Public activities preceding the onset of acute respiratory infection syndromes in adults in England - implications for the use of social distancing to control pandemic respiratory infections

Deprivation, essential and non-essential activities and SARS-CoV-2 infection following the lifting of national public health restrictions in England and Wales

Background

Individuals living in deprived areas in England and Wales undertook essential activities more frequently and experienced higher rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection than less deprived communities during periods of restrictions aimed at controlling the Alpha (B.1.1.7) variant. We aimed to understand whether these deprivation-related differences changed once restrictions were lifted.

Methods

Among 11,231 adult Virus Watch Community Cohort Study participants multivariable logistic regressions were used to estimate the relationships between deprivation and self-reported activities and deprivation and infection (self-reported lateral flow or PCR tests and linkage to National Testing data and Second Generation Surveillance System (SGSS)) between August - December 2021, following the lifting of national public health restrictions.

Results

Those living in areas of greatest deprivation were more likely to undertake essential activities (leaving home for work (aOR 1.56 (1.33 - 1.83)), using public transport (aOR 1.33 (1.13 - 1.57)) but less likely to undertake non-essential activities (indoor hospitality (aOR 0.82 (0.70 - 0.96)), outdoor hospitality (aOR 0.56 (0.48 - 0.66)), indoor leisure (aOR 0.63 (0.54 - 0.74)), outdoor leisure (aOR 0.64 (0.46 - 0.88)), or visit a hairdresser (aOR 0.72 (0.61 - 0.85))). No statistical association was observed between deprivation and infection (P=0.5745), with those living in areas of greatest deprivation no more likely to become infected with SARS-CoV-2 (aOR 1.25 (0.87 - 1.79).

Conclusion

The lack of association between deprivation and infection is likely due to the increased engagement in non-essential activities among the least deprived balancing the increased work-related exposure among the most deprived. The differences in activities highlight stark disparities in an individuals' ability to choose how to limit infection exposure.

Common cold

The common cold is a unique human disease, as it is arguably the most common disease and because of the large number of respiratory viruses causing colds it is one of the most complex of human diseases. This review discusses the respiratory viruses and notes that all these viruses may cause the illness complex recognised as the common cold. The common cold is discussed as part of the "iceberg concept" of disease which ranges from asymptomatic infection to severe illness and death. The factors influencing the incidence of colds are discussed: crowding and sociability, stress, smoking and alcohol, immune status, sex, age, sleep, season, chilling, nutrition and exercise. The mechanism of symptoms related to the innate immune response is explained and symptomatic treatments are tabulated. Morbidity associated with common cold is discussed and possible vaccines.

A case-crossover study of the effect of vaccination on SARS-CoV-2 transmission relevant behaviours during a period of national lockdown in England and Wales

BACKGROUND

Studies of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness show increases in COVID-19 cases within 14 days of a first dose, potentially reflecting post-vaccination behaviour changes associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission before vaccine protection. However, direct evidence for a relationship between vaccination and behaviour is lacking. We aimed to examine the association between vaccination status and self-reported non-household contacts and non-essential activities during a national lockdown in England and Wales.

METHODS

Participants (n = 1154) who had received the first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine reported non-household contacts and non-essential activities from February to March 2021 in monthly surveys during a national lockdown in England and Wales. We used a case-crossover study design and conditional logistic regression to examine the association between vaccination status (pre-vaccination vs 14 days post-vaccination) and self-reported contacts and activities within individuals. Stratified subgroup analyses examined potential effect heterogeneity by sociodemographic characteristics such as sex, household income or age group.

RESULTS

457/1154 (39.60 %) participants reported non-household contacts post-vaccination compared with 371/1154 (32.15 %) participants pre-vaccination. 100/1154 (8.67 %) participants reported use of non-essential shops or services post-vaccination compared with 74/1154 (6.41 %) participants pre-vaccination. Post-vaccination status was associated with increased odds of reporting non-household contacts (OR 1.65, 95 % CI 1.31-2.06, p < 0.001) and use of non-essential shops or services (OR 1.50, 95 % CI 1.03-2.17, p = 0.032). This effect varied between men and women and different age groups.

CONCLUSION

Participants had higher odds of reporting non-household contacts and use of non-essential shops or services within 14 days of their first COVID-19 vaccine compared to pre-vaccination. Public health emphasis on maintaining protective behaviours during this post-vaccination time period when individuals have yet to develop full protection from vaccination could reduce risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

The effectiveness of social distancing in reducing transmission during influenza epidemics: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Social distance practices are crucial for outpatient clinics during disease outbreaks and are an effective preventive measure for reducing influenza transmission during such pandemics in people with poor health.

METHODS

This study applies an evidence-based practice (EBP) approach to confirm the effectiveness of social distancing in healthy individuals during an influenza pandemic and employs the induced ordered weighted averaging model to confirm the effectiveness of EBP. The study design, validity, reliability, results, and generalizability focused on discussing three systematic reviews and two cohort studies via the Critical Appraisal Skills Programme (CASP). First, by introducing the patient, intervention, comparison, outcome (PICO) question; second, by establishing the five steps of EBP; third, by utilizing the CASP checklist for the appraisal; and finally, by presenting a conclusion.

RESULTS

According to the hierarchy of evidence, preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses retrieved five articles for addressing the PICO question. All the evidence demonstrates that social distancing is valuable during influenza pandemics among non-infected individuals. Precise, timely, and robust social distancing implementation can reduce the spread of infection, delay the epidemic peak, and ease the pressure on healthcare resources. Gatekeepers are responsible for guiding individuals through the implementation process for reducing influenza transmission, particularly in densely populated areas.

CONCLUSIONS

Social distance is crucial for outpatient clinics during an epidemic and effectively reduces the spread of infection, delay epidemic peaks, and eases pressure on healthcare resources.

The Association between Occupational Stress and Mental Health among Chinese Soccer Referees in the Early Stage of Reopening Soccer Matches during the COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak: A Moderated Mediation Model

BACKGROUND

The sudden and unpredictable changes caused by the COVID-19 pandemic are a serious threat to the occupational stress and mental health of referees worldwide, which has not attracted widespread attention. The mental health of football referees has a certain influence on their job satisfaction or the accuracy of judgments.

METHODS

This study constructed a moderated mediation model to explore the buffer factors between occupational stress and mental health in Chinese soccer referees in the early stage of reopening soccer matches during the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. Data from 317 Chinese soccer referees (aged 19-45) were collected through an online questionnaire in September-October 2022. Occupational stress, mental health, job burnout and perceived social support were measured, and moderated mediation model was analyzed.

RESULTS

The results of this study showed that occupational stress was negatively correlated with mental health through the mediating effect of job burnout and the moderated effect of perceived social support after controlling for demographic variables. Specifically, the association between occupational stress and mental health was weaker when perceived social support was higher and stronger.

CONCLUSIONS

The results demonstrate that job burnout and perceived social support played important roles in buffering the negative effects of occupational stress on the mental health of Chinese soccer referees in the early stage of reopening soccer matches during the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. The findings provide implications for mental health interventions in soccer referees during the public health crises.

The impact of COVID-19 on future public transport use in Scotland

This paper examines the determinants of changes in future public transport use in Scotland after the COVID-19 pandemic. An online questionnaire was distributed to 994 Scottish residents in order to identify travel habits, attitudes and preferences during the different phases of the COVID-19 outbreak and travel intentions after the pandemic. Quota constraints were enforced for age, gender and household income to ensure the sample was representative of the Scottish population. The respondents indicated that they anticipated they would make less use of buses and trains at the end of the pandemic. Over a third expect to use buses (36%) and trains (34%) less, whilst a quarter expect to drive their cars more. As part of the analysis, a random parameter bivariate probit model with heterogeneity in the means of random parameters was estimated to provide insights into the socio-demographic, behavioural and perceptual factors which might affect future public transport usage. The inclusion of random parameters allows for the potential effects of unobserved heterogeneity within the independent variables to be captured, whilst making allowances for heterogeneity in the means of the random parameters. The model estimation showed that several factors, including pre-lockdown travel choices, perceived risk of COVID-19 infection, household size and region significantly affected intended future use of public transport. In addition, several variables related to age, region, pre-lockdown travel choices and employment status resulted in random parameters. The current paper contributes to our understanding of the potential loss of demand for public transport and the consequences for future equitable and sustainable mobility. Our findings are highly relevant for transport policy when developing measures to strengthen the resilience of the public transport system during and after the pandemic.

Identifying socio-ecological drivers of common cold in Bhutan: a national surveillance data analysis

The common cold is a leading cause of morbidity and contributes significantly to the health costs in Bhutan. The study utilized multivariate Zero-inflated Poisson regression in a Bayesian framework to identify climatic variability and spatial and temporal patterns of the common cold in Bhutan. There were 2,480,509 notifications of common cold between 2010 and 2018. Children aged < 15 years were twice (95% credible interval [CrI] 2.2, 2.5) as likely to get common cold than adults, and males were 12.4% (95 CrI 5.5%, 18.7%) less likely to get common cold than females. A 10 mm increase in rainfall lagged one month, and each 1 °C increase of maximum temperature was associated with a 5.1% (95% CrI 4.2%, 6.1%) and 2.6% (95% CrI 2.3%, 2.8%) increase in the risk of cold respectively. An increase in elevation of 100 m and 1% increase in relative humidity lagged three months were associated with a decrease in risk of common cold by 0.1% (95% CrI 0.1%, 0.2%) and 0.3% (95% CrI 0.2%, 0.3%) respectively. Seasonality and spatial heterogeneity can partly be explained by the association of common cold to climatic variables. There was statistically significant residual clustering after accounting for covariates. The finding highlights the influence of climatic variables on common cold and suggests that prioritizing control strategies for acute respiratory infection program to subdistricts and times of the year when climatic variables are associated with common cold may be an effective strategy.

Verifying the Theory of Climate Affecting Lethality of COVID-19 by an Analysis in Two Climatic Zones of Chile

Introduction:

The study of seasonal influences on the COVID-19 pandemic can take advantage of the unique position of Chile and its different climatic profiles in the north-south extension. The purpose is to verify the influence of seasonal climate changes on the COVID-19 in the temperate and sub-arctic areas of Chile.

Methods:

We monitored the evolution of CFR in temperate versus sub-boreal regions, reporting from the John Hopkins University COVID-19 Center on the CFR in each province in midwinter, spring, and early summer.

Results:

CFR worsened from mid-winter to mid-spring in the temperate zone of Chile, while in the sub-boreal area the CFR improves in the same period, (Kruskal Wallis Test, p=0.004). In the temperate zone after the increase in late winter-early spring, CRF tends to stabilize; on the contrary in the sub-boreal zone, there is a more marked tendency to worsen the CFR at the same time (Kruskal Wallis Test, p=0.010). The temperate zone of Chile shows a CFR increasing until spring-like temperate Europe, unlike Europe CFR does not decrease in summer, but the mean minimum temperature in temperate Chile is lower in summer than in temperate Europe. In Patagonian, CFR remains stable or drops from winter to spring but increases in early summer.

Conclusion:

The temperate and sub-boreal zones of Chile have a markedly different CFR variation profile during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infections and exposure in surfaces, points and wastewaters: A global one health perspective

The persistence of SARS-CoV-2 or its RNA on surfaces, points, or wastewaters may increase the risk of transmission of this virus. Therefore, we conducted this review to discuss the places and surfaces with the highest potential for infection and spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Several common and public areas, hospitals, elevators, public transport, local markets, and surfaces such as public toilets, door handles, untreated and treated wastewaters, wastewater plants, and public washrooms are also considered major points for spreading of SARS-CoV-2. Highly contaminated surfaces or places often have materials or contain items made of materials on which the SARS-CoV-2 virus can persist (e.g., metal, wood, and plastic). For example, SARS-CoV-2 can exist up to 4 days on doorknobs made by those materials. For public places such as public transports, elevators, and local markets, crowding and enclosed spaces are major source for transmission. Several measures such as using copper alloy surfaces instead of metal surfaces, disinfectants, and suitable personal protective equipment have been suggested. Our research could be the basis to help develop studies on the existence and transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 as well as its RNA to take measures to prevent and limit the harmful effects of COVID-19 pandemic.

Patient perceptions of vulnerability to recurrent respiratory tract infections and prevention strategies: a qualitative study

OBJECTIVES

Respiratory tract infections (RTIs) are extremely common, usually self-limiting, but responsible for considerable work sickness absence, reduced quality of life, inappropriate antibiotic prescribing and healthcare costs. Patients who experience recurrent RTIs and those with certain comorbid conditions have higher personal impact and healthcare costs and may be more likely to suffer disease exacerbations, hospitalisation and death. We explored how these patients experience and perceive their RTIs to understand how best to engage them in prevention behaviours.

DESIGN

A qualitative interview study.

SETTING

Primary care, UK.

METHODS

23 participants who reported recurrent RTIs and/or had relevant comorbid health conditions were interviewed about their experiences of RTIs. Interviews took place as the COVID-19 pandemic began. Data were analysed using inductive thematic analysis.

RESULTS

Three themes were developed: Understanding causes and vulnerability, Attempting to prevent RTIs, Uncertainty and ambivalence about prevention, along with an overarching theme; Changing experiences because of COVID-19. Participants' understandings of their susceptibility to RTIs were multifactorial and included both transmission via others and personal vulnerabilities. They engaged in various approaches to try to prevent infections or alter their progression yet perceived they had limited personal control. The COVID-19 pandemic had improved their understanding of transmission, heightened their concern and motivation to avoid RTIs and extended their repertoire of protective behaviours.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients who experience frequent or severe RTIs are likely to welcome and benefit from advice and support regarding RTI prevention. To engage people effectively, those developing interventions or delivering health services must consider their beliefs and concerns about susceptibility and prevention.

An active inference account of protective behaviours during the COVID-19 pandemic

Newly emerging infectious diseases, such as the coronavirus (COVID-19), create new challenges for public healthcare systems. Before effective treatments, countering the spread of these infections depends on mitigating, protective behaviours such as social distancing, respecting lockdown, wearing masks, frequent handwashing, travel restrictions, and vaccine acceptance. Previous work has shown that the enacting protective behaviours depends on beliefs about individual vulnerability, threat severity, and one’s ability to engage in such protective actions. However, little is known about the genesis of these beliefs in response to an infectious disease epidemic, and the cognitive mechanisms that may link these beliefs to decision making. Active inference (AI) is a recent approach to behavioural modelling that integrates embodied perception, action, belief updating, and decision making. This approach provides a framework to understand the behaviour of agents in situations that require planning under uncertainty. It assumes that the brain infers the hidden states that cause sensations, predicts the perceptual feedback produced by adaptive actions, and chooses actions that minimize expected surprise in the future. In this paper, we present a computational account describing how individuals update their beliefs about the risks and thereby commit to protective behaviours. We show how perceived risks, beliefs about future states, sensory uncertainty, and outcomes under each policy can determine individual protective behaviours. We suggest that these mechanisms are crucial to assess how individuals cope with uncertainty during a pandemic, and we show the interest of these new perspectives for public health policies.

Deprivation and exposure to public activities during the COVID-19 pandemic in England and Wales

Background

Differential exposure to public activities may contribute to stark deprivation-related inequalities in SARS-CoV-2 infection and outcomes but has not been directly investigated. We set out to investigate whether participants in Virus Watch—a large community cohort study based in England and Wales—reported differential exposure to public activities and non-household contacts during the autumn–winter phase of the COVID-19 pandemic according to postcode-level socioeconomic deprivation.

Methods

Participants (n=20 120–25 228 across surveys) reported their daily activities during 3 weekly periods in late November 2020, late December 2020 and mid-February 2021. Deprivation was quantified based on participants’ residential postcode using English or Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation quintiles. We used Poisson mixed-effect models with robust standard errors to estimate the relationship between deprivation and risk of exposure to public activities during each survey period.

Results

Relative to participants in the least deprived areas, participants in the most deprived areas exhibited elevated risk of exposure to vehicle sharing (adjusted risk ratio (aRR) range across time points: 1.73–8.52), public transport (aRR: 3.13–5.73), work or education outside of the household (aRR: 1.09–1.21), essential shops (aRR: 1.09–1.13) and non-household contacts (aRR: 1.15–1.19) across multiple survey periods.

Conclusion

Differential exposure to essential public activities—such as attending workplaces and visiting essential shops—is likely to contribute to inequalities in infection risk and outcomes. Public health interventions to reduce exposure during essential activities and financial and practical support to enable low-paid workers to stay at home during periods of intense transmission may reduce COVID-related inequalities.

Differences in Adolescents' Food Habits Checklist (AFHC) Scores before and during Pandemic in a Population-Based Sample: Polish Adolescents' COVID-19 Experience (PLACE-19) Study

The COVID-19 pandemic is known to influence the dietary habits of adults, but results for adolescents in studies are ambiguous. The present work aimed to analyze the differences in the scores of the Adolescents’ Food Habits Checklist (AFHC) before and during the pandemic in the Polish Adolescents’ COVID-19 Experience (PLACE-19) Study population. The PLACE-19 Study was conducted during the pandemic among a population of 2448 students recruited from secondary schools in all regions of Poland using a random quota sampling. The participants were required to complete an AFHC consisting of 23 items pertaining to food purchase, preparation, and consumption habits. Current habits (during the pandemic) and previous habits were assessed and scored separately. The total (p = 0.001), purchase (p < 0.001), and consumption scores (p = 0.014) indicated that the AFHC scores during the pandemic were higher than before. For questions on purchase habits, a lower number of respondents reported eating in a restaurant, eating takeaway meals, having lunch away from home, or buying pastries, cakes or crisps. For questions on preparation habits, an greater number of respondents reported that they usually avoided eating fried food and tried to keep their overall sugar intake down, but fewer respondents said they tried to have low-fat desserts. For questions on consumption habits, a lower number of respondents reported that they usually ate a dessert or pudding if one were available and a larger number said they made sure to eat at least one serving of vegetables or salad a day and at least three servings of fruit most days. Based on the obtained results, it may be stated that although there was an increase in the AFHC scores during the pandemic, a similar share of respondents showed improved or worsened food habits, and a similar share changed their food habits from healthy to unhealthy and from unhealthy to healthy. At the same time, a majority of changes were associated with purchase habits, which were probably forced by lockdowns and the resultant restrictions in eating out or grocery shopping.

COVID-19 early-alert signals using human behavior alternative data

Google searches create a window into population-wide thoughts and plans not just of individuals, but populations at large. Since the outbreak of COVID-19 and the non-pharmaceutical interventions introduced to contain it, searches for socially distanced activities have trended. We hypothesize that trends in the volume of search queries related to activities associated with COVID-19 transmission correlate with subsequent COVID-19 caseloads. We present a preliminary analytics framework that examines the relationship between Google search queries and the number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the United States. We designed an experimental tool with search volume indices to track interest in queries related to two themes: isolation and mobility. Our goal was to capture the underlying social dynamics of an unprecedented pandemic using alternative data sources that are new to epidemiology. Our results indicate that the net movement index we defined correlates with COVID-19 weekly new case growth rate with a lag of between 10 and 14 days for the United States at-large, as well as at the state level for 42 out of 50 states with the exception of 8 states (DE, IA, KS, NE, ND, SD, WV, WY) from March to June 2020. In addition, an increasing caseload was seen over the summer in some southern US states. A sharp rise in mobility indices was followed by a sharp increase, respectively, in the case growth data, as seen in our case study of Arizona, California, Florida, and Texas. A sharp decline in mobility indices is often followed by a sharp decline, respectively, in the case growth data, as seen in our case study of Arizona, California, Florida, Texas, and New York. The digital epidemiology framework presented here aims to discover predictors of the pandemic's curve, which could supplement traditional predictive models and inform early warning systems and public health policies.

COVID 19: challenges for virologists in the food industry

The COVID-19 pandemic is not only a challenge for public health and hospitals, but affects many aspects of our societies. This Lilliput minireview deals with problems that the pandemic causes for the food industry, addressing the presence and persistence of SARS-CoV-2 in the food environment, methods of virus inactivation and the protection of the food worker and the consumer. So far food has not been implicated in the transmission of the infection, but social disruptions caused by the pandemic could cause problems with food security.

The nature of cities and the Covid-19 pandemic

The virtual issue will only include the main essay.

Extensions and adaptations of existing medical information system in order to reduce social contacts during COVID-19 pandemic

OBJECTIVE

The main objective of this paper is the reduction of the COVID-19 pandemic spread by increasing the degree of social distancing by using and upgrading the existing Medical Information System (MIS).

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The existing MIS MEDIS.NET, currently used in the largest health center in the Balkans, has been adapted and further developed.

RESULTS

During the adaptation of existing MIS MEDIS.NET 4 new and 9 existing modules were developed. A quick questionnaire for the smart triage of patients was also implemented.

DISCUSSION

The adapted MIS successfully influenced the reduction of social contacts within the Health Center Nis. The need for the arrival of children and their parents to receive appropriate health certificates for the school enrolment is reduced. The therapy of chronic patients has been prolonged for 6 months via an electronic prescription. An online service for the communication between patients and the chosen physicians is provided. Possible social contacts and exposure to the viral environment of patients are reduced by making appointments in extended slots and at determined physical locations. Patients are notified per SMS or email about the availability of chosen and physician on duty. The social distancing of patients and physicians is also established by sending laboratory analyses per email or SMS. Keeping the central registry for COVID-19 is enabled throughout the country.

CONCLUSION

The smart adaptation of MIS, and its collaboration with other state systems can significantly influence the reduction of social contacts and thus mitigate the consequences of COVID-19 pandemic.

Household transmission of seasonal coronavirus infections: Results from the Flu Watch cohort study

Background: In the context of the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, understanding household transmission of seasonal coronaviruses may inform pandemic control. We aimed to investigate what proportion of seasonal coronavirus transmission occurred within households, measure the risk of transmission in households, and describe the impact of household-related factors of risk of transmission. Methods: Using data from three winter seasons of the UK Flu Watch cohort study, we measured the proportion of symptomatic infections acquired outside and within the home, the household transmission risk and the household secondary attack risk for PCR-confirmed seasonal coronaviruses. We present transmission risk stratified by demographic features of households. Results: We estimated that the proportion of cases acquired outside the home, weighted by age and region, was 90.7% (95% CI 84.6- 94.5, n=173/195) and within the home was 9.3% (5.5-15.4, 22/195). Following a symptomatic coronavirus index case, 14.9% (9.8 - 22.1, 20/134) of households experienced symptomatic transmission to at least one other household member. Onward transmission risk ranged from 11.90% (4.84-26.36, 5/42) to 19.44% (9.21-36.49, 7/36) by strain. The overall household secondary attack risk for symptomatic cases was 8.00% (5.31-11.88, 22/275), ranging across strains from 5.10 (2.11-11.84, 5/98) to 10.14 (4.82- 20.11, 7/69). Median clinical onset serial interval was 7 days (IQR= 6-9.5). Households including older adults, 3+ children, current smokers, contacts with chronic health conditions, and those in relatively deprived areas had the highest transmission risks. Child index cases and male index cases demonstrated the highest transmission risks. Conclusion: Most seasonal coronaviruses appear to be acquired outside the household, with relatively modest risk of onward transmission within households. Transmission risk following an index case appears to vary by demographic household features, with potential overlap between those demonstrating the highest point estimates for seasonal coronavirus transmission risk and COVID-19 susceptibility and poor illness outcomes.