Modelling adult Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus survival at different temperatures in laboratory and field settings

Ingestion of amoxicillin-clavulanic acid at therapeutic concentration during blood meal impacts Aedes aegypti microbiota and dengue virus transmission

Dengue virus (DENV), mainly transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, is the most prevalent arbovirus worldwide, representing a public health problem in tropical and subtropical countries. In these areas, antibiotic consumption rises which may impact both mosquito microbiota and dengue transmission. Here, we assessed how the ingestion by Ae. aegypti of therapeutic concentrations of amoxicillin-clavulanic Acid association (Amox/Clav), a broad-spectrum antibiotic used to treat febrile symptoms worldwide, impacted its microbiota. We also evaluated whether simultaneous ingestion of antibiotic and DENV impacted Ae. aegypti ability to transmit this virus. We found that Amox/Clav ingestion impacted microbiota composition in Ae. aegypti and we confirmed such impact in field-collected mosquitoes. Furthermore, we observed that Amox/Clav ingestion enhanced DENV dissemination and transmission by this mosquito at 21 days post-DENV exposure. These findings increase our understanding of factors linked to human hosts that may influence dengue transmission dynamics in regions with mass-drug administration programs.

Mitigating dengue incidence through advanced Aedes larval surveillance and control: A successful experience from Pakistan

Dengue fever is a viral disease caused by one of four dengue stereotypes (Flavivirus: Flaviviridae) that are primarily transmitted by Aedes albopictus (Skuse) and Aedes aegypti (L.). To safeguard public health, it is crucial to conduct surveys that examine the factors favouring the presence of these species. Our study surveyed 42 councils across four towns within the Bhakkar district of Punjab Province, by inspecting man-made or natural habitats containing standing water. First, door-to-door surveillance teams from the district health department were assigned to each council to surveillance Aedes species and dengue cases. Second, data collection through surveillance efforts, and validation procedures were implemented, and the verified data was uploaded onto the Dengue Tracking System by Third Party Validation teams. Third, data were analysed to identify factors influencing dengue fever cases. The findings demonstrated the following: (1) Predominantly, instances were discerned among individuals who had a documented history of having travelled beyond the confines of the province. (2) Containers associated with evaporative air coolers and tyre shops were responsible for approximately 30% of the Aedes developmental sites. (4) Variability in temperature was responsible for approximately 45% of the observed differences in the quantity of recorded Aedes mosquito developmental sites. (5) Implementation of dengue prevention initiatives precipitated a 50% reduction in Aedes-positive containers, alongside a notable 70% decline in reported cases of dengue fever during the period spanning 2019 to 2020, while the majority of reported cases were of external origin. Aedes control measures substantially curtailed mosquito populations and lowered vector-virus interactions. Notably, local dengue transmission was eliminated through advanced and effective Aedes control efforts, emphasising the need for persistent surveillance and eradication of larval habitats in affected regions.

Tiger prowling: Distribution modelling for northward-expanding Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in Japan

The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is a significant public health concern owing to its expanding habitat and vector competence. Disease outbreaks attributed to this species have been reported in areas under its invasion, and its northward expansion in Japan has caused concern because of the potential for dengue virus infection in newly populated areas. Accurate prediction of Ae. albopictus distribution is crucial to prevent the spread of the disease. However, limited studies have focused on the prediction of Ae. albopictus distribution in Japan. Herein, we used the random forest model, a machine learning approach, to predict the current and potential future habitat ranges of Ae. albopictus in Japan. The model revealed that these mosquitoes prefer urban areas over forests in Japan on the current map. Under predictions for the future, the species will expand its range to the surrounding areas and eventually reach many areas of northeastern Kanto, Tohoku District, and Hokkaido, with a few variations in different scenarios. However, the affected human population is predicted to decrease owing to the declining birth rate. Anthropogenic and climatic factors contribute to range expansion, and urban size and population have profound impacts. This prediction map can guide responses to the introduction of this species in new areas, advance the spatial knowledge of diseases vectored by it, and mitigate the possible disease burden. To our knowledge, this is the first distribution-modelling prediction for Ae. albopictus with a focus on Japan.

Transmission dynamics of a reaction-advection-diffusion dengue fever model with seasonal developmental durations and intrinsic incubation periods

In this paper, we propose a reaction-advection-diffusion dengue fever model with seasonal developmental durations and intrinsic incubation periods. Firstly, we establish the well-posedness of the model. Secondly, we define the basic reproduction number ℜ 0 for this model and show that ℜ 0 is a threshold parameter: ifℜ 0 < 1 , then the disease-free periodic solution is globally attractive; ifℜ 0 > 1 , the system is uniformly persistent. Thirdly, we study the global attractivity of the positive steady state when the spatial environment is homogeneous and the advection of mosquitoes is ignored. As an example, we use the model to investigate the dengue fever transmission case in Guangdong Province, China, and explore the impact of model parameters on ℜ 0 . Our findings indicate that ignoring seasonality may underestimate ℜ 0 . Additionally, the spatial heterogeneity of transmission may increase the risk of disease transmission, while the increase of seasonal developmental durations, intrinsic incubation periods and advection rates can all reduce the risk of disease transmission.

Estimating the effects of temperature on transmission of the human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum

Despite concern that climate change could increase the human risk to malaria in certain areas, the temperature dependency of malaria transmission is poorly characterized. Here, we use a mechanistic model fitted to experimental data to describe how Plasmodium falciparum infection of the African malaria vector, Anopheles gambiae, is modulated by temperature, including its influences on parasite establishment, conversion efficiency through parasite developmental stages, parasite development rate, and overall vector competence. We use these data, together with estimates of the survival of infected blood-fed mosquitoes, to explore the theoretical influence of temperature on transmission in four locations in Kenya, considering recent conditions and future climate change. Results provide insights into factors limiting transmission in cooler environments and indicate that increases in malaria transmission due to climate warming in areas like the Kenyan Highlands, might be less than previously predicted.

Detection of dengue in German tourists returning from Ibiza, Spain, related to an autochthonous outbreak, August to October 2022

In February 2023, German public health authorities reported two dengue cases (one confirmed, one probable) and four possible cases who travelled to Ibiza, Spain, in late summer/autumn 2022; the infection was probably acquired through mosquito bites. Case 1 visited Ibiza over 1 week in late August with two familial companions; all three developed symptoms the day after returning home. Only Case 1 was tested; dengue virus (DENV) infection was confirmed by presence of NS1 antigen and IgM antibodies. Case 2 travelled to Ibiza with two familial companions for 1 week in early October, and stayed in the same town as Case 1. Case 2 showed symptoms on the day of return, and the familial companions 1 day before and 3 days after return; Case 2 tested positive for DENV IgM. The most probable source case had symptom onset in mid-August, and travelled to a dengue-endemic country prior to a stay in the same municipality of Ibiza for 20 days, until the end of August. Dengue diagnosis was probable based on positive DENV IgM. Aedes albopictus, a competent vector for dengue, has been present in Ibiza since 2014. This is the first report of a local dengue transmission event on Ibiza.

The potential habitat and environmental fitness change of Aedes albopictus in Western Eurasia for 2081-2100

BACKGROUND OBJECTIVES

The range of Aedes albopictus, the most important vector mosquito in Western Eurasia is growing due to climate change. However, it is not known how it will influence the habitats occupied by the species and its environmental fitness within its future range.

METHODS

To study this question, the habitat characteristic of the mosquito was investigated for 2081-2100.

RESULTS

The models suggest a notable future spread of the mosquito in the direction of Northern Europe and the parallel northward and westward shift of the southern and eastern potential occurrences of the mosquito. The models suggest a notable increase in generation numbers in the warmest quarter, which can reach 4-5 generations in the peri-Mediterranean region. However, both the joint survival rate of larvae and pupae and the number of survival days of adults in the warmest quarter exhibit decreasing values, as does the potential disappearance of the mosquito in the southern regions of Europe and Asia Minor, along with the growing atmospheric CO2 concentration-based scenarios.

INTERPRETATION CONCLUSION

While in 1970-2000 Aedes albopictus mainly occupied the hot and warm summer temperate regions of Europe, the species will inhabit dominantly the cool summer temperate (oceanic) and the humid continental climate territories of North and North-Eastern Europe in 2081-2100.

Climate-influenced vector-borne diseases in Africa: a call to empower the next generation of African researchers for sustainable solutions

We look at the link between climate change and vector-borne diseases in low- and middle-income countries in Africa. The large endemicity and escalating threat of diseases such as malaria and arboviral diseases, intensified by climate change, disproportionately affects vulnerable communities globally. We highlight the urgency of prioritizing research and development, advocating for robust scientific inquiry to promote adaptation strategies, and the vital role that the next generation of African research leaders will play in addressing these challenges. Despite significant challenges such as funding shortages within countries, various pan-African-oriented funding bodies such as the African Academy of Sciences, the Africa Research Excellence Fund, the Wellcome Trust, the U.S. National Institutes of Health, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation as well as initiatives such as the African Research Initiative for Scientific Excellence and the Pan-African Mosquito Control Association, have empowered (or are empowering) these researchers by supporting capacity building activities, including continental and global networking, skill development, mentoring, and African-led research. This article underscores the urgency of increased national investment in research, proposing the establishment of research government agencies to drive evidence-based interventions. Collaboration between governments and scientific communities, sustained by pan-African funding bodies, is crucial. Through these efforts, African nations are likely to enhance the resilience and adaptive capacity of their systems and communities by navigating these challenges effectively, fostering scientific excellence and implementing transformative solutions against climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases.

Modelling the dynamic basic reproduction number of dengue based on MOI of Aedes albopictus derived from a multi-site field investigation in Guangzhou, a subtropical region

BACKGROUND

More than half of the global population lives in areas at risk of dengue (DENV) transmission. Developing an efficient risk prediction system can help curb dengue outbreaks, but multiple variables, including mosquito-based surveillance indicators, still constrain our understanding. Mosquito or oviposition positive index (MOI) has been utilized in field surveillance to monitor the wild population density of Aedes albopictus in Guangzhou since 2005.

METHODS

Based on the mosquito surveillance data using Mosq-ovitrap collection and human landing collection (HLC) launched at 12 sites in Guangzhou from 2015 to 2017, we established a MOI-based model of the basic dengue reproduction number (R0) using the classical Ross-Macdonald framework combined with a linear mixed-effects model.

RESULTS

During the survey period, the mean MOI and adult mosquito density index (ADI) using HLC for Ae. albopictus were 12.96 ± 17.78 and 16.79 ± 55.92, respectively. The R0 estimated from the daily ADI (ADID) showed a significant seasonal variation. A 10-unit increase in MOI was associated with 1.08-fold (95% CI 1.05, 1.11) ADID and an increase of 0.14 (95% CI 0.05, 0.23) in the logarithmic transformation of R0. MOI-based R0 of dengue varied by month and average monthly temperature. During the active period of Ae. albopictus from April to November in Guangzhou region, a high risk of dengue outbreak was predicted by the MOI-based R0 model, especially from August to October, with the predicted R0 > 1. Meanwhile, from December to March, the estimates of MOI-based R0 were < 1.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study enriched our knowledge about mosquito-based surveillance indicators and indicated that the MOI of Ae. albopictus could be valuable for application in estimating the R0 of dengue using a statistical model. The MOI-based R0 model prediction of the risk of dengue transmission varied by month and temperature in Guangzhou. Our findings lay a foundation for further development of a complex efficient dengue risk prediction system.

Unexpected behavioural adaptation of yellow fever mosquitoes in response to high temperatures

Temperature is a major ecological driver of mosquito-borne diseases as it influences the life-history of both the mosquito and the pathogen harboured within it. Understanding the mosquitoes' thermal biology is essential to inform risk prediction models of such diseases. Mosquitoes can respond to temperatures by microhabitat selection through thermal preference. However, it has not yet been considered that mosquitoes are likely to adapt to changing temperatures, for example during climate change, and alter their preference over evolutionary time. We investigated this by rearing six cohorts of the yellow fever mosquito Aedes aegypti at two temperatures (24 °C, 30 °C) for 20 generations and used these cohorts to explicitly separate the effects of long-term evolution and within-generation acclimation on their thermal preferences in a thermal gradient of 20-35 °C. We found that warm-evolved mosquitoes spent 31.5% less time at high temperatures, which affects their efficiency as a vector. This study reveals the complex interplay of experimental evolution, rearing temperatures, and thermal preference in Ae. aegypti mosquitoes. It highlights the significance of incorporating mosquito microhabitat selection in disease transmission models, especially in the context of climate change.

Development of a regional climate change model for Aedes vigilax and Aedes camptorhynchus (Diptera: Culicidae) in Perth, Western Australia

Mosquito-borne disease is a significant public health issue and within Australia Ross River virus (RRV) is the most reported. This study combines a mechanistic model of mosquito development for two mosquito vectors; Aedes vigilax and Aedes camptorhynchus, with climate projections from three climate models for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), to examine the possible effects of climate change and sea-level rise on a temperate tidal saltmarsh habitat in Perth, Western Australia. The projections were run under no accretion and accretion scenarios using a known mosquito habitat as a case study. This improves our understanding of the possible implications of sea-level rise, accretion and climate change for mosquito control programmes for similar habitats across temperate tidal areas found in Southwest Western Australia. The output of the model indicate that the proportion of the year mosquitoes are active increases. Population abundances of the two Aedes species increase markedly. The main drivers of changes in mosquito population abundances are increases in the frequency of inundation of the tidal wetland and size of the area inundated, increased minimum water temperature, and decreased daily temperature fluctuations as water depth increases due to sea level changes, particularly under the model with no accretion. The effects on mosquito populations are more marked for RCP 8.5 when compared to RCP 4.5 but were consistent among the three climate change models. The results indicate that Ae. vigilax is likely to be the most abundant species in 2030 and 2050, but that by 2070 Aedes camptorhynchus may become the more abundant species. This increase would put considerable pressure on existing mosquito control programmes and increase the risk of mosquito-borne disease and nuisance biting to the local community, and planning to mitigate these potential impacts should commence now.

Modeling and updating the occurrence of Aedes aegypti in its southern limit of distribution in South America

Aedes aegypti is the main vector of arboviruses in the world. This mosquito species is distributed from tropical to temperate regions. In Argentina, it has been reported in 20 out of 23 provinces and reaches its southernmost distribution in the world. Its distribution and persistence are affected by meteorological, demographic and environmental factors, such as temperature, precipitation, and population. The aim of this study was to update and model the occurrence of Aedes aegypti in its southern limit of distribution in Argentina. To this end, a total of 37 sites were inspected in La Pampa and Río Negro provinces. Generalized Linear Models were used to explain the occurrence of Aedes aegypti based on meteorological, environmental and demographic variables. Aedes aegypti was found in 11 cities of La Pampa province where it had not been previously reported, but was not found in any of the cities evaluated in Río Negro province. The averaged model explaining the occurrence of Aedes aegypti included the minimum temperature, precipitation and interactions between maximum temperature and precipitation as explanatory variables. Although precipitation was statistically significant, other factors such as minimum temperature are also important in modeling the occurrence of Aedes aegypti in its southernmost distribution limit.

Temperature dependence of mosquitoes: comparing mechanistic and machine learning approaches

Mosquito vectors of pathogens (e.g., Aedes , Anopheles , and Culex spp. which transmit dengue, Zika, chikungunya, West Nile, malaria, and others) are of increasing concern for global public health. These vectors are geographically shifting under climate and other anthropogenic changes. As small-bodied ectotherms, mosquitoes are strongly affected by temperature, which causes unimodal responses in mosquito life history traits (e.g., biting rate, adult mortality rate, mosquito development rate, and probability of egg-to-adult survival) that exhibit upper and lower thermal limits and intermediate thermal optima in laboratory studies. However, it remains unknown how mosquito thermal responses measured in laboratory experiments relate to the realized thermal responses of mosquitoes in the field. To address this gap, we leverage thousands of global mosquito occurrences and geospatial satellite data at high spatial resolution to construct machine-learning based species distribution models, from which vector thermal responses are estimated. We apply methods to restrict models to the relevant mosquito activity season and to conduct ecologically-plausible spatial background sampling centered around ecoregions for comparison to mosquito occurrence records. We found that thermal minima estimated from laboratory studies were highly correlated with those from the species distributions (r = 0.90). The thermal optima were less strongly correlated (r = 0.69). For most species, we did not detect thermal maxima from their observed distributions so were unable to compare to laboratory-based estimates. The results suggest that laboratory studies have the potential to be highly transportable to predicting lower thermal limits and thermal optima of mosquitoes in the field. At the same time, lab-based models likely capture physiological limits on mosquito persistence at high temperatures that are not apparent from field-based observational studies but may critically determine mosquito responses to climate warming.

Life expectancy of Anopheles funestus is double that of Anopheles arabiensis in southeast Tanzania based on mark-release-recapture method

Anopheles arabiensis and Anopheles funestus sensu stricto mosquitoes are major East African malaria vectors. Understanding their dispersal and population structure is critical for developing effective malaria control tools. Three mark-release-recapture (MRR) experiments were conducted for 51 nights to assess daily survival and flight range of An. arabiensis and An. funestus mosquitoes in south-eastern, Tanzania. Mosquitoes were marked with a fluorescent dye as they emerged from breeding sites via a self-marking device. Mosquitoes were collected indoors and outdoors using human landing catches (HLC) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention light traps (CDC-LT). In total, 4210 An. arabiensis and An. funestus were collected with 316 (7.5%) marked and recaptured (MR). Daily mean MR was 6.8, standard deviation (SD ± 7.6) for An. arabiensis and 8.9 (SD ± 8.3) for An. funestus. Probability of daily survival was 0.76 for An. arabiensis and 0.86 for An. funestus translating into average life expectancy of 3.6 days for An. arabiensis and 6.5 days for An. funestus. Dispersal distance was 654 m for An. arabiensis and 510 m for An. funestus. An. funestus life expectancy was substantially longer than that of An. arabiensis. The MRR method described here could be routinely utilized when evaluating the impact of new vector control tools on mosquito survival.

Dynamics and optimal control of a stochastic Zika virus model with spatial diffusion

Zika is an infectious disease with multiple transmission routes, which is related to severe congenital disabilities, especially microcephaly, and has attracted worldwide concern. This paper aims to study the dynamic behavior and optimal control of the disease. First, we establish a stochastic reaction-diffusion model (SRDM) for Zika virus, including human-mosquito transmission, human-human sexual transmission, and vertical transmission of mosquitoes, and prove the existence, uniqueness, and boundedness of the global positive solution of the model. Then, we discuss the sufficient conditions for disease extinction and the existence of a stationary distribution of positive solutions. After that, three controls, i.e. personal protection, treatment of infected persons, and insecticides for spraying mosquitoes, are incorporated into the model and an optimal control problem of Zika is formulated to minimize the number of infected people, mosquitoes, and control cost. Finally, some numerical simulations are provided to explain and supplement the theoretical results obtained.

Effects of Temperature on Blood Feeding and Activity Levels in the Tiger Mosquito, Aedes albopictus

Temperature has been shown to have profound effects on mosquito population dynamics and life history. Understanding these effects can provide insight into how mosquito populations and the diseases they transmit may vary across space and time and under the changes imposed by climate change. In this study, we evaluated how temperature affects the blood feeding and general activity patterns in the globally invasive mosquito species Aedes albopictus. We reared cohorts of Ae. albopictus from hatch through adulthood across three temperatures (26 °C, 29 °C, and 32 °C). The propensity of adult females to take a blood meal and the size of the blood meal were compared across temperatures. We also observed the overall activity levels of adult females over a 13.5 h period. At the highest temperature tested (32 °C), females were less likely to take a blood meal and were most active, as measured through frequency of movement. We postulate that our highest-temperature treatment imposes heat stress on adult female Ae. albopictus, where many abstain from blood feeding and increase movement in an attempt to escape the heat stress and find a more favorable resting location.

Distribution and Abundance of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in Benin, West Africa

Updated information on the distribution and abundance of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus is crucial to prepare African countries, such as Benin, for possible arboviral disease outbreaks. This study aims to evaluate the geographical distribution, abundance and biting behaviour of these two vectors in Benin. Three sampling techniques were used in this study. The collection of Aedes spp. adults were made through human landing catch (HLC), immatures were captured with the use of ovitraps, and a dipping technique was used for the collection of Aedes spp. in 23 communes located along the North-South and East-West transect of Benin. Adult Aedes mosquitoes were collected indoors and outdoors using HLC. Mosquito eggs, larvae and pupae were collected from containers and ovitraps. The adult mosquitoes were morphologically identified, then confirmed using a polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Overall, 12,424 adult specimens of Aedes spp. were collected, out of which 76.53% (n = 9508) and 19.32% (n = 2400) were morphologically identified as Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, respectively. Geographically, Ae. aegypti was found across the North-South transect unlike Ae. albopictus, which was only encountered in the southern part of the country, with a great preponderance in Avrankou. Furthermore, an exophagic behaviour was observed in both vectors. This updated distribution of Aedes mosquito species in Benin will help to accurately identify areas that are at risk of arboviral diseases and better plan for future vector control interventions.

Projecting the future incidence and burden of dengue in Southeast Asia

The recent global expansion of dengue has been facilitated by changes in urbanisation, mobility, and climate. In this work, we project future changes in dengue incidence and case burden to 2099 under the latest climate change scenarios. We fit a statistical model to province-level monthly dengue case counts from eight countries across Southeast Asia, one of the worst affected regions. We project that dengue incidence will peak this century before declining to lower levels with large variations between and within countries. Our findings reveal that northern Thailand and Cambodia will show the biggest decreases and equatorial areas will show the biggest increases. The impact of climate change will be counterbalanced by income growth, with population growth having the biggest influence on increasing burden. These findings can be used for formulating mitigation and adaptation interventions to reduce the immediate growing impact of dengue virus in the region.

Distribution areas and monthly dynamic distribution changes of three Aedes species in China: Aedes aegypti, Aedes albopictus and Aedes vexans

BACKGROUND

Mosquitoes play an absolute role in the spread of epidemic arbovirus diseases. Worldwide, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus are the main vectors responsible for the spread of these mosquito-borne diseases. Aedes vexans, a mosquito species native to China, also carries mosquito-borne viruses, such as dengue fever virus and Japanese encephalitis virus, but research on this mosquito has been inadequate. Mapping the potential distribution range of and monthly change in the distribution of these three Aedes species is of particular importance for mosquito surveillance, eradication and disease control.

METHODS

Monitoring data were collected for the three Aedes species in China. Long-term temperature and precipitation data (2001-2021) and land cover data were used to represent various climate and environmental conditions. An ecological niche model was developed using a maximum entropy modeling method to predict the current optimum habitat areas for the three Aedes species and to obtain important variables influencing their monthly distribution.

RESULTS

The distribution model for the three Aedes species performed well, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve value of 0.991 for Ae. aegypti, 0.928 for Ae. albopictus and 0.940 for Ae. vexans. Analysis of the distribution change and mapping of the optimum habitat range for each Aedes species for each month demonstrated that temperature, precipitation and construction land were important factors influencing the distribution of these three Aedes species.

CONCLUSIONS

In China, Aedes aegypti is mainly concentrated in a few tropical regions and along the Yunnan border; Aedes albopictus is widely distributed throughout most of the country, except for the arid and semi-arid regions of northwest China; and Aedes vexans is mainly found in the northern regions. Our results provide a basis for the timing and location of surveillance efforts for high-priority mosquitoes.

Temperature and transmission of chikungunya, dengue, and Zika viruses: A systematic review of experimental studies on Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus

Mosquito-borne viruses are leading causes of morbidity and mortality in many parts of the world. In recent years, modelling studies have shown that climate change strongly influences vector-borne disease transmission, particularly rising temperatures. As a result, the risk of epidemics has increased, posing a significant public health risk. This review aims to summarize all published laboratory experimental studies carried out over the years to determine the impact of temperature on the transmission of arboviruses by the mosquito vector. Given their high public health importance, we focus on dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses, which are transmitted by the mosquitoes Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Following PRISMA guidelines, 34 papers were included in this systematic review. Most studies found that increasing temperatures result in higher rates of infection, dissemination, and transmission of these viruses in mosquitoes, although several studies had differing findings. Overall, the studies reviewed here suggest that rising temperatures due to climate change would alter the vector competence of mosquitoes to increase epidemic risk, but that some critical research gaps remain.

Mechanical transmission of dengue virus by Aedes aegypti may influence disease transmission dynamics during outbreaks

BACKGROUND

Dengue virus outbreaks are increasing in number and severity worldwide. Viral transmission is assumed to require a minimum time period of viral replication within the mosquito midgut. It is unknown if alternative transmission periods not requiring replication are possible.

METHODS

We used a mouse model of dengue virus transmission to investigate the potential of mechanical transmission of dengue virus. We investigated minimal viral titres necessary for development of symptoms in bitten mice and used resulting parameters to inform a new model of dengue virus transmission within a susceptible population.

FINDINGS

Naïve mice bitten by mosquitoes immediately after they took partial blood meals from dengue infected mice showed symptoms of dengue virus, followed by mortality. Incorporation of mechanical transmission into mathematical models of dengue virus transmission suggest that this supplemental transmission route could result in larger outbreaks which peak sooner.

INTERPRETATION

The potential of dengue transmission routes independent of midgut viral replication has implications for vector control strategies that target mosquito lifespan and suggest the possibility of similar mechanical transmission routes in other disease-carrying mosquitoes.

FUNDING

This study was funded by grants from the National Health Research Institutes, Taiwan (04D2-MMMOST02), the Human Frontier Science Program (RGP0033/2021), the National Institutes of Health (1R01AI143698-01A1, R01AI151004 and DP2AI152071) and the Ministry of Science and Technology, Taiwan (MOST104-2321-B-400-016).

Mathematical modeling of Dengue virus serotypes propagation in Mexico

The Dengue virus (DENV) constitutes a major vector borne virus disease worldwide. Prediction of the DENV spread dynamics, prevalence and infection rates are crucial elements to guide the public health services effort towards meaningful actions. The existence of four DENV serotypes further complicates the virus proliferation forecast. The different serotypes have varying clinical impacts, and the symptomatology of the infection is dependent on the infection history of the patient. Therefore, changes in the prevalent DENV serotype found in one location have a profound impact on the regional public health. The prediction of the spread and intensity of infection of the individual DENV serotypes in specific locations would allow the authorities to plan local pesticide spray to control the vector as well as the purchase of specific antibody therapy. Here we used a mathematical model to predict serotype-specific DENV prevalence and overall case burden in Mexico.

The spatio-temporal distribution of acute encephalitis syndrome and its association with climate and landcover in Vietnam

BACKGROUND

Acute encephalitis syndrome (AES) differs in its spatio-temporal distribution in Vietnam with the highest incidence seen during the summer months in the northern provinces. AES has multiple aetiologies, and the cause remains unknown in many cases. While vector-borne disease such as Japanese encephalitis and dengue virus and non-vector-borne diseases such as influenza and enterovirus show evidence of seasonality, associations with climate variables and the spatio-temporal distribution in Vietnam differs between these. The aim of this study was therefore to understand the spatio-temporal distribution of, and risk factors for AES in Vietnam to help hypothesise the aetiology.

METHODS

The number of monthly cases per province for AES, meningitis and diseases including dengue fever; influenza-like-illness (ILI); hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD); and Streptococcus suis were obtained from the General Department for Preventive Medicine (GDPM) from 1998-2016. Covariates including climate, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), elevation, the number of pigs, socio-demographics, JEV vaccination coverage and the number of hospitals were also collected. Spatio-temporal multivariable mixed-effects negative binomial Bayesian models with an outcome of the number of cases of AES, a combination of the covariates and harmonic terms to determine the magnitude of seasonality were developed.

RESULTS

The national monthly incidence of AES declined by 63.3% over the study period. However, incidence increased in some provinces, particularly in the Northwest region. In northern Vietnam, the incidence peaked in the summer months in contrast to the southern provinces where incidence remained relatively constant throughout the year. The incidence of meningitis, ILI and S. suis infection; temperature, relative humidity with no lag, NDVI at a lag of one month, and the number of pigs per 100,000 population were positively associated with the number of cases of AES in all models in which these covariates were included.

CONCLUSIONS

The positive correlation of AES with temperature and humidity suggest that a number of cases may be due to vector-borne diseases, suggesting a need to focus on vaccination campaigns. However, further surveillance and research are recommended to investigate other possible aetiologies such as S. suis or Orientia tsutsugamushi.

Genomic signatures of local adaptation in recent invasive Aedes aegypti populations in California

BACKGROUND

Rapid adaptation to new environments can facilitate species invasions and range expansions. Understanding the mechanisms of adaptation used by invasive disease vectors in new regions has key implications for mitigating the prevalence and spread of vector-borne disease, although they remain relatively unexplored.

RESULTS

Here, we integrate whole-genome sequencing data from 96 Aedes aegypti mosquitoes collected from various sites in southern and central California with 25 annual topo-climate variables to investigate genome-wide signals of local adaptation among populations. Patterns of population structure, as inferred using principal components and admixture analysis, were consistent with three genetic clusters. Using various landscape genomics approaches, which all remove the confounding effects of shared ancestry on correlations between genetic and environmental variation, we identified 112 genes showing strong signals of local environmental adaptation associated with one or more topo-climate factors. Some of them have known effects in climate adaptation, such as heat-shock proteins, which shows selective sweep and recent positive selection acting on these genomic regions.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results provide a genome wide perspective on the distribution of adaptive loci and lay the foundation for future work to understand how environmental adaptation in Ae. aegypti impacts the arboviral disease landscape and how such adaptation could help or hinder efforts at population control.

Spatiotemporal and meteorological relationships in dengue transmission in the Dominican Republic, 2015-2019

Dengue has broadened its global distribution substantially in the past two decades, and many endemic areas are experiencing increases in incidence. The Dominican Republic recently experienced its two largest outbreaks to date with 16,836 reported cases in 2015 and 20,123 reported cases in 2019. With continued increases in dengue transmission, developing tools to better prepare healthcare systems and mosquito control agencies is of critical importance. Before such tools can be developed, however, we must first better understand potential drivers of dengue transmission. To that end, we focus in this paper on determining relationships between climate variables and dengue transmission with an emphasis on eight provinces and the capital city of the Dominican Republic in the period 2015-2019. We present summary statistics for dengue cases, temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity in this period, and we conduct an analysis of correlated lags between climate variables and dengue cases as well as correlated lags among dengue cases in each of the nine locations. We find that the southwestern province of Barahona had the largest dengue incidence in both 2015 and 2019. Among all climate variables considered, lags between relative humidity variables and dengue cases were the most frequently correlated. We found that most locations had significant correlations with cases in other locations at lags of zero weeks. These results can be used to improve predictive models of dengue transmission in the country.

Dirofilaria repens in a dog imported to Denmark: A potential for emerging zoonotic disease

Dirofilarosis is spreading among dogs and humans in Europe with infections being established in many countries. Here, we describe the first molecular biologically confirmed case of D. repens infection in an imported dog in Denmark and highlight the potential zoonotic aspects from this emerging zoonotic parasite in central and northern Europe as at least one to two generations of Dirofilaria spp. can occur per year in Denmark.

Modelling the impact of climate change on dengue outbreaks and future spatiotemporal shift in Pakistan

Climate change has a significant impact on the intensity and spread of dengue outbreaks. The objective of this study is to assess the number of dengue transmission suitable days (DTSD) in Pakistan for the baseline (1976-2005) and future (2006-2035, 2041-2070, and 2071-2099) periods under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios. Moreover, potential spatiotemporal shift and future hotspots of DTSD due to climate change were also identified. The analysis is based on fourteen CMIP5 models that have been downscaled and bias-corrected with quantile delta mapping technique, which addresses data stationarity constraints while preserving future climate signal. The results show a higher DTSD during the monsoon season in the baseline in the study area except for Sindh (SN) and South Punjab (SP). In future periods, there is a temporal shift (extension) towards pre- and post-monsoon. During the baseline period, the top ten hotspot cities with a higher frequency of DTSD are Karachi, Hyderabad, Sialkot, Jhelum, Lahore, Islamabad, Balakot, Peshawar, Kohat, and Faisalabad. However, as a result of climate change, there is an elevation-dependent shift in DTSD to high-altitude cities, e.g. in the 2020s, Kotli, Muzaffarabad, and Drosh; in the 2050s, Garhi Dopatta, Quetta, and Zhob; and in the 2080s, Chitral and Bunji. Karachi, Islamabad, and Balakot will remain highly vulnerable to dengue outbreaks for all the future periods of the twenty-first century. Our findings also indicate that DTSD would spread across Pakistan, particularly in areas where we have never seen dengue infections previously. The good news is that the DTSD in current hotspot cities is projected to decrease in the future due to climate change. There is also a temporal shift in the region during the post- and pre-monsoon season, which provides suitable breeding conditions for dengue mosquitos due to freshwater; therefore, local authorities need to take adaption and mitigation actions.

Impact of regional climate change on the mosquito vector Aedes albopictus in a tropical island environment: La Réunion

The recent expansion of Aedes albopictus across continents in both tropical and temperate regions and the exponential growth of dengue cases over the past 50 years represent a significant risk to human health. Although climate change is not the only factor responsible for the increase and spread of dengue cases worldwide, it might increase the risk of disease transmission at global and regional scale. Here we show that regional and local variations in climate can induce differential impacts on the abundance of Ae. albopictus. We use the instructive example of Réunion Island with its varied climatic and environmental conditions and benefiting from the availability of meteorological, climatic, entomological and epidemiological data. Temperature and precipitation data based on regional climate model simulations (3 km × 3 km) are used as inputs to a mosquito population model for three different climate emission scenarios. Our objective is to study the impact of climate change on the life cycle dynamics of Ae. albopictus in the 2070-2100 time horizon. Our results show the joint influence of temperature and precipitation on Ae. albopictus abundance as a function of elevation and geographical subregion. At low-elevations areas, decreasing precipitation is expected to have a negative impact on environmental carrying capacity and, consequently, on Ae. albopictus abundance. At mid- and high-elevations, decreasing precipitation is expected to be counterbalanced by a significant warming, leading to faster development rates at all life stages, and consequently increasing the abundance of this important dengue vector in 2070-2100.

Global transmission suitability maps for dengue virus transmitted by Aedes aegypti from 1981 to 2019

Mosquito-borne viruses increasingly threaten human populations due to accelerating changes in climate, human and mosquito migration, and land use practices. Over the last three decades, the global distribution of dengue has rapidly expanded, causing detrimental health and economic problems in many areas of the world. To develop effective disease control measures and plan for future epidemics, there is an urgent need to map the current and future transmission potential of dengue across both endemic and emerging areas. Expanding and applying Index P, a previously developed mosquito-borne viral suitability measure, we map the global climate-driven transmission potential of dengue virus transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes from 1981 to 2019. This database of dengue transmission suitability maps and an R package for Index P estimations are offered to the public health community as resources towards the identification of past, current and future transmission hotspots. These resources and the studies they facilitate can contribute to the planning of disease control and prevention strategies, especially in areas where surveillance is unreliable or non-existent.

Effects of high temperatures and heatwaves on dengue fever: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Studies have shown that dengue virus transmission increases in association with ambient temperature. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the effect of both high temperatures and heatwave events on dengue transmission in different climate zones globally.

METHODS

A systematic literature search was conducted in PubMed, Scopus, Embase, and Web of Science from January 1990 to September 20, 2022. We included peer reviewed original observational studies using ecological time series, case crossover, or case series study designs reporting the association of high temperatures and heatwave with dengue and comparing risks over different exposures or time periods. Studies classified as case reports, clinical trials, non-human studies, conference abstracts, editorials, reviews, books, posters, commentaries; and studies that examined only seasonal effects were excluded. Effect estimates were extracted from published literature. A random effects meta-analysis was performed to pool the relative risks (RRs) of dengue infection per 1 °C increase in temperature, and further subgroup analyses were also conducted. The quality and strength of evidence were evaluated following the Navigation Guide systematic review methodology framework. The review protocol has been registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO).

FINDINGS

The study selection process yielded 6367 studies. A total of 106 studies covering more than four million dengue cases fulfilled the inclusion criteria; of these, 54 studies were eligible for meta-analysis. The overall pooled estimate showed a 13% increase in risk of dengue infection (RR = 1.13; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.11-1.16, I² = 98.0%) for each 1 °C increase in high temperatures. Subgroup analyses by climate zones suggested greater effects of temperature in tropical monsoon climate zone (RR = 1.29, 95% CI: 1.11-1.51) and humid subtropical climate zone (RR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.15-1.25). Heatwave events showed association with an increased risk of dengue infection (RR = 1.08; 95% CI: 0.95-1.23, I² = 88.9%), despite a wide confidence interval. The overall strength of evidence was found to be "sufficient" for high temperatures but "limited" for heatwaves. Our results showed that high temperatures increased the risk of dengue infection, albeit with varying risks across climate zones and different levels of national income.

INTERPRETATION

High temperatures increased the relative risk of dengue infection. Future studies on the association between temperature and dengue infection should consider local and regional climate, socio-demographic and environmental characteristics to explore vulnerability at local and regional levels for tailored prevention.

FUNDING

Australian Research Council Discovery Program.

A Multi-Species Simulation of Mosquito Disease Vector Development in Temperate Australian Tidal Wetlands Using Publicly Available Data

Worldwide, mosquito monitoring and control programs consume large amounts of resources in the effort to minimise mosquito-borne disease incidence. On-site larval monitoring is highly effective but time consuming. A number of mechanistic models of mosquito development have been developed to reduce the reliance on larval monitoring, but none for Ross River virus, the most commonly occurring mosquito-borne disease in Australia. This research modifies existing mechanistic models for malaria vectors and applies it to a wetland field site in Southwest, Western Australia. Environmental monitoring data were applied to an enzyme kinetic model of larval mosquito development to simulate timing of adult emergence and relative population abundance of three mosquito vectors of the Ross River virus for the period of 2018–2020. The model results were compared with field measured adult mosquitoes trapped using carbon dioxide light traps. The model showed different patterns of emergence for the three mosquito species, capturing inter-seasonal and inter-year variation, and correlated well with field adult trapping data. The model provides a useful tool to investigate the effects of different weather and environmental variables on larval and adult mosquito development and can be used to investigate the possible effects of changes to short-term and long-term sea level and climate changes.

Evolution and immunopathology of chikungunya virus informs therapeutic development

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV), a mosquito-borne alphavirus, is an emerging global threat identified in more than 60 countries across continents. The risk of CHIKV transmission is rising due to increased global interactions, year-round presence of mosquito vectors, and the ability of CHIKV to produce high host viral loads and undergo mutation. Although CHIKV disease is rarely fatal, it can progress to a chronic stage, during which patients experience severe debilitating arthritis that can last from several weeks to months or years. At present, there are no licensed vaccines or antiviral drugs for CHIKV disease, and treatment is primarily symptomatic. This Review provides an overview of CHIKV pathogenesis and explores the available therapeutic options and the most recent advances in novel therapeutic strategies against CHIKV infections.

Winter survival of adults of two geographically distant populations of Aedes albopictus in a microclimatic environment of Athens, Greece

Overwintering capacity is a major step towards establishment of invasive mosquitoes from the tropics in temperate zone areas and one of the main elements determining next seasons' population size that regulates disease transmission of competent invasive vector species. The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera: Culiciidae) is an aggressive invasive species that has greatly expanded its geographical boundaries over the last few decades. The species' ability to induce photoperiodic-based egg diapause allows its overwintering in temperate regions, which favors its establishment in higher latitudes. In warmer temperate areas winter survival can be accomplished in the adult stage as well especially in human-made shelters. Aedes albopictus is already showing signs of adaptation to colder climates which may result in disease transmission in new areas. Although the Asian tiger mosquito has invaded Greece since 2003-4, little is known regarding its overwintering capacity in the country, especially as far as adults are regarded. We studied the survival of Ae. albopictus adults during winter in a protected shelter in Athens, the capital city of Greece. The study involved two geographically isolated populations originating from Chania (Crete, most southern part of Greece), and Palaio Faliro (Athens, Central Greece). We exposed different cohorts of F3 adults of the above two populations that emerged from field collected eggs to "winter condition" from November 2018 to beginning of January 2019. in a protected microclimatic environment. Adult mortality was recorded systematically until the death of the last individual in the cohort. Results demonstrated evidence of winter survival of adults for both populations. Longevity of both females and males of the Palaio Faliro population was longer than that of the Chania population for almost all installation dates. Survival curves, regardless of the date of installation, were steeper for females of the Chania population compared to those from Palaio Faliro. In conclusion, overwinter survival of both populations in the adult stage highlights the need for future studies, considering local and microclimatic condition that vary significantly between regions. Winter climatic conditions play vital role in adult survival of this highly important public health species concerning distribution limits and knowledge on winter survival of Ae. albopictus transmitted viruses.

Effects of temperature, relative humidity, and illumination on the entomological parameters of Aedes albopictus: an experimental study

Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) is a mosquito from Asia that can transmit a variety of diseases. This paper aimed to explore the effects of temperature, relative humidity, and illumination on the entomological parameters related to the population growth of Aedes albopictus, and provide specific parameters for developing dynamic models of mosquito-borne infectious disease. We used artificial simulation lab experiments, and set 27 different meteorological conditions to observe and record mosquito's hatching time, emergence time, longevity of adult females, and oviposition amount. We then applied generalized additive model (GAM) and polynomial regression to formulate the effects of temperature, relative humidity, and illumination on the biological characteristics of Aedes albopictus. Our results showed that hatchability closely related to temperature and illumination. The immature stage and the survival time of adult female mosquitoes were associated with temperature and relative humidity. The oviposition rate related to temperature, relative humidity, and illumination. Under the control of relative humidity and illumination, ecological characteristics of mosquitoes such as hatching rate, transition rate, longevity, and oviposition rate had an inverted J shape with temperature, and the thresholds were 31.2 °C, 32.1 °C, 17.7 °C, and 25.7 °C, respectively. The parameter expressions of Aedes albopictus using meteorological factors as predictors under different stages were established. Meteorological factors especially temperature significantly influence the development of Aedes albopictus under different physiological stages. The established formulas of ecological parameters can provide important information for modeling mosquito-borne infectious diseases.

Understanding key vectors and vector-borne diseases associated with freshwater ecosystem across Africa: Implications for public health

The emerging and re-emerging vector-borne diseases transmitted by key freshwater organisms have remained a global concern. As one of the leading biodiversity hotspots, the African ecoregion is suggested to harbour the highest number of freshwater organisms globally. Among the commonly found organisms in the African ecoregion are mosquitoes and snails, with a majority of their life cycle in freshwater, and these freshwater organisms can transmit diseases or serve as carriers of devastating diseases of public health concerns. However, synthetic studies to link the evident abundant presence and wide distribution of these vectors across the freshwater ecosystems in Africa with the increasing emerging and re-emerging vector-borne diseases in Africa are still limited. Here, we reviewed documented evidence on vector-borne diseases and their transmission pathways in Africa to reduce the knowledge gap on the factors influencing the increasing emerging and re-emerging vector-borne diseases across Africa. We found the population distributions or abundance of these freshwater organisms to be increasing, which is directly associated with the increasing emerging and re-emerging vector-borne diseases across Africa. Furthermore, we found that although the current changing environmental conditions in Africa affect the habitats of these freshwater organisms, current changing environmental conditions may not be suppressing the population distributions or abundance of these freshwater organisms. Instead, we found that these freshwater organisms are extending their geographic ranges across Africa, which may have significant public health implications in Africa. Thus, our study demonstrates the need for future studies to integrate the environmental conditions of vectors' habitats to understand if these environmental conditions directly or indirectly influence the vectorial capacities and transmission abilities of vectors of diseases. We propose that such studies will be necessary to guide policymakers in making informed policies to help control vector-borne diseases.

The role of temperature in shaping Culex acharistus mosquitoes life history traits in its southern limit of distribution (Patagonia-Argentina)

There is substantial evidence showing that temperature have a great impact on insects behavior, phenology and life histories. Because of mosquito global importance as disease vectors, in temperate regions where climatic conditions could be only borderline suitable for mosquito development, there is a growing interest in understanding the effect of temperature shifts on vital statistics to more accurately define how such changes could impact distribution and abundance patterns, as well as disease transmission cycles. We determined the role of ambient temperature under fluctuating conditions in shaping Culex acharistus (Diptera: Culicidae) life history traits, and estimated its development threshold and physiological time, in its southern limit of distribution in the Argentine Patagonia region. Four horizontal life tables were conducted under natural fluctuating temperature range in Esquel city (42°S - 71°W; 563 m a.s.l.), during spring-summer (17°C), summer (15.4°C), summer-autumn (12.7°C) and autumn-winter (5.6°C) seasons. Larvae, pupae and adult traits were recorded. The mean duration of the experiments varied between 28 to ≅100 days for spring-summer and autumn-winter seasons. Only during the cold season experiment pupae experienced the most severe temperatures and freeze-thaw cycles, and failed to reach adult stage. We found that larva and pupa development time, adult emergence time and longevity significantly increased with decreasing temperatures, while larval survival was greatest at an intermediate temperature and decreased toward low and high values. Also, protandry was observed and males emerge 2 days before females across seasons. Temperature development threshold and physiological time estimated for larva + pupa were 5.98°C and 211.24°C-days. Our study contributes to a growing body of knowledge by examining the effect of seasonal changes in temperature on mosquito life history traits. Results obtained here can be applied as useful parameters in the development of population dynamic models, improving current mosquito control strategies in cold-temperate regions.

In Vitro and In Vivo Coinfection and Superinfection Dynamics of Mayaro and Zika Viruses in Mosquito and Vertebrate Backgrounds

Globalization and climate change have contributed to the simultaneous increase and spread of arboviral diseases. Cocirculation of several arboviruses in the same geographic region provides an impetus to study the impacts of multiple concurrent infections within an individual vector mosquito. Here, we describe coinfection and superinfection with the Mayaro virus (Togaviridae, Alphavirus) and Zika virus (Flaviviridae, Flavivirus) in vertebrate and mosquito cells, as well as Aedes aegypti adult mosquitoes, to understand the interaction dynamics of these pathogens and effects on viral infection, dissemination, and transmission. Aedes aegypti mosquitoes were able to be infected with and transmit both pathogens simultaneously. However, whereas Mayaro virus was largely unaffected by coinfection, it had a negative impact on infection and dissemination rates for Zika virus compared to single infection scenarios. Superinfection of Mayaro virus atop a previous Zika virus infection resulted in increased Mayaro virus infection rates. At the cellular level, we found that mosquito and vertebrate cells were also capable of being simultaneously infected with both pathogens. Similar to our findings in vivo, Mayaro virus negatively affected Zika virus replication in vertebrate cells, displaying complete blocking under certain conditions. Viral interference did not occur in mosquito cells. IMPORTANCE Epidemiological and clinical studies indicate that multiple arboviruses are cocirculating in human populations, leading to some individuals carrying more than one arbovirus at the same time. In turn, mosquitoes can become infected with multiple pathogens simultaneously (coinfection) or sequentially (superinfection). Coinfection and superinfection can have synergistic, neutral, or antagonistic effects on viral infection dynamics and ultimately have impacts on human health. Here we investigate the interaction between Zika virus and Mayaro virus, two emerging mosquito-borne pathogens currently circulating together in Latin America and the Caribbean. We find a major mosquito vector of these viruses-Aedes aegypti-can carry and transmit both arboviruses at the same time. Our findings emphasize the importance of considering co- and superinfection dynamics during vector-pathogen interaction studies, surveillance programs, and risk assessment efforts in epidemic areas.

Effects of constant temperature and daily fluctuating temperature on the transovarial transmission and life cycle of Aedes albopictus infected with Zika virus

Introduction

Numerous studies on the mosquito life cycle and transmission efficacy were performed under constant temperatures. Mosquito in wild, however, is not exposed to constant temperature but is faced with temperature variation on a daily basis.

Methods

In the present study, the mosquito life cycle and Zika virus transmission efficiency were conducted at daily fluctuating temperatures and constant temperatures. Aedes albopictus was infected with the Zika virus orally. The oviposition and survival of the infected mosquitoes and hatching rate, the growth cycle of larvae at each stage, and the infection rate (IR) of the progeny mosquitoes were performed at two constant temperatures (23°C and 31°C) and a daily temperature range (DTR, 23-31°C).

Results

It showed that the biological parameters of mosquitoes under DTR conditions were significantly different from that under constant temperatures. Mosquitoes in DTR survived longer, laid more eggs (mean number: 36.5 vs. 24.2), and had a higher hatching rate (72.3% vs. 46.5%) but a lower pupation rate (37.9% vs. 81.1%) and emergence rate (72.7% vs. 91.7%) than that in the high-temperature group (constant 31°C). When compared to the low-temperature group (constant 23°C), larvae mosquitoes in DTR developed faster (median days: 9 vs. 23.5) and adult mosquitoes carried higher Zika viral RNA load (median log₁₀ RNA copies/μl: 5.28 vs. 3.86). However, the temperature or temperature pattern has no effect on transovarial transmission.

Discussion

Those results indicated that there are significant differences between mosquito development and reproductive cycles under fluctuating and constant temperature conditions, and fluctuating temperature is more favorable for mosquitos' survival and reproduction. The data would support mapping and predicting the distribution of Aedes mosquitoes in the future and establishing an early warning system for Zika virus epidemics.

Dynamics of an impulsive reaction-diffusion mosquitoes model with multiple control measures

It is well-known that mosquito control is one of the effective methods to reduce and prevent the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases. In this paper, we formulate a reaction-diffusion impulsive hybrid model incorporating Wolbachia, impulsively spraying of insecticides, spatial heterogeneity, and seasonality to investigate the control of mosquito population. The sufficient conditions for mosquito extinction or successful Wolbachia persistence in a population of natural mosquitoes are derived. More importantly, we give the estimations of the spraying times of insecticides during a period for achieving the mosquito extinction and population replacement in a special case. A global attractivity of the positive periodic solution is analyzed under appropriate conditions. Numerical simulations disclose that spatial heterogeneity and seasonality have significant impacts on the design of mosquitoes control strategies. It is suggested to combine biological control and chemical pulse control under certain situations to reduce the natural mosquitoes. Further, our results reveal that the establishment of a higher level of population replacement depends on the strain type of the Wolbachia and the high initial occupancy of the Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes.

Modelling the ecological dynamics of mosquito populations with multiple co-circulating Wolbachia strains

Wolbachia intracellular bacteria successfully reduce the transmissibility of arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) when introduced into virus-carrying vectors such as mosquitoes. Despite the progress made by introducing Wolbachia bacteria into the Aedes aegypti wild-type population to control arboviral infections, reports suggest that heat-induced loss-of-Wolbachia-infection as a result of climate change may reverse these gains. Novel, supplemental Wolbachia strains that are more resilient to increased temperatures may circumvent these concerns, and could potentially act synergistically with existing variants. In this article, we model the ecological dynamics among three distinct mosquito (sub)populations: a wild-type population free of any Wolbachia infection; an invading population infected with a particular Wolbachia strain; and a second invading population infected with a distinct Wolbachia strain from that of the first invader. We explore how the range of possible characteristics of each Wolbachia strain impacts mosquito prevalence. Further, we analyse the differential system governing the mosquito populations and the Wolbachia infection dynamics by computing the full set of basic and invasive reproduction numbers and use these to establish stability of identified equilibria. Our results show that releasing mosquitoes with two different strains of Wolbachia did not increase their prevalence, compared with a single-strain Wolbachia-infected mosquito introduction and only delayed Wolbachia dominance.

Impact of extreme weather on dengue fever infection in four Asian countries: A modelling analysis

The rapid spread of dengue fever (DF) infection has posed severe threats to global health. Environmental factors, such as weather conditions, are believed to regulate DF spread. While previous research reported inconsistent change of DF risk with varying weather conditions, few of them evaluated the impact of extreme weather conditions on DF infection risk. This study aims to examine the short-term associations between extreme temperatures, extreme rainfall, and DF infection risk in South and Southeast Asia. A total of 35 locations in Singapore, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, and Thailand were included, and weekly DF data, as well as the daily meteorological data from 2012 to 2020 were collected. A two-stage meta-analysis was used to estimate the overall effect of extreme weather conditions on the DF infection risk. Location-specific associations were obtained by the distributed lag nonlinear models. The DF infection risk appeared to increase within 1-3 weeks after extremely high temperature (e.g. lag week 2: RR = 1.074, 95 % CI: 1.022-1.129, p = 0.005). Compared with no rainfall, extreme rainfall was associated with a declined DF risk (RR = 0.748, 95 % CI: 0.620-0.903, p = 0.003), and most of the impact was across 0-3 weeks lag. In addition, the DF risk was found to be associated with more intensive extreme weathers (e.g. seven extreme rainfall days per week: RR = 0.338, 95 % CI: 0.120-0.947, p = 0.039). This study provides more evidence in support of the impact of extreme weather conditions on DF infection and suggests better preparation of DF control measures according to climate change.

Entomological Surveillance of the Invasive Aedes Species at Higher-Priority Entry Points in Northern Iran: Exploratory Report on a Field Study

Background

Arboviral diseases such as dengue, Zika, and chikungunya are transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Ae albopictus and are emerging global public health concerns.

Objective

This study aimed to provide up-to-date data on the occurrence of the invasive Aedes species in a given area as this is essential for planning and implementing timely control strategies.

Methods

Entomological surveillance was planned and carried out monthly from May 2018 to December 2019 at higher-priority entry points in Guilan Province, Northern Iran, using ovitraps, larval collection, and human-baited traps. Species richness (R), Simpson (D), evenness (E), and Shannon-Wiener indexes (H̕) were measured to better understand the diversity of the Aedes species. The Spearman correlation coefficient and regression models were used for data analysis.

Results

We collected a total of 3964 mosquito samples including 17.20% (682/3964) belonging to the Aedes species, from 3 genera and 13 species, and morphologically identified them from May 2018 to December 2019. Ae vexans and Ae geniculatus, which showed a peak in activity levels and population in October (226/564, 40.07% and 26/103, 25.2%), were the eudominant species (D=75.7%; D=21.2%) with constant (C=100) and frequent (C=66.7%) distributions, respectively. The population of Ae vexans had a significant positive correlation with precipitation (r=0.521; P=.009) and relative humidity (r=0.510; P=.01), whereas it was inversely associated with temperature (r=−0.432; P=.04). The Shannon-Wiener Index was up to 0.84 and 1.04 in the city of Rasht and in July, respectively. The rarefaction curve showed sufficiency in sampling efforts by reaching the asymptotic line at all spatial and temporal scales, except in Rasht and in October.

Conclusions

Although no specimens of the Ae aegypti and Ae albopictus species were collected, this surveillance provides a better understanding of the native Aedes species in the northern regions of Iran. These data will assist the health system in future arbovirus research, and in the implementation of effective vector control and prevention strategies, should Ae aegypti and Ae albopictus be found in the province.

The association between dengue case and climate: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Although previous research frequently indicates that climate factors impact dengue transmission, the results are inconsistent. Therefore, this systematic review and meta-analysis highlights and address the complex global health problems towards the human-environment interface and the inter-relationship between these variables. For this purpose, four online electronic databases were searched to conduct a systematic assessment of published studies reporting the association between dengue cases and climate between 2010 and 2022. The meta-analysis was conducted using random effects to assess correlation, publication bias and heterogeneity. The final assessment included eight studies for both systematic review and meta-analysis. A total of four meta-analyses were conducted to evaluate the correlation of dengue cases with climate variables, namely precipitation, temperature, minimum temperature and relative humidity. The highest correlation is observed for precipitation between 83 mm and 15 mm (r = 0.38, 95% CI = 0.31, 0.45), relative humidity between 60.5% and 88.7% (r = 0.30, 95% CI = 0.23, 0.37), minimum temperature between 6.5 °C and 21.4 °C (r = 0.28, 95% CI = 0.05, 0.48) and mean temperature between 21.0 °C and 29.8 °C (r = 0.07, 95% CI = -0.1, 0.24). Thus, the influence of climate variables on the magnitude of dengue cases in terms of their distribution, frequency, and prevailing variables was established and conceptualised. The results of this meta-analysis enable multidisciplinary collaboration to improve dengue surveillance, epidemiology, and prevention programmes.

Exploring Conditions for Handling Packing and Shipping Aedes aegypti Males to Support an SIT Field Project in Brazil

The sterile insect technique (SIT) application, as an alternative tool for conventional mosquito control methods, has recently gained prominence. Nevertheless, some SIT components require further development, such as protocols under large-scale conditions, focusing on packing and shipping mosquitoes, and considering transporting time. Immobilization of Aedes aegypti males was tested at temperatures 4, 7, 10, and 14 °C, and each temperature was assessed for 60, 90, and 120 min. The recovery after 24 h was also studied. Chilled and control-reared males had comparable survival rates for all conditions, although 4 °C for 120 min impacted male survival. The male escape rate was affected after 60 min of exposure at 4 °C; this difference was not significant, with 24 h of recovery. First, we defined the successful immobilization at 4 °C for 60 min, thus enabling the evaluation of two transportation intervals: 6 and 24 h, with the assessment of different compaction densities of 100 and 150 mosquitoes/cm³ at 10 °C to optimize the shipment. Compaction during simulated mosquito shipments reduced survival rates significantly after 6 and 24 h. In the mating propensity and insemination experiments, the sterile males managed to inseminate 40 to 66% for all treatments in laboratory conditions. The male insemination propensity was affected only by the highest compaction condition concerning the control. The analysis of the densities (100 and 150 males/cm³) showed that a higher density combined with an extended shipment period (24 h) negatively impacted the percentage of inseminated females. The results are very helpful in developing and improving the SIT packing and shipment protocols. Further studies are required to evaluate all combined parameters' synergetic effects that can combine irradiation to assess sexual competitiveness when sterile males are released into the field.

Effect of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and local weather on Aedes dvector activity from 2010 to 2018 in Kalutara district, Sri Lanka: a two-stage hierarchical analysis

BACKGROUND

Dengue, transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, is a major public health problem in Sri Lanka. Weather affects the abundance, feeding patterns, and longevity of Aedes vectors and hence the risk of dengue transmission. We aimed to quantify the effect of weather variability on dengue vector indices in ten Medical Officer of Health (MOH) divisions in Kalutara, Sri Lanka.

METHODS

Monthly weather variables (rainfall, temperature, and Oceanic Niño Index [ONI]) and Aedes larval indices in each division in Kalutara were obtained from 2010 to 2018. Using a distributed lag non-linear model and a two-stage hierarchical analysis, we estimated and compared division-level and overall relationships between weather and premise index, Breteau index, and container index.

FINDINGS

From Jan 1, 2010, to Dec 31, 2018, three El Niño events (2010, 2015-16, and 2018) occurred. Increasing monthly cumulative rainfall higher than 200 mm at a lag of 0 months, mean temperatures higher than 31·5°C at a lag of 1-2 months, and El Niño conditions (ie, ONI >0·5) at a lag of 6 months were associated with an increased relative risk of premise index and Breteau index. Container index was found to be less sensitive to temperature and ONI, and rainfall. The associations of rainfall and temperature were rather homogeneous across divisions.

INTERPRETATION

Both temperature and ONI have the potential to serve as predictors of vector activity at a lead time of 1-6 months, while the amount of rainfall could indicate the magnitude of vector prevalence in the same month. This information, along with knowledge of the distribution of breeding sites, is useful for spatial risk prediction and implementation of effective Aedes control interventions.

FUNDING

None.

A recent chikungunya outbreak associated with the occurrence of Aedes vectors (Diptera: Culicidae) in Kassala state, eastern Sudan in 2018

Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) are primary vectors of human arboviral diseases such as dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Zika viruses. Aedes aegypti is well distributed in Sudan, except in Northern and Khartoum states, while Ae. albopictus has not been previously reported. Recently, Eastern Sudan witnessed an unprecedented large outbreak of chikungunya fever between 31 May 2018 and 30 March 2019. The outbreak was composed of four waves; one of them was in Kassala state. Aedes survey in localities of Kassala state (rather than Kassala city) is carried out to assess the possible expansion of the disease in the state. The results showed the presence of immature stages of Aedes spp. in four localities from ten localities. From the four localities that recorded Aedes spp., two localities (Rural Kassala and West Kassala) were reported with chikungunya cases. From this investigation, Ae. albopictus was reported for the first time in Sudan. Also, this investigation showed the importance of conducting entomological surveys with epidemiological surveys during outbreaks of arboviral diseases.

Forecasting the incidence of dengue in Bangladesh—Application of time series model

Background

Dengue is an alarming public health concern in terms of its preventive and curative measures among people in Bangladesh; moreover, its sudden outbreak created a lot of suffering among people in 2018. Considering the greater burden of disease in larger epidemic years and the difficulty in understanding current and future needs, it is highly needed to address early warning systems to control epidemics from the earliest.

Objective

The study objective was to select the most appropriate model for dengue incidence and using the selected model, the authors forecast the future dengue outbreak in Bangladesh.

Methods and Materials

This study considered a secondary data set of monthly dengue occurrences over the period of January 2008 to January 2020. Initially, the authors found the suitable model from Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Error, Trend, Seasonal (ETS) and Trigonometric seasonality, Box‐Cox transformation, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal (TBATS) models with the help of selected model selection criteria and finally employing the selected model make forecasting of dengue incidences in Bangladesh.

Results

Among ARIMA, ETS, and TBATS models, the ARIMA model performs better than others. The Box‐Jenkin's procedure is applicable here and it is found that the best‐selected model to forecast the dengue outbreak in the context of Bangladesh is ARIMA (2,1,2).

Conclusion

Before establishing a comprehensive plan for future combating strategies, it is vital to understand the future scenario of dengue occurrence. With this in mind, the authors aimed to select an appropriate model that might predict dengue fever outbreaks in Bangladesh. The findings revealed that dengue fever is expected to become more frequent in the future. The authors believe that the study findings will be helpful to take early initiatives to combat future dengue outbreaks.

Impact of Irradiation on Vector Competence of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) for Dengue and Chikungunya Viruses

Effective control strategies against arthropod disease vectors are amongst the most powerful tools to prevent the spread of vector-borne diseases. The sterile insect technique (SIT) is an effective and sustainable autocidal control method that has recently shown effective population suppression against different Aedes vector species worldwide. The SIT approach for mosquito vectors requires the release of radio-sterilized male mosquitoes only, but currently available sex separation techniques cannot ensure the complete elimination of females resulting in short-term risk of increased biting rate and arboviral disease transmission. In this study, we compared for the first time the transmission of dengue and chikungunya viruses in Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus females exposed as pupae to an irradiation dose of 40 Gy. Females of both species were fed on blood spiked with either dengue or chikungunya viruses, and body parts were tested for virus presence by real-time RT-PCR at different time points. No differences were observed in the dissemination efficiency of the dengue virus in irradiated and unirradiated Ae. albopictus and Ae. aegypti mosquitoes. The dissemination of the chikungunya virus was higher in Ae. albopictus than in Ae. Aegypti, and irradiation increased the virus load in both species. However, we did not observe differences in the transmission efficiency for chikungunya (100%) and dengue (8–27%) between mosquito species, and irradiation did not impact transmissibility. Further implications of these results on the epidemiology of vector-borne diseases in the field are discussed.