Mortality amongst patients with influenza-associated severe acute respiratory illness, South Africa, 2009-2013

Incidence of influenza virus-associated Severe Acute Respiratory Infections in three districts in 2018 at Gharbia governorate, Egypt

AIMS

Influenza remains a contributor to substantial global morbidity and mortality. There is very limited data on disease burden in Egypt. The purpose of this study was to estimate the incidence of influenza-associated Severe Acute Respiratory Illness (SARI) in three districts in Gharbia governorate in 2018.

METHODS

This study Followed the World Health Organization (WHO) manual for estimating disease burden associated with seasonal influenza. The hospital admission database was screened for SARI patients in three districts at Gharbia governorate in 2018. A hospital admission survey (HAS) was used to define the catchment population. The incidence rate estimation was computed as the number of influenza-positive SARI cases per 100,000 population.

RESULTS

A total of 180 SARI cases were identified in the catchment area. The median age was 23 years [IQR: 2-53], and 45% were males. Out of the total SARI cases, 33.3% influenza was confirmed by the laboratory test of RP-PCR. Influenza A(H3N2) virus predominated representing 55.0% of patients, thanA(H1N1) 26.7% and Flu-B virus 18.3%. Influenza prevailed in winter and spring; no deaths from influenza were reported. The annual incidence of influenza-associated SARIs found higher in <2 years (282 /100,000) and ≥65 years patients (215/100,000) at significant level p<0.001.

CONCLUSION

The WHO Manual for estimating disease burden associated with seasonal influenza was successfully operationalized in the three districts of Gharbia governorate. It can be used in other districts. A considerable burden was associated with influenza viruses requiring hospitalization, especially among the older adult group.

Bioinformatics and system biology approach to identify the influences among COVID-19, influenza, and HIV on the regulation of gene expression

Background

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, has emerged as a infectious disease, coexisting with widespread seasonal and sporadic influenza epidemics globally. Individuals living with HIV, characterized by compromised immune systems, face an elevated risk of severe outcomes and increased mortality when affected by COVID-19. Despite this connection, the molecular intricacies linking COVID-19, influenza, and HIV remain unclear. Our research endeavors to elucidate the shared pathways and molecular markers in individuals with HIV concurrently infected with COVID-19 and influenza. Furthermore, we aim to identify potential medications that may prove beneficial in managing these three interconnected illnesses.

Methods

Sequencing data for COVID-19 (GSE157103), influenza (GSE185576), and HIV (GSE195434) were retrieved from the GEO database. Commonly expressed differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were identified across the three datasets, followed by immune infiltration analysis and diagnostic ROC analysis on the DEGs. Functional enrichment analysis was performed using GO/KEGG and Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA). Hub genes were screened through a Protein-Protein Interaction networks (PPIs) analysis among DEGs. Analysis of miRNAs, transcription factors, drug chemicals, diseases, and RNA-binding proteins was conducted based on the identified hub genes. Finally, quantitative PCR (qPCR) expression verification was undertaken for selected hub genes.

Results

The analysis of the three datasets revealed a total of 22 shared DEGs, with the majority exhibiting an area under the curve value exceeding 0.7. Functional enrichment analysis with GO/KEGG and GSEA primarily highlighted signaling pathways associated with ribosomes and tumors. The ten identified hub genes included IFI44L, IFI44, RSAD2, ISG15, IFIT3, OAS1, EIF2AK2, IFI27, OASL, and EPSTI1. Additionally, five crucial miRNAs (hsa-miR-8060, hsa-miR-6890-5p, hsa-miR-5003-3p, hsa-miR-6893-3p, and hsa-miR-6069), five essential transcription factors (CREB1, CEBPB, EGR1, EP300, and IRF1), and the top ten significant drug chemicals (estradiol, progesterone, tretinoin, calcitriol, fluorouracil, methotrexate, lipopolysaccharide, valproic acid, silicon dioxide, cyclosporine) were identified.

Conclusion

This research provides valuable insights into shared molecular targets, signaling pathways, drug chemicals, and potential biomarkers for individuals facing the complex intersection of COVID-19, influenza, and HIV. These findings hold promise for enhancing the precision of diagnosis and treatment for individuals with HIV co-infected with COVID-19 and influenza.

Characterizing deaths among adult patients with severe acute respiratory infection: during the pre- and COVID-19 pandemic periods in Bangladesh, 2018-2022

BACKGROUND

Severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) is a leading cause of mortality globally, peaking during the COVID-19 pandemic. We analyzed SARI-associated deaths during the pre-and-pandemic periods in Bangladesh to identify the contributing factors.

METHODS

We analyzed data from hospital-based influenza surveillance at nine tertiary-level hospitals in Bangladesh. We considered March 2018-February 2020 as the pre-pandemic period and March 2020-February 2022 as the pandemic period and included adult (≥ 18 years) participants in our study. Surveillance physicians identified WHO-SARI case definition meeting inpatients and collected demographics, clinical characteristics, and outcomes at hospital discharge and 30 days post-discharge. We performed rRT-PCR for influenza and SARS-CoV-2 viruses on collected nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs. We used multivariable Cox's regression models to calculate the hazard ratio (HR) for factors associated with SARI deaths in these adult patients.

RESULTS

We enrolled 4392 SARI patients during the pre-pandemic and 3824 SARI patients during the pandemic period. Case fatality ratio was higher during the pandemic: 13.62% (521) [in-hospital: 6.45% (247); post-discharge: 7.17% (274)] compared to pre-pandemic, 6.01% (264) [in-hospital: 2.01% (89), post-discharge: 4% (175)] (p < 0.001). Pre-pandemic, influenza was detected in 14% (37/264) of SARI deaths. Influenza was detected during the pandemic in 2.3% (12/521), SARS-CoV-2 in 41.8% (218/521), and both viruses in only one SARI death. History of smoking and the presence of 1 or more co-morbid conditions independently attributed to SARI deaths in adults in the pre-pandemic period. SARI deaths in such patients were also associated with respiratory difficulties on admission in both pre-pandemic (aHR 2.36; 95% CI:1.65-3.36) and pandemic period (aHR 2.30; 95% CI: 1.57-3.35) after accounting for age, sex, smoking status, presence of 1 or more co-morbid conditions, and detection of influenza and SARS-CoV-2 viruses.

CONCLUSIONS

During the pandemic, SARI mortality increased; influenza-associated mortality declined, and SARS-CoV-2 caused over a third of SARI deaths. Post-discharge mortality was higher than in-hospital mortality during both periods. Limiting premature discharge and strengthening post-discharge monitoring and nursing services could reduce unexpected deaths. Formative research to better understand post-discharge mortality is essential to reduce SARI deaths.

Healthcare utilization during the first two waves of the COVID-19 epidemic in South Africa: A cross-sectional household survey

Healthcare utilization surveys contextualize facility-based surveillance data for burden estimates. We describe healthcare utilization in the catchment areas for sentinel site healthcare facilities during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. We conducted a cross-sectional healthcare utilization survey in households in three communities from three provinces (KwaZulu-Natal, Western Cape and North West). Field workers administered structured questionnaires electronically with the household members reporting influenza-like illness (ILI) in the past 30 days or severe respiratory illness (SRI) since March 2020. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with healthcare utilization among individuals that reported illness. From November 2020 through April 2021, we enrolled 5804 households and 23,003 individuals. Any respiratory illness was reported by 1.6% of individuals; 0.7% reported ILI only, 0.8% reported SRI only, and 0.1% reported both ILI and SRI. Any form of medical care was sought by 40.8% (95% CI 32.9% - 49.6%) and 71.3% (95% CI 63.2% - 78.6%) of individuals with ILI and SRI, respectively. On multivariable analysis, respiratory illness was more likely to be medically attended for individuals at the Pietermaritzburg site (aOR 3.2, 95% CI 1.1-9.5, compared to Klerksdorp), that were underweight (aOR 11.5, 95% CI 1.5-90.2, compared to normal weight), with underlying illness (aOR 3.2, 95%CI 1.2-8.5), that experienced severe illness (aOR 4.8, 95% CI 1.6-14.3) and those with symptom duration of ≥10 days (aOR 7.9, 95% CI 2.1-30.2, compared to <5 days). Less than half of ILI episodes and only 71% of SRI episodes were medically attended during the first two COVID-19 waves in South Africa. Facility-based data may underestimate disease burden during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The burden of RSV-associated illness in children aged < 5 years, South Africa, 2011 to 2016

BACKGROUND

Vaccines and monoclonal antibodies to protect the very young infant against the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)-associated illness are effective for limited time periods. We aimed to estimate age-specific burden to guide implementation strategies and cost-effectiveness analyses.

METHODS

We combined case-based surveillance and ecological data to generate a national estimate of the burden of RSV-associated acute respiratory illness (ARI) and severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) in South African children aged < 5 years (2011-2016), including adjustment for attributable fraction. We estimated the RSV burden by month of life in the < 1-year age group, by 3-month intervals until 2 years, and then 12 monthly intervals to < 5 years for medically and non-medically attended illness.

RESULTS

We estimated a mean annual total (medically and non-medically attended) of 264,112 (95% confidence interval (CI) 134,357-437,187) cases of RSV-associated ARI and 96,220 (95% CI 66,470-132,844) cases of RSV-associated SARI (4.7% and 1.7% of the population aged < 5 years, respectively). RSV-associated ARI incidence was highest in 2-month-old infants (18,361/100,000 population, 95% CI 9336-28,466). The highest incidence of RSV-associated SARI was in the < 1-month age group 14,674/100,000 (95% CI 11,175-19,645). RSV-associated deaths were highest in the first and second month of life (110.8 (95% CI 74.8-144.5) and 111.3 (86.0-135.8), respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Due to the high burden of RSV-associated illness, specifically SARI cases in young infants, maternal vaccination and monoclonal antibody products delivered at birth could prevent significant RSV-associated disease burden.

COVID-19 severity and in-hospital mortality in an area with high HIV prevalence

Background

HIV infection causes immune dysregulation affecting T-cell and monocyte function, which may alter coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pathophysiology.

Objectives

We investigated the associations among clinical phenotypes, laboratory biomarkers, and hospitalisation outcomes in a cohort of people hospitalised with COVID-19 in a high HIV prevalence area.

Method

We conducted a prospective observational cohort study in Tshwane, South Africa. Respiratory disease severity was quantified using the respiratory oxygenation score. Analysed biomarkers included inflammatory and coagulation biomarkers, CD4 T-cell counts, and HIV-1 viral loads (HIVVL).

Results

The analysis included 558 patients, of whom 21.7% died during admission. The mean age was 54 years. A total of 82 participants were HIV-positive. People living with HIV (PLWH) were younger (mean age 46 years) than HIV-negative people; most were on antiretroviral treatment with a suppressed HIVVL (72%) and the median CD4 count was 159 (interquartile range: 66-397) cells/µL. After adjusting for age, HIV was not associated with increased risk of mortality during hospitalisation (age-adjusted hazard ratio = 1.1, 95% confidence interval: 0.6-2.0). Inflammatory biomarker levels were similar in PLWH and HIV-negative patients. Detectable HIVVL was associated with less severe respiratory disease. In PLWH, mortality was associated with higher levels of inflammatory biomarkers. Opportunistic infections, and other risk factors for severe COVID-19, were common in PLWH who died.

Conclusion

PLWH were not at increased risk of mortality and those with detectable HIVVL had less severe respiratory disease than those with suppressed HIVVL.

What this study adds

This study advances our understanding of severe COVID-19 in PLWH.

Explorative study regarding influenza vaccine hesitancy among HIV-infected patients

There are scarce data regarding influenza vaccination among people with HIV infection (PWHIV). The goal of this explorative study is to assess hesitancy toward influenza vaccination in a group of PWHIV during the COVID-19 pandemic. A questionnaire was administered to 219 patients vaccinated at our clinic during the 2020–2021 campaign. It evaluated subjects’ adherence to influenza vaccine over the last three seasonal vaccination campaigns, vaccine confidence, complacency and convenience, and the effect of the pandemic on the choice to become vaccinated. The population was divided into two groups: fully adherent to influenza vaccine (all three campaigns, 117 patients) and non-fully adherent (one or two campaigns, 102 patients). Adherence increased in the non-fully adherent group in 2020–2021, but the pandemic did not affect the choice. Misbeliefs emerged: the influenza vaccine was considered protective against SARS-CoV-2 (22.8% of the total population); almost half of all patients thought the influenza vaccine could improve their CD4 T cell level (57.3% in fully adherent, 40.2% in non-fully adherent, p < .05). In 2020–2021 campaign, three quarters of the non-fully adherent group would not have been vaccinated in a location other than our clinic (75.5% vs. 88.9% in the fully adherent group, p < .05). Conclusively, offering a secure and private space for vaccination against influenza seems to encourage vaccination; healthcare professionals should improve counseling to increase adherence and correct misbeliefs.

High seroprotection rates and geometric mean titre increases after repeated annual influenza vaccinations in a cohort of HIV-infected adults in Austria

INTRODUCTION

Vaccination against seasonal influenza is recommended for all HIV-infected persons. Few data have been reported on the effect of repeated annual vaccination in this population.

METHODS

We measured haemagglutination inhibition antibody responses and investigated seroprotection rates in 344 HIV-infected adults before and 12 weeks after influenza vaccination with a trivalent subunit vaccine.

RESULTS

68.3% of patients were male, the median age was 45 years. 83.7% had a viral load < 50 copies/mL. The median CD4 count was 604/µL. 304 patients (88.4%) had received influenza vaccinations in previous years. Seroprotection rates for A/H1N1 and B were over 90% in all age groups before vaccination and close to 100% after vaccination. For A/H3N2, seroprotection rates were lowest in individuals below 30 years both before and after vaccination (22.2% and 50.0%) and higher in older age groups (48.4% and 83.9% in people over 60 years). GMT fold increases were not significantly different across the age groups (3.0 to 4.2, p = 0.425). Previous influenza vaccinations were associated with higher seroprotection rates before and after vaccination (62.2% and 84.2% in patients with 8 or more previous vaccinations vs. 15.0% and 57.5% without previous vaccinations, respectively). Individuals with detectable viral load, elevated immune activation (urine neopterin ≥ 250 µmol/mol creatinine), and higher CD4 nadir (≥200 cells/µL) showed a trend towards inferior immune responses to vaccination, whereas gender and CD4 count did not have an effect.

CONCLUSION

The lower seroprotection rates observed in younger individuals may be explained by the higher proportion of patients without HIV treatment and with fewer previous encounters with influenza strains. Good seroprotection rates can be achieved in elderly HIV-infected patients and after repeated annual vaccinations.

Severe acute respiratory illness surveillance for influenza in Kenya: Patient characteristics and lessons learnt

Background

We describe the epidemiology and clinical features of Kenyan patients hospitalized with laboratory‐confirmed influenza compared with those testing negative and discuss the potential contribution of severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) surveillance in monitoring a broader range of respiratory pathogens.

Methods

We described demographic and clinical characteristics of SARI cases among children (<18 years) and adults, separately. We compared disease severity (clinical features and treatment) of hospitalized influenza positive versus negative cases and explored independent predictors of death among SARI cases using a multivariable logistic regression model.

Results

From January 2014 to December 2018, 11,166 persons were hospitalized with SARI and overall positivity for influenza was ~10%. There were 10,742 (96%) children (<18 years)—median age of 1 year, interquartile range (IQR = 6 months, 2 years). Only 424 (4%) of the SARI cases were adults (≥18 years), with median age of 38 years (IQR 28 years, 52 years). There was no difference in disease severity comparing influenza positive and negative cases among children. Children hospitalized with SARI who had an underlying illness had greater odds of in‐hospital death compared with those without (adjusted odds ratio 2.11 95% CI 1.09–4.07). No further analysis was done among adults due to the small sample size.

Conclusion

Kenya's sentinel surveillance for SARI mainly captures data on younger children. Hospital‐based platforms designed to monitor influenza viruses and associated disease burden may be adapted and expanded to other respiratory viruses to inform public health interventions. Efforts should be made to capture adults as part of routine respiratory surveillance.

Epidemiology and Molecular Characterization of Seasonal Influenza Viruses in Iraq

The importance of influenza viruses in respiratory infections in the Middle East, including Iraq, has been historically overlooked. Nowadays, with the pandemic of corona virus disease 2019, the importance of prevention from other respiratory diseases, such as seasonal influenza, can be a critical step in the health management system. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the prevalence and seasonal occurrence of influenza viruses in the Iraqi population presented with influenza-like illness (ILI) or severe acute respiratory infection (SARI)within2015-2017. Moreover, this study was conducted to identify the periods with increased influenza transmission for vaccination recommendations in Iraq. In the present study, we presented the cases of infection by influenza A or B viruses. To test influenza virus types A (H1N1 and H3N2) and B, 1,359 throat and nasal swabs were collected from patients with ILI or SARI. Ribonucleic acid was extracted and amplified using a set of primers and probes. The frequency rates of infection were obtained at 1,616 (45%) and 1974 (55%) in females and males, respectively. The mean age of the participants was estimated at 31.71±22.68 with a minimum and maximum ages of 1 month and 96 years, respectively. It was revealed that influenza virus type A was the most predominant with an incidence of 16.2%, followed by type B with 0.33% incidence. It was also found that December was the most prevalent month of being infected by influenza viruses types A and B (30.02% and 0.48%, respectively). Vaccination in September would likely protect the highest number of patients. It was clear that the influenza A virus was predominant over type B. In Iraq, influenza A and B viruses were found in a large percentage of ILI and SARI cases. Additionally, males were reported to be more likely to become infected than females.

The first epidemiological and virological influenza surveillance in the Republic of Guinea revealed the predominance of influenza A/H3N2 and B Victoria viruses

Little is known about respiratory viruses infection in Guinea. Influenza surveillance has not been implemented in Guinea mainly because of the paucity of laboratory infrastructure and capacity. This paper presents the first influenza surveillance data in Guinea.Swabs were obtained from August 2018 through December 2019 at influenza sentinel sites and transported to the Institut National de Santé Publique for testing. Ribonucleic acid was extracted and tested for the presence of influenza A and B by real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Positive samples were further characterised to determine the subtypes and lineages of influenza viruses.A total of 862 swabs were collected and tested. Twenty-three per cent of samples tested positive for influenza A and B viruses. Characterisation of positive specimens identified influenza A/H1N1pmd09 (2.5%), influenza A/H3N2 (57.3%), influenza B/Victoria lineage (36.7%) and 7 (3.5%) influenza B with undetermined lineage. Influenza B virus activity clustered in August through November while influenza A/H3N2 displayed two clusters of activities that appeared in May through August and November through December.For the first time in Guinea, the epidemiology, diversity and period of circulation of influenza viruses were studied. The results indicate the predominance and the periods of activities of influenza B Victoria lineage and influenza A/H3N2 which are important information for preventive strategies. It is warranted to extend the influenza surveillance to other parts of Guinea to better understand the epidemiology of the viruses and monitor the emergence of influenza strains with pandemic potential.

Mortality in children aged <5 years with severe acute respiratory illness in a high HIV-prevalence urban and rural areas of South Africa, 2009-2013

BACKGROUND

Severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) is an important cause of mortality in young children, especially in children living with HIV infection. Disparities in SARI death in children aged <5 years exist in urban and rural areas.

OBJECTIVE

To compare the factors associated with in-hospital death among children aged <5 years hospitalized with SARI in an urban vs. a rural setting in South Africa from 2009-2013.

METHODS

Data were collected from hospitalized children with SARI in one urban and two rural sentinel surveillance hospitals. Nasopharyngeal aspirates were tested for ten respiratory viruses and blood for pneumococcal DNA using polymerase chain reaction. We used multivariable logistic regression to identify patient and clinical characteristics associated with in-hospital death.

RESULTS

From 2009 through 2013, 5,297 children aged <5 years with SARI-associated hospital admission were enrolled; 3,811 (72%) in the urban and 1,486 (28%) in the rural hospitals. In-hospital case-fatality proportion (CFP) was higher in the rural hospitals (6.9%) than the urban hospital (1.3%, p<0.001), and among HIV-infected than the HIV-uninfected children (9.6% vs. 1.6%, p<0.001). In the urban hospital, HIV infection (odds ratio (OR):11.4, 95% confidence interval (CI):5.4-24.1) and presence of any other underlying illness (OR: 3.0, 95% CI: 1.0-9.2) were the only factors independently associated with death. In the rural hospitals, HIV infection (OR: 4.1, 95% CI: 2.3-7.1) and age <1 year (OR: 3.7, 95% CI: 1.9-7.2) were independently associated with death, whereas duration of hospitalization ≥5 days (OR: 0.5, 95% CI: 0.3-0.8) and any respiratory virus detection (OR: 0.4, 95% CI: 0.3-0.8) were negatively associated with death.

CONCLUSION

We found that the case-fatality proportion was substantially higher among children admitted to rural hospitals and HIV infected children with SARI in South Africa. While efforts to prevent and treat HIV infections in children may reduce SARI deaths, further efforts to address health care inequality in rural populations are needed.

Epidemiology and outcome of influenza-associated infections among hospitalized patients with acute respiratory infections, Egypt national surveillance system, 2016-2019

Introduction

Egypt has established different types of surveillance systems to monitor influenza activities, early detect outbreaks, and tailor efficient prevention and control strategies. This is the first study to describe epidemiology and outcome of influenza‐associated infections among hospitalized patients using the National Electronic Disease Surveillance System (NEDSS) data, 2016‐2019.

Methods

Data reported from 284 hospitals all over Egypt were extracted from the NEDSS. Data of hospitalized patients with Acute Respiratory Infections (ARI), 2016‐2019, were included in the analysis. Laboratory testing for influenza by RT‐PCR according to US CDC testing protocol was used to confirm influenza type and subtype.

Results

Overall 46 417 patients hospitalized with ARI were identified, their mean age was 30.9 ± 26 and 52.9% were males. Among 41 512 (89.4%) laboratory‐tested patients, 7167 (17.3%) were positive for one or more types of influenza viruses. Influenza viruses circulated in all ages and throughout the year, with higher rates in winter, late childhood, and middle ages. Mortality from influenza was significantly higher than other causes of ARIs (5.0% vs 3.8%, P < .001), and it was associated with older ages, December‐May, delay in hospital admission, residence in urban and frontier governorates and infection with A/H1N1 virus. The distribution of influenza subtype by time shows alternate pattern between A/H1N1 and H3N2, each subtype peaks every other year with a high peak of A/H1N1 in 2016.

Conclusions

The national Egyptian surveillance succeeded to describe the epidemiology of hospitalized patients with ARIs and influenza in Egypt over time. Surveillance with strain‐specific laboratory testing and annual assessment of associated severity might be useful to guide influenza prevention and control strategies including vaccination and case management.

The dangers of performative scientism as the alternative to anti-scientific policymaking: A critical, preliminary assessment of South Africa's Covid-19 response and its consequences

At the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic South Africa was praised for decisive political leadership based on scientific advice and the strictness of the measures it imposed to limit domestic spread of the virus. This paper critically examines the South African response through two conceptual frameworks. The first frames an optimal policy response as a solution to an intertemporal welfare-optimisation problem. The need for governments to balance epidemiological considerations and public health measures with the negative consequences of non-pharmaceutical interventions to limit transmission is particularly acute in developing countries. The second considers the use of scientific evidence and expertise through the lens of scientism - undue deference to science. The South African government erred towards drastic action in the face of predictions by some scientific advisors of a catastrophe, but initially without a clear, public long-term plan. Its lockdown has caused serious economic and societal harm across a range of measures. But these costs have not been matched by proportional benefits in health system preparedness or, based on evidence three months into the epidemic, a definitive improvement in expected long-term epidemic outcomes. This failure, and the questionably confident basis for the original lockdown decision, has been obscured by the government's performative scientism - a public performance of deference to science - even in the absence of transparent decision-making. One consequence was a slower correction of strategy than merited by evidence of limited benefits and high costs of the lockdown. Another was an unwillingness to admit and explain errors after the fact. The latter, combined with the convincingness of the initial performance undermined the behavioural dimension of policy - leading to beliefs among citizens that confounded efforts by the state to adapt its policy stance through reopening schools, reducing the stringency of clinical guidelines and resuming various economic activities while nevertheless observing basic social distancing precautions.

The epidemiology of seasonal influenza after the 2009 influenza pandemic in Africa: a systematic review

Background

Influenza infection is a serious public health problem that causes an estimated 3 to 5 million cases and 250,000 deaths worldwide every year. The epidemiology of influenza is well-documented in high- and middle-income countries, however minimal effort had been made to understand the epidemiology, burden and seasonality of influenza in Africa. This study aims to assess the state of knowledge of seasonal influenza epidemiology in Africa and identify potential data gaps for policy formulation following the 2009 pandemic.

Method

We reviewed articles from Africa published into four databases namely: MEDLINE (PubMed), Google Scholar, Cochrane Library and Scientific Research Publishing from 2010 to 2019.

Results

We screened titles and abstracts of 2070 studies of which 311 were selected for full content evaluation and 199 studies were considered. Selected articles varied substantially on the basis of the topics they addressed covering the field of influenza surveillance (n=80); influenza risk factors and co-morbidities (n=15); influenza burden (n=37); influenza vaccination (n=40); influenza and other respiratory pathogens (n=22) and influenza diagnosis (n=5).

Conclusion

Significant progress has been made since the last pandemic in understanding the influenza epidemiology in Africa. However, efforts still remain for most countries to have sufficient data to allow countries to prioritize strategies for influenza prevention and control.

Respiratory pathogen diversity and co-infections in rural Zambia

Objectives:

The role of respiratory co-infections in modulating disease severity remains understudied in southern Africa, particularly in rural areas. This study was performed to characterize the spectrum of respiratory pathogens in rural southern Zambia and the prognostic impact of co-infections.

Methods:

Respiratory specimens collected from inpatient and outpatient participants in a viral surveillance program in 2018–2019 were tested for selected viruses and a typical bacteria using the Xpert Xpress Flu/RSV assay and FilmArray Respiratory Panel EZ. Participants were followed for 3–5 weeks to assess their clinical course. Multivariable regression was used to examine the role of co-infections in influencing disease severity.

Results:

A respiratory pathogen was detected in 63.2% of samples from 671 participants who presented with influenza-like illness. Common pathogens identified included influenza virus (18.2% of samples), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) (11.8%), rhinovirus (26.4%), and coronavirus (6.0%). Overall, 6.4% of participants were co-infected with multiple respiratory pathogens. Compared to mono-infections, co-infections were found not to be associated with severe clinical illness either overall (relative risk (RR) 0.72, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.39–1.32) or specifically with influenza virus (RR 0.80, 95% CI 0.14–4.46) or RSV infections (RR 0.44, 95% CI 0.17–1.11).

Conclusions:

Respiratory infections in rural southern Zambia were associated with a wide range of viruses. Respiratory co-infections in this population were not associated with clinical severity.

Outcomes of patients with Severe Acute Respiratory Infections (SARI) admitted to the intensive care unit: results from the Egyptian Surveillance Study 2010-2014

Background

Few data exist about respiratory viral infections in Egyptian patients. Hereby we describe the outcomes of hospitalized Egyptian patients with severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) admitted to the ICU.

Methods

A prospective study in which all hospitalized patients meeting the WHO case definition for SARI and admitted to the ICU, during the period 2010–2014, were enrolled. Samples were tested using RT-PCR for influenza A, B, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), human metapneumovirus (hMPV), parainfluenza virus, adenovirus, bocavirus, enterovirus, and rhinovirus. Data were analyzed to study the clinical features of SARI-ICU patients and which pathogens are related to severe outcomes. Associated comorbidities were evaluated using Charlson Age-Comorbidity Index (CACI).

Results

Out of 1,075 patients with SARI, 219 (20.3%) were admitted to the ICU. The highest rates were reported for RSV (37%). SARI-ICU patients had higher rates of hospital stay, pneumonia, respiratory failure, ARDS, and mortality. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified associated respiratory disorders (p=0.001), radiological abnormalities (p=0.023), and longer hospital stay (p=0.005) as risk factors for severe outcomes.

Conclusions

This surveillance study showed that 20% of hospitalized Egyptian patients with viral SARI needed ICU admission. SARI-ICU patients had higher rates of hospital stay, pneumonia, respiratory failure, ARDS, and mortality. Higher comorbidity index scores, radiological abnormalities, and longer hospital stay are risk factors for severe outcomes in SARI-ICU patients in our locality.

Influenza disease burden among potential target risk groups for immunization in South Africa, 2013-2015

BACKGROUND

Data on influenza burden in risk groups for severe influenza are important to guide targeted influenza immunization, especially in resource limited settings. However, this information is limited overall and in particular in low- and middle-income countries. We sought to assess the mean annual national burden of medically and non-medically attended influenza-associated mild, severe-non-fatal and fatal illness among potential target groups for influenza immunization in South Africa during 2013-2015.

METHODS

We used published mean national annual estimates of mild, severe-non-fatal, and fatal influenza-associated illness in South Africa during 2013-2015 and estimated the number of such illnesses occurring among the following risk groups: (i) children aged 6-59 months; (ii) individuals aged 5-64 years with HIV, and/or pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB), and/or selected underlying medical conditions (UMC); (iii) pregnant women; and (iv) individuals aged ≥65 years. We also estimated the number of individuals among the same risk groups in the population.

RESULTS

During 2013-2015, individuals in the selected risk groups accounted for 45.3% (24,569,328/54,086,144) of the population and 43.5% (4,614,763/10,598,138), 86.8% (111,245/128,173) and 94.5% (10,903/11,536) of the mean annual estimated number of influenza-associated mild, severe-non-fatal and fatal illness episodes, respectively. The rates of influenza-associated illness were highest in children aged 6-59 months (23,983 per 100,000 population) for mild illness, in pregnant women (930 per 100,000 population) for severe-non-fatal illness and in individuals aged ≥65 years (138 per 100,000 population) for fatal illness.

CONCLUSION

Influenza immunization of the selected risk groups has the potential to prevent a substantial number of influenza-associated severe illness. Nonetheless, because of the high number of individuals at risk, South Africa, due to financial resources constrains, may need to further prioritize interventions among risk populations. Cost-burden and cost-effectiveness estimates may assist with further prioritization.

Advances in laboratory assays for detecting human metapneumovirus

Human metapneumovirus (HMPV) is one of the major causes of acute respiratory tract infection (ARI) and shows high morbidity and mortality, particularly in children and immunocompromised patients. Various methods for detecting HMPV have been developed and applied in clinical laboratories. When reviewing the literature, we found that polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based assays have been most frequently and consistently used to detect HMPV. The most commonly used method was multiplex reverse transcriptase-PCR (RT-PCR; 57.4%), followed by real-time RT-PCR (38.3%). Multiplex RT-PCR became the more popular method in 2011-2019 (69.7%), in contrast to 2001-2009 (28.6%). The advent of multiplex PCR in detecting broader viral pathogens in one run and coinfected viruses influenced the change in user preference. Further, newly developed microarray technologies and ionization mass spectrometry were introduced in 2011-2019. Viral culture (including shell vial assays) and fluorescent immunoassays (with or without culture) were once the mainstays. However, the percentage of studies employing culture and fluorescent immunoassays decreased from 21.4% in 2001-2010 to 15.2% in 2011-2019. Meanwhile, the use of PCR-based methods of HMPV detection increased from 78.6% in 2001-2010 to 84.8% in 2011-2019. The increase in PCR-based methods might have occurred because PCR methods demonstrated better diagnostic performance, shorter hands-on and run times, less hazards to laboratory personnel, and more reliable results than traditional methods. When using these assays, it is important to acquire a comprehensive understanding of the principles, advantages, disadvantages, and precautions for data interpretation. In the future, the combination of nanotechnology and advanced genetic platforms such as next-generation sequencing will benefit patients with HMPV infection by facilitating efficient therapeutic intervention. Analytical and clinical validation are required before using new techniques in clinical laboratories.

Etiology, clinical, and epidemiological characteristics of severe respiratory infection in people living with HIV

People living with HIV (PLWH) are more prone to severe respiratory infections. We used the severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) definition to describe the etiology, clinical, and epidemiological characteristics in this population. This was a prospective observational study including PLWH hospitalized with fever and cough. Those with symptom onset up to 10 days were classified as severe acute respiratory infection and 11–30 days as non-severe acute respiratory infection. Blood, urine samples and nasopharyngeal swabs were collected. Data were extracted from patient charts during their hospital stay. Forty-nine patients were included, median CD4 cell count: 80 cells/mm³, median time since HIV diagnosis and hospital admission: 84 months and 80% were antiretroviral therapy exposed. Twenty-seven patients were classified as SARI. Etiology was identified in 69%, 47% were polymicrobial. Respiratory virus (9 SARI vs. 13 non-SARI), bacteria (5 SARI vs. 4 non-SARI), Mycobacterium tuberculosis (6 SARI group vs. 7 non-SARI group), Pneumocystis jirovecii (4 SARI vs. 1 non-SARI), Cryptococcus neoformans (1 SARI vs. 3 non-SARI), and influenza A (1 SARI vs. 2 non-SARI). Dyspnea was statistically more prevalent in SARI (78% vs. 36%, p = 0.011) but the risk of death was higher in the non-SARI (4% vs. 36%, p = 0.0067). In the severely immunocompromised PLWH, severe acute respiratory infection can be caused by multiple pathogens and codetection is a common feature.

An evaluation of the Zambia influenza sentinel surveillance system, 2011-2017

Background

Over the past decade, influenza surveillance has been established in several African countries including Zambia. However, information on the on data quality and reliability of established influenza surveillance systems in Africa are limited. Such information would enable countries to assess the performance of their surveillance systems, identify shortfalls for improvement and provide evidence of data reliability for policy making and public health interventions.

Methods

We used the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines to evaluate the performance of the influenza surveillance system (ISS) in Zambia during 2011–2017 using 9 attributes: (i) data quality and completeness, (ii) timeliness, (iii) representativeness, (iv) flexibility, (v) simplicity, (vi) acceptability, (vii) stability, (viii) utility, and (ix) sustainability. Each attribute was evaluated using pre-defined indicators. For each indicator we obtained the proportion (expressed as percentage) of the outcome of interest over the total. A scale from 1 to 3 was used to provide a score for each attribute as follows: < 60% (as obtained in the calculation above) scored 1 (weak performance); 60–79% scored 2 (moderate performance); ≥80% scored 3 (good performance). An overall score for each attribute and the ISS was obtained by averaging the scores of all evaluated attributes.

Results

The overall mean score for the ISS in Zambia was 2.6. Key strengths of the system were the quality of data generated (score: 2.9), its flexibility (score: 3.0) especially to monitor viral pathogens other than influenza viruses, its simplicity (score: 2.8), acceptability (score: 3.0) and stability (score: 2.6) over the review period and its relatively low cost ($310,000 per annum). Identified weaknesses related mainly to geographic representativeness (score: 2.0), timeliness (score: 2.5), especially in shipment of samples from remote sites, and sustainability (score: 1.0) in the absence of external funds.

Conclusions

The system performed moderately well in our evaluation. Key improvements would include improvements in the timeliness of samples shipments and geographical coverage. However, these improvements would result in increased cost and logistical complexity. The ISSS in Zambia is largely reliant on external funds and the acceptability of maintaining the surveillance system through national funds would require evaluation.

Household Transmission of Seasonal Influenza From HIV-Infected and HIV-Uninfected Individuals in South Africa, 2013-2014

BACKGROUND

We estimated the household secondary infection risk (SIR) and serial interval (SI) for influenza transmission from HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected index cases.

METHODS

Index cases were the first symptomatic person in a household with influenza-like illness, testing influenza positive on real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR). Nasopharyngeal swabs collected from household contacts every 4 days were tested by rRT-PCR. Factors associated with SIR were evaluated using logistic regression.

RESULTS

We enrolled 28 HIV-infected and 57 HIV-uninfected index cases. On multivariable analysis, HIV-infected index cases were less likely to transmit influenza to household contacts (odds ratio [OR] 0.2; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.1-0.6; SIR 16%, 18/113 vs 27%, 59/220). Factors associated with increased SIR included index age group 1-4 years (OR 3.6; 95% CI, 1.2-11.3) and 25-44 years (OR 8.0; 95% CI, 1.8-36.7), and contact age group 1-4 years (OR 3.5; 95% CI, 1.2-10.3) compared to 5-14 years, and sleeping with index case (OR 2.7; 95% CI, 1.3-5.5). HIV infection of index case was not associated with SI.

CONCLUSIONS

HIV-infection was not associated with SI. Increased infectiousness of HIV-infected individuals is likely not an important driver of community influenza transmission.

Impact of Human Immunodeficiency Virus on the Burden and Severity of Influenza Illness in Malawian Adults: A Prospective Cohort and Parallel Case-Control Study

Background

The impact of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection on influenza incidence and severity in adults in sub-Saharan Africa is unclear. Seasonal influenza vaccination is recommended for HIV-infected persons in developed settings but is rarely implemented in Africa.

Methods

We conducted a prospective cohort study to compare the incidence of laboratory-confirmed influenza illness between HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected adults in Blantyre, Malawi. In a parallel case-control study, we explored risk factors for severe influenza presentation of severe (hospitalized) lower respiratory tract infection, and mild influenza (influenza-like illness [ILI]).

Results

The cohort study enrolled 608 adults, of whom 360 (59%) were HIV infected. Between April 2013 and March 2015, 24 of 229 ILI episodes (10.5%) in HIV-infected and 5 of 119 (4.2%) in HIV-uninfected adults were positive for influenza by means of polymerase chain reaction (incidence rate, 46.0 vs 14.5 per 1000 person-years; incidence rate ratio, 2.75; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-7.44; P = .03; adjusted for age, sex, household crowding, and food security). In the case-control study, influenza was identified in 56 of 518 patients (10.8%) with hospitalized lower respiratory tract infection, and 88 or 642 (13.7%) with ILI. The HIV prevalence was 69.6% and 29.6%, respectively, among influenza-positive case patients and controls. HIV was a significant risk factor for severe influenza (odds ratio, 4.98; 95% confidence interval, 2.09-11.88; P < .001; population-attributable fraction, 57%; adjusted for season, sanitation facility, and food security).

Conclusions

HIV is an important risk factor for influenza-associated ILI and severe presentation in this high-HIV prevalence African setting. Targeted influenza vaccination of HIV-infected African adults should be reevaluated, and the optimal mechanism for vaccine introduction in overstretched health systems needs to be determined.

Influenza and tuberculosis co-infection: A systematic review

Introduction

There are limited data on risk of severe disease or outcomes in patients with influenza and pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) co‐infection compared to those with single infection.

Methods

We conducted a systematic review of published literature on the interaction of influenza viruses and PTB. Studies were eligible for inclusion if they presented data on prevalence, disease association, presentation or severity of laboratory‐confirmed influenza among clinically diagnosed or laboratory‐confirmed PTB cases. We searched eight databases from inception until December 2018. Summary characteristics of each study were extracted, and a narrative summary was presented. Cohort or case‐control studies were assessed for potential bias using the Newcastle‐Ottawa scale.

Results

We assessed 5154 abstracts, reviewed 146 manuscripts and included 19 studies fulfilling selection criteria (13 human and six animal). Of seven studies reporting on the possible effect of the underlying PTB disease in patients with influenza, three of four analytical studies reported no association with disease severity of influenza infection in those with PTB, whilst one study reported PTB as a risk factor for influenza‐associated hospitalization.

An association between influenza infection and PTB disease was found in three of five analytical studies; whereas the two other studies reported a high frequency of PTB disease progression and complications among patients with seasonal influenza co‐infection.

Conclusion

Human analytical studies of an association between co‐infection and severe influenza‐ or PTB‐associated disease or increased prevalence of influenza co‐infection in individuals' hospitalized for PTB were not conclusive. Data are limited from large, high‐quality, analytical epidemiological studies with laboratory‐confirmed endpoints.

Quantifying How Different Clinical Presentations, Levels of Severity, and Healthcare Attendance Shape the Burden of Influenza-associated Illness: A Modeling Study From South Africa

BACKGROUND

Burden estimates of medically and nonmedically attended influenza-associated illness across syndromes and levels of severity are lacking.

METHODS

We estimated the national burden of medically and nonmedically attended influenza-associated illness among individuals with different clinical presentations (all-respiratory, all-circulatory, and nonrespiratory/noncirculatory) and levels of severity (mild, fatal, and severe, nonfatal) using a combination of case-based (from laboratory-confirmed influenza surveillance) and ecological studies, as well as data from healthcare utilization surveys in South Africa during 2013-2015. In addition, we compared estimates of medically attended influenza-associated respiratory illness, obtained from case-based and ecological studies. Rates were reported per 100 000 individuals in the population.

RESULTS

The estimated mean annual number of influenza-associated illness episodes was 10 737 847 (19.8% of 54 096 705 inhabitants). Of these episodes, 10 598 138 (98.7%) were mild, 128 173 (1.2%) were severe, nonfatal, and 11 536 (0.1%) were fatal. There were 2 718 140 (25.6%) mild, 56 226 (43.9%) severe, nonfatal, and 4945 (42.8%) medically attended should be after fatal episodes. Influenza-associated respiratory illness accounted for 99.2% (10 576 146) of any mild, 65.5% (83 941) of any severe, nonfatal, and 33.7% (3893) of any fatal illnesses. Ecological and case-based estimates of medically attended, influenza-associated, respiratory mild (rates: ecological, 1778.8, vs case-based, 1703.3; difference, 4.4%), severe, nonfatal (rates: ecological, 88.6, vs case-based, 75.3; difference, 15.0%), and fatal (rates: ecological, 3.8, vs case-based, 3.5; difference, 8.4%) illnesses were similar.

CONCLUSIONS

There was a substantial burden of influenza-associated symptomatic illness, including severe, nonfatal and fatal illnesses, and a large proportion was nonmedically attended. Estimates, including only influenza-associated respiratory illness, substantially underestimated influenza-associated, severe, nonfatal and fatal illnesses. Ecological and case-based estimates were found to be similar for the compared categories.

Case fatality rate and viral aetiologies of acute respiratory tract infections in HIV positive and negative people in Africa: The VARIAFRICA-HIV systematic review and meta-analysis

•

This first meta-analysis compare CFR between HIV(+) and HIV(-) with ARTI in Africa

•

We found higher rate of mortality in HIV(+) people compared to HIV(-)

•

In subgroup analysis, the CFR was higher in HIV + children <5 compared to people >5

•

Viral aetiologies of ARTI were not different between HIV(+) and HIV(-)

Background

To set priorities for efficient control of acute respiratory tract infection (ARTI) in Africa, it is necessary to have accurate estimate of its burden, especially among HIV-infected populations.

Objectives

To compare case fatality rate (CFR) and viral aetiologies of ARTI between HIV-positive and HIV-negative populations in Africa.

Study design

We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Knowledge, Africa Journal Online, and Global Index Medicus to identify studies published from January 2000 to April 2018. Random-effect meta-analysis method was used to assess association (pooled weighted odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI)).

Results

A total of 36 studies (126,526 participants) were included. CFR was significantly higher in patients with HIV than in HIV-negative controls (OR 4.10, 95%CI: 2.63–6.27, I²: 93.7%). The risk was significantly higher among children ≤5 years (OR 5.51, 95%CI 2.83–10.74) compared to people aged >5 years (OR 1.48, 95%CI 1.17–1.89); p = 0.0002. There was no difference between children (15 years) and adults and between regions of Africa. There was no difference for viral respiratory aetiologies (Enterovirus, Adenovirus, Bocavirus, Coronavirus, Metapneumovirus, Parainfluenza, Influenza, and Respiratory Syncytial Virus) of ARTI between HIV-positive and HIV-negative people, except for Rhinovirus where being HIV-negative was associated with Rhinovirus (OR 0.70; 95%CI 0.51–0.97, I²: 63.4%).

Conclusions

This study shows an increased risk of deaths among HIV-infected individuals with ARTI, however with no difference in viral aetiologies compared to HIV-negative individuals in Africa. ARTI deserves more attention from HIV health-care providers for efficient control. Specific strategies are needed for HIV-positive children under 5.

Factors associated with fatal cases of acute respiratory infection (ARI) among hospitalized patients in Guatemala

Background

Acute respiratory infection (ARI) is an important cause of mortality in children and adults. However, studies assessing risk factors for ARI-related deaths in low- and middle-income settings are limited. We describe ARI-related death and associated factors among children aged < 2 years and adults aged ≥18 years hospitalized with ARI in Guatemala.

Methods

We used respiratory illness surveillance data in Guatemala from 2007 to 2013. ARI was defined as evidence of acute infection and ≥ 1 sign/symptom of respiratory disease in hospitalized patients. Clinical, sociodemographic, and follow-up data were gathered. Nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal swabs were collected from patients with ARI and tested for 6 respiratory viruses; urine was collected only from adults with ARI and tested for pneumococcal antigen. Blood cultures and chest radiographs were performed at the physician’s discretion. Radiographs were interpreted per World Health Organization guidelines to classify endpoint pneumonia (i.e. suggestive of bacterial pneumonia). Multivariable logistic regression was used to compare characteristics of patients with fatal cases, including those who died in-hospital or were discharged in a moribund state, with those of patients with non-fatal cases.

Results

Among 4109 ARI cases identified in hospitalized children < 2 years old, 174 (4%) were fatal. Median age at admission was 4 and 6 months for children with fatal and non-fatal cases, respectively. Factors associated with fatality included low weight-for-age, low family income, heart disease, and endpoint pneumonia; breastfeeding and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) detection were negatively associated with fatality. Among 1517 ARI cases identified in hospitalized adults ≥18 years, 181 (12%) episodes were fatal. Median age at admission was 57 years for adults with fatal and non-fatal cases. Low body mass index, male sex, kidney disease, and endpoint pneumonia were significantly more common among patients with fatal versus non-fatal cases.

Conclusions

Our findings highlight some of the factors that must be addressed in order to reduce ARI-related mortality, including promotion of good nutrition, breastfeeding, management and prevention of chronic comorbidities, and poverty reduction. Although no specific pathogen increased risk for death, endpoint pneumonia was significantly associated with fatality, suggesting that the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine could contribute to future reductions in ARI-related mortality.

Vaccination in the Adult Patient Infected with HIV: A Review of Vaccine Efficacy and Immunogenicity

Patients infected with HIV remain at increased risk of mortality and morbidity from diseases that are preventable with vaccines partly due to the persisting immunopathology that results in impaired responses to vaccination despite virologic suppression. Because data on clinical effectiveness in patients who are immunocompromised remain limited, undervaccination of individuals with HIV poses a major concern. Multiple societies have published recommendations on vaccination in individuals infected with HIV. Many of these recommendations are based on extrapolation of data from clinical trials that usually exclude patients with HIV, although there is a growing body of data from patients infected with HIV as well. In this review, we describe the available literature on vaccine response in the adult patient with HIV as measured by immunogenicity or vaccine efficacy.

The Impact of Influenza and Tuberculosis Interaction on Mortality Among Individuals Aged ≥15 Years Hospitalized With Severe Respiratory Illness in South Africa, 2010-2016

Background

Data on the prevalence and impact of influenza–tuberculosis coinfection on clinical outcomes from high–HIV and –tuberculosis burden settings are limited. We explored the impact of influenza and tuberculosis coinfection on mortality among hospitalized adults with lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI).

Methods

We enrolled patients aged ≥15 years admitted with physician-diagnosed LRTI or suspected tuberculosis at 2 hospitals in South Africa from 2010 to 2016. Combined nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs were tested for influenza and 8 other respiratory viruses. Tuberculosis testing of sputum included smear microscopy, culture, and/or Xpert MTB/Rif.

Results

Among 6228 enrolled individuals, 4253 (68%) were tested for both influenza and tuberculosis. Of these, the detection rate was 6% (239/4253) for influenza, 26% (1092/4253) for tuberculosis, and 77% (3113/4053) for HIV. One percent (42/4253) tested positive for both influenza and tuberculosis. On multivariable analysis, among tuberculosis-positive patients, factors independently associated with death were age group ≥65 years compared with 15–24 years (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 3.6; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2–11.0) and influenza coinfection (aOR, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.02–5.2). Among influenza-positive patients, laboratory-confirmed tuberculosis was associated with an increased risk of death (aOR, 4.5; 95% CI, 1.5–13.3). Coinfection with other respiratory viruses was not associated with increased mortality in patients positive for tuberculosis (OR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.4–1.1) or influenza (OR, 1.6; 95% CI, 0.4–5.6).

Conclusions

Tuberculosis coinfection is associated with increased mortality in individuals with influenza, and influenza coinfection is associated with increased mortality in individuals with tuberculosis. These data may inform prioritization of influenza vaccines or antivirals for tuberculosis patients and inform tuberculosis testing guidelines for patients with influenza.

Prioritization of risk groups for influenza vaccination in resource limited settings - A case study from South Africa

BACKGROUND

Due to competing health priorities, low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) may need to prioritize between different influenza vaccine risk groups. Risk group prioritization may differ in LMIC based upon programmatic feasibility, country-specific prevalence of risk conditions and influenza-associated morbidity and mortality.

METHODS

In South Africa, we collected local disease burden data (both published and unpublished) and published vaccine efficacy data in risk groups and healthy adults. We used these data to aid policy makers with risk group prioritization for influenza vaccination. We used the following formula to assess potential vaccine averted disease in each risk group: rate of influenza-associated hospitalization (or death) per 100,000 population * influenza vaccine efficacy (VE). We further estimated the cost per hospital day averted and the cost per year of life saved by influenza vaccination.

RESULTS

Pregnant women, HIV-infected adults, and adults and children with tuberculosis disease had among the highest estimates of hospitalizations averted per 100,000 vaccinated and adults aged 65 years and older had the highest estimated deaths averted per 100,000 vaccinated. However, when assessing both the cost per hospital day averted (range: USD148-1,344) and the cost per year of life saved (range: USD112-1,230); adults and children with TB disease, HIV-infected adults and pregnant women had the lowest cost per outcome averted.

DISCUSSION

An assessment of the potential disease outcomes averted and associated costs may aid policymakers in risk group prioritization for influenza vaccination.

Vitamin A Supplementation during Pregnancy Enhances Pandemic H1N1 Vaccine Response in Mothers, but Enhancement of Transplacental Antibody Transfer May Depend on When Mothers Are Vaccinated during Pregnancy

Background

In the growing embryo, the vitamin A requirement is tightly regulated. Maternal vitamin A deficiency during pregnancy may alter maternal immune function to accommodate the fetus.

Objective

Our primary objective was to determine the effect of oral vitamin A supplementation (VAS) during pregnancy and until 6 mo postpartum on pandemic H1N1-vaccine responses in mothers and their infants at 6 mo of age.

Methods

In this randomized controlled clinical trial, pregnant women (n = 112) during the second trimester (mean ± SD: 14 ± 1 wk) were assigned to receive either an oral dose of 10,000 IU vitamin A or placebo weekly until 6 mo postpartum. During the third trimester, mothers received a single dose of inactivated pandemic H1N1-influenza vaccine. Hemagglutination-inhibition (HAI) titer was measured in cord, infant, and maternal blood samples. Multivariate regressions with adjustments were used for data analysis.

Results

Seventy-six percent of women had low plasma retinol concentrations (<1.05 μmol/L) in their second trimester. VAS of mothers increased vitamin A concentrations in cord blood by 21.4% and in colostrum by 40.7%. At 6 mo postpartum, women in the vitamin A group had 38.7% higher HAI titers and a higher proportion of HAI titer of ≥1:40 of the cutoff compared with the placebo group. A total of 54.5% of infants had an HAI titer ≥1:40 at 6 mo of age, but there was no difference in HAI titer in infants between groups. Overall, HAI in cord blood did not differ between groups, but in the placebo group, cord blood HAI was negatively associated with maternal "vaccination-to-delivery intervals" (rs = -0.401; P = 0.5), and maternal VAS increased cord blood HAI 6-fold if antenatal immunization was administered ≥10 wk before delivery.

Conclusions

In a community with low vitamin A status, weekly maternal VAS during pregnancy and postpartum increases the breast-milk vitamin A concentration and enhances prenatal H1N1-vaccine responses in mothers, but the benefits of maternal VAS in transplacental antibody transfer may depend on the time of gestation when mothers were vaccinated. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00817661.

Epidemiology of influenza in Ethiopia: findings from influenza sentinel surveillance and respiratory infection outbreak investigations, 2009-2015

BACKGROUND

Influenza is an acute viral disease of the respiratory tract which is characterized by fever, headache, myalgia, prostration, coryza, sore throat and cough. Globally, an estimated 3 to 5 million cases of severe influenza illness and 291 243-645 832 seasonal influenza-associated respiratory deaths occur annually. Although recent efforts from some African countries to describe burden of influenza disease and seasonality, these data are missing for the vast majority, including Ethiopia. Ethiopia established influenza sentinel surveillance in 2008 aiming to determine influenza strains circulating in the country and know characteristics, trend and burden of influenza viruses.

METHODS

We used influenza data from sentinel surveillance sites and respiratory disease outbreak investigations from 2009 to 2015 for this analysis. We obtained the data by monitoring patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) at three health-centers, severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) at five hospitals and investigating patients during different respiratory infection outbreaks. Throat-swab specimens in viral transport media were transported to the national reference laboratory within 72 h of collection using a cold-chain system. We extracted viral RNA from throat-swabs and subjected to real-time PCR amplification. We further subtyped and characterized Influenza A-positive specimens using CDC real-time reverse transcription PCR protocol.

RESULTS

A total of 4962 throat-swab samples were collected and 4799 (96.7%) of them were tested. Among them 988 (20.6%) were influenza-positive and of which 349 (35.3%) were seasonal influenza A(H3N2), 321 (32.5%) influenza A(H1N1)pdm2009 and 318 (32.0%) influenza B. Positivity rate was 29.5% in persons 5-14 years followed by 26.4% in 15-44 years, 21.2% in > 44 years and 6.4% in under five children. The highest positivity rate observed in November (37.5%) followed by March (27.6%), December (26.4%), October (24.4%) and January (24.3%) while the lowest positivity rate was in August (7.7%).

CONCLUSION

In Ethiopia, seasonal Influenza A(H3N2), Influenza A(H1N1)pdm2009 and Influenza B viruses were circulating during 2009-2015. Positivity rate and number of cases peaked in November and December. Influenza is one of public health problems in Ethiopia and the need to introduce influenza vaccine and antivirus is important to prevent and treat the disease in future.

Uptake and cost of influenza vaccines in a private health insured South African population

Background

Influenza vaccination is regarded as the most effective form of prevention and is particularly recommended for individuals at increased risk of developing severe influenza. Data on uptake (coverage) and costs in South Africa are limited.

Methods

This study examined influenza vaccination uptake amongst South African private health insurance scheme members. All claims received for services rendered in 2015 were collated at an individual level and the claims related to the provision of influenza vaccines were analysed.

Results

Of the almost 520 000 members, overall 5.0% (95% CI 4.9%; 5.1%) received the influenza vaccine in 2015. Priority risk groups such as pregnant women, older adults and those with a medical condition were significantly more likely to be vaccinated, as were members belonging to insurance schemes that offered a specific influenza vaccine benefit. The average cost of providing the vaccination was R350.

Conclusions

Influenza vaccination coverage was low in this privately insured population. There were more members vaccinated in the priority risk groups. There is an urgent need to implement strategies to increase this coverage in privately insured South Africans.

Overview of three influenza seasons in Georgia, 2014-2017

BACKGROUND

Influenza epidemiological and virologic data from Georgia are limited. We aimed to present Influenza Like Illness (ILI) and Severe Acute Respiratory Infection (SARI) surveillance data and characterize influenza viruses circulating in the country over three influenza seasons.

METHODS

We analyzed sentinel site ILI and SARI data for the 2014-2017 seasons in Georgia. Patients' samples were screened by real-time RT-PCR and influenza viruses isolated were characterized antigenically by haemagglutination inhibition assay and genetically by sequencing of HA and NA genes.

RESULTS

32% (397/1248) of ILI and 29% (581/1997) of SARI patients tested were positive for influenza viruses. In 2014-2015 the median week of influenza detection was week 7/2015 with B/Yamagata lineage viruses dominating (79%); in 2015-2016-week 5/2016 was the median with A/H1N1pdm09 viruses prevailing (83%); and in 2016-2017 a bimodal distribution of influenza activity was observed-the first wave was caused by A/H3N2 (55%) with median week 51/2016 and the second by B/Victoria lineage viruses (45%) with median week 9/2017. For ILI, influenza virus detection was highest in children aged 5-14 years while for SARI patients most were aged >15 years and 27 (4.6%) of 581 SARI cases died during the three seasons. Persons aged 30-64 years had the highest risk of fatal outcome, notably those infected with A/H1N1pdm09 (OR 11.41, CI 3.94-33.04, p<0.001). A/H1N1pdm09 viruses analyzed by gene sequencing fell into genetic groups 6B and 6B.1; A/H3N2 viruses belonged to genetic subclades 3C.3b, 3C.3a, 3C.2a and 3C.2a1; B/Yamagata lineage viruses were of clade 3 and B/Victoria lineage viruses fell in clade1A.

CONCLUSION

In Georgia influenza virus activity occurred mainly from December through March in all seasons, with varying peak weeks and predominating viruses. Around one third of ILI/ SARI cases were associated with influenza caused by antigenically and genetically distinct influenza viruses over the course of the three seasons.

Impact of aging and HIV infection on serologic response to seasonal influenza vaccination

OBJECTIVE

To determine influence of age and HIV infection on influenza vaccine responses.

DESIGN

Evaluate serologic response to seasonal trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) as the immunologic outcome in HIV-infected (HIV⁺) and age-matched HIV negative (HIV⁻) adults.

METHODS

During 2013-2016, 151 virologically controlled HIV⁺ individuals on antiretroviral therapy and 164 HIV⁻ volunteers grouped by age as young (<40 years), middle aged (40-59 years) and old (≥60 years) were administered TIV and investigated for serum antibody response to vaccine antigens.

RESULTS

At prevaccination (T0) titers were in seroprotective range in more than 90% of participants. Antibody titers increased in all participants postvaccination but frequency of classified vaccine responders to individual or all three vaccine antigens at 3-4 weeks was higher in HIV⁻ than HIV⁺ adults with the greatest differences manifesting in the young age group. Of the three vaccine strains in TIV, antibody responses at T2 were weakest against H3N2 with those to H1N1 and B antigens dominating. Among the age groups, the titers for H1N1 and B were lowest in old age, with evidence of an age-associated interaction in HIV⁺ persons with antibody to B antigen.

CONCLUSION

Greater frequencies of vaccine nonresponders are seen in HIV⁺ young compared with HIV⁻ adults and the observed age-associated interaction for B antigen in HIV⁺ persons are supportive of the concept of premature immune senescence in controlled HIV infection. High-potency influenza vaccination recommended for healthy aging could be considered for HIV⁺ adults of all ages.

Guidelines for the vaccination of HIV-infected adolescents and adults in South Africa

No abstract available.

Clinical and epidemiological characterization of influenza virus infections in children with severe acute respiratory infection in Maputo, Mozambique: Results from the implementation of sentinel surveillance, 2014 - 2016

In Sub-Saharan Africa, where burden, impact, and incidence of acute respiratory infections (ARI) are the highest in the world, conversely, the epidemiology of influenza-associated severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) is incompletely known. The aim of this study was to describe the clinical and epidemiological features of influenza-associated SARI in hospitalized children in Maputo city, Mozambique. Nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs were collected from children aged 0-14 years old who met the case definition for SARI in two hospitals in Maputo city after their parents or legal representative consented to participate. A structured questionnaire was used to collect clinical and demographic data. Typing and subtyping of influenza were performed by real-time PCR. From January 2014 to December 2016, a total of 2,007 eligible children were recruited, of whom 1,997 (99.5%) were screened for influenza by real-time PCR. The median age of participants was 16.9 months (IQR: 7.0-38.9 months) and 53.9% (1076/1991) were male. A total of 77 were positive for influenza, yielding a frequency of 3.9% (77/1,991), with the highest frequency being reported in the age group 1-5 years old. Cases of influenza peaked twice each year, during which, its frequency reached up to 60%-80%. Among all influenza confirmed cases, 33.7% (26/77), 35.1% (27/77) and 28.6% (22/77) were typed as influenza A/H3N2, A/H1N1pdm09, and B, respectively. This represents the first report of influenza in urban/sub urban setting in Mozambique and the first evidence of distribution of strains of influenza in the country. Our data showed that frequency of influenza was lower than reported in a rural setting in Mozambique and the frequency of seasonal (A/H1N1pdm09) and (A/H3N2) subtypes were similar in children with SARI.

Attributable Fraction of Influenza Virus Detection to Mild and Severe Respiratory Illnesses in HIV-Infected and HIV-Uninfected Patients, South Africa, 2012-2016

The attributable fraction (AF) of influenza virus detection to illness has not been described for patients in different age groups or with different HIV infection statuses. We compared the age group–specific prevalence of influenza virus infection among patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) or severe acute or chronic respiratory illness (SARI and SCRI, respectively) with that among controls, stratified by HIV serostatus. The overall AF for influenza virus detection to illness was 92.6% for ILI, 87.4% for SARI, and 86.2% for SCRI. Among HIV-uninfected patients, the AF for all syndromes was highest among persons <1 and >65 years of age and lowest among persons 25–44 years of age; this trend was not observed among HIV-infected patients. Overall, influenza viruses when detected in patients with ILI, SARI, or SCRI are likely attributable to illness. This finding is particularly likely among children and the elderly irrespective of HIV serostatus and among HIV-infected persons irrespective of age.

Using a hospital admission survey to estimate the burden of influenza-associated severe acute respiratory infection in one province of Cambodia-methods used and lessons learned

Background

Understanding the burden of influenza‐associated severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) is important for setting national influenza surveillance and vaccine priorities. Estimating influenza‐associated SARI rates requires hospital‐based surveillance data and a population‐based denominator, which can be challenging to determine.

Objectives

We present an application of the World Health Organization's recently developed manual (WHO Manual) including hospital admission survey (HAS) methods for estimating the burden of influenza‐associated SARI, with lessons learned to help others calculate similar estimates.

Methods

Using an existing SARI surveillance platform in Cambodia, we counted influenza‐associated SARI cases during 2015 at one sentinel surveillance site in Svay Rieng Province. We applied WHO Manual‐derived methods to count respiratory hospitalizations at all hospitals within the catchment area, where 95% of the sentinel site case‐patients resided. We used HAS methods to adjust the district‐level population denominator for the sentinel site and calculated the incidence rate of influenza‐associated SARI by dividing the number of influenza‐positive SARI infections by the adjusted population denominator and multiplying by 100 000. We extrapolated the rate to the provincial population to derive a case count for 2015. We evaluated data sources, detailed steps of implementation, and identified lessons learned.

Results

We estimated an adjusted influenza‐associated 2015 SARI rate of 13.5/100 000 persons for the catchment area of Svay Rieng Hospital and 77 influenza‐associated SARI cases in Svay Rieng Province after extrapolation.

Conclusions

Methods detailed in the WHO Manual and operationalized successfully in Cambodia can be used in other settings to estimate rates of influenza‐associated SARI.

The cost-effectiveness of trivalent and quadrivalent influenza vaccination in communities in South Africa, Vietnam and Australia

BACKGROUND

To inform national healthcare authorities whether quadrivalent influenza vaccines (QIVs) provide better value for money than trivalent influenza vaccines (TIVs), we assessed the cost-effectiveness of TIV and QIV in low-and-middle income communities based in South Africa and Vietnam and contrasted these findings with those from a high-income community in Australia.

METHODS

Individual based dynamic simulation models were interfaced with a health economic analysis model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of vaccinating 15% of the population with QIV or TIV in each community over the period 2003-2013. Vaccination was prioritized for HIV-infected individuals, before elderly aged 65+ years and young children. Country or region-specific data on influenza-strain circulation, clinical outcomes and costs were obtained from published sources. The societal perspective was used and outcomes were expressed in International$ (I$) per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained.

RESULTS

When compared with TIV, we found that QIV would provide a greater reduction in influenza-related morbidity in communities in South Africa and Vietnam as compared with Australia. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of QIV versus TIV was estimated at I$4183/QALY in South Africa, I$1505/QALY in Vietnam and I$80,966/QALY in Australia.

CONCLUSIONS

The cost-effectiveness of QIV varied between communities due to differences in influenza epidemiology, comorbidities, and unit costs. Whether TIV or QIV is the most cost-effective alternative heavily depends on influenza B burden among subpopulations targeted forvaccination in addition to country-specific willingness-to-pay thresholds and budgetary impact.

In- and Out-of-hospital Mortality Associated with Seasonal and Pandemic Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Virus in South Africa, 2009-2013

Background

Estimates of influenza- and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)-associated mortality burden are important to guide policy for control. Data are limited on the contribution of out-of-hospital deaths to this mortality.

Methods

We modeled excess mortality attributable to influenza and RSV infection by applying regression models to weekly deaths from national vital statistics from 2009 through 2013, using influenza and RSV laboratory surveillance data as covariates. We fitted separate models for in- and out-of-hospital deaths.

Results

There were 509791 average annual deaths in South Africa, of which 44% (95% confidence interval [CI] 43%-45%) occurred out-of-hospital. Seasonal influenza and RSV all-cause mortality rates were 23.0 (95% CI 11.0-30.6) and 13.2 (95% CI 6.4-33.8) per 100000 population annually (2.3% [95%CI 2.3%-2.4%] and 1.3% [95% CI 1.2%-1.4%] of all deaths respectively). The peak mortality rate was in individuals aged ≥75 years (386.0; 95% CI 176.5-466.3) for influenza and in infants (143.4; 95% CI 0-194.8) for RSV. Overall, 63% (95% CI 62%--65%) of seasonal influenza and 48% (95% CI 47%-49%) of RSV-associated deaths occurred out-of-hospital. Among children aged <5 years, RSV-associated deaths were more likely to occur in-hospital, whereas influenza-associated deaths were more likely to occur out-of-hospital. The mortality rate was 6.7 (95% CI 6.4-33.8) in the first influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 wave in 2009 and 20.9 (95% CI 6.4-33.8) in the second wave in 2011, with 30% (95% CI 29%-32%) of A(H1N1)pdm09-associated deaths in 2009 occurring out-of-hospital.

Discussion

More than 45% of seasonal influenza- and RSV-associated deaths occur out-of-hospital in South Africa. These data suggest that hospital-based studies may substantially underestimate mortality burden.

Estimates of seasonal influenza-associated mortality in Bangladesh, 2010-2012

BACKGROUND

Seasonal influenza-associated mortality estimates help identify the burden of disease and assess the value of public health interventions such as annual influenza immunization. Vital registration is limited in Bangladesh making it difficult to estimate seasonal influenza mortality.

OBJECTIVES

Our study aimed to estimate seasonal influenza-associated mortality rates for 2010-2012 in Bangladesh.

METHODS

We conducted surveillance among hospitalized patients with severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) for persons aged ≥5 years and severe pneumonia for children <5 years in 11 sites across Bangladesh. We defined the catchment areas of these sites and conducted a community survey in 22 randomly selected unions (administrative units) within the catchment areas to identify respiratory deaths. We multiplied the proportion of influenza-positive patients at our surveillance sites by the age-specific number of respiratory deaths identified to estimate seasonal influenza-associated mortality.

RESULTS

Among 4221 surveillance case-patients, 553 (13%) were positive for influenza viruses. Concurrently, we identified 1191 persons who died within 2 weeks of developing an acute respiratory illness within the catchment areas of the surveillance hospitals. In 2010-2011, the estimated influenza-associated mortality rate was 6 (95% CI 4-9) per 100 000 for children <5 years and 41 (95% CI 35-47) per 100 000 for persons >60 years. During 2011-2012, the estimated influenza-associated mortality rate was 13 (95% CI 10-16) per 100 000 among children <5 years and 88 (95% CI 79-98) per 100 000 among persons aged >60 years.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified a substantial burden of influenza-associated deaths in Bangladesh suggesting that the introduction of prevention and control measures including seasonal vaccination should be considered by local public health decision-makers.

Maternal influenza vaccine strategies in Kenya: Which approach would have the greatest impact on disease burden in pregnant women and young infants?

Background

Recent influenza surveillance data from Africa suggest an important burden of influenza-associated morbidity and mortality. In tropical countries where influenza virus transmission may not be confined to a single season alternative strategies for vaccine distribution via antenatal care (ANC) or semiannual campaigns should be considered.

Methods

Using data on monthly influenza disease burden in women of child-bearing age and infants aged 0–5 months in Kenya from 2010–2014, we estimated the number of outcomes (illnesses, medical visits, hospitalizations, and deaths) that occurred and that may have been averted through influenza vaccination of pregnant women using: 1) a year-round immunization strategy through ANC, 2) annual vaccination campaigns, and 3) semiannual vaccination campaigns.

Results

During 2010–2014, influenza resulted in an estimated 279,047 illnesses, 36,276 medical visits, 1612 hospitalizations and 243 deaths in pregnant women and 157,053 illnesses, 65,177 medical visits, 4197 hospitalizations, and 755 deaths in infants aged 0–5 months in Kenya. Depending on the mode of distribution and the vaccine coverage achieved, 12.8–31.4% of influenza-associated disease in pregnant women and 11.6–22.1% in infants aged 0–5 months might have been prevented through maternal influenza immunization. In this model, point estimates for influenza-associated disease averted through maternal vaccination delivered year-round in ANC or semiannually in campaigns were higher than vaccination delivered in a single annual campaign, but confidence intervals overlapped.

Conclusions

Vaccinating pregnant women against influenza can reduce the burden of influenza-associated illness, hospitalization and death in both pregnant women and their young infants. Alternative immunization strategies may avert more influenza-associated disease in countries where influenza virus transmission occurs throughout the year.

Report on eighth WHO meeting on development of influenza vaccines that induce broadly protective and long-lasting immune responses: Chicago, USA, 23-24 August 2016

In August 2016, the World Health Organization (WHO) convened the "Eighth meeting on development of influenza vaccines that induce broadly protective and long-lasting immune responses" to discuss the regulatory requirements and pathways for licensure of next-generation influenza vaccines, and to identify areas where WHO can promote the development of such vaccines. Participants included approximately 120 representatives of academia, the vaccine industry, research and development funders, and regulatory and public health agencies. They reviewed the draft WHO preferred product characteristics (PPCs) of vaccines that could address prioritized unmet public health needs and discussed the challenges facing the development of such vaccines, especially for low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). They defined the data desired by public-health decision makers globally and explored how to support the progression of promising candidates into late-stage clinical trials and for all countries. This report highlights the major discussions of the meeting.

Epidemiology of influenza in West Africa after the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic, 2010-2012

Background

Over the last decade, capacity for influenza surveillance and research in West Africa has strengthened. Data from these surveillance systems showed influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 circulated in West Africa later than in other regions of the continent.

Methods

We contacted 11 West African countries to collect information about their influenza surveillance systems (number of sites, type of surveillance, sampling strategy, populations sampled, case definitions used, number of specimens collected and number of specimens positive for influenza viruses) for the time period January 2010 through December 2012.

Results

Of the 11 countries contacted, 8 responded: Burkina Faso, Cote d’Ivoire, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Sierra Leone and Togo. Countries used standard World Health Organization (WHO) case definitions for influenza-like illness (ILI) and severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) or slight variations thereof. There were 70 surveillance sites: 26 SARI and 44 ILI. Seven countries conducted SARI surveillance and collected 3114 specimens of which 209 (7%) were positive for influenza viruses. Among influenza-positive SARI patients, 132 (63%) were influenza A [68 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, 64 influenza A(H3N2)] and 77 (37%) were influenza B. All eight countries conducted ILI surveillance and collected 20,375 specimens, of which 2278 (11%) were positive for influenza viruses. Among influenza-positive ILI patients, 1431 (63%) were influenza A [820 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, 611 influenza A(H3N2)] and 847 (37%) were influenza B. A majority of SARI and ILI case-patients who tested positive for influenza (72% SARI and 59% ILI) were children aged 0–4 years, as were a majority of those enrolled in surveillance. The seasonality of influenza and the predominant influenza type or subtype varied by country and year.

Conclusions

Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 continued to circulate in West Africa along with influenza A(H3N2) and influenza B during 2010–2012. Although ILI surveillance systems produced a robust number of samples during the study period, more could be done to strengthen surveillance among hospitalized SARI case-patients. Surveillance systems captured young children but lacked data on adults and the elderly. More data on risk groups for severe influenza in West Africa are needed to help shape influenza prevention and clinical management policies and guidelines.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-017-2839-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Influenza-associated mortality in South Africa, 2009-2013: The importance of choices related to influenza infection proxies

Background

Regression modeling methods are commonly used to estimate influenza‐associated mortality using covariates such as laboratory‐confirmed influenza activity in the population as a proxy of influenza incidence.

Objective

We examined the choices of influenza proxies that can be used from influenza laboratory surveillance data and their impact on influenza‐associated mortality estimates.

Method

Semiparametric generalized additive models with a smoothing spline were applied on national mortality data from South Africa and influenza surveillance data as covariates to obtain influenza‐associated mortality estimates from respiratory causes from 2009 to 2013. Proxies examined included alternative ways of expressing influenza laboratory surveillance data such as weekly or yearly proportion or rate of positive samples, using influenza subtypes, or total influenza data and expressing the data as influenza season‐specific or across all seasons.

Result

Based on model fit, weekly proportion and influenza subtype‐specific proxy formulation provided the best fit. The choice of proxies used gave large differences to mortality estimates, but the 95% confidence interval of these estimates overlaps.

Conclusion

Regardless of proxy chosen, mortality estimates produced may be broadly consistent and not statistically significant for public health practice.