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Wang HR, Liu T, Gao X, Wang HB, Xiao JH. Impact of climate change on the global circulation of West Nile virus and adaptation responses: a scoping review. Infect Dis Poverty 2024; 13:38. [PMID: 38790027 PMCID: PMC11127377 DOI: 10.1186/s40249-024-01207-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/03/2024] [Accepted: 05/17/2024] [Indexed: 05/26/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND West Nile virus (WNV), the most widely distributed flavivirus causing encephalitis globally, is a vector-borne pathogen of global importance. The changing climate is poised to reshape the landscape of various infectious diseases, particularly vector-borne ones like WNV. Understanding the anticipated geographical and range shifts in disease transmission due to climate change, alongside effective adaptation strategies, is critical for mitigating future public health impacts. This scoping review aims to consolidate evidence on the impact of climate change on WNV and to identify a spectrum of applicable adaptation strategies. MAIN BODY We systematically analyzed research articles from PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, and EBSCOhost. Our criteria included English-language research articles published between 2007 and 2023, focusing on the impacts of climate change on WNV and related adaptation strategies. We extracted data concerning study objectives, populations, geographical focus, and specific findings. Literature was categorized into two primary themes: 1) climate-WNV associations, and 2) climate change impacts on WNV transmission, providing a clear understanding. Out of 2168 articles reviewed, 120 met our criteria. Most evidence originated from North America (59.2%) and Europe (28.3%), with a primary focus on human cases (31.7%). Studies on climate-WNV correlations (n = 83) highlighted temperature (67.5%) as a pivotal climate factor. In the analysis of climate change impacts on WNV (n = 37), most evidence suggested that climate change may affect the transmission and distribution of WNV, with the extent of the impact depending on local and regional conditions. Although few studies directly addressed the implementation of adaptation strategies for climate-induced disease transmission, the proposed strategies (n = 49) fell into six categories: 1) surveillance and monitoring (38.8%), 2) predictive modeling (18.4%), 3) cross-disciplinary collaboration (16.3%), 4) environmental management (12.2%), 5) public education (8.2%), and 6) health system readiness (6.1%). Additionally, we developed an accessible online platform to summarize the evidence on climate change impacts on WNV transmission ( https://2xzl2o-neaop.shinyapps.io/WNVScopingReview/ ). CONCLUSIONS This review reveals that climate change may affect the transmission and distribution of WNV, but the literature reflects only a small share of the global WNV dynamics. There is an urgent need for adaptive responses to anticipate and respond to the climate-driven spread of WNV. Nevertheless, studies focusing on these adaptation responses are sparse compared to those examining the impacts of climate change. Further research on the impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies for vector-borne diseases, along with more comprehensive evidence synthesis, is needed to inform effective policy responses tailored to local contexts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hao-Ran Wang
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, 150030, Heilongjiang, People's Republic of China
- Heilongjiang Key Laboratory for Laboratory Animals and Comparative Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, 150030, Heilongjiang, People's Republic of China
| | - Tao Liu
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, 150030, Heilongjiang, People's Republic of China
- Heilongjiang Key Laboratory for Laboratory Animals and Comparative Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, 150030, Heilongjiang, People's Republic of China
| | - Xiang Gao
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, 150030, Heilongjiang, People's Republic of China
- Heilongjiang Key Laboratory for Laboratory Animals and Comparative Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, 150030, Heilongjiang, People's Republic of China
| | - Hong-Bin Wang
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, 150030, Heilongjiang, People's Republic of China
- Heilongjiang Key Laboratory for Laboratory Animals and Comparative Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, 150030, Heilongjiang, People's Republic of China
| | - Jian-Hua Xiao
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, 150030, Heilongjiang, People's Republic of China.
- Heilongjiang Key Laboratory for Laboratory Animals and Comparative Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, 150030, Heilongjiang, People's Republic of China.
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Ghanim AAJ, Anjum MN, Rasool G, Saifullah, Irfan M, Rahman S, Mursal SNF, Niazi UM. Assessing spatiotemporal trends of total and extreme precipitation in a subtropical highland region: A climate perspective. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0289570. [PMID: 37540654 PMCID: PMC10403077 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0289570] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/27/2023] [Accepted: 07/20/2023] [Indexed: 08/06/2023] Open
Abstract
This study used a dataset of 30 years (1990-2020) of daily observations from 24 meteorological stations in the northern highlands of Pakistan to assess trends in extreme precipitation indices. The RClimDex model was used to analyze the indices, and the Modified Mann-Kendal test and the Theil-Sen slope estimator were applied to determine trends and slopes, respectively. The results showed a significant decrease in total annual precipitation amount (PRCPTOT) with varying rates of negative trend from -4.44 mm/year to -19.63 mm/year. The total winter and monsoon precipitation amounts were also decreased during the past three decades. The intensity-based precipitation indices (RX1Day, RX5Day, R95p, R99p, and SDII) showed a significant decrease in extreme intensity events over time, while the count of consecutive dry days (CDD) and consecutive wet days (CWD) indicated a significant decrease in duration at multiple stations. The annual counts of days with precipitation more than or equal to 10 mm (R10), 20 mm (R20), and 25 mm (R25) exhibited a significant decrease in frequency of extreme precipitation events, with the decrease more pronounced in the northern parts of the study domain. The findings of this study indicate a significant decline in the intensity, frequency, and extent of precipitation extremes across the northern highlands of Pakistan over the past 30 years.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Muhammad Naveed Anjum
- Department of Land and Water Conservation Engineering, Pir Mehr Ali Shah Arid Agriculture University Rawalpindi, Rawalpindi, Pakistan
| | - Ghulam Rasool
- Department of Land and Water Conservation Engineering, Pir Mehr Ali Shah Arid Agriculture University Rawalpindi, Rawalpindi, Pakistan
| | - Saifullah
- Department of Land and Water Conservation Engineering, Pir Mehr Ali Shah Arid Agriculture University Rawalpindi, Rawalpindi, Pakistan
| | - Muhammad Irfan
- Electrical Engineering Department, College of Engineering, Najran University, Najran, Saudi Arabia
| | - Saifur Rahman
- Electrical Engineering Department, College of Engineering, Najran University, Najran, Saudi Arabia
| | - Salim Nasar Faraj Mursal
- Electrical Engineering Department, College of Engineering, Najran University, Najran, Saudi Arabia
| | - Usama Muhammad Niazi
- Department of Mechanical Engineering Technology, National Skills University Islamabad, Islamabad, Pakistan
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Zaw W, Lin Z, Ko Ko J, Rotejanaprasert C, Pantanilla N, Ebener S, Maude RJ. Dengue in Myanmar: Spatiotemporal epidemiology, association with climate and short-term prediction. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2023; 17:e0011331. [PMID: 37276226 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0011331] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/17/2022] [Accepted: 04/24/2023] [Indexed: 06/07/2023] Open
Abstract
Dengue is a major public health problem in Myanmar. The country aims to reduce morbidity by 50% and mortality by 90% by 2025 based on 2015 data. To support efforts to reach these goals it is important to have a detailed picture of the epidemiology of dengue, its relationship to meteorological factors and ideally to predict ahead of time numbers of cases to plan resource allocations and control efforts. Health facility-level data on numbers of dengue cases from 2012 to 2017 were obtained from the Vector Borne Disease Control Unit, Department of Public Health, Myanmar. A detailed analysis of routine dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) incidence was conducted to examine the spatial and temporal epidemiology. Incidence was compared to climate data over the same period. Dengue was found to be widespread across the country with an increase in spatial extent over time. The temporal pattern of dengue cases and fatalities was episodic with annual outbreaks and no clear longitudinal trend. There were 127,912 reported cases and 632 deaths from 2012 and 2017 with peaks in 2013, 2015 and 2017. The case fatality rate was around 0.5% throughout. The peak season of dengue cases was from May to August in the wet season but in 2014 peak dengue season continued until November. The strength of correlation of dengue incidence with different climate factors (total rainfall, maximum, mean and minimum temperature and absolute humidity) varied between different States and Regions. Monthly incidence was forecasted 1 month ahead using the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method at country and subnational levels. With further development and validation, this may be a simple way to quickly generate short-term predictions at subnational scales with sufficient certainty to use for intervention planning.
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Affiliation(s)
- Win Zaw
- Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Zaw Lin
- Vector Borne Disease Control, Department of Public Health, Ministry of Health, Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar
| | - July Ko Ko
- Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Chawarat Rotejanaprasert
- Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
- Department of Tropical Hygiene, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Neriza Pantanilla
- Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Steeve Ebener
- Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Richard James Maude
- Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
- Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
- The Open University, Milton Keynes, United Kingdom
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Said TAE, Ibrahim SMMM, Hammad MY, Youssef NE. Identity of tissue culture adapted Rift Valley Fever Virus (ZH501).. [DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-2456880/v1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 09/01/2023]
Abstract
Abstract
Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is still a threatening zoonotic disease with periodic reemergence in several countries. Egypt is endemic with RVF and uses an inactivated vaccine for control of the disease. Routine testing of the tissue culture adapted seed virus (ZH501-TC), to assess the effect of nucleotide mutations, is essential for the purpose of vaccine production. At the present work we have analyzed partial nucleotide and deduced amino acid sequence of amplified 745 bp product of M segment Gn ectodomain and checked virulence in mice. Allocation of ZH501-TC strain at the A designated lineage with the virulent parental RVFV isolated in 1977, ZH501 Egy Sh 77 indicates its genomic stability after passaging in tissue culture cells for vaccine preparation. Here we denoted a new missense nucleotide mutation A1312G corresponding to the amino acid mutation N371S, in current study the ZH501-TC strain (MZ218760) compared to the parental virulent RVFV isolate ZH501 Egy Sh 77 ( previous sequence ). That mutation enhanced ß sheet formation in ZH501-TC 367AQYASAYCS375 motif which might increase virus antigenicity. In addition, we have confirmed the presence of two sites of nucleotides substitutions; C1033T and A1206C, corresponding to two amino acids changes; T287I and S336R. Our study declared the false notion of the presence of one missense nucleotide mutation; A1252G corresponding to the amino acid mutation K351R, and two other silent nucleotide substitutions; T1257A and G1258C at the strain ZH501-VSVRI. Although we found these mutations, the virulence of the ZH501-TC strain was still present as approved by mice pathogenicity test.
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Li C, Wang Z, Yan Y, Qu Y, Hou L, Li Y, Chu C, Woodward A, Schikowski T, Saldiva PHN, Liu Q, Zhao Q, Ma W. Association Between Hydrological Conditions and Dengue Fever Incidence in Coastal Southeastern China From 2013 to 2019. JAMA Netw Open 2023; 6:e2249440. [PMID: 36598784 PMCID: PMC9857674 DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.49440] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/05/2023] Open
Abstract
IMPORTANCE Dengue fever is a climate-sensitive infectious disease. However, its association with local hydrological conditions and the role of city development remain unclear. OBJECTIVE To quantify the association between hydrological conditions and dengue fever incidence in China and to explore the modification role of city development in this association. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This cross-sectional study collected data between January 1, 2013, and December 31, 2019, from 54 cities in 4 coastal provinces in southeast China. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was calculated from ambient temperature and precipitation, with SPEI thresholds of 2 for extreme wet conditions and -2 for extreme dry conditions. The SPEI-dengue fever incidence association was examined over a 6-month lag, and the modification roles of 5 city development dimensions were assessed. Data were analyzed in May 2022. EXPOSURES City-level monthly temperature, precipitation, SPEI, and annual city development indicators from 2013 to 2019. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was city-level monthly dengue fever incidence. Spatiotemporal bayesian hierarchal models were used to examine the SPEI-dengue fever incidence association over a 6-month lag period. An interaction term between SPEI and each city development indicator was added into the model to assess the modification role of city development. RESULTS Included in the analysis were 70 006 dengue fever cases reported in 54 cities in 4 provinces in China from 2013 to 2019. Overall, a U-shaped cumulative curve was observed, with wet and dry conditions both associated with increased dengue fever risk. The relative risk [RR] peaked at a 1-month lag for extreme wet conditions (1.27; 95% credible interval [CrI], 1.05-1.53) and at a 6-month lag for extreme dry conditions (1.63; 95% CrI, 1.29-2.05). The RRs of extreme wet and dry conditions were greater in areas with limited economic development, health care resources, and income per capita. Extreme dry conditions were higher and prolonged in areas with more green space per capita (RR, 1.84; 95% CrI, 1.37-2.46). Highly urbanized areas had a higher risk of dengue fever after extreme wet conditions (RR, 1.80; 95% CrI, 1.26-2.56), while less urbanized areas had the highest risk of dengue fever in extreme dry conditions (RR, 1.70; 95% CrI, 1.11-2.60). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Results of this study showed that extreme hydrological conditions were associated with increased dengue fever incidence within a 6-month lag period, with different dimensions of city development playing various modification roles in this association. These findings may help in developing climate change adaptation strategies and public health interventions against dengue fever.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chuanxi Li
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
- Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Zhendong Wang
- Dezhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Dezhou, China
| | - Yu Yan
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
- Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Yinan Qu
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
- Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Liangyu Hou
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
- Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Yijie Li
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
- Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Cordia Chu
- Centre for Environment and Population Health, School of Medicine, Griffith University, Nathan, Queensland, Australia
| | - Alistair Woodward
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Population Health, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Tamara Schikowski
- Department of Epidemiology, IUF-Leibniz Research Institute for Environmental Medicine, Düsseldorf, Germany
| | | | - Qiyong Liu
- Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Shandong University, Jinan, China
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
- Department of Vector Control, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Qi Zhao
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
- Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Shandong University, Jinan, China
- Department of Epidemiology, IUF-Leibniz Research Institute for Environmental Medicine, Düsseldorf, Germany
| | - Wei Ma
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
- Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Shandong University, Jinan, China
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Marina R, Ariati J, Anwar A, Astuti EP, Dhewantara PW. Climate and vector-borne diseases in Indonesia: a systematic literature review and critical appraisal of evidence. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2023; 67:1-28. [PMID: 36367556 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-022-02390-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/24/2022] [Revised: 09/10/2022] [Accepted: 10/12/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Climate is widely known as an important driver to transmit vector-borne diseases (VBD). However, evidence of the role of climate variability on VBD risk in Indonesia has not been adequately understood. We conducted a systematic literature review to collate and critically review studies on the relationship between climate variability and VBD in Indonesia. We searched articles on PubMed, Scopus, and Google Scholar databases that are published until December 2021. Studies that reported the relationship of climate and VBD, such as dengue, chikungunya, Zika, and malaria, were included. For the reporting, we followed the guidelines of the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement. A total of 66 out of 284 studies were reviewed. Fifty-two (78.8%) papers investigated dengue, 13 (19.7%) papers studied malaria, one (1.5%) paper discussed chikungunya, and no (0%) paper reported on Zika. The studies were predominantly conducted in western Indonesian cities. Most studies have examined the short-term effect of climate variability on the incidence of VBD at national, sub-national, and local levels. Rainfall (n = 60/66; 90.9%), mean temperature (Tmean) (n = 50/66; 75.8%), and relative humidity (RH) (n = 50/66; 75.8%) were the common climatic factors employed in the studies. The effect of climate on the incidence of VBD was heterogenous across locations. Only a few studies have investigated the long-term effects of climate on the distribution and incidence of VBD. The paucity of high-quality epidemiological data and variation in methodology are two major issues that limit the generalizability of evidence. A unified framework is required for future research to assess the impacts of climate on VBD in Indonesia to provide reliable evidence for better policymaking.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rina Marina
- Vector-borne and Zoonotic Diseases Research Group, Research Center for Public Health and Nutrition, Cibinong Science Center, National Research and Innovation Agency, Jl. Raya Jakarta-Bogor KM.46, Bogor, West Java, 16915, Indonesia.
| | - Jusniar Ariati
- Center for Health Services Policy, Health Policy Agency, Ministry of Health of Indonesia, Jl. Percetakan Negara No. 29, Jakarta, 10560, Indonesia
| | - Athena Anwar
- Research Center for Climate and Atmosphere, National Agency for Research and Innovation, Jl. Djunjunan No. 133, Bandung, 40174, Indonesia
| | - Endang Puji Astuti
- Vector-borne and Zoonotic Diseases Research Group, Research Center for Public Health and Nutrition, Cibinong Science Center, National Research and Innovation Agency, Jl. Raya Jakarta-Bogor KM.46, Bogor, West Java, 16915, Indonesia
| | - Pandji Wibawa Dhewantara
- Vector-borne and Zoonotic Diseases Research Group, Research Center for Public Health and Nutrition, Cibinong Science Center, National Research and Innovation Agency, Jl. Raya Jakarta-Bogor KM.46, Bogor, West Java, 16915, Indonesia
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Chanhanga N, Mindu T, Mogaka J, Chimbari M. The Impact of Targeted Treatment and Mass Drug Administration Delivery Strategies on the Prevalence and Intensity of Schistosomiasis in School Aged Children in Africa: A Systematic Review. Infect Drug Resist 2023; 16:2453-2466. [PMID: 37138838 PMCID: PMC10150034 DOI: 10.2147/idr.s395382] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/04/2022] [Accepted: 03/16/2023] [Indexed: 05/05/2023] Open
Abstract
Schistosomiasis is a public health problem in more than 78 countries in the world. The disease is most prevalent among children than adults due to their high exposure to infectious water sources. Various interventions such as mass drug administration (MDA), snail control, safe water provision and health education have been implemented independently or jointly to control, reduce and ultimately eliminate Schistosomiasis. This scoping review focused on studies reporting the impact of different delivery strategies of targeted treatment and MDA on the prevalence and intensity of schistosomiasis infection in school aged children in Africa. The review focused on Schistosoma haematobium and Schistosoma mansoni species. A systematic search for eligible literature from peer-reviewed articles was done from Google Scholar, Medline, PubMed and EBSCO host databases. The search yielded twenty-seven peer-reviewed articles. All articles found reported a decrease in the prevalence of schistosomiasis infection. Five studies (18.5%) reported a prevalence change below 40%, eighteen studies (66.7%) reported a change between 40% and 80%, and four studies (14.8%) reported a change above 80%. The infection intensity post-treatment was varied: twenty-four studies reported a decrease, while two studies reported an increase. The review showed that the impact of targeted treatment on the prevalence and intensity of schistosomiasis depended on the frequency at which it was offered, complementary interventions, and its uptake by the target population. Targeted treatment can significantly control the infection burden, but cannot eliminate the disease. Constant MDA programs coupled with preventative and health promotional programs are required to reach the elimination stage.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nathan Chanhanga
- School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Tafadzwa Mindu
- School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu Natal, Durban, South Africa
- Correspondence: Tafadzwa Mindu, Email
| | - John Mogaka
- School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Moses Chimbari
- School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu Natal, Durban, South Africa
- Research and Innovation, Great Zimbabwe University, Masvingo, Zimbabwe
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Li C, Managi S. Global malaria infection risk from climate change. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2022; 214:114028. [PMID: 35940231 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.114028] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/22/2022] [Revised: 07/19/2022] [Accepted: 07/30/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
As a long-standing public health issue, malaria still severely affects many parts of the world, especially Africa. With greenhouse gas emissions, temperatures continue to rise. Based on diverse shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), future temperatures can be estimated. However, the impacts of climate change on malaria infection rates in all epidemic regions are unknown. Here, we estimate the differences in global malaria infection rates predicted under different SSPs during several periods as well as malaria infection case changes (MICCs) resulting from those differences. Our results indicate that the global MICCs resulting from the conversion from SSP1-2.6 to SSP2-4.5, to SSP3-7.0, and to SSP5-8.5 are 6.506 (with a 95% uncertainty interval [UI] of 6.150-6.861) million, 3.655 (3.416-3.894) million, and 2.823 (2.635-3.012) million, respectively, from 2021 to 2040; these values represent increases of 2.699%, 1.517%, and 1.171%, respectively, compared to the 241 million infection cases reported in 2020. Temperatures increases will adversely affect malaria the most in Africa during the 2021-2040 period. From 2081 to 2100, the MICCs obtained for the three scenario shifts listed above are -79.109 (-83.626 to -74.591) million, -238.337 (-251.920 to -0.141) million, and -162.692 (-174.628 to -150.757) million, corresponding to increases of -32.825%, -98.895%, and -67.507%, respectively. Climate change will increase the danger and risks associated with malaria in the most vulnerable regions in the near term, thus aggravating the difficulty of eliminating malaria. Reducing GHG emissions is a potential pathway to protecting people from malaria.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chao Li
- Urban Institute, Kyushu University, 744 Motooka, Nishi-ku, Fukuoka, 819-0395, Japan
| | - Shunsuke Managi
- Urban Institute, Kyushu University, 744 Motooka, Nishi-ku, Fukuoka, 819-0395, Japan.
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Survey of Fungal Foliar and Panicle Diseases in Smallholder Sorghum Cropping Systems in Different Agro-Ecologies of Lower Eastern Kenya. MICROBIOLOGY RESEARCH 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/microbiolres13040055] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/07/2022] Open
Abstract
Sorghum is a staple food crop and plays a critical role in subsistence farming in Kenya due to its adaptability to marginal agro-ecological zones. However, fungal diseases are among the major biotic constraints of sorghum production, causing over 70% yield loss in susceptible cultivars. Information on the distribution and severity of fungal diseases is important to establish efficient and improved strategies for integrated disease management of sorghum fungal diseases. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence, incidence, severity and spatial distribution of fungal diseases on sorghum across agro-ecological zones of lower eastern Kenya. A total of 384 smallholder farmers’ fields were surveyed, and in each field, 30 plants were assessed for prevalence and incidence of fungal diseases using a W-shaped pattern to cover the whole field. Sorghum anthracnose was the most prevalent disease (71%), followed by leaf blight (70.18%), rust (68.41%), smut (63.02%), sorghum mildew (55.33%), Alternaria leaf spot (48.39%) and rough leaf spot (46.02%). Disease prevalence, incidence and severity varied among the investigated agro-ecological zones. There was a significant difference (p ≤ 0.05) in fungal disease severity across the investigated agro-ecological zones. Spatially interpolated disease maps showed a high variation in the distribution of various sorghum fungal diseases across the investigated agro-ecological zones of lower eastern Kenya. Morpho-cultural identification revealed the association of Colletotrichum sublineola with anthracnose, Curvularia lunata and Bipolaris cynodontis with leaf blight, Puccinia purpurea with rust, Peronosclerospora sorghi with downy mildew, Alternaria alternata with Alternaria leaf spot, Ascochyta sorghi with rough leaf spot and Sporisorium sorghi with covered kernel smut symptoms. Information obtained in this study will be useful to update knowledge on sorghum fungal diseases and provide a basis for the development of strategies for management and control of the investigated diseases.
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Orievulu KS, Ayeb-Karlsson S, Ngema S, Baisley K, Tanser F, Ngwenya N, Seeley J, Hanekom W, Herbst K, Kniveton D, Iwuji CC. Exploring linkages between drought and HIV treatment adherence in Africa: a systematic review. Lancet Planet Health 2022; 6:e359-e370. [PMID: 35397224 PMCID: PMC7612934 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(22)00016-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/29/2020] [Revised: 01/11/2022] [Accepted: 01/21/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is directly and indirectly linked to human health, including through access to treatment and care. Our systematic review presents a systems understanding of the nexus between drought and antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence in HIV-positive individuals in the African setting. Narrative synthesis of 111 studies retrieved from Web of Science, PubMed/MEDLINE, and PsycINFO suggests that livelihoods and economic conditions, comorbidities and ART regimens, human mobility, and psychobehavioural dispositions and support systems interact in complex ways in the drought-ART adherence nexus in Africa. Economic and livelihood-related challenges appear to impose the strongest impact on human interactions, actions, and systems that culminate in non-adherence. Indeed, the complex pathways identified by our systems approach emphasise the need for more integrated research approaches to understanding this phenomenon and developing interventions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kingsley Stephen Orievulu
- Africa Health Research Institute, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa; Centre for Africa-China Studies, University of Johannesburg, Johannesburg, South Africa; Department of Global Health and Infection, Brighton and Sussex Medical School, University of Sussex, Brighton, UK
| | - Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson
- Department of Global Health and Infection, Brighton and Sussex Medical School, University of Sussex, Brighton, UK; United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security, Bonn, Germany; Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London, London, UK; School of Global Studies, University of Sussex, Brighton, UK
| | - Sthembile Ngema
- Africa Health Research Institute, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
| | - Kathy Baisley
- Africa Health Research Institute, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa; Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Frank Tanser
- Africa Health Research Institute, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa; Lincoln Institute for Health, University of Lincoln, Lincoln, UK
| | - Nothando Ngwenya
- Africa Health Research Institute, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa; School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Janet Seeley
- Africa Health Research Institute, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa; Global Health and Development Department, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Willem Hanekom
- Africa Health Research Institute, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa; Division of Infection and Immunity, University College London, London, UK
| | - Kobus Herbst
- Africa Health Research Institute, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa; DSI-MRC South African Population Research Infrastructure Network, Durban, South Africa
| | | | - Collins C Iwuji
- Africa Health Research Institute, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa; Department of Global Health and Infection, Brighton and Sussex Medical School, University of Sussex, Brighton, UK.
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11
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Anyamba A, Damoah R, Kemp A, Small JL, Rostal MK, Bagge W, Cordel C, Brand R, Karesh WB, Paweska JT. Climate Conditions During a Rift Valley Fever Post-epizootic Period in Free State, South Africa, 2014–2019. Front Vet Sci 2022; 8:730424. [PMID: 35187137 PMCID: PMC8848741 DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2021.730424] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/24/2021] [Accepted: 12/20/2021] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) activity in Southern Africa tends to occur during periods of sustained elevated rainfall, cooler than normal conditions, and abundant vegetation cover creating ideal conditions for the increase and propagation of populations of RVFV mosquito vectors. These climatic and ecological conditions are modulated by large-scale tropical-wide El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena. The aim of this 5-year study was to investigate climatic conditions during Rift Valley fever “post-epizootic” period in Free State province of the Republic of South Africa, which historically experienced the largest RVF outbreaks in this country. We collected satellite-derived rainfall, land surface temperature (LST), and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data since 2014 to understand broad environmental conditions in the years following a period of sustained and widespread large RVF outbreaks (2008–2011) in the region. We found this post-epizootic/interepizootic period to be characterized by below-normal rainfall (~-500 mm), above LSTs (~+12°C), depressed NDVI (60% below normal), and severe drought as manifested particularly during the 2015–2016 growing season. Such conditions reduce the patchwork of appropriate habitats available for emergence of RVFV vectors and diminish chances of RVFV activity. However, the 2016–2017 growing season saw a marked return to somewhat wetter conditions without any reported RVFV transmission. In general, the aggregate vector collections during this 5-year period follow patterns observed in climate measurements. During the 2017–2018 growing season, late and seasonally above average rainfall resulted in a focal RVF outbreak in one location in the study region. This unanticipated event is an indicator of cryptic RVF activity during post-epizootic period and may be a harbinger of RVFV activity in the coming years.
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Affiliation(s)
- Assaf Anyamba
- Universities Space Research Association, Columbia, MD, United States
- Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States
- *Correspondence: Assaf Anyamba
| | - Richard Damoah
- Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States
- Physics Department and Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research, Morgan State University, Baltimore, MD, United States
| | - Alan Kemp
- Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Diseases, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Jennifer L. Small
- Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States
- Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Lanham, MD, United States
| | | | | | | | - Robert Brand
- Cuyahoga County Board of Health, Parma, OH, United States
- Department of Soil, Crop and Climate Sciences, University of the Free State, Bloemfontein, South Africa
| | | | - Janusz T. Paweska
- Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Diseases, Johannesburg, South Africa
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12
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Stephens PR, Gottdenker N, Schatz AM, Schmidt JP, Drake JM. Characteristics of the 100 largest modern zoonotic disease outbreaks. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2021; 376:20200535. [PMID: 34538141 PMCID: PMC8450623 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2020.0535] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 08/14/2021] [Indexed: 12/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Zoonotic disease outbreaks are an important threat to human health and numerous drivers have been recognized as contributing to their increasing frequency. Identifying and quantifying relationships between drivers of zoonotic disease outbreaks and outbreak severity is critical to developing targeted zoonotic disease surveillance and outbreak prevention strategies. However, quantitative studies of outbreak drivers on a global scale are lacking. Attributes of countries such as press freedom, surveillance capabilities and latitude also bias global outbreak data. To illustrate these issues, we review the characteristics of the 100 largest outbreaks in a global dataset (n = 4463 bacterial and viral zoonotic outbreaks), and compare them with 200 randomly chosen background controls. Large outbreaks tended to have more drivers than background outbreaks and were related to large-scale environmental and demographic factors such as changes in vector abundance, human population density, unusual weather conditions and water contamination. Pathogens of large outbreaks were more likely to be viral and vector-borne than background outbreaks. Overall, our case study shows that the characteristics of large zoonotic outbreaks with thousands to millions of cases differ consistently from those of more typical outbreaks. We also discuss the limitations of our work, hoping to pave the way for more comprehensive future studies. This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease macroecology: parasite diversity and dynamics across the globe'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Patrick R. Stephens
- Odum School of Ecology and Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, 30602 GA, USA
| | - N. Gottdenker
- Odum School of Ecology and Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, 30602 GA, USA
- Department of Pathology, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Georgia, Athens, 30602 GA, USA
| | - A. M. Schatz
- Odum School of Ecology and Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, 30602 GA, USA
| | - J. P. Schmidt
- Odum School of Ecology and Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, 30602 GA, USA
| | - John M. Drake
- Odum School of Ecology and Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, 30602 GA, USA
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13
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Asmall T, Abrams A, Röösli M, Cissé G, Carden K, Dalvie MA. The adverse health effects associated with drought in Africa. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021; 793:148500. [PMID: 34174598 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148500] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/23/2020] [Revised: 06/11/2021] [Accepted: 06/13/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Droughts are associated with several health effects and Africa is uniquely vulnerable. Despite this, there has been no previous review of the literature on the health effects of drought in Africa. This study systematically reviewed the epidemiological research on the association between drought and adverse health effects in Africa (2012-2019). A total of fifteen articles were included in the review after screening 1922 published (peer-reviewed) and unpublished articles. These studies were all conducted in 9 Sub-Saharan African countries. The drought-related health effects identified were on adverse nutritional health (n = 8) including malnutrition resulting in reduced body size and wasting, stunting and underweight, mortality from food insecurity, anaemia from food insecurity and nutrition-related disability from food insecurity; drought and diseases due to microbial contamination of water (n = 6) including cholera, diarrhoeal diseases, scabies, vector-borne diseases and malaria-related mortality; and drought and health behaviours (n = 1) including HIV prevention and care behaviours. The study found limited evidence of a high prevalence of malnutrition, an increased prevalence of anaemia, cholera, scabies, dengue and an increased incidence in child disabilities during periods of drought. Additionally, there was limited evidence on improved child nutritional health with improved water and sanitation access, and an increased prevalence of child wasting, stunting and underweight in drought-prone areas. No evidence of drought on other health outcomes was found. However, all the studies had more than one limitation including weak study design, a lack of comparison to a drought period, uncertainty on the onset and end of drought, lack of control for confounding, presence of contextual factors, weak outcome and/or exposure measure, small sample size and lack of generalizability. This review found weak evidence for all health outcomes measured but highlights key areas for further research and contextual factors which need to be considered for interventions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Taherah Asmall
- Centre for Environmental and Occupational Health Research, School of Public Health and Family Medicine, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.
| | - Amber Abrams
- Future Water Institute, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, 7700, Cape Town, South Africa.
| | - Martin Röösli
- Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, P.O. Box, CH-4002, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, P.O. Box, CH-4003, Basel, Switzerland.
| | - Guéladio Cissé
- Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, P.O. Box, CH-4002, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, P.O. Box, CH-4003, Basel, Switzerland.
| | - Kirsty Carden
- Future Water Institute, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, 7700, Cape Town, South Africa.
| | - Mohamed Aqiel Dalvie
- Centre for Environmental and Occupational Health Research, School of Public Health and Family Medicine, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa; Future Water Institute, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, 7700, Cape Town, South Africa.
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14
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Lim AY, Cheong HK, Chung Y, Sim K, Kim JH. Mosquito abundance in relation to extremely high temperatures in urban and rural areas of Incheon Metropolitan City, South Korea from 2015 to 2020: an observational study. Parasit Vectors 2021; 14:559. [PMID: 34715902 PMCID: PMC8555308 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-021-05071-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/07/2021] [Accepted: 10/16/2021] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Despite concerns regarding increasingly frequent and intense heat waves due to global warming, there is still a lack of information on the effects of extremely high temperatures on the adult abundance of mosquito species that are known to transmit vector-borne diseases. This study aimed to evaluate the effects of extremely high temperatures on the abundance of mosquitoes by analyzing time series data for temperature and mosquito abundance in Incheon Metropolitan City (IMC), Republic of Korea, for the period from 2015 to 2020. METHODS A generalized linear model with Poisson distribution and overdispersion was used to model the nonlinear association between temperature and mosquito count for the whole study area and for its constituent urban and rural regions. The association parameters were pooled using multivariate meta-regression. The temperature-mosquito abundance curve was estimated from the pooled estimates, and the ambient temperature at which mosquito populations reached maximum abundance (TMA) was estimated using a Monte Carlo simulation method. To quantify the effect of extremely high temperatures on mosquito abundance, we estimated the mosquito abundance ratio (AR) at the 99th temperature percentile (AR99th) against the TMA. RESULTS Culex pipiens was the most common mosquito species (51.7%) in the urban region of the IMC, while mosquitoes of the genus Aedes (Ochlerotatus) were the most common in the rural region (47.8%). Mosquito abundance reached a maximum at 23.5 °C for Cx. pipiens and 26.4 °C for Aedes vexans. Exposure to extremely high temperatures reduced the abundance of Cx. pipiens mosquitoes {AR99th 0.34 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.21-0.54]} to a greater extent than that of Anopheles spp. [AR99th 0.64 (95% CI 0.40-1.03)]. When stratified by region, Ae. vexans and Ochlerotatus koreicus mosquitoes showed higher TMA and a smaller reduction in abundance at extreme heat in urban Incheon than in Ganghwa, suggesting that urban mosquitoes can thrive at extremely high temperatures as they adapt to urban thermal environments. CONCLUSIONS We confirmed that the temperature-related abundance of the adult mosquitoes was species and location specific. Tailoring measures for mosquito prevention and control according to mosquito species and anticipated extreme temperature conditions would help to improve the effectiveness of mosquito-borne disease control programs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ah-Young Lim
- Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Suwon, Gyeonggi-do, Republic of Korea
| | - Hae-Kwan Cheong
- Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Suwon, Gyeonggi-do, Republic of Korea
| | - Yeonseung Chung
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon, Republic of Korea
| | - Kisung Sim
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon, Republic of Korea
| | - Jong-Hun Kim
- Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Suwon, Gyeonggi-do, Republic of Korea.
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15
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Coalson JE, Anderson EJ, Santos EM, Madera Garcia V, Romine JK, Luzingu JK, Dominguez B, Richard DM, Little AC, Hayden MH, Ernst KC. The Complex Epidemiological Relationship between Flooding Events and Human Outbreaks of Mosquito-Borne Diseases: A Scoping Review. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES 2021; 129:96002. [PMID: 34582261 PMCID: PMC8478154 DOI: 10.1289/ehp8887] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/28/2020] [Revised: 08/10/2021] [Accepted: 08/19/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of flooding events. Although rainfall is highly correlated with mosquito-borne diseases (MBD) in humans, less research focuses on understanding the impact of flooding events on disease incidence. This lack of research presents a significant gap in climate change-driven disease forecasting. OBJECTIVES We conducted a scoping review to assess the strength of evidence regarding the potential relationship between flooding and MBD and to determine knowledge gaps. METHODS PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science were searched through 31 December 2020 and supplemented with review of citations in relevant publications. Studies on rainfall were included only if the operationalization allowed for distinction of unusually heavy rainfall events. Data were abstracted by disease (dengue, malaria, or other) and stratified by post-event timing of disease assessment. Studies that conducted statistical testing were summarized in detail. RESULTS From 3,008 initial results, we included 131 relevant studies (dengue n = 45 , malaria n = 61 , other MBD n = 49 ). Dengue studies indicated short-term (< 1 month ) decreases and subsequent (1-4 month) increases in incidence. Malaria studies indicated post-event incidence increases, but the results were mixed, and the temporal pattern was less clear. Statistical evidence was limited for other MBD, though findings suggest that human outbreaks of Murray Valley encephalitis, Ross River virus, Barmah Forest virus, Rift Valley fever, and Japanese encephalitis may follow flooding. DISCUSSION Flooding is generally associated with increased incidence of MBD, potentially following a brief decrease in incidence for some diseases. Methodological inconsistencies significantly limit direct comparison and generalizability of study results. Regions with established MBD and weather surveillance should be leveraged to conduct multisite research to a) standardize the quantification of relevant flooding, b) study nonlinear relationships between rainfall and disease, c) report outcomes at multiple lag periods, and d) investigate interacting factors that modify the likelihood and severity of outbreaks across different settings. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP8887.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jenna E. Coalson
- Center for Insect Science, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA
| | | | - Ellen M. Santos
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Arizona Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, Tucson, Arizona, USA
| | - Valerie Madera Garcia
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Arizona Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, Tucson, Arizona, USA
| | - James K. Romine
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Arizona Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, Tucson, Arizona, USA
| | - Joy K. Luzingu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Arizona Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, Tucson, Arizona, USA
| | - Brian Dominguez
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Arizona Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, Tucson, Arizona, USA
| | - Danielle M. Richard
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Arizona Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, Tucson, Arizona, USA
| | - Ashley C. Little
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Arizona Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, Tucson, Arizona, USA
| | - Mary H. Hayden
- National Institute for Human Resilience, University of Colorado Colorado Springs, Colorado Springs, Colorado, USA
| | - Kacey C. Ernst
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Arizona Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, Tucson, Arizona, USA
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16
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Impacts of changes in temperature and exposure time on the median lethal concentrations (LC50) of a combination of organophosphate and pyrethroid in the control of Culex quinquefasciatus, say (Diptera: Culicidae). SCIENTIFIC AFRICAN 2021. [DOI: 10.1016/j.sciaf.2021.e00743] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
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17
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Cheng J, Bambrick H, Frentiu FD, Devine G, Yakob L, Xu Z, Li Z, Yang W, Hu W. Extreme weather events and dengue outbreaks in Guangzhou, China: a time-series quasi-binomial distributed lag non-linear model. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2021; 65:1033-1042. [PMID: 33598765 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-021-02085-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/07/2020] [Revised: 01/14/2021] [Accepted: 01/19/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Dengue transmission is climate-sensitive and permissive conditions regularly cause large outbreaks in Asia-Pacific area. As climate change progresses, extreme weather events such as heatwaves and unusually high rainfall are predicted more intense and frequent, but their impacts on dengue outbreaks remain unclear so far. This paper aimed to investigate the relationship between extreme weather events (i.e., heatwaves, extremely high rainfall and extremely high humidity) and dengue outbreaks in China. We obtained daily number of locally acquired dengue cases and weather factors for Guangzhou, China, for the period 2006-2015. The definition of dengue outbreaks was based on daily number of locally acquired cases above the threshold (i.e., mean + 2SD of daily distribution of dengue cases during peaking period). Heatwave was defined as ≥2 days with temperature ≥ 95th percentile, and extreme rainfall and humidity defined as daily values ≥95th percentile during 2006-2015. A generalized additive model was used to examine the associations between extreme weather events and dengue outbreaks. Results showed that all three extreme weather events were associated with increased risk of dengue outbreaks, with a risk increase of 115-251% around 6 weeks after heatwaves, 173-258% around 6-13 weeks after extremely high rainfall, and 572-587% around 6-13 weeks after extremely high humidity. Each extreme weather event also had good capacity in predicting dengue outbreaks, with the model's sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve all exceeding 86%. This study found that heatwaves, extremely high rainfall, and extremely high humidity could act as potential drivers of dengue outbreaks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jian Cheng
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, 4059, Australia
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics & Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Major Autoimmune Disease, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Anhui, China
| | - Hilary Bambrick
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, 4059, Australia
| | - Francesca D Frentiu
- Centre for Immunology and Infection Control, School of Biomedical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Gregor Devine
- Mosquito Control Laboratory, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Laith Yakob
- Department of Disease Control, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Zhiwei Xu
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, 4059, Australia
- School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Zhongjie Li
- Division of Infectious Disease, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early Warning of Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Weizhong Yang
- Division of Infectious Disease, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early Warning of Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
- School of Population Medicine & Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences/Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Wenbiao Hu
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, 4059, Australia.
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18
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Agboli E, Zahouli JBZ, Badolo A, Jöst H. Mosquito-Associated Viruses and Their Related Mosquitoes in West Africa. Viruses 2021; 13:v13050891. [PMID: 34065928 PMCID: PMC8151702 DOI: 10.3390/v13050891] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/15/2021] [Revised: 05/05/2021] [Accepted: 05/06/2021] [Indexed: 12/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Mosquito-associated viruses (MAVs), including mosquito-specific viruses (MSVs) and mosquito-borne (arbo)viruses (MBVs), are an increasing public, veterinary, and global health concern, and West Africa is projected to be the next front for arboviral diseases. As in-depth knowledge of the ecologies of both western African MAVs and related mosquitoes is still limited, we review available and comprehensive data on their diversity, abundance, and distribution. Data on MAVs’ occurrence and related mosquitoes were extracted from peer-reviewed publications. Data on MSVs, and mosquito and vertebrate host ranges are sparse. However, more data are available on MBVs (i.e., dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya, Zika, and Rift Valley fever viruses), detected in wild and domestic animals, and humans, with infections more concentrated in urban areas and areas affected by strong anthropogenic changes. Aedes aegypti, Culex quinquefasciatus, and Aedes albopictus are incriminated as key arbovirus vectors. These findings outline MAV, related mosquitoes, key knowledge gaps, and future research areas. Additionally, these data highlight the need to increase our understanding of MAVs and their impact on host mosquito ecology, to improve our knowledge of arbovirus transmission, and to develop specific strategies and capacities for arboviral disease surveillance, diagnostic, prevention, control, and outbreak responses in West Africa.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eric Agboli
- Molecular Biology and Immunology Department, Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine, 20359 Hamburg, Germany;
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Health and Allied Sciences, Ho PMB 31, Ghana
| | - Julien B. Z. Zahouli
- Centre d’Entomologie Médicale et Vétérinaire, Université Alassane Ouattara, Bouake, 27 BP 529 Abidjan 27, Cote D’Ivoire;
- Centre Suisse de Recherches Scientifiques en Côte d’Ivoire, Département de Recherche et Développement, 01 BP 1303 Abidjan 01, Cote D’Ivoire
- Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, 4051 Basel, Switzerland
| | - Athanase Badolo
- Laboratory of Fundamental and Applied Entomology, Universitée Joseph Ki-Zerbo, Ouagadougou 03 BP 7021, Burkina Faso;
| | - Hanna Jöst
- Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine, WHO Collaborating Centre for Arbovirus and Hemorrhagic Fever Reference and Research, 20359 Hamburg, Germany
- Correspondence:
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19
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Wright CY, Kapwata T, du Preez DJ, Wernecke B, Garland RM, Nkosi V, Landman WA, Dyson L, Norval M. Major climate change-induced risks to human health in South Africa. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2021; 196:110973. [PMID: 33684412 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.110973] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/21/2020] [Revised: 02/26/2021] [Accepted: 03/02/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
There are many climatic changes facing South Africa which already have, or are projected to have, a detrimental impact on human health. Here the risks to health due to several alterations in the climate of South Africa are considered in turn. These include an increase in ambient temperature, causing, for example, a significant rise in morbidity and mortality; heavy rainfall leading to changes in the prevalence and occurrence of vector-borne diseases; drought-associated malnutrition; and exposure to dust storms and air pollution leading to the potential exacerbation of respiratory diseases. Existing initiatives and strategies to prevent or reduce these adverse health impacts are outlined, together with suggestions of what might be required in the future to safeguard the health of the nation. Potential roles for the health and non-health sectors as well as preparedness and capacity development with respect to climate change and health adaptation are considered.
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Affiliation(s)
- Caradee Y Wright
- Environment and Health Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Pretoria, 0001, South Africa; Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, 0001, South Africa.
| | - Thandi Kapwata
- Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, 0001, South Africa; Environment and Health Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Johannesburg, 2094, South Africa; Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Johannesburg, Johannesburg, 2094, South Africa
| | - David Jean du Preez
- Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, 0001, South Africa; Laboratoire de l'Atmosphère et des Cyclones (UMR 8105 CNRS, Université de La Réunion, Météo France), 97744, Saint-Denis de La Réunion, France
| | - Bianca Wernecke
- Environment and Health Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Johannesburg, 2094, South Africa; Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Johannesburg, Johannesburg, 2094, South Africa
| | - Rebecca M Garland
- Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, 0001, South Africa; Climate and Air Quality Modelling Research Group, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Pretoria, 0001, South Africa; Unit for Environmental Sciences and Management, North-West University, Potchefstroom, 2531, South Africa
| | - Vusumuzi Nkosi
- Environment and Health Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Johannesburg, 2094, South Africa; Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Johannesburg, Johannesburg, 2094, South Africa; School of Health Systems and Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0001, South Africa
| | - Willem A Landman
- Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, 0001, South Africa; International Research Institute for Climate and Society, The Earth Institute of Columbia University, New York, NY, 10964, USA
| | - Liesl Dyson
- Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, 0001, South Africa
| | - Mary Norval
- Biomedical Sciences, University of Edinburgh Medical School, Edinburgh, EH8 9AG, UK
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20
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Nosrat C, Altamirano J, Anyamba A, Caldwell JM, Damoah R, Mutuku F, Ndenga B, LaBeaud AD. Impact of recent climate extremes on mosquito-borne disease transmission in Kenya. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2021; 15:e0009182. [PMID: 33735293 PMCID: PMC7971569 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009182] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/29/2020] [Accepted: 01/26/2021] [Indexed: 01/12/2023] Open
Abstract
Climate change and variability influence temperature and rainfall, which impact vector abundance and the dynamics of vector-borne disease transmission. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events. Mosquito-borne diseases, such as dengue fever, are primarily transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. Freshwater availability and temperature affect dengue vector populations via a variety of biological processes and thus influence the ability of mosquitoes to effectively transmit disease. However, the effect of droughts, floods, heat waves, and cold waves is not well understood. Using vector, climate, and dengue disease data collected between 2013 and 2019 in Kenya, this retrospective cohort study aims to elucidate the impact of extreme rainfall and temperature on mosquito abundance and the risk of arboviral infections. To define extreme periods of rainfall and land surface temperature (LST), we calculated monthly anomalies as deviations from long-term means (1983–2019 for rainfall, 2000–2019 for LST) across four study locations in Kenya. We classified extreme climate events as the upper and lower 10% of these calculated LST or rainfall deviations. Monthly Ae. aegypti abundance was recorded in Kenya using four trapping methods. Blood samples were also collected from children with febrile illness presenting to four field sites and tested for dengue virus using an IgG enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and polymerase chain reaction (PCR). We found that mosquito eggs and adults were significantly more abundant one month following an abnormally wet month. The relationship between mosquito abundance and dengue risk follows a non-linear association. Our findings suggest that early warnings and targeted interventions during periods of abnormal rainfall and temperature, especially flooding, can potentially contribute to reductions in risk of viral transmission. Dengue is a rapidly spreading mosquito-borne disease transmitted primarily by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. As climate change leads to extremes in rainfall and temperature, the abundance and populations of these vectors will be affected, thus influencing transmission of dengue. Using satellite-derived climate data for Kenya, we classified months that experienced highly abnormal rainfall and temperature as extreme climate events (floods, droughts, heat waves, or cold waves). We compared the average monthly Ae. aegypti abundance and confirmed dengue counts following extreme climate months using lag periods of one month and two months, respectively. This study utilized several statistical models to account for differences among study sites and time. Floods resulted in significantly increased egg and adult abundance. Our results contributed to a better understanding of the effect of climate variability and change on dengue. As suggested by our observed increase in vector counts yet a relatively unchanged dengue infection risk, human behavior can help reduce viral transmission. Targeted interventions should be focused on both reducing vector populations and limiting human-vector contact, especially during these climate anomalies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cameron Nosrat
- Program in Human Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Jonathan Altamirano
- Department of Pediatrics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California, United States of America
| | - Assaf Anyamba
- Universities Space Research Association & NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Jamie M. Caldwell
- Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America
| | - Richard Damoah
- Morgan State University & NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, United States of America
| | | | - Bryson Ndenga
- Centre for Global Health Research, Kenya Medical Research Institute, Kisumu, Kenya
| | - A. Desiree LaBeaud
- Department of Pediatrics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California, United States of America
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21
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Anderson R, Bayer PE, Edwards D. Climate change and the need for agricultural adaptation. CURRENT OPINION IN PLANT BIOLOGY 2020; 56:197-202. [PMID: 32057694 DOI: 10.1016/j.pbi.2019.12.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 88] [Impact Index Per Article: 22.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/24/2019] [Revised: 12/14/2019] [Accepted: 12/18/2019] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
Agriculture and food security are predicted to be significantly impacted by climate change, though the impact will vary by region and by crop. Combined with the increasing global population, there is an urgent need for agriculture to adapt to ensure future food security for this growing population. Adaptation strategies include changing land and cropping practices, the development of improved crop varieties and changing food consumption and waste. Recent advances in genomics and agronomy can help alleviate some of the impacts of climate change on food production; however, given the timeframe for crop improvement, significant investment is required to realise these changes. Ultimately, there is a limit as to how far agriculture can adapt to the changing climate, and a political will to reduce the impact of burning of fossil fuels on the global climate is essential for long term food security.
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Affiliation(s)
- Robyn Anderson
- School of Biological Sciences and Institute of Agriculture, The University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
| | - Philipp E Bayer
- School of Biological Sciences and Institute of Agriculture, The University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
| | - David Edwards
- School of Biological Sciences and Institute of Agriculture, The University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia, Australia.
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22
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Grossi-Soyster EN, LaBeaud AD. Rift Valley Fever: Important Considerations for Risk Mitigation and Future Outbreaks. Trop Med Infect Dis 2020; 5:tropicalmed5020089. [PMID: 32498264 PMCID: PMC7345646 DOI: 10.3390/tropicalmed5020089] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/01/2020] [Revised: 05/22/2020] [Accepted: 05/28/2020] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is a zoonotic phlebovirus of the Phenuiviridae family with great opportunity for emergence in previously unaffected regions, despite its current geographical limits. Outbreaks of RVFV often infect humans or domesticated animals, such as livestock, concurrently and occur sporadically, ranging from localized outbreaks in villages to multi-country events that spread rapidly. The true burden of Rift Valley fever (RVF) is not well defined due to underreporting, misdiagnosis caused by the broad spectrum of disease presentation, and minimal access for rapid and accurate laboratory confirmation. Severe symptoms may include hemorrhagic fever, loss of vision, psychological impairment or disturbances, and organ failure. Those living in endemic areas and travelers should be aware of the potential for exposure to ongoing outbreaks or interepidemic transmission, and engage in behaviors to minimize exposure risks, as vaccinations in humans are currently unavailable and animal vaccinations are not used routinely or ubiquitously. The lack of vaccines approved for use in humans is concerning, as RVFV has proven to be highly pathogenic in naïve populations, causing severe disease in a large percent of confirmed cases, which could have considerable impact on human health.
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23
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Ward HM, Qualls WA. Integrating Vector and Nuisance Mosquito Control for Severe Weather Response. JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN MOSQUITO CONTROL ASSOCIATION 2020; 36:41-48. [PMID: 33647141 DOI: 10.2987/19-6879.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Ideally, all mosquito control programs would have public health-driven and nuisance population-focused components in their mosquito control plan. However, due to resource limitations many mosquito control programs focus attention on one specific component of integrated mosquito control, i.e., adulticiding only. Programs run by public health departments with limited resources are frequently heavily focused on vector control, targeting a few mosquito species that are locally medically relevant in human and animal disease cycles. Focusing their mosquito management on these specific vector species can result in inefficiencies after hurricanes and severe flooding events that create a need for nuisance mosquito control. Floodwater nuisance species that emerge are not routinely a public health threat, but hinder operations related to response efforts and can negatively affect the lives of people in areas recovering from these disaster events. Staff, training, equipment, and facilities, when aimed at public health vector control, may not have the experience, knowledge, or tools to effectively respond to postdisaster, floodwater mosquito populations. As such, all mosquito management programs should have plans in place to handle not only known vectors of public health concern in response to mosquito-borne disease, but also to manage floodwater mosquito populations after natural disasters to safeguard public health and facilitate recovery operations. The current paper discusses the severe weather events in South Texas in 2018 and the resulting integrated nuisance floodwater mosquito control guidance developed by the Texas Department of State Health Services.
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Affiliation(s)
- Heather M Ward
- Zoonosis Control Branch, Texas Department of State Health Services, Houston, TX 77023
| | - Whitney A Qualls
- Zoonosis Control Branch, Texas Department of State Health Services, Houston, TX 77023
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Lee EK, Zhang WJ, Zhang X, Adler PR, Lin S, Feingold BJ, Khwaja HA, Romeiko XX. Projecting life-cycle environmental impacts of corn production in the U.S. Midwest under future climate scenarios using a machine learning approach. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 714:136697. [PMID: 31982745 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.136697] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/09/2019] [Revised: 11/19/2019] [Accepted: 01/13/2020] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is exacerbating environmental pollution from crop production. Spatially and temporally explicit estimates of life-cycle environmental impacts are therefore needed for suggesting location and time relevant environmental mitigations strategies. Emission factors and process-based mechanism models are popular approaches used to estimate life-cycle environmental impacts. However, emission factors are often incapable of describing spatial and temporal heterogeneity of agricultural emissions, whereas process-based mechanistic models, capable of capturing the heterogeneity, tend to be very complicated and time-consuming. Efficient prediction of life-cycle environmental impacts from agricultural production is lacking. This study develops a rapid predictive model to quantify life-cycle global warming (GW) and eutrophication (EU) impacts of corn production using a novel machine learning approach. We used the boosted regression tree (BRT) model to estimate future life-cycle environmental impacts of corn production in U.S. Midwest counties under four emissions scenarios for years 2022-2100. Results from BRT models indicate that the cross-validation (R2) for predicting life cycle GW and EU impacts ranged from 0.78 to 0.82, respectively. Furthermore, results show that future life-cycle GW and EU impacts of corn production will increase in magnitude under all four emissions scenarios, with the highest environmental impacts shown under the high-emissions scenario. Moreover, this study found that changes in precipitation and temperature played a significant role in influencing the spatial heterogeneity in all life-cycle impacts across Midwest counties. The BRT model results indicate that machine learning can be a useful tool for predicting spatially and temporally explicit future life-cycle environmental impacts associated with corn production under different climate scenarios.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eun Kyung Lee
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, One University Place, Rensselaer, NY 12144, USA
| | - Wang-Jian Zhang
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, One University Place, Rensselaer, NY 12144, USA
| | - Xuesong Zhang
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 5825 University Research Court, College Park, MD 20740, USA
| | - Paul R Adler
- Pasture Systems and Watershed Management Research Unit, USDA-ARS, Curtin Road, University Park, PA 16807, USA
| | - Shao Lin
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, One University Place, Rensselaer, NY 12144, USA; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University at Albany, State University of New York, One University Place, Rensselaer, NY 12144, USA
| | - Beth J Feingold
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, One University Place, Rensselaer, NY 12144, USA
| | - Haider A Khwaja
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, One University Place, Rensselaer, NY 12144, USA; Wadsworth Center, New York State Department of Health, Empire State Plaza, Albany, NY 12201, USA
| | - Xiaobo X Romeiko
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, One University Place, Rensselaer, NY 12144, USA.
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Uelmen JA, Brokopp C, Patz J. A 15 Year Evaluation of West Nile Virus in Wisconsin: Effects on Wildlife and Human Health. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2020; 17:E1767. [PMID: 32182764 PMCID: PMC7084944 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17051767] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/07/2020] [Revised: 03/01/2020] [Accepted: 03/05/2020] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
West Nile virus (WNV) is the most important and widespread mosquito-borne virus in the United States (U.S.). WNV has the ability to spread rapidly and effectively, infecting more than 320 bird and mammalian species. An examination of environmental conditions and the health of keystone species may help predict the susceptibility of various habitats to WNV and reveal key risk factors, annual trends, and vulnerable regions. Since 2002, WNV outbreaks in Wisconsin varied by species, place, and time, significantly affected by unique climatic, environmental, and geographical factors. During a 15 year period, WNV was detected in 71 of 72 counties, resulting in 239 human and 1397 wildlife cases. Controlling for population and sampling efforts in Wisconsin, rates of WNV are highest in the western and northwestern rural regions of the state. WNV incidence rates were highest in counties with low human population densities, predominantly wetland, and at elevations greater than 1000 feet. Resources for surveillance, prevention, and detection of WNV were lowest in rural counties, likely resulting in underestimation of cases. Overall, increasing mean temperature and decreasing precipitation showed positive influence on WNV transmission in Wisconsin. This study incorporates the first statewide assessment of WNV in Wisconsin.
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Affiliation(s)
- Johnny A. Uelmen
- Department of Population Health Sciences, University of Wisconsin, 610 Walnut Street, 707 WARF Building, Madison, WI 53726, USA; (C.B.); (J.P.)
- Department of Pathobiology, University of Illinois, 2001 South Lincoln Avenue, Urbana, IL 61802, USA
| | - Charles Brokopp
- Department of Population Health Sciences, University of Wisconsin, 610 Walnut Street, 707 WARF Building, Madison, WI 53726, USA; (C.B.); (J.P.)
- Wisconsin State Laboratory of Hygiene, 2601 Agriculture Drive, P.O. Box 7904, Madison, WI 53718, USA
| | - Jonathan Patz
- Department of Population Health Sciences, University of Wisconsin, 610 Walnut Street, 707 WARF Building, Madison, WI 53726, USA; (C.B.); (J.P.)
- Nelson Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Wisconsin, 258 Enzyme Institute, 1710 University Avenue, Madison, WI 53726, USA
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26
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Comparing Machine Learning Approaches for Predicting Spatially Explicit Life Cycle Global Warming and Eutrophication Impacts from Corn Production. SUSTAINABILITY 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/su12041481] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Agriculture ranks as one of the top contributors to global warming and nutrient pollution. Quantifying life cycle environmental impacts from agricultural production serves as a scientific foundation for forming effective remediation strategies. However, methods capable of accurately and efficiently calculating spatially explicit life cycle global warming (GW) and eutrophication (EU) impacts at the county scale over a geographic region are lacking. The objective of this study was to determine the most efficient and accurate model for estimating spatially explicit life cycle GW and EU impacts at the county scale, with corn production in the U.S.’s Midwest region as a case study. This study compared the predictive accuracies and efficiencies of five distinct supervised machine learning (ML) algorithms, testing various sample sizes and feature selections. The results indicated that the gradient boosting regression tree model built with approximately 4000 records of monthly weather features yielded the highest predictive accuracy with cross-validation (CV) values of 0.8 for the life cycle GW impacts. The gradient boosting regression tree model built with nearly 6000 records of monthly weather features showed the highest predictive accuracy with CV values of 0.87 for the life cycle EU impacts based on all modeling scenarios. Moreover, predictive accuracy was improved at the cost of simulation time. The gradient boosting regression tree model required the longest training time. ML algorithms demonstrated to be one million times faster than the traditional process-based model with high predictive accuracy. This indicates that ML can serve as an alternative surrogate of process-based models to estimate life-cycle environmental impacts, capturing large geographic areas and timeframes.
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27
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Cheng J, Bambrick H, Yakob L, Devine G, Frentiu FD, Toan DTT, Thai PQ, Xu Z, Hu W. Heatwaves and dengue outbreaks in Hanoi, Vietnam: New evidence on early warning. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2020; 14:e0007997. [PMID: 31961869 PMCID: PMC6994101 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0007997] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/01/2019] [Revised: 01/31/2020] [Accepted: 12/16/2019] [Indexed: 01/15/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Many studies have shown associations between rising temperatures, El Niño events and dengue incidence, but the effect of sustained periods of extreme high temperatures (i.e., heatwaves) on dengue outbreaks has not yet been investigated. This study aimed to compare the short-term temperature-dengue associations during different dengue outbreak periods, estimate the dengue cases attributable to temperature, and ascertain if there was an association between heatwaves and dengue outbreaks in Hanoi, Vietnam. Methodology/Principal findings Dengue outbreaks were assigned to one of three categories (small, medium and large) based on the 50th, 75th, and 90th percentiles of distribution of weekly dengue cases during 2008–2016. Using a generalised linear regression model with a negative binomial link that controlled for temporal trends, temperature variation, rainfall and population size over time, we examined and compared associations between weekly average temperature and weekly dengue incidence for different outbreak categories. The same model using weeks with or without heatwaves as binary variables was applied to examine the potential effects of extreme heatwaves, defined as seven or more days with temperatures above the 95th percentile of daily temperature distribution during the study period. This study included 55,801 dengue cases, with an average of 119 (range: 0 to 1454) cases per week. The exposure-response relationship between temperature and dengue risk was non-linear and differed with dengue category. After considering the delayed effects of temperature (one week lag), we estimated that 4.6%, 11.6%, and 21.9% of incident cases during small, medium, and large outbreaks were attributable to temperature. We found evidence of an association between heatwaves and dengue outbreaks, with longer delayed effects on large outbreaks (around 14 weeks later) than small and medium outbreaks (4 to 9 weeks later). Compared with non-heatwave years, dengue outbreaks (i.e., small, moderate and large outbreaks combined) in heatwave years had higher weekly number of dengue cases (p<0.05). Findings were robust under different sensitivity analyses. Conclusions The short-term association between temperature and dengue risk varied by the level of outbreaks and temperature seems more likely affect large outbreaks. Moreover, heatwaves may delay the timing and increase the magnitude of dengue outbreaks. Dengue fever is one of the most common mosquito-borne viral diseases. Weather extremes such as El Niño event and extreme hot summer can affect dengue incidence rate and dengue outbreaks. More frequent, more intensive and longer lasting heatwaves in the 21st century is anticipated because of global warming, making it necessary to investigate the association between heatwaves and dengue outbreaks. In this study, we estimated 4.6%, 11.6%, and 21.9% of incident dengue cases during small, medium, and large outbreaks attributable to temperature in Hanoi, Vietnam. We also found evidence of an association between heatwaves and dengue outbreaks, with longer delayed effects on large outbreaks than small and medium outbreaks. Compared with non-heatwave years, dengue outbreaks in heatwave years had higher number of dengue cases. Heatwave weather may represent an emerging risk factor or predicator of dengue outbreaks in tropical regions. Future dengue prediction models incorporating heatwaves may help increase the accuracy of predictability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jian Cheng
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Hilary Bambrick
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Laith Yakob
- Department of Disease Control, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Gregor Devine
- Mosquito Control Laboratory, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Francesca D. Frentiu
- School of Biomedical Sciences, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Do Thi Thanh Toan
- Institute of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, Hanoi Medical University, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Pham Quang Thai
- Institute of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, Hanoi Medical University, Hanoi, Vietnam
- Communicable Disease Control Department, National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Zhiwei Xu
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Wenbiao Hu
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
- * E-mail:
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Tall JA, Gatton ML. Flooding and Arboviral Disease: Predicting Ross River Virus Disease Outbreaks Across Inland Regions of South-Eastern Australia. JOURNAL OF MEDICAL ENTOMOLOGY 2020; 57:241-251. [PMID: 31310648 DOI: 10.1093/jme/tjz120] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/02/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Flood frequency is expected to increase across the globe with climate change. Understanding the relationship between flooding and arboviral disease can reduce disease risk and associated costs. South-eastern Australia is dominated by the flood-prone Murray-Darling River system where the incidence of Australia's most common arboviral disease, Ross River virus (RRV), is high. This study aimed to determine the relationship between riverine flooding and RRV disease outbreaks in inland south-eastern Australia, specifically New South Wales (NSW). Each study month from 1991 to 2013, for each of 37 local government areas (LGAs) was assigned 'outbreak/non-outbreak' status based on long-term trimmed-average age-standardized RRV notification rates and 'flood/non-flood' status based on riverine overflow. LGAs were grouped into eight climate zones with the relationship between flood and RRV outbreak modeled using generalized estimating equations. Modeling adjusted for rainfall in the previous 1-3 mo. Spring-summer flooding increased the odds of summer RRV outbreaks in three climate zones before and after adjusting for rainfall 1, 2, and 3 mo prior to the outbreak. Flooding at any time of the year was not predictive of RRV outbreaks in the remaining five climate zones. Predicting RRV disease outbreaks with flood events can assist with more targeted mosquito spraying programs, thereby reducing disease transmission and mosquito resistance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Julie A Tall
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Faculty of Health, Queensland University of Technology, O Block, Kelvin Grove, Queensland, Australia
| | - Michelle L Gatton
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Faculty of Health, Queensland University of Technology, O Block, Kelvin Grove, Queensland, Australia
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Campbell LP, Reuman DC, Lutomiah J, Peterson AT, Linthicum KJ, Britch SC, Anyamba A, Sang R. Predicting Abundances of Aedes mcintoshi, a primary Rift Valley fever virus mosquito vector. PLoS One 2019; 14:e0226617. [PMID: 31846495 PMCID: PMC6917266 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0226617] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/24/2019] [Accepted: 12/02/2019] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is a mosquito-borne zoonotic arbovirus with important livestock and human health, and economic consequences across Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. Climate and vegetation monitoring guide RVFV forecasting models and early warning systems; however, these approaches make monthly predictions and a need exists to predict primary vector abundances at finer temporal scales. In Kenya, an important primary RVFV vector is the mosquito Aedes mcintoshi. We used a zero-inflated negative binomial regression and multimodel averaging approach with georeferenced Ae. mcintoshi mosquito counts and remotely sensed climate and topographic variables to predict where and when abundances would be high in Kenya and western Somalia. The data supported a positive effect on abundance of minimum wetness index values within 500 m of a sampling site, cumulative precipitation values 0 to 14 days prior to sampling, and elevated land surface temperature values ~3 weeks prior to sampling. The probability of structural zero counts of mosquitoes increased as percentage clay in the soil decreased. Weekly retrospective predictions for unsampled locations across the study area between 1 September and 25 January from 2002 to 2016 predicted high abundances prior to RVFV outbreaks in multiple foci during the 2006-2007 epizootic, except for two districts in Kenya. Additionally, model predictions supported the possibility of high Ae. mcintoshi abundances in Somalia, independent of Kenya. Model-predicted abundances were low during the 2015-2016 period when documented outbreaks did not occur, although several surveillance systems issued warnings. Model predictions prior to the 2018 RVFV outbreak indicated elevated abundances in Wajir County, Kenya, along the border with Somalia, but RVFV activity occurred west of the focus of predicted high Ae. mcintoshi abundances.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lindsay P. Campbell
- Florida Medical Entomology Laboratory, IFAS, University of Florida, Vero Beach, Florida, United States of America
- Department of Entomology and Nematology, IFAS, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Daniel C. Reuman
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas, United States of America
- Kansas Biological Survey, University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas, United States of America
- Laboratory of Populations, Rockefeller University, New York, New York, United States of America
| | - Joel Lutomiah
- Kenya Medical Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya
- United States Army Medical Research Directorate – Africa, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - A. Townsend Peterson
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas, United States of America
- Biodiversity Institute, University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas, United States of America
| | - Kenneth J. Linthicum
- United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service Center for Medical, Agricultural, and Veterinary Entomology, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
| | - Seth C. Britch
- United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service Center for Medical, Agricultural, and Veterinary Entomology, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
| | - Assaf Anyamba
- Universities Space Research Association, Columbia, Maryland, United States of America
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, Greenbelt, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Rosemary Sang
- Kenya Medical Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya
- United States Army Medical Research Directorate – Africa, Nairobi, Kenya
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Ciota AT, Keyel AC. The Role of Temperature in Transmission of Zoonotic Arboviruses. Viruses 2019; 11:E1013. [PMID: 31683823 PMCID: PMC6893470 DOI: 10.3390/v11111013] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/10/2019] [Revised: 10/29/2019] [Accepted: 10/30/2019] [Indexed: 12/31/2022] Open
Abstract
We reviewed the literature on the role of temperature in transmission of zoonotic arboviruses. Vector competence is affected by both direct and indirect effects of temperature, and generally increases with increasing temperature, but results may vary by vector species, population, and viral strain. Temperature additionally has a significant influence on life history traits of vectors at both immature and adult life stages, and for important behaviors such as blood-feeding and mating. Similar to vector competence, temperature effects on life history traits can vary by species and population. Vector, host, and viral distributions are all affected by temperature, and are generally expected to change with increased temperatures predicted under climate change. Arboviruses are generally expected to shift poleward and to higher elevations under climate change, yet significant variability on fine geographic scales is likely. Temperature effects are generally unimodal, with increases in abundance up to an optimum, and then decreases at high temperatures. Improved vector distribution information could facilitate future distribution modeling. A wide variety of approaches have been used to model viral distributions, although most research has focused on the West Nile virus. Direct temperature effects are frequently observed, as are indirect effects, such as through droughts, where temperature interacts with rainfall. Thermal biology approaches hold much promise for syntheses across viruses, vectors, and hosts, yet future studies must consider the specificity of interactions and the dynamic nature of evolving biological systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alexander T Ciota
- Wadsworth Center, New York State Department of Health, Albany, NY 12201, USA.
- Department of Biomedical Sciences, State University of New York at Albany School of Public Health, Rensselaer, NY 12144, USA.
| | - Alexander C Keyel
- Wadsworth Center, New York State Department of Health, Albany, NY 12201, USA.
- Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, Albany, NY 12222, USA.
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31
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Satellite Remote Sensing of Precipitation and the Terrestrial Water Cycle in a Changing Climate. REMOTE SENSING 2019. [DOI: 10.3390/rs11192301] [Citation(s) in RCA: 48] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
The water cycle is the most essential supporting physical mechanism ensuring the existence of life on Earth. Its components encompass the atmosphere, land, and oceans. The cycle is composed of evaporation, evapotranspiration, sublimation, water vapor transport, condensation, precipitation, runoff, infiltration and percolation, groundwater flow, and plant uptake. For a correct closure of the global water cycle, observations are needed of all these processes with a global perspective. In particular, precipitation requires continuous monitoring, as it is the most important component of the cycle, especially under changing climatic conditions. Passive and active sensors on board meteorological and environmental satellites now make reasonably complete data available that allow better measurements of precipitation to be made from space, in order to improve our understanding of the cycle’s acceleration/deceleration under current and projected climate conditions. The article aims to draw an up-to-date picture of the current status of observations of precipitation from space, with an outlook to the near future of the satellite constellation, modeling applications, and water resource management.
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Sulewska H, Ratajczak K, Panasiewicz K, Kalaji HM. Can pyraclostrobin and epoxiconazole protect conventional and stay-green maize varieties grown under drought stress? PLoS One 2019; 14:e0221116. [PMID: 31430301 PMCID: PMC6701797 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0221116] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/28/2019] [Accepted: 07/30/2019] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Risks associated with drought are increasing and are a global problem. Therefore, there is a need for new solutions for the safe production of food, while maintaining respect for the environment. Fungicides are designed to protect maize plants against disease, but some of the active substances used in preparations can also promote plant growth, which is known as the 'physiological effect'. However, there is a paucity of information as to how some of the 'new generation' fungicides act in stimulating grain yield in plants under abiotic stress, especially drought. Therefore, the effects of these products on conventional and stay-green maize varieties need to be better understood in order to reduce losses caused by droughts and to maximize production. In this study, the effect of a pyraclostrobin + epoxiconazole fungicide preparation on maize plants was evaluated at different times after spraying; during induced drought conditions and again during the regeneration process of the plants. The preparation was applied to 'KWS 1325' (conventional) and 'Ambrosini' (stay-green) varieties at the recommended dose, three times in greenhouse conditions. Plant gas exchange, plant water use efficiency, chlorophyll fluorescence and fresh and dry plant biomass were evaluated. The pyraclostrobin + epoxiconazole preparation increased stomatal conductance and photosynthesis intensity in the 'Ambrosini' plants. When maintained under a high light intensity, the variety used increased efficiency and exchanged excessive energy in the form of thermal energy to protect the maize leaf from light-induced damage under drought stress. Plant photosynthetic efficiency (ETR and Yield parameters) during drought stress and after regeneration was significantly higher in treated plants than in the controls. Thus, the beneficial effects on the physiology of the maize varieties grown under drought stress from the fungicide application are significant for farmers and growers.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hanna Sulewska
- Department of Agronomy, Faculty of Agronomy and Bioengineering, Poznan University of Life Sciences, Poznan, Poland
| | - Karolina Ratajczak
- Department of Agronomy, Faculty of Agronomy and Bioengineering, Poznan University of Life Sciences, Poznan, Poland
| | - Katarzyna Panasiewicz
- Department of Agronomy, Faculty of Agronomy and Bioengineering, Poznan University of Life Sciences, Poznan, Poland
| | - Hazem M. Kalaji
- Department of Plant Physiology, Faculty of Agriculture and Biology, Warsaw University of Life Sciences WULS-SGGW, Warsaw, Poland
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Global Disease Outbreaks Associated with the 2015-2016 El Niño Event. Sci Rep 2019; 9:1930. [PMID: 30760757 PMCID: PMC6374399 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-38034-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 74] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/08/2018] [Accepted: 12/18/2018] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Interannual climate variability patterns associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon result in climate and environmental anomaly conditions in specific regions worldwide that directly favor outbreaks and/or amplification of variety of diseases of public health concern including chikungunya, hantavirus, Rift Valley fever, cholera, plague, and Zika. We analyzed patterns of some disease outbreaks during the strong 2015–2016 El Niño event in relation to climate anomalies derived from satellite measurements. Disease outbreaks in multiple El Niño-connected regions worldwide (including Southeast Asia, Tanzania, western US, and Brazil) followed shifts in rainfall, temperature, and vegetation in which both drought and flooding occurred in excess (14–81% precipitation departures from normal). These shifts favored ecological conditions appropriate for pathogens and their vectors to emerge and propagate clusters of diseases activity in these regions. Our analysis indicates that intensity of disease activity in some ENSO-teleconnected regions were approximately 2.5–28% higher during years with El Niño events than those without. Plague in Colorado and New Mexico as well as cholera in Tanzania were significantly associated with above normal rainfall (p < 0.05); while dengue in Brazil and southeast Asia were significantly associated with above normal land surface temperature (p < 0.05). Routine and ongoing global satellite monitoring of key climate variable anomalies calibrated to specific regions could identify regions at risk for emergence and propagation of disease vectors. Such information can provide sufficient lead-time for outbreak prevention and potentially reduce the burden and spread of ecologically coupled diseases.
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Coumou D, Di Capua G, Vavrus S, Wang L, Wang S. The influence of Arctic amplification on mid-latitude summer circulation. Nat Commun 2018; 9:2959. [PMID: 30127423 PMCID: PMC6102303 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-05256-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 51] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/26/2017] [Accepted: 06/20/2018] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
Accelerated warming in the Arctic, as compared to the rest of the globe, might have profound impacts on mid-latitude weather. Most studies analyzing Arctic links to mid-latitude weather focused on winter, yet recent summers have seen strong reductions in sea-ice extent and snow cover, a weakened equator-to-pole thermal gradient and associated weakening of the mid-latitude circulation. We review the scientific evidence behind three leading hypotheses on the influence of Arctic changes on mid-latitude summer weather: Weakened storm tracks, shifted jet streams, and amplified quasi-stationary waves. We show that interactions between Arctic teleconnections and other remote and regional feedback processes could lead to more persistent hot-dry extremes in the mid-latitudes. The exact nature of these non-linear interactions is not well quantified but they provide potential high-impact risks for society.
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Affiliation(s)
- D Coumou
- Department of Water & Climate Risk, Institute for Environmental Studies, VU Amsterdam, Amsterdam, 1087HV, Netherlands.
- Department of Earth System Analyses, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, 14473, Germany.
| | - G Di Capua
- Department of Water & Climate Risk, Institute for Environmental Studies, VU Amsterdam, Amsterdam, 1087HV, Netherlands
- Department of Earth System Analyses, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, 14473, Germany
| | - S Vavrus
- Nelson Institute Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, 53706, WI, USA
| | - L Wang
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, 02138, MA, USA
| | - S Wang
- Department of Plants, Soils and Climate, Utah State University, Logan, 84322, UT, USA
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Alencar J, Mello CFD, Morone F, Albuquerque HG, Serra-Freire NM, Gleiser RM, Silva SOF, Guimarães AÉ. Distribution of Haemagogus and Sabethes Species in Relation to Forest Cover and Climatic Factors in the Chapada Dos Guimarães National Park, State of Mato Grosso, Brazil. JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN MOSQUITO CONTROL ASSOCIATION 2018; 34:85-92. [PMID: 31442164 DOI: 10.2987/18-6739.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Members of the genera Haemagogus and Sabethes are the most important biological vectors of the wild yellow fever virus (WYF) in the forested areas of the Americas. The ecologies of Haemagogus janthinomys, Hg. leucocelaenus, Sabethes chloropterus, and Sa. glaucodaemon were studied in a forest of the Chapada dos Guimarães National Park, state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, to evaluate the influence of climatic factors (temperature and relative humidity [RH]) on their abundance. We also examined the association of climate with landscape structure on species distribution patterns throughout the seasons of the year. Multiple stepwise regressions showed that RH was most likely to influence the density of mosquito populations. A multidimensional scaling (MDS) was used to evaluate the effects of forest cover on the composition of mosquito populations at different radii (100-, 250-, and 1,000-m-radius buffer areas). The MDS provided 2 dimensions with values that indicated a higher similarity in the composition of culicid populations between sites 1 and 3, while site 2 was separate from the others in the ordination space. Site 2 had a much higher forest cover ratio at 100-m radius compared with sites 1 and 3. We found a possible relationship between the forest cover and the composition of the mosquito populations only in the 100-m radius. These results enabled us to infer that RH directly favored the activity of mosquito populations and that the forest cover located closest to the sampling site may influence the species composition. Since mosquito abundance was higher in the sites with lower local forest cover, forest fragmentation may be a key factor on the presence of WYF vector.
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Niven DJ, Afra K, Iftinca M, Tellier R, Fonseca K, Kramer A, Safronetz D, Holloway K, Drebot M, Johnson AS. Fatal Infection with Murray Valley Encephalitis Virus Imported from Australia to Canada, 2011. Emerg Infect Dis 2018; 23:280-283. [PMID: 28098530 PMCID: PMC5324805 DOI: 10.3201/eid2302.161161] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Murray Valley encephalitis virus (MVEV), a flavivirus belonging to the Japanese encephalitis serogroup, can cause severe clinical manifestations in humans. We report a fatal case of MVEV infection in a young woman who returned from Australia to Canada. The differential diagnosis for travel-associated encephalitis should include MVEV, particularly during outbreak years.
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Abstract
The evolutionary transformation from a blood-feeding to an obligate nonbiting lifestyle is occurring uniquely within the genetic background of a single species of mosquito, Wyeomyia smithii, as a product of selection in nature. Associated genetic changes in metabolic pathways indicate a high anticipatory metabolic investment prior to consuming blood, presumably balanced by the reproductive benefits from an imminent blood meal. This evolutionary transformation provides a starting point for determining pivotal upstream genetic changes between biters and nonbiters and for identifying universal nonbiting genes or pathways in mosquitoes. If there is no bite, there is no transmission of pathogens; hence W. smithii offers a different approach to investigate control of blood-feeding vectors of human diseases. The spread of blood-borne pathogens by mosquitoes relies on their taking a blood meal; if there is no bite, there is no disease transmission. Although many species of mosquitoes never take a blood meal, identifying genes that distinguish blood feeding from obligate nonbiting is hampered by the fact that these different lifestyles occur in separate, genetically incompatible species. There is, however, one unique extant species with populations that share a common genetic background but blood feed in one region and are obligate nonbiters in the rest of their range: Wyeomyia smithii. Contemporary blood-feeding and obligate nonbiting populations represent end points of divergence between fully interfertile southern and northern populations. This divergence has undoubtedly resulted in genetic changes that are unrelated to blood feeding, and the challenge is to winnow out the unrelated genetic factors to identify those related specifically to the evolutionary transition from blood feeding to obligate nonbiting. Herein, we determine differential gene expression resulting from directional selection on blood feeding within a polymorphic population to isolate genetic differences between blood feeding and obligate nonbiting. We show that the evolution of nonbiting has resulted in a greatly reduced metabolic investment compared with biting populations, a greater reliance on opportunistic metabolic pathways, and greater reliance on visual rather than olfactory sensory input. W. smithii provides a unique starting point to determine if there are universal nonbiting genes in mosquitoes that could be manipulated as a means to control vector-borne disease.
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Bardosh KL, Ryan SJ, Ebi K, Welburn S, Singer B. Addressing vulnerability, building resilience: community-based adaptation to vector-borne diseases in the context of global change. Infect Dis Poverty 2017; 6:166. [PMID: 29228986 PMCID: PMC5725972 DOI: 10.1186/s40249-017-0375-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 38] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/31/2017] [Accepted: 11/15/2017] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The threat of a rapidly changing planet – of coupled social, environmental and climatic change – pose new conceptual and practical challenges in responding to vector-borne diseases. These include non-linear and uncertain spatial-temporal change dynamics associated with climate, animals, land, water, food, settlement, conflict, ecology and human socio-cultural, economic and political-institutional systems. To date, research efforts have been dominated by disease modeling, which has provided limited practical advice to policymakers and practitioners in developing policies and programmes on the ground. Main body In this paper, we provide an alternative biosocial perspective grounded in social science insights, drawing upon concepts of vulnerability, resilience, participation and community-based adaptation. Our analysis was informed by a realist review (provided in the Additional file 2) focused on seven major climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases: malaria, schistosomiasis, dengue, leishmaniasis, sleeping sickness, chagas disease, and rift valley fever. Here, we situate our analysis of existing community-based interventions within the context of global change processes and the wider social science literature. We identify and discuss best practices and conceptual principles that should guide future community-based efforts to mitigate human vulnerability to vector-borne diseases. We argue that more focused attention and investments are needed in meaningful public participation, appropriate technologies, the strengthening of health systems, sustainable development, wider institutional changes and attention to the social determinants of health, including the drivers of co-infection. Conclusion In order to respond effectively to uncertain future scenarios for vector-borne disease in a changing world, more attention needs to be given to building resilient and equitable systems in the present. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi: 10.1186/s40249-017-0375-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kevin Louis Bardosh
- Department of Anthropology, University of Florida, Gainesville, USA. .,Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, USA.
| | - Sadie J Ryan
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, USA.,Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, USA
| | - Kris Ebi
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, USA
| | - Susan Welburn
- Centre of Infectious Disease, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Burton Singer
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, USA
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Grossi-Soyster EN, Cook EAJ, de Glanville WA, Thomas LF, Krystosik AR, Lee J, Wamae CN, Kariuki S, Fèvre EM, LaBeaud AD. Serological and spatial analysis of alphavirus and flavivirus prevalence and risk factors in a rural community in western Kenya. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2017; 11:e0005998. [PMID: 29040262 PMCID: PMC5659799 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005998] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/28/2017] [Revised: 10/27/2017] [Accepted: 09/27/2017] [Indexed: 01/29/2023] Open
Abstract
Alphaviruses, such as chikungunya virus, and flaviviruses, such as dengue virus, are (re)-emerging arboviruses that are endemic in tropical environments. In Africa, arbovirus infections are often undiagnosed and unreported, with febrile illnesses often assumed to be malaria. This cross-sectional study aimed to characterize the seroprevalence of alphaviruses and flaviviruses among children (ages 5-14, n = 250) and adults (ages 15 ≥ 75, n = 250) in western Kenya. Risk factors for seropositivity were explored using Lasso regression. Overall, 67% of participants showed alphavirus seropositivity (CI95 63%-70%), and 1.6% of participants showed flavivirus seropositivity (CI95 0.7%-3%). Children aged 10-14 were more likely to be seropositive to an alphavirus than adults (p < 0.001), suggesting a recent transmission period. Alphavirus and flavivirus seropositivity was detected in the youngest participants (age 5-9), providing evidence of inter-epidemic transmission. Demographic variables that were significantly different amongst those with previous infection versus those without infection included age, education level, and occupation. Behavioral and environmental variables significantly different amongst those in with previous infection to those without infection included taking animals for grazing, fishing, and recent village flooding. Experience of recent fever was also found to be a significant indicator of infection (p = 0.027). These results confirm alphavirus and flavivirus exposure in western Kenya, while illustrating significantly higher alphavirus transmission compared to previous studies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elysse N. Grossi-Soyster
- Departments of Pediatrics, Infectious Disease Division, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California, United States of America
| | - Elizabeth A. J. Cook
- Zoonotic and Emerging Diseases Group, International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya
- Centre for Immunity, Infection and Evolution, Institute for Immunology and Infection Research, School of Biological Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Ashworth Laboratories, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - William A. de Glanville
- Zoonotic and Emerging Diseases Group, International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya
- Centre for Immunity, Infection and Evolution, Institute for Immunology and Infection Research, School of Biological Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Ashworth Laboratories, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Lian F. Thomas
- Zoonotic and Emerging Diseases Group, International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya
- Centre for Immunity, Infection and Evolution, Institute for Immunology and Infection Research, School of Biological Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Ashworth Laboratories, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | - Amy R. Krystosik
- Departments of Pediatrics, Infectious Disease Division, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California, United States of America
| | - Justin Lee
- Quantitative Sciences Unit, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California, United States of America
| | - C. Njeri Wamae
- Department of Microbiology, School of Medicine, Mount Kenya University, Thika, Kenya
| | - Samuel Kariuki
- Centre for Microbiology Research, Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI), Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Eric M. Fèvre
- Zoonotic and Emerging Diseases Group, International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya
- Institute of Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool, Leahurst Campus, Neston, United Kingdom
| | - A. Desiree LaBeaud
- Departments of Pediatrics, Infectious Disease Division, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California, United States of America
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Walsh MG, Willem de Smalen A, Mor SM. Wetlands, wild Bovidae species richness and sheep density delineate risk of Rift Valley fever outbreaks in the African continent and Arabian Peninsula. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2017; 11:e0005756. [PMID: 28742814 PMCID: PMC5526521 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005756] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/07/2016] [Accepted: 06/29/2017] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Rift Valley fever (RVF) is an emerging, vector-borne viral zoonosis that has significantly impacted public health, livestock health and production, and food security over the last three decades across large regions of the African continent and the Arabian Peninsula. The potential for expansion of RVF outbreaks within and beyond the range of previous occurrence is unknown. Despite many large national and international epidemics, the landscape epidemiology of RVF remains obscure, particularly with respect to the ecological roles of wildlife reservoirs and surface water features. The current investigation modeled RVF risk throughout Africa and the Arabian Peninsula as a function of a suite of biotic and abiotic landscape features using machine learning methods. Intermittent wetland, wild Bovidae species richness and sheep density were associated with increased landscape suitability to RVF outbreaks. These results suggest the role of wildlife hosts and distinct hydrogeographic landscapes in RVF virus circulation and subsequent outbreaks may be underestimated. These results await validation by studies employing a deeper, field-based interrogation of potential wildlife hosts within high risk taxa. Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a vector-borne zoonotic disease that imparts a substantial burden to the economy and public health of pastoralist communities across the African continent and Arabian Peninsula. Furthermore, RVF is also an emerging pathogen of growing global concern. Knowledge of the epidemiological and ecological factors that influence the geographic distribution of RVF outbreaks and determine risk for humans and animals is incomplete. The current study examined the distribution of RVF outbreaks from 1998 to 2016 and modeled their occurrence as a function of climate, surface water, land cover, livestock density, wild mammalian species richness, and human migration. The results indicate that wetlands, Bovidae species richness, and sheep density were associated with increased risk of RVF outbreaks. Our findings contribute to improved understanding of the spatial and ecological dynamics of RVF risk with a particular emphasis on the distribution of wetlands and potential wildlife reservoirs in designing RVF surveillance programs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael G. Walsh
- Marie Bashir Institute for Infectious Diseases and Biosecurity, University of Sydney, Westmead, New South Wales, Australia
- Westmead Institute for Medical Research, University of Sydney, Westmead, New South Wales, Australia
- * E-mail:
| | | | - Siobhan M. Mor
- Marie Bashir Institute for Infectious Diseases and Biosecurity, University of Sydney, Westmead, New South Wales, Australia
- School of Veterinary Science, Faculty of Science, University of Sydney, Camperdown, New South Wales, Australia
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Samrat BK, Alok KB. Climate sensitivities and farmland values in Nepal: A spatial panel Ricardian approach. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2017. [DOI: 10.5897/jdae2017.0822] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/31/2022]
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Zscheischler J, Seneviratne SI. Dependence of drivers affects risks associated with compound events. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2017; 3:e1700263. [PMID: 28782010 PMCID: PMC5489265 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1700263] [Citation(s) in RCA: 79] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/25/2017] [Accepted: 05/15/2017] [Indexed: 05/02/2023]
Abstract
Compound climate extremes are receiving increasing attention because of their disproportionate impacts on humans and ecosystems. However, risks assessments generally focus on univariate statistics. We analyze the co-occurrence of hot and dry summers and show that these are correlated, inducing a much higher frequency of concurrent hot and dry summers than what would be assumed from the independent combination of the univariate statistics. Our results demonstrate how the dependence structure between variables affects the occurrence frequency of multivariate extremes. Assessments based on univariate statistics can thus strongly underestimate risks associated with given extremes, if impacts depend on multiple (dependent) variables. We conclude that a multivariate perspective is necessary to appropriately assess changes in climate extremes and their impacts and to design adaptation strategies.
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Abstract
Emerging pathogens of crops threaten food security and are increasingly problematic due to intensive agriculture and high volumes of trade and transport in plants and plant products. The ability to predict pathogen risk to agricultural regions would therefore be valuable. However, predictions are complicated by multi-faceted relationships between crops, their pathogens, and climate change. Climate change is related to industrialization, which has brought not only a rise in greenhouse gas emissions but also an increase in other atmospheric pollutants. Here, we consider the implications of rising levels of reactive nitrogen gases and their manifold interactions with crops and crop diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Helen N Fones
- Biosciences, University of Exeter, Stocker Road, Exeter, EX4 4QD, UK.
| | - Sarah J Gurr
- Biosciences, University of Exeter, Stocker Road, Exeter, EX4 4QD, UK
- Rothamsted Research, North Wyke, Okehampton, EX20 2SB, UK
- Donder's Hon Chair, University of Utrecht, Padualaan 8, 3584 CH, Utrecht, The Netherlands
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Marcondes CB, Contigiani M, Gleiser RM. Emergent and Reemergent Arboviruses in South America and the Caribbean: Why So Many and Why Now? JOURNAL OF MEDICAL ENTOMOLOGY 2017; 54:509-532. [PMID: 28399216 DOI: 10.1093/jme/tjw209] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/07/2016] [Accepted: 10/20/2016] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
Varios arbovirus han emergido y/o reemergido en el Nuevo Mundo en las últimas décadas. Los virus Zika y chikungunya, anteriormente restringidos a África y quizás Asia, invadieron el continente, causando gran preocupación; además siguen ocurriendo brotes causados por el virus dengue en casi todos los países, con millones de casos por año. El virus West Nile invadió rápidamente América del Norte, y ya se han encontrado casos en América Central y del Sur. Otros arbovirus, como Mayaro y el virus de la encefalitis equina del este han aumentado su actividad y se han encontrado en nuevas regiones. Se han documentado cambios en la patogenicidad de algunos virus que conducen a enfermedades inesperadas. Una fauna diversa de mosquitos, cambios climáticos y en la vegetación, aumento de los viajes, y urbanizaciones no planificadas que generan condiciones adecuadas para la proliferación de Aedes aegypti (L.), Culex quinquefasciatus Say y otros mosquitos vectores, se han combinado para influir fuertemente en los cambios en la distribución y la incidencia de varios arbovirus. Se enfatiza la necesidad de realizar estudios exhaustivos de la fauna de mosquitos y modificaciones de las condiciones ambientales, sobre todo en las zonas urbanas fuertemente influenciadas por factores sociales, políticos y económicos.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carlos Brisola Marcondes
- Departamento de Microbiologia, Imunologia e Parasitologia, Centro de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Florianópolis, Santa Catarina 88040-900, Brazil
| | - Marta Contigiani
- Emeritus Professor, Instituto de Virologia "Dr. J. M. Vanella", Enfermera Gordillo Gomez s/n, Ciudad Universitaria, National University of Córdoba, Córdoba, Argentina
| | - Raquel Miranda Gleiser
- Centro de Relevamiento y Evaluación de Recursos Agrícolas y Naturales (CREAN) - Instituto Multidisciplinario de Biología Vegetal (IMBIV), Universidad Nacional de Córdoba (UNC) and Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), Córdoba, Argentina
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45
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Niven DJ, Afra K, Iftinca M, Tellier R, Fonseca K, Kramer A, Safronetz D, Holloway K, Drebot M, Johnson AS. Fatal Infection with Murray Valley Encephalitis Virus Imported from Australia to Canada, 2011. Emerg Infect Dis 2017. [DOI: 10.3201/eid2302.161611] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
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46
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Cohen JM, Venesky MD, Sauer EL, Civitello DJ, McMahon TA, Roznik EA, Rohr JR. The thermal mismatch hypothesis explains host susceptibility to an emerging infectious disease. Ecol Lett 2017; 20:184-193. [DOI: 10.1111/ele.12720] [Citation(s) in RCA: 119] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/05/2016] [Revised: 10/06/2016] [Accepted: 11/17/2016] [Indexed: 01/15/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Jeremy M. Cohen
- Department of Integrative Biology University of South Florida Tampa FL USA
| | | | - Erin L. Sauer
- Department of Integrative Biology University of South Florida Tampa FL USA
| | - David J. Civitello
- Department of Integrative Biology University of South Florida Tampa FL USA
| | | | | | - Jason R. Rohr
- Department of Integrative Biology University of South Florida Tampa FL USA
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Tran A, Trevennec C, Lutwama J, Sserugga J, Gély M, Pittiglio C, Pinto J, Chevalier V. Development and Assessment of a Geographic Knowledge-Based Model for Mapping Suitable Areas for Rift Valley Fever Transmission in Eastern Africa. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2016; 10:e0004999. [PMID: 27631374 PMCID: PMC5025187 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004999] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/01/2016] [Accepted: 08/22/2016] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Rift Valley fever (RVF), a mosquito-borne disease affecting ruminants and humans, is one of the most important viral zoonoses in Africa. The objective of the present study was to develop a geographic knowledge-based method to map the areas suitable for RVF amplification and RVF spread in four East African countries, namely, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and Ethiopia, and to assess the predictive accuracy of the model using livestock outbreak data from Kenya and Tanzania. Risk factors and their relative importance regarding RVF amplification and spread were identified from a literature review. A numerical weight was calculated for each risk factor using an analytical hierarchy process. The corresponding geographic data were collected, standardized and combined based on a weighted linear combination to produce maps of the suitability for RVF transmission. The accuracy of the resulting maps was assessed using RVF outbreak locations in livestock reported in Kenya and Tanzania between 1998 and 2012 and the ROC curve analysis. Our results confirmed the capacity of the geographic information system-based multi-criteria evaluation method to synthesize available scientific knowledge and to accurately map (AUC = 0.786; 95% CI [0.730-0.842]) the spatial heterogeneity of RVF suitability in East Africa. This approach provides users with a straightforward and easy update of the maps according to data availability or the further development of scientific knowledge.
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Affiliation(s)
- Annelise Tran
- CIRAD, UPR AGIRs, Ste-Clotilde, Reunion Island
- CIRAD, UMR TETIS, Ste-Clotilde, Reunion Island
| | - Carlène Trevennec
- Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy
| | | | - Joseph Sserugga
- Uganda Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries, Entebbe, Uganda
| | | | - Claudia Pittiglio
- Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy
| | - Julio Pinto
- Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy
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Mbaika S, Lutomiah J, Chepkorir E, Mulwa F, Khayeka-Wandabwa C, Tigoi C, Oyoo-Okoth E, Mutisya J, Ng'ang'a Z, Sang R. Vector competence of Aedes aegypti in transmitting Chikungunya virus: effects and implications of extrinsic incubation temperature on dissemination and infection rates. Virol J 2016; 13:114. [PMID: 27357190 PMCID: PMC4928303 DOI: 10.1186/s12985-016-0566-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/13/2016] [Accepted: 06/20/2016] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Aedes aegypti is a competent arthropod vector of chikungunya virus (CHIKV). The rate at which the virus disseminate in the vector is limited by temperature of their environment which can be an important determinant of geographical and seasonal limits to transmission by the arthropods in the tropics. This study investigated the vector competence of Ae. aegypti for CHIKV at ambient temperature of 32 and 26 °C (Coastal and Western Kenya respectively) reared at Extrinsic Incubation Temperature (EIT) of 32 and 26 °C that resembles those in the two regions. Methods Ae. aegypti eggs were collected from coastal and Western Kenya, hatched in the insectary and reared to F1 generation. Four-day old mosquitoes were exposed to CHIKV through a membrane feeding. They were then incubated in temperatures mimicking the mean annual temperatures for Trans-Nzoia (26 °C) and Lamu (32 °C). After every 7, 10 and 13 days post infection (DPI); one third of exposed mosquitoes were sampled and assayed for virus infection and dissemination. Results The midgut infection rates (MIR) of Ae. aegypti sampled from Coastal Region was significantly (p < 0.05) higher than those sampled from Western Kenya, with no statistical differences observed for the coastal Ae. aegypti at EIT 26 and at 32 °C. The MIR of Ae. aegypti from the Western Region was significantly (p < 0.05) affected by the EIT, with mosquito reared at EIT 32 °C exhibiting higher MIR than those reared at EIT 26 °C. There was a significant (p < 0.05) interactive effects of the region, EIT and DPI on MIR. The disseminated infection rates for the CHIKV in Ae. aegypti in the legs (DIR-L) was higher in mosquitoes sampled from Coast regardless of the EIT while those from Western Kenya, dissemination rates were significantly higher at higher EIT of 32 °C. Conclusions Vector competence was higher in mosquito populations reared under high temperatures which weakens the midgut infection barrier. Hence, suggesting Lamu population is more susceptible to CHIKV therefore having a weaker mid gut infection barrier than the Trans Nzoia population. These underscores importance of examining the course of infection at various ambient temperatures and EIT between regions mosquito populations. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12985-016-0566-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sophiah Mbaika
- Institute of Tropical Medicine and Infectious Diseases (ITROMID), Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology (JKUAT), P.O. Box 62000-00200, Nairobi, Kenya.
| | - Joel Lutomiah
- Centre for Virus Research (CVR), Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI), P.O. Box 54628-00200, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Edith Chepkorir
- International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology (ICIPE), P.O. Box 30772-00100, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Francis Mulwa
- International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology (ICIPE), P.O. Box 30772-00100, Nairobi, Kenya
| | | | - Caroline Tigoi
- International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology (ICIPE), P.O. Box 30772-00100, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Elijah Oyoo-Okoth
- Department of Natural Resource, School Natural Resources and Environmental Studies, Karatina University, P.O Box 1957-10101, Karatina, Kenya
| | - James Mutisya
- Centre for Virus Research (CVR), Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI), P.O. Box 54628-00200, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Zipporah Ng'ang'a
- Institute of Tropical Medicine and Infectious Diseases (ITROMID), Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology (JKUAT), P.O. Box 62000-00200, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Rosemary Sang
- Centre for Virus Research (CVR), Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI), P.O. Box 54628-00200, Nairobi, Kenya.,International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology (ICIPE), P.O. Box 30772-00100, Nairobi, Kenya
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Métras R, Cavalerie L, Dommergues L, Mérot P, Edmunds WJ, Keeling MJ, Cêtre-Sossah C, Cardinale E. The Epidemiology of Rift Valley Fever in Mayotte: Insights and Perspectives from 11 Years of Data. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2016; 10:e0004783. [PMID: 27331402 PMCID: PMC4917248 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004783] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/29/2016] [Accepted: 05/27/2016] [Indexed: 12/27/2022] Open
Abstract
Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic arboviral disease that is a threat to human health, animal health and production, mainly in Sub-Saharan Africa. RVF virus dynamics have been poorly studied due to data scarcity. On the island of Mayotte in the Indian Ocean, off the Southeastern African coast, RVF has been present since at least 2004. Several retrospective and prospective serological surveys in livestock have been conducted over eleven years (2004-15). These data are collated and presented here. Temporal patterns of seroprevalence were plotted against time, as well as age-stratified seroprevalence. Results suggest that RVF was already present in 2004-07. An epidemic occurred between 2008 and 2010, with IgG and IgM peak annual prevalences of 36% in 2008-09 (N = 142, n = 51, 95% CI [17-55]) and 41% (N = 96, n = 39, 95% CI [25-56]), respectively. The virus seems to be circulating at a low level since 2011, causing few new infections. In 2015, about 95% of the livestock population was susceptible (IgG annual prevalence was 6% (N = 584, n = 29, 95% CI [3-10])). Monthly rainfall varied a lot (2-540mm), whilst average temperature remained high with little variation (about 25-30°C). This large dataset collected on an insular territory for more than 10 years, suggesting a past epidemic and a current inter-epidemic period, represents a unique opportunity to study RVF dynamics. Further data collection and modelling work may be used to test different scenarios of animal imports and rainfall pattern that could explain the observed epidemiological pattern and estimate the likelihood of a potential re-emergence.
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Affiliation(s)
- Raphaëlle Métras
- Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Lisa Cavalerie
- UMR CMAEE, CIRAD, Sainte-Clotilde, La Réunion, France
- UMR1309 CMAEE, INRA, Montpellier, France
- Bureau de la Santé Animale, Direction Générale de l’Alimentation, Paris, France
- Université de La Réunion, St Denis, France
| | - Laure Dommergues
- GDS Mayotte-Coopérative Agricole des Eleveurs Mahorais, Coconi, Mayotte, France
| | - Philippe Mérot
- Direction de l’Alimentation, de l’Agriculture et de la Forêt de Mayotte, Mamoudzou, France
| | - W. John Edmunds
- Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Matt J. Keeling
- WIDER, Warwick University, Coventry, United Kingdom
- Life Sciences, Warwick University, Coventry, United Kingdom
- Mathematics Institute, Warwick University, Coventry, United Kingdom
| | - Catherine Cêtre-Sossah
- UMR CMAEE, CIRAD, Sainte-Clotilde, La Réunion, France
- UMR1309 CMAEE, INRA, Montpellier, France
| | - Eric Cardinale
- UMR CMAEE, CIRAD, Sainte-Clotilde, La Réunion, France
- UMR1309 CMAEE, INRA, Montpellier, France
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Abstract
Knowledge of how climate change is likely to influence future virus disease epidemics in cultivated plants and natural vegetation is of great importance to both global food security and natural ecosystems. However, obtaining such knowledge is hampered by the complex effects of climate alterations on the behavior of diverse types of vectors and the ease by which previously unknown viruses can emerge. A review written in 2011 provided a comprehensive analysis of available data on the effects of climate change on virus disease epidemics worldwide. This review summarizes its findings and those of two earlier climate change reviews and focuses on describing research published on the subject since 2011. It describes the likely effects of the full range of direct and indirect climate change parameters on hosts, viruses and vectors, virus control prospects, and the many information gaps and deficiencies. Recently, there has been encouraging progress in understanding the likely effects of some climate change parameters, especially over the effects of elevated CO2, temperature, and rainfall-related parameters, upon a small number of important plant viruses and several key insect vectors, especially aphids. However, much more research needs to be done to prepare for an era of (i) increasingly severe virus epidemics and (ii) increasing difficulties in controlling them, so as to mitigate their detrimental effects on future global food security and plant biodiversity.
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Affiliation(s)
- R A C Jones
- Institute of Agriculture, University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA, Australia; Department of Agriculture and Food Western Australia, South Perth, WA, Australia.
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