Extinction risk and diversification are linked in a plant biodiversity hotspot

Spatial heterogeneity of extinction risk for flowering plants in China

Understanding the variability of extinction risk and its potential drivers across different spatial extents is crucial to revealing the underlying processes of biodiversity loss and sustainability. However, in countries with high climatic and topographic heterogeneity, studies on extinction risk are often challenged by complexities associated with extent effects. Here, using 2.02 million fine-grained distribution records and a phylogeny including 27,185 species, we find that the extinction risk of flowering plants in China is spatially concentrated in southwestern China. Our analyses suggest that spatial extinction risks of flowering plants in China may be caused by multiple drivers and are extent dependent. Vegetation structure based on proportion of growth forms is likely the dominant extinction driver at the national extent, followed by climatic and evolutionary drivers. Finer extent analyses indicate that the potential dominant extinction drivers vary across zones and vegetation regions. Despite regional heterogeneity, we detect a geographical continuity potential in extinction drivers, with variation in West China dominated by vegetation structure, South China by climate, and North China by evolution. Our findings highlight that identification of potential extent-dependent drivers of extinction risk is crucial for targeted conservation practice in countries like China.

Phylogenetic diversity and North Andean block conservation

Background

The Northern Andean Block (NAB) harbors high biodiversity; therefore, it is one of the most important areas in the Neotropics. Nevertheless, the settlement of several human populations has triggered the rapid transformation of ecosystems, leading to the extinction or endangerment of many species.

Methods

Because phylogenetic diversity indices quantify the historical distinctness between species, they are adequate tools for evaluating priority conservation areas. We reconstructed 93 phylogenies encompassing 1,252 species and, utilizing their occurrence data sourced from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, computed the Average Taxonomic Distinctness Index (AvTD) for each grid cell with a spatial resolution of 0.25° within the NAB. The index values for each grid cell were categorized into quantiles, and grid cells displaying values within the upper quantile (Q5) were identified as the most significant in terms of phylogenetic diversity. We also calculated the contribution of endemic species to overall phylogenetic diversity within the NAB, specifically focusing on areas preserved within protected areas.

Results

The NAB Andean region exhibited the highest AvTD, with high AvTD values observed in the middle and southern areas of Cordilleras. Endemic species made a relatively modest contribution to the overall phylogenetic diversity of the NAB, accounting for only 1.2% of the total. Despite their relatively small geographical footprints, protected areas within the NAB have emerged as crucial repositories of biodiversity, encompassing 40% of the total phylogenetic diversity in the region.

Discussion

Although the NAB Andean region has been identified as the most crucial area in terms of AvTD, some regions in the Amazonian Piedemonte and Pacific lowlands have high AvTD levels. Interestingly, some protected areas have been found to harbor higher AvTDs than expected, given their smaller size. Although the delimitation of new PAs and species richness have been the primary factors driving the expansion of PAs, it is also essential to consider the evolutionary information of species to conserve all aspects of biodiversity, or at least cover most of them. Therefore, using phylogenetic diversity measures and the results of this study can contribute to expanding the PA network and improving the connectivity between PAs. This approach will help conserve different aspects of biodiversity and preserve evolutionary relationships between species.

Opposing effects of plant traits on diversification

Species diversity can vary dramatically across lineages due to differences in speciation and extinction rates. Here, we explore the effects of several plant traits on diversification, finding that most traits have opposing effects on diversification. For example, outcrossing may increase the efficacy of selection and adaptation but also decrease mate availability, two processes with contrasting effects on lineage persistence. Such opposing trait effects can manifest as differences in diversification rates that depend on ecological context, spatiotemporal scale, and associations with other traits. The complexity of pathways linking traits to diversification suggests that the mechanistic underpinnings behind their correlations may be difficult to interpret with any certainty, and context dependence means that the effects of specific traits on diversification are likely to differ across multiple lineages and timescales. This calls for taxonomically and context-controlled approaches to studies that correlate traits and diversification.

Extinction: The downsizing of morphospace

Birds with unusual traits are at elevated risk of extinction. Future avian assemblages are therefore likely to be less morphologically varied than they are today, reducing the diversity of ecosystems services they can support, and their capacity for adaptive change.

Relative Importance of Ecological, Evolutionary and Anthropogenic Pressures on Extinction Risk in Chinese Angiosperm Genera

China has many threatened plant species, which are exposed to environmental degradation and other anthropogenic pressures. We assessed support for potential extinction pathways in Chinese angiosperm genera and quantified possible threats to phylogenetic diversity. We compiled a database and phylogeny for 27,409 Chinese angiosperm species in 2,453 genera. For each genus, we used the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List classifications to quantify extinction risk and calculated predictors corresponding to their ecological, evolutionary characteristics and exposure to human pressures. We first tested for phylogenetic clustering in extinction risk among genera and then tested support for direct and indirect causal pathways involving our predictors using piecewise structural equation models. Finally, we quantified the potential loss of phylogenetic diversity under different extinction scenarios. We found that extinction risk is non-randomly distributed among Chinese angiosperm genera, with the proportion of threatened species higher in range-limited and species-rich taxa. Habitat loss had a significant positive effect on threatened species richness. Phylogenetic diversity loss under scenarios: the decreasing habitat loss and relative extinction rate were high. Thus, genera would suffer from high extinction risk, if species in these genera occupy similar niches and overlapping ranges. While diversification or speciation via niche divergence might increase range-limited species vulnerable to stochastic extinction, this could reduce extinction risk of the whole clade by expanding its range and climatic niche tolerance. Endemic genera with higher extinction rates, less climatic niche divergence, and lower range segregation are especially vulnerable to anthropogenic disturbances.

Towards a phylogenetic ecology of plant pests and pathogens

Plant-pathogens and insect pests, hereafter pests, play an important role in structuring ecological communities, yet both native and introduced pests impose significant pressure on wild and managed systems, and pose a threat to food security. Global changes in climate and land use, and transportation of plants and pests around the globe are likely to further increase the range, frequency and severity of pest outbreaks in the future. Thus, there is a critical need to expand on current ecological theory to address these challenges. Here, we outline a phylogenetic framework for the study of plant and pest interactions. In plants, a growing body of work has suggested that evolutionary relatedness, phylogeny, strongly structures plant-pest associations-from pest host breadths and impacts, to their establishment and spread in new regions. Understanding the phylogenetic dimensions of plant-pest associations will help to inform models of invasive species spread, disease and pest risk in crops, and emerging pest outbreaks in native plant communities-which will have important implications for protecting food security and biodiversity into the future. This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease macroecology: parasite diversity and dynamics across the globe'.

Evolutionary legacies in contemporary tetrapod imperilment

The Tree of Life will be irrevocably reshaped as anthropogenic extinctions continue to unfold. Theory suggests that lineage evolutionary dynamics, such as age since origination, historical extinction filters and speciation rates, have influenced ancient extinction patterns - but whether these factors also contribute to modern extinction risk is largely unknown. We examine evolutionary legacies in contemporary extinction risk for over 4000 genera, representing ~30,000 species, from the major tetrapod groups: amphibians, birds, turtles and crocodiles, squamate reptiles and mammals. We find consistent support for the hypothesis that extinction risk is elevated in lineages with higher recent speciation rates. We subsequently test, and find modest support for, a primary mechanism driving this pattern: that rapidly diversifying clades predominantly comprise range-restricted, and extinction-prone, species. These evolutionary patterns in current imperilment may have important consequences for how we manage the erosion of biological diversity across the Tree of Life.

Cross-scale monitoring of habitat suitability changes using satellite time series and ecological niche models

One of the biggest challenges to deal with the global crisis of biodiversity loss is the lack of efficient and viable monitoring systems across scales. Unlike traditional in situ biodiversity monitoring, a usually costly and time-consuming enterprise, satellite remote sensing (SRS) data offer a technically feasible and sustainable in time solution. Here, we devise a cost-effective and upgradeable spatiotemporal framework for monitoring the species-specific habitat availability changes across scales by trend analysis of habitat suitability index (HSI) derived from ecological niche models (ENMs; Maxent) and using time series of SRS data (MODIS). The SRS-ENM framework was applied for a large suite of native species (911), from major taxonomic groups (flora (vascular plants), amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals), and listed in the IUCN Red List at regional (Iberian Peninsula) and continental (Europe) scales. The HSI-trend analyses predict cumulative reductions in habitat suitability for Threatened and Non-Threatened species across scales for the period 2002-2016. Specifically, 19% and 66% of the total grid cells for both species' groups showed negative trends at both regional and continental scales, respectively. Results were similar when considering all IUCN threat categories. All taxa groups showed a decrease in habitat suitability, but amphibians and reptiles groups hosted the largest number of negative HSI-trends grid cells. Considering all groups together, 12% and 34% of both study areas have strong reductions in habitat quality. We conclude that our framework detects increases and decreases in species' habitat suitability regardless of the spatial scale, extent, and pixel size. Species' range predictions across space and time based on SRS time series represent a promising Earth observation tool to support traditional risk assessment protocols and anticipate the decision-making process, while serving as a cross-scale biodiversity monitoring system.

Rarity patterns of woody plant species are associated with life form and diversification rates in Pacific islands forests

PREMISE

Rarity is a complex and central concept in ecology and conservation biology. Yet, it is still poorly understood why some species are rare and others common. Here, we aimed to understand the drivers of species rarity patterns in woody plant communities.

METHODS

We analyzed the local abundance and landscape frequency of 121 woody plant species across 238 plots on American Samoa and Hawaiian islands. We first assessed whether taxonomy, life form (shrub, small tree, large tree), and dispersal syndrome (dispersed by animals or by other means) are associated with the rarity of species. We then analyzed phylogenetic patterns in plant rarity and tested whether rarity patterns are associated with species evolutionary distinctiveness and the number of species within genera and families.

RESULTS

Large trees were less abundant but more frequent than shrub species. Animal-dispersed species tended to be less abundant than species dispersed by other means, while species frequency was not associated with dispersal syndromes. Relative frequency in Hawai'i exhibited a more robust phylogenetic signal than did abundance. Both evolutionary distinctiveness and taxa species richness were significantly associated with the frequency of shrub species in Hawai'i.

CONCLUSIONS

Life form appears consistently associated with the rarity of species. High diversification rate is probably a key factor explaining landscape-scale rarity of native species on isolated archipelagos like Hawai'i. At the landscape scale, rarity appears to be inversely associated with evolutionary distinctiveness, but at the local scale, species abundance may be not associated with evolutionary distinctiveness.

Opposing macroevolutionary and trait-mediated patterns of threat and naturalisation in flowering plants

Due to expanding global trade and movement of people, new plant species are establishing in exotic ranges at increasing rates while the number of native species facing extinction from multiple threats grows. Yet, how species losses and gains globally may, together, be linked to traits and macroevolutionary processes is poorly understood. Here, we show that, adjusting for diversification rate and clade age, the proportion of threatened species across flowering plant families is negatively related to the proportion of naturalised species per family. Moreover, naturalisation is positively associated with range size, short generation time, autonomous seed production and interspecific hybridisation, but negatively with age and diversification, whereas threat is negatively associated with range size and hybridisation, and positively with biotic pollination, age and diversification rate. That we find such a pronounced signature of naturalisation and threat across plant families suggests that both trait syndromes have coexisted over deep evolutionary time and counter to intuition, that neither strategy is necessarily superior to the other over long evolutionary timespans.

Spatiophylogenetic modelling of extinction risk reveals evolutionary distinctiveness and brief flowering period as threats in a hotspot plant genus

Comparative models used to predict species threat status can help identify the diagnostic features of species at risk. Such models often combine variables measured at the species level with spatial variables, causing multiple statistical challenges, including phylogenetic and spatial non-independence. We present a novel Bayesian approach for modelling threat status that simultaneously deals with both forms of non-independence and estimates their relative contribution, and we apply the approach to modelling threat status in the Australian plant genus Hakea. We find that after phylogenetic and spatial effects are accounted for, species with greater evolutionary distinctiveness and a shorter annual flowering period are more likely to be threatened. The model allows us to combine information on evolutionary history, species biology and spatial data, calculate latent extinction risk (potential for non-threatened species to become threatened), estimate the most important drivers of risk for individual species and map spatial patterns in the effects of different predictors on extinction risk. This could be of value for proactive conservation decision-making based on the early identification of species and regions of potential conservation concern.

Determinants of geographic range size in plants

Geographic range size has long fascinated ecologists and evolutionary biologists, yet our understanding of the factors that cause variation in range size among species and across space remains limited. Not only does geographic range size inform decisions about the conservation and management of rare and nonindigenous species due to its relationship with extinction risk, rarity, and invasiveness, but it also provides insights into fundamental processes such as dispersal and adaptation. There are several features unique to plants (e.g. polyploidy, mating system, sessile habit) that may lead to distinct mechanisms explaining variation in range size. Here, we highlight key studies testing intrinsic and extrinsic hypotheses about geographic range size under contrasting scenarios where species' ranges are static or change over time. We then present results from a meta-analysis of the relative importance of commonly hypothesized determinants of range size in plants. We show that our ability to infer the relative importance of these determinants is limited, particularly for dispersal ability, mating system, ploidy, and environmental heterogeneity. We highlight avenues for future research that merge approaches from macroecology and evolutionary ecology to better understand how adaptation and dispersal interact to facilitate niche evolution and range expansion.

Is dispersal mode a driver of diversification and geographical distribution in the tropical plant family Melastomataceae?

Species of plants with different life history strategies may differ in their seed dispersal mechanisms, impacting their distribution and diversification patterns. Shorter or longer distance dispersal is favored by different dispersal modes, facilitating (or constraining) population isolation, which can, in turn, impact speciation and species range sizes. While these associations are intuitive, few studies have explicitly tested these hypotheses for large clades of angiosperms. The plant family Melastomataceae is found on disparate habitats with different dispersal modes, representing a good model to address these questions. In this study, we reconstruct the phylogeny of Melastomataceae and gather data on their dispersal mode and range size to test the impact of dispersal mode on diversification and range size evolution. We found that abiotic dispersal is ancestral in the family, while biotic dispersal evolved multiple times. Species richness distribution is very similar across dispersal modes, although abiotically dispersed species tend to be relatively more diverse in seasonal environments. Range sizes across dispersal modes are not significantly different, although biotically dispersed species have slightly wider distributions. Model comparisons indicate that factors other than dispersal mode might have driven diversification heterogeneity. We did not find evidence for the role of dispersal mode driving diversification rates or range size in the Melastomataceae, suggesting a complex macroevolutionary scenario for this diverse angiosperm family. The bulk of changes to biotic dispersal coinciding with an increase in passerine diversification suggests a possible "past" key innovation in Melastomataceae. Future studies should investigate the role of other diversification drivers in the family and the relatively higher diversity of abiotically dispersed species in open habitats.

Does Evolutionary History Correlate with Contemporary Extinction Risk by Influencing Range Size Dynamics?

Extinction threatens many species yet is predicted by few factors across the plant tree of life (ToL). Taxon age is one factor that may associate with extinction if occupancy of geographic and adaptive zones varies with time, but evidence for such an association has been equivocal. Age-dependent occupancy can also influence diversification rates and thus extinction risk where new taxa have small range and population sizes. To test how age, diversification, and range size were correlated with extinction, we analyzed 639 well-sampled genera representing 8,937 species from across the plant ToL. We found a greater proportion of species were threatened by contemporary extinction in younger and faster-diversifying genera. When we directly tested how range size mediated this pattern in two large, well-sampled groups, our results varied. In conifers, potential range size was smaller in older species and was correlated with higher extinction risk. Age on its own had no direct effect on extinction when accounting for its influence on range size. In palm species, age was neither directly nor indirectly correlated with extinction risk. Our results suggest that range size dynamics may explain differing patterns of extinction risk across the ToL, with consequences for biodiversity conservation.

A global assessment of the drivers of threatened terrestrial species richness

High numbers of threatened species might be expected to occur where overall species richness is also high; however, this explains only a proportion of the global variation in threatened species richness. Understanding why many areas have more or fewer threatened species than would be expected given their species richness, and whether that is consistent across taxa, is essential for identifying global conservation priorities. Here, we show that, after controlling for species richness, environmental factors, such as temperature and insularity, are typically more important than human impacts for explaining spatial variation in global threatened species richness. Human impacts, nevertheless, have an important role, with relationships varying between vertebrate groups and zoogeographic regions. Understanding this variation provides a framework for establishing global conservation priorities, identifying those regions where species are inherently more vulnerable to the effects of threatening human processes, and forecasting how threatened species might be distributed in a changing world.

Phylogeny and biogeography of the Daniellia clade (Leguminosae: Detarioideae), a tropical tree lineage largely threatened in Africa and Madagascar

The legume subfamily Detarioideae is exceptionally diverse in tropical Africa and Madagascar, compared to South America or Asia, a trend contrary to that shown by most other pantropical plant groups. We aim to elucidate the process of diversification giving rise to these high diversity levels by focussing our investigations on the Daniellia clade, which is present in both Africa and Madagascar. The Daniellia clade is an early-diverging lineage of subfamily Detarioideae (Leguminosae; pea family) and consists of three genera: Daniellia, Brandzeia and Neoapaloxylon. The species belonging to this group exhibit a wide range of habitat types. The Madagascar endemics Brandzeia (1 species) and Neoapaloxylon (3 species) occupy dry woodlands and arid succulent habitats respectively. Daniellia alsteeniana and D. oliveri are found in savannahs while the remaining eight species within Daniellia all occupy rainforest habitats. Phylogenetic analyses were generated from a dense, multi-individual species level sampling of the clade. Divergence time estimates were carried out using a molecular clock method to investigate biogeographical patterns and shifts in habitat types within the Daniellia clade, and conservation assessments were conducted to determine the levels of extinction risks these species are facing. We estimate that the Daniellia clade first emerged during the Early Eocene from an ancestor present in the rainforests of North Africa at that time, reflecting an ancestral habitat preference. There was a first major split over the course of the Eocene, giving rise to both African rainforest and Madagascan savannah lineages. With the emergence of a drier climate and vegetation type in Africa during the Eocene, it is likely that a dry-climate adapted lineage from the Daniellia clade ancestor could have dispersed through suitable savannah or woodland regions to reach Madagascar, subsequently giving rise to the savannah-adapted ancestor of Brandzeia and Neoapaloxylon in the Early Miocene. The African rainforest lineage gave rise to the genus Daniellia, which is postulated to have first diversified in the Middle Miocene, while savannah species of Daniellia emerged independently during the Pliocene, coinciding with the global rise of C4-dominated grasslands. More than half of the species in the Daniellia clade are near threatened or threatened, which highlights the need to understand the threats of anthropogenic pressures and climate change these species are facing to prioritise their conservation.

Assessing the utility of conserving evolutionary history

It is often claimed that conserving evolutionary history is more efficient than species-based approaches for capturing the attributes of biodiversity that benefit people. This claim underpins academic analyses and recommendations about the distribution and prioritization of species and areas for conservation, but evolutionary history is rarely considered in practical conservation activities. One impediment to implementation is that arguments related to the human-centric benefits of evolutionary history are often vague and the underlying mechanisms poorly explored. Herein we identify the arguments linking the prioritization of evolutionary history with benefits to people, and for each we explicate the purported mechanism, and evaluate its theoretical and empirical support. We find that, even after 25 years of academic research, the strength of evidence linking evolutionary history to human benefits is still fragile. Most - but not all - arguments rely on the assumption that evolutionary history is a useful surrogate for phenotypic diversity. This surrogacy relationship in turn underlies additional arguments, particularly that, by capturing more phenotypic diversity, evolutionary history will preserve greater ecosystem functioning, capture more of the natural variety that humans prefer, and allow the maintenance of future benefits to humans. A surrogate relationship between evolutionary history and phenotypic diversity appears reasonable given theoretical and empirical results, but the strength of this relationship varies greatly. To the extent that evolutionary history captures unmeasured phenotypic diversity, maximizing the representation of evolutionary history should capture variation in species characteristics that are otherwise unknown, supporting some of the existing arguments. However, there is great variation in the strength and availability of evidence for benefits associated with protecting phenotypic diversity. There are many studies finding positive biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationships, but little work exists on the maintenance of future benefits or the degree to which humans prefer sets of species with high phenotypic diversity or evolutionary history. Although several arguments link the protection of evolutionary history directly with the reduction of extinction rates, and with the production of relatively greater future biodiversity via increased adaptation or diversification, there are few direct tests. Several of these putative benefits have mismatches between the relevant spatial scales for conservation actions and the spatial scales at which benefits to humans are realized. It will be important for future work to fill in some of these gaps through direct tests of the arguments we define here.

Species characteristics affect local extinctions

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

Human activities threaten thousands of species with extinction. However, it remains difficult to predict extinction risk for many vulnerable species. Species traits, species characteristics such as rarity or habitat use, and phylogenetic patterns are associated with responses to anthropogenic environmental change and may help predict likelihood of extinction.

METHODS

We used historical botanical data from Kalamazoo County, Michigan, USA, to examine whether species traits (growth form, life history, nitrogen-fixation, photosynthetic pathway), species characteristics (community association, species origin, range edge, habitat specialization, rarity), or phylogenetic relatedness explain local species loss at the county level.

KEY RESULTS

Across Kalamazoo County, prairie species, species at the edge of their native range, regionally rare species, and habitat specialists were most likely to become locally extinct. Prairie species experienced the highest local extinction rates of any habitat type, and among prairie species, regionally rare and specialist species were most vulnerable to loss. We found no evidence for a phylogenetic pattern in plant extinctions.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study illustrates the value of historical datasets for understanding and potentially predicting biodiversity loss. Not surprisingly, rare, specialist species occupying threatened habitats are most at risk of local extinction. As a result, identifying mechanisms to conserve or restore rare or declining species and preventing further habitat destruction may be the most effective strategies for reducing future extinction.

The macroecology and macroevolution of plant species at risk

Contents Summary 708 I. Introduction 708 II. Fossils and phylogenies: learning from our past 708 III. Threatened species and Red Lists 710 IV. The geography of threat 710 V. The taxonomy of threat 710 VI. Predicting species at risk 711 VII. Conclusion 711 Acknowledgements 712 References 712 SUMMARY: Current rates of extinction are unprecedented in human history. The fossil record and newer molecular phylogenies illuminate historical patterns of speciation and extinction. They reveal both spectacular radiations and the characteristic features of mass extinction events in our geological past. The IUCN Red List provides insight into present-day species declines. There is emerging synthesis that species at risk are nonrandomly distributed across space and phylogeny. This pattern may be explained by geographical variation in driver intensity and species differential sensitivities. However, traits that confer resistance to one global change driver may increase susceptibility to a different driver. A complete understanding of extinction risk requires consideration of the interaction between extinction drivers, ecological traits, and species' evolutionary histories.

Macroevolutionary diversification rates show time dependency

For centuries, biologists have been captivated by the vast disparity in species richness between different groups of organisms. Variation in diversity is widely attributed to differences between groups in how fast they speciate or go extinct. Such macroevolutionary rates have been estimated for thousands of groups and have been correlated with an incredible variety of organismal traits. Here we analyze a large collection of phylogenetic trees and fossil time series and describe a hidden generality among these seemingly idiosyncratic results: speciation and extinction rates follow a scaling law in which both depend on the age of the group in which they are measured, with the fastest rates in the youngest clades. Using a series of simulations and sensitivity analyses, we demonstrate that the time dependency is unlikely to be a result of simple statistical artifacts. As such, this time scaling is likely a genuine feature of the tree of life, hinting that the dynamics of biodiversity over deep time may be driven in part by surprisingly simple and general principles.

The Deep Past Controls the Phylogenetic Structure of Present, Local Communities

Coexisting species may be evolutionarily proximate or distant, resulting in phylogenetically poor or rich communities. This variation is often considered to result from present assembly processes. We argue that, under certain conditions, deep-past processes might control the phylogenetic diversity of communities. First, deep-past effects involve macroevolutionary processes, such as diversification rate, niche conservatism, or dispersal, in the lineages that constitute communities. Second, deep-past processes in the respective region or in the habitat type play a role, for instance, through age, area, stability, or connectivity. Third, the deep past may affect communities via trophic interactions (i.e., communities of enemies or mutualists or communities of hosts). We suggest that deep-past effects can be identified in local communities by measuring phylogenetic diversity in different species pools. We also show how community phylogenetic diversity results in positive or negative eco-evolutionary feedback, and we identify present-day conservation challenges that may profit from a deep-time perspective.

Macroevolutionary Patterns of Flowering Plant Speciation and Extinction

Species diversity is remarkably unevenly distributed among flowering plant lineages. Despite a growing toolbox of research methods, the reasons underlying this patchy pattern have continued to perplex plant biologists for the past two decades. In this review, we examine the present understanding of transitions in flowering plant evolution that have been proposed to influence speciation and extinction. In particular, ploidy changes, transitions between tropical and nontropical biomes, and shifts in floral form have received attention and have offered some surprises in terms of which factors influence speciation and extinction rates. Mating systems and dispersal characteristics once predominated as determining factors, yet recent evidence suggests that these changes are not as influential as previously thought or are important only when paired with range shifts. Although range extent is an important correlate of speciation, it also influences extinction and brings an applied focus to diversification research. Recent studies that find that past diversification can predict present-day extinction risk open an exciting avenue for future research to help guide conservation prioritization.

Understanding the Processes Underpinning Patterns of Phylogenetic Regionalization

A key step in understanding the distribution of biodiversity is the grouping of regions based on their shared elements. Historically, regionalization schemes have been largely species centric. Recently, there has been interest in incorporating phylogenetic information into regionalization schemes. Phylogenetic regionalization can provide novel insights into the mechanisms that generate, distribute, and maintain biodiversity. We argue that four processes (dispersal limitation, extinction, speciation, and niche conservatism) underlie the formation of species assemblages into phylogenetically distinct biogeographic units. We outline how it can be possible to distinguish among these processes, and identify centers of evolutionary radiation, museums of diversity, and extinction hotspots. We suggest that phylogenetic regionalization provides a rigorous and objective classification of regional diversity and enhances our knowledge of biodiversity patterns.

Factors driving the global decline of cycad diversity

Mounting evidence indicates that we are witnessing the sixth mass extinction period. Given the important goods and services biodiversity delivers to humans, there is a need for a continued commitment to investigate what pre-disposes some taxa to greater risk of extinction. Here, we investigate this question using a phylogenetic comparative method and fitting a cumulative link mixed effect model on biological, ecological and evolutionary data of cycads, the most threatened lineage in the plant kingdom. We identified nine groups of threats to cycads, with habitat loss, over-collection, fire and reproduction failure being the most prominent, but only four of these threats (habitat loss, over-collection, medicinal uses and reproduction failure) clustered on the cycad tree of life. This clustering suggests that closely related species may be exposed to similar threats, perhaps because of geographic regionalization of cycad genera. Nonetheless, the diversity of threats and several variables linked to the biology and ecology of cycads correlate with extinction risk (e.g. altitude, height, diameter, geographic range), and different variables seem to be linked to different IUCN status of cycads. Although their predictive power is generally < 50 %, geographic range and maximum diameter stood out as the best predictors particularly for the Vulnerable (VU) category, with a predictive power of 87 % and 69 %, respectively. Using our best model for VU, we predicted all five Data Deficient (DD) species of cycads to be in the VU category. Collectively, our results elucidate the pattern of extinction risk in cycads and, since most threats that we identified as drivers of extinction risk of cycads are anthropogenically mediated, we recommend stronger legislation to regulate human-cycad interactions and the commitment of all governments globally to implement this regulation.

Insights on the evolutionary origin of Detarioideae, a clade of ecologically dominant tropical African trees

African tropical forests are generally considered less diverse than their Neotropical and Asian counterparts. By contrast, the Detarioideae is much more diverse in Africa than in South America and Asia. To better understand the evolution of this contrasting diversity pattern, we investigated the biogeographical and ecological origin of this subfamily, testing whether they originated in dry biomes surrounding the Tethys Seaway as currently hypothesized for many groups of Leguminosae. We constructed the largest time-calibrated phylogeny for the subfamily to date, reconstructed ancestral states for geography and biome/habitat, estimated diversification and extinction rates, and evaluated biome/habitat and geographic shifts in Detarioideae. The ancestral habitat of Detarioideae is postulated to be a primary forest (terra firme) originated in Africa-South America, in the early Palaeocene, after which several biome/habitat and geographic shifts occurred. The origin of Detarioideae is older than previous estimates, which postulated a dry (succulent) biome origin according to the Tethys Seaway hypothesis, and instead we reveal a post Gondwana and terra firme origin for this early branching clade of legumes. Detarioideae include some of the most dominant trees in evergreen forests and have likely played a pivotal role in shaping continental African forest diversity.

Linking speciation to extinction: Diversification raises contemporary extinction risk in amphibians

Many of the traits associated with elevated rates of speciation, including niche specialization and having small and isolated populations, are similarly linked with an elevated risk of extinction. This suggests that rapidly speciating lineages may also be more extinction prone. Empirical tests of a speciation-extinction correlation are rare because assessing paleontological extinction rates is difficult. However, the modern biodiversity crisis allows us to observe patterns of extinction in real time, and if this hypothesis is true then we would expect young clades that have recently diversified to have high contemporary extinction risk. Here, we examine evolutionary patterns of modern extinction risk across over 300 genera within one of the most threatened vertebrate classes, the Amphibia. Consistent with predictions, rapidly diversifying amphibian clades also had a greater share of threatened species. Curiously, this pattern is not reflected in other tetrapod classes and may reflect a greater propensity to speciate through peripheral isolation in amphibians, which is partly supported by a negative correlation between diversification rate and mean geographic range size. This clustered threat in rapidly diversifying amphibian genera means that protecting a small number of species can achieve large gains in preserving amphibian phylogenetic diversity. Nonindependence between speciation and extinction rates has many consequences for patterns of biodiversity and how we may choose to conserve it.

Phylogenetic perspectives on reef fish functional traits

Functional traits have been fundamental to the evolution and diversification of entire fish lineages on coral reefs. Yet their relationship with the processes promoting speciation, extinction and the filtering of local species pools remains unclear. We review the current literature exploring the evolution of diet, body size, water column use and geographic range size in reef-associated fishes. Using published and new data, we mapped functional traits on to published phylogenetic trees to uncover evolutionary patterns that have led to the current functional diversity of fishes on coral reefs. When examining reconstructed patterns for diet and feeding mode, we found examples of independent transitions to planktivory across different reef fish families. Such transitions and associated morphological alterations may represent cases in which ecological opportunity for the exploitation of different resources drives speciation and adaptation. In terms of body size, reconstructions showed that both large and small sizes appear multiple times within clades of mid-sized fishes and that extreme body sizes have arisen mostly in the last 10 million years (Myr). The reconstruction of range size revealed many cases of disparate range sizes among sister species. Such range size disparity highlights potential vicariant processes through isolation in peripheral locations. When accounting for peripheral speciation processes in sister pairs, we found a significant relationship between labrid range size and lineage age. The diversity and evolution of traits within lineages is influenced by trait-environment interactions as well as by species and trait-trait interactions, where the presence of a given trait may trigger the development of related traits or behaviours. Our effort to assess the evolution of functional diversity across reef fish clades adds to the burgeoning research focusing on the evolutionary and ecological roles of functional traits. We argue that the combination of a phylogenetic and a functional approach will improve the understanding of the mechanisms of species assembly in extraordinarily rich coral reef communities.

Integrating biogeography, threat and evolutionary data to explore extinction crisis in the taxonomic group of cycads

Will the ongoing extinction crisis cause a severe loss of evolutionary information accumulated over millions of years on the tree of life? This question has been largely explored, particularly for vertebrates and angiosperms. However, no equivalent effort has been devoted to gymnosperms. Here, we address this question focusing on cycads, the gymnosperm group exhibiting the highest proportion of threatened species in the plant kingdom. We assembled the first complete phylogeny of cycads and assessed how species loss under three scenarios would impact the cycad tree of life. These scenarios are as follows: (1) All top 50% of evolutionarily distinct (ED) species are lost; (2) all threatened species are lost; and (3) only all threatened species in each IUCN category are lost. Finally, we analyzed the biogeographical pattern of cycad diversity hotspots and tested for gaps in the current global conservation network. First, we showed that threatened species are not significantly clustered on the cycad tree of life. Second, we showed that the loss of all vulnerable or endangered species does not depart significantly from random loss. In contrast, the loss of all top 50% ED, all threatened or all critically endangered species, would result in a greater loss of PD (Phylogenetic Diversity) than expected. To inform conservation decisions, we defined five hotpots of diversity, and depending on the diversity metric used, these hotspots are located in Southern Africa, Australia, Indo‐Pacific, and Mexico and all are found within protected areas. We conclude that the phylogenetic diversity accumulated over millions of years in the cycad tree of life would not survive the current extinction crisis. As such, prioritizing efforts based on ED and concentrating efforts on critically endangered species particularly in southern Africa, Australia, Indo‐Pacific, and Mexico are required to safeguarding the evolutionary diversity in the cycad tree of life.

Benefits from living together? Clades whose species use similar habitats may persist as a result of eco-evolutionary feedbacks

Contents 66 I. 67 II. 68 III. 69 IV. 70 V. 73 VI. 75 VII. 77 78 References 78 SUMMARY: Recent decades have seen declines of entire plant clades while other clades persist despite changing environments. We suggest that one reason why some clades persist is that species within these clades use similar habitats, because such similarity may increase the degree of co-occurrence of species within clades. Traditionally, co-occurrence among clade members has been suggested to be disadvantageous because of increased competition and enemy pressure. Here, we hypothesize that increased co-occurrence among clade members promotes mutualist exchange, niche expansion or hybridization, thereby helping species avoid population decline from environmental change. We review the literature and analyse published data for hundreds of plant clades (genera) within a well-studied region and find major differences in the degree to which species within clades occupy similar habitats. We tentatively show that, in clades for which species occupy similar habitats, species tend to exhibit increased co-occurrence, mutualism, niche expansion, and hybridization - and rarely decline. Consistently, throughout the geological past, clades whose species occupied similar habitats often persisted through long time-spans. Overall, for many plant species, the occupation of similar habitats among fellow clade members apparently reduced their vulnerability to environmental change. Future research should identify when and how this previously unrecognized eco-evolutionary feedback operates.

Keeping All the PIECES: Phylogenetically Informed Ex Situ Conservation of Endangered Species

Ex situ conservation in germplasm and living collections is a major focus of global plant conservation strategies. Prioritizing species for ex situ collection is a necessary component of this effort for which sound strategies are needed. Phylogenetic considerations can play an important role in prioritization. Collections that are more phylogenetically diverse are likely to encompass more ecological and trait variation, and thus provide stronger conservation insurance and richer resources for future restoration efforts. However, phylogenetic criteria need to be weighed against other, potentially competing objectives. We used ex situ collection and threat rank data for North American angiosperms to investigate gaps in ex situ coverage and phylogenetic diversity of collections and to develop a flexible framework for prioritizing species across multiple objectives. We found that ex situ coverage of 18,766 North American angiosperm taxa was low with respect to the most vulnerable taxa: just 43% of vulnerable to critically imperiled taxa were in ex situ collections, far short of a year-2020 goal of 75%. In addition, species held in ex situ collections were phylogenetically clustered (P < 0.001), i.e., collections comprised less phylogenetic diversity than would be expected had species been drawn at random. These patterns support incorporating phylogenetic considerations into ex situ prioritization in a manner balanced with other criteria, such as vulnerability. To meet this need, we present the ‘PIECES’ index (Phylogenetically Informed Ex situ Conservation of Endangered Species). PIECES integrates phylogenetic considerations into a flexible framework for prioritizing species across competing objectives using multi-criteria decision analysis. Applying PIECES to prioritizing ex situ conservation of North American angiosperms, we show strong return on investment across multiple objectives, some of which are negatively correlated with each other. A spreadsheet-based decision support tool for North American angiosperms is provided; this tool can be customized to align with different conservation objectives.

High functional diversity stimulates diversification in experimental microbial communities

There is a growing awareness that biodiversity not only drives ecosystem services but also affects evolutionary dynamics. However, different theories predict contrasting outcomes on when do evolutionary processes occur within a context of competition. We tested whether functional diversity can explain diversification patterns. We tracked the survival and diversification of a focal bacterial species (Pseudomonas fluorescens) growing in bacterial communities of variable diversity and composition. We found that high functional diversity reduced the fitness of the focal species and, at the same time, fostered its diversification. This pattern was linked to resource competition: High diversity increased competition on a portion of the resources while leaving most underexploited. The evolved phenotypes of the focal species showed a better use of underexploited resources, albeit at a cost of lower overall growth rates. As a result, diversification alleviated the impact of competition on the fitness of the focal species. We conclude that biodiversity can stimulate evolutionary diversification, provided that sufficient alternative niches are available.

Spatial, Phylogenetic, Environmental and Biological Components of Variation in Extinction Risk: A Case Study Using Banksia

Comparative analyses of extinction risk routinely apply methods that account for phylogenetic non-independence, but few analyses of extinction risk have addressed the possibility of spatial non-independence. We explored patterns of extinction risk in Banksia, a plant genus largely endemic to Australia’s southwest biodiversity hotspot, using methods to partition the variance in two response variables (threat status and range size) into phylogenetic, spatial, and independent components. We then estimated the effects of a number of biological and external predictors on extinction risk independently of phylogeny and space. The models explained up to 34.2% of the variation in range size and up to 9.7% of the variation in threat status, nearly all of which was accounted for by the predictors, not by phylogeny or space. In the case of Banksia, therefore, high extinction risk can be clearly linked with biological syndromes (such as a brief flowering period) or geographic indicators of human impact (such as extensive habitat loss), but cannot be predicted from phylogenetic relatedness or geographic proximity.

High levels of genetic diversity and population structure in an endemic and rare species: implications for conservation

The analysis of genetic structure and variability of isolated species is of critical importance in evaluating whether stochastic or human-caused factors are affecting rare species. Low genetic diversity compromises the ability of populations to evolve and reduces their chances of survival under environmental changes. Petunia secreta, a rare and endemic species, is an annual and heliophilous herb that is bee-pollinated and easily recognizable by its purple and salverform corolla. It was described as a new species of the Petunia genus in 2005. Few individuals of P. secreta have been observed in nature and little is known about this species. All the natural populations of P. secreta that were found were studied using 15 microsatellite loci, two intergenic plastid sequences and morphological traits. Statistical analysis was performed to describe the genetic diversity of this rare species and the results compared with those of more widespread and frequent Petunia species from the same geographic area to understand whether factors associated with population size could affect rare species of this genus. The results showed that despite its rarity, P. secreta presented high genetic diversity that was equivalent to or even higher than that of widespread Petunia species. It was shown that this species is divided into two evolutionary lineages, and the genetic differentiation indices between them and other congeneric species presented different patterns. The major risk to P. secreta maintenance is its rarity, suggesting the necessity of a preservation programme and more biological and evolutionary studies that handle the two evolutionary lineages independently.

Predicting loss of evolutionary history: Where are we?

The Earth's evolutionary history is threatened by species loss in the current sixth mass extinction event in Earth's history. Such extinction events not only eliminate species but also their unique evolutionary histories. Here we review the expected loss of Earth's evolutionary history quantified by phylogenetic diversity (PD) and evolutionary distinctiveness (ED) at risk. Due to the general paucity of data, global evolutionary history losses have been predicted for only a few groups, such as mammals, birds, amphibians, plants, corals and fishes. Among these groups, there is now empirical support that extinction threats are clustered on the phylogeny; however this is not always a sufficient condition to cause higher loss of phylogenetic diversity in comparison to a scenario of random extinctions. Extinctions of the most evolutionarily distinct species and the shape of phylogenetic trees are additional factors that can elevate losses of evolutionary history. Consequently, impacts of species extinctions differ among groups and regions, and even if global losses are low within large groups, losses can be high among subgroups or within some regions. Further, we show that PD and ED are poorly protected by current conservation practices. While evolutionary history can be indirectly protected by current conservation schemes, optimizing its preservation requires integrating phylogenetic indices with those that capture rarity and extinction risk. Measures based on PD and ED could bring solutions to conservation issues, however they are still rarely used in practice, probably because the reasons to protect evolutionary history are not clear for practitioners or due to a lack of data. However, important advances have been made in the availability of phylogenetic trees and methods for their construction, as well as assessments of extinction risk. Some challenges remain, and looking forward, research should prioritize the assessment of expected PD and ED loss for more taxonomic groups and test the assumption that preserving ED and PD also protects rare species and ecosystem services. Such research will be useful to inform and guide the conservation of Earth's biodiversity and the services it provides.

Incorporating evolutionary history into conservation planning in biodiversity hotspots

There is increased evidence that incorporating evolutionary history directly in conservation actions is beneficial, particularly given the likelihood that extinction is not random and that phylogenetic diversity (PD) is lost at higher rates than species diversity. This evidence is even more compelling in biodiversity hotspots, such as Madagascar, where less than 10% of the original vegetation remains. Here, we use the Leguminosae, an ecologically and economically important plant family, and a combination of phylogenetics and species distribution modelling, to assess biodiversity patterns and identify regions, coevolutionary processes and ecological factors that are important in shaping this diversity, especially during the Quaternary. We show evidence that species distribution and community PD are predicted by watershed boundaries, which enable the identification of a network of refugia and dispersal corridors that were perhaps important for maintaining community integrity during past climate change. Phylogenetically clustered communities are found in the southwest of the island at low elevation and share a suite of morphological characters (especially fruit morphology) indicative of coevolution with their main dispersers, the extinct and extant lemurs. Phylogenetically over-dispersed communities are found along the eastern coast at sea level and may have resulted from many independent dispersal events from the drier and more seasonal regions of Madagascar.

Losing history: how extinctions prune features from the tree of life

Biodiversity provides many valuable services to humanity; however, rapid expansion of the human population has placed increasing pressure on natural systems, and it has been suggested that we may be entering a sixth mass extinction. There is an urgent need, therefore, to prioritize conservation efforts if we are to maintain the provisioning of such service in the future. Phylogenetic diversity (PD), the summed branch lengths that connect species on the tree-of-life, might provide a valuable metric for conservation prioritization because it has been argued to capture feature diversity. Frequently, PD is estimated in millions of years, and therefore implicitly assumes an evolutionary model in which features diverge gradually over time. Here, I explore the expected loss of feature diversity when this assumption is violated. If evolution tends to slow down over time, as might be the case following adaptive radiations, losses of feature diversity might be relatively small. However, if evolution occurs in rapid bursts, following a punctuated model, impacts of extinctions might be much greater. PD captures many important properties, but if we use it as a proxy for feature diversity, we first need to ensure that we have the correct evolutionary model.

Maximizing the phylogenetic diversity of seed banks

Ex situ conservation efforts such as those of zoos, botanical gardens, and seed banks will form a vital complement to in situ conservation actions over the coming decades. It is therefore necessary to pay the same attention to the biological diversity represented in ex situ conservation facilities as is often paid to protected-area networks. Building the phylogenetic diversity of ex situ collections will strengthen our capacity to respond to biodiversity loss. Since 2000, the Millennium Seed Bank Partnership has banked seed from 14% of the world's plant species. We assessed the taxonomic, geographic, and phylogenetic diversity of the Millennium Seed Bank collection of legumes (Leguminosae). We compared the collection with all known legume genera, their known geographic range (at country and regional levels), and a genus-level phylogeny of the legume family constructed for this study. Over half the phylogenetic diversity of legumes at the genus level was represented in the Millennium Seed Bank. However, pragmatic prioritization of species of economic importance and endangerment has led to the banking of a less-than-optimal phylogenetic diversity and prioritization of range-restricted species risks an underdispersed collection. The current state of the phylogenetic diversity of legumes in the Millennium Seed Bank could be substantially improved through the strategic banking of relatively few additional taxa. Our method draws on tools that are widely applied to in situ conservation planning, and it can be used to evaluate and improve the phylogenetic diversity of ex situ collections.

Multiple drivers of decline in the global status of freshwater crayfish (Decapoda: Astacidea)

Rates of biodiversity loss are higher in freshwater ecosystems than in most terrestrial or marine ecosystems, making freshwater conservation a priority. However, prioritization methods are impeded by insufficient knowledge on the distribution and conservation status of freshwater taxa, particularly invertebrates. We evaluated the extinction risk of the world's 590 freshwater crayfish species using the IUCN Categories and Criteria and found 32% of all species are threatened with extinction. The level of extinction risk differed between families, with proportionally more threatened species in the Parastacidae and Astacidae than in the Cambaridae. Four described species were Extinct and 21% were assessed as Data Deficient. There was geographical variation in the dominant threats affecting the main centres of crayfish diversity. The majority of threatened US and Mexican species face threats associated with urban development, pollution, damming and water management. Conversely, the majority of Australian threatened species are affected by climate change, harvesting, agriculture and invasive species. Only a small proportion of crayfish are found within the boundaries of protected areas, suggesting that alternative means of long-term protection will be required. Our study highlights many of the significant challenges yet to come for freshwater biodiversity unless conservation planning shifts from a reactive to proactive approach.

Predicting extinction risk of Brazilian Atlantic forest angiosperms

Understanding how plant life history affects species vulnerability to anthropogenic disturbances and environmental change is a major ecological challenge. We examined how vegetation type, growth form, and geographic range size relate to extinction risk throughout the Brazilian Atlantic Forest domain. We used a database containing species-level information of 6,929 angiosperms within 112 families and a molecular-based working phylogeny. We used decision trees, standard regression, and phylogenetic regression to explore the relationships between species attributes and extinction risk. We found a significant phylogenetic signal in extinction risk. Vegetation type, growth form, and geographic range size were related to species extinction risk, but the effect of growth form was not evident after phylogeny was controlled for. Species restricted to either rocky outcrops or scrub vegetation on sandy coastal plains exhibited the highest extinction risk among vegetation types, a finding that supports the hypothesis that species adapted to resource-limited environments are more vulnerable to extinction. Among growth forms, epiphytes were associated with the highest extinction risk in non-phylogenetic regression models, followed by trees, whereas shrubs and climbers were associated with lower extinction risk. However, the higher extinction risk of epiphytes was not significant after correcting for phylogenetic relatedness. Our findings provide new indicators of extinction risk and insights into the mechanisms governing plant vulnerability to extinction in a highly diverse flora where human disturbances are both frequent and widespread.