Climate change projections of West Nile virus infections in Europe: implications for blood safety practices

Infectious diseases and the impact on transfusion medicine: A historical review and lessons for the future

Blood transfusion saves millions of lives each year. It is a well-established treatment, and many procedures are applied to avoid transmitted infections. However, throughout the history of transfusion medicine, many infectious diseases arose or were recognised, bringing up an impact on the blood supply, as the difficulties in diagnosing new diseases, the decrease in blood donors, the challenges for the medical team, the risks for the receptor and the related costs. This study aims to review historically the principal infectious diseases transmitted through the blood that circulated worldwide in the 20th and 21st centuries, considering the impact on the blood banks. Despite the current blood bank control of transfusion risks and the hemovigilance improvements, transmitted and emerging infections can still compromise the blood bank supply, as we have witnessed during the first waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, new pathogens will continue emerging, and we must be prepared for the future.

Assessing vector competence of mosquitoes from northeastern France to West Nile virus and Usutu virus

West Nile virus (WNV) and Usutu virus (USUV) are two arthropod-borne viruses that circulate in mainland France. Assessing vector competence has only been conducted so far with mosquitoes from southern France while an increasingly active circulation of WNV and USUV has been reported in the last years. The main vectors are mosquitoes of the Culex genus and the common mosquito Culex pipiens. Here, we measure the vector competence of five mosquito species (Aedes rusticus, Aedes albopictus, Anopheles plumbeus, Culex pipiens and Culiseta longiareolata) present in northeastern France. Field-collected populations were exposed to artificial infectious blood meal containing WNV or USUV and examined at different days post-infection. We show that (i) Cx. pipiens transmitted WNV and USUV, (ii) Ae. rusticus only WNV, and (iii) unexpectedly, Ae. albopictus transmitted both WNV and USUV. Less surprising, An. plumbeus was not competent for both viruses. Combined with data on distribution and population dynamics, these assessments of vector competence will help in developing a risk map and implementing appropriate prevention and control measures.

Does climate change transform military medicine and defense medical support?

Background

Climate change has effects on multiple aspects of human life, such as access to food and water, expansion of endemic diseases as well as an increase of natural disasters and related diseases. The objective of this review is to summarize the current knowledge on climate change effects on military occupational health, military healthcare in a deployed setting, and defense medical logistics.

Methods

Online databases and registers were searched on August 22^nd, 2022 and 348 papers retrieved, published between 2000 and 2022, from which we selected 8 publications that described climate effects on military health. Papers were clustered according to a modified theoretical framework for climate change effects on health, and relevant items from each paper were summarized.

Results

During the last decades a growing body of climate change related publications was identified, which report that climate change has a significant impact on human physiology, mental health, water- and vector borne infectious diseases, as well as air pollution. However, regarding the specific climate effects on military health the level of evidence is low. The effects on defense medical logistics include vulnerabilities in the cold supply chain, in medical devices functioning, in need for air conditioning, and in fresh water supply.

Conclusions

Climate change may transform both the theoretical framework and practical implementations in military medicine and military healthcare systems. There are significant knowledge gaps on climate change effects on the health of military personnel in operations of both combat and non-combat nature, alerting the need for prevention and mitigation of climate-related health issues. Further research within the fields of disaster and military medicine is needed to explore this novel field. As climate effects on humans and the medical supply chain may degrade military capability, significant investments in military medical research and development are needed.

Serological Survey of Mosquito-Borne Arboviruses in Wild Birds from Important Migratory Hotspots in Romania

In the context of climate change, globalization, and enhanced human traveling, arboviruses continue to represent a threat to public health. West Nile and Usutu viruses are mosquito-borne viruses belonging to the Flaviviridae family (Flavivirus genus) and members of the Japanese encephalitis virus serocomplex. Included in the Togaviridae family (Alphavirus genus), the Sindbis virus is also vectored by mosquitoes. In the present study, we aimed to analyze the presence of antibodies concerning the abovementioned viruses in migratory and resident birds in the South-Eastern region of Romania, as avian hosts represent the main reservoir for human infection. Blood samples were collected from wild birds between May 2018 and October 2019 in nine locations from three counties. All the samples were serologically tested by ELISA and a serum neutralization test. Overall, a seroprevalence of 8.72% was registered for the West Nile virus, 2.71% for the Usutu virus, and 0% for the Sindbis virus. To our best knowledge, this is the first large-scale comprehensive study to assess the West Nile virus seropositivity in wild birds and the first serological confirmation of the Usutu virus in wild birds in Romania. Moreover, this is the only follow-up study reviewing the current seroprevalence of the Sindbis virus in Romania since 1975.

Mitigating the risk of transfusion-transmitted infections with vector-borne agents solely by means of pathogen reduction

Background

This study evaluated whether pathogen reduction technology (PRT) in plasma and platelets using amotosalen/ultraviolet A light (A/UVA) or in red blood cells using amustaline/glutathione (S‐303/GSH) may be used as the sole mitigation strategy preventing transfusion‐transmitted West Nile (WNV), dengue (DENV), Zika (ZIKV), and chikungunya (CHIKV) viral, and Babesia microti, Trypanosoma cruzi, and Plasmodium parasitic infections.

Methods

Antibody (Ab) status and pathogen loads (copies/mL) were obtained for donations from US blood donors testing nucleic acid (NAT)‐positive for WNV, DENV, ZIKV, CHIKV, and B. microti. Infectivity titers derived from pathogen loads were compared to published PRT log₁₀ reduction factors (LRF); LRFs were also reviewed for Plasmodium and T. cruzi. The potential positive impact on donor retention following removal of deferrals from required questioning and testing for WNV, Babesia, Plasmodium, and T. cruzi was estimated for American Red Cross (ARC) donors.

Results

A/UVA and S‐303/GSH reduced infectivity to levels in accordance with those recognized by FDA as suitable to replace testing for all agents evaluated. If PRT replaced deferrals resulting from health history questions and/or NAT for WNV, Babesia, Plasmodium, and T. cruzi, 27,758 ARC donors could be retained allowing approximately 50,000 additional donations/year based on 1.79 donations/donor for calendar year 2019 (extrapolated to an estimated 125,000 additional donations nationally).

Conclusion

Pathogen loads in donations from US blood donors demonstrated that robust PRT may provide an opportunity to replace deferrals associated with donor questioning and NAT for vector‐borne agents allowing for significant donor retention and likely increased blood availability.

West Nile and Usutu Virus Introduction via Migratory Birds: A Retrospective Analysis in Italy

The actual contribution of migratory birds in spreading West Nile (WNV) and Usutu virus (USUV) across Europe and from Africa to old countries is still controversial. In this study, we reported the results of molecular and serological surveys on migrating birds sampled during peaks of spring and autumn migration at 11 Italian sites located along important flyways, from 2012 to 2014. A total of 1335 specimens made of individual or pooled sera, and organs from 275 dead birds were tested for WNV and USUV RNA by real time PCR (RT-PCR). Furthermore, sera were tested by serum neutralization assay for detecting WNV and USUV neutralizing antibodies. Molecular tests detected WNV lineage 2 RNA in a pool made of three Song Thrush (Turdus philomelos) sera sampled in autumn, and lineage 1 in kidneys of six trans-Saharan birds sampled in spring. Neutralizing antibodies against WNV and USUV were found in 5.80% (n = 72; 17 bird species) and 0.32% (n = 4; 4 bird species) of the tested sera, respectively. Our results do not exclude the role of migratory birds as potential spreaders of WNV and USUV from Africa and Central Europe to Mediterranean areas and highlight the importance of a more extensive active surveillance of zoonotic viruses.

Climate change and zoonoses: A review of the current status, knowledge gaps, and future trends

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs), especially those with zoonotic potential, are a growing threat to global health, economy, and safety. The influence of global warming and geoclimatic variations on zoonotic disease epidemiology is evident by alterations in the host, vector, and pathogen dynamics and their interactions. The objective of this article is to review the current literature on the observed impacts of climate change on zoonoses and discuss future trends. We evaluated several climate models to assess the projections of various zoonoses driven by the predicted climate variations. Many climate projections revealed potential geographical expansion and the severity of vector-borne, waterborne, foodborne, rodent-borne, and airborne zoonoses. However, there are still some knowledge gaps, and further research needs to be conducted to fully understand the magnitude and consequences of some of these changes. Certainly, by understanding the impact of climate change on zoonosis emergence and distribution, we could better plan for climate mitigation and climate adaptation strategies.

West Nile Virus diffusion in temperate regions and climate change. A systematic review

West Nile virus (WNV) is a member of the Japanese encephalitis serocomplex, which was first described in 1937 as neurotropic virus in Uganda in 1937. Subsequently, WNV was identified in the rest of the old-world and from 1999 in North America. Birds are the primary hosts, and WNV is maintained in a bird-mosquito-bird cycle, with pigs as amplifying hosts and humans and horses as incidental hosts. WNV transmission is warranted by mosquitoes, usually of the Culex spp., with a tendency to spill over when mosquitoes' populations build up. Other types of transmissions have been described in endemic areas, as trough transplanted organs and transfused blood, placenta, maternal milk, and in some occupational settings. WNV infections in North America and Europe are generally reported during the summer and autumn. Extreme climate phenomena and soil degradation are important events which contribute to expansion of mosquito population and consequently to the increasing number of infections. Draught plays a pivotal role as it makes foul water standing in city drains and catch basins richer of organic material. The relationship between global warming and WNV in climate areas is depicted by investigations on 16,298 WNV cases observed in the United States during the period 2001-2005 that showed that a 5°C increase in mean maximum weekly temperature was associated with a 32-50% higher incidence of WNV infection. In Europe, during the 2022 season, an increase of WNV cases was observed in Mediterranean countries where 1,041 cases were reported based on ECDC data. This outbreak can be associated to the climate characteristics reported during this period and to the introduction of a new WNV-1 lineage. In conclusion, current climate change is causing an increase of mosquito circulation that supports the widest spread of some vector-borne virus including WNV diffusion in previously non-permissible areas. This warrant public health measures to control vectors circulation to reduce WNV and to screen blood and organ donations.

West Nile virus is predicted to be more geographically widespread in New York State and Connecticut under future climate change

The effects of climate change on infectious diseases are a topic of considerable interest and discussion. We studied West Nile virus (WNV) in New York (NY) and Connecticut (CT) using a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model climate change scenario, which allows us to examine the effects of climate change and variability on WNV risk at county level. We chose WNV because it is well studied, has caused over 50,000 reported human cases, and over 2200 deaths in the United States. The ecological impacts have been substantial (e.g., millions of avian deaths), and economic impacts include livestock deaths, morbidity, and healthcare-related expenses. We trained two Random Forest models with observational climate data and human cases to predict future levels of WNV based on future weather conditions. The Regional Model used present-day data from NY and CT, whereas the Analog Model was fit for states most closely matching the predicted future conditions in the region. Separately, we predicted changes to mosquito-based WNV risk using a trait-based thermal biology approach (Mosquito Model). The WRF model produced control simulations (present day) and pseudo-global warming simulations (future). The Regional and Analog Models predicted an overall increase in human cases of WNV under future warming. However, the Analog Model did not predict as strong of an increase in the number of human cases as the Regional Model, and predicted a decrease in cases in some counties that currently experience high numbers of WNV cases. The Mosquito Model also predicted a decrease in risk in current high-risk areas, with an overall reduction in the population-weighted relative risk (but an increase in area-weighted risk). The Mosquito Model supports the Analog Model as making more realistic predictions than the Regional Model. All three models predicted a geographic increase in WNV cases across NY and CT.

Climate change and infectious disease in Europe: Impact, projection and adaptation

Europeans are not only exposed to direct effects from climate change, but also vulnerable to indirect effects from infectious disease, many of which are climate sensitive, which is of concern because of their epidemic potential. Climatic conditions have facilitated vector-borne disease outbreaks like chikungunya, dengue, and West Nile fever and have contributed to a geographic range expansion of tick vectors that transmit Lyme disease and tick-borne encephalitis. Extreme precipitation events have caused waterborne outbreaks and longer summer seasons have contributed to increases in foodborne diseases. Under the Green Deal, The European Union aims to support climate change health policy, in order to be better prepared for the next health security threat, particularly in the aftermath of the traumatic COVID-19 experience. To bolster this policy process we discuss climate change-related hazards, exposures and vulnerabilities to infectious disease and describe observed impacts, projected risks, with policy entry points for adaptation to reduce these risks or avoid them altogether.

Tracking progress on health and climate change in Europe

Left unabated, climate change will have catastrophic effects on the health of present and future generations. Such effects are already seen in Europe, through more frequent and severe extreme weather events, alterations to water and food systems, and changes in the environmental suitability for infectious diseases. As one of the largest current and historical contributors to greenhouse gases and the largest provider of financing for climate change mitigation and adaptation, Europe's response is crucial, for both human health and the planet. To ensure that health and wellbeing are protected in this response it is essential to build the capacity to understand, monitor, and quantify health impacts of climate change and the health co-benefits of accelerated action. Responding to this need, the Lancet Countdown in Europe is established as a transdisciplinary research collaboration for monitoring progress on health and climate change in Europe. With the wealth of data and academic expertise available in Europe, the collaboration will develop region-specific indicators to address the main challenges and opportunities of Europe's response to climate change for health. The indicators produced by the collaboration will provide information to health and climate policy decision making, and will also contribute to the European Observatory on Climate and Health.

Early warning systems (EWSs) for chikungunya, dengue, malaria, yellow fever, and Zika outbreaks: What is the evidence? A scoping review

BACKGROUND

Early warning systems (EWSs) are of increasing importance in the context of outbreak-prone diseases such as chikungunya, dengue, malaria, yellow fever, and Zika. A scoping review has been undertaken for all 5 diseases to summarize existing evidence of EWS tools in terms of their structural and statistical designs, feasibility of integration and implementation into national surveillance programs, and the users' perspective of their applications.

METHODS

Data were extracted from Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR), Google Scholar, Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACS), PubMed, Web of Science, and WHO Library Database (WHOLIS) databases until August 2019. Included were studies reporting on (a) experiences with existing EWS, including implemented tools; and (b) the development or implementation of EWS in a particular setting. No restrictions were applied regarding year of publication, language or geographical area.

FINDINGS

Through the first screening, 11,710 documents for dengue, 2,757 for Zika, 2,706 for chikungunya, 24,611 for malaria, and 4,963 for yellow fever were identified. After applying the selection criteria, a total of 37 studies were included in this review. Key findings were the following: (1) a large number of studies showed the quality performance of their prediction models but except for dengue outbreaks, only few presented statistical prediction validity of EWS; (2) while entomological, epidemiological, and social media alarm indicators are potentially useful for outbreak warning, almost all studies focus primarily or exclusively on meteorological indicators, which tends to limit the prediction capacity; (3) no assessment of the integration of the EWS into a routine surveillance system could be found, and only few studies addressed the users' perspective of the tool; (4) almost all EWS tools require highly skilled users with advanced statistics; and (5) spatial prediction remains a limitation with no tool currently able to map high transmission areas at small spatial level.

CONCLUSIONS

In view of the escalating infectious diseases as global threats, gaps and challenges are significantly present within the EWS applications. While some advanced EWS showed high prediction abilities, the scarcity of tool assessments in terms of integration into existing national surveillance systems as well as of the feasibility of transforming model outputs into local vector control or action plans tends to limit in most cases the support of countries in controlling disease outbreaks.

Meteorological patterns and the evolution of West Nile virus in an environmentally stressed Mediterranean area

The present work investigates the increase of confirmed cases of West Nile virus and the relationship between weather-related patterns and the geographical expansion of West Nile virus in Greece, with a special focus on West Attica, Central Greece, a semi-arid, ecologically fragile Mediterranean area. Using data from the European Environment Agency, European Drought Observatory of Joint Research Centre, the pairwise relationship between surface air temperature anomalies, precipitation anomalies, soil moisture index anomalies, and the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation anomalies (fAPAR) was evaluated during summer time of 2018, a particularly intense virus outbreak. The empirical results of this study indicate that total precipitation during 2018 was extremely high, nearly 500% above the average. These conditions contributed to the increase of soil moisture index anomaly and fAPAR, creating an ideal microenvironment (wet soils and green pastures) for mosquito breeding. This phenomenon was directly associated with a drastic outbreak of West Nile virus cases in the area, compared with earlier years. Our results indicate how unusually high values of summer precipitation may have contributed (both through direct and indirect ecological channels) to the rapid spread of the West Nile virus in West Attica, causing a significant number of confirmed cases and fatalities. Climate change may bring forth other issues aside from natural disasters, including-but not limited to-virus expansion.

Evidence of Exposure to USUV and WNV in Zoo Animals in France

West Nile virus (WNV) and Usutu virus (USUV) are zoonotic arboviruses. These flaviviruses are mainly maintained in the environment through an enzootic cycle involving mosquitoes and birds. Horses and humans are incidental, dead-end hosts, but can develop severe neurological disorders. Nevertheless, there is little data regarding the involvement of other mammals in the epidemiology of these arboviruses. In this study, we performed a serosurvey to assess exposure to these viruses in captive birds and mammals in a zoo situated in the south of France, an area described for the circulation of these two viruses. A total of 411 samples comprising of 70 species were collected over 16 years from 2003 to 2019. The samples were first tested by a competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The positive sera were then tested using virus-specific microneutralization tests against USUV and WNV. USUV seroprevalence in birds was 10 times higher than that of WNV (14.59% versus 1.46%, respectively). Among birds, greater rhea (Rhea Americana) and common peafowl (Pavo cristatus) exhibited the highest USUV seroprevalence. Infections occurred mainly between 2016-2018 corresponding to a period of high circulation of these viruses in Europe. In mammalian species, antibodies against WNV were detected in one dama gazelle (Nanger dama) whereas serological evidence of USUV infection was observed in several Canidae, especially in African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus). Our study helps to better understand the exposure of captive species to WNV and USUV and to identify potential host species to include in surveillance programs in zoos.

Contrasted Epidemiological Patterns of West Nile Virus Lineages 1 and 2 Infections in France from 2015 to 2019

Since 2015, annual West Nile virus (WNV) outbreaks of varying intensities have been reported in France. Recent intensification of enzootic WNV circulation was observed in the South of France with most horse cases detected in 2015 (n = 49), 2018 (n = 13), and 2019 (n = 13). A WNV lineage 1 strain was isolated from a horse suffering from West Nile neuro-invasive disease (WNND) during the 2015 episode in the Camargue area. A breaking point in WNV epidemiology was achieved in 2018, when WNV lineage 2 emerged in Southeastern areas. This virus most probably originated from WNV spread from Northern Italy and caused WNND in humans and the death of diurnal raptors. WNV lineage 2 emergence was associated with the most important human WNV epidemics identified so far in France (n = 26, including seven WNND cases and two infections in blood and organ donors). Two other major findings were the detection of WNV in areas with no or limited history of WNV circulation (Alpes-Maritimes in 2018, Corsica in 2018–2019, and Var in 2019) and distinct spatial distribution of human and horse WNV cases. These new data reinforce the necessity to enhance French WNV surveillance to better anticipate future WNV epidemics and epizootics and to improve the safety of blood and organ donations.

Transmission of West Nile and five other temperate mosquito-borne viruses peaks at temperatures between 23°C and 26°C

The temperature-dependence of many important mosquito-borne diseases has never been quantified. These relationships are critical for understanding current distributions and predicting future shifts from climate change. We used trait-based models to characterize temperature-dependent transmission of 10 vector-pathogen pairs of mosquitoes (Culex pipiens, Cx. quinquefascsiatus, Cx. tarsalis, and others) and viruses (West Nile, Eastern and Western Equine Encephalitis, St. Louis Encephalitis, Sindbis, and Rift Valley Fever viruses), most with substantial transmission in temperate regions. Transmission is optimized at intermediate temperatures (23-26°C) and often has wider thermal breadths (due to cooler lower thermal limits) compared to pathogens with predominately tropical distributions (in previous studies). The incidence of human West Nile virus cases across US counties responded unimodally to average summer temperature and peaked at 24°C, matching model-predicted optima (24-25°C). Climate warming will likely shift transmission of these diseases, increasing it in cooler locations while decreasing it in warmer locations.

Spatial risk analysis for the introduction and circulation of six arboviruses in the Netherlands

Background

Arboviruses are a growing public health concern in Europe, with both endemic and exotic arboviruses expected to spread further into novel areas in the next decades. Predicting where future outbreaks will occur is a major challenge, particularly for regions where these arboviruses are not endemic. Spatial modelling of ecological risk factors for arbovirus circulation can help identify areas of potential emergence. Moreover, combining hazard maps of different arboviruses may facilitate a cost-efficient, targeted multiplex-surveillance strategy in areas where virus transmission is most likely. Here, we developed predictive hazard maps for the introduction and/or establishment of six arboviruses that were previously prioritized for the Netherlands: West Nile virus, Japanese encephalitis virus, Rift Valley fever virus, tick-borne encephalitis virus, louping-ill virus and Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus.

Methods

Our spatial model included ecological risk factors that were identified as relevant for these arboviruses by an earlier systematic review, including abiotic conditions, vector abundance, and host availability. We used geographic information system (GIS)-based tools and geostatistical analyses to model spatially continuous datasets on these risk factors to identify regions in the Netherlands with suitable ecological conditions for arbovirus introduction and establishment.

Results

The resulting hazard maps show that there is spatial clustering of areas with either a relatively low or relatively high environmental suitability for arbovirus circulation. Moreover, there was some overlap in high-hazard areas for virus introduction and/or establishment, particularly in the southern part of the country.

Conclusions

The similarities in environmental suitability for some of the arboviruses provide opportunities for targeted sampling of vectors and/or sentinel hosts in these potential hotspots of emergence, thereby increasing the efficient use of limited resources for surveillance.

Impacts of climate change on the public health of the Mediterranean Basin population - Current situation, projections, preparedness and adaptation

The Mediterranean Basin is undergoing a warming trend with longer and warmer summers, an increase in the frequency and the severity of heat waves, changes in precipitation patterns and a reduction in rainfall amounts. In this unique populated region, which is characterized by significant gaps in the socio-economic levels particularly between the North (Europe) and South (Africa), parallel with population growth and migration, increased water demand and forest fires risk - the vulnerability of the Mediterranean population to human health risks increases significantly. Indeed, climatic changes impact the health of the Mediterranean population directly through extreme heat, drought or storms, or indirectly by changes in water availability, food provision and quality, air pollution and other stressors. The main health effects are related to extreme weather events (including extreme temperatures and floods), changes in the distribution of climate-sensitive diseases and changes in environmental and social conditions. The poorer countries, particularly in North Africa and the Levant, are at highest risk. Climate change affects the vulnerable sectors of the region, including an increasingly older population, with a larger percentage of those with chronic diseases, as well as poor people, which are therefore more susceptible to the effects of extreme temperatures. For those populations, a better surveillance and control systems are especially needed. In view of the climatic projections and the vulnerability of Mediterranean countries, climate change mitigation and adaptation become ever more imperative. It is important that prevention Health Action Plans will be implemented, particularly in those countries that currently have no prevention plans. Most adaptation measures are "win-win situation" from a health perspective, including reducing air pollution or providing shading solutions. Additionally, Mediterranean countries need to enhance cross-border collaboration, as adaptation to many of the health risks requires collaboration across borders and also across the different parts of the basin.

The knowns and unknowns of West Nile virus in Europe: what did we learn from the 2018 outbreak?

Introduction: West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne human and animal pathogen with nearly worldwide distribution. In Europe, the virus is endemic with seasonal regional outbreaks that have increased in frequency over the last 10 years. A massive outbreak occurred across southern and central Europe in 2018 with the number of confirmed human cases increasing up to 7.2-fold from the previous year, and expanding to include previously virus-free regions.Areas covered: This review focuses on potential causes that may explain the 2018 European WNV outbreak. We discuss the role genetic, ecological, and environmental aspects may have played in the increased activity during the 2018 transmission season, summarizing the latest epidemiological and virological publications.Expert opinion: Optimal environmental conditions, specifically increased temperature, were most likely responsible for the observed outbreak. Other factors cannot be ruled out due to limited available information, including factors that may influence host/vector abundance and contact. Europe will likely experience even larger-scale outbreaks in the coming years. Increased surveillance efforts should be implemented with a focus on early-warning detection methods, and large-scale host and vector surveys should continue to fill gaps in knowledge.

West Nile and Usutu Virus Infections and Challenges to Blood Safety in the European Union

West Nile virus (WNV) and Usutu virus (USUV) circulate in several European Union (EU) countries. The risk of transfusion-transmitted West Nile virus (TT-WNV) has been recognized, and preventive blood safety measures have been implemented. We summarized the applied interventions in the EU countries and assessed the safety of the blood supply by compiling data on WNV positivity among blood donors and on reported TT-WNV cases. The paucity of reported TT-WNV infections and the screening results suggest that blood safety interventions are effective. However, limited circulation of WNV in the EU and presumed underrecognition or underreporting of TT-WNV cases contribute to the present situation. Because of cross-reactivity between genetically related flaviviruses in the automated nucleic acid test systems, USUV-positive blood donations are found during routine WNV screening. The clinical relevance of USUV infection in humans and the risk of USUV to blood safety are unknown.

The Role of Temperature in Transmission of Zoonotic Arboviruses

We reviewed the literature on the role of temperature in transmission of zoonotic arboviruses. Vector competence is affected by both direct and indirect effects of temperature, and generally increases with increasing temperature, but results may vary by vector species, population, and viral strain. Temperature additionally has a significant influence on life history traits of vectors at both immature and adult life stages, and for important behaviors such as blood-feeding and mating. Similar to vector competence, temperature effects on life history traits can vary by species and population. Vector, host, and viral distributions are all affected by temperature, and are generally expected to change with increased temperatures predicted under climate change. Arboviruses are generally expected to shift poleward and to higher elevations under climate change, yet significant variability on fine geographic scales is likely. Temperature effects are generally unimodal, with increases in abundance up to an optimum, and then decreases at high temperatures. Improved vector distribution information could facilitate future distribution modeling. A wide variety of approaches have been used to model viral distributions, although most research has focused on the West Nile virus. Direct temperature effects are frequently observed, as are indirect effects, such as through droughts, where temperature interacts with rainfall. Thermal biology approaches hold much promise for syntheses across viruses, vectors, and hosts, yet future studies must consider the specificity of interactions and the dynamic nature of evolving biological systems.

Evidence of West Nile Virus (WNV) Circulation in Wild Birds and WNV RNA Negativity in Mosquitoes of the Danube Delta Biosphere Reserve, Romania, 2016

West Nile virus (WNV) is a zoonotic flavivirus whose transmission cycle in nature includes wild birds as amplifying hosts and ornithophilic mosquito vectors. Bridge vectors can transmit WNV to mammal species potentially causing West Nile Fever. Wild bird migration is a mode of WNV introduction into new areas. The Danube Delta Biosphere Reserve (DDBR) is a major stopover of wild birds migrating between Europe and Africa. The aim of this study was to investigate the presence of WNV in the DDBR during the 2016 transmission season in wild birds and mosquitoes. Blood from 68 wild birds (nine different species) trapped at four different locations was analyzed by competitive ELISA and Virus Neutralization Test (VNT), revealing positive results in 8/68 (11.8%) of the wild birds by ELISA of which six samples (three from juvenile birds) were confirmed seropositive by VNT. Mosquitoes (n = 6523, 5 genera) were trapped with CDC Mini Light traps at two locations and in one location resting mosquitoes were caught. The presence of WNV RNA was tested in 134 pools by reverse transcription quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR). None of the pools was positive for WNV-specific RNA. Based on the obtained results, WNV was circulating in the DDBR during 2016.

Vector-borne diseases and climate change: a European perspective

Climate change has already impacted the transmission of a wide range of vector-borne diseases in Europe, and it will continue to do so in the coming decades. Climate change has been implicated in the observed shift of ticks to elevated altitudes and latitudes, notably including the Ixodes ricinus tick species that is a vector for Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis. Climate change is also thought to have been a factor in the expansion of other important disease vectors in Europe: Aedes albopictus (the Asian tiger mosquito), which transmits diseases such as Zika, dengue and chikungunya, and Phlebotomus sandfly species, which transmits diseases including Leishmaniasis. In addition, highly elevated temperatures in the summer of 2010 have been associated with an epidemic of West Nile Fever in Southeast Europe and subsequent outbreaks have been linked to summer temperature anomalies. Future climate-sensitive health impacts are challenging to project quantitatively, in part due to the intricate interplay between non-climatic and climatic drivers, weather-sensitive pathogens and climate-change adaptation. Moreover, globalisation and international air travel contribute to pathogen and vector dispersion internationally. Nevertheless, monitoring forecasts of meteorological conditions can help detect epidemic precursors of vector-borne disease outbreaks and serve as early warning systems for risk reduction.

Unexplored Opportunities: Use of Climate- and Weather-Driven Early Warning Systems to Reduce the Burden of Infectious Diseases

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Weather and climate influence multiple aspects of infectious disease ecology. Creating and applying early warning systems based on temperature, precipitation, and other environmental data can identify where and when outbreaks of climate-sensitive infectious diseases could occur and can be used by decision makers to allocate resources. Whether an outbreak actually occurs depends heavily on other social, political, and institutional factors.

RECENT FINDINGS

Improving the timing and confidence of seasonal climate forecasting, coupled with knowledge of exposure-response relationships, can identify prior conditions conducive to disease outbreaks weeks to months in advance of outbreaks. This information could then be used by public health professionals to improve surveillance in the most likely areas for threats. Early warning systems are well established for drought and famine. And while weather- and climate-driven early warning systems for certain diseases, such as dengue fever and cholera, are employed in some regions, this area of research is underdeveloped. Early warning systems based on temperature, precipitation, and other environmental data provide an opportunity for early detection leading to early action and response to potential pathogen threats, thereby reducing the burden of disease when compared with passive health indicator-based surveillance systems.

Climate change impact on migration, travel, travel destinations and the tourism industry

Background: Climate change is not only increasing ambient temperature but also accelerating the frequency, duration and intensity of extreme weather and climate events, such as heavy precipitation and droughts, and causing sea level rise, which can lead to population displacement. Climate change-related reductions in land productivity and habitability and in food and water security can also interact with demographic, economic and social factors to increase migration. In addition to migration, climate change has also implications for travel and the risk of disease. This article discusses the impact of climate change on migration and travel with implications for public health practice. Methods: Literature review. Results: Migrants may be at increased risk of communicable and non-communicable diseases, due to factors in their country of origin and their country of destination or conditions that they experience during migration. Although migration has not been a significant driver of communicable disease outbreaks to date, public health authorities need to ensure that effective screening and vaccination programmes for priority communicable diseases are in place.Population growth coupled with socio-economic development is increasing travel and tourism, and advances in technology have increased global connectivity and reduced the time required to cover long distances. At the same time, as a result of climate change, many temperate regions, including high-income countries, are now suitable for vector-borne disease transmission. This is providing opportunities for importation of vectors and pathogens from endemic areas that can lead to cases or outbreaks of communicable diseases with which health professionals may be unfamiliar. Conclusion: Health systems need to be prepared for the potential population health consequences of migration, travel and tourism and the impact of climate change on these. Integrated surveillance, early detection of cases and other public health interventions are critical to protect population health and prevent and control communicabledisease outbreaks.

Effects of climate change on vector-borne diseases: an updated focus on West Nile virus in humans

One of the main impacts of climate change on health is the influence on vector-borne diseases (VBDs). During the last few years, yearly outbreaks of the West Nile virus (WNV) have occurred in many locations, providing evidence of ongoing transmission. Currently, it is the most widely distributed arbovirus in the world. Increases in ambient temperature have impacts on WNV transmission. Indeed, clear associations were found between warm conditions and WNV outbreaks in various areas. The impact of changes in rainfall patterns on the incidence of the disease is influenced by the amount of precipitation (increased rainfall, floods or droughts), depending on the local conditions and the differences in the ecology and sensitivity of the species of mosquito. Predictions indicate that for WNV, increased warming will result in latitudinal and altitudinal expansions of regions climatically suitable for transmission, particularly along the current edges of its transmission areas. Extension of the transmission season is also predicted. As models show that the current climate change trends are expected to continue, it is important to reinforce WNV control efforts and increase the resilience of population health. For a better preparedness, any assessment of future transmission of WNV should consider the impacts of the changing climate.

Global warming and arboviral infections

Climate change is already expanding the geographic footprint of arboviral infections. In this article we consider the impact of climate change on three arboviruses with particular consideration of the effect on Europe.

Drought and immunity determine the intensity of West Nile virus epidemics and climate change impacts

The effect of global climate change on infectious disease remains hotly debated because multiple extrinsic and intrinsic drivers interact to influence transmission dynamics in nonlinear ways. The dominant drivers of widespread pathogens, like West Nile virus, can be challenging to identify due to regional variability in vector and host ecology, with past studies producing disparate findings. Here, we used analyses at national and state scales to examine a suite of climatic and intrinsic drivers of continental-scale West Nile virus epidemics, including an empirically derived mechanistic relationship between temperature and transmission potential that accounts for spatial variability in vectors. We found that drought was the primary climatic driver of increased West Nile virus epidemics, rather than within-season or winter temperatures, or precipitation independently. Local-scale data from one region suggested drought increased epidemics via changes in mosquito infection prevalence rather than mosquito abundance. In addition, human acquired immunity following regional epidemics limited subsequent transmission in many states. We show that over the next 30 years, increased drought severity from climate change could triple West Nile virus cases, but only in regions with low human immunity. These results illustrate how changes in drought severity can alter the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases.

Neglected vector-borne zoonoses in Europe: Into the wild

Wild vertebrates are involved in the transmission cycles of numerous pathogens. Additionally, they can affect the abundance of arthropod vectors. Urbanization, landscape and climate changes, and the adaptation of vectors and wildlife to human habitats represent complex and evolving scenarios, which affect the interface of vector, wildlife and human populations, frequently with a consequent increase in zoonotic risk. While considerable attention has focused on these interrelations with regard to certain major vector-borne pathogens such as Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. and tick-borne encephalitis virus, information regarding many other zoonotic pathogens is more dispersed. In this review, we discuss the possible role of wildlife in the maintenance and spread of some of these neglected zoonoses in Europe. We present case studies on the role of rodents in the cycles of Bartonella spp., of wild ungulates in the cycle of Babesia spp., and of various wildlife species in the life cycle of Leishmania infantum, Anaplasma phagocytophilum and Rickettsia spp. These examples highlight the usefulness of surveillance strategies focused on neglected zoonotic agents in wildlife as a source of valuable information for health professionals, nature managers and (local) decision-makers. These benefits could be further enhanced by increased collaboration between researchers and stakeholders across Europe and a more harmonised and coordinated approach for data collection.

An Integrative Eco-Epidemiological Analysis of West Nile Virus Transmission

West Nile disease, caused by the West Nile virus (WNV), is a mosquito-borne zoonotic disease affecting humans and horses that involves wild birds as amplifying hosts. The mechanisms of WNV transmission remain unclear in Europe where the occurrence of outbreaks has dramatically increased in recent years. We used a dataset on the competence, distribution, abundance, diversity and dispersal of wild bird hosts and mosquito vectors to test alternative hypotheses concerning the transmission of WNV in Southern France. We modelled the successive processes of introduction, amplification, dispersal and spillover of WNV to incidental hosts based on host-vector contact rates on various land cover types and over four seasons. We evaluated the relative importance of the mechanisms tested using two independent serological datasets of WNV antibodies collected in wild birds and horses. We found that the same transmission processes (seasonal virus introduction by migratory birds, Culex modestus mosquitoes as amplifying vectors, heterogeneity in avian host competence, absence of 'dilution effect') best explain the spatial variations in WNV seroprevalence in the two serological datasets. Our results provide new insights on the pathways of WNV introduction, amplification and spillover and the contribution of bird and mosquito species to WNV transmission in Southern France.

Modelling West Nile virus transmission risk in Europe: effect of temperature and mosquito biotypes on the basic reproduction number

West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus which has caused repeated outbreaks in humans in southern and central Europe, but thus far not in northern Europe. The main mosquito vector for WNV, Culex pipiens, consists of two behaviourally distinct biotypes, pipiens and molestus, which can form hybrids. Differences between biotypes, such as vector competence and host preference, could be important in determining the risk of WNV outbreaks. Risks for WNV establishment can be modelled with basic reproduction number (R₀) models. However, existing R₀ models have not differentiated between biotypes. The aim of this study was, therefore, to explore the role of temperature-dependent and biotype-specific effects on the risk of WNV establishment in Europe. We developed an R₀ model with temperature-dependent and biotype-specific parameters, and calculated R₀ values using the next-generation matrix for several scenarios relevant for Europe. In addition, elasticity analysis was done to investigate the contribution of each biotype to R₀. Global warming and increased mosquito-to-host ratios can possibly result in more intense WNV circulation in birds and spill-over to humans in northern Europe. Different contributions of the Cx. pipiens biotypes to R₀ shows the importance of including biotype-specific parameters in models for reliable WNV risk assessments.

Determinants and Drivers of Infectious Disease Threat Events in Europe

Infectious disease threat events (IDTEs) are increasing in frequency worldwide. We analyzed underlying drivers of 116 IDTEs detected in Europe during 2008-2013 by epidemic intelligence at the European Centre of Disease Prevention and Control. Seventeen drivers were identified and categorized into 3 groups: globalization and environment, sociodemographic, and public health systems. A combination of >2 drivers was responsible for most IDTEs. The driver category globalization and environment contributed to 61% of individual IDTEs, and the top 5 individual drivers of all IDTEs were travel and tourism, food and water quality, natural environment, global trade, and climate. Hierarchical cluster analysis of all drivers identified travel and tourism as a distinctly separate driver. Monitoring and modeling such disease drivers can help anticipate future IDTEs and strengthen control measures. More important, intervening directly on these underlying drivers can diminish the likelihood of the occurrence of an IDTE and reduce the associated human and economic costs.

Determinants and Drivers of Infectious Disease Threat Events in Europe

Globalization and environment, the most frequent underlying drivers, should be targeted for interventions to prevent such events.

Infectious disease threat events (IDTEs) are increasing in frequency worldwide. We analyzed underlying drivers of 116 IDTEs detected in Europe during 2008–2013 by epidemic intelligence at the European Centre of Disease Prevention and Control. Seventeen drivers were identified and categorized into 3 groups: globalization and environment, sociodemographic, and public health systems. A combination of >2 drivers was responsible for most IDTEs. The driver category globalization and environment contributed to 61% of individual IDTEs, and the top 5 individual drivers of all IDTEs were travel and tourism, food and water quality, natural environment, global trade, and climate. Hierarchical cluster analysis of all drivers identified travel and tourism as a distinctly separate driver. Monitoring and modeling such disease drivers can help anticipate future IDTEs and strengthen control measures. More important, intervening directly on these underlying drivers can diminish the likelihood of the occurrence of an IDTE and reduce the associated human and economic costs.

Observed and projected drivers of emerging infectious diseases in Europe

Emerging infectious diseases are of international concern because of the potential for, and impact of, pandemics; however, they are difficult to predict. To identify the drivers of disease emergence, we analyzed infectious disease threat events (IDTEs) detected through epidemic intelligence collected at the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) between 2008 and 2013, and compared the observed results with a 2008 ECDC foresight study of projected drivers of future IDTEs in Europe. Among 10 categories of IDTEs, foodborne and waterborne IDTEs were the most common, vaccine-preventable IDTEs caused the highest number of cases, and airborne IDTEs caused the most deaths. Observed drivers for each IDTE were sorted into three main groups: globalization and environmental drivers contributed to 61% of all IDTEs, public health system drivers contributed to 21%, and social and demographic drivers to 18%. A multiple logistic regression analysis showed that four of the top five drivers for observed IDTEs were in the globalization and environment group. In the observational study, the globalization and environment group was related to all IDTE categories, but only to five of eight categories in the foresight study. Directly targeting these drivers with public health interventions may diminish the chances of IDTE occurrence from the outset.

Challenges and Opportunities for Urban Environmental Health and Sustainability: the HEALTHY-POLIS initiative

Cities around the world face many environmental health challenges including contamination of air, water and soil, traffic congestion and noise, and poor housing conditions exacerbated by unsustainable urban development and climate change. Integrated assessment of these risks offers opportunities for holistic, low carbon solutions in the urban environment that can bring multiple benefits for public health. The Healthy-Polis consortium aims to protect and promote urban health through multi-disciplinary, policy-relevant research on urban environmental health and sustainability. We are doing this by promoting improved methods of health risk assessment, facilitating international collaboration, contributing to the training of research scientists and students, and engaging with key stakeholders in government, local authorities, international organisations, industry and academia. A major focus of the consortium is to promote and support international research projects coordinated between two or more countries. The disciplinary areas represented in the consortium are many and varied, including environmental epidemiology, modelling and exposure assessment, system dynamics, health impact assessment, multi-criteria decision analysis, and other quantitative and qualitative approaches. This Healthy-Polis special issue presents a range of case studies and reviews that illustrate the need for a systems-based understanding of the urban environment.

Urbanization and health in China, thinking at the national, local and individual levels

BACKGROUND

China has the biggest population in the world, and has been experiencing the largest migration in history, and its rapid urbanization has profound and lasting impacts on local and national public health. Under these conditions, a systems understanding on the correlation among urbanization, environmental change and public health and to devise solutions at national, local and individual levels are in urgent need.

METHODS

In this paper, we provide a comprehensive review of recent studies which have examined the relationship between urbanization, urban environmental changes and human health in China. Based on the review, coupled with a systems understanding, we summarize the challenges and opportunities for promoting the health and wellbeing of the whole nation at national, local, and individual levels.

RESULTS

Urbanization and urban expansion result in urban environmental changes, as well as residents' lifestyle change, which can lead independently and synergistically to human health problems. China has undergone an epidemiological transition, shifting from infectious to chronic diseases in a much shorter time frame than many other countries. Environmental risk factors, particularly air and water pollution, are a major contributing source of morbidity and mortality in China. Furthermore, aging population, food support system, and disparity of public service between the migrant worker and local residents are important contributions to China's urban health.

CONCLUSIONS

At the national level, the central government could improve current environmental policies, food safety laws, and make adjustments to the health care system and to demographic policy. At the local level, local government could incorporate healthy life considerations in urban planning procedures, make improvements to the local food supply, and enforce environmental monitoring and management. At the individual level, urban residents can be exposed to education regarding health behaviour choices while being encouraged to take responsibility for their health and to participate in environmental monitoring and management.