Health system costs for individual and comorbid noncommunicable diseases: An analysis of publicly funded health events from New Zealand

Predicting the risk of diabetes complications using machine learning and social administrative data in a country with ethnic inequities in health: Aotearoa New Zealand

BACKGROUND

In the age of big data, linked social and administrative health data in combination with machine learning (ML) is being increasingly used to improve prediction in chronic disease, e.g., cardiovascular diseases (CVD). In this study we aimed to apply ML methods on extensive national-level health and social administrative datasets to assess the utility of these for predicting future diabetes complications, including by ethnicity.

METHODS

Five ML models were used to predict CVD events among all people with known diabetes in the population of New Zealand, utilizing nationwide individual-level administrative data.

RESULTS

The Xgboost ML model had the best predictive power for predicting CVD events three years into the future among the population with diabetes (N = 145,600). The optimization procedure also found limited improvement in prediction by ethnicity (using area under the receiver operating curve, [AUC]). The results indicated no trade-off between model predictive performance and equity gap of prediction by ethnicity (that is improving model prediction and reducing performance gaps by ethnicity can be achieved simultaneously). The list of variables of importance was different among different models/ethnic groups, for example: age, deprivation (neighborhood-level), having had a hospitalization event, and the number of years living with diabetes.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

We provide further evidence that ML with administrative health data can be used for meaningful future prediction of health outcomes. As such, it could be utilized to inform health planning and healthcare resource allocation for diabetes management and the prevention of CVD events. Our results may suggest limited scope for developing prediction models by ethnic group and that the major ways to reduce inequitable health outcomes is probably via improved delivery of prevention and management to those groups with diabetes at highest need.

Policy approaches to decarbonising the transport sector in Aotearoa New Zealand: modelling equity, population health, and health-system effects

BACKGROUND

Health co-benefits are a key potential advantage of transport decarbonisation policy. However, health effects will occur in the context of existing transport-health inequities and decarbonisation policies will themselves affect inequities. This research examines the effects of national decarbonisation pathways for transport on population health, health inequity, and health-system costs in Aotearoa New Zealand.

METHODS

We modelled the health, health-system, and environmental impacts of two pathways to net zero for transport developed by the New Zealand Climate Change Commission using a proportional multistate lifetable model. The behaviour pathway emphasises a mixed approach, including reduced driving, increased cycling and use of public transport, and light vehicle electrification, and the technology pathway focuses on vehicle electrification. We used data from transport, environmental, population health, and health-care sources to populate the model. We simulated changes in health effects through the pathways of physical activity, air pollution (PM2·5 and NO2), and injury for the Aotearoa New Zealand population from 2018 to 2050. We modelled impacts for Māori (the Indigenous People of Aotearoa) and non-Māori. For each pathway to net zero, we calculated changes in overall health-adjusted life-years (HALYs), age-standardised HALYs, and rate ratios for Māori and non-Māori. We also calculated changes in health-system costs and transport greenhouse gas emissions. 95% uncertainty intervals (95% UIs) were derived for all model outputs by use of a Monte Carlo simulation.

FINDINGS

Both pathways show improvements in population health, reductions in health-system costs, and reduced lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions compared with baseline, although health gains were substantially larger in the behaviour pathway. For example, an extra 2100 HALYs (95% UI 1500-3100) were gained in the behaviour scenario compared with baseline. Health gains were 20-30% larger for Māori than non-Māori in both pathways, although more HALYs were gained by Māori in the behaviour pathway. For the cohort aged 0-4 years in 2018, healthy life expectancy differences between Māori and non-Māori reduced by 0·5% in the behaviour pathway over their lifetime. HALYs gained by Māori and non-Māori were altered substantially depending on assumptions about the equity of the implemented pathway.

INTERPRETATION

Decarbonising transport might improve overall population health, save the health system money, and reduce health inequities between Māori and non-Māori. Pathways that increase physical activity have a larger effect on population health than those that rely on low-emission vehicles. The effects on inequity between Māori and non-Māori are larger in the behaviour pathway than in the technology pathway but dependent on how equitably policies supporting decarbonisation are implemented.

FUNDING

Health Research Council of New Zealand and University of Otago.

Long-term cost-effectiveness analysis of rugby fans in training-New Zealand: a body weight reduction programme for males

OBJECTIVES

We sought to extrapolate the long-term costs and clinical impacts attributed to the rugby fans in training-New Zealand (RUFIT-NZ) trial in Aotearoa, New Zealand.

DESIGN

A modelled cost-effectiveness analysis using efficacy data from RUFIT-NZ was conducted from the Aotearoa New Zealand healthcare perspective.

SETTING

A Markov cohort model was constructed with a lifetime time horizon. The model simulated events of myocardial infarction (MI), stroke and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) occurring among a hypothetical cohort of 10 000 individuals receiving either the RUFIT-NZ intervention or no intervention. Efficacy data were based on the RUFIT-NZ trial, and the latest Global Burden of Disease study was used to extrapolate the impact of body weight reduction on clinical outcomes of T2DM, MI or stroke. Cost and utility data were drawn from the RUFIT-NZ trial and published sources.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER).

RESULTS

Over a lifetime time horizon, participants in the RUFIT-NZ intervention gained 0.02 (discounted) quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) at an additional cost of NZ$863, relative to no intervention. The estimated ICER was NZ$49 515 per QALY gained (discounted), which is above the arbitrary willingness-to-pay threshold of NZ$45 000 per QALY. Sensitivity analyses supported the robustness of these findings.

CONCLUSIONS

RUFIT-NZ was associated with a reduction in cardiovascular and endocrine events for overweight and obese males. However, based on conservative assumptions, RUFIT-NZ was unlikely to be cost-effective from a healthcare system perspective.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ACTRN12619000069156.

Influencing factors of hospitalization cost of hypertension patients in traditional Chinese medicine hospitals

Objectives

This study aimed to analyze the influencing factors of hospitalization cost of hypertensive patients in TCM (traditional Chinese medicine, TCM) hospitals, which can provide a scientific basis for hospitals to control the hospitalization cost of hypertension.

Methods

In this study, 3,595 hospitalized patients with a primary diagnosis of tertiary hypertension in Tianshui City Hospital of TCM, Gansu Province, China, from January 2017 to June 2022, were used as research subjects. Using univariate analysis to identify the relevant variables of hospitalization cost, followed by incorporating the statistically significant variables of univariate analysis as independent variables in multiple linear regression analysis, and establishing the path model based on the results of the multiple linear regression finally, to explore the factors influencing hospitalization cost comprehensively.

Results

The results showed that hospitalization cost of hypertension patients were mainly influenced by length of stay, age, admission pathways, payment methods of medical insurance, and visit times, with length of stay being the most critical factor.

Conclusion

The Chinese government should actively exert the characteristics and advantages of TCM in the treatment of chronic diseases such as hypertension, consistently optimize the treatment plans of TCM, effectively reduce the length of stay and steadily improve the health literacy level of patients, to alleviate the illnesses pain and reduce the economic burden of patients.

Comorbidity of patients with noncommunicable diseases in general practice. Eurasian guidelines

Создание руководства поддержано Советом по терапевтическим наукам отделения клинической медицины Российской академии наук.

The growing cancer burden: Age-period-cohort projections in Aotearoa New Zealand 2020-2044

BACKGROUND

Cancer is a major cause of premature death and inequity, and global case numbers are rapidly expanding. This study projects future cancer numbers and incidence rates in Aotearoa New Zealand.

METHODS

Age-period-cohort modelling was applied to 25-years of national data to project cancer cases and incidence trends from 2020 to 2044. Nationally mandated cancer registry data and official historical and projected population estimates were used, with sub-groups by age, sex, and ethnicity.

RESULTS

Cancer diagnoses were projected to increase from 25,700 per year in 2015-2019 to 45,100 a year by 2040-44, a 76% increase (2.3% per annum). Across the same period, age-standardised cancer incidence increased by 9% (0.3% per annum) from 348 to 378 cancers per 100,000 person years, with greater increases for males (11%) than females (6%). Projected incidence trends varied substantially by cancer type, with several projected to change faster or in the opposite direction compared to projections from other countries.

CONCLUSIONS

Increasing cancer numbers reinforces the critical need for both cancer prevention and treatment service planning activities. Investment in developing new ways of working and increasing the workforce are required for the health system to be able to afford and manage the future burden of cancer.

Multimorbidity healthcare expenditure in Belgium: a 4-year analysis (COMORB study)

BACKGROUND

The complex management of health needs in multimorbid patients, alongside limited cost data, presents challenges in developing cost-effective patient-care pathways. We estimated the costs of managing 171 dyads and 969 triads in Belgium, taking into account the influence of morbidity interactions on costs.

METHODS

We followed a retrospective longitudinal study design, using the linked Belgian Health Interview Survey 2018 and the administrative claim database 2017-2020 hosted by the Intermutualistic Agency. We included people aged 15 and older, who had complete profiles (N = 9753). Applying a system costing perspective, the average annual direct cost per person per dyad/triad was presented in 2022 Euro and comprised mainly direct medical costs. We developed mixed models to analyse the impact of single chronic conditions, dyads and triads on healthcare costs, considering two-/three-way interactions within dyads/triads, key cost determinants and clustering at the household level.

RESULTS

People with multimorbidity constituted nearly half of the study population and their total healthcare cost constituted around three quarters of the healthcare cost of the study population. The most common dyad, arthropathies + dorsopathies, with a 14% prevalence rate, accounted for 11% of the total national health expenditure. The most frequent triad, arthropathies + dorsopathies + hypertension, with a 5% prevalence rate, contributed 5%. The average annual direct costs per person with dyad and triad were €3515 (95% CI 3093-3937) and €4592 (95% CI 3920-5264), respectively. Dyads and triads associated with cancer, diabetes, chronic fatigue, and genitourinary problems incurred the highest costs. In most cases, the cost associated with multimorbidity was lower or not substantially different from the combined cost of the same conditions observed in separate patients.

CONCLUSION

Prevalent morbidity combinations, rather than high-cost ones, made a greater contribution to total national health expenditure. Our study contributes to the sparse evidence on this topic globally and in Europe, with the aim of improving cost-effective care for patients with diverse needs.

Healthy lifestyle decreases the risk of the first incidence of non-communicable chronic disease and its progression to multimorbidity and its mediating roles of metabolic components: a prospective cohort study in China

OBJECTIVES

To identify the influence of healthy lifestyles on the incidence of the first NCD (FNCD), multiple chronic conditions (MCCs), and the progression from FNCD to MCCs.

DESIGN

cohort study.

SETTING

Zhejiang, China PARTICIPANTS: 10566 subjects (55.5 ± 13.5 years, 43.1% male) free of NCDs at baseline from the Zhejiang Metabolic Syndrome prospective cohort.

MEASUREMENTS

Healthy lifestyle score (HLS) was developed by 6 common healthy lifestyle factors as smoking, alcohol drinking, physical activity, body mass index (BMI) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR). Healthy lifestyle data and metabolic biomarkers collected via a face-to-face questionnaire-based interview, clinical health examination and routine biochemical determination. Biochemical variables were determined using biochemical auto-analyzer. Participants were stratified into four group based on the levels of HLS as ≤2, 3, 4 and ≥5. Multiple Cox proportional hazards model was applied to examine the relationship between HLS and the risk of FNCD, MCCs and the progression from FNCD to MCCs. The population-attributable fractions (PAF) were used to assess the attributable role of HLS. Mediating effect was examined by mediation package in R.

RESULTS

After a median of 9.92 years of follow-up, 1572 participants (14.9%) developed FNCD, and 149 (1.4%) developed MCCs. In the fully adjusted model, the higher HLS group (≥5) was associated with lower risk of FNCD (HR = 0.68 and 95% CI: 0.56-0.82), MCCs (HR = 0.31 and 95%CI: 0.14-0.69); and the progression from FNCD to MCCs (HR = 0.39 and 95%CI: 0.18-0.85). Metabolic components (TC, TG, HDL-C, LDC-C, FPG, and UA) played the mediating roles with the proportion ranging from 5.02% to 22.2% for FNCD and 5.94% to 20.1% for MCCs. PAFs (95%CI) for poor adherence to the overall healthy lifestyle (HLS ≤ 3) were 17.5% (11.2%, 23.7%) for FNCD, 42.9% (23.4%, 61.0%) for MCCs, and 37.0% (15.5%, 56.3%) for the progression from FNCD to MCCs.

CONCLUSIONS

High HLS decreases the risk of FNCD, MCCs, and the progression from FNCD to MCCs. These effects are partially mediated by metabolic components. Maintaining healthy lifestyles might reduce the disease burden of common chronic diseases.

Commonalities and differences in carotid body dysfunction in hypertension and heart failure

Carotid body pathophysiology is associated with many cardiovascular-respiratory-metabolic diseases. This pathophysiology reflects both hyper-sensitivity and hyper-tonicity. From both animal models and human patients, evidence indicates that amelioration of this pathophysiological signalling improves disease states such as a lowering of blood pressure in hypertension, a reduction of breathing disturbances with improved cardiac function in heart failure (HF) and a re-balancing of autonomic activity with lowered sympathetic discharge. Given this, we have reviewed the mechanisms of carotid body hyper-sensitivity and hyper-tonicity across disease models asking whether there is uniqueness related to specific disease states. Our analysis indicates some commonalities and some potential differences, although not all mechanisms have been fully explored across all disease models. One potential commonality is that of hypoperfusion of the carotid body across hypertension and HF, where the excessive sympathetic drive may reduce blood flow in both models and, in addition, lowered cardiac output in HF may potentiate the hypoperfusion state of the carotid body. Other mechanisms are explored that focus on neurotransmitter and signalling pathways intrinsic to the carotid body (e.g. ATP, carbon monoxide) as well as extrinsic molecules carried in the blood (e.g. leptin); there are also transcription factors found in the carotid body endothelium that modulate its activity (Krüppel-like factor 2). The evidence to date fully supports that a better understanding of the mechanisms of carotid body pathophysiology is a fruitful strategy for informing potential new treatment strategies for many cardiovascular, respiratory and metabolic diseases, and this is highly relevant clinically.

Economic effects of dietary salt reduction policies for cardiovascular disease prevention in Japan: a simulation study of hypothetical scenarios

Objective

Reducing dietary salt intake is an essential population strategy for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention, but evidence on healthcare costs and outcomes is limited in Japan. We aimed to conduct a pilot economic evaluation under hypothetical scenarios of applying the salt reduction policies of England to Japan.

Methods

We examined salt reduction policies in England: media health promotion campaigns, front-of-pack labeling, and voluntary and mandatory reformulation with best-case and worst-case policy cost scenarios. We assumed that these policies were conducted in Japan for 10 years from 2019. We used published data on epidemiology and healthcare expenditures in Japan and the costs and effects of salt reduction policies in England, and defined the benefits as a decrease in national medical expenditures on CVD. We developed a Markov cohort simulation model of the Japanese population. To estimate the annual net benefits of each policy over 10 years, we subtracted monitoring and policy costs from the benefits. We adopted a health sector perspective and a 2% discount rate.

Results

The cumulative net benefit over 10 years was largest for mandatory reformulation (best case) at 2,015.1 million USD (with costs of USD 48.3 million and benefits of USD 2063.5 million), followed by voluntary reformulation (net benefit: USD 1,895.1 million, cost: USD 48.1 million, benefit: USD 1,943.2 million), mandatory reformulation (worst case, net benefit: USD 1,447.9 million, cost: USD 1,174.5 million, benefit: USD 2,622.3 million), labeling (net benefit: USD 159.5 million, cost: USD 91.6 million, benefit: USD 251.0 million), and a media campaign (net benefit: USD 140.5 million, cost: USD 110.5 million, benefit: USD 251.0 million). There was no change in the superiority or inferiority of policies when the uncertainty of model parameters was considered.

Conclusion

Mandatory reformulation with the best-case cost scenario might be economically preferable to the other alternatives in Japan. In future research, domestic data on costs and effects of salt reduction policies should be incorporated for model refinement.

Effect of multiple chronic conditions on family doctor contracting in the elderly in China: the moderating role of socioeconomic status

BACKGROUND

China's family doctor contracting service is an important part of deepening the reform of the healthcare systems, aiming to further develop chronic disease management services, enhance the capacity of primary health care services and improve the health of residents. The purpose of this study was to explore the influence of multiple chronic conditions in the elderly on family doctor contracting and whether socioeconomic status played a moderating role.

METHODS

A cross-sectional survey was conducted in Beijing, China. A total of 1814 elderly people over 60 years old were included in this study using a whole-group sampling method. The univariate analysis and logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the data.

RESULTS

21.72% of the elderly signed up with family doctors. The multiple chronic conditions was a factor influencing the elderly to sign up with family doctors (OR = 1.44, 95%CI = 1.28-1.61), and the higher the degree of multiple chronic conditions, the stronger willingness to sign up. Socioeconomic status positively moderates the effect of multiple chronic conditions on signing. Also, physical activity intensity (OR = 1.25, 95%CI = 1.03-1.54) and willingness to first visit primary care facilities (OR = 1.38, 95%CI = 1.25-1.54) influenced the elderly to sign up with family doctors.

CONCLUSIONS

The elderly with a high degree of multiple chronic conditions, high activity intensity, and a strong willingness to first visit primary care facilities were more likely to sign up with family doctors. The health literacy of the elderly should be further improved, and publicity on the family doctor contracting service policies for the elderly with lower socioeconomic status should be strengthened to guide them to sign up with family doctors. At the same time, the service capacity of primary care facilities should be further improved to meet the health needs of the elderly.

Disease-specific health spending by age, sex, and type of care in Norway: a national health registry study

BACKGROUND

Norway is a high-income nation with universal tax-financed health care and among the highest per person health spending in the world. This study estimates Norwegian health expenditures by health condition, age, and sex, and compares it with disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs).

METHODS

Government budgets, reimbursement databases, patient registries, and prescription databases were combined to estimate spending for 144 health conditions, 38 age and sex groups, and eight types of care (GPs; physiotherapists & chiropractors; specialized outpatient; day patient; inpatient; prescription drugs; home-based care; and nursing homes) totaling 174,157,766 encounters. Diagnoses were in accordance with the Global Burden of Disease study (GBD). The spending estimates were adjusted, by redistributing excess spending associated with each comorbidity. Disease-specific DALYs were gathered from GBD 2019.

RESULTS

The top five aggregate causes of Norwegian health spending in 2019 were mental and substance use disorders (20.7%), neurological disorders (15.4%), cardiovascular diseases (10.1%), diabetes, kidney, and urinary diseases (9.0%), and neoplasms (7.2%). Spending increased sharply with age. Among 144 health conditions, dementias had the highest health spending, with 10.2% of total spending, and 78% of this spending was incurred at nursing homes. The second largest was falls estimated at 4.6% of total spending. Spending in those aged 15-49 was dominated by mental and substance use disorders, with 46.0% of total spending. Accounting for longevity, spending per female was greater than spending per male, particularly for musculoskeletal disorders, dementias, and falls. Spending correlated well with DALYs (Correlation r = 0.77, 95% CI 0.67-0.87), and the correlation of spending with non-fatal disease burden (r = 0.83, 0.76-0.90) was more pronounced than with mortality (r = 0.58, 0.43-0.72).

CONCLUSIONS

Health spending was high for long-term disabilities in older age groups. Research and development into more effective interventions for the disabling high-cost diseases is urgently needed.

Healthcare professional students' perceptions of supporting patient self-management: A mixed method study

OBJECTIVES

Individuals self-manage chronic illnesses daily with episodic support provided by healthcare professionals. Learning about supporting self-management should be part of healthcare professional student programme curricular and training. However, little is known about the perceptions and attitudes students hold about supporting patient self-management and whether support for self-management is implemented on clinical placement.

METHODS

A mixed method approach explored students' perceptions and attitudes to supporting patient self-management via e-survey and semi-structured interviews.

RESULTS

Survey data (n = 96; 11 programmes) were analysed descriptively and interviews thematically (n = 10; F = 9; aged 19-34 years; 8 programmes). Survey data suggested participants had a positive attitude towards, and were confident in providing support for self-management, but did not implement it frequently in clinical environments. One main theme "Self-management support is puzzling" identified the uncertainty around what students thought their role was or how to enact support within the patient interaction. A smaller theme "Self-management support is valuable" showed participants were open to learning more about how to support patient self-management.

DISCUSSION

We suggest more explicit and frequent learning opportunities need to be provided for healthcare professional students to learn how to support patient self-management, with particular emphasis on involving family and incorporating self-management tools within the patient encounter.

Estimating health spending associated with chronic multimorbidity in 2018: An observational study among adults in the United States

BACKGROUND

The rise in health spending in the United States and the prevalence of multimorbidity-having more than one chronic condition-are interlinked but not well understood. Multimorbidity is believed to have an impact on an individual's health spending, but how having one specific additional condition impacts spending is not well established. Moreover, most studies estimating spending for single diseases rarely adjust for multimorbidity. Having more accurate estimates of spending associated with each disease and different combinations could aid policymakers in designing prevention policies to more effectively reduce national health spending. This study explores the relationship between multimorbidity and spending from two distinct perspectives: (1) quantifying spending on different disease combinations; and (2) assessing how spending on a single diseases changes when we consider the contribution of multimorbidity (i.e., additional/reduced spending that could be attributed in the presence of other chronic conditions).

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We used data on private claims from Truven Health MarketScan Research Database, with 16,288,894 unique enrollees ages 18 to 64 from the US, and their annual inpatient and outpatient diagnoses and spending from 2018. We selected conditions that have an average duration of greater than one year among all Global Burden of Disease causes. We used penalized linear regression with stochastic gradient descent approach to assess relationship between spending and multimorbidity, including all possible disease combinations with two or three different conditions (dyads and triads) and for each condition after multimorbidity adjustment. We decomposed the change in multimorbidity-adjusted spending by the type of combination (single, dyads, and triads) and multimorbidity disease category. We defined 63 chronic conditions and observed that 56.2% of the study population had at least two chronic conditions. Approximately 60.1% of disease combinations had super-additive spending (e.g., spending for the combination was significantly greater than the sum of the individual diseases), 15.7% had additive spending, and 23.6% had sub-additive spending (e.g., spending for the combination was significantly less than the sum of the individual diseases). Relatively frequent disease combinations (higher observed prevalence) with high estimated spending were combinations that included endocrine, metabolic, blood, and immune disorders (EMBI disorders), chronic kidney disease, anemias, and blood cancers. When looking at multimorbidity-adjusted spending for single diseases, the following had the highest spending per treated patient and were among those with high observed prevalence: chronic kidney disease ($14,376 [12,291,16,670]), cirrhosis ($6,465 [6,090,6,930]), ischemic heart disease (IHD)-related heart conditions ($6,029 [5,529,6,529]), and inflammatory bowel disease ($4,697 [4,594,4,813]). Relative to unadjusted single-disease spending estimates, 50 conditions had higher spending after adjusting for multimorbidity, 7 had less than 5% difference, and 6 had lower spending after adjustment.

CONCLUSIONS

We consistently found chronic kidney disease and IHD to be associated with high spending per treated case, high observed prevalence, and contributing the most to spending when in combination with other chronic conditions. In the midst of a surging health spending globally, and especially in the US, pinpointing high-prevalence, high-spending conditions and disease combinations, as especially conditions that are associated with larger super-additive spending, could help policymakers, insurers, and providers prioritize and design interventions to improve treatment effectiveness and reduce spending.

Multidisciplinary Guidelines for the Rational Use of Topical Non-Steroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drugs for Musculoskeletal Pain (2022)

(1) Background: Topical non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are one of the primary drugs for treating musculoskeletal pain. However, there are currently no evidence-based recommendations about drug selection, drug administration, drug interactions, and use in special populations or other pharmacology-related content of such medications. To this end, the Chinese Pharmaceutical Association Hospital Pharmacy Professional Committee developed multidisciplinary guidelines on using topical NSAIDs to treat musculoskeletal pain. (2) Methods: The guidelines development process followed the World Health Organization guideline development handbook, the GRADE methodology, and the statement of Reporting Items for Practice Guidelines in Healthcare. The guideline panel used the Delphi method to identify six clinical questions to be addressed in the guidelines. An independent systematic review team conducted a systematic search and integration of evidence. (3) Results: Based on the balance between the benefits and harms of an intervention, the quality of the evidence, patient preferences and values, and resource utilization, the guideline panel developed 11 recommendations and nine expert consensuses on using topical NSAIDs to treat acute and chronic musculoskeletal pain. (4) Conclusions: Based on the effectiveness and overall safety of topical NSAIDs, we recommend patients with musculoskeletal pain use topical NSAIDs and suggest high-risk patients use topical NSAIDs, such as those with other diseases or receiving other concurrent treatments. The evidenced-based guidelines on topical NSAIDs for musculoskeletal pain incorporated a pharmacist perspective. The guidelines have the potential to facilitate the rational use of topical NSAIDs. The guideline panel will monitor the relevant evidence and update the recommendations accordingly.

Predicting high health-cost users among people with cardiovascular disease using machine learning and nationwide linked social administrative datasets

OBJECTIVES

To optimise planning of public health services, the impact of high-cost users needs to be considered. However, most of the existing statistical models for costs do not include many clinical and social variables from administrative data that are associated with elevated health care resource use, and are increasingly available. This study aimed to use machine learning approaches and big data to predict high-cost users among people with cardiovascular disease (CVD).

METHODS

We used nationally representative linked datasets in New Zealand to predict CVD prevalent cases with the most expensive cost belonging to the top quintiles by cost. We compared the performance of four popular machine learning models (L1-regularised logistic regression, classification trees, k-nearest neighbourhood (KNN) and random forest) with the traditional regression models.

RESULTS

The machine learning models had far better accuracy in predicting high health-cost users compared with the logistic models. The harmony score F1 (combining sensitivity and positive predictive value) of the machine learning models ranged from 30.6% to 41.2% (compared with 8.6-9.1% for the logistic models). Previous health costs, income, age, chronic health conditions, deprivation, and receiving a social security benefit were among the most important predictors of the CVD high-cost users.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides additional evidence that machine learning can be used as a tool together with big data in health economics for identification of new risk factors and prediction of high-cost users with CVD. As such, machine learning may potentially assist with health services planning and preventive measures to improve population health while potentially saving healthcare costs.

Income and economic productivity loss associated with comorbidity: longitudinal analysis of linked individual-level data for a whole country

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the income loss from having two or more diseases, over and above the independent and separate effects of having a single disease.

METHODS

We used linked health income data from 2006-2007 to 2015-2016 for 25-64 years, for the entire New Zealand population. Fixed effects OLS regression was used to estimate within-individual income loss for diseases separately, and to estimate if having two or more diseases together resulted in reduced (subadditive) or additional (superadditive) income impacts (relative to adding together the income impacts for each disease when experienced singly).

RESULTS

Of the 169 comorbidity pairs for both sexes, 28 (17%) had a statistically significant superadditive (n=14) or subadditive (n=14) effect of having two diseases. The combined total income gain from deleting all diseases and comorbidities was US$2.269 billion (95% CI US$$2.125 to US$2.389 billion), or a 3.61% (95% CI 3.38% to 3.80%) increase in income. Of this, 8.8% or US$200 million (95% CI US$193 to US$207 million) was attributable to a tendency for comorbidity interactions to increase income loss more than expected for common disease pairings.

CONCLUSIONS

This national longitudinal study found that disease is associated with income loss, but most of this impact is due to the distinct and independent impact of separate diseases. Nevertheless, there was a tendency for two or more diseases to disproportionately increase income loss more than the summed impacts of each of these diseases if experienced singly.

Disease-Related Loss to Government Funding: Longitudinal Analysis of Individual-Level Health and Tax Data for an Entire Country

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this longitudinal analysis was to estimate funding loss in terms of tax revenue to the New Zealand (NZ) government from disease and injury among working age adults.

METHODS

Linked national health and tax data sets of the usually resident population between 2006 and 2016 were used to model 40 disease states simultaneously in a fixed-effects regression analysis to estimate population-level tax loss from disease and injury. To estimate tax revenue loss to the NZ government, we modeled a counterfactual scenario where all disease/injury was cause deleted.

RESULTS

The estimated tax paid by all 25- to 64-year-olds in the eligible NZ population was $15 773 million (m) per annum (US dollar 2021), or $16 446 m for a counterfactual as though no one had any disease disease-related income loss (a 4.3% or $672.9 m increase in tax revenue per annum). The disease that-if it had no impact on income-generated the greatest impact was mental illness, contributing 34.7% ($233.3 m) of all disease-related tax loss, followed by cardiovascular (14.7%, $99.0 m) and endocrine (10.2%, $68.8 m). Tax revenue gains after deleting all disease/injury increased up to 65 years of age, with the largest contributor occurring among 60- to 64-year-olds ($131.7 m). Varied results were also observed among different ethnicities and differing levels of deprivation.

CONCLUSIONS

This study finds considerable variation by disease on worker productivity and therefore tax revenue in this high-income country. These findings strengthen the economic and government case for prevention, particularly the prevention of mental health conditions and cardiovascular disease.

Prioritization of intervention domains to prevent cardiovascular disease: a country-level case study using global burden of disease and local data

AIM

We aimed to combine Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study data and local data to identify the highest priority intervention domains for preventing cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the case study country of Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ).

METHODS

Risk factor data for CVD in NZ were extracted from the GBD using the "GBD Results Tool." We prioritized risk factor domains based on consideration of the size of the health burden (disability-adjusted life years [DALYs]) and then by the domain-specific interventions that delivered the highest health gains and cost-savings.

RESULTS

Based on the size of the CVD health burden in DALYs, the five top prioritized risk factor domains were: high systolic blood pressure (84,800 DALYs; 5400 deaths in 2019), then dietary risk factors, then high LDL cholesterol, then high BMI and then tobacco (30,400 DALYs; 1400 deaths). But if policy-makers aimed to maximize health gain and cost-savings from specific interventions that have been studied, then they would favor the dietary risk domain (e.g., a combined fruit and vegetable subsidy plus a sugar tax produced estimated lifetime savings of 894,000 health-adjusted life years and health system cost-savings of US$11.0 billion; both 3% discount rate). Other potential considerations for prioritization included the potential for total health gain that includes non-CVD health loss and potential for achieving relatively greater per capita health gain for Māori (Indigenous) to reduce health inequities.

CONCLUSIONS

We were able to show how CVD risk factor domains could be systematically prioritized using a mix of GBD and country-level data. Addressing high systolic blood pressure would be the top ranked domain if policy-makers focused just on the size of the health loss. But if policy-makers wished to maximize health gain and cost-savings using evaluated interventions, dietary interventions would be prioritized, e.g., food taxes and subsidies.

Estimating non-communicable disease treatment costs using probability-based cost estimation

The burden and impact of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are well documented, accounting for 70% of premature deaths globally. In Sub-Saharan Africa, rising NCDs are estimated to account for 27% of mortality by 2020, a 4% increase from 2005. This increase will inevitably lead to a higher demand for NCD treatment services, exerting pressure on limited public financial resources. To get a sense of the resources required to treat NCDs, it is necessary to estimate the costs associated with the diagnosis, treatment and management thereof. Typically, in estimating costs for health services, countries use historical patient level data combined with demographic trend data and non-patient level data to arrive at estimated future costs. This methodology relies heavily on the availability of data from a wide variety of sources stretching beyond the health sector. Low-and-middle-income countries often lack the requisite data and are compelled to use less efficient ways to determine resource allocation. This study explores the use of probability-based cost estimation to estimate the cost of delivering NCD treatment services in South Africa, one such data-poor environment.Probability-based cost estimation, in combination with deterministic cost estimation, is used in arriving at a cost estimate for NCD treatment services at primary healthcare facility level. On its own, deterministic cost estimation can determine total costs, provided all the input variables are known. This is not always possible because of the lack of one or more input variables. In most instances, the lacking input variable is the quantities at which specific conditions will be treated. This problem is addressed by using probability-based cost estimation through which a mean cost is calculated and applied to the target population as a whole, eliminating the need for quantities per condition. Thus, this model contains both deterministic and probabilistic cost estimation elements.

Metabolic syndrome severity score (MetSSS) associates with metabolic health status in multi-ethnic Aotearoa New Zealand cohorts

AIM

To investigate the relationship of metabolic syndrome severity score (MetSSS) with glucose regulatory and cardiovascular disease (CVD) status in Aotearoa New Zealand.

METHODS

MetSSS and MetSSS component coefficients were calculated for participants from the cross-sectional Workforce Diabetes Study (WDS) (n = 5,806) and Diabetes, Heart and Health Survey (DHAH) (n = 4,010) and compared by ethnicity (European, Māori, Pacific and Asian), glucose regulatory status [impaired fasting glucose, impaired glucose tolerance and type 2 diabetes) and history of cardiovascular disease.

RESULTS

MetSSS positively associated with impaired glucose regulatory status and history of cardiovascular disease for all ethnic groups. Ethnicity significantly affected different coefficients of the MetSSS components, however all ethnicities had an approximately normal MetSSS distribution, with Māori and Pacific curves being right-shifted compared to European. While the MetSSS thresholds that capture 80% of participant with type 2 diabetes (T2D) were higher for Māori and Pacific, the difference in MetSSS between those participants with and without type 2 diabetes within an ethnicity group was similar across ethnicities.

CONCLUSION

MetSSS may have utility as a tool to quantify an individual's cardiometabolic disease risk within the multi-ethnic population of Aotearoa New Zealand, however ethnic-specific categories for disease risk are likely to be required.

Are social isolation, lack of social support or loneliness risk factors for cardiovascular disease in Australia and New Zealand? A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

An international systematic review concluded that individuals with poor social health (social isolation, lack of social support or loneliness) are 30% more likely to develop coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. Notably, the two included Australian papers reported no association between social health and CHD or stroke.

OBJECTIVE

We undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate the association between social isolation, lack of social support and loneliness and cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence among people living in Australia and New Zealand.

METHODS

Four electronic databases were systematically searched for longitudinal studies published until June 2020. Two reviewers undertook title/abstract screen and one reviewer undertook full-text screen and data extraction. Quality was assessed using the Newcastle - Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale.

RESULTS

Of the 725 unique records retrieved, five papers met our inclusion criteria. These papers reported data from three Australian longitudinal datasets, with a total of 2137 CHD and 590 stroke events recorded over follow-up periods ranging from 3 to 16 years. Reports of two CHD and two stroke outcomes were suitable for meta-analysis. The included papers reported no association between social health and incidence of CVD in all fully adjusted models and most unadjusted models.

CONCLUSIONS

Our systematic review is inconclusive as it identified only a few studies, which relied heavily on self-reported CVD. Further studies using medical diagnosis of CVD, and assessing the potential influence of residential remoteness, are needed to better understand the relationship between social health and CVD incidence in Australia and New Zealand.

The Economic Burden of Disease in France From the National Health Insurance Perspective: The Healthcare Expenditures and Conditions Mapping Used to Prepare the French Social Security Funding Act and the Public Health Act

BACKGROUND

Identifying the most frequently treated and the costliest health conditions is essential for prioritizing actions to improve the resilience of health systems.

OBJECTIVES

Healthcare Expenditures and Conditions Mapping describes the annual economic burden of 58 health conditions to prepare the French Social Security Funding Act and the Public Health Act.

DESIGN

Annual cross-sectional study (2015-2019) based on the French national health database.

SUBJECTS

National health insurance beneficiaries (97% of the French residents).

MEASURES

All individual health care expenditures reimbursed by the national health insurance were attributed to 58 health conditions (treated diseases, chronic treatments, and episodes of care) identified by using algorithms based on available medical information (diagnosis coded during hospital stays, long-term diseases, and specific drugs).

RESULTS

In 2019, €167.0 billion were reimbursed to 66.3 million people (52% women, median age: 42 y). The most prevalent treated diseases were diabetes (6.0%), chronic respiratory diseases (5.5%), and coronary diseases (3.2%). Coronary diseases accounted for 4.6% of expenditures, neurotic and mood disorders 3.7%, psychotic disorders 2.8%, and breast cancer 2.1%. Between 2015 and 2019, the expenditures increased primarily for diabetes (+€906 million) and neurotic and mood disorders (+€861 million) due to the growing number of patients. "Active lung cancer" (+€797 million) represented the highest relative increase (+54%) due to expenditures for the expensive drugs and medical devices delivered at hospital.

CONCLUSIONS

These results have provided policy-makers, evaluators, and public health specialists with key insights into identifying health priorities and a better understanding of trends in health care expenditures in France.

Costs of multimorbidity: a systematic review and meta-analyses

BACKGROUND

Multimorbidity is a rising global phenomenon, placing strains on countries' population health and finances. This systematic review provides insight into the costs of multimorbidity through addressing the following primary and secondary research questions: What evidence exists on the costs of multimorbidity? How do costs of specific disease combinations vary across countries? How do multimorbidity costs vary across disease combinations? What "cost ingredients" are most commonly included in these multimorbidity studies?

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review (PROSPERO: CRD42020204871) of studies published from January 2010 to January 2022, which reported on costs associated with combinations of at least two specified conditions. Systematic string-based searches were conducted in MEDLINE, The Cochrane Library, SCOPUS, Global Health, Web of Science, and Business Source Complete. We explored the association between costs of multimorbidity and country Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita using a linear mixed model with random intercept. Annual mean direct medical costs per capita were pooled in fixed-effects meta-analyses for each of the frequently reported dyads. Costs are reported in 2021 International Dollars (I$).

RESULTS

Fifty-nine studies were included in the review, the majority of which were from high-income countries, particularly the United States. (1) Reported annual costs of multimorbidity per person ranged from I$800 to I$150,000, depending on disease combination, country, cost ingredients, and other study characteristics. (2) Our results further demonstrated that increased country GDP per capita was associated with higher costs of multimorbidity. (3) Meta-analyses of 15 studies showed that on average, dyads which featured Hypertension were among the least expensive to manage, with the most expensive dyads being Respiratory and Mental Health condition (I$36,840), Diabetes and Heart/vascular condition (I$37,090), and Cancer and Mental Health condition in the first year after cancer diagnosis (I$85,820). (4) Most studies reported only direct medical costs, such as costs of hospitalization, outpatient care, emergency care, and drugs.

CONCLUSIONS

Multimorbidity imposes a large economic burden on both the health system and society, most notably for patients with cancer and mental health condition in the first year after cancer diagnosis. Whether the cost of a disease combination is more or less than the additive costs of the component diseases needs to be further explored. Multimorbidity costing studies typically consider only a limited number of disease combinations, and few have been conducted in low- and middle-income countries and Europe. Rigorous and standardized methods of data collection and costing for multimorbidity should be developed to provide more comprehensive and comparable evidence for the costs of multimorbidity.

The Effect of a Future-Self Avatar Mobile Health Intervention (FutureMe) on Physical Activity and Food Purchases: Randomized Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND

Insufficient physical activity and unhealthy diets are contributing to the rise in noncommunicable diseases. Preventative mobile health (mHealth) interventions may help reverse this trend, but present bias might reduce their effectiveness. Future-self avatar interventions have resulted in behavior change in related fields, yet evidence of whether such interventions can change health behavior is lacking.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to investigate the impact of a future-self avatar mHealth intervention on physical activity and food purchasing behavior and examine the feasibility of a novel automated nutrition tracking system. We also aimed to understand how this intervention impacts related attitudinal and motivational constructs.

METHODS

We conducted a 12-week parallel randomized controlled trial (RCT), followed by semistructured interviews. German-speaking smartphone users aged ≥18 years living in Switzerland and using at least one of the two leading Swiss grocery loyalty cards, were recruited for the trial. Data were collected from November 2020 to April 2021. The intervention group received the FutureMe intervention, a physical activity and food purchase tracking mobile phone app that uses a future-self avatar as the primary interface and provides participants with personalized food basket analysis and shopping tips. The control group received a conventional text- and graphic-based primary interface intervention. We pioneered a novel system to track nutrition by leveraging digital receipts from loyalty card data and analyzing food purchases in a fully automated way. Data were consolidated in 4-week intervals, and nonparametric tests were conducted to test for within- and between-group differences.

RESULTS

We recruited 167 participants, and 95 eligible participants were randomized into either the intervention (n=42) or control group (n=53). The median age was 44 years (IQR 19), and the gender ratio was balanced (female 52/95, 55%). Attrition was unexpectedly high with only 30 participants completing the intervention, negatively impacting the statistical power. The FutureMe intervention led to small statistically insignificant increases in physical activity (median +242 steps/day) and small insignificant improvements in the nutritional quality of food purchases (median -1.28 British Food Standards Agency Nutrient Profiling System Dietary Index points) at the end of the intervention. Intrinsic motivation significantly increased (P=.03) in the FutureMe group, but decreased in the control group. Outcome expectancy directionally increased in the FutureMe group, but decreased in the control group. Leveraging loyalty card data to track the nutritional quality of food purchases was found to be a feasible and accepted fully automated nutrition tracking system.

CONCLUSIONS

Preventative future-self avatar mHealth interventions promise to encourage improvements in physical activity and food purchasing behavior in healthy population groups. A full-powered RCT is needed to confirm this preliminary evidence and to investigate how future-self avatars might be modified to reduce attrition, overcome present bias, and promote sustainable behavior change.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04505124; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04505124.

Mitigating Risk Associated With the Transition From Pediatric to Adult Kidney Transplant Care: Strategies to Promote Success

Young adult kidney transplant recipients experience poorer outcomes. Specifically worse allograft survival has been reported in the United States and worldwide. Pediatric to adult transition-related research has focused predominantly on medication nonadherence. However, the cause of worse graft outcomes in young adults is likely due to a multitude of complex factors. Consensus guidelines were issued to guide pediatric and adult transplant teams during the transition process. To what extent these transition guidelines are utilized and their impact on improving outcomes for young adult patients is unclear. The consensus guidelines serve as a useful resource, but investigation of the potential barriers to putting these transition guidelines into practice is lacking. One must consider the unique needs of medically complex patients, financial disincentives to transition programs, paucity of evidence-based data to support individual aspects of a transition program and their impact on transition success, and absence of strategies to address health care disparities, all of which can have a multiplicative risk for this population. Key transition research is needed to yield evidence-based data to support transition practices that are successful and truly improve outcomes in this high-risk transplant population. It will also allow better stewardship of transplant organs by optimizing outcomes and allograft longevity.

Disease-related income and economic productivity loss in New Zealand: A longitudinal analysis of linked individual-level data

BACKGROUND

Reducing disease can maintain personal individual income and improve societal economic productivity. However, estimates of income loss for multiple diseases simultaneously with thorough adjustment for confounding are lacking, to our knowledge. We estimate individual-level income loss for 40 conditions simultaneously by phase of diagnosis, and the total income loss at the population level (a function of how common the disease is and the individual-level income loss if one has the disease).

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We used linked health tax data for New Zealand as a high-income country case study, from 2006 to 2007 to 2015 to 2016 for 25- to 64-year-olds (22.5 million person-years). Fixed effects regression was used to estimate within-individual income loss by disease, and cause-deletion methods to estimate economic productivity loss at the population level. Income loss in the year of diagnosis was highest for dementia for both men (US$8,882; 95% CI $6,709 to $11,056) and women ($7,103; $5,499 to $8,707). Mental illness also had high income losses in the year of diagnosis (average of about $5,300 per year for males and $4,100 per year for females, for 4 subcategories of: depression and anxiety; alcohol related; schizophrenia; and other). Similar patterns were evident for prevalent years of diagnosis. For the last year of life, cancers tended to have the highest income losses, (e.g., colorectal cancer males: $17,786, 95% CI $15,555 to $20,018; females: $14,192, $12,357 to $16,026). The combined annual income loss from all diseases among 25- to 64-year-olds was US$2.72 billion or 4.3% of total income. Diseases contributing more than 4% of total disease-related income loss were mental illness (30.0%), cardiovascular disease (15.6%), musculoskeletal (13.7%), endocrine (8.9%), gastrointestinal (7.4%), neurological (6.5%), and cancer (4.5%). The limitations of this study include residual biases that may overestimate the effect of disease on income loss, such as unmeasured time-varying confounding (e.g., divorce leading to both depression and income loss) and reverse causation (e.g., income loss leading to depression). Conversely, there may also be offsetting underestimation biases, such as income loss in the prodromal phase before diagnosis that is misclassified to "healthy" person time.

CONCLUSIONS

In this longitudinal study, we found that income loss varies considerably by disease. Nevertheless, mental illness, cardiovascular, and musculoskeletal diseases stand out as likely major causes of economic productivity loss, suggesting that they should be prioritised in prevention programmes.

Financial burdens of HIV and chronic disease on people living with HIV in Côte d'Ivoire: A cross-sectional out-of-pocket expenditure study

BACKGROUND

Although people living with HIV in Côte d'Ivoire receive antiretroviral therapy (ART) at no cost, other out-of-pocket (OOP) spending related to health can still create a barrier to care.

METHODS

A convenience sample of 400 adults living with HIV for at least 1 year in Côte d'Ivoire completed a survey on their health spending for HIV and chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs). In addition to descriptive statistics, we performed simple linear regression analyses with bootstrapped 95% confidence intervals.

FINDINGS

365 participants (91%) reported OOP spending for HIV care, with a median of $16/year (IQR 5-48). 34% of participants reported direct costs with a median of $2/year (IQR 1-41). No participants reported user fees for HIV services. 87% of participants reported indirect costs, with a median of $17/year (IQR 7-41). 102 participants (26%) reported at least 1 NCD. Of these, 80 (78%) reported OOP spending for NCD care, with a median of $50/year (IQR 6-107). 76 participants (95%) with both HIV and NCDs reported direct costs, and 48% reported paying user fees for NCD services. Participants had missed a median of 2 HIV appointments in the past year (IQR 2-3). Higher OOP costs were not associated with the number of HIV appointments missed. 21% of participants reported spending over 10% of household income on HIV and/or NCD care.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

Despite the availability of free ART, most participants reported OOP spending. OOP costs were much higher for participants with co-morbid NCDs.

Medical costs and out-of-pocket expenditures associated with multimorbidity in China: quantile regression analysis

Objective

Multimorbidity is a growing challenge in low-income and middle-income countries. This study investigates the effects of multimorbidity on annual medical costs and the out-of-pocket expenditures (OOPEs) along the cost distribution.

Methods

Data from the nationally representative China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS 2015), including 10 592 participants aged ≥45 years and 15 physical and mental chronic diseases, were used for this nationally representative cross-sectional study. Quantile multivariable regressions were employed to understand variations in the association of chronic disease multimorbidity with medical cost and OOPE.

Results

Overall, 69.5% of middle-aged and elderly Chinese had multimorbidity in 2015. Increased number of chronic diseases was significantly associated with greater health expenditures across every cost quantile groups. The effect of chronic diseases on total medical cost was found to be larger among the upper tail than those in the lower tail of the cost distributions (coefficients 12, 95% CI 6 to 17 for 10th percentile; coefficients 296, 95% CI 71 to 522 for 90th percentile). Annual OOPE also increased with chronic diseases from the 10th percentile to the 90th percentile. Multimorbidity had larger effects on OOPE and was more pronounced at the upper tail of the health expenditure distribution (regression coefficients of 8 and 84 at the 10th percentile and 75th percentile, respectively).

Conclusion

Multimorbidity is associated with escalating healthcare costs in China. Further research is required to understand the impact of multimorbidity across different population groups.

Potential impact of COVID-19 related unemployment on increased cardiovascular disease in a high-income country: Modeling health loss, cost and equity

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of health loss and health sector economic burdens in high-income countries. Unemployment is associated with increased risk of CVD, and so there is concern that the economic downturn associated with the COVID-19 pandemic will increase the CVD burden.

AIMS

This modeling study aimed to quantify potential health loss, health cost burden and health inequities among people with CVD due to additional unemployment caused by COVID-19 pandemic-related economic disruption in one high-income country: New Zealand (NZ).

METHODS

We adapted an established and validated multi-state life-table model for CVD in the national NZ population. We modeled indirect effects (ie, higher CVD incidence due to high unemployment rates) for various scenarios of pandemic-related unemployment projections from the NZ Treasury.

RESULTS

We estimated the potential CVD-related heath loss in NZ to range from 23,300 to 36,900 health-adjusted life years (HALYs) for the different unemployment scenarios. Health inequities would be increased with the per capita health loss for Māori (Indigenous population) estimated to be 3.7 times greater than for non-Māori (49.9 vs 13.5 HALYs lost per 1000 people). The estimated additional health system costs ranged between (NZ$303 million [m] to 503m in 2019 values; or US$209m to 346m).

CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

Unemployment due to the COVID-19 pandemic could cause significant health loss, increase health inequities from CVD, and impose additional health system costs in this high-income country. Prevention measures should be considered by governments to reduce this risk, including additional job creation programs and measures directed towards the primary prevention of CVD.

Hitting the Target but Missing the Point? Modelling Health and Economic Impacts of Different Approaches to Meeting the Global Action Plan for Physical Activity Target

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization launched the Global Action Plan for Physical Activity (GAPPA) in 2018, which set a global target of a 15% relative reduction in the prevalence of physical inactivity by 2030. This target, however, could be acheived in various ways.

METHODS

We use an established multi-state life table model to estimate the health and economic gains that would accrue over the lifetime of the 2011 New Zealand population if the GAPPA target was met under two different approaches: (1) an equal shift approach where physical activity increases by the same absolute amount for everyone; (2) a proportional shift approach where physical activity increases proportionally to current activity levels.

FINDINGS

An equal shift approach to meeting the GAPPA target would result in 197,000 health-adjusted life-years (HALYs) gained (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 152,000-246,000) and healthcare system cost savings of US$1.57b (95%UI $1.16b-$2.03b; 0% discount rate). A proportional shift to the GAPPA target would result in 158,000 HALYs (95%UI 127,000-194,000) and US$1.29billion (95%UI $0.99b-$1.64b) savings to the healthcare system.

INTERPRETATION

Achieving the GAPPA target would result in large health gains and savings to the healthcare system. However, not all population approaches to increasing physical activity are equal-some population shifts bring greater health benefits. Our results demonstrate the need to consider the entire population physical activity distribution in addition to evaluating progress towards a target.

Family-based Interventions Benefit Individuals With Musculoskeletal Pain in the Short-term but not in the Long-Term: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

INTRODUCTION

The benefits of family-based interventions for patients with musculoskeletal pain have been previously shown in individual randomized controlled trials (RCTs), but no systematic review has summarized their effects.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A systematic review was conducted to assess the effectiveness of family-based interventions on clinical and biopsychosocial outcomes in people with musculoskeletal pain (PROSPERO CRD42018118442). Meta-analyses were performed for the outcomes of pain intensity, disability, mood, self-efficacy, and marital adjustment.

RESULTS

Of 1223 records identified, 18 reports representing 15 RCTs were included in the qualitative review and 10 in the meta-analyses. Family-based interventions were more effective to reduce pain (mean difference [MD], -3.55/100; 95% confidence intreval [CI], -4.03 to -3.06) and disability (MD, -1.51/100; 95% CI, -1.98 to -1.05) than individual-focused interventions at short-term, but not at mid term or long term. There were no effects on other outcomes. Family-based interventions were more effective to reduce pain (MD, -6.05/100; 95% CI, -6.78 to -5.33) compared with usual care only at short-term. No effects were found on disability and other outcomes.

DISCUSSION

There is moderate-quality evidence that family-based interventions result in small, significantly better pain and disability outcomes in the short-term compared with individual-focused interventions in patients with musculoskeletal pain. Based on low-quality evidence, family-based interventions result in small improvements on pain in the short-term compared with usual care. Future studies should review the content and optimize the mechanisms underpinning family-based interventions in musculoskeletal pain so that the approach could be further tested in adequately powered RCTs.

Creating a priority list of non-communicable diseases to support health research funding decision-making

OBJECTIVE

To develop and pilot a framework based on multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to prioritize non-communicable diseases (NCDs) to support health research funding decision-making.

METHODS

The framework involves identifying NCDs to be prioritized, specifying prioritization criteria and determining their weights from a survey of stakeholders. The mean weights from the survey are applied to the NCDs' ratings on the criteria to generate a 'total score' for each NCD, by which the NCDs are prioritized.

RESULTS

Nineteen NCDs and five criteria were included. The criteria, in decreasing order of importance (mean weights in parentheses), are: deaths across the population (27.7 %), loss of quality-of-life across the population (23.0 %), cost to patients and families (18.6 %), cost to the health system (17.2 %), and whether vulnerable groups are disproportionately affected (13.4 %). The priority list of NCDs, stratified into four tiers of importance, is: 'Very critical' priority: coronary heart disease, back and neck pain, diabetes mellitus; 'Critical' priority: dementia and Alzheimer's disease, stroke; 'High' priority: colon and rectum cancer, depressive disorders, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic kidney disease, breast cancer, prostate cancer, arthritis, lung cancer; and 'Medium' priority: asthma, hearing loss, melanoma skin cancer, addictive disorders, non-melanoma skin cancer, headaches.

CONCLUSION

The results indicate the framework for prioritizing NCDs for research funding is feasible and effective. The framework could also be used for other health conditions.

Access to transplantation for persons with intellectual disability: Strategies for nondiscrimination

Disqualifying patients with intellectual disabilities (ID) from transplantation has received growing attention from the media, state legislatures, the Office of Civil Rights, and recently the National Council on Disability, as well as internationally. Compared with evidence-based criteria used to determine transplant eligibility, the ID criterion remains controversial because of its potential to be discriminatory, subjective, and because its relationship to outcomes is uncertain. Use of ID in determining transplant candidacy may stem partly from perceived worse adherence and outcomes for patients with ID, fear of penalties to transplant centers for poor outcomes, and stigma surrounding the quality of life for people with ID. However, using ID as a contraindication to solid organ transplantation is not evidence-based and reduces equitable access to transplantation, disadvantaging an already vulnerable population. Variability and lack of transparency in referral and evaluation allows for gatekeeping, threatens patient autonomy, limits access to lifesaving treatment, and may be seen as unfair. We examine the benefits and harms of using ID as a transplant eligibility criterion, review current clinical evidence and ethical considerations, and make recommendations for transplant teams and regulatory agencies to ensure fair access to transplant for individuals with ID.

Social environment and quality of life among older people with diabetes and multiple chronic illnesses in New Zealand: Intermediary effects of psychosocial support and constraints

Purpose: In older people with diabetes, multimorbidity is highly prevalent and it can lead to poor quality of life. The overall purpose of this study was to examine the association between the social environment, psychosocial support and constraints, and overall quality of life among older people with and without with diabetes and multiple chronic illnesses.Methods: Self-reported data from participants in a cohort study of older New Zealanders was analysed. Responses from 380 older people diagnosed with diabetes and multiple chronic illnesses were compared with 527 older people with no health issues on indicators related to the associations of neighbourhood, health and ageing, using structural equation modelling.Results: The final model suggests that social provision, purpose in life and capabilities mediated between the social environment and quality of life, indicate that older people with positive social environment (i.e., neighbourhood advantage, residential stability) are much less likely to experience depression due to having good social support, meaningful life purpose and opportunities to engage.Conclusions: Perceived neighbourhood advantages, such as positive neighbourhood qualities, social cohesion and housing satisfaction, along with the focus on increasing social support, enhancing purpose in life and supporting one's capability to achieve, may serve as protective factors against depression.IMPLICATIONS FOR REHABILITATIONEnvironmental and personal circumstances can contribute to quality of life among older people with diabetes and multimorbidity.By providing older people with diabetes and multiple chronic illnesses a socially just environment that challenges ageism and other forms of oppression, this could reduce social disparities in health, improve inclusion and access to resources.Social and healthcare professionals are encouraged to design clinical care guidelines and rehabilitation goals from a wholistic and person/client centred approach to support older people with diabetes and multiple chronic illnesses.

If You Don't Eat Meat… You'll Die. A Mixed-Method Survey of Health-Professionals' Beliefs

Despite an ever-increasing burden of non-communicable diseases and overwhelming evidence that good nutrition improves outcomes it is difficult to know whether this evidence is reaching the general population. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether health professionals in Tairāwhiti have sufficient nutrition education for their roles in health education and promotion and whether nutrition beliefs held by health professionals were consistent with current literature. A particular interest was to enlist views on the harms, benefits, and possible barriers to following plant-based diets. A mixed-methods study involving health professionals completing a questionnaire and a subsequent focus group to collect data was used. Survey data were analysed using spreadsheet software, and thematic content analysis of focus group data was undertaken. Participants provided nutrition advice 2.4 times per day. Almost half of practitioners considered their nutrition knowledge to be inadequate, and most made poor use of references for provision of information. Plant-based diets were generally viewed as beneficial to health, improve quality of life, be filling, but were perceived as not as easy to follow. This study is in keeping with previous research that the health workforce would benefit from more formalised nutrition education and competencies to address common chronic disease.

Implications of multimorbidity patterns on health care utilisation and quality of life in middle-income countries: cross-sectional analysis

Background

Past studies have demonstrated how single non-communicable diseases (NCDs) affect health care utilisation and quality of life (QoL), but not how different NCD combinations interact to affect these. Our study aims to investigate the prevalence of NCD dyad and triad combinations, and the implications of different NCD dyad combinations on health care utilisation and QoL.

Methods

Our study utilised cross-sectional data from the WHO SAGE study to examine the most prevalent NCD combinations in six large middle-income countries (MICs). Subjects were mostly aged 50 years and above, with a smaller proportion aged 18 to 49 years. Multivariable linear regression was applied to investigate which NCD dyads increased or decreased health care utilisation and QoL, compared with subjects with only one NCD.

Results

The study included 41 557 subjects. Most prevalent NCD combinations differed by subgroups, including age, gender, income, and residence (urban vs rural). Diabetes, stroke, and depression had the largest effect on increasing mean number of outpatient visits, increasing mean number of hospitalisation days, and decreasing mean QoL scores, respectively. Out of the 36 NCD dyads in our study, thirteen, four, and five dyad combinations were associated with higher or lower mean number of outpatient visits, mean number of hospitalisations, or mean QoL scores, respectively, compared with treating separate patients with one NCD each. Dyads of depression were associated with fewer mean outpatient visits, more hospitalisations, and lower mean QoL scores, compared to patients with one NCD. Dyads of hypertension and diabetes were also associated with a reduced mean number of outpatient visits.

Conclusions

Certain NCD combinations increase or decrease health care utilisation and QoL substantially more than treating separate patients with one NCD each. Health systems should consider the needs of patients with different multimorbidity patterns to effectively respond to the demands on health care utilisation and to mitigate adverse effects on QoL.

Cost of hospital care for the older adults according to their level of frailty. A cohort study in the Lazio region, Italy

Background

The increasing burden of chronic diseases associated with the ageing of the European population constitutes one of the main challenges for the welfare systems in developed western countries, especially through its impact on the use of hospital services and the cost of care. This study aims at evaluating the cost of hospital care for older adults living in the Lazio Region, Italy, according to their level of frailty.

Methods

Since 2014 a longitudinal randomized cohort study has been carried out on a sample consisting of 1280 older adults aged over 64 years resident in the Lazio region (Italy), with their being evaluated for multidimensional frailty. Accesses to Hospital Services (acute care and Day Hospital care admissions and Emergency Room accesses) during the first year after enrolment, as well as the related costs have been recorded through a regional database. Costs have been stratified on the basis of the state of frailty.

Results

The analysis of hospital services and costs highlights the role played by pre-frail individuals who generated 49.3% of the hospital care cumulative costs. Hospital Admission (HA) costs arising from robust and pre-frail subjects are 70% of the total HA costs. Pre-frail individuals also showed the highest average HA cost per person/year (7062.89 Euros). The main determinant of the highest HA costs was given by the number of HAs during the follow-up (multivariate linear regression, ß coefficient = 0.319; p<0.001), which was higher among pre-frail individuals than in any other group of patients.

Conclusions

Pre-frail individuals generated the highest cost for hospital care in a sample of representative subjects living in an Italian Region with a low rate of community care services, as is the case in the Lazio region. Assessment of the multidimensional frailty of older adults permits a better definition of the important target of the pre-frail population as the main category within which interventions to prevent or mitigate frailty should be carried out.