Mortality in patients with HIV-1 infection starting antiretroviral therapy in South Africa, Europe, or North America: a collaborative analysis of prospective studies

Monitoring for advanced disease in the universal test and treat era: trends in CD4 count testing in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Under South Africa's Universal Test and Treat (UTT) policy, CD4 counts are no longer required to determine HIV treatment eligibility. However, CD4 count at presentation remains an important marker of disease progression. We assessed whether CD4 testing declined in the UTT era and, if so, by how much.

METHODS

We analysed CD4 count data from the National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) National HIV Cohort and TIER.Net database for individuals in HIV care across five South African provinces. "First CD4 count" was defined as the first CD4 test recorded for each patient. In TIER.Net, "date of presentation" was the earliest date of HIV testing, CD4 measurement, or clinic visit. Trends in first CD4 testing volumes (2004-2018) were analyzed, with interrupted time-series analyses assessing the impact of UTT (September 2016).

RESULTS

Data included 5,274,218 (NHLS) and 2,265,557 (TIER.Net) individuals with a first CD4 count. In NHLS, first CD4 counts increased from 47,604 in 2004 to 383,705 in 2010 and then declined. Lower volumes were recorded in TIER.Net. Adjusting for prior trends, first CD4 counts increased slightly after UTT, by 32 individuals/day in NHLS (95% CI: - 6 to 61) and 88 individuals/day in TIER.Net (95% CI: 30 to 148). Among TIER.Net patients, the percentage with a CD4 count decreased by 4.3% (95% CI: - 5.2 to - 3.0%).

CONCLUSIONS

We found no major decline in CD4 testing at presentation following UTT, contrasting findings from resource-constrained settings with greater reliance on external donors.

Correcting mortality estimates among children and youth on antiretroviral therapy in southern Africa: A comparative analysis between a multi-country tracing study and linkage to a health information exchange

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study is to assess the outcomes of children, adolescents and young adults with HIV reported as lost to follow-up, correct mortality estimates for children, adolescents and young adults with HIV for unascertained outcomes in those loss to follow-up (LTFU) based on tracing and linkage data separately using data from the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS in Southern Africa.

METHODS

We included data from two different populations of children, adolescents and young adults with HIV; (1) clinical data from children, adolescents and young adults with HIV aged ≤24 years from Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe; (2) clinical data from children, adolescents and young adults with HIV aged ≤14 years from the Western Cape (WC) in South Africa. Outcomes of patients lost to follow-up were available from (1) a tracing study and (2) linkage to a health information exchange. For both populations, we compared six methods for correcting mortality estimates for all children, adolescents and young adults with HIV.

RESULTS

We found substantial variations of mortality estimates among children, adolescents and young adults with HIV reported as lost to follow-up versus those retained in care. Ascertained mortality was higher among lost and traceable children, adolescents and young adults with HIV and lower among lost and linkable than those retained in care (mortality: 13.4% [traced] vs. 12.6% [retained-other Southern Africa countries]; 3.4% [linked] vs. 9.4% [retained-WC]). A high proportion of lost to follow-up children, adolescents and young adults with HIV had self-transferred (21.0% and 47.0%) in the traced and linked samples, respectively. The uncorrected method of non-informative censoring yielded the lowest mortality estimates among all methods for both tracing (6.0%) and linkage (4.0%) approaches at 2 years from ART start. Among corrected methods using ascertained data, multiple imputation, incorporating ascertained data (MI(asc.)) and inverse probability weighting with logistic weights were most robust for the tracing approach. In contrast, for the linkage approach, MI(asc.) was the most robust.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings emphasise that lost to follow-up is non-ignorable and both tracing and linkage improved outcome ascertainment: tracing identified substantial mortality in those reported as lost to follow-up, whereas linkage did not identify out-of-facility deaths, but showed that a large proportion of those reported as lost to follow-up were self-transfers.

High rates of deferring antiretroviral treatment for patients with HIV and substance use disorders: Results from a national sample of HIV physicians in Ukraine

BACKGROUND

HIV incidence and mortality are increasing in Ukraine despite their reductions globally, in part due to suboptimal antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage in key populations of people with HIV (PWH) where the epidemic is concentrated. As physicians are gatekeepers to ART prescription, stigma and discrimination barriers are understudied as a key to meeting HIV treatment targets in key populations.

METHODS

A national sample (N = 204) of ART-prescribing physicians in Ukraine were surveyed between August and November 2019. Participants underwent a series of randomized, hypothetical HIV clinical scenarios and decided whether to initiate or defer (or withhold) ART. Scenarios varied based on 5 distinct CD4 counts (CD4: 17, 176, 305, 470, or 520 cells/mL) and 10 different PWH key populations. Z scores and McNemar's test for paired samples were used to assess differences between key populations and CD4 count. Feeling thermometers were used to assess stigma-related measures toward key populations among physicians.

RESULTS

Physicians were highly experienced (mean = 19 years) HIV treaters, female (80.4%), and trained in infectious diseases (76.5%). Patients who drink alcohol (range: 21.6%-23.5%) or use (PWUD range: 16.7%-20.1%) or inject (PWID range: 15.5%-20.1%) drugs were most likely to have ART deferred, even at AIDS-defining CD4 counts. PWID maintained on methadone, however, were significantly (p<0.001) less likely to have ART deferred compared with those who were not (range: 7.8%-12.7%) on methadone. Men who have sex with men (range: 5.4%-10.8%), transgender women (range: 4.9%-11.3%), sex workers (range: 3.9%-10.3%),and having an HIV-uninfected sex partner (range: 3.9%-9.3%) had the lowest likelihood of ART deferral. Increasing levels of stigma (i.e., feeling thermometers) towards a key population was correlated with ART deferral (i.e., discrimination).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite international and Ukrainian guidelines recommending ART prescription for all PWH, irrespective of risk or CD4 count, ART deferral by experienced HIV experts remains high in certain key populations, especially in PWH and substance use disorders. Strategies that initiate ART immediately after diagnosis (i.e., rapid start antiretroviral therapy), independent of risk group, should be prioritized to truly mitigate the current epidemic.

ART history prior to conception: trends and association with postpartum disengagement from HIV care in Khayelitsha, South Africa (2013-2019): a retrospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION

In recent years, the expansion of HIV treatment eligibility has resulted in an increase in people with antiretroviral therapy (ART) experience prior to pregnancy but little is known about postpartum engagement in care in this population. We examined differences in disengagement from HIV care after delivery by maternal ART history before conception.

METHODS

We analysed data from people living with HIV (aged 15-49) in Khayelitsha, South Africa, with ≥1 live birth between April 2013 and March 2019. We described trends over time in ART history prior to estimated conception, classifying ART history groups as: (A) on ART with no disengagement (>270 days with no evidence of HIV care); (B) returned before pregnancy following disengagement; (C) restarted ART in pregnancy after disengagement; and (D) ART new start in pregnancy. We used Kaplan-Meier curves and proportional-hazards models (adjusted for maternal age, number of pregnancy records and year of delivery) to examine the time to disengagement from delivery to 2 years postpartum.

RESULTS

Among 7309 pregnancies (in 6680 individuals), the proportion on ART (A) increased from 19% in 2013 to 41% in 2019. The proportions of those who returned (B) and restarted (C) increased from 2% to 13% and from 2% to 10%, respectively. There was a corresponding decline in the proportion of new starts (D) from 77% in 2013 to 36% in 2019. In the first recorded pregnancy per person in the study period, 26% (95% CI 25-27%) had disengaged from care by 1 year and 34% (95% CI 33-36%) by 2 years postpartum. Individuals who returned (B: aHR 2.10, 95% CI 1.70-2.60), restarted (C: aHR 3.32, 95% CI 2.70-4.09) and newly started ART (D: aHR 2.41, 95% CI 2.12-2.74) had increased hazards of postpartum disengagement compared to those on ART (A).

CONCLUSIONS

There is a growing population of people with ART experience prior to conception and postpartum disengagement varies substantially by ART history. Antenatal care presents an important opportunity to understand prior ART experiences and an entry into interventions for strengthened engagement in HIV care.

Rapid antiretroviral therapy initiation in patients with advanced HIV disease: 6-month outcomes of an observational cohort evaluation in Lesotho

For adults and adolescents, the World Health Organization defines advanced HIV disease (AHD) as a CD4 (cluster of differentiation 4) count of <200 cells/mm3 or a clinical stage 3 or 4 event. We describe clinical outcomes in a cohort of AHD patients at two regional hospitals in Lesotho. From November 2018-June 2019, we prospectively enrolled eligible patients (≥15 years) not on antiretroviral therapy (ART) presenting with WHO-defined AHD into a differentiated model of care for AHD (including rapid ART initiation) and followed them for six months. All patients received Tuberculosis (TB) symptom screening with further diagnostic testing; serum cryptococcal antigen (CrAg) screening was done for CD4 <100 cells/mm3 or WHO clinical stage 3 or 4. Medical record data were abstracted using visit checklist forms. Categorical and continuous variables were summarized using frequencies, percentages, and means, respectively. Kaplan-Meier was used to estimate survival. Of 537 HIV-positive patients screened, 150 (27.9%) had AHD of which 109 were enrolled. Mean age was 38 years and 62 (56.9%) were men. At initial clinic visit, 8 (7.3%) were already on treatment and 33% (36/109) had presumptive TB per symptom screening. Among 39/109 (40.2%) patients screened for CrAg at initial visit, five (12.8%) were CrAg-positive. Among 109 enrolled, 77 (70.6%) initiated ART at their initial clinic visit, while 32 delayed ART initiation (median delay: 14 days). Of the 109 participants enrolled, 76 (69.7%) completed the 6-month follow-up, 17 (15.6%) were lost to follow-up, 5 (4.6%) transferred to other health facilities and 11 (10.1%) died. The 6-month survival was 87.4%; among 74 patients with a viral load result, 6-month viral suppression (<1,000 copies/ml) was 85.1%. Our study found that even after the implementation of Test and Treat of ART in 2016 in Lesotho, over 25% of patients screened had AHD. Patients with AHD had a high prevalence of TB and CrAg positivity, underscoring the need to assess for AHD and rapidly initiate ART within a package of AHD care for optimal patient outcomes.

Prevalence and trends of advanced HIV disease among antiretroviral therapy-naïve and antiretroviral therapy-experienced patients in South Africa between 2010-2021: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Despite the significant progress made in South Africa in getting millions of individuals living with HIV into care, many patients still present or re-enter care with Advanced HIV Disease (AHD). We aimed to estimate the prevalence of AHD among ART-naive and ART-experienced patients in South Africa using studies published between January 2010 and May 2022.

METHODS

We searched for relevant data on PubMed, CINAHL, Scopus and other sources, with a geographical filters limited to South Africa, up to May 31, 2022. Two reviewers conducted all screening, eligibility assessment, data extraction, and critical appraisal. We synthesized the data using the inverse-variance heterogeneity model and Freeman-Tukey transformation. We assessed heterogeneity using the I2 statistic and publication bias using the Egger and Begg's test.

RESULTS

We identified 2,496 records, of which 53 met the eligibility criteria, involving 11,545,460 individuals. The pooled prevalence of AHD among ART-naive and ART-experienced patients was 43.45% (95% CI 40.1-46.8%, n = 53 studies) and 58.6% (95% CI 55.7 to 61.5%, n = 2) respectively. The time trend analysis showed a decline of 2% in the prevalence of AHD among ART-naive patients per year. However, given the high heterogeneity between studies, the pooled prevalence should be interpreted with caution.

CONCLUSION

Despite HIV's evolution to a chronic disease, our findings show that the burden of AHD remains high among both ART-naive and ART-experienced patients in South Africa. This emphasizes the importance of regular measurement of CD4 cell count as an essential component of HIV care. In addition, providing innovative adherence support and interventions to retain ART patients in effective care is a crucial priority for those on ART.

Incidence of Mortality and Its Predictors Among Adult Human Immune Virus Infected Patients on Antiretroviral Therapy in Wolaita Sodo University Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Southern Ethiopia: A Retrospective Follow-Up Study

Background

Although the goal of ART is to have better health, extend the life of the HIV-infected patient, and decrease HIV-related death, there is a continuation of HIV-related mortality with the use of ART. This study aimed to assess the incidence of mortality and its predictors among adult HIV/AIDS patients who were on ART follow-up at Wolaita Sodo Comprehensive specialized hospital in southern Ethiopia.

Methods

A retrospective follow-up study was conducted from May 1 to June 30, 2021 among adult HIV/AIDS patients with a total of 441 adult HIV/AIDS patients in this hospital included. Kaplan-Meier failure curve and Log rank test were fitted, and Cox-proportional hazards model was also used to identify the predictors of mortality. Both crude and adjusted hazard ratios (AHR) with their 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated to show the strength of association. The proportional assumption was conducted by using a global test based on the Schoenfeld residuals.

Results

Incidence of the mortality rate was 5.61 (95% CI, 4.2-7.3) per 100 person-years observation. In the multivariable analysis, HIV/AIDS patients were widowed (aHR; 10.9 (95% CI, 3.13-37.99), poorly drug-adhered (aHR; 5.6 (95% CI, 2.4-13.2) and fair adhered (aHR; 3.53 (95% CI, 1.58-7.87), WHO clinical stage IV (aHR; 5.91, (95% CI, 1.41-24.71), history of substance use (aHR; 2.02 (95% CI, 1.01-4.06) and history of IV drug use (aHR; 2.26 (95% CI, 1.10-4.74) independently predicted the mortality of patients.

Conclusion

In this study, incidence of mortality was relatively high. The rate of mortality may be minimized by paying particular attention to individuals with widowing, substance use at the baseline, advanced clinical stage IV, history of IV drug use at the baseline, and those with adherence problems.

Reappraisal of Idiopathic CD4 Lymphocytopenia at 30 Years

BACKGROUND

Idiopathic CD4 lymphocytopenia (ICL) is a clinical syndrome that is defined by CD4 lymphopenia of less than 300 cells per cubic millimeter in the absence of any primary or acquired cause of immunodeficiency. Some 30 years after its original identification, ICL has remained a disease of obscure cause, with limited evidence with respect to its prognosis or management, despite diagnostic and therapeutic innovations.

METHODS

We evaluated the clinical, genetic, immunologic, and prognostic characteristics of 108 patients who were enrolled during an 11-year period. We performed whole-exome and targeted gene sequencing to identify genetic causes of lymphopenia. We also performed longitudinal linear mixed-model analyses of T-cell count trajectories and evaluated predictors of clinical events, the response to immunization against coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19), and mortality.

RESULTS

After the exclusion of patients with genetic and acquired causes of CD4 lymphopenia, the study population included 91 patients with ICL during 374 person-years of follow-up. The median CD4+ T-cell count among the patients was 80 cells per cubic millimeter. The most prevalent opportunistic infections were diseases related to human papillomavirus (in 29%), cryptococcosis (in 24%), molluscum contagiosum (in 9%), and nontuberculous mycobacterial diseases (in 5%). A reduced CD4 count (<100 cells per cubic millimeter), as compared with a CD4 count of 101 to 300 cells, was associated with a higher risk of opportunistic infection (odds ratio, 5.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.8 to 10.7) and invasive cancer (odds ratio, 2.1; 95% CI, 1.1 to 4.3) and a lower risk of autoimmunity (odds ratio, 0.5; 95% CI, 0.2 to 0.9). The risk of death was similar to that in the age- and sex-adjusted general population, but the prevalence of cancer was higher.

CONCLUSIONS

Among the study patients, ICL continued to be associated with increased susceptibility to viral, encapsulated fungal, and mycobacterial diseases, as well as with a reduced response to novel antigens and an increased risk of cancer. (Funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and the National Cancer Institute; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00867269.).

Cardiovascular Disease Among Persons Living With HIV: New Insights Into Pathogenesis and Clinical Manifestations in a Global Context

Widespread use of contemporary antiretroviral therapy globally has transformed HIV disease into a chronic illness associated with excess risk for disorders of the heart and circulatory system. Current clinical care and research has focused on improving HIV-related cardiovascular disease outcomes, survival, and quality of life. In high-income countries, emphasis on prevention of atherosclerotic coronary artery disease over the past decade, including aggressive management of traditional risk factors and earlier initiation of antiretroviral therapy, has reduced risk for myocardial infarction among persons living with human immunodeficiency virus-1 infection. Still, across the globe, persons living with human immunodeficiency virus-1 infection on effective antiretroviral therapy treatment remain at increased risk for ischemic outcomes such as myocardial infarction and stroke relative to the persons without HIV. Unique features of HIV-related cardiovascular disease, in part, include the pathogenesis of coronary disease characterized by remodeling ectasia and unusual plaque morphology, the relative high proportion of type 2 myocardial infarction events, abnormalities of the aorta such as aneurysms and diffuse aortic inflammation, and HIV cerebrovasculopathy as a contributor to stroke risk. Literature over the past decade has also reflected a shift in the profile and prevalence of HIV-associated heart failure, with a reduced but persistent risk of heart failure with reduced ejection fraction and a growing risk of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction. Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging and autopsy data have emphasized the central importance of intramyocardial fibrosis for the pathogenesis of both heart failure with preserved ejection fraction and the increase in risk of sudden cardiac death. Still, more research is needed to better characterize the underlying mechanisms and clinical phenotype of HIV-associated myocardial disease in the current era. Across the different cardiovascular disease manifestations, a common pathogenic feature is that HIV-associated inflammation working through different mechanisms may amplify underlying pathology because of traditional risk and other host factors. The prevalence and phenotype of individual cardiovascular disease manifestations is ultimately influenced by the degree of injury from HIV disease combined with the profile of underlying cardiometabolic factors, both of which may differ substantially by region globally.

Attrition from Care Among Men Initiating ART in Male-Only Clinics Compared with Men in General Primary Healthcare Clinics in Khayelitsha, South Africa: A Matched Propensity Score Analysis

Men have higher rates of attrition from antiretroviral therapy (ART) programs than women. In Khayelitsha, a high HIV prevalence area in South Africa, two public sector primary healthcare clinics offer services, including HIV testing and treatment, exclusively to men. We compared attrition from ART care among men initiating ART at these clinics with male attrition in six general primary healthcare clinics in Khayelitsha. We described baseline characteristics of patients initiating ART at the male and general clinics from 1 January 2014 to 31 March 2018. We used exposure propensity scores (generated based on baseline health and age) to match male clinic patients 1:1 to males at other clinics. The association between attrition (death or loss to follow-up, defined as no visits for nine months) and clinic type was estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression. Follow-up time began at ART initiation and ended at attrition, clinic transfer, or dataset closure. Before matching, patients from male clinics (n = 784) were younger than males from general clinics (n = 2726), median age: 31.2 vs 35.5 years. Those initiating at male clinics had higher median CD4 counts at ART initiation [Male Clinic 1: 329 (IQR 210-431), Male Clinic 2: 364 (IQR 260-536), general clinics 258 (IQR 145-398), cells/mm³]. In the matched analysis (1451 person-years, 1568 patients) patients initiating ART at male clinics had lower attrition (HR 0.71; 95% CI 0.60-0.85). In separate analyses for each of the two male clinics, only the more established male clinic showed a protective effect. Male-only clinics reached younger, healthier men, and had lower ART attrition than general services. These findings support clinic-specific adaptations to create more male-friendly environments.

Mortality and immunovirological outcomes in patients with advanced HIV disease on their first antiretroviral treatment: differential impact of antiretroviral regimens

OBJECTIVES

To assess the clinical and immunovirological outcomes among naive patients with advanced HIV presentation starting an antiretroviral regimen in real-life settings.

METHODS

This was a multicentre, prospective cohort study. We included all treatment-naive adults with advanced HIV disease (CD4+ T cell count < 200 cells/mm3or presence of an AIDS-defining illness) who started therapy between 2010 and 2020. The main outcomes were mortality, virological effectiveness (percentage of patients with viral load of ≤50 copies/mL) and immune restoration (percentage of patients with CD4+ T cell count above 350 cells/mm3). Competing risk analysis and Cox proportional models were performed. A propensity score-matching procedure was applied to assess the impact of the antiretroviral regimen.

RESULTS

We included 1594 patients with advanced HIV disease [median CD4+T cell count of 81 cells/mm3and 371 (23.3%) with AIDS-defining illness] and with a median follow-up of 4.44 years. The most common ART used was an integrase strand transfer inhibitor (InSTI) regimen (46.9%), followed by PI (35.7%) and NNRTI (17.4%), with adjusted mortality rates at 3 years of 3.1% (95% CI 1.8%-4.3%), 4.7% (95% CI 2.2%-7.1%) and 7.6% (95% CI 5.4%-9.7%) (P = 0.001), respectively. Factors associated with increased mortality included older age and history of injection drug use, whilst treatment with an InSTI regimen was a protective factor [HR 0.5 (95% CI 0.3-0.9)]. A sensitivity analysis with propensity score procedure confirms these results. Patients who started an InSTI achieved viral suppression and CD4+ T cell count above 350 cells/mm3significantly earlier.

CONCLUSIONS

In this large real-life prospective cohort study, a significant lower mortality, earlier viral suppression and earlier immune reconstitution were observed among patients with advanced HIV disease treated with InSTIs.

High Unreported Mortality in Children and Youth (<25 Years) Living With HIV Who Were Lost to Care From Antiretroviral Therapy Programs in Southern Africa: Results From a Multicountry Tracing Study

BACKGROUND

Antiretroviral therapy program mortality maybe underestimated if deceased patients are misclassified as lost.

METHODS

We used two-stage inverse probability weighting to account for probability of being: sampled for tracing and found by the tracer.

RESULTS

Among 680 children and youth aged <25 years on antiretroviral therapy who were lost and traced in Southern Africa between October 2017 and November 2019, estimated mortality was high at 9.1% (62/680). After adjusting for measured covariates and within-site clustering, mortality remained lower for young adults aged 20-24 years compared with infants aged <2 years [adjusted hazard ratio: 0.40 (95% confidence interval: 0.31 to 0.51)].

CONCLUSIONS

Our study confirms high unreported mortality in children and youth who are lost and the need for tracing to assess vital status among those who are lost to accurately report on program mortality.

Site-Level Comprehensiveness of Care Is Associated with Individual Clinical Retention Among Adults Living with HIV in International Epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS, a Global HIV Cohort Collaboration, 2000-2016

Retention in care (RIC) reduces HIV transmission and associated morbidity and mortality. We examined whether delivery of comprehensive services influenced individual RIC within the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) network. We collected site data through IeDEA assessments 1.0 (2000-2009) and 2.0 (2010-2016). Each site received a comprehensiveness score for service availability (1 = present, 0 = absent), with tallies ranging from 0 to 7. We obtained individual-level cohort data for adults with at least one visit from 2000 to 2016 at sites responding to either assessment. Person-time was recorded annually, with RIC defined as completing two visits at least 90 days apart in each calendar year. Multivariable modified Poisson regression clustered by site yielded risk ratios and predicted probabilities for individual RIC by comprehensiveness. Among 347,060 individuals in care at 122 sites with 1,619,558 person-years of follow-up, 69.8% of person-time was retained in care, varying by region from 53.8% (Asia-Pacific) to 82.7% (East Africa); RIC improved by about 2% per year from 2000 to 2016 (p = 0.012). Every site provided CD4+ count testing, and >90% of individuals received care at sites that provided combination antiretroviral therapy adherence measures, prevention of mother-to-child transmission, tuberculosis screening, HIV-related prevention, and community tracing services. In adjusted models, individuals at sites with more comprehensive services had higher probabilities of RIC (0.71, 0.74, and 0.83 for scores 5, 6, and 7, respectively; p = 0.019). Within IeDEA, greater site-level comprehensiveness of services was associated with improved individual RIC. Much work remains in exploring this relationship, which may inform HIV clinical practice and health systems planning.

Isoniazid adherence reduces mortality and incident tuberculosis at 96 weeks among adults initiating antiretroviral therapy with advanced HIV in multiple high burden settings

Background

People with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and advanced immunosuppression initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) remain vulnerable to tuberculosis (TB) and early mortality. To improve early survival, isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT) or empiric TB treatment have been evaluated; however, their benefit on longer-term outcomes warrants investigation.

Methods

We present a 96-week preplanned secondary analysis among 850 ART-naive outpatients (≥13 years) enrolled in a multicountry, randomized trial of efavirenz-containing ART plus either 6-month IPT (n = 426) or empiric 4-drug TB treatment (n = 424). Inclusion criteria were CD4 count <50 cells/mm³ and no confirmed or probable TB. Death and incident TB were compared by strategy arm using the Kaplan-Meier method. The impact of self-reported adherence (calculated as the proportion of 100% adherence) was assessed using Cox-proportional hazards models.

Results

By 96 weeks, 85 deaths and 63 TB events occurred. Kaplan-Meier estimated mortality (10.1% vs 10.5%; P = .86) and time-to-death (P = .77) did not differ by arm. Empiric had higher TB risk (6.1% vs 2.7%; risk difference, −3.4% [95% confidence interval, −6.2% to −0.6%]; P = .02) and shorter time to TB (P = .02) than IPT. Tuberculosis medication adherence lowered the hazards of death by ≥23% (P < .0001) in empiric and ≥20% (P < .035) in IPT and incident TB by ≥17% (P ≤ .0324) only in IPT.

Conclusions

Empiric TB treatment offered no longer-term advantage over IPT in our population with advanced immunosuppression initiating ART. High IPT adherence significantly lowered death and TB incidence through 96 weeks, emphasizing the benefit of ART plus IPT initiation and completion, in persons with advanced HIV living in high TB-burden, resource-limited settings.

Early mortality in a cohort of people living with HIV in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 2004-2015: a persisting problem

BACKGROUND

Global mortality from AIDS-related diseases has been declining since 2005, resulting primarily from the widespread use and early initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy. Despite the significant improvements, high rates of early mortality, usually defined as that occurring within the 1st year of entry to care, have been observed, especially in resource-limited settings. This analysis draws upon data from an observational cohort of people with HIV (PWH) followed at a reference center for HIV/AIDS care and research in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, to identify the pattern and factors associated with early mortality.

METHODS

The study population includes PWH aged 18 or older followed at the National Institute of Infectious Diseases Evandro Chagas who were enrolled between 2004 and 2015. The primary outcome was early mortality, defined as deaths occurring within 1 year of inclusion in the cohort, considering two follow-up periods: 0 to 90 days (very early mortality) and 91 to 365 days (early mortality). Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify the variables associated with the hazard of very early and early mortality.

RESULTS

Overall, 3879 participants contributed with 3616.4 person-years of follow-up. Of 220 deaths, 132 happened in the first 90 days and 88 between 91 and 365 days. Very early mortality rate ratios (MRR) show no statistically significant temporal differences between the periods 2004-2006 to 2013-2015. In contrast, for early mortality, a statistically significant decreasing trend was observed: mortality rates in the periods 2004-2006 (MR = 5.5; 95% CI 3.9-7.8) and 2007-2009 (MR = 3.9; 95% CI 2.7-5.7) were approximately four and three-fold higher when compared to 2013-2015 (MR = 1.4; 95% CI 0.7-2.7). Low CD4 count and prior AIDS-defining illness were strongly associated with higher hazard ratios of death, especially when considering very early mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study shows an excess of mortality in the 1st year of follow-up with no changes in the mortality rates within 90 days among PWH from Rio de Janeiro. We note the significant impact of initiating treatment with immunosuppression, as evidenced by the increased risk of death among those with low CD4 cell count and with AIDS-defining illnesses.

A comparative analysis on characteristics and mortalities of four key transmission populations on antiretroviral therapy: a retrospective cohort study in Northwest China

Background

This study explored disparities in characteristics and mortalities among four major transmission groups on antiretroviral therapy in northwest China as well as the survival impact of each transmission route.

Methods

We first examined disparities in demographics and clinical characteristics of the four transmission populations. Kaplan Meier analysis was subsequently conducted to compare survival rates among all groups. At last, Cox proportional hazards regression model was employed to analyze the survival impact of a transmission route among seven main categories of survival factors associated with all-cause mortalities.

Results

Survival analysis showed significant differences in all-cause, AIDS- and non-AIDS-related deaths among four HIV populations (all P < 0.05). Using homosexuals as the reference, Cox proportional hazards model further revealed that the risk of all-cause death for blood and plasma donors was significantly higher than that of the reference (aHR: 5.21, 95%CI: 1.54–17.67); the risk of non-AIDS-related death for heterosexuals (aHR: 2.07, 95%CI: 1.01–4.20) and that for blood and plasma donors (aHR: 19.81, 95%CI: 5.62–69.89) were both significantly higher than that of the reference.

Conclusions

Significant disparities were found in characteristics and mortalities among the four transmission groups where mortality disparities were mainly due to non-AIDS-related death. Suggestions are provided for each group to improve their survivorship.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-022-07281-x.

Accessing HIV care may lead to earlier ascertainment of comorbidities in health care clients in Khayelitsha, Cape Town

Successful antiretroviral rollout in South Africa has greatly increased the health of the HIV-positive population, and morbidity and mortality in PLHIV can increasingly be attributed to comorbidities rather than HIV/AIDS directly. Understanding this disease burden can inform health care planning for a growing population of ageing PLHIV. Anonymized routine administrative health data were analysed for all adults who accessed public health care in 2016-2017 in Khayelitsha subdistrict (Cape Town, South Africa). Selected comorbidities and age of ascertainment for comorbidities were described for all HIV-positive and HIV-negative healthcare clients, as well as for a subset of women who accessed maternal care. There were 172 937 adult individuals with a median age of 37 (IQR:30-48) years in the virtual cohort, of whom 48% (83 162) were HIV-positive. Median age of ascertainment for each comorbidity was lower in HIV-positive compared to HIV-negative healthcare clients, except in the case of tuberculosis. A subset of women who previously accessed maternal care, however, showed much smaller differences in the median age of comorbidity ascertainment between the group of HIV-positive and HIV-negative health care clients, except in the case of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Both HIV-positive individuals and women who link to maternal care undergo routine point-of-care screening for common diseases at younger ages, and this analysis suggests that this may lead to earlier diagnosis of common comorbidities in these groups. Exceptions include CKD, in which age of ascertainment appears lower in PLHIV than HIV-negative groups in all analyses suggesting that age of disease onset may indeed be earlier; and tuberculosis for which age of incidence has previously been shown to vary according to HIV status.

Rapid Emergence of T Follicular Helper and Germinal Center B Cells Following Antiretroviral Therapy in Advanced HIV Disease

Low nadir CD4 T-cell counts in HIV+ patients are associated with high morbidity and mortality and lasting immune dysfunction, even after antiretroviral therapy (ART). The early events of immune recovery of T cells and B cells in severely lymphopenic HIV+ patients have not been fully characterized. In a cohort of lymphopenic (CD4 T-cell count < 100/µL) HIV+ patients, we studied mononuclear cells isolated from peripheral blood (PB) and lymph nodes (LN) pre-ART (n = 40) and 6-8 weeks post-ART (n = 30) with evaluation of cellular immunophenotypes; histology on LN sections; functionality of circulating T follicular helper (cTfh) cells; transcriptional and B-cell receptor profile on unfractionated LN and PB samples; and plasma biomarker measurements. A group of 19 healthy controls (HC, n = 19) was used as a comparator. T-cell and B-cell lymphopenia was present in PB pre-ART in HIV+ patients. CD4:CD8 and CD4 T- and B-cell PB subsets partly normalized compared to HC post-ART as viral load decreased. Strikingly in LN, ART led to a rapid decrease in interferon signaling pathways and an increase in Tfh, germinal center and IgD-CD27- B cells, consistent with histological findings of post-ART follicular hyperplasia. However, there was evidence of cTfh cells with decreased helper capacity and of limited B-cell receptor diversification post-ART. In conclusion, we found early signs of immune reconstitution, evidenced by a surge in LN germinal center cells, albeit limited in functionality, in HIV+ patients who initiate ART late in disease.

Global estimates of viral suppression in children and adolescents and adults on antiretroviral therapy adjusted for missing viral load measurements: a multiregional, retrospective cohort study in 31 countries

BACKGROUND

As countries move towards the UNAIDS's 95-95-95 targets and with strong evidence that undetectable equals untransmittable, it is increasingly important to assess whether those with HIV who are receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) achieve viral suppression. We estimated the proportions of children and adolescents and adults with viral suppression at 1, 2, and 3 years after initiating ART.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study, seven regional cohorts from the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) consortium contributed data from individuals initiating ART between Jan 1, 2010, and Dec 31, 2019, at 148 sites in 31 countries with annual viral load monitoring. Only people with HIV who started ART after the time a site started routine viral load monitoring were included. Data up to March 31, 2020, were analysed. We estimated the proportions of children and adolescents (aged <18 years at ART initiation) and adults (aged ≥18 years at ART initiation) with viral suppression (viral load <1000 copies per mL) at 1, 2, and 3 years after ART initiation using an intention-to-treat approach and an adjusted approach that accounted for missing viral load measurements.

FINDINGS

21 594 children and adolescents (11 812 [55%] female, 9782 [45%] male) from 106 sites in 22 countries and 255 662 adults (163 831 [64%] female, 91 831 [36%] male) from 143 sites in 30 countries were included. Using the intention-to-treat approach, the proportion of children and adolescents with viral suppression was 7303 (36%) of 20 478 at 1 year, 5709 (30%) of 19 135 at 2 years, and 4287 (24%) of 17 589 at 3 years after ART initiation; the proportion of adults with viral suppression was 106 541 (44%) of 240 600 at 1 year, 79 141 (36%) of 220 925 at 2 years, and 57 970 (29%) of 201 124 at 3 years after ART initiation. After adjusting for missing viral load measurements among those who transferred, were lost to follow-up, or who were in follow-up without viral load testing, the proportion of children and adolescents with viral suppression was 12 048 (64% [plausible range 43-81]) of 18 835 at 1 year, 10 796 (62% [41-77]) of 17 553 at 2 years, and 9177 (59% [38-91]) of 15 667 at 3 years after ART initiation; the proportion of adults with viral suppression was 176 964 (79% [53-80]) of 225 418 at 1 year, 145 552 (72% [48-79]) of 201 238 at 2 years, and 115 260 (65% [43-69]) of 178 458 at 3 years after ART initiation.

INTERPRETATION

Although adults with HIV are approaching the global target of 95% viral suppression, progress among children and adolescents is much slower. Substantial efforts are still needed to reach the viral suppression target for children and adolescents.

FUNDING

US National Institutes of Health.

Systematic review of research focused on pregnant and postpartum women living with HIV: A relational ethics perspective

Historically, maternal HIV research has focused on prevention of mother-to-child transmission and child outcomes, with little focus on the health outcomes of mothers. Over the course of the HIV epidemic, the approach to including pregnant women in research has shifted. The current landscape lends itself to reviewing the public health ethics of this research. This systematic review aims to identify ethical barriers and considerations for including pregnant and postpartum women living with HIV in treatment adherence and retention research. We completed a systematic literature review following PRISMA guidelines with analysis using a relational ethics perspective. The included studies (n = 7) identified ethical barriers related to (a) women research participants as individuals, (b) partner and family dynamics, (c) community perspectives on research design and conduct, and (d) policy and regulatory implications. These broader contextual factors will yield research responsive to, and respectful of, the needs of pregnant and postpartum women living with HIV. While current regulatory and policy environments may be slow to change, actions can be taken now to foster enabling environments for research. We suggest that a relational approach to public health ethics can best support the needs of pregnant and postpartum women living with HIV; acknowledging this population as systematically disadvantaged and inseparable from their communities will best support the health of this population.

Survival Outcomes of Vietnamese People with HIV after Initiating Antiretroviral Treatment: Role of Clinic-Related Factors

Given the rapid development of HIV clinics in Vietnam, this study evaluates the infrastructure surrounding this expansion, identifying clinic-related factors that impact survival outcomes. A retrospective longitudinal study was conducted among people living with HIV (PLWH) who initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) between 2011 and 2015 among 62 ART clinics in 15 provinces. The mortality rate during the 717674.1 person-years of observation (PYO) was 0.29/100 PYO. Location in rural areas (versus urban) and in Central Vietnam (versus Northern Vietnam) were associated with higher risk of mortality. The risk was lower among clinics that had peer-educators. As Vietnam's HIV/AIDS program continues to expand, this data supports increasing resource allocation for rural clinics, incorporation of ART with the community's existing healthcare infrastructure in its efforts to decentralize, and integration of services to reflect patients' anticipated needs.

Mortality Rate in a Cohort of People Living With HIV in Rural Tanzania After Accounting for Unseen Deaths Among Those Lost to Follow-up

Mortality assessment in cohorts with high numbers of persons lost to follow-up (LTFU) is challenging in settings with limited civil registration systems. We aimed to assess mortality in a clinical cohort (the Kilombero and Ulanga Antiretroviral Cohort (KIULARCO)) of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected persons in rural Tanzania, accounting for unseen deaths among participants LTFU. We included adults enrolled in 2005-2015 and traced a nonrandom sample of those LTFU. We estimated mortality using Kaplan-Meier methods 1) with routinely captured data (method A), 2) crudely incorporating tracing data (method B), 3) weighting using tracing data to crudely correct for unobserved deaths among participants LTFU (method C), and 4) weighting using tracing data accounting for participant characteristics (method D). We investigated associated factors using proportional hazards models. Among 7,460 adults, 646 (9%) died, 883 (12%) transferred to other clinics, and 2,911 (39%) were LTFU. Of 2,010 (69%) traced participants, 325 (16%) were found: 131 (40%) had died and 130 (40%) had transferred. Five-year mortality estimates derived using the 4 methods were 13.1% (A), 16.2% (B), 36.8% (C), and 35.1% (D), respectively. Higher mortality was associated with male sex, referral as a hospital inpatient, living close to the index clinic, lower body mass index, more advanced World Health Organization HIV clinical stage, lower CD4 cell count, and less time since initiation of antiretroviral therapy. Adjusting for unseen deaths among participants LTFU approximately doubled the 5-year mortality estimates. Our approach is applicable to other cohort studies adopting targeted tracing.

Shortened Tuberculosis Treatment for People with HIV in South Africa. A Model-based Evaluation and Cost-effectiveness Analysis

Rationale: Recent tuberculosis treatment trials failed to show that some 4-month (4m) regimens were noninferior to conventional 6-month (6m) regimens for a composite clinical outcome. Novel shortened regimens may still have important clinical and economic benefits in populations with high loss to follow-up (LTFU) and in subgroups such as people with human immunodeficiency virus.Objectives: To identify scenarios in which a novel 4m regimen would be preferred to a conventional 6m regimen for treatment of drug-susceptible tuberculosis in people with human immunodeficiency virus in South Africa, in terms of short-term and long-term clinical and economic outcomes.Methods: We used the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications-International microsimulation model to project outcomes modeled on participants in the OFLOTUB trial. For calibration purposes, we did a base case analysis by applying trial-informed parameters for the 4m/6m regimens, including monthly LTFU during treatment (0.68%/0.83%), average monthly tuberculosis recurrence (0.65%/0.31%), and monthly drug costs (U.S. dollars [USD]25.90/3.70). We then evaluated different scenarios and 4m regimen characteristics, varying key parameters, including LTFU (informed by observational cohort data), recurrence, and cost. We projected outcomes, including 2-year mortality and life expectancy. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis, evaluating the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of a 4m versus 6m regimen.Results: In the base case model analysis, risk of the composite unfavorable outcome in the 4m/6m groups was 19.8%/15.9%, similar to the trial; projected life expectancies were 22.1/22.3 years. In analyses of alternative scenarios and 4m regimen characteristics, a 4m regimen yielded lower risk of the composite unfavorable outcome than the conventional 6m regimen if LTFU increased to greater than 3.5%/mo or if average recurrence after a 4m regimen decreased to less than 0.45%/mo, and it yielded higher life expectancy if LTFU was greater than 3.5%/mo or if recurrence was less than 0.5%/mo. A 4m regimen was not cost-effective in the base case but became cost-effective (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio <USD940/yr of life saved) in two-way sensitivity analysis; for example, if LTFU was greater than or equal to 5.3%/mo and either average recurrence was less than or equal to 0.5%/mo or drug cost was less than or equal to USD15/mo.Conclusions: A novel shortened tuberculosis treatment regimen could improve outcomes such as survival despite conferring a higher recurrence risk, particularly in settings where LTFU is higher than that seen in recent trials.

Twenty Years Of Antiretroviral Therapy For People Living With HIV: Global Costs, Health Achievements, Economic Benefits

Since the introduction of azidothymidine in 1987, significant improvements in treatment for people living with HIV have yielded substantial improvements in global health as a result of the unique benefits of antiretroviral therapy (ART). ART averted 9.5 million deaths worldwide in 1995-2015, with global economic benefits of $1.05 trillion. For every $1 spent on ART, $3.50 in benefits accrued globally. If treatment scale-up achieves the global 90-90-90 targets of the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, a total of 34.9 million deaths are projected to be averted between 1995 and 2030. Approximately 40.2 million new HIV infections could also be averted by ART, and economic gains could reach $4.02 trillion in 2030. Having provided ART to 19.5 million people represents a major human achievement. However, 15.2 million infected people are currently not receiving treatment, which represents a significant lost opportunity. Further treatment scale-up could yield even greater health and economic benefits.

Loss to follow-up correction increased mortality estimates in HIV-positive people on antiretroviral therapy in Mozambique

OBJECTIVES

People living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) on antiretroviral therapy (ART) may be lost to follow-up (LTFU), which hampers the assessment of outcomes. We estimated mortality for patients starting ART in a rural region in sub-Saharan Africa and examined risk factors for death, correcting for LTFU.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We analyzed data from Ancuabe, Mozambique, where patients LTFU are traced by phone and home visits. We used cumulative incidence functions to estimate mortality and LTFU. To correct for LTFU, we revised outcomes based on tracing data using different inverse probability weights (maximum likelihood, Ridge regression, or Bayesian model averaging). We fitted competing risk models to identify risk factors for death and LTFU.

RESULTS

The analyses included 4,492 patients; during 8,152 person-years of follow-up, 486 patients died, 2,375 were LTFU, 752 were traced, and 603 were found. At 4 years after starting ART, observed mortality was 11.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 10.9-13.0), but 23.5% (95% CI: 19.8-28.0), 21.6% (95% CI: 18.7-25.0), and 23.3% (95% CI: 19.7-27.6) after correction with maximum likelihood, Ridge regression, and Bayesian model averaging weights, respectively. The risk factors for death included male sex, lower CD4 cell counts, and more advanced clinical stage.

CONCLUSION

In ART programs with substantial LTFU, mortality estimates need to take LTFU into account.

Estimating retention in HIV care accounting for clinic transfers using electronic medical records: evidence from a large antiretroviral treatment programme in the Western Cape, South Africa

BACKGROUND

Estimates of retention in antiretroviral treatment (ART) programmes may be biased if patients who transfer to healthcare clinics are misclassified as lost to follow-up (LTFU) at their original clinic. In a large cohort, we estimated retention in care accounting for patient transfers using medical records.

METHODS

Using linked electronic medical records, we followed adults living with HIV (PLWH) in Cape Town, South Africa from ART initiation (2012-2016) through database closure at 36 months or 30 June 2016, whichever came first. Retention was defined as alive and with a healthcare visit in the 180 days between database closure and administrative censoring on 31 December 2016. Participants who died or did not have a healthcare visit in > 180 days were censored at their last healthcare visit. We estimated the cumulative incidence of retention using Kaplan-Meier methods considering (i) only records from a participant's ART initiation clinic (not accounting for transfers) and (ii) all records (accounting for transfers), over time and by gender. We estimated risk differences and bootstrapped 95% confidence intervals to quantify misclassification in retention estimates due to patient transfers.

RESULTS

We included 3406 PLWH initiating ART. Retention through 36 months on ART rose from 45.4% (95% CI 43.6%, 47.2%) to 54.3% (95% CI 52.4%, 56.1%) after accounting for patient transfers. Overall, 8.9% (95% CI 8.1%, 9.7%) of participants were misclassified as LTFU due to patient transfers.

CONCLUSIONS

Patient transfers can appreciably bias estimates of retention in HIV care. Electronic medical records can help quantify patient transfers and improve retention estimates.

Prospective International Study of Incidence and Predictors of Immune Reconstitution Inflammatory Syndrome and Death in People Living With Human Immunodeficiency Virus and Severe Lymphopenia

BACKGROUND

Patients living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLWH) with low CD4 counts are at high risk for immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (IRIS) and death at antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation.

METHODS

We investigated the clinical impact of IRIS in PLWH and CD4 counts <100 cells/μL starting ART in an international, prospective study in the United States, Thailand, and Kenya. An independent review committee adjudicated IRIS events. We assessed associations between baseline biomarkers, IRIS, immune recovery at week 48, and death by week 48 with Cox models.

RESULTS

We enrolled 506 participants (39.3% were women). Median age was 37 years, and CD4 count was 29 cells/μL. Within 6 months of ART, 97 (19.2%) participants developed IRIS and 31 (6.5%) died. Participants with lower hemoglobin at baseline were at higher IRIS risk (hazard ratio [HR], 1.2; P = .004). IRIS was independently associated with increased risk of death after adjustment for known risk factors (HR, 3.2; P = .031). Being female (P = .004) and having a lower body mass index (BMI; P = .003), higher white blood cell count (P = .005), and higher D-dimer levels (P = .044) were also significantly associated with increased risk of death. Decision-tree analysis identified hemoglobin <8.5 g/dL as predictive of IRIS and C-reactive protein (CRP) >106 μg/mL and BMI <15.6 kg/m2 as predictive of death.

CONCLUSIONS

For PLWH with severe immunosuppression initiating ART, baseline low BMI and hemoglobin and high CRP and D-dimer levels may be clinically useful predictors of IRIS and death risk.

Metabolic syndrome and 10-year cardiovascular risk among HIV-positive and HIV-negative adults: A cross-sectional study

To determine the prevalence and correlates of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and compare 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk among Kenyan adults with and without HIV infection.We conducted a cross-sectional study among adults ≥30 years of age with and without HIV infection seeking care at Kisumu County Hospital. Participants completed a health questionnaire and vital signs, anthropomorphic measurements, and fasting blood were obtained. MetS was defined using 2009 Consensus Criteria and 10-year Atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) risk score was calculated. Chi-square, independent t tests, Wilcoxon ranksum test and multivariable logistic regression were used to determine differences and associations between HIV and MetS, CVD risk factors and ASCVD risk score.A total of 300 people living with HIV (PLWHIV) and 298 HIV-negative participants with median age 44 years enrolled, 50% of whom were female. The prevalence of MetS was 8.9% overall, but lower among PLWHIV than HIV-negative participants (6.3% vs 11.6%, respectively; P = .001). The most prevalent MetS components were elevated blood pressure, decreased high density lipoprotein, and abdominal obesity. Adjusting for covariates, PLWHIV were 66% less likely to have MetS compared to HIV-negative participants (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.34; 95% confidence interval [95%CI] 0.18, 0.65; P = .005). Median ASCVD risk score was also lower among PLWHIV compared to HIV-negative participants (1.7% vs 3.0%, P = .002).MetS was more common among HIV-negative than HIV-positive adults, and HIV-negative adults were at greater risk for CVD compared to PLWHIV. These data support integration of routine CVD screening and management into health programs in resource-limited settings, regardless of HIV status.

Trends in CD4 and viral load testing 2005 to 2018: multi-cohort study of people living with HIV in Southern Africa

INTRODUCTION

The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends a CD4 cell count before starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) to detect advanced HIV disease, and routine viral load (VL) testing following ART initiation to detect treatment failure. Donor support for CD4 testing has declined to prioritize access to VL monitoring. We examined trends in CD4 and VL testing among adults (≥15 years of age) starting ART in Southern Africa.

METHODS

We analysed data from 14 HIV treatment programmes in Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe in 2005 to 2018. We examined the frequency of CD4 and VL testing, the percentage of adults with CD4 or VL tests, and among those having a test, the percentage starting ART with advanced HIV disease (CD4 count <200 cells/mm3 ) or failing to suppress viral replication (>1000 HIV-RNA copies/mL) after ART initiation. We used mixed effect logistic regression to assess time trends adjusted for age and sex.

RESULTS

Among 502,456 adults, the percentage with CD4 testing at ART initiation decreased from a high of 78.1% in 2008 to a low of 38.0% in 2017; the probability declined by 14% each year (odds ratio (OR) 0.86; 95% CI 0.86 to 0.86). Frequency of CD4 testing also declined. The percentage starting ART with advanced HIV disease declined from 83.3% in 2005 to 23.5% in 2018; each year the probability declined by 20% (OR 0.80; 95% CI 0.80 to 0.81). VL testing after starting ART varied; 61.0% of adults in South Africa and 10.7% in Malawi were tested, but fewer than 2% were tested in the other four countries. The probability of VL testing after ART start increased only modestly each year (OR 1.06; 95% CI 1.05 to 1.06). The percentage with unsuppressed VL was 8.6%. There was no evidence of a decrease in unsuppressed VL over time (OR 1.00; 95% CI 0.99 to 1.01).

CONCLUSIONS

CD4 cell counting declined over time, including testing at the start of ART, despite the fact that many patients still initiated ART with advanced HIV disease. Without CD4 testing and expanded VL testing many patients with advanced HIV disease and treatment failure may go undetected, threatening the effectiveness of ART in sub-Saharan Africa.

Cardiovascular risk and D-dimer levels in HIV-infected ART-naïve Africans

Anti-retroviral therapy (ART) has decreased morbidity and mortality in HIV-infected individuals. With the adoption of the 90-90-90 strategy prevention and control of non-communicable disease, particularly knowledge of the burden and profile of cardiovascular disease, will become increasingly important. Our study assessed cardiovascular risk among recently diagnosed HIV-infected ART-naïve patients in a first referral urban hospital in a low-income country in sub-Saharan Africa. HIV-positive ART-naïve patients were submitted to cardiovascular risk assessment, clinical history, physical examination and laboratory workout, including 12-lead electrocardiography, portable transthoracic echocardiography, glycemia, lipidemia, hemogram and D-dimers. Three years after the diagnosis their vital status and occurrence of major cardiovascular events was assessed. We recruited 70 patients, all of black ethnicity (41 females; mean age 37±10.7). CD4 levels were very low (mean 21.3 cells/mL; SD 10.4). Twenty-one (26.6%) were overweight, 13 (16.7%) were obese, 19 (20.5%) had hyperglycemia and 20 patients (25.6%) had hypercholesterolemia. The median blood pressure was 119.5/79 mmHg (IQR 107-141/67-83); 20 patients (25.6%) had hypertension. Four (5.7%) patients had signs of heart failure, and left ventricular ejection fraction was reduced in 17 (25%). High levels of circulating D-dimers were found in 44 (62.8%) patients; the mean levels were 725.9 (SD 555.1). We found high occurrence of cardiovascular risk factors, left ventricular dysfunction and evidence of a pro-coagulant state in these HIV-infected ART-naïve patients. Active cardiovascular risk screening and stratification, as well as management protocols tailored to low-income settings are needed to sustain the gains obtained with increased availability of ART in Africa.

International epidemiology databases to evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) in sub-Saharan Africa, 2012-2019

PURPOSE

The objectives of the International epidemiology databases to evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) are to (i) evaluate the delivery of combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) in children, adolescents and adults in sub-Saharan Africa, (ii) to describe ART regimen effectiveness, durability and tolerability, (iii) to examine HIV-related comorbidities and coinfections and (iv) to examine the pregnancy-related and HIV-related outcomes of women on ART and their infants exposed to HIV or ART in utero or via breast milk.

PARTICIPANTS

IeDEA is organised in four regions (Central, East, Southern and West Africa), with 240 treatment and care sites, six data centres at African, European and US universities, and almost 1.4 million children, adolescents and adult people living with HIV (PLWHIV) enrolled.

FINDINGS TO DATE

The data include socio-demographic characteristics, clinical outcomes, opportunistic events, treatment regimens, clinic visits and laboratory measurements. They have been used to analyse outcomes in PLWHIV-1 or PLWHIV-2 who initiate ART, including determinants of mortality, of switching to second-line and third-line ART, drug resistance, loss to follow-up and the immunological and virological response to different ART regimens. Programme-level estimates of mortality have been corrected for loss to follow-up. We examined the impact of coinfection with hepatitis B and C, and the epidemiology of different cancers and of (multidrug resistant) tuberculosis, renal disease and of mental illness. The adoption of 'Treat All', making ART available to all PLWHIV regardless of CD4+ cell count or clinical stage was another important research topic.

FUTURE PLANS

IeDEA has formulated several research priorities for the 'Treat All' era in sub-Saharan Africa. It recently obtained funding to set up sentinel sites where additional data are prospectively collected on cardiometabolic risks factors as well as mental health and liver diseases, and is planning to create a drug resistance database.

Impact of three decades of antiretroviral therapy in a longitudinal population cohort study

BACKGROUND

We have used a comprehensive HIV population to characterize antiretroviral therapy (ART), drug class selection, pill burden, drug costs and health outcomes over the entire span of the HIV epidemic.

METHODS

Antiretroviral (ARV) use (drugs, classes, formulations) and both the laboratory and clinical outcomes (HIV-1 RNA, CD4⁺ T-cell count and mortality) were determined for all patients in Southern Alberta, Canada, at each year-end between 1986 and 2017. Pill burden, cumulative drug exposure and costs were calculated for each year.

RESULTS

The number of ARV-treated patients increased from 29.6% (77/260) in 1989 to 93.4% (1,814/1,943) in 2017. Regimen selection showed continuous adjustments for toxicity, resistance, pill burden and adherence. Dramatic improvements in outcomes were seen. In 1997, 22.4% of treated patients had an undetectable viral load, this has been consistently around 90% since 2010 (92.7% in 2017). While HIV-related annual mortality rate declined from 11.0% in 1994 to 0.1% in 2017, all-cause mortality remained relatively stable from 1997 onwards. ART pill burden escalated in 1997 (12.4/day), then decreased to 2.1/day in 2016. Mean ART cost increased in 1997 (CAN$905/month/regimen in 1997, $1,223 in 2016). Mean cumulative lifetime exposure to protease inhibitors is 5.98 ±4.9 and to nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors 8.8 ±6.2 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings demonstrate not only the immense burden that HIV has imposed on both patients and society, but also the substantial benefit of ART on patient outcomes. They show that research, patient engagement and programme support can with time minimize the harmful long-term effects of HIV-infection.

All-cause mortality after antiretroviral therapy initiation in HIV-positive women from Europe, Sub-Saharan Africa and the Americas

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text

Background:

Women account for over half of persons living with HIV/AIDS globally. We examined geographic variation in all-cause mortality after antiretroviral therapy (ART) for women living with HIV (WLWH) worldwide.

Methods:

We pooled data from WLWH at least 18 years initiating ART 2000–2014 within COHERE (Europe) and IeDEA regions (East Africa, West Africa, South Africa, North America, Latin America/Caribbean). Mortality rates were calculated at 0–3, 3–6, 6–12, 12–24 and 24–48 months after ART, and mortality rate ratios were compared with European rates with piecewise exponential parametric survival models based on Poisson regression.

Findings:

One hundred ninety thousand, one hundred and seventy-five WLWH (16% Europe, 47% East Africa, 13% West Africa, 19% South Africa, 1% South America, 3% North America and 2% Central America/Caribbean) were included. The highest death rates occurred 0–3 months after ART [1.51 (95% CI 1.25–1.82) per 100 person-years in Europe, 12.45 (11.30–13.73), 14.03 (13.12–15.02) and 9.44 (8.80–10.11) in East, West and South Africa, and 1.53 (0.97–2.43), 7.83 (5.44–11.27) and 17.02 (14.62–19.81) in North, South America and Central America/Caribbean, respectively] and declined thereafter. Mortality in Europe was the lowest, with regional differences greatest in the first 3 months and smaller at longer ART durations [adjusted rate ratios 24–48 months after ART: 3.63 (95% CI 3.04–4.33), 5.61 (4.84–6.51) and 3.47 (2.97–4.06) for East, West and South Africa; 2.86 (2.26–3.62), 2.42 (1.65–3.55) and 2.50 (1.92–3.26) for North, South America and Central America/Caribbean, respectively].

Conclusion:

Global variations in short-term and long-term mortality among WLWH initiating ART may inform context-specific interventions.

Algorithm-guided empirical tuberculosis treatment for people with advanced HIV (TB Fast Track): an open-label, cluster-randomised trial

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis, which is often undiagnosed, is the major cause of death among HIV-positive people. We aimed to test whether the use of a clinical algorithm enabling the initiation of empirical tuberculosis treatment by nurses in primary health-care clinics would reduce mortality compared with standard of care for adults with advanced HIV disease.

METHODS

In this open-label cluster-randomised controlled trial, we recruited individuals from 24 primary health-care clinics in South Africa. The clinics were randomly assigned (1:1) to either deliver an intervention or routine care (control) using computer-generated random numbers. Eligible participants were HIV-positive adults (aged ≥18 years) with CD4 counts of 150 cells per μL or less, who had not had antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the past 6 months or tuberculosis treatment in the past 3 months, and did not require urgent hospital referral. In intervention clinics, study nurses assessed participants on the basis of tuberculosis symptoms, body-mass index, point-of-care haemoglobin concentrations, and urine lipoarabinomannan assay results. Participants classified by a study algorithm as having high probability of tuberculosis (positive urine lipoarabinomannan assay, body-mass index <18·5 kg/m2, or haemoglobin concentration <100 g/L) were recommended to start tuberculosis treatment immediately followed by ART 2 weeks later; participants classified as medium probability (tuberculosis symptoms, no high probability criteria) were recommended to have symptom-guided investigation; and participants classified as low probability (no tuberculosis symptoms or high probability criteria) were recommended to start ART immediately. In standard-of-care clinics, participants received treatment in accordance with South African guidelines. Investigators and participants were aware of treatment allocation. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality at 6 months, assessed in the intention-to-treat population. Safety was also analysed in the intention-to treat population. This trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN35344604, and the South African National Clinical Trials Register, DOH-27-0812-3902.

FINDINGS

Between Dec 19, 2012, and Dec 18, 2014, 3091 individuals were screened for eligibility, of whom 3053 were recruited, and 3022 (1507 participants in the intervention group and 1515 participants in the control group) were analysed for the primary outcome. 930 (61·7%) of 1507 participants in the intervention group versus 172 (11·4%) of 1515 participants in the control group had started tuberculosis treatment by 2 months. At 6 months, the mortality rate was 19·0 deaths per 100 person-years for the intervention group versus 21·6 deaths per 100 person-years in the control group (unadjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0·92, 95% CI 0·67-1·26, p=0·58; adjusted HR 0·87, 0·61-1·24, p=0·41). 28 (1·9%) of 1507 participants in the intervention group and ten (0·7%) of 1515 participants in the control group reported serious or severe adverse events. Grade 3 or 4 nausea and vomiting was the most common adverse event (ten participants in the intervention group and four participants in the control group). Among participants with adverse events, eight participants (six participants in the intervention group and two participants in the control group) died; none of the six deaths in the intervention group were attributed to the study intervention.

INTERPRETATION

Our intervention substantially increased coverage of tuberculosis treatment in this high-risk population, but did not reduce mortality.

FUNDING

Joint Global Health Trials (Medical Research Council, Department for International Development, Wellcome Trust).

Life-Expectancy Disparities Among Adults With HIV in the United States and Canada: The Impact of a Reduction in Drug- and Alcohol-Related Deaths Using the Lives Saved Simulation Model

Improvements in life expectancy among people living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLWH) receiving antiretroviral treatment in the United States and Canada might differ among key populations. Given the difference in substance use among key populations and the current opioid epidemic, drug- and alcohol-related deaths might be contributing to the disparities in life expectancy. We sought to estimate life expectancy at age 20 years in key populations (and their comparison groups) in 3 time periods (2004-2007, 2008-2011, and 2012-2015) and the potential increase in expected life expectancy with a simulated 20% reduction in drug- and alcohol-related deaths using the novel Lives Saved Simulation model. Among 92,289 PLWH, life expectancy increased in all key populations and comparison groups from 2004-2007 to 2012-2015. Disparities in survival of approximately a decade persisted among black versus white men who have sex with men and people with (vs. without) a history of injection drug use. A 20% reduction in drug- and alcohol-related mortality would have the greatest life-expectancy benefit for black men who have sex with men, white women, and people with a history of injection drug use. Our findings suggest that preventing drug- and alcohol-related deaths among PLWH could narrow disparities in life expectancy among some key populations, but other causes of death must be addressed to further narrow the disparities.

Loss to follow-up from antiretroviral therapy clinics: A systematic review and meta-analysis of published studies in South Africa from 2011 to 2015

Background

South Africa has the largest antiretroviral therapy (ART) programme in the world. To optimise programme outcomes, it is critical that patients are retained in care and that retention is accurately measured.

Objectives

To identify all studies published in South Africa from 2011 to 2015 that used loss to follow-up (LTFU) as an indicator or outcome to describe the variation in definitions and to estimate the proportion of patients lost to care across studies.

Method

All studies published between 01 January 2011 and October 2015 that included loss to follow-up or default from ART care in a South African cohort were included by use of a broad search strategy across multiple databases. To be included, the cohort had to include any patient ART data, including follow-up time, from 01 January 2010. Two authors, working independently, extracted data and assessed risk of bias from all manuscripts. Meta-analysis was performed for studies stratified by the same loss to follow-up definition.

Results

Forty-eight adult, 15 paediatric and 4 pregnant cohorts were included. Median cohort size was 3737; follow-up time ranged from 9 weeks to 5 years. Meta-analysis did not reveal an important difference in LTFU estimates in adult cohorts at 1 year between loss to follow-up defined as 3 months (11.0%, n = 4; 95% CI 10.7% – 11.2%) compared with 6 months (12.0%, n = 4; 95% CI 11.8% – 12.2%). Only two cohorts reported reliable LTFU estimates at 5 years: this was 25.1% (95% CI 24.8% – 25.4%).

Conclusion

South Africa should standardise a LTFU definition. This would aid in monitoring and evaluation of ART programmes, with the broader goal of improving patient outcomes.

Global variations in mortality in adults after initiating antiretroviral treatment: an updated analysis of the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS cohort collaboration

BACKGROUND

UNAIDS models use data from the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) collaboration in setting assumptions about mortality rates after antiretroviral treatment (ART) initiation. This study aims to update these assumptions with new data, to quantify the extent of regional variation in ART mortality and to assess trends in ART mortality.

METHODS

Adult ART patients from Africa, Asia and the Americas were included if they had a known date of ART initiation during 2001-2017 and a baseline CD4 cell count. In cohorts that relied only on passive follow-up (no patient tracing or linkage to vital registration systems), mortality outcomes were imputed in patients lost to follow-up based on a meta-analysis of tracing study data. Poisson regression models were fitted to the mortality data.

RESULTS

464 048 ART patients were included. In multivariable analysis, mortality rates were lowest in Asia and highest in Africa, with no significant differences between African regions. Adjusted mortality rates varied significantly between programmes within regions. Mortality rates in the first 12 months after ART initiation were significantly higher during 2001-2006 than during 2010-2014, although the difference was more substantial in Asia and the Americas [adjusted incidence rate ratio (aIRR) 1.43, 95% CI: 1.22-1.66] than in Africa (aIRR 1.07, 95% CI: 1.04-1.11).

CONCLUSION

There is substantial variation in ART mortality between and within regions, even after controlling for differences in mortality by age, sex, baseline CD4 category and calendar period. ART mortality rates have declined substantially over time, although declines have been slower in Africa.

Analysis of factors associated with dropping-out from HIV antiretroviral therapy in Kunming City, China

BACKGROUND

The implementation of national antiretroviral therapy (ART) and expanded ART policies results in that more and more HIV-infected patients receive ART in Kunming, Yunnan province, China. At the same time, however, the number of patients, who drop-out from ART, are also increasing. In this study, we explored the factors that may account for drop-out.

METHODS

Four hundred and thirty-nine HIV-infected patients, who received or used to receive ART, were recruited in this study. Their age is among 18 and 75. All patients were divided into two group: ART group (187 patients) and drop-out group (252 patients). Appropriate bio-statistics analysis, including univariate analysis and Multivariate analysis, were used to identify factors associated with drop-out.

RESULTS

Data from all patients were analyzed. Univariate analysis suggested that the factors associated with drop-out may include age, residential area, educational level, occupation, monthly income, the access to minimum living allowance, HIV transmission route, and living status. On the other hand, factors including area, monthly income, the access to minimum living allowance, and referral methods of follow-up institutions account for drop-out in multivariate analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

This study identified a number of factors associated with drop out from ART. Based on our findings,appropriate interventions should be introduced decrease drop-out.

HIV testing and engagement with the HIV treatment cascade among men who have sex with men in Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

HIV disproportionately affects gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (MSM) in Africa, where many countries criminalise same-sex behaviour. We assessed changes in the engagement of African MSM with HIV testing and treatment cascade stages over time, and the effect of anti-LGBT legislation and stigma.

METHODS

We systematically searched Embase, Global Health, MEDLINE, Scopus, and Web of Science for peer-reviewed cross-sectional or longitudinal studies recruiting at least ten MSM, published from Jan 1, 1980, to Oct 10, 2018. We extracted or derived estimates of HIV testing, engagement with the HIV treatment cascade, or both among African MSM from published reports. We derived pooled estimates using inverse-variance random-effects models. We used subgroup and meta-regression analysis to assess associations between testing and status awareness outcomes and study and participant characteristics, including the severity of country-level anti-LGBT legislation.

FINDINGS

Our searches identified 75 independent eligible studies that provided estimates for 44 993 MSM across one or more of five testing and treatment cascade outcomes. HIV testing increased significantly over time overall, with pooled proportions of MSM ever tested for HIV of 67·3% (95% CI 62·1-72·3; 44 estimates) and tested in the past 12 months of 50·1% (42·4-57·8, 31 estimates) after 2011, which were 14·8 percentage points and 17·9 percentage points higher than before 2011, respectively. After 2011, ever testing was highest in southern Africa (80·0%), and lowest in northern Africa (34·4%), with the greatest increase in western Africa (from 42·4% to 70·9%). Levels of testing ever, in the past 12 months, and status awareness were statistically significantly lower in countries with the most severe anti-LGBT legislation compared with countries with the least severe legislation (57·4% vs 71·6%, p=0·0056; 35·5% vs 49·3%, p=0·010; 6·7% vs 22·0%, p=0·0050). Few estimates were available for later stages of the treatment cascade. Available data after 2011 suggest that the pooled proportion of MSM HIV-positive aware has remained low (18·5%, 12·5-25·3; 28 estimates), whereas proportions of current antiretroviral therapy (ART) use were 23·7% (15·5-33·0; 13 estimates) among all MSM living with HIV and 60·1% (48·6-71·1; five estimates) among MSM HIV-positive aware of their status. Pooled levels of viral suppression among MSM currently on ART were 75·6% (64·4-85·5; four estimates), but only 24·7% (18·8-31·2; four estimates) among all MSM living with HIV.

INTERPRETATION

Despite improvements in HIV testing among MSM in Africa, HIV status awareness, ART coverage, and viral suppression remain much lower than required to achieve UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets. Further studies are urgently needed to provide more accurate estimates of levels of status awareness, engagement in care, ART coverage, and viral suppression among MSM to inform prevention efforts aimed at improving access to HIV services for MSM. Severe anti-LGBT legislation might be associated with lower HIV testing and status awareness; therefore, further research is needed to assess the effect of such legislation on HIV testing and engagement with the HIV treatment cascade among MSM.

FUNDING

US National Institutes of Health, UK Medical Research Council.

Effect of TB/HIV Integration on TB and HIV Indicators in Rural Ugandan Health Facilities

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization recommends integrating services for patients coinfected with tuberculosis (TB) and HIV. We assessed the effect of TB/HIV integration on antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation and TB treatment outcomes among TB/HIV-coinfected patients using data collected from 14 rural health facilities during 2 previous TB and HIV quality of care studies.

METHODS

A facility was considered to have integrated TB/HIV services if patients with TB/HIV had combined treatment for both illnesses by 1 provider or care team at 1 treatment location. We analyzed the effect of integration by conducting a cross-sectional analysis of integrated and nonintegrated facility periods comparing performance on ART initiation and TB treatment outcomes. We conducted logistic regression, with the patient as the unit of analysis, controlling for other intervention effects, adjusting for age and sex, and clustering by health facility.

RESULTS

From January 2012 to June 2014, 996 patients with TB were registered, 97% were tested for HIV, and 404 (42%) were HIV-positive. Excluding transfers, 296 patients were eligible for analysis with 117 and 179 from nonintegrated and integrated periods, respectively. Being treated in a facility with TB/HIV integration was associated with lower mortality [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 0.38, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.18 to 0.77], but there was no difference in the proportion initiating ART (aOR = 1.34, 95% CI: 0.40 to 4.47), with TB treatment success (aOR = 1.43, 95% CI: 0.73 to 2.82), lost to follow-up (aOR = 1.64, 95% CI: 0.53 to 5.04), or failure (aOR = 1.21, 95% CI: 0.34 to 4.32).

CONCLUSIONS

TB/HIV service integration was associated with lower mortality during TB treatment even in settings with suboptimal proportions of patients completing TB treatment and starting on ART.

Causes and Timing of Mortality and Morbidity Among Late Presenters Starting Antiretroviral Therapy in the REALITY Trial

Background

In sub-Saharan Africa, 20%-25% of people starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) have severe immunosuppression; approximately 10% die within 3 months. In the Reduction of EArly mortaLITY (REALITY) randomized trial, a broad enhanced anti-infection prophylaxis bundle reduced mortality vs cotrimoxazole. We investigate the contribution and timing of different causes of mortality/morbidity.

Methods

Participants started ART with a CD4 count <100 cells/µL; enhanced prophylaxis comprised cotrimoxazole plus 12 weeks of isoniazid + fluconazole, single-dose albendazole, and 5 days of azithromycin. A blinded committee adjudicated events and causes of death as (non-mutually exclusively) tuberculosis, cryptococcosis, severe bacterial infection (SBI), other potentially azithromycin-responsive infections, other events, and unknown.

Results

Median pre-ART CD4 count was 37 cells/µL. Among 1805 participants, 225 (12.7%) died by week 48. Fatal/nonfatal events occurred early (median 4 weeks); rates then declined exponentially. One hundred fifty-four deaths had single and 71 had multiple causes, including tuberculosis in 4.5% participants, cryptococcosis in 1.1%, SBI in 1.9%, other potentially azithromycin-responsive infections in 1.3%, other events in 3.6%, and unknown in 5.0%. Enhanced prophylaxis reduced deaths from cryptococcosis and unknown causes (P < .05) but not tuberculosis, SBI, potentially azithromycin-responsive infections, or other causes (P > .3); and reduced nonfatal/fatal tuberculosis and cryptococcosis (P < .05), but not SBI, other potentially azithromycin-responsive infections, or other events (P > .2).

Conclusions

Enhanced prophylaxis reduced mortality from cryptococcosis and unknown causes and nonfatal tuberculosis and cryptococcosis. High early incidence of fatal/nonfatal events highlights the need for starting enhanced-prophylaxis with ART in advanced disease.

Clinical Trials Registration

ISRCTN43622374.

Assessing rates and contextual predictors of 5-year mortality among HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected individuals following HIV testing in Durban, South Africa

Background

Little is known about contextual factors that predict long-term mortality following HIV testing in resource-limited settings. We evaluated the impact of contextual factors on 5-year mortality among HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected individuals in Durban, South Africa.

Methods

We used data from the Sizanani trial (NCT01188941) in which adults (≥18y) were enrolled prior to HIV testing at 4 outpatient sites. We ascertained vital status via the South African National Population Register. We used random survival forests to identify the most influential predictors of time to death and incorporated these into a Cox model that included age, gender, HIV status, CD4 count, healthcare usage, health facility type, mental health, and self-identified barriers to care (i.e., service delivery, financial, logistical, structural and perceived health).

Results

Among 4816 participants, 39% were HIV-infected. Median age was 31y and 49% were female. 380 of 2508 with survival information (15%) died during median follow-up of 5.8y. For both HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected participants, each additional barrier domain increased the HR of dying by 11% (HR 1.11, 95% CI 1.05–1.18). Every 10-point increase in mental health score decreased the HR by 7% (HR 0.93, 95% CI 0.89–0.97). The hazard ratio (HR) for death of HIV-infected versus HIV-uninfected varied by age: HR of 6.59 (95% CI: 4.79–9.06) at age 20 dropping to a HR of 1.13 (95% CI: 0.86–1.48) at age 60.

Conclusions

Independent of serostatus, more self-identified barrier domains and poorer mental health increased mortality risk. Additionally, the impact of HIV on mortality was most pronounced in younger persons. These factors may be used to identify high-risk individuals requiring intensive follow up, regardless of serostatus.

Trial registration

Clinical Trials.gov Identifier NCT01188941. Registered 26 August 2010.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-019-4373-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Adherence clubs and decentralized medication delivery to support patient retention and sustained viral suppression in care: Results from a cluster-randomized evaluation of differentiated ART delivery models in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Differentiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) delivery models, in which patients are provided with care relevant to their current status (e.g., newly initiating, stable on treatment, or unstable on treatment) has become an essential part of patient-centered health systems. In 2015, the South African government implemented Chronic Disease Adherence Guidelines (AGLs), which involved five interventions: Fast Track Initiation Counseling for newly initiating patients, Enhanced Adherence Counseling for patients with an unsuppressed viral load, Early Tracing of patients who miss visits, and Adherence Clubs (ACs) and Decentralized Medication Delivery (DMD) for stable patients. We evaluated two of these interventions in 24 South African facilities: ACs, in which patients meet in groups outside usual clinic procedures and receive medication; and DMD, in which patients pick up their medication outside usual pharmacy queues.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We compared those participating in ACs or receiving DMD at intervention sites to those eligible for ACs or DMD at control sites. Outcomes were retention and sustained viral suppression (<400 copies/mL) 12 months after AC or DMD enrollment (or comparable time for controls). 12 facilities were randomly allocated to intervention and 12 to control arms in four provinces (Gauteng, North West, Limpopo, and KwaZulu Natal). We calculated adjusted risk differences (aRDs) with cluster adjustment using generalized estimating equations (GEEs) using difference in differences (DiD) with patients eligible for ACs/DMD prior to implementation (Jan 1, 2015) for comparison. For DMD, randomization was not preserved, and the analysis was treated as observational. For ACs, 275 intervention and 294 control patients were enrolled; 72% of patients were female, 61% were aged 30-49 years, and median CD4 count at ART initiation was 268 cells/μL. AC patients had higher 1-year retention (89.5% versus 81.6%, aRD: 8.3%; 95% CI: 1.1% to 15.6%) and comparable sustained 1-year viral suppression (<400 copies/mL any time ≤ 18 months) (80.0% versus 79.6%, aRD: 3.8%; 95% CI: -6.9% to 14.4%). Retention associations were apparently stronger for men than women (men RD: 13.1%, 95% CI: 0.3% to 23.5%; women RD: 6.0%, 95% CI: -0.9% to 12.9%). For DMD, 232 intervention and 346 control patients were enrolled; 71% of patients were female, 65% were aged 30-49 years, and median CD4 count at ART initiation was 270 cells/μL. DMD patients had apparently lower retention (81.5% versus 87.2%, aRD: -5.9%; 95% CI: -12.5% to 0.8%) and comparable viral suppression versus standard of care (77.2% versus 74.3%, aRD: -1.0%; 95% CI: -12.2% to 10.1%), though in both cases, our findings were imprecise. We also noted apparently increased viral suppression among men (RD: 11.1%; 95% CI: -3.4% to 25.5%). The main study limitations were missing data and lack of randomization in the DMD analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we found comparable DMD outcomes versus standard of care at facilities, a benefit for retention of patients in care with ACs, and apparent benefits in terms of retention (for AC patients) and sustained viral suppression (for DMD patients) among men. This suggests the importance of alternative service delivery models for men and of community-based strategies to decongest primary healthcare facilities. Because these strategies also reduce patient inconvenience and decongest clinics, comparable outcomes are a potential success. The cost of all five AGL interventions and possible effects on reducing clinic congestion should be investigated.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT02536768.

Epidemiology and outcome of HIV-infected patients admitted to the ICU in the current highly active antiretroviral therapy era

PURPOSE

To describe the epidemiology of critical disease in HIV-infected patients during the current highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) era and to identify hospital mortality predictors.

METHODS

A longitudinal, retrospective observational study was made of HIV-infected adults admitted to the ICU in two Spanish hospitals between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2014. Demographic and HIV-related variables were analyzed, together with comorbidities, severity scores, reasons for admission and need for organ support. The chi-squared test was used to compare categorical variables, while continuous variables were contrasted with the Student's t-test, Mann-Whitney U-test or Kruskal-Wallis test, assuming an alpha level=0.05. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to calculate odds ratios for assessing correlations to mortality during hospital stay. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to study mortality trends over time.

RESULTS

A total of 283 episodes were included for analyses. Hospital mortality was 32.9% (95%CI: 21.2-38.5). Only admission from a site other than the Emergency Care Department (OR 3.64, 95%CI: 1.30-10.20; p=0.01), moderate-severe liver disease (OR 5.65, 95%CI: 1.11-28.87; p=0.04) and the APACHE II score (OR 1.14, 95%CI: 1.04-1.26; p<0.01) and SOFA score at 72h (OR 1.19, 95%CI: 1.02-1.40; p=0.03) maintained a statistically significant relationship with hospital mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Delayed ICU admission, comorbidities and the severity of critical illness determine the prognosis of HIV-infected patients admitted to the ICU. Based on these data, HIV-infected patients should receive the same level of care as non-HIV-infected patients, regardless of their immunological or nutritional condition.

Treatment effects of the differential first-line antiretroviral regimens among HIV/HBV coinfected patients in southwest China: an observational study

HIV with HBV co-infection can result in greater HIV-related immunosuppression, morbidity and mortality. Currently, there are few studies to evaluate direct treatment effects on mortality and attrition rates between first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) based-on tenofovir (TDF) and/or lamivudine (3TC) in a real-world setting. We used Cox proportional hazard models to evaluate direct treatment effects of the first-line ART containing stavudine (d4T), azidothymidine (AZT) and TDF on death and attrition among HIV patients with HBV coinfection. A total of 3912 patients met study eligibility criteria. The overall mortality rate and attrition rate was 2.85 (95% CI: 2.55-3.16) and 8.87 (95% CI: 8.32-9.41) per 100 person-years, respectively. The ART containing TDF had a significantly lower risk of death [adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) = 0.58, 95% CI: 0.44-0.77] when compared to the ART containing d4T, but the risk of death was not significantly different when compared to the ART containing AZT (AHR = 0.91, 95% CI: 0.69-1.20). Patients with HIV/HBV coinfection receiving the ART containing TDF had significantly lower risk rates of attrition compared to those receiving the ART containing d4T (AHR = 0.72, 95% CI: 0.60-0.86) or AZT (AHR = 0.67, 95% CI: 0.58-0.77). Compared with the ART containing d4T, the ART containing AZT was significant and not significant associated with a lower risk of death and attrition, respectively. The ART containing TDF had significant effects on both of death and attrition among HIV patients with HBV coinfection.

Raltegravir-intensified initial antiretroviral therapy in advanced HIV disease in Africa: A randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

In sub-Saharan Africa, individuals infected with HIV who are severely immunocompromised have high mortality (about 10%) shortly after starting antiretroviral therapy (ART). This group also has the greatest risk of morbidity and mortality associated with immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (IRIS), a paradoxical response to successful ART. Integrase inhibitors lead to significantly more rapid declines in HIV viral load (VL) than all other ART classes. We hypothesised that intensifying standard triple-drug ART with the integrase inhibitor, raltegravir, would reduce HIV VL faster and hence reduce early mortality, although this strategy could also risk more IRIS events.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

In a 2×2×2 factorial open-label parallel-group trial, treatment-naive adults, adolescents, and children >5 years old infected with HIV, with cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) <100 cells/mm3, from eight urban/peri-urban HIV clinics at regional hospitals in Kenya, Malawi, Uganda, and Zimbabwe were randomised 1:1 to initiate standard triple-drug ART, with or without 12-week raltegravir intensification, and followed for 48 weeks. The primary outcome was 24-week mortality, analysed by intention to treat. Of 2,356 individuals screened for eligibility, 1,805 were randomised between 18 June 2013 and 10 April 2015. Of the 1,805 participants, 961 (53.2%) were male, 72 (4.0%) were children/adolescents, median age was 36 years, CD4 count was 37 cells/mm3, and plasma viraemia was 249,770 copies/mL. Fifty-six participants (3.1%) were lost to follow-up at 48 weeks. By 24 weeks, 97/902 (10.9%) raltegravir-intensified ART versus 91/903 (10.2%) standard ART participants had died (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 1.10 [95% CI 0.82-1.46], p = 0.53), with no evidence of interaction with other randomisations (pheterogeneity > 0.7) and despite significantly greater VL suppression with raltegravir-intensified ART at 4 weeks (343/836 [41.0%] versus 113/841 [13.4%] with standard ART, p < 0.001) and 12 weeks (567/789 [71.9%] versus 415/803 [51.7%] with standard ART, p < 0.001). Through 48 weeks, there was no evidence of differences in mortality (aHR = 0.98 [95% CI 0.76-1.28], p = 0.91); in serious (aHR = 0.99 [0.81-1.21], p = 0.88), grade-4 (aHR = 0.88 [0.71-1.09], p = 0.29), or ART-modifying (aHR = 0.90 [0.63-1.27], p = 0.54) adverse events (the latter occurring in 59 [6.5%] participants with raltegravir-intensified ART versus 66 [7.3%] with standard ART); in events judged compatible with IRIS (occurring in 89 [9.9%] participants with raltegravir-intensified ART versus 86 [9.5%] with standard ART, p = 0.79) or in hospitalisations (aHR = 0.94 [95% CI 0.76-1.17], p = 0.59). At 12 weeks, one and two raltegravir-intensified participants had predicted intermediate-level and high-level raltegravir resistance, respectively. At 48 weeks, the nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) mutation K219E/Q (p = 0.004) and the non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) mutations K101E/P (p = 0.03) and P225H (p = 0.007) were less common in virus from participants with raltegravir-intensified ART, with weak evidence of less intermediate- or high-level resistance to tenofovir (p = 0.06), abacavir (p = 0.08), and rilpivirine (p = 0.07). Limitations of the study include limited clinical, radiological, and/or microbiological information for some participants, reflecting available services at the centres, and lack of baseline genotypes.

CONCLUSIONS

Although 12 weeks of raltegravir intensification was well tolerated and reduced HIV viraemia significantly faster than standard triple-drug ART during the time of greatest risk for early death, this strategy did not reduce mortality or clinical events in this group and is not warranted. There was no excess of IRIS-compatible events, suggesting that integrase inhibitors can be used safely as part of standard triple-drug first-line therapy in severely immunocompromised individuals.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01825031.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

International Standard Randomised Controlled Trials Number ISRCTN 43622374.

Effectiveness of interventions for unstable patients on antiretroviral therapy in South Africa: results of a cluster-randomised evaluation

BACKGROUND

As loss from HIV care is an ongoing challenge globally, interventions are needed for patients who don't achieve or maintain ART stability. The 2015 South African National Adherence Guidelines (AGL) for Chronic Diseases include two interventions targeted at unstable patients: early tracing of patients who miss visits (TRIC) and enhanced adherence counselling (EAC).

METHODS

As part of a cluster-randomised evaluation at 12 intervention and 12 control clinics in four provinces, intervention sites implemented the AGL interventions, while control sites retained standard care. We report on outcomes of EAC for patients with an elevated viral load (>400 copies/ml) and for TRIC patients who missed a visit by >5 days. We estimated risk differences (RD) of 3 and 12-month viral resuppression (<400 copies/ml) and 12-month retention with cluster adjustment using generalised estimating equations and controlled for imbalances using difference-in-differences compared to all eligible in 2015, prior to intervention roll-out.

RESULTS

For EAC, we had 358 intervention and 505 control site patients (61% female, median ART initiation CD4 count 154 cells/μl). We found no difference between arms in 3-month resuppression (RD: -1.7%; 95%CI: -4.3% to 0.9%), but <20% of patients had a repeat viral load within 3 months (19.8% intervention, 13.5% control). Including the entire clinic population eligible for EAC with a repeat viral load at all evaluation sites (n = 934), intervention sites showed a small increase in 3-month resuppression (28% vs. 25%, RD 3.0%; 95%CI: -2.7% to 8.8%). Adjusting for baseline differences increased the RD to 8.1% (95% CI: -0.1% to 17.2%). However, we found no differences in 12-month suppression (RD: 1.5%; 95% CI: -14.1% to 17.1% but suppression was low overall at 40%) or retention (RD: 2.8%; 95% CI: -7.5% to 13.2%). For TRIC, we enrolled 155 at intervention sites and 248 at control sites (44% >40 years, 67% female, median CD4 count 212 cells/μl). We found no difference between groups in return to care by 12 months (RD: -6.8%; 95% CI: -17.7% to 4.8%). During the study period, control sites continued to use tracing within standard care, however, potentially masking intervention effects.

CONCLUSIONS

Enhanced adherence counselling showed no benefit over 12 months. Implementation of the tracing intervention under the new guidelines was similar to the standard of care. Interventions that aim to return unstable patients to care should incorporate active monitoring to determine if the interventions are effective.

"My future is bright…I won't die with the cause of AIDS": ten-year patient ART outcomes and experiences in South Africa

INTRODUCTION

South Africa is moving into a new era of HIV treatment with "treat all" policies where people may be on treatment for most of their lives. We need to understand treatment outcomes and facilitators of long-term antiretroviral treatment (ART) adherence and retention-in-care in the South African context. In one of the first studies to investigate long-term treatment outcomes in South Africa, we aimed to describe ten-year patient outcomes at a large public-sector HIV clinic in Johannesburg and explore patient experiences of the treatment programme over this time in order to ascertain factors that may aid or hinder long-term adherence and retention.

METHODS

We conducted a cohort analysis (n = 6644) and in-depth interviews (n = 24) among HIV-positive adults initiating first-line ART between April 2004 and March 2007. Using clinical records, we ascertained twelve-month and ten-year all-cause mortality and loss to follow-up (LTF). Cox proportional hazards regression was used to identify baseline predictors of attrition (mortality and LTF (>3 months late for the last scheduled visit)) at twelve months and ten years. Twenty-four patients were purposively selected and interviewed to explore treatment programme experiences over ten years on ART.

RESULTS

Excluding transfers, 79.5% (95% confidence intervals (CI): 78.5 to 80.5) of the cohort were alive, in care at twelve months dropping to 35.1% (95% CI: 33.7 to 36.4) at ten years. Over 44% of deaths occurred within 12 months. Ten-year all-cause mortality increased, while LTF decreased slightly, with age. Year and age at ART initiation, sex, nationality, baseline CD4 count, anaemia, body mass index and initiating regimen were predictors of ten-year attrition. Among patients interviewed, the pretreatment clinic environment, feelings of gratitude and good fortune, support networks, and self-efficacy were facilitators of care; side effects, travel and worsening clinical conditions were barriers. Participants were generally optimistic about their futures and were committed to continued care.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates the complexities of long-term chronic HIV treatment with declining all-cause mortality and increasing LTF over ten years. Barriers to long-term retention still present a significant challenge. As more people become eligible for ART in South Africa under "treatment for all," new healthcare delivery challenges will arise; interventions are needed to ensure long-term programme successes continue.