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Weeda LJZ, Bradshaw CJA, Judge MA, Saraswati CM, Le Souëf PN. How climate change degrades child health: A systematic review and meta-analysis. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 920:170944. [PMID: 38360325 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170944] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/01/2023] [Revised: 02/08/2024] [Accepted: 02/11/2024] [Indexed: 02/17/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Children are more vulnerable than adults to climate-related health threats, but reviews examining how climate change affects human health have been mainly descriptive and lack an assessment of the magnitude of health effects children face. This is the first systematic review and meta-analysis that identifies which climate-health relationships pose the greatest threats to children. OBJECTIVES We reviewed epidemiologic studies to analyse various child health outcomes due to climate change and identify the relationships with the largest effect size. We identify population-specific risks and provide recommendations for future research. METHODS We searched four large online databases for observational studies published up to 5 January 2023 following PRISMA (systematic review) guidelines. We evaluated each included study individually and aggregated relevant quantitative data. We used quantitative data in our meta-analysis, where we standardised effect sizes and compared them among different groupings of climate variables and health outcomes. RESULTS Of 1301 articles we identified, 163 studies were eligible for analysis. We identified many relationships between climate change and child health, the strongest of which was increasing risk (60 % on average) of preterm birth from exposure to temperature extremes. Respiratory disease, mortality, and morbidity, among others, were also influenced by climate changes. The effects of different air pollutants on health outcomes were considerably smaller compared to temperature effects, but with most (16/20 = 80 %) pollutant studies indicating at least a weak effect. Most studies occurred in high-income regions, but we found no geographical clustering according to health outcome, climate variable, or magnitude of risk. The following factors were protective of climate-related child-health threats: (i) economic stability and strength, (ii) access to quality healthcare, (iii) adequate infrastructure, and (iv) food security. Threats to these services vary by local geographical, climate, and socio-economic conditions. Children will have increased prevalence of disease due to anthropogenic climate change, and our quantification of the impact of various aspects of climate change on child health can contribute to the planning of mitigation that will improve the health of current and future generations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lewis J Z Weeda
- School of Medicine, University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia, Australia.
| | - Corey J A Bradshaw
- Global Ecology | Partuyarta Ngadluku Wardli Kuu, College of Science and Engineering, Flinders University, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia; Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, EpicAustralia.org.au, Australia
| | - Melinda A Judge
- Telethon Kids Institute, Perth, Western Australia, Australia; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
| | | | - Peter N Le Souëf
- School of Medicine, University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia, Australia; Telethon Kids Institute, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
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Lo Y, Vosper E, Higgins JP, Howard G. Heat impacts on human health in the Western Pacific Region: an umbrella review. THE LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH. WESTERN PACIFIC 2024; 42:100952. [PMID: 38022710 PMCID: PMC10652124 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2023.100952] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/04/2023] [Revised: 10/13/2023] [Accepted: 10/18/2023] [Indexed: 12/01/2023]
Abstract
Background High temperatures and heatwaves are occurring more frequently and lasting longer because of climate change. A synthesis of existing evidence of heat-related health impacts in the Western Pacific Region (WPR) is lacking. This review addresses this gap. Methods The Scopus and PubMed databases were searched for reviews about heat impacts on mortality, cardiovascular morbidity, respiratory morbidity, dehydration and heat stroke, adverse birth outcomes, and sleep disturbance. The last search was conducted in February 2023 and only publications written in English were included. Primary studies and reviews that did not include specific WPR data were excluded. Data were extracted from 29 reviews. Findings There is strong evidence of heat-related mortality in the WPR, with the evidence concentrating on high-income countries and China. Associations between heat and cardiovascular or respiratory morbidity are not robust. There is evidence of heat-related dehydration and stroke, and preterm and still births in high-income countries in the WPR. Some evidence of sleep disturbance from heat is found for Australia, Japan and China. Interpretation Mortality is by far the most studied and robust health outcome of heat. Future research should focus on morbidity, and lower income countries in continental Asia and Pacific Island States, where there is little review-level evidence. Funding Funded by the World Health Organization WPR Office.
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Affiliation(s)
- Y.T.Eunice Lo
- Cabot Institute for the Environment, University of Bristol, UK
- Elizabeth Blackwell Institute for Health Research, University of Bristol, UK
| | - Emily Vosper
- Cabot Institute for the Environment, University of Bristol, UK
- School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, UK
| | - Julian P.T. Higgins
- Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, UK
- NIHR Applied Research Collaboration West (ARC West) at University Hospitals Bristol and Weston NHS Foundation Trust, Bristol, UK
| | - Guy Howard
- Cabot Institute for the Environment, University of Bristol, UK
- School of Civil, Aerospace and Design Engineering, University of Bristol, UK
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Rezaee R, Fathi S, Maleki A, Aboubakri O, Li G, Safari M, Sharafkhani R, Zarei M. Summer heat waves and their mortality risk over a 14-year period in a western region of Iran. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2023; 67:2081-2091. [PMID: 37845501 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-023-02564-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/27/2023] [Revised: 09/08/2023] [Accepted: 10/06/2023] [Indexed: 10/18/2023]
Abstract
Compared to previous decade, impact of heat waves (HWs) on mortality in recent years needs to be discussed in Iran. We investigated temporal change in added impact of summer HWs on mortality in eight cities of Iran. The pooled length of HWs was compared between 2015-2022 and 2008-2014 using random and fixed-effects of meta-analysis regression model. The temporal change in impact of HWs was evaluated through interaction effect between crossbasis function of HW and year in a two-stage time varying model. In order to pool the reduced coefficients of each period, multivariate meta-regression model, including city-specific temperature and temperature range as heterogenicity factors, was used. In addition to relative risk (RR), attributable fraction (AF) of HW in the two periods was also estimated in each city. In the last years, the frequency of all HWs was higher and the weak HWs were significantly longer. The only significant RR was related to the lowest and low severe HWs which was observed in the second period. In terms of AF, compared to the strong HWs, all weak HWs caused a considerable excess mortality in all cities and second period. The subgroup analysis revealed that the significant impact in the second period was mainly related to females and elderlies. The increased risk and AF due to more frequent and longer HWs (weak HWs) in the last years highlights the need for mitigation strategies in the region. Because of uncertainty in the results of severe HWs, further elaborately investigation of the HWs is need.
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Affiliation(s)
- Reza Rezaee
- Environmental Health Research Center, Research Institute for Health Development, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Iran
| | - Serveh Fathi
- Environmental Health Research Center, Research Institute for Health Development, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Iran
| | - Afshin Maleki
- Environmental Health Research Center, Research Institute for Health Development, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Iran
| | - Omid Aboubakri
- Environmental Health Research Center, Research Institute for Health Development, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Iran.
| | - Guoxing Li
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Health Sciences, Peking University, School of Public Health, Beijing, China
| | - Mahdi Safari
- Environmental Health Research Center, Research Institute for Health Development, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Iran
| | - Rahim Sharafkhani
- School of Public Health, Khoy University of Medical Sciences, Khoy, Iran
| | - Mozhdeh Zarei
- Department of Health in Emergencies and Disasters, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Deputy of Research and Technology, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Iran
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Yoo C, Im J, Weng Q, Cho D, Kang E, Shin Y. Diurnal urban heat risk assessment using extreme air temperatures and real-time population data in Seoul. iScience 2023; 26:108123. [PMID: 37876825 PMCID: PMC10590841 DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2023.108123] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/14/2023] [Revised: 09/05/2023] [Accepted: 09/29/2023] [Indexed: 10/26/2023] Open
Abstract
Previous heat risk assessments have limitations in obtaining accurate heat hazard sources and capturing population distributions, which change over time. This study proposes a diurnal heat risk assessment framework incorporating spatiotemporal air temperature and real-time population data. Daytime and nighttime heat risk maps were generated using hazard, exposure, and vulnerability components in Seoul during the summer of 2018. The hazard was derived from the daily extreme air temperatures obtained using the stacking machine learning model. Exposure was calculated using de facto population density, and vulnerability was assessed using demographic and socioeconomic indicators. The resulting maps revealed distinct diurnal spatial patterns, with high-risk areas in the urban core during the day and dispersed at night. Daytime heat risk was strongly correlated with heat-related illness ratios (R = 0.8) and accurately captured temporal fluctuations in heat-related illness incidence. The proposed framework can guide site-specific adaptation and response plans for dynamic urban heat events.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cheolhee Yoo
- JC STEM Lab of Earth Observations, Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Hong Kong
- Research Centre for Artificial Intelligence in Geomatics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Hong Kong
| | - Jungho Im
- Department of Civil, Urban, Earth, and Environmental Engineering, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology (UNIST), Ulsan, South Korea
| | - Qihao Weng
- JC STEM Lab of Earth Observations, Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Hong Kong
- Research Centre for Artificial Intelligence in Geomatics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Hong Kong
| | - Dongjin Cho
- Department of Civil, Urban, Earth, and Environmental Engineering, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology (UNIST), Ulsan, South Korea
| | - Eunjin Kang
- Department of Civil, Urban, Earth, and Environmental Engineering, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology (UNIST), Ulsan, South Korea
| | - Yeji Shin
- Department of Civil, Urban, Earth, and Environmental Engineering, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology (UNIST), Ulsan, South Korea
- Market Intelligence Team, Purchasing Strategy Unit, CJ CheilJedang Corporation, Market Intelligence Team, Seoul, South Korea
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Kim H, Park D, Seomun G, Kim H, Woosnam KM, Kim BJ. Health justice and economic segregation in climate risks: Tracing vulnerability and readiness progress. Health Place 2023; 84:103113. [PMID: 37717535 DOI: 10.1016/j.healthplace.2023.103113] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/09/2023] [Revised: 07/27/2023] [Accepted: 09/04/2023] [Indexed: 09/19/2023]
Abstract
Climate vulnerability can make urban space unhealthy and accentuate existing health (in)justice and (economic) segregation. Drawing on the vulnerability-readiness nexus and measuring health justice (i.e., health poverty, health distribution, and health access) and economic segregation (through indices), we strive to investigate the plausible pathways of the two constructs at the heat risks. Our work, focusing on metropolitan cities in South Korea, addresses the role of heat vulnerability and readiness nexus regarding health justice and economic segregation through correlational analysis and a time-trend comparative approach between 2011 and 2015 (as five year-long effects). Our results show that potential positive links exist between health poverty as a component of health justice and economic segregation. Moreover, climate readiness, as opposed to vulnerability, plays a crucial role in reducing economic segregation in the context of health justice and heat risks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hyun Kim
- School of Public Administration, Chungnam National University, Daejeon, South Korea.
| | - Dujin Park
- Department of Sociology, Chungnam National University, Daejeon, South Korea.
| | - Gyu Seomun
- Department of Environmental Planning, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea.
| | - Hyewon Kim
- School of Public Administration, Chungnam National University, Daejeon, South Korea.
| | - Kyle Maurice Woosnam
- Warnell School of Forestry & Natural Resources, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA; School of Tourism and Hospitality Management, University of Johannesburg, Auckland Park, South Africa.
| | - Bong Jik Kim
- Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Chungnam National University Sejong Hospital, College of Medicine, Chungnam National University, Daejeon, South Korea.
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6
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Nguyen CV, Nguyen MH, Nguyen TT. The impact of cold waves and heat waves on mortality: Evidence from a lower middle-income country. HEALTH ECONOMICS 2023; 32:1220-1243. [PMID: 36810920 DOI: 10.1002/hec.4663] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/13/2022] [Revised: 01/31/2023] [Accepted: 02/01/2023] [Indexed: 05/04/2023]
Abstract
We estimate the impact of temperature extremes on mortality in Vietnam, using daily data on temperatures and monthly data on mortality during the 2000-2018 period. We find that both cold and heat waves cause higher mortality, particularly among older people and those living in the hot regions in Southern Vietnam. This effect on mortality tends to be smaller in provinces with higher rates of air-conditioning and emigration, and provinces with higher public spending on health. Finally, we estimate economic cost of cold and heat waves using a framework of willingness to pay to avoid deaths, then project the cost to the year 2100 under different Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cuong Viet Nguyen
- International School, Vietnam National University, Hanoi, Vietnam
- Mekong Development Research Institute (MDRI), Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Manh-Hung Nguyen
- Toulouse School of Economics, INRAE, University of Toulouse Capitole, Toulouse, France
| | - Toan Truong Nguyen
- Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
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7
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Liu J, Dong H, Li M, Wu Y, Zhang C, Chen J, Yang Z, Lin G, Liu DL, Yang J. Projecting the excess mortality due to heatwave and its characteristics under climate change, population and adaptation scenarios. Int J Hyg Environ Health 2023; 250:114157. [PMID: 36989996 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijheh.2023.114157] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/10/2022] [Revised: 03/07/2023] [Accepted: 03/11/2023] [Indexed: 03/29/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Heatwaves have significant adverse effects on human health. The frequency, duration, and intensity of heatwaves are projected to increase dramatically, in the context of global warming. However, there are few comprehensive assessments of the health impact of heatwaves considering different definitions, and their characteristics under climate change scenarios. OBJECTIVE We aimed to compare future excess mortality related to heatwaves among different definitions under climate change, population, and adaptation scenarios in China and further explore the mortality burden associated with heatwave characteristics. METHODS Daily data during 2010-2019 were collected in Guangzhou, China. We adopted nine common heatwave definitions and applied quasi-Poisson models to estimate the effects of heatwaves and their characteristics' impact on mortality. We then projected the excess mortality associated with heatwaves and their characteristics concerning climate change, population, and adaptation scenarios. RESULTS The relative risks of the nine common heatwave definitions ranged from 1.05 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.10) to 1.24 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.35). Heatwave-related excess mortality will consistently increase in the future decades considering multiple heatwave definitions, with more rapidly increasing rates under the Shared Socioeconomic Path5-8.5 and non-adaptability scenarios. Regarding heatwave characteristics, the intensity is the main factor involved in the threat of heatwaves. The increasing trend of characteristic-related mortality burden is similar to that of heatwaves, and the mortality burden caused by the duration of the heatwaves was the largest among all characteristics. CONCLUSIONS This study provides a comprehensive picture of the impact of heatwaves and their characteristics on public health under various climate change scenarios, population changes, and adaptive assumptions. The results may provide important public health implications for policymakers in planning climate change adaptation and mitigation policies, and implementing specific plans.
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8
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Ho JY, Shi Y, Lau KKL, Ng EYY, Ren C, Goggins WB. Urban heat island effect-related mortality under extreme heat and non-extreme heat scenarios: A 2010-2019 case study in Hong Kong. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 858:159791. [PMID: 36328261 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159791] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/04/2022] [Revised: 10/02/2022] [Accepted: 10/24/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
The urban heat island (UHI) effect exacerbates the adverse impact of heat on human health. However, while the UHI effect is further intensified during extreme heat events, prior studies have rarely mapped the UHI effect during extreme heat events to assess its direct temperature impact on mortality. This study examined the UHI effect during extreme heat and non-extreme heat scenarios and compared their temperature-mortality associations in Hong Kong from 2010 to 2019. Four urban heat island degree hour (UHIdh) scenarios were mapped onto Hong Kong's tertiary planning units and classified into three levels (Low, Moderate, and High). We assessed the association between temperature and non-external mortality of populations living in each UHIdh level for the extreme heat/non-extreme heat scenarios during the 2010-2019 hot seasons. Our results showed substantial differences between the temperature-mortality associations in the three levels under the UHIdh extreme heat scenario (UHIdh_EH). While there was no evidence of increased mortality in Low UHIdh_EH areas, the mortality risk in Moderate and High UHIdh_EH areas were significantly increased during periods of hot temperature, with the High UHIdh_EH areas displaying almost double the risk (RR: 1.08, 95%CI: 1.03, 1.14 vs. RR: 1.05, 95 % CI: 1.01, 1.09). However, other non-extreme heat UHI scenarios did not demonstrate as prominent of a difference. When stratified by age, the heat effects were found in Moderate and High UHIdh_EH among the elderly aged 75 and above. Our study found a difference in the temperature-mortality associations based on UHI intensity and potential heat vulnerability of populations during extreme heat events. Preventive measures should be taken to mitigate heat especially in urban areas with high UHI intensity during extreme heat events, with particular attention and support for those prone to heat vulnerability, such as the elderly and poorer populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Janice Y Ho
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Yuan Shi
- Institute of Future Cities, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; Department of Geography and Planning, School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | - Kevin K L Lau
- Institute of Future Cities, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; Department of Civil, Environmental and Natural Resources Engineering, Luleå University of Technology, Sweden
| | - Edward Y Y Ng
- Institute of Future Cities, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; School of Architecture, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Chao Ren
- Division of Landscape Architecture, Department of Architecture, Faculty of Architecture, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
| | - William B Goggins
- Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
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Chung CY, Yang J, Yang X, He J. A novel mathematical model for estimating the relative risk of mortality attributable to the combined effect of ambient fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) and cold ambient temperature. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 858:159634. [PMID: 36280065 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159634] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/22/2022] [Revised: 10/17/2022] [Accepted: 10/18/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Exposures to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and cold ambient temperatures have been identified as important risk factors in contributing towards the global mortality from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Despite China currently being the country with the largest population in the world, previous relative risk (RR) models have considered little or no information from the ambient air pollution related cohort studies in the country. This likely provides a less accurate picture of the trend in air pollution attributable mortality in the country over time. A novel relative risk model called pollutant-temperature exposure (PTE) model is proposed to estimate the RR attributable to the combined effect of air pollution and ambient temperature in a population. In this paper, the pollutant concentration-response curve was extrapolated from the cohort studies in China, whereas the temperature response curve was extracted from a study in Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region. The performance of the PTE model was compared with the integrated exposure-response (IER) model using the data of YRD region, which revealed that the estimated relative risks of the PTE model were noticeably higher than the IER model during the winter season. Furthermore, the predictive ability of the PTE model was validated using actual data of Ningbo city, which showed that the estimated RR using the PTE model with 1-month moving average data showed a good result with the trend of actual COPD mortality, indicated by a lower root mean square error (RMSE = 0.956). By considering the combined effect of ambient air pollutant and ambient temperature, the PTE model is expected to provide more accurate relative risk estimates for the regions with high levels of ambient PM2.5 and seasonal variation of ambient temperature.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chee Yap Chung
- Department of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, University of Nottingham Ningbo China, Ningbo 315100, PR China
| | - Jie Yang
- Department of Mathematics, University of Hull, Hull HU6 7RX, UK
| | - Xiaogang Yang
- Department of Mechanical, Materials and Manufacturing Engineering, University of Nottingham Ningbo China, Ningbo 315100, PR China.
| | - Jun He
- Department of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, University of Nottingham Ningbo China, Ningbo 315100, PR China
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Yan M, Xie Y, Zhu H, Ban J, Gong J, Li T. Cardiovascular mortality risks during the 2017 exceptional heatwaves in China. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2023; 172:107767. [PMID: 36716635 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2023.107767] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/12/2022] [Revised: 12/11/2022] [Accepted: 01/18/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Climate change has made disastrous heatwaves more frequent. Heatwave-related health impacts are much more devastating for more intense heatwaves. In the summer of 2017, exceptional heatwaves occurred in many regions, including China. This study aims to evaluate the cardiovascular mortality risk associated with the 2017 exceptional heatwaves and compare the mortality risk of the severe heatwaves with those in other years. Using daily data for a spectrum of cardiovascular mortality and temperature for 102 Chinese counties (2014-2017), we estimated the association between heatwave and mortality by generalized linear mixed-effects models. Compared with matched non-heatwave days, mortality risks on heatwaves days in 2017 increased 27.8% (95% CI, 14.8-42.3%), 26.7% (8.0-48.5%), 30.1% (10.2-53.7%), 27.3% (1.4-59.9%), 32.2% (3.4-68.4%), and 25.2% (1.0-57.7%) for total circulatory diseases, cerebrovascular disease, ischemic heart disease (IHD), acute IHD, chronic IHD, and myocardial infarction. The 2017 exceptional heatwaves impacted ischemic heart disease mortality and myocardial infarction mortality more than heatwaves in 2014-2016. Here we show that the severe heatwaves in 2017 posed catastrophic death threats for those under-studied cardiovascular diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Meilin Yan
- School of Ecology and Environment, Beijing Technology and Business University, Beijing, China
| | - Yang Xie
- School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing, China; Future Cities Lab, Beihang University, China
| | - Huanhuan Zhu
- China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Jie Ban
- China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Jicheng Gong
- Beijing Innovation Center for Engineering Science and Advanced Technology and State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Tiantian Li
- China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
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Aghababaeian H, Ostadtaghizadeh A, Ardalan A, Asgary A, Akbary M, Yekaninejad MS, Sharafkhani R, Stephens C. Mortality Risk Related to Heatwaves in Dezful City, Southwest of Iran. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH INSIGHTS 2023; 17:11786302231151538. [PMID: 36762075 PMCID: PMC9903032 DOI: 10.1177/11786302231151538] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/11/2022] [Accepted: 01/02/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND We aimed to evaluate the impact of heatwaves on daily deaths due to non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory causes in the city of Dezful in Iran from 2013 to 2019. METHOD We collected daily ambient temperature and mortality and defined 2 types of heatwaves by combining daily temperature ⩾90th in each month of the study period or since 30 years with duration ⩾2 and 3 days. We used a distributed lag non-linear model to study the association between each type of heatwave definition, and deaths due to non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory causes with lags up to 13 days. RESULTS There was no discernible correlation in this area, despite the fact that heatwaves raised the risk of death from cardiovascular causes and lowered the risk from respiratory causes. On the other hand, the risk of total non-accidental mortality on days with the heatwaves is significantly higher than normal days. In main effects, the heatwaves have a significant relationship with the risk of total non-accidental mortality (in the first heatwave definition, Cumulative Excess Risk (CER) in lag0-2 was 10.4 and in second heatwave definition, CER values in lag0, 0-2, and 0-6 were 12.4, 29.2, and 38.8 respectively). Also, in added effects, heatwaves have a significant relationship with the risk of total non-accidental mortality (in the first heatwave definition, CER in lag0 and 0-2 were 1.79 and 4.11 and in the second heatwave definition, CER values in lag0, 0-2, and 0-6 were 7.76, 18.35 and 24.87 respectively). In addition, heatwaves appeared to contribute to a cumulative excess risk of non-accidental death among the male group as well as the older adults. CONCLUSION However, the results showed that heatwaves could have detrimental effects on health, even in populations accustomed to the extreme heat. Therefore, early warning systems which monitor heatwaves should provide the necessary warnings to the population, especially the most vulnerable groups.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hamidreza Aghababaeian
- Center for Climate Change and Health research (CCCHR), Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran
- Department of Health in Emergencies and Disasters, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Abbas Ostadtaghizadeh
- Department of Health in Emergencies and Disasters, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Center for Air Pollution Research (CAPR), Institute for Environmental Research (IER), Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Ali Ardalan
- Department of Health in Emergencies and Disasters, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Ali Asgary
- Disaster and Emergency Management, School of Administrative Studies, York University, Toronto, Canada
| | - Mehry Akbary
- Department of Climatology, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
| | - Mir Saeed Yekaninejad
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Rahim Sharafkhani
- School of Public Health, Khoy University of Medical Sciences, Khoy, Iran
| | - Carolyn Stephens
- UCL Bartlett Development Planning Unit, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
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Rahman MM, McConnell R, Schlaerth H, Ko J, Silva S, Lurmann FW, Palinkas L, Johnston J, Hurlburt M, Yin H, Ban-Weiss G, Garcia E. The Effects of Coexposure to Extremes of Heat and Particulate Air Pollution on Mortality in California: Implications for Climate Change. Am J Respir Crit Care Med 2022; 206:1117-1127. [PMID: 35727303 PMCID: PMC9704834 DOI: 10.1164/rccm.202204-0657oc] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/05/2022] [Accepted: 06/21/2022] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Rationale: Extremes of heat and particulate air pollution threaten human health and are becoming more frequent because of climate change. Understanding the health impacts of coexposure to extreme heat and air pollution is urgent. Objectives: To estimate the association of acute coexposure to extreme heat and ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) with all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality in California from 2014 to 2019. Methods: We used a case-crossover study design with time-stratified matching using conditional logistic regression to estimate mortality associations with acute coexposures to extreme heat and PM2.5. For each case day (date of death) and its control days, daily average PM2.5 and maximum and minimum temperatures were assigned (0- to 3-day lag) on the basis of the decedent's residence census tract. Measurements and Main Results: All-cause mortality risk increased 6.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.1-8.1) on extreme maximum temperature-only days and 5.0% (95% CI, 3.0-8.0) on extreme PM2.5-only days, compared with nonextreme days. Risk increased by 21.0% (95% CI, 6.6-37.3) on days with exposure to both extreme maximum temperature and PM2.5. Increased risk of cardiovascular and respiratory mortality on extreme coexposure days was 29.9% (95% CI, 3.3-63.3) and 38.0% (95% CI, -12.5 to 117.7), respectively, and were more than the sum of individual effects of extreme temperature and PM2.5 only. A similar pattern was observed for coexposure to extreme PM2.5 and minimum temperature. Effect estimates were larger over age 75 years. Conclusions: Short-term exposure to extreme heat and air pollution alone were individually associated with increased risk of mortality, but their coexposure had larger effects beyond the sum of their individual effects.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Rob McConnell
- Department of Population and Public Health Sciences, Keck School of Medicine
| | - Hannah Schlaerth
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Viterbi School of Engineering
| | - Joseph Ko
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Viterbi School of Engineering
| | | | | | - Lawrence Palinkas
- Department of Population and Public Health Sciences, Keck School of Medicine
- Suzanne Dworak Peck School of Social Work, and
| | - Jill Johnston
- Department of Population and Public Health Sciences, Keck School of Medicine
| | - Michael Hurlburt
- Department of Population and Public Health Sciences, Keck School of Medicine
- Suzanne Dworak Peck School of Social Work, and
| | - Hao Yin
- Department of Economics, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California
- School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - George Ban-Weiss
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Viterbi School of Engineering
| | - Erika Garcia
- Department of Population and Public Health Sciences, Keck School of Medicine
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Abstract
This paper describes a new approach in urban ecological design, referred to as social–ecological urbanism (SEU). It draws from research in resilience thinking and space syntax in the analysis of relationships between urban processes and urban form at the microlevel of cities, where social and ecological services are directly experienced by urban dwellers. The paper elaborates on three types of media for urban designers to intervene in urban systems, including urban form, institutions, and discourse, that together function as a significant enabler of urban change. The paper ends by presenting four future research frontiers with a potential to advance the field of social–ecological urbanism: (1) urban density and critical biodiversity thresholds, (2) human and non-human movement in urban space, (3) the retrofitting of urban design, and (4) reversing the trend of urban ecological illiteracy through affordance designs that connect people with nature and with each other.
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Thermal Conditions and Hospital Admissions: Analysis of Longitudinal Data from Cyprus (2009-2018). INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2021; 18:ijerph182413361. [PMID: 34948967 PMCID: PMC8702178 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph182413361] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/11/2021] [Revised: 12/14/2021] [Accepted: 12/15/2021] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
The state of the thermal environment can affect human health and well-being. Heat stress is associated with a wide range of health outcomes increasing morbidity and mortality and is recognized as an important health risk posed by climate change. This study aims at examining the effect of thermal conditions on the daily number of hospital admissions in Cyprus. Data from eight public hospitals located in five districts of Cyprus were analyzed from 2009 to 2018. Meteorological hourly gridded data were extracted by the ERA-5 Land reanalysis database with a spatial horizontal resolution of 0.1° × 0.1°. The Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) and the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) were calculated as measures of the integrated effect of meteorological variables. Negative binomial regression was fitted to examine associations between the daily number of hospital admissions and meteorological variables, PET, and UTCI. The results showed that the mean daily temperature (Tair) was positively associated with hospital admissions from any cause. Hospital admissions increased by 0.6% (p < 0.001) for each 1 °C increase of Tair and by 0.4% (p < 0.001) for each 1 °C increase of PET and UTCI. Ozone and nitrogen oxides act as confounding factors. An effect of particulate matter (less than 10 μm in diameter) was observed when the analysis focused on April to August. Thresholds above which hospital admissions are likely to increase include daily mean Tair = 26.1 °C, PET = 29 °C, and UTCI = 26 °C. Studies on heat-related health effects are necessary to monitor health patterns, raise awareness, and design adaptation and mitigation measures.
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Tang C, Ji Y, Li Q, Yao Z, Cheng J, He Y, Liu X, Pan R, Wei Q, Yi W, Su H. Effects of different heat exposure patterns (accumulated and transient) and schizophrenia hospitalizations: a time-series analysis on hourly temperature basis. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2021; 28:69160-69170. [PMID: 34286435 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-021-15371-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/21/2021] [Accepted: 07/06/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Growing studies have shown that high temperature is a potential risk factor of schizophrenia occurrence. Therefore, elaborate analysis of different temperature exposure patterns, such as cumulative heat exposure within a time period and transient exposure at a particular time point, is of important public health significance. This study aims to utilize hourly temperature data to better capture the effects of cumulative and transient heat exposures on schizophrenia during the warm season in Hefei, China. We included the daily mean temperature and daily schizophrenia hospitalizations into the distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) to simulate the exposure-response curve and determine the heat threshold (19.4 °C). We calculated and applied a novel indicator-daily excess hourly heat (DEHH)-to examine the effects of cumulative heat exposure over a day on schizophrenia hospitalizations. Temperature measurements at each time point were also incorporated in the DLNM as independent exposure indicators to analyze the impact of transient heat exposure on schizophrenia. Each increment of interquartile range (IQR) in DEHH was associated with elevated risk of schizophrenia hospitalizations from lag 1 (RR = 1.036, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.016, 1.057) to lag 4 (RR = 1.025, 95% CI: 1.005, 1.046). Men and people over 40 years old were more susceptible to DEHH. Besides, we found a greater risk of heat-related schizophrenia hospitalizations between 0 a.m. and 6 a.m. This study revealed the adverse effects of accumulated and transient heat exposures on schizophrenia hospitalizations. Our findings need to be further tested in other regions with distinct regional features.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chao Tang
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
- Anhui Provincial Laboratory of Inflammatory and Immune Diseases, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Yifu Ji
- Anhui Mental Health Center, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Qingru Li
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
- Anhui Provincial Laboratory of Inflammatory and Immune Diseases, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Zhenhai Yao
- Anhui Public Meteorological Service Center, Hefei, 230011, Anhui, China
| | - Jian Cheng
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
- Anhui Provincial Laboratory of Inflammatory and Immune Diseases, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Yangyang He
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
- Anhui Provincial Laboratory of Inflammatory and Immune Diseases, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Xiangguo Liu
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
- Anhui Provincial Laboratory of Inflammatory and Immune Diseases, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Rubing Pan
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
- Anhui Provincial Laboratory of Inflammatory and Immune Diseases, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Qiannan Wei
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
- Anhui Provincial Laboratory of Inflammatory and Immune Diseases, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Weizhuo Yi
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
- Anhui Provincial Laboratory of Inflammatory and Immune Diseases, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China
| | - Hong Su
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China.
- Anhui Provincial Laboratory of Inflammatory and Immune Diseases, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China.
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Vecellio DJ, Bardenhagen EK, Lerman B, Brown RD. The role of outdoor microclimatic features at long-term care facilities in advancing the health of its residents: An integrative review and future strategies. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2021; 201:111583. [PMID: 34192557 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.111583] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/10/2020] [Revised: 05/18/2021] [Accepted: 06/21/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Projections show that Earth's climate will continue to warm concurrent with increases in the percentage of the world's elderly population. With an understanding that the body's resilience to the heat degrades as it ages, these coupled phenomena point to serious concerns of heat-related mortality in growing elderly populations. As many of the people in this age cohort choose to live in managed long-term care facilities, it's imperative that outdoor spaces of these communities be made thermally comfortable so that connections with nature and the promotion of non-sedentary activities are maintained. Studies have shown that simply being outside has a positive impact on a broad range of the psychosocial well-being of older adults. However, these spaces must be designed to afford accessibility, safety, and aesthetically pleasing experiences so that they are taken full advantage of. Here, we employ an integrative review to link ideas from the disciplines of climate science, health and physiology, and landscape architecture to explain the connections between heat, increased morbidity and mortality in aging adults, existing gaps in thermal comfort models, and key strategies in the development of useable, comfortable outdoor spaces for older adults. Integrative reviews allow for new frameworks or perspectives on a subject to be introduced. Uncovering the synergy of these three knowledge bases can contribute to guiding microclimatic research, design practitioners, and care providers as they seek safe, comfortable and inviting outdoor spaces for aging adults.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel J Vecellio
- Climate Science Lab, Department of Geography, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA.
| | - Eric K Bardenhagen
- Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, University of Delaware, Newark, DE, USA; Center for Health Systems & Design, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA
| | - Ben Lerman
- Department of Biological Sciences, Hunter College of the City University of New York, New York, NY, USA
| | - Robert D Brown
- Department of Landscape Architecture and Urban Planning, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA; Center for Health Systems & Design, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA
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Kollanus V, Tiittanen P, Lanki T. Mortality risk related to heatwaves in Finland - Factors affecting vulnerability. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2021; 201:111503. [PMID: 34144011 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.111503] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/14/2021] [Revised: 05/28/2021] [Accepted: 06/07/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Heatwaves are known to increase mortality. However, there is a need for more quantitative information on factors affecting sensitivity to the adverse health effects, particularly in countries with cool summer temperatures. OBJECTIVES We evaluated mortality risk related to heatwave days in Finland. Risk was examined by age, sex, cause of death, and place of death, including health and social care facilities and homes. Mortality was also analysed for different patient subgroups in healthcare facilities. METHODS Heatwaves were defined as periods when the daily average temperature exceeded the 90th percentile of that from May to August in 2000-2014 for ≥4 days. In addition to all heatwave days, risk was analysed for short (4-5 days) and long (≥10 days) heatwaves. Mortality analyses were based on linking registry data on i) daily non-accidental and cause-specific mortality and ii) admissions to a health or social care facility. Statistical analyses were conducted using generalised estimating equations for longitudinal data analysis, assuming a Poisson distribution for the daily mortality count. RESULTS During all heatwave days, mortality increased among those aged 65-74 years (6.7%, 95% confidence interval 2.9-10.8%) and ≥75 years (12.8%, 95% CI 9.8-15.9%). Mortality increased in both sexes, but the risk was higher in women. Positive associations were observed for deaths due to respiratory diseases, renal diseases, mental and behavioural disorders, diseases of the nervous system, and cardiovascular diseases. Overall, effects were stronger for long than short heatwaves. During all heatwave days, mortality increased in healthcare facilities in outpatients (26.9%, 95% CI 17.3-37.2%) and inpatients. Among inpatients, the risk was higher in long-term inpatients (stay in ward > 30 days, 13.1%, 95% CI 8.6-17.7%) than others (5.8%, 95% CI 2.7-9.0%). At homes, mortality increased by 8.1% (95% CI 1.9-14.6%). Elevated risk estimates were also detected for social care facilities. CONCLUSIONS In Finland, a cold-climate Northern country, heatwaves increase mortality risk significantly among the elderly. Women are more susceptible than men, and many chronic diseases are important risk factors. To reduce heatwave-related deaths, preparedness should be improved particularly in hospital and healthcare centre wards, where the most vulnerable are long-term inpatients. However, measures are also needed to protect the elderly at home and in social care facilities, especially during prolonged hot periods.
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Affiliation(s)
- Virpi Kollanus
- Unit of Environmental Health, Department of Health Security, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, P.O. Box 95, FI-70701, Kuopio, Finland.
| | - Pekka Tiittanen
- Unit of Environmental Health, Department of Health Security, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, P.O. Box 95, FI-70701, Kuopio, Finland.
| | - Timo Lanki
- Unit of Environmental Health, Department of Health Security, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, P.O. Box 95, FI-70701, Kuopio, Finland; School of Medicine, University of Eastern Finland, P.O. Box 1627, FI-70211, Kuopio, Finland; Department of Environmental and Biological Sciences, University of Eastern, P.O. Box 1627, FI-70211, Kuopio, Finland.
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18
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Rathi SK, Sodani PR. Summer temperature and all-cause mortality from 2006 to 2015 for Hyderabad, India. Afr Health Sci 2021; 21:1474-1481. [PMID: 35222613 PMCID: PMC8843295 DOI: 10.4314/ahs.v21i3.59] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Studies have documented a significant association between temperature and all-cause mortality for various cities but such data are unavailable for Hyderabad City. OBJECTIVE The objective of this work was to assess the association between the extreme heat and all-cause mortality for summer months (March to June) from 2006 to 2015 for Hyderabad city population. METHODS We obtained the data on temperature and all-cause mortality for at least ten years for summer months. Descriptive and Bivariate analysis were conducted. Pearson correlation coefficient was used to study the relationship between heat and all-cause mortality for lag time effect. RESULTS A total of 122,117 deaths for 1,220 summer days (2006 to 2015) were analyzed with mean daily all-cause mortality was 100.1±21.5. There is an increase of 16% and 17% per day mean all-cause mortality at the maximum temperature of ≥40°C and for extreme danger days (Heat Index >54°C) respectively. The mean daily all-cause mortality shows a significant association with maximum temperature (P < 0.001) and Heat Index from caution to extreme danger risk days (P < 0.0183). The lag effect of extreme heat on all-cause mortality for the study period (2006 to 2015) was at peak on same day of the maximum temperature (r = 0.273 at p<0.01). CONCLUSION The study concludes that the impact of ambient heat in the rise of all-cause mortality is clearly evident (16% mean deaths/day). There was no lag effect from the effect of extreme heat on all-cause mortality as the peak period was the same as the maximum temperature. Hence heat action plans are needed. However, extreme heat-related mortality merits further analysis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Suresh K Rathi
- IIHMR University, Jaipur & MAMTA Health Institute for Mother and Child, New Delhi - 110048.
| | - Prahlad R Sodani
- President, IIHMR University 1, Prabhu Dayal Marg, Near Sanganer Airport, Jaipur - 302029.
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Sun Z, Chen C, Yan M, Shi W, Wang J, Ban J, Sun Q, He MZ, Li T. Heat wave characteristics, mortality and effect modification by temperature zones: a time-series study in 130 counties of China. Int J Epidemiol 2021; 49:1813-1822. [PMID: 32710100 DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyaa104] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 05/14/2020] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The substantial disease burden attributed to heat waves, and their increasing frequency and intensity due to climate change, highlight the importance of understanding the health consequences of heat waves. We explore the mortality risk due to heat wave characteristics, including the timing in the seasons, the day of the heat wave, the intensity and the duration, and the modifying effect of temperature zones. METHODS Heat waves were defined as ≥ 2 days with a temperature ≥99th percentile for the county from 1 May through 30 September. Heat waves were characterized by their intensity, duration, timing in the season, and day of the heat wave. Within each county, we estimated the total non-accidental death and cardiovascular disease mortality during each heat wave compared with non-heat wave days by controlling for potential confounders in summer. We combined individual heat wave effect estimates using a random-effects model to calculate overall effects at the temperature zone and national levels. RESULTS The average daily total number of non-accidental deaths was nine in the warm season (across all the counties). Approximately half of the daily total number of non-accidental deaths were cardiovascular-related deaths (approximately four persons per day). The average and maximum temperatures across the study area were 23.1 °C (range: -1.2-35.9 °C) and 28.3 °C (range: 5.4-42.8 °C), respectively. The average relative humidity during the study was 68.9% (range: 8.0-100.0%). Heat waves increase the risk of total non-accidental death by 15.7% [95% confidence interval (CI): 12.5, 18.9] compared with non-heat wave periods, and the risk of cardiovascular-related death increases by 22.0% (95% CI: 16.9, 27.4). The risk of non-accidental death during the first heat wave of the season increases by 16.3% (95% CI: 12.6, 20.2), the risk during the second heat wave increases by 6.3% (95% CI: 2.8, 9.9) and during subsequent heat waves increases by -2.1% (95% CI: -4.6, 0.4). The first day and the second to third days of heat waves increase the risk of total non-accidental death by 11.7% (95% CI: 7.6, 15.9) and 17.0% (95% CI: 13.1, 21.0), respectively. Effects of heat waves on mortality lasted more than 4 days (6.3%, 95% CI: 2.4, 10.5) and are non-significantly different from the first day of heat waves. We found non-significant differences of the heat wave-associated mortality risks across mid-, warm and subtropical temperature zones. CONCLUSIONS In China, the effect of heat waves on mortality is acute, and varies by certain characteristics of heat waves. Given these results, national heat wave early warning systems should be developed, as well as precautions and protection warranted according to characteristics of heat waves.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhiying Sun
- China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Chen Chen
- China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Meilin Yan
- Department of Environmental and Radiological Health Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA.,Beijing Innovation Center for Engineering Science and Advanced Technology and State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Wanying Shi
- China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Jiaonan Wang
- China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Jie Ban
- China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Qinghua Sun
- China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Mike Z He
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, New York, NY, USA
| | - Tiantian Li
- China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
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Rathi SK, Sodani PR, Joshi S. Summer Temperature and All-cause Mortality from 2006 to 2015 for Smart City Jaipur, India. JOURNAL OF HEALTH MANAGEMENT 2021. [DOI: 10.1177/09720634211011693] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
A considerable association between temperature and all-cause mortality has been documented in various studies. Further insights can be obtained from studying the impact of temperature and heat index (HI) for Jaipur city’s all-cause mortality. The objective of this work was to assess the association between the extreme heat (daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, daily mean temperature, relative humidity and HI) and all-cause mortality for summer months (March to June) from 2006 to 2015 for urban population of Jaipur. For summer months, we collected the data on various temperature and all-cause mortality parameters for at least 10 years. The student’s t-test and ANOVA were used to analyse variations in mean temperature, maximum temperature and HI. The Pearson correlation coefficient was used to study the relationship between ambient heat and lag time effect all-cause mortality. A total of 75,571 deaths (all-cause mortality) for 1,203 summer days (2006–2015) were analysed in relation to temperature and relative humidity. The mean daily all-cause mortality has been estimated at 62.8 ± 15.2 for the study period. There is a significant increase of 39% per day all-cause mortality at the maximum temperature of 45 °C and above. However only 10% rise per day all-cause mortality for extreme danger days (HI > 54 °C). The mean daily all-cause mortality shows a significant association with daily maximum temperature ( F = 34.6, P < .0001) and HI (discomfort index) from caution to extreme danger risk days ( F = 5.0, P < .0019). The lag effect of extreme heat on all-cause mortality for the study period (2006 to 2015) was at a peak period on the same day of the maximum temperature ( r = 0.245 at P < .01) but continues up to four days. The study concludes that the effect of ambient heat on all-cause mortality increase is clearly evident (rise of 39% deaths/day). Accordingly, focus should be put on developing adaptation measures against ambient heat. This analysis may satisfy policy makers’ needs. Extreme heat-related mortality needs further study to reduce adverse effects on health among Jaipur’s urban population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Suresh K. Rathi
- PhD Scholar, IIHMR University, Jaipur, India
- Indian Institute of Public Health, Hyderabad, India
| | | | - Suresh Joshi
- Former Professor, IIHMR University, Jaipur, India
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Faye M, Dème A, Diongue AK, Diouf I. Impact of different heat wave definitions on daily mortality in Bandafassi, Senegal. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0249199. [PMID: 33819272 PMCID: PMC8021182 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0249199] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/05/2020] [Accepted: 03/12/2021] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Objective The aim of this study is to find the most suitable heat wave definition among 15 different ones and to evaluate its impact on total, age-, and gender-specific mortality for Bandafassi, Senegal. Methods Daily weather station data were obtained from Kedougou situated at 17 km from Bandafassi from 1973 to 2012. Poisson generalized additive model (GAM) and distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) are used to investigate the effect of heat wave on mortality and to evaluate the nonlinear association of heat wave definitions at different lag days, respectively. Results Heat wave definitions, based on three or more consecutive days with both daily minimum and maximum temperatures greater than the 90th percentile, provided the best model fit. A statistically significant increase in the relative risk (RRs 1.4 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.2–1.6), 1.7 (95% CI: 1.5–1.9), 1.21 (95% CI: 1.08–1.3), 1.2 (95% CI: 1.04–1.5), 1.5 (95% CI: 1.3–1.8), 1.4 (95% CI: 1.2–1.5), 1.5 (95% CI: 1.07–1.6), and 1.5 (95% CI: 1.3–1.8)) of total mortality was observed for eight definitions. By using the definition based on the 90th percentile of minimum and maximum temperature with a 3-day duration, we also found that females and people aged ≥ 55 years old were at higher risks than males and other different age groups to heat wave related mortality. Conclusion The impact of heat waves was associated with total-, age-, gender-mortality. These results are expected to be useful for decision makers who conceive of public health policies in Senegal and elsewhere. Climate parameters, including temperatures and humidity, could be used to forecast heat wave risks as an early warning system in the area where we conduct this research. More broadly, our findings should be highly beneficial to climate services, researchers, clinicians, end-users and decision-makers.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mbaye Faye
- LERSTAD—UFR Sciences Appliquées et de Technologies, Université Gaston Berger de Saint-Louis, Saint-Louis, Sénégal
- * E-mail:
| | - Abdoulaye Dème
- LSAO—UFR Sciences Appliquées et de Technologies, Université Gaston Berger de Saint-Louis, Saint-Louis, Sénégal
| | - Abdou Kâ Diongue
- LERSTAD—UFR Sciences Appliquées et de Technologies, Université Gaston Berger de Saint-Louis, Saint-Louis, Sénégal
| | - Ibrahima Diouf
- NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction Climate Prediction Center College Park, Maryland, United States of America
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Kang Y, Tang H, Jiang L, Wang S, Wang X, Chen Z, Zhang L, Zheng C, Wang Z, Huang G, Gao R. Air temperature variability and high-sensitivity C reactive protein in a general population of China. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 749:141588. [PMID: 32846352 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141588] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/27/2020] [Revised: 07/10/2020] [Accepted: 08/07/2020] [Indexed: 05/09/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Along with global climate change, the relationship between temperature variability (TV) and cardiovascular hospitalization and deaths have been well established. However, limited studies were conducted to reveal the underlying mechanism for TV-related cardiovascular diseases. OBJECTIVES In the current study, a novel TV calculation, taking account for both interday and intraday TV as well as lag effects, was used to investigate the effect of short-term TV on the level of high-sensitivity C reactive protein (hs-CRP), which is a crucial preclinical predictor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). RESULTS Among the 11,623 Chinese population (46.0% male; mean age 49.8 years), the average hs-CRP was 1.4 mg/ L (standard deviation 1.6 mg/L). Statistical significance between TV and hs-CRP was observed for different TV exposure days (TV01-TV07) in adjusted model, with highest effect for TV06. Specifically, per 1 °C increase in TV06 led to 2.241% (95%CI: 1.552%-2.935%) increase in hs-CRP. Female, obesity and elderly population were more susceptible to TV. The largest mediator for the association of TV and hs-CRP was lipoprotein(a), accounting for 8.68%, followed by smoking status (4.78%), alcohol use (3.95%) and systolic BP (3.20%). CONCLUSION Short-term TV will significantly increase the level of hs-CRP, suggesting hs-CRP to be the potential biologic mechanisms underlying the cardiovascular effects of TV. And more attention should be paid to unstable weather in the global climate change context. Further developing efficient public health policies on climate change may benefit for global heath.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuting Kang
- Division of Prevention and Community Health, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, National Clinical Research center of Cardiovascular Disease, State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, Peking Union Medical College & Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 102308, China
| | - Haosu Tang
- State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
| | - Linlin Jiang
- Division of Prevention and Community Health, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, National Clinical Research center of Cardiovascular Disease, State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, Peking Union Medical College & Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 102308, China
| | - Su Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
| | - Xin Wang
- Division of Prevention and Community Health, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, National Clinical Research center of Cardiovascular Disease, State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, Peking Union Medical College & Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 102308, China
| | - Zuo Chen
- Division of Prevention and Community Health, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, National Clinical Research center of Cardiovascular Disease, State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, Peking Union Medical College & Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 102308, China
| | - Linfeng Zhang
- Division of Prevention and Community Health, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, National Clinical Research center of Cardiovascular Disease, State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, Peking Union Medical College & Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 102308, China
| | - Congyi Zheng
- Division of Prevention and Community Health, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, National Clinical Research center of Cardiovascular Disease, State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, Peking Union Medical College & Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 102308, China
| | - Zengwu Wang
- Division of Prevention and Community Health, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, National Clinical Research center of Cardiovascular Disease, State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, Peking Union Medical College & Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 102308, China.
| | - Gang Huang
- State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
| | - Runlin Gao
- Department of Cardiology, Fuwai Hospital, Peking Union Medical College & Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 100037, China
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Lei L, Bao J, Guo Y, Wang Q, Peng J, Huang C. Effects of diurnal temperature range on first-ever strokes in different seasons: a time-series study in Shenzhen, China. BMJ Open 2020; 10:e033571. [PMID: 33444167 PMCID: PMC7682471 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2019-033571] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/04/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Diurnal temperature range (DTR) is an important meteorological indicator of global climate change; high values of DTR may induce stroke morbidity, while the related high-risk periods and sensitive populations are not clear. This study aims to evaluate the effects of DTR on first-ever strokes in different seasons and in relation to sensitive populations. METHODS We collected data on 142 569 first-ever strokes during 2005-2016 in Shenzhen. We fitted a time-series Poisson model in our study, estimating the associations between DTR and first-ever strokes, with a distributed lag non-linear model. Then, we calculated strokes attributable to high DTR in different genders, age groups, education levels and stroke subtypes. RESULTS High DTR had a significant association with first-ever strokes, and the risk of stroke increased with the rise of DTR in the summer and winter. In total, 3.65% (95% empirical CI (eCI) 1.81% to 5.53%) of first-ever strokes were attributable to high DTR (5.5°C and higher) in the summer, while 2.42% (95% eCI 0.05% to 4.42%) were attributable to high DTR (8°C and higher) in the winter. In the summer, attributable fraction (AF) was significant in both genders, middle-aged and old patients, patients with different levels of education, as well as patients with cerebral infarction (CBI); in the winter, AF was significant in middle-aged patients, patients with primary and lower education level, as well as patients with CBI. CONCLUSIONS High DTR may trigger first-ever strokes in the summer and winter, and CBI is more sensitive than intracerebral haemorrhage to DTR. Most people are sensitive to high DTR in the summer, while middle-aged and low-education populations are sensitive in the winter. It is recommended that the DTR values be reported and emphasised in weather forecast services, together with the forecasts of heat and cold.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lin Lei
- Department of Non-Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Shenzhen Center for Chronic Disease Control, Shenzhen, Guangdong, China
| | - Junzhe Bao
- College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, China
- School of Public Health, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
| | - Yanfang Guo
- Department of Non-Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Bao'an District Hospital for Chronic Diseases Prevention and Cure, Shenzhen, Guangdong, China
| | - Qiong Wang
- School of Public Health, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
- Shanghai Typhoon Institute, China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai, China
| | - Ji Peng
- Department of Non-Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Shenzhen Center for Chronic Disease Control, Shenzhen, Guangdong, China
| | - Cunrui Huang
- College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, China
- School of Public Health, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
- Shanghai Typhoon Institute, China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai, China
- Shanghai Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Health, Shanghai Meteorological Service, Shanghai, China
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Dutta P, Sathish L, Mavankar D, Ganguly PS, Saunik S. Extreme Heat Kills Even in Very Hot Cities: Evidence from Nagpur, India. THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF OCCUPATIONAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL MEDICINE 2020; 11:188-195. [PMID: 33098403 PMCID: PMC7740051 DOI: 10.34172/ijoem.2020.1991] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/04/2020] [Accepted: 07/19/2020] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Although many studies have provided evidence for all-cause mortality attributed to extreme temperature across India, few studies have provided a systematic analysis of the association between all-cause mortality and temperature. OBJECTIVE To estimate the risk associated with heat waves during two major heat waves of Nagpur occurred in 2010 and 2014. METHODS The association between temperature and mortality was measured using a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) and the attributable deaths associated with the heat waves with forward perspective in the DLNM framework. RESULTS From the ecological analysis, we found 580 and 306 additional deaths in 2010 and 2014, respectively. Moving average results also gave similar findings. DLNM results showed that the relative risk was 1.5 for the temperature above 45 °C; forward perspective analysis revealed that the attributable deaths during 2010 and 2014 were 505 and 376, respectively. Results from different methods showed that heat waves in different years had variable impacts for various reasons. However, all the results were consistent during 2010 and 2014; there were 30% and 14% extra-mortalities due to heat comparing to non-heat wave years. CONCLUSION We strongly recommend the city Government to implement the action plans based on this research outcome to reduce the risk from the heat wave in future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Priya Dutta
- Indian Institute of Public Health Gandginagar, Gandhinagar, India.
| | - Lm Sathish
- Indian Institute of Public Health Gandginagar, Gandhinagar, India
| | - Dileep Mavankar
- Indian Institute of Public Health Gandginagar, Gandhinagar, India
| | | | - Sujata Saunik
- Indian Institute of Public Health Gandginagar, Gandhinagar, India
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Knowledge Graph Analysis of Human Health Research Related to Climate Change. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2020; 17:ijerph17207395. [PMID: 33050582 PMCID: PMC7599824 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17207395] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/26/2020] [Revised: 09/12/2020] [Accepted: 09/18/2020] [Indexed: 01/20/2023]
Abstract
In order to explore the development status, knowledge base, research hotspots, and future research directions related to the impacts of climate change on human health, a systematic bibliometric analysis of 6719 published articles from 2003 to 2018 in the Web of Science was performed. Using data analytics tools such as HistCite and CiteSpace, the time distribution, spatial distribution, citations, and research hotspots were analyzed and visualized. The analysis revealed the development status of the research on the impacts of climate change on human health and analyzed the research hotspots and future development trends in this field, providing important knowledge support for researchers in this field.
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26
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Anderson GB, Ferreri J, Al-Hamdan M, Crosson W, Schumacher A, Guikema S, Quiring S, Eddelbuettel D, Yan M, Peng RD. Assessing United States County-Level Exposure for Research on Tropical Cyclones and Human Health. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES 2020; 128:107009. [PMID: 33112191 PMCID: PMC7592507 DOI: 10.1289/ehp6976] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/24/2020] [Revised: 09/22/2020] [Accepted: 09/25/2020] [Indexed: 05/02/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Tropical cyclone epidemiology can be advanced through exposure assessment methods that are comprehensive and consistent across space and time, as these facilitate multiyear, multistorm studies. Further, an understanding of patterns in and between exposure metrics that are based on specific hazards of the storm can help in designing tropical cyclone epidemiological research. OBJECTIVES a) Provide an open-source data set for tropical cyclone exposure assessment for epidemiological research; and b) investigate patterns and agreement between county-level assessments of tropical cyclone exposure based on different storm hazards. METHODS We created an open-source data set with data at the county level on exposure to four tropical cyclone hazards: peak sustained wind, rainfall, flooding, and tornadoes. The data cover all eastern U.S. counties for all land-falling or near-land Atlantic basin storms, covering 1996-2011 for all metrics and up to 1988-2018 for specific metrics. We validated measurements against other data sources and investigated patterns and agreement among binary exposure classifications based on these metrics, as well as compared them to use of distance from the storm's track, which has been used as a proxy for exposure in some epidemiological studies. RESULTS Our open-source data set was typically consistent with data from other sources, and we present and discuss areas of disagreement and other caveats. Over the study period and area, tropical cyclones typically brought different hazards to different counties. Therefore, when comparing exposure assessment between different hazard-specific metrics, agreement was usually low, as it also was when comparing exposure assessment based on a distance-based proxy measurement and any of the hazard-specific metrics. DISCUSSION Our results provide a multihazard data set that can be leveraged for epidemiological research on tropical cyclones, as well as insights that can inform the design and analysis for tropical cyclone epidemiological research. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP6976.
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Affiliation(s)
- G. Brooke Anderson
- Department of Environmental and Radiological Health Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
| | - Joshua Ferreri
- Department of Environmental and Radiological Health Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
- School of Medicine, University of Colorado, Aurora, Colorado, USA
| | - Mohammad Al-Hamdan
- Universities Space Research Association, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, Alabama, USA
| | - William Crosson
- Universities Space Research Association, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, Alabama, USA
| | - Andrea Schumacher
- Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
| | - Seth Guikema
- Department of Industrial and Operations Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
| | - Steven Quiring
- Department of Geography, Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, USA
| | - Dirk Eddelbuettel
- Department of Statistics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, Illinois, USA
| | - Meilin Yan
- Department of Environmental and Radiological Health Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
- Beijing Innovation Center for Engineering Science and Advanced Technology and State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Roger D. Peng
- Department of Biostatistics, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
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Zheng M, Zhang J, Shi L, Zhang D, Pangali Sharma TP, Prodhan FA. Mapping Heat-Related Risks in Northern Jiangxi Province of China Based on Two Spatial Assessment Frameworks Approaches. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2020; 17:ijerph17186584. [PMID: 32927631 PMCID: PMC7559026 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17186584] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/24/2020] [Revised: 08/24/2020] [Accepted: 09/03/2020] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Heat-health risk is a growing concern in many regions of China due to the more frequent occurrence of extremely hot weather. Spatial indexes based on various heat assessment frameworks can be used for the assessment of heat risks. In this study, we adopted two approaches—Crichton’s risk triangle and heat vulnerability index (HVI) to identify heat-health risks in the Northern Jiangxi Province of China, by using remote sensing and socio-economic data. The Geographical Information System (GIS) overlay and principal component analysis (PCA) were separately used in two frameworks to integrate parameters. The results show that the most densely populated community in the suburbs, instead of city centers, are exposed to the highest heat risk. A comparison of two heat assessment mapping indicates that the distribution of HVI highlights the vulnerability differences between census tracts. In contrast, the heat risk index of Crichton’s risk triangle has a prominent representation for regions with high risks. The stepwise multiple linear regression zero-order correlation coefficient between HVI and outdoor workers is 0.715, highlighting the vulnerability of this particular group. Spearman’s rho nonparametric correlation and the mean test reveals that heat risk index is strongly correlated with HVI in most of the main urban regions in the study area, with a significantly lower value than the latter. The analysis of variance shows that the distribution of HVI exhibits greater variety across urban regions than that of heat risk index. Our research provides new insight into heat risk assessment for further study of heat health risk in developing countries.
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Affiliation(s)
- Minxuan Zheng
- Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Sciences, Aerospace Information Research Institute (AIR), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing 100094, China; (M.Z.); (L.S.); (D.Z.); (T.P.P.S.); (F.A.P.)
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
| | - Jiahua Zhang
- Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Sciences, Aerospace Information Research Institute (AIR), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing 100094, China; (M.Z.); (L.S.); (D.Z.); (T.P.P.S.); (F.A.P.)
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
- Correspondence:
| | - Lamei Shi
- Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Sciences, Aerospace Information Research Institute (AIR), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing 100094, China; (M.Z.); (L.S.); (D.Z.); (T.P.P.S.); (F.A.P.)
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
| | - Da Zhang
- Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Sciences, Aerospace Information Research Institute (AIR), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing 100094, China; (M.Z.); (L.S.); (D.Z.); (T.P.P.S.); (F.A.P.)
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
| | - Til Prasad Pangali Sharma
- Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Sciences, Aerospace Information Research Institute (AIR), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing 100094, China; (M.Z.); (L.S.); (D.Z.); (T.P.P.S.); (F.A.P.)
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
| | - Foyez Ahmed Prodhan
- Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Sciences, Aerospace Information Research Institute (AIR), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing 100094, China; (M.Z.); (L.S.); (D.Z.); (T.P.P.S.); (F.A.P.)
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
- Department of Agricultural Extension and Rural Development, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University, Gazipur-1706, Bangladesh
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Heatwave-Related Mortality Risk and the Risk-Based Definition of Heat Wave in South Korea: A Nationwide Time-Series Study for 2011-2017. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2020; 17:ijerph17165720. [PMID: 32784700 PMCID: PMC7460278 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17165720] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/09/2020] [Revised: 07/26/2020] [Accepted: 08/04/2020] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
Abstract
Studies on the pattern of heatwave mortality using nationwide data that include rural areas are limited. This study aimed to assess the risk of heatwave-related mortality and evaluate the health risk-based definition of heatwave. We collected data on daily temperature and mortality from 229 districts in South Korea in 2011–2017. District-specific heatwave-related mortality risks were calculated using a distributed lag model. The estimates were pooled in the total areas and for each urban and rural area using meta-regression. In the total areas, the threshold point of heatwave mortality risk was estimated at the 93rd percentile of temperature, and it was lower in urban areas than in rural areas (92nd percentile vs. 95th percentile). The maximum risk of heatwave-related mortality in the total area was 1.11 (95% CI: 1.01–1.22), and it was slightly greater in rural areas than in the urban areas (RR: 1.23, 95% CI: 0.99–1.53 vs. RR: 1.10, 95% CI: 1.01–1.20). The results differ by age- and cause-specific deaths. In conclusion, the patterns of heatwave-related mortality risk vary by area and sub-population in Korea. Thus, more target-specific heatwave definitions and action plans should be established according to different areas and populations.
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29
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Geirinhas JL, Russo A, Libonati R, Trigo RM, Castro LCO, Peres LF, Magalhães MDAFM, Nunes B. Heat-related mortality at the beginning of the twenty-first century in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2020; 64:1319-1332. [PMID: 32314060 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-020-01908-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/08/2019] [Revised: 03/16/2020] [Accepted: 03/26/2020] [Indexed: 05/24/2023]
Abstract
Temperature record-breaking events, such as the observed more intense, longer-lasting, and more frequent heat waves, pose a new global challenge to health sectors worldwide. These threats are of particular interest in low-income regions with limited investments in public health and a growing urban population, such as Brazil. Here, we apply a comprehensive interdisciplinary climate-health approach, including meteorological data and a daily mortality record from the Brazilian Health System from 2000 to 2015, covering 21 cities over the Metropolitan Region of Rio de Janeiro. The percentage of absolute mortality increase due to summer extreme temperatures is estimated using a negative binomial regression modeling approach and maximum/minimum temperature-derived indexes as covariates. Moreover, this study assesses the vulnerability to thermal stress for different age groups and both genders and thoroughly analyzes four extremely intense heat waves during 2010 and 2012 regarding their impacts on the population. Results showed that the highest absolute mortality values during heat-related events were linked to circulatory illnesses. However, the highest excess of mortality was related to diabetes, particularly for women within the elderly age groups. Moreover, results indicate that accumulated heat stress conditions during consecutive days preferentially preceded by persistent periods of moderate-temperature, lead to higher excess mortality rather than sporadic single hot days. This work may provide directions in human health policies related to extreme climate events in large tropical metropolitan areas from developing countries, contributing to altering the historically based purely reactive response.
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Affiliation(s)
- João L Geirinhas
- Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016, Lisbon, Portugal.
| | - Ana Russo
- Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Renata Libonati
- Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016, Lisbon, Portugal
- Departamento de Meteorologia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, 21941-916, Brazil
- Centro de Estudos Florestais, Universidade de Lisboa, 1349-017, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Ricardo M Trigo
- Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016, Lisbon, Portugal
- Departamento de Meteorologia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, 21941-916, Brazil
| | - Lucas C O Castro
- Departamento de Meteorologia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, 21941-916, Brazil
| | - Leonardo F Peres
- Departamento de Meteorologia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, 21941-916, Brazil
- Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera (IPMA), 1749-077, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Mônica de Avelar F M Magalhães
- Instituto de Comunicação e Informação Científica e Tecnológica em Saúde (ICICT), Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Baltazar Nunes
- Centro de Investigação em Saúde Pública, Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
- Departamento de Epidemiologia, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge, Lisbon, Portugal
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Event-Based Heat-Related Risk Assessment Model for South Korea Using Maximum Perceived Temperature, Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature, and Air Temperature Data. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2020; 17:ijerph17082631. [PMID: 32290451 PMCID: PMC7215463 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17082631] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/17/2020] [Revised: 04/07/2020] [Accepted: 04/08/2020] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
This study aimed to assess the heat-related risk (excess mortality rate) at six cities, namely, Seoul, Incheon, Daejeon, Gwangju, Daegu, and Busan, in South Korea using the daily maximum perceived temperature (PTmax), which is a physiology-based thermal comfort index, the wet-bulb globe temperature, which is meteorology-based thermal comfort index, and air temperature. Particularly, the applicability of PTmax was evaluated using excess mortality rate modeling. An event-based heat-related risk assessment model was employed for modeling the excess mortality rate. The performances of excess mortality rate models using those variables were evaluated for two data sets that were used (training data, 2000-2016) and not used (test data, 2017-2018) for the construction of the assessment models. Additionally, the excess mortality rate was separately modeled depending on regions and ages. PTmax is a good temperature indicator that can be used to model the excess mortality rate in South Korea. The application of PTmax in modeling the total mortality rate yields the best performances for the test data set, particularly for young people. From a forecasting perspective, PTmax is the most appropriate temperature indicator for assessing the heat-related excess mortality rate in South Korea.
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Chae SM, Kim D. Research Trends in Agenda-setting for Climate Change Adaptation Policy in the Public Health Sector in Korea. J Prev Med Public Health 2020; 53:3-14. [PMID: 32023669 PMCID: PMC7002993 DOI: 10.3961/jpmph.19.326] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/27/2019] [Accepted: 01/10/2020] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Many studies have been conducted to assess the health effects of climate change in Korea. However, there has been a lack of consideration regarding how the results of these studies can be applied to relevant policies. The current study aims to examine research trends at the agenda-setting stage and to review future ways in which health-related adaptation to climate change can be addressed within national public health policy. A systematic review of previous studies of the health effects of climate change in Korea was conducted. Many studies have evaluated the effect of ambient temperature on health. A large number of studies have examined the effects on deaths and cardio-cerebrovascular diseases, but a limitation of these studies is that it is difficult to apply their findings to climate change adaptation policy in the health sector. Many infectious disease studies were also identified, but these mainly focused on malaria. Regarding climate change-related factors other than ambient temperature, studies of the health effects of these factors (with the exception of air pollution) are limited. In Korea, it can be concluded that studies conducted as part of the agenda-setting stage are insufficient, both because studies on the health effects of climate change have not ventured beyond defining the problem and because health adaptation to climate change has not been set as an important agenda item. In the future, the sharing and development of relevant databases is necessary. In addition, the priority of agenda items should be determined as part of a government initiative.
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Affiliation(s)
- Su-Mi Chae
- Center for Research on Future Disease Response, Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs, Sejong, Korea
| | - Daeeun Kim
- Department of Epidemiology, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
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Designing Urban Green Blue Infrastructure for Mental Health and Elderly Wellbeing. SUSTAINABILITY 2019. [DOI: 10.3390/su11226425] [Citation(s) in RCA: 42] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/31/2022]
Abstract
The main objective of this essay is to illustrate the state-of-the-art on ‘mental health-sensitive’ open space design in the built environment. Urban Green Blue Infrastructure can contribute to urbanites’ mental health and wellbeing as well as healthy aging, while providing co-benefits balancing the negative impacts of climate change, through the provision of integrated ecosystem services. There are a number of ways that exposure to and affiliation with Nature have shown to support mental health, but we are still missing the necessary evidence of the actual benefits achieved, as well as the key performance indicators and metrics to monitor and adapt our open space to the growing urban challenges. After introducing the key concepts of degenerative mental disorders as they are growing in the urban environment, and the emerging green blue infrastructure design approach, the authors present international case studies describing how evidence-based design and Nature-based Solutions have been found to be beneficial, especially to those diagnosed with mental disorders. Subsequently, in a comparative critical analysis, the authors look closer at a number of design solutions capable, at different scales, to support healthy aging through exposure to, and affiliation with, biodiversity.
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Heo S, Bell ML. Heat waves in South Korea: differences of heat wave characteristics by thermal indices. JOURNAL OF EXPOSURE SCIENCE & ENVIRONMENTAL EPIDEMIOLOGY 2019; 29:790-805. [PMID: 30283069 DOI: 10.1038/s41370-018-0076-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/05/2018] [Revised: 07/25/2018] [Accepted: 09/06/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
Heat wave warning systems and related research define heat waves using various indices and there exists no standard definition for a heat wave. Despite various weather forecast services for heat stress in South Korea, it is unclear how different thermal indices affect the designation of heat waves and health effect estimates. We aimed to analyze trends of heat wave characteristics and mortality associations using various criteria for the warm season (June-September) in 2011-5 for the most populated two cities in South Korea, Seoul and Busan. Hourly weather monitoring data and daily mortality data in each city were obtained. The following indices were estimated to define heat waves: air temperature, heat index (HI), humidex, apparent temperature (AT), effective temperature (ET), and wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT). The thresholds of each index for heat wave definitions were obtained by statistical distribution (95th percentiles) and minimum mortality temperature (MMT). Thermal indices showed clustering of accumulation of excess heat above thresholds for northeast regions in the cities while air temperature showed it for central regions. Compared to 95th percentiles, the MMTs resulted 14 times longer heat wave days for thermal indices except for air temperature. When MMTs were used, nine times larger excess mortality from heat waves occurred for all indices compared to that from heat waves defined by the 95th percentiles. The thermal indices with the highest association between heat and mortality varied between the two cities: air temperature for Seoul and WBGT for Busan. Heat wave warnings should be based on a thorough comparison of how different heat wave criteria will affect the public health impact of heat wave warnings in terms of identifying a heat wave and degree of health impacts due to it.
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Affiliation(s)
- Seulkee Heo
- School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, United States.
| | - Michelle L Bell
- School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, United States
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Aboubakri O, Khanjani N, Jahani Y, Bakhtiari B. The impact of heat waves on mortality and years of life lost in a dry region of Iran (Kerman) during 2005-2017. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2019; 63:1139-1149. [PMID: 31127424 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-019-01726-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/02/2018] [Revised: 04/01/2019] [Accepted: 04/16/2019] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
The present study was conducted to compare the impact of heat waves on mortality and years of life lost (YLL) in Kerman, Iran during the years 2005-2017. Daily mean temperature in a combination of intensity and duration were used in order to define heat waves (90, 95, and 98th percentile and ≥ 2, 3, and 4 consecutive days). YLL was calculated according to Iran's life table and by considering the discount rate. In order to investigate the impact of heat waves in different lags and its cumulative effect on mortality and YLL, Poisson and linear models within distributed lag nonlinear models were used respectively. A maximum lag of 14 days was considered. The best model was selected based on AIC (Akaike Information Criteria). The model was adjusted for air pollutants, public holidays, days of the week, and humidity. The average daily mortality and YLL were 10.54 ± 4.31 deaths and 175.58 ± 91.39 years respectively. They were higher in men and in heat waves matching a definition of above the 98th temperature percentile and ≥ 3 days, than others. Except heat waves defined as the 98th percentile and ≥ 4 days, the impact of heat waves on mortality and YLL were the highest at lag 0. The cumulative relative risk of total mortality was significantly higher in heat waves above the 95 and 98th percentiles. The cumulative effect of heat waves on total YLL was significantly higher only above the 98th percentile. Men over 65 years old were the most vulnerable and had the highest mortality and YLL. Heat waves with temperatures above the 98th percentile that lasted at least 2 or 3 consecutive days had a significant effect in increasing both total YLL and mortality in Kerman, Iran.
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Affiliation(s)
- Omid Aboubakri
- Neurology Research Center, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
| | - Narges Khanjani
- Environmental Health Engineering Research Center, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
| | - Younes Jahani
- Modeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
| | - Bahram Bakhtiari
- Water Engineering Department, College of Agriculture, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran
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Nori-Sarma A, Anderson GB, Rajiva A, ShahAzhar G, Gupta P, Pednekar MS, Son JY, Peng RD, Bell ML. The impact of heat waves on mortality in Northwest India. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2019; 176:108546. [PMID: 31247430 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2019.108546] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/02/2019] [Revised: 06/16/2019] [Accepted: 06/17/2019] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Heat waves are anticipated to worsen with climate change. India, an understudied area with >15% of the world's population, commonly experiences temperature extremes and already resembles potential future climates of more temperate regions. Registry data from local municipal corporations and government offices were collected and translated, yielding daily all-cause mortality for 4 communities in Northwest India for all or part of the period 2000-2012. Heat waves were defined as ≥2 days with local temperature ≥97th percentile for that community. An alternate definition matching that used by the Indian Meteorological Department was also developed, to enhance policy relevance. Community-specific average daily maximum temperature over the entire record ranged from 32.5 to 34.2 °C (90.5-93.6 °F). Across communities, total mortality increased 18.1% during heat wave days compared with non-heat-wave days [95% confidence interval (CI): -5.3%, 47.3%], with the highest risk in Jaipur (29.9% [95% CI: 24.6%, 34.9%]). Evidence of effect modification by heat wave characteristics (intensity, duration, and timing in season) was limited. Findings indicate health risks associated with heat waves in communities with high baseline temperatures. Results can inform heat wave-health assessments in temperate regions in future, and improve our understanding of temperature-health associations under climate change. Further investigation of potential effect modification by heat wave characteristics is needed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Amruta Nori-Sarma
- Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies, New Haven, CT, USA.
| | - G Brooke Anderson
- Department of Environmental & Radiological Health Sciences, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO, USA
| | - Ajit Rajiva
- Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies, New Haven, CT, USA
| | | | - Prakash Gupta
- Healis-Sekhsaria Institute of Public Health, Navi Mumbai, Maharashtra, India
| | - Mangesh S Pednekar
- Healis-Sekhsaria Institute of Public Health, Navi Mumbai, Maharashtra, India
| | - Ji-Young Son
- Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Roger D Peng
- Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Michelle L Bell
- Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies, New Haven, CT, USA
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The Use of a Quasi-Experimental Study on the Mortality Effect of a Heat Wave Warning System in Korea. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2019; 16:ijerph16122245. [PMID: 31242672 PMCID: PMC6617315 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph16122245] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/30/2019] [Revised: 06/17/2019] [Accepted: 06/17/2019] [Indexed: 12/31/2022]
Abstract
Many cities and countries have implemented heat wave warning systems to combat the health effects of extreme heat. Little is known about whether these systems actually reduce heat-related morbidity and mortality. We examined the effectiveness of heat wave alerts and health plans in reducing the mortality risk of heat waves in Korea by utilizing the discrepancy between the alerts and the monitored temperature. A difference-in-differences analysis combined with propensity score weighting was used. Mortality, weather monitoring, and heat wave alert announcement data were collected for 7 major cities during 2009–2014. Results showed evidence of risk reduction among people aged 19–64 without education (−0.144 deaths/1,000,000 people, 95% CI: −0.227, −0.061) and children aged 0–19 (−0.555 deaths/1,000,000 people, 95% CI: −0.993, −0.117). Decreased cardiovascular and respiratory mortality was found in several subgroups including single persons, widowed people, blue-collar workers, people with no education or the highest level of education (university or higher). No evidence was found for decreased all-cause mortality in the population (1.687 deaths/1,000,000 people per day; 95% CI: 1.118, 2.255). In conclusion, heat wave alerts may reduce mortality for several causes and subpopulations of age and socio-economic status. Further work needs to examine the pathways through which the alerts impact subpopulations differently.
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Zhang W, Zheng C, Chen F. Mapping heat-related health risks of elderly citizens in mountainous area: A case study of Chongqing, China. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2019; 663:852-866. [PMID: 30738265 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.240] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/05/2018] [Revised: 12/21/2018] [Accepted: 01/19/2019] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Heat wave becomes a leading cause of weather-related illness and death across the world under the background of climate change, urban heat island, and population ageing. Heat health risk assessment is an important starting point for heat-related morbidity and mortality reduction within the risk governance framework. Chongqing, a mountainous municipality with a fast rate of population ageing in China, was selected as a case study for mapping the heat health risk of the elderly population at a raster scale. The results indicated that the high heat hazard and human exposure areas were mainly distributed in the metropolitan areas, which largely resulted in high heat health risk in the urban areas. However, the high heat vulnerability pixels were mainly concentrated at the remote mountainous regions which have broken terrains and low socioeconomic statuses. Compared with traditional general heat risk indicator, this new model can provide more targeted spatial information to decision makers, and is helpful to improve the flexibility and comparability of heat risk assessment tool. Furthermore, this new model is particularly valuable for quantifying heat health risk in developing countries with limited open access data.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wei Zhang
- School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China; Research Center of Urban and Regional Planning in Southwest China, Chongqing 400715, China.
| | - Caigui Zheng
- Chongqing Institute of Surveying and Planning for Land Resources and Housing, Chongqing 401121, China; Chongqing Engineering Research Center for Land Use and Remote Sensing Monitoring, Chongqing 401121, China
| | - Feng Chen
- Zhejiang Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Hangzhou 310017, China
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Jiao A, Yu C, Xiang Q, Zhang F, Chen D, Zhang L, Hu K, Zhang L, Zhang Y. Impact of summer heat on mortality and years of life lost: Application of a novel indicator of daily excess hourly heat. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2019; 172:596-603. [PMID: 30875513 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2019.01.056] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/11/2018] [Revised: 01/30/2019] [Accepted: 01/31/2019] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Previous studies have widely assessed heat-mortality relationships across global regions, while the epidemiological evidence regarding the heat effect on years of life lost (YLL) is relatively sparse. Current investigations using daily mean data cannot take hourly temperature variation into consideration and may underestimate heat effects. We developed a novel indicator, daily excess hourly heat (DEHH), to precisely evaluate the potential heat effects on mortality and YLL. METHODS Hourly data on temperature and daily information, including concentrations of air pollutants, relative humidity, and records of all registered deaths were obtained in Wuhan, China during the warm seasons (May-September) of 2009-2012. DEHH, developed in this study, is defined as daily total hourly temperatures that exceed a specific heat threshold. By performing time series regression analyses, we assessed the changes in daily mortality and YLL per interquartile range (IQR) increase in DEHH across different lag days. RESULTS The heat threshold evaluated by the Akaike Information Criterion for DEHH calculation is 30 °C (92th percentile of whole-year mean temperature distribution). Daily average DEHH was 13.9 °C, with an IQR of 19.9 °C. Linear exposure-response curves were found between DEHH and two health outcomes. Generally, heat effects lasted for 2-3 days and DEHH at lag 0-1 was most strongly associated with increased mortality and YLL. The effects were especially remarkable for stroke and ischemic heart disease mortality. Most intense effect on YLL was found in non-accidental deaths (20.11, 95% confidence interval: 8.90-31.33) at lag 0-1. More DEHH-related mortality and YLL from cardiovascular deaths were observed among males. People aged 0-74 years and males suffered more from YLL burden due to high temperatures. CONCLUSIONS Our study demonstrated that DEHH may be an alternative indicator to precisely measure heat effects on daily mortality and YLL. Further DEHH-based evidence from large scale investigations is needed so as to better understand heat-associated health burden and improve public response to extremely high temperatures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anqi Jiao
- Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430071, China
| | - Chuanhua Yu
- Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430071, China; Global Health Institute, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
| | - Qianqian Xiang
- Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan 430079, China
| | - Faxue Zhang
- Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430071, China
| | - Dieyi Chen
- Department of Global Health, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430071, China
| | - Lan Zhang
- Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan 430079, China
| | - Kejia Hu
- Institute of Island and Coastal Ecosystems, Ocean College, Zhejiang University, Zhoushan 316021, China
| | - Ling Zhang
- Hubei Province Key Laboratory of Occupational Hazard Identification and Control, School of Public Health, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430065, China
| | - Yunquan Zhang
- Hubei Province Key Laboratory of Occupational Hazard Identification and Control, School of Public Health, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430065, China; Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430071, China.
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Sharma R, Hooyberghs H, Lauwaet D, De Ridder K. Urban Heat Island and Future Climate Change-Implications for Delhi's Heat. J Urban Health 2019; 96:235-251. [PMID: 30353483 PMCID: PMC6458210 DOI: 10.1007/s11524-018-0322-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/28/2022]
Abstract
UrbClim, the urban climate model, is used for short- and long-term projections of climate for Delhi. The projections are performed for RCP8.5 using an ensemble of 11 GCM model outputs. Various heat stress indices were employed to understand the role of urban heat island (UHI) in influencing the present and future urban climate of the city. UHI intensity based on 5% warmest nights (TNp95) was 4.1 °C and exhibits negligible change over time. However, the impact of UHI on other heat stress indices is very strong. Combined hot days and tropical nights (CHT) that influenced 58-70% of the reference time frame are expected to rise to 68-77% in near-future and to 91-97% in far-future time periods. For reference time period, urban areas experience 2.3 more number of heat wave days (NHWD) than rural areas per summer season. This difference increases to 7.1 in short-term and 13.8 in long-term projections. Similar to this trend, frequency of heat waves (FHW) for urban areas is also expected to increase from 0.8 each summer season in reference time frame to 2.1 and 5.1 in short- and long-term projections. The urban-rural difference for duration of heat waves (DHW) appears to increase from 1.7 days in past to 2.3 and 2.2 days in future, illustrating that DHW for cities will be higher than non-urban areas at least by 2 days. The intensity of heat wave (IHW) for urban land uses increases from 40 °C in reference time frame to 45 °C in short-term projection to 49 °C in far future. These values for non-urban land use were 33 °C during the baseline time period and are expected to increase to 42 °C and 46 °C in near- and far-future time frames. The results clearly indicate the contribution of UHI effects in intensifying the impacts of extreme heat and heat stress in the city.
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Affiliation(s)
- Richa Sharma
- National Institute of Urban Affairs (NIUA), Delhi, India.
- Vlaamse instelling voor technologisch onderzoek (VITO), Mol, Belgium.
| | - Hans Hooyberghs
- Vlaamse instelling voor technologisch onderzoek (VITO), Mol, Belgium
| | - Dirk Lauwaet
- Vlaamse instelling voor technologisch onderzoek (VITO), Mol, Belgium
| | - Koen De Ridder
- Vlaamse instelling voor technologisch onderzoek (VITO), Mol, Belgium
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Zhang A, Hu W, Li J, Wei R, Lin J, Ma W. Impact of heatwaves on daily outpatient visits of respiratory disease: A time-stratified case-crossover study. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2019; 169:196-205. [PMID: 30466013 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2018.10.034] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/02/2018] [Revised: 10/20/2018] [Accepted: 10/27/2018] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES This study aims to estimate the impact of heatwaves from July 2010 to October 2012 on daily outpatient visits for respiratory disease (RD) in Cangnan, China and identify vulnerable populations. METHODS The definition of heatwave was a period at least 3 consecutive days with maximum temperature exceeding 35 °C in this study. A time-stratified case-crossover design was conducted to examine the relationship between heatwaves and outpatient visits for RD. Patient data for the period from 2010 to 2012 were collected from the Third People's Hospital of Cangnan and daily meteorological data for the same period were collected from the China Meteorological Data Service Center. Data regarding the air pollution index (API), a composite indicator of air pollution, were collected from the Data Center of the Chinese Ministry of Environmental Protection. RD were identified based on the 10th revision International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) codes (J00-J99). A conditional Poisson regression model was applied to examine the heatwave-RD association using the Relative Risk (RR) while adjusting for meteorological and air pollution factors including temperature, rainfall, wind speed, pressure, humidity, sunshine hours and API. RESULTS During the study period, 4 heatwaves occurred and a total of 1732 outpatient visits for RD were reported. Heatwaves increased the frequency of RD outpatient visits and the highest RR of total RD was 1.155% and 95% Confidence Intervals (95% CI) was 1.084-1.232 at Lag 0. For subcategories, heatwaves increased the risk of infectious RD (Lag 0: RR =1.182, 95% CI: 1.106-1.263) and decreased the risk of non-infectious RD ((Lag 6: RR =0.750, 95% CI: 0.568-0.990). Moreover, heatwaves showed adverse effects on acute upper respiratory infection (Lag 0: RR =1.306, 95% CI: 1.177-1.450). The RR of outpatient visits for RD was statistically significant in females (Lag 0: RR =1.161, 95% CI: 1.046-1.298), males (Lag 4: RR =1.161, 95% CI: 1.096-1.261), young people aged 4-17 years (Lag 0: RR =1.741, 95% CI: 1.524-1.990) and elders aged 65 years or older (Lag 5: RR =1.412, 95% CI: 1.111-1.794) during heatwaves. CONCLUSIONS Heatwaves had a significant harmful impact on daily outpatient visits for RD in Cangnan, especially for vulnerable population identified. These results can be used not only to strengthen the health education and protection of these vulnerable populations, but also to assist relevant organizations with developing intervention programmes and improving disease prevention and community care.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anran Zhang
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shandong University, 44 West Wenhua Road, Jinan, Shandong 250012, PR China.
| | - Wenqi Hu
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shandong University, 44 West Wenhua Road, Jinan, Shandong 250012, PR China
| | - Jiawei Li
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shandong University, 44 West Wenhua Road, Jinan, Shandong 250012, PR China.
| | - Ran Wei
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shandong University, 44 West Wenhua Road, Jinan, Shandong 250012, PR China.
| | - Junfen Lin
- Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou 310051, Zhejiang, PR China
| | - Wei Ma
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shandong University, 44 West Wenhua Road, Jinan, Shandong 250012, PR China; Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, 44 West Wenhua Road, Jinan, Shandong 250012, PR China.
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Jänicke B, Holtmann A, Kim KR, Kang M, Fehrenbach U, Scherer D. Quantification and evaluation of intra-urban heat-stress variability in Seoul, Korea. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2019; 63:1-12. [PMID: 30460432 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-018-1631-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/11/2017] [Revised: 10/03/2018] [Accepted: 10/07/2018] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
This study quantifies heat-stress hazard (air temperature), vulnerability (heat vulnerability index and age score), and risk (heat-related mortality) on the district scale in Seoul, Korea, for a comprehensive heat-stress impact assessment. Moreover, the heat-stress impact assessment is evaluated by checking the spatial consistency between heat-stress hazard, vulnerability, and risk, which was rarely done before. We applied numerical and geo-empirical models to simulate the spatial pattern of heat-stress hazard. For heat-stress vulnerability, we used demographic and socioeconomic factors. Heat-related mortality was estimated based on an event-based heat-stress risk analysis. Results are that heat-stress hazard, vulnerability, and risk are spatially variable in Seoul. The highest heat-stress hazard was detected in the districts Mapo, Yeongdeungpo, and Yangcheon, the highest vulnerability in Jongno and the highest risk in Jongno and Yangcheon. The different components (heat-stress hazard, vulnerability, and risk) and variables (heat vulnerability index and percentage of seniors) showed different spatial patterns. Knowledge about the causes of higher heat-stress risk, either the hazard or vulnerability, is helpful to design tailored adaptation measures that focus on the reduction of thermal loads or on the preparation of the vulnerable population. The evaluation showed that heat-stress vulnerability and hazard explain the spatial pattern of risk only partly. This highlights the need to evaluate heat-stress impact assessment systems to produce reliable urban heat-stress maps.
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Affiliation(s)
- Britta Jänicke
- Applied Meteorological Research Division, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, 33, Seohobuk-ro, Seogwipo-si, 63568, Jeju-do, Republic of Korea.
| | - Achim Holtmann
- Institute of Ecology, Technische Universität Berlin, Rothenburgstraße 12, 12165, Berlin, Germany
| | - Kyu Rang Kim
- Applied Meteorological Research Division, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, 33, Seohobuk-ro, Seogwipo-si, 63568, Jeju-do, Republic of Korea
| | - Misun Kang
- Applied Meteorological Research Division, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, 33, Seohobuk-ro, Seogwipo-si, 63568, Jeju-do, Republic of Korea
| | - Ute Fehrenbach
- Institute of Ecology, Technische Universität Berlin, Rothenburgstraße 12, 12165, Berlin, Germany
| | - Dieter Scherer
- Institute of Ecology, Technische Universität Berlin, Rothenburgstraße 12, 12165, Berlin, Germany
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Ma Y, Zhou J, Yang S, Yu Z, Wang F, Zhou J. Effects of extreme temperatures on hospital emergency room visits for respiratory diseases in Beijing, China. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2019; 26:3055-3064. [PMID: 30506386 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-018-3855-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/16/2018] [Accepted: 11/26/2018] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Extreme temperature is closely associated with human health, but limited evidence is available for the effects of extreme temperatures on respiratory diseases in China. The goal of this study is to evaluate the effects of extreme temperatures on hospital emergency room (ER) visits for respiratory diseases in Beijing, China. We used a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) coupled with a generalized additive model (GAM) to estimate the association between extreme temperatures and hospital ER visits for different age and gender subgroups in Beijing from 2009 to 2012. The results showed that the exposure-response curve between temperature and hospital ER visits was almost W-shaped, with increasing relative risks (RRs) at extremely low temperature. In the whole year period, strong acute hot effects were observed, especially for the elders (age > 65 years). The highest RR associated with the extremely high temperature was 1.36 (95% CI, 0.96-1.92) at lag 0-27. The longer-lasting cold effects were found the strongest at lag 0-27 for children (age ≤ 15 years) and the relative risk was 1.96 (95% CI, 1.70-2.26). We also found that females were more susceptible to extreme temperatures than males.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuxia Ma
- College of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China.
| | - Jianding Zhou
- College of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
| | - Sixu Yang
- College of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
| | - Zhiang Yu
- College of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
| | - Fei Wang
- Tacheng Meteorology Bureau, Xinjiang, 834700, China
| | - Ji Zhou
- Shanghai Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Health, Shanghai, 200030, China.
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Heo S, Bell ML, Lee JT. Comparison of health risks by heat wave definition: Applicability of wet-bulb globe temperature for heat wave criteria. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2019; 168:158-170. [PMID: 30316101 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2018.09.032] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/06/2018] [Revised: 09/23/2018] [Accepted: 09/25/2018] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
Despite the active applications of thermal comfort indices for heat wave definitions, there is lack of evaluation for the impact of extended days of high temperature on health outcomes using many of the indices. This study compared the impact of heat waves on health outcomes among different heat wave definitions based on thermal comfort and air temperature. We compared heat waves in South Korea (cities and provinces) for the warm season for 2011-2014, using air temperature, heat index (HI), and web-bulb globe temperature (WBGT). Heat waves were defined as days with daily maximum values of each index at a specified threshold (literature-based, the 90th and 95th percentiles) or above. Distributed lag non-linear models and meta-analysis were used to estimate risk of mortality and hospitalization for all-causes, cardiovascular causes, respiratory causes and heat disorders during heat wave days compared to non-heat wave days. WBGT identified 1.15 times longer maximum heat wave duration for the study periods than air temperature when the thresholds were based on 90th and 95th percentiles. Over the study period, for heat waves defined by WBGT and HI, the Southwestern region showed the highest total number of heat wave days, whereas for air temperature the longest heat wave days were identified in the southeastern region. The highest and most significant impact of heat waves were found by WBGT for hospitalization from heat disorders (Relative risk = 2.959, 95% CI: 1.566-5.594). In sensitivity analyses using different structure of lags and temperature metrics (e.g., daily mean and minimum), the impacts of heat waves on most health outcomes substantially increased by using WBGT for heat wave definitions. As a result, WBGT and its thresholds can be used to relate heat waves and heat-related diseases to improve the prevention effectiveness of heat wave warnings and give informative health guidelines according to the range of WBGT thresholds.
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Affiliation(s)
- Seulkee Heo
- School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, United States.
| | - Michelle L Bell
- School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, United States
| | - Jong-Tae Lee
- School of Health Policy and Management, Korea University, Seoul, South Korea
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Morignat E, Gay E, Vinard JL, Sala C, Calavas D, Hénaux V. Impact of heat and cold waves on female cattle mortality beyond the effect of extreme temperatures. J Therm Biol 2018; 78:374-380. [DOI: 10.1016/j.jtherbio.2018.11.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/07/2018] [Revised: 11/05/2018] [Accepted: 11/05/2018] [Indexed: 10/27/2022]
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Yin P, Chen R, Wang L, Liu C, Niu Y, Wang W, Jiang Y, Liu Y, Liu J, Qi J, You J, Zhou M, Kan H. The added effects of heatwaves on cause-specific mortality: A nationwide analysis in 272 Chinese cities. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2018; 121:898-905. [PMID: 30347372 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2018.10.016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/24/2018] [Revised: 10/10/2018] [Accepted: 10/10/2018] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The evidence was limited and inconclusive about the added effects of heatwaves, especially in developing countries. OBJECTIVE To evaluate the added effects of heatwaves on cause-specific mortality in China. METHODS We designed a nationwide time-series analysis based on daily data from 272 main Chinese cities to from 2013 to 2015. We adopted 12 definitions by combining 4 heat thresholds (90th, 92.5th, 95th, 97.5th percentile of city-specific daily mean temperature) and duration of ≥2, 3 and 4 days. We applied overdispersed generalized additive models with distributed lag models to estimate the city-specific cumulative effects of heatwaves over lags of 0-10 days after controlling for daily temperature. We then, used a meta-regression model to pool the effect estimates at national and regional levels. RESULTS Heatwaves could significantly increase risk for mortality from total and cardiopulmonary diseases, including coronary heart disease, ischemic stroke (rather than hemorrhagic stroke) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The effects increased with higher thresholds, but were not appreciably influenced by the duration of heat. The risks generally occurred immediately and lasted for 3 to 5 days. The risks were much larger in the temperate continental zone and the temperate monsoon zones than in the subtropical monsoon zone where there was an evident mortality displacement. The elderly, females and less-educated people were more vulnerable. CONCLUSIONS This analysis provided ample evidence for the added mortality risk associated with heatwaves, which had important implications for designing heatwave-warning systems and predicting the disease burden of future heatwaves.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peng Yin
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
| | - Renjie Chen
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment of the Ministry of Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China; Shanghai Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Health, Shanghai 200030, China
| | - Lijun Wang
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
| | - Cong Liu
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment of the Ministry of Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
| | - Yue Niu
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment of the Ministry of Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
| | - Weidong Wang
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment of the Ministry of Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
| | - Yixuan Jiang
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment of the Ministry of Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
| | - Yunning Liu
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
| | - Jiangmei Liu
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
| | - Jinlei Qi
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
| | - Jinling You
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
| | - Maigeng Zhou
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China.
| | - Haidong Kan
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment of the Ministry of Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China; Key Laboratory of Reproduction Regulation of National Population and Family Planning Commission, Shanghai Institute of Planned Parenthood Research, Institute of Reproduction and Development, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China..
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Seposo XT, Dang TN, Honda Y. Exploring the effects of high temperature on mortality in four cities in the Philippines using various heat wave definitions in different mortality subgroups. Glob Health Action 2018; 10:1368969. [PMID: 28914171 PMCID: PMC5645680 DOI: 10.1080/16549716.2017.1368969] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/05/2022] Open
Abstract
Background: Sustained high temperatures, specifically heat waves (HW), increase the risk of dying, especially among risk populations, which are highly vulnerable to its additional effect. In developing countries, there are only a few studies which focused on the magnitude of the risks attributed to HWs. Objectives: This study explored the HW effects using 15 HW definitions through the combination of duration (> 2, > 4, and > 7 consecutive days) and intensity (at the ≥ 90th, ≥ 95th, ≥ 97th, ≥ 98th, and ≥ 99th temperature percentiles). Methods: Daily mortality count data from 2006–2010 were obtained from the four tropical cities of the Philippines, and were further stratified by mortality sub-groups, such as cause of death, sex, and age. The same period of daily maximum temperature and relative humidity were also collected. We used a distributed lag non-linear model to determine the risks associated with the main temperature effects, as well as the added HW effects. Results: It has been observed that the main temperature effects comprise a substantial portion of the risks compared to the HW effects, even across the mortality sub-groups. Further stratification by the sub-groups showed significant HW effects among the young and male populations. Conclusions: Results of this study can be of use to improve (1) candidate HW definition identification/selection, and (2) risk population-specific strategies, taking into consideration the risk attributions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xerxes T Seposo
- a Graduate School of Comprehensive Human Sciences , University of Tsukuba , Tsukuba City , Japan
| | - Tran Ngoc Dang
- a Graduate School of Comprehensive Human Sciences , University of Tsukuba , Tsukuba City , Japan.,b Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health , University of Medicine and Pharmacy , Ho Chi Minh City , Vietnam
| | - Yasushi Honda
- c Faculty of Health and Sports Sciences , University of Tsukuba , Tsukuba City , Japan
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Xu Z, Cheng J, Hu W, Tong S. Heatwave and health events: A systematic evaluation of different temperature indicators, heatwave intensities and durations. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2018; 630:679-689. [PMID: 29494976 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.268] [Citation(s) in RCA: 42] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/02/2018] [Revised: 02/21/2018] [Accepted: 02/22/2018] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Temperature observation time and type influenced the assessment of heat impact on mortality, and different health events may have different temperature thresholds beyond which these health events increase substantially. This study aimed to investigate whether temperature observation time and type influenced the assessment of heatwave impact on morbidity, to assess how heatwave duration modified heatwave impact on morbidity, and to examine whether there was a consistent temperature threshold beyond which five different types of health events increased sharply. METHODS Minutely air temperature data in Brisbane, Australia, were collected and converted into five daily temperature indicators observed at different time points or calculated using different approaches. Twenty-nine heatwave definitions for each temperature indicator were used to examine the effects of heatwaves on five health events (i.e., ambulance service uses, emergency department attendances (EDAs), hospitalizations, possible EDAs of heat and/or dehydration, and possible hospitalizations of heat and/or dehydration) by quasi-Poisson models. RESULTS Mean temperature was slightly better than maximum temperature in predicting heatwave impact on morbidity (P<0.05), and no appreciable difference in model performance was observed amongst different mean temperature indicators. Two-day-duration heatwaves were more detrimental than longer-lasting heatwaves when heatwave intensity was not high, and 97th percentile appeared to be a consistent temperature threshold for most heatwave-related health events (P<0.05). CONCLUSIONS It seems desirable in the development of heatwave definition and early warning systems to use mean temperature as an exposure indicator, and to adopt the 97th percentile of temperature as the trigger in Brisbane. Health sectors need to better prepare for short-lasting heatwaves.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhiwei Xu
- School of Public Health and Social Work & Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Australia.
| | - Jian Cheng
- School of Public Health and Social Work & Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Australia
| | - Wenbiao Hu
- School of Public Health and Social Work & Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Australia
| | - Shilu Tong
- School of Public Health and Social Work & Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Australia; School of Public Health and Institute of Environment and Human Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China; Shanghai Children's Medical Centre, Shanghai Jiao-Tong University, Shanghai, China.
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Chen R, Miao F, Zheng J, Wu Y, Li Y. Effects of Consecutive Moderately Cold Days on Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in Shenzhen, China: A Preliminary Study. ANNUAL INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE OF THE IEEE ENGINEERING IN MEDICINE AND BIOLOGY SOCIETY. IEEE ENGINEERING IN MEDICINE AND BIOLOGY SOCIETY. ANNUAL INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE 2018; 2018:1148-1151. [PMID: 30440594 DOI: 10.1109/embc.2018.8513273] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Despite traditional risk factors such as aging and hyperlipemia for cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, many studies have also confirmed that both hot and cold ambient temperatures are associated with CVD mortality. This paper aims to explore the effects of consecutive moderately cold days on CVD mortality in the warm city Shenzhen during relatively cold months from 2011 to 2015. In this study, totally there were 4589 CVD death cases among the residents during a total of 24 relatively cold months. Effects of consecutive cold days on CVD mortality was evaluated by the daily percent increase of CVD mortality. Three temperature thresholds were selected, which were 15°, 14°, and 13°, respectively. The results showed that when the cold weather lasted 5 days and onwards, CVD mortality showed a continuous increment. When the temperature thresholds were 15°, 14°, or 13°, percent increase of CVD mortality at the consecutive 6th cold day reached 22%, 21%, and 24% respectively, and 26%, 38%, 33% at the consecutive 10th cold day, respectively. Thus, the consecutive moderately cold days in warm regions had continuous and accumulative negative effects on CVD mortality. The study may help local government to take timely prevention measures for moderately cold temperatures and thus to protect the wellbeing for the public.
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Zhang L, Zhang Z, Ye T, Zhou M, Wang C, Yin P, Hou B. Mortality effects of heat waves vary by age and area: a multi-area study in China. Environ Health 2018; 17:54. [PMID: 29890973 PMCID: PMC5996527 DOI: 10.1186/s12940-018-0398-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/08/2017] [Accepted: 05/28/2018] [Indexed: 05/02/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Many studies have reported an increased mortality risk from heat waves comparing with non-heat wave days. However, how much the mortality rate change with the heat intensity-vulnerability curve-is still unknown. Such unknown information makes the related managers impossible to assess scientifically life losses from heat waves, consequently fail in conducting suitable integrated risk management measures. METHODS We used the heat wave intensity index (HWII) to characterize quantitatively the heat waves, then applied a distributed lag non-linear model to explore the area-specific definition of heat wave, and developed the vulnerability models on the relationships between HWII and mortality by age and by area. Finally, Monte Carlo method was run to assess and compare the event-based probabilistic heat wave risk during the periods of 1971-2015 and 2051-2095. RESULTS We found a localized definition of heat wave for each corresponding area based on the minimum AIC (Akaike information criterion). Under the local heat wave events, the expected life loss during 1971-2015 does distinguish across areas, and decreases consistently in the order of WZ Chongqing, PK Nanjing and YX Guangzhou for each age group. More specifically, for the elders (≥65), the average annual loss (AAL) (and 95% confidence interval) would be 61.3 (30.6-91.9), 38 (3.8-72.2) and 18.7 (7.3-30) deaths per million people. With two stresses from warming and aging in future China, the predicted average AAL of the elders under four Representative Carbon Pathways (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) during 2051-2095 would be 2460, 1675, 465 deaths per million for PK Nanjing, YX Guangzhou and WZ Chongqing, respectively, approximately becoming 8~ 90 times of the AAL during 1971-2015. CONCLUSION This study found that the non-linear HWII-mortality relationships vary by age and area. The heat wave mortality losses are closely associated with the social-economic level. With the increasing extreme climatic events and a rapid aging trend in China, our findings can provide guidance for policy-makers to take appropriate regional adaptive measures to reduce health risks in China.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lingyan Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resources Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875 China
| | - Zhao Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resources Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875 China
| | - Tao Ye
- State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resources Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875 China
| | - Maigeng Zhou
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 100050 China
| | - Chenzhi Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resources Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875 China
| | - Peng Yin
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 100050 China
| | - Bin Hou
- State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resources Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875 China
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Ho HC, Knudby A, Chi G, Aminipouri M, Yuk-FoLai D. Spatiotemporal analysis of regional socio-economic vulnerability change associated with heat risks in Canada. APPLIED GEOGRAPHY (SEVENOAKS, ENGLAND) 2018; 95:61-70. [PMID: 31031454 PMCID: PMC6482004 DOI: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2018.04.015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/15/2023]
Abstract
Excess mortality can be caused by extreme hot weather events, which are increasing in severity and frequency in Canada due to climate change. Individual and social vulnerability factors influence the mortality risk associated with a given heat exposure. We constructed heat vulnerability indices using census data from 2006 and 2011 in Canada, developed a novel design to compare spatiotemporal changes of heat vulnerability, and identified locations that may be increasingly vulnerable to heat. The results suggest that 1) urban areas in Canada are particularly vulnerable to heat, 2) suburban areas and satellite cities around major metropolitan areas show the greatest increases in vulnerability, and 3) heat vulnerability changes are driven primarily by changes in the density of older ages and infants. Our approach is applicable to heat vulnerability analyses in other countries.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hung Chak Ho
- Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong
| | - Anders Knudby
- Department of Geography, Environment and Geomatics, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Guangqing Chi
- Department of Agricultural Economics, Sociology, and Education, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA
- Population Research Institute, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA
- Social Science Research Institute, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA
| | - Mehdi Aminipouri
- Department of Geography, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada
| | - Derrick Yuk-FoLai
- Department of Geography and Resource Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
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