Selection in reported epidemiological risks: an empirical assessment

Exposome-Wide Ranking to Uncover Environmental Chemicals Associated with Dyslipidemia: A Panel Study in Healthy Older Chinese Adults from the BAPE Study

BACKGROUND

Environmental contaminants (ECs) are increasingly recognized as crucial drivers of dyslipidemia and cardiovascular disease (CVD), but the comprehensive impact spectrum and interlinking mechanisms remain uncertain.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to systematically evaluate the association between exposure to 80 ECs across seven divergent categories and markers of dyslipidemia and investigate their underpinning biomolecular mechanisms via an unbiased integrative approach of internal chemical exposome and multi-omics.

METHODS

A longitudinal study involving 76 healthy older adults was conducted in Jinan, China, and participants were followed five times from 10 September 2018 to 19 January 2019 in 1-month intervals. A broad spectrum of seven chemical categories covering the prototypes and metabolites of 102 ECs in serum or urine as well as six serum dyslipidemia markers [total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, apolipoprotein (Apo)A1, ApoB, and ApoE4] were measured. Multi-omics, including the blood transcriptome, serum/urine metabolome, and serum lipidome, were profiled concurrently. Exposome-wide association study and the deletion/substitution/addition algorithms were applied to explore the associations between 80 EC exposures detection frequency > 50 % and dyslipidemia markers. Weighted quantile sum regression was used to assess the mixture effects and relative contributions. Multi-omics profiling, causal inference model, and pathway analysis were conducted to interpret the mediating biomolecules and underlying mechanisms. Examination of cytokines and electrocardiograms was further conducted to validate the observed associations and biomolecular pathways.

RESULTS

Eight main ECs [1-naphthalene, 1-pyrene, 2-fluorene, dibutyl phosphate, tri-phenyl phosphate, mono-(2-ethyl-5-hydroxyhexyl) phthalate, chromium, and vanadium] were significantly associated with most dyslipidemia markers. Multi-omics indicated that the associations were mediated by endogenous biomolecules and pathways, primarily pertinent to CVD, inflammation, and metabolism. Clinical measures of cytokines and electrocardiograms further cross-validated the association of these exogenous ECs with systemic inflammation and cardiac function, demonstrating their potential mechanisms in driving dyslipidemia pathogenesis.

DISCUSSION

It is imperative to prioritize mitigating exposure to these ECs in the primary prevention and control of the dyslipidemia epidemic. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP13864.

Misstatements, misperceptions, and mistakes in controlling for covariates in observational research

We discuss 12 misperceptions, misstatements, or mistakes concerning the use of covariates in observational or nonrandomized research. Additionally, we offer advice to help investigators, editors, reviewers, and readers make more informed decisions about conducting and interpreting research where the influence of covariates may be at issue. We primarily address misperceptions in the context of statistical management of the covariates through various forms of modeling, although we also emphasize design and model or variable selection. Other approaches to addressing the effects of covariates, including matching, have logical extensions from what we discuss here but are not dwelled upon heavily. The misperceptions, misstatements, or mistakes we discuss include accurate representation of covariates, effects of measurement error, overreliance on covariate categorization, underestimation of power loss when controlling for covariates, misinterpretation of significance in statistical models, and misconceptions about confounding variables, selecting on a collider, and p value interpretations in covariate-inclusive analyses. This condensed overview serves to correct common errors and improve research quality in general and in nutrition research specifically.

The causality between Type 2 diabetes and breast cancer: a bidirectional two-sample Mendelian randomization study

Objective: Observational studies showed that Type 2 diabetes increased the risk of breast cancer, and vice versa. However, it is uncertain whether the link is causal or just due to confounding factors. Using bidirectional Mendelian randomization analysis, we assessed the bidirectional causal relationship from a genetic level. Methods: Large genome-wide association studies yielded summary-level data for Type 2 diabetes and breast cancer. Results: Genetically predicted Type 2 diabetes presented no statistically significant association with overall breast cancer or its subtypes. Similarly, genetically predicted overall breast cancer or its subtypes had no causal effect on Type 2 diabetes. Sensitivity analyses yielded similar results. Conclusion: Our bidirectional Mendelian randomization studies revealed no causal links between Type 2 diabetes and breast cancer.

Diabetes and anti-diabetic interventions and the risk of gynaecological and obstetric morbidity: an umbrella review of the literature

BACKGROUND

Diabetes has reached epidemic proportions in recent years with serious health ramifications. The aim of this study was to evaluate the strength and validity of associations between diabetes and anti-diabetic interventions and the risk of any type of gynaecological or obstetric conditions.

METHODS

Design: Umbrella review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed, Medline, Embase, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, manual screening of references.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Systematic reviews and meta-analyses of observational and interventional studies investigating the relationship between diabetes and anti-diabetic interventions with gynaecological or obstetric outcomes. Meta-analyses that did not include complete data from individual studies, such as relative risk, 95% confidence intervals, number of cases/controls, or total population were excluded.

DATA ANALYSIS

The evidence from meta-analyses of observational studies was graded as strong, highly suggestive, suggestive or weak according to criteria comprising the random effects estimate of meta-analyses and their largest study, the number of cases, 95% prediction intervals, I2 heterogeneity index between studies, excess significance bias, small study effect and sensitivity analysis using credibility ceilings. Interventional meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials were assessed separately based on the statistical significance of reported associations, the risk of bias and quality of evidence (GRADE) of included meta-analyses.

RESULTS

A total of 117 meta-analyses of observational cohort studies and 200 meta-analyses of randomised clinical trials that evaluated 317 outcomes were included. Strong or highly suggestive evidence only supported a positive association between gestational diabetes and caesarean section, large for gestational age babies, major congenital malformations and heart defects and an inverse relationship between metformin use and ovarian cancer incidence. Only a fifth of the randomised controlled trials investigating the effect of anti-diabetic interventions on women's health reached statistical significance and highlighted metformin as a more effective agent than insulin on risk reduction of adverse obstetric outcomes in both gestational and pre-gestational diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

Gestational diabetes appears to be strongly associated with a high risk of caesarean section and large for gestational age babies. Weaker associations were demonstrated between diabetes and anti-diabetic interventions with other obstetric and gynaecological outcomes.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Open Science Framework (OSF) (Registration https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/9G6AB ).

Efficacy and safety of ceftazidime-avibactam compared to other antimicrobials for the treatment of infections caused by carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae strains, a systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (CRKP) infections are a significant public health issue. CRKP infections can increase the mortality of severely ill hospitalised patients and elevate the financial burden of their hospitalisation globally. Colistin and tigecycline are the main antimicrobials which have been widely used for the treatment of CRKP infections. However, novel antimicrobials have been recently launched. Ceftazidime-avibactam (CAZ-AVI) seems one of the most efficient ones.

AIM

The aim of the current systematic literature review and meta-analysis is to assess the efficacy and safety of CAZ-AVI compared to other antimicrobials in adult patients (aged >18) with CRKP infection.

METHODS

All data were retrieved using PubMed/Medline, the Web of Science and Cochrane library. The main outcome was the effective treatment of CRKP infection or the microbiological eradication of CRKP in the culture of biological samples. Secondary outcomes included the impact on 28- or 30-day mortality and adverse effects, if available. Pooled analysis was conducted using Review Manager v. 5.4.1 software (RevMan). The level of statistical significance was set at p < 0.05.

RESULTS

CAZ-AVI was proved more effective than other antimicrobials against CRKP infections and CRKP bloodstream infections (p < 0.00001 and p < 0.0001, respectively). Patients in the CAZ-AVI arm displayed statistically lower 28- and 30-day mortality rates (p = 0.002 and p < 0.00001, respectively). Concerning the microbiological eradication, no meta-analysis was feasible due to high heterogeneity.

CONCLUSION

The promotion of CAZ-AVI for treating CRKP infections over other antimicrobials seems favourable. However, there is a long way ahead to reveal additional scientific findings to further strengthen this statement.

Risk of Dementia in Cancer Survivors: A Meta-Analysis of Population-Based Cohort Studies

Background: A negative association between cancer and Alzheimer’s disease (AD) was revealed. Objective: We aimed to further explore the dementia risk among cancer survivors and then among cancer survivors who received cancer treatment in subsequent subgroup analyses. Methods: Databases of PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Library were systematically searched from inception to April 1, 2021, following PRISMA and MOOSE guidelines. Relative risks (RR) of dementia were pooled by a random-effects model stratifying the data by potential confounding factors to explore the heterogeneity. This study is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42021250654. Results: A total of 36 studies were included in this meta-analysis, of which 16 studies were about the risk of dementia in cancer survivors, and 20 studies were about the risk of dementia in survivors who accepted cancer treatment. The pooled RR reached 0.89 ([95% CI = 0.82–0.97], I2 = 97.9%) for dementia and 0.89 ([0.83–0.95], I2 = 92.6%) for AD in cancer survivors compared with non-cancer controls. Notably, both dementia risk and AD risk significantly decreased in survivors of colon, leukemia, small intestine, and thyroid cancers (RR ranged from 0.64 to 0.92). Furthermore, prostate cancer patients treated with androgen deprivation therapy exhibited a significantly increased risk of dementia (RR:1.18 [1.09–1.27], I2 = 89.5%) and AD (RR:1.17 [1.08–1.25], I2 = 81.3%), with evidence of between-study heterogeneity. Conclusion: Currently, available evidence suggests that the risk of dementia among cancer survivors is decreased. However, large-scale prospective cohort studies are warranted to further prove the association.

Retrospective median power, false positive meta-analysis and large-scale replication

Recent, high-profile, large-scale, preregistered failures to replicate uncover that many highly-regarded experiments are "false positives"; that is, statistically significant results of underlying null effects. Large surveys of research reveal that statistical power is often low and inadequate. When the research record includes selective reporting, publication bias and/or questionable research practices, conventional meta-analyses are also likely to be falsely positive. At the core of research credibility lies the relation of statistical power to the rate of false positives. This study finds that high (>50%-60%) median retrospective power (MRP) is associated with credible meta-analysis and large-scale, preregistered, multi-lab "successful" replications; that is, with replications that corroborate the effect in question. When median retrospective power is low (<50%), positive meta-analysis findings should be interpreted with great caution or discounted altogether.

Use of E-values for addressing confounding in observational studies-an empirical assessment of the literature

BACKGROUND

E-values are a recently introduced approach to evaluate confounding in observational studies. We aimed to empirically assess the current use of E-values in published literature.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic literature search for all publications, published up till the end of 2018, which cited at least one of two inceptive E-value papers and presented E-values for original data. For these case publications we identified control publications, matched by journal and issue, where the authors had not calculated E-values.

RESULTS

In total, 87 papers presented 516 E-values. Of the 87 papers, 14 concluded that residual confounding likely threatens at least some of the main conclusions. Seven of these 14 named potential uncontrolled confounders. 19 of 87 papers related E-value magnitudes to expected strengths of field-specific confounders. The median E-value was 1.88, 1.82, and 2.02 for the 43, 348, and 125 E-values where confounding was felt likely to affect the results, unlikely to affect the results, or not commented upon, respectively. The 69 case-control publication pairs dealt with effect sizes of similar magnitude. Of 69 control publications, 52 did not comment on unmeasured confounding and 44/69 case publications concluded that confounding was unlikely to affect study conclusions.

CONCLUSIONS

Few papers using E-values conclude that confounding threatens their results, and their E-values overlap in magnitude with those of papers acknowledging susceptibility to confounding. Facile automation in calculating E-values may compound the already poor handling of confounding. E-values should not be a substitute for careful consideration of potential sources of unmeasured confounding. If used, they should be interpreted in the context of expected confounding in specific fields.

Effect of low-dose aspirin on health outcomes: An umbrella review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses

AIMS

This study aimed to use an umbrella review methodology to capture the range of outcomes that were associated with low-dose aspirin and to systematically assess the credibility of this evidence.

METHODS

Aspirin is associated with several health outcomes, but the overall benefit/risk balance related to aspirin use is unclear. We searched three major databases up to 15 August 2019 for meta-analyses of observational studies and randomized controlled trials (RCTs) including low-dose aspirin compared to placebo or other treatments. Based on random-effects summary effect sizes, 95% prediction intervals, heterogeneity, small-study effects and excess significance, significant meta-analyses of observational studies were classified from convincing (class I) to weak (class IV). For meta-analyses of RCTs, outcomes with random effects P-value < .005 and a moderate/high GRADE assessment, were classified as strong evidence. From 6802 hits, 67 meta-analyses (156 outcomes) were eligible.

RESULTS

Observational data showed highly suggestive evidence for aspirin use and increased risk of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (RR = 2.28, 95% CI: 1.97-2.64). In RCTs of low-dose aspirin, we observed strong evidence for lower risk of CVD in people without CVD (RR = 0.83; 95% CI: 0.79-0.87) and in general population (RR = 0.83; 95% CI: 0.79-0.89), higher risk of major gastrointestinal (RR = 1.47; 95% CI: 1.26-1.72) and intracranial bleeding (RR = 1.34; 95% CI: 1.18-1.53), and of major bleedings in people without CVD (RR = 1.62; 95% CI: 1.26-2.08).

CONCLUSION

Compared to other active medications, low-dose aspirin had strong evidence for lower risk of bleeding, but also lower comparative efficacy. Low-dose aspirin significantly lowers CVD risk and increases risk of bleeding. Evidence for multiple other health outcomes is limited.

Use of publication procedures to improve research integrity by addiction journals

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The credibility crisis evident in many academic disciplines has led peer-reviewed journals to implement procedures to reduce use of flexible data analysis practices and selective reporting of results. This exploratory study examined the adoption of six of these procedures by addiction journals.

METHODS

Thirty-eight high-impact addiction journals were identified using the 2018 Clarivate Analytics Journal Citation Report for 2017 ranks. The online instructions for authors were reviewed for references to six publication procedures: conflict of interest disclosure, reporting guidelines, clinical trial registration, registration of other study designs, data-sharing and registered reports. The webpages of the Center for Open Science and Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials (CONSORT) were also reviewed for data pertaining to registered reports and reporting guidelines, respectively.

RESULTS

The range of procedures adopted by the addiction journals was 0-5, with a mean of 2.66. Conflict-of-interest disclosure was required by all but one journal. Encouraging data-sharing was the next most commonly required procedure. Fewer than half the journals recommended specific reporting guidelines or required registration of clinical trials, and only four required procedures to pre-specify hypotheses and analytical methods.

CONCLUSIONS

While many addiction journals have adopted publication procedures to improve research integrity, these can be limited by their voluntary nature and monitoring difficulties. More stringent requirements that lock researchers into specific hypotheses and analyses have not been widely adopted.

The strong focus on positive results in abstracts may cause bias in systematic reviews: a case study on abstract reporting bias

BACKGROUND

Research articles tend to focus on positive findings in their abstract, especially if multiple outcomes have been studied. At the same time, search queries in databases are generally limited to the abstract, title and keywords fields of an article. Negative findings are therefore less likely to be detected by systematic searches and to appear in systematic reviews. We aim to assess the occurrence of this 'abstract reporting bias' and quantify its impact in the literature on the association between diesel exhaust exposure (DEE) and bladder cancer.

METHODS

We set up a broad search query related to DEE and cancer in general. Full-texts of the articles identified in the search output were manually scanned. Articles were included if they reported, anywhere in the full-text, the association between DEE and bladder cancer. We assume that the use of a broad search query and manual full-text scanning allowed us to catch all the relevant articles, including those in which bladder cancer was not mentioned in the abstract, title or keywords.

RESULTS

We identified 28 articles. Only 12 of these (43%) had mentioned bladder in their abstract, title or keywords. A meta-analysis based on these 12 detectable articles yielded a pooled risk estimate of 1.10 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.97-1.25), whereas the meta-analysis based on all 28 articles yielded a pooled estimate of 1.03 (95% CI 0.96-1.11).

CONCLUSIONS

This case study on abstract reporting bias shows that (a) more than half of all relevant articles were missed by a conventional search query and (b) this led to an overestimation of the pooled effect. Detection of articles will be improved if all studied exposure and outcome variables are reported in the keywords. The restriction on the maximum number of keywords should be lifted.

Applying the E Value to Assess the Robustness of Epidemiologic Fields of Inquiry to Unmeasured Confounding

We explored the use of the E value to gauge the robustness of fields of epidemiologic inquiry to unmeasured confounding. We surveyed nutritional and air pollution studies that found statistically significant associations between exposures and incident outcomes. For 100 studies in each field, we extracted adjusted relative effect estimates and associated confidence intervals. We inverted estimates where necessary so that all effects were greater than 1. We calculated E values for both the effect estimate and the lower limit of the 95% confidence interval. Nutritional studies were smaller than air pollution studies (median participants per study, 40,652 vs. 72,460). More than 90% of nutritional studies categorized the exposure, whereas 89% of air pollution studies analyzed the exposure as a continuous variable. The median relative effect was 1.33 in nutrition and 1.16 in air pollution. The corresponding median E values for the estimates were 2.00 and 1.59, respectively. E values for the 95% confidence intervals had median values of 1.39 and 1.26, respectively. Little to moderate unmeasured confounding could explain away most observed associations. The E value is necessarily larger for smaller studies that reach statistical significance, making cross-field comparison difficult. The E value for the 95% confidence interval might be a more useful measure in reports of epidemiologic observational studies.

Is chocolate consumption associated with health outcomes? An umbrella review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The literature regarding the potential health benefits of chocolate consumption are unclear and the epidemiological credibility has not been systematically scrutinized, while the strength of the evidence is undetermined. We therefore aimed to map and grade the diverse health outcomes associated with chocolate consumption using an umbrella review of systematic reviews.

METHODS

Umbrella review of systematic reviews of observational and intervention studies (randomized placebo-controlled trials, RCTs). For each association, random-effects summary effect size, 95% confidence interval, and 95% prediction interval were estimated. We also assessed heterogeneity, evidence for small-study effect and evidence for excess significance bias. For significant outcomes of the RCTs, the GRADE assessment was furtherly used.

RESULTS

From 240 articles returned, 10 systematic reviews were included (8 of which included a meta-analysis), including a total of 84 studies (36 prospective observational studies and 48 interventional). Nineteen different outcomes were included. Among observational studies, including a total of 1,061,637 participants, the best available evidence suggests that chocolate consumption is associated with reduced risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) death (n = 4 studies), acute myocardial infarction (n = 6), stroke (n = 5) and diabetes (n = 6), although this was based on a weak evidence of credibility. Across meta-analyses of intervention studies, chocolate consumption was positively associated with flow-mediated dilatation at 90-150 min (n = 3) and at 2-18 weeks (n = 3), and insulin resistance markers (n = 2). However, using the GRADE assessment, the evidence for these outcomes was low or very low. Data from two systematic reviews, reported that chocolate consumption was not associated with better depressive mood or cognitive function.

CONCLUSIONS

There is weak evidence to suggest that chocolate consumption may be associated with favorable health outcomes.

Magnesium and health outcomes: an umbrella review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses of observational and intervention studies

PURPOSE

To map and grade all health outcomes associated with magnesium (Mg) intake and supplementation using an umbrella review.

METHODS

Umbrella review of systematic reviews with meta-analyses of observational studies and randomized controlled trials (RCTs) using placebo/no intervention as control group. We assessed meta-analyses of observational studies based on random-effect summary effect sizes and their p values, 95% prediction intervals, heterogeneity, small-study effects and excess significance. For meta-analyses of RCTs, outcomes with a random-effect p value < 0.005 and a high-GRADE assessment were classified as strong evidence.

RESULTS

From 2048 abstracts, 16 meta-analyses and 55 independent outcomes were included (36 in RCTs and 19 in observational studies). In RCTs of Mg versus placebo/no active treatment, 12 over 36 outcomes reported significant results (p < 0.05). A strong evidence for decreased need for hospitalization in pregnancy and for decreased risk of frequency and intensity of migraine relapses in people with migraine was observed using the GRADE assessment. In observational studies, 9/19 outcomes were significant (p < 0.05). However, only one outcome presented highly suggestive evidence (lower incidence of type 2 diabetes in people with higher Mg intake at baseline) and one suggestive (lower incidence of stroke associated with higher Mg intake at baseline).

CONCLUSION

Strong evidence according to the GRADE suggests that Mg supplementation can decrease the risk of hospitalization in pregnant women and reduce the intensity/frequency of migraine. Higher Mg intake is associated with a decreased risk of type 2 diabetes and stroke with highly suggestive and suggestive evidence, respectively, in observational studies.

Limitations and Misinterpretations of E-Values for Sensitivity Analyses of Observational Studies

The E-value was recently introduced on the basis of earlier work as "the minimum strength of association…that an unmeasured confounder would need to have with both the treatment and the outcome to fully explain away a specific treatment-outcome association, conditional on the measured covariates." E-values have been proposed for wide application in observational studies evaluating causality. However, they have limitations and are prone to misinterpretation. E-values have a monotonic, almost linear relationship with effect estimates and thus offer no additional information beyond what effect estimates can convey. Whereas effect estimates are based on real data, E-values may make unrealistic assumptions. No general rule can exist about what is a "small enough" E-value, and users of the biomedical literature are not familiar with how to interpret a range of E-values. Problems arise for any measure dependent on effect estimates and their CIs-for example, bias due to selective reporting and dependence on choice of exposure contrast and level of confidence. The automation of E-values may give an excuse not to think seriously about confounding. Moreover, biases other than confounding may still undermine results. Instead of misused or misinterpreted E-values, the authors recommend judicious use of existing methods for sensitivity analyses with careful assumptions; systematic assessments of whether and how known confounders have been handled, along with consideration of their prevalence and magnitude; thorough discussion of the potential for unknown confounders considering the study design and field of application; and explicit caution in making causal claims from observational studies.

Associations between Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms and Total Energy, Carbohydrate, and Fat Intakes: A Systematic Review

A better understanding of the genetic underpinning of total energy, carbohydrate, and fat intake is a prerequisite to develop personalized dietary recommendations. For this purpose, we systematically reviewed associations between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and total energy, carbohydrate, and fat intakes. Four databases were searched for studies that assessed an association between SNPs and total energy, carbohydrate, and fat intakes. Screening of articles and data extraction was performed independently by 2 reviewers. Articles in English or German language, published between 1994 and September 2017, on human studies in adults and without specific populations were considered for the review. In total, 39 articles, including 86 independent loci, met the inclusion criteria. The fat mass and obesity-associated (FTO) gene as well as the melanocortin 4 receptor (MC4R) locus were most frequently studied. Limited significant evidence of an association between the FTO SNP rs9939609 and lower total energy intake and between the MC4R SNP rs17782313 and higher total energy intake was reported. Most of the other identified loci showed inconsistent results. In conclusion, there is no consistent evidence that the investigated SNPs are associated with and predictive for total energy, carbohydrate, and fat intakes.

An Assessment of the Cox Proportional Hazards Regression Model for Epidemiologic Studies

The basic assumptions of the Cox proportional hazards regression model are rarely questioned. This study addresses whether hazard ratio, i.e., relative risk (RR), estimates using the Cox model are biased when these assumptions are violated. We investigated also the dependence of RR estimates on temporal exposure characteristics, and how inadequate control for a strong, time-dependent confounder affects RRs for a modest, correlated risk factor. In a realistic cohort of 500,000 adults constructed using the National Cancer Institute Smoking History Generator, we used the Cox model with increasing control of smoking to examine the impact on RRs for smoking and a correlated covariate X. The smoking-associated RR was strongly modified by age. Pack-years of smoking did not sufficiently control for its effects; simultaneous control for effect modification by age and time-dependent cumulative exposure, exposure duration, and time since cessation improved model fit. Even then, residual confounding was evident in RR estimates for covariate X, for which spurious RRs ranged from 0.980 to 1.017 per unit increase. Use of the Cox model to control for a time-dependent strong risk factor yields unreliable RR estimates unless detailed, time-varying information is incorporated in analyses. Notwithstanding, residual confounding may bias estimated RRs for a modest risk factor.

Dietary fiber and health outcomes: an umbrella review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses

Background

Several studies have suggested that higher consumption of dietary fiber is beneficial for a variety of health outcomes. However, many results have been inconclusive and, to our knowledge, there has been no attempt to systematically capture the breadth of outcomes associated with dietary fiber intake or to systematically assess the quality and the strength of the evidence on the associations of dietary fiber intake and different health outcomes or medical conditions.

Objective

The aim of this study was to describe the diverse health outcomes convincingly associated with dietary fiber consumption.

Design

This was an umbrella review of systematic reviews with meta-analysis of observational studies. For each association, random-effects summary effect size, 95% CIs, and 95% prediction intervals were estimated. We also assessed heterogeneity, evidence for small-study effect, and evidence for excess significance bias. We used these metrics to evaluate the credibility of the identified evidence.

Results

Our literature search identified 1351 abstracts. Of these, 18 meta-analyses including a total of 298 prospective observational studies and 21 outcomes were included. Outcomes studied included cancer and precancer lesions (n = 12), cardiovascular diseases (CVDs; n = 3), all-cause and specific-cause mortality (n = 4), type 2 diabetes (n = 1), and Crohn disease (n = 1). Overall, 6 (29%) of the 21 eligible outcomes reported highly significant summary results (P < 1 × 10-6); these included CVD and CVD mortality, coronary artery disease, pancreatic cancer, and gastric cancer. Overall, 3 of 21 (14%) outcomes presented convincing evidence (pancreatic cancer, CVD mortality, and all-cause mortality), but only CVD and all-cause mortality were based on prospective studies. Two other outcomes (10%), CVD and coronary artery disease, presented highly suggestive evidence based on prospective studies.

Conclusion

Our results support dietary recommendations that promote higher fiber intake as part of a healthy diet.

Scientific Opinion of the PPR Panel on the follow-up of the findings of the External Scientific Report 'Literature review of epidemiological studies linking exposure to pesticides and health effects'

In 2013, EFSA published a comprehensive systematic review of epidemiological studies published from 2006 to 2012 investigating the association between pesticide exposure and many health outcomes. Despite the considerable amount of epidemiological information available, the quality of much of this evidence was rather low and many limitations likely affect the results so firm conclusions cannot be drawn. Studies that do not meet the 'recognised standards' mentioned in the Regulation (EU) No 1107/2009 are thus not suited for risk assessment. In this Scientific Opinion, the EFSA Panel on Plant Protection Products and their residues (PPR Panel) was requested to assess the methodological limitations of pesticide epidemiology studies and found that poor exposure characterisation primarily defined the major limitation. Frequent use of case-control studies as opposed to prospective studies was considered another limitation. Inadequate definition or deficiencies in health outcomes need to be avoided and reporting of findings could be improved in some cases. The PPR Panel proposed recommendations on how to improve the quality and reliability of pesticide epidemiology studies to overcome these limitations and to facilitate an appropriate use for risk assessment. The Panel recommended the conduct of systematic reviews and meta-analysis, where appropriate, of pesticide observational studies as useful methodology to understand the potential hazards of pesticides, exposure scenarios and methods for assessing exposure, exposure-response characterisation and risk characterisation. Finally, the PPR Panel proposed a methodological approach to integrate and weight multiple lines of evidence, including epidemiological data, for pesticide risk assessment. Biological plausibility can contribute to establishing causation.

When Null Hypothesis Significance Testing Is Unsuitable for Research: A Reassessment

Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) has several shortcomings that are likely contributing factors behind the widely debated replication crisis of (cognitive) neuroscience, psychology, and biomedical science in general. We review these shortcomings and suggest that, after sustained negative experience, NHST should no longer be the default, dominant statistical practice of all biomedical and psychological research. If theoretical predictions are weak we should not rely on all or nothing hypothesis tests. Different inferential methods may be most suitable for different types of research questions. Whenever researchers use NHST they should justify its use, and publish pre-study power calculations and effect sizes, including negative findings. Hypothesis-testing studies should be pre-registered and optimally raw data published. The current statistics lite educational approach for students that has sustained the widespread, spurious use of NHST should be phased out.

Serum uric acid levels and multiple health outcomes: umbrella review of evidence from observational studies, randomised controlled trials, and Mendelian randomisation studies

Objective To map the diverse health outcomes associated with serum uric acid (SUA) levels.Design Umbrella review.Data sources Medline, Embase, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and screening of citations and references.Eligibility criteria Systematic reviews and meta-analyses of observational studies that examined associations between SUA level and health outcomes, meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials that investigated health outcomes related to SUA lowering treatment, and Mendelian randomisation studies that explored the causal associations of SUA level with health outcomes.Results 57 articles reporting 15 systematic reviews and144 meta-analyses of observational studies (76 unique outcomes), 8 articles reporting 31 meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials (20 unique outcomes), and 36 articles reporting 107 Mendelian randomisation studies (56 unique outcomes) met the eligibility criteria. Across all three study types, 136 unique health outcomes were reported. 16 unique outcomes in meta-analyses of observational studies had P<10-6, 8 unique outcomes in meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials had P<0.001, and 4 unique outcomes in Mendelian randomisation studies had P<0.01. Large between study heterogeneity was common (80% and 45% in meta-analyses of observational studies and of randomised controlled trials, respectively). 42 (55%) meta-analyses of observational studies and 7 (35%) meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials showed evidence of small study effects or excess significance bias. No associations from meta-analyses of observational studies were classified as convincing; five associations were classified as highly suggestive (increased risk of heart failure, hypertension, impaired fasting glucose or diabetes, chronic kidney disease, coronary heart disease mortality with high SUA levels). Only one outcome from randomised controlled trials (decreased risk of nephrolithiasis recurrence with SUA lowering treatment) had P<0.001, a 95% prediction interval excluding the null, and no large heterogeneity or bias. Only one outcome from Mendelian randomisation studies (increased risk of gout with high SUA levels) presented convincing evidence. Hypertension and chronic kidney disease showed concordant evidence in meta-analyses of observational studies, and in some (but not all) meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials with respective intermediate or surrogate outcomes, but they were not statistically significant in Mendelian randomisation studies.Conclusion Despite a few hundred systematic reviews, meta-analyses, and Mendelian randomisation studies exploring 136 unique health outcomes, convincing evidence of a clear role of SUA level only exists for gout and nephrolithiasis.

Diet, body size, physical activity and risk of prostate cancer: An umbrella review of the evidence

The existing literature on the relationship between diet, body size, physical activity and prostate cancer risk was summarised by the World Cancer Research Fund Continuous Update Project (CUP). An evaluation of the robustness of this evidence is required to help inform public health policy. The robustness of this evidence was evaluated using several criteria addressing evidence strength and validity, including the statistical significance of the random effects summary estimate and of the largest study in a meta-analysis, number of prostate cancer cases, between-study heterogeneity, 95% prediction intervals, small-study effects bias, excess significance bias and sensitivity analyses with credibility ceilings. A total of 248 meta-analyses were extracted from the CUP, which studied associations of 23 foods, 31 nutrients, eight indices of body size and three indices of physical activity with risk of total prostate cancer development, mortality or cancer development by stage and grade. Of the 176 meta-analyses using a continuous scale to measure the exposures, no association presented strong evidence by satisfying all the aforementioned criteria. Only the association of height with total prostate cancer incidence and mortality presented highly suggestive evidence with a 4% higher risk per 5 cm greater height (95% confidence interval, 1.03, 1.05). Associations for body mass index, weight, height, dietary calcium and spirits intake were supported by suggestive evidence. Overall, the association of diet, body size, physical activity and prostate cancer has been extensively studied, but no association was graded with strong evidence.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of glyphosate exposure and risk of lymphohematopoietic cancers

This systematic review and meta-analysis rigorously examines the relationship between glyphosate exposure and risk of lymphohematopoietic cancer (LHC) including NHL, Hodgkin lymphoma (HL), multiple myeloma (MM), and leukemia. Meta-relative risks (meta-RRs) were positive and marginally statistically significant for the association between any versus no use of glyphosate and risk of NHL (meta-RR = 1.3, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.0-1.6, based on six studies) and MM (meta-RR = 1.4, 95% CI = 1.0-1.9; four studies). Associations were statistically null for HL (meta-RR = 1.1, 95% CI = 0.7-1.6; two studies), leukemia (meta-RR = 1.0, 95% CI = 0.6-1.5; three studies), and NHL subtypes except B-cell lymphoma (two studies each). Bias and confounding may account for observed associations. Meta-analysis is constrained by few studies and a crude exposure metric, while the overall body of literature is methodologically limited and findings are not strong or consistent. Thus, a causal relationship has not been established between glyphosate exposure and risk of any type of LHC.

Best (but oft-forgotten) practices: expressing and interpreting associations and effect sizes in clinical outcome assessments

This article reviews methods used to facilitate the interpretation and evaluation of group-level differences in clinical outcome assessments. These methods complement and supplement tests of statistical significance. Examples, including studies in nutrition, are used to illustrate the application of the interpretation methods for group-level comparisons from experimental or observational studies. In addition, specific pitfalls of evaluating change in meta-analysis studies are described. A set of recommendations is provided. This review is intended as an introduction for the novice and as a refresher for the experienced researcher.

Best (but oft-forgotten) practices: expressing and interpreting associations and effect sizes in clinical outcome assessments

This article reviews methods used to facilitate the interpretation and evaluation of group-level differences in clinical outcome assessments. These methods complement and supplement tests of statistical significance. Examples, including studies in nutrition, are used to illustrate the application of the interpretation methods for group-level comparisons from experimental or observational studies. In addition, specific pitfalls of evaluating change in meta-analysis studies are described. A set of recommendations is provided. This review is intended as an introduction for the novice and as a refresher for the experienced researcher.

A critical review of perfluorooctanoate and perfluorooctanesulfonate exposure and immunological health conditions in humans

Whether perfluorooctanoate (PFOA) and perfluorooctanesulfonate (PFOS), two widely used and biopersistent synthetic chemicals, are immunotoxic in humans is unclear. Accordingly, this article systematically and critically reviews the epidemiologic evidence on the association between exposure to PFOA and PFOS and various immune-related health conditions in humans. Twenty-four epidemiologic studies have reported associations of PFOA and/or PFOS with immune-related health conditions, including ten studies of immune biomarker levels or gene expression patterns, ten studies of atopic or allergic disorders, five studies of infectious diseases, four studies of vaccine responses, and five studies of chronic inflammatory or autoimmune conditions (with several studies evaluating multiple endpoints). Asthma, the most commonly studied condition, was evaluated in seven studies. With few, often methodologically limited studies of any particular health condition, generally inconsistent results, and an inability to exclude confounding, bias, or chance as an explanation for observed associations, the available epidemiologic evidence is insufficient to reach a conclusion about a causal relationship between exposure to PFOA and PFOS and any immune-related health condition in humans. When interpreting such studies, an immunodeficiency should not be presumed to exist when there is no evidence of a clinical abnormality. Large, prospective studies with repeated exposure assessment in independent populations are needed to confirm some suggestive associations with certain endpoints.

Field-wide meta-analyses of observational associations can map selective availability of risk factors and the impact of model specifications

OBJECTIVES

Instead of evaluating one risk factor at a time, we illustrate the utility of "field-wide meta-analyses" in considering all available data on all putative risk factors of a disease simultaneously.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We identified studies on putative risk factors of pterygium (surfer's eye) in PubMed, EMBASE, and Web of Science. We mapped which factors were considered, reported, and adjusted for in each study. For each putative risk factor, four meta-analyses were done using univariate only, multivariate only, preferentially univariate, or preferentially multivariate estimates.

RESULTS

A total of 2052 records were screened to identify 60 eligible studies reporting on 65 putative risk factors. Only 4 of 60 studies reported both multivariate and univariate regression analyses. None of the 32 studies using multivariate analysis adjusted for the same set of risk factors. Effect sizes from different types of regression analyses led to significantly different summary effect sizes (P-value < 0.001). Observed heterogeneity was very high for both multivariate (median I(2), 76.1%) and univariate (median I(2), 85.8%) estimates. No single study investigated all 11 risk factors that were statistically significant in at least one of our meta-analyses.

CONCLUSION

Field-wide meta-analyses can map availability of risk factors and trends in modeling, adjustments and reporting, as well as the impact of differences in model specification.

Feasibility and informative value of environmental sample collection in the National Children's Vanguard Study

BACKGROUND

Birth cohort studies provide the opportunity to advance understanding of the impact of environmental factors on childhood health and development through prospective collection of environmental samples.

METHODS

We evaluated the feasibility and informative value of the environmental sample collection methodology in the initial pilot phase of the National Children's Study, a planned U.S. environmental birth cohort study. Environmental samples were collected from January 2009-September 2010 at up to three home visits: pre-pregnancy (n=306), pregnancy (n=807), and 6-months postnatal (n=117). Collections included air for particulate matter ≤2.5 µm (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide, ozone, volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and carbonyls; vacuum dust for allergens/endotoxin; water for VOCs, trihalomethanes (THMs), and haloacetic acids (HAAs); and wipe samples for pesticides, semi-volatile organics, and metals. We characterized feasibility using sample collection rates and times and informative value using analyte detection frequencies (DF).

RESULTS

Among the 1230 home visits, environmental sample collection rates were high across all sample types (mean=89%); all samples except the air PM2.5 samples had collection times <30 min. Informative value was low for water VOCs (median DF=0%) and pesticide floor wipes (median DF=5%). Informative value was moderate for air samples (median DF=35%) and high for water THMs and HAAs (median DF=91% and 75%, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Though collection of environmental samples was feasible, some samples (e.g., wipe pesticides and water VOCs) yielded limited information. These results can be used in conjunction with other study design considerations, such as target population size and hypotheses of interest, to inform the method selection of future environmental health birth cohort studies.

The mechanism by which moderate alcohol consumption influences coronary heart disease

Background

Moderate alcohol consumption is associated with a lower risk for coronary heart disease (CHD). A suitably integrated view of the CHD pathogenesis pathway will help to elucidate how moderate alcohol consumption could reduce CHD risk.

Methods

A comprehensive literature review was conducted focusing on the pathogenesis of CHD. Biomarker data were further systematically analysed from 294 cohort studies, comprising 1 161 560 subjects. From the above a suitably integrated CHD pathogenetic system for the purpose of this study was developed.

Results

The resulting integrated system now provides insight into the integrated higher-order interactions underlying CHD and moderate alcohol consumption. A novel ‘connection graph’ further simplifies these interactions by illustrating the relationship between moderate alcohol consumption and the relative risks (RR) attributed to various measureable CHD serological biomarkers. Thus, the possible reasons for the reduced RR for CHD with moderate alcohol consumption become clear at a glance.

Conclusions

An integrated high-level model of CHD, its pathogenesis, biomarkers, and moderate alcohol consumption provides a summary of the evidence that a causal relationship between CHD risk and moderate alcohol consumption may exist. It also shows the importance of each CHD pathway that moderate alcohol consumption influences.

How do high glycemic load diets influence coronary heart disease?

Background

Diet has a significant relationship with the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Traditionally the effect of diet on CHD was measured with the biomarker for low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol. However, LDL is not the only or even the most important biomarker for CHD risk. A suitably integrated view of the mechanism by which diet influences the detailed CHD pathogenetic pathways is therefore needed in order to better understand CHD risk factors and help with better holistic CHD prevention and treatment decisions.

Methods

A systematic review of the existing literature was conducted. From this an integrated CHD pathogenetic pathway system was constructed. CHD biomarkers, which are found on these pathways, are the only measurable data to link diet with these CHD pathways. They were thus used to simplify the link between diet and the CHD mechanism. Data were systematically analysed from 294 cohort studies of CHD biomarkers constituting 1 187 350 patients.

Results and discussion

The resulting integrated analysis provides insight into the higher-order interactions underlying CHD and high-glycemic load (HGL) diets. A novel “connection graph” illustrates the measurable relationship between HGL diets and the relative risks attributed to the important CHD serological biomarkers.

The “connection graph” vividly shows that HGL diets not only influence the lipid and metabolic biomarkers, but also the inflammation, coagulation and vascular function biomarkers in an important way.

Conclusion

A focus primarily on the low density lipoprotein cholesterol biomarker for CHD risk has led to the traditional guidelines of CHD dietary recommendations. This has however inadvertently led to HGL diets. The influence of HGL diets on the other CHD biomarkers is not always fully appreciated. Thus, new diets or other interventions which address the full integrated CHD impact, as shown in this paper, are required.

Grading the strength of a body of evidence when assessing health care interventions: an EPC update

OBJECTIVES

To revise 2010 guidance on grading the strength of evidence (SOE) of the effectiveness of drugs, devices, and other preventive and therapeutic interventions in systematic reviews produced by the Evidence-based Practice Center (EPC) program, established by the US Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ).

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

A cross-EPC working group reviewed authoritative systems for grading SOE [primarily the approach from the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) working group] and conducted extensive discussions with GRADE and other experts.

RESULTS

Updated guidance continues to be conceptually similar to GRADE. Reviewers are to evaluate SOE separately for each major treatment comparison for each major outcome. We added reporting bias as a required domain and retained study limitations (risk of bias), consistency, directness, and precision (and three optional domains). Additional guidance covers scoring consistency, precision, and reporting bias, grading bodies of evidence with randomized controlled trials and observational studies, evaluating single study bodies of evidence, using studies with high risk of bias, and presenting findings with greater clarity and transparency. SOE is graded high, moderate, low, or insufficient, reflecting reviewers' confidence in the findings for a specific treatment comparison and outcome.

CONCLUSION

No single approach for grading SOE suits all reviews, but a more consistent and transparent approach to reporting summary information will make reviews more useful to the broad range of audiences that AHRQ's work aims to reach. EPC working groups will consider ongoing challenges and modify guidance as needed, on issues such as combining trials and observational studies in bodies of evidence, weighting domains, and combining qualitative and quantitative syntheses.

False alarms and pseudo-epidemics: the limitations of observational epidemiology

Most reported associations in observational clinical research are false, and the minority of associations that are true are often exaggerated. This credibility problem has many causes, including the failure of authors, reviewers, and editors to recognize the inherent limitations of these studies. This issue is especially problematic for weak associations, variably defined as relative risks (RRs) or odds ratios (ORs) less than 4. Such associations, commonly reported in the medical literature, are more likely to be attributable to bias than to causal association. All observational research has bias (which can include selection, information, and confounding bias). Hence, detection of small associations falls below the discriminatory ability of observational studies. In general, unless RRs in cohort studies exceed 2 to 3 or ORs in case-control studies exceed 3 or 4, associations in observational research findings should not be considered credible. However, these guidelines are not foolproof: strong (yet spurious) associations can result when large amounts of bias are present. Only in a properly performed randomized controlled trial, free of bias, should small associations merit attention. Better training and more circumspection on the part of investigators, tougher editorial standards on the part of journals, and hefty skepticism on the part of referees and readers are necessary to avoid the dangers of false alarms, pseudo-epidemics, and their unfortunate consequences.

Is everything we eat associated with cancer? A systematic cookbook review

BACKGROUND

Nutritional epidemiology is a highly prolific field. Debates on associations of nutrients with disease risk are common in the literature and attract attention in public media.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to examine the conclusions, statistical significance, and reproducibility in the literature on associations between specific foods and cancer risk.

DESIGN

We selected 50 common ingredients from random recipes in a cookbook. PubMed queries identified recent studies that evaluated the relation of each ingredient to cancer risk. Information regarding author conclusions and relevant effect estimates were extracted. When >10 articles were found, we focused on the 10 most recent articles.

RESULTS

Forty ingredients (80%) had articles reporting on their cancer risk. Of 264 single-study assessments, 191 (72%) concluded that the tested food was associated with an increased (n = 103) or a decreased (n = 88) risk; 75% of the risk estimates had weak (0.05 > P ≥ 0.001) or no statistical (P > 0.05) significance. Statistically significant results were more likely than nonsignificant findings to be published in the study abstract than in only the full text (P < 0.0001). Meta-analyses (n = 36) presented more conservative results; only 13 (26%) reported an increased (n = 4) or a decreased (n = 9) risk (6 had more than weak statistical support). The median RRs (IQRs) for studies that concluded an increased or a decreased risk were 2.20 (1.60, 3.44) and 0.52 (0.39, 0.66), respectively. The RRs from the meta-analyses were on average null (median: 0.96; IQR: 0.85, 1.10).

CONCLUSIONS

Associations with cancer risk or benefits have been claimed for most food ingredients. Many single studies highlight implausibly large effects, even though evidence is weak. Effect sizes shrink in meta-analyses.

Knowledge integration in cancer: current landscape and future prospects

Knowledge integration includes knowledge management, synthesis, and translation processes. It aims to maximize the use of collected scientific information and accelerate translation of discoveries into individual and population health benefits. Accumulated evidence in cancer epidemiology constitutes a large share of the 2.7 million articles on cancer in PubMed. We examine the landscape of knowledge integration in cancer epidemiology. Past approaches have mostly used retrospective efforts of knowledge management and traditional systematic reviews and meta-analyses. Systematic searches identify 2,332 meta-analyses, about half of which are on genetics and epigenetics. Meta-analyses represent 1:89-1:1162 of published articles in various cancer subfields. Recently, there are more collaborative meta-analyses with individual-level data, including those with prospective collection of measurements [e.g., genotypes in genome-wide association studies (GWAS)]; this may help increase the reliability of inferences in the field. However, most meta-analyses are still done retrospectively with published information. There is also a flurry of candidate gene meta-analyses with spuriously prevalent "positive" results. Prospective design of large research agendas, registration of datasets, and public availability of data and analyses may improve our ability to identify knowledge gaps, maximize and accelerate translational progress or-at a minimum-recognize dead ends in a more timely fashion.

A nutrient-wide association study on blood pressure

BACKGROUND

A nutrient-wide approach may be useful to comprehensively test and validate associations between nutrients (derived from foods and supplements) and blood pressure (BP) in an unbiased manner.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Data from 4680 participants aged 40 to 59 years in the cross-sectional International Study of Macro/Micronutrients and Blood Pressure (INTERMAP) were stratified randomly into training and testing sets. US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) four cross-sectional cohorts (1999-2000, 2001-2002, 2003-2004, 2005-2006) were used for external validation. We performed multiple linear regression analyses associating each of 82 nutrients and 3 urine electrolytes with systolic and diastolic BP in the INTERMAP training set. Significant findings were validated in the INTERMAP testing set and further in the NHANES cohorts (false discovery rate <5% in training, P<0.05 for internal and external validation). Among the validated nutrients, alcohol and urinary sodium-to-potassium ratio were directly associated with systolic BP, and dietary phosphorus, magnesium, iron, thiamin, folacin, and riboflavin were inversely associated with systolic BP. In addition, dietary folacin and riboflavin were inversely associated with diastolic BP. The absolute effect sizes in the validation data (NHANES) ranged from 0.97 mm Hg lower systolic BP (phosphorus) to 0.39 mm Hg lower systolic BP (thiamin) per 1-SD difference in nutrient variable. Inclusion of nutrient intake from supplements in addition to foods gave similar results for some nutrients, though it attenuated the associations of folacin, thiamin, and riboflavin intake with BP.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified significant inverse associations between B vitamins and BP, relationships hitherto poorly investigated. Our analyses represent a systematic unbiased approach to the evaluation and validation of nutrient-BP associations.

The use of low-calorie sweeteners by adults: impact on weight management

The application of low-calorie sweeteners (LCS) in foods and beverages has increased over the past 35 y. At the same time, many characteristics of the American diet have changed, including variations in fat and carbohydrate content and composition, increased nutrient additions, and new dietary patterns due to changing lifestyles and attitudes toward food and the changing cost of food. During this same time period, the prevalence of overweight and obesity has increased from ~30 to 70% of adults in the United States. Clearly, these trends lead to a variety of hypotheses and efforts to explain the role of LCS in this association. The aim of this review is to gain clarity on the role of LCS in weight management and their impact on diet quality. In addition, because the majority of studies aimed at identifying associations between LCS and these outcomes are based on observational data, the pitfalls in designing and evaluating data from observational studies are also discussed. We conclude that there is no evidence that LCS can be claimed to be a cause of higher body weights in adults. Similarly, evidence supporting a role for LCS in weight management is lacking. Due to the confounders in most observational studies, randomized controlled trials are needed to advance understanding.

Primary study authors of significant studies are more likely to believe that a strong association exists in a heterogeneous meta-analysis compared with methodologists

OBJECTIVE

To assess the interpretation of a highly heterogeneous meta-analysis by authors of primary studies and by methodologists.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We surveyed the authors of studies on the association between insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) and prostate cancer, and 20 meta-analysis methodologists. Authors and methodologists presented with the respective meta-analysis results were queried about the effect size and potential causality of the association. We evaluated whether author responses correlated with the number of IGF-related articles they had published and their study results included in the meta-analysis. We also compared authors' and methodologists' responses.

RESULTS

Authors who had published more IGF-related papers offered more generous effect size estimates for the association (ρ(s)=0.61, P=0.01) and higher likelihood that the odds ratio (OR) was greater than 1.20 (ρ(s)=0.63, P=0.01). Authors who had published themselves studies with statistically significant effects for a positive association were more likely to believe that the true OR is greater than 1.20 compared with methodologists (median likelihood 50% versus 2.5%, P=0.01).

CONCLUSION

Researchers are influenced by their own investment in the field, when interpreting a meta-analysis that includes their own study. Authors who published significant results are more likely to believe that a strong association exists compared with methodologists.

Systematic evaluation of environmental factors: persistent pollutants and nutrients correlated with serum lipid levels

Background Both genetic and environmental factors contribute to triglyceride, low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C), and high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C) levels. Although genome-wide association studies are currently testing the genetic factors systematically, testing and reporting one or a few factors at a time can lead to fragmented literature for environmental chemical factors. We screened for correlation between environmental factors and lipid levels, utilizing four independent surveys with information on 188 environmental factors from the Centers of Disease Control, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, collected between 1999 and 2006.

Methods We used linear regression to correlate each environmental chemical factor to triglycerides, LDL-C and HDL-C adjusting for age, age², sex, ethnicity, socio-economic status and body mass index. Final estimates were adjusted for waist circumference, diabetes status, blood pressure and survey. Multiple comparisons were controlled for by estimating the false discovery rate and significant findings were tentatively validated in an independent survey.

Results We identified and validated 29, 9 and 17 environmental factors correlated with triglycerides, LDL-C and HDL-C levels, respectively. Findings include hydrocarbons and nicotine associated with lower HDL-C and vitamin E (γ-tocopherol) associated with unfavourable lipid levels. Higher triglycerides and lower HDL-C were correlated with higher levels of fat-soluble contaminants (e.g. polychlorinated biphenyls and dibenzofurans). Nutrients and vitamin markers (e.g. vitamins B, D and carotenes), were associated with favourable triglyceride and HDL-C levels.

Conclusions Our systematic association study has enabled us to postulate about broad environmental correlation to lipid levels. Although subject to confounding and reverse causality bias, these findings merit evaluation in additional cohorts.

Prognostic effect size of cardiovascular biomarkers in datasets from observational studies versus randomised trials: meta-epidemiology study

OBJECTIVE

To compare the reported effect sizes of cardiovascular biomarkers in datasets from observational studies with those in datasets from randomised controlled trials.

DESIGN

Review of meta-analyses.

STUDY SELECTION

Meta-analyses of emerging cardiovascular biomarkers (not part of the Framingham risk score) that included datasets from at least one observational study and at least one randomised controlled trial were identified through Medline (last update, January 2011).

DATA EXTRACTION

Study-specific risk ratios were extracted from all identified meta-analyses and synthesised with random effects for (a) all studies, and (b) separately for observational and for randomised controlled trial populations for comparison.

RESULTS

31 eligible meta-analyses were identified. For seven major biomarkers (C reactive protein, non-HDL cholesterol, lipoprotein(a), post-load glucose, fibrinogen, B-type natriuretic peptide, and troponins), the prognostic effect was significantly stronger in datasets from observational studies than in datasets from randomised controlled trials. For five of the biomarkers the effect was less than half as strong in the randomised controlled trial datasets. Across all 31 meta-analyses, on average datasets from observational studies suggested larger prognostic effects than those from randomised controlled trials; from a random effects meta-analysis, the estimated average difference in the effect size was 24% (95% CI 7% to 40%) of the overall biomarker effect.

CONCLUSIONS

Cardiovascular biomarkers often have less promising results in the evidence derived from randomised controlled trials than from observational studies.

Understanding and harnessing the health effects of rapid urbanization in China

China is undergoing a rapid transition from a rural to an urban society. This societal change is a consequence of a national drive toward economic prosperity. Rapid urbanization impacts on infrastructure, environmental health and human wellbeing. Unlike many cases of urban expansion, Chinese urbanization has led to containment, rather than to increase, in the spread of infectious diseases. Conversely, the incidence of chronic conditions such as cardiovascular and metabolic diseases has risen, with higher rates occurring in urban regions. This rural-urban gradient in disease incidence seems not to be a reflection simply of more aggressive diagnosis or healthcare access. Other diseases exhibit little rural versus urban differences (e.g., liver cancer or respiratory disease), or even occur at a higher rate in the rural population (e.g., esophageal cancer). This article examines the impact of this changing demographic on environmental health and human wellbeing in China. Lessons learned from epidemiological studies mostly carried out in Europe and the U.S. may not be directly transferable to China. We advocate that there is now a need to establish robust systems of accurate data collection, a Chinese biobank network to facilitate the profiling of human health effects, and relevant randomized controlled trials to identify effective interventions in the Chinese urbanized setting. Such studies could allow for the future implementation of disease-preventive strategies.