Personalized prediction of lifetime benefits with statin therapy for asymptomatic individuals: a modeling study

Improving Cardiovascular Disease Primary Prevention Treatment Thresholds in a New England Health Care System

Background

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk estimation based on the pooled cohort equation (PCE) overestimates in population-based cohorts. Whether it performs equally across disaggregated demographics in health care populations is less known.

Objectives

The purpose of the study was to recalibrate PCE and rederive prevention thresholds in a contemporary health care system and evaluate its performance across sociodemographics.

Methods

We retrospectively inspected electronic health records between 2010 to 2012 and 2020 to 2022 within Mass General Brigham health care in New England region. We compared performance of the original vs recalibrated PCE measured by calibration, discrimination, reclassification rate, and net benefit among 160,926 patients aged 40 to 79 years and without prior ASCVD or lipid-lowering medication.

Results

Of the 160,926 patients (mean age: 54.6 ± 8.6 years; 61.4% female), 20,373 (12.7%) developed ASCVD over 10 years. The original PCE globally underestimated ASCVD risk (observed vs predicted incidence rate: 0.13 vs 0.05). Recalibration upclassified risk primarily among individuals with low-to-borderline risk by the original PCE and additionally identified 40% of patients who had undergone ASCVD events yet deemed statin-ineligible based on the original PCE. Treatment thresholds yielding the greatest net benefit were ≥24.0% for women (+23.3%) vs ≥26.0% for men (+18.7%), whereas ≥26.0% for White or other race (+24.7%) vs ≥14.0% Black or African American (+12.5%), respectively. Specifically, Hispanic or Latino and non-Hispanic Black patients conferred the greatest sensitivity improvement at ≥12.3% threshold compared to higher ≥23.6% among non-Hispanic Asian or Pacific Islanders. Generally, lower thresholds earlier in life were optimal.

Conclusions

Recalibration and personalized treatment thresholds derived within a health system may improve prevention treatment allocation efficiency.

Age and sex specific thresholds for risk stratification of cardiovascular disease and clinical decision making: prospective open cohort study

Objective

To quantify the potential advantages of using 10 year risk prediction models for cardiovascular disease, in combination with risk thresholds specific to both age and sex, to identify individuals at high risk of cardiovascular disease for allocation of statin treatment.

Design

Prospective open cohort study.

Setting

Primary care data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD, linked with hospital admissions from Hospital Episode Statistics and national mortality records from the Office for National Statistics in England, 1 January 2006 to 31 May 2019.

Participants

1 046 736 individuals (aged 40-85 years) with no cardiovascular disease, diabetes, or a history of statin treatment at baseline using data from electronic health records.

Main outcome measures

10 year risk of cardiovascular disease, calculated with version 2 of the QRISK cardiovascular disease risk algorithm (QRISK2), with two main strategies to identify individuals at high risk: in strategy A, estimated risk was a fixed cut-off value of ≥10% (ie, as per the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines); in strategy B, estimated risk was ≥10% or ≥90th centile of age and sex specific risk distributions.

Results

Compared with strategy A, strategy B stratified 20 241 (149.8%) more women aged ≤53 years and 9832 (150.2%) more men aged ≤47 years as having a high risk of cardiovascular disease; for all other ages the strategies were the same. Assuming that treatment with statins would be initiated in those identified as high risk, differences in the estimated gain in cardiovascular disease-free life years from statin treatment for strategy B versus strategy A were 0.14 and 0.16 years for women and men aged 40 years, respectively; among individuals aged 40-49 years, the numbers needed to treat to prevent one cardiovascular disease event for strategy B versus strategy A were 39 versus 21 in women and 19 versus 15 in men, respectively.

Conclusions

This study quantified the potential gains in cardiovascular disease-free life years when implementing prevention strategies based on age and sex specific risk thresholds instead of a fixed risk threshold for allocation of statin treatment. Such gains should be weighed against the costs of treating more younger people with statins for longer.

The implications of competing risks and direct treatment disutility in cardiovascular disease and osteoporotic fracture: risk prediction and cost effectiveness analysis

Background

Clinical guidelines commonly recommend preventative treatments for people above a risk threshold. Therefore, decision-makers must have faith in risk prediction tools and model-based cost-effectiveness analyses for people at different levels of risk. Two problems that arise are inadequate handling of competing risks of death and failing to account for direct treatment disutility (i.e. the hassle of taking treatments). We explored these issues using two case studies: primary prevention of cardiovascular disease using statins and osteoporotic fracture using bisphosphonates.

Objectives

Externally validate three risk prediction tools [QRISK®3, QRISK®-Lifetime, QFracture-2012 (ClinRisk Ltd, Leeds, UK)]; derive and internally validate new risk prediction tools for cardiovascular disease [competing mortality risk model with Charlson Comorbidity Index (CRISK-CCI)] and fracture (CFracture), accounting for competing-cause death; quantify direct treatment disutility for statins and bisphosphonates; and examine the effect of competing risks and direct treatment disutility on the cost-effectiveness of preventative treatments.

Design, participants, main outcome measures, data sources

Discrimination and calibration of risk prediction models (Clinical Practice Research Datalink participants: aged 25-84 years for cardiovascular disease and aged 30-99 years for fractures); direct treatment disutility was elicited in online stated-preference surveys (people with/people without experience of statins/bisphosphonates); costs and quality-adjusted life-years were determined from decision-analytic modelling (updated models used in National Institute for Health and Care Excellence decision-making).

Results

CRISK-CCI has excellent discrimination, similar to that of QRISK3 (Harrell's c = 0.864 vs. 0.865, respectively, for women; and 0.819 vs. 0.834, respectively, for men). CRISK-CCI has systematically better calibration, although both models overpredict in high-risk subgroups. People recommended for treatment (10-year risk of ≥ 10%) are younger when using QRISK-Lifetime than when using QRISK3, and have fewer observed events in a 10-year follow-up (4.0% vs. 11.9%, respectively, for women; and 4.3% vs. 10.8%, respectively, for men). QFracture-2012 underpredicts fractures, owing to under-ascertainment of events in its derivation. However, there is major overprediction among people aged 85-99 years and/or with multiple long-term conditions. CFracture is better calibrated, although it also overpredicts among older people. In a time trade-off exercise (n = 879), statins exhibited direct treatment disutility of 0.034; for bisphosphonates, it was greater, at 0.067. Inconvenience also influenced preferences in best-worst scaling (n = 631). Updated cost-effectiveness analysis generates more quality-adjusted life-years among people with below-average cardiovascular risk and fewer among people with above-average risk. If people experience disutility when taking statins, the cardiovascular risk threshold at which benefits outweigh harms rises with age (≥ 8% 10-year risk at 40 years of age; ≥ 38% 10-year risk at 80 years of age). Assuming that everyone experiences population-average direct treatment disutility with oral bisphosphonates, treatment is net harmful at all levels of risk.

Limitations

Treating data as missing at random is a strong assumption in risk prediction model derivation. Disentangling the effect of statins from secular trends in cardiovascular disease in the previous two decades is challenging. Validating lifetime risk prediction is impossible without using very historical data. Respondents to our stated-preference survey may not be representative of the population. There is no consensus on which direct treatment disutilities should be used for cost-effectiveness analyses. Not all the inputs to the cost-effectiveness models could be updated.

Conclusions

Ignoring competing mortality in risk prediction overestimates the risk of cardiovascular events and fracture, especially among older people and those with multimorbidity. Adjustment for competing risk does not meaningfully alter cost-effectiveness of these preventative interventions, but direct treatment disutility is measurable and has the potential to alter the balance of benefits and harms. We argue that this is best addressed in individual-level shared decision-making.

Study registration

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42021249959.

Funding

This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health and Social Care Delivery Research programme (NIHR award ref: 15/12/22) and is published in full in Health and Social Care Delivery Research; Vol. 12, No. 4. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Association between 5-year change in cardiovascular risk and the incidence of atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases: a multi-cohort study

BACKGROUND

The influence of the historical cardiovascular risk status on future risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) is poorly understood. We aimed to investigate the association between 5-year changes in cardiovascular risk and ASCVD incidence.

METHODS

We analyzed pooled data from seven community-based prospective cohort studies with up to 20 years of follow-up data. The study populations included White or Black participants aged 40-75 years without prevalent ASCVD. Cardiovascular risk was assessed using the pooled cohort equation and was categorized into non-high (< 20%) or high risk (≥ 20%). Changes in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk over a 5-year interval were recorded. The main outcome was incident ASCVD.

RESULTS

Among 11,026 participants (mean [SD] age, 60.0 [8.1] years), 4272 (38.7%) were female and 3127 (28.4%) were Black. During a median follow-up period of 9.9 years, 2560 (23.2%) ASCVD events occurred. In comparison with individuals showing a consistently high CVD risk, participants whose CVD risk changed from non-high to high (hazard ratio [HR], 0.67; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.59-0.77) or high to non-high (HR, 0.57; 95% CI 0.41-0.80) and those with a consistently non-high risk (HR, 0.33; 95% CI 0.29-0.37) had a lower risk of incident ASCVD. In comparison with individuals showing a consistently non-high CVD risk, participants whose CVD risk changed from high to non-high (HR, 1.74; 95% CI 1.26-2.41) or from non-high to high risk (HR, 2.04; 95% CI 1.84-2.27) and those with a consistently high risk (HR 3.03; 95% CI 2.69-3.42) also showed an increased risk of incident ASCVD.

CONCLUSIONS

Individuals with the same current CVD risk status but different historical CVD risks exhibited varying risks of future ASCVD incidents. Dynamic risk evaluation may enable more accurate cardiovascular risk stratification, and decision-making regarding preventive interventions should take the historical risk status into account.

Effectiveness of Lifestyle Modification vs. Therapeutic, Preventative Strategies for Reducing Cardiovascular Risk in Primary Prevention-A Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are still the leading cause of death in developed countries. The aim of this study was to calculate the potential for CV risk reduction when using three different prevention strategies to evaluate the effect of primary prevention.

METHODS

A total of 931 individuals aged 20-79 years old from the Bialystok PLUS Study were analyzed. The study population was divided into CV risk classes. The Systematic Coronary Risk Estimation (SCORE), Framingham Risk Score (FRS), and LIFE-CVD were used to assess CV risk. The optimal prevention strategy assumed the attainment of therapeutic goals according to the European guidelines. The moderate strategy assumed therapeutic goals in participants with increased risk factors: a reduction in systolic blood pressure by 10 mmHg when it was above 140 mmHg, a reduction in total cholesterol by 25% when it was above 190 mg/dL, and a reduction in body mass index below 30. The minimal prevention strategy assumed that CV risk would be lowered by lifestyle modifications. The greatest CV risk reduction was achieved in the optimal model and then in the minimal model, and the lowest risk reduction was achieved in the moderate model, e.g., using the optimal model of prevention (Model 1). In the total population, we achieved a reduction of -1.74% in the 10-year risk of CVD death (SCORE) in relation to the baseline model, a -0.85% reduction when using the moderate prevention model (Model 2), and a -1.11% reduction when using the minimal prevention model (Model 3). However, in the low CV risk class, the best model was the minimal one (risk reduction of -0.72%), which showed even better results than the optimal one (reduction of -0.69%) using the FRS.

CONCLUSION

A strategy based on lifestyle modifications in a population without established CVD could be more effective than the moderate strategy used in the present study. Moreover, applying a minimal strategy to the low CV risk class population may even be beneficial for an optimal model.

Association of statin use with clinical outcomes in patients with triple-negative breast cancer

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have examined the association of statin therapy and breast cancer outcomes with mixed results. The objective of this study was to investigate the clinical effects of incident statin use among individuals with triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC).

METHODS

Data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare and Texas Cancer Registry-Medicare databases were used, and women aged ≥66 years who had stage I, II, and III breast cancer were identified. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to examine the association of new statin use in the 12 months after a breast cancer diagnosis with overall survival (OS) and breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS).

RESULTS

When examining incident statin use, defined as the initiation of statin therapy in the 12 months after breast cancer diagnosis, a significant association was observed between statin use and improved BCSS (standardized hazard ratio, 0.42; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.20-0.88; P = .022) and OS (hazard ratio, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.50-0.99; P = .046) among patients with TNBC (n = 1534). No association was observed with BCSS (standardized hazard ratio, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.71-1.39; P = .97) or OS (hazard ratio, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.92-1.17; P = .55) among those without TNBC (n = 15,979). The results were consistent when examining statin exposure as a time-varying variable.

CONCLUSIONS

Among women with I, II, and III TNBC, initiation of statin therapy in the 12 months after breast cancer diagnosis was associated with an OS and BCSS benefit. Statins may have a role in select patients with breast cancer, and further investigation is warranted.

Association between change in cardiovascular risk scores and future cardiovascular disease: analyses of data from the Whitehall II longitudinal, prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Evaluation of cardiovascular disease risk in primary care, which is recommended every 5 years in middle-aged and older adults (typical age range 40-75 years), is based on risk scores, such as the European Society of Cardiology Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) and American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) algorithms. This evaluation currently uses only the most recent risk factor assessment. We aimed to examine whether 5-year changes in SCORE and ASCVD risk scores are associated with future cardiovascular disease risk.

METHODS

We analysed data from the Whitehall II longitudinal, prospective cohort study for individuals with no history of stroke, myocardial infarction, coronary artery bypass graft, percutaneous coronary intervention, definite angina, heart failure, or peripheral artery disease. Participants underwent clinical examinations in 5-year intervals between Aug 7, 1991, and Dec 6, 2016, and were followed up for incident cardiovascular disease until Oct 2, 2019. Levels of, and 5-year changes in, cardiovascular disease risk were assessed using the SCORE and ASCVD risk scores and were analysed as predictors of cardiovascular disease. Harrell's C index, continuous net reclassification improvement, the Akaike information criterion, and calibration analysis were used to assess whether incorporating change in risk scores into a model including only a single risk score assessment improved the predictive performance. We assessed the levels of, and 5-year changes in, SCORE and ASCVD risk scores as predictors of cardiovascular disease and disease-free life-years using Cox proportional hazards and flexible parametric survival models.

FINDINGS

7574 participants (5233 [69·1%] men, 2341 [30·9%] women) aged 40-75 years were included in analyses of risk score change between April 24, 1997, and Oct 2, 2019. During a mean follow-up of 18·7 years (SD 5·5), 1441 (19·0%; 1042 [72·3%] men and 399 [27·7%] women) participants developed cardiovascular disease. Adding 5-year change in risk score to a model that included only a single risk score assessment improved model performance according to Harrell's C index (from 0·685 to 0·690, change 0·004 [95% CI 0·000 to 0·008] for SCORE; from 0·699 to 0·700, change 0·001 [0·000 to 0·003] for ASCVD), the Akaike information criterion (from 17 255 to 17 200, change -57 [95% CI -97 to -13] for SCORE; from 14 739 to 14 729, change -10 [-28 to 7] for ASCVD), and the continuous net reclassification index (0·353 [95% CI 0·234 to 0·447] for SCORE; 0·232 [0·030 to 0·344] for ASCVD). Both favourable and unfavourable changes in SCORE and ASCVD were associated with cardiovascular disease risk and disease-free life-years. The associations were seen in both sexes and all age groups up to the age of 75 years. At the age of 45 years, each 2-unit improvement in risk scores was associated with an additional 1·3 life-years (95% CI 0·4 to 2·2) free of cardiovascular disease for SCORE and an additional 0·9 life-years (95% CI 0·5 to 1·3) for ASCVD. At age 65 years, this same improvement was associated with an additional 0·4 life-years (95% CI 0·0 to 0·7) free of cardiovascular disease for SCORE and 0·3 life-years (95% CI 0·1 to 0·5) for ASCVD. These models were developed into an interactive calculator, which enables estimation of the number of cardiovascular disease-free life-years for an individual as a function of two risk score measurements.

INTERPRETATION

Changes in the SCORE and ASCVD risk scores over time inform cardiovascular disease risk prediction beyond a single risk score assessment. Repeat data might allow more accurate cardiovascular risk stratification and strengthen the evidence base for decisions on preventive interventions.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and US National Institute on Aging.

Prediction of individual life-years gained without cardiovascular events from lipid, blood pressure, glucose, and aspirin treatment based on data of more than 500 000 patients with Type 2 diabetes mellitus

AIMS

Although group-level effectiveness of lipid, blood pressure, glucose, and aspirin treatment for prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) has been proven by trials, important differences in absolute effectiveness exist between individuals. We aim to develop and validate a prediction tool for individualizing lifelong CVD prevention in people with Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) predicting life-years gained without myocardial infarction or stroke.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We developed and validated the Diabetes Lifetime-perspective prediction (DIAL) model, consisting of two complementary competing risk adjusted Cox proportional hazards functions using data from people with T2DM registered in the Swedish National Diabetes Registry (n = 389 366). Competing outcomes were (i) CVD events (vascular mortality, myocardial infarction, or stroke) and (ii) non-vascular mortality. Predictors were age, sex, smoking, systolic blood pressure, body mass index, haemoglobin A1c, estimated glomerular filtration rate, non- high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, albuminuria, T2DM duration, insulin treatment, and history of CVD. External validation was performed using data from the ADVANCE, ACCORD, ASCOT and ALLHAT-LLT-trials, the SMART and EPIC-NL cohorts, and the Scottish diabetes register (total n = 197 785). Predicted and observed CVD-free survival showed good agreement in all validation sets. C-statistics for prediction of CVD were 0.83 (95% confidence interval: 0.83-0.84) and 0.64-0.65 for internal and external validation, respectively. We provide an interactive calculator at www.U-Prevent.com that combines model predictions with relative treatment effects from trials to predict individual benefit from preventive treatment.

CONCLUSION

Cardiovascular disease-free life expectancy and effects of lifelong prevention in terms of CVD-free life-years gained can be estimated for people with T2DM using readily available clinical characteristics. Predictions of individual-level treatment effects facilitate translation of trial results to individual patients.

Prediction of individualized lifetime benefit from cholesterol lowering, blood pressure lowering, antithrombotic therapy, and smoking cessation in apparently healthy people

AIMS

The benefit an individual can expect from preventive therapy varies based on risk-factor burden, competing risks, and treatment duration. We developed and validated the LIFEtime-perspective CardioVascular Disease (LIFE-CVD) model for the estimation of individual-level 10 years and lifetime treatment-effects of cholesterol lowering, blood pressure lowering, antithrombotic therapy, and smoking cessation in apparently healthy people.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Model development was conducted in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (n = 6715) using clinical predictors. The model consists of two complementary Fine and Gray competing-risk adjusted left-truncated subdistribution hazard functions: one for hard cardiovascular disease (CVD)-events, and one for non-CVD mortality. Therapy-effects were estimated by combining the functions with hazard ratios from preventive therapy trials. External validation was performed in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (n = 9250), Heinz Nixdorf Recall (n = 4177), and the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Netherlands (n = 25 833), and Norfolk (n = 23 548) studies. Calibration of the LIFE-CVD model was good and c-statistics were 0.67-0.76. The output enables the comparison of short-term vs. long-term therapy-benefit. In two people aged 45 and 70 with otherwise identical risk-factors, the older patient has a greater 10-year absolute risk reduction (11.3% vs. 1.0%) but a smaller gain in life-years free of CVD (3.4 vs. 4.5 years) from the same therapy. The model was developed into an interactive online calculator available via www.U-Prevent.com.

CONCLUSION

The model can accurately estimate individual-level prognosis and treatment-effects in terms of improved 10-year risk, lifetime risk, and life-expectancy free of CVD. The model is easily accessible and can be used to facilitate personalized-medicine and doctor-patient communication.

Would treatment decisions about secondary prevention of CVD based on estimated lifetime benefit rather than 10-year risk reduction be cost-effective?

OBJECTIVE

To test the hypothesis that treatment decisions (treatment with a PCSK9-mAb versus no treatment) are both more effective and more cost-effective when based on estimated lifetime benefit than when based on estimated risk reduction over 10 years.

METHODS

A microsimulation model was constructed for 10,000 patients with stable cardiovascular disease (CVD). Costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) due to recurrent cardiovascular events and (non)vascular death were estimated for lifetime benefit-based compared to 10-year risk-based treatment, with PCSK9 inhibition as an illustration example. Lifetime benefit in months gained and 10-year absolute risk reduction were estimated using the SMART-REACH model, including an individualized treatment effect of PCSK9 inhibitors based on baseline low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. For the different numbers of patients treated (i.e. the 5%, 10%, and 20% of patients with the highest estimated benefit of both strategies), cost-effectiveness was assessed using the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), indicating additional costs per QALY gain.

RESULTS

Lifetime benefit-based treatment of 5%, 10%, and 20% of patients with the highest estimated benefit resulted in an ICER of €36,440/QALY, €39,650/QALY, or €41,426/QALY. Ten-year risk-based treatment decisions of 5%, 10%, and 20% of patients with the highest estimated risk reduction resulted in an ICER of €48,187/QALY, €53,368/QALY, or €52,390/QALY.

CONCLUSION

Treatment decisions (treatment with a PCSK9-mAb versus no treatment) are both more effective and more cost-effective when based on estimated lifetime benefit than when based on estimated risk reduction over 10 years.

Estimated Stroke-Free Survival of Folic Acid Therapy for Hypertensive Adults: Projection Based on the CSPPT

The CSPPT (China Stroke Primary Prevention Trial) demonstrated a significant risk reduction of first stroke in hypertensive patients treated with enalapril plus folic acid compared with those with enalapril alone, but the lifetime stroke-free survival associated with the treatment is unknown. By establishing adjusted models for competing risks and an age-based time scale using data from 19 053 participants of the CSPPT, we estimated lifetime incremental stroke-free survival for enalapril-folic acid versus enalapril alone. Compared with enalapril alone, the enalapril plus folic acid treatment projected a mean lifetime stroke-free survival gain of 1.75 months, with an interquartile range from 0.73 to 2.39 months and the maximum gain up to 12.95 months. Subgroup analyses showed greater gain in stroke-free survival in younger, male patients, those with lower baseline folate levels, higher baseline systolic blood pressure, higher baseline total cholesterol and blood glucose, and with MTHFR (methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase) C677T CT or TT genotype. Overall, besides significant benefit in certain subgroups, enalapril plus folic acid treatment for hypertensive patients is associated with a modest gain in lifetime stroke-free survival, compared with enalapril alone.

Assessing Patient Interest in Individualized Preventive Care Recommendations

Background. Few Americans obtain all 41 guideline-recommended preventive services for nonpregnant adults. We assessed patient interest in prioritizing their preventive care needs. Methods. We conducted a mixed-methods study, with 4 focus groups (N = 28) at a single institution and a nationwide survey (N = 2,103). Participants were middle-aged and older adults with preventive care needs. We obtained reactions to written materials describing the magnitude of benefit from major preventive services, including both absolute and relative benefits. Recommendations were individualized for patient risk factors (“individualized preventive care recommendations”). Focus groups assessed patient interest, how patients would want to discuss individualized recommendations with their providers, and potential for individualized recommendations to influence patient decision making. Survey content was based on focus groups and analyzed with logistic regression. Results. Patients expressed strong interest in individualized recommendations. Among survey respondents, an adjusted 88.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 86.7% to 89.7%) found individualized recommendations very easy to understand, 77.2% (95% CI = 75.3% to 79.1%) considered them very useful, and 64.9% (95% CI = 62.8% to 67.0%) highly trustworthy (each ≥6/7 on Likert scale). Three quarters of participants wanted to receive their own individualized recommendations in upcoming primary care visits (adjusted proportion = 77.5%, 95% CI = 75.6% to 79.4%). Both focus group and survey participants supported shared decision making and reported that individualized recommendations would improve motivation to obtain preventive care. Half of survey respondents reported that they would be much more likely to visit their doctor if they knew individualized recommendations would be discussed, compared with 4.2% who would not be more likely to visit their doctor. Survey respondents already prioritized preventive services, stating they were most likely to choose quick/easy preventive services and least likely to choose expensive preventive services (adjusted proportions, 63.8% and 8.5%, respectively). Results were consistent in sensitivity analyses. Conclusions. Individualized preventive care recommendations are likely to be well received in primary care and might motivate patients to improve adherence to evidence-based care.

Triglycerides Paradox Among the Oldest Old: "The Lower the Better?"

OBJECTIVES

Currently, most treatment guidelines suggest lowering hypertriglyceridemia of any severity, even in elderly individuals. However associations of serum triglycerides (TGs) with adverse health and mortality risk decrease with age, it remains unclear among the oldest old (aged 80 years and older). The study was to investigate the relationship of serum TG concentrations with cognitive function, activities of daily living (ADLs), frailty, and mortality among the oldest old in a prospective cohort study.

DESIGN

Longitudinal prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Community-based setting in longevity areas in China.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 930 (mean age = 94.0 years) Chinese oldest old.

MEASUREMENTS

The TG concentrations were measured at baseline survey in 2009. Cognitive function, ADLs, frailty, and mortality were determined over 5 years of follow-up. Cox proportional hazards models and competing risk models were performed to explore the association, adjusting for potential confounders.

RESULTS

Each 1-mmol/L increase in TGs was associated with a nearly 20% lower risk of cognitive decline, ADL decline, and frailty aggravation during the 5 years of follow-up. Consistently, higher TGs (each 1 mmol/L) was associated with lower 5-year all-cause mortality after fully adjustment (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.79; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.69-0.89). Nonelevated TG concentrations (less than 2.26 mmol/L) were associated with higher mortality risk (HR = 1.72; 95% CI = 1.22-2.44), relative to TGs of 2.26 mmol/L or more. We observed similar results regarding TG concentrations and mortality in 1-year lag analysis and when excluding participants with identified chronic disease.

CONCLUSION

In the oldest old, a higher concentration of TGs was associated with a lower risk of cognitive decline, ADL decline, frailty aggravation, and mortality. This paradox suggests the clinical importance of revisiting the concept of "the lower the better" for the oldest old. J Am Geriatr Soc 67:741-748, 2019.

Estimated Life Expectancy Without Recurrent Cardiovascular Events in Patients With Vascular Disease: The SMART-REACH Model

Background In patients with vascular disease, risk models may support decision making on novel risk reducing interventions, such as proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 inhibitors or anti-inflammatory agents. We developed and validated an innovative model to estimate life expectancy without recurrent cardiovascular events for individuals with coronary, cerebrovascular, and/or peripheral artery disease that enables estimation of preventive treatment effect in lifetime gained. Methods and Results Study participants originated from prospective cohort studies: the SMART (Secondary Manifestations of Arterial Disease) cohort and REACH (Reduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health) cohorts of 14 259 ( REACH Western Europe), 19 170 ( REACH North America) and 6959 ( SMART , The Netherlands) patients with cardiovascular disease. The SMART-REACH model to estimate life expectancy without recurrent events was developed in REACH Western Europe as a Fine and Gray competing risk model incorporating cardiovascular risk factors. Validation was performed in REACH North America and SMART . Outcomes were (1) cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, stroke, cardiovascular death) and (2) noncardiovascular death. Predictors were sex, smoking, diabetes mellitus, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, creatinine, number of cardiovascular disease locations, atrial fibrillation, and heart failure. Calibration plots showed high agreement between estimated and observed prognosis in SMART and REACH North America. C-statistics were 0.68 (95% confidence interval, 0.67-0.70) in SMART and 0.67 (95% confidence interval, 0.66-0.68) in REACH North America. Performance of the SMART-REACH model was better compared with existing risk scores and adds the possibility of estimating lifetime gained by novel therapies. Conclusions The externally validated SMART-REACH model could be used for estimation of anticipated improvements in life expectancy without recurrent cardiovascular events in individual patients with cardiovascular disease in Western Europe and North America.

Estimated individual lifetime benefit from PCSK9 inhibition in statin-treated patients with coronary artery disease

Objective

In statin-treated patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD), residual risk of cardiovascular events is partly explained by plasma levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C). This study aimed to estimate individual benefit of proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibition in CAD patients already treated with high-dose statin.

Methods

Individual lifetime benefit was estimated in months gain free of stroke or myocardial infarction (MI) until age 80 years. Predictions were based on two competing risk models developed in data from 4853 patients with CAD originating from the atorvastatin 80 mg arm of the Treating to New Targets (TNT) trial. The relative effect of PCSK9 inhibition was added to the models and was assumed based on average estimates from large clinical trials. We accounted for individual LDL-C levels, assuming 50% LDL-C reduction by PCSK9 inhibition and 21% cardiovascular risk reduction per mmol/L (39 mg/dL) LDL-C lowering.

Results

Estimated individual gain was <6 months in 61% of the patients, 6–12 months in 28% of the patients and ≥12 months in 10% of the patients (median 5, quartiles 2–8 months). Highest estimated benefit was observed in younger patients (aged 40–60 years) with high risk factor burden, particularly if LDL-C levels were >1.8 mmol/L (>70 mg/dL). Estimated benefit was lowest (≤5 months) in older patients (≥70 years), in particular if LDL-C and other risk factors levels were low.

Conclusion

The individual estimated lifetime benefit from PCSK9 inhibition in patients with stable CAD on high-dose statin varied from <6 to ≥12 months free of stroke or MI. Highest benefit is expected in younger patients (age 40–60 years) with high risk factor burden and relatively high LDL-C levels.

Trial registration number

NCT00327691; Post-results

Primary prevention of cardiovascular disease: The past, present, and future of blood pressure- and cholesterol-lowering treatments

In a Perspective, M. Afran Ikram and Maarten Leening discuss the evolving approaches to determining cardiovascular risk.

Deprescribing preventive cardiovascular medication in patients with predicted low cardiovascular disease risk in general practice - the ECSTATIC study: a cluster randomised non-inferiority trial

BACKGROUND

The use of cardiovascular medication for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is potentially inappropriate when potential risks outweigh the potential benefits. It is unknown whether deprescribing preventive cardiovascular medication in patients without a strict indication for such medication is safe and cost-effective in general practice.

METHODS

In this pragmatic cluster randomised controlled non-inferiority trial, we recruited 46 general practices in the Netherlands. Patients aged 40-70 years who were using antihypertensive and/or lipid-lowering drugs without CVD and with low risk of future CVD were followed for 2 years. The intervention was an attempt to deprescribe preventive cardiovascular medication. The primary outcome was the difference in the increase in predicted (10-year) CVD risk in the per-protocol (PP) population with a non-inferiority margin of 2.5 percentage points. An economic evaluation was performed in the intention-to-treat (ITT) population. We used multilevel (generalised) linear regression with multiple imputation of missing data.

RESULTS

Of 1067 participants recruited between 7 November 2012 and 18 February 2014, 72% were female. Overall, their mean age was 55 years and their mean predicted CVD risk at baseline was 5%. Of 492 participants in the ITT intervention group, 319 (65%) quit the medication (PP intervention group); 135 (27%) of those participants were still not taking medication after 2 years. The predicted CVD risk increased by 2.0 percentage points in the PP intervention group compared to 1.9 percentage points in the usual care group. The difference of 0.1 (95% CI -0.3 to 0.6) fell within the non-inferiority margin. After 2 years, compared to the usual care group, for the PP intervention group, systolic blood pressure was 6 mmHg higher, diastolic blood pressure was 4 mmHg higher and total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol levels were both 7 mg/dl higher (all P < 0.05). Cost and quality-adjusted life years did not differ between the groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of the ECSTATIC study show that an attempt to deprescribe preventive cardiovascular medication in low-CVD-risk patients is safe in the short term when blood pressure and cholesterol levels are monitored after stopping. An attempt to deprescribe medication can be considered, taking patient preferences into consideration.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

This study was registered with Dutch trial register on 20 June 2012 ( NTR3493 ).

A systematic review and checklist presenting the main challenges for health economic modeling in personalized medicine: towards implementing patient-level models

INTRODUCTION

The ongoing development of genomic medicine and the use of molecular and imaging markers in personalized medicine (PM) has arguably challenged the field of health economic modeling (HEM). This study aims to provide detailed insights into the current status of HEM in PM, in order to identify if and how modeling methods are used to address the challenges described in literature. Areas covered: A review was performed on studies that simulate health economic outcomes for personalized clinical pathways. Decision tree modeling and Markov modeling were the most observed methods. Not all identified challenges were frequently found, challenges regarding companion diagnostics, diagnostic performance, and evidence gaps were most often found. However, the extent to which challenges were addressed varied considerably between studies. Expert commentary: Challenges for HEM in PM are not yet routinely addressed which may indicate that either (1) their impact is less severe than expected, (2) they are hard to address and therefore not managed appropriately, or (3) HEM in PM is still in an early stage. As evidence on the impact of these challenges is still lacking, we believe that more concrete examples are needed to illustrate the identified challenges and to demonstrate methods to handle them.

From PK/PD to QSP: Understanding the Dynamic Effect of Cholesterol-Lowering Drugs on Atherosclerosis Progression and Stratified Medicine

Current computational and mathematical tools are demonstrating the high value of using systems modeling approaches (e.g. Quantitative Systems Pharmacology) to understand the effect of a given compound on the biological and physiological mechanisms related to a specific disease. This review provides a short survey of the evolution of the mathematical approaches used to understand the effect of particular cholesterol-lowering drugs, from pharmaco-kinetic (PK) / pharmaco-dynamic (PD) models, through physiologically based pharmacokinetic models (PBPK) to QSP. These mathematical models introduce more mechanistic information related to the effect of these drugs on atherosclerosis progression and demonstrate how QSP could open new ways for stratified medicine in this field.

Personalized Cardiovascular Disease Prediction and Treatment-A Review of Existing Strategies and Novel Systems Medicine Tools

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) continues to constitute the leading cause of death globally. CVD risk stratification is an essential tool to sort through heterogeneous populations and identify individuals at risk of developing CVD. However, applications of current risk scores have recently been shown to result in considerable misclassification of high-risk subjects. In addition, despite long standing beneficial effects in secondary prevention, current CVD medications have in a primary prevention setting shown modest benefit in terms of increasing life expectancy. A systems biology approach to CVD risk stratification may be employed for improving risk-estimating algorithms through addition of high-throughput derived omics biomarkers. In addition, modeling of personalized benefit-of-treatment may help in guiding choice of intervention. In the area of medicine, realizing that CVD involves perturbations of large complex biological networks, future directions in drug development may involve moving away from a reductionist approach toward a system level approach. Here, we review current CVD risk scores and explore how novel algorithms could help to improve the identification of risk and maximize personalized treatment benefit. We also discuss possible future directions in the development of effective treatment strategies for CVD through the use of genome-scale metabolic models (GEMs) as well as other biological network-based approaches.

Comparing the cost-effectiveness of four novel risk markers for screening asymptomatic individuals to prevent cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the US population

BACKGROUND

High sensitivity CRP (hsCRP), coronary artery calcification on CT (CT calcium), carotid artery intima media thickness on ultrasound (cIMT) and ankle-brachial index (ABI) improve prediction of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, but the benefit of screening with these novel risk markers in the U.S. population is unclear.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A microsimulation model evaluating lifelong cost-effectiveness for individuals aged 40-85 at intermediate risk of CVD, using 2003-2004 NHANES-III (N=3736), Framingham Heart Study, U.S. Vital Statistics, meta-analyses of independent predictive effects of the four novel risk markers and treatment effects was constructed. Using both an intention-to-treat (assumes adherence <100% and incorporates disutility from taking daily medications) and an as-treated (100% adherence and no disutility) analysis, quality adjusted life years (QALYs), lifetime costs (2014 US $), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER in $/QALY gained) of screening with hsCRP, CT coronary calcium, cIMT and ABI were established compared with current practice, full adherence to current guidelines, and ubiquitous statin therapy. In the intention-to-treat analysis in men, screening with CT calcium was cost effective ($32,900/QALY) compared with current practice. In women, screening with hsCRP was cost effective ($32,467/QALY). In the as-treated analysis, statin therapy was both more effective and less costly than all other strategies for both men and women.

CONCLUSIONS

When a substantial disutility from taking daily medication is assumed, screening men with CT coronary calcium is likely to be cost-effective whereas screening with hsCRP has value in women. The individual perceived disutility for taking daily medication should play a key role in the decision.

Simulated application of US cardiology guidelines for statin use to hospital patients in Turkey

OBJECTIVES

Simulate the application of the new cardiology prevention guideline on statin use in an angiography clinic sample taken from a hospital in Turkey.

METHODS

Taking statins was used as a quality indicator. All cases (323) included in the sample met criteria for taking statins upon arrival in the angiography clinic. The study population was divided into 3 groups: critical coronary artery disease (CAD) (>50%), noncritical (<50%), or individuals with normal coronary arteries. Patient risk factors were tested for association with taking statins using multiple logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

Only 20.2% of patients were taking statins when they were accepted for coronary angiography. Patients with critical CAD and noncritical CAD had higher odds of receiving statins than persons with no CAD [odds ratio (OR)=12.9, P<.001 and OR=3.5, P=.025, respectively]. Patients receiving angiographic interventions for stent control were more likely to be on statins than patients with angina (OR=5.298, P=0.004). Compared to those not taking the treadmill test, both those with positive and those with negative results had reduced odds of receiving statins (OR=0.260, P=.002, and OR=0.130, P=.002, respectively). Both former and current smokers had lower odds of receiving statins than persons who had never smoked (OR=0.148, P<.001, and OR=0.161, P=.001). Patients taking aspirin were at risk of not being on statins (OR=0.238, P = .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Most of the patients in this study were not taking statins comparing according to US guidelines. Patients who exhibited risk factors for a cardiovascular event but who had not been diagnosed with CAD were at risk for not being on statins.

Decisions on statin therapy by patients' opinions about survival gains: cross sectional survey of general practitioners

Background

Guidelines for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease provide little guidance on how patients’ preferences should be taken into account. We wanted to explore whether general practitioners (GPs) are sensitive to patient preferences regarding survival gains from statin therapy.

Methods

In a cross sectional, online survey 3,270 Norwegian GPs were presented with a 55 year old patient with an unfavourable cardiovascular risk profile. He expressed preferences for statin therapy by indicating a minimum survival gain that would be considered a substantial benefit. This survival gain varied across six versions of the vignette: 8, 4 and 2 years, and 12, 6 and 3 months, respectively. Participants were randomly allocated to one version only. We asked whether the GPs would recommend the patient to take a statin. Subsequently we asked the GPs to estimate the average survival gain of life long simvastatin therapy for patients with a similar risk profile.

Results

We received 1,296 responses (40 %). Across levels of survival gains (8 years to 3 months) the proportion of GPs recommending statin therapy did not vary significantly (OR per level 1.07, 95 % CI 0.99 to 1.16). The GP’s own estimate of survival gain was a statistically significant predictor of recommending therapy (OR per year adjusted for the GPs’ age, sex, speciality attainment and number of patients listed 3.07, CI 2.55 to 3.69).

Conclusion

GPs were insensitive to patient preferences regarding survival gain when recommending statin therapy. The GPs' recommendations were strongly associated with their own estimates of survival gain.

Sex differences in lifetime risk and first manifestation of cardiovascular disease: prospective population based cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate differences in first manifestations of cardiovascular disease between men and women in a competing risks framework.

DESIGN

Prospective population based cohort study.

SETTING

People living in the community in Rotterdam, the Netherlands.

PARTICIPANTS

8419 participants (60.9% women) aged ≥ 55 and free from cardiovascular disease at baseline.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

First diagnosis of coronary heart disease (myocardial infarction, revascularisation, and coronary death), cerebrovascular disease (stroke, transient ischaemic attack, and carotid revascularisation), heart failure, or other cardiovascular death; or death from non-cardiovascular causes. Data were used to calculate lifetime risks of cardiovascular disease and its first incident manifestations adjusted for competing non-cardiovascular death.

RESULTS

During follow-up of up to 20.1 years, 2888 participants developed cardiovascular disease (826 coronary heart disease, 1198 cerebrovascular disease, 762 heart failure, and 102 other cardiovascular death). At age 55, overall lifetime risks of cardiovascular disease were 67.1% (95% confidence interval 64.7% to 69.5%) for men and 66.4% (64.2% to 68.7%) for women. Lifetime risks of first incident manifestations of cardiovascular disease in men were 27.2% (24.1% to 30.3%) for coronary heart disease, 22.8% (20.4% to 25.1%) for cerebrovascular disease, 14.9% (13.3% to 16.6%) for heart failure, and 2.3% (1.6% to 2.9%) for other deaths from cardiovascular disease. For women the figures were 16.9% (13.5% to 20.4%), 29.8% (27.7% to 31.9%), 17.5% (15.9% to 19.2%), and 2.1% (1.6% to 2.7%), respectively. Differences in the number of events that developed over the lifespan in women compared with men (per 1000) were -7 for any cardiovascular disease, -102 for coronary heart disease, 70 for cerebrovascular disease, 26 for heart failure, and -1 for other cardiovascular death; all outcomes manifested at a higher age in women. Patterns were similar when analyses were restricted to hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease outcomes, but absolute risk differences between men and women were attenuated for both coronary heart disease and stroke.

CONCLUSIONS

At age 55, though men and women have similar lifetime risks of cardiovascular disease, there are considerable differences in the first manifestation. Men are more likely to develop coronary heart disease as a first event, while women are more likely to have cerebrovascular disease or heart failure as their first event, although these manifestations appear most often at older ages.

Benefits of statins in elderly subjects without established cardiovascular disease: a meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this paper was to assess whether statins reduce all-cause mortality and cardiovascular (CV) events in elderly people without established CV disease.

BACKGROUND

Because of population aging, prevention of CV disease in the elderly is relevant. In elderly patients with previous CV events, the use of statins is recommended by guidelines, whereas the benefits of these drugs in elderly subjects without previous CV events are still debated.

METHODS

Randomized trials comparing statins versus placebo and reporting all-cause and CV mortality, myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and new cancer onset in elderly subjects (age ≥ 65 years) without established CV disease were included.

RESULTS

Eight trials enrolling 24,674 subjects (42.7% females; mean age 73.0 ± 2.9 years; mean follow up 3.5 ± 1.5 years) were included in analyses. Statins, compared with placebo, significantly reduced the risk of MI by 39.4% (relative risk [RR]: 0.606 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.434 to 0.847]; p = 0.003) and the risk of stroke by 23.8% (RR: 0.762 [95% CI: 0.626 to 0.926]; p = 0.006). In contrast, the risk of all-cause death (RR: 0.941 [95% CI: 0.856 to 1.035]; p = 0.210) and of CV death (RR: 0.907 [95% CI: 0.686 to 1.199]; p = 0.493) were not significantly reduced. New cancer onset did not differ between statin- and placebo-treated subjects (RR: 0.989 [95% CI: 0.851 to 1.151]; p = 0.890).

CONCLUSIONS

In elderly subjects at high CV risk without established CV disease, statins significantly reduce the incidence of MI and stroke, but do not significantly prolong survival in the short-term.