inference methods, and adds to our understanding of the life course epidemiology of influenza A/H3N2.

Pilot-scale production of a highly efficacious and stable monoglycosylated influenza split virus vaccine

The yearly epidemics and unpredictable outbreaks of influenza have raisedserious concernsglobally and led to prioritizing the development of an effective vaccine toprotectagainst newly emerging variants. Previously, we demonstrated that monoglycosylated influenza virus vaccines derived from A/California/7/2009 or an updated A/Brisbane/02/2018 (IVR-190) vaccine strain recommended by WHO are superior to fully glycosylated vaccines and could broadly protect against past and new coming H1N1 variants. However, whether such a monoglycosylated virus vaccine can be mass-produced to meet clinical demands and stable enough to provide consistent efficacy against H1N1 viruses remains unclear. Herein, we developed a platform for the pilot-scale production of the monoglycosylated split virus vaccine from the IVR-190 strain (IVR-190mg) with a robust and cost-effective manufacturing process. The critical parameters of inoculum dose, concentration of kifunensine, and optimized Endo H treatment process were comprehensively investigated. Several aims for preclinical studies of IVR-190mg were achieved, including [i] the execution of three engineering batch runs to validate lot-to-lot consistency, [ii] the establishment of IVR-190mg specifications to meet the acceptance criteria of a conventional influenza vaccine, [iii] an investigation of the stability profile of IVR-190mg, and completion of a safety evaluation by conducting an animal toxicology study. The toxicology study under GLP guidance found no systemic toxicity after rabbits were vaccinated with IVR-190mg. The serological data showed that IVR-190mg is highly immunogenic and effective in inducing a cross-strain protective level of antibody immune responses, including hemagglutination-inhibition titers, viral neutralization activity, and broad HA- and NA-inhibiting antibody titers against past and new H1N1 viruses. In conclusion, this study provides efficacy and safety profiles of IVR-190mg for further clinical study and shows that this vaccine without a glycan shield has great potential to be safe and protective against H1N1 variants.

Predicting Vaccine Effectiveness for Hospitalization and Symptomatic Disease for Novel SARS-CoV-2 Variants Using Neutralizing Antibody Titers

The emergence of new virus variants, including the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) of SARS-CoV-2, can lead to reduced vaccine effectiveness (VE) and the need for new vaccines or vaccine doses if the extent of immune evasion is severe. Neutralizing antibody titers have been shown to be a correlate of protection for SARS-CoV-2 and other pathogens, and could be used to quickly estimate vaccine effectiveness for new variants. However, no model currently exists to provide precise VE estimates for a new variant against severe disease for SARS-CoV-2 using robust datasets from several populations. We developed predictive models for VE against COVID-19 symptomatic disease and hospitalization across a 54-fold range of mean neutralizing antibody titers. For two mRNA vaccines (mRNA-1273, BNT162b2), models fit without Omicron data predicted that infection with the BA.1 Omicron variant increased the risk of hospitalization 2.8-4.4-fold and increased the risk of symptomatic disease 1.7-4.2-fold compared to the Delta variant. Out-of-sample validation showed that model predictions were accurate; all predictions were within 10% of observed VE estimates and fell within the model prediction intervals. Predictive models using neutralizing antibody titers can provide rapid VE estimates, which can inform vaccine booster timing, vaccine design, and vaccine selection for new virus variants.

Asymmetrical Biantennary Glycans Prepared by a Stop-and-Go Strategy Reveal Receptor Binding Evolution of Human Influenza A Viruses

Glycan binding properties of respiratory viruses have been difficult to probe due to a lack of biologically relevant glycans for binding studies. Here, a stop-and-go chemoenzymatic methodology is presented that gave access to a panel of 32 asymmetrical biantennary N-glycans having various numbers of N-acetyl lactosamine (LacNAc) repeating units capped by α2,3- or α2,6-sialosides resembling structures found in airway tissues. It exploits that the branching enzymes MGAT1 and MGAT2 can utilize unnatural UDP-2-deoxy-2-trifluoro-N-acetamido-glucose (UDP-GlcNTFA) as donor. The TFA moiety of the resulting glycans can be hydrolyzed to give GlcNH2 at one of the antennae, which temporarily blocks extension by glycosyl transferases. The N-glycans were printed as a microarray that was probed for receptor binding specificities of the evolutionary distinct human A(H3N2) and A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses. It was found that not only the sialoside type but also the length of the LacNAc chain and presentation at the α1,3-antenna of N-glycans are critical for binding. Early A(H3N2) viruses bound to 2,6-sialosides at a single LacNAc moiety at the α1,3-antenna whereas later viruses required the sialoside to be presented at a tri-LacNAc moiety. Surprisingly, most of the A(H3N2) viruses that appeared after 2021 regained binding capacity to sialosides presented at a di-LacNAc moiety. As a result, these viruses again agglutinate erythrocytes, commonly employed for antigenic characterization of influenza viruses. Human A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses have similar receptor binding properties as recent A(H3N2) viruses. The data indicate that an asymmetric N-glycan having 2,6-sialoside at a di-LacNAc moiety is a commonly employed receptor by human influenza A viruses.

Optimal timing of influenza vaccination in young children: population based cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To assess optimal timing of influenza vaccination in young children.

DESIGN

Population based cohort study.

SETTING

United States.

PARTICIPANTS

Commercially insured children aged 2-5 years who were vaccinated against influenza during 2011-18.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Rates of diagnosis of influenza among children who were vaccinated against influenza, by birth month.

RESULTS

Overall, 819 223 children aged 2-5 received influenza vaccination. Children vaccinated in November and December were least likely to have a diagnosis of influenza, a finding that may be confounded by unmeasured factors that influence the timing of vaccination and risk of influenza. Vaccination commonly occurred on days of preventive care visits and during birth months. Children born in October were disproportionately vaccinated in October and were, on average, vaccinated later than children born in August and earlier than those born in December. Children born in October had the lowest rate of influenza diagnosis (for example, 2.7% (6016/224 540) versus 3.0% (6462/212 622) for those born in August; adjusted odds ratio 0.88, 95% confidence interval 0.85 to 0.92).

CONCLUSIONS

In a quasi-experimental analysis of young children vaccinated against influenza, birth month was associated with the timing of vaccination through its influence on the timing of preventive care visits. Children born in October were most likely to be vaccinated in October and least likely to have a diagnosis of influenza, consistent with recommendations promoting October vaccination.

Quantifying the impact of pre-vaccination titre and vaccination history on influenza vaccine immunogenicity

Epidemiological studies suggest that heterogeneity in influenza vaccine antibody response is associated with host factors, including pre-vaccination immune status, age, gender, and vaccination history. However, the pattern of reported associations varies between studies. To better understand the underlying influences on antibody responses, we combined host factors and vaccine-induced in-host antibody kinetics from a cohort study conducted across multiple seasons with a unified analysis framework. We developed a flexible individual-level Bayesian model to estimate associations and interactions between host factors, including pre-vaccine HAI titre, age, sex, vaccination history and study setting, and vaccine-induced HAI titre antibody boosting and waning. We applied the model to derive population-level and individual effects of post-vaccine antibody kinetics for vaccinating and circulating strains for A(H1N1) and A(H3N2) influenza subtypes. We found that post-vaccine HAI titre dynamics were significantly influenced by pre-vaccination HAI titre and vaccination history and that lower pre-vaccination HAI titre results in longer durations of seroprotection (HAI titre equal to 1:40 or higher). Consequently, for A(H1N1), our inference finds that the expected duration of seroprotection post-vaccination was 171 (95% Posterior Predictive Interval[PPI] 128-220) and 159 (95% PPI 120-200) days longer for those who are infrequently vaccinated (<2 vaccines in last five years) compared to those who are frequently vaccinated (2 or more vaccines in the last five years) at pre-vaccination HAI titre values of 1:10 and 1:20 respectively. In addition, we found significant differences in the empirical distributions that describe the individual-level duration of seroprotection for A(H1N1) circulating strains. In future, studies that rely on serological endpoints should include the impact of pre-vaccine HAI titre and prior vaccination status on seropositivity and seroconversion estimates, as these significantly influence an individual's post-vaccination antibody kinetics.

Variation in the basal immune state and implications for disease

Analysis of pre-existing immunity and its effects on acute infection often focus on memory responses associated with a prior infectious exposure. However, memory responses occur in the context of the overall immune state and leukocytes must interact with their microenvironment and other immune cells. Thus, it is important to also consider non-antigen-specific factors which shape the composite basal state and functional capacity of the immune system, termed here as I0 ('I naught'). In this review, we discuss the determinants of I0. Utilizing influenza virus as a model, we then consider the effect of I0 on susceptibility to infection and disease severity. Lastly, we outline a mathematical framework and demonstrate how researchers can build and tailor models to specific needs. Understanding how diverse factors uniquely and collectively impact immune competence will provide valuable insights into mechanisms of immune variation, aid in screening for high-risk populations, and promote the development of broadly applicable prophylactic and therapeutic treatments.

Multivalent Epigraph Hemagglutinin Vaccine Protects against Influenza B Virus in Mice

Influenza B virus is a respiratory pathogen that contributes to seasonal epidemics, accounts for approximately 25% of global influenza infections, and can induce severe disease in young children. While vaccination is the most commonly used method of preventing influenza infections, current vaccines only induce strain-specific responses and have suboptimal efficacy when mismatched from circulating strains. Further, two influenza B virus lineages have been described, B/Yamagata-like and B/Victoria-like, and the limited cross-reactivity between the two lineages provides an additional barrier in developing a universal influenza B virus vaccine. Here, we report a novel multivalent vaccine using computationally designed Epigraph hemagglutinin proteins targeting both the B/Yamagata-like and B/Victoria-like lineages. When compared to the quadrivalent commercial vaccine, the Epigraph vaccine demonstrated increased breadth of neutralizing antibody and T cell responses. After lethal heterologous influenza B virus challenge, mice immunized with the Epigraph vaccine were completely protected against both weight loss and mortality. The superior cross-reactive immunity conferred by the Epigraph vaccine immunogens supports their continued investigation as a universal influenza B virus vaccine.

Determinants of epidemic size and the impacts of lulls in seasonal influenza virus circulation

During the COVID-19 pandemic, levels of seasonal influenza virus circulation were unprecedentedly low, leading to concerns that a lack of exposure to influenza viruses, combined with waning antibody titres, could result in larger and/or more severe post-pandemic seasonal influenza epidemics. However, in most countries the first post-pandemic influenza season was not unusually large and/or severe. Here, based on an analysis of historical influenza virus epidemic patterns from 2002 to 2019, we show that historic lulls in influenza virus circulation had relatively minor impacts on subsequent epidemic size and that epidemic size was more substantially impacted by season-specific effects unrelated to the magnitude of circulation in prior seasons. From measurements of antibody levels from serum samples collected each year from 2017 to 2021, we show that the rate of waning of antibody titres against influenza virus during the pandemic was smaller than assumed in predictive models. Taken together, these results partially explain why the re-emergence of seasonal influenza virus epidemics was less dramatic than anticipated and suggest that influenza virus epidemic dynamics are not currently amenable to multi-season prediction.

Impact of influenza immunity on the mortality among older adults hospitalized with COVID-19: a retrospective cohort study

It has been suggested that the outcomes of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are better in individuals having recently received an influenza vaccine than in non-vaccinated individuals. We hypothesized that this association depends on the humoral responses against influenza viruses. We aim to assess the relationship between the humoral immunity against influenza and the 3-month all-cause mortality among hospitalized older patients with COVID-19. We performed an exploratory retrospective study of older patients (aged 65 and over) hospitalized for confirmed COVID-19 between November 2020 and June 2021. Previous humoral responses to influenza viruses were assessed using a hemagglutination inhibition assay on routinely collected blood samples. The study's primary outcome was the 3-month all-cause mortality, and the secondary outcomes were severe COVID-19 (oxygen requirement ≥ 6 L/min or ventilatory support) and complications (kidney or heart failure, thrombosis and bacterial infection). In the cohort of 95 patients with COVID-19, immunity against influenza vaccine subtypes/lineages was not significantly associated with 3-month all-cause mortality, with an OR [95%CI] of 0.22 [0.02-1.95] (p = 0.174) for the H1N1pdm09 subtype, 0.21 [0.03-1.24] (p = 0.081) for A/Hong Kong/2671/2019 H3N2 subtype, 1.98 [0.51-8.24] (p = 0.329) for the B/Victoria lineage, and 1.82 [0.40-8.45] (p = 0.437) for the B/Yamagata lineage. Immunity against influenza vaccine subtypes/lineages was also not significantly associated with severity and complication. Immunity against influenza subtypes/lineages included in the 2020-2021 vaccine was not associated with a lower 3-month all-cause mortality among COVID-19 hospitalized patients.Trial registration: The study was approved by a hospital committee with competency for research not requiring approval by an institutional review board (Tours University Medical Center, Tours, France: reference: 2021_015). All patients give the informed consent.

Microglial activation, tau and amyloid deposition in TREM2 p.R47H carriers and mild cognitive impairment patients: a multi-modal/multi-tracer PET/MRI imaging study with influenza vaccine immune challenge

BACKGROUND

Microglia are increasingly understood to play an important role in the pathogenesis of Alzheimer's disease. The rs75932628 (p.R47H) TREM2 variant is a well-established risk factor for Alzheimer's disease. TREM2 is a microglial cell surface receptor. In this multi-modal/multi-tracer PET/MRI study we investigated the effect of TREM2 p.R47H carrier status on microglial activation, tau and amyloid deposition, brain structure and cognitive profile.

METHODS

We compared TREM2 p.R47H carriers (n = 8; median age = 62.3) and participants with mild cognitive impairment (n = 8; median age = 70.7). Participants underwent two [18F]DPA-714 PET/MRI scans to assess TSPO signal, indicative of microglial activation, before and after receiving the seasonal influenza vaccination, which was used as an immune stimulant. Participants also underwent [18F]florbetapir and [18F]AV1451 PET scans to assess amyloid and tau burden, respectively. Regional tau and TSPO signal were calculated for regions of interest linked to Braak stage. An additional comparison imaging healthy control group (n = 8; median age = 45.5) had a single [18F]DPA-714 PET/MRI. An expanded group of participants underwent neuropsychological testing, to determine if TREM2 status influenced clinical phenotype.

RESULTS

Compared to participants with mild cognitive impairment, TREM2 carriers had lower TSPO signal in Braak II (P = 0.04) and Braak III (P = 0.046) regions, despite having a similar burden of tau and amyloid. There were trends to suggest reduced microglial activation following influenza vaccine in TREM2 carriers. Tau deposition in the Braak VI region was higher in TREM2 carriers (P = 0.04). Furthermore, compared to healthy controls TREM2 carriers had smaller caudate (P = 0.02), total brain (P = 0.049) and white matter volumes (P = 0.02); and neuropsychological assessment revealed worse ADAS-Cog13 (P = 0.03) and Delayed Matching to Sample (P = 0.007) scores.

CONCLUSIONS

TREM2 p.R47H carriers had reduced levels of microglial activation in brain regions affected early in the Alzheimer's disease course and differences in brain structure and cognition. Changes in microglial response may underlie the increased Alzheimer's disease risk in TREM2 p.R47H carriers. Future therapeutic agents in Alzheimer's disease should aim to enhance protective microglial actions.

Asymmetrical Bi-antennary Glycans Prepared by a Stop-and-Go Strategy Reveal Receptor Binding Evolution of Human Influenza A Viruses

Glycan binding properties of respiratory viruses have been difficult to probe due to a lack of biological relevant glycans for binding studies. Here, a stop-and-go chemoenzymatic methodology is presented that gave access to a panel of 32 asymmetrical bi-antennary N-glycans having various numbers of N-acetyl lactosamine (LacNAc) repeating units capped by α2,3- or α2,6-sialosides resembling structures found in airway tissues. It exploits that the branching enzymes MGAT1 and MGAT2 can utilize unnatural UDP-2-deoxy-2-trifluoro-N-acetamido-glucose (UDP-GlcNTFA) as donor. The TFA moiety of the resulting glycans can be hydrolyzed to give GlcNH2 at one of the antennae that temporarily blocks extension by glycosyl transferases. The N-glycans were printed as a microarray that was probed for receptor binding specificities of evolutionary distinct human A(H3N2) and A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses. It was found that not only the sialoside type but also the length of the LacNAc chain and presentation at the α1,3-antenna of N-glycans is critical for binding. Early A(H3N2) viruses bound to 2,6-sialosides at a single LacNAc moiety at the α1,3-antenna whereas later viruses required the sialoside to be presented at a tri-LacNAc moiety. Surprisingly, most of the A(H3N2) viruses that appeared after 2021 regained binding capacity to sialosides presented at a di-LacNAc moiety. As a result, these viruses agglutinate erythrocytes again, commonly employed for antigenic characterization of influenza viruses. Human A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses have similar receptor binding properties as recent A(H3N2) viruses. The data indicates that an asymmetric N-glycan having 2,6-sialoside at a di-LacNAc moiety is a commonly employed receptor by human influenza A viruses.

Population immunity predicts evolutionary trajectories of SARS-CoV-2

The large-scale evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 virus has been marked by rapid turnover of genetic clades. New variants show intrinsic changes, notably increased transmissibility, and antigenic changes that reduce cross-immunity induced by previous infections or vaccinations. How this functional variation shapes global evolution has remained unclear. Here, we establish a predictive fitness model for SARS-CoV-2 that integrates antigenic and intrinsic selection. The model is informed by tracking of time-resolved sequence data, epidemiological records, and cross-neutralization data of viral variants. Our inference shows that immune pressure, including contributions of vaccinations and previous infections, has become the dominant force driving the recent evolution of SARS-CoV-2. The fitness model can serve continued surveillance in two ways. First, it successfully predicts the short-term evolution of circulating strains and flags emerging variants likely to displace the previously predominant variant. Second, it predicts likely antigenic profiles of successful escape variants prior to their emergence.

Mendelian randomization study on the causal effect of serum IgA levels on H7N9 avian influenza A virus susceptibility

Avian influenza A viruses (IAVs) that cross the species barrier to infect humans have the potential to initiate a new pandemic. However, the host factors influencing avian IAV infection remain poorly understood. To address this knowledge gap, we conducted a two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis by integrating our in-house genome-wide association study (GWAS) of avian IAV H7N9 susceptibility (with 217 cases and 116 controls) with the largest GWAS of serum IgA levels to date (sample size 41 263). Using the inverse-variance weighted (IVW) method, we discovered that genetically decreased serum IgA levels were associated with an increased risk of H7N9 infection (β = -2.528, 95% confidence interval [CI]: -4.572 to -0.484; p = 0.015). Consistent results were obtained from three other MR methods, including robust IVW estimation (β = -2.506, 95% CI: -4.109 to -0.902; p = 0.002), generalized summary-data-based MR (GSMR) (β = -2.238, 95% CI: -4.106 to -0.602; p = 0.019), and MR-pleiotropy residual sum and outlier (MR-PRESSO) (β = -2.528, 95% CI: -4.396 to -0.892; p = 0.026). In conclusion, our analysis provided compelling evidence support a causal relationship between genetically predicted serum IgA levels and avian IAV H7N9 susceptibility.

Individual variation in vaccine immune response can produce bimodal distributions of protection

The ability for vaccines to protect against infectious diseases varies among individuals, but computational models employed to inform policy typically do not account for this variation. Here we examine this issue: we implement a model of vaccine efficacy developed in the context of SARS-CoV-2 in order to evaluate the general implications of modelling correlates of protection on the individual level. Due to high levels of variation in immune response, the distributions of individual-level protection emerging from this model tend to be highly dispersed, and are often bimodal. We describe the specification of the model, provide an intuitive parameterisation, and comment on its general robustness. We show that the model can be viewed as an intermediate between the typical approaches that consider the mode of vaccine action to be either "all-or-nothing" or "leaky". Our view based on this analysis is that individual variation in correlates of protection is an important consideration that may be crucial to designing and implementing models for estimating population-level impacts of vaccination programs.

Heterologous prime-boost H1N1 vaccination exacerbates disease following challenge with a mismatched H1N2 influenza virus in the swine model

Influenza A viruses (IAVs) pose a significant threat to both human and animal health. Developing IAV vaccine strategies able to elicit broad heterologous protection against antigenically diverse IAV strains is pivotal in effectively controlling the disease. The goal of this study was to examine the immunogenicity and protective efficacy of diverse H1N1 influenza vaccine strategies including monovalent, bivalent, and heterologous prime-boost vaccination regimens, against a mismatched H1N2 swine influenza virus. Five groups were homologous prime-boost vaccinated with either an oil-adjuvanted whole-inactivated virus (WIV) monovalent A/swine/Georgia/27480/2019 (GA19) H1N2 vaccine, a WIV monovalent A/sw/Minnesota/A02636116/2021 (MN21) H1N1 vaccine, a WIV monovalent A/California/07/2009 (CA09) H1N1, a WIV bivalent vaccine composed of CA09 and MN21, or adjuvant only (mock-vaccinated group). A sixth group was prime-vaccinated with CA09 WIV and boosted with MN21 WIV (heterologous prime-boost group). Four weeks post-boost pigs were intranasally and intratracheally challenged with A/swine/Georgia/27480/2019, an H1N2 swine IAV field isolate. Vaccine-induced protection was evaluated based on five critical parameters: (i) hemagglutination inhibiting (HAI) antibody responses, (ii) clinical scores, (iii) virus titers in nasal swabs and respiratory tissue homogenates, (iv) BALf cytology, and (v) pulmonary pathology. While all vaccination regimens induced seroprotective titers against homologous viruses, heterologous prime-boost vaccination failed to enhance HAI responses against the homologous vaccine strains compared to monovalent vaccine regimens and did not expand the scope of cross-reactive antibody responses against antigenically distinct swine and human IAVs. Mismatched vaccination regimens not only failed to confer clinical and virological protection post-challenge but also exacerbated disease and pathology. In particular, heterologous-boosted pigs showed prolonged clinical disease and increased pulmonary pathology compared to mock-vaccinated pigs. Our results demonstrated that H1-specific heterologous prime-boost vaccination, rather than enhancing cross-protection, worsened the clinical outcome and pathology after challenge with the antigenically distant A/swine/Georgia/27480/2019 strain.

Survival at older ages: are greater influenza antibody titers protective?

Antibodies are a core element of the immune system's defense against infectious diseases. We hypothesize that antibody titres might therefore be an important predictor of survival in older individuals. This is important because biomarkers that robustly measure survival have proved elusive, despite their potential utility in health care settings. We present evidence supporting the hypothesis that influenza antibody titres are associated with overall survival of older individuals, and indicate a role for biological sex in modulating this association. Since antibody titres can be modulated by vaccination, these results have important implications for public health policy on influenza control in aging populations.

Adenoviral-vectored epigraph vaccine elicits robust, durable, and protective immunity against H3 influenza A virus in swine

Current methods of vaccination against swine Influenza A Virus (IAV-S) in pigs are infrequently updated, induce strain-specific responses, and have a limited duration of protection. Here, we characterize the onset and duration of adaptive immune responses after vaccination with an adenoviral-vectored Epigraph vaccine. In this longitudinal study we observed robust and durable antibody responses that remained above protective titers six months after vaccination. We further identified stable levels of antigen-specific T cell responses that remained detectable in the absence of antigen stimulation. Antibody isotyping revealed robust class switching from IgM to IgG induced by Epigraph vaccination, while the commercial comparator vaccine failed to induce strong antibody class switching. Swine were challenged six months after initial vaccination, and Epigraph-vaccinated animals demonstrated significant protection from microscopic lesion development in the trachea and lungs, reduced duration of viral shedding, lower presence of infectious virus and viral antigens in the lungs, and significant recall of antigen-specific T cell responses following challenge. The results obtained from this study are useful in determining the kinetics of adaptive immune responses after vaccination with adjuvanted whole inactivated virus vaccines compared to adenoviral vectored vaccines and contribute to the continued efforts of creating a universal IAV-S vaccine.

Recent updates on correlates of vaccine-induced protection

Correlates of protection are key for vaccine development against any pathogen. In this paper we summarize recent information about correlates for vaccines against dengue, Ebola, influenza, pneumococcal, respiratory syncytial virus, rotavirus, shigella, tuberculosis and Zika virus.

Consumption of yogurt fermented with Lactobacillus delbrueckii ssp. bulgaricus OLL1073R-1 augments serum antibody titers against seasonal influenza vaccine in healthy adults

Seasonal influenza is a major upper respiratory tract infection occurring in winter. Vaccination is the best method for preventing this infection. We conducted two randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials to examine whether consumption of yogurt fermented with Lactobacillus delbrueckii ssp. bulgaricus OLL1073R-1, which has been reported to reduce the risk of catching the common cold, augments serum antibody titers against seasonal influenza vaccines. In the first trial, which included university students, serum antibody titers against influenza A (H3N2) and B viruses were significantly higher in the yogurt group than in the placebo group. According to the guidelines established by the European Medicines Agency (EMA) for the assessment of vaccines, the seroconversion rate and mean geometric increase of influenza A (H3N2) and seroprotection of influenza B met the criteria only in the yogurt group. In the second trial, which included healthy adults, serum antibody titers against influenza A (H1N1) and B viruses were significantly higher in the yogurt group than in the placebo group. The seroconversion rate and mean geometric increase of influenza B met the EMA criteria only in the yogurt group. Furthermore, the cumulative days of ill health, such as throat complaints, upper respiratory inflammation, and cold, were significantly lower in the yogurt group than in the placebo group. Therefore, daily intake of yogurt fermented with L. bulgaricus OLL1073R-1 could reduce the duration of symptoms caused by respiratory infections and act as a mucosal adjuvant enhancing acquired immune responses against vaccines, leading to the improvement of public health.

Immunological non-inferiority and safety of a quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccine versus two trivalent inactivated influenza vaccines in China: Results from two studies

WHO UNIVERSAL TRIAL NUMBERS (UTNS)

U1111-1174-4615 and U1111-1174-4698.

CLINICALTRIALS.GOV

NCT04210349 and NCT03430089.

Potential impacts of prolonged absence of influenza virus circulation on subsequent epidemics

Background

During the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, the circulation of seasonal influenza viruses was unprecedentedly low. This led to concerns that the lack of immune stimulation to influenza viruses combined with waning antibody titres could lead to increased susceptibility to influenza in subsequent seasons, resulting in larger and more severe epidemics.

Methods

We analyzed historical influenza virus epidemiological data from 2003-2019 to assess the historical frequency of near-absence of seasonal influenza virus circulation and its impact on the size and severity of subsequent epidemics. Additionally, we measured haemagglutination inhibition-based antibody titres against seasonal influenza viruses using longitudinal serum samples from 165 healthy adults, collected before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, and estimated how antibody titres against seasonal influenza waned during the first two years of the pandemic.

Findings

Low country-level prevalence of influenza virus (sub)types over one or more years occurred frequently before the COVID-19 pandemic and had relatively small impacts on subsequent epidemic size and severity. Additionally, antibody titres against seasonal influenza viruses waned negligibly during the first two years of the pandemic.

Interpretation

The commonly held notion that lulls in influenza virus circulation, as observed during the COVID-19 pandemic, will lead to larger and/or more severe subsequent epidemics might not be fully warranted, and it is likely that post-lull seasons will be similar in size and severity to pre-lull seasons.

Funding

European Research Council, Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research, Royal Dutch Academy of Sciences, Public Health Service of Amsterdam.

Research in context

Evidence before this study: During the first years of the COVID-19 pandemic, the incidence of seasonal influenza was unusually low, leading to widespread concerns of exceptionally large and/or severe influenza epidemics in the coming years. We searched PubMed and Google Scholar using a combination of search terms (i.e., "seasonal influenza", "SARS-CoV-2", "COVID-19", "low incidence", "waning rates", "immune protection") and critically considered published articles and preprints that studied or reviewed the low incidence of seasonal influenza viruses since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic and its potential impact on future seasonal influenza epidemics. We found a substantial body of work describing how influenza virus circulation was reduced during the COVID-19 pandemic, and a number of studies projecting the size of future epidemics, each positing that post-pandemic epidemics are likely to be larger than those observed pre-pandemic. However, it remains unclear to what extent the assumed relationship between accumulated susceptibility and subsequent epidemic size holds, and it remains unknown to what extent antibody levels have waned during the COVID-19 pandemic. Both are potentially crucial for accurate prediction of post-pandemic epidemic sizes.Added value of this study: We find that the relationship between epidemic size and severity and the magnitude of circulation in the preceding season(s) is decidedly more complex than assumed, with the magnitude of influenza circulation in preceding seasons having only limited effects on subsequent epidemic size and severity. Rather, epidemic size and severity are dominated by season-specific effects unrelated to the magnitude of circulation in the preceding season(s). Similarly, we find that antibody levels waned only modestly during the COVID-19 pandemic.Implications of all the available evidence: The lack of changes observed in the patterns of measured antibody titres against seasonal influenza viruses in adults and nearly two decades of epidemiological data suggest that post-pandemic epidemic sizes will likely be similar to those observed pre-pandemic, and challenge the commonly held notion that the widespread concern that the near-absence of seasonal influenza virus circulation during the COVID-19 pandemic, or potential future lulls, are likely to result in larger influenza epidemics in subsequent years.

The Four Ws of the Fourth Dose COVID-19 Vaccines: Why, Who, When and What

With the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants, vaccine breakthrough is a major public health concern. With evidence of reduced neutralizing antibody activity against Omicron variants and fading antibody level after the third-dose booster vaccine, there are suggestions of a fourth-dose booster vaccine. In this review, the benefits of a fourth-dose booster is evaluated from four perspectives, including the effectiveness of the booster dose against virus variants (Why), susceptible groups of individuals who may benefit from additional booster dose (Who), selection of vaccine platforms to better enhance immunity (What) and appropriate intervals between the third and fourth booster dose (When). In summary, a fourth dose can temporarily boost the immune response against SARS-CoV-2 variants and can be considered for specific groups of individuals. A heterologous vaccine strategy using mRNA vaccine in individuals primed with inactivated vaccine may boost immunity against variants. The timing of the fourth dose should be individualized but an interval of 4 months after the third-dose booster is appropriate. A universal fourth booster dose is not necessary.

Characterization and Immunogenicity of Influenza H7N9 Vaccine Antigens Produced Using a Serum-Free Suspension MDCK Cell-Based Platform

Human infections with avian-origin H7N9 influenza A viruses were first reported in China, and an approximately 38% human mortality rate was described across six waves from February 2013 to September 2018. Vaccination is one of the most cost-effective ways to reduce morbidity and mortality during influenza epidemics and pandemics. Egg-based platforms for the production of influenza vaccines are labor-intensive and unable to meet the surging demand during pandemics. Therefore, cell culture-based technology is becoming the alternative strategy for producing influenza vaccines. The current influenza H7N9 vaccine virus (NIBRG-268), a reassortant virus from A/Anhui/1/2013 (H7N9) and egg-adapted A/PR/8/34 (H1N1) viruses, could grow efficiently in embryonated eggs but not mammalian cells. Moreover, a freezing-dry formulation of influenza H7N9 vaccines with long-term stability will be desirable for pandemic preparedness, as the occurrence of influenza H7N9 pandemics is not predictable. In this study, we adapted a serum-free anchorage-independent suspension Madin-Darby Canine Kidney (MDCK) cell line for producing influenza H7N9 vaccines and compared the biochemical characteristics and immunogenicity of three influenza H7N9 vaccine antigens produced using the suspension MDCK cell-based platform without freeze-drying (S-WO-H7N9), the suspension MDCK cell-based platform with freeze-drying (S-W-H7N9) or the egg-based platform with freeze-drying (E-W-H7N9). We demonstrated these three vaccine antigens have comparable biochemical characteristics. In addition, these three vaccine antigens induced robust and comparable neutralizing antibody (NT; geometric mean between 1016 and 4064) and hemagglutinin-inhibition antibody (HI; geometric mean between 640 and 1613) titers in mice. In conclusion, the serum-free suspension MDCK cell-derived freeze-dried influenza H7N9 vaccine is highly immunogenic in mice, and clinical development is warranted.

Quadrivalent Vaccines for the Immunization of Adults against Influenza: A Systematic Review of Randomized Controlled Trials

Vaccination is the most effective intervention to prevent influenza. Adults at risk of complications are among the targets of the vaccination campaigns and can be vaccinated with different types of quadrivalent influenza vaccines (QIVs). In the light of assessing the relative immunogenicity and efficacy of different QIVs, a systematic review was performed. Randomized controlled trials conducted in adults aged 18-64 years until 30 March 2021 were searched through three databases (Medline, Cochrane Library and Scopus). Twenty-four RCTs were eventually included. After data extraction, a network meta-analysis was not applicable due to the lack of common comparators. However, in the presence of at least two studies, single meta-analyses were performed to evaluate immunogenicity and efficacy; on the contrary, data from single studies were considered. Seroconversion rate for H1N1 was higher for standard QIVs, while for the remaining strains it was higher for low-dose adjuvanted QIVs. For seroprotection rate, the recombinant vaccine recorded the highest values for H3N2, while for the other strains, the cell-based QIVs achieved better results. In general, standard and cell-based QIVs showed an overall good immunogenicity profile. Nevertheless, as a relative comparative analysis was not possible, further research would be deserved.

Analysis of Viral and Host Factors on Immunogenicity of 2018, 2019, and 2020 Southern Hemisphere Seasonal Trivalent Inactivated Influenza Vaccine in Adults in Brazil

Annual vaccination against influenza is the best tool to prevent deaths and hospitalizations. Regular updates of trivalent inactivated influenza vaccines (TIV) are necessary due to high mutation rates in influenza viruses. TIV effectiveness is affected by antigenic mismatches, age, previous immunity, and other host factors. Studying TIV effectiveness annually in different populations is critical. The serological responses to Southern-Hemisphere TIV and circulating influenza strains were evaluated in 2018−2020 among Brazilian volunteers, using hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assays. Post-vaccination titers were corrected to account for pre-vaccination titers. Our population achieved >83% post-vaccination seroprotection levels, whereas seroconversion rates ranged from 10% to 46%. TIV significantly enhanced antibody titers and seroprotection against all prior and contemporary vaccine and circulating strains tested. Strong cross-reactive responses were detected, especially between H1N1 subtypes. A/Singapore/INFIMH-16-0019/2016, included in the 2018 TIV, induced the poorest response. Significant titer and seroprotection reductions were observed 6 and 12 months after vaccination. Age had a slight effect on TIV response, whereas previous vaccination was associated with lower seroconversion rates and titers. Despite this, TIV induced high seroprotection for all strains, in all groups. Regular TIV evaluations, based on regional influenza strain circulation, should be conducted and the factors affecting response studied.

An epitope-optimized human H3N2 influenza vaccine induces broadly protective immunity in mice and ferrets

There is a crucial need for an improved H3N2 influenza virus vaccine due to low vaccine efficacy rates and increased morbidity and mortality associated with H3N2-dominated influenza seasons. Here, we utilize a computational design strategy to produce epitope-optimized, broadly cross-reactive H3 hemagglutinins in order to create a universal H3N2 influenza vaccine. The Epigraph immunogens are designed to maximize the viral population frequency of epitopes incorporated into the immunogen. We compared our Epigraph H3 vaccine to the traditional egg-based inactivated influenza vaccine from 2018-19, FluZone. Epigraph vaccination-induced stronger cross-reactive antibody responses than FluZone against 18 H3N2 viruses isolated from 1968 to 2019 in both mice and ferrets, with protective hemagglutination inhibition titers against 93-100% of the contemporary H3N2 strains compared to only 27% protection measured from FluZone. In addition, Epigraph vaccination-induced strong cross-reactive T-cell immunity which significantly contributes to protection against lethal influenza virus infection. Finally, Epigraph vaccination protected ferrets from influenza disease after challenge with two H3N2 viruses. The superior cross-reactive immunity induced by these Epigraph immunogens supports their development as a universal H3N2 influenza vaccine.

Waning Vaccine Protection against Influenza among Department of Defense Adult Beneficiaries in the United States, 2016–2017 through 2019–2020 Influenza Seasons

The objective of this study was to assess inactivated influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) by time since vaccination in adults aged ≥ 18 years using a test-negative design. All data were obtained from the US Department of Defense Global Respiratory Pathogen Surveillance Program over four influenza seasons, from 2016–2017 through 2019–2020. Analyses were performed to estimate VE using a generalized linear mixed model with logit link and binomial distribution. The adjusted overall VE against any medically attended, laboratory-confirmed influenza decreased from 50% (95% confidence interval (CI): 41–58%) in adults vaccinated 14 to 74 days prior to the onset of influenza-like illness (ILI), to 39% (95% CI: 31–47%) in adults vaccinated 75 to 134 days prior to the onset of ILI, then to 17% (95% CI: 0–32%) in adults vaccinated 135 to 194 days prior to the onset of ILI. The pattern and magnitude of VE change with increasing time since vaccination differed by influenza (sub)types. Compared to VE against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and influenza B, the decrease of VE against influenza A(H3N2) was more pronounced with increasing time since vaccination. In conclusion, based on the analysis of 2536 influenza-positive cases identified from 7058 adults over multiple influenza seasons, the effectiveness of inactivated influenza vaccine wanes within 180 days after 14 days of influenza vaccination.

Inactivated Whole Virus Particle Influenza Vaccine Induces Anti-Neuraminidase Antibodies That May Contribute to Cross-Protection against Heterologous Virus Infection

Despite the use of vaccines, seasonal influenza remains a risk to public health. We previously proposed the inactivated whole virus particle vaccine (WPV) as an alternative to the widely used split vaccine (SV) for the control of seasonal and pandemic influenza based on the superior priming potency of WPV to that of SV. In this study, we further examined and compared the immunological potency of monovalent WPV and SV of A/California/7/2009 (X-179A) (H1N1) pdm09 (CA/09) to generate immune responses against heterologous viruses, A/Singapore/GP1908/2015 (IVR-180) (H1N1) pdm09 (SG/15), and A/duck/Hokkaido/Vac-3/2007 (H5N1) (DH/07) in mice. Following challenge with a lethal dose of heterologous SG/15, lower virus titer in the lungs and milder weight loss were observed in WPV-vaccinated mice than in SV-vaccinated ones. To investigate the factors responsible for the differences in the protective effect against SG/15, the sera of vaccinated mice were analyzed by hemagglutination-inhibition (HI) and neuraminidase-inhibition (NI) assays to evaluate the antibodies induced against viral hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA), respectively. While the two vaccines induced similar levels of HI antibodies against SG/15 after the second vaccination, only WPV-vaccinated mice induced significantly higher titers of NI antibodies against the strain. Furthermore, given the significant elevation of NI antibody titers against DH/07, an H5N1 avian influenza virus, WPV was also demonstrated to induce NA-inhibiting antibodies that recognize NA of divergent strains. This could be explained by the higher conservation of epitopes of NA among strains than for HA. Taking these findings together, NA-specific antibodies induced by WPV may have contributed to better protection from infection with heterologous influenza virus SG/15, compared with SV. The present results indicate that WPV is an effective vaccine for inducing antibodies against both HA and NA of heterologous viruses and may be a useful vaccine to conquer vaccine strain mismatch.

Is annual vaccination best? A modelling study of influenza vaccination strategies in children

INTRODUCTION

Annual vaccination of children against influenza is a key component of vaccination programs in many countries. However, past infection and vaccination may affect an individual's susceptibility to infection. Little research has evaluated whether annual vaccination is the best strategy. Using the United Kingdom as our motivating example, we developed a framework to assess the impact of different childhood vaccination strategies, specifically annual and biennial (every other year), on attack rate and expected number of infections.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We present a multi-annual, individual-based, stochastic, force of infection model that accounts for individual exposure histories and disease/vaccine dynamics influencing susceptibility. We simulate birth cohorts that experience yearly influenza epidemics and follow them until age 18 to determine attack rates and the number of infections during childhood. We perform simulations under baseline conditions, with an assumed vaccination coverage of 44%, to compare annual vaccination to no and biennial vaccination. We relax our baseline assumptions to explore how our model assumptions impact vaccination program performance. At baseline, we observed less than half the number of infections between the ages 2 and 10 under annual vaccination in children who had been vaccinated at least half the time compared to no vaccination. When averaged over all ages 0-18, the number of infections under annual vaccination was 2.07 (2.06, 2.08) compared to 2.63 (2.62, 2.64) under no vaccination, and 2.38 (2.37, 2.40) under biennial vaccination. When we introduced a penalty for repeated exposures, we observed a decrease in the difference in infections between the vaccination strategies. Specifically, the difference in childhood infections under biennial compared to annual vaccination decreased from 0.31 to 0.04 as exposure penalty increased.

CONCLUSION

Our results indicate that while annual vaccination averts more childhood infections than biennial vaccination, this difference is small. Our work confirms the value of annual vaccination in children, even with modest vaccination coverage, but also shows that similar benefits of vaccination may be obtained by implementing a biennial vaccination program.

AUTHOR SUMMARY

Many countries include annual vaccination of children against influenza in their vaccination programs. In the United Kingdom (UK), annual vaccination of children aged of 2 to 10 against influenza is recommended. However, little research has evaluated whether annual vaccination is the best strategy, while accounting for how past infection and vaccination may affect an individual's susceptibility to infection in the current influenza season. Prior work has suggested that there may be a negative effect of repeated vaccination. In this work we developed a stochastic, individual-based model to assess the impact of repeated vaccination strategies on childhood infections. Specifically, we first compare annual vaccination to no vaccination and then annual vaccination to biennial (every other year) vaccination. We use the UK as our motivating example. We found that an annual vaccination strategy resulted in the fewest childhood infections, followed by biennial vaccination. The difference in number of childhood infections between the different vaccination strategies decreased when we introduced a penalty for repeated exposures. Our work confirms the value of annual vaccination in children, but also shows that similar benefits of vaccination can be obtained by implementing a biennial vaccination program, particularly when there is a negative effect of repeated vaccinations.

Determining Existing Human Population Immunity as Part of Assessing Influenza Pandemic Risk

Zoonotic influenza infections continue to threaten human health. Ongoing surveillance and risk assessment of animal viruses are needed for pandemic preparedness, and population immunity is an important component of risk assessment. We determined age-stratified hemagglutinin inhibition seroprevalence against 5 swine influenza viruses circulating in Hong Kong and Guangzhou in China. Using hemagglutinin inhibition seroprevalence and titers, we modeled the effect of population immunity on the basic reproduction number (R₀) if each virus were to become transmissible among humans. Among 353 individual serum samples, we reported low seroprevalence for triple-reassortant H1N2 and Eurasian avian-like H1N1 influenza viruses, which would reduce R₀ by only 18%–20%. The smallest R₀ needed to cause a pandemic was 1.22–1.24, meaning existing population immunity would be insufficient to block the spread of these H1N1 or H1N2 variants. For human-origin H3N2, existing population immunity could suppress R₀ by 47%, thus reducing pandemic risk.

Drop the Needle; A Temperature Stable Oral Tablet Vaccine Is Protective against Respiratory Viral Pathogens

To effectively combat emerging infections and prevent future pandemics, next generation vaccines must be developed quickly, manufactured rapidly, and most critically, administered easily. Next generation vaccines need innovative approaches that prevent infection, severe disease, and reduce community transmission of respiratory pathogens such as influenza and SARS-CoV-2. Here we review an oral vaccine tablet that can be manufactured and released in less than 16 weeks of antigen design and deployed without the need for cold chain. The oral Ad5 modular vaccine platform utilizes a non-replicating adenoviral vector (rAd5) containing a novel molecular TLR3 adjuvant that is delivered by tablet, not by needle. This enterically coated, room temperature-stable vaccine tablet elicits robust antigen-specific IgA in the gastrointestinal and respiratory tracts and upregulates mucosal homing adhesion molecules on circulating B and T cells. Several influenza antigens have been tested using this novel vaccine approach and demonstrated efficacy in both preclinical animal models and in phase I/II clinical trials, including in a human challenge study. This oral rAd5 vaccine platform technology offers a promising new avenue for aiding in rapid pandemic preparedness and equitable worldwide vaccine distribution.

Elimination of receptor binding by influenza hemagglutinin improves vaccine-induced immunity

The binding of influenza hemagglutinin (HA) to sialic acid (SA) receptors plays a well-defined role in shaping infection but the impact of such binding on vaccine responses has not yet been explored. We generated a virus-like particle (VLP) vaccine bearing the HA of H1N1 A/California/07/09 that is unable to bind to its α(2,6)-linked SA receptor (H1_Y98F-VLP) and compared its immunogenicity and efficacy to a wild-type H1-VLP (H1_WT-VLP) in mice. The H1_Y98F-VLP elicited significantly stronger and more durable antibody responses (hemagglutination inhibition and microneutralization titers) and greater avidity maturation, likely attributable to improved germinal center formation. H1_Y98F-VLP also resulted in a robust population of IL-2⁺TNFα⁺IFNγ⁻ CD4⁺ T cells that correlated with antibody responses. Compared to H1_WT-VLP vaccination, mice immunized with H1_Y98F-VLP had 2.3-log lower lung viral loads and significantly lower pulmonary inflammatory cytokine levels 5 days post-challenge. These findings suggest that abrogation of HA-SA interactions may be a promising strategy to improve the quality and durability of influenza vaccine-induced humoral responses.

Reconstructing antibody dynamics to estimate the risk of influenza virus infection

For >70 years, a 4-fold or greater rise in antibody titer has been used to confirm influenza virus infections in paired sera, despite recognition that this heuristic can lack sensitivity. Here we analyze with a novel Bayesian model a large cohort of 2353 individuals followed for up to 5 years in Hong Kong to characterize influenza antibody dynamics and develop an algorithm to improve the identification of influenza virus infections. After infection, we estimate that hemagglutination-inhibiting (HAI) titers were boosted by 16-fold on average and subsequently decrease by 14% per year. In six epidemics, the infection risks for adults were 3%-19% while the infection risks for children were 1.6-4.4 times higher than that of younger adults. Every two-fold increase in pre-epidemic HAI titer was associated with 19%-58% protection against infection. Our inferential framework clarifies the contributions of age and pre-epidemic HAI titers to characterize individual infection risk.

Analysis of the safety and immunogenicity profile of an azoximer bromide polymer-adjuvanted subunit influenza vaccine

A systematic review of clinical trials conducted with a low-dose inactivated influenza vaccine adjuvanted by azoximer bromide (AZB, Polyoxidonium), was performed to compare vaccine reactogenicity against non-adjuvant vaccines. We also assessed whether lower amounts of antigen per viral strain in AZB-adjuvanted vaccines affected antibody responses. A robust search strategy identified scientific publications reporting 30 clinical trials, comprising data on 11,736 participants and 86 trial arms, for inclusion in the analysis. Local reaction rates (R _lr) appeared to be lower in AZB-adjuvanted vaccine treatment arms versus comparator vaccine treatment arms. Meta‑regression analysis revealed that AZB did not contribute to vaccine reactogenicity. Post-vaccination geometric mean titres in those exposed to AZB-adjuvanted vaccine and comparator vaccine treatment arms were similar in both children and adults aged 18-60 years, implying an antigen-sparing effect by AZB.

Three doses of prototypic SARS-CoV-2 inactivated vaccine induce cross-protection against its variants of concern

Variants are globally emerging very quickly following pandemic prototypic SARS-CoV-2. To evaluate the cross-protection of prototypic SARS-CoV-2 vaccine against its variants, we vaccinated rhesus monkeys with three doses of prototypic SARS-CoV-2 inactivated vaccine, followed by challenging with emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs). These vaccinated animals produced neutralizing antibodies against Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants, although there were certain declinations of geometric mean titer (GMT) as compared with prototypic SARS-CoV-2. Of note, in vivo this prototypic vaccine not only reduced the viral loads in nasal, throat and anal swabs, pulmonary tissues, but also improved the pathological changes in the lung infected by variants of Alpha, Beta, and Delta. In summary, the prototypic SARS-CoV-2 inactivated vaccine in this study protected against VOCs to certain extension, which is of great significance for prevention and control of COVID-19.

A broadly neutralizing human monoclonal antibody against the hemagglutinin of avian influenza virus H7N9

Background:

The new emerging avian influenza A H7N9 virus, causing severe human infection with a mortality rate of around 41%. This study aims to provide a novel treatment option for the prevention and control of H7N9.

Methods:

H7 hemagglutinin (HA)-specific B cells were isolated from peripheral blood plasma cells of the patients previously infected by H7N9 in Jiangsu Province, China. The human monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) were generated by amplification and cloning of these HA-specific B cells. First, all human mAbs were screened for binding activity by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Then, those mAbs, exhibiting potent affinity to recognize H7 HAs were further evaluated by hemagglutination-inhibiting (HAI) and microneutralization in vitro assays. Finally, the lead mAb candidate was selected and tested against the lethal challenge of the H7N9 virus using murine models.

Results:

The mAb 6-137 was able to recognize a panel of H7 HAs with high affinity but not HA of other subtypes, including H1N1 and H3N2. The mAb 6-137 can efficiently inhibit the HA activity in the inactivated H7N9 virus and neutralize 100 tissue culture infectious dose 50 (TCID₅₀) of H7N9 virus (influenza A/Nanjing/1/2013) in vitro, with neutralizing activity as low as 78 ng/mL. In addition, the mAb 6-137 protected the mice against the lethal challenge of H7N9 prophylactically and therapeutically.

Conclusion:

The mAb 6-137 could be an effective antibody as a prophylactic or therapeutic biological treatment for the H7N9 exposure or infection.

Incidence of medically attended influenza and influenza virus infections confirmed by serology in Ningbo City from 2017-2018 to 2019-2020

Objectives

In mainland China, the disease burden of influenza is not yet fully understood. Based on population‐based data, we aimed to estimate incidence rates of medically attended influenza and influenza virus infections in Ningbo City.

Methods

We used data for outpatient acute respiratory illness (OARI) from a platform covering all health and medical institutes in Yingzhou District, Ningbo City. We applied generalized additive regression models to estimate influenza‐associated excess incidence rate of OARI by age. We recruited local residents aged ≥60 years in the autumn of 2019 and conducted follow‐up nearly 9 months later. Every survey, the sera were collected for testing hemagglutination inhibition antibody.

Results

From 2017–2018 to 2019–2020, the annual average of influenza‐associated incidence rate of OARI in all ages was 10.9%. The influenza‐associated incidence rate of OARI was the highest in 2017–2018 (16.9%) and the lowest in 2019–2020 (4.8%). Regularly, influenza‐associated incidence rates of OARI were the highest in children aged 5–14 years (range: 44.1–77.6%) and 0–4 years (range: 8.3–46.6%). The annual average of excess OARI incidence rate in all ages was the highest for influenza B/Yamagata (3.9%). The overall incidence rate of influenza infections indicated by serology in elderly people was 21% during the winter season of 2019–2020.

Conclusions

We identified substantial outpatient influenza burden in all ages in Ningbo. Our cohort study limited in elderly people found that this age group had a high risk of seasonal influenza infections. Our study informs the importance of increasing influenza vaccine coverage in high‐risk population including elderly people.

Cross-Reactivity Conferred by Homologous and Heterologous Prime-Boost A/H5 Influenza Vaccination Strategies in Humans: A Literature Review

Avian influenza viruses from the A/H5 A/goose/Guangdong/1/1996 (GsGd) lineage pose a continuing threat to animal and human health. Since their emergence in 1997, these viruses have spread across multiple continents and have become enzootic in poultry. Additionally, over 800 cases of human infection with A/H5 GsGd viruses have been reported to date, which raises concerns about the potential for a new influenza virus pandemic. The continuous circulation of A/H5 GsGd viruses for over 20 years has resulted in the genetic and antigenic diversification of their hemagglutinin (HA) surface glycoprotein, which poses a serious challenge to pandemic preparedness and vaccine design. In the present article, clinical studies on A/H5 influenza vaccination strategies were reviewed to evaluate the breadth of antibody responses induced upon homologous and heterologous prime-boost vaccination strategies. Clinical data on immunological endpoints were extracted from studies and compiled into a dataset, which was used for the visualization and analysis of the height and breadth of humoral immune responses. Several aspects leading to high immunogenicity and/or cross-reactivity were identified, although the analysis was limited by the heterogeneity in study design and vaccine type used in the included studies. Consequently, crucial questions remain to be addressed in future studies on A/H5 GsGd vaccination strategies.