Evaluating strategies for control of tuberculosis in prisons and prevention of spillover into communities: An observational and modeling study from Brazil

Mass incarceration as a driver of the tuberculosis epidemic in Latin America and projected impacts of policy alternatives: A mathematical modeling study

Background

Tuberculosis incidence is increasing in Latin America, where the incarcerated population has nearly quadrupled since 1990. The full impact of incarceration on the tuberculosis epidemic, accounting for effects beyond prisons, has never been quantified.

Methods

We calibrated dynamic compartmental transmission models to historical and contemporary data from Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, El Salvador, Mexico, and Peru, which comprise approximately 80% of the region's incarcerated population and tuberculosis burden. Using historical counterfactual scenarios, we estimated the transmission population attributable fraction (tPAF) for incarceration and the excess population-level burden attributable to increasing incarceration prevalence since 1990. We additionally projected the impact of alternative incarceration policies on future population tuberculosis incidence.

Findings

Population tuberculosis incidence in 2019 was 29.4% (95% UI, 23.9-36.8) higher than expected without the rise in incarceration since 1990, corresponding to 34,393 (95% UI, 28,295-42,579) excess incident cases across countries. The incarceration tPAF in 2019 was 27.2% (95% UI, 20.9-35.8), exceeding estimates for other risk factors like HIV, alcohol use disorder, and undernutrition. Compared to a scenario where incarceration rates remain stable at current levels, a gradual 50% reduction in prison admissions and duration of incarceration by 2034 would reduce population tuberculosis incidence by over 10% in all countries except Mexico.

Interpretation

The historical rise in incarceration in Latin America has resulted in a large excess tuberculosis burden that has been under-recognized to-date. International health agencies, ministries of justice, and national tuberculosis programs should collaborate to address this health crisis with comprehensive strategies, including decarceration.

Funding

National Institutes of Health.

Assessment of tuberculosis transmission probability in three Thai prisons based on five dynamic models

This study aimed to assess and compare the probability of tuberculosis (TB) transmission based on five dynamic models: the Wells-Riley equation, two Rudnick & Milton-proposed models based on air changes per hour (ACH) and liters per second per person (L/s/p), the model proposed by Issarow et al, and the Applied Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) TB transmission model. This study also aimed to determine the impact of model parameters on such probabilities in three Thai prisons. A cross-sectional study was conducted using data from 985 prison cells. The TB transmission probability for each cell was calculated using parameters relevant to the specific model formula, and the magnitude of the model agreement was examined by Spearman's rank correlation and Bland-Altman plot. Subsequently, a multiple linear regression analysis was conducted to investigate the influence of each model parameter on the estimated probability. Results revealed that the median (Quartiles 1 and 3) of TB transmission probability among these cells was 0.052 (0.017, 0.180). Compared with the pioneered Wells-Riley's model, the remaining models projected discrepant TB transmission probability from less to more commensurate to the degree of model modification from the pioneered model as follows: Rudnick & Milton (ACH), Issarow et al., and Rudnick & Milton (L/s/p), and the applied SEIR models. The ventilation rate and number of infectious TB patients in each cell or zone had the greatest impact on the estimated TB transmission probability in most models. Additionally, the number of inmates in each cell, the area per person in square meters, and the inmate turnover rate were identified as high-impact parameters in the applied SEIR model. All stakeholders must urgently address these influential parameters to reduce TB transmission in prisons. Moreover, further studies are required to determine their relative validity in accurately predicting TB incidence in prison settings.

Excess tuberculosis risk during and following incarceration in Paraguay: a retrospective cohort study

Background

The increased risk of tuberculosis (TB) among people deprived of liberty (PDL) is due to individual and institution-level factors. We followed a cohort of PDL from 5 prisons in Paraguay to describe the risk of TB during incarceration and after they were released.

Methods

We linked a 2013 national census of prisons with TB records from the TB Program from 2010 to 2021 to identify TB notifications among incarcerated and formerly incarcerated individuals. We used multivariable Cox regression models to quantify the risk of TB during and following incarceration and to identify risk factors associated with TB.

Findings

Among 2996 individuals incarcerated, 451 (15.1%) were diagnosed with TB. Of these, 262 (58.1%) cases occurred during incarceration and 189 (41.9%) occurred in the community after release. In prison, the hazard ratio of developing TB was 1.97 (95% CI: 1.52-2.61) after six months of incarceration and increased to 2.78 (95% CI: 1.82-4.24) after 36 months compared with the first six months. The overall TB notification rate was 2940 per 100,000 person-years. This rate increased with the duration of incarceration from 1335 per 100,000 person-years in the first year to 8455 per 100,000 person-years after 8 years. Among former prisoners, the rate of TB decreased from 1717 in the first year after release to 593 per 100 000 person-years after 8 years of follow up.

Interpretation

Our study shows the alarming risk of TB associated with prison environments in Paraguay, and how this risk persists for years following incarceration. Effective TB control measures to protect the health of people during and following incarceration are urgently needed.

Funding

Paraguay National Commission of Science and Technology grant CONACYT PIN 15-705 (GS, GES, SA).

Spatially-targeted tuberculosis screening has limited impact beyond household contact tracing in Lima, Peru: A model-based analysis

Mathematical models have suggested that spatially-targeted screening interventions for tuberculosis may efficiently accelerate disease control, but empirical data supporting these findings are limited. Previous models demonstrating substantial impacts of these interventions have typically simulated large-scale screening efforts and have not attempted to capture the spatial distribution of tuberculosis in households and communities at a high resolution. Here, we calibrate an individual-based model to the locations of case notifications in one district of Lima, Peru. We estimate the incremental efficiency and impact of a spatially-targeted interventions used in combination with household contact tracing (HHCT). Our analysis reveals that HHCT is relatively efficient with a median of 40 (Interquartile Range: 31.7 to 49.9) household contacts required to be screened to detect a single case of active tuberculosis. However, HHCT has limited population impact, producing a median incidence reduction of only 3.7% (Interquartile Range: 5.8% to 1.9%) over 5 years. In comparison, spatially targeted screening (which we modeled as active case finding within high tuberculosis prevalence areas 100 m2 grid cell) is far less efficient, requiring evaluation of ≈12 times the number of individuals as HHCT to find a single individual with active tuberculosis. Furthermore, the addition of the spatially targeted screening effort produced only modest additional reductions in tuberculosis incidence over the 5 year period (≈1.3%) in tuberculosis incidence. In summary, we found that HHCT is an efficient approach for tuberculosis case finding, but has limited population impact. Other screening approaches which target areas of high tuberculosis prevalence are less efficient, and may have limited impact unless very large numbers of individuals can be screened.

Latent Tuberculosis Infection Diagnosis Using QuantiFERON-TB Gold Plus Kit Among Correctional Workers: A Cross-Sectional Study in Francisco Beltrão-PR, Brazil

Correctional workers form a high-priority group for tuberculosis control measures because of their high exposure and risk. This cross-sectional study conducted in April and May 2022 included 71 criminal police officers from the State Penitentiary of Francisco Beltrão-PR, Brazil. Their sociodemographic and laboratory data were collected. Latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) was assessed using a QuantiFERON-TB Gold Plus in-tube test kit. Binary logistic regression was applied to calculate the odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of the LTBI predictors. The prevalence of LTBI was 22.6% (95% CI, 12.8-32.2%). Factors associated with LTBI were age > 43 years (OR, 0.18; 95% CI, 0.04-0.70; p < 0.014) and the use of medications (OR, 5.13; 95% CI, 1.40-18.87; p < 0.014). The prevalence was close to that estimated worldwide for LTBI in correctional workers, reinforcing the need for occupational health control measures consisting of regular screening and treatment of positive cases of latent infection among correctional workers to reduce the risk of illness and spread of infection in the penitentiary system and community.

Delay in the diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis in prisons in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil

BACKGROUND

The number of tuberculosis (TB) cases in prisons is higher than that in the general population and has been reported as the most common cause of death in prisons. This study evaluated the delay in the diagnosis and treatment of TB in Brazilian prisons.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted between 2007 and 2015 using data from the five largest male prisons in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. TB case data was collected from the National Database of Notifiable Diseases (SINAN), GAL-LACEN, and prison medical records. The following variables were recorded: prison, year of diagnosis, age, race, education, HIV status, smoking status, comorbidities, number of symptoms, percentage of cures, delay in diagnosis, patient delay, provider delay, laboratory delay, and delay in treatment. Descriptive statistics were used for the variables of interest.

RESULTS

A total of 362 pulmonary TB cases were identified. The average time between the first symptom and reporting of data was 94 days. The mean time between symptom onset and laboratory diagnosis was 91 days. The average time from symptom onset to first consultation was 80 days. The time between diagnosis and treatment initiation was 5 days.

CONCLUSIONS

Delays were significant between reporting of the first symptoms and diagnosis and significantly smaller from the time between notification and start of treatment. Control strategies should be implemented to diagnose cases through active screening, to avoid delays in diagnosis and treatment, and to reduce TB transmission.

Spread of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Southern Brazilian persons deprived of liberty: a molecular epidemiology study

To evaluate the genetic diversity and clustering rates of M. tuberculosis strains to better understand transmission among persons deprived of liberty (PDL) in Rio Grande do Sul (RS), southern Brazil. This is a cross-sectional study, including strains of M. tuberculosis isolated from PDL, stored at the Central Laboratory of RS, in the period from 2013 to 2018. The molecular characterization was performed using the MIRU-VNTR 15 loci method. A total of 598 M. tuberculosis strains were genotyped, and 37.5% were grouped into 53 clusters. Cluster sizes ranged from 2 to 34 strains. The largest cluster of the study had strains from 34 PDL, and 58.8% of the PDL of this cluster were in P01. Among the clusters formed, in 60.3%, there was at least one strain from P01. The most common strains in RS were LAM (53.2%) and Haarlem (31.1%). The LAM strain was the most likely to form clusters, and Haarlem was associated with anti-TB drug resistance. This was translational research, and the results can collaborate with the TB control programs, leading to improved strategies that allow the reduction of the TB burden in prisons.

Treatment of latent tuberculosis infection in incarcerated people: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

The estimated number of people deprived of liberty is increasing, with 11.55 million incarcerated globally in 2021. Transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) strains is facilitated in over-crowded, poorly ventilated settings such as jails and penitentiaries. Moreover, inmates may show individual risk factors for the development of tuberculosis (TB) disease. Treatment regimens for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) may require up to 9 months of drug exposure and are characterized by adverse events (AEs) and low completion rates.

OBJECTIVES

to describe current scientific evidence on feasibility, acceptability and completion rate of LTBI treatment in prison/correctional institutes.

DATA SOURCES

Articles were retrieved from MEDLINE/PubMed, no time restriction was applied.

STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Human retrospective and prospective studies published on LTBI treatment in incarcerated populations were included.

ASSESSMENT OF RISK OF BIAS

Bias assessment plots and Egger weighted regression test were used to determine the risk of bias.

METHODS OF DATA SYNTHESIS

Absolute and relative frequencies were assessed for qualitative data. Pooled proportion of included study groups and 95% confidence interval estimates, weighted for sample sizes, were illustrated in forest plots. I² indicator association were used for true variability and overall variation. Fixed and random-effects models were chosen depending on the estimated between-study heterogeneity.

RESULTS

Of11 selected studies only 1 was conducted in a high TB incidence country. Overall, completion rates ranged from 26% to 100% across the included studies. Reason for discontinuation of treatment were transfer to other facilities, release, or loss to follow-up (LTFU) (range 0-74%), incidence of AEs (range 0-18%), and refusal or withdrawal from treatment (range 0-16%).

CONCLUSIONS

Implementation of short-course regimens in prisons should be considered given the low incidence of AEs observed; however, inmates consistently refused to complete LTBI treatment, thus underlining the need for improvement in retention in care.

Risk for Prison-to-Community Tuberculosis Transmission, Thailand, 2017-2020

To determine contributions of previously incarcerated persons to tuberculosis (TB) transmission in the community, we performed a healthcare facility-based cohort study of TB patients in Thailand during 2017-2020. We used whole-genome sequencing of Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates from patients to identify genotypic clusters and assess the association between previous incarceration and TB transmission in the community. We identified 4 large genotype clusters (>10 TB patients/cluster); 28% (14/50) of the patients in those clusters were formerly incarcerated. Formerly incarcerated TB patients were more likely than nonincarcerated patients to be included in large clusters. TB patients within the large genotype clusters were geographically dispersed throughout Chiang Rai Province. Community TB transmission in the community was associated with the presence of formerly incarcerated individuals in Thailand. To reduce the risk for prison-to-community transmission, we recommend TB screening at the time of entry and exit from prisons and follow-up screening in the community.

New insights on tuberculosis transmission dynamics and drug susceptibility profiles among the prison population in Southern Brazil based on whole-genome sequencing

BACKGROUND

The rate of tuberculosis (TB) infection among the prison population (PP) in Brazil is 28 times higher than that in the general population, and prison environment favors the spread of TB.

OBJECTIVE

To describe TB transmission dynamics and drug resistance profiles in PP using whole-genome sequencing (WGS).

METHODS

This was a retrospective study of Mycobacterium tuberculosis cultivated from people incarcerated in 55 prisons between 2016 and 2019; only one isolate per prisoner was included. Information about movement from one prison to another was tracked. Clinical information was collected, and WGS was performed on isolates obtained at the time of TB diagnosis.

RESULTS

Among 134 prisoners included in the study, we detected 16 clusters with a total of 58 (43%) cases of M. tuberculosis. Clusters ranged from two to seven isolates with five or fewer single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) differences, suggesting a recent transmission. Six (4.4%) isolates were resistant to at least one anti-TB drug. Two of these clustered together and showed resistance to rifampicin, isoniazid, and fluoroquinolones, with 100% concordance between WGS and phenotypic drug-susceptibility testing. Prisoners with clustered isolates had a high amount of movement between prisons (two to eight moves) during the study period.

CONCLUSIONS

WGS demonstrated the recent transmission of TB within prisons in Brazil. The high movement among prisoners seems to be related to the transmission of the same M. tuberculosis strain within the prison system. Screening for TB before and after the movement of prisoners using rapid molecular tests could play a role in reducing transmission.

Epidemiology of TB in prisoners: a metanalysis of the prevalence of active and latent TB

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) in prisons usually occurs at higher rates than in the general population, especially in developing countries. TB has been reported as the most common cause of death among prisoners. Studies have shown limitations for early detection of TB in prisons that seem to result from mistaken concepts about TB, delayed diagnosis mainly due to the naturalization of lack of healthcare for this population METHODS: A scoping review was performed using the methodology of the Joanna Briggs Institute to assess "What are the scientific evidences on the epidemiology of TB in the prison system?". Then, a meta-analysis was performed to assess the prevalence of TB (active and latent) TB in prisoners. The results are presented as prevalence, in percentage, through random effects models, with a confidence interval of 95%.

RESULTS

Regarding active TB, the results of the metanalysis showed that countries with a high burden of TB had a prevalence of 3.54% [2.71; 4.63], countries not considered to be high burden TB countries had a prevalence of 1.43% [0.86; 2.37]. Latent TB had a prevalence of 51.61% [39.46; 63.58] in high TB burden countries and a prevalence of 40.24% [23.51; 59.61] in countries with low TB burden. In terms of development, in low- and lower-middle-income countries, the prevalence of active TB was 3.13% [1.84; 5.29] and in high- and upper-middle income countries the prevalence was 2.25% [1.70; 2.99]. The prevalence of latent TB in high- and middle-income countries was 43.77% [28.61; 60.18] and of 49.42% [45.91; 52.94] in low and lower middle-income countries.

CONCLUSION

Our analysis suggests that TB, and probably other infectious diseases, find fertile ground in prisons where previous acquire social disadvantages seem to thrive-therefore, TB in prisons is a global public health problem and effective strategies are needed to control the disease are needed targeting the prison environment, including rapid health assessments to understand each context and to implement tailored and precision interventions.

The socio-demographic, clinical characteristics and outcomes of tuberculosis among HIV infected adults in Lithuania: A thirteen-year analysis

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) is a public health problem in Lithuania, among the 18 high-priority TB countries in the European region, and the most common AIDS-indicative disease with the highest proportion in the EU/EEA since 2015. The study aimed to identify socio-demographic, clinical characteristics and their relationship with TB outcomes in TB-HIV co-infected patients in Lithuania.

METHODS

A retrospective chart review analysed the characteristics of TB-HIV co-infected adults registered in State Information System of Tuberculosis over 2008-2020. The factors associated with drug-resistant TB and unsuccessful treatment outcome were identified by multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

The study included 345 cases in 311 patients (239 new, 106 previously treated cases), median age 40 years (IQR 35-45), 80.7% male. 67.8% patients knew their HIV-positive status before TB diagnosis, median time to TB diagnosis was 8 years (IQR 4-12). 83.6% were unemployed, 50.5%-anytime intravenous drug users (IDU), 34.9% abused alcohol. Drug-resistant TB rates in new and previously treated TB cases were 38.1% and 61.3%, respectively. In multivariable analysis, higher risk of drug-resistant TB was associated with imprisonment in new (aOR 3.35; 95%CI 1.17-9.57) and previously treated (aOR 6.63; 95%CI 1.09-40.35) cases. In 52.3% of new TB cases and in 42.5% previously treated TB cases the treatment outcomes were unsuccessful. In multivariable analysis of new TB cases, current imprisonment (aOR 2.77; 95%CI 1.29-5.91) and drug-resistant TB (aOR 2.18; 95%CI 1.11-4.28) were associated with unsuccessful treatment outcome. In multivariable analysis of previously treated TB cases, female gender (aOR 11.93; 95%CI 1.86-76.69), alcohol abuse (aOR 3.17; 95%CI 1.05-9.58), drug-resistant TB (aOR 4.83; 95%CI 1.53-15.28) were associated with unsuccessful treatment outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

In the TB-HIV-infected adult cohort in Lithuania, unemployment, imprisonment, IDU, alcohol abuse, known to be risk factors for TB, were very frequent. Drug resistance was an undeniable risk factor for unsuccessful treatment outcome and imprisonment was associated with drug resistant TB.

Dynamics of Respiratory Infectious Diseases in Incarcerated and Free-Living Populations: A Simulation Modeling Study

BACKGROUND

Historically, correctional facilities have had large outbreaks of respiratory infectious diseases like COVID-19. Hence, importation and exportation of such diseases from correctional facilities raises substantial concern.

METHODS

We developed a stochastic simulation model of transmission of respiratory infectious diseases within and between correctional facilities and the community. We investigated the infection dynamics, key governing factors, and relative importance of different infection routes (e.g., incarcerations and releases versus correctional staff). We also developed machine-learning meta-models of the simulation model, which allowed us to examine how our findings depended on different disease, correctional facility, and community characteristics.

RESULTS

We find a magnification-reflection dynamic: a small outbreak in the community can cause a larger outbreak in the correction facility, which can then cause a second, larger outbreak in the community. This dynamic is strongest when community size is relatively small as compared with the size of the correctional population, the initial community R-effective is near 1, and initial prevalence of immunity in the correctional population is low. The timing of the correctional magnification and community reflection peaks in infection prevalence are primarily governed by the initial R-effective for each setting. Because the release rates from prisons are low, our model suggests correctional staff may be a more important infection entry route into prisons than incarcerations and releases; in jails, where incarceration and release rates are much higher, our model suggests the opposite.

CONCLUSIONS

We find that across many combinations of respiratory pathogens, correctional settings, and communities, there can be substantial magnification-reflection dynamics, which are governed by several key factors. Our goal was to derive theoretical insights relevant to many contexts; our findings should be interpreted accordingly.

HIGHLIGHTS

We find a magnification-reflection dynamic: a small outbreak in a community can cause a larger outbreak in a correctional facility, which can then cause a second, larger outbreak in the community.For public health decision makers considering contexts most susceptible to this dynamic, we find that the dynamic is strongest when the community size is relatively small, initial community R-effective is near 1, and the initial prevalence of immunity in the correctional population is low; the timing of the correctional magnification and community reflection peaks in infection prevalence are primarily governed by the initial R-effective for each setting.We find that correctional staff may be a more important infection entry route into prisons than incarcerations and releases; however, for jails, the relative importance of the entry routes may be reversed.For modelers, we combine simulation modeling, machine-learning meta-modeling, and interpretable machine learning to examine how our findings depend on different disease, correctional facility, and community characteristics; we find they are generally robust.

Completude dos dados do sistema de informações de tuberculose de pessoas privadas de liberdade do Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil

Resumo A tuberculose (TB) apresenta incidências elevadas em todo o mundo, sendo ainda mais grave em pessoas privadas de liberdade (PPL). Foi avaliada a completude das notificações de TB de PPL no SINAN realizadas por equipes de atenção primária prisional (eAPP) ou por outros estabelecimentos de saúde do RS. Estudo descritivo, transversal, utilizando dados de notificações de PPL feitas no SINAN TB pelas eAPP ou por outros estabelecimentos de saúde, de janeiro de 2014 a novembro de 2018. Foi analisado o percentual de completude das variáveis: sexo, raça/cor, escolaridade, HIV, tipo de entrada, baciloscopia de escarro, cultura do escarro, Aids, tratamento antirretroviral durante o tratamento para a TB, tratamento diretamente observado (TDO), baciloscopia de 6º mês e situação de encerramento. Praticamente 53% dos casos de TB em PPL foram notificados por eAPP, e 47,1% foram notificados por outros estabelecimentos de saúde. Oitenta por cento das variáveis foram classificadas na categoria 4 (75,1% a 100% de completude). No entanto, as variáveis TDO e baciloscopia de 6º mês foram classificadas na categoria 3 (50,1% e 75% de completude). Embora não comprometa a notificação da TB no SINAN, a ausência de dados pode prejudicar a qualidade das informações sobre a doença.

Completeness of tuberculosis information system data from prisoners in the state Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

Abstract Tuberculosis (TB) has a high incidence in several countries and is even more severe in prisoners. We evaluated the completeness of prisoners TB notifications in the Notifiable Disease Information System (SINAN) carried out by prison primary care teams (eAPP) or by other health facilities in the state of Rio Grande do Sul (RS). This descriptive cross-sectional study used prisoners data notifications in the SINAN TB by the eAPP or other health facilities from January 2014 to November 2018. We analyzed the percentage of completeness of the variables: gender, ethnicity, schooling, HIV, entry type, sputum smear, sputum culture, AIDS, ART during TB treatment, directly observed treatment (DOT), sixth-month smear, and closure status. Around 52.9% of TB cases in prisoners were reported by eAPP, and other health facilities reported 47.1% of the cases. Eighty percent of the variables were classified in category 4 (75.1% to 100% completeness). However, the DOT and sixth-month smear variables were classified into category 3 (50.1% and 75% completeness). While it does not compromise the notification of TB in the SINAN, the lack of data can impair the quality of information about the disease.

Epidemiology and control strategies for tuberculosis in countries with the largest prison populations

Tuberculosis (TB) is a serious infectious disease, and its control is considered a challenge, especially among vulnerable populations such as prisoners. The occurrence of TB in prisons is an alarming public health problem in many countries. This integrative review aims to describe the epidemiology of TB and control strategies for this disease in countries with the largest prison populations. Studies have shown that it is essential to know the prevalence of TB in prisons of each country. This is because it can serve as an indication of the need for action in prisons to reduce TB rates, including improving the structure of prison environments, rapidly and accurately diagnosing new cases, identifying drug-resistant strains, and implementing effective and directly observed treatment for TB.

Excess tuberculosis cases and deaths following an economic recession in Brazil: an analysis of nationally representative disease registry data

BACKGROUND

In 2019, tuberculosis incidence and mortality in Brazil were 46 and 3·3 per 100 000 population, respectively, and the country has reported rising tuberculosis case rates since 2016, following an economic crisis beginning in mid-2014. We aimed to estimate the number of excess tuberculosis cases and deaths during the recession period, and assessed potential causes.

METHODS

In this multi-level regression modelling study, we extracted tuberculosis case notifications from Brazil's National Notifiable Disease Information System (known as SINAN), and tuberculosis deaths from the Mortality Information System (known as SIM), for all ages. We fitted mixed-effects regression models estimating trends in these outcomes-stratified by sex, age group, and state-during the pre-recession period (Jan 1, 2010-Dec 31, 2014). We calculated excess cases and deaths between Jan 1, 2015, and Dec 31, 2019 (the recession period) as the difference between reported values and a counterfactual of continued pre-recession trends. We examined the relationship between excess cases and possible explanatory factors using ordinary least squares regression. We tested the robustness of our findings to alternative model specifications related to the pre-recession period and criteria for defining tuberculosis deaths.

FINDINGS

We estimated 22 900 excess tuberculosis cases (95% uncertainty interval 18 100-27 500) during 2015-19. By 2019, reported cases were 12% (10-13) higher than predicted by historical trends. 54% (44-66) of excess cases occurred among 20-29-year-old men. In this group, reported cases in 2019 were 30% (25-36) higher than predicted. Excess cases were positively associated with an increasing fraction of cases among incarcerated individuals (p=0·001) and higher unemployment (p=0·04) at the state level. Estimated excess deaths for 2015-19 were not statistically significant from 0 (-600 [-2100 to 1000]). These results were robust to alternative definitions of the pre-recession period and criteria for defining tuberculosis deaths.

INTERPRETATION

Tuberculosis cases in Brazil rose substantially in 2015-19 during the recession, largely affecting young men. This increase seems to be linked to increasing tuberculosis transmission among incarcerated populations. Rising tuberculosis case rates threaten tuberculosis control in Brazil, and highlight the threat posed by prison-based tuberculosis transmission.

FUNDING

US National Institutes of Health.

TRANSLATION

For the Portuguese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Molecular Epidemiology of HIV-1 among Prisoners in Central Brazil and Evidence of Transmission Clusters

Higher rates of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection have been detected in prisoners when compared with the general population, but research into HIV molecular epidemiology and its transmission network has been lacking among them. Thus, this study aimed to verify potential HIV molecular transmission networks among prisoners. In addition, we aimed to describe the mutations related to antiretroviral resistance in these isolates. Thus, we conducted a cross-sectional survey from 2013 to 2018 in prisons in Central-Western Brazil, and the final sampling composed of 84 prisoners. Proviral DNA was extracted from each whole blood sample followed by amplification of the partial polymerase gene and sequencing. Forty-nine sequences (58.3%) were classified as subtype B, followed by C (14.3%), D, and F1 (2.4% each). A complex and dynamic HIV-1 epidemic is observed in the prisons, as 25% of the sequences were recombinant forms. We detected 15 HIV transmission clusters composed of at least two sequences, that included not only prisoners but also individuals from the general population from the same State with a variety of risk behaviors. Thirty-two percent (32.0%) of treatment-experienced prisoners had at least one drug resistance mutation (DRM), while transmitted DRMs were found in 5.9% of the prisoners. We highlight the urgent need for routine surveillance of HIV-1 infection including resistance genotypic tests considering the high disease burden, risky behaviors inside prisons, and the dynamic relationship of prisoners with the outside community.

Modeling scenarios for mitigating outbreaks in congregate settings

The explosive outbreaks of COVID-19 seen in congregate settings such as prisons and nursing homes, has highlighted a critical need for effective outbreak prevention and mitigation strategies for these settings. Here we consider how different types of control interventions impact the expected number of symptomatic infections due to outbreaks. Introduction of disease into the resident population from the community is modeled as a stochastic point process coupled to a branching process, while spread between residents is modeled via a deterministic compartmental model that accounts for depletion of susceptible individuals. Control is modeled as a proportional decrease in the number of susceptible residents, the reproduction number, and/or the proportion of symptomatic infections. This permits a range of assumptions about the density dependence of transmission and modes of protection by vaccination, depopulation and other types of control. We find that vaccination or depopulation can have a greater than linear effect on the expected number of cases. For example, assuming a reproduction number of 3.0 with density-dependent transmission, we find that preemptively reducing the size of the susceptible population by 20% reduced overall disease burden by 47%. In some circumstances, it may be possible to reduce the risk and burden of disease outbreaks by optimizing the way a group of residents are apportioned into distinct residential units. The optimal apportionment may be different depending on whether the goal is to reduce the probability of an outbreak occurring, or the expected number of cases from outbreak dynamics. In other circumstances there may be an opportunity to implement reactive disease control measures in which the number of susceptible individuals is rapidly reduced once an outbreak has been detected to occur. Reactive control is most effective when the reproduction number is not too high, and there is minimal delay in implementing control. We highlight the California state prison system as an example for how these findings provide a quantitative framework for understanding disease transmission in congregate settings. Our approach and accompanying interactive website (https://phoebelu.shinyapps.io/DepopulationModels/) provides a quantitative framework to evaluate the potential impact of policy decisions governing infection control in outbreak settings.

The burden of alcohol, tobacco and others drugs among incarcerated population diagnosed with tuberculosis: time trends and spatial determinants in Southern Brazil

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) is an infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis and is a public health problem worldwide. It is estimated that 90% of the patients diagnosed with TB live in vulnerable environments with limited health resources, such as individuals living in correctional facilities. This study aimed to identify the consumption of alcohol, tobacco, and other drugs among prisoners diagnosed with TB and the spatial determinants and time trends of the phenomenon in southern Brazil.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study using data from the Brazilian Notifiable Diseases Information System was carried out. TB cases confirmed from 2014 to 2018 in prisons located in Paraná, Brazil, were selected. The Prais-Winsten procedure was performed to identify time trends by calculating monthly rates and the percentage of monthly variation. The Seasonal-Trend by Loess decomposition method was used to verify the time series and trends. The spatial association was verified with the Getis-Ord Gi* technique, and the risk areas were identified using spatial scan statistics.

RESULTS

A total of 1,099 TB cases were found in the studied population. The consumption of tobacco (n = 460; 41.9%), illegal drugs (n = 451; 41.0%), and alcohol (n = 179; 16.3%) stood out. An ascending trend was found for the consumption of alcohol (+ 19.4%/mo. (95%CI: 12.20-23.03)), tobacco (+ 20.2%/mo. (95%CI: 12.20-28.82)), and illegal drugs (+ 62.2%/mo. (95%CI: 44.54-81.97)). Spatial analysis revealed clusters for the use of alcohol, tobacco, and illegal drugs.

CONCLUSIONS

This study advances knowledge presenting the burden of drug use and its typology among individuals diagnosed with TB in the prison system. There is a growing trend among patients to use drugs, especially illegal drugs. The clusters show differences between the places where the prisons are located.

The role of prisons in disseminating tuberculosis in Brazil: A genomic epidemiology study

Background

Globally, prisons are high-incidence settings for tuberculosis. Yet the role of prisons as reservoirs of M. tuberculosis, propagating epidemics through spillover to surrounding communities, has been difficult to measure directly.

Methods

To quantify the role of prisons in driving wider community M. tuberculosis transmission, we conducted prospective genomic surveillance in Central West Brazil from 2014 to 2019. We whole genome sequenced 1152 M. tuberculosis isolates collected during active and passive surveillance inside and outside prisons and linked genomes to detailed incarceration histories. We applied multiple phylogenetic and genomic clustering approaches and inferred timed transmission trees.

Findings

M. tuberculosis sequences from incarcerated and non-incarcerated people were closely related in a maximum likelihood phylogeny. The majority (70.8%; 46/65) of genomic clusters including people with no incarceration history also included individuals with a recent history of incarceration. Among cases in individuals with no incarceration history, 50.6% (162/320) were in clusters that included individuals with recent incarceration history, suggesting that transmission chains often span prisons and communities. We identified a minimum of 18 highly probable spillover events, M. tuberculosis transmission from people with a recent incarceration history to people with no prior history of incarceration, occurring in the state’s four largest cities and across sampling years. We additionally found that frequent transfers of people between the state’s prisons creates a highly connected prison network that likely disseminates M. tuberculosis across the state.

Interpretation

We developed a framework for measuring spillover from high-incidence environments to surrounding communities by integrating genomic and spatial information. Our findings indicate that, in this setting, prisons serve not only as disease reservoirs, but also disseminate M. tuberculosis across highly connected prison networks, both amplifying and propagating M. tuberculosis risk in surrounding communities.

Funding

Brazil’s National Council for Scientific and Technological Development and US National Institutes of Health.

COVID-19 in the California State Prison System: an Observational Study of Decarceration, Ongoing Risks, and Risk Factors

BACKGROUND

Correctional institutions nationwide are seeking to mitigate COVID-19-related risks.

OBJECTIVE

To quantify changes to California's prison population since the pandemic began and identify risk factors for COVID-19 infection.

DESIGN

For California state prisons (March 1-October 10, 2020), we described residents' demographic characteristics, health status, COVID-19 risk scores, room occupancy, and labor participation. We used Cox proportional hazard models to estimate the association between rates of COVID-19 infection and room occupancy and out-of-room labor, respectively.

PARTICIPANTS

Residents of California state prisons.

MAIN MEASURES

Changes in the incarcerated population's size, composition, housing, and activities. For the risk factor analysis, the exposure variables were room type (cells vs. dormitories) and labor participation (any room occupant participating in the prior 2 weeks) and the outcome variable was incident COVID-19 case rates.

KEY RESULTS

The incarcerated population decreased 19.1% (119,401 to 96,623) during the study period. On October 10, 2020, 11.5% of residents were aged ≥60, 18.3% had high COVID-19 risk scores, 31.0% participated in out-of-room labor, and 14.8% lived in rooms with ≥10 occupants. Nearly 40% of residents with high COVID-19 risk scores lived in dormitories. In 9 prisons with major outbreaks (6,928 rooms; 21,750 residents), dormitory residents had higher infection rates than cell residents (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 2.51 95% CI, 2.25-2.80) and residents of rooms with labor participation had higher rates than residents of other rooms (AHR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.39-1.74).

CONCLUSION

Despite reductions in room occupancy and mixing, California prisons still house many medically vulnerable residents in risky settings. Reducing risks further requires a combination of strategies, including rehousing, decarceration, and vaccination.

Cross-sectional assessment of tuberculosis and HIV prevalence in 13 correctional facilities in Zambia

OBJECTIVE

To determine the prevalence of tuberculosis (TB) and HIV in 13 Zambian correctional facilities.

METHODS

Cross-sectional study.

SETTING

13 correctional facilities in seven of the 10 provinces in Zambia.

PARTICIPANTS

All incarcerated individuals were eligible for TB and HIV screening and testing. Of the total study population of 9695 individuals, which represent 46.2% of total correctional population at the beginning of the study, 8267 and 8160 were screened for TB and HIV, respectively.

INTERVENTIONS

TB and HIV screening and testing was done between July 2018 and February 2019.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

All forms of TB, bacteriologically confirmed TB, drug-resistant TB, HIV.

RESULTS

Prevalence of all forms of TB and bacteriologically confirmed TB was 1599 (1340-1894) per 100 000 population and 1056 (847-1301) per 100 000 population, respectively. Among those with bacteriologically confirmed TB, 4.6% (1.3%-11.4%) had drug-resistant TB.There was no statistically significant difference in the prevalence of all forms of TB, bacteriologically confirmed TB and drug resistant TB between adults and juveniles: (p=0.82), (p=0.23), (p=0.68) respectively. Of the bacteriologically confirmed TB cases, 28.7% were asymptomatic. The prevalence of HIV was 14.3% (13.6%-15.1%). The prevalence of HIV among females was 1.8 times the prevalence of HIV among males (p=0.01).

CONCLUSION

Compared with the study in 2011 which screened inmates representing 30% of the country's inmate population, then the prevalence of all forms of TB and HIV in correctional facilities has reduced by about 75% and 37.6%, respectively. However, compared with the general population, the prevalence of all forms of TB and HIV was 3.5 and 1.3 times higher, respectively. TB/HIV programmes in correctional facilities need further strengthening to include aspects of juvenile-specific TB programming and gender responsive HIV programming.

All-cause and cause-specific mortality during and following incarceration in Brazil: A retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Mortality during and after incarceration is poorly understood in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The need to address this knowledge gap is especially urgent in South America, which has the fastest growing prison population in the world. In Brazil, insufficient data have precluded our understanding of all-cause and cause-specific mortality during and after incarceration.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We linked incarceration and mortality databases for the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso do Sul to obtain a retrospective cohort of 114,751 individuals with recent incarceration. Between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2018, we identified 3,127 deaths of individuals with recent incarceration (705 in detention and 2,422 following release). We analyzed age-standardized, all-cause, and cause-specific mortality rates among individuals detained in different facility types and following release, compared to non-incarcerated residents. We additionally modeled mortality rates over time during and after incarceration for all causes of death, violence, or suicide. Deaths in custody were 2.2 times the number reported by the national prison administration (n = 317). Incarcerated men and boys experienced elevated mortality, compared with the non-incarcerated population, due to increased risk of death from violence, suicide, and communicable diseases, with the highest standardized incidence rate ratio (IRR) in semi-open prisons (2.4; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.0 to 2.8), police stations (3.1; 95% CI: 2.5 to 3.9), and youth detention (8.1; 95% CI: 5.9 to 10.8). Incarcerated women experienced increased mortality from suicide (IRR = 6.0, 95% CI: 1.2 to 17.7) and communicable diseases (IRR = 2.5, 95% CI: 1.1 to 5.0). Following release from prison, mortality was markedly elevated for men (IRR = 3.0; 95% CI: 2.8 to 3.1) and women (IRR = 2.4; 95% CI: 2.1 to 2.9). The risk of violent death and suicide was highest immediately post-release and declined over time; however, all-cause mortality remained elevated 8 years post-release. The limitations of this study include inability to establish causality, uncertain reliability of data during incarceration, and underestimation of mortality rates due to imperfect database linkage.

CONCLUSIONS

Incarcerated individuals in Brazil experienced increased mortality from violence, suicide, and communicable diseases. Mortality was heightened following release for all leading causes of death, with particularly high risk of early violent death and elevated all-cause mortality up to 8 years post-release. These disparities may have been underrecognized in Brazil due to underreporting and insufficient data.

Impact of the gate-keeping policies of China's primary healthcare model on the future burden of tuberculosis in China: a protocol for a mathematical modelling study

INTRODUCTION

In the past three decades, China has made great strides in the prevention and treatment of tuberculosis (TB). However, the TB burden remains high. In 2019, China accounted for 8.4% of global incident cases of TB, the third highest in the world, with a higher prevalence in rural areas. The Healthy China 2030 highlights the gate-keeping role of primary healthcare (PHC). However, the impact of PHC reforms on the future TB burden is unclear. We propose to use mathematical models to project and evaluate the impacts of different gate-keeping policies.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will develop a deterministic, population-level, compartmental model to capture the dynamics of TB transmission within adult rural population. The model will incorporate seven main TB statuses, and each compartment will be subdivided by service providers. The parameters involving preference for healthcare seeking will be collected using discrete choice experiment (DCE) method. We will solve the deterministic model numerically over a 20-year (2021-2040) timeframe and predict the TB prevalence, incidence and cumulative new infections under the status quo or various policy scenarios. We will also conduct an analysis following standard protocols to calculate the average cost-effectiveness for each policy scenario relative to the status quo. A numerical calibration analysis against the available published TB prevalence data will be performed using a Bayesian approach.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Most of the data or parameters in the model will be obtained based on secondary data (eg, published literature and an open-access data set). The DCE survey has been reviewed and approved by the Ethics Committee of the School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University. The approval number is SYSU [2019]140. Results of the study will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals, media and conference presentations.

Mitigating outbreaks in congregate settings by decreasing the size of the susceptible population

While many transmission models have been developed for community spread of respiratory pathogens, less attention has been given to modeling the interdependence of disease introduction and spread seen in congregate settings, such as prisons or nursing homes. As demonstrated by the explosive outbreaks of COVID-19 seen in congregate settings, the need for effective outbreak prevention and mitigation strategies for these settings is critical. Here we consider how interventions that decrease the size of the susceptible populations, such as vaccination or depopulation, impact the expected number of infections due to outbreaks. Introduction of disease into the resident population from the community is modeled as a branching process, while spread between residents is modeled via a compartmental model. Control is modeled as a proportional decrease in both the number of susceptible residents and the reproduction number. We find that vaccination or depopulation can have a greater than linear effect on anticipated infections. For example, assuming a reproduction number of 3.0 for density-dependent COVID-19 transmission, we find that reducing the size of the susceptible population by 20% reduced overall disease burden by 47%. We highlight the California state prison system as an example for how these findings provide a quantitative framework for implementing infection control in congregate settings. Additional applications of our modeling framework include optimizing the distribution of residents into independent residential units, and comparison of preemptive versus reactive vaccination strategies.

Local and Travel-Associated Transmission of Tuberculosis at Central Western Border of Brazil, 2014-2017

International migrants are at heightened risk for tuberculosis (TB) disease. Intensified incarceration at international borders may compound population-wide TB risk. However, few studies have investigated the contributions of migration, local transmission, or prisons in driving incident TB at international borders. We conducted prospective population-based genomic surveillance in 3 cities along Brazil’s central western border from 2014–2017. Although most isolates (89/132; 67%) fell within genomic transmission clusters, genetically unique isolates disproportionately occurred among participants with recent international travel (17/42; 40.5%), suggesting that both local transmission and migration contribute to incident TB. Isolates from 40 participants with and 76 without an incarceration history clustered together throughout a maximum-likelihood phylogeny, indicating the close interrelatedness of prison and community epidemics. Our findings highlight the need for ongoing surveillance to control continued introductions of TB and reduce the disproportionate burden of TB in prisons at Brazil’s international borders.

Incidence and prevalence of tuberculosis in incarcerated populations: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Prisons are recognised as high-risk environments for tuberculosis, but there has been little systematic investigation of the global and regional incidence and prevalence of tuberculosis, and its determinants, in prisons. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the incidence and prevalence of tuberculosis in incarcerated populations by geographical region.

Methods

In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Knowledge, and the LILACS electronic database from Jan 1, 1980, to Nov 15, 2020, for cross-sectional and cohort studies reporting the incidence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, incidence of tuberculosis, or prevalence of tuberculosis among incarcerated individuals in all geographical regions. We extracted data from individual studies, and calculated pooled estimates of incidence and prevalence through hierarchical Bayesian meta-regression modelling. We also did subgroup analyses by region. Incidence rate ratios between prisons and the general population were calculated by dividing the incidence of tuberculosis in prisons by WHO estimates of the national population-level incidence.

Findings

We identified 159 relevant studies; 11 investigated the incidence of M tuberculosis infection (n=16 318), 51 investigated the incidence of tuberculosis (n=1 858 323), and 106 investigated the prevalence of tuberculosis (n=6 727 513) in incarcerated populations. The overall pooled incidence of M tuberculosis infection among prisoners was 15·0 (95% credible interval [CrI] 3·8–41·6) per 100 person-years. The incidence of tuberculosis (per 100 000 person-years) among prisoners was highest in studies from the WHO African (2190 [95% CrI 810–4840] cases) and South-East Asia (1550 [240–5300] cases) regions and in South America (970 [460–1860] cases), and lowest in North America (30 [20–50] cases) and the WHO Eastern Mediterranean region (270 [50–880] cases). The prevalence of tuberculosis was greater than 1000 per 100 000 prisoners in all global regions except for North America and the Western Pacific, and highest in the WHO South-East Asia region (1810 [95% CrI 670–4000] cases per 100 000 prisoners). The incidence rate ratio between prisons and the general population was much higher in South America (26·9; 95% CrI 17·1–40·1) than in other regions, but was nevertheless higher than ten in the WHO African (12·6; 6·2–22·3), Eastern Mediterranean (15·6; 6·5–32·5), and South-East Asia (11·7; 4·1–27·1) regions.

Interpretation

Globally, people in prison are at high risk of contracting M tuberculosis infection and developing tuberculosis, with consistent disparities between prisons and the general population across regions. Tuberculosis control programmes should prioritise preventive interventions among incarcerated populations.

Funding

US National Institutes of Health.

Covid-19 in the California State Prison System: An Observational Study of Decarceration, Ongoing Risks, and Risk Factors

Background:

Correctional institutions nationwide are seeking to mitigate Covid-19-related risks.

Objective:

To quantify changes to California’s prison population since the pandemic began and identify risk factors for Covid-19 infection.

Design:

We described residents’ demographic characteristics, health status, Covid-19 risk scores, room occupancy, and labor participation. We used Cox proportional hazard models to estimate the association between rates of Covid-19 infection and room occupancy and out-of-room labor, respectively.

Setting:

California state prisons (March 1-October 10, 2020).

Participants:

Residents of California state prisons.

Measurements:

Changes in the incarcerated population’s size, composition, housing, and activities. For the risk factor analysis, the exposure variables were room type (cells vs dormitories) and labor participation (any room occupant participating in the prior 2 weeks) and the outcome variable was incident Covid-19 case rates.

Results:

The incarcerated population decreased 19.1% (119,401 to 96,623) during the study period. On October 10, 2020, 11.5% of residents were aged ≤60, 18.3% had high Covid-19 risk scores, 31.0% participated in out-of-room labor, and 14.8% lived in rooms with ≤10 occupants. Nearly 40% of residents with high Covid-19 risk scores lived in dormitories. In 9 prisons with major outbreaks (6,928 rooms; 21,750 residents), dormitory residents had higher infection rates than cell residents (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 2.51 95%CI, 2.25-2.80) and residents of rooms with labor participation had higher rates than residents of other rooms (AHR, 1.56; 95%CI, 1.39-1.74).

Limitations:

Inability to measure density of residents’ living conditions or contact networks among residents and staff.

Conclusion:

Despite reductions in room occupancy and mixing, California prisons still house many medically vulnerable residents in risky settings. Reducing risks further requires a combination of strategies, including rehousing, decarceration, and vaccination.

Funding Sources:

Horowitz Family Foundation; National Institute on Drug Abuse; National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship; Open Society Foundations.

Yield, Efficiency, and Costs of Mass Screening Algorithms for Tuberculosis in Brazilian Prisons

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality among incarcerated populations globally. We performed mass TB screening in 3 prisons and assessed yield, efficiency, and costs associated with various screening algorithms.

METHODS

Between 2017 and 2018, inmates from 3 prisons in Brazil were screened for TB by symptom assessment, chest radiography, sputum testing by Xpert MTB/RIF fourth-generation assay, and culture. Chest radiographs were scored by an automated interpretation algorithm (Computer-Aided Detection for Tuberculosis [CAD4TB]) that was locally calibrated to establish a positivity threshold. Four diagnostic algorithms were evaluated. We assessed the yield (percentage of total cases found) and efficiency (prevalence among those screened) for each algorithm. We performed unit costing to estimate the costs of each screening or diagnostic test and calculated the cost per case detected for each algorithm.

RESULTS

We screened 5387 prisoners, of whom 214 (3.9%) were diagnosed with TB. Compared to other screening strategies initiated with chest radiography or symptoms, the trial of all participants with a single Xpert MTB/RIF sputum test detected 74% of all TB cases at a cost of US$249 per case diagnosed. Performing Xpert MTB/RIF screening tests only on those with symptoms had a similar cost per case diagnosed (US$255) but missed 35% more cases (73 vs 54) as screening all inmates.

CONCLUSIONS

In this prospective study in 3 prisons in a high TB burden country, we found that testing all inmates with sputum Xpert MTB/RIF was a sensitive approach, while remaining cost-efficient. These results support use of Xpert MTB/RIF for mass screening in TB-endemic prisons.

A systematic review of tuberculosis detection and prevention studies in prisons

Many studies have demonstrated that prisons are hotspots of tuberculosis disease and transmission. Despite this, it remains unclear which interventions are most effective at controlling tuberculosis in prisons. The objective was to determine the study designs used to investigate tuberculosis control in prisons, and the efficacy of interventions undertaken. This systematic review included published studies which had the aim of reducing TB incidence or prevalence, or increasing the number of people screened for active pulmonary tuberculosis in incarcerated populations. 2,429 records were identified, 178 full-text articles were screened, and 17 studies included. The majority of reports were before/after or prospective non-comparative studies. The median study duration was 23 months (range 5-144). The most common intervention was the introduction of active case finding (10/17 studies) but the timing and methods varied. Comparable pre- and post intervention outcome values were infrequently reported; therefore, it was not possible to quantify the efficacy of interventions. Data from studies of tuberculosis control in prisons is limited by a lack of: controlled interventions, reporting of pre-intervention methods, and comparable pre- and post-intervention outcomes. Prospective comparative trials of adequate duration to determine trends in incidence are necessary to understand which interventions are effective in prisons.

Increased incarceration rates drive growing tuberculosis burden in prisons and jeopardize overall tuberculosis control in Paraguay

Incarcerated populations are at high-risk to develop tuberculosis (TB), however their impact on the population-level tuberculosis epidemic has been scarcely studied. We aimed to describe the burden and trends of TB among incarcerated populations over time in Paraguay, its clinical and epidemiological differences and the population attributable fraction. This is an observational, descriptive study including all TB cases notified to the National TB control Program in Paraguay during the period 2009–2018. We also used case registries of prisoners diagnosed with tuberculosis from the Minister of Justice. The population attributable fraction of TB in the community due to incarcerated cases was estimated through Levin’s formula. The characteristics of TB cases in and outside of prison were compared as well as the characteristics of TB in prisons were modified over time. During 2009–2018, 2764 (9.7%) of the 28,534 TB reported cases in Paraguay occurred in prisons. The number of prisoners in Paraguay increased from 6258 in 2009 to 14,627 in 2018 (incarceration rate, 101 to 207 per 100,000 persons) while the number of TB cases among prisoners increased by 250% (n = 192 in 2009 versus n = 480 in 2018). The annual TB notification rate among male prisoners was 3218 and 3459 per 100,000 inmates in 2009 and 2018, respectively. The percentage of all TB cases occurring among prisoners increased from 7.1% in 2009 to 14.5% in 2018. The relative risk of TB in prisons compared to community was 70.3 (95% CI, 67.7–73.1); the overall population attributable risk was 9.5%. Among the 16 penitentiary centers in the country, two of them—Tacumbú (39.0%) and Ciudad del Este (23.3%)—represent two thirds of all TB cases in prisons. TB among inmates is predominantly concentrated in those 20–34 years old (77.3% of all), twice the percentage of cases for the same age group outside of prison. Our findings show that the TB epidemic in prisons represents one of the most important challenges for TB control in Paraguay, especially in the country’s largest cities. Appropriate TB control measures among incarcerated populations are needed and may have substantial impact on the overall TB burden in the country.

Primary Prophylaxis to Prevent Tuberculosis Infection in Prison Inmates: A Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Trial

In many low- and middle-income countries, tuberculosis (TB) incidence in prisons is high, exposing incarcerated populations to an elevated risk of TB infection. We conducted a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial among HIV-negative male inmates of a high TB burden prison to determine whether isoniazid given twice weekly (900 mg) for 12 months prevents TB infection. The primary outcome was QuantiFERON-TB Gold in Plus (QFT) conversion to ≥ 0.35 international units per milliliter (IU/mL) at 6 months; secondary outcomes included alternative QFT thresholds (≥ 0.7, ≥ 2.0, and ≥ 4.0 IU/mL). In total, 467 participants were randomly assigned to intervention (N = 258) or control (N = 209). In an interim analysis of participants who had completed 6 months of follow-up (N = 170), QFT conversion occurred in 20.8% (19/91) and 21.5% (17/79) of participants in intervention and control arms (efficacy: 2.9%, P = 0.91), respectively. The trial was then stopped according to the trial protocol, and the remaining participants prematurely discontinued. In an analysis of secondary outcomes, the intervention arm had significantly lower rates of conversion at a cutoff of ≥ 2.0 IU/mL (efficacy: 82.6%, P < 0.01). In conclusion, 900 mg of isoniazid, administered twice a week, did not effectively prevent QFT conversion at a cutoff point ≥ 0.35 IU/mL in a trial of QFT-negative inmates. Higher QFT cutoffs are associated with sustained conversion and greater protection. Future clinical trials that evaluate protection for latent infection should use the highest cutoff than that recommended by the manufacturer.

Managing outbreaks of highly contagious diseases in prisons: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

There are reports of outbreaks of COVID-19 in prisons in many countries. Responses to date have been highly variable and it is not clear whether public health guidance has been informed by the best available evidence. We conducted a systematic review to synthesise the evidence on outbreaks of highly contagious diseases in prison.

METHODS

We searched seven electronic databases for peer-reviewed articles and official reports published between 1 January 2000 and 28 July 2020. We included quantitative primary research that reported an outbreak of a given contagious disease in a correctional facility and examined the effects of interventions. We excluded studies that did not provide detail on interventions. We synthesised common themes using the Synthesis Without Meta-analysis (SWiM) guideline, identified gaps in the literature and critically appraised the effectiveness of various containment approaches.

RESULTS

We identified 28 relevant studies. Investigations were all based in high-income countries and documented outbreaks of tuberculosis, influenza (types A and B), varicella, measles, mumps, adenovirus and COVID-19. Several themes were common to these reports, including the public health implications of infectious disease outbreaks in prison, and the role of interagency collaboration, health communication, screening for contagious diseases, restriction, isolation and quarantine, contact tracing, immunisation programmes, epidemiological surveillance and prison-specific guidelines in addressing any outbreaks.

DISCUSSION

Prisons are high-risk settings for the transmission of contagious diseases and there are considerable challenges in managing outbreaks in them. A public health approach to managing COVID-19 in prisons is required.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42020178827.

Superspreading events in the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2: Opportunities for interventions and control

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the etiological agent of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) disease, has moved rapidly around the globe, infecting millions and killing hundreds of thousands. The basic reproduction number, which has been widely used-appropriately and less appropriately-to characterize the transmissibility of the virus, hides the fact that transmission is stochastic, often dominated by a small number of individuals, and heavily influenced by superspreading events (SSEs). The distinct transmission features of SARS-CoV-2, e.g., high stochasticity under low prevalence (as compared to other pathogens, such as influenza), and the central role played by SSEs on transmission dynamics cannot be overlooked. Many explosive SSEs have occurred in indoor settings, stoking the pandemic and shaping its spread, such as long-term care facilities, prisons, meat-packing plants, produce processing facilities, fish factories, cruise ships, family gatherings, parties, and nightclubs. These SSEs demonstrate the urgent need to understand routes of transmission, while posing an opportunity to effectively contain outbreaks with targeted interventions to eliminate SSEs. Here, we describe the different types of SSEs, how they influence transmission, empirical evidence for their role in the COVID-19 pandemic, and give recommendations for control of SARS-CoV-2.

A pandemia no cárcere: intervenções no superisolamento

Resumo Saúde prisional é, em sua essência, saúde pública. A pandemia de COVID-19 representa uma grande ameaça para o mundo e tem demonstrado que prevenir a escalada da doença em prisões faz parte do combate ao novo coronavírus na sociedade em geral. Sabe-se, até o momento, que a mais efetiva medida de contenção ao avanço da doença é o isolamento social. No entanto, em instituições penais, muitas vezes superlotadas, tal medida torna-se de difícil implementação e, quando acontece, leva a população privada de liberdade a um superisolamento, tendo consequências em sua saúde mental. Além disso, indivíduos presos sofrem com ambientes sem ventilação, falta de materiais de higiene pessoal, condições sanitárias básicas precárias e dificuldade de acesso a serviços de saúde. O presente artigo objetiva ser uma revisão narrativa sobre os efeitos da pandemia em presídios e como governos e sociedade civil têm se organizado a fim de reduzir as consequências sobre esses locais. A publicação foi dividida em três seções: na primeira, há uma revisão da literatura em saúde sobre a temática; na segunda, é tratado o modo como diferentes países estão lidando com a situação carcerária no contexto da pandemia; na terceira e última parte, é abordado o modo como o Sistema Penal brasileiro tem reagido à nova doença.

Impact of incarceration on tuberculosis incidence and its interaction with income distribution inequality in Brazil

BACKGROUND

Deteriorated conditions in the non-prison population can lead to an approximation of its tuberculosis (TB) risk to that in the prison population. We evaluated the association between incarceration and TB incidence rate and its interaction with population income distribution inequality in Brazilian municipalities (2013-2015).

METHODS

We included 954 municipalities with at least one prison. Interaction between the Gini coefficient and prison exposure was analysed in a multiple regression model. We estimated the fraction of TB in the population attributable fraction (PAF) to exposure to prisons according the Gini coefficient.

RESULTS

Compared with the non-prison population, the prisoners had 22.07 times (95% confidence interval [CI] 20.38 to 23.89) the risk of TB in municipalities where the Gini coefficient was <0.60 and 14.96 times (95% CI 11.00 to 18.92) the risk where the Gini coefficient was ≥0.60. A negative interaction in the multiplicative scale was explained by a higher TB incidence in the non-prison population in municipalities with a Gini coefficient ≥0.60. The PAF ranged from 50.06% to 5.19% in municipalities with Gini coefficients <0.40 and ≥0.60, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Interventions to reduce prison exposure would have an ostensible impact in population TB incidence rates mainly in settings with lower Gini coefficients. In those with extreme inequality in income distribution, strategies focused on mitigating the effects of socio-economic factors should also be prioritized.

Correction: Evaluating strategies for control of tuberculosis in prisons and prevention of spillover into communities: An observational and modeling study from Brazil

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002737.].